:00:08. > :00:14.Tonight, how did this become Team Westminster, versus Team Scotland.
:00:15. > :00:19.The PM was virtually on his knees today begging the people of Scotland
:00:20. > :00:23.to vote no. I would be heartbroken if this family of nations that we
:00:24. > :00:27.have put together and that we have done such amazing things together,
:00:28. > :00:31.if this family of nations was torn apart. We will ask the Chief
:00:32. > :00:36.Secretary to the Treasury and Scottish MP which team he feels more
:00:37. > :00:41.part of. What would happen to the UK's place on the world stage if
:00:42. > :00:45.Scotland goes it alone? We talk to the former NATO secretary-general
:00:46. > :00:48.George Robertson and the SNP's Keith Brown.
:00:49. > :00:53.President Obama's about to tell America that its campaign against
:00:54. > :01:04.ISIS will intensify. We will ask the former head of US counter terrorism
:01:05. > :01:10.how that should be done? Good evening, if you are fed up with
:01:11. > :01:14.the effing Tories, David Cameron pleaded today, you can think again.
:01:15. > :01:18.This is totally different, with the tone of a desperate boyfriend the
:01:19. > :01:22.Prime Minister ditched his pride and party to beg a country of people who
:01:23. > :01:26.don't much like him not to leave. There are few things in his
:01:27. > :01:30.professional life he could ever have wanted more. The reason is simple,
:01:31. > :01:33.if the UK breaks up under his watch it is the only thing he will be ever
:01:34. > :01:38.remembered for. He was in Edinburgh today and back next Monday. The one
:01:39. > :01:41.person genuinely pleased to see him is one Alex Salmond who believes the
:01:42. > :01:50.presence of all Westminster party leaders there is helping him.
:01:51. > :01:53.News tonight about Lloyd's? That's right, after a few days where
:01:54. > :01:56.Alex Salmond had reasons to have a bigger and bigger grin on the
:01:57. > :02:01.campaign trail, a couple of reasons for the no side to feel a bit more
:02:02. > :02:05.cheerful tonight. In the last few minutes RBS and Lloyd's who employ
:02:06. > :02:09.thousands of people, just in this city, and right across Scotland have
:02:10. > :02:14.confirmed that if there is a yes vote they will move their
:02:15. > :02:21.headquarters down to England. If you live in this city and you have been
:02:22. > :02:24.hearing economic warning aplenty from Westminster, and not convinced
:02:25. > :02:28.about whether or not they are real, that news tonight may cause some
:02:29. > :02:31.people to think again, or certainly those undecided to understand that
:02:32. > :02:38.according to the no side there is a very real threat to them and their
:02:39. > :02:41.incomes too. What is the mood tonight with the Westminster
:02:42. > :02:46.contingent in full swing during the day? After Westminster I suppose
:02:47. > :02:52.woke up in a nightmare having dosed their way through two long years of
:02:53. > :02:57.this campaign, it did feel, here in this city, a bit panics in the way
:02:58. > :03:01.the trio arrived today. By the same token for some on the other side in
:03:02. > :03:05.a sense it provided some of that emotion, that feeling from the gut
:03:06. > :03:10.that campaign has been yearning for. In terms of whether or not it will
:03:11. > :03:19.change any minds, in a funny way, having been out and about today, it
:03:20. > :03:31.felt like a bit of a side sideshow from the real campaign. You would
:03:32. > :03:34.never have known something was brewing in Edinburgh's polite city
:03:35. > :03:38.centre. But what was about to happen? We are not sure we have been
:03:39. > :03:42.told David Cameron is here today. We know he's meant to be out on the
:03:43. > :03:46.streets but obviously he has come straight to the financial district.
:03:47. > :03:49.I don't understand why he's in Scotland, not actually talking to
:03:50. > :03:54.the public, like he's supposed to be doing. When David Cameron arrived,
:03:55. > :04:00.through the back, he knew the union is now on the line. Instinct, not
:04:01. > :04:03.economics wrote the script. I think people can feel it is a bit like a
:04:04. > :04:06.general election, that you make a decision and five years later you
:04:07. > :04:10.can make another decision if you are fed up with the effing Tories, give
:04:11. > :04:16.them a kick and maybe we will think again, this is totally different to
:04:17. > :04:21.a general election. This is a decision about not the next five
:04:22. > :04:27.years, it is a decision about the next century. Not so polite now.
:04:28. > :04:32.There are just eight days until he could become the last-ever Prime
:04:33. > :04:37.Minister of Great Britain as we know it. He has come to talk to voters to
:04:38. > :04:42.listen to them, he has certainly spoken plainly and from the heart.
:04:43. > :04:46.But controlled visits like this, despite the chaos outside aren't
:04:47. > :04:50.exactly diving into the fray of the campaign.
:04:51. > :04:55.Ed Miliband tried to show he cared, in front of a "friendly" audience. I
:04:56. > :04:59.say don't choose an irreversible separation, choose to stay together.
:05:00. > :05:06.Not least because it is Labour votes that have shift today yes. Nick
:05:07. > :05:13.Clegg did at least brave the street. Whether a mercy mission or madness,
:05:14. > :05:16.the trio were trying to counter the independence campaign's energy. Yes
:05:17. > :05:22.shops on high streets. What has the last week been like?
