:00:07. > :00:12.The Referendum is over, the polling stations are closed and the
:00:13. > :00:14.ballot-boxes are locked. Now will it be independence or the union for
:00:15. > :00:16.Scotland? Parliament of a country standing on
:00:17. > :00:35.Parliament of a country standing on than 300 years?
:00:36. > :00:39.ALEX SALMOND: I'm honoured to announce that we will hold
:00:40. > :00:44.Scotland's Referendum, an historic day when the people will decide
:00:45. > :00:49.Scotland's future. Delegates, it's game on for
:00:50. > :00:57.Scotland. I assume the flag is saw tire, I
:00:58. > :01:01.assume our capital will still be Edinburgh Burkes you still can't
:01:02. > :01:09.tell us what currency we'll have. We love our land, we love our people,
:01:10. > :01:13.we want freedom. If you don't like this government,
:01:14. > :01:22.it won't last forever, but if you leave the United Kingdom, that will
:01:23. > :01:32.be forever. This is everyone's flag, everyone's
:01:33. > :01:35.country, everyone's culture. I think it's an extremely important day for
:01:36. > :01:52.Scotland, probably the most important day of my life.
:01:53. > :01:59.Good evening from Edinburgh. There has been no day like it in the
:02:00. > :02:02.history of Scotland. This referendum has electrified the country and by
:02:03. > :02:06.first light we should know where stands Scotland. Outside the
:02:07. > :02:10.Scottish Parliament where we are with the Palace of Holyrood House
:02:11. > :02:13.behind us, we're here almost two years after the referendum on
:02:14. > :02:16.whether Scotland should become an independent country was announced
:02:17. > :02:19.jointly by the First Minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond and the Prime
:02:20. > :02:23.Minister, David Cameron. But it was in the last six weeks that the
:02:24. > :02:27.campaign really caught fire and today from the island of aran to
:02:28. > :02:32.Aberdeen, from Orkney to Dumfries, there were queues at polling
:02:33. > :02:35.stations saltires, Union flags, Yes banners and badges saying no.
:02:36. > :02:39.Tonight we'll be speaking to politicians, writers and business
:02:40. > :02:43.people. But first our chief correspondent Cubans Cubans has been
:02:44. > :02:47.sampling the atmosphere all day. She joins us from the count at Ingleston
:02:48. > :02:52.show ground on the edge of Edinburgh. What have you been
:02:53. > :02:57.hearing? Tense doesn't really begin to cover it. If you've ever imagined
:02:58. > :03:01.what an election count for a whole country looks like, well this is it.
:03:02. > :03:06.In this huge hall, and the counters here have an enormous job ahead of
:03:07. > :03:10.them. I've been hearing something really not entirely unexpected but
:03:11. > :03:15.rather extraordinary. I'm told that by about 7.00 this evening turn-out
:03:16. > :03:19.had already hit about 75%. So these counters who are just now starting
:03:20. > :03:25.to get down to work have a long night and a very, very big job ahead
:03:26. > :03:30.of them. Apparently in some parts of the country turn-out was hitting
:03:31. > :03:34.94%. The big question, of course, is which box did they put a cross in.
:03:35. > :03:38.The polls have been extremely tight and some people though are willing
:03:39. > :03:43.to make predictions. One of them is with us here tonight. Peter Kellner
:03:44. > :03:47.from the polling company YouGov, you are courageous enough to put a
:03:48. > :03:52.number on it this evening. Yes, our prediction tonight is that No has
:03:53. > :03:56.won this referendum by 54% with Yes getting 46%. We've polled 1800
:03:57. > :04:01.people today on-line after they voted, people we spoke to earlier
:04:02. > :04:05.this week, so we can look at what happened to real people and there's
:04:06. > :04:10.ban clear shift today, a small but clear shift from Yes to No. We also
:04:11. > :04:14.think that the No voters in the end were slightly more determined to
:04:15. > :04:19.turn-out than the Yes voters. Last night, Laura, I said there was an
:04:20. > :04:22.80% chance of a No victory, now at the risk of looking utterly
:04:23. > :04:27.ridiculous in eight hour's time, I would say it's a 99% chance of a No
:04:28. > :04:33.victory. We appreciate you taking the risk of looking wrong by the
:04:34. > :04:38.morning, but the polls in this particular event, can it be trusted
:04:39. > :04:43.in the same way as others? Can they, with such huge turn-out and an
:04:44. > :04:45.unprecedented question being asked? The unprecedented question does
:04:46. > :04:48.cause difficulty because we can't find out what happened last time
:04:49. > :04:52.because there isn't a last time. The turn-out helps us, as a pollster I'm
:04:53. > :04:55.more nervous about predicting the results of low turn-out elections
:04:56. > :04:59.like European elections because you're never quite sure who will
:05:00. > :05:01.turn out at all. With a high turn-out election you're pretty sure
:05:02. > :05:06.that anybody who says they're going to say yes or no will turn out. But
:05:07. > :05:09.today we think the No voters, at the margin, that little bit more
:05:10. > :05:17.determined to vote than the Yes voters. Thank you very much. Once
:05:18. > :05:25.again, that prediction from YouGov tonight is 54%, 46 with the unionist
:05:26. > :05:31.and No campaign in the lead. That gap is bigger that the polls have
:05:32. > :05:36.said in the recent days. Speaking to people today, casting their ballots,
:05:37. > :05:38.making sometimes those very last-minute decisions, it's been
:05:39. > :05:44.striking how difficult some people have found it to make their minds
:05:45. > :05:46.up, even at this late stage. The stakes really, forgive the cliche,
:05:47. > :05:49.for a lot of people could not feel any higher. Out and about in the
:05:50. > :05:59.streets of Scotland there was a tension you could almost taste.
:06:00. > :06:07.They have chosen, but are yet to know. Which path their lives, their
:06:08. > :06:15.country will take. Tonight they wait. He waits to know if he'll be
:06:16. > :06:20.the first leader of a different country, a Scotland that breaks
:06:21. > :06:30.away. Or a place that stays together, even if divided.
:06:31. > :06:38.More voters came than ever before. But this flowering of democracy can
:06:39. > :06:42.have an ugly face. You spend money or war but can't defend the
:06:43. > :06:45.pensioners. So you turn your back on the world. Not the rest of the
:06:46. > :06:49.world. You will mate. We've been a caring and sharing society. See
:06:50. > :06:54.that, that's your referendum for me. How are you going to vote? I'm
:06:55. > :07:00.voting yes. Why? Because inwant independence. Westminster have
:07:01. > :07:04.robbed me of my vote. What do you think will happen? It could go
:07:05. > :07:10.either way. I think Yes will get there. What will it mean to you if
:07:11. > :07:15.it is a Yes? Torture. This is the start of something big, I think,
:07:16. > :07:21.maybe for people to really get out there and make their voices heard.
:07:22. > :07:26.Still undecided but the polling station is open. Still undecided.
