:00:00. > :00:16.Tonight a political crisis and a humanitarian disaster unfold
:00:17. > :00:22.together in Iraq. Thousands of people are still facing
:00:23. > :00:26.danger. Four helicopters managed to rescue a few desperate refugees.
:00:27. > :00:29.Special Forces take up discreet positions in Baghdad, as the Prime
:00:30. > :00:34.Minister refuses to leave office. We will speak to the Kurdish high
:00:35. > :00:39.representative in the UK, and the American architect of the post-war
:00:40. > :00:43.Government. The fake Camp Bastion hospital with fake injuries, not in
:00:44. > :00:47.Afghanistan but in York. How the lessons of war medicine are being
:00:48. > :00:51.used to educate the NHS. We have moved to something akin to the
:00:52. > :00:55.Ferrari pit stop, where there is a whole team of people stood around
:00:56. > :01:07.the patient ready immediately to get to grips with what they have to do.
:01:08. > :01:11.Good evening, tonight there is stand-off in Baghdad. Nouri
:01:12. > :01:17.Al-Maliki is defiantly refusing to stand down as Prime Minister in
:01:18. > :01:21.favour of fellow Shia Haider Al-Abadi, calling it dangerous
:01:22. > :01:27.breach of the constitution. It is not clear if the troops on the
:01:28. > :01:32.streets are loyal to Maliki or not. But the vacuum in Government adds
:01:33. > :01:36.more instability as the Islamic State fighters hold their positions
:01:37. > :01:41.despite US air strikes. The US administration is providing weapons
:01:42. > :01:51.to the Kurdish Peshmerga fighting IS, but it gives little relief to
:01:52. > :02:00.those in the searing heat. It is a country that has become used
:02:01. > :02:04.to chaos. Tens of thousands of the sect have fled from IS, and are
:02:05. > :02:09.still trapped on the mountain. A Kurdish helicopter flies in across
:02:10. > :02:18.enemy lines. There is frantic scramble, just a few children
:02:19. > :02:24.escape. This is a bleak day for Iraq. On the battlefield another
:02:25. > :02:31.victory for IS, yesterday they lost ground to the forces of the Iraqi
:02:32. > :02:36.Kurds, now they have captured a town just zero 70 miles from Baghdad.
:02:37. > :02:39.While in the capital a major political battle that will have
:02:40. > :02:44.far-reaching consequences for the future of the country. It centres on
:02:45. > :02:48.the simple question, who will be the next Prime Minister? This is Haider
:02:49. > :02:55.Al-Abadi on the right. The man backed by the country's new
:02:56. > :03:00.President, Faud Masum, by the US and the UN and the EU. Al-Abadi had been
:03:01. > :03:04.Deputy Speaker of the House, but today was invited to take over as PM
:03:05. > :03:08.by the President. It is hoped he will bring change and create a more
:03:09. > :03:13.broad-based unity Government that Iraq desperately needs. But it won't
:03:14. > :03:16.be easy. It all depends on the current Prime Minister, Nouri
:03:17. > :03:20.Al-Maliki, a man accused of monopolising power, and following a
:03:21. > :03:28.sectarian agenda that has alienated Iraq's Kurds and Sunnis and helped
:03:29. > :03:34.gain support for the Sunni forces of Islamic State. Al-Maliki has refused
:03:35. > :03:40.to step down, before the President's announcement he deployed militia's
:03:41. > :03:44.loyal to himself on the streets and supporters took to the streets. He
:03:45. > :03:47.said the decision to replace him was a dangerous violation of the
:03:48. > :03:51.constitution, and said we will fix the mistake. He still has the
:03:52. > :03:56.support of loyal party members, but other state of law members, part of
:03:57. > :04:01.his larger political block, more crucially there are between 10,000
:04:02. > :04:07.and 20,000 Iraqi soldiers who are loyal to him, not to the state of
:04:08. > :04:12.Iraq, and they depend on Maliki, he controls elite Special Forces who
:04:13. > :04:16.have been moving around in the Green Zone and outside Baghdad, they have
:04:17. > :04:22.deployed in force and it is sending a signal to others that he's still
:04:23. > :04:26.in charge. The US want him to go, the EU want him to go and the UN
:04:27. > :04:33.want him to go, what can they do about it? It is interesting in
:04:34. > :04:37.itself that Secretary of State Kerry, and the United Nations have
:04:38. > :04:40.support against Haider Al-Abadi, a clear move against Nouri Al-Maliki.
