:00:00. > :00:07.If ever the words "get a grip" had a use, it's now.
:00:08. > :00:10.Three days after the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith,
:00:11. > :00:16.the Government's still trying to fight its way out of a corner.
:00:17. > :00:19.We will continue with this approach in full, because we are a modern,
:00:20. > :00:22.compassionate, one-nation Conservative Government
:00:23. > :00:25.and I commend this statement to the House.
:00:26. > :00:28.But it's been a day of retreat and discomfort.
:00:29. > :00:32.Will the Prime Minister give us an assurance that this will be
:00:33. > :00:37.the Chancellor of the Exchequer's last Budget?
:00:38. > :00:42.Education Secretary Nicky Morgan is with us to bring order
:00:43. > :00:50.We don't view Cuba as a threat to the United States.
:00:51. > :00:53.I hope that my visit here indicates the degree to which we're setting
:00:54. > :00:57.a new chapter in Cuban-American relations.
:00:58. > :01:00.President Obama goes to Cuba, but will his political foes at home
:01:01. > :01:04.permit him this foreign policy legacy?
:01:05. > :01:10.Will we still be bothering to tweet at 20?
:01:11. > :01:14.You are talking to a lot of people who are already converted
:01:15. > :01:17.to your cause, particularly for the left.
:01:18. > :01:27.Twitter is a very big echo chamber of conversations.
:01:28. > :01:34.If you haven't followed, there are essentially three threads
:01:35. > :01:40.A big U-turn on welfare cuts, which it has to be said,
:01:41. > :01:42.was announced in some confusion and ambiguity.
:01:43. > :01:47.A full-blown crisis of Government authority, with pervasive
:01:48. > :01:49.back-biting and negative briefing, and an appearance of disarray,
:01:50. > :01:52.all of which justifies those "Tories in turmoil" headlines.
:01:53. > :01:55.And thirdly, there's a drama concerning the personalities,
:01:56. > :01:58.in particular, Chancellor George Osborne's hopes of rising
:01:59. > :02:03.Let's start with him and the politics of this
:02:04. > :02:11.Here's our political editor, David Grossman.
:02:12. > :02:13.In that well-worn Westminster cliche, there is a hole
:02:14. > :02:16.in the Chancellor's Budget, but really, set
:02:17. > :02:18.in the context of total Government spending,
:02:19. > :02:24.There is a gaping void in the Government, or more
:02:25. > :02:27.specifically, the Chancellor's reputation.
:02:28. > :02:30.Labour managed to drag a minister to the Commons today to answer
:02:31. > :02:32.a question on this Budget disarray, but it wasn't the Chancellor,
:02:33. > :02:38.Does the Shadow Chancellor really want to talk
:02:39. > :02:52.The Government, though, has climbed down on not only 1. ?1.3 billion
:02:53. > :02:56.worth of disability benefit cuts, but also, to make sure it wins
:02:57. > :03:02.tomorrow's Budget vote, it's conceding Opposition amendments on
:03:03. > :03:07.VAT on tap upons and on -- tampons and on solar panels and insulation,
:03:08. > :03:09.putting the Government in possible conflict with the European
:03:10. > :03:14.Commission. The Budget has a big hole in it. It's up to the Prime
:03:15. > :03:18.Minister to persuade his great friend to either come here and
:03:19. > :03:22.explain how he's going to fill that hole or perhaps he should consider
:03:23. > :03:26.his position and look for something else to do, because clearly, he
:03:27. > :03:30.hasn't been very successful at producing a balanced Budget in the
:03:31. > :03:36.interests of everyone in this country, particularly those with
:03:37. > :03:40.disabilities. This was easily the worst weekend for the Government
:03:41. > :03:43.since the election. The departing Work and Pensions Secretary laying
:03:44. > :03:47.into the Government and the Chancellor in a round of interviews.
:03:48. > :03:51.Talk to enough Conservative MPs around this place and it becomes
:03:52. > :03:58.very clear that the disquiet in the party right now isn't about welfare
:03:59. > :04:01.per se. Indeed, many of Mr Osborne's and Mr Cameron's severest critics
:04:02. > :04:05.don't agree with Iain Duncan Smith on the matter. No, it's more about
:04:06. > :04:10.the way that those at the top of the Conservative Party treat those lower
:04:11. > :04:14.down, the allegation you constantly hear is they're too dismissive of
:04:15. > :04:19.those with traditional conservative views. There was still no sign of a
:04:20. > :04:23.Chancellor in Downing Street today. Instead the Prime Minister was
:04:24. > :04:30.leaving for the Commons to make a statement on last week's EU Summit,
:04:31. > :04:34.after apparently reacting with a four letter tirade at Iain Duncan
:04:35. > :04:39.Smith resignation last Friday, today he was complimentary about his
:04:40. > :04:41.former Cabinet colleague My right honourable friend contributed an
:04:42. > :04:45.enormous amount to the work of this Government and he can be proud of
:04:46. > :04:49.what he achieved. Mr Speaker, let me say this, this Government will
:04:50. > :04:51.continue to give the highest priority to improving the life
:04:52. > :04:58.chances of the poorest in our country. That tone was well received
:04:59. > :05:01.on the Conservative benches, where many are feeling bruised and even
:05:02. > :05:05.insulted, particularly by the way the Chancellor and the Prime
:05:06. > :05:09.Minister have treated Conservative advocates of leaving the EU. I don't
:05:10. > :05:13.wish to be critical of the Prime Minister. I think there's plenty of
:05:14. > :05:16.time to get this right. I think his judgment of the mood in the House
:05:17. > :05:20.today is a sign that he's perfectly able to get it right. He was very
:05:21. > :05:24.respectful of people who wish to leave the European Union. He
:05:25. > :05:28.understands our passion for a more democratic, freer country that can
