:00:08. > :00:11.killing continues unabated in the Middle East tonight. Over 13 more
:00:12. > :00:15.Palestinians have died in Gaza and three Israeli soldiers have lost
:00:16. > :00:19.their lives. As shells hit a market and a UN school in Gaza, the US said
:00:20. > :00:24.it was extremely concerned about the safety of Palestinian civilians. It
:00:25. > :00:27.has pressed again for a ceasefire. Tonight we look at the crumbling
:00:28. > :00:32.borders of countries across the Middle East. How much more chaos can
:00:33. > :00:38.the region withstand before whole states such as Syria and Iraq
:00:39. > :00:42.fracture completely. We will hear live from Tel Aviv and Dubai, and
:00:43. > :00:50.voices from Lebanon and Egypt are here in our London studio. As
:00:51. > :00:54.ununeasy truce leaves more dead on both sides in Gaza, we are in Israel
:00:55. > :00:58.hearing from those living in the midst of war. How can I make my
:00:59. > :01:05.children, grandchildren living here, how can I allow them, give them a
:01:06. > :01:12.safe life? If I don't do what they are doing now in Gaza.
:01:13. > :01:19.And Twitter as instrument of warfare, ISIS is ruthless leaks
:01:20. > :01:27.exploiting the power of social media to terrorise its enemies. We report
:01:28. > :01:34.on the propaganda and ideas but social media being used to
:01:35. > :01:38.increasingly to spread fear. Now the great hope of the Arab
:01:39. > :01:42.Spring that began more than three years ago was that democracy and
:01:43. > :01:45.stability would break out all over the Middle East. It didn't happen.
:01:46. > :01:50.Instead there has been turmoil, bloodshed and atrocities on a
:01:51. > :01:54.terrifying scale. With an elected leader turfed out in Egypt, Libya
:01:55. > :01:59.apparently disintegrating and a new and extraordinary bloody Jihadist
:02:00. > :02:09.group, ISIS capturing swathes of Iraq and Syria. In this mess old
:02:10. > :02:14.friendships and emnities are being replaced. Rereport tonight on where
:02:15. > :02:32.the state boundaries of the new Middle East will be drawn, if, that
:02:33. > :02:38.is, this chaos ever ends. The Middle East is a house designed
:02:39. > :02:46.by Europeans but sat on the foundations of the ottoman empire.
:02:47. > :02:51.Its Monarchies and ministries aped those of Europe, and for several
:02:52. > :02:55.decades it provided stability, now the region is in crisis. It is the
:02:56. > :03:13.chaos caused by a new mutation of political Islam that is the first
:03:14. > :03:18.point in understanding this. Arab regimes across the region have
:03:19. > :03:23.failed, economically, politically, on the security front, they have
:03:24. > :03:31.failed to form a regional structure, any form of permanent stability.
:03:32. > :03:36.Absent some form of channel where the Arab public can get involved in
:03:37. > :03:45.governance, Islamism has been the only gateway. Are the old
:03:46. > :03:51.ideologyists of ba'athist and others have failed and will a caliphate
:03:52. > :03:55.sweep before it. We know this new wave of Islamist politics is a
:03:56. > :04:08.threat to elites and states across the region.
:04:09. > :04:15.There is another thing that's become clear too, that trying to drop
:04:16. > :04:19.another western construct, liberal democracy into the current cauldron
:04:20. > :04:23.of the Middle East simply isn't going to work. For now, at least,
:04:24. > :04:32.the called Arab Spring is going nowhere. In some placeses, like
:04:33. > :04:37.Iraq, it has been trumped by the politics of identity. While the old
:04:38. > :04:42.authoritarian ottoman model, ruled by the Pasha or general, has shown
:04:43. > :04:46.its resilience in Egypt and Algeria. Where the old strong men are swept
:04:47. > :04:51.away, Gadaffi or Saddam, fragmentation has followed. That
:04:52. > :05:04.means old borders coming into question too.
:05:05. > :05:15.The most obvious example has been the disappearing bordered between
:05:16. > :05:19.Iraq by ISIS, it is a new Sunni state, the Kurds have gotten in on
:05:20. > :05:28.the act pushing forward their quest for statehood, Libya is in danger of
:05:29. > :05:39.fragmentation with the east, and the ancient lines Cyrenaica. Don't
:05:40. > :05:46.forget that even in Iraq or Libya, there are still leaders who aspire
:05:47. > :05:50.to control of the whole, not just some rump statelet. You find a
:05:51. > :05:56.tenacious commitment to the state as the unit of primary identity. Now
:05:57. > :06:02.there are a lot of other identities going on, religious, ethnic as well,
:06:03. > :06:05.but the state survives, and the state survives as the unit of
:06:06. > :06:09.primary identity across the whole of the region. And don't forget that
:06:10. > :06:16.other hangover of British rule, Israel. There has been a 100 year
:06:17. > :06:20.argument about its existence and borders. And that times like now
:06:21. > :06:37.that conflict can inflame the whole region. But new forces are coming
:06:38. > :06:41.into play. New alliances in fact emerging in the Middle East, and
:06:42. > :06:51.where as outsiders are happy to sell weapons to these power brokers,
:06:52. > :06:55.regional players are key. So Iran has made itself the guardian of the
:06:56. > :07:00.Shia, forging a power block with Hezbollah in Lebanon, President
:07:01. > :07:06.Assad's regime in Syria and increasingly the rump state of Iraq.
:07:07. > :07:10.Saudi Arabia champions the Sunni Arabs, pouring resources into the
:07:11. > :07:16.Syrian opposition, and its cache has made a client of Egypt too. The
:07:17. > :07:21.Saudis are not necessarily fighting the Iranians, based on religious
:07:22. > :07:28.foundations. In part this is a traditional conflict between two
:07:29. > :07:31.very important regional powers which have a very significant influence,
:07:32. > :07:36.fighting over controlling the Middle East at a time when the US is
:07:37. > :07:42.disengaging. But this isn't just a simple binary soweddy Iranian
:07:43. > :07:47.contest. Saudi Arabia's will has been flouted by Qatar, also Sunni,
:07:48. > :07:52.backing Islamists in Egypt and Gaza. Israel too makes its own rules.
