:00:08. > :00:14.Migration is one of the most fraught issues in this referendum campaign.
:00:15. > :00:16.We're here in the bustling market town of Boston in Lincolnshire,
:00:17. > :00:20.an immigration hot spot, to ask, is it time to leave
:00:21. > :00:25.the EU and get control over who can live here?
:00:26. > :00:32.We have members of the public, 'S experts and politicians to help
:00:33. > :00:35.us negotiate our way through the issue.
:00:36. > :00:37.We'll ask, what are the prospects for population, if we stay
:00:38. > :00:39.in with free movement of EU citizens?
:00:40. > :00:54.And here in Boston, what has been the effect of migration so far?
:00:55. > :00:57.Hello, welcome to St Botolph's church, they call it a church,
:00:58. > :01:01.It's the biggest parish church in England, known
:01:02. > :01:07.We're guests here for the next hour, as we try to get our heads
:01:08. > :01:13.This is the fourth of our Newsnight specials on the main referendum
:01:14. > :01:16.issues, and we've come here for this one, as it is a town that has
:01:17. > :01:18.seen its population grow with central and east European
:01:19. > :01:20.migrants attracted by local jobs in agriculture
:01:21. > :01:26.A bigger proportion of east Europeans than
:01:27. > :01:30.According to a new national poll from Ipsos Mori,
:01:31. > :01:33.immigration is ranked as "very important" in this referendum by
:01:34. > :01:36.48% of the population, that puts it almost level
:01:37. > :01:41.with sovereignty and a little behind the economy in the rankings.
:01:42. > :01:43.Two-thirds of us believe, that if we leave the EU,
:01:44. > :01:49.Here in Boston, the effect of EU migration has been dramatic,
:01:50. > :01:57.We'll look at both with our two politicians.
:01:58. > :01:59.For Brexit, Conservative MP Kwasi Kwarteng.
:02:00. > :02:04.Labour MP, former minister in the Home Office in
:02:05. > :02:09.We also have experts and those with important
:02:10. > :02:13.And we have an audience too - some have been regulars
:02:14. > :02:28.But we have quite a number of people from this area.
:02:29. > :02:35.I thought we might start with comments from the audience.
:02:36. > :02:45.A quick show of hands, how many of you think immigration has gone too
:02:46. > :02:53.far? How many of you don't feel immigration has gone too far. So
:02:54. > :02:59.perhaps a few more of you think it has. Let's get some of the effects
:03:00. > :03:07.it has had in and around Austen. Angie Cook, what has your experience
:03:08. > :03:14.been with the arrival of so much New Labour in the town. I used to have
:03:15. > :03:18.an HGV drivers agency and pay a fair wage until another company in the
:03:19. > :03:25.Spalding area brought in immigrant drivers and they pay the minimum
:03:26. > :03:34.wage. They put them up in caravan sites. Or they have to pay for their
:03:35. > :03:38.living is ?35 a week to live in the caravan, plus food. Our drivers
:03:39. > :03:42.cannot compete with that. If our workers are on minimum wage, at the
:03:43. > :03:47.same as what the immigrant workers are, they live in these caravans and
:03:48. > :03:55.paid the minimum amount. We have to pay council tax, wrens, childcare
:03:56. > :04:01.costs out of the same money. Your business has now gone? I don't do
:04:02. > :04:11.the driving agency any more. What do you do now? I run a temperature
:04:12. > :04:17.control career business. Darren Bevan, what has been your effect of
:04:18. > :04:25.migration in this area? From our perspective, it has been a positive
:04:26. > :04:29.one. Food processing? Yes, I work for a business just outside of
:04:30. > :04:37.Austen. We have been around for about 15 years, make a contribution
:04:38. > :04:43.to employment and we do employ a large amount of migrant workers. It
:04:44. > :04:50.will be great but you because it has pushed the rates down. It allows us
:04:51. > :04:55.to be competitive within our business arena. And in any business,
:04:56. > :05:00.the objective is to be competitive in your business arena, yes. I know
:05:01. > :05:07.we have some central and Eastern European is here. What are you doing
:05:08. > :05:14.here? I came to Boston and started teaching at Boston College. I teach
:05:15. > :05:23.English. I happen to teach both, migrants and also native students. I
:05:24. > :05:31.don't have a lot of experience with migrant employment, but I am very
:05:32. > :05:37.close to the problems migrant people have, but they encounter in their
:05:38. > :05:46.daily life. I talked to my students and they do comment a lot. There has
:05:47. > :05:50.been a lot of concern about the pressure on public services, schools
:05:51. > :05:56.and hospitals. We will hear more about that through the programme.