:04:41. > :04:45.At the end of the day they can't do anything. For the Islamic State this
:04:46. > :04:50.is just the sort of chaos they want. Especially on a day the US revealed
:04:51. > :04:56.it has begun urgently shipping arms and ammunition to the Kurdish forces
:04:57. > :05:03.to stop the IS advance towards Erbil. American air strikes have had
:05:04. > :05:07.an affect, boosting more rail. Islamic State have made dramatic
:05:08. > :05:14.advances from Syria across northern Iraq. But yesterday the Kurdish
:05:15. > :05:21.Peshmerga forces took two towns back from IS. Both of which guard the
:05:22. > :05:29.approach to Erbil. Though today IS hit back by taking a town defended
:05:30. > :05:36.by the Kurds. What weapons do they need? They are trying to defend over
:05:37. > :05:41.600 miles of border so it is difficult for them to defend in
:05:42. > :05:45.depth with the resources they have got. They have lost territory and
:05:46. > :05:52.need to reinforce territory to regain it. Air transport would be an
:05:53. > :05:58.ideal solution for them, as well as heavy weaponry. So what happens next
:05:59. > :06:01.for Iraq? Tonight there are warnings if Nouri Al-Maliki refuses to step
:06:02. > :06:08.down as Prime Minister the country could face new chaos. Iraq will
:06:09. > :06:11.break up. There is going to be absolutely no possibility for Iraq
:06:12. > :06:16.to come back together as a nation state, and I think it will lead to
:06:17. > :06:21.further Civil War and the break up of the Iraq as we know it. Iraq
:06:22. > :06:25.desperately needs a broad-based new Government to lead the fightback
:06:26. > :06:31.against IS as the humanitarian crisis continues. What Maliki does
:06:32. > :06:35.next could prove crucial. We have the Kurdish regional
:06:36. > :06:39.Government's high representative in the UK joining us now. I want to ask
:06:40. > :06:44.you about Nouri Al-Maliki later, first of all, can we just talk about
:06:45. > :06:47.what is happening on the mountain, it is so hard to get absolute
:06:48. > :06:55.intelligence about how many people are still on the mountain, and what
:06:56. > :06:57.are your people telling us? It is hard to get accurate numbers and
:06:58. > :07:02.something we are talking about ourselves. The estimate is anything
:07:03. > :07:07.between 50,000 and 150,000 people are stranded. We saw today that four
:07:08. > :07:18.Iraqi helicopters managed to get just dozens. And the Kurdish
:07:19. > :07:23.fighters have brought some but it could be as many as 50,000? Yes, we
:07:24. > :07:26.don't know the numbers. Tell us about what is happening with IS,
:07:27. > :07:32.particularly the disappearance of women? There are terrible reports
:07:33. > :07:41.about the barbarism and savagry of the conduct of IS or ISIS. One of
:07:42. > :07:46.the things that we have heard about is 300-500 Yazidi women were
:07:47. > :07:50.abducted and are being held in a building in Mosul. Some reports say
:07:51. > :07:59.they have been sold into sexual slavery, others that they have just
:08:00. > :08:02.been used as concan you on-- concubines, this is horrific and
:08:03. > :08:07.disaster. What have you heard that is going on with that and also with
:08:08. > :08:11.other atrocities? We just hear terrible things, these anecdotal
:08:12. > :08:17.stories, and of course the people who are being brought down from the
:08:18. > :08:24.mountain in Sinjar, they are also telling terrible stories of dogs
:08:25. > :08:30.eating dead bodies on the mountain. We know that the US has the person
:08:31. > :08:33.merger but we don't know what -- person merger but we don't know what
:08:34. > :08:37.arms. Have you any evidence on that? We don't know what is supplied but
:08:38. > :08:41.what we need is weaponry to match what IS has. And IS has quite
:08:42. > :08:45.substantial stashes for what they have in Mosul. Looking at the
:08:46. > :08:48.question about Nouri Al-Maliki tonight refusing to go, what do you
:08:49. > :08:54.make of that, and do you think can he hold out? It is yet again another
:08:55. > :09:01.disaster politically for Iraq. You know, we were hopeful earlier today
:09:02. > :09:06.when we heard that President Masum had appointed a new Prime Minister
:09:07. > :09:12.and we felt that this was progress and now we feel yet again we have
:09:13. > :09:16.managed to pluck defeat out of the jaws of victory, as the expression
:09:17. > :09:20.goes. It is very difficult to know what will happen, do we now have two
:09:21. > :09:29.prime ministers in Iraq, and what will the situation lead to? Thank
:09:30. > :09:35.you very much indeed. As political wranglings over the Prime Minister
:09:36. > :09:39.continues, the US has made its efforts to destablise rebels in
:09:40. > :09:45.Iraq. President Obama made it clear it is the Iraqi Government not the
:09:46. > :09:48.US who must solve the problem. There is no American solution to the
:09:49. > :09:51.crisis in Iraq, the only lasting solution is for Iraqis to come
:09:52. > :09:55.together and form an inclusive Government. One that represents the
:09:56. > :10:02.legitimate interests of all Iraqis and one that can unify the country's
:10:03. > :10:07.fight against IS. The presidential envoy to Iraq after the US led
:10:08. > :10:12.invasion in 2003 is joining us now. Good evening to you. First of all, a
:10:13. > :10:14.response to what President Obama has now said. President Obama has said
:10:15. > :10:18.it is up to the Iraqi Government to sort this out, we don't appear to
:10:19. > :10:24.have a proper Iraqi Government. Should the US be doing more? You
:10:25. > :10:28.know I think first of all the President needs to be congratulated
:10:29. > :10:34.for making a stuff decision to re-engage in Iraq last week. It was
:10:35. > :10:39.not easy. My concern is the steps announced so far is seems to me are
:10:40. > :10:45.not commensurate with the three objectives he has stated. You have
:10:46. > :10:49.said that no boots on the ground is quite different from combat forces?
:10:50. > :10:55.What do you mean by that and what would you like to see going in? We
:10:56. > :10:58.know there is special ops in and air strike what do you want to see?
