:00:08. > :00:11.The Russians say they're with drawing from Syria.
:00:12. > :00:20.Is it job done or is something else going on?
:00:21. > :00:25.We'll ask what this means for peace talks and for the Assad regime.
:00:26. > :00:30.Also tonight, the shaken baby row - We talk to the doctor who's accused
:00:31. > :00:33.of dishonesty and threatened with being struck off,
:00:34. > :00:36.because of her trial evidence as an expert witness.
:00:37. > :00:43.In plain English, are you saying that shaken baby syndrome is
:00:44. > :00:47.rubbish? Yes, I am. I think we've known that from the very outset. I
:00:48. > :00:51.know it's not... Will scenes like this help or halt
:00:52. > :01:00.the Donald Trump juggernaut? If you're an African first, go back
:01:01. > :01:05.to Africa. Go back to Europe. We'll be talking to George Bush's
:01:06. > :01:08.former speech writer, Like so many things Russian,
:01:09. > :01:22.it came entirely without warning: An announcement by President Putin,
:01:23. > :01:25.a few hours ago, that his troops would - in the main -
:01:26. > :01:28.be pulling out of Syria. The Obama administration -
:01:29. > :01:30.and indeed governments here in Europe -
:01:31. > :01:32.were taken by surprise. Perhaps that was no small
:01:33. > :01:35.part of the strategy. It is five months since Russian
:01:36. > :01:38.forces entered the conflict in Syria, at the request,
:01:39. > :01:41.the Kremlin says, of Tonight, President Putin spoke
:01:42. > :01:45.with the air of a man whose So is it a genuine withdrawal
:01:46. > :02:07.or is it a political manoeuvre Lyse Doucet, the BBC's chief
:02:08. > :02:12.international correspondent, has spent much of the last five
:02:13. > :02:26.years covering the Syrian civil war, How do you read this? I think we
:02:27. > :02:31.have to be very careful in how we read it. Because the West has gotten
:02:32. > :02:37.Russia wrong so many times before. Go back to September of last year,
:02:38. > :02:43.when Russia suddenly announced that it was going to be targeting the
:02:44. > :02:47.so-called Islamic State in Syria. That took Western powers, took the
:02:48. > :02:51.world, by surprise then. Recently senior American officials said to
:02:52. > :02:56.me, we were naive. We believed Russia when it said that it would be
:02:57. > :02:59.targeting IS. Then they slowly began to realise that the main target was
:03:00. > :03:03.not IS at all, it was some of the very groups that the West, the
:03:04. > :03:06.moderate opposition groups, that the West wanted to have at the
:03:07. > :03:11.negotiating table venlt it's interesting -- table. It's
:03:12. > :03:19.interesting to hear the phrase used by President Putin, "job done".
:03:20. > :03:23.Under cover of coming in to support the West, the Russians have
:03:24. > :03:26.strengthened their only Naval Base along the Mediterranean. They have
:03:27. > :03:31.built a new air base, they're using that for their flights. They've sent
:03:32. > :03:34.in advanced weaponry. All of that is staying. Russia isn't going
:03:35. > :03:38.anywhere. What about the decision to say it's going to be pulling out
:03:39. > :03:43.some of its troops? Well, I think that is sending a message about the
:03:44. > :03:46.other objective for President Putin. Having strengthened the position of
:03:47. > :03:51.President Assad's forces, and they were almost failing on some
:03:52. > :03:54.strategic frontlines, it is now turning his attention to the
:03:55. > :03:58.political process, the so-called Peace Talks, and I don't think it
:03:59. > :04:03.likes the soundings it's getting from Damascus, where they're saying
:04:04. > :04:06.we refuse to discuss the future of President Assad and even
:04:07. > :04:10.presidential elections, which are part of the very political process
:04:11. > :04:15.that Russia has played a key role in forging. As you work through the tea
:04:16. > :04:22.leaves, where do you think it leaves Western intervention in Syria? Well,
:04:23. > :04:28.let's say that the last five months of Russia's intervention in Syria
:04:29. > :04:36.have been first, rising anger in Western capitals, but aside from
:04:37. > :04:40.that, hand wringing. They have found themselves absolutely powerless to
:04:41. > :04:43.do anything as Russia got away with its strategic objectives in the
:04:44. > :04:47.reason. I was at the Munich security forum, the place was resounding to
:04:48. > :04:53.criticism of Russia. I said well, then why did Russia get away with it
:04:54. > :04:57.and allow an agreement on a truce which excluded the Russian bombing
:04:58. > :05:04.in Syria around strategic areas like Aleppo and you'd get a shrug. Well,
:05:05. > :05:12.we had to work with Russia. Russia is the main player. So Russia has
:05:13. > :05:15.played a role. It's not for nothing. Look at Arab states backing the
:05:16. > :05:19.opposition. They're making more trips to Moscow than they are to
:05:20. > :05:24.Washington. When I saw King Abdullah last month, he says, "The Russians
:05:25. > :05:28.for bad or worse have shaken the tree." You might not like what's
:05:29. > :05:30.coming down from the tree, but it's galvanised the process. Fascinating.