:07:27. > :07:32.Why haven't you? I don't know about all about what's happening. What are
:07:33. > :07:37.you going to do? I don't know. I'll have a good think today. For some it
:07:38. > :07:40.couldn't matter more, Paul worries in an independent Scotland he would
:07:41. > :07:45.lose his job in Glasgow's ship yards. For me personally, yeah,
:07:46. > :07:51.exactly, it's concerning what might mean for me, I might have move away,
:07:52. > :07:53.go down south to work. It's really concerning, it might have a
:07:54. > :07:57.significant impact on my own personal life. So you might move if
:07:58. > :08:02.it's Yes? It might be the case that I have to move to get alternative
:08:03. > :08:05.employment elsewhere. This is tense, it is a difficult, for a very simple
:08:06. > :08:11.reason. People here have just never had to make a decision this big
:08:12. > :08:20.before. But tonight he waits to know if his arguments for the union have
:08:21. > :08:23.beaten back a clamour for change. Political organisation for
:08:24. > :08:32.independence has stretched into new pockets of the country. So will
:08:33. > :08:38.disillusion SEEP back in if their hopes are not met? Apprehensive, but
:08:39. > :08:46.excited. Hoping for an independent result. Blame is already being cast.
:08:47. > :08:50.Here workers race to paint over a polling station dobbed with
:08:51. > :08:54.threatening graffiti. I'm saying I was accused of encouraging the
:08:55. > :09:00.graffiti on this hall which is a load of tripe. Predictions have
:09:01. > :09:00.though nearly always put the unionists
:09:01. > :09:06.though nearly always put the Edinburgh, the Yes campaign have
:09:07. > :09:09.worked their own intricate numbers. What they claim, the biggest ever
:09:10. > :09:17.operation in Scotland to get the vote out. If those efforts don't
:09:18. > :09:21.work though, activist Fran Gilhooley will be nothing less than broken
:09:22. > :09:26.hearted? I will be utterly, utterly gutted. It's everything we do. It's
:09:27. > :09:30.everything we are. You say it's everything to you. Right now,
:09:31. > :09:35.technically we are a sovereign state because now we have the decision
:09:36. > :09:41.now, right now. Are we going to keep it? Or are we going to hand it back?
:09:42. > :09:54.Because now we've actually got it, for this day. And this evening,
:09:55. > :09:59.excitement, yes, anxiety too. After more than 800 days of argument, this
:10:00. > :10:05.country knows good and bad things can come to those who wait.
:10:06. > :10:09.We'll be hearing from Laura later in the programme. But I'm joined by the
:10:10. > :10:13.Scottish businessman Jim McColl, Catherine MacLeod who used to advise
:10:14. > :10:16.Alastair Darling and the journalist John Harris. First of all, Jim
:10:17. > :10:21.McColl, you really backed the Yes campaign, you sent out more than
:10:22. > :10:24.half a million letters, that poll was only one poll, but it would be
:10:25. > :10:29.presumably incredibly disappointing for you? Yes, it would be. I think
:10:30. > :10:33.it's early in the evening and it's very brave to make a prediction like
:10:34. > :10:37.that. When you look at what Laura was saying about turn-out in some
:10:38. > :10:43.areas of 94%, how has it felt to you in the country? Real excitement and
:10:44. > :10:46.expectation and hope. It's a kind of carnival atmosphere. People are
:10:47. > :10:49.excited about it. Do you think it has galvanised people to think about
:10:50. > :10:52.politics the way they haven't done before? Absolutely, you hear the
:10:53. > :10:57.numbers on the turn-out. It's galvanised the population. I tell
:10:58. > :11:00.you who did galvanise the population, Katlehong RIN, that was
:11:01. > :11:04.the Yes campaign -- Catherine, that was the Yes campaign, you have to
:11:05. > :11:07.take your hat off to them, they absolutely came from behind and made
:11:08. > :11:12.the weather. I don't know if they made the weather, they certainly
:11:13. > :11:16.came from way behind although I think it was expected that the polls
:11:17. > :11:22.would always tighten. It was visible. I agree with Jim, it was an
:11:23. > :11:25.exhilarating and exciting campaign. I was in Glasgow yesterday and there
:11:26. > :11:30.were kids on the school talking about it on the street. My nephew in
:11:31. > :11:34.Inverness, there was excitement between him and his pals to vote
:11:35. > :11:37.today. That suggests there was a great deal of excitement and the
:11:38. > :11:41.accusation levelled at the Better Together Campaign run by your
:11:42. > :11:45.ex-boss was that it was consistently negative and that really played
:11:46. > :11:50.badly during the campaign? Well, consistently negative. I think in
:11:51. > :11:53.Scotland at the moment asking awkward questions, I think Alistair
:11:54. > :11:56.ended the campaign asking the same questions he asked at the beginning
:11:57. > :12:00.and what he would say is that he still didn't get an answer. If it is
:12:01. > :12:04.negative to say what is our currency, are we going to be a
:12:05. > :12:09.member of the European Union or NATO or what is going to happen? Perhaps
:12:10. > :12:16.that's then it was negative. But perhaps it might be how do you make
:12:17. > :12:19.no a positive? If Alistair had got sensible answers he might have
:12:20. > :12:23.changed questions. And Alistair's old boss Gordon Brown had to ride to
:12:24. > :12:27.the rescue at the end. How did that feel. We're hearing suggestions that
:12:28. > :12:30.Gordon Brown was put up to lead the Better Together campaign but David
:12:31. > :12:35.Cameron vetoed that? I have absolutely no idea. You're closer to
:12:36. > :12:40.these people than me. I've never heard that. I always intended Gordon
:12:41. > :12:44.to enter the campaign, his style is different from the other. I don't
:12:45. > :12:48.think he did ride to the rescue, the pair played the roles they were
:12:49. > :12:52.expect today play. I'll come to you John Harris, but we're going to
:12:53. > :12:56.speak to the chair of the Yes campaign, Denis Canavan. First of
:12:57. > :13:01.all, you probably heard on the basis of that one YouGov poll, Peter
:13:02. > :13:07.Kellner saying that actually it looks like 54 versus 46 that it will
:13:08. > :13:13.be a No victory. Can I have your reaction to that early poll, nothing
:13:14. > :13:17.definite about it, of course? That one poll does not tally with the
:13:18. > :13:26.reports that we're getting back from our campaign workers. We have fought
:13:27. > :13:29.a very, very successful grass-roots community-based campaign with
:13:30. > :13:34.thousands of trained campaign workers stretching all the way from
:13:35. > :13:42.the northern isles to the Borders of Scotland. I think at this stage I
:13:43. > :13:46.would rather take the feedback from them, albeit anecdotal rather than
:13:47. > :13:49.just one particular opinion poll. We'll see once the ballot-boxes
:13:50. > :13:56.opened and the votes are counted. I am still optimistic about a good
:13:57. > :14:01.result. But if that vote turns out to be true, and in fact in any way
:14:02. > :14:04.Better Together has got over the line, what is Alex Salmond going to
:14:05. > :14:10.say to the people of Scotland tomorrow? Well, that will be up to
:14:11. > :14:13.Alex Salmond obviously. I'm not a spokesperson for Alex Salmond. I
:14:14. > :14:19.have always said that as chair of the advisory board of the Yes
:14:20. > :14:23.Scotland campaign we're a broad, inclusive campaign consisting of
:14:24. > :14:28.representatives of various parties. If you're asking me what I would say
:14:29. > :14:33.in that event, I would say whatever the result I think the people of
:14:34. > :14:37.Scotland ought to work together to build a better Scotland, a more
:14:38. > :14:42.prosperous Scotland and a fairer Scotland. Thank you very much.