:07:53. > :07:57.Some, dare I mention Tony Blair, say the west must take sides and ally
:07:58. > :08:14.with the Saudi block. The more general western attitude is to steer
:08:15. > :08:19.well clear. Should we in the west be worried? Yes and deeply. Because
:08:20. > :08:23.there is turmoil in the Middle East and it is likely to stay that way
:08:24. > :08:29.for the foreseeable future. And whether or not we want to get
:08:30. > :08:35.involved we will be affected. This will come back to bite you. If you
:08:36. > :08:37.think of the huge trouble of turning, of the United States and
:08:38. > :08:45.the international community turning its back on Afghanistan, leading to
:08:46. > :08:48.the birth of Al-Qaeda and a transnational Jihadi movement, it
:08:49. > :08:53.took days for a young Jihadi tourist to move across, it days hours to go
:08:54. > :08:57.across the border and get into Syria. Clearly this problem will
:08:58. > :09:02.come back and bite Europe especially hard, and also the United States.
:09:03. > :09:07.Growing chaos in Libya or Iraq could raise energy prices and hit economic
:09:08. > :09:12.recovery. Refugees from Syria or Libya flee to the EU, airspace is
:09:13. > :09:17.becoming unsafe for the big chunks of the region. As for the ungoverned
:09:18. > :09:22.space that is also opening up in several countries, it provides a
:09:23. > :09:30.potential home for piracy, extremism and perhaps even the next 9/11. So
:09:31. > :09:34.why are the boundaries that have been relatively firm for the best
:09:35. > :09:38.part of a century now being redrawn. Is there any hope of a return to a
:09:39. > :09:43.more peaceful settled region, what does it mean here for us in the
:09:44. > :09:49.west. With me to discuss this are my guest, the cofounder of the Shark
:09:50. > :09:55.Forum, and former Director General of Al-Jazeera, the television
:09:56. > :09:58.station, and we have the longest continuously serving American
:09:59. > :10:02.official in Iraq, and from Tel Aviv we have the former director of
:10:03. > :10:09.Israel's Intelligence Service, Mosad. In the studio here with me is
:10:10. > :10:11.a professor from the London School of Economics and Egyptian activists
:10:12. > :10:19.and author. Good evening to you all. If I could
:10:20. > :10:23.start by asking you do you believe that the Middle East is entering
:10:24. > :10:29.perhaps its most unstable and dangerous phase for many decades?
:10:30. > :10:35.Actually I do believe that, and I do believe maybe this is the phase of
:10:36. > :10:39.real transformation, maybe this is the most difficult time that the
:10:40. > :10:44.Middle East is going through since 1917, since the First World War when
:10:45. > :10:49.the boundaries and the borders of the so called Middle East were
:10:50. > :10:53.drawn. I think right now there are trends that are combined together
:10:54. > :11:00.that might change and reshape the region. One of them is the rise of
:11:01. > :11:04.generals and military versus the decline of politics. The other one
:11:05. > :11:10.is the fact that the regional system is collapsing and the boundaries and
:11:11. > :11:15.the borders amongst countries in the region are becoming more irrelevant
:11:16. > :11:19.than ever. The third is the delegitimisation of the state,
:11:20. > :11:30.because the state is not seen as an actor that can represent the hopes
:11:31. > :11:36.and dreams of the nation. And the fact that democracy doesn't exist
:11:37. > :11:39.any more. Three years ago we tellrated Tahrir Square, and thought
:11:40. > :11:43.we were going into a new values-centered system that would
:11:44. > :11:47.restructure the Middle East on democracy, but democracy has been
:11:48. > :11:51.murdered in Egypt and across the region, and that is to the silence
:11:52. > :11:55.of the International Society and the collaboration of regional powers, I
:11:56. > :12:02.think we are going through this phase where ISIS has become an actor
:12:03. > :12:08.and more and more people are moving towards an alternative out of this
:12:09. > :12:18.and feeling betrayal. This sounds like total disaster. Is this
:12:19. > :12:24.unstoppable chaos? It is indeed a disaster generally speaking. The
:12:25. > :12:30.fact is the region is more unstable now than it has been in a century, I
:12:31. > :12:34.agree on that front. These historic trends are not easily predictable.
:12:35. > :12:40.It is hard to say whether it is unstoppable or not. Certainly the
:12:41. > :12:44.forces of history are moving very quickly and we all have to be very
:12:45. > :12:49.careful, particularly in the west to preserve our strategic alliances and
:12:50. > :12:54.be on guard for strategic foes like Al-Qaeda, ISIS and other radical
:12:55. > :12:58.Islamist groups which are clearly gaining momentum across the region.
:12:59. > :13:02.If we could move on to this question of borders and whether the map is
:13:03. > :13:08.being redrawn. Now there are those who simply argue that the existing
:13:09. > :13:11.borders were an imposition of colonial powers like Britain, and
:13:12. > :13:15.that therefore they were always at some point going to collapse,
:13:16. > :13:21.because they don't reflect the cultural, racial economic realities,
:13:22. > :13:25.is that your view, Professor, that what we are seeing is inevitable?
