:00:00. > :00:07.Slovenia restricts its borders from midnight tonight.
:00:08. > :00:18.A plan is hatched to stop the migrant flow, but it's messy,
:00:19. > :00:24.morally complicated - possibly illegal.
:00:25. > :00:32.We are outsourcing problems to Turkey. They will decide who is a
:00:33. > :00:34.refugee, that is now the Turkish government who will decide and no
:00:35. > :00:35.longer the European Union. Would Europe solve the migrant
:00:36. > :00:38.crisis better without the EU? And what place would Britain
:00:39. > :00:40.want to play in it? The plan is to let more than one
:00:41. > :00:47.train company run a local franchise. Will they just cherry pick
:00:48. > :00:57.the most profitable routes? A lot of competition sounds great
:00:58. > :01:01.but where is the public interest, who will run services that do not
:01:02. > :01:05.make a profit, and who will allocate the use of an already congested
:01:06. > :01:06.line, which trains will get permission to run?
:01:07. > :01:11.We visit the Isle of Lewis - now better known as Donald Trump's
:01:12. > :01:19.What light can locals shed on the Republican frontrunner?
:01:20. > :01:25.He does not behave as people up here would behave. He is extremely full
:01:26. > :01:28.of himself. And will three-quid lobster
:01:29. > :01:30.be the new spag bol? We talk democratisation
:01:31. > :01:40.of the elite crustaceon. From midnight tonight,
:01:41. > :01:42.the main Balkan migration route into Europe
:01:43. > :01:50.will effectively be closed down Slovenia will enforce the demand
:01:51. > :01:53.for valid EU visas at its borders. The move will have
:01:54. > :01:55.a knock-on effect. Serbia will shut down its borders
:01:56. > :01:57.with Macedonia and Bulgaria, which means the thosuands
:01:58. > :01:59.of migrants currently stranded EU leaders talking long
:02:00. > :02:03.into the night to find a solution to this flow have come up
:02:04. > :02:05.with an improbable sounding one. The Turkish Prime Minister has
:02:06. > :02:09.agreed to readmit all those leaving his country -
:02:10. > :02:15.if the EU agrees to take refiugees -- refugees from Turkish
:02:16. > :02:17.camps in exchange. The practicalities sound fraught,
:02:18. > :02:19.messy, even illegal. But the underlying message
:02:20. > :02:22.is becoming clearer. The days of irregular migration -
:02:23. > :02:24.as Donald Tusk remarked - are over. Tonight, we look at the refugee
:02:25. > :02:31.crisis not just through the prism of Brexit, but through questions
:02:32. > :02:34.about what the European Union Our first report comes
:02:35. > :02:41.from Gabriel Gatehouse. If the announcement of the deal
:02:42. > :02:44.was designed to send a message, then it hasn't reached
:02:45. > :02:46.its target audience, They continued to arrive
:02:47. > :02:58.on Greece's eastern islands. More than 700 of them today,
:02:59. > :03:01.adding to the tens of thousands already in the country,
:03:02. > :03:03.hoping to make their The agreement has yet to be
:03:04. > :03:06.finalised, but if it is, Turkey will take back
:03:07. > :03:11.all irregular migrants. That means people like these,
:03:12. > :03:13.making cold perilous journeys in rubber dinghies without
:03:14. > :03:23.the proper documentation. In return, Turkey, already home to
:03:24. > :03:29.2.7 million Syrian refugees, gets a mass resettlement programme under
:03:30. > :03:33.the principle of one in, one out. Here is where things get
:03:34. > :03:39.controversial. Here is how it is supposed to work. Let's say a boat
:03:40. > :03:43.with 18 people aboard is intercepted in the Aegean and half of them are
:03:44. > :03:47.Syrians, under the agreement all will be returned to Turkey but in
:03:48. > :03:52.exchange nine of the Syrians living in refugee camps in Turkey will be
:03:53. > :03:57.flown to the EU for resettlement. No doubt with more than half an eye on
:03:58. > :04:00.the EU referendum, David Cameron made it clear Britain will not take
:04:01. > :04:09.part in resettlement programmes. We have a rock-solid, he tweeted last
:04:10. > :04:14.night. The Danish have a similar get out clause, but other EU nation
:04:15. > :04:21.state. It does not mean they will throw open their doors. This is the
:04:22. > :04:26.only country where refugees are considered a rock-solid vote loser.
:04:27. > :04:31.Slovakia and Poland are hostile to the idea. If this is to work, it
:04:32. > :04:36.will be Germany, putting together an ad hoc coalition of the willing. The
:04:37. > :04:40.Czech republic and Greeks are in and the Dutch would like to join and
:04:41. > :04:47.probably others, but that leaves questions, especially over numbers.
