:00:07. > :00:10.Tonight, the Chancellor tells Newsnight that there can be NO
:00:11. > :00:20.This is the vote. There is no second vote. This is the vote, this is the
:00:21. > :00:30.crucial decision of our lifetime. We sit down
:00:31. > :00:36.with him in Berlin to discuss how the negotiations are going,
:00:37. > :00:37.and what it means for Britain. Sparkling diamonds, they are giving
:00:38. > :00:45.Hatton Garden sleepless nights! The nearest thing to an Ealing
:00:46. > :00:45.comedy that real crime gets. Three men are convicted
:00:46. > :00:47.for the Hatton Garden heist - what it is about jewellery
:00:48. > :00:49.theft that makes it such And we talk to Juliet Stevenson
:00:50. > :01:15.about her friend and co-star The Chancellor has told Newsnight
:01:16. > :01:16.there can be no second vote on Europe and called
:01:17. > :01:19.on the British people to focus on what he calls a 'once
:01:20. > :01:21.in a lifetime decision'. His comments are being interpreted
:01:22. > :01:26.as a direct response to some campaigning on the Leave side -
:01:27. > :01:27.who had floated the idea - behind the scenes -
:01:28. > :01:29.of having two referendums - so that people would feel freer
:01:30. > :01:34.to vote to leave if it meant Britain then having another chance
:01:35. > :01:35.at negotiating a BETTER deal - an idea the Chancellor
:01:36. > :01:38.was quick to scupper today. George Osborne also suggested that
:01:39. > :01:40.in key EU member states a consensus was emerging that Britain had made
:01:41. > :01:44.a perfectly reasonable case for change which would
:01:45. > :01:45.improve not just the UK - Whilst talk was of renegotiation
:01:46. > :01:54.he also staked his claim The next Conservative manifesto
:01:55. > :02:05.in 2015, will ask for a mandate from the British people
:02:06. > :02:14.for a Conservative government to negotiate
:02:15. > :02:14.a new settlement with our European And with that the Prime Minister let
:02:15. > :02:23.the blue touchpaper for the big It was perhaps no surprise
:02:24. > :02:27.that he appointed his long-term ally, George Osborne,
:02:28. > :02:32.alongside the Foreign Secretary, And, over the past few
:02:33. > :02:35.months in a flurry of summits and meetings,
:02:36. > :02:42.Britain's demands have fallen One, sorting out the relationship
:02:43. > :02:45.between euro members Two boosting competitiveness
:02:46. > :02:48.and reducing red Three protecting sovereignty
:02:49. > :02:57.by exempting Britain from ever close the union and bolstering
:02:58. > :02:58.national parliaments, and four, measures to restrain
:02:59. > :03:04.migration, such as limiting The Chancellor is in Berlin today,
:03:05. > :03:13.continuing the arguments on all that with the German and French
:03:14. > :03:13.finance ministers. Now obviously migration has
:03:14. > :03:14.caused some friction And it is that that has attracted
:03:15. > :03:21.most public attention. But don't let it detract
:03:22. > :03:22.from the things going on in the renegotiation,
:03:23. > :03:24.in particular, one way of looking is as a ginormous U-turn
:03:25. > :03:30.in British foreign policy. You see, for years,
:03:31. > :03:34.the mantra has been, we have to cling on to
:03:35. > :03:38.the idea of one Europe, Britain in that Europe,
:03:39. > :03:39.sitting at the top table alongside John Major talked of Britain
:03:40. > :03:42.being at the heart of I want us to be where we belong,
:03:43. > :03:49.at the very heart of Europe. Tony Blair referred
:03:50. > :03:51.to Britain as full players I believe we in Britain should start
:03:52. > :03:58.to have a little more confidence in our ability to shape
:03:59. > :04:02.arguments, have influence, play our part in Europe,
:04:03. > :04:08.without constantly worrying that Europe will turn
:04:09. > :04:15.into a conspiracy against Britain. So the renegotiation
:04:16. > :04:15.wraps all that up. You might even call
:04:16. > :04:23.it a tear-jerker. Because what it tries to do
:04:24. > :04:26.is put into writing, Europe, codifying the relationship
:04:27. > :04:34.between members of the euro Britain still in the EU,
:04:35. > :04:40.but not at its heart. One stop on his brief trip to Berlin
:04:41. > :04:50.to was a trendy office space for business start-ups,
:04:51. > :04:58.a tour with the French economy minister.
:04:59. > :05:07.And there he sat down. And there he sat down with me.
:05:08. > :05:12.Chancellor, many people think of the renegotiation is just for show.
