:00:07. > :00:25.This is really not anywhere near what I had hoped. Even if the full
:00:26. > :00:31.baskets at the UN were res lurkts clear, and what we were asking for
:00:32. > :00:34.it might be a step in the right direction, but it isn't that.
:00:35. > :00:36.Mr Cameron talks up his renegotiation while his party
:00:37. > :00:39.Perhaps it was never going to change people's minds
:00:40. > :00:43.We'll work out what has and what has not been achieved.
:00:44. > :00:45.And the Europe Minister does his best to sell
:00:46. > :00:53.After a tie to the last percentage point between Hillary Clinton and
:00:54. > :00:56.Bernie Sanders we look at what's happening on the left of American
:00:57. > :01:01.politics Up till now it's been
:01:02. > :01:04.spread by mosquitoes. Tonight, reports of the first
:01:05. > :01:06.confirmed US case transmitted So, a draft deal with the EU
:01:07. > :01:16.has been published. We've spent a long time
:01:17. > :01:26.getting here, but have about getting this
:01:27. > :01:32.relationship right. I don't believe leaving the EU
:01:33. > :01:35.would be best for Britain, but nor do I believe that voting
:01:36. > :01:39.to preserve the exact status quo We will give the British people
:01:40. > :01:44.a referendum with a very simple To stay in the European Union
:01:45. > :01:51.on these new terms or to We are saying the Conservatives
:01:52. > :02:02.are the largest party. There will be ups and downs,
:02:03. > :02:05.you will hear one day this is possible, the next day
:02:06. > :02:09.something else is impossible. But one thing throughout
:02:10. > :02:17.all of this will be constant EU migrants should have a job offer
:02:18. > :02:24.before they come here. UK taxpayers will not
:02:25. > :02:27.support them if they don't. And once they are in work,
:02:28. > :02:30.they won't get benefits or social housing from Britain
:02:31. > :02:32.unless they have been I think strong, determined,
:02:33. > :02:38.patient negotiation has achieved Well, it is today that we saw
:02:39. > :02:49.the outline of the result Mr Cameron has certainly
:02:50. > :02:52.lowered his aspirations since 2013, when he embarked on the path
:02:53. > :02:55.to a referendum and made some lavish promises about what
:02:56. > :02:58.he might achieve. Predictably, people involved
:02:59. > :03:02.in officially campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU
:03:03. > :03:05.are enthusiastic about the package. A sign, they say, of how
:03:06. > :03:07.far our partners will bend Those against our membership
:03:08. > :03:13.dismiss it as derisory. But the funny thing is that even
:03:14. > :03:16.many EU supporters - people on Cameron's side -
:03:17. > :03:18.also dismiss it as far Do you want to make
:03:19. > :03:24.up your own mind? Today we got the skeleton
:03:25. > :03:32.of a deal from Brussels. So we know roughly what
:03:33. > :03:36.renegotiation will look like and that the referendum looks
:03:37. > :03:38.increasingly likely to fall on June Sometimes people say
:03:39. > :03:44.to me, if you weren't in the European Union,
:03:45. > :03:46.would you opt to join And today I can give
:03:47. > :03:49.a very clear answer. If I could get these terms
:03:50. > :03:53.for British membership, I sure would opt in to be a member
:03:54. > :03:57.of the European Union because these And they're different
:03:58. > :04:02.to what other countries have. Now the Prime Minister
:04:03. > :04:05.wants to campaign to remain within the European Union
:04:06. > :04:08.and so for him the renegotiation First of all it is
:04:09. > :04:16.changing the EU into For example through changes
:04:17. > :04:19.to migration rules. Secondly, though, it is
:04:20. > :04:21.demonstrating that Britain has influence that it can
:04:22. > :04:23.use to change the EU, that Europe isn't something
:04:24. > :04:25.that is just done to us. The problem for him,
:04:26. > :04:27.though, is that these changes have to be big enough
:04:28. > :04:33.to sell both of those ideas. The draft proposes that the Eurozone
:04:34. > :04:35.nations shouldn't be able So it has a mechanism
:04:36. > :04:40.to respect the competences, rights and obligations of member
:04:41. > :04:42.states whose currency They also say that treaty references
:04:43. > :04:48.to an ever closer union should not be used to support an extensive
:04:49. > :04:54.interpretation of the competences be used to support an extensive
:04:55. > :04:57.interpretation of the competencies If a bit more than half of EU
:04:58. > :05:02.Parliaments, in the jargon, 55% of the votes allocated
:05:03. > :05:04.to national parliaments, pass a vote against the measure,
:05:05. > :05:06.they can block European This expert from
:05:07. > :05:09.a think tank close to the Prime Minister thinks those
:05:10. > :05:11.provisions are significant, I think when it comes
:05:12. > :05:15.to the red card for national parliaments,
:05:16. > :05:17.that is more of a symbolic victory It is the first time that national
:05:18. > :05:34.parliaments have a binding assay It is the first time that national
:05:35. > :05:37.parliaments have a binding say But the threshold of 55% of national
:05:38. > :05:41.parliaments to activate the red card Now of course some people
:05:42. > :05:44.said to me, don't... So can the Prime Minister