:05:23. > :05:26.This week has been busy, I thought it would ease off today as time went
:05:27. > :05:30.on. But it is getting busier. The shop was really busy today. You
:05:31. > :05:37.could hardly move in here at some stages. And visitors from the UK
:05:38. > :05:41.parties gave Scotland's master of soundbites a key line. We have jobs
:05:42. > :05:44.in Scotland protecting the National Health Service, they are concerned
:05:45. > :05:48.this last gasp effort seems to be with their own jobs, that is the
:05:49. > :05:51.contrast between the breadth and reach of Team Scotland and the
:05:52. > :05:55.narrow focus of Team Westminster, that is why I think we are
:05:56. > :06:00.decisively winning the campaign on the ground. It is not decisive yet,
:06:01. > :06:04.but it has taken Westminster too long to hear this. This is the
:06:05. > :06:10.vision we have for your country. This fight and it is a fight has
:06:11. > :06:14.been happening for more than two long years. This high street was
:06:15. > :06:18.covered in posters until they were torn down in the middle of the
:06:19. > :06:21.night. It has been a lengthy and fierce campaign. I feel like I have
:06:22. > :06:25.run an American presidential campaign. It feels like that. It has
:06:26. > :06:28.been difficult at times, but at the same time we're knocking doors and
:06:29. > :06:32.people are telling us every day I'm voting no. The real campaign doesn't
:06:33. > :06:36.feel like it belongs to any politician. It belongs to the
:06:37. > :06:40.street. And there is a sense something has started that just
:06:41. > :06:45.can't be stopped. And that has implications for the whole of the
:06:46. > :06:51.UK. Perhaps it started long before all this. Are you voting for
:06:52. > :06:54.origins? Keep your voice down. Creating the Scottish Parliament
:06:55. > :06:58.when he was in the cabinet was meant to kill the argument for
:06:59. > :07:02.independence, instead are we witnessing the inevitable erosion of
:07:03. > :07:06.the status quo. You have to remember this, when I was first examining for
:07:07. > :07:11.this the Labour executive in Scotland, the Labour in Wales, led
:07:12. > :07:14.by Neil Kinnock, all refused devolution, why, because they were
:07:15. > :07:18.running before the nationalists. Where you are right nationalists
:07:19. > :07:23.have got stronger and stronger. Wasn't it Labour's decision to
:07:24. > :07:28.create the Scottish Parliament that inevitably might mean the union
:07:29. > :07:31.breaks up? Well, it was the Labour Party recognition that the Scottish
:07:32. > :07:33.Parliament eventually went on to say that there should be a Scottish
:07:34. > :07:37.Parliament. We agreed with that. I then said it should be everywhere
:07:38. > :07:44.else. All politicians have had a sharp reminder straight from the
:07:45. > :07:47.streets of Scotland, voters wants and needs don't always stay the
:07:48. > :07:52.same. With over a week before the vote, neither might the shape of the
:07:53. > :07:55.country. That was Laura Kuensberg reporting
:07:56. > :08:00.there. In a moment we will be talking to Lord Robertson, the
:08:01. > :08:06.former secretary-general of NATO about the implications for a new UK
:08:07. > :08:11.or for a new Scotland on the world stage if the vote goes to a yes next
:08:12. > :08:17.week. But in the meantime I think we can speak to Danny Alexander, the
:08:18. > :08:22.chief secretary to the Treasury in Inverness. Thank you for your time
:08:23. > :08:27.tonight, we have seen an awful lot of emotion in the last 48 hours. I'm
:08:28. > :08:32.wondering how you, a Scot, are feeling tonight, whether you share
:08:33. > :08:37.that emotion? I'm a proud Scot and Highlander, I'm a brought Briton and
:08:38. > :08:42.European too. Of course this is something which is about who we are
:08:43. > :08:45.as a country, about our history, about the shared endeavours we have
:08:46. > :08:50.engaged in over very many years. Of course there is emotion there too. I
:08:51. > :08:54.think the principal thing today is there are some hard-headed economic
:08:55. > :08:57.fact, which has raised its head in the debate today, which is showing
:08:58. > :09:02.to people again just how serious this is, and just how damaging
:09:03. > :09:06.independence would be for jobs, for prosperity, for the funds that we
:09:07. > :09:10.have for our public services. Of course those things are facts but
:09:11. > :09:14.they are also emotional too. But people don't want to live in a
:09:15. > :09:17.country if we make the wrong decision and vote yes next week we
:09:18. > :09:23.will cause all those problems for people. It was interesting hearing
:09:24. > :09:26.David Cameron today recognise the "effing Tories", we don't know if
:09:27. > :09:33.that was a slip of the tongue or very conscious, but he knows they
:09:34. > :09:38.are hated there. The Lib Dems have 11 seats, you have not, could you
:09:39. > :09:42.have taken a firmer role in the campaign from the start? I have been
:09:43. > :09:46.taking a full role from the start, and making my views known from the
:09:47. > :09:53.start. What went wrong, presumably it is not in the place you would
:09:54. > :09:57.like it to be now? Right? We always expected that the referendum would
:09:58. > :10:03.get tighter as you got closer to the day, but I think that what we have
:10:04. > :10:07.seen over the last few days is a real crystallisation of the choice
:10:08. > :10:10.for people, where you have on the one hand an economic risky,
:10:11. > :10:14.dangerous idea of independence, which of course represents change,
:10:15. > :10:18.but I think change for the worse. And the change that you get by
:10:19. > :10:24.voting no, a stronger parliament within the UK, a stronger economy
:10:25. > :10:28.within the UK, a safer, faster form of change for Scotland. That is the
:10:29. > :10:33.choice people are facing and my sense is people are coming my way.
:10:34. > :10:37.You say risky and talked about fears, I wonder would you admit if
:10:38. > :10:40.the campaign was rather heavy-handed, there was too much
:10:41. > :10:43.fear and loathing and not enough love and passion? You are asking me
:10:44. > :10:47.questions as if some how the referendum is over. The referendum
:10:48. > :10:50.is not over. There are seven, eight days of campaigning left. Those are
:10:51. > :10:55.important days because there are a lot of people who are still
:10:56. > :10:59.undecided. There are votes to win. And what I'm saying is the choice
:11:00. > :11:06.crystallises into a very positive argument for the change we get if we
:11:07. > :11:09.stay as part of the United Kingdom. The extra political strength that
:11:10. > :11:12.Scotland gets with the more powers, and the economic strength we get
:11:13. > :11:17.from being part of the strongest economic recovery in the G 7. You
:11:18. > :11:20.wouldn't be here if the devo max question was on the ballot paper at
:11:21. > :11:28.the beginning, everyone could have saved a huge headache with that? The
:11:29. > :11:31.choice on the ballot paper is the best choice, it was a democratic
:11:32. > :11:35.mandate. You don't think it was a mistake not to have three questions?
