:00:00. > :00:13.Tonight, Iraq in chaos, another city seized by insurgents as the national
:00:14. > :00:16.army flees the scene. Why were warnings irregular in order and what
:00:17. > :00:21.can save the region from more of the same. Was it a problem of
:00:22. > :00:28.intervention or disengagment. A long way from this. We won, it's over,
:00:29. > :00:34.America, we brought to democracy to Iraq. As Iraqi rule clapses across a
:00:35. > :00:38.swathe of the north, worries grow that Turkey or Iran might want to
:00:39. > :00:42.intervene. The former secretary-general said he warned it
:00:43. > :00:48.would happen. When I was enjoy for Syria I did indicate that unless we
:00:49. > :00:54.find ways of resolving the Syrian crisis or containing it would spread
:00:55. > :00:57.through the region. Also tonight: Desperately seeking Juncker, we are
:00:58. > :01:03.in search of one of the most talked about men in Europe. No really.
:01:04. > :01:10.Excuse me, can you tell me where Mr Juncker is? Mr Juncker? And... .
:01:11. > :01:15.Snatching defeat from the jaws of, well, why is the English nation so
:01:16. > :01:25.cynical about its chances of victory in the World Cup, we will kick about
:01:26. > :01:28.a few ideas. It is hard to overestimate the
:01:29. > :01:33.danger Iraq is in tonight. A country on the verge of disintegration.
:01:34. > :01:39.Today Tikrit became the second city to fall into the hands of insurgents
:01:40. > :01:43.in two says. Isis a group once rejected by Al-Qaeda for its
:01:44. > :01:46.ferocity assaulted Government buildings and captured military
:01:47. > :01:52.hardware as security forces fled. No-one knows how many have been
:01:53. > :01:57.killed in Tikrit and Mosul, but more than half a million have fled. Why
:01:58. > :02:01.were warnings ignored, what is the ultimate aim of Isis, and how much
:02:02. > :02:03.is western intervention and disengagment to blame for where the
:02:04. > :02:09.country is today. We will be getting reaction from inside Iraq tonight,
:02:10. > :02:14.but first our diplomatic editor on the events.
:02:15. > :02:21.The fortunes of Iraq's Government have gone from bad to worse, with
:02:22. > :02:25.Jihadists taking over major centres, hundreds of thousands of people are
:02:26. > :02:31.fleeing. And more reports today of huge piles of cash seized, enemies
:02:32. > :02:36.beheaded and prisoners freed. There is a lot of concern that Prime
:02:37. > :02:40.Minister Al-Maliki has not led effectively, that he has in effect
:02:41. > :02:43.not had a good relationship as all with the Sunni leadership, he has
:02:44. > :02:47.driven the communities apart. That he needs to rally the army to make a
:02:48. > :02:50.stand and he needs to have a more sensible policy towards the Sunni
:02:51. > :02:57.leadership and the Sunni population of Iraq. Punch drunk at the collapse
:02:58. > :03:01.of security forces in Mosul, Prime Minister Al-Maliki said today it
:03:02. > :03:06.must have been a conspiracy, there was no other way he could explain
:03:07. > :03:15.why some army units had just pulled out. TRANSLATION: I can sincerely
:03:16. > :03:19.say what happened in the province was a conspiracy because Al-Qaeda
:03:20. > :03:23.and Isis forces were outfull inned by our army and the police there.
:03:24. > :03:28.But I wonder what happened and how it happened and why some units
:03:29. > :03:32.collapsed. I know the reasons but today we are not here to apportion
:03:33. > :03:41.blame, but there are questions about who took part and how the operation
:03:42. > :03:54.was carried out, who started the rumours and who ordered it and who
:03:55. > :03:59.caused confusion. Yesterday they circumstanced Kirkuk, and there are
:04:00. > :04:05.reports of fighters in Bayji and Tikrit. They are poised for a move
:04:06. > :04:12.on the Baghdad belt, into places like Abu Ghraib, Taji, and Yusfiyah.
:04:13. > :04:15.In terms of fighting back Government troops have shown themselves
:04:16. > :04:21.incapable, so there could be more reliance on Shia militias raised in
:04:22. > :04:25.Baghdad and Kurdish fighters in the north. The key to resolving this
:04:26. > :04:30.current short-term security problem will be with the Kurds, far more
:04:31. > :04:34.cohesive military, they are fighting on home soil, they trust each other
:04:35. > :04:39.and proven in combat. I think they will be in the forefront of the
:04:40. > :04:42.solution. The Iraqi army are fighting on foreign soil,
:04:43. > :04:46.effectively. They don't have local loyalties, they don't know who the
:04:47. > :04:49.enemy are and who the friendly forces are, they are fighting on
:04:50. > :04:54.alien country I would have little confidence in the Iraqi army's
:04:55. > :04:59.confidence to sort this problem. These pictures show what happened as
:05:00. > :05:06.the Iraqi army fled Mosul. Local people, full of contempt, started
:05:07. > :05:10.stoning them. In recent months, many Sunni Arabs have come to see the
:05:11. > :05:15.Shia-dominated army as an oppressive force. The Jihadist of Isis and
:05:16. > :05:24.other Sunni groups reaped this resentment. They built on resentment
:05:25. > :05:28.about security forces' policies, heavihanded policies, like the
:05:29. > :05:34.tendency to engage in mass arrests when trying to clear out Isis hot
:05:35. > :05:42.spots and we have seen that before all this broke out, with the take
:05:43. > :05:46.over of Mosul, we saw it in south of Baghdad where there have been hot
:05:47. > :05:55.spots of Isis in its predecessor form for at least four years. So
:05:56. > :05:59.they certainly are a constituent in the broader opposition and they have
:06:00. > :06:05.to be taken seriously. Privately policy makers in the capitals of
:06:06. > :06:08.Iraq's former occupiers, the US and UK are furious with Nouri Al-Maliki.