:05:45. > :05:46.sell this to his Just kick over the table,
:05:47. > :05:49.stormed out of the room, and wait until they
:05:50. > :05:51.call you back in. Well, the PM has asked for something
:05:52. > :05:54.which to me was critical. Which is no ever closer
:05:55. > :05:56.union for Great Britain. The response in the
:05:57. > :05:58.document is pretty It says they understand
:05:59. > :06:02.that that is what we are asking for and when they get
:06:03. > :06:05.to any future treaty whoever is running the member states then,
:06:06. > :06:08.so not the people who were there today, will be deciding this,
:06:09. > :06:11.will have a look at it and see if they can include it
:06:12. > :06:13.in a future treaty. On immigration, they propose
:06:14. > :06:15.allowing bans of EU citizens who represent a genuine
:06:16. > :06:17.and serious threat. Even in the absence
:06:18. > :06:19.of a criminal conviction. They also propose an emergency brake
:06:20. > :06:22.on migration, to be used when there is an inflow of workers
:06:23. > :06:24.from other member states of an exceptional magnitude over
:06:25. > :06:27.an extended period of time. That would not be a ban on coming
:06:28. > :06:30.here, but new EU workers would not get full access to
:06:31. > :06:32.benefits for a bit. They would start with an initial,
:06:33. > :06:35.complete exclusion from them, but then get gradually increasing
:06:36. > :06:37.access to full benefit entitlements The paper also proposes trimming
:06:38. > :06:41.the children's benefits paid out to families where the
:06:42. > :06:44.child lives abroad. These migration proposals
:06:45. > :06:47.caused a bit of a problem Last year at the election
:06:48. > :06:51.he pledged that people who had been working here for fewer
:06:52. > :06:54.than four years shouldn't be He also pledged that people whose
:06:55. > :07:00.children are abroad shouldn't get So you can understand why some
:07:01. > :07:07.people will feel their expectations I think that is slightly
:07:08. > :07:22.unfair and people should recognise how
:07:23. > :07:24.far we have come. First of all the ability
:07:25. > :07:26.to distinguish between UK nationals and EU nationals who are first
:07:27. > :07:28.arriving and denied access to the welfare system
:07:29. > :07:31.for a period of time. And I think when it comes
:07:32. > :07:34.to the UK universal system, although it may not be a ban
:07:35. > :07:37.for four years outright, denying benefits for a certain
:07:38. > :07:40.period of time could change people's attitudes to whether they take
:07:41. > :07:43.the decision to come to the UK. The emergency brake
:07:44. > :07:44.in of itself is a It is the EU telling us
:07:45. > :07:50.when we might be allowed So you're driving a car,
:07:51. > :07:54.you can see a car crash at the head. You're not allowed to put
:07:55. > :07:57.your foot on the brake. But you're not allowed to hold
:07:58. > :08:00.the steering wheel either. So there are substantive
:08:01. > :08:02.changes in there but it is not what the Tory manifesto
:08:03. > :08:05.promised and it is not going to be in the bag until an EU meeting that
:08:06. > :08:09.ends on February the 19th. Earlier this evening I spoke
:08:10. > :08:11.to the Europe Minister, Now, the Prime Mininster said
:08:12. > :08:14.earlier, "hand on heart", he'd achieved what he said
:08:15. > :08:17.he would in the Tory party So, could Mr Lidington
:08:18. > :08:28.help clarify that? I asked whether the draft deal met
:08:29. > :08:34.the manifesto's commitment to require EU migrants to leave Britain
:08:35. > :08:38.if they hadn't found a job here in six months. It is already the
:08:39. > :08:42.position under European law that you are allowed to travel freely to work
:08:43. > :08:46.but you are not allowed to hang on if you have no prospect of work. So
:08:47. > :08:50.that's already a provision. If this is about making sure that we are
:08:51. > :08:54.able to deliver on that. But they'll be required to leave. So even if
:08:55. > :08:59.they've got their own resources, because they won't be Gesting
:09:00. > :09:04.benefits. They will be deported or give a notice... This is a matters
:09:05. > :09:08.for the Immigration Service's arrangements for dealing with people
:09:09. > :09:12.who've, who are here without a legal right to be here. Obviously if
:09:13. > :09:17.somebody has their own resources it is conceivable that they might
:09:18. > :09:22.qualify for residence under other aspects of the UK's immigration
:09:23. > :09:28.rules. It will have to be looked at case by case. We'll call that a
:09:29. > :09:33.score draw. The manifesto said if an EU migrant child is living abroad,
:09:34. > :09:37.then they should reach no child benefit. Has that been achieved? On
:09:38. > :09:43.the particular issue of child benefit the proposal that's in the
:09:44. > :09:47.papers is that child benefit should be paid indexed to the living
:09:48. > :09:55.standards of the country where the child is residing. It is a
:09:56. > :10:01.compromise. But on the other hand if one simply ended all child benefit
:10:02. > :10:06.payments, where the parent is living here child living abroad, there
:10:07. > :10:14.height be an incentive for them to bring their children with them. We
:10:15. > :10:18.think if that would be nailed down. It would restore fairness to the