:05:57. > :05:59.Caroline, I know you have been a head teacher, what is your
:06:00. > :06:03.experience because you must have lots of peoples who come into the
:06:04. > :06:09.school who don't have English as their first language? My school is
:06:10. > :06:13.in Grantham and we have a lot of migrants in the school population
:06:14. > :06:19.and we find they integrate very well with the strong pastoral support
:06:20. > :06:24.system. We do feel the RAF base feeds our school population as well.
:06:25. > :06:28.As regards education, as long as there is strong and robust pastoral
:06:29. > :06:32.systems and partnerships at every level, we have found the Eastern
:06:33. > :06:40.European is add another dimensional to the school. What do they add, I
:06:41. > :06:45.can see you can deal with the problems of language. Cultural
:06:46. > :06:50.aspects, work ethic and their parents contribute as well as the
:06:51. > :06:54.students. They are very much part of the community, as all students are.
:06:55. > :06:59.All students add different dimensions to academies, and that is
:07:00. > :07:06.the way it should be. They all contribute and have a lot to learn.
:07:07. > :07:13.And with a robust Pastoral system, transition allows students to settle
:07:14. > :07:16.in very well and they achieve a lot. Some of the themes we will pick up
:07:17. > :07:24.on as we talked through the issue. And we'll get more comments
:07:25. > :07:27.from the audience too. I should say there is also
:07:28. > :07:29.a Newsnight live blog, it will have lots of extra material
:07:30. > :07:31.and even potentially some fact clarifications
:07:32. > :07:33.as the programme progresses. You can find it at
:07:34. > :07:34.bbc.co.uk/newsnight. But why is migration
:07:35. > :07:36.an issue at all? The story of the EU
:07:37. > :07:41.is one of two halves. When we last voted on membership
:07:42. > :07:44.in 1975, the nine member states had But since then, the EU has
:07:45. > :07:50.tripled its membership, and brought in countries
:07:51. > :07:52.with far lower wages, That has created an incentive
:07:53. > :07:56.for inward economic migration on a scale this island has not seen
:07:57. > :07:59.since it was cut off from the continent by
:08:00. > :08:02.the English channel. Our policy editor Chris Cook has
:08:03. > :08:05.been out and about in Boston, Boston has been transformed
:08:06. > :08:24.by immigration. It is not just the mass
:08:25. > :08:26.of East European shops, it is not just the local agriculture
:08:27. > :08:29.and food processing industries who thrive on workers supplied
:08:30. > :08:31.by local employment agencies. And it is a change
:08:32. > :08:39.that divides opinion. I think the community has
:08:40. > :08:44.lost its Lincolnshireness. It should be again a good story
:08:45. > :08:47.for Boston because in fact We have had to create extra school
:08:48. > :08:53.places, we have had to expand schools, and we have had to build
:08:54. > :08:59.new schools and open free schools. Let's take a step back though,
:09:00. > :09:02.and look at the national picture. Total EU immigration was running
:09:03. > :09:06.at about 100,000 people a year until 2004, when it rose as a group
:09:07. > :09:08.of Eastern European countries Annual EU immigration is now a bit
:09:09. > :09:17.under 300,000 people a year. Now EU immigration is less than half
:09:18. > :09:19.of total immigration, Net immigration is about half
:09:20. > :09:39.of those totals. Now some of those East Europeans
:09:40. > :09:41.come here temporarily, living in cramped
:09:42. > :09:44.housing and saving up. So what do academics
:09:45. > :09:51.make of these flows? Well, they're usually quite
:09:52. > :09:54.positive. Well, we have done a study which now
:09:55. > :09:59.dates back some years, we're looking at the period
:10:00. > :10:03.between 1997 and 2005. And over that period what we found
:10:04. > :10:06.was that immigration held back wages at the very low end
:10:07. > :10:11.of wage distribution. On the other hand, that impact
:10:12. > :10:15.was very, very small. It did increase wages further up
:10:16. > :10:18.the distribution and on average the impact of migration on wages
:10:19. > :10:23.was actually positive. From the evidence we have
