:00:00. > :00:00.Is Europe in the midst of an anti-refugee backlash,
:00:07. > :00:09.as Denmark, part of liberal Scandinavia,
:00:10. > :00:26.We think that it is fair, that they should pay for their stay in
:00:27. > :00:28.Denmark. Why should taxpayers pay for the period of time that they are
:00:29. > :00:30.living in Denmark? Refugees and migrants
:00:31. > :00:32.are a big issue for Europe - Labour's leading In campaigner,
:00:33. > :00:40.Alan Johnson, gives his reaction. And Labour's internecine
:00:41. > :00:42.war over Trident, will their defence review pour cold
:00:43. > :00:49.water on it or more petrol? The co-chair of the review tells
:00:50. > :00:51.Newsnight we'll soon We will desperately try to do it
:00:52. > :00:57.as rapidly as possible, so we will focus on the Trident
:00:58. > :00:57.issue ahead of the rest And that could be
:00:58. > :01:00.done within months, Also tonight - a bleak time
:01:01. > :01:15.for the black stuff. And Airbnb, the website
:01:16. > :01:20.where you can rent, or rent out Is the so-called sharing
:01:21. > :01:27.economy the future or just Watch out for a surfeit of headlines
:01:28. > :01:43.using the phrase "something is rotten in the state of Denmark"
:01:44. > :01:47.or variants thereon. Because Denmark is set to move ahead
:01:48. > :01:50.with a package of measures to deter asylum seekers from
:01:51. > :01:55.trying to settle there. Expropriating their assets to make
:01:56. > :01:58.them pay for their stay - not a wedding ring or items
:01:59. > :02:00.with sentimental value, but cash or possessions worth
:02:01. > :02:02.more than about ?1,000. Delaying the point at which families
:02:03. > :02:07.can join mothers or fathers. The United Nations ranks Denmark
:02:08. > :02:10.as the fourth most developed country in the world, but the UN
:02:11. > :02:12.High Commissioner for Refugees called the measures "deeply
:02:13. > :02:14.concerning", and an affront Well, this latest Danish response
:02:15. > :02:21.to the flow of people into Europe is part of what looks
:02:22. > :02:24.like a backlash at the liberal values that have enticed people
:02:25. > :02:26.to this continent. Katie Razzall reports from
:02:27. > :02:49.Copenhagen. What do you take with you when you
:02:50. > :02:58.leave your home and travel thousands of miles by boat, by bus, on foot?
:02:59. > :03:04.Is it those sentimental possessions that remind you of the life you once
:03:05. > :03:08.had? Or valuables, to sustain you on the journey? This Iraqi family told
:03:09. > :03:10.me they had left Baghdad for Copenhagen with a few clothes and
:03:11. > :03:13.some money, which quickly disappeared. TRANSLATION: We only
:03:14. > :03:17.brought the essentials, nothing really valuable. We paid all the
:03:18. > :03:22.money we had to the smugglers to bring us here. There was anger today
:03:23. > :03:27.outside the Danish parliament as, insight, politicians debated and new
:03:28. > :03:31.Immigration Bill. In future, rivals to this country will be searched,
:03:32. > :03:36.and assets like money worth more than 10,000 kroner or ?1000, and any
:03:37. > :03:41.valuables, although not wedding rings or mobile phones, will be
:03:42. > :03:44.compensated -- confiscated to reimburse the taxpayer for the cost
:03:45. > :03:47.of looking after them. We are looking to limit the flow of
:03:48. > :03:51.refugees coming into Denmark and those who are coming into Denmark,
:03:52. > :03:56.we think it is fair that they should pay for their stay. Why should the
:03:57. > :04:01.taxpayers pay for a period of time that they are living in Denmark? We
:04:02. > :04:05.think it is quite fair. I actually do not understand why there has been
:04:06. > :04:10.such a big debate about this. It is just common sense. Unlike Sweden,
:04:11. > :04:14.Denmark has been tightening up its laws on migrants for some time. But
:04:15. > :04:18.there has been nothing quite as controversial as the plan to strip
:04:19. > :04:22.them of their valuables. The Prime Minister, keen to protect his
:04:23. > :04:26.country's reputation as a just and fair society, says this is the most
:04:27. > :04:31.misunderstood bill in Danish history. With Europe floundering
:04:32. > :04:37.over how to deal with the migrant crisis, will other countries
:04:38. > :04:41.introduce similar measures? Last summer, in the wake of the death of
:04:42. > :04:45.the boy washed up on a Turkish beach, Europe felt like a much more
:04:46. > :04:50.friendly place for migrants. Germans welcomed them with flowers and food
:04:51. > :04:56.and the strangers into their homes. Back then, hardliners who floated
:04:57. > :04:59.concerns about integration, were castigated for their pitiless nests.
:05:00. > :05:04.But now the mood is hardening as fears about crime and community
:05:05. > :05:09.discord grow and Europe is putting up fences in an effort to shut
:05:10. > :05:15.people out. Across Europe, there has been a race to the bottom as states
:05:16. > :05:18.have been trying to outbid each other on creating restrictive
:05:19. > :05:22.policies to make asylum seekers seek asylum in neighbouring states rather
:05:23. > :05:28.than their own. Denmark has been part of that and I think this
:05:29. > :05:33.current bill is part of the politics of deterrence, whereby the Danish
:05:34. > :05:38.state is actively cultivating a new image as being unwelcoming to
:05:39. > :05:42.refugees. Last June, here in Denmark, they had a change of
:05:43. > :05:49.political leadership. If you have watched an episode of Borgen, you
:05:50. > :05:53.will know that compromise is everything in Danish politics. If
:05:54. > :05:57.this was an episode of Borgen, in the end, Liberal values would
:05:58. > :06:04.triumph. But right now, in reality, it is the right setting the agenda.
