:00:51. > :00:52.On the brink of war - a Newsnight special
:00:53. > :00:55.as parliament prepares to make up its mind on Syrian airstrikes.
:00:56. > :00:58.This time tomorrow night, barring unforseen events, MPs will have
:00:59. > :01:01.voted on whether to send British fighter planes to bomb IS in Syria.
:01:02. > :01:02.For some parliamentarians the agonising will continue
:01:03. > :01:05.Just this evening, the Foreign Affairs Select committee narrowly
:01:06. > :01:08.approved a resolution stating that the PM had not adequately addressed
:01:09. > :01:11.Meanwhile, the Stop the War coalition have been
:01:12. > :01:14.There will be Conservatives who vote against,
:01:15. > :01:17.and Labour MPs who vote for, but if David Cameron gets his way our
:01:18. > :01:20.bombs could be aimed at IS targets almost immediately after the vote.
:01:21. > :01:23.So on the eve of this momentous decision we are devoting Newsnight
:01:24. > :01:26.to debating the arguments for and against - I'm joined by politicians,
:01:27. > :01:28.Syrians, passionate advocates for military action, and others equally
:01:29. > :01:30.passionate about the perils of joining the Americans the
:01:31. > :01:34.First tonight, a reminder of how we got to this point.
:01:35. > :01:37.It was bombing campaigns by President Assad's forces that led
:01:38. > :01:39.to a dramatic recall of Parliament in August 2013.
:01:40. > :01:41.The call to arms followed a suspected chemical weapons attack
:01:42. > :01:44.on the outskirts of the capital Damascus on the 21st
:01:45. > :01:47.of August, in which hundreds of people are reported to have died.
:01:48. > :01:49.The US and the UK said that the Assad
:01:50. > :01:52.In the event, the coalition government's motion
:01:53. > :02:02.David Cameron said he would respect that defeat.
:02:03. > :02:05.It is clear to me that the British Parliament, reflecting the views
:02:06. > :02:16.of the British people, does not want to see British military action.
:02:17. > :02:18.I get that, and the government will act accordingly.
:02:19. > :02:22.Early in March 2013 Islamic fighters had entered
:02:23. > :02:26.And soon it became the capital of the so-called Islamic State.
:02:27. > :02:30.By the following June, in Iraq, Isis forces had overrun both Fallujah
:02:31. > :02:34.They quickly declared a caliphate across Iraq and Syria,
:02:35. > :02:39.Two months later, the city of Sinjar was captured
:02:40. > :02:50.Within a week President Obama authorised the first air strikes.
:02:51. > :02:51.Ten days later, Isis uploaded a video entitled,
:02:52. > :02:57.It shows the beheading of the American hostage James Foley.
:02:58. > :03:00.It featured a masked militant with an English accent.
:03:01. > :03:08.This militant became known as Jihadi John, and more gruesome
:03:09. > :03:11.In September, the US announced the formation of a coalition to
:03:12. > :03:20.And US warplanes began to bomb Raqqa.
:03:21. > :03:22.By September, France had joined in air strikes over Syria
:03:23. > :03:30.Within days, Russia entered the war, carrying out its first air strikes
:03:31. > :03:34.in Syria hours after parliamentary approval in Russia.
:03:35. > :03:37.On November 13, Paris suffered a devastating series
:03:38. > :03:43.of attacks, leaving 130 dead and many more injured.
:03:44. > :03:45.Isis also claimed attacks in Tunisia, Beirut,
:03:46. > :03:52.and the downing of the Russian tourist plane over Sinai.
:03:53. > :03:54.These recent attacks have galvanised governments to prepare joint air
:03:55. > :04:02.strikes to degrade and eradicate Isis.
:04:03. > :04:05.Supporting air strikes in Syria are the Labour MP Mary
:04:06. > :04:10.Creagh, The Times Columnist David Aaronovitch and Wa'el Ageji
:04:11. > :04:15.Against, are the conservative MP John Barron,
:04:16. > :04:18.the commentator Matthews Parris, and the Syrian academic Reem Turkmani.
:04:19. > :04:20.We will address three questions tonight
:04:21. > :04:28.In front of them an audience of people,
:04:29. > :04:31.some of whom have a locus in the debate, and others who are undecided
:04:32. > :04:47.on the arguments for or against. Diane, what would you want to hear
:04:48. > :04:54.to make up your mind? I want to know that it has been thought through.
:04:55. > :04:58.And what are you concerned about? What added value the British would
:04:59. > :05:04.give in this involvement, given that other countries are already involved
:05:05. > :05:10.in this conflict. And Mary, what are you so worried about? I am worried
:05:11. > :05:17.about not repeating the same mistakes of Iraq.