:14:43. > :14:48.Coming back to you, John Harris. Who are the victors in all this, are
:14:49. > :14:53.they people rather than Westminster? Yes, in a sense that people have
:14:54. > :14:56.either become acquainted for the first time, or reacquainted with
:14:57. > :15:00.thinking about politics and the tremendously profound way, whether
:15:01. > :15:05.Yes or No. I'm sort of an instinctively a greater fan of the
:15:06. > :15:10.Yes campaign. In the last weeks, you're saying, down the street, I
:15:11. > :15:14.would speak to waiters, bus drivers, there's a natural conversation about
:15:15. > :15:17.it, not forced. It's extraordinary. It's turned round that politics
:15:18. > :15:21.becomes part of everybody's discourse. Yes, when it slips out of
:15:22. > :15:25.the way that Westminster politics has tended to do, which is all
:15:26. > :15:29.couched into meaningless phrases about hard working families and a
:15:30. > :15:34.future fair for all and when it becomes about the fundamentals.
:15:35. > :15:36.These are the things we're told in England will alienate people,
:15:37. > :15:41.talking about good society and stuff like that. But what you find is that
:15:42. > :15:44.that's what gets people talking. Except that it may be that the
:15:45. > :15:47.appeal to people's pockets and the scare factor of what might happen to
:15:48. > :15:51.business might have played well. I know you were critical of that but
:15:52. > :15:57.actually it matters to people. People were told by business, by
:15:58. > :16:00.Standard Life by RBS that actually there was going to be a scare, that
:16:01. > :16:03.businesses would fold, they would take their headquarters out of
:16:04. > :16:09.Scotland. What do you make of that? I think there was a lot of
:16:10. > :16:13.scaremongering going on, around the pound to start with, where Cameron
:16:14. > :16:17.clearly identified three conditions needed, and what we got from the
:16:18. > :16:22.other side was we're not going to negotiate. That's scaremongering.
:16:23. > :16:28.But at the end of the day, if you have got a big business community
:16:29. > :16:32.which puts its force behind Better Together, then they're the ones that
:16:33. > :16:35.are going to be, push the point across. It was a sample of big
:16:36. > :16:43.businesses. You have to remember that in the UK and in Scotland in
:16:44. > :16:47.particular most businesses are Sme,s small and immediate sized
:16:48. > :16:50.enterprises. We saw a few leaders of some of the big businesses
:16:51. > :16:55.strongarmed by Downing Street to go out after the Yes campaign showed a
:16:56. > :17:00.lead last weekend. Catherine MacLeod, that whole idea of pulling
:17:01. > :17:03.business in and making - do you think it actually would have made
:17:04. > :17:06.any difference indeed whether tomorrow morning we get an
:17:07. > :17:10.independence vote or not to business in Scotland? They said it did. It's
:17:11. > :17:15.to the for me to say that it did or it didn't. I think it was back to
:17:16. > :17:19.the, they probably were strongarmed out. It was better that they were
:17:20. > :17:24.strongarmed out to say what they had to say than saying nothing. But it's
:17:25. > :17:29.actually a facet of Westminster politics that people hate. If people
:17:30. > :17:34.like ASDA and Marks and Spencers and John Lewis say prices will go up and
:17:35. > :17:39.RBS. After being told by David Cameron. Whether after seeing David
:17:40. > :17:43.Cameron or not. It explains quite a shift in the polls towards the end.
:17:44. > :17:47.It explains - I think the Yes vote was always going to harden quickly
:17:48. > :17:51.and when people saw the risk they were prepared to say no. It's not
:17:52. > :17:53.the greatest shame of the No campaign. Business would inevitably
:17:54. > :17:57.say those things, the greatest shame to me was that is it struck me that
:17:58. > :18:01.progressive politics in Scotland in the form of the Labour Party, A,
:18:02. > :18:09.seems to be organisationally broken and seems to have lost the ability
:18:10. > :18:14.to occupy the praise optimist. 30% of VOEFRTS voters endered the idea
:18:15. > :18:19.of saying yesterday. -- entertained the idea of saying yes. When David
:18:20. > :18:21.Cameron vetoed Alex Salmond's plans to put the option of Devo Max on the
:18:22. > :18:24.ballot-paper. He promised there would be new powers for Scotland but
:18:25. > :18:29.they would only be revealed in the event of a No vote today. But as the
:18:30. > :18:34.opinion polls tightened, the No campaign panicked and that resolve
:18:35. > :18:38.flew out of the window. On Monday Cameron, Clegg and Darling promised
:18:39. > :18:41.Scotland lots of presence. Extra revenue raising powers, keeping the
:18:42. > :18:44.Barnett form a and more freedom to spend on the NHS but that went down
:18:45. > :18:48.badly just about everywhere else in the UK. So as our Political Editor,
:18:49. > :18:51.Allegra Stratton reports, whether we wake up to an independent Scotland
:18:52. > :18:52.tomorrow or not, the reality is that a huge political storm is about to
:18:53. > :19:07.blow up. It's 6.00 on Friday 19th September.
