:00:00. > :00:09.Tonight we're live in Edinburgh, still part of the United Kingdom,
:00:10. > :00:13.but a vote next week to change all that for good. With ten days to go
:00:14. > :00:18.the yes campaign has electrified the race. What can the unionists come up
:00:19. > :00:25.with to win hearts now? These are big changes, that we are proposing,
:00:26. > :00:31.to strengthen the Scottish Parliament but at the same time to
:00:32. > :00:35.stay as part of the United Kingdom. The shivers are running from head to
:00:36. > :00:38.foot through Westminster's political establishment, will they be looking
:00:39. > :00:44.at a collective failure to save 300 years of history. Polling God John
:00:45. > :00:49.Curtice takes us through tonight's numbers and... Obviously the debate
:00:50. > :00:53.about Scottish independence has focussed on the people behind me who
:00:54. > :00:57.live in Scotland. What about the other participants in the
:00:58. > :01:02.300-year-old marriage, what does it mean for the people who live over
:01:03. > :01:14.there. The Scottish shadow secretary may soon have a country in his own
:01:15. > :01:20.portfolio, how does he feel? Good evening from Edinburgh, not
:01:21. > :01:24.since hamlet's agony over to be or not to be has such a deceptively
:01:25. > :01:27.simple question proved so difficult to answer. Half of Scotland want to
:01:28. > :01:30.be an independent country and the other half don't. In race that
:01:31. > :01:36.seemed to be happily chugging along for 18 months and the final paces
:01:37. > :01:39.with numbers that appear to be too close to call have been electrified,
:01:40. > :01:42.leaving a country split down the middle. Today it was the turn of a
:01:43. > :01:46.former British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, to set the agenda, a
:01:47. > :01:53.man who some would say declared his own independence from Westminster
:01:54. > :01:57.some four years ago. Cutting it fine, after more than 800
:01:58. > :02:03.days of campaigning, tonight a new promise for the union has arrived. A
:02:04. > :02:08.timetable for Gordon Brown for more powers over tax and welfare and
:02:09. > :02:12.soon. I say that this represents the new union of the 21st century. It is
:02:13. > :02:16.essentially Home Rule for Scotland within the United Kingdom. It is as
:02:17. > :02:21.close to federalism as you can be in a country where 85% of the
:02:22. > :02:27.population is from one-nation. It is extensive social and economic
:02:28. > :02:33.devolution, that ends the accusation that we're a centralist, unitary
:02:34. > :02:33.uniform state. There is ten days late and
:02:34. > :02:39.uniform state. There is ten days comes out with promises? I hate to
:02:40. > :02:42.say this I wrote a few months ago we should set a timetable and be clear
:02:43. > :02:47.about how quickly we could deliver the proposals. Who has been holding
:02:48. > :02:50.it back? I made the proposal to the Conservatives and said this was the
:02:51. > :02:54.right thing to do. I hope they will now come round to the view this is
:02:55. > :02:57.the right thing to do. One source in the no campaign describes what is
:02:58. > :03:00.happening as horrific in streets, where in the past, Labour hardly had
:03:01. > :03:06.to try, voters are starting to say yes. With just ten days to go, there
:03:07. > :03:11.is evidence the SNP is starting to do what they had always hoped to and
:03:12. > :03:15.had to achieve. Peel off traditional solid Labour support from places
:03:16. > :03:22.like this and move those voters towards backing independence. It is
:03:23. > :03:27.not just a frenzy caused by one poll, but a real conviction, there
:03:28. > :03:33.is a chance for independence. We shouldn't be having our imperialist
:03:34. > :03:38.masters telling us what to do. Imperialists masters? Well we were
:03:39. > :03:40.all part of the empire and Scotland contributed at one
:03:41. > :03:48.all part of the empire and Scotland seen the light and getting away from
:03:49. > :03:53.it. Mitch Darling Dearly McAllister -- Alastair darling is too keen to
:03:54. > :03:57.hang on. You are having a pop. You have walked past the yes campaign
:03:58. > :04:02.and said "scary" why? A lot of people are jumping on the yes
:04:03. > :04:08.bandwagon without considering the final consequences. The argument at
:04:09. > :04:16.the heart of the campaign is not that independence is a panacea, it
:04:17. > :04:19.puts us in charge of our own resources not just what Westminster
:04:20. > :04:24.allows us, we take decisions about our own priorities.
:04:25. > :04:29.If the pound slips to an all time low, what happens when you win?
:04:30. > :04:32.Let's be calm, during political campaigns on budget days it is not
:04:33. > :04:37.unusual to see the value of the pound fluctuate. Much of the
:04:38. > :04:40.uncertainty flows from the UK's Government irrational refusal to
:04:41. > :04:42.discuss about a currency union. Why is it irrational? It would be
:04:43. > :04:46.against the interests of Scotland but the rest of the UK in terms of
:04:47. > :04:49.transaction costs and losing the value of Scottish exports from the
:04:50. > :04:54.balance of payments now. Why would a rational UK Government turn its back
:04:55. > :04:58.on the vast contribution of Scottish exports to the balance of payments
:04:59. > :05:01.putting its trade deficit. It is Scotland turning its back on the
:05:02. > :05:06.rest of the UK not the rest of the UK turning its back on Scotland? We
:05:07. > :05:10.are not turning our back on anybody, we will be working with friends
:05:11. > :05:13.across the islands but on the basis of equality. It is not just about a
:05:14. > :05:19.country with more of its own control, for some voters it is about
:05:20. > :05:27.escape. We will be laughing at you... . Again and again the no
:05:28. > :05:31.campaign are attacked for being proto-Tories. Exiting is a way of
:05:32. > :05:38.moving away from Conservatives for good. Get the Tories out. What it
:05:39. > :05:41.says is "to end Tory rule forever? " I voted against devolution in 1979,
:05:42. > :05:45.I thought we were the one country. Margaret Thatcher came along and
:05:46. > :05:49.proved we are not. Should people in 2014 be voting to get rid of
:05:50. > :05:54.something that you believe Margaret Thatcher created? That is not
:05:55. > :05:57.exactly looking to the future? Every positive has a negative, we are
:05:58. > :06:00.voting for democracy, that is the most important thing. It will be a
:06:01. > :06:08.total disaster for Scotland. I strongly believe that we are all
:06:09. > :06:12.very much better together. We are intermarried, 400,000 people from
:06:13. > :06:26.the rest of the UK live and work in Scotland. 800,000 people live and
:06:27. > :06:29.work in the UK from Scotland. Absolutely no, I will move to
:06:30. > :06:36.England. You feel as passionately as that? As passionately. Why? Because
:06:37. > :06:40.if you have got any money we're going to be taxed to the hilt.