:06:05. > :06:08.That has meant cut in -- tough changes, including cuts to migrant
:06:09. > :06:09.benefits of up to 50% and new Danish language requirements before
:06:10. > :06:12.permanent residency is offered. Migrants already can't
:06:13. > :06:13.bring family over for The government wants
:06:14. > :06:16.that up three years. And shorter residency statuses
:06:17. > :06:18.being given to those The Prime Minister recently even
:06:19. > :06:29.called for reform to the UN 1951 20,000 migrants like these came to
:06:30. > :06:33.Denmark last year. They are awaiting news on their status in a country
:06:34. > :06:36.whose leadership apparently wishes they had never arrived. What does
:06:37. > :06:40.this family think of the planned to take away people's assets?
:06:41. > :06:45.TRANSLATION: Of course it is not a good thing, I don't like it. For
:06:46. > :06:48.people like us who left Baghdad or those who travelled from Syria, they
:06:49. > :06:53.lost their houses and money. It is hard for them to lose whatever
:06:54. > :07:01.remains. They already lost jobs, houses and maybe relatives in the
:07:02. > :07:04.war. It will be hard to take what they have. They will have nothing of
:07:05. > :07:06.value left. The Immigration Bill will be voted on later this month.
:07:07. > :07:10.But the government says it has the backing of enough parties to get it
:07:11. > :07:12.through. Watching closely will be other European nations with an eye
:07:13. > :07:14.on opinion polls at home. Out of all this arises one
:07:15. > :07:17.overarching long-term question for Europe,
:07:18. > :07:19.and a short-term tactical The short-term one is
:07:20. > :07:24.whether the recent turn of events in the refugee and migration debate
:07:25. > :07:27.will affect Britain's EU referendum To put it bluntly, will it
:07:28. > :07:34.derail the In campaign? The bigger question
:07:35. > :07:36.is whether migration will challenge what we like to regard as European
:07:37. > :07:39.tolerance and openness. One man who should be reflecting
:07:40. > :07:42.on both these is the former He was in government at a time
:07:43. > :07:46.when migration into the UK was high, and he is now in charge
:07:47. > :08:01.of Labour's pro-EU campaign. My first question, is the recent
:08:02. > :08:07.refugee crisis in Germany and Sweden going to damage the campaign? It
:08:08. > :08:10.could damage it, but if you use that as the answer, you will come out of
:08:11. > :08:15.the European Union. You might as well come out of the United Nations.
:08:16. > :08:19.It is an issue for them as well, big movements across the world.
:08:20. > :08:24.Withdrawing from these organisations will march the lack solve it. --
:08:25. > :08:27.will not solve it. We are in the best position, we are not part of
:08:28. > :08:31.the Schengen Agreement but we are part of the Dublin accord. People
:08:32. > :08:35.coming from outside the European Union, they will need to register in
:08:36. > :08:41.the first country they come to. If we are outside the European Union,
:08:42. > :08:45.that would not be the case. But we are part of Schengen, so you need a
:08:46. > :08:49.visa. It will make things worse. Incidentally, our most vulnerable
:08:50. > :08:53.point, Calais to Dover, because we are part of the UN we have good
:08:54. > :08:57.relationships with France, we have a border control in Calais. The first
:08:58. > :09:01.thing that will happen if we take back our borders, France would take
:09:02. > :09:05.back its border and our most vulnerable point in these islands
:09:06. > :09:09.would be more vulnerable still. I would make the argument that we will
:09:10. > :09:12.be worse off outside. You acknowledge it might be an issue
:09:13. > :09:16.that damages the campaign? It happened over the summer. The number
:09:17. > :09:23.of people in terms of appalling that work pro-EU reduced over the summer
:09:24. > :09:30.when they sought that kind of footage. -- in terms of the polling
:09:31. > :09:34.that were pro-EU. But when you get down to the real campaigning, it
:09:35. > :09:38.means talking about the facts. The public will think of migration and
:09:39. > :09:41.refugees as intertwined issues. They will think we have many people
:09:42. > :09:44.coming in from the continent of Europe and we do not have control of
:09:45. > :09:50.our border with the continent, because anyone with a passport can
:09:51. > :09:54.come to Britain. Now what is your lying going to be, through the
:09:55. > :09:59.campaign, through the referendum, to most people, who would say, if we're
:10:00. > :10:03.not in the EU, we get more control over who comes to our country? You
:10:04. > :10:09.are going to have to have an answer to that. Yes, and the answer is that
:10:10. > :10:13.that would not happen on any of the models that the campaign are looking
:10:14. > :10:17.at. You would not have control of the border if you left? Because the
:10:18. > :10:21.Germans or the Swedes or citizens of Italy... If we did have that, we
:10:22. > :10:24.would have an economy that was plummeting and we would be in a
:10:25. > :10:29.sorry state, because if we apply those measures, they were bright
:10:30. > :10:31.apply those measures as well. Britain has more people living
:10:32. > :10:36.abroad, working in developed countries, than any in Europe,
:10:37. > :10:42.including Poland. It is a two-way street. All the models that say you
:10:43. > :10:44.are outside Europe but you take advantage of the biggest commercial
:10:45. > :10:51.market in the world, bigger than the US or China, involve free movement.