:11:36. > :11:43.It was the only choice after the democratic mandate after the 2011
:11:44. > :11:48.election. The SNP won an election on the basis of the the results. We
:11:49. > :11:53.worked to make sure it was legal and fair. What people are seeing today,
:11:54. > :11:58.on day when major businesses are speaking up, that independence is
:11:59. > :12:02.such a risky choice for prosperity. Fair enough, let's look ahead,
:12:03. > :12:05.Alastair Carmichael has said he will resign and help Team Scotland
:12:06. > :12:12.negotiate if it is a yes vote, will you? No, I'm on Team Scotland right
:12:13. > :12:16.now. I'm on Team Scotland and arguing for Scotland, to stay within
:12:17. > :12:20.the United Kingdom. I'm as passionate and committed to Scotland
:12:21. > :12:25.as any nationalist politician. Look the issue here is how do we make
:12:26. > :12:30.sure that over these final days of the campaign, we focus on the
:12:31. > :12:33.massive economic risks of independence, we spell that out.
:12:34. > :12:38.Today has been a Black Wednesday for Alex Salmond, we have seen Lloyd's
:12:39. > :12:43.this evening, we have seen Standard Life, BP and Shell, big companies,
:12:44. > :12:45.big employers in Scotland who are saying this really matters for jobs
:12:46. > :12:50.and prosperity. Alex Salmond says they are not going to leave and
:12:51. > :12:55.wouldn't be building new buildings if they were? Do you really believe
:12:56. > :12:59.that? I don't, I think we should listen to those companies who are,
:13:00. > :13:05.and those employers in Scotland who are making the point powerfully
:13:06. > :13:08.today that jobs and prosperity, as well as mortgages and growth in
:13:09. > :13:12.Scotland all depend on making sure we keep the UK together. And they
:13:13. > :13:18.may not leave if it does break up. If it is a yes, your job would be to
:13:19. > :13:22.negotiate the rest of the union's deal against the interests of your
:13:23. > :13:27.own constituents. That is pretty untenable isn't it? My job over the
:13:28. > :13:32.next eight days is to make sure we present as awful and passionate a
:13:33. > :13:36.positive case for keeping the UK together and make sure no-one in
:13:37. > :13:40.Scotland votes... You are refusing to say you will stay in the job if
:13:41. > :13:45.it is a yes vote? Continue to serve Ly my constituent, that is my
:13:46. > :13:49.primary duty and one I take incredibly seriously come what may.
:13:50. > :13:53.I will be on Team Scotland, today, tomorrow for as long as it takes. At
:13:54. > :13:58.some stage you will have to choose between a job working in a
:13:59. > :14:04.Westminster Government, if it is a yes vote, and an allegance to a new
:14:05. > :14:09.country that needs you -- allegiance to a new country that needs you? I'm
:14:10. > :14:12.not speculating about a result I'm confident will be a no vote. Because
:14:13. > :14:17.the case for voting no is so strong. It is a case about delivering change
:14:18. > :14:20.of the right sort for Scotland and case of avoiding something that
:14:21. > :14:25.would be incredibly difficult for this country. Help me work through a
:14:26. > :14:28.no vote. There will still be, we understand, more economic powers
:14:29. > :14:37.granted to Scotland, income tax and so on we have been hearing about. So
:14:38. > :14:40.would that make you then an MP in a Scottish seat deciding England and
:14:41. > :14:45.Wales' spending when the rest of the UK couldn't hold you accountable,
:14:46. > :14:51.because Scotland would be doing its own economics for the most part? I'm
:14:52. > :14:55.already an MP for a Scottish constituency deciding spending for
:14:56. > :14:59.the whole of the United Kingdom. If income tax is devolved to Scotland?
:15:00. > :15:01.You are referring to spending and spending matters are already
:15:02. > :15:04.determined in the Scottish Parliament. How much money is spent
:15:05. > :15:08.on health, how much money is spent on education. Unnen those will be
:15:09. > :15:12.included in new powers to Scotland, is that right? You are not going to
:15:13. > :15:16.change any of the spending in terms of the new powers to Scotland? The
:15:17. > :15:22.point I'm making is the spending hours are already with the Scottish
:15:23. > :15:27.Parliament. So we decide budget all locations for departments at --
:15:28. > :15:30.allocations for departments at a UK level and the Scottish Parliament
:15:31. > :15:35.gets it via the formula. We have heard income tax is one of the major
:15:36. > :15:39.issues for change, if Scotland is deciding its own income tax, and you
:15:40. > :15:43.are working as chief secretary to the Treasury, presumably with George
:15:44. > :15:46.Osborne on a budget, deciding the income tax rates for the people in
:15:47. > :15:50.the rest of the UK, we can't hold you accountable at all? Let's not
:15:51. > :15:54.speculate on the result of the next general election just yet. You have
:15:55. > :15:57.been speck late on banks and big business, I'm asking you how your
:15:58. > :16:04.position would work in either way? That is completely wrong. I haven't
:16:05. > :16:08.been speculating on what banks and big business will be doing, I have
:16:09. > :16:11.been commenting on the profoundly important statements those companies
:16:12. > :16:15.have been making today. When a company like Standard Life says it
:16:16. > :16:19.would, unfortunately, sadly, have to relocate its business to London,
:16:20. > :16:22.that is not some sort of decision that they make lightly. They make it
:16:23. > :16:26.on the basis that they regard that as the best way to protect their
:16:27. > :16:29.customers under the new circumstances. When we hear Lloyd's
:16:30. > :16:32.and other banks making clear they would have to do the same, again
:16:33. > :16:37.that is not something they say lightly. They say it having thought
:16:38. > :16:43.about it and talked to the board and the senior people in those
:16:44. > :16:46.companies. When the people of Scotland respond to. That When you
:16:47. > :16:50.dismiss it as speculation, it is a fact. When the people of Scotland
:16:51. > :16:53.respond to that, as many I have spoken to over the past couple of
:16:54. > :16:59.days saying all they are trying to do is scare monger and drive us
:17:00. > :17:04.towards them instead of any kind of approach that sounds attractive to
:17:05. > :17:09.Scotland, you are doing it again aren't you? I think the approach
:17:10. > :17:15.most attractive for most Scots is the approach that says we want a
:17:16. > :17:18.more powerful, more responsible parliament, but whilst remaining the
:17:19. > :17:22.financial, economic, wider security we get from being part of the UK.