:05:31. > :05:33.Thanks very much. Let's look at what the Russian
:05:34. > :05:35.withdrawal tells us about the state of the Syria crisis and how the West
:05:36. > :05:38.should respond to it. Joining me now are Crispin Blunt,
:05:39. > :05:41.chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, and Sarah Lain,
:05:42. > :05:52.a Russia expert at the Royal United Warm welcome to you both. Thanks for
:05:53. > :05:59.coming in. It's a very interesting to hear Lyse put it not from our
:06:00. > :06:05.perspective, but perhaps from the perspective of Bashar al-Assad. He's
:06:06. > :06:09.angry. There's an element of truth in that. There's been a dichotomy,
:06:10. > :06:14.between the Iranians and Russians, in terms of their attitude to Assad
:06:15. > :06:18.and his longevity. The Russians have key interests there, continuing with
:06:19. > :06:21.their air base and Naval Base. That's going to be sustained. There
:06:22. > :06:24.will have been interesting conversations between the Saudis and
:06:25. > :06:29.Russians where certainly the Saudis have been using the oil weapon to
:06:30. > :06:35.depress the oil price, which has a serious effect on the Russian
:06:36. > :06:40.economy. I don't think we should overlook Russia's need to address
:06:41. > :06:46.that issue. If Assad, they are putting Assad in play, that may meet
:06:47. > :06:50.some Saudi objectives. At the same time, they are militarily probably
:06:51. > :06:57.very stretched to sustain this operation for very much longer.
:06:58. > :07:02.Lyse's words came with a caveat. All things Russian you have to take with
:07:03. > :07:05.a pinch of salt. You're very good at watching the Putin manoeuvres. What
:07:06. > :07:09.do you read into what he's done today? I think the element of
:07:10. > :07:12.mistrust is obviously quite large in this, particularly from the West
:07:13. > :07:16.towards Russia. Russia came into this saying it was fighting Isis. It
:07:17. > :07:20.clearly wasn't. But I do think to echo what's been said is that
:07:21. > :07:25.there's really nothing the West can do about this. Russia came into this
:07:26. > :07:29.scenario for strategic reasons. It was trying to bolster Assad, at a
:07:30. > :07:33.time when he looked like he was falling. Without Assad Russia loses
:07:34. > :07:37.influence in the Middle East. Things have moved on since then. It was a
:07:38. > :07:41.matter of time before Russia needed to pick a point at which it needed
:07:42. > :07:44.to move the situation to a political discussion, which is what you're
:07:45. > :07:48.seeing from Putin now. Interesting that we hear that the Naval Base
:07:49. > :07:54.there has never been stronger. Was this all part of a process just to
:07:55. > :07:58.shore up Russian naval support there, whatever the antics in the
:07:59. > :08:04.air? I think that's part of it. Certainly there was a strategic
:08:05. > :08:08.military objective. Previously this was not strategically important to
:08:09. > :08:13.Russia. They've built it up. They've put personnel there and gained a new
:08:14. > :08:17.air base in La tacka, which is now a centre for mediating the ceasefire
:08:18. > :08:23.that Russia helped to broker. This was partly part of Russia's foreign
:08:24. > :08:28.policy within the Middle East. But also, foreign policy that's been
:08:29. > :08:30.consistent with what we've seen in Ukraine, regarding Russia's
:08:31. > :08:33.frustration at the Russian perception that America is setting
:08:34. > :08:38.the international rules. I think there are many objectives here. Do
:08:39. > :08:44.you think we will regard this as victory of a sort for Russia? When
:08:45. > :08:47.history writes it they'll say, there was this unsolvable conflict, you're
:08:48. > :08:52.came in, within five months, they had a ceasefire and they left. It's
:08:53. > :08:58.are the template. Well, that's a victory for everybody in that sense,
:08:59. > :09:02.we now have a cessation of hostility. You think it's a victory
:09:03. > :09:08.for everyone then? The war coming to an end, which it has done now, it
:09:09. > :09:12.can restart, but the fact it's stopped is enormous benefit. And the
:09:13. > :09:17.fact that there is now a peace process happening and the two sides
:09:18. > :09:21.are beginning to start those negotiations, that's a positive for
:09:22. > :09:28.everybody. Do you think the West owes Russia on this? Do you think
:09:29. > :09:33.there's a sense of gratitude? If everyone had been putting their
:09:34. > :09:38.national priorities to one side and all the states in the region and all
:09:39. > :09:41.the powers, the West and the Russians, have been putting the
:09:42. > :09:45.common interest at the top of the agenda, we'd be a lot further
:09:46. > :09:49.forward than we are now. However, we've got to a place where there's
:09:50. > :09:55.now a cessation of hostilities. My view is that it's quite important to
:09:56. > :10:00.get the focus of the Syrian-Arab army and Free Syrian Army not
:10:01. > :10:05.glouring at each other whilst peace negotiations take place. But let's
:10:06. > :10:11.engage them in taking the territory back from Isil and they can begin
:10:12. > :10:15.jointly a narrative of Syria re-establishing control from the
:10:16. > :10:22.jihadist extremists. Do you think Putin has hit in at all to the Isis
:10:23. > :10:27.strength? I think, first of all, Russia has been integral into the