:10:24. > :10:27.from the study which dates back a little bit further,
:10:28. > :10:31.we found basically very little evidence that immigration has
:10:32. > :10:35.done anything in terms Boston's experience of EU
:10:36. > :10:40.migration is very extreme. Here in the town in the 2011 census
:10:41. > :10:43.they found 13% of the local population came from
:10:44. > :10:47.elsewhere in the EU. What that means is that all of those
:10:48. > :10:50.migration effect are really dialled For example, we know that migrants
:10:51. > :10:55.have powered big changes We know that better off people
:10:56. > :10:59.have done even better. But there has also been a squeeze
:11:00. > :11:03.on lower income people and it has come in the form of their living
:11:04. > :11:12.standards, not unemployment. This Labour councillor says changes
:11:13. > :11:15.to the local economy has Historically, we grew
:11:16. > :11:22.the vegetables, people came There has always been more work
:11:23. > :11:28.than could be done by local people. You would have people arriving
:11:29. > :11:31.in white vans you know, at four in the morning and before that,
:11:32. > :11:34.you would have itinerant Irish So there has always been
:11:35. > :11:39.the need for extra work. But in those days the vegetables
:11:40. > :11:42.were picked, the workers went home at four o'clock and the vegetables
:11:43. > :11:44.left Boston with them. What has happened now
:11:45. > :11:47.is there is much more processing of food going on and in truth
:11:48. > :11:50.lots of vegetables are actually being brought in from Europe
:11:51. > :11:53.to be processed here. And also technology has
:11:54. > :11:56.extended the farming season, so really now harvesting takes place
:11:57. > :11:58.for ten months of the year. Immigration has also had
:11:59. > :12:01.a big demographic side-effect. Walking around Boston,
:12:02. > :12:03.one thing is quite clear. It is actually quite a young town,
:12:04. > :12:06.even when you take account of the fact that we are here
:12:07. > :12:10.on the week of the May fair. When you look at who immigrants are,
:12:11. > :12:17.one of the very striking things So for example, here is a graph
:12:18. > :12:22.showing the age distribution It was taken through the annual
:12:23. > :12:27.population survey, a big What you can see is the huge swell
:12:28. > :12:33.of them in their early 30s. In fact, if you take people
:12:34. > :12:36.who are the same age as me, 33, across the whole of the UK,
:12:37. > :12:39.a full 5% of them were actually This local Ukip councillor says that
:12:40. > :12:44.an influx of young people has Unfortunately now we're
:12:45. > :12:52.in a situation whereby we have a lot of young men and this
:12:53. > :12:55.brings its own problems. Alcohol, of course, causes
:12:56. > :12:59.many, many problems. And it means they do disrespectful
:13:00. > :13:03.things in public where And then likewise, it means there's
:13:04. > :13:11.fighting and such problems Immigration has had other
:13:12. > :13:17.effects as well. Well, the main effects have been it
:13:18. > :13:20.has driven down wages, we have some of the lowest
:13:21. > :13:22.wages in the country, The average wage for an adult
:13:23. > :13:26.working full-time is only just And that is before the new living
:13:27. > :13:32.wage, that is last year's figures, And rents are some of the highest
:13:33. > :13:38.in the East Midlands. You have got in Nottingham
:13:39. > :13:42.about ?480 a month to rent a house. There's also a local problem
:13:43. > :13:51.with family homes being used to house large
:13:52. > :13:54.numbers of single people. If you are a less scrupulous
:13:55. > :13:56.landlord you can get a three-bedroom house,
:13:57. > :13:58.change the living room and the dining room into bedrooms,
:13:59. > :14:01.nothing in law stops you doing that. Two people in each room,
:14:02. > :14:03.ten persons in the house, ?60 each week, ?600 a week rent
:14:04. > :14:08.coming in and ?2400 a month. And that is more than the average
:14:09. > :14:18.family earns in a month. So there's no way an average family,
:14:19. > :14:20.whether they were born in Boston or come here
:14:21. > :14:23.as a family from Europe, So how many different