:05:18. > :05:20.The first question we want to address is the military
:05:21. > :05:33.Can we really make any meaningful difference? And even if we can make
:05:34. > :05:35.a difference from the air, who is going to fight the ground war that
:05:36. > :05:44.everybody agrees is necessary. First David Aaronovitvch,
:05:45. > :05:46.a minute please in support What MPs are being asked to do
:05:47. > :05:51.tomorrow is not to start a war - there's been one of those in Syria
:05:52. > :05:54.for four years in which 300,000 Syrians have died and 5 million have
:05:55. > :05:58.sought refuge abroad - or to "bomb Syria",
:05:59. > :06:01.but to extend the scope of existing British airstrikes against Isis from
:06:02. > :06:04.Iraq over the non-existent border. Our allies, not least the French,
:06:05. > :06:07.have requested this of us. Germany responded to France's
:06:08. > :06:12.request for help earlier today. Militarily it will add to the
:06:13. > :06:16.existing pressure on the beheaders, enslavers, rapists and amputators
:06:17. > :06:19.of Daesh and assist forces such as the Kurds and non-jihadi Syrian
:06:20. > :06:24.resistance fighters who - not Assad - have borne the brunt
:06:25. > :06:27.of the anti-Isis fight. It will do something to diminish the capacity
:06:28. > :06:30.of Daesh to plan attacks on European It will not end
:06:31. > :06:36.the Syrian civil war - which we and others have stood back from
:06:37. > :06:39.for so long - and it will not in and Eventually that will be accomplished
:06:40. > :06:45.by ground forces, probably consisting
:06:46. > :06:47.of local allies assisted by special It does not detract from
:06:48. > :06:54.the need for a peace process in the But right now, concretely,
:06:55. > :07:02.British forces can help damage Isis and give succour
:07:03. > :07:04.and encouragement to our friends. Now John Barron, the case against,
:07:05. > :07:20.also in a minute. At a time when too many aircraft are
:07:21. > :07:24.chasing too few targets, many in Parliament are concerned that in the
:07:25. > :07:29.absence of a long-term strategy, both military and non-military, we
:07:30. > :07:33.risk repeating past errors such as in Iraq, Helmand and Libya, and
:07:34. > :07:36.would have made the mistake of in Syria two years ago had Parliament
:07:37. > :07:41.not stopped the Government intervening on behalf of the rebels.
:07:42. > :07:46.Air strikes alone will not succeed. What we need is a comprehensive
:07:47. > :07:50.strategy. On the non-military front, we need to make sure we do more to
:07:51. > :07:59.address issues such as why we are not as rocketing Daesh-ISIL's
:08:00. > :08:03.prominence on social media and financial interests. But the key
:08:04. > :08:09.question we cannot answer is who is going to supply the local ground
:08:10. > :08:14.forces to actually defeat Daesh on the ground? And if we cannot answer
:08:15. > :08:19.that question, it begs also have other questions as well, and the
:08:20. > :08:23.idea that there are 70,000 moderates left, even if there are, we risk
:08:24. > :08:27.ignoring the lesson of Libya, when once the common enemy was defeated,
:08:28. > :08:33.but coalition of forces against Gaddafi fragmented into a thousand
:08:34. > :08:39.militias and a further civil war Enes Unal. There have been no
:08:40. > :08:49.answers forthcoming. Thank you very much. The Government
:08:50. > :08:55.said tonight that those who will be voting against Arab terrorist
:08:56. > :09:00.sympathisers. I do feel about being called a terrorist sympathiser by
:09:01. > :09:03.your own Prime Minister? I won't comment on a private meeting, but I
:09:04. > :09:07.have served in the Army and on the streets of Northern Ireland. I was a
:09:08. > :09:11.platoon commander in Northern Ireland, and I do think we must not
:09:12. > :09:15.resort to such language. Instead we must look at the actual evidence
:09:16. > :09:19.before us, and there is clearly a lack of ground forces to take Daesh
:09:20. > :09:24.on, and that is one of the key issues we have to address. Let me
:09:25. > :09:30.put that straight back to David Aaronovitch. It won't necessarily be
:09:31. > :09:33.just symbolic for us, but it won't be the game changer we think. What
:09:34. > :09:38.is actually needed is some support for the 70,000 ground troops who
:09:39. > :09:41.frankly are too busy fighting Assad and are not going to move that
:09:42. > :09:47.position unless we can guarantee protection from IS. Firstly, there
:09:48. > :09:52.is a fallacy in this which is the dramatic, which is the idea that
:09:53. > :09:57.this is not also happening in Iraq. Isis isn't just in Syria, it is in
:09:58. > :10:01.Iraq, and consequently the ground forces that it faces are partially
:10:02. > :10:06.in Iraq. So if you are talking about whom eventually is going to take
:10:07. > :10:12.Raqqa, the answer is I don't know, but I do know that they will take it
:10:13. > :10:19.quicker if you degrade Isis's military capability. And Matthew
:10:20. > :10:26.Parris, there is no point in being a mile and a half away and not being
:10:27. > :10:30.in Syria. In Iraq we are supporting a democratically elected legitimate
:10:31. > :10:34.government. You are not doing any such thing in Syria. You can always
:10:35. > :10:38.chase people over the border, but I do find it surprising that David
:10:39. > :10:44.says he doesn't know who is going to take Raqqa, but we can work all that
:10:45. > :10:48.out once we have vaporised Isil. Mary Creagh, the other argument
:10:49. > :10:53.about the problematic nature of the military engagement is that Barack
:10:54. > :10:57.Obama said tonight it is not that we don't have enough forces to deal
:10:58. > :11:01.with IS, it is the fact that right now we don't have enough targets.