:04:48. > :04:54.By way of precedent the EU last year agreed a quota system for 160,000
:04:55. > :05:00.refugees already in Europe. To date, fewer than 700 have been rehoused.
:05:01. > :05:03.Critics of the agreement say it is pointless doing deals in Brussels
:05:04. > :05:10.without getting individual member states on board. We see member
:05:11. > :05:15.states are not capable, not in the capacity to find a common European
:05:16. > :05:27.response. It is not the first time. We saw it with previous crises. Why
:05:28. > :05:33.is this? Because they think is a European Council and con federation,
:05:34. > :05:39.deciding by unanimity, they can solve the problem. That is not true.
:05:40. > :05:44.We need a common European response. We need a European coastguard,
:05:45. > :05:52.asylum system and migration system to tackle this. If the countries are
:05:53. > :05:56.not willing to establish common policies, European policies, we will
:05:57. > :06:01.have more problems in the future and more crises to come. If the deal
:06:02. > :06:06.does not run into political difficulty it is likely to face
:06:07. > :06:09.legal obstacles. The UN says the arrangement could contravene
:06:10. > :06:13.international law. It only talks about refugees from Syria, that
:06:14. > :06:19.account for less than half arriving in Greece. What about people from
:06:20. > :06:22.Iraq, Afghanistan? It is difficult to do blanket -based returns of
:06:23. > :06:29.people on nationality without looking at individual claims. I
:06:30. > :06:34.think it is inevitable the returns will be challenged. Individuals in
:06:35. > :06:39.Greece will be able to access Greek courts and make applications to the
:06:40. > :06:43.European Court of Human Rights and there are basic principles of
:06:44. > :06:48.international law, which means the consequences of return in each case
:06:49. > :06:54.must be examined. Meanwhile migrants and refugees keep on coming, piling
:06:55. > :07:02.up on Greece's closed northern border. Turkey will receive the
:07:03. > :07:06.lives of euros, visa free travel, it has called it an important victory
:07:07. > :07:10.for its citizens. In Europe they could soon be asking if they have
:07:11. > :07:11.paid too high a price for something that might not work.
:07:12. > :07:15.So does a union of 29 European countries look like the best way
:07:16. > :07:18.And would Britain find it easier to work out its own response
:07:19. > :07:20.to immigration from the inside or the outside?
:07:21. > :07:28.Joining me is Labour MP Gisela Stuart and the Conservative
:07:29. > :07:40.You are an inner. You have seen this for yourself and visited the
:07:41. > :07:44.islands. When you look at the proposal the Turkish PM is putting
:07:45. > :07:51.forward, does it sound workable? It does provided some of the week
:07:52. > :07:57.processing eyesore is corrected. The islands are in utter chaos, with
:07:58. > :08:04.nobody doing processing of paperwork or human beings, yet they were
:08:05. > :08:09.promised money. I think the theory of this deal, putting aside legal
:08:10. > :08:12.debate, is potentially great, but it must be complemented by processes on
:08:13. > :08:19.the ground and somebody needs to organise it. The idea it is a
:08:20. > :08:25.blanket ban, returning people without questioning where they have
:08:26. > :08:32.come from, it sounds on workable and illegal. I am not an expert on
:08:33. > :08:35.asylum law. It seems Europe is trying to find a solution and if
:08:36. > :08:41.that means parking the rule book for a moment to better the life chances
:08:42. > :08:47.of this people, it must be worth looking at. They have come up with
:08:48. > :08:52.something, a plan that is potentially workable. Do you commend
:08:53. > :08:58.them? Do you see the importance of the EU at a time like this? Part of
:08:59. > :09:04.the reason we have the problem is of their own creation. If you go back
:09:05. > :09:11.when we had the crisis in Libya and the Italians tries to control
:09:12. > :09:18.borders and it was not financed by the EU. It failed in Malta, Italy,
:09:19. > :09:25.it goes on failing. We have this situation where in your PC said we
:09:26. > :09:29.need to find a common answer. There comes a point where you say you are
:09:30. > :09:35.failing to find a common answer. Because they are wedded to the
:09:36. > :09:39.single currency and free movement of labour, they are refusing to accept
:09:40. > :09:45.there was a problem with Schengen when you did not have internal
:09:46. > :09:51.borders, this isn't working. Are you suggesting Europe has created this
:09:52. > :09:57.problem? He was right when he said the countries are outsourcing
:09:58. > :10:01.controls of the Borders. Large European countries, Germany and
:10:02. > :10:07.France, have for many years outsourced the responsibility to
:10:08. > :10:11.Greece, Italy, southern borders of Spain, without accepting the
:10:12. > :10:15.consequences. This is what is happening, the consequences of that
:10:16. > :10:20.failure. Outsourcing, it sounds like it comes at a price, the concessions
:10:21. > :10:30.Turkey is asking for that Turks would have visa free travel. And we
:10:31. > :10:36.are putting membership of the EU for Turkey on the table. It is massive?