:14:24. > :14:26.languages have we got? We've got English, we've got one
:14:27. > :14:29.Polish, we've got two Portuguese. Left to their own devices,
:14:30. > :14:31.young people often make In 2014, 11% of children born
:14:32. > :14:36.in the UK had at least one parent The figure for where both parents
:14:37. > :14:43.are EU migrants is over 5%. Whose parents were not born
:14:44. > :14:45.in England, they were born
:14:46. > :14:47.in another country? This headteacher runs a chain
:14:48. > :14:54.of local schools with a large In the secondary sector, 36%
:14:55. > :15:03.are of Eastern European community. In one of our other primaries
:15:04. > :15:06.it is 42%. But if you go in to nursery,
:15:07. > :15:21.73% of children are not English. More children obviously
:15:22. > :15:27.need more school places. And that demand wave in Boston
:15:28. > :15:30.will soon hit secondaries. Lots of these children
:15:31. > :15:33.also get public money Fortunately, we do get additional
:15:34. > :15:40.funding for children who arrive in this country not
:15:41. > :15:50.speaking English. A child that has not been
:15:51. > :15:53.in in the country for three years, we would attract an additional
:15:54. > :15:55.thousand pounds per child. In our trust that equates to around
:15:56. > :15:58.?375,000 a year additional funding. Now, with that, we can appoint
:15:59. > :16:00.specialist staff who can Now, EU immigrants as a group
:16:01. > :16:05.are unusual in a way you might not expect from the type of work
:16:06. > :16:08.that they do. So immigrants to this country
:16:09. > :16:10.and in particular from Europe They are better educated
:16:11. > :16:16.than the average UK worker. However, that does not mean
:16:17. > :16:19.that they necessarily work from the very start
:16:20. > :16:22.of their migration history They very often downgrade
:16:23. > :16:26.because they're downgrading, they are working jobs
:16:27. > :16:29.which are below their observed Because they need some skills
:16:30. > :16:33.which are complimentary Such as for instance
:16:34. > :16:39.language skills. They acquire these skills and then
:16:40. > :16:42.they very quickly upgrade to those jobs which are more in line
:16:43. > :16:44.with the education Well this is the traditional
:16:45. > :16:53.game in Latvia. Indeed, lots of those who lack
:16:54. > :17:00.English skills have This local Latvian community leader
:17:01. > :17:03.has been trying to stop them It would be better to stop people
:17:04. > :17:12.coming in who don't speak English, it is better for them and safer
:17:13. > :17:14.for us as well. Those living in this
:17:15. > :17:19.country quite a long time. Because two years ago they opened
:17:20. > :17:22.the doors for new countries and these people came two years ago
:17:23. > :17:25.and now they're actually working Some of these people working
:17:26. > :17:33.for ?3.50 an hour, that is illegal. And this again, exploitation
:17:34. > :17:39.is just going on. We are here ten years now,
:17:40. > :17:43.they opened the doors for Lithuania, Latvia and Poland and we have been
:17:44. > :17:47.exploited when we came here. Local authorities can act
:17:48. > :17:55.on some problems. We have managed to get two grants
:17:56. > :17:59.from government to run The first one went for a year,
:18:00. > :18:03.we inspected over 240 properties and issued over 280 enforcement
:18:04. > :18:06.notices, so some properties had Four of the properties
:18:07. > :18:12.as I understand it were not actually And we actually found some
:18:13. > :18:16.properties where people were being forced to live
:18:17. > :18:18.in wooden sheds. Others though, think we should call
:18:19. > :18:23.time on our EU membership. I feel that our country
:18:24. > :18:28.is becoming overwhelmed. We are only a small island,
:18:29. > :18:34.although I do believe But I do think we need very
:18:35. > :18:39.seriously to have our borders back. There is a hard question
:18:40. > :18:42.for the Leave campaign Would immigration actually
:18:43. > :18:48.be lower post Brexit? It is certainly the case that
:18:49. > :18:51.if we were to leave the European Union,
:18:52. > :18:53.we would have an opportunity What we cannot say though,
:18:54. > :18:57.is what that immigration So for example, it is quite