:10:19. > :10:21.benefits system. And I think will make a difference in terms of
:10:22. > :10:24.welfare spend. I'm asking this, because the Prime Minister said hand
:10:25. > :10:30.on heart he had achieved the manifesto goal. He said, if you go
:10:31. > :10:33.back to look at what he said in its entirety, he said what we have is
:10:34. > :10:41.the basis for a good settlement. Burr there's a lot of work still to
:10:42. > :10:46.be done. He implied, in fact he said directly, if he got this deal, as
:10:47. > :10:50.long as this was delivered, he would be happy to join an EU if he weren't
:10:51. > :10:54.a member. So his position is he's happy with the deal or he isn't
:10:55. > :11:00.happy with the deal on the table? His position is this is a very good
:11:01. > :11:03.basis for a deal that delivers answers to things about which the
:11:04. > :11:07.British people have been most concerned. But as you will see, if
:11:08. > :11:11.you've gone through the text, there are elements in it still in square
:11:12. > :11:17.brackets and so on. There is still negotiation to be done. This is a
:11:18. > :11:21.deal that will require the agreement of all 27 Governments. I don't want
:11:22. > :11:27.to take, will the Prime Minister be happy if they gets this deal on
:11:28. > :11:33.child benefit? If we get that as part of the whole package, we think
:11:34. > :11:38.that would represent a reasonable compromise. We are looking at every
:11:39. > :11:41.aspect of this negotiation, because the different parts all hang
:11:42. > :11:45.together. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. I think you
:11:46. > :11:52.will find every Government in Europe is saying that. The manifesto said,
:11:53. > :11:57.we will insist that EU migrants to want to claim child benefit and tax
:11:58. > :12:01.credits must have lived here for a minimum of four years. Has that been
:12:02. > :12:07.achieved? Where we've got to today is a big advance on where we were.
:12:08. > :12:12.What we've got today is explicit recognition by the European
:12:13. > :12:18.institutions, first that in-work welfare systems can act as an
:12:19. > :12:23.artificial pull factor for migration into a particular country. Secondly,
:12:24. > :12:29.that individual countries should be entitled to do something about it,
:12:30. > :12:33.and there are drafts of a legal mechanism that would enable action
:12:34. > :12:37.to be taken. And third, the commission says, as part of today's
:12:38. > :12:40.set of document, that they believe that the United Kingdom would
:12:41. > :12:48.qualify to pull that so-called emergency brake now. And that, which
:12:49. > :12:50.is now on offer, written down in this Tusk memo, would be
:12:51. > :12:57.satisfactory for the British Government? You haven't achieved it
:12:58. > :13:00.yet... It is a working draft in a live negotiation. I understand
:13:01. > :13:05.you've got something, but I want to quote the manifesto. It says, this
:13:06. > :13:08.will be an absolute requirement in the renegotiation. Again I come back
:13:09. > :13:14.to the fact the Prime Minister said he's achieved what was written in
:13:15. > :13:18.the manifesto. Patently they choose whether we apply the emergency
:13:19. > :13:24.brake. If you look at what the Prime Minister said today, he said all
:13:25. > :13:28.along, this is a very good important step forward, but this is also a
:13:29. > :13:31.live negotiation. But you are hovering between that we are going
:13:32. > :13:37.to get more and that you are happy with what we've got. Which is it?
:13:38. > :13:42.Are we going to get more? Or is this a satisfactory deal? This is a good
:13:43. > :13:46.basis on which to move towards a deal at the next summit, but we are
:13:47. > :13:51.not there yet. So why did the Prime Minister today say, if I could get a
:13:52. > :13:54.deal like this, I would be enthusiastically campaigning to join
:13:55. > :14:02.the European Union if we weren't in it. If we do get a deal with all the
:14:03. > :14:05.Ts crossed and Is dotted, there are important elements in the draft
:14:06. > :14:09.which require further negotiation. But there's a difference between
:14:10. > :14:14.crossing a T and trying to renegotiate a point that's appeared
:14:15. > :14:18.to have been conceded, that ants Madge brake, but we are not going to
:14:19. > :14:25.get the requirement, which was there'll be no in-work benefits. The
:14:26. > :14:29.PM has been clear, go back to 204, when he addressed the issue of
:14:30. > :14:31.welfare and migration in detail. He said consistently that what he is
:14:32. > :14:44.about is getting the right outcome. What research has been done about
:14:45. > :14:48.the numbers coming in for the EU benefits system. We know from the
:14:49. > :15:01.Department of Work and Pensions figures that something like 40% of
:15:02. > :15:05.recently arrived migrants... I do not want to know how many claim
:15:06. > :15:10.benefits but how many come here as a result of those benefits being
:15:11. > :15:12.claimed. That is a different matter. Steve Nickell of the Office for
:15:13. > :15:17.Budget Responsibility used the phrase, not much, when asked by a
:15:18. > :15:25.parliamentary committee. I think we were speaking in a personal