:06:09. > :06:12.They believe he has brought the situation on himself by years of
:06:13. > :06:15.alienating the Sunni community through sectarian politics.
:06:16. > :06:25.Publicly, though, they have no choice but to back him. Many Iraqis
:06:26. > :06:29.blame America's occupation for upsetting the ethnic balance and
:06:30. > :06:33.empowering Prime Minister Al-Maliki. But equally it was the sacrifice of
:06:34. > :06:38.ordinary coalition soldiers that helped reduce the violence almost to
:06:39. > :06:45.zero by the time they withdrew. Washington now watches in alarm. We
:06:46. > :06:51.have seen Al-Qaeda core mat it is a at this size into -- mataicise into
:06:52. > :06:56.core local groups in west and East Africa, and especially mostly in
:06:57. > :07:00.Syria and Iraq, and this group Isis, flooding both the Syrian and Iraqi
:07:01. > :07:07.Government is terrorising the local population. It is making rapidly
:07:08. > :07:10.expanding its influence on the ground, it poses a real threat to
:07:11. > :07:14.Europe and America and the Arab world, so we do have to have, I
:07:15. > :07:21.think, international support for the Iraqi Government, however misguided
:07:22. > :07:24.the Prime Minister of Iraq has been. Militant fighters in Mosul have been
:07:25. > :07:29.celebrating their victory. And they have taken four dozen Turk,
:07:30. > :07:34.including consular officials prisoner. The sudden shift in power
:07:35. > :07:37.towards Isis could trigger Turkish or Iranian intervention and that is
:07:38. > :07:45.creating tension across the Middle East. A little earlier I was joined
:07:46. > :07:52.from Baghdad by an Iraqi associate fellow of Chatham House, and Patrick
:07:53. > :08:03.Osgood a journalist based there. I asked if the Isis insurgence could
:08:04. > :08:10.have been anticipated? What couldn't be anticipated is the Iraqi army
:08:11. > :08:13.fleeing en masse. Many of the fighters belonging to the extremist
:08:14. > :08:18.groups were able to out the forces and they fled in the tens of
:08:19. > :08:22.thousands. The Iraqi army did not attempt to fight back, right?
:08:23. > :08:26.Absolutely, no. For many of the soldiers this simply was a city not
:08:27. > :08:30.worth dying for. They had a hostile relationship with the population,
:08:31. > :08:34.the population saw them more as occupiers, and as enemies, more than
:08:35. > :08:39.the national army. So they didn't want to put up a fight and decided
:08:40. > :08:42.not to die. They left armoured vehicles, they left military
:08:43. > :08:48.hardware, weapons, clearly, do you think that would happen in the case
:08:49. > :08:52.of Baghdad? It is going to be very difficult to see this being repeated
:08:53. > :08:55.in Baghdad, mainly because that is where the central Government's
:08:56. > :09:00.forces are concentrated, and also the central Government in Baghdad is
:09:01. > :09:07.relying more and more on Shia militia, they are Iranian-backed,
:09:08. > :09:11.ideolgical low-driven forces, acting as auxiliary forces for the Iraqi
:09:12. > :09:15.Government. You make Baghdad sound like a very different place to
:09:16. > :09:19.Mosul, I'm wondering what the level of fear is on the ground where you
:09:20. > :09:22.are now? Well, there is a lot of confusion on the ground. I mean the
:09:23. > :09:29.checkpoints here in Baghdad, some tell you there is a curfew imposed
:09:30. > :09:34.at 10.00, a few minutes ago, others saying 12.00. Official Iraqi forces
:09:35. > :09:37.who themselves have no idea what is going on. Do you think they could
:09:38. > :09:40.topple the Government there? Isis don't want to necessarily topple the
:09:41. > :09:45.Government. What they are trying to do is provoke the Shia militias and
:09:46. > :09:48.even ordinary Shias from taking up arms. Why this becomes dangerous is
:09:49. > :09:52.because the Government is calling for this. The Government is opening
:09:53. > :09:56.up recruitment centres in the capital and across the south, it is
:09:57. > :10:00.calling for citizens to arm themselves and it is telling them
:10:01. > :10:06.that they will provide arms. This is exactly what the Jihadists want. If
:10:07. > :10:10.they can industryinger out an all-out Civil War between Sunnis and
:10:11. > :10:15.Shias it will make their lives much easier and give them more room to
:10:16. > :10:19.manoeuvre across the country. We go over to our other guest. Do you feel
:10:20. > :10:27.it is a very different place tonight? Yeah, very much so. Here
:10:28. > :10:33.life goes on, more or less as normal. But it is only 40 minutes
:10:34. > :10:38.away that checkpoints with Mosul are seeing thousands of refugees coming
:10:39. > :10:45.over. It feels very, very different indeed. Increasingly like a
:10:46. > :10:49.different country. You have got the Kurdistan regional Government here
:10:50. > :10:55.in a strange situation where it has found itself having had its Armed
:10:56. > :10:58.Forces derided for some time now having the only functions army by a
:10:59. > :11:03.sanctioned actor in the country. When you say functioning army, you
:11:04. > :11:09.think this would be an army that would stand up and fight if push
:11:10. > :11:15.came to shove? To defend Kurdish territory, to defend Kurdistan,