:17:23. > :17:26.That is what I, as a Liberal Democrat, have believed in for all
:17:27. > :17:29.of my time in politics. A federal solution for Scotland within the
:17:30. > :17:35.United Kingdom. That is what is so excite beg the step that we can take
:17:36. > :17:40.after a no vote in the referendum but I don't consider it could be
:17:41. > :17:45.scaremongering for companies and people like Sir Ian Woods to set out
:17:46. > :17:49.the facts. People need to know the facts and not just the nonsense from
:17:50. > :17:53.the SNP Thank you for your time. Over the next week we will speak to
:17:54. > :18:06.senior figures from the yes campaign in getting their thoughts on. That
:18:07. > :18:10.what of the UK standing alone on the international stage. No better man
:18:11. > :18:16.to answer the question is the man who ran NATO, Lord Robertson rob,
:18:17. > :18:20.and Keith Brown the SNP's veterans' minister joins us.
:18:21. > :18:25.What do you think will happen? The first thing that will happen is the
:18:26. > :18:28.break-up of Britain will mean the break-up basically of the second
:18:29. > :18:33.military and diplomatic power in the west. And destablise the west, just
:18:34. > :18:37.at a moment when ISIS is rampaging in the Middle East and when
:18:38. > :18:42.President Putin is waving his nuclear weapons in the air. That
:18:43. > :18:45.would be a serious destablisation, which I think would have
:18:46. > :18:51.reprecussions way beyond Scotland and the United Kingdom. It would
:18:52. > :18:55.also lead to the dismemberment of the British Armed Forces. That is
:18:56. > :19:01.strong, dismemberment of the British Armed Forces? It would be, the SNP
:19:02. > :19:08.plan to take two frigets out of the Navy, and patrol boats out of the
:19:09. > :19:12.Navy, and Eurofighters. It is 12% isn't it? The amount of critical
:19:13. > :19:16.mass, the amount of training, pit lots, the background, the logistic
:19:17. > :19:20.tales, all of that, yes you start to dismember the Armed Forces of this
:19:21. > :19:25.country, you reduce the budget by ?2. 5 billion, that is what the SNP
:19:26. > :19:34.say they want out of the UK defence budget. That is serious
:19:35. > :19:39.reprecussions for England. You are talking about England, not Scotland,
:19:40. > :19:42.they are not as badly affected? They will have a Dad's Army rather than
:19:43. > :19:49.being part of the British Armed Forces. They will have 3,500 troops,
:19:50. > :19:57.that is maybe 800 active combat troops. So Scotland will build up,
:19:58. > :20:02.they claim in a plan for defence that was described by the retiring
:20:03. > :20:06.deputy Supreme Allied Commander as being purely amateur. They are
:20:07. > :20:11.saying it is more like 15,000. Eventually. It sounds woefully
:20:12. > :20:14.melodramatic some of this, doesn't it, it is not really going to take
:20:15. > :20:19.us off from being the second military power in the western world?
:20:20. > :20:24.It is going to have to happen. Can you imagine the process of
:20:25. > :20:29.negotiation. You are unpicking you know 300 years of integration in the
:20:30. > :20:37.armed force, 300 years of integration right across the boar.
:20:38. > :20:41.-- board. That will disrupt any effort we have. And the embassies.
:20:42. > :20:45.You have talked to NATO member countries about the possibilty of
:20:46. > :20:50.Scotland joining. What is the take on it? The key thing is that you
:20:51. > :20:53.have got to be able to contribute security in order to benefit from
:20:54. > :21:04.common security. That is the key thing. I negotiated the entry of the
:21:05. > :21:07.former communist countries, the Baltic Republics, Romania, Slovenia
:21:08. > :21:13.and Slovakia, that wasn't an easy process. Slovakia, the people there
:21:14. > :21:17.were basically told if you elect Mr Mectia as the Prime Minister of
:21:18. > :21:22.Slovakia, don't expect to get into NATO or the European Union. So you
:21:23. > :21:26.know it is not a question of we have got an army, a Navy and air force
:21:27. > :21:30.and we are in a strategic position and we will come in. If you are
:21:31. > :21:35.going to disarm the nuclear deterrent of one of the founding
:21:36. > :21:46.members of NATO you won't be welcome into a nuclear alliance. Take it to
:21:47. > :21:49.Keith Brown. You are talking about automembership of NATO that doesn't
:21:50. > :21:55.look like it will happen? Members of the UK Armed Forces currently who
:21:56. > :21:59.want to join the Scottish defence force will be in horror at the
:22:00. > :22:04.contempt of being described as Dad's Army. And George Robertson waving
:22:05. > :22:07.around President Putin as a danger was the same person who went to
:22:08. > :22:12.Moscow to try to get Russia to sign up to NATO. We can't take it too
:22:13. > :22:16.seriously. We talk about break up, but we are breaking down just now.
:22:17. > :22:22.We have an historic low of armed forces in Scotland, we have no naval
:22:23. > :22:25.vessels, we don't carry out the basic patrols we should. General
:22:26. > :22:30.Sharif said of the UK Government that they had cut to the bone and
:22:31. > :22:34.hollowed out the Armed Forces we want to increase the Armed Forces.
:22:35. > :22:38.Why would they let you in as antinuclear? 20 of the 28 countries
:22:39. > :22:45.in NATO are non-fluke clear countries. -- nonnuclear countries.
:22:46. > :22:49.We are situated in the North Atlantic, a very important strategic
:22:50. > :22:52.position for NATO. We have the same standardised operating procedures
:22:53. > :22:55.and standardised equipment that all NATO countries have, we are a
:22:56. > :22:59.democratic country, the real issue is, most people hearing these things
:23:00. > :23:02.bandied around will think there is no reason on earth why NATO would
:23:03. > :23:07.not want to see an independent Scotland as NATO. You would keep
:23:08. > :23:11.your typhoon, will you still be player on the stage? We would want
:23:12. > :23:16.to play, the part we would want to play is a democratic, peaceful,
:23:17. > :23:20.affluent north European country, a foreign policy and defence posture
:23:21. > :23:24.commensurate with that position. That seems entirely sensible and far
:23:25. > :23:28.preferable to the people of Scotland then as with George Robertson's
:23:29. > :23:35.cronies being involved in illegal wars in Iraq. We would want to play
:23:36. > :23:39.in the charter and play responsible international relations. If there
:23:40. > :23:45.were strikes against ISIS in Syria, would you want to deploy there?