:11:02. > :11:05.Isn't that the problem? This is not a well worked out strategy. IS don't
:11:06. > :11:10.operate in a way that you can pin them down so easily? I was present
:11:11. > :11:13.at a briefing with the Foreign Secretary and the Home Secretary,
:11:14. > :11:18.and I asked this question about the 70,000 forces. I got the answer
:11:19. > :11:22.there were 40,000 forces and 30,000 perhaps Islamic law say is who are
:11:23. > :11:27.willing to be part of a political settlement, and then there are
:11:28. > :11:33.20,000 much more Islamist forces who are not willing to be part of that
:11:34. > :11:36.settlement, so there is complexity underground, but those Free Syrian
:11:37. > :11:42.Army forces have the degraded over time that Assad, and if we carry on
:11:43. > :11:47.doing nothing in Syria, there will be no opposition to Assad, nobody on
:11:48. > :11:53.the ground to take over. David Carr tellers who is going to
:11:54. > :11:59.take Raqqa. Who will take it from IS? I hope it will be local forces
:12:00. > :12:02.on the ground, but the advice we had from the local Lieutenant General
:12:03. > :12:07.there today said they wanted to be local forces. Kurds? Yes, but there
:12:08. > :12:11.will be territorial limits to where they want to go, but what they don't
:12:12. > :12:17.want is Western Force is coming in because they don't think that is
:12:18. > :12:21.helpful locally. You are against military action, tell me why you
:12:22. > :12:26.don't think that strategy will work. It is strange to hear you talking
:12:27. > :12:33.about Syria and asking the wrong question. If the Free Syrian Army is
:12:34. > :12:37.being bombed every single day, and they are dealing with Aral bombs,
:12:38. > :12:42.how do you think they are going to come and take ground as you command
:12:43. > :12:48.them to do? They are not your forces. They have their battle to
:12:49. > :12:52.fight, which is Assad. If you don't abate the right question, if you
:12:53. > :12:56.don't have the right priority, you are not going to defeat ices or
:12:57. > :13:02.solve the problems in Syria, and you are certainly going to add to the
:13:03. > :13:07.tragedy of the Syrian people. Can I come back at that? This is the
:13:08. > :13:11.question you asked. I totally agree with you. My concern having met with
:13:12. > :13:16.Syrian refugees in Lebanon two months ago is how we tackle Assad's
:13:17. > :13:19.reign of terror, and I am clear that a man who uses cluster munitions and
:13:20. > :13:22.chemical weapons against his own people cannot be allowed to continue
:13:23. > :13:27.unchecked, and I believe passionately that Syrian lives
:13:28. > :13:32.matter in all of this. What we need to see is a timetable... But your
:13:33. > :13:35.leader has a different view. He is not prepared to vote the air
:13:36. > :13:39.strikes. This has been a very difficult debate, and we have seen
:13:40. > :13:43.people on all sides of the house voting with their conscience
:13:44. > :13:47.tomorrow. There is a wide range of opinion reflected on this panel and
:13:48. > :13:53.reflected across the parties. But back to the Assad question, we need
:13:54. > :13:56.peace and democratic elections in Syria, and that parallel political
:13:57. > :14:00.process is now starting in Vienna. There is a confusion here. Air
:14:01. > :14:05.strikes against ices are not going to stop the tragedy of the Syrian
:14:06. > :14:09.people. What needs to be discussed in Parliament is the protections of
:14:10. > :14:15.the Syrian civil youth in case any other... And at the same time, the
:14:16. > :14:20.Russians, of course. Since the Russians got involved, Isis has
:14:21. > :14:23.gained so much ground. They are targeting the Free Syrian Army,
:14:24. > :14:27.hospitals and civil society institutions. What do you say to
:14:28. > :14:31.David Cameron's argument that we can't let the French and the
:14:32. > :14:35.Americans do our work for us? We have to be their shoulder to
:14:36. > :14:44.shoulder, using these Brimstone bombs, taking part? He is saying it
:14:45. > :14:48.as if his own -- as if it is a party we all have to join. It has been a
:14:49. > :14:57.year of air strikes against ices, and what is the game? They actually
:14:58. > :15:05.took all my -- Palmyra, the jewel of Syria, during the air strikes. The
:15:06. > :15:09.attacks in Paris were planned in the summer of Brussels and Paris, not
:15:10. > :15:14.Raqqa, so there are much wider issues to be addressed. It is not a
:15:15. > :15:18.year since American air strikes helped defend the Turkish town of
:15:19. > :15:27.Kobane on the border and stopped Isis. Ices was their only when the
:15:28. > :15:34.Kurds went in to take back their cities. They were reluctant, and
:15:35. > :15:37.they held in cooperation with the ground Force, so where are the
:15:38. > :15:43.ground forces? That should come first. But what I'm saying is
:15:44. > :15:48.American helped maintain Kobane and keep it. And there will be similar
:15:49. > :15:52.other situations in Syria as there are in Iraq which Britain can
:15:53. > :15:59.conceivably help with, and to me, that alone would be sufficient
:16:00. > :16:02.reason. The rest of Syria would be reduced to the ground just like
:16:03. > :16:07.Barney. What you need is a political solution first and foremost. So the
:16:08. > :16:09.regime stopped attacking the civilians, the Free Syrian Army and
:16:10. > :16:16.every body else, and having all the Syrians framed in the political
:16:17. > :16:23.circle so that they can all tackle ices. There is no more room for more
:16:24. > :16:27.forces in this. Two very quick issues. What is the difference
:16:28. > :16:31.between Syria and Iraq? As Matthew says, first of all, we are in Iraq
:16:32. > :16:34.because we were invited to do so, but secondly, there was another
:16:35. > :16:39.fundamental difference, and that is that on the Iraqi payroll, you have
:16:40. > :16:45.hundreds of thousands if not a million on the security forces side.