:06:41. > :06:45.Gordon Brown is determined with his plan to turn yeses to no. But it
:06:46. > :06:49.won't be easy. Whatever the unionists put forward in these last
:06:50. > :06:53.ten days it might struggle to get through. The yes campaign isn't just
:06:54. > :06:58.putting forward an argument for independence, but it is honing in on
:06:59. > :07:03.a distrust, a dislike, a disillusionment with Westminster.
:07:04. > :07:07.And that's starting to work. Unhappy unionists claim their private
:07:08. > :07:12.numbers still hold up. Those who would leave the UK and start anew
:07:13. > :07:17.may have the energy, but yes still feels like maybe.
:07:18. > :07:21.That was We will talk more about that disillusionment in a moment.
:07:22. > :07:25.First to the weekend, and the YouGov poll put the yes campaign ahead for
:07:26. > :07:30.the first time. An independent Scotland now seems more like a
:07:31. > :07:35.realistic possibility. The psephologist John Curtice has put
:07:36. > :07:38.together a poll of polls looking at how what Scotland thinks has changed
:07:39. > :07:41.over the past year. Based on the average of six key polls at the
:07:42. > :07:47.beginning of the year, the no vote was on a lead of 25 points. Now
:07:48. > :07:54.according to YouGov those supporting independence are now at 51%, leaving
:07:55. > :07:57.the no vote lagging behind at 49%. Let's join Professor Curtice right
:07:58. > :08:01.now. And there is a new poll that is coming out tonight. I know that is
:08:02. > :08:04.embargoed until midnight. But some of the papers are looking at it.
:08:05. > :08:11.Broadly, John, does that follow the same thrust as the one this weekend?
:08:12. > :08:20.Well, at the weekend we had two opinion poll, one from YouGov
:08:21. > :08:27.suggesting a dramatic swing putting yes ahead, but Panelbase putting not
:08:28. > :08:31.detecting a swing. It looks from what I have seen that maybe when the
:08:32. > :08:35.poll comes out at midnight we will be confirmed in the view that
:08:36. > :08:41.something has indeed changed and this race looks an awful lot closer.
:08:42. > :08:48.Where you Where do you feel it is changing? Is it to do with age,
:08:49. > :08:53.gender-based The truth is one group seems to be resistant to the idea of
:08:54. > :08:57.an independent Scotland and remains as unconvinced of the idea of it
:08:58. > :09:03.that is the over 60s and the over 65s. The two groups amongst whom
:09:04. > :09:06.there is progress being made, that is more working-class less well off
:09:07. > :09:10.voters who have always been inclined to say that they were more willing
:09:11. > :09:19.to vote yes, they seem to have swung more strongly in numbers to yes. And
:09:20. > :09:23.there is some evidence that the yes side have overcome the gender gap,
:09:24. > :09:27.if it was only men voting the yes vote would have it. Certainly some
:09:28. > :09:29.of the target groups for the yes side, younger voters, working-class
:09:30. > :09:36.voters and women they seem to have made progress under. Do the polls
:09:37. > :09:44.seem to suggest what is driving the change now. I mean when more people
:09:45. > :09:47.appear to be saying yes, or the undecides are no longer undecided
:09:48. > :09:50.what is pushing them? The first thing that is pushing them is the
:09:51. > :09:54.issue we have always known is central to whether or not someone is
:09:55. > :09:58.likely to be a yes or no voter which is whether or not they think that
:09:59. > :10:02.independence will be good or bad for Scotland's economy, that, which
:10:03. > :10:07.according to YouGov was something where as recently as June we almost
:10:08. > :10:10.had twice as many people who said they were pessimistic about the
:10:11. > :10:15.economic consequences were optimistic, those two groups are now
:10:16. > :10:19.roughly equal in size. There has been a dramatic increase in
:10:20. > :10:23.optimisim that independence would make Scotland better, that is a
:10:24. > :10:26.message that has got through to voters who are currently not
:10:27. > :10:30.terribly better off and are looking for a better tomorrow. You may ask
:10:31. > :10:35.how is that possible given that during recent weeks one of the key
:10:36. > :10:37.messages from the no side is Alex Salmond doesn't have a plan for the
:10:38. > :10:43.currency and you can't keep the pound, it will all be disaster. The
:10:44. > :10:47.answer seems to be that the argument on the currency has been overegged
:10:48. > :10:51.by the no side. And that what was already true, that a significant
:10:52. > :10:55.proportion of Scotland's population thought they were bluffing, that
:10:56. > :10:59.proportion has increased considerably by YouGov it is
:11:00. > :11:03.actually only half do so. This raises a question as to whether or
:11:04. > :11:12.not the no side have a credibility problem that voters have stopped
:11:13. > :11:19.believing the claims about the consequences of the division that
:11:20. > :11:24.they are trying to get across. We have the Treasury spokesman with
:11:25. > :11:28.us in London tonight. If it comes down to the economy, what are we to
:11:29. > :11:33.make of the pound today at its lowest rate for some ten months
:11:34. > :11:39.against the dollar, over fears that yes will win? Over the last year the
:11:40. > :11:42.pound has fallen around 1% a day over 16 occasions against the euro,
:11:43. > :11:47.on three occasions against the dollar. So what we are seeing isn't
:11:48. > :11:51.actually that unusual. I think it is less to do with Scottish
:11:52. > :11:56.independence and more to do with the markets being rather spooked by the
:11:57. > :12:00.lack of preparedness of the UK Government, particularly their
:12:01. > :12:04.strange idiotic refusal even to negotiate on a currency union which
:12:05. > :12:07.has Nicola Sturgeon said earlier in the programme is clearly in the best
:12:08. > :12:16.interest to Scotland and the rest of the UK. Right so when Alex Salmond
:12:17. > :12:20.during the debate there were three Plan Bs but refused to explain what