:19:08. > :19:11.This is Today with Justin Webb and Jim - the headline this morning,
:19:12. > :19:17.Scotland has voted for independence, bringing to an end a 300-year-old
:19:18. > :19:24.political union. Alex Salmond declared a new dawn had broken over
:19:25. > :19:29.a free and fair Scotland... A whirlwind is tearing through
:19:30. > :19:33.Westminster. The articles of union were signed three centuries ago here
:19:34. > :19:38.on the site of the Palace of Whitehall, but now, at dawn, the
:19:39. > :19:43.last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom rings Alex Salmond to
:19:44. > :19:48.acknowledge they're deFURNG. -- defunct. David Cameron makes a
:19:49. > :19:51.statement and calls an emergency Cabinet while liaising with the Bank
:19:52. > :19:54.of England to steady the markets. Parliament is recalled on Saturday,
:19:55. > :19:58.the first time since the Falklands, this time it's more serious. Many
:19:59. > :20:05.people in the Conservative Party and many people on the back benches
:20:06. > :20:11.think this would be a tragedy and consequently those people will
:20:12. > :20:14.believe as I do that -- the Prime Minister needs to consider his
:20:15. > :20:19.situation considerably. David Cameron will face calls for a motion
:20:20. > :20:24.of No confidence that could trigger an early election. He might embrace
:20:25. > :20:28.this and go to the British people on a platform of who powers he would
:20:29. > :20:35.separate Scotland. But there are people in his own party who think he
:20:36. > :20:39.might have to resign itself. And a caretaker Prime Minister could be
:20:40. > :20:42.within a matter of weeks much then there are others and this faction
:20:43. > :20:46.even includes his fiercest critics who think David Cameron should stick
:20:47. > :20:49.around and sort out a mess of his own making. Undoubtedly David
:20:50. > :20:53.Cameron will have a lot of pressure against him. The man who lost
:20:54. > :20:57.Scotland will be the jibe used. But it's very difficult to think of an
:20:58. > :21:02.immediate alternative. We're into such unforeseen circumstances. Such
:21:03. > :21:05.unstable; the Tory MPs are very angry both what will have led to a
:21:06. > :21:10.possible Yes and also what's been said over the last TEB days. It's a
:21:11. > :21:15.very, very -- ten days, it's a very, very unstable situation. Scottish
:21:16. > :21:20.secretary Alistair Carmichael said he would resign government to join
:21:21. > :21:24.Alex Salmond's 18-month negotiating team. Ministers like Danny Alexander
:21:25. > :21:27.would be under pressure to force suit. There would be immediate
:21:28. > :21:31.demands to limit voting rights of Scottish MPs, bad for Labour and the
:21:32. > :21:35.Lib Dems ahead of the election. At the Cabinet meeting last week
:21:36. > :21:38.Newsnight understands that the Chancellor said to the assembled
:21:39. > :21:41.Cabinet ministers any contingency planning going on in their
:21:42. > :21:44.departments should be stopped immediately, no E-mails, no nothing.
:21:45. > :21:49.Of course, conversations might be going on off line, but nonetheless,
:21:50. > :21:51.it's fair to say that the machinery of government does not feel
:21:52. > :21:56.particularly ready for Scottish independence. Many in Westminster
:21:57. > :21:59.talk about the ramifications of Scotland going it alone, taking some
:22:00. > :22:07.20 to 30 years to be fully understood.
:22:08. > :22:13.It's 6.00 on Friday 19th September, good morning, this is Today with
:22:14. > :22:19.Justin Webb. The headline this morning: Scotland has voted to
:22:20. > :22:21.remain part of the United Kingdom. In his concession speech, Alex
:22:22. > :22:29.Salmond challenged Westminster to deliver on its promise of home rule
:22:30. > :22:32.for Scotland. The bleary eyed of Downing Street exhale, no
:22:33. > :22:37.territorial carvup of the UK will happen on their watch. Alex Salmond
:22:38. > :22:40.greets the dawn with talk of more referendums, but at 7am David
:22:41. > :22:44.Cameron makes a statement. He's got problems nonetheless. I believe
:22:45. > :22:50.Parliament needs to be recalled as a matter of urgency, I think it must
:22:51. > :22:55.be recalled on Monday. In order that Parliament meets and discusses these
:22:56. > :23:00.issues before the conference and at least sends out a very strong signal
:23:01. > :23:04.that it now believes that the English voice needs to be heard.
:23:05. > :23:08.Conservative politicians are furious that it is Gordon Brown, the man
:23:09. > :23:12.they ousted from Downing Street four years ago who is now writing the
:23:13. > :23:16.powers that will be handed over from Westminster to Holyrood. In the next
:23:17. > :23:19.few weeks the three parties have to come to some agreement about what
:23:20. > :23:23.powers they will actually hand over to Scotland. Gordon Brown's
:23:24. > :23:27.timetable sees proposals put forward by November and at the end of
:23:28. > :23:30.January there will be concrete measures. Some Cabinet ministers are
:23:31. > :23:35.already saying it's not possible to see how they can meet that
:23:36. > :23:39.timetable. To stem Tory fury there's
:23:40. > :23:43.speculation David Cameron will, on Friday, announce measures to protect
:23:44. > :23:48.English MPs. Labour will fiercely resist anything that makes Scottish
:23:49. > :23:53.MPs second-class. But even Ed Miliband's own former aid believes
:23:54. > :23:55.change is needed -- aide. First, you have to have a Constitutional
:23:56. > :23:58.Convention in England. Secondly we are going to have change in
:23:59. > :24:01.Westminster. It's clear that the more powers go to the Scottish
:24:02. > :24:04.Parliament the less you can have Scottish MPs voting on the same
:24:05. > :24:09.issues for England. That's got to change in one way or another.
:24:10. > :24:12.Thirdly, though, England is much too centralised, so this isn't just
:24:13. > :24:15.about reducing the influence of Scottish MPs in Westminster, it's
:24:16. > :24:22.about getting English decisions out of Westminster. Up and away out of
:24:23. > :24:25.Westminster indeed. Tomorrow whatever happens much power will
:24:26. > :24:32.begin to be moved from London and another chapter begins for the
:24:33. > :24:36.mother of all parliaments. Parliaments. Joining us from
:24:37. > :24:39.Westminster is the former Conservative Defence Minister Liam
:24:40. > :24:44.Fox. Good evening. This is a hornet's nest. Do you
:24:45. > :24:47.think that David Cameron worked out his strategy the best he could from
:24:48. > :24:51.the beginning? I think whether we think it was a good strategy will
:24:52. > :24:55.rather depend on what the result is. Having spent the day up in Glasgow
:24:56. > :25:03.today I wouldn't be surprised if we got a result of about 55-45. I think
:25:04. > :25:08.there are a number of things we need to do right away. The first is that
:25:09. > :25:11.there will be a lot of healing to be done. There's potentially a lot of
:25:12. > :25:15.bitterness and recrimination. That needs to be handle. That is the
:25:16. > :25:19.first thing. The second thing is to understand the wider issues we have
:25:20. > :25:22.to face. I think there are three, and probably in order of difficulty
:25:23. > :25:28.the easiest first is the sort of policy areas that we might want to
:25:29. > :25:31.have extended devolution in. What is going to be reserved at Westminster
:25:32. > :25:37.and what are these new powers going to be. Let me ask you, Liam Fox,
:25:38. > :25:43.should Devo Max have been on the paper? Would that have obviated all
:25:44. > :25:47.this? Again, it would be depending what it means. What we now need to
:25:48. > :25:52.see is what actually the details are, what are the extra policy areas
:25:53. > :25:55.where devolution might come into and what are the tax varying powers that