:16:46. > :16:50.In Syria you have nothing actually of the sort. And having returned
:16:51. > :16:53.from the Middle East last week, the Foreign Affairs Committee went over
:16:54. > :16:59.and had a look. What we are being told actually is that there are no
:17:00. > :17:04.or very few moderates left in this civil war, and the idea of turning
:17:05. > :17:08.the Free Syrian Army against Daesh is just nonsense.
:17:09. > :17:11.The government has been careful to insist that bombing Syria is part
:17:12. > :17:14.of a clear diplomatic plan for the future of Syria,
:17:15. > :17:15.involving a representative and legitimate government.
:17:16. > :17:17.The Vienna Process is crucial to this.
:17:18. > :17:20.The meeting in Vienna earlier this month was the
:17:21. > :17:23.second time Iran and Saudi Arabia had sat together at the same table.
:17:24. > :17:26.And the 17 parties to the talks have agreed, in principle,
:17:27. > :17:30.on a way forward - a UN-brokered ceasefire, a transitional government
:17:31. > :17:38.But huge questions remain, not least what happens to Bashar al-Assad.
:17:39. > :17:45.Making the case that it's not - in a minute long speech -
:17:46. > :17:50.Without political strategies no military action could achieve
:17:51. > :17:57.The lack of political legitimacy is at the root of the Syrian conflict.
:17:58. > :18:01.So building a legitimate Syrian state should be the strategy.
:18:02. > :18:09.So no exclusion of whole sectors of the society
:18:10. > :18:14.It means a constitution that guaranties equal
:18:15. > :18:20.citizens rights, fair distribution of wealth, human rights and freedom
:18:21. > :18:23.Syrians are taking the risk of dying in order to reach countries
:18:24. > :18:37.that provide these rights - they are not going to Saudi or Iran.
:18:38. > :18:42.Getting there requires an inclusive political solution that takes into
:18:43. > :18:46.consideration all the grievances, and gives the conflicting parties
:18:47. > :18:57.the tool of politics rather than arms to settle their differences.
:18:58. > :19:02.Because dividing the country to winners and loser, like what
:19:03. > :19:05.happened in Iraq, will only generate extremism and further conflicts.
:19:06. > :19:07.Only in this way the Syrian-Syrian fight
:19:08. > :19:10.will end, and only then can the military and other power groups
:19:11. > :19:16.All Syria needs to get there from the rest of the world,
:19:17. > :19:19.including Britain, is to support the solution to the conflict and not
:19:20. > :19:23.And now suggesting there is a clear diplomatic plan let's hear from
:19:24. > :19:33.There are a number of reasons that may be believe it is time for the UK
:19:34. > :19:38.to take action in Syria. After the Paris attack and
:19:39. > :19:42.President Hollande's request from our law makers to vote yes to
:19:43. > :19:47.Uk military action in Syria, However, I still believe without a
:19:48. > :19:55.comprehensive and overall strategy to win the war and a post-conflict
:19:56. > :19:57.plan, military action will not Therefore I believe that all forces
:19:58. > :20:10.involved, both the allies and regional forces, such as Saudis,
:20:11. > :20:14.Qatar and Turkey - on the one hand - and Iran and Russia on the other,
:20:15. > :20:21.should put aside their differences and come up with
:20:22. > :20:24.a plan to cooperate to defeat Isil Without addressing the issue
:20:25. > :20:31.of civil war in Syria, Bombing now is one step towards
:20:32. > :20:38.preventing Isil taking more territory
:20:39. > :20:40.and expanding their influence. Next a comprehensive
:20:41. > :21:00.strategy must be agreed. Coming to our guests. You support
:21:01. > :21:06.air strikes. But do you think a diplomatic strategy as outlined by
:21:07. > :21:11.the Vienna process and so forth is feasible if Bashar al-Assad
:21:12. > :21:12.the Vienna process and so forth is anywhere in the equation? I
:21:13. > :21:16.understand Isis is a anywhere in the equation? I
:21:17. > :21:22.to global anywhere in the equation? I
:21:23. > :21:27.community including the UK is to respond militarily somehow.
:21:28. > :21:32.community including the UK is to my only concern, my biggest concern
:21:33. > :21:39.rather is what measures are in place to protect civilians. This is one
:21:40. > :21:49.issue. The second issue is what about the narratives of hatred and
:21:50. > :21:57.religious supremacy that is fuelling Isis and enabling it to recruit more
:21:58. > :22:04.supporters? The third issue is Isis cannot be defeated by air strikes
:22:05. > :22:11.only. This leads us to the issue of ground intervention. Talking about
:22:12. > :22:21.ground intervention, boots on the ground, who are they, these troops?