:12:21. > :12:24.would happen without the pound, can you fill in the gaps? What the First
:12:25. > :12:32.Minister all along has said is we have looked at every single one of
:12:33. > :12:35.the options and we know and inAlastair Darling confirmed it, the
:12:36. > :12:38.formal currency union that the commission proposed is the best
:12:39. > :12:42.option. The sterling zone and sterling the currency needs the ?100
:12:43. > :12:48.billion of Scottish exports receipted in sterling. It needs that
:12:49. > :12:52.desperately. It also is the ?60 billion fair trade from England into
:12:53. > :12:57.Scotland needs to avoid transaction cost that is could destroy hundreds
:12:58. > :13:04.of thousands of English jobs, there are many reasons why currency union
:13:05. > :13:06.makes sense. When you have eminent economists like Professor Krugman
:13:07. > :13:10.today writing there is no way you can join a currency union when the
:13:11. > :13:15.country has refused, not to have control of your own currency, he
:13:16. > :13:19.says, is nightmarish. You are just going to ignore that? I'm not going
:13:20. > :13:23.to ignore it, I will always listen to what the professor says, but one
:13:24. > :13:26.looks at Germany, that uses a shared currency and they are doing rather
:13:27. > :13:32.well. Sterling is our currency as much as the rest of the UK's, for
:13:33. > :13:37.all of the reasons I have given, Scotland's exports are ?100 billion,
:13:38. > :13:41.the ?60 billion of trade from south to north, a currency union is in
:13:42. > :13:44.both country's best interest, the failure of the UK Government so far
:13:45. > :13:48.to enter into serious discussions about this, the campaign tactic of
:13:49. > :13:51.burying their head in the sand and saying no is now coming home to
:13:52. > :13:55.roost. I hope they see sense quickly, that we get the sterling
:13:56. > :13:59.and the currency stablised and we can move forward with independence
:14:00. > :14:04.to continue to trade properly between the countries and for the
:14:05. > :14:09.whole of these islands around the world in sterling. I'm sorry to
:14:10. > :14:13.interrupt, we have seen Gordon Brown come out today, the Chancellor of
:14:14. > :14:18.the Exchequer yesterday talking about plans for details, offerings
:14:19. > :14:23.of what would happen to a loyal Scotland, let as say. Would you say
:14:24. > :14:29.that a no vote would still be a good day for Scotland? No, and I have to
:14:30. > :14:35.say I thought the intervention today by Gordon Brown was bizarre. You
:14:36. > :14:39.know a backbench Labour MP making promises he cannot possibly keep,
:14:40. > :14:44.expecting a Tory Government to implement a Labour devolution plan,
:14:45. > :14:48.the weakest of the three plans that the three unionists parties have
:14:49. > :14:51.previously proposed and they are pretending some how bizarrely this
:14:52. > :14:57.was the best thing we could possibly have. The only way to get the power
:14:58. > :15:01.Scotland needs to save the NHS, to grow the economy, to create jobs is
:15:02. > :15:04.to vote yes and the only reason, there is no devolution proposal on
:15:05. > :15:10.the ballot paper is because people like Gordon Brown and David Cameron
:15:11. > :15:14.couldn't agree 18 months ago so we have a yes-no vote and everybody now
:15:15. > :15:23.knows the yes vote is the only way to deliver the power Scotland needs.
:15:24. > :15:27.Thank you very much indeed. Douglas Alexander has been listening to
:15:28. > :15:33.that. Isn't that the truth that if you had actually got the third
:15:34. > :15:38.question, what used to be called Devo Max or some form of extended
:15:39. > :15:43.powers for Scotland you wouldn't anybody this mess now? That wouldn't
:15:44. > :15:50.satisfy the nationalist, the key question is in or out of the UK.
:15:51. > :15:53.Today was the day reality interrupted the story the
:15:54. > :15:57.nationalists are trying to say. We saw ?2 billion off the stocks of
:15:58. > :16:00.Scottish companies, that is real people's pensions and the threat to
:16:01. > :16:04.real people's jobs. That was on the basis of a single opinion poll.
:16:05. > :16:09.These are not threats that are being made, that is the facts of what the
:16:10. > :16:11.market today judged would be the potential consequences of a decision
:16:12. > :16:16.to vote yes on September 18th. Was Gordon Brown part of that reality.
:16:17. > :16:20.When on earth did you think he was going to come and debate, he was
:16:21. > :16:24.never been an electoral Viagra for you? He secured a record number of
:16:25. > :16:28.votes for Labour in 2010 in Scotland. And the fact is he speaks
:16:29. > :16:33.with great authority, not just as a former Prime Minister, but someone
:16:34. > :16:36.who has revoted his whole life to secure Home Rule within the UK in
:16:37. > :16:40.Scotland. What he has done today is set out both a timetable for
:16:41. > :16:44.legislation and an agenda for change. You knew he was going to do
:16:45. > :16:48.that today? I certainly did. How long ago did you know it was coming?
:16:49. > :16:51.As Gordon said, we have been pushing the British Government for weeks.
:16:52. > :16:56.There were further conversations last week, directly involving
:16:57. > :16:59.Gordon, so that there was maximum clarity for voters before September
:17:00. > :17:02.18th. When you say pushing you mean you would like this to come a lot
:17:03. > :17:06.earlier? We have said for months we think there is a case for bringing
:17:07. > :17:10.the maximum degree of clarity to this debate. The three parties have
:17:11. > :17:13.had their own proposals and published over a series of months.
:17:14. > :17:17.Voters will know with certainty we will have within months a new
:17:18. > :17:23.Scotland Act that will deliver, if I'm honest what most people in
:17:24. > :17:28.Scotland want. That is more decisions taken across the road in
:17:29. > :17:32.Scotland, but backed up by the strength and security of the UK.