:11:16. > :11:19.absolutely. I would be surprised to see them at this behest of either
:11:20. > :11:26.the central Government or under international pressure, making any
:11:27. > :11:30.kind of sortie into Mosul. What the dud here from the Kurdistan
:11:31. > :11:34.leadership is they have been warning about something like this for a very
:11:35. > :11:37.long time, and it is falling on deaf ears, both in Baghdad and
:11:38. > :11:43.internationally. They now feel vindicated and they want to get on
:11:44. > :11:47.with the business of building a kind of quasi-nation state, which they
:11:48. > :11:52.are already on the way to doing. If I could go back to you, when you
:11:53. > :11:57.look at Fallujah, Mosul and Tikrit, they are saying what is gone is
:11:58. > :12:01.gone? Yeah, the central Government and Prime Minister Al-Maliki
:12:02. > :12:05.yesterday said Mosul will be retaken in 24 hours, which is laughable
:12:06. > :12:10.given he said initially the campaign is only going to last one week. The
:12:11. > :12:17.Iraqi forces may try to retake the cities, but Mosul is a lot bigger
:12:18. > :12:20.than Fallujah. And what we see there is the city is being besieged from
:12:21. > :12:25.the outside by the central Government forces and they are
:12:26. > :12:30.shelling often indiscriminately and there are many, many civilian
:12:31. > :12:35.casualties. If the Iraqi army does try to do the same thing in Mosul,
:12:36. > :12:39.we will see a much bigger and wider humanitarian crisis. And sources in
:12:40. > :12:43.Mosul tell me that the people of Mosul, and this speaks to how
:12:44. > :12:48.hostile the relationship with the army was, when the army fled and
:12:49. > :12:54.Jihadists entered the city, the people of Mosul were more afraid of
:12:55. > :12:58.Iraqi army retaliations, in terms of air strikes, than they were of the
:12:59. > :13:03.extremist Jihadists themselves. We are looking at dark days ahead of us
:13:04. > :13:09.at least. Some views from inside Iraq, and joining me now from
:13:10. > :13:13.Pittsburgh is Karen Skinner an adviser to George W Bush on the Iraq
:13:14. > :13:18.and Afghan wars, she's now a research fellow at Stamford's Hoover
:13:19. > :13:27.Institution. And we have a former British ambassador to Iraq and
:13:28. > :13:29.Afghanistan. A warm welcome. I wonder how much the west needs to
:13:30. > :13:33.take responsibility for what is happening in Iraq now? Sadly the
:13:34. > :13:39.west bears quite a bit of responsibility and in particular the
:13:40. > :13:42.United States, the country which under George W Bush pushed into Iraq
:13:43. > :13:48.to bring peace and democracy to that country. But also Obama
:13:49. > :13:53.administration, there is enormous immediate responsibility for what is
:13:54. > :13:55.happening on the ground. Because it was senator Barack Obama who
:13:56. > :14:00.campaigned on the promise to get out of Iraq and leave that country whole
:14:01. > :14:06.and free as a democracy, declared it early in his presidency and by the
:14:07. > :14:12.end of 2011 the US left. Nonetheless, sectarian division
:14:13. > :14:17.still existed in that country and then Syria was on its way to Civil
:14:18. > :14:22.War. The US has no serious Middle East policy to speak of beyond
:14:23. > :14:26.exiting wars and repositioning itself towards Asia. It sends a bad
:14:27. > :14:32.message to the Jihadists that are now in power in Mosul. Would you
:14:33. > :14:36.agree with that, it has been said this evening that Bush shouldn't
:14:37. > :14:38.have gone in, Obama shouldn't have come out, that is where the
:14:39. > :14:42.responsibility ultimate low lies? You know reopening the debate about
:14:43. > :14:47.whether or not we should have gone in or not is not very helpful in
:14:48. > :14:50.this context. It is a bit harsh to blame the west, because you have had
:14:51. > :14:59.a full term of a Al-Maliki Government in Baghdad. What we're
:15:00. > :15:03.seeing now is an ailation of Sunni -- alienation of Sunni, I don't
:15:04. > :15:09.think Isis could have had enough force to take Mosul or Tikrit if the
:15:10. > :15:13.Sunnis hadn't been alienated. Why has Al-Maliki been allowed to fail,
:15:14. > :15:15.he was hand-picked by America, billions behind him, the
:15:16. > :15:22.constitution which you helped draft was drawn up for and with him. That
:15:23. > :15:26.is a mistake? Allowed to fail, in a sense, I think we overestimate our
:15:27. > :15:32.power. Iraq was set on a course and it was up to the Iraqis to deliver
:15:33. > :15:36.on their promise, I think there were various opportunities that Al-Maliki
:15:37. > :15:43.failed to bring the Sunnis in. You know when he drove Al-Hashimi out of
:15:44. > :15:49.the country and he alienated the tribes of Ambar and Ramadi. In a
:15:50. > :15:55.sense, it is an Iraqi failure, I don't think you can blame this on
:15:56. > :16:00.Bush or Obama. Yet the relevance of the west is surely when you ask
:16:01. > :16:05.whether Obama should go back in? Whether there should be intervention
:16:06. > :16:10.once more to sort this out? I just disagree some what with your guest
:16:11. > :16:14.and agree with him in part in other ways. Of course this is not fully