:10:37. > :10:40.It feels a massive price to pay. I do not disagree with anything you
:10:41. > :10:46.have said. I think Britain feels like that, we have received between
:10:47. > :10:50.us, we are all right, Jack, but it is now coming to everybody's doors,
:10:51. > :10:56.which means an opportunity for Europe to work together. 90% of the
:10:57. > :11:03.1 million who came in in the past year are people who came through
:11:04. > :11:09.that route. Nothing of this is addressing it. Turkey, which is
:11:10. > :11:13.behaving in liberally, more than it has for a long time, we would not
:11:14. > :11:18.grant membership. We are suddenly saying it is fine. We have a
:11:19. > :11:23.sequence of short-term solutions that rather than solving down the
:11:24. > :11:26.line problems, aggravates them. If the politicians who made those
:11:27. > :11:33.decisions would pay the price, I would say OK. It is the thousands of
:11:34. > :11:37.people and children paying the price for political failure. Would you
:11:38. > :11:43.concede membership of the EU for Turkey is worth it? That they will
:11:44. > :11:49.help solve this. It is not a perfect and instance acceptance. There are
:11:50. > :11:55.hurdles to be accepted and I do not think it should circumvent those,
:11:56. > :11:58.but do I think we have to put ourselves in a Brave new world of
:11:59. > :12:08.finding a deal that helps everyone, because it is so large now. Turkey
:12:09. > :12:15.in the EU? If it means we have to get around a table that feels
:12:16. > :12:19.unpalatable to start with... Do you think David Cameron, George Osborne,
:12:20. > :12:24.arguing to remain in, would be comfortable with an enlarged EU
:12:25. > :12:34.including Turkey? I think they feel reasonably confident because despite
:12:35. > :12:39.the potential deal with Turkey, we are not obliged to take any
:12:40. > :12:45.migrants. I think morally we should take more. There is no necessity for
:12:46. > :12:51.us to do, so in some ways we have the special relationship. I find it
:12:52. > :12:56.extraordinary. As it happens, it has been our failure to deal with Turkey
:12:57. > :13:01.properly. And their membership applications which has been part of
:13:02. > :13:05.the problem, but now it is behaving in liberally added time but it has a
:13:06. > :13:13.population equal to Germany, and we are being told Britain will have a
:13:14. > :13:17.say, the voting weight with either same as Germany, probably larger
:13:18. > :13:23.than the UK, this requires thinking through. It is not a short-term
:13:24. > :13:29.response to a deep crisis. I would rather go back and say, look at
:13:30. > :13:35.Schengen, look at the Freedom of movement and when it serves a
:13:36. > :13:42.purpose, strength in dealing with smugglers. Strengthen what Nato is
:13:43. > :13:47.doing. Then we might get somewhere, but not like this. A combined
:13:48. > :13:52.strategy. How many should be take? You say you are not on the same
:13:53. > :13:58.level as the government. Where should the UK obligation go? I think
:13:59. > :14:02.it is a moving feast and we need to say 20,000 might not be enough, but
:14:03. > :14:06.if this plan works and we stem the flow and stopped a separate between
:14:07. > :14:11.economic migrants and those who need asylum. 50, 100? You must have a
:14:12. > :14:18.sense of how far this reach would go. I sense it could double. I am
:14:19. > :14:23.interested in the orphaned children. People say I'm accompanied, but
:14:24. > :14:28.these are children who genuinely have nobody in the world. Those
:14:29. > :14:30.children, I think we have an obligation to take. Thanks.
:14:31. > :14:33.Meanwhile, the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has
:14:34. > :14:34.come under fire from Brexiters for his remarks
:14:35. > :14:40.He stopped short of advising the UK to stay in, but he said an exit
:14:41. > :14:42.could hurt Britain's economy and prompt some banks to abandon
:14:43. > :14:44.London as a global financial powerhouse.
:14:45. > :14:45.Lord Lawson called the intervention entirely political
:14:46. > :14:53.Or is it unrealistic to ask our business and financial
:14:54. > :15:03.leaders not to get involved in such a crucial debate?
:15:04. > :15:11.The issue is the biggest domestic risk to financial stability.
