:00:00. > :00:00.This programme contains scenes which some viewers
:00:00. > :00:32.were a lot of kids. What will you do now? I don't know. We are lost.
:00:33. > :00:33.A harrowing IS attack on Brussels,
:00:34. > :00:36.on the open society it represents, and on Europe too.
:00:37. > :00:38.What can the continent do to thwart these attacks,
:00:39. > :00:51.The terrorist have struck Belgium. But it is Europe which has been
:00:52. > :01:03.targeted. It is the whole world which is concerned with this.
:01:04. > :01:08.One of the most cosmopolitan cities in the world, where most
:01:09. > :01:12.Tens of thousands working for the EU and thousands more of course,
:01:13. > :01:19.Brussels was rocked by three explosions this morning,
:01:20. > :01:22.killing more than thirty people and injuring 200 or so more.
:01:23. > :01:24.International terror, attacking the whole concept
:01:25. > :01:25.of an international, tolerant urban environment.
:01:26. > :01:27.Well, no-one is surprised this has occurred, given the Brussels
:01:28. > :01:29.connection to the French terror attacks last year;
:01:30. > :01:36.For a look at the day's events, here's Gabriel Gatehouse.
:01:37. > :01:47.I am about 300 metres from Maelbeek station. Behind me is the European
:01:48. > :01:54.Parliament building. It is eerily quiet on the streets below. People
:01:55. > :02:00.are gathering tonight at the Place de la Bourse. There are candles.
:02:01. > :02:05.People are writing messages in chalk on the ground. Similar to the scenes
:02:06. > :02:08.we saw in Paris. There is always an emotional response to these events
:02:09. > :02:18.and a collective emotional response at that. Our first report.
:02:19. > :02:26.The first bomber struck at check-in. As people were dropping off their
:02:27. > :02:34.bags at the American Airlines desk. The second hit a nearby Starbucks.
:02:35. > :02:37.These pictures show the scene moments after the blast ripped
:02:38. > :02:48.through the familiar rituals of international air travel. I see an
:02:49. > :02:57.explosion. Like an orange ball. A fireball? Yes, I think, but it is so
:02:58. > :03:02.quick. 25 metres from us. One minute before we were there at the place of
:03:03. > :03:09.the explosion. You missed it by one minute? Yes. We should have probably
:03:10. > :03:19.died. The Nessa and Xavier Woods meant to be travelling to Miami for
:03:20. > :03:24.a holiday in the sun. -- Vanessa and Xavier one meant to be. They ran out
:03:25. > :03:29.in a panic. The attackers had planned a third explosion. But
:03:30. > :03:35.failed to go off. But by then the departure lounge was littered with
:03:36. > :03:39.bodies. There is kids. A lot of kids. A lot of injured. A lot of
:03:40. > :03:46.people on the ground. I don't understand. The two explosions at
:03:47. > :03:50.the airport came at around 8am. Within seconds of each other. At
:03:51. > :03:56.least ten people were killed. Then just over an hour later, 11 minutes
:03:57. > :04:06.past 9am, another attack. This time on a Metro train in the heart of the
:04:07. > :04:10.European quarter. It was the height of the rush-hour. Passengers were
:04:11. > :04:13.evacuated along the smoke filled tunnels beyond the headquarters of
:04:14. > :04:17.the EU. The bomb had exploded on the train up ahead in the middle
:04:18. > :04:22.carriage of a three car train, killing around 20 people. Above
:04:23. > :04:28.ground a huge security operation began. People working in nearby
:04:29. > :04:32.offices rushed out to find what had happened and were horrified by what
:04:33. > :04:37.they saw. Bodies on the floor. People just covering them with
:04:38. > :04:42.towels and sheets. And the side there was a young girl. Seems like
:04:43. > :04:49.student age. All alone. She was just sat on the floor crying. In what was
:04:50. > :04:53.a very chaotic adrenaline filled moment, you know, she summed it up
:04:54. > :04:59.to me. There was literally horror on the streets of Belgium. All public
:05:00. > :05:02.transport in the city was shut down. Outside the headquarters of the
:05:03. > :05:08.European Commission today bureaucrats were replaced by
:05:09. > :05:12.soldiers. If the aim is to paralyse they have certainly achieved that
:05:13. > :05:15.aim. This is the heart of Europe, the place where all of the
:05:16. > :05:19.commission buildings are centred. And look it is and complete
:05:20. > :05:25.lockdown. Apart from the police nobody is going in or coming out.
:05:26. > :05:29.This was not just an attack on Europe, but perhaps on Nato, too.
:05:30. > :05:35.Whose planes bombing Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and whose
:05:36. > :05:39.headquarters are in Brussels. By now a manhunt was underway. Police
:05:40. > :05:42.circulated a picture of the attackers at the airport, seen here
:05:43. > :05:49.pushing trolleys through the airport minutes before the attack.