:22:22. > :22:25.Are we talking about the Iraqi army and popular mobilisation, largely
:22:26. > :22:33.Are we talking about the Iraqi army sectarian? Are we talking about the
:22:34. > :22:33.Are we talking about the Iraqi army Peshmerga and Kurdish forces? Well
:22:34. > :22:37.the gentleman behind you, Peter, you Peshmerga and Kurdish forces? Well
:22:38. > :22:44.have direct experience. Your son was Peshmerga and Kurdish forces? Well
:22:45. > :22:53.Iraq. When you hear of post-conflict Peshmerga and Kurdish forces? Well
:22:54. > :22:57.it make you think? I do not think they have a clue about post-conflict
:22:58. > :23:08.resolution. When they talk about dropping bombs and the first
:23:09. > :23:11.resolution. When they talk about that is dropped, will start people
:23:12. > :23:15.joining up. People are going to die, do not think they are not. People
:23:16. > :23:21.are going to die in Syria as the drop the bombs, Isil will not stay
:23:22. > :23:27.there to be bombed, they will move round the world. What you then get
:23:28. > :23:32.as we have seen in Paris, we're coming up to a really busy time, I
:23:33. > :23:36.am worried to death that somewhere in England in some big shopping
:23:37. > :23:40.centre, a little kid going to Santa Claus is going to be hurt. It is not
:23:41. > :23:45.soldiers or politicians who will be Claus is going to be hurt. It is not
:23:46. > :23:53.blown up. We will come onto the issue of safety in a moment. We have
:23:54. > :23:58.no idea who would be in charge of Syria. We want a democratically
:23:59. > :24:02.elected Syrian government in charge of the Syrian army to bring peace to
:24:03. > :24:06.that country. And the Syrians amongst us tonight are united in
:24:07. > :24:11.that role. But if you look at factions in Syria, all in their own
:24:12. > :24:15.geographical areas working for their own and without any kind of idea who
:24:16. > :24:21.will emerge as a leader, you cannot have a resolution? The Russians and
:24:22. > :24:24.the Iranians, both eager participants in this than we are
:24:25. > :24:28.ever going to be, are determined to keep President Assad in place. I do
:24:29. > :24:33.not see the beginnings of this international agreement you are
:24:34. > :24:36.speaking. President Assad was the cause of these problems. I agree
:24:37. > :24:42.that he should temporarily stay where he is and then gradually find
:24:43. > :24:50.a coalition or replacement. President Assad would not be kept
:24:51. > :24:54.and the Iranians know that as well. Would any of the different factions,
:24:55. > :25:00.Free Syrian Army, come to the table if Bashar al-Assad was there even
:25:01. > :25:07.for five days? No, people in Syria needs their dictator to be taken
:25:08. > :25:12.away from the future of Syria. We have been trying for five years to
:25:13. > :25:16.get rid of him. How can you tell other that her son was tortured to
:25:17. > :25:22.death by his forces and he is going to remain. And you're also
:25:23. > :25:26.negotiating with him, making him legitimate and important. There are
:25:27. > :25:32.some ironies here because people like me who supported action against
:25:33. > :25:36.Assad in September 2013, which John and Matthew were against, for
:25:37. > :25:40.precisely these reasons. And of course the biggest killer in Syria
:25:41. > :25:43.has been President Assad and his barrel bombs. We have to make a
:25:44. > :25:49.distinction between two situations. The long-term situation in Syria and
:25:50. > :25:52.there was a large amount of agreement between my colleagues on
:25:53. > :25:57.the right about the kind of general process. The problem is that we'll
:25:58. > :26:02.take a long time and involves many actors with competing interests. And
:26:03. > :26:09.in the meantime we have Isis and Daesh out there... But if you bomb
:26:10. > :26:14.Islamic State, you just shore up President Assad? A man doing
:26:15. > :26:20.business with Islamic State for oil is much as far as I can see Assad
:26:21. > :26:27.has never been in the business of taking out Islamic State. But it is
:26:28. > :26:31.surely a defeatist attitude to say as long as the Russians and Iranians
:26:32. > :26:35.are there in support of Bashar al-Assad then there can be no
:26:36. > :26:41.settlement? Because that is the equation. That is the point. The
:26:42. > :26:45.reason that we stopped the government taking the side of the
:26:46. > :26:50.rebels, and we are pleased we did that because we would be taking the
:26:51. > :26:56.side of Isil and Daesh which has emerged from the rebels. So the plan
:26:57. > :27:01.was not coherent and illustrates a wider issue. We have a long wish
:27:02. > :27:05.list of what we would like by way of a political settlement... About
:27:06. > :27:13.reinforces the point that there is no coherent long-term strategy with
:27:14. > :27:18.regards to how we defeat Daesh. And without that, air strikes alone when
:27:19. > :27:23.already aircraft are chasing too few targets. But failures elsewhere in
:27:24. > :27:28.Libya and Iraq cannot be the barrier to action for ever. But we've got to
:27:29. > :27:31.learn the lessons and one of the key one is we need a realistic and
:27:32. > :27:37.long-term strategy that takes care of the whole process put up David
:27:38. > :27:40.from the audience? A couple of things that had not been mentioned
:27:41. > :27:45.in detail, and we have to defeat Isis in some way before we
:27:46. > :27:49.concentrate on Bashar al-Assad. We should concentrate on trying to stop
:27:50. > :27:55.Isis using the internet in the way they do and trying to cut off their
:27:56. > :27:58.financial assets and the way they get revenue in the millions. No one
:27:59. > :28:03.seems to be doing that in any effective way. Absolutely. We have
:28:04. > :28:09.to cut off the flow of finance and arms to Islamic State. You have had
:28:10. > :28:16.three years to do that. We were not engaged in Syria. I greatly regret
:28:17. > :28:19.the decision by party in 2013. We have a mass murderer using chemical
:28:20. > :28:24.weapons on sleeping children at night in a civilian area of Damascus
:28:25. > :28:29.and we had that vote and I turned on my television and saw him bombing
:28:30. > :28:33.school in Syria and thought this is the man we have allowed to continue.