:05:29. > :05:31.spend more of its own money. He just happens to think there are arguments
:05:32. > :05:35.on the other side. That's the tone he has to strike so that the party
:05:36. > :05:39.comes together easily after all the exertions of the referendum through
:05:40. > :05:43.to June. Another blow to George Osborne came from Iain Duncan Smith'
:05:44. > :05:48.replacement at work and pensions, Stephen Crabb. In confirming a halt
:05:49. > :05:53.to the planned disability benefit cuts, he took a swipe at Government
:05:54. > :05:56.by balance sheet. As the Prime Minister indicated on Friday, I can
:05:57. > :06:03.tell the House that we will not be going ahead with the changes to PIP
:06:04. > :06:09.that had been put forward. I am absolutely clear, Mr Speaker, that a
:06:10. > :06:12.compassionate and farewell fair system should not just be about
:06:13. > :06:16.numbers. Behind every statistic there is a human being. And
:06:17. > :06:21.perhaps... Perhaps sometimes in Government we forget that. There
:06:22. > :06:24.was, though, some confusion as to whether the Government was now
:06:25. > :06:28.abandoning all welfare cuts for the rest of the Parliament. The
:06:29. > :06:32.Chancellor-shaped hole in today's events will be filled tomorrow by
:06:33. > :06:36.the man himself, who will speak in defence of his Budget and his
:06:37. > :06:39.reputation. Something to look forward to.
:06:40. > :06:41.Well, the Education Secretary, Nicky Morgan, is here to help us
:06:42. > :06:44.understand what's going on in her Government.
:06:45. > :06:54.Very good evening to you. Goning. Good evening. Do you think the
:06:55. > :06:57.Government lost sight of compassionate conservatism agenda in
:06:58. > :07:00.the last couple of years, that it became too much about saving money,
:07:01. > :07:05.at any expense, even from vulnerable people? No, I don't think that at
:07:06. > :07:09.all. Certainly not in my area of reg indication reform, where we -- of
:07:10. > :07:14.education reform. Where we are making sure that every child,
:07:15. > :07:19.regardless of birth or background, gets the education they're entitled
:07:20. > :07:23.to. Not in terms of the Treasury, or in terms of the manifesto. One of
:07:24. > :07:27.the biggest things has been about taking people out of paying income
:07:28. > :07:31.tax. 31 million people are paying less tax now than in 2010. The
:07:32. > :07:36.introduction of the national living wage, all of those things and many
:07:37. > :07:40.other reforms announcements demonstrate that we are, as the
:07:41. > :07:42.Prime Minister said at the end of his statement, a modern,
:07:43. > :07:47.compassionate Conservative Government. I want you to look at a
:07:48. > :07:51.graph. This is from the IFS. On the left the incomes of the poorest and
:07:52. > :07:54.how they're going to change with tax and benefit cuts over this
:07:55. > :07:58.Parliament. On the right, the incomes of the richest. As you go
:07:59. > :08:03.from left to right, the poorest to the richest and the big downward
:08:04. > :08:10.bars are the percentage losses in net income. What you basically see
:08:11. > :08:14.is that the poorest are losing 5% to 8% or more of their net income. The
:08:15. > :08:17.top people on the right, the richest, are losing almost nothing,
:08:18. > :08:22.with the proposed changes. What do you make this afternoon graph? I
:08:23. > :08:27.think that tells one story in terms of the changes, but actually there's
:08:28. > :08:31.another graph, which I think is very important in the distribution
:08:32. > :08:39.analysis impact published alongside the red book, which shows the the
:08:40. > :08:43.impact of the different per centiles. The richest are paying
:08:44. > :08:46.more in terms of making contribution to filling the black hole left by
:08:47. > :08:50.the last Labour Government. Absolutely, correct to say that the
:08:51. > :08:54.pattern would have been different if we had taken other periods of
:08:55. > :08:58.coalition or Labour Government measures. This is the 15 to 20, this
:08:59. > :09:02.is this Parliament, this is the pure Conservative Government. I'm
:09:03. > :09:05.wondering whether there was a - did you know, for example, that the poor
:09:06. > :09:09.were bearing the brunt this Parliament and the rich bearing none
:09:10. > :09:12.of it? It's the first time I've seen the graph. I haven't seen the
:09:13. > :09:15.workings behind it. It is something that I do look at very carefully,
:09:16. > :09:21.every time having been in the Treasury, every time a red book and
:09:22. > :09:25.OBR is published. The fact is by the end of this Parliament, the top 20%
:09:26. > :09:31.in this country will be paying more in tax than the other 80% put
:09:32. > :09:35.together. I don't want to get stuck in statistics. This graph describes
:09:36. > :09:39.what's happened in this Parliament. In effect, shouldn't we worry that
:09:40. > :09:44.you, in the Cabinet, nodding through these things, have not seen the most
:09:45. > :09:48.basic distributional analysis of what the Government's plans are for
:09:49. > :09:51.this Parliament. I agree you can go back to other parliaments and the
:09:52. > :09:54.picture is more progressive, but this is what you're planning for
:09:55. > :09:58.this Parliament. It was never described that was. It was never set
:09:59. > :10:04.out as a now we want to give back to the rich, but is that we're all in
:10:05. > :10:09.it together? I haven't seen the detailed analysis that goes
:10:10. > :10:12.alongside this. I look carefully at the distributional impact analysis
:10:13. > :10:16.published by the Treasury alongside the red book last week, the issue
:10:17. > :10:20.about people at the top paying more, the top 1% paying 28% of income tax.