:10:52. > :10:54.Can I ask you, are you in favour of free movement, basically? Suppose
:10:55. > :11:00.that Europeans came to us and said we could doubt. I am in favour of
:11:01. > :11:06.it. Do you think the public like it? I think the public would see the
:11:07. > :11:10.benefit, that you cannot have this... Children in particular,
:11:11. > :11:14.teenagers, youngsters, they happily cross borders without even thinking
:11:15. > :11:19.about it. Families go on holiday to Spain and they do not need a visa.
:11:20. > :11:24.When you look at the practicalities of moving away from free movement,
:11:25. > :11:30.then you go back in time to a world that did not exist in terms of this
:11:31. > :11:33.nirvana of the 50s. You go back to a less tolerant world, a world that is
:11:34. > :11:41.less prosperous and a Britain that is less able to punch its way
:11:42. > :11:45.through the world. I wonder, is a sense out there that government,
:11:46. > :11:49.people in authority, have pulled the wool over the public's ice? They
:11:50. > :11:53.feel that in Germany and Sweden where the police are scared to talk
:11:54. > :11:56.about migrant crime. Frankly, they feel it was something that the
:11:57. > :12:00.Labour government did with migration and they never really said they were
:12:01. > :12:03.going to let a million Polish people into the country but many more
:12:04. > :12:11.people came into the country than the public expected. There is this
:12:12. > :12:16.sense of the EU being a slightly elite project which has moved away
:12:17. > :12:20.from what the public were told it was about, and not necessarily what
:12:21. > :12:26.they wanted to be about. I think as you get into the debate on the
:12:27. > :12:30.referendum, the unavoidable question, are we staying or are we
:12:31. > :12:33.going, I think we will concentrate on these misconceptions. We will
:12:34. > :12:36.make the argument for Europe which has not been made on the left for
:12:37. > :12:41.ten years. I am leading a united campaign on this. The Labour Party
:12:42. > :12:46.has changed since 1975 but I think we also have exposed the thing, what
:12:47. > :12:52.did we vote for in 1975? I was there and I delivered the leaflets for the
:12:53. > :12:56.yes campaign. Looking at that again, it was about the European economic
:12:57. > :13:00.community, about closer political union, it was the idea of setting up
:13:01. > :13:04.a European Parliament. All this stuff of saying we voted just for
:13:05. > :13:07.the common market, it is not true, and there are lots of things wrong
:13:08. > :13:11.with Europe and lots of things wrong with the United Nations. There is
:13:12. > :13:16.not a perfect institution but in a sense, are we better being part of
:13:17. > :13:21.our continent? Through this forum, the forum through which we can
:13:22. > :13:25.handle our independence? The answer must be yes on every kind of level.
:13:26. > :13:31.Are you saying that when the public voted yes to the common market in
:13:32. > :13:35.1975 they could have anticipated all of the things that could have
:13:36. > :13:40.followed? They might be scared of voting yes in 2016 if they think
:13:41. > :13:44.there will be that much happening thereafter. The arguments to people
:13:45. > :13:47.who were not around at the time, including Nigel Farage, because I do
:13:48. > :13:51.not think he was old enough to vote, is that we have just voted for a
:13:52. > :13:58.market. Now, you didn't. If you look back, you can research it. There was
:13:59. > :14:03.no pulling the wool over the eyes? Far from it. The yes campaign was
:14:04. > :14:07.very straightforward. For example, we said it would not solve our
:14:08. > :14:10.economic problems, it would not resolve our prosperity but it was
:14:11. > :14:15.part of something bigger and increasingly interdependent. The no
:14:16. > :14:19.campaign, they said that if you stayed in, it would be part of a
:14:20. > :14:25.country called Europe, there would be no Italy or Germany. Read it.
:14:26. > :14:29.That fantasy of one country, as if the Germans or the Italians would
:14:30. > :14:34.want to be part of that country. But it is dead. Have you told them it is
:14:35. > :14:42.dead?! Cameron made the point in Parliament, the other day, that
:14:43. > :14:45.there is a great deal... Europe, when necessary, nation states
:14:46. > :14:50.usually deal with these issues. But give me, in a sentence, the
:14:51. > :14:56.emotional pitch. Give me the positive vision for being in the EU?
:14:57. > :14:59.It is that the European Union was created after world wars on our
:15:00. > :15:04.continent that started every 20 years. In 1975, the guys in the post
:15:05. > :15:13.office were people who had fought in those wars. They had seen very much,
:15:14. > :15:17.as Churchill put it, ... I wonder whether you think that is still
:15:18. > :15:23.something that works? We're not going to war with Germany, in or out
:15:24. > :15:28.of the EU. Might it need updated. It is out of date. It is useful to
:15:29. > :15:33.remind people. When we debated this in 1975, Franco was in power in
:15:34. > :15:38.Spain. The whole block of eastern Europe was under totalitarian rule.