:15:12. > :15:15.Because, in part, of the issues around uncertainty, but also, if I
:15:16. > :15:23.may just finished quickly, because it has the potential, depending on
:15:24. > :15:31.how it is prosecuted and how these issues can be addressed, to amplify
:15:32. > :15:34.risks around accounts, potential risks around housing and market
:15:35. > :15:42.function, which we will try to mitigate, and also associated risks
:15:43. > :15:50.with respects to the euro area. The reason I am asking is that example
:15:51. > :15:54.in themselves. You say it is more than a little extra volatility, this
:15:55. > :16:01.departure? It would represent more than that? Or are you saying that is
:16:02. > :16:07.all it is? I'm saying it is a risk, the biggest domestic risk to
:16:08. > :16:13.financial stability. The European Union regulation achieves the
:16:14. > :16:17.highest international standard. There are some exceptions but in the
:16:18. > :16:27.name, that is the case. If we were to be outside, the question is how
:16:28. > :16:32.much influence would we have? One would expect some activity to move,
:16:33. > :16:38.certainly there is a logic to that. And there is a view that has been
:16:39. > :16:46.expressed publicly and privately by a number of institutions that they
:16:47. > :16:50.would look at it and I would say that a number of institutions are
:16:51. > :16:56.contingency planning for that possibility, major institutions
:16:57. > :17:03.headquartered here, so there would be an impact.
:17:04. > :17:04.Richard Tice is co-founder of the Leave.EU group.
:17:05. > :17:14.Also from the perspective of a property developer, is that right?
:17:15. > :17:17.Do you really think we should be gagging those who might help the
:17:18. > :17:23.public understand these incredibly competitions? No, definitely not. It
:17:24. > :17:26.is actually the prime minister who has been trying to gag people,
:17:27. > :17:33.initially ministers, cabinet members, and recently John Waller.
:17:34. > :17:37.So you have no problem with Mark Carney today? I do not and let's be
:17:38. > :17:41.clear, he has not made any recommendation either way. They also
:17:42. > :17:45.said that no conference of assessment has been made. He
:17:46. > :17:48.mentioned risks and risks everyday in our lives in business and
:17:49. > :17:54.domestic life. I do happy with him coming out and saying that there
:17:55. > :17:59.will be risks involved? -- are you happy. There are permanent risks in
:18:00. > :18:04.business, as I have said, and life is full of risks. But he also said
:18:05. > :18:08.today that the bigger risk, the global risks, China, and other
:18:09. > :18:12.things that he inferred, for example possibly the American economy. So
:18:13. > :18:16.actually, to refer to this as a domestic risk, we could argue it is
:18:17. > :18:22.good news for the leave campaign. Does it make you embarrassed when
:18:23. > :18:25.people on your side, Jacob Rees-Mogg and the Treasury Select Committee,
:18:26. > :18:29.or Lord Lawson, when they say he has been wrong to come out, that he has
:18:30. > :18:34.been a political animal to get involved. You seem more relaxed. I
:18:35. > :18:37.am relaxed. At the end of the day, the government governor of the Bank
:18:38. > :18:40.of England has a role to play but he has said clearly he is not making a
:18:41. > :18:43.recommendation. Equally, the bank of a bond is part of the establishment
:18:44. > :18:50.and they will not go against the government. Ultimately, the people
:18:51. > :18:55.have a view of what the establishment is saying, and we are
:18:56. > :18:58.relaxed about it. -- the bank of England. He has referred to the
:18:59. > :19:02.domestic issues, the bigger global risks. The proof is in the pudding.
:19:03. > :19:07.Take HSBC. They have recently decided to keep their global
:19:08. > :19:13.headquarters in London after a two or three year review. That could
:19:14. > :19:16.easily have been deferred until after the Brexit vote. But they
:19:17. > :19:20.didn't, they made the commitment to stay in London because it is the
:19:21. > :19:28.best global financial centre. That is a huge statement of intent. What
:19:29. > :19:33.you do with all that weight on the other side, whether it is the CEO of
:19:34. > :19:38.BA, or has there, Marks Spencer is, Heathrow and Gatwick airports,
:19:39. > :19:43.if people are saying, I recognise and trust that brand, and I believe
:19:44. > :19:47.in that CEO, and they are all, overwhelmingly on the side of
:19:48. > :19:52.remaining. What does that tell you? We have had companies like Nissan
:19:53. > :19:57.and Toyota, JCB, huge companies saying it would not affect
:19:58. > :20:00.investment plans and plans for UK jobs. Take a throw. They want a
:20:01. > :20:04.third runway and that is a government decisions open Number Ten
:20:05. > :20:09.says, please sign this letter, are you going to deny that? Of course
:20:10. > :20:11.not. You scratch my back, I scratch yours. You think they are all
:20:12. > :20:15.politically pocketed by the government? They are all being
:20:16. > :20:21.pushed into this? That is a very good example. The government
:20:22. > :20:24.admitted to organising the letter of the team leaders. A lot of them
:20:25. > :20:28.declined to sign it. Then the military letter, Number Ten got that
:20:29. > :20:34.wrong. Would you say that BA is being pressurised, Asda, Marks
:20:35. > :20:37.Spencer? Vodafone? I wonder how far you think the tentacles of
:20:38. > :20:43.government reach. The leaders of those businesses are generally
:20:44. > :20:47.corporate managers who have risen through corporate life.