:18:58. > :19:02.plausible that a future British Government would cut a trade
:19:03. > :19:06.deal with the EU to get market access to that big market and part
:19:07. > :19:10.of the price of that would be much the same migration conditions
:19:11. > :19:17.as we have right now. Few other towns, or their annual
:19:18. > :19:19.fairs, have been so But few also face such congestion,
:19:20. > :19:29.or pressure on living standards. So the effects of migration are more
:19:30. > :19:52.nuanced and much harder to spot. Well we can now look at our
:19:53. > :19:57.experience of EU migration. David Hanson to start with you for the
:19:58. > :20:01.Remain side. Do you like free movement in Europe or are you
:20:02. > :20:08.someone who says free movement is just a price we have Depay to be in
:20:09. > :20:12.a good thing, the EU? Free movement I think has good value but the
:20:13. > :20:17.greatest value from me is the fact that we have access to a market of
:20:18. > :20:23.500 million people. Where we can sell goods, we can import and export
:20:24. > :20:26.goods, and I have constituents who make planes in France as well as
:20:27. > :20:32.constituents who make planes in the UK. The people doing business across
:20:33. > :20:35.the whole of the EU. Everyone says the rest of Europe says if you want
:20:36. > :20:38.to be in the single market you've got to go with the free movement of
:20:39. > :20:44.people. But let's suppose the EU said look you do not need
:20:45. > :20:48.pre-movement, would you say the best immigration policy is one that says
:20:49. > :20:52.anyone from the EU can come in and we are quite selective, about people
:20:53. > :20:56.outside the EU. I would put caveats on the EU movement, there has been
:20:57. > :21:00.some agreement with the Conservative government on the issue of whether,
:21:01. > :21:06.people paying in before the draw out. Issues were raised in the film
:21:07. > :21:11.about undercutting wages for example, about housing, and I
:21:12. > :21:18.propose motions in the last Parliament to enforce minimum wage,
:21:19. > :21:23.to stop gang masters and enforce housing regulations. So I think
:21:24. > :21:29.there is free movement and we should not forget there are 1.2 million
:21:30. > :21:33.British people who live in mainland Europe. I'm still not 100% clear as
:21:34. > :21:37.to whether you actually think that is a good thing in itself whether
:21:38. > :21:42.that is just something you have got to put up with. This is part of my
:21:43. > :21:49.genuine attachment to the issue at my grandfather had free movement in
:21:50. > :21:53.Europe, he went to fight Germans in World War I. My uncle died in World
:21:54. > :21:56.War II. Premy that was free movement but not free movement in a positive
:21:57. > :22:02.economic market of 500 million people. That is what I think is that
:22:03. > :22:10.prize in this. 500 million people in a big market. You think that the EU
:22:11. > :22:12.made a mistake, this is perhaps of relevance to Boston, Debbie EU make
:22:13. > :22:17.a mistake because it always said it wanted free movement as part of the
:22:18. > :22:25.package early on. 2004 suddenly changed massively and became to
:22:26. > :22:30.different sections. The poor low-income part and the high income
:22:31. > :22:35.part. That is right, I was an officer at the time, not the Home
:22:36. > :22:39.Office but in others at the time and they should be brought transitional
:22:40. > :22:46.approaches to that. Even now we have a situation whereby income levels
:22:47. > :22:52.are desperate. But ultimately again, I entered Parliament 24 years ago,
:22:53. > :22:58.we had the eastern European states under Russian rule. We had a lack of
:22:59. > :23:03.looking outwards to the west, no open markets there. Come back in 20
:23:04. > :23:07.or 30 years and we will see Eastern Europe rising in terms of its
:23:08. > :23:12.economic austerity, it will be part of a wider market with us and
:23:13. > :23:16.creating jobs not just here in the UK but also in Eastern Europe. For
:23:17. > :23:21.me that a surprise that we have got to work for and fight for. We cannot
:23:22. > :23:26.walk away from it on the 24th of June. If the Prime Minister had been