:10:28. > :10:32.process of moving the cessation of violence along. It's been on
:10:33. > :10:35.Russia's terms. That's the difficulty for the West. It is about
:10:36. > :10:39.putting national interests aside. But Russia hasn't in the same way
:10:40. > :10:45.it's advocating everyone else should. It went in under the pretext
:10:46. > :10:52.of saying it was targeting Isis. It has targeted certain Isis strong
:10:53. > :10:56.holds. It has targeted alfuss a, but it has -- al-Nusra, but it has
:10:57. > :11:00.targeted opposition broadly. What does Britain do now then? Our policy
:11:01. > :11:06.was, frankly, unclear from the start. We encouraged the rebellion
:11:07. > :11:11.against Assad at the beginning. Then when the rebellion actually really
:11:12. > :11:17.took light, we then didn't weigh in with weapons and the kind of support
:11:18. > :11:21.- We were too slow? The issue is whether we were ever prepared to do
:11:22. > :11:24.that in the first place. I don't think we should have been or would
:11:25. > :11:32.have been. We weren't, as it turned out. The consequence was we lured,
:11:33. > :11:37.in that sense, the people represented by the now Free Syrian
:11:38. > :11:42.Army onto the punch. Assad and the people are fighting for their lives
:11:43. > :11:45.and they've fought brutally to survive against the threat they see
:11:46. > :11:54.coming their way. Part of this is our responsibility. Sarah, do you
:11:55. > :11:58.see a window in here for Russia to re-enter, if Bashar al-Assad doesn't
:11:59. > :12:04.do what he wants? Absolutely. They say they will maintain their bases
:12:05. > :12:09.in Syria. I think that is the re-entry if they need it. Is that a
:12:10. > :12:14.veiled threat or a support issue? It's a mixture of both. Russia's
:12:15. > :12:19.doing this to try and use its position to pressure Assad to
:12:20. > :12:22.negotiate, be constructive. Russia requested he be constructive at the
:12:23. > :12:25.negotiations. Today we saw the Syrian government isn't be
:12:26. > :12:29.constructive on this one sticking point. In some ways, it is useful
:12:30. > :12:32.for the process, particularly for the West. It's something the West
:12:33. > :12:36.can't leverage. Thank you very much. Syria, of course, has not
:12:37. > :12:38.contained its crisis within the country or even
:12:39. > :12:40.within the Middle East. Today, the starkest visual reminder
:12:41. > :12:43.of how that civil war has shifted an entire population,
:12:44. > :12:46.refugees and migrants wading through the freezing waters
:12:47. > :12:49.of a Greek river to cross the border with Macedonia, after authorities
:12:50. > :12:51.there have forbidden their entry. Many - some with toddlers -
:12:52. > :12:54.had marched for hours along muddy paths to enter the swollen river
:12:55. > :12:59.in a bid to get around One photographer, who witnessed
:13:00. > :13:05.the exodus, suggested as many Well, this evening, I spoke
:13:06. > :13:10.to the Dutch Foreign Minister, Holland currently has
:13:11. > :13:15.the presidency of the EU Council. I asked him what Europe's response
:13:16. > :13:22.to the crisis should be. The imperative is
:13:23. > :13:30.first and foremost... And that's why I know that the Greek
:13:31. > :13:33.government is together with the Macedonians trying to find
:13:34. > :13:36.a solution and if people actually go to the possibility
:13:37. > :13:38.for camps in Greece. But they are leaving
:13:39. > :13:40.those camps, the camps aren't leaving, people
:13:41. > :13:42.want to leave the camps. Yes, and that's why it's
:13:43. > :13:46.so important that this system we have right now is stopped
:13:47. > :13:50.and we go to a system of voluntary relocation, that is the only
:13:51. > :13:52.way to make this dismal Just explain, is it
:13:53. > :13:58.wrong to see Slovenia I don't think it's a matter
:13:59. > :14:05.of right and wrong and these countries have obligations
:14:06. > :14:08.under international law, in the context of international
:14:09. > :14:10.humanitarian law. It's fairly clear that
:14:11. > :14:14.people don't want to stay in those countries,
:14:15. > :14:16.they want to go to destinations like Germany, Sweden,
:14:17. > :14:19.the Netherlands. We have seen that
:14:20. > :14:22.that route in itself leads to an endless flow
:14:23. > :14:25.which is not controllable. Which basically leads to this
:14:26. > :14:28.enormous sense that the European population feels it
:14:29. > :14:32.is not under control. But a very clear signal has two B,
:14:33. > :14:41.do they shut the Borders and stop -- to be, do they shut those borders
:14:42. > :14:49.and stop the trafficking, stop the roots and take the pain or keep the
:14:50. > :14:53.borders open? The way we have seen the countries of Austria and others
:14:54. > :14:57.carrying out the so-called Schengen Agreement, that doesn't work. We
:14:58. > :15:02.have to work with external borders of the Schengen Agreement and
:15:03. > :15:05.voluntary resettlement in Europe. The present system doesn't work.
:15:06. > :15:07.Forgive me but Holland can take the lead,
:15:08. > :15:09.you have the Council Presidency, isn't it
:15:10. > :15:12.time to stop saying, we don't know if it is right
:15:13. > :15:15.or wrong and say, we know that this is right and that's
:15:16. > :15:19.what's going wrong at the moment, there is no leadership at all.