:10:21. > :10:24.But look the broader point you're making - These are the changes, I
:10:25. > :10:27.appreciate that, but these are the changes. This is what your
:10:28. > :10:35.Government is planning for this Parliament. Are you happy to call
:10:36. > :10:39.that one nation conservatism, compassionate conserve Tim --
:10:40. > :10:43.conservatism, we're all in it together, up to 8% cuts in the
:10:44. > :10:47.bottom and slight increase in the people in the richest. I don't know
:10:48. > :10:51.because you haven't shown me this chart before I have sat here on live
:10:52. > :10:55.TV. I don't know how this takes account of the things like the
:10:56. > :11:02.raising of the income tax threshold. It includes that. I could have put
:11:03. > :11:06.the living wage in. That is a huge step for a xapgsate Conservative
:11:07. > :11:09.Government in terms of helping people to have a living national
:11:10. > :11:16.wage. It doesn't look much different if you put that in. They all look
:11:17. > :11:18.like this. You, the minister, Secretary of State, don't even know
:11:19. > :11:22.that's what the Government is, because you're not presented with
:11:23. > :11:27.that data. I've made it clear to you that I look at the distributional
:11:28. > :11:30.ill pact analysis, as I'm sure do colleagues, that's published
:11:31. > :11:34.alongside the red book. I don't study the IFS figures. I'm looking
:11:35. > :11:39.at the figures produced by the Treasury and the statistic that the
:11:40. > :11:45.top 20% are paying more in tax, the top 1% paying 28% of income tax. We
:11:46. > :11:49.made very clear last year, in the general election campaign, that yes,
:11:50. > :11:54.we were elected to continue to put a balance back in the economy, to pay
:11:55. > :11:59.down the deficit, to eliminate the deficit, pay down the debt. We are
:12:00. > :12:02.not going to do that off the backs of the most vulnerable in society.
:12:03. > :12:09.Actually Iain Duncan Smith was right to say, wasn't he, that actually the
:12:10. > :12:13.welfare cuts were being made to cut capital gains tax, 600 million, to
:12:14. > :12:19.cut tax rates for the people around the higher rate threshold who will
:12:20. > :12:23.pay less tax, less 40% tax. That's what the pay squeeze was about, not
:12:24. > :12:27.deficit reduction at all. No, it wasn't about that. There is an issue
:12:28. > :12:30.with the introduction of the independence payments and the way
:12:31. > :12:34.that they have worked. We were elected as a Government to bring
:12:35. > :12:39.control to welfare spending. I think that's still what people very much
:12:40. > :12:44.expect us to do. They also expect us to get investment from companies for
:12:45. > :12:47.people to be recognised if they are making investments and they're
:12:48. > :12:51.employing people. That's also what we've got to do. One of the great
:12:52. > :12:55.achievements of the last Government and this current one is the
:12:56. > :12:58.continuing growth in the number of jobs, two million more people
:12:59. > :13:01.employed. That doesn't just happen overnight. That happens from people
:13:02. > :13:05.making investment decisions to come here to employ. Some of those
:13:06. > :13:10.people, as well, who have been helped back to work, by, I might
:13:11. > :13:13.add, Iain Duncan Smith's reforms when he was secretary for work and
:13:14. > :13:18.pensions, a record he can be enormously proud of. On Thursday on
:13:19. > :13:23.Question Time, you described the PIP changes as we've got to finish our
:13:24. > :13:28.consultation. Yes. Did you misspeak or had you been told to say that?
:13:29. > :13:32.They did look like policy in the Budget then you turned them into
:13:33. > :13:36.consultation on the Thursday night. No, I didn't misspeak. What I was
:13:37. > :13:39.saying was that we still had more conversations to have about those
:13:40. > :13:44.changes with members of Parliament, with disability groups, with those
:13:45. > :13:49.who were affected. Yes, the formal consultation had finished, but there
:13:50. > :13:54.was - But they were in the Budget book as policy and then they were
:13:55. > :13:57.consultation. I mean, this is the second Budget actually George
:13:58. > :14:02.Osborne has given, because last year he put tax credit changes that had
:14:03. > :14:06.to be u turned. Does he not take a big knock to his reputation that
:14:07. > :14:11.basically every time he announces a Budget we now expect some of it is
:14:12. > :14:15.going to be withdrawn, or some of it will be described as consultation a
:14:16. > :14:20.day later? There wasn't a consensus around the proposed changes to the
:14:21. > :14:25.personal independence payments, not to tax credits last Autumn. Actually
:14:26. > :14:29.I think it's a measure that the Government list beings to what
:14:30. > :14:33.people are -- listens to what people are saying and makes changes. The
:14:34. > :14:37.Chancellor took on a broken economy, not only are there two million more
:14:38. > :14:41.people employed, the deficit will be down two thirds at the start of the
:14:42. > :14:43.next financial year, we're the fastest growing economy in the
:14:44. > :14:47.developed world. These are significant achievements. The only
:14:48. > :14:50.reason we could spend 1. ?1.6 billion more on schools last week is
:14:51. > :14:53.because we have that strong economy. That's the same for colleagues
:14:54. > :14:57.across Government in terms of their departments. Those are big
:14:58. > :15:02.achievements of this Chancellor. Just to clarify, last point, to
:15:03. > :15:07.clarify, where there was confusion earlier this evening, Stephen Crabb,
:15:08. > :15:11.new DWP secretary says no plans to change welfare. Most of us thought
:15:12. > :15:16.he meant this Parliament. Is that how you interpripted it? Yes, I
:15:17. > :15:19.think what he's saying is that there are no planned changes. There are
:15:20. > :15:24.changes that have been set out to welfare previously. Already, yes.