:28:34. > :28:38.We allowed President Assad to continue to murder his own civilians
:28:39. > :28:41.and then he created a vacuum into which Islamic State have moved and
:28:42. > :28:51.have spread their warfare and jihad eateries. This attitude allowed
:28:52. > :28:58.Assad to stay in position? Well it was imposed from the beginning that
:28:59. > :29:02.the head of state should step down. Russia supports their own narrative,
:29:03. > :29:08.not Assad himself. When the bombing was discussed in 2013 it was not to
:29:09. > :29:12.take over from President Assad. So it only prolongs the conflict. The
:29:13. > :29:16.question is why the UK and Americans and others said something they
:29:17. > :29:21.cannot deliver. They said the head of state should step down. So they
:29:22. > :29:29.should go back and talk to Moscow. We must move on
:29:30. > :29:30.Fundamental to the Prime Minister's case
:29:31. > :29:33.for bombing Syria is that it will make the streets of Britain safer.
:29:34. > :29:36.David Cameron told the Commons that the security services have disrupted
:29:37. > :29:38.seven terrorist plots to attack the UK this year,
:29:39. > :29:41.all of which were linked to Isis or inspired by their propaganda.
:29:42. > :29:43.Attacking Isis on their home turf reduces their
:29:44. > :29:47.ability to plan attacks abroad and reduces their appeal, making attacks
:29:48. > :29:50.much as we have seen in Paris less likely - so the logic goes.
:29:51. > :29:57.Or does bombing simply make us more of a target?
:29:58. > :29:59.Making the case that attacking Isis makes us safer,
:30:00. > :30:06.Tomorrow I will be voting to extend UK airstrikes to defeat Isil
:30:07. > :30:10.This is one of the most important decisions an MP can make and it
:30:11. > :30:20.30 British holidaymakers were murdered on the beach in Tunisia
:30:21. > :30:23.in July and we know that seven Isil-related terror attacks
:30:24. > :30:32.against British people have been stopped in the past year.
:30:33. > :30:39.We need a fresh diplomatic effort to bring peace to Syria and the Vienna
:30:40. > :30:42.talks offer a real hope of that, with Russia,
:30:43. > :30:44.Saudi Arabia and Iran all around the table for the first time.
:30:45. > :30:47.But there is no hope of negotiating with Isil.
:30:48. > :30:50.We must stop the flow of fighters, finance and arms to their HQ
:30:51. > :30:55.We need military action to stop them murdering Syrians and to disrupt
:30:56. > :31:07.their propaganda machine which attracts fighters to pursue
:31:08. > :31:15.-- which poisons young minds and cause them to fight.
:31:16. > :31:18.For the past 14 months, we have worked with 60 other countries, in
:31:19. > :31:22.It makes no sense to turn our planes back at the Syrian border
:31:23. > :31:26.France and the US, our closest allies, have called
:31:27. > :31:29.on us to work in solidarity with them to defeat our common enemy.
:31:30. > :31:31.We must act to keep our country safe.
:31:32. > :31:33.Action has consequences, but so too does in action.
:31:34. > :31:37.And now suggesting it makes us more insecure is Mathew Parris.
:31:38. > :31:43.I have no certainties with which to confront David Cameron's
:31:44. > :31:45.uncertainties. There's something many of us who
:31:46. > :31:48.don't want Britain to join the We fear that killing people in Raqqa
:31:49. > :31:52.may put British cities Is it cowardly, is it irresponsible,
:31:53. > :31:55.to say that? If I were persuaded by the Prime
:31:56. > :32:03.Minister that Britain's bombers in Syrian skies would in the end make
:32:04. > :32:06.the world safer, then exposing our own citizens to a possible temporary
:32:07. > :32:09.increase in the risk of terrorism here would be a sacrifice we should
:32:10. > :32:12.make. But I don't believe David Cameron is in the position to
:32:13. > :32:15.feel confident this will happen. He doesn't know enough -
:32:16. > :32:18.none of us does - to say that. Yet he puts that assertion right
:32:19. > :32:22.at the centre of his argument. Where are these Isil terrorist
:32:23. > :32:24.command and control HQs that Modern terrorism doesn't
:32:25. > :32:31.need physical HQs. Tornado bombers are useless against
:32:32. > :32:35.the Internet and mobile phone. The inevitable collateral killing
:32:36. > :32:39.of thousands of uninvolved Syrians - together with our country's clear
:32:40. > :32:44.identification with this rain of fire, has a terrible potential
:32:45. > :32:46.to breed new enemies. I cannot be sure the Prime Minister
:32:47. > :32:51.is wrong. But I'm pretty sure he isn't
:32:52. > :32:55.as confident as he says. I wonder whether he doesn't really
:32:56. > :32:59.know what will happen, but just feels it's inappropriate that a big
:33:00. > :33:15.fight is taking place in a just David Aaronovitch, there are no
:33:16. > :33:20.certainties. France is in the forefront, and look what happened in
:33:21. > :33:23.Paris. You don't know that home-grown terrorists, as they were
:33:24. > :33:30.in France, will not react to attacks by Britain on ices. France was also
:33:31. > :33:37.attacked back in January and the cause for that was people making
:33:38. > :33:40.cartoons. Mary's argument was more subtle than you are allowed. She
:33:41. > :33:44.wasn't talking about command and control centres in quite that way.