:16:15. > :16:18.the failure of the United States and the west, but once we made the
:16:19. > :16:22.commitment to go into Iraq to declare that we were exiting with
:16:23. > :16:27.not a clear pathway for the country forward, I think that was a grave
:16:28. > :16:31.mistake, and it sent a bad message to those who wanted to destroy the
:16:32. > :16:38.country. Also on the Mall side, of course it is a weak Government and
:16:39. > :16:42.power, Mosul's indictment of his ability to control the security
:16:43. > :16:48.force, the national army and just overall run the country. He has
:16:49. > :16:51.slanted in a sectarian way as the leader of the country. But the
:16:52. > :16:56.United States is the most powerful nation on earth. It is nearly 50% of
:16:57. > :17:01.world defence spending, if we don't help our allies often they can't do
:17:02. > :17:06.it alone. That is my core point. What does that mean, help them? Is
:17:07. > :17:11.this a situation that is spelling out to you boots on the ground
:17:12. > :17:18.needed? Well, I think that is a far jump given how the administration
:17:19. > :17:23.has really pulled back in Iraq, that it would go in as it is exiting
:17:24. > :17:28.Afghanistan and facing a crisis around the Taliban, and just a
:17:29. > :17:32.disorientated foreign policy. To ask of the administration a return to
:17:33. > :17:37.Iraq, I think it is a tall order. But a more responsible regional
:17:38. > :17:45.policy that is clearly articulated, that bolsters our allies, like the
:17:46. > :17:52.Turk, I think it makes a big difference in a region that is full
:17:53. > :17:55.of strife and multiple wars going on in several countries all at the same
:17:56. > :17:59.time. This is the question isn't it, from what you have seen and you have
:18:00. > :18:05.served in both countries, does this look regional enough to happen in
:18:06. > :18:08.Afghanistan, are we starting to see this arc? I think it is very
:18:09. > :18:12.different. I think there is an absence of an Obama doctrine, if you
:18:13. > :18:18.like. There is a sense in which there is no clear American policy.
:18:19. > :18:21.There is some indecision. Which is a legacy of the history of our
:18:22. > :18:25.intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan. I think those who are
:18:26. > :18:28.advocating do we have to go in, that would be a big mistake. I don't
:18:29. > :18:34.think our military can always solve these problems. I think the problem
:18:35. > :18:38.is it has to be solved by Iraqis. Do you think this is a joined-up
:18:39. > :18:43.problem. When the west is looking on this region now, do you see this as
:18:44. > :18:47.dangerous? I think this is a very dangerous moment for Iraq, and
:18:48. > :18:55.dangerous moment for us, I think we could see the emergence of a Jihadi
:18:56. > :19:04.extremist eptity in Iraq and Syria. What does eptity mean, a control of
:19:05. > :19:09.a -- eptity mean? A control of a territory where they could plot
:19:10. > :19:21.against the west. There could come a point where we have no choice
:19:22. > :19:23.because our national security is threatenedecause our national
:19:24. > :19:27.security is threatened. Do you see Iran in this entry. I think Iran
:19:28. > :19:38.will provide whatever support they think the Iraqis need. I wonder, in
:19:39. > :19:42.a way it is disenginous to say -- disingenious to say there was a time
:19:43. > :19:48.of peace and it was safe to step back, it has got worse? I think it
:19:49. > :19:56.is an ahistorical point to say democracy and peace had spread
:19:57. > :19:59.through Iraq, because the sectarian violence has historical roots and
:20:00. > :20:03.had nothing to do with what was going on at any one time. The United
:20:04. > :20:07.States und President Obama declared that terrorism represents one of the
:20:08. > :20:10.highest threats to the nation. If that's the case then Iraq becomes a
:20:11. > :20:14.high priority for the administration. It has to explain to
:20:15. > :20:18.the American public and the rest of the world what we are actually going
:20:19. > :20:23.to do, given that in the past two weeks at west point, the President
:20:24. > :20:28.outlined his foreign policy as best he could, where he said that
:20:29. > :20:32.terrorism is something that we will focus on, often unilaterally if
:20:33. > :20:40.necessary. I think it is still an important role for the US to play.
:20:41. > :20:45.Thank you very much. The United Nations has seemed to look on
:20:46. > :20:50.helplessly as events in Iraq spiral out of control, its secretary, Ban
:20:51. > :20:55.Ki-Moon, expressing grave concern about the situation. Earlier on
:20:56. > :21:01.today I spoke to his predecessor, Kofi Anan. We must all feel this is
:21:02. > :21:05.a sad day for the United Nations and international community. He was the
:21:06. > :21:10.man charged with the unenviable job of leading the UN, during one of the
:21:11. > :21:15.most tumultuous periods in modern times. Arguments raged over the
:21:16. > :21:20.invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. He served as the United Nations
:21:21. > :21:26.envoy to Syria during 2012, but resigned, calling it "mission
:21:27. > :21:31.impossible" because of proxy wars being fought during regional powers.