:17:33. > :17:37.This is a significant day in the campaign. Are people right to think
:17:38. > :17:41.if they want less of a Tory Government, as you do, they should
:17:42. > :17:46.vote yes? The last thing they should do is choose a currency union which
:17:47. > :17:49.would involve no control effectively for Scotland over interest rates,
:17:50. > :17:51.borrowing and levels of taxation that would be set by a foreign
:17:52. > :17:55.Government over which we would have no democratic say. The truth is I'm
:17:56. > :17:58.here in Scotland with two Governments I don't agree. I'm
:17:59. > :18:00.unyield anything my opposition to the Conservatives, and I
:18:01. > :18:03.fundamentally disagree with the Scottish nationalists. It is in the
:18:04. > :18:08.character of a democracy that you don't always get the Government you
:18:09. > :18:11.vote for. But a youngster voting for the first time on September 18th
:18:12. > :18:14.will have lived three-quarters of her life under a UK Labour
:18:15. > :18:16.Government. Some how the nationalist Government that you never get the
:18:17. > :18:19.Government you want. The only circumstances in which you always
:18:20. > :18:23.get the Government you want is a one-party state. I don't think
:18:24. > :18:28.anybody is recommending that. Is it going to plan for you, is it going
:18:29. > :18:32.on track? I believe we will win on September 18th, but I don't take it
:18:33. > :18:35.for granted, we are not complacent. You weren't surprised by the poll at
:18:36. > :18:38.the weekend? There is a lot of emotion swilling around in Scotland
:18:39. > :18:42.today. I understand that, it is a decision of the head and heart. But
:18:43. > :18:46.if people vote yes that is just about emotion? I think that of
:18:47. > :18:49.course contributes to the fact that you can't walk along the street in
:18:50. > :18:53.Scotland without people talking about the referendum. People are
:18:54. > :18:56.making up their minds. The more people know about it and this is
:18:57. > :19:02.what the yes campaign said, the more they know about it? I don't think
:19:03. > :19:06.anyone will listen to the interview you conducted a few minutes ago and
:19:07. > :19:10.say we know much, we don't know Plan B. We don't know how to protect the
:19:11. > :19:16.National Health Service in Scotland when you are looking at an
:19:17. > :19:21.additional ?6 billion of cuts, those are the numbers of the Institute of
:19:22. > :19:24.Fiscal Studies. There are profound uncertainties, my sense is in the
:19:25. > :19:27.closing days of the campaign the judgments people will make will not
:19:28. > :19:31.just be national, in Scotland's interest, but also very personal.
:19:32. > :19:34.And given we saw ?2 billion wiped off Scottish shares today, I think
:19:35. > :19:38.that will weigh heavily on people as minds. You heard John Curtice who
:19:39. > :19:41.stands as an independent in this argument, what he was saying is the
:19:42. > :19:47.more you have pushed the currency issue the more it has rebounded on
:19:48. > :19:51.the Better Together campaign. People don't trust you when you thrust that
:19:52. > :19:54.in their face? You don't have to take my word for it, look at the
:19:55. > :19:58.markets and the judgment in relation to Scottish shares. The fact is that
:19:59. > :20:03.we do have an exceptionally good deal for Scotland with the prospect
:20:04. > :20:06.of more powers across the road but with the strengths, stability and
:20:07. > :20:11.the security of the United Kingdom behind us. Why is it in our
:20:12. > :20:15.interests to shrink the whole market of Scotland from 64 million
:20:16. > :20:18.consumers to five million. The blunt truth is none of the Better Together
:20:19. > :20:22.campaign thought they would be in this position just ten days before
:20:23. > :20:29.the vote. Do you think it could have been played better, with slightly
:20:30. > :20:32.less condescension, and slightly more appeal. When people ask why
:20:33. > :20:37.isn't it already Better Together, what is your response? We are ?1200
:20:38. > :20:40.per head of population better off in terms of public expenditure each and
:20:41. > :20:45.every year because we get a good deal from Scotland. Secondly how has
:20:46. > :20:49.Scotland gone from being one of the poorest parts of the UK to one of
:20:50. > :20:52.the richest over the last 30 years. We are a prosperous and successful
:20:53. > :20:56.nation within a larger state of the United Kingdom. Of course I want to
:20:57. > :20:59.see change, but change is coming. This Government has a mandate of
:21:00. > :21:03.only eight months left to run. Even tonight we have had two further
:21:04. > :21:05.opinion polls across the UK showing the prospect of a Labour Government
:21:06. > :21:08.is very real and immediate. What we have learned today is not just that
:21:09. > :21:11.change is coming to the institution, but I believe we will see with a
:21:12. > :21:14.Labour Government the kind of changes that most people here in
:21:15. > :21:20.Scotland want to see. Thank you very much. It is not quite time for
:21:21. > :21:25.bitter recriminations but the blame game isn't that far off, Westminster
:21:26. > :21:31.as a body shrugged off accusations of blind panic today as politicians
:21:32. > :21:36.from the main parties offered plans of the details that would greet the
:21:37. > :21:39.news of an independent Scotland. Is it dislike of anything Westminster
:21:40. > :21:48.that is really driving the yes campaign? Our political editor
:21:49. > :21:53.reports. 307 years of history but in just ten
:21:54. > :21:56.days the union could unravel. Since the first opinion poll showing yes
:21:57. > :21:59.could win it the last 36 hours of panic in Westminster have ensured
:22:00. > :22:04.that even if it is a no vote Scotland is going to be a very
:22:05. > :22:07.different place. There has been much fear and trembling in Westminster
:22:08. > :22:12.today as politicians woke up to the fact that Scotland really could go
:22:13. > :22:14.it alone. After jockeying behind the scenes it became Gordon Brown, the
:22:15. > :22:18.former Labour Prime Minister who made a speech this evening, setting
:22:19. > :22:23.out the timetable for the handover of powers to Scotland. Except many
:22:24. > :22:28.in Westminster worry that even this won't cut it. That what the people
:22:29. > :22:33.of Scotland want to hear about, is not some dry process, but talk of
:22:34. > :22:37.fresh powers. Under Gordon Brown's timetable come Burns Night in
:22:38. > :22:40.January 2015 there will be new powers for Scotland. But what will
:22:41. > :22:45.the areas of agreement be? The former Prime Minister announced
:22:46. > :22:49.today that he thinks Hollyrood should set a far larger chunk of
:22:50. > :22:54.income tax to Scotland. These are not signed off by all at
:22:55. > :22:58.Westminster. What could they all endorse? This evening's senior
:22:59. > :23:02.sources have told me to expect movement on tax, public spending and
:23:03. > :23:08.welfare. But income tax is the biggy. This is where the parties