:15:20. > :15:23.Well, I think if I may contradict you, I agree
:15:24. > :15:27.with you and being in this position of trying to find consensus
:15:28. > :15:35.among 28 countries of which some are not taking any migrants at all,
:15:36. > :15:37.or not taking Muslims and others are very hospitable and receive
:15:38. > :15:48.It is our role to get the 28 countries together and we can be
:15:49. > :15:52.cynical about it but now with the plan that has finally
:15:53. > :15:54.worked out on the responsibility of Greece and the Balkan countries
:15:55. > :15:56.but also countries like Germany and the Netherlands,
:15:57. > :15:59.we are working towards a system that makes much more sense.
:16:00. > :16:02.Tell me how the Dutch government views the British question of EU
:16:03. > :16:14.We are pleased that under our presidency and with the negotiations
:16:15. > :16:18.at least there has been made a deal and I think it is in the interests
:16:19. > :16:20.of all of the European countries, which takes seriously the concerns
:16:21. > :16:26.Are plans being made in the case of a Brexit?
:16:27. > :16:29.Anybody who tells you they know what will happen knows more
:16:30. > :16:34.Everything has to be renegotiated between the UK
:16:35. > :16:36.and the European Union.
:16:37. > :16:38.On the basis of unanimity in the rest of Europe
:16:39. > :16:45.But it's up to the British people to decide.
:16:46. > :16:47.Do you think a Brexit would harm the body
:16:48. > :17:00.I know that it is in our interests at the
:17:01. > :17:04.We are living in a world which is unstable,
:17:05. > :17:06.in which we have a lot of competition, internationally,
:17:07. > :17:12.Of course Europe will survive after a Brexit.
:17:13. > :17:14.But it is a loss to Europe if it would happen,
:17:15. > :17:21.For some people, George Osborne represents everything that's
:17:22. > :17:29.He's rich, privileged and never had a proper job outside Westminster.
:17:30. > :17:31.He's also, say his critics, overly fond of minutely strategising
:17:32. > :17:33.the political embarrassment of his enemies.
:17:34. > :17:36.But to his fans, he's responsible for many of this Government's
:17:37. > :17:37.proudest achievements and masterminded the Conservatives'
:17:38. > :17:43.On Wednesday, he will deliver his eighth Budget,
:17:44. > :17:46.which if the EU referendum goes against him, could prove
:17:47. > :17:48.So what do we know about George Osborne?
:17:49. > :18:01.For someone who has been in the job for so long, George Osborne is
:18:02. > :18:06.surrounded by a surprising amount of uncertainty. He carries it around
:18:07. > :18:13.with him like an ever present Budget box. For a start the economic signs
:18:14. > :18:17.are not good. He is also constrained by the politics of the referendum.
:18:18. > :18:21.Then there is his own future and what happens when his friend and
:18:22. > :18:25.partner David Cameron steps down from the premiership? My view is
:18:26. > :18:29.that if David Cameron said he was going to be Prime Minister for
:18:30. > :18:33.another five years the happiest person would be George Osborne
:18:34. > :18:37.because he believes David Cameron does the job very well and while
:18:38. > :18:40.David Cameron is in power George Osborne has a share and he is
:18:41. > :18:46.pragmatic enough to know that that is valuable to him. As one of the
:18:47. > :18:52.architects of a surprise election victory George Osborne might now
:18:53. > :18:55.have expected to be basking in the appreciation of a grateful party,
:18:56. > :19:00.however that is not how politics works. Some of his MPs are a little
:19:01. > :19:04.wary of George Osborne, others are suspicious regarding him as perhaps
:19:05. > :19:14.not even a proper conservative at all. His pet project, HS2, certainly
:19:15. > :19:17.isn't an obviously conservative one, costing ?50 billion and ripping
:19:18. > :19:23.through the Tory shires in the process. Nor is raising the minimum
:19:24. > :19:29.wage. There are other criticisms too, bubbling up all too readily
:19:30. > :19:32.from Conservative MPs, he is too fond of political intrigue and
:19:33. > :19:36.calculation. George Osborne has certainly been mastering the trade
:19:37. > :19:41.of politics his entire adult life, in every office he has worked, he
:19:42. > :19:46.could clearly hear Big Ben through an open window. IOS thought he
:19:47. > :19:49.should do something other than politics before the House of Commons
:19:50. > :19:58.but he is enormously thoughtful and a good tactical judge. If you talk
:19:59. > :20:03.to George the -- he seldom says something that isn't worth listening
:20:04. > :20:07.to. The Conservative Party were deep into a decade-long nervous breakdown
:20:08. > :20:13.over Europe and an attempt to reboot the squabbling party John Major
:20:14. > :20:21.appointed the affable but accident prone Jeremy Handley. As the party
:20:22. > :20:25.chairman. A new researcher, fresh out of Oxford. The day after George
:20:26. > :20:32.Osborne was filmed in front of Central office the parties fortune
:20:33. > :20:35.nosedived, Labour elected a charismatic leader and Osborne was
:20:36. > :20:41.dispatched to Blackpool to observe in the flesh this mortal threat to
:20:42. > :20:46.the Conservatives' chances of holding onto power. In 1994 and a
:20:47. > :20:49.Labour Party conference George was there for the Conservatives and I
:20:50. > :20:55.was therefore a think tank and we were sat next to each other when
:20:56. > :20:59.Tony Blair made his great speech, abolishing Klaus 4. Afterwards we
:21:00. > :21:02.went for a drink and talked about what we saw and agreed that the
:21:03. > :21:06.Conservative Party would never get back into power until it coped with
:21:07. > :21:13.the fact that Tony Blair was serious about making Labour new Labour. Do
:21:14. > :21:18.you still think the joke is a good idea on the first page? Definitely.