:05:13. > :05:17.People who support the efforts you are making, what do you see in it
:05:18. > :05:21.that is important? There are some people in Britain who definitely
:05:22. > :05:26.want to leave Europe and others want to remain. I think the majority want
:05:27. > :05:30.to stay in a reformed European Union and that is why this negotiation
:05:31. > :05:35.matters because it offers the chance of a new settlement between Britain
:05:36. > :05:38.and Europe where we are not part of of a new settlement between Britain
:05:39. > :05:43.ever closer union, with the Eurozone cannot impose changes on us,
:05:44. > :05:45.ever closer union, with the Eurozone need consent. If we achieve that
:05:46. > :05:47.settlement they will have finally put at ease that often fractious
:05:48. > :05:52.relationship between Britain and put at ease that often fractious
:05:53. > :05:54.Europe. Give me a practical example. put at ease that often fractious
:05:55. > :06:00.Let's hold migration aside put at ease that often fractious
:06:01. > :06:02.difference it makes. Welcoming put at ease that often fractious
:06:03. > :06:08.is one practical example. Just put at ease that often fractious
:06:09. > :06:09.before the summit the Eurozone tried to land Britain with the bill for
:06:10. > :06:18.the Greek bailout. That would have had an impact on British taxpayers.
:06:19. > :06:18.the Greek bailout. That would have because of agreements we had already
:06:19. > :06:26.reached at a political level but it was a close run thing. We need
:06:27. > :06:27.permanent changes so that British taxpayers do not bail and European
:06:28. > :06:29.countries. Another example, some businesses were told they could not
:06:30. > :06:31.locate in Britain because it businesses were told they could not
:06:32. > :06:36.part of the Eurozone. businesses were told they could not
:06:37. > :06:38.challenged that. But we want to enshrine it in the
:06:39. > :06:45.challenged that. But we want to just enshrine it in the rules of the
:06:46. > :06:45.challenged that. But we want to European Union but of a safety
:06:46. > :06:50.mechanism that enables us to enforce those rules. You are saying that
:06:51. > :06:54.this marks a significant rewriting of the relationship between members
:06:55. > :06:59.and nonmembers of the euro, for example? For me, as the finance
:07:00. > :07:04.minister, at least the most important part of what we are trying
:07:05. > :07:07.to achieve is ensuring that Britain can operate alongside Eurozone that
:07:08. > :07:13.is integrating and creating ever closer political and economic and
:07:14. > :07:14.financial union, because Britain doesn't want to be part of that and
:07:15. > :07:15.I don't want Britain doesn't want to be part of that and
:07:16. > :07:21.choose, as some would say, between doesn't want to be part of that and
:07:22. > :07:24.joining a single currency, something we never want to do, and leaving the
:07:25. > :07:29.European Union. You know how these we never want to do, and leaving the
:07:30. > :07:34.negotiations are going, have you made up your mind on how you will
:07:35. > :07:38.vote in the referendum? What I want to do is achieve a successful
:07:39. > :07:42.renegotiation, that is one thing I want to do in Berlin. But we can
:07:43. > :07:47.achieve that we can recommend to the British people that we can stay
:07:48. > :07:49.achieve that we can recommend to the this reformed European Union. Until
:07:50. > :07:57.the conclusion of that renegotiation, we rule nothing out.
:07:58. > :08:02.So you, George Osborne, really could actually recommend to the British
:08:03. > :08:08.people that we the European Union? As I say, we rule nothing out.
:08:09. > :08:11.Accent I don't go into these things, David Cameron is not going to these
:08:12. > :08:17.things, my Cabinet colleagues do not go into these things thinking that
:08:18. > :08:20.we will fail. We watched as exceed in these negotiations. Here in
:08:21. > :08:26.Berlin just weeks before a crucial European Council when we will make
:08:27. > :08:29.these decisions, I am pretty optimistic. We can see the central
:08:30. > :08:36.pieces of the deal falling into place. We will achieve a more
:08:37. > :08:39.competitive Europe, make sure we will not be part of ever closer
:08:40. > :08:44.union. We will be able to secure our rights as a country not part of the
:08:45. > :08:48.euro and I think we will be able to deal with the abuse of free movement
:08:49. > :08:54.and people travelling just to claim welfare benefits. Achieve those
:08:55. > :08:55.things and you are dealing with many of the major concerns people have
:08:56. > :09:04.about the status quo in Europe. A big step forward. Is the Treasury
:09:05. > :09:11.planning contingencies for bricks at -- Brexit? This is where the
:09:12. > :09:15.resources of the Treasury are deployed... Six months from
:09:16. > :09:19.negotiating an exit, you are open-minded about whether we will
:09:20. > :09:26.stay in or go out and you are not prepared for it! As I say, our
:09:27. > :09:29.efforts on making sure that we achieve a successful renegotiation.
:09:30. > :09:35.And I see, not just in Germany but in France, in other key states,
:09:36. > :09:42.consensus emerging that Britain has made a reasonable case for change,
:09:43. > :09:44.and this new settlement is not only better for Britain but potentially
:09:45. > :09:51.better for the rest of Europe as well. I am optimistic. One of the
:09:52. > :09:56.reasons we got this far is because a lot of hard work has been done, not
:09:57. > :10:01.just by the politicians but by civil servants, to achieve it. In the
:10:02. > :10:08.interests of plain speaking and clarity, most people know that you
:10:09. > :10:09.support EU membership and you will be optimistic that you will be
:10:10. > :10:13.supporting it because the renegotiation is going well enough
:10:14. > :10:19.for us to stay in. You would not defer from what I have just said is
:10:20. > :10:25.a summary of your position? I will put my way. I hope to be able to
:10:26. > :10:28.recommend that we should stay in a reformed European Union. I came into
:10:29. > :10:33.the House of Commons in 2001, I'm a Eurosceptic like many of my
:10:34. > :10:34.conservative colleagues because I'm Eurosceptic like many of my
:10:35. > :10:36.concerned about some of the things that happened in the European Union.