:13:26. > :13:32.The modern Middle East was invented by the colonial powers. The modern
:13:33. > :13:36.state system is not and was not economically socially viable. It is
:13:37. > :13:42.not viable, period. We simplify it great deal if we say it is a matter
:13:43. > :13:47.of boundaries. Even though the modern state system was seen as I
:13:48. > :13:50.will imate it has taken deep root since the 1920s. The crisis is
:13:51. > :13:53.bigger, what we are witnessing in the Middle East now is a
:13:54. > :13:57.revolutionary moment. A moment that really is comparable to the great
:13:58. > :14:00.revolutionary moments in history, whether you are talking about the
:14:01. > :14:05.French Revolution or the Russian revolutions. What we are witnessing
:14:06. > :14:09.unfolding before our eyes is fierce social and political struggles,
:14:10. > :14:14.bottom-up politics, the system has been turned upside down, you have
:14:15. > :14:17.Civil War, ideolgical wars, the old system is resisting, the counter
:14:18. > :14:21.revolutionary forces in the region, a new system is not born yet. It
:14:22. > :14:26.would be a mistake to say this is the end of the story. It will take
:14:27. > :14:30.many years for the dust to settle on the battlefield in many countries in
:14:31. > :14:37.the region. You were a great supporter, indeed activist in the
:14:38. > :14:41.Arab Spring, but given the chaos we are now seeing and atrocities on a
:14:42. > :14:44.really terrifying scale, do you think that actually what we saw then
:14:45. > :14:50.has turned out to be a rather dangerous and bad thing? No, I
:14:51. > :14:55.don't, not at all. I would say that I was an activist on behalf of the
:14:56. > :14:59.Egyptian revolution, I think the Arab Spring as a term is very
:15:00. > :15:03.problematic. Even in Egypt we have had democracy over, well an elected
:15:04. > :15:10.President thrown out. It hasn't worked has it? It hasn't worked so
:15:11. > :15:14.far. I think that the example of Dr Morsi being dethroned is
:15:15. > :15:19.problematic, because it was certainly done in the wrong way. But
:15:20. > :15:23.it was actually reflective of the will of the people. The people will
:15:24. > :15:27.probably live to regret it, but we were in the process of a revolution.
:15:28. > :15:32.I think it is really strange how people talk about historic processes
:15:33. > :15:36.taking place in the region, as though they were talking about
:15:37. > :15:44.natural phenomena. While in fact there are actors making things
:15:45. > :15:49.happen, what is happening in Gaza now is from Israel, it is the will
:15:50. > :15:52.of the people, it is not an inevitable historic process, it is
:15:53. > :15:55.very much a part of what is destablising the region and making
:15:56. > :16:00.life difficult. We have to remember that the Islamist movements all
:16:01. > :16:04.started as protest movement, all started as dissident movements
:16:05. > :16:10.against autocratic, dictatorial regimes, and then of course they
:16:11. > :16:15.take the path that they take and in the long absence of victory, I think
:16:16. > :16:20.also Iraq. Again talking about an historic process in Iraq and how it
:16:21. > :16:24.is breaking up and talking about racial ethnic religious divide,
:16:25. > :16:28.let's remember what the United States there. Let's just remember
:16:29. > :16:34.that this entire region, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine,
:16:35. > :16:40.was all a unit that worked and that worked for hundreds and hundreds of
:16:41. > :16:44.years with this entire... We are where we are now and we have to move
:16:45. > :16:53.on to the issue of shifting alliances. And if I could talk to,
:16:54. > :16:59.it is pretty widely recognised that what ISIS is doing in fracturing
:17:00. > :17:06.Iraq, fracturing Syria, committing terrible atrocities is pretty
:17:07. > :17:13.appalling. Was the west simply mistaken in turning against
:17:14. > :17:19.President Assad in Syria? Can you hear me? I think that the west, I
:17:20. > :17:27.said I think that the west miscalculated on Syria. Like almost
:17:28. > :17:33.everybody else miscalculated on Syria. I don't think that the Assad
:17:34. > :17:41.regime would have survived today without the support of three outside
:17:42. > :17:46.elements, one is Hezbollah from Lebanon, who are fighting on Syrian
:17:47. > :17:51.soil and are carrying much of the brunt of the battle. The other is
:17:52. > :17:57.Iran, which also has boots on the ground today, and the third is
:17:58. > :18:02.Russia which is supplying the Assad regime with the necessary weaponry
:18:03. > :18:06.in order to maintain its supremacy in the battlefield. And that, I
:18:07. > :18:09.think, is something which we have to take into account today, no less
:18:10. > :18:14.than what you have mentioned up until now. We have a situation in
:18:15. > :18:21.the Middle East where on the one hand we had known state actors, like
:18:22. > :18:27.Hamas and the Hezbollah, and we have other non-state actors which are
:18:28. > :18:34.becoming semi-independent, like the Kurdish region in northern Iraq. So
:18:35. > :18:39.the situation is varied in the Middle East. Many things are
:18:40. > :18:43.happening simultaneously. It would be wrong to lump everything
:18:44. > :18:46.together. If I could just ask you, do you think we have to in a sense
:18:47. > :18:54.simply accept a sort of new caliphate is being created by ISIS
:18:55. > :19:01.and accommodate it? I think it is a something that has risen out. Sorry
:19:02. > :19:04.go on? I think this is a phenomena that has risen out of this kind of
:19:05. > :19:07.chaos and despair, and the feeling of lack of hope in the future and
:19:08. > :19:12.the feeling that the channels of real change and reform have been
:19:13. > :19:17.blocked and the feeling of humiliation. Actually it is not only
:19:18. > :19:22.ISIS and the caliphate, it is what is happening in Gaza that is going
:19:23. > :19:26.to even radicalise the Arab world further, and maybe accumulate all
:19:27. > :19:30.that kind of anger and feeling of humiliation and direct it towards a
:19:31. > :19:35.cause that resides in the hearts of the Arabs and Muslims and unify
:19:36. > :19:38.them. So what I see right now in Gaza is actually what might become
:19:39. > :19:44.the beginning of a new trend in the region where all these kinds of
:19:45. > :19:50.problems might be directed towards the cause which we call the cause of
:19:51. > :19:55.Palestine, the Israelis at the moment are committing maybe suicide
:19:56. > :19:59.in provoking a nation that is going through transformation and the
:20:00. > :20:05.Israelis who are now bombarding our images, our TV screens, our mobile
:20:06. > :20:08.phones with images of civilians that have been killed, I think this is
:20:09. > :20:11.going to be even much worse than whatever we have experienced in Iraq
:20:12. > :20:14.and any other place. We will come back to that in a second. Before we
:20:15. > :20:18.move on to the issue of the threat to all of us. I have one further
:20:19. > :20:26.question on this issue which is to you Mr Kadaire, America appears to
