:00:00. > :00:00.It is the missing question in the great EU debate.
:00:07. > :00:09.Come the vote we will know what it is to remain in the EU,
:00:10. > :00:15.Would we exit on terms that mean the grass here is
:00:16. > :00:19.greener, or would we be left worse off than when we started.
:00:20. > :00:23.It was the Prime Minister today in Iceland who raised the danger.
:00:24. > :00:27.Norway pays as much per head into the European Union as we do.
:00:28. > :00:30.When it comes to migration they actually have many more people
:00:31. > :00:33.coming to live in Norway than we do, and yet while they pay they do not
:00:34. > :00:40.Top Tory Eurosceptic Owen Paterson is here to tell us
:00:41. > :00:46.the deal he expects Britain to get if we leave the EU.
:00:47. > :00:48.Also tonight Gabriel Gatehouse is on the streets
:00:49. > :00:51.of Turkey where the government is cracking down on Islamic State.
:00:52. > :01:02.There was an explosion just now and what they are saying is the building
:01:03. > :01:06.where the stand-off happened might have been booby-trapped.
:01:07. > :01:09.Also tonight, the acclaimed political biographer
:01:10. > :01:11.Robert Caro tries to compress his thousands of pages
:01:12. > :01:16.If you try to do something and conceal it from the public,
:01:17. > :01:18.in the first place they are going to find out about it.
:01:19. > :01:27.if you have not brought them along, in the end you are going to fail.
:01:28. > :01:32.Up until now, the Prime Minister has resisted firing the starting gun on
:01:33. > :01:37.But maybe he was feeling frustrated, or maybe he just needed
:01:38. > :01:40.a decent speech to deliver on a trip to Iceland.
:01:41. > :01:43.Whatever motivated him, he weighed into
:01:44. > :01:47.the fledgling argument by raising what is a most important question.
:01:48. > :01:53.We know what it means to be IN the EU, but what does OUT mean?
:01:54. > :02:00.We're going to devote quite a bit of the show to this question tonight.
:02:01. > :02:05.The Prime Minister is in Iceland, which is not in the EU, but he
:02:06. > :02:07.specifically talked about Norway, a country you might have thought was
:02:08. > :02:13.The PM said he didn't think the Norwegian model would be right
:02:14. > :02:16.Well, the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg, formerly one
:02:17. > :02:24.of our own, is over in Reykjavik, where the prime minister is.
:02:25. > :02:34.Laura, on the politics of this, why would he raised this now? If you
:02:35. > :02:39.listen very carefully in Reykjavik tonight, you might just hear the
:02:40. > :02:45.sound of a third EU referendum campaign getting off the ground. Not
:02:46. > :02:48.an official state campaign, not an official go campaign, but an
:02:49. > :02:57.unofficial, different political campaign, the man in charge is David
:02:58. > :03:02.Cameron. His complex campaign is he wants to stay and get a better deal,
:03:03. > :03:05.if not pack up and leave. He is putting this message forward now
:03:06. > :03:09.because although Downing Street denies there is any panic there is a
:03:10. > :03:14.sense the momentum has been with those who would like the UK to exit
:03:15. > :03:18.the EU. Downing Street thinks it is time to push back and try to expose
:03:19. > :03:22.some of the problems with the suggestions they are putting
:03:23. > :03:27.forward. That is why he is using this visit to make his case and that
:03:28. > :03:33.is why he seized on the Norway model, the one he claims would not
:03:34. > :03:40.be right for us. Never has so much attention been showered on Norway as
:03:41. > :03:46.there has been today. Take this briefly through the substance of his
:03:47. > :03:50.argument. This is all about control. Norway and Iceland have a looser
:03:51. > :03:55.friendship with the EU. They trade with the EU and are part of the area
:03:56. > :03:59.and can do business with whoever they like, but they have to pay for
:04:00. > :04:04.the privilege and they are still bound by many of the rules and
:04:05. > :04:13.regulations decided in Brussels. If you listen to the Norwegians talk
:04:14. > :04:15.about that... We will hear from the Norwegians in a few minutes. Sorry
:04:16. > :04:19.Well, we thought it might be useful to drill down into more detail
:04:20. > :04:23.at the different kinds of non-EU membership that are out there.