:21:19. > :21:23.George Osborne was highly valued as a speech writer. His seat in
:21:24. > :21:29.Parliament meant he could give as well as write speeches and it open
:21:30. > :21:32.up the higher rungs of politics. After the election defeat Michael
:21:33. > :21:38.Howard gave him an extraordinary promotion to Shadow Chancellor when
:21:39. > :21:46.he was still only 33. There is a bit of a gamble in George, you know, he
:21:47. > :21:51.is a relation of Aspinall. And he took the view that up against the
:21:52. > :21:57.Colossus of Gordon Brown, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, a
:21:58. > :22:02.formidable task. Gordon Brown had to be lucky every time and he only had
:22:03. > :22:06.to be lucky once. Osborne and Cameron were the crucial partnership
:22:07. > :22:13.at the top of the Conservative Party, for political journalists the
:22:14. > :22:16.comparisons were too inviting. The papers will say, have the
:22:17. > :22:20.Conservatives found their own brown and Blair? How much I will wait on
:22:21. > :22:25.you and George Osborne is that? It is probably fatal! They have always
:22:26. > :22:29.worked closely and effectively and I think that is one of their
:22:30. > :22:36.strengths, collectively, as a partnership. Unlike Brown and Blair
:22:37. > :22:41.there was never any doubt who George Osborne thought would make the
:22:42. > :22:46.better leader, and it was George Osborne who ran the Cameron
:22:47. > :22:51.leadership campaign on a Blair like modernising ticket. At the Cameron
:22:52. > :22:56.victory parade in December 2005 I spotted a jubilant George Osborne in
:22:57. > :22:59.the crowd. It's great, when we started in July I don't think we
:23:00. > :23:04.could have predicted such a great margin. To start with Osborne
:23:05. > :23:08.promised to match Labour spending plans but as the world economy began
:23:09. > :23:12.unravelling he had to ditch the policy in a hurry. In an attempt to
:23:13. > :23:16.understand what was going on he travelled to New York to meet big
:23:17. > :23:21.players of global finance face-to-face and I went with him to
:23:22. > :23:24.see how every meeting reinforced his conviction that the British economy
:23:25. > :23:29.was heading for a potentially catastrophic crash. What is very
:23:30. > :23:32.clear is that Britain is ill-prepared for this financial
:23:33. > :23:37.turmoil and its impact on the economy later this year. George
:23:38. > :23:41.Osborne became the austerities Chancellor that we know today, but
:23:42. > :23:46.he has never delivered his deficit reduction promises on time. The
:23:47. > :23:54.journey between number 11 Downing St and number ten is just a few yards
:23:55. > :23:58.but in politics it is capable of consuming careers. His critics say
:23:59. > :24:02.that he is obsessed with the transition and everything he does is
:24:03. > :24:07.couched in those terms but not so say his friends, if that was really
:24:08. > :24:11.is obsession he would have given up being Chancellor when the
:24:12. > :24:14.opportunity was presented to him after the last election. You take
:24:15. > :24:18.the success of the election and you park it in the hope to become leader
:24:19. > :24:23.of the party because you have not done anything controversial in the
:24:24. > :24:27.intervening period. The chances were the economy would not do well and
:24:28. > :24:31.you take risks and you do things, and that has happened. His decision
:24:32. > :24:38.was that he would be wasting potentially four years as a guide of
:24:39. > :24:41.the government, it is cautious but also a waste of the office. This
:24:42. > :24:48.week 's budget doesn't look like one where George Osborne will be able to
:24:49. > :24:52.do much, his radical pension reforms were dropped amid concern about
:24:53. > :24:55.angering swing voters and Conservative MPs in the run-up to
:24:56. > :25:00.the EU referendum. And depending on how the referendum goes, this budget
:25:01. > :25:06.could conceivably be George Osborne's last.
:25:07. > :25:08.Within the next 48 hours, Donald Trump may emerge
:25:09. > :25:09.as the Republican presidential candidate.
:25:10. > :25:11.This, after a weekend in which the frontrunner had
:25:12. > :25:13.to cancel several rallies, after violence broke out -
:25:14. > :25:16.scenes of chaos that don't appear to have dented his popularity.
:25:17. > :25:19.But tonight - on the eve of the next big electoral test -
:25:20. > :25:21.we ask about the policies of the other candidates.
:25:22. > :25:30.Could it be that he is the least conservative amongst them?