:05:50. > :05:53.TRANSLATION: A photograph of three male suspects was taken at Zaventem
:05:54. > :05:59.airport. Three of them appear to have committed suicide attacks. The
:06:00. > :06:03.third in a light-coloured jacket and a hat is being searched for. As
:06:04. > :06:08.police search for the man in the light jacket, the city was coming to
:06:09. > :06:12.terms with its darkest days since the Second World War. As in Paris
:06:13. > :06:16.they responded with a show of unity. Only last Friday one of the suspects
:06:17. > :06:20.in the Paris attacks was arrested here in Brussels. Many have been
:06:21. > :06:28.waiting nervously for something similar. For those whose lives were
:06:29. > :06:35.changed for ever today, defiance was mixed with the will demand. How do
:06:36. > :06:45.you understand? We were going on holiday. The minute later it is a
:06:46. > :06:48.nightmare. It is not a good day. Tonight there are searches on going
:06:49. > :06:52.across the country. Police are Brussels has owned in on an
:06:53. > :06:57.apartment where they say they have found an IS flag and another
:06:58. > :07:08.explosive device. But the hunt for the missing, continues.
:07:09. > :07:11.by John Crombez, leader of the opposition in the Flemish
:07:12. > :07:13.parliament and a former minister, and by Beatrice Delvaux,
:07:14. > :07:19.the lead columnist for Le Soir newspaper.
:07:20. > :07:31.This is a day nobody wanted to begin. Yes. Very rare for him to
:07:32. > :07:37.express himself like that. It is a sad day for Belgium. A lot of fear.
:07:38. > :07:41.Today was full of sadness. People knew that something like that could
:07:42. > :07:49.happen. But at the same time we were surprised. Especially because it was
:07:50. > :07:52.after the victory of the capture of Salah Abdeslam. We thought it was
:07:53. > :07:59.the beginning of a solution but that wasn't the case. John, the security
:08:00. > :08:03.forces, and their role in this, is this something Belgian steel proud
:08:04. > :08:08.of at the moment, or is there a sense of something has gone badly
:08:09. > :08:14.wrong here? -- still proud. It has gone wrong because Belgium has been
:08:15. > :08:20.hit in a way we haven't seen before, or since a long time. We are
:08:21. > :08:24.confronted with networks of terrorists where the intelligence
:08:25. > :08:27.and the anti-terror units are going to need to be upgraded in a sense
:08:28. > :08:32.that they need the right instruments, the right number of
:08:33. > :08:37.people, the right exchange of information that is going to go
:08:38. > :08:42.beyond what we have today. Do you think this problem is bigger than
:08:43. > :08:48.Belgium can cope with? It is a small country. It is a big problem. It is
:08:49. > :08:54.disproportionately bit in Belgium. I just wonder if it is one this
:08:55. > :08:59.country can handle. What is going to be important is that we don't
:09:00. > :09:02.consider this as a Belgium problem. Like before when it happened in
:09:03. > :09:10.France, a French problem. And in London. And wherever else. This is
:09:11. > :09:15.where Europe needs to talk about shared intelligence. That is
:09:16. > :09:18.something that needs to be European. It isn't bigger than Europe. Europe
:09:19. > :09:26.should be able to manage this together. You talk about European
:09:27. > :09:31.issues and the international nature of the threat. I just wonder whether
:09:32. > :09:35.this is such an international city, isn't it? I think it was ranked the
:09:36. > :09:39.second most international after Dubai. In terms of proportion of
:09:40. > :09:44.people born overseas who are living here. I wonder whether that shapes
:09:45. > :09:52.the response here, and shapes what people feel about the nature of the
:09:53. > :09:57.threat here. No, I think, basically the Belgians fear what can happen in
:09:58. > :10:02.other cities, too. We are near to Paris. We live very near the French
:10:03. > :10:09.people. We thought that what happened in Charlie Hebdo and at the
:10:10. > :10:12.Bataclan could happen here. There is this link between the Belgian
:10:13. > :10:17.terrorist in the French terrorists after what happened in Paris. It was
:10:18. > :10:22.by French people and people who were born here in Belgium. But they can
:10:23. > :10:25.travel through the frontiers. They can travel between the countries
:10:26. > :10:32.because there was not enough exchange of information between the
:10:33. > :10:37.two countries. Salah Abdeslam was able to cross the border after the
:10:38. > :10:43.Bataclan. The French police didn't identify him. It wasn't that the
:10:44. > :10:46.French did anything wrong, or the French or the Belgian police, but if
:10:47. > :10:51.they don't work together it won't be solved. We have already started, in
:10:52. > :10:56.this conversation, having a small inquest into things which may have
:10:57. > :11:01.gone wrong. This possibly is in the days of this inquest, is it? I don't
:11:02. > :11:05.know what you think. This is not the day for those kinds of difficult
:11:06. > :11:11.questions. Belgium has been hit by something so big. It hasn't been hit
:11:12. > :11:18.by something like this in decades. Politicians react in the same way.