:04:24. > :04:25.First, we'll have to decide what freedoms we want and what
:04:26. > :04:29.And secondly, the rest of the EU will have to decide what
:04:30. > :04:33.Let's hear from our political editor Allegra Stratton about some
:04:34. > :04:45.The Northern lights, you cannot see them from any old spot, you have to
:04:46. > :04:50.go north to see them clearly, and so to the Prime Minister suggested
:04:51. > :04:53.today Britain's future relations with the European Union. From
:04:54. > :04:58.Iceland to David Cameron warned he could see clearly what Britain's
:04:59. > :05:03.future looked alike. Some people have said the Norway option is
:05:04. > :05:08.available to Britain. Norway pays as much per head into the European
:05:09. > :05:12.Union as we do and when it comes to migration and they have many more
:05:13. > :05:18.people coming to live and work in Norway than we do, and yet while
:05:19. > :05:24.they pay they do not get a say. Is he right? Yes, Norway is often held
:05:25. > :05:29.up by Eurosceptics as a prosperous, successful state operating with, but
:05:30. > :05:33.not inside, the EU. Like Lichtenstein and Iceland they are
:05:34. > :05:38.members of the European economic area that allows the free movement
:05:39. > :05:43.of goods, services and people and capital within the area of the EU.
:05:44. > :05:49.But by signing up they have to adopt much of the regulation of the EU,
:05:50. > :05:53.but with less scope to influence that legislation. Eurosceptics have
:05:54. > :06:08.distanced themselves from Norway in the last few days. What about
:06:09. > :06:11.Switzerland? The Swiss are not in the European economic area, but they
:06:12. > :06:13.have a series of bilateral agreements with the EU and as
:06:14. > :06:15.members of the European free trade area they get favourable trading
:06:16. > :06:17.relations. Boris Johnson has suggested we could join with the
:06:18. > :06:20.Swiss and make a new outfit here of the European Union with free trade
:06:21. > :06:25.with the European Union, but the right to help set the terms of that
:06:26. > :06:30.trade. Critics say this only allows access to parts of the single market
:06:31. > :06:36.and would exclude our financial services sector and Switzerland
:06:37. > :06:40.still pays into the EU budget. There are so many different options and
:06:41. > :06:44.all of them are worse than what we currently have. We have the best of
:06:45. > :06:49.both worlds, we get to sit around the table and we have a say and all
:06:50. > :06:53.of these other options would leave us worse off. We would pay and we
:06:54. > :06:59.would have no say over the rules we would have to implement. I then not
:07:00. > :07:03.other options? Turkey is an outsider to the EU, but they have struck free
:07:04. > :07:10.trade agreements, giving them access to the single market, but there is
:07:11. > :07:17.small print. This is small print. This only force UK to follow EU
:07:18. > :07:23.trade policies. One last option, it is none of the above, but one day we
:07:24. > :07:34.could become a kind of Singapore trade deal with the EU with out EU
:07:35. > :07:41.red tape. Pro-Europeans this welcomes and loosened our client.
:07:42. > :07:48.Their business models are different, they have oil and gas which is a key
:07:49. > :07:51.part of their economy and comparing one country with another is
:07:52. > :07:57.irrelevant. I want to see re-negotiation that works for us in
:07:58. > :08:03.the UK. I knew Tory MP disagreeing with her leader's warning issued
:08:04. > :08:07.from Iceland. The ad campaign think today David Cameron has blundered.
:08:08. > :08:11.By rubbishing Norway they think he has placed himself firmly on the
:08:12. > :08:17.inside of the referendum regardless of what he gets back from the EU.
:08:18. > :08:22.Why has he done what he has done? One of the arguments that persuade
:08:23. > :08:27.voters to stay in the European Union is the idea of Norway, that we would
:08:28. > :08:32.still be subject to the same regulations. That is the strategy
:08:33. > :08:37.behind the Prime Minister's comments today. Lots of examples of how
:08:38. > :08:45.Britain could function outside the EU. Northern lights yes, but beacons
:08:46. > :08:50.elsewhere as well. The outcome means we could be in a category of our
:08:51. > :08:59.own. Nervous voters would like more details.
:09:00. > :09:01.A little earlier I spoke to Vidar Helgesen,
:09:02. > :09:04.the Norwegian Europe Minister, and I began by asking what he made
:09:05. > :09:10.I don't think it was pointing to Norway as such,
:09:11. > :09:14.but the Norwegian model of being affiliated with the European Union.
:09:15. > :09:18.And it's serving Norway economically well, because being a part
:09:19. > :09:21.of the single market is very important to us, to our businesses,
:09:22. > :09:28.But it's also a system that has its dilemmas, because we are
:09:29. > :09:37.Over 20 years more than 10,000 EU laws have been imported directly to
:09:38. > :09:43.Because that's necessary for us to be part of the single market.
:09:44. > :09:46.We don't sit at the EU decision-making table,
:09:47. > :09:52.Is your influence limited, incidentally?
:09:53. > :09:55.I mean, you must have an ambassador in Brussels who argues
:09:56. > :09:59.Yeah, but our ambassador in Brussels is one of the European ambassadors
:10:00. > :10:01.that doesn't sit at the meetings of EU ambassadors.