:10:59. > :11:02.There are three areas we need to operate in. First of all assist the
:11:03. > :11:06.Kurds, it now it sounds finally we have started giving them some
:11:07. > :11:10.weapons. They will need stepped up intelligence, they may need some
:11:11. > :11:14.assistance in planning special operations, sooner or later the
:11:15. > :11:19.issue won't be air power it will be retaking cities, which will involve
:11:20. > :11:22.special operations. Do you mean by that you mean there will be hundreds
:11:23. > :11:27.of special American troops on the ground or thousands? There are
:11:28. > :11:33.already hundreds there, I have read 800, I'm not aware of the exact
:11:34. > :11:37.number. But it is more a question of planning than actually carrying out
:11:38. > :11:41.operations. The second thing we need to do, once the Government is
:11:42. > :11:44.resolved, and I think it actually will be resolved, once the
:11:45. > :11:48.Government is resolved we need to help the Iraqi Government
:11:49. > :11:53.reconstitute the Iraqi army. Maliki's most serious mistake that
:11:54. > :11:58.he made was basically purging that army of trained officers, trained by
:11:59. > :12:02.our army back in 2006/07. So we have to help them reconstitute. And
:12:03. > :12:06.finally, this is the area where I think the President's policy needs
:12:07. > :12:09.the most evolution, he stated in an interview with the New York Times
:12:10. > :12:15.over the weekend that we would not allow t establishment of an Islamic
:12:16. > :12:18.caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Well in fact they have already established
:12:19. > :12:22.it, at least they have announced it. And that is an American interest to
:12:23. > :12:27.stop that, it is not just a problem for the Iraqis. It is, as he said
:12:28. > :12:29.tonight something the Iraqi Government needs to be concerned
:12:30. > :12:33.about, but we need to be concerned about it. The establishment of that
:12:34. > :12:37.is essentially a failure of American foreign policy? By the President's
:12:38. > :12:41.own definition he said we would not allow it and now it has happened.
:12:42. > :12:49.The question is what do we do now? It seems to me sooner or later the
:12:50. > :12:52.President will have to broaden the air campaign against ISIS, the
:12:53. > :12:59.Islamic extremist, in Iraq and perhaps in Syria. Let me take you
:13:00. > :13:02.right back to Nouri Al-Maliki, basically Nouri Al-Maliki is, as he
:13:03. > :13:07.believes, still the Prime Minister, but at the time, when he first came
:13:08. > :13:11.to power he was backed by the US, he was lauded by George W Bush, that
:13:12. > :13:18.has proved to be a big mistake, hasn't it? I think Maliki has
:13:19. > :13:23.certainly made a real mess of a lot of things, in particular what he did
:13:24. > :13:28.with the well-trained, American-trained army, which
:13:29. > :13:34.collapsed as we all saw in the north as soon as they faced these Islamic
:13:35. > :13:38.extremists. He was devisive from the start, he wasn't inclusive of the
:13:39. > :13:44.Sunnis and that was failure of understanding of the Americans as to
:13:45. > :13:48.his character? Well, yes and also it was a factor that we exacerbated by
:13:49. > :13:51.the withdrawal of the American troops. It was the day after
:13:52. > :13:55.President Obama told him we were going to have no troops at the end
:13:56. > :14:01.of 2011, the very next day in Baghdad that Al-Maliki issued an
:14:02. > :14:05.arrest warrant for his Sunni Vice President. He has been hostile to
:14:06. > :14:09.the Sunnis and that is a very serious mistake. You have talked
:14:10. > :14:15.about Al-Maliki's failure to make the most of American-trained forces
:14:16. > :14:22.and the removal of the cadre, the officer cadre. Right back, wasn't
:14:23. > :14:25.one of the problems was the policy that you and others constituted was
:14:26. > :14:31.the purging of the Armed Forces way back at the beginning, the
:14:32. > :14:35.debafication of the Sunnis, do you think if they had been left in place
:14:36. > :14:38.Iraq would be in such a precarious situation? I don't think it
:14:39. > :14:42.materially affected the situation. Basically what we did was build a
:14:43. > :14:48.new Iraqi army, which is the Iraqi army that defeated Al-Qaeda by the
:14:49. > :14:53.end of 2009. Al-Qaeda was defeated by the Iraqi army. An army trained
:14:54. > :14:58.about the American army, and they collapsed in Mosul. In front of the
:14:59. > :15:03.IS? They melted away because they were commanded by Al-Maliki's Shia
:15:04. > :15:08.cronies put in there. Anybody who knows anything about the military
:15:09. > :15:13.knows if you have an officer leading your platoon who you don't trust you
:15:14. > :15:18.won't fight for him. Those four divisions collapsed up there because
:15:19. > :15:21.the Prime Minister had put in untrained, in most cases, not
:15:22. > :15:27.trained at all, Shia who were loyal to him. You are quite right when you
:15:28. > :15:32.said he has pursued a sectarian political policy. That is absolutely
:15:33. > :15:38.right. A real mistake. Sorry to interrupt, was he not in a sense set
:15:39. > :15:48.on that path, or different almost free rein to do that, by the fact