:23:09. > :23:13.currently stand, Scotland-Labour has suggested increase tax varying
:23:14. > :23:17.powers, MSPs should be able to vary tax by up to 15p, they would be
:23:18. > :23:21.allowed to restore the 50p rate for top earners, but if they wanted to
:23:22. > :23:26.cut the 45p rate they would only be able to do so if they cut the basic
:23:27. > :23:30.rate as well. Quite prescriptive. The Conservatives think there should
:23:31. > :23:34.be full income tax powers. Making the Scottish Parliament accountable
:23:35. > :23:38.for 40% of the money it spends. They think a Scottish Parliament could
:23:39. > :23:43.decide on tax rates and bands. The Lib Dems too would hand a lot of
:23:44. > :23:47.this over. The Liberal Democrats and Tories are quite close together on
:23:48. > :23:50.income tax what about Labour. Ed Miliband's hitherto has been
:23:51. > :23:54.reluctant to add anything on income tax, he's said not to want a race to
:23:55. > :23:58.the bottom a low tax regime over the boreder in Scotland. But Labour has
:23:59. > :24:02.been criticised in this campaign for not offering the Scottish people
:24:03. > :24:10.enough on tax. So they may feel they need to make a bold gesture. One
:24:11. > :24:14.cabinet minister indicated to me today it could be substantial
:24:15. > :24:18.amounts of welfare handed over to Scotland. Treasury sources are also
:24:19. > :24:22.highlighting that much of welfare policy is already devolved to
:24:23. > :24:29.Northern Ireland. Scottish Labour has suggested housing benefit should
:24:30. > :24:37.be devolved to Hollyrood, allowing Scotland to get rid of the so called
:24:38. > :24:41.bedroom tax. The Tories believe other things could go north. On this
:24:42. > :24:44.it looks like Labour and the Tories are not that far apart. My
:24:45. > :24:48.understanding is there will be movement. Total panic stations from
:24:49. > :24:52.the no campaign, they have gone behind in the polls and it is
:24:53. > :24:56.because they don't have a big idea and they are hoping frankly, that
:24:57. > :25:00.the people of Scotland are pretty stupid and didn't notice there was
:25:01. > :25:05.no detail. We have seen no joint plan from the no parties, they have
:25:06. > :25:10.been asked for it, where is their Plan A, and all we have is a
:25:11. > :25:14.timetable, we have a long memory, we know being told to vote no for a
:25:15. > :25:18.stronger parliament and we got 18 years of Margaret Thatcher. No thank
:25:19. > :25:22.you. I want a Scotland that will govern itself, and I'm voting yes
:25:23. > :25:25.and a lot of other people are. If there was a serious handover of
:25:26. > :25:28.power north of the border there will have to be significant shifts down
:25:29. > :25:33.south. One senior Conservative told me that the sight of separatist
:25:34. > :25:37.Scottish MPs voting on issues that only affect the English would drive
:25:38. > :25:43.UKIP wild. David Cameron, they said, will have to act. Senior figures in
:25:44. > :25:46.Westminster are right now negotiating on a new powers. Trying
:25:47. > :25:49.to find agreement in the months ahead of a general election usually
:25:50. > :25:58.characterised by bitter disagreement. Not easy.
:25:59. > :26:02.That was Here in Edinburgh is great place to talk about what those new
:26:03. > :26:05.powers that the parliament, the Government could have. Lindsay
:26:06. > :26:09.McIntosh is the Scottish political editor of the Times, she's here with
:26:10. > :26:13.us now. And from London Fraser Nelson, the editor of the Spectator,
:26:14. > :26:18.and is it your sense, Lindsay, that will be enough to sway people if
:26:19. > :26:21.they come now or will it look like panic stations? I think it is very
:26:22. > :26:25.important what Gordon Brown has done today, what we saw yesterday from
:26:26. > :26:28.the Chancellor did look panicked. It allowed Alex Salmond to say, first
:26:29. > :26:32.they tried to threaten us, then they tried to bribe us. But giving Gordon
:26:33. > :26:36.Brown control of the situation, he's a man that has respect in Scotland
:26:37. > :26:39.that perhaps has diminished elsewhere. He's been involved in
:26:40. > :26:42.this debate for a long time. The speech that he gave tonight is very
:26:43. > :26:46.similar to speeches he has made in the past. He's not coming to this
:26:47. > :26:50.anew. And there is trust for him up here that some of the other party
:26:51. > :26:53.leaders don't have. And you think that can work hand in glove with
:26:54. > :26:58.what the Chancellor is offering, or are those two going to start seeming
:26:59. > :27:01.to be offering divergent things? I think for Better Together's sake
:27:02. > :27:04.what they need do is keep some of the Westminster politicians out of
:27:05. > :27:08.this, and leave it to the Better Together campaign to hold things
:27:09. > :27:11.together. As they have actually done reasonably admirably over the last
:27:12. > :27:16.couple of years, given the diversity of views within that organisation.
:27:17. > :27:20.Fraser, an interesting turn of events when Gordon Brown is getting
:27:21. > :27:24.the praise now for bringing people to the table? Yes it is rather
:27:25. > :27:28.strange. And of course he's dishing out blame as well, we heard him
:27:29. > :27:33.saying how he would have done earlier if it wasn't for the beastly
:27:34. > :27:37.Tories. I do think the unionists have a fundamental problem here.
:27:38. > :27:41.Alex Salmond wanted originally for there to be questions on the ballot
:27:42. > :27:44.paper, the status quo, separation and more powers for Scottish
:27:45. > :27:47.politicians. David Cameron ruled it out, quite rightly. But now he's
:27:48. > :27:50.saying he wants to put it back in, right at the last few days of the
:27:51. > :27:57.campaign. So I'm really not sure this will be credible and nor am I
:27:58. > :28:00.sure that the promise of control over housing benefit is going to
:28:01. > :28:05.sway that many voters in Scotland. The time for doing this was six
:28:06. > :28:09.months ago. That is when you could have advanced a devo max option as
:28:10. > :28:12.it is called, and during that time there was more support for that an
:28:13. > :28:18.independence. That has changed now. That ship has sailed. I can't quite
:28:19. > :28:24.see that the tactical logic behind doing what they are doing now. There
:28:25. > :28:27.was a tacit criticism, if you think this ship has sailed, that the
:28:28. > :28:30.Tories weren't on board earlier, from Douglas Alexander when I spoke
:28:31. > :28:35.to him a few moments ago, he said Gordon Brown wanted to get this
:28:36. > :28:39.stuff out months ago? He did, the Tories were right to reject it then.
:28:40. > :28:43.I'm not quite sure what they think will change by doing this now. If
:28:44. > :28:51.you look at what has happened in the last two weeks, about 95% of Tories
:28:52. > :28:55.in Scotland will vote no. It is the Labour camp who are defecting to the
:28:56. > :28:59.yes campaign and so they are bringing in Gordon Brown and saying
:29:00. > :29:03.look speak Labour language to them and see if you can bring them over.