:20:48. > :20:51.Entrepreneurs, Peter Hargreavess of this world, people in the city like
:20:52. > :20:55.Oliver Hemsley, people like Peter Cruddas and Terry Smith, the
:20:56. > :21:00.entrepreneurs in the city are almost exclusively, by and large for out.
:21:01. > :21:04.That tells you a lot about the real risk takers and where they see
:21:05. > :21:08.opportunities. I don't know what you would call her an entrepreneur or a
:21:09. > :21:13.risk taker but we have the front page of the Sun, which says that the
:21:14. > :21:17.Queen backs Brexit. The EU is going the wrong direction, she says. She
:21:18. > :21:23.is hailed as a backer of Brexit after details emerged about an
:21:24. > :21:26.alleged bust up between her and Nick Clegg over Europe. Is that an
:21:27. > :21:31.overwhelmingly political intervention. I think that seals it.
:21:32. > :21:37.I am a royalist and the Queen is always right. Let's vote tomorrow.
:21:38. > :21:40.And you think that will shut up everyone on the no campaign, on the
:21:41. > :21:46.Brexit campaign, saying that we cannot let big figures, the Mark
:21:47. > :21:50.Carneys of this world get involved? I have to say, this is from the sun
:21:51. > :21:53.and we have not had Palace confirmation, but does that stop
:21:54. > :21:58.anyone moaning about big figures getting involved? Anyone can get
:21:59. > :22:03.involved. Publicly. You are proud to see her come out and say that? Yes.
:22:04. > :22:07.I am proud to see people stand up and get counted but when people like
:22:08. > :22:11.John Longworth stand up and be counted, they make clear it is a
:22:12. > :22:15.personal view, to then be forced to resign... Can the Queen not have a
:22:16. > :22:20.personal view? She is as entitled as anybody. The real point is that all
:22:21. > :22:24.of us should stand up and be counted, rather than being shamed
:22:25. > :22:28.into silence. Thank you for coming in.
:22:29. > :22:32.How to run railways, though, is a problem we've
:22:33. > :22:35.Over the past two centuries, we've tried more or less every
:22:36. > :22:36.conceivable system of financing and regulation
:22:37. > :22:40.of appointing the Fat Controller from Thomas the Tank Engine.
:22:41. > :22:42.The question is a live rail in politics once again,
:22:43. > :22:44.with Labour promising to renationalise
:22:45. > :22:51.While last year, the government launched a review into the future
:22:52. > :22:55.Into this mix today the public body charged with giving power
:22:56. > :22:58.to consumers called for far more competition on the rails.
:22:59. > :23:11.Turning the monolith of British rail into an overlapping network of
:23:12. > :23:18.competing companies was not an easy job. British rail may have been the
:23:19. > :23:23.nation's aunt Sally but at least it is a single entity. Tomorrow becomes
:23:24. > :23:26.art group of 25... Like designing the French republic, we have tried
:23:27. > :23:31.quite a few different systems on our railways. Revolution has never been
:23:32. > :23:34.far away. Rail privatisation was supposed to introduce competition
:23:35. > :23:42.into the system at the bidding phase. The companies would compete
:23:43. > :23:45.for the franchise. But once the franchise was won, passengers will
:23:46. > :23:49.get little choice of which company they travelled with to a given
:23:50. > :23:53.destination. This is the system at the moment. East franchise -- each
:23:54. > :23:56.franchise controls its own route. But the competition in markets
:23:57. > :24:00.authority today recommended allowing different companies to compete for
:24:01. > :24:05.passengers along the same routes. Their logic, in a more competitive
:24:06. > :24:10.environment, companies will push to be more efficient, and for there to
:24:11. > :24:14.be better use of existing capacity, so there are benefits for the
:24:15. > :24:18.network and the tax payer who help to subsidise the railways. The
:24:19. > :24:24.current franchise system is not competitive. 12 of the last 16
:24:25. > :24:29.awards have not been subject to open competition. Competition sounds good
:24:30. > :24:33.but would it be like the buses, where there are lots of companies
:24:34. > :24:36.that want to run the profitable routes but nobody wants to run the
:24:37. > :24:40.other routes? So where is the public interest in all of this? There is
:24:41. > :24:44.already some competition in the system. This train is about to leave
:24:45. > :24:47.for Birmingham out of London Marylebone. The operating company
:24:48. > :24:51.that runs it is in direct competition on that route for
:24:52. > :24:57.passengers and their business with companies that run out of Euston.