:15:49. > :15:51.that after this purging by the in coming forces of the Sunni, if they
:15:52. > :15:56.were left in place we wouldn't have that? If they were left in place we
:15:57. > :16:01.would have Saddam in place. And both we and the Iraqis would be a lot
:16:02. > :16:05.worse off. Now the sectarian problems... It is a separate
:16:06. > :16:10.problem, excuse me, it is a separate problem, you removed Saddam, you
:16:11. > :16:15.didn't have to remove the whole group of Sunnis in power? It is not
:16:16. > :16:19.a separate issue. Look we can relitigate it all if you want, we
:16:20. > :16:23.are where we are, I agree that Al-Maliki has pursued a sharply
:16:24. > :16:26.sectarian policy. One that he accelerated when he learned that we
:16:27. > :16:34.were going to have no troops there any more at the end of 2011. And I
:16:35. > :16:38.think, I hope that he will now find way to disengage from this stand-off
:16:39. > :16:44.that your reporter talked about earlier that is going on in Baghdad
:16:45. > :16:48.tonight. And that we will see a new Prime Minister put together a new
:16:49. > :16:58.Government that we can help reconstitute this army. But if those
:16:59. > :17:01.troops on the street are at Al-Maliki's behest and there is
:17:02. > :17:05.trouble, you heard what experts said in the package there, this will be a
:17:06. > :17:10.disaster for Iraq. If there is a meltdown in Baghdad, Iraq
:17:11. > :17:16.essentially will break up? I agree that if those troops wind up
:17:17. > :17:20.fighting to keep Al-Maliki in place then we are in a new ball game
:17:21. > :17:24.entirely. I'm not yet confident that is the direction it will go. There
:17:25. > :17:27.is certainly a risk and the risk is very great if it goes that
:17:28. > :17:31.direction, there is no question. In terms of the in coming Prime
:17:32. > :17:35.Minister, in who you know from a previous incarnation, have you any
:17:36. > :17:39.evidence that he would be more inclusive? You are betting the house
:17:40. > :17:44.on that, is there any evidence that he would be? I don't think we're
:17:45. > :17:47.betting the house, I think the Iraqis are betting the house.
:17:48. > :17:52.Although the Vice President has congratulated him. He was a minister
:17:53. > :17:57.of communications in the very first interim Government. He showed some
:17:58. > :18:03.courage there by proceeding to open the country for the first time to
:18:04. > :18:07.cellphone usage. They are now 23 million Iraqis with cell phones. I
:18:08. > :18:10.had a lot of dealings with him, but I don't have a judgment as to how he
:18:11. > :18:14.will perform as Prime Minister because I haven't seen him for ten
:18:15. > :18:21.years. He has been in a higher position since then as Deputy
:18:22. > :18:30.Speaker. He comes from the same wing of the party as Jaffrey, who was the
:18:31. > :18:33.first Prime Minister. He said in an interview in the Huffington Post,
:18:34. > :18:38.that he would take assistance from anyone to deal with IS, including
:18:39. > :18:43.the Iranians. You of course had urged the Americans to move faster
:18:44. > :18:46.in combatting IS. But the thing is, if people like him feel the
:18:47. > :18:53.Americans are not doing enough what is to stop him turning to the
:18:54. > :18:57.Iranians? Well, the Iranians obviously it is a complicated
:18:58. > :19:02.situation for them too. They certainly have, one has to say, been
:19:03. > :19:08.strengthened in the last ten years in their position in Iraq. There are
:19:09. > :19:11.reports that the Iranians also have told Al-Maliki it is time to move
:19:12. > :19:20.on. I don't know if that is true. It is certainly true that Grand
:19:21. > :19:23.Ayatollah Sistani has called for a more inclusive Government. He
:19:24. > :19:29.doesn't represent the Iranians obviously. But there is a lot of
:19:30. > :19:34.pressure are on the Shia side for Al-Maliki to move aside. One final
:19:35. > :19:38.question. Surely if you have IS, supposedly, beheading people,
:19:39. > :19:44.burying them alive, crucifying people, abducting 300 women if that
:19:45. > :19:48.is not a cause for action what is, if you didn't go into Syria is there
:19:49. > :19:52.any chance you will help sort this out? If I were advising the
:19:53. > :19:57.administration, as I said earlier, I would now call for a broader
:19:58. > :20:00.military air campaign against the Jihadists, not just because it is in
:20:01. > :20:06.Iraq's interest, but because it is in America's interest. We saw the
:20:07. > :20:11.problem when the balance tan took over Afghanistan -- the Taliban took
:20:12. > :20:16.over Afghanistan. The identity of the group that calls itself Islamic
:20:17. > :20:20.State and which has called a caliphate is not entirely clear.
:20:21. > :20:25.Their stock has risen massively ever since they routed Iraqi forces in
:20:26. > :20:29.June and taking control of sophisticated US weaponry which they
:20:30. > :20:35.deployed in tandem with barbaric violence, including beheadings and
:20:36. > :20:38.crucifixions. The self-style caliphate spreading
:20:39. > :20:42.across Syria and Iraq is redrawing the boundaries in the Middle East,
:20:43. > :20:47.in creating huge unease both there and in the west. Islamic State as
:20:48. > :20:52.ISIS now brand themselves control significant parts of Iraq and Syria.