:11:19. > :11:24.Even perhaps the media. If we can manage this we are going to have to
:11:25. > :11:30.manage this together. This is no time for politics in finding
:11:31. > :11:35.oppositions, but really finding solutions. And fast. Do that really
:11:36. > :11:39.fast. People need security. People need to be aware of the fact that we
:11:40. > :11:47.can overcome this. We are going to need to do this together. We often
:11:48. > :11:53.think of Belgium as a country divided between French and Flemish.
:11:54. > :11:57.We joke about how long it takes to form a government in Belgium. I just
:11:58. > :12:02.wonder whether this is one of those psychological or physical shocks to
:12:03. > :12:08.a nation which, in a sense, develops deeper spirit, or not? I would like
:12:09. > :12:12.to be as optimistic as you are. Like any other country, after few days,
:12:13. > :12:20.you have to go back. After the Charlie Hebdo, you know one
:12:21. > :12:23.political party, one Flemish, during two or three days there was a sense
:12:24. > :12:27.of union between the political parties. After that, the Flemish
:12:28. > :12:36.nationalist party issued a statement saying that it was the fault of the
:12:37. > :12:40.French Socialists, of the Islamic behaviour, or the fact that they
:12:41. > :12:46.were sympathetic to the Islamic type of behaviour. Then it exploded. Then
:12:47. > :12:54.the fight came back again. I think today is maybe not the day to ask
:12:55. > :13:02.questions. Tomorrow will be. We don't know what to think. Months ago
:13:03. > :13:07.we had success against terrorism. In the South of France we arrested
:13:08. > :13:12.people before and killed them before they could be able to commit crimes.
:13:13. > :13:17.Then we arrested Salah Abdeslam. At the same time, we think we can
:13:18. > :13:22.handle this, but then at the same time, this happened today and we
:13:23. > :13:25.just ask questions. Should we have known. And this is a question for
:13:26. > :13:35.tomorrow. We won't stop asking them because of some union that has to be
:13:36. > :13:38.here today. Let's finish by asking. Lifestyle changes... There are
:13:39. > :13:43.countries like Israel where security is embedded in everything. Something
:13:44. > :13:48.everybody does because they have been used more of these kinds of
:13:49. > :13:52.events than most of us in Europe. The thing Belgians or other
:13:53. > :13:57.Europeans are ready to significantly change lifestyles to put security at
:13:58. > :14:07.a higher priority? -- do you think. No, and I would say the reaction
:14:08. > :14:10.today is quite strong already, that people are saying, we will not hand
:14:11. > :14:16.our country over to this kind of terrorism. We don't need that
:14:17. > :14:24.overcome this, but we are going to need to be very strong and improve
:14:25. > :14:28.on security to do that. We can only say we will survive this as a
:14:29. > :14:32.society, we need to make security stronger, information stronger. But
:14:33. > :14:39.it will be more intrusive? Absolutely. Thank you both very much
:14:40. > :14:44.indeed. Solidarity is one of the features in these ghastly days.
:14:45. > :14:47.Everybody declaring themselves to be at one with the community under
:14:48. > :14:51.assault. There has been a particularly strong degree of
:14:52. > :14:53.solidarity between the French and Belgians in recent months, both
:14:54. > :15:01.victims of a Brussels-based jihadists al. There was solidarity
:15:02. > :15:05.in lights tonight, with the Eiffel Tower eliminated in Boeljon colours.
:15:06. > :15:08.But that has been tension between those two countries, Belgium
:15:09. > :15:12.bridling at some of the criticism it faced losing control of that
:15:13. > :15:16.district of Molenbeek, and any tension between Belgium and France
:15:17. > :15:21.points to a bigger problem, that Europe talks about solidarity, but
:15:22. > :15:26.exhibits too little of it when it comes to security cooperation. So we
:15:27. > :15:29.are going to spend the next few minutes thinking about different
:15:30. > :15:31.aspects of the threat and how to deal with it.
:15:32. > :15:34.This looks like a pretty catastrophic failure
:15:35. > :15:46.What do our security services say about this?