:24:58. > :25:03.Passengers heading to Birmingham might prefer the free Wi-Fi here, or
:25:04. > :25:07.one of the other companies out of Euston. One promising faster journey
:25:08. > :25:11.times and the other cheaper fares. If you look at the routes that we
:25:12. > :25:15.serve, London to Birmingham is one of the fastest-growing rail markets
:25:16. > :25:20.in the country. There are eight trains every hour between London and
:25:21. > :25:24.Birmingham, competing on price, quality and speed. Passengers get
:25:25. > :25:28.great results from that. But critics say it is far easier to get train
:25:29. > :25:32.companies competing when there are lots of passengers to play for. On
:25:33. > :25:37.less popular routes, even one company may struggle to break even.
:25:38. > :25:41.The loss of competition sounds great and it could work. -- lots of
:25:42. > :25:45.competition. But we have to delve deeper. Webb is the public interest?
:25:46. > :25:49.Who will run the services that do not make a profit and who will
:25:50. > :25:54.allocate the use of an already congested line? Which trains get
:25:55. > :25:59.permission to run? Last year we opened the first new rail route for
:26:00. > :26:03.100 years. That was designed to directly compete with the government
:26:04. > :26:10.train company. Oxford is not the biggest city in Britain but there is
:26:11. > :26:16.enough competition to make it work. For the railways, the move ahead is
:26:17. > :26:20.unclear. The report on Network Rail is expected imminently. Network Rail
:26:21. > :26:22.is the state owned company which manages and maintains our
:26:23. > :26:26.infrastructure. There has been spec elation that the report will
:26:27. > :26:30.recommend it should be broken up and we privatised. Meanwhile, the Labour
:26:31. > :26:34.Party's policy is for the entire system to be renationalised. There
:26:35. > :26:39.is certainly no shortage of edition between ideas. -- no shortage of
:26:40. > :26:40.competition. The billionaire who makes
:26:41. > :26:44.Donald Trump look hard up - Michael Bloomberg -
:26:45. > :26:46.ruled himself out of This as Trump and Clinton lead
:26:47. > :26:50.the polls going into the next round of American primary races
:26:51. > :26:52.in Michigan and Mississippi. Donald Trump's mother,
:26:53. > :26:55.as he was happy to tell anyone Scottish when he was trying
:26:56. > :26:57.to build his Aberdeen golf course, comes from a simple crofter's
:26:58. > :27:00.cottage in the Outer Hebrides. Trump's cousins still live
:27:01. > :27:03.there and the billionaire himself in Trump 1 to get in
:27:04. > :27:09.touch with his roots. A sentimental journey
:27:10. > :27:10.lasting almost three hours. Whilst so many of us have thrown
:27:11. > :27:13.ourselves around America on the desperate trail of the US
:27:14. > :27:15.presidential hopeful, one man, a little bit
:27:16. > :27:17.older, a little bit wiser, believed he could find out
:27:18. > :27:21.more from staying closer to home. That man, none other
:27:22. > :27:23.than my colleague, Stephen Smith, headed to the wind-lashed island
:27:24. > :27:25.of Lewis to find out things about Donald Trump that America can
:27:26. > :27:42.only dream of. A windblown, God-fearing island,
:27:43. > :27:44.rich in peat and Gaelic heritage No wonder Donald Trump likes
:27:45. > :27:51.to boast of his links to Lewis. Did it help to make him
:27:52. > :27:57.the man he is today? And how have the values
:27:58. > :27:59.of these hard-working, plain-speaking
:28:00. > :28:00.folks shaped the They are not for blowing
:28:01. > :28:06.their own trumpets here. They are not ones for
:28:07. > :28:09.fanfaring themselves. No matter what your position
:28:10. > :28:15.in life, you are treated There are brilliant people,
:28:16. > :28:25.very warm-hearted people. We are very proud of people
:28:26. > :28:30.who make such a great impact And I mean the hairdo,
:28:31. > :28:37.let's be honest, it could be I am on a whistle-stop tour
:28:38. > :28:47.of the island in search of answers Donald's mother, Mary MacLeod,
:28:48. > :28:57.came from the tiny She left for New York
:28:58. > :29:02.when she was 18 and ran into a builder called
:29:03. > :29:04.Trump, and the rest, The Trumps told US
:29:05. > :29:11.TV viewers they saw # If you go, will you send back
:29:12. > :29:32.a letter from America... The tycoon visited
:29:33. > :29:36.his mother's old home in 2008, spending as much
:29:37. > :29:39.as a minute and a half inside the pebble-dashed
:29:40. > :29:41.croft house. All in all he clocked up almost
:29:42. > :29:49.three hours on the peaty Lewis It seems the women come back
:29:50. > :29:55.and the men go out and try I have been busy building