:20:53. > :20:59.Including cities, oilfields and border crossings. At the centre of
:21:00. > :21:03.the group is this man, Badadi, Islamic State fighters pledge
:21:04. > :21:09.allegance to him directly, his only public appearance is from a mosque
:21:10. > :21:14.in moss sell last month. The reaction to ISIS supporters is
:21:15. > :21:22.precisely what you would expect from a cult, it is just never ending
:21:23. > :21:28.praise for Bagdadi in this uncritical admiration of him. It is
:21:29. > :21:35.indigive of just how -- indicative of how much the Islamic State
:21:36. > :21:41.resembles a classic cult. With a declaration of a caliphate, he's now
:21:42. > :21:48.the new figurehead of global Jihad. Vice Magazine filmed celebrations
:21:49. > :21:54.amongst his supporters, with the declaration also brought Bagdadi
:21:55. > :22:00.into conflict with others in the Jihadi sphere, notably Al-Qaeda.
:22:01. > :22:03.Islamic State has fought with the officially sanctioned Al-Qaeda
:22:04. > :22:10.affiliate in Syria. Just like Bagdadi, the founder of the Islamic
:22:11. > :22:15.State's predecessor in Iraq had a tense relationship with Al-Qaeda. He
:22:16. > :22:20.was famed for indiscriminate bombings and videoing beheadings of
:22:21. > :22:25.his captives, tactics Al-Qaeda criticised for being too extreme.
:22:26. > :22:31.Bagdadi appears to favour the brutal approach. These pictures of captured
:22:32. > :22:36.Iraqi Shia soldiers before they were massacred. Al-Qaeda was very unhappy
:22:37. > :22:40.with Zakawi because he was killing a lot of Muslims and engaging in
:22:41. > :22:44.violent tactics and killing a lot of Shias, a lot of things they
:22:45. > :22:50.considered to be unproductive, and Bagdadi today is the air heir of
:22:51. > :23:00.that tradition and approach, which is completely different from tactics
:23:01. > :23:05.and strategy and even ideology. Vice magazine filmed the Islamic State
:23:06. > :23:08.morality police on patrol, unlike his predecessor, Bagdadi and the
:23:09. > :23:11.Islamic State have been far more involved in the governing of a
:23:12. > :23:15.functioning state, even producing detailed financial accounts. I think
:23:16. > :23:18.for ISIS to be able to control territory in two different countries
:23:19. > :23:22.with a large number of fighters requires a very high degree of
:23:23. > :23:26.organisational sophistication. Their record keeping is part of that.
:23:27. > :23:29.Al-Qaeda kept records as well, but for ISIS to do it on the scale they
:23:30. > :23:36.have done with the precision they have done certainly suggests a level
:23:37. > :23:43.of sophistication and meticulousness that is impressive. The test now for
:23:44. > :23:47.Islamic State is alongside military gains they can keep hold of the
:23:48. > :23:50.territories without alienating the populations under their control.
:23:51. > :23:56.We have the Middle East correspondent for the Independent
:23:57. > :24:03.Newspaper and author of The Jihadis Return: ISIS. First of all, do you
:24:04. > :24:13.think IS is ultimately much more of a threat than Al-Qaeda? Much more of
:24:14. > :24:18.a threat, yes. It is far bigger by a factor of 100 or more, it is much
:24:19. > :24:23.better organised. Al-Qaeda was always a rather rag-bag of people.
:24:24. > :24:27.It was never much of an organisation. Although when it was
:24:28. > :24:31.demonised after 9/11 the appearance was given that it was a sort of
:24:32. > :24:36.well-structured group. But it is very different from ISIS, which is
:24:37. > :24:40.truly dangerous and better organised and more experienced. Do you think
:24:41. > :24:50.it is fair to say that the west created Islamic State? Yes. I mean
:24:51. > :24:58.they created the context in which it could grow through the war in Iraq
:24:59. > :25:07.and then they did something very specific in 2011 that they encuraged
:25:08. > :25:12.the rebellion -- encouraged the rebellion against President Assad in
:25:13. > :25:20.Syria, taken over very rapidly by Jihadis. And this is where ISIS was
:25:21. > :25:23.able to grow. Iraqi politicians were warning at the time, they suddenly
:25:24. > :25:29.told me every time I saw them that if this war in Syria goes on it will
:25:30. > :25:32.destablise Iraq. The Civil War will come back there. There was a
:25:33. > :25:35.complete lack of understanding of that in Washington and London. Is
:25:36. > :25:42.there also a lack of understanding that ISIS can be defeated by air
:25:43. > :25:48.strikes? You can do something through air strike, particularly
:25:49. > :25:54.around Erbil, this is fairly flat country, there is no cover and
:25:55. > :25:59.trees. You can stop them on the roads. But it is not going to defeat
:26:00. > :26:05.them. Other parts of the country are much more urbanised, more difficult
:26:06. > :26:09.to use aircraft, you also need good intelligence. In 2003 American
:26:10. > :26:14.aircraft were very active in this area. And then they had forward air
:26:15. > :26:19.observers with radios calling in air strikes from overhead. That works