:33:45. > :33:48.What she was saying was that the example of having territory which
:33:49. > :33:52.you call the caliphate is something that was acting as a propaganda
:33:53. > :33:57.pulled to jihadis as well as being a place where organisation could
:33:58. > :34:01.happen relatively unscrutinised. And I think that is a strong point and
:34:02. > :34:08.you need to deal with it. But isn't part of the problem that by going on
:34:09. > :34:14.the attack, Isis wants us to attacks, and yet this is a hydra
:34:15. > :34:20.headed beast. They don't want us to attack. They want us to leave them
:34:21. > :34:23.alone to regain strength and recruit more fighters, and at a time of
:34:24. > :34:28.their choosing, they will choose to attack us. They now control an area
:34:29. > :34:34.the size of Great Britain, and in Iraq we have managed to take back a
:34:35. > :34:37.third of their territory. As long as they are able to be there and say
:34:38. > :34:39.that they are a history of paying salaries, they are able to recruit
:34:40. > :34:45.people to come and murder other people. Isis is acting like a state,
:34:46. > :34:50.with the health service edit own oil, and we are allowing us to have
:34:51. > :34:55.and we have to stop it. I agree, but you cannot take ground back. Being
:34:56. > :34:58.an infantryman in the army, you cannot take ground back by air
:34:59. > :35:03.strikes alone. You need to identify local ground troops who will take
:35:04. > :35:07.that ground, and nobody can. If you can't supply the ground troops, and
:35:08. > :35:11.there is a great disagreement about this, you should think twice about
:35:12. > :35:14.committing to military action into you know where you are going. That
:35:15. > :35:19.doesn't necessarily mean that the streets of written will be less
:35:20. > :35:24.safe. We just don't know. Matthew can speak for himself. What I do
:35:25. > :35:31.know is that there are already too many aircrafts chasing too few
:35:32. > :35:34.targets in Syria. You should start by protecting the civilians in
:35:35. > :35:39.Syria, and you should give the people the chance to fight their
:35:40. > :35:44.fight. If you want to tackle Isis, tackle the root of the problem,
:35:45. > :35:48.which is the great oppression, the great injustice of the Syrian
:35:49. > :35:55.people. David, coming back to this point, don't you think that some
:35:56. > :35:58.ices sympathiser in this country who is disaffected, who has to stay here
:35:59. > :36:07.because he or she cannot travel abroad, is more likely to turn that
:36:08. > :36:12.I -- turn their anger on this country now? It strikes me they have
:36:13. > :36:17.any number of reasons they could give for wanting to attack us as
:36:18. > :36:22.things are, as they gave examples in Paris and so on, and they don't need
:36:23. > :36:25.this as a case. The thing that stops us attacking is the fact that our
:36:26. > :36:32.secret security forces have so far stopped them. When we fail, they
:36:33. > :36:38.will attack. It seems that uncertainty is a theme
:36:39. > :36:42.tonight, and I think war should only be a last resort. If we are so
:36:43. > :36:46.uncertain about the situation in circumstances, we need to make sure
:36:47. > :36:54.we have exhausted all other options. Speed up the peace talks, strengthen
:36:55. > :37:00.why P forces. Let's not go haphazard into this. But when David
:37:01. > :37:04.Cameron says that we can't rely on our allies like France and America
:37:05. > :37:09.doing this business for us, do you feel that actually that has some
:37:10. > :37:13.purchase? Of course not. Considering the civilian casualties taking place
:37:14. > :37:18.and that will take place if we get involved, that is a very cosmetic
:37:19. > :37:23.argument, saying that we need to join our friends. The one thing we
:37:24. > :37:28.haven't spoken about is what comes next. A comprehensive exit strategy,
:37:29. > :37:34.and something I am concerned about is that thousands of able who will
:37:35. > :37:39.become displaced. There is a refugee crisis happening across Europe, and
:37:40. > :37:42.it will get worse. We haven't spoken about how we're going to deal with
:37:43. > :37:50.it, and I think we need to talk about that. I agree that the UK
:37:51. > :37:54.should degrade Isis's capabilities and defeated, but being an ex-army
:37:55. > :37:59.officer, I am not sure that air strikes on their own would make a
:38:00. > :38:07.big difference militarily, and I'm not sure about the impact they would
:38:08. > :38:09.have on our security here in the UK, because we are talking about
:38:10. > :38:13.home-grown terrorism and extremism, we're talking about narratives of
:38:14. > :38:21.hatred here in the UK, and we're talking about lone wolves. So I'm
:38:22. > :38:27.not sure how these air strikes would help us.