:15:25. > :15:27.Which have to work their way through, like the full
:15:28. > :15:33.implementation of universal credit. Obviously, I think any of your
:15:34. > :15:38.viewers watching would say it would be madness to - It could happen but
:15:39. > :15:42.no plans. No plans. If everything goes to plan, more or less we've had
:15:43. > :15:47.all the welfare cuts we're going to have. That is my understanding.
:15:48. > :15:52.That's your understanding? If you don't understand, you're in the
:15:53. > :15:56.Cabinet! How are we meant to understand if it's not clear. This
:15:57. > :15:59.is the day the whole thing was meant to be resolved, you're fighting
:16:00. > :16:04.back. The new Secretary of State for work and pensions was very clear.
:16:05. > :16:08.There are no planned changes to welfare in this Parliament. We've
:16:09. > :16:13.announced some changes. I think Stephen Crabb will be a fantastic -
:16:14. > :16:15.it's a shame to have lost Iain, but Stephen will be a good Work and
:16:16. > :16:20.Pensions Secretary. Thank you. Well, you may blame the problems
:16:21. > :16:22.the Government is facing today on its own manifesto
:16:23. > :16:25.from the general election last year. It wasn't a suicide note exactly,
:16:26. > :16:27.more a guide to shooting yourself Well, those twin ambitions
:16:28. > :16:32.of running a budget surplus and cutting ?12 billion in welfare,
:16:33. > :16:35.so useful at election time in making Labour look weak,
:16:36. > :16:37.have proved awkward in power. The words petard and
:16:38. > :16:44.hoist come to mind. So, let's focus a little more
:16:45. > :16:47.on where we now stand on welfare, and how far Iain Duncan Smith got
:16:48. > :16:50.in delivering the Government's aims. Here's our policy
:16:51. > :17:01.editor, Chris Cook. Working age welfare has been cut
:17:02. > :17:05.time and again since 2010. Protests against the cuts to disability Ben
:17:06. > :17:10.have become a regular occurrence. Yesterday, the now resigned Work and
:17:11. > :17:15.Pensions Secretary seemed to agree with the placard wavers. So why is
:17:16. > :17:19.it that George Osborne keeps going back to the welfare budget? He
:17:20. > :17:24.really has few choices, he has boxed himself into that position. First of
:17:25. > :17:27.all, he said he would like to run a budget surplus in 2019, which would
:17:28. > :17:33.require spending cuts or tax rises to achieve, but he has said he
:17:34. > :17:38.doesn't want tax rises, in fact he has pencilled in some tax cuts. And
:17:39. > :17:44.there are some budget he won't touch, such as pensions and the NHS,
:17:45. > :17:47.so he has very few options other than a few unprotected departments,
:17:48. > :17:54.and the working age welfare budget. George Osborne has always believed
:17:55. > :17:58.you can cut as much as you like for working age benefits and there is no
:17:59. > :18:01.political pain, because overall the electorate don't really mind, the
:18:02. > :18:06.people who vote are not affected and they just don't care. Still, it
:18:07. > :18:09.wasn't supposed to be like this. The tree was we could save money on
:18:10. > :18:13.welfare by reforming it, getting people into work and making sure
:18:14. > :18:18.that money is focused on people who need support. I think we are showing
:18:19. > :18:22.you can come up with some very radical answers if you take Welfare
:18:23. > :18:28.Reform Bill, radical reform of the welfare state since Beveridge for 60
:18:29. > :18:32.years, I think it will have a transformative effect, making sure
:18:33. > :18:35.that everyone is better off in work and better off working rather than
:18:36. > :18:39.on benefits. An emblem of this reform was the work capability
:18:40. > :18:42.assessment. Mr Duncan Smith accelerated existing plans to check
:18:43. > :18:48.whether most incapacity benefit claimants should really be on
:18:49. > :18:52.welfare. Idea was the work capability assessment would save
:18:53. > :19:01.money. Here is the DWP 2011 forecast what would happen to the incapacity
:19:02. > :19:05.benefits Bill after WPA kicked in. You can see it falling, and the
:19:06. > :19:10.savings just around the corner, and here is 2013, much the same, savings
:19:11. > :19:15.to come in the future. But they never arrived. The WC a failed. Here
:19:16. > :19:21.is the OBR's latest forecast of what this bill will look like. You can
:19:22. > :19:25.see it is rising. The assessments for those benefits are incredibly
:19:26. > :19:30.conjugated, and what looks simple and Whitehall department isn't that
:19:31. > :19:33.simple when you get to people's everyday lives, the complexities of
:19:34. > :19:40.physical and mental health conditions, the complex co-morbidity
:19:41. > :19:44.when people have all sorts of different problems affecting them,
:19:45. > :19:50.and the relatively low qualified people doing the assessments just
:19:51. > :19:53.can't cope. One of Mr Duncan Smith's other ideas to reform disability
:19:54. > :20:02.benefit and save money was the so-called Personal Independence
:20:03. > :20:06.Payment, the idea it would replace the disability allowance and save
:20:07. > :20:17.20%. In practice, the replacement of DLA with PIP has only saved 5%. The
:20:18. > :20:21.planned savings were only an entry on a spreadsheet, there was never a
:20:22. > :20:25.plan to deliver them, they could only be delivered by having a much
:20:26. > :20:30.more stringent medical test, and that wasn't practical. Universal
:20:31. > :20:34.credit is a slightly different story. That wasn't a plant a
:20:35. > :20:39.short-term savings, it was a plan to overhaul the whole welfare system,
:20:40. > :20:44.merging six in work and out of work benefits for working age people.