:26:20. > :26:25.fairly effectively. But ISIS is very well organised, its fighters are
:26:26. > :26:29.very fanatical. It has about three or four successful military
:26:30. > :26:34.campaigns under its belt since it took Mosul on the 10th June. It was
:26:35. > :26:40.fighting pretty well before that, though nobody really noticed it in
:26:41. > :26:45.Fallujah. Is the best way to guarantee the defeat of ISIS a
:26:46. > :26:52.unified, functioning Government in Baghdad? Yes, I mean it is. But how
:26:53. > :26:56.you get that, that is what we haven't had for about half a
:26:57. > :27:04.century. And there isn't much sign of it. In Baghdad people say well,
:27:05. > :27:08.Washington is encouraging them to have an inclusive Government, that
:27:09. > :27:13.will include some Sunni who we didn't share power with before. Hold
:27:14. > :27:17.on a minute the Sunni have already taken the Sunni provinces so you are
:27:18. > :27:22.offering to share power with people who have already taken power where
:27:23. > :27:25.they live. Then you have the Sunni politicians in Baghdad who don't
:27:26. > :27:30.dare go back to their homes because their heads will be cut off. Even if
:27:31. > :27:34.there is a unified Government in Baghdad, in that Government there
:27:35. > :27:44.will not be Sunnis who will be able to take onnies skis? -- on ISIS? No,
:27:45. > :27:49.Al-Maliki going is not a piece of magic which is going to solve these
:27:50. > :27:51.problems. I mean Al-Maliki was a terrible Prime Minister, he's
:27:52. > :27:55.responsible for many things have have gone wrong. But he's not
:27:56. > :28:00.responsible for everything. And things aren't just going to click
:28:01. > :28:07.into place because he goes. There is a hope among the Shia and foreign
:28:08. > :28:14.Governments that Al-Maliki goes, the Sunni community gets what it wants,
:28:15. > :28:19.then it turns on ISIS and kicks them out. And we have an agreement. But I
:28:20. > :28:23.mean just look who they are facing, ISIS is well prepared for a stab in
:28:24. > :28:26.the back, anybody who tries to do that to them they will kill them
:28:27. > :28:31.first. So I don't think this is going to happen. There isn't any
:28:32. > :28:35.sign of the Sunni community redividing and part of it pledging
:28:36. > :28:41.its loyalty to Baghdad instead of the new caliphate. Thank you very
:28:42. > :28:44.much indeed. Now as the British Army's withdrawal from Afghanistan
:28:45. > :28:53.approaches, there is much talk of their legacy in the region. What of
:28:54. > :28:58.the legacy at home? Emergency medicine doctors we have been
:28:59. > :29:05.investigating about the valuable experience it might bring to the
:29:06. > :29:15.NHS. At a fake Camp Bastion that craters for researching entirely
:29:16. > :29:18.fake injuries. This is Camp Bastion Hospital but it
:29:19. > :29:24.isn't Afghanistan it is York. Here the army have set up a simulation of
:29:25. > :29:28.the entire military field hospital, these medics are the last hospital
:29:29. > :29:39.team deployed to Afghanistan, where they will face casualties for real.
:29:40. > :29:44.I served in the British Army for four years. Now I'm an emergency
:29:45. > :29:48.medicine doctor in the NHS. I have come to see what civilian medicine
:29:49. > :29:56.can learn from medical simulation at this level. It is a method called
:29:57. > :30:01.macro-simulation, replicating exactly the conditions medics will
:30:02. > :30:07.face in the field. Today starts with a helicopter rescue. I'm now in a
:30:08. > :30:12.replica of the helicopter they use out in Afghanistan. The team behind
:30:13. > :30:16.me are prepping to receive three casualties that are going to arrive
:30:17. > :30:26.all at the same time. This place is about to get incredibly busy. The
:30:27. > :30:31.scenario is so realistic that the medics are engulfed in the roar of
:30:32. > :30:36.rotar blades and the heat of a helicopter engine. It is really dark
:30:37. > :30:40.in here and there is even the smell of aviation fuel. In Afghanistan
:30:41. > :30:44.when they are flying the lights have to be out. And that's exactly what
:30:45. > :30:49.they have done here. I can see little red torches for light. After
:30:50. > :30:54.treating their patients in pitch darkness, the medics have to
:30:55. > :30:59.transfer them the moment the helicopter lands. So what we have
:31:00. > :31:03.got now is the casualty who has been packaged up and has been stablised
:31:04. > :31:10.on the helicopter and is now being transferred into the hospital. The
:31:11. > :31:16.casualties are rushed into one of the most advanced simulated
:31:17. > :31:21.hospitals ever built. It is essentially a hospital with the roof
:31:22. > :31:26.taken off, and below us we have got 450 personnel, and this is the first
:31:27. > :31:32.time that they will have all come together to work. Every medic is
:31:33. > :31:39.being closely monitored. In charge of the whole operation is doctor and
:31:40. > :31:45.army Brigadier Kevin Beaton. He was my squadron commander in Bosnia and