:38:28. > :38:30.What you're saying is that not attacking Syria isn't going to make
:38:31. > :38:34.it any less likely that we would have home-grown terrorists? I don't
:38:35. > :38:39.know which will make it less likely. It might make it more likely. What
:38:40. > :38:44.I'm sure Rob is that raining bombs down on Raqqa is not going to stop
:38:45. > :38:48.Isil would-be terrorists to and planning and perhaps carrying out
:38:49. > :38:53.terrorist atrocities all over the world. They will continue do this,
:38:54. > :38:59.and the best way to deal with this is intelligent and money. But in the
:39:00. > :39:04.meantime, you would advocate that we do absolutely nothing, we sit on our
:39:05. > :39:10.hands? Yes. The problem is, there isn't an exit strategy. We have been
:39:11. > :39:15.bombing in Iraq for a year to no great effect. You don't need an exit
:39:16. > :39:20.strategy when you have only got aircraft, you just stop. I want to
:39:21. > :39:27.come to the point that the gentleman made about the YPG. If they say to
:39:28. > :39:32.you, you would like some Essam, would you be in favour of it? They
:39:33. > :39:36.are on the ground. You can't say, fight Isis on the ground, we support
:39:37. > :39:42.you, but we won't be giving any support. I think that is what we
:39:43. > :39:46.want to see. Raining bombs down on Raqqa would be bad targeting by the
:39:47. > :39:51.RAF if that is simply what they did. I don't imagine that is what they
:39:52. > :39:54.are planning. But if this escalate as a result of air strikes, and
:39:55. > :39:59.there is much more engagement, and we are not getting anywhere, is it
:40:00. > :40:02.absolutely the case that you think that Britain should never put troops
:40:03. > :40:06.on the ground? No, that is not the case at all. I am not speaking from
:40:07. > :40:10.my colleagues here, but I think there was a very good argument for
:40:11. > :40:16.an international force to secure Palmyra. It could've been done. And
:40:17. > :40:20.it would have sent a signal? I completely disagree. David supported
:40:21. > :40:24.the Iraq war, that was a gross error. We put Western troops into
:40:25. > :40:27.yet another intervention in this region, and it will just flame the
:40:28. > :40:37.sick Arianism, and the religious divides. -- the sectarianism and
:40:38. > :40:41.religious divides. So many different groups in Syria
:40:42. > :40:48.wants so many different things, Christians among them, you can never
:40:49. > :40:51.settle it. And that is the concern. The coalition, the Free Syrian Army
:40:52. > :40:57.facing Assad could splinter into a thousand militia as we saw in Libya,
:40:58. > :41:00.and that brings us back to the exit strategy. When we talk about a gob
:41:01. > :41:06.rounds of strategy long-term, that includes the exit strategy, it is
:41:07. > :41:13.got to include who is going to command that ground. So in that
:41:14. > :41:18.case, if you don't believe that we have an exit strategy, is what you
:41:19. > :41:25.are saying just now that what we have to do realistically is leave
:41:26. > :41:30.Bashar al-Assad in position now? We need to identify by whatever means
:41:31. > :41:38.who are the ground forces... That is a yes! Without ground forces, all of
:41:39. > :41:43.us can accept, air strikes alone can never... It strikes me that if that
:41:44. > :41:47.is what you are saying, then ultimately, if we don't have those
:41:48. > :41:51.forces on the ground, you do have to leave Bashar al-Assad where he is. I
:41:52. > :41:59.think there is a point where you have got to say... I think Matthew
:42:00. > :42:07.Parris's words are irresponsible in raining bombs down. Nobody is
:42:08. > :42:14.suggesting we do that to Assad. We want to target bombs, and also cut
:42:15. > :42:18.off their supplies. If we hit Isis as well as we can disrupt their
:42:19. > :42:24.ability to take effect against us... And can you respond to that?
:42:25. > :42:29.That is always the aim, you never aim to exact collateral damage, but
:42:30. > :42:32.you always end up doing it. Ladies and gentlemen, we're coming to the
:42:33. > :42:42.closing moments of our programme, so we want final thoughts. stop we are
:42:43. > :42:47.only being asked to continue doing what we're doing in Iraq. What we
:42:48. > :42:52.are doing will be little enough but would be something and it would
:42:53. > :42:55.help. There is no easy decision in foreign policy, just hard choices.
:42:56. > :43:01.The present the greatest threat to the west, is a President Assad or
:43:02. > :43:05.Isil? If it is Isil then we have to identify how best to capture
:43:06. > :43:11.background with local forces. At the moment because we cannot answer
:43:12. > :43:15.those questions and do not know what the exit strategy is, we should be
:43:16. > :43:21.cautious. The more you intervene the more you take responsibility for
:43:22. > :43:23.events on the ground. The United Nations called on all countries to
:43:24. > :43:29.use all necessary means to tackle the global terror threat posed by
:43:30. > :43:34.Islamic State. We must tackle the ideology at home, work against them
:43:35. > :43:39.in Syria and take all steps to reduce the loss of civilian life in
:43:40. > :43:45.that country. If any of you here who were undecided have firmed up their
:43:46. > :43:51.opinion, can you tell me? I am more anxious about going to war. And if
:43:52. > :43:58.they're asking for all necessary action, I want to see the funding
:43:59. > :44:04.stopped. I have moved more to the anti-airstrikes position because it
:44:05. > :44:07.sounds to me like air strikes is one thing but we will snowball into
:44:08. > :44:14.something else but we have been in before, another Iraq. And the
:44:15. > :44:19.gentleman at the back? I think there is no clear evidence that bombing
:44:20. > :44:24.Syria will make London or Manchester safer. I have not heard anything of
:44:25. > :44:33.that tonight. Thank you all very much. That is all we have time for.
:44:34. > :44:39.Less than half of voters back air strikes on Syria according to The
:44:40. > :44:43.Times front page tomorrow. And the UK strategy is based on wishful
:44:44. > :44:53.thinking and poor information, the Daily Telegraph. Cameron launches an
:44:54. > :44:58.all-out attack on Labour ahead of the vote. And the Daily Telegraph
:44:59. > :45:00.Jeremy Corbyn the terrorist sympathiser. That is all we have