:29:56. > :30:08.jobs all over the world, and it is tough to find
:30:09. > :30:11.the time to come back but this seemed an appropriate time
:30:12. > :30:13.because I had the plane, Trump's cousins still
:30:14. > :30:17.live in Tong, but they The Western Isles, including Lewis,
:30:18. > :30:26.rejected the Yes campaign in the Scottish
:30:27. > :30:31.independence referendum. And Trump has had his ups and downs
:30:32. > :30:35.with the nationalists over his golf course, a solid two-iron
:30:36. > :30:42.away on the mainland. # I don't mind the politicians,
:30:43. > :30:49.I don't mind the rain... Putting the folk into focus group,
:30:50. > :30:52.this bunch in Stornoway were among the few willing to share
:30:53. > :31:01.their thoughts about Mr Trump. Do you know anyone who says,
:31:02. > :31:04.don't quote me, but I am dead I've not heard it, I've never
:31:05. > :31:08.heard his name mentioned. I think he doesn't
:31:09. > :31:15.behave as people up here He is extremely full of himself,
:31:16. > :31:21.which people here aren't. Do you know about
:31:22. > :31:26.the family, what are The stereotype is all Lewis
:31:27. > :31:45.stories are gloomy. The definition of a happy ending
:31:46. > :31:48.of a Lewis story is if you get There is another seam
:31:49. > :32:03.of Lewis stories - the clever peasant girl
:32:04. > :32:06.who gets one over the laird. Isn't the story of Mary MacLeod
:32:07. > :32:11.a brilliant real-life Lewis Here she is, a girl
:32:12. > :32:15.from the country, who goes away to New York, and her son could be
:32:16. > :32:18.president of the United States, that is going to be
:32:19. > :32:23.part of Lewis folklore. You are the first
:32:24. > :32:28.person who says so! In Lewis, our main
:32:29. > :32:34.passion is blood sport. I know it is not fashionable
:32:35. > :32:42.in the rest of Britain, but we like blood sport
:32:43. > :32:45.but our blood sport is genealogy - The qualities I would
:32:46. > :32:53.hope he would take from these islands is
:32:54. > :32:56.the qualities of kindness. Being accepting of others,
:32:57. > :32:57.regardless of religious beliefs, regardless
:32:58. > :33:09.of what country they are from. Donald Trump is a chip
:33:10. > :33:11.off the old block. He can trace his ancestry
:33:12. > :33:13.to these ancient He is from Lewis, up
:33:14. > :33:19.to a point, but it would be stretching things to
:33:20. > :33:24.say he is of Lewis. But just as we were leaving,
:33:25. > :33:27.a sign - a pot of gold attended What does the price of lobster tell
:33:28. > :33:39.you about the state of the economy? It's the kind of question regular
:33:40. > :33:42.viewers of Newsnight wont be And its prompted by the the arrival
:33:43. > :33:47.of the ?2.99 lobster Lobster, although blue-blooded
:33:48. > :33:51.itself, was not always the preserve Until the mid-19th century,
:33:52. > :33:55.it was known as a food Even servants would stipulate
:33:56. > :33:59.a contractual refusal to eat it more So how did it rise -
:34:00. > :34:04.and what is helping it now fall - Joining me is food
:34:05. > :34:12.historian Dr Polly Russell. And Adam Leyland, editor
:34:13. > :34:26.of The Grocer website. And our lobster is centre stage.
:34:27. > :34:33.This is a great thing, isn't it, to have a lobster that costs ?2 99? It
:34:34. > :34:37.is certainly great that food is made available to large numbers of
:34:38. > :34:43.people, especially food that has been the preserve of the wealthy.
:34:44. > :34:48.That is exciting, it is good news, but not a wholly good news story
:34:49. > :34:52.because part of the reason the cost of the lobster is so inexpensive is
:34:53. > :34:58.because there has been a rise in the amount of lobster in the North
:34:59. > :35:01.American area, and that is a result of climate change, which has meant
:35:02. > :35:07.they are breeding more rapidly because the temperature of the Seas
:35:08. > :35:10.is rising and also because we have decimated cod stocks and that is
:35:11. > :35:16.their natural predator and they are no longer eating them. Something
:35:17. > :35:20.good about it, but not wholly good. The cod and lobster have swapped
:35:21. > :35:29.over because cod was always readily available and cheap. Cod stocks are
:35:30. > :35:35.at risk, although being managed in different oceans, but there was a
:35:36. > :35:37.time when cod and lobster, particularly on the coast, were
:35:38. > :35:43.flourishing and were cheap and that has changed. Should it put people
:35:44. > :35:48.off, anyone reaching for a cheap lobster, do you have to say, I am
:35:49. > :35:51.devastating the world when you do this? I don't think you do because
:35:52. > :36:00.lobster has always been freely available. Huge volumes over there.