:25:31. > :25:33.We'll speak to George Bush's speechwriter, David Frum,
:25:34. > :25:37.who joins us live from Florida, tomorrow's biggest electoral
:25:38. > :26:08.Go back to Africa! This may be seen as the low point of the 2016
:26:09. > :26:12.election campaign but then again it may not, we still have a long way to
:26:13. > :26:19.go. Donald Trump doesn't seem to mind the violence at his own
:26:20. > :26:24.rallies. The guards are very gentle with him, he is smiling and
:26:25. > :26:30.laughing, I would like to punch him in the face, I tell you. What is it
:26:31. > :26:34.doing to his popularity? Well, his poll ratings seems to be improving
:26:35. > :26:41.on the back of all of this, doubling his lead over Marco Rubio. In
:26:42. > :26:45.Rubio's home state of Florida, the biggest electoral jewel of the race
:26:46. > :26:51.tomorrow. And he is strong everywhere else except Ohio, John
:26:52. > :26:56.Kasich's home state. Several of them are winner takes all, if as the
:26:57. > :27:00.polls predict he comes first he lands a significant number of
:27:01. > :27:06.delegates and adds them to his tally. Thank you, everybody. Even at
:27:07. > :27:10.this stage with Trump potentially hours away from securing the
:27:11. > :27:14.Republican presidential nomination, many feel they don't really know
:27:15. > :27:17.what policies the billionaire would espouse, he has been accused of
:27:18. > :27:24.flip-flopping. By the other candidates. Despite the eyebrow
:27:25. > :27:28.raising immigration talk it is easy to argue that the others lie to the
:27:29. > :27:34.right. Ted Cruz is an ideologue who wants to breath at the Iran deal,
:27:35. > :27:39.and end gay marriage and abortion rights and do away with gun control.
:27:40. > :27:45.Marco Rubio is often betrayed as the moderate, but sounds identical to
:27:46. > :27:49.Ted Cruz on the stump. He wants to tear up diplomatic softening to Cuba
:27:50. > :27:56.as well as the Iran deal and votes against abortion even in cases of
:27:57. > :27:58.rape. Then there is John Kasich, sometimes betrayed as the
:27:59. > :28:05.bleeding-heart candidate. Take a closer look at his voting, far to
:28:06. > :28:10.the right on reproductive rights. They are all against Obama care, of
:28:11. > :28:13.course. Donald Trump for all of the bluster may be the least
:28:14. > :28:17.conservative of the candidates, America just has to decide whether
:28:18. > :28:21.that is a good or bad thing. Fascinating. Joining me now is David
:28:22. > :28:25.Frum. and from Florida, that key swing
:28:26. > :28:33.state, writer and commentator, Great to have you here. I'm not sure
:28:34. > :28:39.how Gaelic you out of the country at a time like this, David. -- I'm not
:28:40. > :28:44.sure how they allowed you out. If Donald Trump loses Ohio even if he
:28:45. > :28:49.wins Florida the contest is open. He will obviously have a tremendous
:28:50. > :28:53.gust of wind at his back but it remains mathematically possible if
:28:54. > :28:56.he loses Ohio that he would be short of an outright majority of
:28:57. > :28:59.Republican delegates and at the convention anything can happen
:29:00. > :29:03.because the delegates will be there and won't want to nominate him if
:29:04. > :29:07.they could avoid it. Isn't it odd that there isn't a second-place
:29:08. > :29:13.candidate? One week we thought it was Marco Rubio, the other Ted Cruz.
:29:14. > :29:18.If there was a broken convention it would not necessarily be Ted Cruz
:29:19. > :29:22.but something different? Ted Cruz is a strong second-place candidate but
:29:23. > :29:27.you are right, evil need to understand this, when you see the
:29:28. > :29:31.numbers of delegates that does not refer to actual people but slots. --
:29:32. > :29:36.people need to understand this. The power to appoint people. Actual
:29:37. > :29:39.delegates are selected later usually by state parties and they are not
:29:40. > :29:44.necessarily beholden to Donald Trump, they make the party go, local
:29:45. > :29:48.activists and donors and they have different views about the future of
:29:49. > :29:54.the party from less committed people, less committed Republican
:29:55. > :29:59.formatter casting votes for Donald Trump. We have talked about the
:30:00. > :30:05.anger and emotion of this campaign, how do you define a trump voter?
:30:06. > :30:12.Well, according to the polls, the Trump voter is white, less educated,
:30:13. > :30:18.and angry. It's an anger that has been fed for the last ten or 20
:30:19. > :30:27.years from right-wing talk radio but also from left-wing demagogues, as
:30:28. > :30:31.you mentioned in the piece before. He is more moderate than the other
:30:32. > :30:36.Republican candidates, and there is an awful lot that would appeal to
:30:37. > :30:42.Democrats. The part that appeals to Conservative working-class voters is
:30:43. > :30:44.quite frankly the racial part, the anger at Muslims, Mexicans, and so
:30:45. > :30:56.on. You once called Trump lizard brained
:30:57. > :31:02.- You have it wrong, no. Tell me. I said that Trump was acting out of
:31:03. > :31:09.his lizard brain. I'm sorry, I can hear myself talking. I said that
:31:10. > :31:15.Trump was acting out of his lizard brain. Each of us has a lizard brain
:31:16. > :31:20.at the base of our skull that controls reflective actions like
:31:21. > :31:25.fight-or-flight, hunger and so on. He was, he hasn't been dealing and
:31:26. > :31:31.appealing to people on the basis of thought or reason. He's been
:31:32. > :31:34.appealing to people on the basis of their fears, the emotions and
:31:35. > :31:39.reactions that come out of their lizard brains. David, one of the
:31:40. > :31:44.reasons I introduced you at the beginning as a speech writer for
:31:45. > :31:48.George Bush, because in a sense whatever candidate emerges is a
:31:49. > :31:56.product of the last one. Do you think Trump is a product of Obama?