:25:56. > :25:59.might be proposed. We need to see the details and really tonight of
:26:00. > :26:04.all nights we have to avoid knee jerk reactions on that. The second
:26:05. > :26:07.area we need to look at is now unavoidable, which is the English
:26:08. > :26:12.question. And the West Lothian question and what now do we do about
:26:13. > :26:15.an imbalance in our constitutional relationship. There are a number of
:26:16. > :26:18.ways we can address that but I think now it will have to be addressed and
:26:19. > :26:23.politicians have ducked the question for too long. The third, but most
:26:24. > :26:27.difficult issue, I think will relate to the financial settlement. And
:26:28. > :26:35.exactly how we see that across the United Kingdom. I've thought for a
:26:36. > :26:39.long time that we needed to look at deprivation indices across the
:26:40. > :26:42.country a little more closely when allocating funding and we have a
:26:43. > :26:45.strong incentive to do that. But do you think that in all this there
:26:46. > :26:51.should be an English Parliament? That is where we're heading if there
:26:52. > :26:56.is a No vote. I'm not in favour of a separate English Parliament because
:26:57. > :26:58.I think that with parish councils, town councils, district councils,
:26:59. > :27:02.county councils, Westminster, the last thing we require is another
:27:03. > :27:07.level of government; but I do think effectively what we must ensure is
:27:08. > :27:11.that Scottish MPs who cannot vote on issues like health and education in
:27:12. > :27:17.Scotland, should not be entitled to vote on health and education in
:27:18. > :27:20.constituencies like mine in north Somerset. It is profoundly
:27:21. > :27:24.undemocratic and unfair. It needs to be dealt with. Do you think the way
:27:25. > :27:27.all this came about essentially was that, you could put it this way,
:27:28. > :27:30.David Cameron was bounced into all this by a failed politician in
:27:31. > :27:34.Gordon Brown, a failed leader and actually it would have been better
:27:35. > :27:39.if this had been an initiative fought out rather than one that
:27:40. > :27:42.seems designed to annoy English Conservative backbenchers, not just
:27:43. > :27:45.Conservative backbenchers. It will not just be Conservative
:27:46. > :27:50.backbenchers, you're quite right. I think a lot of the problems came
:27:51. > :27:52.from the very imbalanced constitutional settlement that came
:27:53. > :27:56.with devolution under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in the first place. The
:27:57. > :28:00.whole question of what happens about governance in England has never
:28:01. > :28:04.properly been addressed. It now does need to be addressed. We are going
:28:05. > :28:07.to get, almost certainly I think tonight, a No vote. Scotland will
:28:08. > :28:11.remain in the union, we therefore have to decide what the new balance
:28:12. > :28:17.inside this union is going to be going forward that gives us the best
:28:18. > :28:20.chance to maintain stability and to diminish some of those divisions
:28:21. > :28:25.that have very sadly emerged in the last few weeks. Liam Fox, thank you
:28:26. > :28:29.very much indeed. Now we're joined by the Times
:28:30. > :28:33.columnist and Conservative peer Danny Finkelstein. Turning to you,
:28:34. > :28:38.Danny Finkelstein, I think we feel in need of what you can give us by
:28:39. > :28:42.way of that incisive analytical brain and from the position of being
:28:43. > :28:48.a Lord of the realm. What do you think has been going on more broadly
:28:49. > :28:51.today, this churn, this change, it may be happening in Scotland but
:28:52. > :28:53.actually the ramifications are for the whole of the United Kingdom no
:28:54. > :28:58.matter what? I think there's going to be quite a serious, as everyone
:28:59. > :29:02.has been saying, sharp English question that comes up tomorrow. I'm
:29:03. > :29:07.slightly puzzled by the suggestion that Gordon Brown forced the Devo
:29:08. > :29:10.Max on to the agenda because actually, the Conservative party had
:29:11. > :29:13.a report that's taken a year to prepare that came out at the end of
:29:14. > :29:18.May on the question of what powers might be devolved. But the two
:29:19. > :29:22.issues on which I think the campaign was bounced and did panic were the
:29:23. > :29:25.time line and the question of the Barnett formula, in other words the
:29:26. > :29:27.question of the Scottish financial settlement. Those two things are
:29:28. > :29:30.going to cause big political trouble. They're going to cause
:29:31. > :29:34.trouble in Parliament because of trying to assemble a Coalition in
:29:35. > :29:37.the Conservative Party that might support the Prime Minister on the
:29:38. > :29:40.Barnett formula and trying to have a Coalition with the Liberal Democrats
:29:41. > :29:44.on the question of what you do for English MPs. Actually, far from it
:29:45. > :29:47.being the case that at the last minute Scotland has been promised a
:29:48. > :29:50.lot of powers, what's really happened is that Scotland has been
:29:51. > :29:56.promised and accelerated timetable that I think will be difficult to
:29:57. > :30:03.deliver. Difficult to deliver, but let's stick with the idea of the
:30:04. > :30:06.Barnett formula because that was something that was desperately
:30:07. > :30:09.needed to be changed as far as the Conservatives were concerned and
:30:10. > :30:12.it's stuck. And it's the one thing that will cause a lot of anger in
:30:13. > :30:15.the rest of the country and it will mean MPs from all parties will dig
:30:16. > :30:19.their heels in? The Barnett formula is a short hand. There are two
:30:20. > :30:23.elements, the Barnett formula itself about how you allocate increases in
:30:24. > :30:26.spending and that's population based and the Barnett formula may need
:30:27. > :30:32.some adjustment but isn't the problem. The basic problem is that
:30:33. > :30:34.of the settlement underneath the Barnett formula in other words
:30:35. > :30:38.Scotland's financial settlement. The Barnett formula therefore being a
:30:39. > :30:41.short hand, what has been promised in the vow isn't actually what
:30:42. > :30:45.everyone is angry about. What everyone is angry about is that
:30:46. > :30:49.Scotland starts with a bigger financial settlement. So, actually,
:30:50. > :30:53.it is possible to revisit that. You just heard Liam Fox talk about
:30:54. > :30:56.revisiting the way that you allocate spending across the whole of
:30:57. > :30:59.government in which Scotland may gain in some areas and lose in
:31:00. > :31:03.others without touching the Barnett formula. Do you think now there's
:31:04. > :31:06.going to be a bigger adjustment, that actually what's going to happen
:31:07. > :31:10.eventually if he fact tow is a move towards a federalism? Everyone said
:31:11. > :31:13.about English votes for English laws which is something I was involved in
:31:14. > :31:17.when I worked for the Conservative Party in developing. Everyone said
:31:18. > :31:20.the way of dealing with that is never to ask the West Lothian
:31:21. > :31:25.question, and what happened in this campaign is that that idea, which
:31:26. > :31:30.Tony Blair clung to, has become untenable. It is absolutely
:31:31. > :31:33.inevitable that there will now be a move towards some sorted of English
:31:34. > :31:37.votes for English laws in one form or another. But it will be very
:31:38. > :31:39.problematic for Labour and, therefore, they will resist it and
:31:40. > :31:42.of course the Conservatives don't have a majority in Parliament.
:31:43. > :31:47.That's what makes the time line difficult. Will they be able to, as
:31:48. > :31:51.they suggested, to actually agree the deal behind the vow between
:31:52. > :31:55.them? I think there are lots of ways in which they might not be able to.