:10:02. > :10:04.But it's better for us to be part of the single market through this
:10:05. > :10:07.arrangement than being cut off from the single market,
:10:08. > :10:13.There is some discussion and argument about what proportion
:10:14. > :10:17.of European laws are e-mailed, faxed through to you, and you have
:10:18. > :10:25.There's one figure about 9%, others I've seen another figure of 75%.
:10:26. > :10:29.Do you know what proportion of law you have to comply with?
:10:30. > :10:31.I think the latter is closer to the truth.
:10:32. > :10:35.Any legislation, pertaining to the single market,
:10:36. > :10:42.The Norwegian parliament, for each day
:10:43. > :10:46.of sitting over the last 20 years, has adopted five per day EU laws.
:10:47. > :10:53.And we do it while we are paying to the European project roughly
:10:54. > :10:57.on a par with what we would do if we had been a member state.
:10:58. > :11:01.It's conspicuous in Norway that the public are pretty happy with the
:11:02. > :11:07.arrangement, at least there's no demand, there is antipathy towards
:11:08. > :11:11.joining the EU, the political class, you included, you are fairly keen.
:11:12. > :11:14.What is this gulf between the establishment, the political
:11:15. > :11:20.You guys want in, they don't want in.
:11:21. > :11:27.In Norwegian politics there is no membership debate looming at all.
:11:28. > :11:31.Considering the financial crisis, I don't think anyone would be
:11:32. > :11:33.surprised that there is a limited appetite for another
:11:34. > :11:45.The reason why the EEA agreement is commanding
:11:46. > :11:48.support in the Norwegian public and in Norwegian politics is simply
:11:49. > :11:50.that it's good for business, it's good for the economy.
:11:51. > :12:05.You would like Britain not to join you in the European economic area,
:12:06. > :12:09.Since the rules are made in Brussels, in the EU,
:12:10. > :12:12.and we import them, it's important for us that the rules are sensible.
:12:13. > :12:15.And we believe that Britain at the table produces more sensible
:12:16. > :12:18.EU rules than if Britain were on the outside, so that's why it's
:12:19. > :12:20.in Norway's interest that Britain remains at the table.
:12:21. > :12:26.Vidar Helgesen there, the Norwegian Europe Minister.
:12:27. > :12:29.But as as we heard earlier in the show, it's not just Norway that
:12:30. > :12:35.people cite as versions of what it might look like to be out of the EU.
:12:36. > :12:37.Let's get some help from two other places, Singapore and Switzerland.
:12:38. > :12:40.On the line from Singapore is David Kuo, who runs
:12:41. > :12:44.an investment advice service there, and from Frankfurt, though she's
:12:45. > :12:53.Swiss, is Dr Anne van Aaken who teaches at St Gallen University.
:12:54. > :13:01.I am going to start with you. You are in Switzerland, Switzerland is a
:13:02. > :13:05.very affluent place, by your observation does the Swiss
:13:06. > :13:12.relationship with the EU work? Well, I would say it would be difficult
:13:13. > :13:17.for Britain to repeat the Swiss model. It is a very special model
:13:18. > :13:24.and it has to be understood historically by Switzerland not
:13:25. > :13:29.wanting to join the EU and trying to have bilateral treaties. Since
:13:30. > :13:35.Switzerland is not in the European economic areas, it has to make a
:13:36. > :13:41.treaty for everything where it wants to have economic relationships with
:13:42. > :13:45.the EU. That is where we currently stand. It is more complicated than
:13:46. > :13:51.the Norwegian one, but it gives them more flexibility, like an a la carte
:13:52. > :13:57.menu rather than a fixed meal? That is right, but services are not in,
:13:58. > :14:00.which is difficult for Switzerland. Switzerland has quite a strong
:14:01. > :14:07.financial industry sector, so that is difficult for them. The EU
:14:08. > :14:14.basically negotiated that if one treaty is not adhered to, and the
:14:15. > :14:17.Swiss had a referendum in 2014 concerning the free movement of
:14:18. > :14:23.persons, then all the other treaties can be terminated as well. So in a
:14:24. > :14:31.way even though they are bilateral treaties, on its single issue it is
:14:32. > :14:39.a package. You do not take the whole package. All or nothing. Thank you,
:14:40. > :14:43.that is very useful. Singapore is not directly comparison to the UK,
:14:44. > :14:50.but the suggestion is the model of being an enterprise Hub, a kind of
:14:51. > :14:55.offshore almost halved against a large continent, it certainly seems
:14:56. > :15:00.attractive to some people. How attractive do you think and how easy
:15:01. > :15:05.would it be for the UK to become like Singapore?