:15:39. > :15:41.They have moved from oligarchy to democracy without a shot being
:15:42. > :15:47.fired, that is part of the poetry of working together on this continent.
:15:48. > :15:52.The prose, it is trade. The market, nobody loves a market but as you
:15:53. > :15:56.know, this is a crucial part of our prosperity. I'm going to say to you
:15:57. > :16:02.that the pros are as important as the poetry. And that suggests that
:16:03. > :16:07.walking off into isolation means walking off into isolation in the
:16:08. > :16:11.world. I am interested in whether you buy into David Cameron's
:16:12. > :16:15.renegotiation attempt. He has obviously set out his agenda. You'll
:16:16. > :16:20.like what he is trying to do or is your lover for the EU on
:16:21. > :16:25.conditional? -- do you like what he is trying to do. It is not love. I
:16:26. > :16:30.am not a fanatic but I think that most of the British public, I hope,
:16:31. > :16:34.on balance, think that it is better that we are in the European Union. I
:16:35. > :16:36.think it is a sideshow and it is more about the future of the
:16:37. > :16:40.Conservative Party than the future of the country but as I want us to
:16:41. > :16:46.stay in the EU, I wanted to do enough to allow him to come and fly
:16:47. > :16:51.the flag for Europe. Do you think it is a bit of a sham? I think so. The
:16:52. > :16:56.other thing is the referendum will not be on that package, it will be,
:16:57. > :17:00.do you want to stay or do you want to go. Trident is looming as an
:17:01. > :17:05.issue and it looks fraught. Will it damage the party if they chose to
:17:06. > :17:06.reject Trident? I hope not. I hope it shows that we have
:17:07. > :17:11.reject Trident? I hope not. I hope debate, like what is going on in the
:17:12. > :17:15.country, and we have come down, after having deliberated on this,
:17:16. > :17:20.one way or the other. One thing is for sure, we cannot have to
:17:21. > :17:25.different positions. And your position? I am pro Trident. I am pro
:17:26. > :17:31.nuclear disarmament through multilateral disarmament. Everyone
:17:32. > :17:35.is looking for that. Do you have any regrets about not standing in that
:17:36. > :17:40.leadership election? A lot of people, they were saying just the
:17:41. > :17:44.other day, you were the only one that could potentially have beaten
:17:45. > :17:48.Jeremy Corbyn. I wonder, giving you are on a different wing of the
:17:49. > :17:52.party, if you look back and think, why did I not do it, I could have
:17:53. > :17:56.taken him on? I wonder how many times more I have to say this. I
:17:57. > :18:00.never wanted to be leader. I did not have the for that. I am pleased that
:18:01. > :18:06.there are people who want to do their job. I do not want to do it
:18:07. > :18:10.and I never have done, and I never would've done. Denis Healey felt
:18:11. > :18:14.that he had let the movement down because he did not fight hard enough
:18:15. > :18:21.to beat Michael Foot. You do not feel the same? Dennis had our rate
:18:22. > :18:26.phrase, he felt he was the best predator we never had. Then why the
:18:27. > :18:29.hell was he not party leader? Sometimes people put it to me, but
:18:30. > :18:36.it is my life and I will lead it my way. Thank you.
:18:37. > :18:43.On the Europe subject, the Telegraph tomorrow carries a piece by Chris
:18:44. > :18:50.Grayling who calls for British membership of the EU on current
:18:51. > :18:53.terms disastrous. He also says he supports renegotiation, so maybe
:18:54. > :18:57.staying in the Cabinet rules about what you are or are not allowed to
:18:58. > :18:58.say about the EU at the moment. We should be talking about George
:18:59. > :19:02.Osborne about Europe tomorrow night. Now, you heard Alan Johnson talking
:19:03. > :19:04.about Trident there. A vote is coming up
:19:05. > :19:06.on replacing it this year, Labour is in a strange place -
:19:07. > :19:10.the party policy says yes to replacing Trident,
:19:11. > :19:12.the leader says no to it, and there is a review designed
:19:13. > :19:15.to sort out the gap. It's exactly 30 years
:19:16. > :19:25.since Margaret Thatcher laid the keel for HMS Vanguard,
:19:26. > :19:27.a new generation of Trident In all that time, Jeremy Corbyn has
:19:28. > :19:35.been active in the campaign He is committed to Britain
:19:36. > :19:40.giving up nuclear weapons. I am opposed to the holding
:19:41. > :19:43.and the usage of nuclear weapons. They are an ultimate weapon of mass
:19:44. > :19:46.destruction that can only kill In changing Labour's policy,
:19:47. > :19:52.though, Jeremy Corbyn has two big enemies -
:19:53. > :19:58.time and votes. The only way to change that policy
:19:59. > :20:11.is through a vote at the party's annual conference, but that doesn't
:20:12. > :20:13.happen until the end of September,. Well before that, Parliament
:20:14. > :20:15.could have decided the issue Sources inside the MoD have told me
:20:16. > :20:23.that that maingate vote could come It will certainly happen,
:20:24. > :20:31.I've been told, before Parliament In other words, long before Labour