:29:04. > :29:10.It is an understandable gambit, but I don't think it is about this now.
:29:11. > :29:12.It is not about adding a couple of constitutional levers up to Scottish
:29:13. > :29:15.politician, it is about making an emotional case for the union. That
:29:16. > :29:20.is what they should be doing in the last few days of this campaign. It
:29:21. > :29:23.seems as if the unionists just seem unwilling in principle to talk about
:29:24. > :29:27.Britain and the love of it in the same way that the nationalists talk
:29:28. > :29:31.about Scotland. I mean there is plenty of passion for the union. I
:29:32. > :29:36.think they have to do both. I would agree with Fraser there. The
:29:37. > :29:39.constitutional settlement has to be dealt with. We need to talk about
:29:40. > :29:44.more powers, fine. We need to do that on the one hand, but on the
:29:45. > :29:48.other hand, the unionists need to make a positive case for remaining
:29:49. > :29:54.within the UK. And that would be my main criticism of what they have
:29:55. > :29:58.done so far. This then obviously opens the door to, as car win Jones
:29:59. > :30:02.was tweeting to Wales and Northern Ireland, and then talking about more
:30:03. > :30:06.devolved powers for everyone? Which is why they didn't want to have this
:30:07. > :30:13.argument to start with. It is a separate issue as opposed to
:30:14. > :30:18.Scottish independent. Scottish independence is a binary selle the,
:30:19. > :30:23.and along the lines of devolution is a separate question. If you are in
:30:24. > :30:28.the no camp or the Better Together camp you say no to independence and
:30:29. > :30:31.then you still get these extra devolved powers. Do you think some
:30:32. > :30:35.people will not want that at all? Yes, there will be quite a few
:30:36. > :30:41.people who don't think Scotland has benefitted that much from
:30:42. > :30:43.devolution. And they can't quite see why giving the Scottish politicians
:30:44. > :30:47.more power will make Scotland better, given the powers they have
:30:48. > :30:52.got haven't been a wild success in the last 15 years. But those guys
:30:53. > :30:55.are not represented. They are in a minority, they are not represented.
:30:56. > :31:00.Right now as we can understand it there are only two options in the
:31:01. > :31:04.ballots paper, one is for complete separation and the other for a whole
:31:05. > :31:08.lot more powers to the Scottish Parliament. The status quo option
:31:09. > :31:12.seems to have been taken off the table.
:31:13. > :31:15.Thank you both very much indeed. If there are jitters right now in
:31:16. > :31:18.the Better Together campaign they are being felt tanningably by the
:31:19. > :31:23.markets as we were discussing earlier. The pound plunged to its
:31:24. > :31:28.lowest level against the dollar for ten months as the first poll emerged
:31:29. > :31:33.that Scotland was are the to go it alone. The strongest card the Better
:31:34. > :31:35.Together has played in its insistence threat is Scotland could
:31:36. > :31:42.no longer keep the pound. Would it prove to be a bullying argument or a
:31:43. > :31:46.persuasive one. Duncan Weldon, our economics correspondent is in the
:31:47. > :31:54.City of London for us. Talk us through what happened today? Behind
:31:55. > :31:56.me is the City, they have had dramatic day with huge moves.
:31:57. > :32:00.Starting with the one you mentioned, the currency. Today the pound lost
:32:01. > :32:06.1% of value against the US dollar and down a per cent against the
:32:07. > :32:11.euro. 1% may not sound like a big move, but for a major international
:32:12. > :32:16.currency that is a big move. It wasn't just the currency market that
:32:17. > :32:22.saw the turbulence, the shares of big companies that sell to Scotland,
:32:23. > :32:28.Lloyd's of Scotland, Babcot, they were down heavily as well. When I
:32:29. > :32:33.talked to Stuart Hosier from the SNP, he said it wasn't a cram matk
:32:34. > :32:36.move and happening grabbed -- dramatically, and happening
:32:37. > :32:40.gradually, he blamed the Better Together for refusing to allow the
:32:41. > :32:48.currency union? Well I think the thing is, this is definitely being
:32:49. > :32:52.driven by uncertainty. There are so many unanswered questions, all very
:32:53. > :32:56.important to the British and Scottish economies, what currency
:32:57. > :33:00.will they use, what will happen with the debt. Doesn't exit make the rest
:33:01. > :33:05.of the UK more likely to exit the EU. What happens to oil revenue, how
:33:06. > :33:09.does it affect UK exports. These are all really big questions to which we
:33:10. > :33:12.don't have answers. If there is one thing the markets don't like is
:33:13. > :33:15.uncertainty, today we have a lot of uncertainty.
:33:16. > :33:21.More tomorrow. More in the next few weeks, where do you think this is
:33:22. > :33:25.going, briefly? Very briefly I think the next ten days are going to be
:33:26. > :33:30.volatile. The markets, people over there will be watching all the polls
:33:31. > :33:34.very closely. If we get a no vote the feeling of the people I have
:33:35. > :33:37.been speaking to is you will quickly see Scottish share prices come up
:33:38. > :33:42.and more value back in sterling. If we get a yes vote all the unanswered
:33:43. > :33:45.questions become a lot more real. Both sides are currently working on
:33:46. > :33:48.the assumption you have 18 months to sort it out after a yes vote. I
:33:49. > :33:55.think there will be an awful lot of market pressure to get an answer
:33:56. > :33:57.much quicker er, if we get a yes vote.
:33:58. > :34:02.What about those the other side of the border in this debate, the
:34:03. > :34:05.voices that don't get a vote, but may feel passionately about the
:34:06. > :34:09.question that is being asked. A year ago we hosted a debate on the union
:34:10. > :34:12.bridge that straddles the Tweed. It was a moment the yes campaign
:34:13. > :34:18.emerged as winners. We returned to the very spot and sent this report.