:20:45. > :20:48.There were supposed to be 5.5 million people on universal credit
:20:49. > :20:53.by this point. So far, there are only 200,000. It is way off track,
:20:54. > :20:57.and I have been questions about whether the Government without Mr
:20:58. > :21:02.Duncan Smith to push it through will keep going with universal credit.
:21:03. > :21:05.When it was first planned, it was going to be more generous than tax
:21:06. > :21:09.credits, so the Treasury didn't mind that much that it got delayed and
:21:10. > :21:12.delayed. Now it will be less generous, so there is a strong
:21:13. > :21:18.incentive to the Treasury to push it through. The Treasury now projects
:21:19. > :21:22.that if it can get universal credit approach, it can save ?2.5 billion
:21:23. > :21:25.per year this Parliament. Roger Osborne will need that to help it is
:21:26. > :21:30.surplus target, because in the last few days, it became harder to watch
:21:31. > :21:33.-- cut working age Alfei any further. Chris Kirkland.
:21:34. > :21:35.I'm joined by Andrew Mitchell MP, and Charlotte Pickles,
:21:36. > :21:37.who was an expert advisor to Iain Duncan Smith under
:21:38. > :21:39.the coalition Government, and is now senior research director
:21:40. > :21:48.Good evening. Charlotte, two objectives, saving money, just
:21:49. > :21:53.getting money out of the welfare budget, and reforming welfare. Do
:21:54. > :21:56.you think they put too much money on saving rather than reforming? I
:21:57. > :22:00.think that is what ended up happening, yes. If you look at what
:22:01. > :22:03.Iain Duncan Smith went into Government to do, it was to deliver
:22:04. > :22:09.a better welfare system that got better outcomes for the people that
:22:10. > :22:12.received those monies. That tension with the Treasury wanting to save
:22:13. > :22:16.money, to take billions out of welfare, clearly made that very
:22:17. > :22:19.difficult, and I think the best illustration is universal credit
:22:20. > :22:22.where division is absolutely right but we are seeing that constantly
:22:23. > :22:27.chip away at because savings are needed. Do you accept that? I accept
:22:28. > :22:33.completely the tension between reforming the system and saving
:22:34. > :22:38.money, and we have to save money in tackling the deficit, and welfare
:22:39. > :22:43.was where the money is. But there will always be a tension between the
:22:44. > :22:48.Treasury, there was 20 years ago when I was a minister in what was
:22:49. > :22:53.then not DWP but Social Security, there is always that tension, and at
:22:54. > :22:57.a time of austerities, that tension is very great indeed. Which
:22:58. > :23:00.Charlotte, you're not just blaming the Treasury for the failures of
:23:01. > :23:04.Iain Duncan Smith and you working for him to actually deliver the
:23:05. > :23:08.reforms? Everything he touched didn't quite go to plan, did it?
:23:09. > :23:12.Universal credit is a fraction of what it should be, the work
:23:13. > :23:15.capability assessment didn't work, ESA didn't save the money they
:23:16. > :23:21.expected, so none of it has really worked. I don't think anyone would
:23:22. > :23:24.say this is a difficult task, but he is a man who is incredibly
:23:25. > :23:29.principled and committed to trying to deliver a better welfare system,
:23:30. > :23:32.and if you look at the early indications, the evaluations of
:23:33. > :23:36.universal credit, people who are on it are getting into work faster,
:23:37. > :23:41.staying in work longer and earning more competitive people who are not
:23:42. > :23:46.on it. The WC a hasn't worked, we need a different model, but it was
:23:47. > :23:52.designed by Labour, and we picked that up. But the things that didn't
:23:53. > :23:57.work were not not working, because the Treasury had tried to save
:23:58. > :24:02.money. Was it the not saving money that stopped it rolling out, all the
:24:03. > :24:07.work capability assessment failing? They were misconceived. With
:24:08. > :24:10.universal credit, there have been well rehearsed challenges around IT,
:24:11. > :24:15.problems in that. You can't blame the Treasury. Based on a challenge
:24:16. > :24:20.where you have a different department that is constantly coming
:24:21. > :24:23.back, budget after spending review after Autumn Statement Sane, give us
:24:24. > :24:35.more money, the distraction that causes, the focus that you have on
:24:36. > :24:39.trying to say, trying to deliver all the time, but they are important
:24:40. > :24:43.reforms. Andrew Mitchell, did you see any weight in the IDS argument
:24:44. > :24:48.about pension benefits, that the balance between working age and
:24:49. > :24:54.pension cuts has been far too heavy on working age population? I think
:24:55. > :24:57.it is an issue, but we were clear in the general election that we would
:24:58. > :25:02.maintain those pension benefits, and politicians should stand by the
:25:03. > :25:06.promises they make. But you would rather they haven't made that
:25:07. > :25:11.promise? I think it is important to look after pensioners because they
:25:12. > :25:16.have much less flexible to in their earning and spending power, and
:25:17. > :25:19.there needs also increase, and most of them have given this country a
:25:20. > :25:25.great deal in their working life, so I wouldn't say that was a part of
:25:26. > :25:29.the problem, but there is always this tension, and these big
:25:30. > :25:32.projects. They are always bedevilled by problems, I think universal
:25:33. > :25:36.credit is a good change and we have to persevere with it and get it
:25:37. > :25:41.right. Compassionate conservatism. Who is the guardian of this? Is it
:25:42. > :25:47.Iain Duncan Smith who many think of as being on the right of the party,
:25:48. > :25:50.the more harsh, you would say, or is it George Osborne who is now being
:25:51. > :25:58.portrayed as the guy who is trying to slash benefits? I am absolutely
:25:59. > :26:01.clear that it is both and they both have a different role to play, the