:20:32. > :20:36.can change its policy officially. John Woodcock is a Labour MP
:20:37. > :20:39.committed to securing Trident's renewal, not least because the four
:20:40. > :20:41.new subs would be built Let's focus on something
:20:42. > :20:48.where we can make a difference for the people who desperately need
:20:49. > :20:52.Labour to be a credible opposition rather than spending time tearing
:20:53. > :20:55.ourselves apart as a party for something which is
:20:56. > :21:00.going to happen anyway. There is a cast-iron majority
:21:01. > :21:03.in Parliament for this project go past the point of no return,
:21:04. > :21:08.so no matter what Jeremy does or even if he were to magic
:21:09. > :21:11.up a changed policy, which he won't, it is not go to make
:21:12. > :21:15.a difference to the fact that these The next problem that Jeremy Corbyn
:21:16. > :21:20.has to deal with is votes. 50% of the votes at conference
:21:21. > :21:28.needed to change the policy come There are reports that
:21:29. > :21:32.Len McCluskey, general secretary of the largest union,
:21:33. > :21:35.Unite, will make a speech this weekend hardening his position
:21:36. > :21:37.against the policy change. If he does that, it will add his
:21:38. > :21:40.voice to that of Paul Kenny If anybody thinks that unions
:21:41. > :21:51.like the GMB are going to go quietly into the night while tens
:21:52. > :21:53.of thousands of our members' jobs are literally swanneed way
:21:54. > :21:56.by rhetoric, then they have got But Jeremy Corbyn says he wants
:21:57. > :21:59.to explore new ways for Labour to make policy, perhaps involving
:22:00. > :22:02.online votes of the party's members. That idea, though, was slapped down
:22:03. > :22:04.pretty emphatically this week by Ian McNicol,
:22:05. > :22:06.Labour's general secretary, Nevertheless, an online vote
:22:07. > :22:16.could be used to put pressure on Labour MPs and even shadow
:22:17. > :22:18.ministers to move in the direction What could also add to the pressure
:22:19. > :22:24.is Labour's defence review, originally to be chaired
:22:25. > :22:26.by Ken Livingstone, who opposes Trident,
:22:27. > :22:29.and the then Shadow Defence Secretary, Maria Eagle,
:22:30. > :22:33.who is in favour. But last week, she was replaced
:22:34. > :22:35.by Emily Thornbury, who also opposes Ken Livingstone told me that they
:22:36. > :22:40.aim to have a recommendation We will desperately try and do it
:22:41. > :22:47.as rapidly as possible, so we will focus on the Trident
:22:48. > :22:50.issue ahead of the rest And that could be done
:22:51. > :22:55.within months, couple of months? With a bit of luck, that could be
:22:56. > :23:07.done in eight to ten weeks, it will take a lot of work for me
:23:08. > :23:10.and Emily, but that's good. The timetable won't reassure some
:23:11. > :23:12.Labour MPs, who suspect that the review has been set up to
:23:13. > :23:15.come to a predetermined conclusion. If you are Venezuela,
:23:16. > :23:20.Saudi Arabia or BP, the year has Something extraordinary has been
:23:21. > :23:23.happening to the oil price - it's been tumbling to levels
:23:24. > :23:26.no-one thought we'd see. Brent Crude dropped below $30
:23:27. > :23:28.a barrel for the first time BP has in fact announced job cuts
:23:29. > :23:36.in its North Sea activities. The Chancellor referred
:23:37. > :23:38.to a cocktail of risks in the world Some think cheap oil
:23:39. > :23:41.is one ingredient, Others think it's going
:23:42. > :24:04.to ameliorate the worst. It's interesting that for all its
:24:05. > :24:21.importance in our lives, we don't very often get to see large amounts
:24:22. > :24:30.of oil, to stand in awe at its power, to smell it. You have to
:24:31. > :24:35.remember the world divides into oil haves and have-nots. The best way to
:24:36. > :24:39.look at the change in price is to think of it is a big hand-out from
:24:40. > :24:44.one group to another. The oil price goes up more I am worse off, Saudi
:24:45. > :24:50.Arabia wins, and when prices go down, as they have, it is the other
:24:51. > :24:55.way round full the oil industry and oil exporting countries have gotten
:24:56. > :25:00.very used to $100 oil, and just assumed that $100 oil was going to
:25:01. > :25:05.be the normal price forever. Wrong assumption! Here is the price of oil
:25:06. > :25:10.in 2015. It is now half what it was last summer. On a longer view, back
:25:11. > :25:16.45 years, you can see the recent swing is one of the big shift of the
:25:17. > :25:20.modern era. Right now, there is simply too much oil. And you can see
:25:21. > :25:24.it if you go to a place like Singapore. I was there recently and
:25:25. > :25:30.you can see all the tankers sitting there doing not much, just simply
:25:31. > :25:36.storing oil. When you have $90 oil, people were combing the world for
:25:37. > :25:39.primary sources of hydrocarbon where there were plenty of different areas
:25:40. > :25:44.which were being developed. And all of them have different financial
:25:45. > :25:49.characteristics, and some of them will not survive at these low prices
:25:50. > :25:55.if they continue, as I expect they will continue.