:23:27. > :23:32.able to negotiate as perhaps the wanted to, if he had to negotiate an
:23:33. > :23:40.emergency brake, would you support the idea of that? I think the Prime
:23:41. > :23:43.Minister wanted to have a positive recommendation so his expectations I
:23:44. > :23:47.think were quite low in terms of what he was seeking in the
:23:48. > :23:51.negotiations. What I want to see is where still not part of the Schengen
:23:52. > :23:56.Agreement, labour and the Conservatives do not believe that we
:23:57. > :24:05.should be part of that. We are an island, we have strong border
:24:06. > :24:11.control now. In my view, and I was the Home Office minster, we now have
:24:12. > :24:14.strong border control. What we do have is free movement and I would
:24:15. > :24:19.say to people there are people here from eastern Europe, 1.2 million
:24:20. > :24:24.British people in mainland Europe. If we leave the EU gives me an
:24:25. > :24:30.answer as to what happens to those people who currently live on
:24:31. > :24:36.mainland Europe. Let me ask that question, but before that, are you
:24:37. > :24:41.glad the central and eastern Europeans came to the UK and
:24:42. > :24:48.contributed? It would be wrong to say there were no benefits. What I
:24:49. > :24:54.would say, there was a huge scale and the biggest immigration we have
:24:55. > :24:58.had since the UK left the continent and the English Channel was formed
:24:59. > :25:02.thousands of years ago. I am the product of immigrants, my parents
:25:03. > :25:08.came from West Africa in the early 1960s and I recognised the benefits
:25:09. > :25:11.of migration. But in the last ten years you have a scale and magnitude
:25:12. > :25:15.we have never seen before and I think the internal institutions of
:25:16. > :25:20.the country, my own constituency, school places, it is a difficult
:25:21. > :25:28.issue. The other thing is that the EU changed, at the beginning the
:25:29. > :25:36.countries of the EU were roughly comparable in terms of their
:25:37. > :25:40.economic status, their GDP. When you have a situation with Eastern
:25:41. > :25:46.European accession countries who threw no fault of their own, you
:25:47. > :25:51.looking at minimum wage rates of ?1 in Bulgaria and ?2 an hour in
:25:52. > :25:57.Poland, and our minimum wage is now ?7 and going up to ?9 and more by
:25:58. > :26:00.2020, you do not need an economics degree to work out there are huge
:26:01. > :26:05.incentives for a lot of people to the UK and that process is verging
:26:06. > :26:09.on uncontrollable. Even with hindsight tummy watcher immigration
:26:10. > :26:13.policy with regards to the eastern and central European countries,
:26:14. > :26:19.Europe idealise policy if you had been allowed to set that, what would
:26:20. > :26:24.it have been in 2004? Well David himself could well that they needed
:26:25. > :26:28.to be transition. If you read the accounts of Labour politicians that
:26:29. > :26:35.the time... What with the right number have been? In 2010 when I was
:26:36. > :26:41.first elected to Parliament, the Conservative Party manifesto said it
:26:42. > :26:44.would reduce immigration to tens of thousands. That was a clear
:26:45. > :26:49.manifesto commitment that we have not reached. The reason why is
:26:50. > :26:57.because largely because of EU membership. You have not got to that
:26:58. > :27:01.on the non-EU migration. You cannot blame the EU, you're not even close.
:27:02. > :27:04.If you had no migration from the EU you would not be close to that
:27:05. > :27:15.target. So how can you blame the EU for that target? You would
:27:16. > :27:20.acknowledge that there are two portions, the non-EU bid and the EU
:27:21. > :27:24.bid. If we were to leave the EU we would be able to have some control
:27:25. > :27:29.of that. Then we can worry about the other bit as you say. The other bit
:27:30. > :27:34.is aware, it is a points system, much more regulated, people are
:27:35. > :27:37.coming in that effectively we can choose for us but free movement of
:27:38. > :27:42.people we do not have a choice. That is the fundamental difference. Let
:27:43. > :27:44.me introduce a couple of people, to local people with professional
:27:45. > :27:48.experience of the effects of rabbit population growth.