:21:32. > :21:37.More recently he has been working on a report looking at the drug trade,
:21:38. > :21:46.narcotics are produced in South America but traffiked through to
:21:47. > :21:52.reach the US and Europe. The Ugandan Foreign Minister was voted in as the
:21:53. > :21:56.cermonial President. He's a support of the strict antigay law, that
:21:57. > :22:04.authorises life imprisonment for those convicts of having gay sex. I
:22:05. > :22:09.started the interview by asking Kofi Annan what he thought about today's
:22:10. > :22:14.events in Iraq? I have been quite involved in the Middle East for a
:22:15. > :22:19.while. For quite a long time. When I was the enjoy for Syria, I did
:22:20. > :22:25.indicate that unless we found ways of resolving the Syrian crisis, or
:22:26. > :22:31.containing it, it would spread through the region. And now we see a
:22:32. > :22:41.movement that is likely to operate across borders openly, linking Syria
:22:42. > :22:45.and Iraq. With the extremist element trying to establish their own state.
:22:46. > :22:54.You think that could be the beginning of an Islamic kalafait? It
:22:55. > :22:58.depends how we come together to deal with the crisis in the region. The
:22:59. > :23:03.situation cannot be handled by the Iraqis alone, they have asked for
:23:04. > :23:10.help. Just as the Syrians alone cannot handle their crisis. And I
:23:11. > :23:17.believe we need a very effective core group made up of permanent
:23:18. > :23:25.members of the Security Council, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and
:23:26. > :23:29.possibly Egypt. So you need to bring the regional powers together. In
:23:30. > :23:35.other words they would need to work together. I'm not sure there is a
:23:36. > :23:39.stomach for troops on the ground. I don't see any country that will put
:23:40. > :23:45.boots on the ground. What they can do is agree a common approach, make
:23:46. > :23:52.a common purpose and work together to implement the agreement they
:23:53. > :24:09.reach. And undertake not to fund or arm either side. The west came close
:24:10. > :24:13.to military intervention in Syria, are you disappointed that didn't
:24:14. > :24:16.happen? I'm not sure military intervention would have made that
:24:17. > :24:20.much difference. As I said earlier we need to think through these
:24:21. > :24:26.interventions very carefully, in some situations it can make the
:24:27. > :24:29.situation worse. We have seen it in several countries, where military
:24:30. > :24:35.action has not, like Iraq, like Libya. Can I just briefly ask you
:24:36. > :24:41.your thoughts on the possible President of the UN General
:24:42. > :24:47.Assembly? I see why you are asking that question, we really have no
:24:48. > :24:52.right to discriminate the way it is happening in some countries,
:24:53. > :24:59.including Uganda, to the extent of threatening people with death. And
:25:00. > :25:09.so indeed have died. It is something that, which cannot be condoned,
:25:10. > :25:15.should not be accepted and of course I do not expect him to promote those
:25:16. > :25:25.kinds of policies in the General Assembly. He's not going to get
:25:26. > :25:29.anywhere. I see the point you are making, if the UN is going to preach
:25:30. > :25:37.and tell people about human rights and all this, we have to lead by
:25:38. > :25:41.example. Your report from the foundation suggests a real reform is
:25:42. > :25:46.needed on the ways you tackle the west African drug problem,
:25:47. > :25:49.particularly in how you criminalise most aspects of it? That is
:25:50. > :25:55.absolutely correct. We believe that the war on drugs has not worked and
:25:56. > :26:00.we should have the courage to ask the right questions and do something
:26:01. > :26:04.about it. The commission's report believes that we should approach it
:26:05. > :26:11.more from a health point of view, see how we can help the users, but
:26:12. > :26:15.at the same time be very firm and very hard on the big drug barons. Do
:26:16. > :26:19.you believe that the Governments that you are talking to support
:26:20. > :26:25.this, do you believe that the US and the EU would support this level of
:26:26. > :26:29.decriminalisation? Well, initially perhaps not, but at least they
:26:30. > :26:34.should discuss it, and I know that discussion is taking place in the
:26:35. > :26:38.US, it is taking place in Latin America, and it is taking place in
:26:39. > :26:45.some parts of Europe and some countries in Europe have indeed
:26:46. > :26:50.taken action. We are at the beginning so I don't expect
:26:51. > :26:56.overnight changes. But the changes have to come. Waughs Because I
:26:57. > :27:00.really believe that drugs have destroyed many lives, but
:27:01. > :27:06.wrong-headed Governmental policies have destroyed many more.
:27:07. > :27:09.Kofi Annan talking to me from Senegal earlier.
:27:10. > :27:12.To matters here, another big rise in employment, unfall in unemployment
:27:13. > :27:16.and the jobs appear to be well spread across the country. The bad
:27:17. > :27:21.news is average earnings growth has again fallen below inflation. With
:27:22. > :27:30.all the caveats to how we preyed it, here is the -- we break it down. We
:27:31. > :27:34.will come to the caveats in a moment, exceptional growth in
:27:35. > :27:38.employment and the people in work and another big fall in
:27:39. > :27:43.unemployment. That is down to 6. 6%. Put that in context, if you go back
:27:44. > :27:47.to last summer the Bank of England said we won't even consider raising
:27:48. > :27:52.interest rates until unemployment is below 7%. They said we won't expect
:27:53. > :27:58.that to happen until mid-2016. Here we are two years earlier and t down
:27:59. > :28:02.to 6. 6%. It raises a lot of questions. What about average
:28:03. > :28:07.earnings? This is what is seen as the bad news in today's numbers.