:31:57. > :32:00.No Trump is a product of Bush. I don't think Freudian psychoanalysis
:32:01. > :32:06.is the way to approach actual people, but as a literary advice
:32:07. > :32:10.it's very powerful. Your viewers who remember, the theory was the patient
:32:11. > :32:16.suffered a trauma. The patient dealt with the trauma through repression,
:32:17. > :32:19.but the repressed always returns and expresses itself in hysterical
:32:20. > :32:24.behaviour. Who's got the mental illness? The Bush years were the
:32:25. > :32:30.trauma of the Republican Party. We have not been able to talk candidly
:32:31. > :32:35.about what went right and wrong. We have a set of responses - he kept us
:32:36. > :32:42.safe. What do we mean? How do we feel about Iraq and Katrina and how
:32:43. > :32:45.do we feel about Medicaire? There have been a stereotype list of
:32:46. > :32:53.things to say. I like everything about George W Bush except he spent
:32:54. > :32:59.too much at home. So, in the vacancy created by this inability to talk,
:33:00. > :33:03.Jeb Bush thought, maybe the party is ready for another Bush, a third
:33:04. > :33:08.Bush. This enormous pile of money was gathered and this left and least
:33:09. > :33:15.articulate of all the Bushes set forward and it was catastrophe.
:33:16. > :33:23.Trump has stepped into the post-Jeb environment with, in which all the
:33:24. > :33:25.establishment money - So this is a direct failing of the Republican
:33:26. > :33:30.Party to get to grips with what happened to it? Donald Trump,
:33:31. > :33:33.somebody as obviously fraudulent as Donald Trump, could not have a
:33:34. > :33:37.political career in a party that was well. This is not a well party.
:33:38. > :33:41.That's why there's an opportunity for him. The interesting thing,
:33:42. > :33:46.perhaps, is we've got this extraordinary situation where a lot
:33:47. > :33:52.of voters don't like the candidate of their own party naturally. Will
:33:53. > :33:56.we see cross-dressing here, the Democrats that can't bear Hilary and
:33:57. > :34:02.the Republicans that can't bear Trump? Yes, I do. Can I say about
:34:03. > :34:05.David Frum, over the years, he has been very courageous, one of the few
:34:06. > :34:10.Republicans who have been willing to speak the truth about the problems
:34:11. > :34:15.in that party. Right now, I'd like to speak some truth about some
:34:16. > :34:20.problems in the Democratic Party. These left-wing protesters, who are
:34:21. > :34:25.going to Trump rallies and causing this trouble are only strengthening
:34:26. > :34:33.Donald Trump. He is the master of disaster. As long as the country
:34:34. > :34:36.seems chaotic and anarchic, he will benefit. I believe that no matter
:34:37. > :34:41.what the polls are showing right now, he has a very strong chance
:34:42. > :34:46.against Hillary Clinton next fall, which should terrify all of us. So
:34:47. > :34:53.your message to those protesters would be - don't protest? Stay home.
:34:54. > :35:00.Go door to door, knock on doors and talk to people. Be positive. Be
:35:01. > :35:08.creative. Every time - I've been to these Trump rallies and the crowd
:35:09. > :35:13.loves it when, you know, some poor left-winger starts screaming and
:35:14. > :35:20.Trump says, "Get them out of here!" Have we reached the low point of
:35:21. > :35:25.this campaign? Oh, no! Right. Not as long as Donald Trump is breathing.
:35:26. > :35:29.It's going to get lower. Joe's point about staying home, one of the
:35:30. > :35:33.sicknesses of American politics, and one of the sicknesses with Donald
:35:34. > :35:37.Trump is the break down in institutions. If you feel that the
:35:38. > :35:40.idea, this is a Facebook era idea, if you feel strongly about something
:35:41. > :35:45.what you do is go somewhere and express your indig nation. If you
:35:46. > :35:50.feel strongly about something, get 25 of your friends registered to
:35:51. > :35:58.vote. Drive people to the polls. Raise money for the candidate of
:35:59. > :36:01.your choice. Those are pro-institutional actions. One of
:36:02. > :36:05.the things that has enabled the Trumps is every time we saw, we have
:36:06. > :36:09.a reform, all of our reforms are based on weakening and degrading our
:36:10. > :36:13.institutions to make it more impossible for parties not to do
:36:14. > :36:15.self-destructive things. I could go on for another three hours, thanks
:36:16. > :36:16.very much. In the British prison system,
:36:17. > :36:19.a child murderer is the lowest But what if there hasn't
:36:20. > :36:24.been a killing at all, but the child died of an accident
:36:25. > :36:26.or by natural causes? The question is important
:36:27. > :36:28.because one of Britain's leading defence experts in the hotly
:36:29. > :36:31.contested area of shaken baby syndrome has been severely
:36:32. > :36:33.criticised by the doctors' A medical practitioners tribunal
:36:34. > :36:39.ruled on Friday that Dr Waney Squier gave misleading and dishonest
:36:40. > :36:42.evidence, when she acted as an expert witness in six cases
:36:43. > :36:45.involving parents accused of harming One of the country's very
:36:46. > :36:49.few neuropathologists, she may now be barred
:36:50. > :36:51.from practising. But her defenders call what she's
:36:52. > :37:04.experienced a witch hunt. Pathologist Waney Squire has had the
:37:05. > :37:10.book thrown at her, a General Medical Council panel, a retired
:37:11. > :37:13.Wing Commander, former Merseyside copper, and retired geriatric
:37:14. > :37:18.psychiatrist found her evidence to be outrageous and untruthful, that
:37:19. > :37:26.she had misrepresented and cherry picked and said, "You must have real
:37:27. > :37:30.aislesed you were being dishonest." Either Waney Squire is a bad Doctor
:37:31. > :37:36.Who faces being struck off for lying to the courts, or she's a Galileo
:37:37. > :37:42.for the 21st century, the victim of a great scientific injustice. In
:37:43. > :37:48.plain English, are you saying that shaken baby syndrome is rubbish? Ah,
:37:49. > :37:54.yes, I am. And I think we've known that from the very outset. But there
:37:55. > :37:57.are many doctors, senior doctors, who gave evidence against you, who
:37:58. > :38:03.don't agree with that at all. That's correct. I've looked in great detail
:38:04. > :38:07.at the literature on shaken baby syndrome. I've gone through the
:38:08. > :38:12.whole history and read as much as I can. I have found nothing which
:38:13. > :38:15.satisfies me that there's any scientific foundation for it.