:15:47. > :15:52.There have been persistent reports that Belgian intelligence has been
:15:53. > :15:56.swamped by the caseload, and that is not coming from British security
:15:57. > :16:05.sources, but from European ones. And the numbers would seem to back that
:16:06. > :16:08.up. 350 jihadis from Belgium have travelled to Syria to fight the
:16:09. > :16:12.so-called Islamic state. In terms of per capita population, that is the
:16:13. > :16:16.biggest problem of any country in Europe. I spoke to counterterrorism
:16:17. > :16:22.sources here today, and they were reluctant to criticise their Belgian
:16:23. > :16:25.counterterrorist counterparts here today, but they did say that some
:16:26. > :16:30.don't have Sabitzer victory close enough relationships with police,
:16:31. > :16:33.and I spoke to a former French government minister tonight, and he
:16:34. > :16:36.told me there is a problem with Belgian policing. And to look at
:16:37. > :16:41.this, you really have to consider one fact. After the Paris attacks,
:16:42. > :16:44.they were hunting for Salah Abdeslam, and it took them four
:16:45. > :16:52.months to find him, and he was hiding in plain sight in central
:16:53. > :16:58.Brussels. And given the nature of the targets today, it was an
:16:59. > :17:04.airport, but it was landside, not air side, so no security. What's to
:17:05. > :17:08.security people think you can do about those kinds of targets and how
:17:09. > :17:14.you cope with that? Protecting a soft target is the key, clearly, and
:17:15. > :17:16.I have been speaking to security experts today talking about a rather
:17:17. > :17:21.controversial technique called behavioural analysis, and this
:17:22. > :17:24.basically means putting plainclothes people into locations where they can
:17:25. > :17:30.watch passengers before they pass through security, before they mount
:17:31. > :17:37.planes and trains, and this is what one security expert had to say to me
:17:38. > :17:40.today. Behavioural analysis is all about identifying somebody was
:17:41. > :17:44.negative intent, it doesn't matter whether it is a passenger, crew
:17:45. > :17:49.member, or airport insider. I have long advocated that this should
:17:50. > :17:52.either private method -- primary method of screening at airports, in
:17:53. > :17:56.the UK and worldwide, and there has been so much resistance over the
:17:57. > :17:59.years because people feel that we are going to be racially Provine
:18:00. > :18:07.people rather than making intelligent decisions based on
:18:08. > :18:08.common sense. -- racially profiling. Richard Watson, thank you very much
:18:09. > :18:11.indeed. We can't be tough on terror
:18:12. > :18:13.or the causes of terror without understanding the things
:18:14. > :18:15.that make it flourish. To understand those things
:18:16. > :18:18.by the way is not to justify And sadly, fairly or not,
:18:19. > :18:22.it's the Brussels district of Molenbeek that often comes up
:18:23. > :18:25.as exhibit number one, of community conditions
:18:26. > :18:28.ripe for terror. Secunder Kermani has been
:18:29. > :18:30.spending time in Molenbeek, he's been making a Panorama
:18:31. > :18:42.programme that will air tomorrow He is with me now. And it isn't just
:18:43. > :18:49.Molenbeek that is the focus of the attention this evening. Yes, we have
:18:50. > :18:54.seen raids in a district called Tabac three, about 15 minutes from
:18:55. > :19:02.Molenbeek, both of these areas fairly central in Brussels. -- in a
:19:03. > :19:06.district called Schaerbeek. They are in a geographical semicircle of
:19:07. > :19:14.deprived areas around a central canal in Brussels, and we have seen
:19:15. > :19:17.people look at Molenbeek as the centre of radicalisation, but it is
:19:18. > :19:21.not as simple as that, people move around. The Paris attackers, they
:19:22. > :19:29.came from Molenbeek but they also had a safe house in Schaerbeek where
:19:30. > :19:32.they manufactured suicide belts, and we don't know what connection there
:19:33. > :19:39.is between today's attacks and the attacks in Paris. We see areas
:19:40. > :19:43.outside of Brussels, Antwerp is also seen significant numbers of young
:19:44. > :19:47.people go over to Syria. But with all those caveats, if you want to
:19:48. > :19:52.understand the causes behind radicalisation in Belgium, Molenbeek
:19:53. > :19:55.is as good a place as any to go, and I went back there today, as well as
:19:56. > :19:58.of course there being a lot of sympathy for the victims are today's
:19:59. > :20:02.awful events, there is also a sense of foreboding about what the events
:20:03. > :20:09.could mean for the community there and their place in society.
:20:10. > :20:14.Molenbeek has become notorious. We don't know if today's attackers came
:20:15. > :20:20.from here, but it has been the centre of Belgian's problems with
:20:21. > :20:23.radicalisation. Just last Friday, security services here celebrate the
:20:24. > :20:30.capture of Salah Abdeslam, the final member of the group that attacked
:20:31. > :20:35.Paris in November. Many in a support network all grew up in Molenbeek.
:20:36. > :20:36.Today's attacks have left some here worrying what will be revealed and
:20:37. > :21:10.what will happen next. Belgium has a higher number of
:21:11. > :21:15.jihadi is in Syria per capita than anywhere else in Europe, and for the
:21:16. > :21:22.past few weeks, I have been spending time here to try to understand why.
:21:23. > :21:25.One reason many in the Muslim community here and is that when the
:21:26. > :21:27.Syrian conflict started, authorities didn't seem overly concerned by the
:21:28. > :22:14.presence of recruiters. Molenbeek has 40% youth
:22:15. > :22:20.unemployment. There are a lot of disaffected young men here, and some
:22:21. > :22:26.are susceptible to the IS message. This Sheikh used to be one of
:22:27. > :22:29.Molenbeek's most well-known preachers, but is now in Syria with
:22:30. > :22:34.a rebel group fighting against both IS and the Assad regime. In
:22:35. > :22:39.Molenbeek, many labelled him a radical, but unlike a new generation
:22:40. > :22:55.of IS jihadists, he says he is firmly against attacks in the West.