:15:06. > :15:11.We are part of a free-trade organisation, free trade region here
:15:12. > :15:17.for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. -- it is called the
:15:18. > :15:21.Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Part of a bigger
:15:22. > :15:26.organisation but at the same time there are big differences between
:15:27. > :15:31.that and the European Union. 80% of the trade done by Singapore is
:15:32. > :15:40.outside and only 20% is within those nations. Singapore does work, it's a
:15:41. > :15:44.very successful economy. For it to work what do you need? Singapore
:15:45. > :15:50.taxes are very low, much lower than the UK ones. It's certainly one
:15:51. > :15:54.area, as far as Singapore is concerned we have one of the lowest
:15:55. > :15:58.corporation taxes, no capital gains tax whatsoever and no inheritance
:15:59. > :16:02.tax, it's very attractive for corporations who want to come here,
:16:03. > :16:06.financial institutions and wealthy individuals. Those people who want
:16:07. > :16:11.to pass on their wealth to the next generation. As far as the UK is
:16:12. > :16:14.concerned, it needs to copy that model. Reduce its taxes to an
:16:15. > :16:17.it'll start to attract corporations and financial institutions which
:16:18. > :16:26.they already have. It'll encourage those companies to
:16:27. > :16:27.stay within the UK and not think about moving elsewhere. Thanks
:16:28. > :16:33.Here with me now is the former Conservative cabinet minister and
:16:34. > :16:42.you've been listening to the whole caboodle of options and things,
:16:43. > :16:46.which is your favourite by the way? My favourite option is the British
:16:47. > :16:51.option, we are the fifth largest economy in the world, we have a huge
:16:52. > :16:55.deficit with our European neighbours up to ?70 billion per year, 5
:16:56. > :17:00.million Europeans they'll want to do a deal with us. What was useful
:17:01. > :17:03.about your clips, it shows there are different solutions for different
:17:04. > :17:08.countries. What was interesting, none of them missed, they almost,
:17:09. > :17:12.actually, key movement, towards global regulation, global
:17:13. > :17:17.government. What you missed out is that we want to get our seat back on
:17:18. > :17:20.those global bodies. The Prime Minister set out five questions he
:17:21. > :17:22.thought were important today. I thought we could go through some of
:17:23. > :17:28.them quickly, because they are useful. Would the UK still be
:17:29. > :17:32.obliged to follow EU rules on free movement of people? In your opinion,
:17:33. > :17:38.if we're out, would free movement apply? It depends what the final end
:17:39. > :17:43.solution is. I'm asking what your preferred solution would be. The
:17:44. > :17:48.Treaty of Rome was free movement of labour and the Treaty of Lisbon free
:17:49. > :17:53.movement of people. What I'd like to see is laws made in our own
:17:54. > :17:59.parliament so we get back control of our immigration policy. Not free
:18:00. > :18:06.movement? Not like Norway. It has to be negotiated. Will the UK be forced
:18:07. > :18:08.to pay an EU subscription fee like Switzerland and Norway? It depends
:18:09. > :18:12.what the end solution is. I don't know where these figures have come
:18:13. > :18:22.from. The figures I've seen, Norway pays about half. You would expect
:18:23. > :18:26.the UK to or not? It all depends what the end solution is, I want to
:18:27. > :18:35.get back to the global level, I want Britain to take a 4 seat on the WTO.
:18:36. > :18:40.Norway, which was missed out by their minister, chairs the global
:18:41. > :18:45.body committee... A global committee on fish. They export 3 billion euros
:18:46. > :18:49.of fish. It isn't an answer to the Prime Minister's question. What the
:18:50. > :18:54.UK pay the EU 's abduction? I don't want to hear about fish, I want to
:18:55. > :18:58.hear about the UK subscription under the scenario you are advocating, yes
:18:59. > :19:03.or no, it's quite simple. You might not want to hear about fish but
:19:04. > :19:08.fishermen do. We've talked to you about fish before and Norway, I can
:19:09. > :19:12.remember sitting over there talking. And you interrupted me last I'm like
:19:13. > :19:15.you are interrupting now. I won't interrupt if you answer the question
:19:16. > :19:18.about the EU subscription, will we pay one or not?
:19:19. > :19:26.I want to move to a global system where we have full representation as
:19:27. > :19:30.a full nation on a global bodies. We are represented by a 28 of a
:19:31. > :19:35.commissioner, highly unsatisfactory as we move to global regulation. The
:19:36. > :19:39.EU is retreating as a law creator, the global bodies moving. You have
:19:40. > :19:47.to think out of your EU box. Is it an answer to the question will see
:19:48. > :19:52.you -- have you answer the question the public will read into it what
:19:53. > :19:57.they want. You are presuming we will be in the EU. The EU is going to
:19:58. > :20:00.leave us. I've explained a scenario and you fail to tell me whether
:20:01. > :20:04.we'll pay a subscription, I'm thinking your answer is no. You are
:20:05. > :20:09.assuming we'll be in something called the EU. The EU is leaving us.