:23:46. > :23:48.First of all the creedo of NATO is NATO acts together. If there is an
:23:49. > :23:52.take all countries have license to support each other. But the nature
:23:53. > :23:55.of that support and involvement in NATO operations is up to individual
:23:56. > :23:58.NATO countries, what we have said is any involvement that we would have
:23:59. > :24:02.would be democratically endorse bid the Scottish Parliament and Scottish
:24:03. > :24:09.Government and consistent with the UN Charter. That seems a far more
:24:10. > :24:12.statesmanlike response, rather than Tony Blair getting involved in Iraq
:24:13. > :24:16.previously, that is sustainable. Can you imagine the kind of response you
:24:17. > :24:26.will have from countries like Spain or Italy or like Belgium with their
:24:27. > :24:32.own secession problems and saying we want to be part of that, they won't
:24:33. > :24:36.thank you? I have served alongside Dutch marines and armed personnel
:24:37. > :24:40.who get involved with NATO exercise with Scottish personnel. I wonder if
:24:41. > :24:47.George Robertson knows how many Armed Forces personnel there are in
:24:48. > :24:52.Scotland, it is up to Napoleonic levels. We want to undertake the
:24:53. > :24:55.proper maritime patrols and air patrols and having reasonable
:24:56. > :24:59.standard of defence in Scotland which we don't have currently in the
:25:00. > :25:04.UK. We don't have defences we need, we have nuclear weapons and ?100
:25:05. > :25:10.billion being further spent on nuclear weapons. It is ridiculous to
:25:11. > :25:19.say you will be disarming the nuclear deterrent, it is
:25:20. > :25:24.disingenious? I this is the SNP don't care. If it led to the
:25:25. > :25:29.British... It doesn't literally take away our capabilities, it just means
:25:30. > :25:32.we have to do a bit more? A week ago President Putin reminded the world
:25:33. > :25:39.that his was a country with nuclear weapons. You wanted them in NATO.
:25:40. > :25:45.You wanted Putin in NATO. You have made that point. It is a bit of a
:25:46. > :25:49.joke actually for an SNP, MSP says that I went to invite Russia to join
:25:50. > :25:53.NATO and they are the ones who are actually going to get the position
:25:54. > :25:59.where we disarm. Thank you very much both of you.
:26:00. > :26:02.We have three planned Bs was Alex Salmond's memorable response to the
:26:03. > :26:06.currency question when asked during the last televised debate, much has
:26:07. > :26:10.been made of the uncertainty of what Scotland does for money if it votes
:26:11. > :26:14.yes, and what the markets will make of it. Today the Governor of the
:26:15. > :26:17.Bank of England today the Treasury Select Committee that keeping the
:26:18. > :26:23.pound would be expensive for the Scots. We set out the options that
:26:24. > :26:30.await an independent Scotland. As much as it belongs to England it is
:26:31. > :26:38.our pound as well as your pound. If we don't have a currency union
:26:39. > :26:47.what's Plan B? I'm seeking a mandate for the pound sterling. I presume
:26:48. > :26:51.the flag is a saltire, I presume the capital is Edinburgh, but you can't
:26:52. > :26:54.tell us what currency we will have. The question of what currency an
:26:55. > :26:59.independent Scotland would use has dominated much of the campaign. And
:27:00. > :27:03.we're no closer to a clear answer. An independent Scotland would have
:27:04. > :27:06.four basic currency option, the first and the preferred option of
:27:07. > :27:09.the Scottish Government would be to join a formal currency union with
:27:10. > :27:15.the rest of the UK. The second would be to continue to use the pound
:27:16. > :27:18.without any formal agreement. Much as Montenegro uses the euro, or
:27:19. > :27:23.Panama uses the US dollar. Option three would be to join the euro, or
:27:24. > :27:27.finally it could always launch its on currency. A new currency is seen
:27:28. > :27:32.as unrealistic in the short-term, and the euro is pretty unpopular at
:27:33. > :27:35.the moment. So really there are two immediate options. Scotland and the
:27:36. > :27:42.rest of the UK have shared a currency for more than 300 years. In
:27:43. > :27:45.fact this 1909 coin is one of the first minted after the Act of Union.
:27:46. > :27:52.Most think this sterling zone has worked pretty well. In terms of
:27:53. > :27:55.trade linkages, existing bank loans and the wider financial system,
:27:56. > :28:00.preserving it makes sense. It doesn't mean a formal currency union
:28:01. > :28:04.is straight forward or likely. A formal currency union means things
:28:05. > :28:07.carry on much as they are now. Scotland will continue to use the
:28:08. > :28:11.pound and the Bank of England will act as the Central Bank and lender
:28:12. > :28:16.of last resort for both Scotland and the UK. But the UK Government and
:28:17. > :28:20.opposition have both ruled this out? There is no way they could entertain
:28:21. > :28:24.a currency union with Scotland without having the full control over
:28:25. > :28:28.Scotland's finances, in every respect. Of course interest rates
:28:29. > :28:33.would be set by the Bank of England in London. Financial regulation
:28:34. > :28:39.would be under London's control and crucially fiscal policy, that is to
:28:40. > :28:43.say borrowing would also have to be under London's control. In fact
:28:44. > :28:46.Scotland would end up with no independence at all, you could argue
:28:47. > :28:51.they would be less in control of their affairs than now. In the
:28:52. > :28:55.absence of a currency union, continuing to use sterling without a
:28:56. > :28:59.formal agreement has become the yes campaign's Plan B. The problem with
:29:00. > :29:03.using someone else's currency unilaterally is you have no lender
:29:04. > :29:06.of last resort. When you get into trouble there is no Central Bank
:29:07. > :29:12.that can issue the currency that you can go to. Not everyone agrees. The
:29:13. > :29:14.free market think-tank, the Adam Smith Institute actually thinks
:29:15. > :29:18.informal use of the pound would be preferable to a formal union. Using
:29:19. > :29:21.the pound with permission means all of the same problems you have with
:29:22. > :29:24.the eurozone, for example, banks know they
:29:25. > :29:27.the eurozone, for example, banks much debt as they need and want to,
:29:28. > :29:31.they can act recklessly and so on, and even if they are insolvent, they
:29:32. > :29:35.will probably be backed up by the Central Bank. If banks know they
:29:36. > :29:37.have to act responsibly and make reserves and they have to make
:29:38. > :29:41.private accommodation in the form of clearing houses when they need to
:29:42. > :29:45.access liquidity they will act more prudently. It is that prudence that
:29:46. > :29:51.the Scottish economy could flourish with, that they would only get with
:29:52. > :29:59.sterlingisation with an informal currency union. Scottish financial
:30:00. > :30:03.institutions may not be entirely comfortable with no lender of last
:30:04. > :30:10.resort. Lloyd's and other banks said they would move south of the border
:30:11. > :30:16.with a yes vote. It could be prepared to hand back
:30:17. > :30:22.great deal of independence using sterling, using the pound without
:30:23. > :30:26.that is possible, I can't imagine those big business staying in
:30:27. > :30:30.Edinburgh without a lender of last resort. Another factor complicating
:30:31. > :30:33.this, technically all new EU member states have to commit to joining the
:30:34. > :30:36.euro. At the moment the situation remains
:30:37. > :30:43.uncertain, it is that uncertainty which is driving the currency market
:30:44. > :30:48.volatility of recent days. Do discuss all this now is John Kay the
:30:49. > :30:53.economist, an LSE fellow, and Anthony Yates, a top official from
:30:54. > :30:58.the Bank of England and from New York, Gillian Tett, assistant editor
:30:59. > :31:02.of the Financial Times. Do you think they will carry on using the pound?