:15:26. > :15:33.capacity, but when you look at the fact that somebody who comes to the
:15:34. > :15:40.UK by claiming in work benefits, is able to be better off taking a
:15:41. > :15:44.minimum wage unskilled job in this country, than by taking even a
:15:45. > :15:48.skilled job in some of the countries people are coming from, you can see
:15:49. > :15:54.that that system of access from day one to in work and of it makes us a
:15:55. > :16:00.more attractive location. Can you hand on heart, to coin a phrase,
:16:01. > :16:04.said that as a result of this migration from the European Union
:16:05. > :16:10.will go down? I'm very confident that if a deal of this kind goes
:16:11. > :16:15.through, and I repeat a lot of the detail has yet to be negotiated,
:16:16. > :16:19.then the incentives that are welfare system provides will be reduced and
:16:20. > :16:27.therefore people have less incentive to come to the UK. So it will go
:16:28. > :16:30.down. It will depend in part on what happens in their home countries, how
:16:31. > :16:37.good they are at creating jobs, how desperate people feel. So yes or no,
:16:38. > :16:42.we'll migration from the EU go down if we get away, that depends
:16:43. > :16:44.question what I'm saying it will reduce the pull factors
:16:45. > :16:52.significantly off the welfare system. But there's more than one
:16:53. > :16:55.motivating force when people choose both whether to leave their home
:16:56. > :16:59.country and which other country then they want to move to. They're
:17:00. > :17:08.looking at job prospects at home and they compare what we can offer. Even
:17:09. > :17:15.last month, December, the Prime Minister talked about this package
:17:16. > :17:19.as fundamental change. Do you as you stand and look at this now, really
:17:20. > :17:24.think this is a fundamental change in our relationship with the EU? It
:17:25. > :17:29.is pretty fundamental change not just in our relationship with the EU
:17:30. > :17:33.but the way the EU things about itself and intends to operate in the
:17:34. > :17:39.future. Are you now ready to vote to stay in? I'm very hopeful that after
:17:40. > :17:43.a successful deal I will campaign alongside the Prime Minister for
:17:44. > :17:48.continued membership of a reformed EU. David Cameron has got to remain
:17:49. > :17:52.open-minded because he is told, he told his ministers that they cannot
:17:53. > :17:58.campaign yet either because he wants to hold the Eurosceptics back until
:17:59. > :18:03.as close as possible to the referendum. Is that what is really
:18:04. > :18:10.going on? People like Chris Grayling would love to be let out of the
:18:11. > :18:15.traps. The entire government took office on a shared collective
:18:16. > :18:20.commitment to re-negotiate and then have a referendum. That is something
:18:21. > :18:24.that everyone signed up to. There are long-standing honourable
:18:25. > :18:29.differences of view in all political parties about whether ultimately
:18:30. > :18:33.membership of the EU for the UK is a good bad thing and that is why the
:18:34. > :18:36.Prime Ministers said in these exceptional circumstances when it
:18:37. > :18:39.comes referendum campaigning, and listers who had a long-standing
:18:40. > :18:41.position against EU membership would be free to campaign for that in
:18:42. > :18:44.their personal capacity. I'm guessing that the people
:18:45. > :18:48.who are not interested probably never made it past the first two
:18:49. > :18:50.minutes, to be frank. At times like this it's worth asking
:18:51. > :18:53.what the Tories' election-winning Focus on the important issues,
:18:54. > :18:58.and remember that emotion normally Is the renegotiation
:18:59. > :19:05.important, or emotional? We sent Lewis Goodall to test out
:19:06. > :19:25.the views of the public Clacton on Sea, the most Eurosceptic
:19:26. > :19:28.corner of England. If Donald Tusk letter can convince people hear it
:19:29. > :19:31.will convince them anywhere. So I got on my bike to bring this letter
:19:32. > :19:38.to the people. What will they make of David Cameron and his red cards,
:19:39. > :19:43.baskets and emergency brakes? Have you heard of the Prime Minister, he
:19:44. > :19:51.said he has a new deal in Europe? No. You have not heard about the
:19:52. > :19:56.emergency brake? Or the red card? No. So unlikely to make any
:19:57. > :20:01.difference to how you vote? We do not want more people over here.
:20:02. > :20:08.They're getting these people around and there is no work for them. As
:20:09. > :20:13.soon as they come here they will rock 'n' roll. We need to fully
:20:14. > :20:16.respect the current treaties including the principles of free
:20:17. > :20:23.movement and non-discrimination. So the proposal complies with the
:20:24. > :20:31.current rules. And in English? Your guess is as good as mine. I heard
:20:32. > :20:38.there is an emergency brake on workers and stuff like that. But in
:20:39. > :20:44.the EU we will get flooding people into the country anyway, more than
:20:45. > :20:48.are leaving. You have not heard about the Prime Minister and the new
:20:49. > :20:58.deal in Europe? But you will vote to leave anyway? Yes, sorry. What do
:20:59. > :21:09.you think about the EU, would you vote to stay or leave? To leave. No,
:21:10. > :21:16.to stay. Which? To stay? Oh, to leave!