:20:27. > :20:30.have shown itself utterly powerless, John Kerry's attempts to broker
:20:31. > :20:38.peace over Palestine have failed miserably, what should America be
:20:39. > :20:42.doing in this situation? Indeed we have noticed a remarkable series of
:20:43. > :20:48.American foreign policies over the last 15 years or so, obviously
:20:49. > :20:52.President George W Bush was an ultra activist and now President Obama is
:20:53. > :20:55.essentially an isolationist, essentially withdrawing from most
:20:56. > :21:01.parts of the Middle East in favour of what is essentially an
:21:02. > :21:05.isolationist policy. I think it is critical for the United States and
:21:06. > :21:10.for Washington to actively reengage with the region, with all of our
:21:11. > :21:15.regional allies, the Israelis, the gulf Arab countries, the Egyptians,
:21:16. > :21:21.the Turk, in Baghdad and in Erbil, because what is clearly evident over
:21:22. > :21:27.the past several years that with the American vacuum that's been left
:21:28. > :21:30.under the Obama registration in the region -- administration in the
:21:31. > :21:34.region. World powers and regional powers trying to fill the vacuum. In
:21:35. > :21:42.Iraq there is a proxy war being waged between Iran, some of the gulf
:21:43. > :21:46.Arab countries or individuals, for example Turkey, the same thing is
:21:47. > :21:51.occurring in Syria. As was said there is a proxy war being waged
:21:52. > :21:54.again between some gulf money and clearly the Russians, Hezbollah and
:21:55. > :21:59.the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are involved. So it is a very unstable
:22:00. > :22:06.situation and one thing I can continue to hear from frankly all of
:22:07. > :22:11.our regional allies, our historic allies, they feel that the Obama
:22:12. > :22:15.administration has disengaged and many regional leaders are counting
:22:16. > :22:19.down the days for Obama to leave office hopeful that a future
:22:20. > :22:22.American President will reengage in the region and support its allies
:22:23. > :22:26.and go on the offensive against historic foes like the Iranian
:22:27. > :22:30.Revolutionary Guards or Al-Qaeda. I have to move us on to the issue of
:22:31. > :22:34.the general threat, both within the region and to the rest of the world.
:22:35. > :22:39.I would therefore like to pick up with you professor, do you agree
:22:40. > :22:45.with what was said that broadly what we are seeing in the Palestinian
:22:46. > :22:50.territories has the potential to spark a really devastating wider
:22:51. > :22:57.Middle East configuration? It really does. I mean one point we must make
:22:58. > :23:00.very clear is that the Palestinian tragedy resonates deeply, not just
:23:01. > :23:04.in the imagination of the Palestinians, in the imagination of
:23:05. > :23:09.Arabs and Muslims and worldwide. What is happening with Israel's
:23:10. > :23:13.savage attack in Gaza has already made Hamas a popular movement in the
:23:14. > :23:17.eyes of millions of Palestinians. That is a major shift in Palestinian
:23:18. > :23:22.public opinion, it is seen as a symbol of defiance, resisting
:23:23. > :23:25.Israel's massive military machine, resisting Israel's occupation of
:23:26. > :23:32.Palestinian lands. In many ways we are witnessing the making, not only
:23:33. > :23:35.of a third Intifada, but a wider regional conflict as a result of the
:23:36. > :23:44.massacres and slaughters in Gaza. Where do you see this going in terms
:23:45. > :23:50.of the impact on the west? Well it depends what attitudes the west has,
:23:51. > :23:55.I suppose, the west has a huge role and a huge responsibility and it has
:23:56. > :23:57.been engaged, we have had the quartet, we have had Tony Blair
:23:58. > :24:08.flying in and out of the region quartet, we have had Tony Blair
:24:09. > :24:13.like that. The thoughts are that there should be no intervention?
:24:14. > :24:17.Unless they would like to put a no flight zone and military embargo on
:24:18. > :24:21.Israel that would be really useful. There is a strong call for that from
:24:22. > :24:25.all sectors of civil society now. If I could ask for a second, what do
:24:26. > :24:35.you think the terrorist threat might be from all of this outside of the
:24:36. > :24:40.region? Allow me just a minute to comment and to reply to some of the
:24:41. > :24:44.comments which have just been made because I think it is only fair to
:24:45. > :24:48.allow me to say something about some of the statements just made. First
:24:49. > :24:54.of all I would like to make it clear that the Hamas which controls Gaza
:24:55. > :24:59.is a terrorist organisation. It is not an organisation which has been
:25:00. > :25:03.pronounced terrorist just by Israel, it has been were you nounsed by the
:25:04. > :25:08.-- pronounced by the Government of Egypt which you know has a border
:25:09. > :25:11.with Gaza. It has been pronounced a terrorist organisation not only by
:25:12. > :25:17.the United States of America but many states in Europe. Secondly
:25:18. > :25:21.Hamas are using method which is are supported amongst others by Iran
:25:22. > :25:27.today, just as Iran is active in Syria. So I don't think that this is
:25:28. > :25:33.simply a question of the Hamas being the mouth piece of the Palestinian
:25:34. > :25:40.movement. I'm sure President Abbas of the Palestinian Authority would
:25:41. > :25:46.not take this line of thinking and neither do I. I think, therefore,
:25:47. > :25:52.that we should not discuss the Palestinian issue in this manner as
:25:53. > :25:56.an adjunct to all the other problems. If we want to focus on the
:25:57. > :26:04.general problems in the region that is fine. If you want to turn to the
:26:05. > :26:08.other issues I'm willing to discuss it in detail. You have to discuss
:26:09. > :26:12.whatever it is you want to discuss. But make sure we know what we are
:26:13. > :26:18.talking about. We have to move on at this stage. I really just want to
:26:19. > :26:23.ask whether at this particular juncture you see any hope for
:26:24. > :26:29.stability returning to the region? Absolutely i think we are going
:26:30. > :26:34.through a phase in our history whereby we are trying to find some
:26:35. > :26:38.kind of consensus, political consensus. You should remember that
:26:39. > :26:43.this region has been deprived from having this kind of dynamics for
:26:44. > :26:50.decades. We have been ruled by authoritarian regime, we have been
:26:51. > :26:53.ruled by wrong system, by legitimised states that have never
:26:54. > :26:56.lived up to the hopes of the public. Right now we find we have that
:26:57. > :27:00.space, there are many issues to be settled, the issues of identity and
:27:01. > :27:04.sectarianism, the issues of democracy and the issues of
:27:05. > :27:07.Palestine, I emphasise it is at the heart of the change. I cannot talk
:27:08. > :27:11.about a new Middle East without speaking about the location of
:27:12. > :27:15.Palestine in it. It will go on for some time this debate. Thank you
:27:16. > :27:18.very much to all of you, we have used up our allotted time, which
:27:19. > :27:21.doesn't surprise me it was fascinating, thank you very much.