:31:03. > :31:09.Yes I do, I think on Independence Day if it happened nothing much need
:31:10. > :31:12.change or would change. Some would say that is ridiculously niave, if
:31:13. > :31:17.you are not controlling your own currency then it will all go
:31:18. > :31:21.horribly wrong? There is an argument there but it is an argument that
:31:22. > :31:24.says as far as currency is concerned things carry on very broadly as they
:31:25. > :31:33.have for the last couple of hundred years. Anthony Yates, what is the
:31:34. > :31:36.problem? Well the problem is that they won't have access to or control
:31:37. > :31:40.over the resources that the lender of last resort has got, in turn,
:31:41. > :31:44.backed by the Government to bail out their financial sector. The UK
:31:45. > :31:48.Government would still bail them out, our closest partner in trade?
:31:49. > :31:54.I'm not sure that is the case. You can see exactly this struggle going
:31:55. > :31:58.on in the euro-area, trying to negotiate bail-outs for Greece. We
:31:59. > :32:05.did bail out Ireland? We did, and the Scots can gamble on whether we
:32:06. > :32:08.might repeat that after all the approbium and acrimony that will
:32:09. > :32:12.come from political divorce, would they really think that would happen.
:32:13. > :32:20.How is this seen internationally or where you are? Frankly from New York
:32:21. > :32:24.it has come as quite a shock. The markets, investors and frankly
:32:25. > :32:28.diplomats hadn't really woken up to the magnitude of the threat of the
:32:29. > :32:33.yes vote until very recently, really this week. And frankly it looks
:32:34. > :32:39.bizarre from the perspective of America. Americans have watched the
:32:40. > :32:44.eurozone struggle in the last two or three years with a tension between
:32:45. > :32:46.having a currency union without a political union and essentially
:32:47. > :32:53.saying it is ridiculous to have this situation. The idea the Scots could
:32:54. > :32:56.be trying to replicate the eurozone's problems looks peculiar.
:32:57. > :33:00.It goes against the grain of all the chaos we have seen in Europe over
:33:01. > :33:04.the last four years? Europe has certainly messed up its currency
:33:05. > :33:08.union, that is for sure. There are two issues here and they are largely
:33:09. > :33:13.separate issues. One of them is what money do you use in Scotland and the
:33:14. > :33:19.other is who is underwriting failed Scottish financial institutions. Now
:33:20. > :33:22.it is quite as instructive there to ask what these Scottish financial
:33:23. > :33:28.institutions are. Because we're talking about Royal Bank of
:33:29. > :33:34.Scotland, 82% owned by the British taxpayer, Lloyd's, which is not
:33:35. > :33:38.primarily a Scottish institution. Clydesdale Bank, part of National
:33:39. > :33:41.Australia Bank, Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank and Santander. This is
:33:42. > :33:49.sounding like it has already happened again? It has. It could go
:33:50. > :33:53.further. We have seen not just sort of declarations about where banks
:33:54. > :33:57.are going to redomicile, but also we have seen hits in share prices and
:33:58. > :34:01.you will get a contraction in credit. Danny Alexander was saying
:34:02. > :34:06.they have already warned they will go south of the border and of course
:34:07. > :34:10.Alex Salmond has said everyone threatens this at this point in the
:34:11. > :34:14.debate. Do you think from what you know banks do pick up and move? Well
:34:15. > :34:18.certainly they do. I don't see what interest they would have to threaten
:34:19. > :34:22.it, I mean they are operating for their shareholders, they are not,
:34:23. > :34:26.they haven't any political axe to grind in this game. I believe they
:34:27. > :34:31.are going to shift their brass plate, but that is very different
:34:32. > :34:35.from shifting the operational activities which are taking place in
:34:36. > :34:38.parts of Edinburgh at the moment. It is interesting, Gillian Tett, you
:34:39. > :34:41.were talking about the falls on the market, particularly on Monday which
:34:42. > :34:46.came as the real shock, and when I put that to the SNP they said it has
:34:47. > :34:50.been a gradual thing, it is because of uncertainty, it would happen
:34:51. > :34:54.whatever was going on right now because that's, you know, there is a
:34:55. > :34:59.period of uncertainty that comes before an election, do you buy that?