:10:37. > :10:43.That's why I want to make this changes... Let's talk about seeking
:10:44. > :10:50.a position where we can achieve this changes. Then we can have the best
:10:51. > :10:57.of both Wells, we can be in the European Union, yet not run by it.
:10:58. > :11:04.To use an old, but apt slogan. Let's talk about something that matters
:11:05. > :11:06.more on the continent and possibly more to the people of Britain, which
:11:07. > :11:12.is migration, refugees, flows of people. David Cameron implied that
:11:13. > :11:13.is migration, refugees, flows of for Europeans to come to Britain
:11:14. > :11:16.they would need a job. Then he implied that if they were there for
:11:17. > :11:21.six months without a job they would have to go home. It seems that all
:11:22. > :11:25.of that has been dumped and we have a much watered-down objective in
:11:26. > :11:27.of that has been dumped and we have terms of the migration of objective
:11:28. > :11:32.and renegotiation. Is that right? The objective that we are seeking is
:11:33. > :11:37.the one we put in our manifesto that button voted on last year. That is,
:11:38. > :11:42.you cannot abuse the free movement of people just to come to our
:11:43. > :11:46.country and claim benefits. And we need to address this... It has been
:11:47. > :11:51.watered down from what the prime ministers said in 2014. I don't
:11:52. > :11:57.think that's true. David Cameron, in a speech at Bloomberg, said we had
:11:58. > :12:03.to address the abuse of free movement. Benchmark one Commons
:12:04. > :12:06.select committee was told, on a specific proposal of curbing
:12:07. > :12:13.benefits, he said it would not have much impact, do you agree? I don't,
:12:14. > :12:19.actually. Budget have you looked at the impact that it will have? The
:12:20. > :12:23.work that has been done, including by bodies like independent Europe,
:12:24. > :12:28.respected think tank, is that this would help reduce the flow of
:12:29. > :12:37.migration to the UK. Paige will it get it down? Do you seek European
:12:38. > :12:40.migration coming down, post renegotiation? If you remove the
:12:41. > :12:47.unnatural drawer of our welfare system, you will be able to reduce
:12:48. > :12:51.it... Down to 10s of thousands, the overarching objective of this
:12:52. > :13:01.government? It will contribute to it. Has 10s of thousands will
:13:02. > :13:05.include migration from non-European countries so we will take measures
:13:06. > :13:09.to make sure that that is not abused either. Many people have said you
:13:10. > :13:16.have been clever with the living wage proposal, raising it to ?9 or
:13:17. > :13:19.more by the end of parliament. If that helps British workers it will
:13:20. > :13:26.be an enormous drawer to Polish or central European workers, won't it?
:13:27. > :13:30.What we want our migrants who make a big contribution to our
:13:31. > :13:33.What we want our migrants who make a paid their taxes, and that is a good
:13:34. > :13:37.thing for our country but we want that migration to be controlled and
:13:38. > :13:45.we don't want our migration system to be abused. OK if they come for
:13:46. > :13:50.the minimum wage, as long as they do not come for benefits. Using to be
:13:51. > :14:01.saying, yes if they are working, no if it is benefits. I am not saying
:14:02. > :14:05.that migration is a bad thing per se but and must be controlled. On this
:14:06. > :14:13.issue of borders which will clearly be a big part of the campaign, Alan
:14:14. > :14:15.Johnson, on this programme last might, said that if we leave, you
:14:16. > :14:19.will not get your borders back. Any plausible scenario, he said, about a
:14:20. > :14:24.new relationship with Europe, we will, like Norway and Switzerland,
:14:25. > :14:29.maintain free movement of people. Is that your view? If we vote out when
:14:30. > :14:35.the referendum comes, we will probably end up with free movement
:14:36. > :14:43.anyway? I agree with Alan that if you look at the other models offered
:14:44. > :14:44.like Norway and Switzerland and the like, there are open borders in the
:14:45. > :14:50.sense that this is part of the deal that they had to sign up to. I would
:14:51. > :14:54.say Britain has the best of both worlds. The reason why we don't have
:14:55. > :14:59.won a million refugees flowing in, in the way that Germany has had, is
:15:00. > :15:03.precisely because we are in control of our borders. Benchmark will we
:15:04. > :15:12.have a border or not after the referendum? Will we have free
:15:13. > :15:12.movement, this is a basic question and we don't seem to have a clear
:15:13. > :15:19.answer to it. We have a border today because
:15:20. > :15:26.Britain is not part of Schengen from a -- the free movement. We are not
:15:27. > :15:30.part of the single currency. You raise a perfectly good question,
:15:31. > :15:34.which is, if it comes to the referendum, and there are people
:15:35. > :15:39.advocating that we leave in that referendum, they will have to answer
:15:40. > :15:42.the question, what is the alternative, are we going to have
:15:43. > :15:46.free movement of people, are we going to have to pay into the
:15:47. > :15:50.European budget to have access to their market anyway, will we have
:15:51. > :15:51.European budget to have access to sign up to the rules even if we
:15:52. > :15:54.don't have a vote on those rules, these are all the things that
:15:55. > :16:00.countries like Norway face today. And they will be good questions to
:16:01. > :16:10.put giving a referendum campaign. Do you think a referendum will settle
:16:11. > :16:12.it? I think it will, for at least a generation, for my lifetime. Some
:16:13. > :16:18.people talked about a second referendum. This is the vote. There
:16:19. > :16:28.is no second vote. This is the crucial decision of our lifetimes.