:25:56. > :26:05.You see, new oil came on tap like US shale. Edward Gold prices, but
:26:06. > :26:13.paradoxically, all that new oil drove prices down, killing its own
:26:14. > :26:19.business model. And that is cause of concern over one. Those that lead or
:26:20. > :26:23.invested find they are kind of where sub-prime lenders were a decade
:26:24. > :26:30.back. We have seen a huge bubble within the oil market in terms of
:26:31. > :26:34.bumps, 18% of bond assurance in the US is oil related. We are now seeing
:26:35. > :26:39.significant problems within that market. I think you have seen a lot
:26:40. > :26:45.of the big operators who have locked in the oil price for most of next
:26:46. > :26:48.year, so they are still at $60 plus when the current spot price is in
:26:49. > :26:53.the 30s, so they haven't run into problems yet. Clearly the issue is
:26:54. > :26:57.if the price remains in the 30s and that locking expires, and you have
:26:58. > :27:01.to sell at the spot rate rather than $60, that is where you see more
:27:02. > :27:05.financial distress. From the oil sector to the problems
:27:06. > :27:10.of the financial sector. There are other grounds for worry, too. You
:27:11. > :27:14.can't separate what is happening with oil prices by themselves from
:27:15. > :27:19.other things that are happening in the world economy. So, to some
:27:20. > :27:22.degree, oil prices today are also a thermometer telling us there is a
:27:23. > :27:27.lot of weakness in the world economy, so we will see a cycle, but
:27:28. > :27:35.right now, the name of the game is survival.
:27:36. > :27:39.# Riding along in my automobile... But forget the losers, who needs
:27:40. > :27:46.losers? There are winners in the oil market, too. Right from the earliest
:27:47. > :27:50.days of our oil fuelled economy, some fundamental rules have applied
:27:51. > :27:53.telling us that cheap oil is good for growth. It is just a vintage
:27:54. > :28:02.economics. As you know, oil powered automobiles
:28:03. > :28:07.have caught on, and we can do a back of the envelope calculation as to
:28:08. > :28:13.the benefit of an oil price cut. So today, we pump something like 20
:28:14. > :28:18.million tonnes, 20 billion litres, of petrol and diesel into our cars.
:28:19. > :28:23.If you cut the price by 15p, that is ?3 billion into the pockets of
:28:24. > :28:28.consumers. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. And also
:28:29. > :28:32.supports the economy more generally by creating lower energy costs for
:28:33. > :28:35.businesses, that gives more space for investment and for overall
:28:36. > :28:40.employment in the UK. I think the ready reckoner that we had in our
:28:41. > :28:49.mind is when oil prices fell from over $100 back in the summer 18
:28:50. > :28:57.months ago to $50 that that gave a boost to the UK economy of around
:28:58. > :29:00.0.5% to GDP. Oil isn't what it was in the 50s. Al post-industrial
:29:01. > :29:06.economy is less oil intensive than it was. Old ready reckoner is may
:29:07. > :29:13.have weakened. But all in all, while there is a lot to worry about at the
:29:14. > :29:19.moment, cheap oil probably gets two Cheers. Two, not three.
:29:20. > :29:24.Just worry about nations that are so dependent on revenues from oil that
:29:25. > :29:28.there may be some unexpected instability. And it usually is
:29:29. > :29:32.unexpected. So it is not all good news, but on
:29:33. > :29:36.balance, I would say it is good news for the consumer, not so good news
:29:37. > :29:38.if you are in the oil and gas business.
:29:39. > :29:41.And I should say thank you to the Brooklands Museum
:29:42. > :29:44.in Weybridge for the loan of that old Ford motor and the use
:29:45. > :29:50.That was a very evenhanded account of it.
:29:51. > :29:53.Joining me now are Sir Alan Duncan, Conservative MP and former Minister
:29:54. > :29:56.for International Development, and Gillian Tett, US Managing Editor
:29:57. > :30:07.Good evening to you both. You can see at glass half full is empty.
:30:08. > :30:11.Which is it? You will sound like a classic Scrooge if you say it is
:30:12. > :30:14.half ten T. The reality is it is great for consumers driving cars,
:30:15. > :30:17.but if this oil price fall has occurred just across the cars were
:30:18. > :30:21.becoming so efficient they didn't need oil so much any more, because
:30:22. > :30:26.suddenly people have found a whole lot more oil, that would be good.
:30:27. > :30:29.The problem is that this oil price fall is partly because of sheer
:30:30. > :30:32.political tension and rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the US, but
:30:33. > :30:42.also because demand is falling in places like China, and that is
:30:43. > :30:48.worrying. And you say that it is to do with the geopolitical thinking?
:30:49. > :30:53.It does appear that one factor driving policy is the fact that Opec
:30:54. > :30:58.has been unravelling, but also that some Saudi leaders are trying to
:30:59. > :31:07.undermine the US shale industry. But it is extraordinary. Yes, we are
:31:08. > :31:13.back to $30 oil, which is where I came in water years ago. The issue
:31:14. > :31:18.is this. We all love low prices at the pump. But what we have seen over
:31:19. > :31:21.the last year is extraordinary volatility, and that volatility,
:31:22. > :31:25.going down from over 100 to about 30 unleashes massive forces when money
:31:26. > :31:29.moves across the globe and has consequences, and I think the sort
:31:30. > :31:33.of consequences we can see at the immediate effects of the oil
:31:34. > :31:38.services sector losing jobs, and of course the North Sea is suffering,
:31:39. > :31:43.and that will hurt us as the UK. We are seeing a lot of oil producing
:31:44. > :31:47.countries needing some thing like $80 oil to pay their way, so if they
:31:48. > :31:51.have financial deficits, they will have to Saky no enormous amount of
:31:52. > :31:53.money by liquidating assets or borrowing, and you then end up with
:31:54. > :31:59.a liquidity squeeze which could but up interest rates, and so we will
:32:00. > :32:01.also, as Julian Cuesta rightly says, look we looking at geopolitical
:32:02. > :32:08.pressures in oil producing countries. These are massive forces.