:26:02. > :26:07.role of Iain Duncan Smith is to reform the system. He has after all
:26:08. > :26:12.got 150,000 disabled people back into work for the first time in each
:26:13. > :26:14.of the last two years, and the George Osborne, a one nation
:26:15. > :26:19.compassionate conservatives certainly because he has to make
:26:20. > :26:22.sure we don't imperil the future of the next generations by the debts we
:26:23. > :26:25.have run up on the size of the deficit today which have got to be
:26:26. > :26:30.tackled. Who do you think is the more compassionate of those two? You
:26:31. > :26:33.can't do compassionate conservatism without of economy that is working,
:26:34. > :26:36.and the Prime Minister made that point today. You can't have
:26:37. > :26:41.opportunity of jobs are not there, and that is what we have had, we
:26:42. > :26:45.have had an incredible jobs growth that has enabled people to go to
:26:46. > :26:49.work, so I will sidestep that and recognise that there is value in
:26:50. > :26:51.both. Thank you both very much indeed.
:26:52. > :26:53.When President Obama steps aside in ten months' time,
:26:54. > :26:56.to who knows what, what will his foreign policy legacy be?
:26:57. > :27:02.America's hostility to the country had looked anachronistic,
:27:03. > :27:05.And President Obama has rectified that by opening relations.
:27:06. > :27:08.But how big a deal is that, given that in geopolitical terms,
:27:09. > :27:11.Cuba is not as significant as it used to be in the Cold War?
:27:12. > :27:16.Our diplomatic editor, Mark Urban, has been wondering.
:27:17. > :27:25.What it takes to build a foreign policy legacy these days anyway? The
:27:26. > :27:31.White House has put its own footage out underlying the historic nature
:27:32. > :27:34.of this visit. But while there was plenty of excitement in the
:27:35. > :27:38.presidential party, they Havana glanced in these shots look near
:27:39. > :27:46.deserted, controlled, a stage for a tightly scripted political drama.
:27:47. > :27:49.The road ahead will not be easy. Fortunately we don't have to swim
:27:50. > :27:58.with sharks in order to achieve the goals that you and I have set forth.
:27:59. > :28:03.As you say here in Cuba, despite the difficulties, we will continue to
:28:04. > :28:08.move forward. It is a historic visit. We will see how
:28:09. > :28:11.transformative the policy, obviously there is still resistance in Cuba in
:28:12. > :28:18.certain areas, resistance here in the United States. The payoff is
:28:19. > :28:27.going to take some time, but I think as a policy wager it is a reasonable
:28:28. > :28:31.one. But with today's ceremony at a monument to Cuba's revolutionary
:28:32. > :28:42.heroes, Mr Obama found himself overlooked by shade of are and under
:28:43. > :28:52.fire at home. -- Che Guevara. The charge that he is consorting with
:28:53. > :28:54.the dictator country. He is trying to address an issue that is
:28:55. > :29:00.important to his ideological and of the spectrum, the far left who sees
:29:01. > :29:05.Castro is some kind of romantic figure, and more to the point, the
:29:06. > :29:10.United States as doing wrong by the Cuban people. I think that shows his
:29:11. > :29:14.misunderstanding of the reality. With Cuba as with many other aspects
:29:15. > :29:26.of what the president might hope for is his legacy, parties -- partisan
:29:27. > :29:30.clashes could lead a president to force on a policy that the Obama
:29:31. > :29:33.administration has invested much in. I think it is interesting that it is
:29:34. > :29:38.not simply between the parties but within the parties. You have the
:29:39. > :29:43.foreign policy divide between Secretary Clinton and Senator
:29:44. > :29:56.Sanders just the same way you have them between Mr Trump, Ted Cruz and
:29:57. > :29:59.Senator Kasich. That is a reality that all too often has come to
:30:00. > :30:01.characterise my nation's capitol, and has made it harder for the
:30:02. > :30:07.United States to be consistently reliable. Events have also
:30:08. > :30:12.frustrated key elements of the Obama agenda, like trying to get out of
:30:13. > :30:16.Iraq and Afghanistan. Even today in Havana, he had to pay tribute to a
:30:17. > :30:21.US Marine killed in Iraq at the weekend, and the Pentagon
:30:22. > :30:26.acknowledged it now has nearly 4000 troops trying to stabilise the
:30:27. > :30:31.country the president had once pulled them out of. If Cuba has been
:30:32. > :30:35.a success for the President's policy, reconciling with adverse
:30:36. > :30:40.arrays has been an even bigger one in the shape of the Iran nuclear
:30:41. > :30:44.deal. But that has taken a huge amount of diplomatic and political
:30:45. > :30:49.effort, dominating the diplomacy of his second term. And some would
:30:50. > :30:54.argue it has led him to make too many concessions to countries like
:30:55. > :30:58.Russia and Iran who fundamentally do not stand for the same interest as
:30:59. > :31:03.the United States. And it's the turmoil in the Middle East that
:31:04. > :31:09.leads even supporters to accuse Mr Obama of aggregating leadership. The
:31:10. > :31:14.world is such that unless the United States leads, the bad guys show up,
:31:15. > :31:21.and we sat on the sidelines in Syria not wanting to really get involved,
:31:22. > :31:25.for understandable reasons, but we are strong on diplomacy, stronger on
:31:26. > :31:31.trying to work with the opposition, or else recognise that Assad is in
:31:32. > :31:40.power and our number-1 goal to get ices out of it safe haven in Iraq
:31:41. > :31:45.and Syria. -- Isis. And that is where we should have been four years
:31:46. > :31:48.ago. Ending a blockade on Cuba that hasn't made sense the decades might
:31:49. > :31:55.seem like a small victory to celebrate, but it is a message of
:31:56. > :31:58.how hard it has been for Mr Obama to craft distinctive foreign policy
:31:59. > :32:01.legacy that at this stage he is working it to the max.