:35:00. > :35:02.Well I don't actually. What is very interesting right now is this has
:35:03. > :35:08.been the year when global investors have really woken up to the concept
:35:09. > :35:12.of the geopolitical events creating unexpected shocks. And frankly this
:35:13. > :35:18.is yet another surprise that has come out of the wood work as far as
:35:19. > :35:22.American investors are concerned and provided nasty reminder that
:35:23. > :35:29.economics is not just about numbers but politics and culture and society
:35:30. > :35:33.too. I was with Christine Lagarde the head of the IMF for an interview
:35:34. > :35:37.we are running on Saturday. She points out this fascinating and
:35:38. > :35:42.important issue that the world today is marked out by growing economic
:35:43. > :35:45.integration and political disintegration, Scotland is one
:35:46. > :35:50.example and Ukraine is another. That is a big problem for investors to
:35:51. > :35:54.grapple with, as they look at countries like England and Scotland
:35:55. > :35:59.and work out where to put the money. It is interesting to hear Scotland
:36:00. > :36:04.and the Ukraine to be put in the same sentence and it opens up the
:36:05. > :36:08.opportunity for more of this outside it. Is there a chance of a new
:36:09. > :36:12.currency? I think they will be forced into it eventually. It is the
:36:13. > :36:18.only viable and credible option that can be stuck to. I don't think they
:36:19. > :36:21.could credibly be do anything else. You would imagine they would have to
:36:22. > :36:25.stick the pound is what you are saying? In the next two years there
:36:26. > :36:29.is no option, it would take two years to set up the Central Bank.
:36:30. > :36:33.George Osborne can't stop them doing it, he can protest now but after it
:36:34. > :36:37.has happened he has to let them use the pound, right? That I think is
:36:38. > :36:41.the key point. To go back to what Gillian was saying, we are now
:36:42. > :36:46.living in a world which as far as economics and capital markets are
:36:47. > :36:51.concerned we are completely integrated. That transcends
:36:52. > :36:57.boundaries and exactly what contract and law you are making a contract
:36:58. > :37:04.for, where the head office of a particular institution is located. .
:37:05. > :37:09.It isn't important any more and away from the way the politics of a
:37:10. > :37:12.country is performing. The jobs Alex Salmond was talking about today were
:37:13. > :37:17.those of Ed Miliband, David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
:37:18. > :37:22.Point I am making today is Team Scotland in terms of its breadth and
:37:23. > :37:25.reach sun precedented in terms of campaign in Scotland, where as team
:37:26. > :37:28.Westminster seems narrowly focussed today on the leaders of Westminster
:37:29. > :37:33.parties who are more concerned about their own jobs. Alex Salmond talking
:37:34. > :37:36.today, no surprise he knows the Westminster boys play rather well
:37:37. > :37:40.for his heartland what of their jobs, or what of the unintended
:37:41. > :37:46.ramifications that a yes vote could have on all their parties and plans.
:37:47. > :37:49.Joining me now to discuss this is Phil Collins from the Times and
:37:50. > :37:54.Isabel Hardman from the Spectator. It is only when you start to take
:37:55. > :37:57.yourself into the what ifs of next Thursday that you realise how
:37:58. > :38:02.complicated things are going to get. What are you hearing behind the
:38:03. > :38:06.ripples of Westminster about any plot now that is building against
:38:07. > :38:10.the PM? There is definitely a plot that is building against David
:38:11. > :38:13.Cameron. There are enough Tory MPs who really dislike him, who are
:38:14. > :38:18.quite keen to use a possible yes vote to get rid of him. However,
:38:19. > :38:23.what I found really interesting in my conversations with senior Tory
:38:24. > :38:27.MPs, backbenchers, ministers, is there is a sizeable contingent of
:38:28. > :38:31.the party who want it to keep a cool head and who will try to do
:38:32. > :38:34.everything they can to stop a vote of no confidence succeeding in the
:38:35. > :38:38.Prime Minister. Do you think he could survive being Prime Minister
:38:39. > :38:42.of a lesser Great Britain? Yes, I think he could, it would be
:38:43. > :38:48.incredibly dishonourable even for the backbenchers in their current
:38:49. > :38:52.move in a moment of constitutional crisis to unseat the Prime Minister.
:38:53. > :38:57.It is ridiculous, there is no obvious replacement so I think he
:38:58. > :39:00.will survive T but to lose even one country is careless and his
:39:01. > :39:05.authority will be hugely diminished by this. Authority is what Cameron
:39:06. > :39:08.has over Ed Miliband. To lose authority is a very important
:39:09. > :39:12.commodity for him. What he would be doing is to say to the British
:39:13. > :39:17.public in 2015 I'm going to condemn you to the next parliament for two
:39:18. > :39:20.years which is entirely dominate bid separating from Scotland and then a
:39:21. > :39:22.referendum on the European Union. What kind of little England
:39:23. > :39:26.parliament would that be. Does anyone at the moment think the
:39:27. > :39:30.election is not going to be in May if there is a yes vote? There are a
:39:31. > :39:35.number of Tories who think if there is a yes vote it should be moved.
:39:36. > :39:39.Moved forward straight away? Some think there should be an election
:39:40. > :39:44.immediately, some think it should be after Scotland goes independent. We
:39:45. > :39:50.have to repeal that and put in other legislation. That would be the
:39:51. > :39:53.smallest thing. I think we will muddle on and carry on. What about
:39:54. > :39:57.Ed Miliband's position in this, presumably gets the criticism for
:39:58. > :40:01.not having got the Labour voters out in the heartlands of Scotland where
:40:02. > :40:06.they have voters? He has a more serious party but more loyal party.
:40:07. > :40:10.His backbenchers don't have the same anti-pathy towards him as David
:40:11. > :40:14.Cameron. Every plot against David Cameron is 50% of the problem at
:40:15. > :40:17.land and 50% people hating them. With Ed Miliband it would be more
:40:18. > :40:20.about the problem in hand and whether he could persuade his
:40:21. > :40:23.backbenchers to stick by him. I don't think Ed Miliband has a
:40:24. > :40:27.problem right now. Underneath all the attention on Scotland Labour has
:40:28. > :40:31.had quite a good run in the national polls. Doesn't have a problem now, I
:40:32. > :40:35.think he has in due course. To be the leader of a Government which is
:40:36. > :40:38.elected with 40 Scottish MPs who are soon to be declared foreign
:40:39. > :40:41.nationals would be entirely legitimate.