:20:10. > :20:16.It won't be like Norway, we won't pay a subscription? We'll be getting
:20:17. > :20:22.our seat back. Would we be in a trade deal with EU, would we be in
:20:23. > :20:31.the trade steel if it's negotiating with other nations? Yes, I said that
:20:32. > :20:35.already, we have a huge... We'll come up with a solution in
:20:36. > :20:40.everybody's interest. What if they set terms which you don't like for
:20:41. > :20:44.us to have access to the market? The market? Reply minister says 31 other
:20:45. > :20:48.governments and parliaments, will they all agree to the UK's new
:20:49. > :20:52.relationship? The procedure is they go into a locked room, decides the
:20:53. > :20:56.treaty that will determine our relationship with them, and they
:20:57. > :21:01.handed to us and we take it or leave it. We are getting outvoted now,
:21:02. > :21:05.we've been beaten in the council 55 times the last few years. We are
:21:06. > :21:13.constantly being outvoted, was out voted when I was the secretary for
:21:14. > :21:17.Defra. I'm saying we have an unsatisfactory deal now which costs
:21:18. > :21:21.a fortune, we have laws and regulations imposed upon us, we
:21:22. > :21:27.don't have our full seat on the global bodies. I know I know. Which
:21:28. > :21:34.I'm very keen on. We will get our full roll on that and it changes the
:21:35. > :21:37.relationship completely. We would love you to have access to our
:21:38. > :21:41.single market, full access, we don't want a race to the bottom on labour
:21:42. > :21:45.standards, to have full access to the single market you will have two
:21:46. > :21:51.basis, that and the other, part of social Charter. Social chapter. As
:21:52. > :21:57.part of the condition. Do we say yes or no? No, I'm looking to a global
:21:58. > :22:02.system. You said... It's inconceivable we won't come to an
:22:03. > :22:06.unsatisfactory trade deal when we have a 70 billion deficit when 5
:22:07. > :22:11.million of their citizens depend on us for trade, we'll come to a deal
:22:12. > :22:14.with them. What proportion of their GDP is exported to us? Depends on
:22:15. > :22:22.the countries, somewhere like Germany is higher. 3%. It varies
:22:23. > :22:26.dramatically between the countries. The key factor for the last few
:22:27. > :22:29.months, each of the last 12 months, sales outside the EU to the rest of
:22:30. > :22:34.the world have increased faster than EU sales. It's still important we
:22:35. > :22:44.have a satisfactory trade deal with them, but we get our rollback on the
:22:45. > :22:48.world bodies and we galvanise the Commonwealth... It's the breakdown
:22:49. > :22:52.in the movement to world free trade that is causing so many problems
:22:53. > :22:56.around the world. Have you answer the question, I'm not sure you have,
:22:57. > :23:00.about how we establish a trade relationship with them that gives
:23:01. > :23:06.access to their market without them dictating some of those terms. 31 of
:23:07. > :23:15.them, 26 of them, plus five EAA members. Varies us. -- there is them
:23:16. > :23:19.and there is us. In that they have interest in coming to a satisfactory
:23:20. > :23:23.deal with us. People on your side of the argument have said, we can't
:23:24. > :23:28.possibly think about a treaty change option under David Cameron.
:23:29. > :23:32.Renegotiation, without it being signed in blood and ratified before
:23:33. > :23:38.we have to vote on it. Are you going to ask us when we come to the
:23:39. > :23:42.referendum to vote on and out prospectus as they as the one you've
:23:43. > :23:46.been describing tonight? I'm not being very casual, I have a clear
:23:47. > :23:51.view we want a new relationship as they move away from us and form
:23:52. > :23:55.their new country. Hang on! I want a relationship based on trade and
:23:56. > :24:01.cooperation, which is what we voted to join in 9075. Allied to that,
:24:02. > :24:03.want to make our own laws in our own parliament and have our own
:24:04. > :24:10.full-time or presented on the global bodies. -- we voted to join in 1975.
:24:11. > :24:15.Yet our role on the global bodies. It'll cascade down through the EU.