:32:02. > :32:06.Only ten years old today, and yet it's already almost passed
:32:07. > :32:08.through the whole life cycle of a technology company,
:32:09. > :32:11.from hope, to excitement, to ubiquity and now to many
:32:12. > :32:28.Once upon a time, ten years ago, in fact, a little bird was born. Its
:32:29. > :32:41.USP, tweeting in only 140 characters.
:32:42. > :32:52.When it comes to breaking news it's hard to imagine operating without
:32:53. > :32:59.Twitter, even the raid on Osama Bin Laden's compound was unknowingly
:33:00. > :33:07.tweeted by an IT consulted nearby. First tweeted, "Helicopter hovering
:33:08. > :33:12.here is a rare event." Following that was it clear what he had heard.
:33:13. > :33:15.Then there's the service Twitter offers as an information
:33:16. > :33:19.disseminator. Take the Japanese tsunami in the same year, with many
:33:20. > :33:26.mobile networks and telephone land lines down after the earthquake,
:33:27. > :33:30.terrified residents went to Twitter and of course, Facebook, for
:33:31. > :33:34.guidance. Evacuate to higher ground was the advice from government. Many
:33:35. > :33:39.got that and other information about what to pack in an emergency kit
:33:40. > :33:45.from social media. But recently, this little bird has had many an
:33:46. > :33:47.obstacle in its path. The word is that Facebook, Twitter's bigger,
:33:48. > :33:52.more predatory rival, is winning out. It's been hard to Monday ties
:33:53. > :33:59.Twitter's value and once the market wised up that growth in users was
:34:00. > :34:03.slowing, the share price plummeted. Twitter's reputation is built on its
:34:04. > :34:07.influence on popular opinion. The Arab Spring, seen by some as
:34:08. > :34:10.possibly its biggest coup, was dubbed the Twitter revolution. That
:34:11. > :34:16.meant the site was harnessed to spread the word, to galvanise the
:34:17. > :34:20.people. We can't talk about a Twitter revolution. We cannot talk
:34:21. > :34:25.about a Facebook revolution. It's the revolution of the people on the
:34:26. > :34:33.ground, people who faced the tear gas and the bullets. Tunisia,
:34:34. > :34:39.Twitter is not very popular in comparison to Facebook. But let me
:34:40. > :34:44.say that Twitter helped enriching international media. For some time,
:34:45. > :34:47.not just the international media, but politicians too really believed
:34:48. > :34:51.that Twitter was a powerful tool to connect with those difficult to
:34:52. > :34:55.catch demographics, particularly the young. Four more years tweeted
:34:56. > :35:01.Barack Obama on his second term win. Within an hour it was the site's
:35:02. > :35:04.most popular tweet. This president, Twitter's fourth most followed
:35:05. > :35:11.person, considered by many to have harnessed the power of social media.