:32:09. > :32:13.If there was ever a moment you don't want geopolitical pressures, it is
:32:14. > :32:18.right now. We have a story at the FT saying that BP is slashing jobs,
:32:19. > :32:22.4000 jobs, a big hit on North Sea oil, all these kinds of jobs. You
:32:23. > :32:26.are seeing a number of emerging market and countries which are big
:32:27. > :32:30.oil producers having a squeeze right now which frankly the world doesn't
:32:31. > :32:33.need in terms of instability. It is right to think essentially if
:32:34. > :32:39.you are involved in oil, this is clearly awful. Should people who are
:32:40. > :32:43.not involved in oil, who don't own BP and don't work in the oil
:32:44. > :32:53.industry, but you can buy petrol at ?1 per litre, should they, it you
:32:54. > :32:58.called it potentially catastrophic in the Commons today, and you ask
:32:59. > :33:03.the question of the Prime Minister on it. Is it simply a problem for
:33:04. > :33:08.people in the oil industry? No, it isn't, because there is a volatility
:33:09. > :33:13.and instability. There is global instability politically in the
:33:14. > :33:17.Middle East, but you put that to one side, if you are a pensioner, it is
:33:18. > :33:29.impossible to exaggerate the number of pension funds that rely heavily
:33:30. > :33:34.on'S dividends -- rely heavily on the shell's dividends for their
:33:35. > :33:38.pension pot. I want people to be able to fill their back after less
:33:39. > :33:42.than ?1 per litre, but other things with that good news. I wouldn't be
:33:43. > :33:50.quite so gloomy. Other studies have been done in the US which are
:33:51. > :33:54.countries that are far more dependent on petrol than the UK, and
:33:55. > :33:58.they were saying families are saving $700 per year. And that is good. But
:33:59. > :34:02.the interesting thing is, when you look at whether on not the consumer
:34:03. > :34:05.is spending that windfall, it looks like only about half of it is being
:34:06. > :34:10.spent, because people are still pretty scarred by the whole 2008
:34:11. > :34:14.financial crisis, so if you look at the overall economic boost, you are
:34:15. > :34:19.probably not going to see the simple sums, what they suggest. Suppose we
:34:20. > :34:22.found a big hole in the North Pole, and out of it just came as much oil
:34:23. > :34:28.as we possibly needed, put aside concerns about the planet, because
:34:29. > :34:31.we haven't talked about those. If we could all have free oil in unlimited
:34:32. > :34:35.quantities, would you tell me that is bad news that the economics of
:34:36. > :34:39.the world, or would you say, thank goodness, we don't have to worry
:34:40. > :34:43.about energy any more. It is a wonderful hypothetical question. In
:34:44. > :34:52.the long-term, cheap energy is a good thing, although in terms of
:34:53. > :34:57.green... Let's say it's green oil! It would dramatically change in
:34:58. > :35:00.historic ways the balance of power, wealth and everything else across
:35:01. > :35:03.the world. It would be the end of the Middle East in terms of their
:35:04. > :35:10.wealth, of course. You can write a book about this, I am sure. It would
:35:11. > :35:11.be a big deal, anyway. Thank you both very much. Sorry, we have to
:35:12. > :35:14.leave it there. Oil is not the only sector that's
:35:15. > :35:17.been having a hard time. Hotels have been complaining
:35:18. > :35:19.that they face unfair competition It's the web service that allows
:35:20. > :35:23.ordinary people to take on Holiday Inn by renting
:35:24. > :35:26.out their spare rooms to strangers. Or in some cases, as the hotels
:35:27. > :35:30.point out, their spare What's clear is that
:35:31. > :35:44.Airbnb is catching on. After hosting hundreds of guests, I
:35:45. > :35:47.realised how I am connected to these different people who belong from
:35:48. > :35:52.different cultures, different countries and different backgrounds.
:35:53. > :35:58.Being an Airbnb host is being part of a global community. It gave me a
:35:59. > :36:02.faith in humanity, to be honest. They come as guests but they leave
:36:03. > :36:07.as friends. That experience is much more enriching. Imagine today that
:36:08. > :36:09.it is possible for all of us to experience that.
:36:10. > :36:10.Now hotels say it's unfair competiion.
:36:11. > :36:12.They meet certain pernickety rules and regulations -
:36:13. > :36:15.like paying tax - that not all their rivals necessarily feel
:36:16. > :36:19.Today the RSA, the Royal Society of the Arts, published a report
:36:20. > :36:21.arguing that platforms like Airbnb help us take advantage
:36:22. > :36:26.of our underused resources and they extend access.
:36:27. > :36:31.We asked Airbnb to join us, but they are busy tonight.
:36:32. > :36:34.But with me is author of that report, Brhmie Balaram,
:36:35. > :36:35.and from the British Hospitality Association,
:36:36. > :36:49.Good evening. Brhmie Balaram, Tony Abbott about the sharing economy and
:36:50. > :36:52.why you are an enthusiastic that? The report today said that the
:36:53. > :36:58.sharing economy is the beginning of a power shift to the people, and
:36:59. > :37:02.there are now 23 million users in the UK, 80 million users in the US.