:22:56. > :23:00.I asked him why he thought so many young people from his old
:23:01. > :24:20.neighbourhood joined IS. For some, this solution to the
:24:21. > :24:24.threat to IS lies in resolving the Syrian crisis. For others, it lies
:24:25. > :24:27.closer to home, but whatever the solutions are, they are already too
:24:28. > :24:29.late for today's victims. And don't forget Panorama's
:24:30. > :24:31.special report - Inside Europe's Terror Attacks -
:24:32. > :24:34.is on BBC One at 9pm tomorrow. Let's pull some of these
:24:35. > :24:40.threads together. Muslim community
:24:41. > :24:55.leader Taufik Amlize Is from the centre for the Muslim
:24:56. > :25:01.community. What proportion to you are not supporters of Isis, but
:25:02. > :25:07.disenchanted, fed up and basically hate the society in which they live?
:25:08. > :25:14.Our situation in Brussels especially is that we have a high level of
:25:15. > :25:18.economic deprivation. People are feeling anger, there is a lot of
:25:19. > :25:23.bitterness. We have facts and figures that show that either you
:25:24. > :25:28.are under skilled or over skilled, you don't get enough chance to get
:25:29. > :25:33.the job, or to get the right opportunities. And this situation is
:25:34. > :25:39.really giving the field to make the narratives of Isis very attractive
:25:40. > :25:43.to those people. So it is very hard to counter a narrative that says
:25:44. > :25:51.there is nothing here, come with us in Syria... So why is Isis the thing
:25:52. > :25:55.that appeals to people? Some of these cases, like Salah Abdeslam,
:25:56. > :26:02.they have been through a variety of odd lifestyles, drugs, other crime,
:26:03. > :26:06.all of those things. What is it about Isis that is appealing? Maybe
:26:07. > :26:12.it is the simplistic certainties, but it seems there are so many
:26:13. > :26:17.things that could tempt you aside. It is a purpose. They try to find a
:26:18. > :26:22.purpose from themselves. They are looking for something from which
:26:23. > :26:25.they can leave, maybe they can die. We hear strong and powerful
:26:26. > :26:28.statements from those youngsters saying that there is nothing for to
:26:29. > :26:35.live here, it is preferable to go and die there. So these persons who
:26:36. > :26:40.are doing very bad things, they are bad guys, and the Justice should do
:26:41. > :26:43.his job to try to put them in jail, burqas the Muslim community has
:26:44. > :26:48.nothing to do with those people, they are also attracted to the fact
:26:49. > :26:55.that Isis is really giving them a narrative. And what proportion we
:26:56. > :26:58.talking about? Have described anger, and there are lots of communities
:26:59. > :27:03.where people are angry or feel disenchanted, and there is this
:27:04. > :27:08.other problem which is Isis, which is a subset, a smaller part of the
:27:09. > :27:15.anger problem. And what proportion of people are flirting with the
:27:16. > :27:22.thoughts of caliphates and so on? We don't have the figures. You meet
:27:23. > :27:27.them? Every day, or every now and then? Not every day. We meet them of
:27:28. > :27:37.course because we need to help them to find and the right people. Does
:27:38. > :27:40.it work, what you do? Can use it an angry person who has gone off the
:27:41. > :27:43.rails and who wants to be a martyr or supports a bunch of people in
:27:44. > :27:52.Syria, do you find you can take those people, sit them down, talk to
:27:53. > :27:56.them and cure them of that? It is long-term work, it is a long-term,
:27:57. > :28:02.but we can do that, and we have to do that. There is no choice. We have
:28:03. > :28:06.to take some with our expert eyes, and bring them not only strong
:28:07. > :28:12.narratives, we need to show them that they have the chance to get
:28:13. > :28:16.real opportunities, so that is why we need to work with the political
:28:17. > :28:22.bodies, with the Governments, so that our narrative is really giving
:28:23. > :28:27.a sense to them. Just walking to the will not be enough. You also need to
:28:28. > :28:31.give the reality of the opportunities. How do we get out of
:28:32. > :28:38.this cycle which we have had in other episodes? The cycle in which
:28:39. > :28:43.society, or people in society, blame the Muslims, and Muslims say, we are
:28:44. > :28:49.not to blame, you are to blame because you have maltreated us or
:28:50. > :28:53.you are racist. It is an incredibly unconstructive dialogue between
:28:54. > :28:56.elements of the Muslim community and the broader community. Identity now
:28:57. > :29:02.how we break out of this ghastly cycle. It is a constant debate. How
:29:03. > :29:06.far can you be responsible as a community for the behaviour of
:29:07. > :29:13.certain of the community? It Israeli hard, because you need really to
:29:14. > :29:16.make the line between the community, the Muslim community, which is
:29:17. > :29:20.peaceful, and those who are doing those deeds. And as a Muslim
:29:21. > :29:24.community, we are also suffering from what is happening. We were also
:29:25. > :29:29.victims, but we are also policemen, we are giving blood in hospitals. So
:29:30. > :29:34.this is really something that we need to make sure that they don't
:29:35. > :29:40.divide us. We are as a Belgian population also free from terrorism,
:29:41. > :29:43.and if we divide ourselves between Muslims who are condemning and those
:29:44. > :29:49.who are not condemning, then we are just playing the game of Isis,
:29:50. > :29:54.because the purpose is to divide, so we all must say to the Belgian
:29:55. > :29:59.community, Belgian society, do not... Don't fall for that, don't
:30:00. > :30:04.divide. And that is the main motto we have. Thank you very much. That
:30:05. > :30:08.is it from Brussels this evening. These terror days, waking up to the
:30:09. > :30:12.news and realising just how bad it is, these are becoming grimly
:30:13. > :30:15.familiar in their characteristics, and I wonder how many more we can
:30:16. > :30:21.take before they become not familiar but routine. It will be a very sad
:30:22. > :30:25.threshold across that we stop being shocked or outraged by them, but I
:30:26. > :30:33.can say from Brussels, we are long way from that yet. Back to London.