:28:08. > :28:11.Since 2009, in general, inflation, price rises, have been ahead of wage
:28:12. > :28:16.growth. Real wage, wages after price rises have been falling for six
:28:17. > :28:19.years. Historically long squeeze in real incomes. Last month for the
:28:20. > :28:23.first time in a few years earnings got back above inflation, much
:28:24. > :28:27.celebration at the time. Today, I'm afraid, they fell back below. This
:28:28. > :28:31.is where we bring in the caveat, we have to be careful. The first rule
:28:32. > :28:35.of looking at any economic theory is don't get too excited by one data
:28:36. > :28:40.point. We all got excited last month and people are getting excited
:28:41. > :28:45.today. Not usually a good idea. Secondly, there are technical issues
:28:46. > :28:49.about pulling down bonus payments. If you dig into the numbers today,
:28:50. > :28:53.if you are the average worker in somewhere like retail, hotels,
:28:54. > :28:57.restaurant, manufacturing, you are seeing real wages rise at the
:28:58. > :29:02.moment. You mentioned interest rates before, what's the impact that
:29:03. > :29:06.today's news will have, will people feel better off or worse off, where
:29:07. > :29:10.is this going? If you look at the forecast, and maybe shouldn't pay
:29:11. > :29:14.too much tension and I tension to them, most forecasts say this year,
:29:15. > :29:20.2014, we should see wage growth of about 2. 5% and inflation a little
:29:21. > :29:25.bit below 2%. We will see real wages rise this year, people feeling
:29:26. > :29:29.better off. 2. 5% wage growth is still historically weak. Ten years
:29:30. > :29:37.before 200 # you expected more like 4%. After the few years we have had,
:29:38. > :29:41.that is good news. Looking at the forecast, barring some unexpected
:29:42. > :29:46.disaster, people will feel better off. But barring a miracle they will
:29:47. > :29:49.still be worse off than 2008, that is an interesting question heading
:29:50. > :29:56.into the election. Do people look at the last year or do they think they
:29:57. > :30:01.are worse off than a few years back. It is an issue that has united right
:30:02. > :30:07.and left, euro-sceptic and file, Labour and the Conservatives, the
:30:08. > :30:11.unsuitable offup Jean-Claude Juncker -- of one Jean-Claude Juncker as
:30:12. > :30:16.head of the European Commission. Today the right-hand man side he was
:30:17. > :30:21.quitting his post and take up a post in London. Where does that leave
:30:22. > :30:33.Juncker's bid and where he is. We were on the trail of the most talked
:30:34. > :30:43.about man in Europe. Where do begin the search for the most illusive man
:30:44. > :30:47.in European politics. Land locked Luxembourg, of course, no I wasn't
:30:48. > :30:51.sure where it is either, but I know now. And Jean-Claude Juncker is the
:30:52. > :31:01.country's best known export, if you are into that sort of thing. Let's
:31:02. > :31:09.locate Mr Juncker, Luxembourg has half a million people in it, it
:31:10. > :31:13.shouldn't be too tricky. Come to think of it, where are all those
:31:14. > :31:28.people? Perhaps it was a mistake to come during a public holiday. Could
:31:29. > :31:31.you tell me where Mr Juncker is? Mr Juncker? Mr Juncker was Prime
:31:32. > :31:38.Minister here for nearly two decades and is still an MP. But no luck at
:31:39. > :31:42.the parliament. Mr Juncker? What about Mr Juncker. Do you know where
:31:43. > :31:50.he is? Where, yeah I know. Where is he? I can't tell you. Why not? We
:31:51. > :31:54.are not allowed to tell you that. Only weeks ago Mr Juncker was happy
:31:55. > :31:58.to be found. I joined his tour bus in Athens as he campaigned for
:31:59. > :32:02.Europe's top job. He's the centre right choice to be President of the
:32:03. > :32:07.European Commission, and since the centre right won the European
:32:08. > :32:11.elections he's theoretically in pole position. But EU leaders have a big
:32:12. > :32:15.say, the Greek Prime Minister likes him as does the German Chancellor,
:32:16. > :32:19.Angela Merkel, David Cameron isn't keen, viewing Mr Juncker as an
:32:20. > :32:24.obstacle to his attempt to reform Europe. I do think that Europe is
:32:25. > :32:32.stronger with our British friends on board. I do think that Britain in
:32:33. > :32:37.the world can play a major role. Because being a member of the
:32:38. > :32:41.European Union. So I'm far away from being anti-British. I have come to
:32:42. > :32:45.Luxembourg, because now what was supposed to be about democracy has
:32:46. > :32:51.shifted to back room deals, and Mr Juncker is not doing interviews. I
:32:52. > :32:56.haven't found him yet, but I have come to the next best thing, the man
:32:57. > :33:00.who will replace Mr Juncker in the Luxembourg parliament if he becomes
:33:01. > :33:03.commission President. I think he would be the ideal man to build the
:33:04. > :33:10.bridge between the south and north again and to make sure that Europe
:33:11. > :33:15.comes together again, and to hold it together, the union. All the states,
:33:16. > :33:19.including Britain. You think so? I think so, it is one of his
:33:20. > :33:26.priorities. More crucially for us, does he know where Mr Juncker is?
:33:27. > :33:38.(Laughs) We are looking for him. Well look harder! Look heard we did.