:31:56. > :31:58.I think we're starting a period of great uncertainty, actually. Thank
:31:59. > :32:02.you very much. The BBC's Allan Little has been
:32:03. > :32:06.following the campaigns every step of the way, and he has rushed from
:32:07. > :32:12.the main count to be with us now. You have covered everything. Bosnia
:32:13. > :32:14.to Rwanda, been all over the world. You're back home now and covered
:32:15. > :32:18.this campaign. We're going to see some pictures in a minute or two of
:32:19. > :32:22.what's happened this evening. What's the last, particularly the last six
:32:23. > :32:26.weeks felt like to you? There's been a lot of talk and quite rightly
:32:27. > :32:32.about the atmosphere of menace and intimidation that has sometimes
:32:33. > :32:37.infused this campaign. Atmosphere, relatively few actually incidents.
:32:38. > :32:42.Nobody has been punched in the face. Our Deputy Prime Minister punched a
:32:43. > :32:46.voter in the face in a recent general election, it hasn't here.
:32:47. > :32:51.No, but we heard about intimidation, we tried to get guests on the show.
:32:52. > :32:55.People have been concerned particularly women. There has been
:32:56. > :32:58.some? Yes there has been some but my overwhelming opinion is that this
:32:59. > :33:01.extraordinary national debate has been conducted with civility and
:33:02. > :33:06.mutual respect. You and I both know that most families in Scotland have
:33:07. > :33:10.Yes and No voters within them. People living next door to each
:33:11. > :33:18.other. They disagree with civility and politeness for the most part.
:33:19. > :33:22.This progress has happened in an old and entrenched democracy, this
:33:23. > :33:25.wouldn't have been settled -- Look at this now. What is amazing,
:33:26. > :33:30.everyone is still out on the streets. They're not saying we voted
:33:31. > :33:36.now. You can hear them behind us in Holyrood. Here they are in George
:33:37. > :33:40.Square. The place is full of revellers, it's as if there's, to me
:33:41. > :33:45.there's a reinvigoration of the national debate in the sense that -
:33:46. > :33:47.I'm hearing conversations all the time, unself conscious conversations
:33:48. > :33:53.where people before would say it's not for me, it's for everybody. It
:33:54. > :33:56.is, on both sides. Remarkably empowering and engauging. The Yes
:33:57. > :34:01.campaign started this. They gave up on the conventional media early on
:34:02. > :34:04.and they got very active on social media, started producing their own
:34:05. > :34:06.journalism, their own ways of communicating with each other. I
:34:07. > :34:10.think the difference between the No campaign and the Yes campaign, is
:34:11. > :34:12.that the No campaign has been relatively speaking quite a
:34:13. > :34:16.conventional campaign, passionate of course in defence of the union,
:34:17. > :34:20.people speaking very passionately about that, but the Yes campaign,
:34:21. > :34:22.people have been persuaded to vote Yes, they've been persuaded by
:34:23. > :34:27.people they respect in their own lives and not by people they see on
:34:28. > :34:30.television. That I think has ban very important difference, something
:34:31. > :34:38.quite democratising has been happening. Particularly, not SCLU
:34:39. > :34:42.civil but particularly on the Yes -- exclusively but particularly on the
:34:43. > :34:47.Yes side of the arguments. It's 100 years since the first Scottish Home
:34:48. > :34:50.Rule Bill passed its second vote at Westminster only to be kyboshed by
:34:51. > :34:54.the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. After that home rule
:34:55. > :34:58.stuttered on and off the agenda until the SNP first showed some
:34:59. > :35:02.muscle in the 1967 #0S. But then it was never a match for the dyed in
:35:03. > :35:06.the wool tribal Labour vote that seemed to be as strong as the Forth
:35:07. > :35:11.Rail Bridge. So how did the SNP pull the feet from under the Labour
:35:12. > :35:14.establishment to transform from a protest movement to a party that has
:35:15. > :35:20.brought this country to the brink much independence? Here's Laura
:35:21. > :35:26.again. A song, a dream of a new country for
:35:27. > :35:35.SNP stalwarts, a long time coming, she can hardly believe her eyes.
:35:36. > :35:39.Today is unbelievable. From when we started in 1974, people thought we
:35:40. > :35:48.were dreaming. But our dream is coming true. What was a fringe party
:35:49. > :35:53.fills Inverness' streets, unionists can only look on. I hate to see
:35:54. > :35:59.songs being used as a political weapon, to be honest. How did it get
:36:00. > :36:01.to this. Supporters of independence so emboldened they can take on
:36:02. > :36:08.British Cabinet ministers in the street. You're not at Westminster
:36:09. > :36:13.now, you're standing here as someone who's... And your BBC cronies. They
:36:14. > :36:17.won't tell the truth. The charge, the excitement of Scottish
:36:18. > :36:21.Nationalist politics is new, the power built haltingly in cities,
:36:22. > :36:26.small villages and towns over decades. Few single issue or small
:36:27. > :36:30.parties ever make it from relative object security to the mainstream.
:36:31. > :36:35.And when Alex Salmond was first elected here nearly 20 years ago
:36:36. > :36:41.much beyond local success didn't seem impossible, but the SNP's
:36:42. > :36:45.long-term dream was very far away. For some local members, it even
:36:46. > :36:50.began with ridicule. I can remember my father served his time in the
:36:51. > :36:55.ship yards on Clyde and then he worked in the torpedo fact tree in
:36:56. > :36:58.Alexandria. I remember him coming home and flinging his Labour Party
:36:59. > :37:06.rosette down and said "son, they're not for us". He went out and helped
:37:07. > :37:10.form a branch of the SNP. I joined and I took part in that. I'm
:37:11. > :37:14.reminded at that time of the quote by Gandhi, "first they ignore you,
:37:15. > :37:27.then they laugh at you, then they fight you and then you win". The
:37:28. > :37:34.first solid victory was Winnie ewing. In 1967. On the stump her son
:37:35. > :37:36.told us what she said still goes. She is one of the very few people
:37:37. > :37:55.who tells Alex Salmond who to do. Scotland's oil is now worth a
:37:56. > :38:00.minimum of ?155 million, what are we Scots going to get from it without
:38:01. > :38:06.self-government. Ewing's election, then the oil bounty grew interest in
:38:07. > :38:10.home rule. It's her oil so why are many in sub standard houses. Other
:38:11. > :38:16.MPs followed. A huge Labour majority overturned. In 1979 a majority of
:38:17. > :38:23.Scots who voted chose devolution but too few turned out to make it
:38:24. > :38:27.happen. Despite defeat and through squabbles
:38:28. > :38:31.in the '80s, a more organised and determined party emerged under this
:38:32. > :38:36.man. It's a government of occupation we face in Scotland just as surely
:38:37. > :38:41.as if they had an army at their backs. Alex created a modern
:38:42. > :38:46.political party that could take on the parties of the British state and
:38:47. > :38:51.beat them. In terms of discipline, in terms of their imagination and
:38:52. > :38:55.how they campaigned, in their ability to start researching and
:38:56. > :38:59.start he had KAGT people. But -- educating people. But it was
:39:00. > :39:03.Labour's decision to create the Scottish Parliament which allowed
:39:04. > :39:04.the SNP to get serious. When Scottish voters eventually got their
:39:05. > :39:09.Parliament there were questions about whether the SNP would still be
:39:10. > :39:18.relevant. Instead, devolution gave them a bigger platform. The
:39:19. > :39:22.outsiders turned insiders. The SNP surge in 2011 meant for the first
:39:23. > :39:28.time a vote ongoing it alone was real. And with it so close now, even
:39:29. > :39:32.if there's defeat this week, can the demand fade? A vote against Yes this
:39:33. > :39:39.time they might think it's all over, not going to happen that way.