:30:34. > :30:41.Away from that dreadful atrocity in Brussels.
:30:42. > :30:43.At Westminster today the fallout over Ian Duncan Smith's resignation
:30:44. > :30:46.played out in the final day of the Budget debate
:30:47. > :30:48.with George Osborne taking the highly unusual step of leading
:30:49. > :30:52.He almost blithely batted off the idea of a ?4.4 billion black
:30:53. > :30:54.hole caused by his U turn on disability benefit cuts,
:30:55. > :30:56.praised IDS extravagantly but while admitting
:30:57. > :30:58.that the now scrapped cuts to Personal Independence Payments
:30:59. > :31:01.were a mistake, refused to make any apology for the disarray.
:31:02. > :31:04.But he's left with a barrel load of problems for a man famed
:31:05. > :31:07.for believing in long term plans - how to meet his welfare cap,
:31:08. > :31:10.and how to built credibility as a contender for the leadership
:31:11. > :31:13.after successive Budget meltdowns, oh and the fact that he has
:31:14. > :31:15.staked his future on the outcome of the EU referendum.
:31:16. > :31:26.Here's our political editor David Grossman.
:31:27. > :31:34.You do not need to be a professor of body language to detect the change
:31:35. > :31:38.in the chance's Tamina. The man who looked imperious and confident on
:31:39. > :31:42.Budget day today seemed far less sure of himself as he headed for the
:31:43. > :31:45.Commons, tracked back to salvage his Budget and his reputation. --
:31:46. > :31:57.Chancellor's demeanour. The Chancellor has been doing quite
:31:58. > :32:01.a lot of giving way since the Budget. Buffeted by criticism from
:32:02. > :32:09.his own party and the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith. He was a rather
:32:10. > :32:15.more humble George Osborne, first paying tribute to his parting
:32:16. > :32:18.colleague. Of course there is always robust discussion between the
:32:19. > :32:25.Treasury and the spending department where money needs to be saved. The
:32:26. > :32:30.decisions we made to keep our economy secure are always difficult.
:32:31. > :32:37.We must be prepared to listen and learn. Especially when we don't get
:32:38. > :32:41.it wrong. We worked together longer than any two people, doing our jobs
:32:42. > :32:45.before we sat in any government. And we have been part of a team that has
:32:46. > :32:51.reduced the number of those out of work benefits to levels not seen in
:32:52. > :33:03.40 years. He's given way not just disability benefits, but also the
:33:04. > :33:06.government is not shifting on what has been done about solar panel
:33:07. > :33:12.payments and tax on sanitary products. It was described as deeply
:33:13. > :33:16.unfair, drifting in the wrong direction that will divide the
:33:17. > :33:21.country, not united. And he said all of those words after the Chancellor
:33:22. > :33:29.announced he was ditching the cuts on PIPs the. Is he deluded? Labour
:33:30. > :33:34.is not worrying the Chancellor, rather how those on his own side
:33:35. > :33:38.reacted. This is the new intake of Conservative MPs posing just after
:33:39. > :33:42.the election. George Osborne has, according to somebody who knows his
:33:43. > :33:45.mind, been wrong-footed by the zeitgeist of this group who are far
:33:46. > :33:50.more concerned about helping the working poor than bringing down
:33:51. > :33:53.taxes for higher income groups. It was perhaps with them in mind the
:33:54. > :33:59.Chancellor offered this personal manifesto.
:34:00. > :34:02.These are the people that I am fighting for, real, decent,
:34:03. > :34:03.hard-working people, not numbers on a Treasury
:34:04. > :34:05.spreadsheet but people whose lives would be impoverished,
:34:06. > :34:08.whose hopes and aspirations would be crushed, if we had gone
:34:09. > :34:10.on spending more and more than the country earns.