:34:19. > :34:21.Obviously the debate about Scottish independence has mainly focussed on
:34:22. > :34:26.the people who live behind me in Scotland. But what of the other
:34:27. > :34:37.participants in this 300-year-old marriage. What does it mean for the
:34:38. > :34:43.people who live over there? For nearly 200 years the union bridge
:34:44. > :34:46.over the River Tweed has witnessed a changed world and the UK. A year ago
:34:47. > :34:53.it was the site of Newsnight's live debate on the future of Scotland. It
:34:54. > :34:56.has, shall we say, had much water under the bridge since then. For the
:34:57. > :34:59.entirety of the referendum campaign there has been an assumption this
:35:00. > :35:03.side of the Scottish border that voters here don't really need to
:35:04. > :35:08.worry too much about what's going on over there. Afterall, the poll
:35:09. > :35:12.suggests that independence was going to be comfortably defeated. Now
:35:13. > :35:17.though some polls suggest a different picture. So what are
:35:18. > :35:20.voters over here thinking now? Barry and Nantesy Smith are on holiday
:35:21. > :35:25.here from Staffordshire. The changing polls worry them. We go on
:35:26. > :35:28.holiday to Scotland regularly, this is the third or fourth time in the
:35:29. > :35:32.last three or four years, we love going north of the border. But it
:35:33. > :35:38.doesn't feel like we are going abroad. Maybe in future it will do.
:35:39. > :35:44.As an English person I'm proud to be British. I just feel that we are the
:35:45. > :35:47.British Isles and we're better together, better united together
:35:48. > :35:51.than going our separate ways, we could be and are stronger together.
:35:52. > :35:56.The boreder between England and Scotland has many reminders of
:35:57. > :36:02.centuries of conflict. On the Berwick ramparts, build to protect
:36:03. > :36:09.the town from attacking Scots I get Phil Johnson, he's the editor of two
:36:10. > :36:14.newspapers, the Berwickshire News for Scottish reader and the Berwick
:36:15. > :36:20.Advertiser for English readers. Many identify themselves with the town
:36:21. > :36:23.rather than Scottish or English. If there was an international border of
:36:24. > :36:28.course things would change, but perhaps not culturally. There would
:36:29. > :36:32.still be cross-border links remaining the same. A lot might
:36:33. > :36:36.depend on what Scottish independence looks like. Walking through Berwick
:36:37. > :36:40.you get the impression of a town that looks in two directions
:36:41. > :36:46.overlapping cultural identities common.
:36:47. > :36:54.What would it mean for you as a west Highland terrier do you think?
:36:55. > :36:57.Anything? Anything in particular? (Barks) if Scotland were another
:36:58. > :37:02.country, a separate foreign country, different state, would that bother
:37:03. > :37:07.you? They just do what they want to do any way. There is a Scottish
:37:08. > :37:12.souvenir shop in England. English and Scottish tourists it seems have
:37:13. > :37:14.different tastes. You have to do different orders because the
:37:15. > :37:17.Scottish people generally, even though they are coming to England
:37:18. > :37:23.won't take anything with an English flag. Really, some of them will, but
:37:24. > :37:27.a lot of them won't touch anything with an English flag. English people
:37:28. > :37:30.even though not quite in Scotland yet are happy to take the Scottish
:37:31. > :37:35.flag. That is really interesting? Just some people just won't touch
:37:36. > :37:39.anything with an English flag. The town behind me has changed hands
:37:40. > :37:44.between England and Scotland 13-times over the course of its
:37:45. > :37:49.history. Talking to people today about the prospect of further
:37:50. > :37:53.constitutional upheaval, the emotions I have most encountered are
:37:54. > :37:58.uncertainty about the future and sadness. This union chain bridge
:37:59. > :38:02.spans Britain's life as great power. Opened just five years after the
:38:03. > :38:08.Battle of Waterloo, it stood during the golden age of Britishness. It
:38:09. > :38:16.may begin its next chapter brackets by border posts. The union gone and
:38:17. > :38:21.the chain broken. The Scottish historian Tom Devine is
:38:22. > :38:26.here, with Miral Somerset-Webb editor of Money Week who lives in
:38:27. > :38:29.Edinburgh. We have a passionate unionist from Boston joining us too.
:38:30. > :38:35.Thank you very much for joining us. Tom if it is a yes next week will
:38:36. > :38:40.you be happy? Mixed feelings obviously. I have come out in
:38:41. > :38:44.support of the yes campaign, reluctantly if you will. But I'm
:38:45. > :38:46.conscious of the fact that would only be the
:38:47. > :38:50.conscious of the fact that would process. First of all there would be
:38:51. > :38:57.the post-referendum discussion, the management of the process. And then
:38:58. > :39:01.you know given the long sent trees of connection there will then be
:39:02. > :39:07.challenges, major challenges ahead for the, if you like the new
:39:08. > :39:12.Scottish nation. And of course there is also the sense of leaving a very
:39:13. > :39:17.good and old friend, in one way. But I hope that what's referred to as
:39:18. > :39:20.the social union, if you like, the sociocultural union, will in the
:39:21. > :39:25.long run be strengthened, because one of the reasons I have come to
:39:26. > :39:32.this conclusion is that the union itself is no longer fit for purpose,
:39:33. > :39:36.it is a destablising factor within the British Isles. It is interesting
:39:37. > :39:40.that you say leaving a good and old friend, a lot of people imagining it
:39:41. > :39:46.as a turning their backs on something they dislike. Let me ask
:39:47. > :39:53.you, as a Brit, living in Scotland, do you think it would be odd to be
:39:54. > :39:57.here after a yes vote? Yeah, I think it would be very odd indeed. When I
:39:58. > :40:01.first moved to Scotland it never occurred to me that there was a
:40:02. > :40:04.group of people who felt there was intense difference between the
:40:05. > :40:07.English and Scottish and Britain was divided T would be very strange to
:40:08. > :40:11.feel one lives on the same island but in a different country. Have you
:40:12. > :40:14.been treated like that as the you have been living, clearly you have
:40:15. > :40:19.chosen to make Scotland your home, so you don't feel like you are not
:40:20. > :40:23.welcome here? Generally not, it is not until very recently that there
:40:24. > :40:28.has begun to feel a difference between people perceived as English
:40:29. > :40:34.and people certificate received as Scottish -- perceived as Scottish, I
:40:35. > :40:40.find it strange and unfortunately. Neal sorry we can't see, do you
:40:41. > :40:43.believe it is driven by a nationalism or a sense of coming of
:40:44. > :40:48.age. What do you think is behind this? I think it is driven by a kind
:40:49. > :40:52.of collective madness from the advantage points of the millions of
:40:53. > :40:57.Scots who don't live in Scotland. And we vastly outnumber those who
:40:58. > :41:02.do. This is just astonishing to behold. I live in the United States,
:41:03. > :41:06.but still feel myself every inch a Scotsman. But this is a bit like
:41:07. > :41:11.Colorado seeking its independence, or if you want a European version it
:41:12. > :41:15.is a little bit as if a member of the United Kingdom is opting to
:41:16. > :41:20.become Slovakia, because that is just how important Scotland will be
:41:21. > :41:22.in the world if it takes this extraordinary and economically
:41:23. > :41:27.suicidal step. I think from the advantage point of an economic
:41:28. > :41:30.historian this is obviously going to be a disastrous move, we are just
:41:31. > :41:37.seeing how big a disaster it will be. It is worth saying how munda
:41:38. > :41:41.Chris, ous the Scottish nationalists have been throughout the campaign
:41:42. > :41:47.talking about the benefits to Scotland, there is no benefits,
:41:48. > :41:50.Scotland will lose heavily with this divorce, I'm sure Tom must feel that
:41:51. > :41:55.and why he feels regret about what is happening. This will be, make no
:41:56. > :41:59.mistake a disaster, the sad thing is we have made the case so negatively
:42:00. > :42:02.when there is clearly a positive case to be made for the United
:42:03. > :42:10.Kingdom. As Fraser Nelson said earlier in the programme. The last
:42:11. > :42:14.statement made I can agree with. If this happens in the yes sense, then
:42:15. > :42:22.later historians will to a large extent I think blame the no campaign
:42:23. > :42:26.for its inadequacies, and blame Cameron for not agreeing to a
:42:27. > :42:32.three-part referendum. If you go back to Neal Ferguson, I hope that
:42:33. > :42:36.he won't mind me reminding him as a Scottish expatriot that he was the
:42:37. > :42:40.author of the famous press statement a number of years ago calling my
:42:41. > :42:47.country the Belarus of the west. And saying that it should be wound up.