:27:49. > :27:50.Alyson Buxton is the rector for the Parish of Boston.
:27:51. > :27:52.And Rohini Deshmukh, a GP in Boston until
:27:53. > :28:13.Alyson Buxton, we have heard of the talk of the cultural difficulties.
:28:14. > :28:18.The demographic of young, single men coming into the town in large
:28:19. > :28:25.numbers. What has been your experience? It is interesting that
:28:26. > :28:31.we are here who was the patron saint of travellers and wayfarers. We know
:28:32. > :28:37.people have visited the sometime here. But the percentage has
:28:38. > :28:48.increased. As a church, what is important is we try to be at the
:28:49. > :28:54.centre. We come at it in a different way. It is about dignity. Any vote
:28:55. > :29:01.for instance, for me is not necessarily just about what I feel
:29:02. > :29:08.is best for me. It is about what is best for common humanity, what is
:29:09. > :29:12.best for the poor and what is best for the marginalised. We are in the
:29:13. > :29:18.very centre of that. We find in this very church, it isn't just about
:29:19. > :29:25.Sunday, it is about every single day of the week. Even if we think about
:29:26. > :29:33.our votive stands and how they are used. We buy about 15,000 votive
:29:34. > :29:43.Stans a year. Sorry, candles. What you are saying is, because the
:29:44. > :29:53.numbers coming in have been boosted by... The church is central and the
:29:54. > :29:58.church is being used... There has been change in the community,
:29:59. > :30:05.without a doubt. Rohini Deshmukh, you are a GP. Answer the question
:30:06. > :30:10.because a lot of people say it puts pressure on medical services. Did
:30:11. > :30:15.you find yourself with too much to do because of the population growth?
:30:16. > :30:20.Absolutely, there is no doubt the numbers went up. Having problems
:30:21. > :30:32.anyway with coping with what we are dealing with, the numbers. With no
:30:33. > :30:39.infrastructure or no mechanism put in to cope with that, you have to
:30:40. > :30:47.take patients in because they are in your locality. It is unethical not
:30:48. > :30:53.to register patients, just because you cannot cope. There was a time
:30:54. > :30:56.when people were saying, an interesting thing about migrants,
:30:57. > :31:02.particularly polls and others, they are young men who don't tend to be
:31:03. > :31:08.big users of the health service, not a population of elderly people. Was
:31:09. > :31:13.that your experience? It is not 100% true. Everybody needs medical aid
:31:14. > :31:24.and the problem with that is, apart from them going to GPs, I know it is
:31:25. > :31:29.a diversion, I am a GP, but the hospital A get flooded with these
:31:30. > :31:35.people because they don't get time. They are so strict with them,
:31:36. > :31:39.getting time off with sick leave or whatever, they don't get that so
:31:40. > :31:45.they go to A and present themselves there. Was there a
:31:46. > :31:51.mistake made, when we saw the numbers coming in, in providing the
:31:52. > :31:56.infrastructure, let's call it? There was a migration fund established in
:31:57. > :32:03.2008 by the then Labour government. Lincolnshire in 2009, 2010 had
:32:04. > :32:09.almost ?1 million for that. The current government abolished the
:32:10. > :32:13.fund in 2011. We are in Boston and there are pressures and I recognise
:32:14. > :32:18.them. In my constituency, similar things are happening. We should look
:32:19. > :32:23.at how we can support languages and health services. There are 100,000
:32:24. > :32:26.people from Eastern Europe and mainland Europe who work in the
:32:27. > :32:32.health service currently in the United Kingdom. Let's go to the
:32:33. > :32:34.audience. Who would like to make a comment about this point of
:32:35. > :32:40.infrastructure, gentlemen in the front in the blue shirt? I am a
:32:41. > :32:48.foreigner myself, I am from Yorkshire. But the infrastructure is
:32:49. > :32:52.very poor and it cannot cope. I am a health visitor and the two years
:32:53. > :33:00.working in Boston, finishing in December. Half of the newborn babies
:33:01. > :33:04.were from Lithuania or Poland. I do think immigration should be