:34:11. > :34:13.Getting things right for these people is what I am all about.
:34:14. > :34:14.Today, the Government's independent forecasters,
:34:15. > :34:16.the Office for Budget Responsibility, were being grilled
:34:17. > :34:20.on their analysis of the Treasury Select Committee.
:34:21. > :34:23.The concern from this group of MPs is that the Chancellor has allowed
:34:24. > :34:29.clever politics to get in the way of sound fiscal planning.
:34:30. > :34:31.The Chancellor is absolutely right to commit himself to eradicating
:34:32. > :34:34.the deficit, but he has hemmed himself in with public expenditure
:34:35. > :34:37.commitments that effectively take out of play three quarters of public
:34:38. > :34:39.spending, and almost three quarters of tax as well,
:34:40. > :34:45.so his room for fiscal manoeuvre is very small.
:34:46. > :34:49.Added to that, he's got a fiscal rule which means at the moment
:34:50. > :34:51.he is adjusting policy every few months according to the vagaries
:34:52. > :35:00.That has now triggered a huge political row, when in fact
:35:01. > :35:10.we are talking about relatively small economic numbers.
:35:11. > :35:13.The Chancellor had done enough to save his budget, passed this
:35:14. > :35:16.After all the climb-downs, his repetition, particularly among
:35:17. > :35:18.those who would choose the next Conservative leader,
:35:19. > :35:29.Joining me now to discuss where all this leaves the Chancellor
:35:30. > :35:31.are the Guardian's Political Editor Anushka Asthana and the Times
:35:32. > :35:47.George Osborne is gaining a reputation for having problematic
:35:48. > :35:53.budgets. Tax credits, to the problem two weeks ago with pension reform...
:35:54. > :35:59.Can he be taken credibly by the time of the next Budget? I think so
:36:00. > :36:04.because he got us out of recession. And we have 2 million more people in
:36:05. > :36:08.employment. No matter what he does? His long-term record is good. He
:36:09. > :36:11.struggles with the budgets. It is when it comes to these intense
:36:12. > :36:18.periods when he is trying to balance the books. That is an issue. And the
:36:19. > :36:23.OBR's forecasts have been all over the place. Everybody has an issue
:36:24. > :36:28.with it. This particular Budget, he has found it really difficult and
:36:29. > :36:34.also the omnishambles Budget. But he has been in the Treasury for 11
:36:35. > :36:38.years for the Tories. And we will talk about whether that is too long
:36:39. > :36:42.in a moment. What is your feeling about whether or not it does any
:36:43. > :36:46.damage to him as a Chancellor. Because of the recovery really
:36:47. > :36:50.anything can go, Alice says committee can be forgiven anything.
:36:51. > :36:55.She mentioned the omnishambles Budget. We are looking for a word
:36:56. > :36:59.for this one. The ultra shambles Budget, maybe. The Tory whips did a
:37:00. > :37:02.good job to quarter make the backbenchers, to make sure they were
:37:03. > :37:08.supporting George Osborne, give him a boost. But even some of them told
:37:09. > :37:12.me that it is time to sell shares in George Osborne as a potential
:37:13. > :37:19.leader, because you can get one but it wrong, you cannot get two wrong.
:37:20. > :37:30.What about this idea by pushing disability cuts, and offering to
:37:31. > :37:34.higher the tax for tax gains, but also the fact that he doesn't read
:37:35. > :37:39.the mood any more? They said they would do it in the manifesto. It
:37:40. > :37:43.isn't as if he had it away and pounced it on them. They knew it
:37:44. > :37:50.would happen. But in terms of what the party needed, he didn't do that.
:37:51. > :37:53.It is difficult. But one particular word, disability, a disadvantaged
:37:54. > :37:57.group of people, they are vulnerable. It is a tough call. The
:37:58. > :38:02.general public quite like the benefit cuts, but when it is
:38:03. > :38:09.targeted to people who have disabilities. It suggests that he
:38:10. > :38:15.has a tin ear. Different to Stephen Crabb. The Chancellor has wanted to
:38:16. > :38:19.make an argument that he does care about the working poor and that it
:38:20. > :38:24.is balanced. For Iain Duncan Smith to make that criticism was powerful.
:38:25. > :38:28.It is unusual to see right-wing conservatives attacking a
:38:29. > :38:31.Chancellor, who probably sees himself as quite liberal for his
:38:32. > :38:35.austerity programme. Underneath all of this bubbling away, the issue of
:38:36. > :38:43.Europe. That is the big dividing line in the party. What is he going
:38:44. > :38:48.to do? I think he is waiting to see what will happen in November. It is
:38:49. > :38:55.staggered. Each time he has a new set of figures. Maybe he doesn't
:38:56. > :38:59.need one. Well, we don't know what will happen with the OBR. It is
:39:00. > :39:06.difficult for him to decide what he needs to do now. I think he knew he
:39:07. > :39:10.had to drop the PIP reforms. I think you knew they would be a disaster. I
:39:11. > :39:13.think he would have had a problem. They will not pull back on the
:39:14. > :39:21.welfare cap. They said they agree with the principle. What they are
:39:22. > :39:24.playing with is the level. ?4.4 billion has gone out. They are
:39:25. > :39:28.saying there are no plans for welfare cuts. We don't know if that
:39:29. > :39:32.means this year, this Parliament, that's not clear, but they are not
:39:33. > :39:39.going to reach that cap. He is hanging himself in a necessarily,
:39:40. > :39:42.according to some. Some people were thinking, did we need this welfare
:39:43. > :39:48.cap, did we need to put ourselves in this position in the first place?