:40:42. > :40:46.Just talk us through, without looking ahead too far, but we have
:40:47. > :40:49.this referendum fixed for 2017, which would then be without
:40:50. > :40:57.Scotland. What impact would that have? There is no evidence actually
:40:58. > :41:00.that the electorate of Scotland are more pro-EU than the overall
:41:01. > :41:02.electorate. It won't make a huge difference you haven't got the
:41:03. > :41:05.Scottish people voting in that. But the authority of the Prime Minister
:41:06. > :41:10.will have been diminished. What you have seen in this campaign is that
:41:11. > :41:14.arguments about risk really struggle to work and there is a real strong
:41:15. > :41:19.anti-politics thread to this whole referendum campaign. So if you have
:41:20. > :41:24.got all the political establishment arguing for one side, the status
:41:25. > :41:28.quo, stay where we are, and all the other side arguing emotionally to
:41:29. > :41:33.leave. That can really work. You could get a replay of this. It makes
:41:34. > :41:35.it a very, very tricky couple of years, and especially under a
:41:36. > :41:40.Cameron Government. Thank you very much for coming in.
:41:41. > :41:47.John Kerry has arrived in Baghdad to attempt to forge a new coalition of
:41:48. > :41:51.the willing. Middle East nations united against ISIS, and to affirm
:41:52. > :41:56.the international community's duty to protect Iraq. Obama will have a
:41:57. > :41:59.speech tomorrow morning to pose an escalation to the military response
:42:00. > :42:06.in the region, stopping short of promising boots on the ground, while
:42:07. > :42:11.Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Syria are united in their opposition to ISIS,
:42:12. > :42:16.will Kerry help mould this unlikely coalition. Talk us through this?
:42:17. > :42:19.We're expecting a significant milestone, there will be another in
:42:20. > :42:24.two weeks on the fringes of the General Assembly meeting in New
:42:25. > :42:27.York. We think we will get tonight an intensification of what America
:42:28. > :42:30.has been doing. More air strikes, more US troops to go to Iraq to
:42:31. > :42:35.train and advise, more Iraqi forces to be stood up. They are talking
:42:36. > :42:39.about a National Guard that would include special Sunni and Kurd
:42:40. > :42:44.units, trying to knit the nation back together again. The thing we
:42:45. > :42:49.won't get an answer on is whether or not the strikes will extend into
:42:50. > :42:56.Syria at this point. My hunch would be no, not yet. What position would
:42:57. > :43:05.America be in vis a vis Assad? If they want, well it is an open
:43:06. > :43:09.question in terms of legality, it is simpler with regard to Iraq. The
:43:10. > :43:12.position is still complicated with regard to Syria. The other thing
:43:13. > :43:18.that will happen and we think it will happen at the meeting in New
:43:19. > :43:23.York in two weeks time is the issue of a wider inter-National Coalition.
:43:24. > :43:27.It is at that point the UK might be asked to join strike, but the
:43:28. > :43:33.neighbours of Syria and Iraq will be asked to do a lot more. Turkey,
:43:34. > :43:36.Saudi Arabia, Jordan, those countries, they are the ones who
:43:37. > :43:40.will be asked in two weeks time to step forward. Key things like
:43:41. > :43:45.couldn't the Turk take slightly more control of that border. They will be
:43:46. > :43:50.asked to nail their commitments to the sticking place on that. Frankly
:43:51. > :43:54.we don't know yet how committed some of those countries like Turkey are
:43:55. > :43:57.to making the new US strategy work. There is a lot of moving parts and
:43:58. > :44:02.unanswered questions. Thank you very much indeed. From
:44:03. > :44:08.Washington is Richard Clarke, a senior figure in the Clinton and
:44:09. > :44:12.Bush administration's National Security Council, who resigned from
:44:13. > :44:15.service in 2003 and remains critical of the US Government's disregard
:44:16. > :44:27.towards the threat of terrorism. We talk to him now. You tried to warn
:44:28. > :44:32.the Bush administration about Al Qaeda in spring 2001, you were
:44:33. > :44:38.ignored, why did that happen? That's a topic one can talk about for
:44:39. > :44:43.hours. But essentially the Bush administration came in with its own
:44:44. > :44:50.agenda. And its agenda did not include worrying about Al-Qaeda. And
:44:51. > :44:54.it wasn't changed by facts. And that is much the same situation that we
:44:55. > :45:00.found with Obama in the last few months. Where he wanted his agenda
:45:01. > :45:07.to be something other than worrying about terrorism in the Middle East.
:45:08. > :45:11.For a long time the facts didn't change the White House priorities.
:45:12. > :45:18.Do you think he actually ignored warnings then of rising Islamist
:45:19. > :45:22.militia in Syria. Do you know that? Certainly, if you look at public
:45:23. > :45:25.statements made by people in his administration, in the state
:45:26. > :45:29.department, for example, and the intelligence community. Statements
:45:30. > :45:34.they made in congressional hearings and inquiries. They were warning,
:45:35. > :45:38.very dramatically, and yet the administration did very little over
:45:39. > :45:42.the course of this year until the last month.
:45:43. > :45:48.So do you think this is kneejerk now what he's doing. Do you think he's
:45:49. > :45:52.trying to catch up for time or is it the right response too late? It is
:45:53. > :45:59.the exact opposite of kneejerk. This President is known for being very
:46:00. > :46:02.cautious, very deliberative, very analytical, very coldly calculating
:46:03. > :46:09.and not being swayed by the media and not being swayed by emotion. And
:46:10. > :46:13.he, more than anything else, wants to avoid doing what past Presidents
:46:14. > :46:17.have done. Which is to make decisions about the use of US
:46:18. > :46:21.military force in the Middle East without due consideration. So he has
:46:22. > :46:30.been very, very slow in coming to this decision. Not kneejerk at all.
:46:31. > :46:32.Thank you very much. While we have been on air Clydesdale Bank have
:46:33. > :46:36.said they will also leave Scotland in the event of a yes vote. A sadly
:46:37. > :46:38.that is all we have time for tonight. Kirsty is here tomorrow,
:46:39. > :47:12.good night from all of us here. It was a beautiful day today up and
:47:13. > :47:13.down the UK. More fine weather in the forecast. Subtle variations