:21:17. > :21:20.With this re-negotiation, David Cameron hoped to finally vanquished
:21:21. > :21:23.Tory Euro scepticism for a generation. He is convinced many of
:21:24. > :21:29.his MPs to come with them, getting him out of a very tight spot.
:21:30. > :21:34.Amongst the public for whom the details of sovereignty and emergency
:21:35. > :21:37.brakes are more obscure, his task is much harder. It may well be that
:21:38. > :21:42.their minds are made up one way or another, long ago.
:21:43. > :21:45.In the upper echelons of the Conservative Party there has
:21:46. > :21:51.Boris Johnson said he did not yet know the "quivering magnitude"
:21:52. > :21:54.of the deal, but sounded sceptical that it had achieved enough.
:21:55. > :21:57.Perhaps more significant were the words of Home Secretary Theresa
:21:58. > :22:03.She said the deal was "encouraging", which is very discouraging for those
:22:04. > :22:05.hoping she would lead the Leave campaign.
:22:06. > :22:08.If you're a Conservative MP, the best thing has been to pretend
:22:09. > :22:11.you're open minded about the EU, so that when you finally
:22:12. > :22:14.declare your view, you sound like you've been swayed by argument
:22:15. > :22:20.We have a Conservative MP with us now, who was open minded and now
:22:21. > :22:34.Good evening. What is your view as of now? I have been traditionally
:22:35. > :22:38.Eurosceptic said I would wait for the re-negotiation to make the
:22:39. > :22:42.decision. The deal I have seen today is not enough to convince me to vote
:22:43. > :22:47.to stay in the EU so I will be voting to leave. And you were kind
:22:48. > :22:53.of holding out until today so you have been swayed today. I think it
:22:54. > :22:56.is just not enough. The issue about migration has not been dealt with
:22:57. > :23:00.because we know that less than 30% of people who come from the EU are
:23:01. > :23:05.here to claim benefits, must come to work. With the living wage being
:23:06. > :23:07.introduced in the next few months that will encourage more people to
:23:08. > :23:13.come. We should welcome those skills that we need absolutely, I say that
:23:14. > :23:16.as a daughter of Irish immigrants who came to work, we need clear
:23:17. > :23:20.boundaries so the skills that we have too many off, we need to be
:23:21. > :23:25.able to say no. It has been obvious for quite a while but this was not
:23:26. > :23:32.going to get you what you wanted. I wonder why you held out until today.
:23:33. > :23:35.I was disappointed with the original requests in the letter to Donald
:23:36. > :23:40.Tusk but I said if anyone could get as a good deal it will be the Prime
:23:41. > :23:42.Minister. And it is this Conservative government and this
:23:43. > :23:46.Prime Ministers who got the referendum in the first place. I was
:23:47. > :23:49.optimistic if anyone could do it it would be the Prime Minister. But
:23:50. > :23:55.what I've seen today has not convinced me. He has let you down a
:23:56. > :23:59.bit. I think Europe has let us down. I have got to go back and face my
:24:00. > :24:02.constituents, by fishermen in New Haven, whether fisheries policy is
:24:03. > :24:08.decimating their business. I've got to go back and see my hairdressers
:24:09. > :24:12.when new EU regulations mean they have to have clients in the chair
:24:13. > :24:16.for longer because hairdryers are less powerful than they were.
:24:17. > :24:20.Furniture producers, copyright changes mean they will be out of
:24:21. > :24:26.business. You said you were always a sceptic but we will not find someone
:24:27. > :24:32.saying they saw you saying you were going to vote for our three weeks
:24:33. > :24:37.ago. I was Eurosceptic, I have been honest, but this is not the deal to
:24:38. > :24:41.convince me. You spoke about your voters but what about your
:24:42. > :24:45.colleagues on the backbenches of the Conservative Party, what has been
:24:46. > :24:48.their reaction today? Most of us have been keen to wait and see what
:24:49. > :24:52.the response is, people are nervous about what this means. Still some
:24:53. > :24:58.people want to wait and see the response from other EU nations
:24:59. > :25:03.before making a decision. I think this is a significant number of the
:25:04. > :25:07.new intake, we have just bought a general election and got our seats,
:25:08. > :25:11.we know what voters think in our constituency. We are going to go
:25:12. > :25:15.into referendum, you will now be on the opposite side of your party
:25:16. > :25:23.leader. Is that going to rip things apart or with you all be friendly
:25:24. > :25:28.other -- afterwards? I'm sure it will not do my long-term medical
:25:29. > :25:32.career any good but I have got to face my constituents at the end of
:25:33. > :25:36.the day and do what I feel is best for the country. My vote and your
:25:37. > :25:39.vote is no less important than every man and woman in this country. I do
:25:40. > :25:44.not get a bigger say in what will happen in our relationship with the
:25:45. > :25:45.EU, the referendum will decide that and the vote of the British public
:25:46. > :25:47.will count. Well, Britain is more
:25:48. > :25:49.important to Europe than Iowa Usually, except in an American
:25:50. > :25:53.election year, and the day Some pretty interesting
:25:54. > :26:11.results there. It is groundhog day today and for a
:26:12. > :26:14.while last night I imagine Hillary Clinton thought it was going to be
:26:15. > :26:19.2008 all over again when she lost the state that time to Barack Obama.