:39:40. > :39:44.Many Scots share none of this jubilation, but the question first
:39:45. > :39:52.asked by a handful of activists so long ago will this week be answered
:39:53. > :39:58.on every street in the country. Here with us in our studio
:39:59. > :40:06.overlooking the Scottish Parliament building are the writer AL Kennedy
:40:07. > :40:11.and the Spectator Magazine's writer and blog Alex Massie. On that point
:40:12. > :40:14.where Labour offered limited devolution they thought they would
:40:15. > :40:19.shoot the SNP's fox and they did nothing of the sort. No because the
:40:20. > :40:23.SNP managed to present itself as the patriotic body, the will of the
:40:24. > :40:26.Scottish people if you like, it's done so by being different types of
:40:27. > :40:31.organisation in different parts of the country look at some of its
:40:32. > :40:33.strong holds it has supplanted the Conservatives but also subsequently
:40:34. > :40:37.made great inroads in Dundee and parts of the central belt. At the
:40:38. > :40:40.expense of Labour. Because it has managed to say that it is standing
:40:41. > :40:45.up for Scotland's interests against both Labour and the Conservatives.
:40:46. > :40:50.How much has that been the political acumen of Alex Salmond that who for
:40:51. > :40:56.a long time has outwitted the main political parties? It's difficult to
:40:57. > :40:59.imagine that the SNP could have come so far without Alex Salmond, he's
:41:00. > :41:02.been the dominant figure for 30 years now. But I think there are
:41:03. > :41:07.other forces at work that have contributed to the SNP's rise and it
:41:08. > :41:12.would have back prominent force in Scottish politics even without Alex
:41:13. > :41:15.Salmond. Alison, you don't live in Scotland any more but you come and
:41:16. > :41:19.go and I know you're a Yes supporter. How does this look like
:41:20. > :41:22.to the rest of the UK. When you talk to people elsewhere what do they
:41:23. > :41:27.think of it? Lots of people find it exciting. It's such an unfamiliar
:41:28. > :41:30.experience for the media, so they're on the back foot. It was a surprise
:41:31. > :41:38.in many ways to lots of the politicians and there's been even
:41:39. > :41:41.more of a clear mismatch between an educated, sophisticated electorate
:41:42. > :41:45.who are good at voting tactically, who have been looking into the facts
:41:46. > :41:48.and who have a tradition of self-education in this country. And
:41:49. > :41:52.they've been ahead of the media and ahead of the politicians. And some
:41:53. > :41:57.of the media's spin on what the politicians have been saying, on
:41:58. > :42:02.both sides, it's been as depressing and as evoking of apathy and low
:42:03. > :42:05.turn-outs and all the things the politicians blame the electorate
:42:06. > :42:10.for. But down south the idea of change and the idea of general, now,
:42:11. > :42:15.a genuine democracy breaking up, people queuing to register to vote.
:42:16. > :42:20.97% of the available electorate registering. And around 90%
:42:21. > :42:24.turn-out. We're seeing now some of the latest pictures coming in from
:42:25. > :42:29.around the country. We can see there out at Holyrood lots and lots of
:42:30. > :42:34.people with banners, people dancing and people generally feeling the
:42:35. > :42:37.mood. Absolutely. These are the apathetic young people and voters!
:42:38. > :42:42.That's another thing we haven't talked about. The energising of that
:42:43. > :42:46.16 and 17-year-olds, it's a one-off in this debate. I wonder how young
:42:47. > :42:50.people will feel when it's removed from them in the future. How do you
:42:51. > :42:54.think that's changed the debate? TFRNLGTS remains to be seen. Early
:42:55. > :42:56.polls suggested 16 and 17-year-olds would vote against independence. I
:42:57. > :43:00.think that moved in the course of the debate. The Yes campaign
:43:01. > :43:03.resembled a carnival for a lot of this. Something quite profound has
:43:04. > :43:08.happened here. Whatever way this turns out tonight, half the
:43:09. > :43:12.population of one of the kingdoms of the union has repudiated the
:43:13. > :43:18.English-Scottish union. There is a crisis of legitimates here, there is
:43:19. > :43:22.a crisis of popular and democratic legitimacy. If the Westminster
:43:23. > :43:27.establishment, the three Westminster parties think they can F they win
:43:28. > :43:32.this tonight, they can go back to Westminster and thinking job done,
:43:33. > :43:35.union saved, then they'll lose. And the Herald's Political Editor saying
:43:36. > :43:39.it may be 100% turn-out in some areas. Reports across the country
:43:40. > :43:41.showing the turn-out has exceeded even the most optimistic
:43:42. > :43:45.expectations which is quite something. But it's not surprising
:43:46. > :43:49.given the order of magnitude, the importance of the day. Yes, but the
:43:50. > :43:56.genie is out of the bottle now, I wonder what you feel about that. If
:43:57. > :44:00.Peter Kellner is right and it is a quite clear, decisive No vote, what
:44:01. > :44:04.happens to the national psyche? Will people think things have changed and
:44:05. > :44:10.have a positive attitude or will there be an almost depression set
:44:11. > :44:14.in? All kinds of things have been - however it goes the idea of defining
:44:15. > :44:18.nationality by "you live here so you can vote "I hate that I can't vote.
:44:19. > :44:21.nationality by "you live here so you I don't live here so I don't have a
:44:22. > :44:23.vote. I was having - There were bizarre things, people
:44:24. > :44:27.vote. I was having - There were here for Lee weeks had a vote. There
:44:28. > :44:32.were strange things happening? Yes, but it was so beautiful,
:44:33. > :44:35.particularly at this time in Europe where nationalism have other faces,
:44:36. > :44:39.to say if you live here, you're one of us. It's an important thing to
:44:40. > :44:44.say. I wonder also looking at the way Gordon Brown rode in at the end
:44:45. > :44:48.and actually, he looked like he was in his element and he hasn't looked
:44:49. > :44:53.like that for many years. It was as if he found a cause again. I wonder
:44:54. > :44:56.how Alastair Darling is feeling about that, but I wonder what you
:44:57. > :45:01.think about that, that Brown found his voice again. He suddenly did. It
:45:02. > :45:05.was like seeing a 20th century Gordon Brown rather than a 21st
:45:06. > :45:08.century Gordon Brown. There was also the intention that Labour need today
:45:09. > :45:15.bring it's so-called big guns into the campaign even at the latest of
:45:16. > :45:21.late stages. This has still been a very bad campaign for Labour. It's
:45:22. > :45:24.been a good campaign for Scotland but a bad few months for the Labour
:45:25. > :45:28.Party north and south of the border. Hold that a minute. We're going to
:45:29. > :45:32.keep Alan and Alison and if Westminster came late to the
:45:33. > :45:34.referendum the world is now here too with broadcasters from every
:45:35. > :45:37.conceivable country, and the Kurds and the Catalans. We sent Duncan out
:45:38. > :45:48.to get a flavour of the atmosphere. Can I ask what country you're from?