:27:22. > :27:25.Today over 100 Palestinians and three Israelis died in the on going
:27:26. > :27:29.fighting in Gaza. The biggest outrage of the day was an attack
:27:30. > :27:33.before dawn on Gaza school where hundreds of Palestinians, displaced
:27:34. > :27:37.by the violence, had sought refuge. 16 people died and over 100 were
:27:38. > :27:40.injured as they slept in what they thought would be a safe haven. We
:27:41. > :27:45.can talk now to our correspondent who is in Jerusalem, Tim, what's
:27:46. > :27:51.been the international reaction to this incident? Well the White House
:27:52. > :27:57.tonight has strongly condemned the attack on the school. Although it
:27:58. > :28:02.has also condemned people who are hiding weapons in UN facilities. The
:28:03. > :28:06.UN itself has described the attack as reprehensible and said it warned
:28:07. > :28:11.the Israeli military authorities 17 times about the location of the
:28:12. > :28:20.school in the refuge camp. Israel, for its side says it is
:28:21. > :28:23.investigating, although it says initial indications show there was
:28:24. > :28:25.in coming Palestinian fire from the school. Tonight a statement from the
:28:26. > :28:32.Government saying that the operation in Gaza will continue as long as is
:28:33. > :28:36.necessary to destroy what it calls all terrorists infrastructure. I
:28:37. > :28:39.have spent the day at an Israeli village right on the border with
:28:40. > :28:45.Gaza to find out why the public here still so strongly backs their
:28:46. > :28:52.Government in that aim. On the edge of warzone, they are trying to bring
:28:53. > :28:56.in the harvest as normal. Israeli farmer grows her tomatoes yards from
:28:57. > :29:02.the border fence. She can hear the boom of Israeli missiles falling on
:29:03. > :29:06.the other side. There are regular in coming shells from Hamas in Gaza,
:29:07. > :29:09.already one of the Thai workers she employs has been killed. It is
:29:10. > :29:14.definitely dangerous. I don't have a safe place to run to, I know that
:29:15. > :29:20.all I have to do is lie here on the ground and with my face down and
:29:21. > :29:27.cover my head with my hands. I'm afraid. She and her husband are
:29:28. > :29:30.sticking it out here, along with two volunteer workers from the north of
:29:31. > :29:34.Israel. Though half her village has fled. She has long been a peace
:29:35. > :29:38.activist, trying to build connections between Israelis and
:29:39. > :29:42.Gazans. But now, particularly since the discovery of Hamas tunnels
:29:43. > :29:48.leading to the village, she reluctantly supports her country's
:29:49. > :29:51.operation in Gaza. When I say violence begets violence, they think
:29:52. > :29:59.it is just a saying, but it is so true. Because it brings up hatred,
:30:00. > :30:05.it brings out the worst in people. But how can I make my childrens my
:30:06. > :30:11.grandchildren living here, how can I allow them, give them a safe life if
:30:12. > :30:17.I don't do what they are doing now in Gaza. Across the border it has
:30:18. > :30:21.been another day of death and destruction for Gazans, but the vast
:30:22. > :30:25.majority of Israelis think the operation is justified. The Prime
:30:26. > :30:30.Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has told people to prepare for a long
:30:31. > :30:33.operation in Gaza, and for now public opinion here is
:30:34. > :30:36.overwhelmingly behind him. The questions from the point of view of
:30:37. > :30:41.Israelis are how long it will actually take to completely destroy
:30:42. > :30:46.Hamas's military capability and whether the problem of das STAE, as
:30:47. > :30:52.they see it, can ever be solved by military means alone. Israel
:30:53. > :30:56.unilaterally withdrew forces from Gaza in 2005, that subsequently
:30:57. > :31:01.allowed Hamas to build up its stockpiles of weapons. The man who
:31:02. > :31:04.was then national security adviser believes Israeli forces must now
:31:05. > :31:09.destroy those stockpiles for good. We are not that concerned about the
:31:10. > :31:15.possible high-risk as some people suggest. It is not that is what we
:31:16. > :31:19.want. But as long as Hamas resist and reject any idea of a ceasefire,
:31:20. > :31:22.and we are left with only two military option, either to stay
:31:23. > :31:27.where we are or to try to move forward in order to gain more
:31:28. > :31:33.military achievement, I believe the latter is more visible. But day
:31:34. > :31:37.after day it is Palestinian civilians who are being killed, as
:31:38. > :31:43.well as military targets destroyed. Today at least 17 died in an Israeli
:31:44. > :31:47.strike near a market. Earlier 15 lost their lives when a UN school
:31:48. > :31:52.was hit. Israel says its forces were responding to mortar fire from the
:31:53. > :31:58.school. The UN says it had warned that civilians were sheltering
:31:59. > :32:02.there. After a strike yesterday on Gaza's only power plant Israel has
:32:03. > :32:07.been accused by some human rights organisations of deliberately
:32:08. > :32:12.targeting civilian infrastructure. Critics say that is the doctrine, a
:32:13. > :32:19.reference to Israel's attacks on the stronghold of Hezbollah militants in
:32:20. > :32:23.Beirut in the Lebanon war of 2006. Israeli leaders say its forces
:32:24. > :32:27.always try to avoid civilian casualties, that was easier in
:32:28. > :32:31.Beirut than Gaza. In southern Beirut Hezbollah concentrated the vast
:32:32. > :32:37.majority of its leadership in a few small streets, where we could really
:32:38. > :32:42.target them and exact a very dear price on Hezbollah leadership. In
:32:43. > :32:45.Gaza the situation is different. Hamas leadership and terrorists are
:32:46. > :32:49.dispersed both above ground and underground in residential
:32:50. > :32:53.compounds, in schools and clinics and so on, therefore we cannot
:32:54. > :32:55.concentrate the same fire power and achieve the same outcome. By
:32:56. > :33:04.definition in such a crowded area achieve the same outcome. By
:33:05. > :33:08.will be collateral damage. As that collateral damage mounts and
:33:09. > :33:13.international pressure grows for ceasefire, some say there will have
:33:14. > :33:17.to be a political deal to disarm Hamas, removing weapons in return
:33:18. > :33:24.for massive investment in Gaza. I think there is a chance to achieve
:33:25. > :33:29.something that can endorse, it could surprisingly be from Hamas on one
:33:30. > :33:36.hand, if not Hamas, those who support Hamas, Qatar, Turkey and
:33:37. > :33:41.others. I will not exclude any possibility of huge investment of
:33:42. > :33:47.money in order to rebuild Gaza to build the infrastructure and to
:33:48. > :33:51.bring some better hope, better future for the people of Gaza. The
:33:52. > :33:57.only Israeli demand as part of this package deal is that Gaza will be
:33:58. > :34:02.demilitarised as far as heavy weapons are concerned. And there has
:34:03. > :34:05.been a lot of fighting where we can see?