:26:20. > :26:23.The larger-than-life character of Donald Trump has dominated so much
:26:24. > :26:26.of the campaign Trail that for a time the Democrats did not seem to
:26:27. > :26:31.get a look in. But last night the drama was definitely all with them.
:26:32. > :26:35.A nail-biting finish with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and it
:26:36. > :26:40.came down to just three tenths of one percentage point, the closest
:26:41. > :26:45.ever in Democrat Caucus history. The caucus is a strange beast, this
:26:46. > :26:49.extraordinary result achieved not with voting booth or buttons but
:26:50. > :26:51.with paper and pens and the mobilisation of thousands of people
:26:52. > :26:55.right across the state who left their home on a freezing night to go
:26:56. > :27:02.and properly argue with their neighbours. We were lucky enough to
:27:03. > :27:03.watch history in the making. Get some coffee or something.
:27:04. > :27:10.Precinct three, Boone County, Mary and her husband Gary
:27:11. > :27:14.have opened up their farmhouse in rural Iowa for the night.
:27:15. > :27:22.There's camaraderie and occasionally, marital tension.
:27:23. > :27:24.Roxanne and Steve Gunderson arrived together, he went one way
:27:25. > :27:26.to the Clinton corner and she went to
:27:27. > :27:32.You have chats, arguments about this over the dinner table?
:27:33. > :27:50.Wait a minute, are you not listening to what the Democrat party
:27:51. > :27:56.They're already looking for somebody else.
:27:57. > :27:58.If he is the candidate, they're going to look
:27:59. > :28:06.This is done with pencil, paper and bodies that
:28:07. > :28:09.physically cross the floor when a mind is changed.
:28:10. > :28:23.So they are either uncommitted or O'Malley.
:28:24. > :28:25.The uncommitted, Dale, crosses the room
:28:26. > :28:38.I like a lot of what Bernie has to say, but I remember him from way
:28:39. > :28:42.back and I think that's probably why I may decide to go to Hillary more
:28:43. > :28:51.29 times the number of delegates, which is three...
:28:52. > :28:53.What they are choosing here is how many delegates
:28:54. > :28:58.The maths is complicated but the ratio is weighted in favour
:28:59. > :29:05.This ends with Hillary on two, Bernie on one.
:29:06. > :29:08.The highest number yes, the delegates.
:29:09. > :29:13.Oh my gosh, it is great to be here with all of you.
:29:14. > :29:20.I am so thrilled that I'm coming to New Hampshire after winning Iowa!
:29:21. > :29:25.What Iowa has begun tonight is a political revolution.
:29:26. > :29:35.The Clinton-Sanders contest was the closest in the history
:29:36. > :29:38.of the Democrat caucus in Iowa, a cigarette paper-thin margin
:29:39. > :29:45.which will make many see Bernie Sanders in a new light.
:29:46. > :29:48.The Vermont Senator who grew up in Brooklyn and calls himself
:29:49. > :29:53.socialist is now the unlikely hero of the left across America.
:29:54. > :29:54.Anti-big business, pro environment, and passionate
:29:55. > :30:04.Think Jeremy Corbyn with a New York absent.
:30:05. > :30:08.I think it is the sense of pulling apart that's happening on both sides
:30:09. > :30:10.of the political spectrum in America, where it feels
:30:11. > :30:13.like people are increasingly gravitating towards the extreme
:30:14. > :30:17.polls of the right and the left and the centre is hollowing out.
:30:18. > :30:20.For Democrats it is a return to the '60s and '70s-style
:30:21. > :30:22.radicalism, a rejection of the centrism and triangulation
:30:23. > :30:28.that both Clintons have always represented.
:30:29. > :30:31.And a desire to really be more muscular in their liberal socialist
:30:32. > :30:37.What he's doing is opening up a race that many felt had become
:30:38. > :30:43.Hillary Clinton seems unassailable, unstoppable.
:30:44. > :30:45.There are those in the party even who liked here who worried
:30:46. > :30:48.about a path to the nomination that looked unchallenged.
:30:49. > :30:50.The Clinton machine has been spooked by this.
:30:51. > :31:10.White vote, the activist vote and the young vote on the left. He
:31:11. > :31:15.won... This morning Clinton admitted she had to do better with new and
:31:16. > :31:21.younger voters. Bernie Sanders now calling for a release of the raw
:31:22. > :31:26.vote count in Iowa says his rise is a sign that voters want change. But
:31:27. > :31:30.they might be flirting with him at this stage, confident that Hillary
:31:31. > :31:35.will get the nomination, and seeings what it feels like to dip their toes
:31:36. > :31:40.into the icy waters of real radicalism. Let's examine some of
:31:41. > :31:54.those issues more deeply. Would you see that a.3% finish as a
:31:55. > :31:59.win for Bernie Sanders? A tie is as good as a win when you are the
:32:00. > :32:02.underdog the way he's been. This was Hillary Clinton's state to lose.