:16:29. > :16:35.Anyone who votes out on the assumption a year or two later you
:16:36. > :16:39.can have another vote to go back in is being unrealistic. It is
:16:40. > :16:45.important British people focus on the fact this is a
:16:46. > :16:51.once-in-a-lifetime decision. Last one, you are going around capitals
:16:52. > :16:57.of Europe and they are worried about migration, terrorism, Paris events,
:16:58. > :17:04.ten killed in Turkey. Do they not look at you and think they have
:17:05. > :17:07.bigger things to worry about? Talking to Germans here. Businesses,
:17:08. > :17:11.some of the German people and the politicians, they understand many of
:17:12. > :17:17.Britain's frustrations and share some of them. They want Europe to
:17:18. > :17:21.succeed and create jobs and growth and offer security, let's achieve
:17:22. > :17:22.the reforms and have that settlement so we can vote to remain in that
:17:23. > :17:24.reformed Europe. It was like the plot
:17:25. > :17:27.of an Ealing comedy. A gang of ageing criminals,
:17:28. > :17:35.with bus passes and sleeping bags, pull off a ?14 million raid on safe
:17:36. > :17:35.deposit boxes in Hatton Garden - astonishing Scotland Yard,
:17:36. > :17:36.and perhaps themselves, too. Three of them convicted
:17:37. > :17:40.at Woolwich Crown Court of involvement in the country's
:17:41. > :17:47.biggest burglary. Of course, no crime is victimless,
:17:48. > :17:54.and much of the money and jewellery But no one was hurt in the raid,
:17:55. > :18:00.and for romantics of a certain Sparkling diamonds, their value
:18:01. > :18:05.running into millions, are giving Hatton Garden
:18:06. > :18:13.sleepless nights. Willie Sutton, the most famous
:18:14. > :18:17.American bank robber, they asked why he robbed banks
:18:18. > :18:20.and he said, because that is where Last Easter raiders got
:18:21. > :18:29.into the Hatton Garden vaults, lowered themselves down a lift shaft
:18:30. > :18:30.and used high power drills to access It was like a reboot
:18:31. > :18:39.of the Lavender Hill Mob, except this lot were
:18:40. > :18:41.like the Over The Hill Police say the gang who broke
:18:42. > :18:49.into a vault in Hatton Garden... They said the thieves
:18:50. > :18:56.were organised. There was a theory it had
:18:57. > :19:04.to be an international gang like the Pink Panther, this
:19:05. > :19:16.famous gang of robbers and thieves. That there was not enough British
:19:17. > :19:22.ingenuity left to carry it out, that we have two imports doctors and IT
:19:23. > :19:26.people and footballers and we have to import criminals, also. But the
:19:27. > :19:29.elite international cartel theory took a dent after the flying squad
:19:30. > :19:36.arrested a group of British criminals getting on in years. In
:19:37. > :19:45.fact they had a combined age of 500. A lot of them are having to go like
:19:46. > :19:46.this to hear the evidence. They have to to be excused periodically
:19:47. > :19:51.because they need to pay a visit. There is a lot of talk about hip
:19:52. > :19:57.replacements and bladder problems and so on. The firm included
:19:58. > :19:59.76-year-old Brian Reader, also known as the governor, who admitted his
:20:00. > :20:05.part in the job. He went as the governor, who admitted his
:20:06. > :20:09.burglary by bus with the Freedom pass and apparently got cold feet
:20:10. > :20:18.after the crooks fail to crack the vault on the first night. Kenny
:20:19. > :20:23.Collins, 75, admitted his involvement, he drove the getaway
:20:24. > :20:29.car and kept watch outside the vault but the court heard he fell asleep.