:42:48. > :42:52.That is exactly what... Hold on a second. That is exactly what you
:42:53. > :42:57.will be voting for. I know that Harvard is place of civilised gent
:42:58. > :43:04.tillity, and I know you will allow me to speak. What I'm saying to you
:43:05. > :43:12.is this, once argued that there was, that this nation was inadequate and
:43:13. > :43:16.that in fact its assets should be offloaded and be recalled north
:43:17. > :43:21.Britain, I don't think you can speak impartially given that background
:43:22. > :43:27.which I know you can't indicate you didn't say it. You can't talk
:43:28. > :43:32.impartially about this. If I may I'm being entirely impartial, if I may
:43:33. > :43:37.answer, that I'm being entirely impartial, you are voting to become
:43:38. > :43:42.Belarus, this won't turn Scotland into some fancy Scandinavian place,
:43:43. > :43:50.it will be an impoverished back water. I admire some of your
:43:51. > :43:54.writings, not all. But what you have just said is blatant nonsense. Let
:43:55. > :43:58.me bring you in. You get a real sense of the passions that are
:43:59. > :44:03.clearly going to be toe foremost right now -- to be at the foremost
:44:04. > :44:07.right now. Is that civil campaign, have you felt intimidated one way or
:44:08. > :44:12.another? If you spend too much time on Twitter you almost feel
:44:13. > :44:15.uncivilised and threatened. Generally a civilised debate. At
:44:16. > :44:19.each end you get people who get very angry about things. Because you have
:44:20. > :44:22.extremists at either end of the debate it has made people feel there
:44:23. > :44:25.is something of a difference between the Scottish and everybody else.
:44:26. > :44:30.When there genuinely isn't. If you look at all the survey, the social
:44:31. > :44:35.attitude surveys for Britons and Scotland, you find that the
:44:36. > :44:39.attitudes of the Scottish and British on almost everything are
:44:40. > :44:44.verging on identical, there is no difference between us culturally and
:44:45. > :44:48.socially it is exaggerated by the campaigns. This is extraordinary,
:44:49. > :44:51.there are major differences in political culture and voting
:44:52. > :44:58.patterns between the two countries, and there have been since the 1980s.
:44:59. > :45:02.This is in no way an anti-English campaign, the Scots applauded the
:45:03. > :45:05.English team when they entered the arena at Celtic park at the
:45:06. > :45:08.beginning of the Commonwealth Games, this is an issue with governance and
:45:09. > :45:12.self-determination. I said what it was doing was exaggerating
:45:13. > :45:16.differences between peoples that don't exist which is a very
:45:17. > :45:20.different thing. There are a couple of key points there, do you think
:45:21. > :45:24.that relations between the Scots and, if you like, the English would
:45:25. > :45:27.improve after this, do you think there is a chance, or do you think
:45:28. > :45:33.this is the start of a much bigger sense of federalism for the whole of
:45:34. > :45:38.the UK now? That's an easy question to answer historically, because when
:45:39. > :45:42.Scotland was an independent state its relations with England were
:45:43. > :45:46.extremely bad. As your earlier report mentioned the border between
:45:47. > :45:50.the two countries was more or less a permanent warzone, I won't say that
:45:51. > :45:54.will happen any time stone. The acrimony will only get worse, when
:45:55. > :45:59.we get down to the nitty gritty, if there is a yes vote of who exactly
:46:00. > :46:03.will bear the burden of the national debt and where the oil revenues will
:46:04. > :46:08.go. This will get much uglier than it is. The idea that Tom says we
:46:09. > :46:13.will some how get on better after a divorced suggests he has never been
:46:14. > :46:19.through a divorce. Thank you all very much indeed. Now just before we
:46:20. > :46:29.go we can show you the front page of tomorrow's Times. This is a TNS poll
:46:30. > :46:34.and excluding the "don't noes" those figures rest at exactly 50% for the
:46:35. > :46:41.yes campaign, 50% clearly for the Better Together. That does not
:46:42. > :46:46.include the "don't knows" but that is the poll leading the Times
:46:47. > :46:51.tomorrow, a TNS poll which tells you at the moment it is too close to
:46:52. > :46:55.call. That is it from all of us from here, from Edinburgh tonight there
:46:56. > :46:56.are nine days left until polling day, thank you for joining us, good
:46:57. > :47:25.night from all of us here. Good evening, it will be chilly in
:47:26. > :47:29.the morning with a few patches of mist and fog, the fog should lift
:47:30. > :47:31.pretty quickly through the morning and then we are into a decent day
:47:32. > :47:33.with light