:34:06. > :34:10.Back on the border Roni knows any such deal is a long way off. She too
:34:11. > :34:16.thinks in the end only talking will bring a solution in Gaza. They are
:34:17. > :34:25.leading us on, Hamas. They are bringing us to this, to the point we
:34:26. > :34:35.are at at the moment, I will never forgive them for that. But on the
:34:36. > :34:43.other hand I think that unless we do talk to them and understand where
:34:44. > :34:50.they are coming from we're not going to OK get any where. A little
:34:51. > :34:54.earlier I spoke to the Israeli Government spokesman. I started by
:34:55. > :35:00.asking him why Israel's bombardment of Gaza is killing so many innocent
:35:01. > :35:07.civilians? First of all there is a war going on between us and Hamas.
:35:08. > :35:10.And in every conflict unfortunately you have a situation where innocent
:35:11. > :35:15.people get hurt. That is part of history. What we are doing is making
:35:16. > :35:18.a maximum effort to avoid civilians getting caught up in the crossfire
:35:19. > :35:22.between us and the terrorists. I think a very genuine effort by
:35:23. > :35:28.Israel to be as precise as we can in hitting terrorists. But I can't
:35:29. > :35:31.promise, as no army can promise that innocent people get caught up and
:35:32. > :35:35.hurt in a conflict. Have you looked at these cases, the bombing of the
:35:36. > :35:41.market took place when a truce was supposedly in place, do you know
:35:42. > :35:46.what went wrong? Well, to be fair, we announced that for our
:35:47. > :35:50.humanitarian truce, and Hamas immediately declared there is no
:35:51. > :35:54.truce, and they continued shooting rockets at Israel. A truce is a
:35:55. > :35:58.two-way street, it is not just Israel holding its fireworks it is
:35:59. > :36:02.Hamas also holding its fire, and its public record that Hamas rejected
:36:03. > :36:06.the truce. That particular place in the market was an area of combat
:36:07. > :36:09.today. I don't know exactly what happened at the market yet, we are
:36:10. > :36:15.still investigating. We will get to the bottom of it. But in the case of
:36:16. > :36:20.the school, the UN itself has declared it as a violation of
:36:21. > :36:25.international law, and has also pointed out that the people in the
:36:26. > :36:28.school were people who had been evacuated from their homes because
:36:29. > :36:31.you had warned them to get out of their homes and they had gone to
:36:32. > :36:36.where they thought was a place of shelter and it turned out they were
:36:37. > :36:41.not safe there. Surely that embarrasses you? It is a tragedy
:36:42. > :36:45.what happened at the school and we simple thighes with all the --
:36:46. > :36:48.sympathise with all the international outrage, we didn't see
:36:49. > :36:52.what happened at the school happen. It is not clear to us that it was
:36:53. > :36:56.our fire, but we know for a fact there was hostile fire on our people
:36:57. > :37:00.from the vicinity of the school. We do know for a fact that there have
:37:01. > :37:04.been three documented cases that the UN has spoken about, not Israel,
:37:05. > :37:09.where weapons, rockets have been stored in UN facilities in in UN
:37:10. > :37:14.schools. It is clear that this demonstrates Hamas has a deliberate
:37:15. > :37:20.policy of brutalising UN facilities, using UN facilities as a human
:37:21. > :37:23.shield, violating UN neutrality, violating the humanitarian essence
:37:24. > :37:26.of a UN body and they should be condemned for it. I know that the
:37:27. > :37:31.secretary-general of the United Nations has ordered an investigation
:37:32. > :37:34.how this has happened, and if the particular agency involved can do
:37:35. > :37:38.more to prevent its institutions being turned into part of the Hamas
:37:39. > :37:42.war machine. But the problem in this case is that Ban Ki-Moon has said
:37:43. > :37:47.that all the evidence does point to you having bombed the school? That's
:37:48. > :37:52.what he said today? We will investigate that, and if we find it
:37:53. > :37:57.was fire from Israel we will apologise if that is the case. When
:37:58. > :38:01.it is shown that we have mistakenly killed civilians we have apologised.