:20:30. > :20:35.Daniel Jones ex 60 almost the baby of the group. Police found a copy of
:20:36. > :20:40.forensics for dummies at his house. He took part in the theft. William
:20:41. > :20:44.Lincoln claimed he had been at Billingsgate Fish market at the
:20:45. > :20:52.time, but was convicted of his part in it. Noel Razor Smith has served
:20:53. > :20:58.time for armed robbery and for many years has gone straight as an author
:20:59. > :21:01.and journalist. Professional criminals are always after the big
:21:02. > :21:06.one and the big one is something that is a job you can undertake and
:21:07. > :21:10.retire and never go back to that is a job you can undertake and
:21:11. > :21:13.criminality or prison again, and this was their big one, which is why
:21:14. > :21:18.I'm surprised they messed it up so badly. Rule number one when you
:21:19. > :21:22.start out in this game, if you are going to the trouble of doing a job
:21:23. > :21:28.like that, do not have the gear around you afterwards. The number of
:21:29. > :21:35.people who can do this is very small and it is a matter of the flying
:21:36. > :21:37.squad looking at who is in or out, who is dead, who is abroad, and the
:21:38. > :21:46.list is small. If you are on the list, you will be contacted. As
:21:47. > :21:50.their dreams turn to dust the ageing ringleaders faced the prospect of
:21:51. > :21:54.spending their declining years inside. Daniel Jones confessed and
:21:55. > :22:00.told police he could lead them to his stash, under the headstone of
:22:01. > :22:03.told police he could lead them to one of his dear departed in a north
:22:04. > :22:08.London cemetery. Before that outing took place, officers came to the
:22:09. > :22:13.cemetery by themselves and under another headstone belonging to
:22:14. > :22:17.another member of Jones' extended family they found a second larger
:22:18. > :22:20.hall of loot, which Jones had strangely omitted to tell them
:22:21. > :22:29.about. When he was confronted about this, he said, oh, that, that was
:22:30. > :22:35.for my future use. To most professionals, giving back what you
:22:36. > :22:40.have stolen is anathema. You do not want to do the work, do the prison
:22:41. > :22:44.sentence and come back to nothing. You do not want to give back what
:22:45. > :22:49.you have stolen, a hard fact with criminality. Why do it and then give
:22:50. > :22:52.the money back? Putting a job together takes patience and money
:22:53. > :22:59.and skill. Today's criminals have not got that. They are the last of
:23:00. > :23:05.their kind. The dinosaurs of the criminal world and the last to be
:23:06. > :23:10.taken down. Police surveillance tapes captured the gang's hopeless
:23:11. > :23:15.bravado. Danny Jones, one of the guilty men, tells Terry Perkins,
:23:16. > :23:21.another of the guilty men, on this tape, well, at least, Terry, we can
:23:22. > :23:27.say we gave it one last go. I think it would make a good title for the
:23:28. > :23:31.film. You hear them talking about it is the biggest, expletive deleted,
:23:32. > :23:44.burglary in the expletive deleted world.
:23:45. > :23:50.He had a capacity to fell you with a look or lift
:23:51. > :23:52.you with a word, Emma Thompson said today.
:23:53. > :23:57.Paying tribute to her friend and co star, Alan Rickman.
:23:58. > :23:58.When his death was announced earlier it felt to many like a thump
:23:59. > :24:02.An actor whose powerful and commanding presence
:24:03. > :24:05.gave him a unique voice - and the adoration of millions -
:24:06. > :24:15.He reached film fame relatively late in life - but then his
:24:16. > :24:18.list of successes - Die Hard, Sense And Sensbility,
:24:19. > :24:20.the Sheriff of Nottingham in Robin Hood and Severus Snape
:24:21. > :24:23.in the Harry Potter films showed his range and the depth
:24:24. > :24:31.Juliet Stevenson played his partner in Truly Madly Deeply -
:24:32. > :24:36.an achingly moving film about loss and grief.
:24:37. > :24:39.She joins me, but first, a reminder of the scene
:24:40. > :24:44.in which he appears to her from beyond the grave.
:24:45. > :25:02.# A deep shade of blue is always there.
:25:03. > :25:06.# The sun ain't gonna shine any more.
:25:07. > :25:11.# The moon ain't going to rise in the skies.
:25:12. > :25:15.# The tears are always clouding your eyes.
:25:16. > :25:46.That film is unbearably poignant. Doubly more so today. Looking at it
:25:47. > :25:51.I am thinking it is a good representation of what he could do,
:25:52. > :25:57.which was basically everything. Make people cry, laugh, fall in love with
:25:58. > :26:02.him. Very sexy, delicious, surprising, challenging. He could do
:26:03. > :26:05.anything and you get a sense of his surprising, challenging. He could do
:26:06. > :26:09.range in that film. Those scenes were improvised? That scene was
:26:10. > :26:16.improvised because there is not much dialogue in it and it was the
:26:17. > :26:21.hardest scene to shoot. The great gift of making that film with him
:26:22. > :26:22.was it was clever casting by Anthony Minghella because we had known each
:26:23. > :26:28.other a long time and I Minghella because we had known each
:26:29. > :26:33.him like many people as a family member more than a friend, even. We
:26:34. > :26:38.had a lot of history and it played in well to the story of the film. He
:26:39. > :26:42.was inventive to work with, very creative, thinking all the time
:26:43. > :26:47.about the bigger picture. He had his eye on everything will stop what the
:26:48. > :26:51.camera was doing, what the design was. He thought very big and had
:26:52. > :26:56.many kinds of talent that could was. He thought very big and had
:26:57. > :26:59.address itself to all parts of the job will stop he had a lot to offer
:27:00. > :27:04.in every department will stop he was more than an act but an inspiration
:27:05. > :27:11.to everyone on the crew as I am sure he was on every group. The voice was
:27:12. > :27:17.hypnotic. Sometimes there was a look, as Emma Thompson said, one
:27:18. > :27:27.look, one word, and I broke, a glance. -- an eyebrow. He was the
:27:28. > :27:30.most economic person. He is looking down now saying, just think before
:27:31. > :27:35.you speak. He could make you roar with laughter with a couple of
:27:36. > :27:41.words. He could say something insightful with just one line.