:39:49. > :39:52.George Osborne did well today. He got his party back onside. They were
:39:53. > :39:57.all there against Labour. All being able to face their common enemy.
:39:58. > :40:01.They will now wait until the Autumn Statement. It does feel like, we are
:40:02. > :40:06.going to magic away the money when they re-forecast everything in the
:40:07. > :40:14.autumn. Truth is, he was on track for a surplus. He doesn't actually
:40:15. > :40:18.have to find the 4.4 billion. What is your political judgment? I think
:40:19. > :40:22.it was a case more of him looking at what he could do, and how he could
:40:23. > :40:29.organise a Budget. What is more deported for him at the moment is
:40:30. > :40:35.Europe. -- more important. If we actually have Brexit then everything
:40:36. > :40:40.changes. Absolutely. If there is a Brexit they are dead in the water.
:40:41. > :40:44.Before that let's talk about after the election, he was offered the
:40:45. > :40:45.Before that let's talk about after Foreign Office and he turned it
:40:46. > :40:53.down, do you think that was a mistake? That is a difficult
:40:54. > :40:58.decision to make. He has done this for 11 years which is a long time to
:40:59. > :41:04.be spokesman of anything. Now he could possibly look at that. He
:41:05. > :41:08.would be interesting doing it. Because he is a reformer. It would
:41:09. > :41:14.be interesting to see what he does. Maybe he has left it too late. Maybe
:41:15. > :41:18.now because of that he is toxic. I don't think so. I think he is one of
:41:19. > :41:21.those people who come back each time. Every single time something
:41:22. > :41:28.has gone wrong, he is good at coming back. It almost feels worse when
:41:29. > :41:32.your -- when you are in the middle of the storm. You wade your way
:41:33. > :41:37.through, and then you look back. Whether or not that happens, how do
:41:38. > :41:43.you think his chances of leadership are now? Clearly diminished. You had
:41:44. > :41:47.people who were supporting him and now think they are not convinced
:41:48. > :41:50.George Osborne can do it. Alice was making the right point, people see
:41:51. > :41:54.him as the person behind the economy, and they think the economy
:41:55. > :41:59.won the Conservatives the last election. There is still a chance.
:42:00. > :42:04.Even someone I know who support him a great deal is now saying, never
:42:05. > :42:09.say never for George as leader. Not a ringing endorsement exactly. And
:42:10. > :42:13.other people are coming to the fore as potential candidates. If the
:42:14. > :42:18.result in the referendum is Remain, then his stock will rise again. I
:42:19. > :42:21.think so, but I think David Cameron will stay on for another four years.
:42:22. > :42:26.That gives him a long time in politics. Let's say if you were to
:42:27. > :42:29.foreign affairs, or the Home Office, he would have a chance to show what
:42:30. > :42:36.else he can do. And he could be formidable again. If it is a
:42:37. > :42:41.convincing win for the Remain site, a lot of people have been saying
:42:42. > :42:46.that a difficult situation would be a narrow win for Remain, where some
:42:47. > :42:54.people in the party would feel they had been robbed. Thanks very much.
:42:55. > :43:01.The Times has bloodbath in Brussels as their headline. Two of the three
:43:02. > :43:08.suspected men involved are believed to be dead. Police are still looking
:43:09. > :43:12.for the man in the hat. The men on the left are wearing gloves because
:43:13. > :43:17.people think they were carrying detonators of the bombs that were
:43:18. > :43:22.actually on their trolleys. The Guardian has a different picture.
:43:23. > :43:27.What we feared has happened. At least 31 killed after terror attacks
:43:28. > :43:38.ripped through Brussels. Again, the picture of the men with the two
:43:39. > :43:50.gloved hands. And on the front of the Son, the same picture, with the
:43:51. > :43:54.black gloves circled. -- the Sun. In the daily Mirror, bloodbath in
:43:55. > :44:01.Brussels, CCTV catches airport bombers before attack. And the death
:44:02. > :44:05.toll reaches 31. High alert, as Cameron says, it could happen here.
:44:06. > :44:10.We leave you with some of the images captured today from those terrible
:44:11. > :45:09.Good evening. It is a fairly quiet start to the day on Wednesday, with
:45:10. > :45:10.a lot of cloud. It might produce the odd light shower