:24:16. > :24:20.I'm hearing what you want but I'm not clear, if they say they don't
:24:21. > :24:24.want the relationship you are describing, what you can do about
:24:25. > :24:27.it. I think what you are saying is we should trust that in the end
:24:28. > :24:32.it'll be all right, they won't play hardball. But you seem to forces
:24:33. > :24:35.which have ended with irrational hardball playing characters doing
:24:36. > :24:40.stuff that may not be in the interest of both parties. They have
:24:41. > :24:43.a huge interest. Have you seen a divorce case where somebody has
:24:44. > :24:46.acted against their own interests to hurt the other one. It's different
:24:47. > :24:52.when you have a massive deficit going one way. And something
:24:53. > :24:55.integrated across borders. They allow vested interests in Europe
:24:56. > :25:02.that will want trade and cooperation to carry on. -- there are vested
:25:03. > :25:05.interests. We allow them to move into a political interest. We'll
:25:06. > :25:09.never be in the euro, in Schengen, they will form their new country, as
:25:10. > :25:13.they've announced in various reports. It gives us the
:25:14. > :25:17.opportunity, we have the whip hand, to get that through they have to
:25:18. > :25:21.have a treaty change and we have a whip and to ensure we have a totally
:25:22. > :25:25.new relationship with our neighbours based on trade, cooperation and
:25:26. > :25:26.making our own laws in our own parliament. Owen Paterson, thanks
:25:27. > :25:29.very much indeed. Well, from a discussion
:25:30. > :25:32.about a Britain off one side of the EU, to a country sitting just
:25:33. > :25:35.off the opposite side, Turkey. It's in a far less temperate zone
:25:36. > :25:38.of course, a Syrian war and IS on its doorstep and a long-running
:25:39. > :25:41.struggle with Kurdish separatists. Earlier this month, suicide bombers
:25:42. > :25:43.in the capital Ankara killed more than a hundred people at a rally
:25:44. > :25:47.of a pro-Kurdish opposition party. A ceasefire with the Kurdish
:25:48. > :25:49.militant group All in all, it's not been
:25:50. > :25:53.an easy time for Turkey, Elections in June were inconclusive,
:25:54. > :26:00.so the country votes again Gabriel Gatehouse has been there
:26:01. > :26:03.and found a country struggling to insulate
:26:04. > :26:06.itself from the war on its border. Turkey, a bulwark of stability
:26:07. > :26:24.on the edge of Europe. A buffer against the chaos
:26:25. > :26:27.of the Middle East. The violence that surrounds
:26:28. > :26:31.this country is now beginning Now Turkey is suffering from
:26:32. > :26:40.terrorism attacks because of Syria. Because terrorists,
:26:41. > :26:45.both PKK and Isis, are using Syria, an uncontrollable area,
:26:46. > :26:52.for practising terrorism attacks. In the run-up to Sunday's election
:26:53. > :26:54.there have been deadly bombings blamed variously on Islamic State,
:26:55. > :26:56.or President Erdogan's
:26:57. > :27:04.message is this: Only a strong majority for his party
:27:05. > :27:08.can hold the country together. For such attacks,
:27:09. > :27:11.like tourist attacks, the people of Erdogan is an important
:27:12. > :27:22.figure to unite this nation. Some people have been suggesting it
:27:23. > :27:24.might have been the government itself that was
:27:25. > :27:26.behind the attack in Ankara. I think it is really dangerous
:27:27. > :27:31.to play sectarian politics and to In this atmosphere
:27:32. > :27:43.of mutual suspicion Turkey is once again at war with the Kurds, a war
:27:44. > :27:46.fuelled by the conflict in Syria. In the Kurdish dominated
:27:47. > :27:50.East, Turkish jets are bombing PKK targets in response to attacks
:27:51. > :27:59.by the Kurdish militants. But now a new threat has injected
:28:00. > :28:02.itself into this toxic conflict, On a residential street
:28:03. > :28:12.in the city of Diyarbakir we arrived as security forces carried out
:28:13. > :28:16.a raid on an IS safe house. This was more a battle than
:28:17. > :28:20.a shoot out, police using armoured They have implanted IS
:28:21. > :28:27.into our midst, this man told me, they are only conducting this
:28:28. > :28:30.operation now because They are trying to use IS to
:28:31. > :28:40.put pressure on Kurdish people. There is a car reversing out
:28:41. > :28:47.of the area. They are saying the building
:28:48. > :28:49.where the stand-off happened Two policemen were killed as well
:28:50. > :28:55.as seven militants. Turkey has long allowed
:28:56. > :28:58.Islamic State fighters to use IS oppose the Syrian regime,
:28:59. > :29:05.IS are also a barrier to Kurdish But now some of those IS
:29:06. > :29:14.fighters are coming back. In places eastern Turkey looks
:29:15. > :29:18.like a country at war, but these soldiers are not here because
:29:19. > :29:21.of a threat from Islamic State. They are here because Kurdish
:29:22. > :29:23.militants have taken over swathes turning whole neighbourhoods
:29:24. > :29:32.into so-called autonomous zones. This is essentially a rebel zone, an
:29:33. > :29:35.area that is not under the control of the Turkish security forces, it