:31:46. > :31:51.inspired me to study medicine. He spent the last ten years ago driving
:31:52. > :31:56.innovations in medical training. We use video and sound to record all of
:31:57. > :32:01.the activities at the various stages. That screen is showing a
:32:02. > :32:05.patient actually being treated inside the helicopter simulator. And
:32:06. > :32:10.we can switch between all of these different scenes and shots of what
:32:11. > :32:18.is going on to get a feel for how each department is performing. I
:32:19. > :32:22.think the best analogy that we have found is we have moved from driving
:32:23. > :32:29.your car into the local Kwik Fit to now something akin to the Ferrari
:32:30. > :32:33.pit stop at a Formula One event. Where there is a whole team of
:32:34. > :32:40.people stood around the patient ready immediately to start get to go
:32:41. > :32:56.grips with what we have to do. Research into macro-simulation means
:32:57. > :33:02.it improves team work which improves chances for patients. Research shows
:33:03. > :33:08.it contributes to reduced risk to patients. Another study called it a
:33:09. > :33:12.finishing school for experts. The principle behind macro-simulation is
:33:13. > :33:20.that it is as close to reality as possible. Actors and make-up artists
:33:21. > :33:24.mimic even the most severe injuries. Here we have a casualty that we are
:33:25. > :33:28.making up with multiple fragmentation wounds, mostly to both
:33:29. > :33:36.lower limbs. We have smaller peppering, and then we have got
:33:37. > :33:41.quite substantial deep into this side. It looks gruesome but it is
:33:42. > :33:47.fake it is not real. I have never seen anything like this working with
:33:48. > :33:51.the NHS, I'm an emergency medicine doctor and I have not seen this
:33:52. > :33:57.level of simulation. But I certainly think we could do with it. With the
:33:58. > :34:03.British Army withdrawing from Afghanistan, this precise replica of
:34:04. > :34:09.Camp Bastion will be dismantled. But macro-simulation will continue and
:34:10. > :34:13.it has already shift the frontier of medical training. We are better now
:34:14. > :34:18.at preparing ourselves to give good medical care to our people than I
:34:19. > :34:23.think we have ever been. Although simulation training is currently
:34:24. > :34:29.used within the NHS, it is not at this scale or sophistication. It
:34:30. > :34:31.tends to focus on individuals and specific techniques rather than
:34:32. > :34:41.developing the skills of the whole team. There are 147,000 doctors
:34:42. > :34:47.working in the NHS. But only about 6,000 of them attended simulation
:34:48. > :34:52.training last year. The NHS has its own set of unique challenges, but
:34:53. > :34:58.the evidence from the military indicates that macro-simulation on
:34:59. > :35:04.this scale brings real benefits both to medical teams and their patients.
:35:05. > :35:08.Having witnessed it in action today I'm personally convinced it has the
:35:09. > :35:13.potential to make a real difference in the NHS.
:35:14. > :35:21.It is fewer than 40 days until the Scottish referendum and displaying a
:35:22. > :35:27.split personality of which Robert Louis Stevenson would be proud of,
:35:28. > :35:29.according to a study voters are anxious about the outcomes of
:35:30. > :35:33.independence but support has increased. On the all-important
:35:34. > :35:37.question of the economy the survey finds the referendum campaign has
:35:38. > :35:43.increased the amount of voters who think the economy will be worse
:35:44. > :35:48.under independence, from 34% in the last four years to 44%, on currency
:35:49. > :35:51.76% want to keep the pound. It is the most detailed piece of research
:35:52. > :36:24.ahead of the vote. Here is a summary of the findings.
:36:25. > :36:31.The three years that lie ahead of us now, are the most important in our
:36:32. > :36:49.party's history and our country's recent history. Delegates, it is
:36:50. > :36:52.game on for Scotland! Yes I certainly seemed to have mobilised
:36:53. > :36:55.the potential vote, this level of support for independence is towards
:36:56. > :37:00.the high end of what it has been over the last dozen years or so. But
:37:01. > :37:04.it is not clear that the yes side have made the kind of progress that
:37:05. > :37:06.will be needed to move from the baseline support to the 50% vote
:37:07. > :37:39.they need in the referendum. You can't tell us what currency we
:37:40. > :37:49.will have. Alastair you will pick the pound because it belongs to
:37:50. > :37:54.Scotland as much as England. No other question you ask about
:37:55. > :37:58.independence demarcates voters into the yes and no camps as sharply as
:37:59. > :38:02.the economic issue does. The economic issue has been prominent
:38:03. > :38:06.from the beginning of the referendum campaign, it has always looked like
:38:07. > :38:10.the most important issue, it has simply become more important when
:38:11. > :38:49.deciding to vote for origins independence.