:45:49. > :45:51.Denmark. How much attention is Denmark giving? Enormous, we're
:45:52. > :45:56.broadcasting all the time and have been for over a week. We're
:45:57. > :46:02.completely obsessed with this story. Why are you in Scotland? We are here
:46:03. > :46:08.because we're an Austrian minority in Italy, we are here to support our
:46:09. > :46:13.friends. We're from Barcelona. Here's the
:46:14. > :46:17.thing, a lot of Catalans have come, not only to broadcast but many
:46:18. > :46:27.tourist to see how things are going here.
:46:28. > :46:30.Can I ask where you're from? From Taiwan China, another country, I'm
:46:31. > :46:32.glad to have a discussion with people from Catalonia. And we're
:46:33. > :46:52.going live to Sao Paulo. Yes. We're joined now by Professor Ewen
:46:53. > :46:57.Cameron, Professor Of Scottish history and he joins Alison Kennedy
:46:58. > :47:00.and Allan Little. I wonder, you're a man who has studied the union, WHOU
:47:01. > :47:04.do you think after tonight F this poll is correct, how different will
:47:05. > :47:07.the -- if this poll is correct, how different will the union look? It
:47:08. > :47:11.will look very different regardless of the result. If there's a No vote
:47:12. > :47:15.I think we're almost certainly likely to see more powers to the
:47:16. > :47:19.Scottish Parliament. That will change the balance of power within
:47:20. > :47:23.the union because if the Parliament over there gets more power over
:47:24. > :47:27.taxation and spending then it really does fundamentally alter the game.
:47:28. > :47:32.Looking at the discourse and how this has all been conducted, do you
:47:33. > :47:36.think this re-energised political debate, not within Parliament or
:47:37. > :47:39.Westminster, but out here, people shouting and singing, do you think
:47:40. > :47:43.they'll keep that involvement up? I hope so. We've had other moments in
:47:44. > :47:46.the Scottish history, in the 1880s or 1920s when we've had this sudden
:47:47. > :47:51.burst of energy into Scottish politics. In some subsequent periods
:47:52. > :47:55.it's been lost. I think this has to be carefully nurtured by the
:47:56. > :47:59.politicians on all sides so we do capture some of this enthusiasm for
:48:00. > :48:03.a slightly longer period. Alan, we were talking earlier about Alex
:48:04. > :48:11.Salmond, win or lose, has this been Alex Salmond's finest hour? I think
:48:12. > :48:16.he's won whatever happens. Alex Salmond has always been a
:48:17. > :48:20.gradualist, he wanted the third option, enhanced devolution. What is
:48:21. > :48:23.being offered by the three Westminster parties is not Devo Max,
:48:24. > :48:27.it's some kind of enhanced devolution that we don't know what
:48:28. > :48:31.it will be yet. But Alex Salmond the great gradualist will have
:48:32. > :48:35.strengthened the power of autonomy of Scotland within the union and put
:48:36. > :48:38.Scotland on the map in the minds of the Westminster politicians. The
:48:39. > :48:44.union will never be the same again. What I wonder is, if then there will
:48:45. > :48:53.be a push, Alex Salmond had said that in fact it wouldn't be the
:48:54. > :48:57.Quebec, it would not be the never-endum. But if Parliament is
:48:58. > :49:01.working strongly, if there's a No vote tonight. Do you think there
:49:02. > :49:05.will be a temptation to go for another referendum? Certainly in due
:49:06. > :49:08.course, we remember 1979, the failed referendum in 1979 where Scotland
:49:09. > :49:12.couldn't muster much more than a third of the total electorate to
:49:13. > :49:16.vote for a very weak Parliament. With an decade what happened at
:49:17. > :49:21.Westminster had formed in Scotland a rock solid two to one consensus for
:49:22. > :49:24.a strongly devolved Parliament. The same mistake could happen this time
:49:25. > :49:30.by Westminster politicians. Also, and the fact that what has happened
:49:31. > :49:37.here, we look back at Laura's film is a huge SKEL racial. Thing we --
:49:38. > :49:42.acceleration, things we thought might take decades has taken a short
:49:43. > :49:46.time. Is it social media or other things? I think it's a whole variety
:49:47. > :49:51.of pressures F you look at the '60s and '70s there was a whole
:49:52. > :49:56.reassessment of Scotland's history. The understanding of the nation, a
:49:57. > :50:02.Parliament was there. Then you had Margaret Thatcher, alienating, not
:50:03. > :50:06.just politically but culturally she was a in a different place. That
:50:07. > :50:10.forced Scotland to get mature, OK if we are not that what are we, then
:50:11. > :50:14.we've had three decades. Has this building here, the fact of this
:50:15. > :50:19.building itself in a way encouraged a maturity? Absolutely, I think the
:50:20. > :50:22.Parliament and even just having a stage for the different political
:50:23. > :50:26.parties here in Scotland to play out Scottish politics in a Scottish
:50:27. > :50:33.context, not on a oning-on occasional role in Westminster has
:50:34. > :50:38.been crucial. It's created a Scottish demos, when I was in my
:50:39. > :50:43.20s, the political space where we thought about Scottish politics was
:50:44. > :50:47.emphatically British. Since this place was up and running, it
:50:48. > :50:52.established itself very quickly as the focus of public life in
:50:53. > :50:56.Scotland. That in itself is so hugely exciting. This has been such
:50:57. > :51:01.an extraordinary, exciting day. Thank you all very much indeed.
:51:02. > :51:05.The first regions to declare are expected around 1am. There are 32
:51:06. > :51:11.different counts in all. You can follow all the results on the BBC
:51:12. > :51:16.election programme with hue Edwards on BBC One. However, tonight on
:51:17. > :51:21.Newsnight we leave you with the images of the River Tweed that
:51:22. > :51:26.divides England from Scotland, 50 miles south from this capital. We'll
:51:27. > :51:29.know in a few hours from now whether this river will become an
:51:30. > :52:13.international border or not. From all of us here, good night.
:52:14. > :52:15.In Northern Ireland and Scotland we'll keep plenty of showers
:52:16. > :52:18.throughout the day.