:27:42. > :27:45.Astonishingly economic, but he had a laser beam accuracy about what
:27:46. > :27:55.needed to be said, whether it was funny, insightful, tricky,
:27:56. > :27:58.challenging. Is that from his stage structure that came before film? He
:27:59. > :28:03.was a theatre actor for a long time before he became a big movie star.
:28:04. > :28:09.He was a classical actor on stage and we met at the Royal Shakespeare
:28:10. > :28:15.Company. A lot of busted who were friends of him. He had an incredible
:28:16. > :28:23.technique. As for that capacity, he always have that. -- as a lot of us
:28:24. > :28:28.were. He was instinctive, intuitive. His judgments came from an amazing
:28:29. > :28:38.blend of the mind, intuition, hunch, observation. And great humanity. We
:28:39. > :28:43.think about the baddies that he relished playing, but also the
:28:44. > :28:47.uptight characters that gave so little away like the kernel in sense
:28:48. > :28:55.and sensibility, when it was so English and restrained. Which he was
:28:56. > :29:01.not in many ways. He did not come from the English upper class. I
:29:02. > :29:06.think he was genuinely a classless person. There was no hierarchy for
:29:07. > :29:10.his heart. He treated everybody with the same courtesy and generosity of
:29:11. > :29:17.spirit. That is one reason he is very loved. He would be as courteous
:29:18. > :29:22.to the driver, dresser, or the director of a movie and it is not
:29:23. > :29:37.sentimental to say that. He saw the possibilities in everybody. He was
:29:38. > :29:40.famously and and most generous. He would give people the courage to go
:29:41. > :29:47.in a direction, help young people find their path. Was there a scene
:29:48. > :29:55.or conversation or an exchange that lies in the heart of your
:29:56. > :30:00.relationship together? There are so many of those. I have just come from
:30:01. > :30:05.a house full of close friends and his wife, where everybody is
:30:06. > :30:11.a house full of close friends and stories. We feel we have lost our
:30:12. > :30:17.leader. Because he was who we look to for guidance. He was more than a
:30:18. > :30:20.close friend, he was a great light in our community. We all
:30:21. > :30:21.close friend, he was a great light have lost the steering wheel in our
:30:22. > :30:26.car. We will rumble along the have lost the steering wheel in our
:30:27. > :30:29.but not know quite which way to go for a while. I do not know if
:30:30. > :30:32.but not know quite which way to go pick out a single thing. When I
:30:33. > :30:37.played pick out a single thing. When I
:30:38. > :30:39.measure and had success with it, playing a virtuous, intelligent and
:30:40. > :30:41.forthright playing a virtuous, intelligent and
:30:42. > :30:46.see a is good, but now I think you should
:30:47. > :30:52.is good, but now I think you should play her as though she had bright
:30:53. > :30:56.red six inch heels. I thought, what do you mean? And then, I see what
:30:57. > :31:02.you mean. There needs to be sexuality in this character. He
:31:03. > :31:05.always pushed you in a surprising direction you may not have
:31:06. > :31:08.always pushed you in a surprising recognised, but he was almost
:31:09. > :31:12.invariably right. None of us who loved him really know how we will
:31:13. > :31:24.get along without him. Thank you so much.
:31:25. > :31:26.For eight long months, one of the unanswered questions
:31:27. > :31:29.of the general election is why the result took so many by surprise.
:31:30. > :31:31.Where, in other words, did the polling go wrong?
:31:32. > :31:34.Next week, we will see the findings of the official report into it.
:31:35. > :31:36.But today, leading psephologist John Curtice made his
:31:37. > :31:40.What emerges isn't rocket science, but a failure quite simply to talk
:31:41. > :31:43.One pollster who got the prediction right -
:31:44. > :31:55.And published it before the result came out
:31:56. > :31:59.He says that the problem was much bigger than that -
:32:00. > :32:01.that there was a failure to talk to the politically disengaged.