:29:36. > :29:38.is under the control of rebel youths They have strung up tarpaulin to
:29:39. > :29:54.shield themselves from the view There are signs here
:29:55. > :29:58.of recent heavy battles, pockmarked The group's leaders are shy
:29:59. > :30:06.of the cameras. They did not want us to film their
:30:07. > :30:09.weapons, mostly automatic rifles, They will be coming for us,
:30:10. > :30:18.they will use tanks and mortars. They want to clear everyone out
:30:19. > :30:21.of this neighbourhood then hit it Emboldened by their fellow Kurds
:30:22. > :30:27.in Syria who have carved out a vast territory along Turkey's southern
:30:28. > :30:31.border, these Marxist guerillas now sense perhaps new momentum
:30:32. > :30:37.in their decades-old struggle. We shall overcome
:30:38. > :30:41.and we will resist to the end. We can take the violence of
:30:42. > :30:50.the state no longer. There are people who are digging
:30:51. > :30:53.these trenches who do not want to be identified, they are all
:30:54. > :30:56.covering up their faces. These are young, armed men who are
:30:57. > :30:59.affiliated with the PKK, the Kurdish rebel group, and one
:31:00. > :31:03.thing is for sure, this is now Not everyone here wants to pick a
:31:04. > :31:15.fight with Turkey's powerful army. These women told us all they want is
:31:16. > :31:17.peace, In his office the local head
:31:18. > :31:27.of president Erdogan's AKP party showed me the bullet holes where PKK
:31:28. > :31:32.militants fired at his window. As Kurdish fighters grow
:31:33. > :31:36.in strength across the border in Syria, Mohammed Akar feels
:31:37. > :31:39.this rebellion could become President Erdogan has presided
:31:40. > :32:08.over a decade of stability Sunday's election is essentially
:32:09. > :32:13.a rerun. In June his AKP party failed to get
:32:14. > :32:15.a majority. His critics accuse him of becoming
:32:16. > :32:21.increasingly authoritarian. Over the past few weeks, many towns
:32:22. > :32:26.in the East have been under curfew. In Diyarbakir's old town we found
:32:27. > :32:30.people venturing out for the first time after special forces were sent
:32:31. > :32:32.in to quell clashes between Kurdish All this commotion is because there
:32:33. > :32:47.is a food distribution here, they are handing out supplies to people
:32:48. > :32:51.who are affected by the clashes that happened in these narrow alleyways
:32:52. > :32:55.just a few days ago. All of this is organised
:32:56. > :32:59.by a pro-Kurdish opposition party which is capitalising
:33:00. > :33:03.on the anger among people who were prevented from getting to work or
:33:04. > :33:09.even to the shops. We had nothing to eat or drink,
:33:10. > :33:13.this woman says. She told me her daughter had gone to
:33:14. > :33:17.the mountains, President Erdogan came to power
:33:18. > :33:25.as a champion of the oppressed, His base is
:33:26. > :33:30.among religious conservatives and Islamists, empowering people who
:33:31. > :33:35.once felt marginalised by Turkey's Now there are those who feel
:33:36. > :33:42.the pendulum has swung too far In 2012 Gurbuz Chapan was one
:33:43. > :33:48.of dozens of people implicated in He insists he supports change
:33:49. > :33:55.only at the ballot box, but he This election is essentially
:33:56. > :34:29.a referendum on the limits Strong leadership has kept Turkey
:34:30. > :34:36.stable amid the chaos of the Middle East, but Erdogan's
:34:37. > :34:39.opponents believe that by giving space to Islamic State
:34:40. > :34:43.and by re-engaging in conflict with If you love biographies,
:34:44. > :34:54.you may well love the American His majestic history of the life
:34:55. > :34:59.of US president Lyndon B Johnson is It's considered one
:35:00. > :35:03.of the most important political His other monumental work was
:35:04. > :35:08.about the man who shaped That one's forty years old now,
:35:09. > :35:14.but has just been published here. From afar, Johnson and Moses may not
:35:15. > :35:17.seem the obvious lives to devote more than a thousand pages to, but
:35:18. > :35:21.Mr Caro has fans in high places. The Chancellor is one of them,
:35:22. > :35:24.Gordon Brown too. Because his books are really
:35:25. > :35:37.about power and its use. Well, it's amazing to me, thank you,
:35:38. > :35:40.England! But I think part
:35:41. > :35:43.of the reason is that it's not really only about Robert Moses, it's
:35:44. > :35:47.about political power, how you get political power, what is political
:35:48. > :35:52.power, how can it shape our lives? Moses was interesting to me because
:35:53. > :35:57.he was never elected to anything. We live in America in a democracy
:35:58. > :36:01.where power is supposed to come from Here is a man who was never elected
:36:02. > :36:07.to anything, he had more power than anyone who was, more than any mayor,
:36:08. > :36:10.more than any governor, more than And he held this power for 44 years,
:36:11. > :36:17.it was half a century, So I set out to do,
:36:18. > :36:22.how did he get it? Can we talk a little
:36:23. > :36:25.about biography? I mean, one of the dangers of