:38:02. > :38:09.There was the terrible story of the four boys on the beach, President
:38:10. > :38:14.Perez himself -- Peres himself got up and apologised. We don't want to
:38:15. > :38:19.kill Gazan civilians we have a policy not to target civilians. What
:38:20. > :38:23.I find striking is the perception in much of the outside world in Israel
:38:24. > :38:27.has changed. There was a poll of British people and it showed that
:38:28. > :38:34.more than 60% of British people think that Israel is guilty of war
:38:35. > :38:38.crimes. It is only marginally less than the people who think Hamas is
:38:39. > :38:42.guilty of war crimes. Doesn't that embarrass you? It is a bit strange,
:38:43. > :38:46.on the one hand Israel is a democracy, imperfect, but a
:38:47. > :38:50.democracy, we have representative Government and a free press and
:38:51. > :38:54.institutions that are transparent and so forth. And we're up against a
:38:55. > :39:00.brutal extreme terrorist organisation, Hamas. Which is in the
:39:01. > :39:05.mode of Boko Haram in Nigeria, or ISIS in Iraq, or Hezbollah in
:39:06. > :39:09.Lebanon. Radical and extreme organisation that rules Gaza with an
:39:10. > :39:13.iron fist. One of the problems with the pictures coming out of Gaza, and
:39:14. > :39:17.I dare to challenge even the BBC reporters there, that Hamas can
:39:18. > :39:21.control the message much more than we can out of Israel. Because if you
:39:22. > :39:26.walk down the street in Gaza with a camera of the BBC, even a Newsnight
:39:27. > :39:30.camera if you allow me, you ask were there Hamas people outside the
:39:31. > :39:34.school shooting at Israeli soldiers, what can people say? Of course they
:39:35. > :39:38.can't say because Hamas doesn't allow criticism. I think in many
:39:39. > :39:43.ways Hamas can send out a very warped picture of what is going on
:39:44. > :39:49.in Gaza. How many pictures have you seen of dead Hamas... There may be,
:39:50. > :39:55.to an extent, a distorted picture of the sort that you describe, but it
:39:56. > :39:59.is a fact that 22 Palestinians are dying for every one Israeli and this
:40:00. > :40:04.is shocking much of the world. Do you care what the world thinks about
:40:05. > :40:08.your behaviour in this war? Of course I do, that's why I'm staying
:40:09. > :40:13.up here in the middle of the night doing Newsnight. Of course I care.
:40:14. > :40:18.But let's be clear, we don't have moraly casualties, not because Hamas
:40:19. > :40:23.isn't trying. We have had now 2,700 rockets fired at Israeli cities. But
:40:24. > :40:26.you have the Iron Dome which protects your cities, you are more
:40:27. > :40:30.or less invulnerable to these rockets? So we have, I think
:40:31. > :40:35.invulnerable is too strong a word, Sir. We have invested millions of
:40:36. > :40:40.dollars in protecting our people in bomb shelters and in sirens I'm sure
:40:41. > :40:43.the British Government would do the same for the British people. We
:40:44. > :40:46.can't allow people to shoot at our cities and trying to kill our people
:40:47. > :40:50.with impunity, that is clear. We cities and trying to kill our people
:40:51. > :40:56.have had now this onslaught going on for weeks, we have been told that
:40:57. > :41:03.part of the aim is to close down these tunnels. When will you have
:41:04. > :41:07.done the job that you want to do? Ultimately our goals are defensive,
:41:08. > :41:10.I would even say defensive in the extreme. We just want to have piece
:41:11. > :41:17.and quiet and a bit of security for our people. So if we come out of
:41:18. > :41:21.this and the Hamas military machine is diminished and they understand
:41:22. > :41:26.that they cannot shoot rockets at Israelis with impunity, that would
:41:27. > :41:31.be a good thing. And what could it be, even better if Hamas comes out
:41:32. > :41:36.of this weakened both militarily and politically, that could give a bit
:41:37. > :41:39.of oxygen maybe to Palestinian moderates to move into the vacuum
:41:40. > :41:44.and maybe have a more energetic peace process. The world woke up to
:41:45. > :41:49.the power of social media to effect huge political change with the way
:41:50. > :41:53.Twitter and Facebook were used in the Arab Spring. Now in the
:41:54. > :41:58.conflicts proliferating throughout the Middle East the Internet has
:41:59. > :42:02.become an instrument of terror, with ISIS releasing horrific footage of
:42:03. > :42:06.the ISIS releasing horrific footage of
:42:07. > :42:10.frighten its enemies so they flee before a bullet is fired. We report
:42:11. > :42:16.on the new propagada war, this film contains very disturbing images.
:42:17. > :42:23.Conflicts in the Middle East run along very old lines. The Israeli
:42:24. > :42:27.Palestinian conflict goes back decades. Tensions between Shias and
:42:28. > :42:33.Sunnis go back centuries. And they are boiling over in Iraq and Syria
:42:34. > :42:38.and beyond. But a new fault line has emerged in recent years. Social
:42:39. > :42:42.media. Cyber battles are now changing the age-old conflicts
:42:43. > :42:48.between the people in power and the power of the people. Most of us use
:42:49. > :42:53.these tools now, for some they are weapons. To start a revolution or to
:42:54. > :42:58.wage a war. The power of social media was mobilised in 2009 in
:42:59. > :43:04.Iran's failed Green Revolution, and then in the historic uprisings
:43:05. > :43:09.called the Arab Spring, they started in Tunisia, Egypt and across the
:43:10. > :43:14.region. It is not just activists who have recognised this power.
:43:15. > :43:18.Governments, regimes use it too. In Syria, for example, the Syrian
:43:19. > :43:23.electronic army is described as the first virtual Arab army. It hacks
:43:24. > :43:27.into websites of the opposition, western media, and human rights
:43:28. > :43:33.groups. In real wars social media has become a weapon in every
:43:34. > :43:37.armoury. In the Gaza war Israel is turning to it to take the high
:43:38. > :43:43.ground. To deny they targeted civilians in a school. To make it
:43:44. > :43:49.clear Hamas is the agressor. There is even a clever app that allows you
:43:50. > :43:53.to imagine the range of these rockets. Wherever re wherever you
:43:54. > :43:56.are. The narrative is carried by many people on many fronts.