:32:02. > :32:05.To put it another way, you don't ask those who go to church
:32:06. > :32:09.You also ask those who only turn up at Christmas,
:32:10. > :32:15.last to's general election produced the most unexpected result in a
:32:16. > :32:18.generation. The opinion polls pointed to an incredibly close
:32:19. > :32:25.contest. Pundits, forecasters and politicians thought I hang
:32:26. > :32:29.Parliament was inevitable. They were all wrong. Before the election I
:32:30. > :32:34.uncovered a series of statistical patterns that suggested that things
:32:35. > :32:37.were not as they seemed. Looking at historical patterns, local
:32:38. > :32:41.elections, by-elections and what people thought of the leaders I was
:32:42. > :32:45.convinced that the headline numbers were wrong. But how were the opinion
:32:46. > :32:50.polls so far off? Politics in were wrong. But how were the opinion
:32:51. > :32:54.last Parliament was unusual. Two thirds of two ready ten Lib Dems
:32:55. > :32:56.abandon the party. The pollsters got back right. Although they thought
:32:57. > :33:02.more people would vote Labour than Tory. They were right in thinking
:33:03. > :33:05.that the vote share of Ukip would quadruple although wrong in thinking
:33:06. > :33:08.it would hurt the Tories much more than Labour. That is how the
:33:09. > :33:13.pollsters ended up in complying with than Labour. That is how the
:33:14. > :33:16.this result of 2015. After the election I dug into the results and
:33:17. > :33:21.found the Tories were gaining more votes from the Lib Dems than
:33:22. > :33:26.believed and Labour was losing more support to Ukip than indicated. The
:33:27. > :33:30.narrative around the changes in the British political landscape was
:33:31. > :33:38.wrong. Wax to Mark White? To measure public opinion, pollsters do not ask
:33:39. > :33:43.everyone. One sample of 1000 people can be enough to give an accurate
:33:44. > :33:47.estimate although it must be representative, or made
:33:48. > :33:51.representative. Pollsters, put more weight on the types of voter
:33:52. > :33:55.representative. Pollsters, put more they have too few of and less weight
:33:56. > :34:00.on people whose opinion they have too much of. This time it went
:34:01. > :34:04.wrong. The study conducted after every general election uses a
:34:05. > :34:08.different method. Unlike convention in polling where you would call 1000
:34:09. > :34:12.people and then wait them against that they looked like the general
:34:13. > :34:16.population we take addresses more less out of the hat and we went to
:34:17. > :34:19.those houses and interviewed the people who lived there. The end
:34:20. > :34:23.result is that first you get a sample that looks more like the
:34:24. > :34:28.general population without re-weighting. And secondly for
:34:29. > :34:33.political purposes the number of people who said they voted for each
:34:34. > :34:39.party looked almost the same as the election result and like most
:34:40. > :34:42.pre-election polls. My analysis suggested they ended up with too
:34:43. > :34:49.many political in gauge to people. Sampling was behind the mistake. --
:34:50. > :34:51.politically engaged people. The young respondents were not
:34:52. > :34:58.representative of their age group. As if they were putting too much
:34:59. > :35:01.weight on Twitter users with a political axe to grind. People voted
:35:02. > :35:05.for one the coalition parties in 2010 and switching to an opposition
:35:06. > :35:10.party were overrepresented. Those who voted Tory in 2010 and stayed
:35:11. > :35:16.loyal in 2015 were under-represented. In simple terms
:35:17. > :35:22.we'd need more people who do not engage with politics. Or don't vote.
:35:23. > :35:30.We overestimated the turnout. We will want to do a better job on that
:35:31. > :35:34.next time. The huge challenge will be polling for Britain's EU
:35:35. > :35:39.membership referendum, the electorate will vote across party
:35:40. > :35:42.lines making weighting method is less effective than before, which
:35:43. > :35:47.places an even greater premium on getting a representative sample.
:35:48. > :35:50.Pollsters have been examining political activity, browsing habits
:35:51. > :35:55.and even whether they watch Newsnight. If they are going to get
:35:56. > :36:01.this right pollsters need to work towards more representative samples.
:36:02. > :36:03.One of the intere Lunch Mac sting things is not
:36:04. > :36:10.result, but what effect it had on the election result as a whole.
:36:11. > :36:13.Tom Baldwin worked for Ed Miliband until he lost the election.