:32:03. > :32:04.Even though she didn't technically lose it
:32:05. > :32:13.He calls himself a socialist. What does that mean for people in
:32:14. > :32:19.America? Well, it is much more of an epithet than your viewers are
:32:20. > :32:21.accustomed to. He's been an independent Senator, not
:32:22. > :32:26.traditionally a part of the Democratic Party in Congress. Iowa
:32:27. > :32:30.Democrats are much more progressive, much more rebel than Democrats in
:32:31. > :32:36.the United States. This was a good state for him. A poll showed 43% of
:32:37. > :32:41.the Democratic voters here did use the term socialist. But historically
:32:42. > :32:46.that's been a fight word. You spent a lot of time in Des Moines gearing
:32:47. > :32:51.up for this. You suggested this was going to be like the Hunger Games.
:32:52. > :32:57.Yes, there were 10 republicans in the field, as the vote got close ter
:32:58. > :33:03.gloves came off, the attack ads were saturated on television. Candidates
:33:04. > :33:07.who had never engaged like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump started going after
:33:08. > :33:11.each other in very insulting ways. Last night showed how that came out.
:33:12. > :33:17.If you step back from the last month and asked people what they thought
:33:18. > :33:21.would happen in Iowa, they would probably have said Hillary would win
:33:22. > :33:29.and Ted Cruz would win. Does that mean all the fury and the polling
:33:30. > :33:33.has been for nothing? Ted Cruz got the evangelicals and Hillary the
:33:34. > :33:37.Democratic vote. Most of the money yesterday before the voting was on
:33:38. > :33:42.Donald Trump, who was having a surge in the polls, and on Hillary, who
:33:43. > :33:46.seemed to have a three or 4 point advantage. The results showed the
:33:47. > :33:50.vulnerability and the unpredictability and unreliability,
:33:51. > :33:56.excuse me, of polls these days. Dramatic results on both sides. If
:33:57. > :34:01.we take this forward now, looking at the Democrats race first of all,
:34:02. > :34:06.this idea that Bernie Sanders is fresh blood in the race, if you
:34:07. > :34:09.like. He is somebody that people haven't really seen before. I
:34:10. > :34:12.described it as people dipping their toes into radicalism for the first
:34:13. > :34:17.time. Do you think there is any chance he will see this through to
:34:18. > :34:24.the end? Or do you think the next primaries will end that? He has
:34:25. > :34:32.unleashed a rush of donations. He said the average donation he he has
:34:33. > :34:35.had is $27, and he has had is $27, and he's raised $27 million a
:34:36. > :34:41.quarter. He has the money, unless he loses anywhere. This is a very
:34:42. > :34:46.hospitable playing field, idealogically New Hampshire he will
:34:47. > :34:51.do well at. It is next door to his home state of Vermont, where he is
:34:52. > :34:55.ahead in the polls. The Democratic vote will move to the south.
:34:56. > :34:58.African-American voters support Hillary Clinton now strongly and
:34:59. > :35:04.he'll have to deal with that. If you looking to the republican race, many
:35:05. > :35:09.are saying the real winner is Marco Rubio. Explain why? Iowa was an
:35:10. > :35:15.expectation game. Rubin was stuck in the polls. He came in 23% last
:35:16. > :35:19.night. Anybody who is looking nor a real alternative to Trump or a Ted
:35:20. > :35:21.Cruz, a less Conservative alternative, wants to rally around
:35:22. > :35:26.or coalesce around alternative, wants to rally around
:35:27. > :35:30.Rubin is in a position to take that role. Thank you very much indeed.
:35:31. > :35:32.Rubin is in a position to take that The next race, the
:35:33. > :35:35.Rubin is in a position to take that test will be in
:35:36. > :35:39.Rubin is in a position to take that that, it is next to Vermont. He has
:35:40. > :35:43.a home state advantage there. Perhaps the eyes will be back on to
:35:44. > :35:49.the republican race then. If Donald Trump doesn't win in New Hampshire,
:35:50. > :35:50.people will start to ask whether he becomes that 2016 footnote too.
:35:51. > :35:56.Emily. Thank you. As if to remind us why Zika
:35:57. > :35:59.was declared a world health emergency yesterday,
:36:00. > :36:01.two pieces of news as to its spread A likely case of sexual
:36:02. > :36:08.transmission in Texas - a Dallas County resident who had
:36:09. > :36:11.sexual contact with someone who acquired the Zika infection
:36:12. > :36:12.while travelling abroad. And then, in Ireland,
:36:13. > :36:15.two cases have been in found in people who've had a history
:36:16. > :36:17.of travelling in affected areas. From Oxford, I'm joined
:36:18. > :36:19.by Professor Trudie Lang, principal investigator
:36:20. > :36:21.for the Nuffield Research Centre for prevention and treatment
:36:22. > :36:31.of diseases like Ebola. It is literally a week ago on this
:36:32. > :36:37.programme we were talking about a case of apparent transmission in
:36:38. > :36:41.2008. It seemed outlandish. What do we now know or don't know about
:36:42. > :36:45.sexual transmission? I don't think we are too much further forward than
:36:46. > :36:51.last week really. So this isn't unexamined. It is not particularly
:36:52. > :36:55.surprising. All we know is that there is this apparent transmission
:36:56. > :37:00.between somebody's returned from an infected country and has passed this
:37:01. > :37:04.on through sexual contact. It is not completely confirmed, as I
:37:05. > :37:08.understand, but for us it raises more questions than it answers. We
:37:09. > :37:14.are just adding to the list of research questions we need to tackle
:37:15. > :37:17.within this rapidly emerging and quiet
:37:18. > :37:21.research questions we need to tackle within this rapidly emerging and --
:37:22. > :37:24.quiet worrying suggestion. We got into bodily fluids last week, but
:37:25. > :37:28.there's a suggestion that saliva could be a route to transmission.