:36:26. > :36:28.biography, particularly the thorough biographical style of which you are
:36:29. > :36:33.the master, perhaps it puts too much weight on the individuals, too much
:36:34. > :36:37.weight on Moses shaping New York. Not enough on historical forces,
:36:38. > :36:42.motorcars, the ability to build tall buildings, whatever
:36:43. > :36:45.the architectural trend was. Is that
:36:46. > :36:50.a danger with big biographies? Well, I think it's a danger,
:36:51. > :36:54.I think in my particular case the danger is mitigated because I'm
:36:55. > :36:59.not interested in writing... I never thought
:37:00. > :37:02.of writing a biography. Just to write the life
:37:03. > :37:05.of a famous man. I never had the slightest
:37:06. > :37:11.interest in doing that. I started The power broker because,
:37:12. > :37:14.I think I mentioned, no one seem to So it started on one part as
:37:15. > :37:20.an examination of political power. How did he create this power
:37:21. > :37:26.outside the electoral process? It's a study of power, that's why I
:37:27. > :37:39.call it The Power Broker. With Johnson, what attracted me
:37:40. > :37:41.to Johnson, was the same thing. It was his Senate years more
:37:42. > :37:44.than the presidential years. And he continues his informal Texas
:37:45. > :37:45.style, I said, my God,
:37:46. > :37:50.he did something no one else has If I can sit and figure out how he
:37:51. > :37:56.got the power to do that, and explain it to people, you have
:37:57. > :37:59.to figure it out and you've got to explain it, then that really is
:38:00. > :38:05.something you feel you are adding to people's understanding of political
:38:06. > :38:10.power, that they should understand. If you don't know what you want to
:38:11. > :38:13.do with your power, you are not really going to be very
:38:14. > :38:15.useful, are you? And if you don't have
:38:16. > :38:18.the ability to work the system, you are not going to be very useful, you
:38:19. > :38:22.need both of those, do you or not? You know, Johnson is really very
:38:23. > :38:25.interesting, he has to give this speech for Congress three days
:38:26. > :38:30.after Kennedy is assassinated. Speech writers are gathered
:38:31. > :38:33.around the table. He comes down to see what
:38:34. > :38:36.they are turning out. They say, well, whatever we do,
:38:37. > :38:39.don't touch civil rights, don't mention civil rights,
:38:40. > :38:42.the Southerners control Congress. They are going to stop all your
:38:43. > :38:45.legislation, don't antagonise them. It's a noble cause,
:38:46. > :38:48.but a lost cause. In a speech he says,
:38:49. > :38:56.my first priority is to pass Now,
:38:57. > :39:02.I wonder whether the techniques used by Johnson, skulduggery you might
:39:03. > :39:08.call some of it, the techniques used by Johnson, whether they created
:39:09. > :39:13.a disenchantment with politics? Today, the word is authenticity
:39:14. > :39:18.that we want in our politicians. I wonder whether the kind of cynical
:39:19. > :39:22.manipulation of people like Johnson Yes, the answer to your question is
:39:23. > :39:28.he created something called Everyone realised,
:39:29. > :39:38.no one could believe, what he said. Now, when I hear
:39:39. > :39:42.the telephone tapes, I hear him telling his advisers, I've decided
:39:43. > :39:46.to send 75,000 men to Vietnam. He says, but let's say
:39:47. > :39:53.the policy hasn't changed. Remember that in everything you say,
:39:54. > :39:57.we haven't changed the policy. But everyone knew he had changed
:39:58. > :39:59.his policy. For years he would say,
:40:00. > :40:02.I see the light, we are winning. The disenchantment with the American
:40:03. > :40:09.presidency, in your words, not believing what
:40:10. > :40:12.the president tells us, that really Before Watergate, we think of it
:40:13. > :40:18.as starting at Watergate. If people say it started with
:40:19. > :40:23.Watergate, they don't remember it started before Watergate,
:40:24. > :40:26.it started with Vietnam. You are almost 80 years old,
:40:27. > :40:29.and you've said, if anything should happen to you, that means you can't
:40:30. > :40:36.finish this fifth volume, you don't want anyone else to finish it or
:40:37. > :40:40.take the work and complete it. I want everything, you know,
:40:41. > :40:58.that I've done under my name to be If someone else wants to write about
:40:59. > :41:06.Lyndon Johnson, of course many people do, they are writing about
:41:07. > :41:09.him now, that's fine, but I don't... You know, there are others, like
:41:10. > :41:11.Manchester's biography of Churchill, People who read that book say, this
:41:12. > :41:16.isn't William Manchester's writing. If you had to encapsulate
:41:17. > :41:18.the one lesson that Johnson teaches You'd better bring the public
:41:19. > :41:22.along with you. Like on Vietnam, if you try to do
:41:23. > :41:29.something and conceal it from the public, in the first place they
:41:30. > :41:32.are going to find out about it. If you haven't bought them along,
:41:33. > :41:37.in the end you are going to fail.