:33:39. > :33:44.In Mr Juncker's home town we get a lead. Do you ever see him around? I
:33:45. > :33:49.know's eating a lot of time -- I know he's eating a lot of time in
:33:50. > :33:56.the tennis courts. Not if today is anything to go by. What is this? It
:33:57. > :34:00.is a photo, because I like him and yeah. This is the closest we have
:34:01. > :34:05.got to Mr Juncker so far today. And now we have found Mr Juncker's
:34:06. > :34:11.favourite local, where better to test insinations made in parts of
:34:12. > :34:19.the British press that he's fond of a tipple. I drink more than Mr
:34:20. > :34:24.Juncker, it is the grant -- grappa. Not a big drinker? No, no. It has
:34:25. > :34:29.taken a little while but we have found Mr Juncker's house, but nobody
:34:30. > :34:33.is home at the moment. We were wrong. We have been at Mr Juncker's
:34:34. > :34:37.house, we didn't stay long, the police arrived almost immediately.
:34:38. > :34:41.They asked for our documents, they told us we couldn't film at a
:34:42. > :34:47.private house and shoed us away, clearly someone doesn't want
:34:48. > :34:51.journalists here. Our arrival prompted a different reaction down
:34:52. > :34:54.the road. Newsnight understands Mr Juncker is still confident he will
:34:55. > :35:05.be the next commission President. Here in Luxembourg they wouldn't
:35:06. > :35:08.have it any other way. The latest cover of Private Eye seems to
:35:09. > :35:13.capture the England mood very well. The World Cup arriving in Brazil.
:35:14. > :35:16.And the pilot of the play offering to keep the engine running while
:35:17. > :35:21.they play their first games. The point is not that England will be
:35:22. > :35:27.easily defeated, rather than we as a nation anticipate they will. A poll
:35:28. > :35:30.suggests the English are the most pessimistic of any footballing power
:35:31. > :35:37.in the world. Only 4% of us expect our country to win.
:35:38. > :35:42.# It's coming home # Football's coming home.
:35:43. > :35:45.Oh for the 1990, look at that, songs about England winning football
:35:46. > :35:52.trophies, it seems a long time ago. Where did that confidence go? People
:35:53. > :35:55.are gearing up for the World Cup, our colleagues at the One Show were
:35:56. > :36:03.really getting into it, and even let us have a go. England fans are
:36:04. > :36:06.approaching this tournament with a lot of resignation, there is more
:36:07. > :36:10.enthusiasm about the football than confidence in their team.
:36:11. > :36:20.International polls and bookies' odds both imply that fans are not
:36:21. > :36:22.sure that England will do very well. Across 19 different countries we
:36:23. > :36:26.asked people who they thought would win the World Cup, and Brazil were
:36:27. > :36:31.the strong favourites. Interestingly in England the optimisim that
:36:32. > :36:36.usually accompanies a big tournament wasn't there. In 2010 when we asked
:36:37. > :36:40.a similar question a third of people thought England stood a good chance
:36:41. > :36:47.of winning the World Cup. Now it is 1 in 20, a big change. The YouGov
:36:48. > :36:51.poll found only 4% of the English people thought the team would win.
:36:52. > :36:56.That is not just low for a top team, but lower than countries like the US
:36:57. > :37:02.and Japan. Who will win the World Cup? Brazil. Despite the flag on
:37:03. > :37:07.your roof? We won't be in it. We are not going to win it. I have a good
:37:08. > :37:13.feeling Brazil will win it. Not England? Not England. Why is that?
:37:14. > :37:19.From past experience. Looking at how people bet on the competition,
:37:20. > :37:24.Ladbrokes' odds imply that the public thought England have a 14%
:37:25. > :37:29.chance of winning the World Cup. This year it is 3%, perhaps that is
:37:30. > :37:33.because they think England is worse, afterall its FIFA ranking has been
:37:34. > :37:39.drifting out of the top ten. Maybe it is because people just aren't
:37:40. > :37:44.that inspired. Most importantly we are here and in one piece and the
:37:45. > :37:49.mood and attitude our optimisim hasn't been dented at all. Or maybe,
:37:50. > :38:02.after 48 years of hurt, England's getting a bit more like Scotland.
:38:03. > :38:09.# Just don't come home too soon # Don't come home too soon
:38:10. > :38:18.This was their last World Cup song. We have our guests. With us now.
:38:19. > :38:22.Very nice to have you both chap, if YouGov called you up, as I'm sure
:38:23. > :38:26.they have, who would you say you thought would win the World Cup? I
:38:27. > :38:30.would say Brazil, but it is who I want to win the World Cup, it is
:38:31. > :38:33.obviously England. The problem I have, England football fans have
:38:34. > :38:37.been fairly realistic, but you start to dream and you think if we could
:38:38. > :38:41.get out of the group we could get to the quarter final, if we get there
:38:42. > :38:46.we can do the semis and then the final and then it is anybody's game.
:38:47. > :38:52.Once you start thinking irrationally you get excited. Does it surprise
:38:53. > :38:57.the number of 4%, with Costa Rico on this one? I'm proud, we have got it
:38:58. > :39:01.right. 42% of the time I would have said Brazil. We have simulated the
:39:02. > :39:05.tournament, tens of thousands of times, and 3% of the time England
:39:06. > :39:09.win the tournament when you do that, based on our class. Therefore if 4%
:39:10. > :39:14.of people think we are going to win the World Cup that is about right.