:37:03. > :37:06.And this is on the rise. I think it is because rather than depending on
:37:07. > :37:09.big business, people would rather provide what they need and want
:37:10. > :37:12.themselves and do it with each other, so they are beginning to
:37:13. > :37:18.share with each other and there is a lot of social and environmental
:37:19. > :37:21.benefits being realised. It is a lot of areas, where people do not like
:37:22. > :37:29.being disrupted by upstarts coming in online. How do the hotels feel?
:37:30. > :37:34.On one hand, we think it is worthwhile that families are allowed
:37:35. > :37:38.to rent out room or even an entire floor was in their homes to guests.
:37:39. > :37:43.That is a valuable additional offer to tourists. There is a lot to be
:37:44. > :37:47.said for that but on the other hand, we are seeing 47%, almost half of
:37:48. > :37:54.the properties listed in London, professional landlords. So in a
:37:55. > :38:02.sense they are pseudo- hotels, hotels in everything but name. And
:38:03. > :38:07.that leads to some... There are a lot of things wrong with that. These
:38:08. > :38:11.establishments can jump through planning hoops. Planning regulation
:38:12. > :38:16.is there to ensure that housing supply is not restricted. If you
:38:17. > :38:22.restrict housing supply, and this is a lot of users we are talking about,
:38:23. > :38:25.a lot of volume, and 50% of this volume is a professional landlords,
:38:26. > :38:30.that is putting a lot of pressure on rents and inflating property prices,
:38:31. > :38:33.restricting housing in areas like London where housing is a problem.
:38:34. > :38:37.It is noble for you to be worried about housing in London but you are
:38:38. > :38:40.really worried about competition with hotels, fundamentally. The
:38:41. > :38:47.problem with hotels, competition is secondary to the social costs.
:38:48. > :38:49.Reputation is a big issue for us. The establishments, these
:38:50. > :38:53.professional landlords do not have to comply with health and safety
:38:54. > :38:56.regulation, they are not complying with food safety regulation. If
:38:57. > :39:02.something goes wrong, and I would not like us to wait for that, for
:39:03. > :39:05.there to be a terrible fire, 72% of fires in the UK are in homes, these
:39:06. > :39:11.things are readily did and monitored in hotels. If something goes wrong,
:39:12. > :39:17.the reputation will be damaged. I wonder, is there a gap between the
:39:18. > :39:21.way we treat the official sector, the hotels and B who go through
:39:22. > :39:26.planning permission, and the likes of you and I who can rent out a
:39:27. > :39:29.room? Is that a discrepancy we should resolve? I think it is
:39:30. > :39:31.already being resolved. I would urge people to think about what is
:39:32. > :39:37.happening in the states where the debate has been raging for some
:39:38. > :39:42.time. We are seeing the emergence of third-party support for these sorts
:39:43. > :39:47.of platforms. For example, there is an organisation in the US that
:39:48. > :39:50.provides insurance to users on the sharing economy platforms. That sort
:39:51. > :39:57.of invasion has not happened here yet. If I asked them, if I said to
:39:58. > :40:03.them, why not give all the data of how much your participants are
:40:04. > :40:08.earning, and pass that to the Treasury, so we can make sure
:40:09. > :40:12.everyone is paying tax on it, like I intend to make sure the hotels do,
:40:13. > :40:19.what would be wrong of seeing that was a requirement? I think that is a
:40:20. > :40:26.violation of privacy for these users. I think Airbnb has been quite
:40:27. > :40:31.straightforward. Recently, in the US, they created... Why should it be
:40:32. > :40:36.so secret? If anyone... Everyone is playing by the rules, then why not?
:40:37. > :40:41.They are business and they're trying to do what is in the best interest
:40:42. > :40:45.of the users. There is a mass movement of hosts, advocating to be
:40:46. > :40:50.part of everything, they like to participate in this sort of
:40:51. > :40:56.exchange. To finish, Ufi Ibrihim, in terms of the effect on hotels, how
:40:57. > :40:59.big an effect is this having? Probably Airbnb is bringing in more
:41:00. > :41:02.customers rather than stealing business? On one hand, it is a good
:41:03. > :41:06.thing but where we have professional landlords operating these hotels and
:41:07. > :41:10.not paying taxes, the sharing economy has created a hidden
:41:11. > :41:16.economy, which is unfortunate for UK plc. And the public safety issue, as
:41:17. > :41:20.well as the issue... But how big a deal is at? 10% of the hotels'
:41:21. > :41:26.business? Very difficult to tell at the moment because we have very
:41:27. > :41:27.little data. Everything is hidden by the sharing economy. Thank you both
:41:28. > :41:27.very much. But we learned today that,
:41:28. > :41:31.embarrassed by public pressure from the Chinese dissident artist
:41:32. > :41:36.Ai Weiwei, Lego ended their policy of refusing to bulk sell
:41:37. > :41:39.their product in cases where the end So, in the interests of balance,
:41:40. > :41:45.we leave you with the the work of cult YouTube animator Dino5500,
:41:46. > :41:50.whose rather disturbing Lego remembrance of the Battle
:41:51. > :41:52.of Stalingrad slightly suggests the company's sensitivities might
:41:53. > :41:55.sometimes be well-founded.