:43:57. > :44:02.University volunteers joined the effort. A large portion of our
:44:03. > :44:07.efforts is trying to comment and talk back on articles and posts that
:44:08. > :44:13.are pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel. We do it on Facebook and Twitter and
:44:14. > :44:20.websites and articles that we find. Right now the war is not only in the
:44:21. > :44:25.front it is also a lot in the media. But Hamas is on this frontline too.
:44:26. > :44:29.Videos from their tunnels are widely available on video sharing sites
:44:30. > :44:34.like you YouTube and they are active on Twitter too. They have even
:44:35. > :44:39.released guidelines on how Gazans should use Twitter to report Israeli
:44:40. > :44:44.assaults. But Israel is an old hand in this information war. With an
:44:45. > :44:50.army of savvy spokespersons, coached by the best in the business.
:44:51. > :44:55.Persuadables won't care how much you know until they know how much you
:44:56. > :45:00.care. Show empathy for both sides. But as the old saying goes, a
:45:01. > :45:05.picture is worth a thousand words. In the Gaza war, so strong are the
:45:06. > :45:12.images, they are worth millions of words. Buts the images used by the
:45:13. > :45:16.most violent groups that have no compare. That is That's the points.
:45:17. > :45:20.Videos released by compare. That is That's the points.
:45:21. > :45:27.Iraq, they are meant to shock, and they do. Images like young Shia
:45:28. > :45:31.soldiers in Iraq being led away and executed en masse are the latest to
:45:32. > :45:36.emerge. On the one hand they are doing it to scare a target audience
:45:37. > :45:39.which in this case is specifically Iraqi soldiers, trying to fight
:45:40. > :45:43.against them. On the other hand it is an element of recruitment, you
:45:44. > :45:46.are trying to attract people and showing you are strong and you
:45:47. > :45:51.control the territory and does these things to people. The final note
:45:52. > :45:55.which is more to ISIS is the idea of showing extreme brutality and using
:45:56. > :45:59.it to draw people in. Across the Middle East conflicts are merging in
:46:00. > :46:05.some ways, remaining distinct in others. But when it comes to the
:46:06. > :46:10.battle for hearts and minds, even the most asymmetric wars are being
:46:11. > :46:17.fought with at least one weapon now available to all.
:46:18. > :46:29.With me to discuss who is winning the Middle East battle of social
:46:30. > :46:33.media is my guest. These images of ISIS slaughtering Iraqi soldiers in
:46:34. > :46:37.this brutal way. I mean they are obviously deeply shocking. They do
:46:38. > :46:42.remind me a bit, I don't know if you remember during the Chechen conflict
:46:43. > :46:48.there were images released of Chechens slaughtering Russians, does
:46:49. > :46:52.this represent, in your view, a stepping up of and a change in the
:46:53. > :46:56.way the Internet is used to get a message across? ISIS is doing what
:46:57. > :47:00.many other groups have done, it is doing it fundamentally more
:47:01. > :47:04.effectively, more effectively than competitors and its ex-parent
:47:05. > :47:08.organisation Al-Qaeda. What is the point of it? The point is simple, it
:47:09. > :47:12.is two fold, one to show how strong they are, to intimidate their
:47:13. > :47:15.enemies and it has worked. Iraqi soldiers surrender without a fight,
:47:16. > :47:19.because they have seen those videos, and the second point is to show
:47:20. > :47:24.other groups why they should join ISIS, that is also, to some extent,
:47:25. > :47:29.not to the extent ISIS hoped is working. Why join us rather than
:47:30. > :47:33.Al-Qaeda, well Al-Qaeda is sitting in Pakistan in a house doing
:47:34. > :47:38.absolutely nothing, where as we have taken over half of Iraq, here is the
:47:39. > :47:43.video to prove it. Do you think these image, these brutal images
:47:44. > :47:46.actually work to an extent to recruit potential new soldiers? I
:47:47. > :47:52.think they do, although of course we have had many cases where Jihadists,
:47:53. > :47:57.wet behind the ears, have turned up in Syria and Iraq and found the
:47:58. > :48:03.reality of combat is far worse than evidenced by the glamorous videos
:48:04. > :48:07.that they had seen on-line. It has a dual effect. The other factor is the
:48:08. > :48:11.more brutal they appear the more they can shock some people into
:48:12. > :48:17.surrender but the more they scare Iraq's Shia majority into resisting
:48:18. > :48:23.their brutal sadistic form of rule even more vociferously. There is a
:48:24. > :48:26.slight oddity, if you look at Hamas that released film of their
:48:27. > :48:32.competence of going through the tunnels and attacking Israeli
:48:33. > :48:38.soldiers, that broadly reinforced the Israeli case that Hamas is a
:48:39. > :48:41.brutal terrorist organisation. To an extent therefore may well have back
:48:42. > :48:45.fired in terms of world opinion? I think it will backfire more than the
:48:46. > :48:50.images of the tunnels, which were effective in showing that Hamas were
:48:51. > :48:53.still in the game and their ceasefire conditions need to be
:48:54. > :48:58.taken seriously, with the images of syringes and handcuffs broadcast
:48:59. > :49:01.within those tunnels is a chilling image to Israelis who understand the
:49:02. > :49:05.history of kidnapping that those tunnels were used for. The fact that
:49:06. > :49:09.Hamas is still able to inflict a cost on Israel, that rephoners their
:49:10. > :49:13.point that -- reinforces the point that the ceasefire has to be on
:49:14. > :49:17.their terms too. Does social media and the Internet broadly now level
:49:18. > :49:24.the playing field between the state and terrorist organisations when it
:49:25. > :49:28.comes to propaganda? No, I would say, part of the reason is the same
:49:29. > :49:33.medium that is used as propaganda by both of these competents, state and
:49:34. > :49:37.non-state, is also used very, very effectively by reporters on the
:49:38. > :49:41.ground who can connect immediately viscerally to use and cancel out
:49:42. > :49:46.both of those claims. I'm very grateful, we have one run out of
:49:47. > :49:48.time, that is all we have time for tonight on the Middle East special.
:49:49. > :49:55.Good night.