:39:15. > :39:17.It was absurd when 13% of people thought we could win or people
:39:18. > :39:24.thought we had a 33% chance. There are a lot of countries in the world,
:39:25. > :39:30.if England had a 33% chance what about Argentina and brill still and
:39:31. > :39:35.France. Do you -- Brazil and France. Do you admire our statistics or is
:39:36. > :39:40.it the Roy Hodgson approach to dampen everything down, what do you
:39:41. > :39:43.put it down to? I do think that successive defeats have made people
:39:44. > :39:48.more realistic. If England were a team that had a 5% chance of winning
:39:49. > :39:52.the World Cup, you could imagine that basically they win once in my
:39:53. > :40:00.lifetime n my 80ersy. We have won once in my lifetime. People have
:40:01. > :40:05.probably just cottoned on to it and not massively overestimating it. As
:40:06. > :40:11.Brazil are many, many more times likely to win the World Cup, you
:40:12. > :40:16.would say Brazil then. I wouldn't put it as pessimism, but on the
:40:17. > :40:20.moment on Saturday at 10. 30 people are at home or in the pubs watching
:40:21. > :40:29.it and the commentary starts and you say look at the leading line,
:40:30. > :40:41.Sturridge and Lambert up front. Okonedo and others go we are going.
:40:42. > :40:46.Only do think we will get knocked out by the knock-out line. There is
:40:47. > :40:52.a 77% we will be out of the group. The Italians, 20% of who think they
:40:53. > :40:58.will win the World Cup, have a 0. 3% chance of winning. Hopefully our
:40:59. > :41:02.pessimism will take us through. My editor says it doesn't feel the
:41:03. > :41:07.same, can you remember the song? Nobody has seen the flags? The flags
:41:08. > :41:11.are out. Have you seen flags? No so many in Pinner. This is interesting,
:41:12. > :41:16.because four years ago it felt it was a slightly more visible,
:41:17. > :41:22.tangible, is it because we have written it off because it is Brazil
:41:23. > :41:27.or do we know how the Brazilians play now, we are so much more used
:41:28. > :41:35.to it. It knocked the stuffing out of us when we didn't qualify for the
:41:36. > :41:39.euros. We don't do badly and it is not bad result to be in the quarter
:41:40. > :41:45.finals. We are not the biggest country in the world and to be
:41:46. > :41:51.between 4-8th, when you are there you get knocked out. When Argentina
:41:52. > :41:55.is going through a military coup and is down it pulls off a World Cup
:41:56. > :41:59.win. Spain did the same. In the middle of an economic crisis it
:42:00. > :42:03.pulls it out of a hat. When we are starting to feel better and there is
:42:04. > :42:08.more growth coming in? More or less likely? I wonder if you think we
:42:09. > :42:14.don't concentrate, the escapism isn't so relevant? I'm not so sure,
:42:15. > :42:21.it is more to do, my generation is 1966, we got to the semifinals was
:42:22. > :42:26.great. When we hosts it was huge for the country. It felt like Britain
:42:27. > :42:29.was changing and emerging from hooliganism, the economy growing and
:42:30. > :42:34.Britpop. For my generation it felt it all came together. It has taken a
:42:35. > :42:40.long time for the hangover. Before you go, how far are we going to get,
:42:41. > :42:48.out of the group stages? 77. 7% we will get out of the group. That is
:42:49. > :42:55.the best I can do. If If we goat get to the semis we will win it! He's
:42:56. > :42:58.wrong! Thank you very much. Let's stick with the World Cup, over the
:42:59. > :43:00.next week we will bring you a series of profiles of some of the most
:43:01. > :43:13.important and interesting players at the tournament. We start tonight
:43:14. > :43:21.with Da Silva from Croatia. It is the day Eduardo Da Silva would
:43:22. > :43:25.have dreamt of growing up. Tens of thousands of fans cheering from the
:43:26. > :43:31.stands and him the centre of attention in Brazil's opening game
:43:32. > :43:36.against Croatia. This Brazilian boy became a Croatian man, on the 10th
:43:37. > :43:40.of June it will be his job not to make the Brazilian dream, but
:43:41. > :43:47.destroy it in the name of his new country. His is a remarkable Johnny
:43:48. > :43:52.began when aged 15 it was Tsar grebe, rather than Rio -- Zagreb,
:43:53. > :43:58.rather than Rio where his footballing future. Home was a
:43:59. > :44:05.football store room and food was what the restaurant had going spare.
:44:06. > :44:15.Citizenship was granted and Arsenal snapped him up in 2007. Nothing
:44:16. > :44:18.seemed beyond the man dubbed "the Brazilian". He won praise for the
:44:19. > :44:22.dignity of his reaction to a broken leg. But there was a real
:44:23. > :44:28.uncertainty about whether he would ever play again, let alone brace a
:44:29. > :44:33.World Cup. This year he helped steer his current club to a National
:44:34. > :44:36.League title. But in keeping with an unconventional career, the backdrop
:44:37. > :44:41.for that triumph was anything but normal. He was playing for the
:44:42. > :44:50.Ukrainian Premier League. But even that will seem normal when Brazil
:44:51. > :44:53.and Croatia take the field. That was John Motson talking there. We will
:44:54. > :45:26.have more over the coming nights. Now the papers before we go:
:45:27. > :45:40.Let's have a look at the Daily Mail, Cameron, what housing crisis, and
:45:41. > :45:47.JKRowlings donation to the no campaign. And Twitter abuse. An
:45:48. > :45:51.exclusive where fewer checks on overseas applicants have been
:45:52. > :45:59.revealed in a briefing note. That is all we have time for. Good night all
:46:00. > :46:21.of you. Discussion The weather is set fair for the bulk
:46:22. > :46:22.of the UK tomorrow, England and Wales will