:36:01. > :36:04.Stop is at the highest level for 100 years. That therefore serves 100
:36:05. > :36:10.years ago, before global warming had been mentioned as a concept, there
:36:11. > :36:14.was a huge amount of lobster available. It used to stack up six
:36:15. > :36:19.feet high on the seashore. It used to be fed to chickens and pigs and
:36:20. > :36:26.so one. The marketing people took over with lobster and turned it into
:36:27. > :36:29.a luxury, but it never was a luxury, particularly in the Northwest
:36:30. > :36:34.Atlantic, it was saved freely available. It is about the
:36:35. > :36:39.democratisation of the product. ?2 99 is a low price that this
:36:40. > :36:44.particular discounter has made available for a limited period for
:36:45. > :36:49.vouchers people have received. You cannot walk in there, a restaurant
:36:50. > :36:52.cannot go in and buy it and serve it in their restaurant. Would you say
:36:53. > :36:59.it changes the way we think about lobster? I call it the new spaghetti
:37:00. > :37:06.Bolognese, perhaps that is overdoing it, but perhaps it changes the
:37:07. > :37:09.perception of lobster. There have been products that were very
:37:10. > :37:17.expensive and have become cheap. One last point, this is a Marine
:37:18. > :37:21.stewardship Council certified lobster. Therefore it is not the
:37:22. > :37:29.case we are raping the Seas, it has been carefully monitored. The
:37:30. > :37:35.artificiality was the rising of the price.
:37:36. > :37:38.There are two points. They might be sustainably fished, I am not
:37:39. > :37:44.bringing up that is an issue, but there is a broader story, about
:37:45. > :37:51.rising sea temperatures, and about climate change, in which the food
:37:52. > :37:55.industry play some part. I'm not saying these in particular. The
:37:56. > :37:59.climate change argument that makes people stop in their tracks, but a
:38:00. > :38:06.lot of foodstuffs have changed hands, whether it is the oyster...
:38:07. > :38:11.What is significant is where you have seen significant shifts in the
:38:12. > :38:16.consumption of food, say chicken, where it was very expensive in much
:38:17. > :38:20.of the 20th century, until the 50s, and you see the rise of intensive
:38:21. > :38:26.farming and refrigeration and the cost is driven down and it is
:38:27. > :38:30.cheaper, the same with pineapples. 18th century, expensive, by the late
:38:31. > :38:36.19th century they are farmed and coming over and they are cheaper.
:38:37. > :38:39.These changes are driven through, changes in farming, production
:38:40. > :38:44.techniques and transport. What we are seeing here is different.
:38:45. > :38:49.Something that has changed because of climate change. Not something we
:38:50. > :38:54.are controlling. So this comes from a slightly less comfortable
:38:55. > :39:01.perspective? The climate is changing and that is worrying. The fishing
:39:02. > :39:06.industry, if the sea is changing, is not because of the fisheries. If it
:39:07. > :39:13.is getting warmer it is because it is getting warm. Arguably there is
:39:14. > :39:18.all sorts of foodstuffs that will be affected by climate change. In this
:39:19. > :39:26.case, it is not the case it is only there, this printer., it is not only
:39:27. > :39:33.there because of global warming. -- this stock. This is the case it is
:39:34. > :39:34.plentiful, but in five years it could potentially not be the case.
:39:35. > :39:39.Thanks. That is it tonight. For those who feel that life has
:39:40. > :39:42.become cluttered by very simple things made too complicated,
:39:43. > :39:44.we leave you with this, Swedish musician Martin Molin -
:39:45. > :39:48.who's built a Rube Goldberg machine - defined as a contraption,
:39:49. > :39:50.invention, device or apparatus that is deliberately over-engineered
:39:51. > :39:52.to perform a simple task This Marble Machine
:39:53. > :40:59.definitely qualifies. The weather looks like settling down
:41:00. > :41:06.but we have got to get there and it is not a pretty picture. Tomorrow a
:41:07. > :41:10.lot of brain around. Strong winds. Unpleasant in England and Wales. In
:41:11. > :41:15.Northern Ireland, it will be bright and dry and a nice afternoon to come
:41:16. > :41:20.here. In Scotland, brighter conditions easing in from the west.
:41:21. > :41:25.Rain towards the eastern coast. Rain for much of the day across the heart
:41:26. > :41:31.of Central and eastern England and it will feel cold and bleak. A cold
:41:32. > :41:36.northerly wind. Some drier spells at times. Not to be relied upon and
:41:37. > :41:41.further wet weather across southern and eastern areas of England. In the
:41:42. > :41:45.south-west, after a wet and windy start, things should brighten up and
:41:46. > :41:47.dry up. The wind will slowly die down but