:35:12. > :35:14.But four years on, certainly when it comes to British elections, Twitter
:35:15. > :35:19.hasn't played the role that was expected. Linton Crosby the
:35:20. > :35:24.Conservative election strategist reportedly didn't believe in it as a
:35:25. > :35:28.campaigning tool. Labour learned hard lessons about Twitter's
:35:29. > :35:33.influence. I think we did think Twitter was important. We relied on
:35:34. > :35:37.it a bit too much. I think we got a false impression because we were
:35:38. > :35:39.getting a very good, strong feed back from Twitter, I think we
:35:40. > :35:44.thought that's the way the whole country was going. Of course, that
:35:45. > :35:50.didn't happen as we found to our shock and horror when that exit poll
:35:51. > :35:55.dropped at 9. 55pm. A lot is asked of this little bird. If questions
:35:56. > :35:57.mount over its ability to influence opinion, it could find itself not a
:35:58. > :36:00.bird who can fly but a dead duck. Joining me in the studio now
:36:01. > :36:05.is the feminist activist Caroline Criado-Perez,
:36:06. > :36:08.who has 35,000 followers on Twitter. And live from New York,
:36:09. > :36:22.financial journalist Felix Salmon, Nobody told necessity was going to
:36:23. > :36:26.be a competition! Not a competition. Forget the business model for a
:36:27. > :36:29.moment, we will talk about that. But as a service, how do you rate
:36:30. > :36:38.Twitter and what it does and delivers? It's inexpensible. I would
:36:39. > :36:43.rather have my tweet deck open than have a bloomburg, which is worth
:36:44. > :36:46.$20,000 a month. It's the only way to keep up with what's going on, to
:36:47. > :36:55.have conversations with the people who are in the heart of things, to
:36:56. > :37:02.have - it has an incredibler is endipity engine. -- serendipity
:37:03. > :37:06.engine. It's nothing like it has ever existed and it's amazing. You
:37:07. > :37:10.use it a lot, don't you? I use it a fair amount. People suggested to you
:37:11. > :37:14.you could attach your keys to your dog, so that you wouldn't lose your
:37:15. > :37:18.keys. It's full of really useful insight. That's true. I absolutely
:37:19. > :37:24.agree. Yeah, this morning I turned to Twitter because again I locked my
:37:25. > :37:30.self-out of my flat and you decided there must be a solution. Twitter is
:37:31. > :37:34.all of those things. But obviously, it has its drawbacks. The draw backs
:37:35. > :37:38.are that people are really angry on there. It's not just about rape and
:37:39. > :37:42.death threats. I was thinking the other day, I tweeted about putting,
:37:43. > :37:46.a guy replied telling me that feminism was cancer. It was a nice,
:37:47. > :37:52.happy tweet. I didn't really understand it. There's a lot of
:37:53. > :37:58.anger. You got a lot of nasty stuff, didn't you, after you led a campaign
:37:59. > :38:03.to have Jane Austin on a banknote. That was the Bank of England's
:38:04. > :38:07.choice. It was just female representation, just any way, never
:38:08. > :38:12.mind. But it was horrible. I'm amazed you stayed on. You were
:38:13. > :38:15.having death threats. I did, I had three weeks' worth of a bombardment
:38:16. > :38:21.of graphic and detailed rape and death threats. They found an address
:38:22. > :38:25.and were posting that all over the internet, all over Twitter. It was
:38:26. > :38:29.terrifying. I stayed on for a number of reasons, one is I'm incredibly
:38:30. > :38:32.stubborn. The other reasons is what Felix was talking about. It's an
:38:33. > :38:38.incredibly useful and important tool. It's a journalist, a political
:38:39. > :38:41.activist, nothing can replace what Twitter does at the moment. It would
:38:42. > :38:46.be nice if it didn't come with the side order of rape threats. You said
:38:47. > :38:51.it's not just an echo chamber. For a lot of people it is just an echo
:38:52. > :39:01.chamber, isn't it? No, I feel, I mean you can set it up that way, if
:39:02. > :39:05.you want. I feel like you can discover so much with Twitter that
:39:06. > :39:09.because people are constantly lirchinging out and retweeting
:39:10. > :39:14.people and linking to sites you've never been to before, remember, it's
:39:15. > :39:19.a path to the broader internet. This sets it apart from Facebook,
:39:20. > :39:24.Instagram, Snapchat, all the other social networks because they-to be
:39:25. > :39:29.enclosed, self-contained. Twitter is much more - it has its fingers
:39:30. > :39:33.deeper in the web. You learn new things and discover new sites every
:39:34. > :39:36.day on Twitter. Now Felix, just the business plan, because the business
:39:37. > :39:40.isn't really rocking in the way that I think the people who bought shares
:39:41. > :39:48.originally might have hoped. What is wrong with the business plan? Well,
:39:49. > :39:51.when Twitter went public, I was quite voke alabout the -- vocal
:39:52. > :39:57.about the idea that the best way to get value out of Twitter was just to
:39:58. > :40:01.use it rather than buy shares in the hope they would go up. Maybe it
:40:02. > :40:04.doesn't make a lot of sense as a $30 billion corporation. All
:40:05. > :40:07.corporations have some kind of value. Twitter's value might be
:40:08. > :40:12.lower than what the stock market is saying right now. It might be
:40:13. > :40:16.higher, who knows. I feel that the problem with Twitter is that it went
:40:17. > :40:19.public and now people are judging it by its share price instead of
:40:20. > :40:24.judging by the effect it has in the world. Just compare it briefly to
:40:25. > :40:29.Facebook. How do you use the two, separate the two? I think that I
:40:30. > :40:33.probably speak more freely on Facebook because of the - You
:40:34. > :40:38.control your circle more. I control who see it's. I don't have to worry
:40:39. > :40:46.about rape threats or telling me I'm cancer because I spoke about
:40:47. > :40:50.pudding. 1. 6 billion monthly users on Facebook, 320 million on Twitter.
:40:51. > :40:55.I use Twitter to get my message to a wider audience. In Facebook I'm
:40:56. > :41:00.preach is to the converted. On the whole they agree with emany. With
:41:01. > :41:04.Twitter I have a chance to talk to people who don't agree with me.
:41:05. > :41:06.That's an important tool. Thank you both very much indeed.
:41:07. > :41:21.Newsnight is back tomorrow. I'm here then. Good night.
:41:22. > :41:28.Hello. It looks like a chilly start to the day on Tuesday, with a touch
:41:29. > :41:32.of frost in a few spots and patches of mist and fog. Apart from that
:41:33. > :41:35.it's a bright start to the day. Cloud amounts increase into the
:41:36. > :41:38.afternoon, leaving southern and eastern areas with a few spells of
:41:39. > :41:43.sunshine. Further north and west you are, it's likely to be cloudy, but
:41:44. > :41:44.dry in Northern Ireland. The odd spot of light rain or drizzle for