:38:50. > :38:54.I'm well aware of the fact that whilst many people have made up
:38:55. > :38:57.their minds, there is still quite a large number of people who have
:38:58. > :39:00.still to decide which way they are going on the referendum. We have
:39:01. > :39:05.just six weeks to convince them. I relish the position of being the
:39:06. > :39:08.underdogs, I think that is the best position to be in a campaign. The
:39:09. > :39:15.trick is not to be ahead today, it is to be ahead on September 18th,
:39:16. > :39:17.that is what we intend to do. To discuss an independent Scotland
:39:18. > :39:24.economic prospects from Inverness, we have an economist and currency
:39:25. > :39:30.expert, Sir Ronald McDonald. And we have our guest who is campaigning
:39:31. > :39:33.for independence. If more people this year believe the economy would
:39:34. > :39:37.be worse under independence than they did last year, less than 40
:39:38. > :39:41.days out you have lost the argument? That is not what we are saying on
:39:42. > :39:44.the ground. We are engaging with business and the public. What we are
:39:45. > :39:50.seeing is when we explain in Scotland we generate more tax per
:39:51. > :39:53.head, we have got higher GDP, 15%, than the rest of the UK, and
:39:54. > :39:56.Scotland has a vibrant economy, not just oil and gas, life science,
:39:57. > :40:00.manufacturing, education, financial service, we see people coming
:40:01. > :40:03.towards the economic argument that is moving towards yes. That is
:40:04. > :40:06.anecdotal evidence from you on the streets, that is not the same as
:40:07. > :40:13.having a proper survey of attitudes and views of Scots? Well in terms of
:40:14. > :40:18.polls and surveys I will leave crystal ball gazing to the
:40:19. > :40:23.politicians and the pollsters. We are speaking to the public out there
:40:24. > :40:27.every night doing that. We are getting back that people are moving
:40:28. > :40:31.towards a yes vote in terms of the strength of the economy. You have
:40:32. > :40:38.studied the economy and the currency. Presumably this move
:40:39. > :40:45.accords with your view, perhaps not from you but people like you engaged
:40:46. > :40:48.in a Project Fear in the economy, maybe that is taking hold, the fear
:40:49. > :40:53.rather than the facts? I think there is a huge amount of uncertainty
:40:54. > :40:58.around the economy, particularly over the issue of currency. In
:40:59. > :41:06.coming at this as an economic analysis, I believe that the real
:41:07. > :41:12.issues have not been played out to the public. A bit late now? Not in
:41:13. > :41:17.the currency, people don't understand why for example the pou
:41:18. > :41:19.wouldn't be a suitable mechanism for an independent Scotland. It is
:41:20. > :41:22.really the worst of all worlds for an independent Scotland. I mean I
:41:23. > :41:27.can see why in the survey people have said they would like the pound,
:41:28. > :41:31.because it will remove uncertainty. But because Scotland is going to be
:41:32. > :41:35.such a different economy post-independence, it is a crazy
:41:36. > :41:40.idea to set the pound as the centre of your macro-economic policy. Well
:41:41. > :41:45.there is the view of a currency expert, so why don't the yes
:41:46. > :41:51.campaign simply come out and say, look, there is a Plan B, and unlike
:41:52. > :41:55.George Osborne, there is a Plan B, there is a different way of doing
:41:56. > :41:58.it, it is with a Scottish currency, pegged to sterling. But this
:41:59. > :42:01.insistence of hanging on to the idea of some kind of monetary union when
:42:02. > :42:07.you know that all the opposition leaders are dead against it? It is
:42:08. > :42:12.interesting that Ronald's fifth world was a currency issue, the
:42:13. > :42:15.currency issue became the last bastion of the scare tactics of
:42:16. > :42:18.Better Together. The Scottish Government have made it clear what
:42:19. > :42:23.their position on this is. The UK Government have made their position
:42:24. > :42:25.clear on this. The reality is no Chancellor of the Exchequer,
:42:26. > :42:30.especially in an election year will make it more difficult for
:42:31. > :42:33.businesses in England and Wales to transact with Scottish customers, it
:42:34. > :42:37.is economic and political vandalism to suggest that would be the case.
:42:38. > :42:46.Let's turn it on its head, would Scotland, using sterling, be good
:42:47. > :42:53.for the rest of the UK? Well, it would be in a sense, but if we are
:42:54. > :42:57.talking about comparing say a flexible exchange rate or separate
:42:58. > :43:03.currency, which I think is what the SNP are on about, they are referring
:43:04. > :43:08.to this 400 smell I don't know or five hundred million transaction
:43:09. > :43:13.cost the rest of the UK will have to bear. What they would continue to do
:43:14. > :43:23.is invoicing in sterling, all of the costs would be born by the Scottish
:43:24. > :43:28.business and public. Moving on to the question of oil, so much is
:43:29. > :43:34.hinging on oil, and yet the reality is of huge price fluctuations, the
:43:35. > :43:42.yes campaign say a barrel of oil in 2016 will be $110, the Office for
:43:43. > :43:46.Budget Responsibility says $98. You cannot base an economy on the
:43:47. > :43:50.fluctuating price of a barrel of oil? That is what I said at the
:43:51. > :43:55.start, we don't balance our economy on oil and gas. Without oil and gas
:43:56. > :44:00.our GDP is the same as the rest of the UK. When we look at oil and gas
:44:01. > :44:03.in terms of North Sea gas and as you know yourself there is huge finds
:44:04. > :44:06.around about the west of Shetland, oil and gas will be here for many
:44:07. > :44:11.years to come, there is no doubt about that. It is only the OBR who
:44:12. > :44:16.think that oil price also go down, most suspect it will be going up.
:44:17. > :44:18.Thank you very much indeed. Tomorrow morning's front page, just beginning
:44:19. > :45:05.with the Times: That is it for tonight, we leave you
:45:06. > :45:09.with a wit of free running which is defined as the art of expressing
:45:10. > :45:15.yourself in your environment, usually urban without limitation of
:45:16. > :45:19.movement. This was a French free run family doing exactly that on the
:45:20. > :45:26.roofs of Paris, when they acted out the newest version of the video game
:45:27. > :46:34.Assassins Creed, set in the French Revolution.
:46:35. > :46:35.We're flooding on going watch. Away from tomorrow morning we