:37:29. > :37:34.We've had no reports of that and we need to make it really clear that as
:37:35. > :37:38.far as... With all the information we've got and evidence that we can
:37:39. > :37:43.draw together so far, it suggests that most of the transmission occurs
:37:44. > :37:49.from mosquito bites. We know it is present in semen but remember that
:37:50. > :37:53.most people don't have any symptoms. So presumably the person who came
:37:54. > :37:58.back from the affected country was unwell, which is why he went to be
:37:59. > :38:04.tested, presumably, for Zika, and he has passed it on. We don't know if
:38:05. > :38:10.you are not symptomatic, do you have virus in your fluids? And the
:38:11. > :38:14.question of whether it is in other fluids, it's unlikely. We were
:38:15. > :38:17.fairly confident that the route of transmission is on mosquito bites.
:38:18. > :38:24.That's where the burden of disease is in the region. Right, these cases
:38:25. > :38:29.this evening put the focus on transmission outside what we call
:38:30. > :38:33.the affected areas. Are we quite sure that mosquitoes that exist in,
:38:34. > :38:38.say, in Britain or the British Isles, are we quite sure they would
:38:39. > :38:43.not transmit the virus? We are fairly sure. This is an emerging
:38:44. > :38:51.situation and we need research. This is, as we are saying over and over
:38:52. > :38:55.again, we know that the Aedes mosquito that carries dengue and
:38:56. > :39:01.other diseases occurs in tropical climate. There is no suggestion that
:39:02. > :39:07.it can be transmitted by mosquitoes in the UK or colder climate. There
:39:08. > :39:12.is no evidence to support that. Do we have any knowledge as to how long
:39:13. > :39:17.it lurks in the body? If somebody travelled to Brazil, they come back,
:39:18. > :39:20.they don't want sexual contact with a partner who may potentially be
:39:21. > :39:26.becoming pregnant. How long do they need to wait? We simply don't know.
:39:27. > :39:30.This is why we need a co-operative international research effort to
:39:31. > :39:40.address all these questions. Because there's so many unknowns, still to
:39:41. > :39:46.prove the link with microcephaly and to work on vaccines and drugs to
:39:47. > :39:49.cure this disease. Briefly, the Olympics. It is hard to think this
:39:50. > :39:52.wouldn't have an affect on the willingness of people to travel
:39:53. > :39:58.there. I suppose there's two hopeful elements. One, the climate in Brazil
:39:59. > :40:03.is less favourable toll the Aedes mosquito at that time of year. And
:40:04. > :40:07.also that efforts to reduce the mosquito population might have
:40:08. > :40:12.kicked in. And we may have, the best case scenario is that the epidemic
:40:13. > :40:18.works its way through. But we just need to wait and see. All the travel
:40:19. > :40:23.advice out there already is very sensible. It should help guide
:40:24. > :40:25.people. Professor, thank you very much indeed.
:40:26. > :40:28.Before we move on - a quick look at the papers' reaction
:40:29. > :40:41.It is not going to make great reading for the Prime Minister. The
:40:42. > :40:46.great delusion, says the Daily Mail. The Times says Brussels will have
:40:47. > :40:52.right to reject benefit curbs. And backlash against watered down
:40:53. > :41:00.referendum deal. Financial Times, Cameron faces battle to sell EU deal
:41:01. > :41:05.to sceptical Tory MPs. The Daily Telegraph, Ministers to defy PM on
:41:06. > :41:10.Europe. None of these are looking good for him. The Guardian has one
:41:11. > :41:17.more encouraging for the Prime Minister. Cameron wins May's
:41:18. > :41:26.backing. And Dad's Army deal turns to farce. Who do EU think you are
:41:27. > :41:28.kidding Mr Cameron? Caves in over benefits, brake on laws.
:41:29. > :41:32.We leave you with some rather sinister social media cartoons
:41:33. > :41:35.created by the All-Russia People's Front, the ONF.
:41:36. > :41:39.The cartoons are allegedly part of an anti-corruption drive,
:41:40. > :41:42.and show various Russian public figures being killed
:41:43. > :41:45.by the Russian President in ways befitting their supposed offences.
:41:46. > :41:47.What makes it so disturbing is that the founder
:41:48. > :41:54.of the All Russia People's Front IS President Putin.