:38:16. > :38:19.They're calling you a liar effectively. They are. And what's
:38:20. > :38:24.your reaction to that? As I say, I gave my evidence to the best of my
:38:25. > :38:27.ability. I tried to be as truthful and honest as this work demands.
:38:28. > :38:35.It's serious work and I take it seriously. Shaken baby syndrome is
:38:36. > :38:38.hotly disputed. Its supporters believe swelling of the brain,
:38:39. > :38:43.bleeding over the surface of the brain and in the eyes must have been
:38:44. > :38:54.caused by the baby being vie lently shaken. The syndrome's critics doubt
:38:55. > :38:57.it exists. Including a former defence lawyer Campbell Malon.
:38:58. > :39:05.Shaken baby syndrome is a fact - true or false? I'm not a scientist.
:39:06. > :39:09.But the Court of Appeal held in 2005 that shaken baby syndrome was a
:39:10. > :39:20.hypothesis, was a theory, not a fact. In 2007, Newsnight told the
:39:21. > :39:27.story of Susan Holdsworth. Dr Squire, one of the country's few
:39:28. > :39:32.neuropangologists was asked to examine the evidence against her.
:39:33. > :39:36.The original trial had heard that Suzanne must have slammed Kyle
:39:37. > :39:40.against a banister. Suzanne said he suffered a fit. Patients who have
:39:41. > :39:46.epilepsy have scars in their brain and they act as a focus for the
:39:47. > :39:52.epileptic activity. Kyle had two abnormalities in the brain that
:39:53. > :40:01.would predispose him to seizures. And seizures can kill. As a result
:40:02. > :40:06.of the evidence, Susan Holds worth appealed and was found not guilty at
:40:07. > :40:14.retrial. I asked what she thought of the tribunal's verdict? I am
:40:15. > :40:21.disgusted in it. If it weren't for Waney Squires, I don't think I'd be
:40:22. > :40:28.here where I am now. We turned to Waney Squires for help. If she's not
:40:29. > :40:31.here any more, who, like people like me who are wrongly convicted, who
:40:32. > :40:35.are they going to turn to? The question at the heart of this
:40:36. > :40:42.argument is not who killed this baby, but was there a crime? As far
:40:43. > :40:46.as shaken baby syndrome is concerned Dr Squire has been a thorn in the
:40:47. > :40:51.side of the medical establishment, the Crown Prosecution Service and
:40:52. > :40:55.the Metropolitan Police. The Met's child abuse unit initiated the case
:40:56. > :41:01.against Dr Squire. In their view they had to. Child protection is
:41:02. > :41:04.paramount. My view is that having lost the scientific argument, having
:41:05. > :41:12.lost the legal argument, what they've done is to try and take the
:41:13. > :41:18.experts on an individual basis out of the argument. It seems to me that
:41:19. > :41:23.we, in the 21st century, have gone back to the days of the inquisition.
:41:24. > :41:26.In the future, when someone is accused of shaking a baby to death,
:41:27. > :41:34.on the science, who will defend them? I think it's a deeply
:41:35. > :41:38.troubling time because this is going to inhibit even further anybody who
:41:39. > :41:42.understands the science and who has a valid opinion to offer from
:41:43. > :41:48.stepping forward, for fear of also facing this kind of hearing. Dr
:41:49. > :41:54.Squire faces being struck off later this month. Despite all our
:41:55. > :42:01.scientific advances, the tragedy of unexplained invanity death stays
:42:02. > :42:04.with us. For Susan Holdsworth it isn't an academic issue. Without Dr
:42:05. > :42:15.Squire, she fears she might still be in prison.
:42:16. > :42:26.I felt like I had won the lottery. It was amazing, somebody what I
:42:27. > :42:35.never thought I would do. So if it wasn't like Waney Squires, that
:42:36. > :42:41.people like me could be still in prison. O
:42:42. > :42:48.Evan's here tomorrow. Until then, good night.