:36:14. > :36:14.Rosie Campbell, from Birkbeck University,
:36:15. > :36:15.has research interests in voting behaviour
:36:16. > :36:28.Tom, looking back, what did it change? I think it made both
:36:29. > :36:32.campaigns more risk averse. People were talking about it being a very
:36:33. > :36:41.close campaign and a lot was at stake. And it changed the end of the
:36:42. > :36:41.campaigns. In those final two weeks, all the news was about the risk of a
:36:42. > :36:45.campaigns. In those final two weeks, Labour government propped up by the
:36:46. > :36:50.SNP. The BBC was particularly obsessed by this story. We could not
:36:51. > :36:57.get our 's story, the risk of a Tory second term, a Tory majority, up at
:36:58. > :37:00.all. I think that changed the campaign and might even have had
:37:01. > :37:04.some influence on the result. If the opinion polls had been accurate you
:37:05. > :37:06.would have had a final stage of the campaign where people would have
:37:07. > :37:15.been looking at a Tory majority government. Were people scared with
:37:16. > :37:16.whatever they thought was going to be the result? That is the only way
:37:17. > :37:24.you will get people to vote against it. Certainly you must talks if I go
:37:25. > :37:27.opponents. The Tories were very successful at talks if eyeing us. We
:37:28. > :37:34.were raising legitimate points about what would happen to the tax credits
:37:35. > :37:39.and the NHS. But got no airtime in the final weeks. The contrast with
:37:40. > :37:43.2010 when everyone expected a Tory majority and Gordon Brown pulled
:37:44. > :37:47.back a bit of the end because people were talking about Tory majority
:37:48. > :37:53.government, that did not happen this time. Rosie, the problem is that if
:37:54. > :37:59.they get people who are not politically engaged, if pollsters
:38:00. > :38:02.keep going to people who are offering good opinions, that cements
:38:03. > :38:05.the problem. Some of it is about statistical literacy. We need to
:38:06. > :38:11.know what is a good-quality pole and what is not. And actually the
:38:12. > :38:16.high-quality darter discussed in the video, they make between six and
:38:17. > :38:20.nine attempts to reach the same individual, whereas some of the
:38:21. > :38:26.pollsters are making one attempt. That costs money. It has been an
:38:27. > :38:35.investment in resources. Who was not spending that? Nobody apart from one
:38:36. > :38:40.server is being able to put in that money and effort, so it's a plug for
:38:41. > :38:45.social research, to understand what the electorate once you must invest
:38:46. > :38:51.in high-quality surveys. While doing your own internal survey was there
:38:52. > :38:54.not a sense from you, from the MPs, from politicians, we always hear
:38:55. > :39:00.about the doorstep, does no one say anything helpful on the doorstep? I
:39:01. > :39:05.think everyone got this wrong, the pundits, the politicians, the
:39:06. > :39:10.pollsters. You are the party so innocents you know if someone likes
:39:11. > :39:18.you. One thing that is true is come in every election I can remember,
:39:19. > :39:21.including mine and seven, 2001, 2005, with the exception of 2010,
:39:22. > :39:26.the Labour vote has been slightly overestimated in the opinion polls.
:39:27. > :39:29.That is why a lot of us were a little sceptical about whether we
:39:30. > :39:35.would win a majority will be the biggest party. Very sceptical.
:39:36. > :39:41.Whether opinion polls affect the way that the media covered the campaign
:39:42. > :39:44.and the fact that perceptions, that is the big question. Interesting
:39:45. > :39:49.when we talk about lazy Labour, is the big question. Interesting
:39:50. > :39:51.shy Tories, as if people were lying is the big question. Interesting
:39:52. > :39:56.on the phone, they didn't, if this was right. There is no evidence of
:39:57. > :40:01.lying. It looks as if it is a sample biased issue and Labour voters were
:40:02. > :40:05.easier to read so if you made one attempt to contact the body you will
:40:06. > :40:08.more likely to reach a Labour voter. The young people either on the phone
:40:09. > :40:12.or the Internet were the kind of young people who are interested in
:40:13. > :40:17.politics, a rare breed, and they are more likely to vote Labour. And
:40:18. > :40:22.there's something else about Labour voters, they seem to be more readily
:40:23. > :40:27.available. Tom, if you were doing it again now, knowing how the polls
:40:28. > :40:38.were skewered, what would you have done differently in those last few
:40:39. > :40:44.weeks? No Ed Stone, more focus on travel? What would you have told Ed
:40:45. > :40:48.Miliband to do? Is a lesson to everyone. Pollsters and parties.
:40:49. > :40:55.Opinion polls should not be the basis, the frame on which campaigns
:40:56. > :41:00.run. There were 700 of them last year. It was driving a lot of what
:41:01. > :41:05.we were doing, a lot of of the media were doing. We were not really
:41:06. > :41:10.having a debate about different programmes of government, it was a
:41:11. > :41:15.gigantic process story, what happens if Labour are propped up by the SNP.
:41:16. > :41:19.That wasn't doing the electorate any favours. It wasn't allowing them to
:41:20. > :41:23.make a rational choice about the options available. Would there have
:41:24. > :41:29.been a different policy wore different language used by Labour,
:41:30. > :41:30.knowing what you know now? We would have talked much more about the
:41:31. > :41:35.prospect of a Tory majority government and what it would mean.
:41:36. > :41:46.What does this mean, going ahead, we have a year
:41:47. > :41:50.full of elections now, not least the EU referendum. Does this mean we
:41:51. > :41:53.don't rely on pollsters, or we have collective amnesiac and go back in?
:41:54. > :41:56.I think what we should do is treat opinion polls with caution. The
:41:57. > :42:01.chances of collective amnesiac are high because copy will be needed for
:42:02. > :42:06.newspapers so there will be polls, although I think the commentators
:42:07. > :42:12.will take them with a pinch of salt. I am sceptical about the polling
:42:13. > :42:14.industry funding the silver bullet that will solve its problems. Labour
:42:15. > :42:18.has a credibility problem and I think the polling industry does as
:42:19. > :42:23.well. Finding out you did not reach in of Tory voters is like us saying
:42:24. > :42:34.that we did not rich enough Tory ones! Thank you both. I am afraid
:42:35. > :42:35.that is always have time for tonight, but we will be back