:33:05. > :33:14.controlled. However, I am surprised to the attitude because I have met a
:33:15. > :33:16.lot of Polish people and they are the warmest, friendless and hardest
:33:17. > :33:18.working people. APPLAUSE
:33:19. > :33:27.Take the gentleman there and then we will go to the lady. The point I
:33:28. > :33:33.would like to make is on a wider scale, we are a sovereign nation
:33:34. > :33:38.state and it is up to us to decide how many people come into our
:33:39. > :33:48.country. It may be one person a year, it may be 1 million. But it is
:33:49. > :33:53.up to us as at country to decide not to have these open borders. We
:33:54. > :33:58.cannot cope with 300,000 people coming in every year. Where do they
:33:59. > :34:01.go and how do the services look after them? So we had to take
:34:02. > :34:04.control of this. APPLAUSE
:34:05. > :34:07.The lady in the purple top. I am an Lincolnshire County Council. My
:34:08. > :34:16.residents are complaining bitterly so much about how our Jack has been
:34:17. > :34:20.put under stress. One of the issues is policing, visible policing. The
:34:21. > :34:28.migrants have been given a special police officer. That is special
:34:29. > :34:31.treatment and it costs money. It costs ?350,000 per annum for
:34:32. > :34:36.interpreters for Lincolnshire Police. We're not getting any extra
:34:37. > :34:42.money for this and it is depriving our residents, who have been here,
:34:43. > :34:46.pay taxes for years, of the visible policing they wish for because
:34:47. > :34:53.resources are being put elsewhere because of the strain of the
:34:54. > :35:01.migrants. You are Ukip counsellor? I am a Ukip County Council and we are
:35:02. > :35:05.a growing force here because we are being ignored because the
:35:06. > :35:08.politicians and the establishment don't take any notice of what is
:35:09. > :35:10.going on. APPLAUSE
:35:11. > :35:15.Just a show of hands, how many people feel you will have been
:35:16. > :35:20.better disposed to immigration if more money and more resorts is what
:35:21. > :35:25.put forward to cope with the bottlenecks and stresses caused by
:35:26. > :35:31.it? How many feel those stresses and thinks... How many of you feel that
:35:32. > :35:36.is not really the problem. This gentleman over here. You have got to
:35:37. > :35:42.control the numbers coming in. You talk about a shortage of housing and
:35:43. > :35:46.school places, hospitals and Doc is. It is obvious coming you have 300
:35:47. > :35:49.thousand minimum coming into the country. That is not counting the
:35:50. > :35:52.illegal immigrants and those that come across the tunnel and given
:35:53. > :35:59.hotel places. It is not about putting more money into the health
:36:00. > :36:05.service to cope? You cannot keep pouring money into an open pit.
:36:06. > :36:08.While you have got 300,000 people coming in a year, you will never
:36:09. > :36:11.control anything. I want to bring in two
:36:12. > :36:13.national figures now. Harriet Sergeant, who's written two
:36:14. > :36:15.reports on immigration And also here, Jonathan Portes
:36:16. > :36:19.of the National Institute An economist, he is quite an expert
:36:20. > :36:23.on migration, and produced a report today on Brexit,
:36:24. > :36:33.migration and the economy. Jonathan, economist are mildly in
:36:34. > :36:39.favour of immigration, they don't exaggerate the benefits. But what
:36:40. > :36:46.was your report's central conclusion? You heard a lot of
:36:47. > :36:50.concern about public services. Let's be clear, more people means more
:36:51. > :36:57.demands on public services, school places, more demands on GPs. But,
:36:58. > :37:05.migrants also pay taxes. Especially migrants from Europe. Because they
:37:06. > :37:15.are more likely to be in work, much more likely to be of working age. We
:37:16. > :37:22.spend most of the money the welfare state spends goes on old people and
:37:23. > :37:27.to some extent, to the kids. It doesn't go on people of working age.
:37:28. > :37:31.What our analysis suggests, as does that of many others, migrants, on
:37:32. > :37:39.average, especially European migrants, pay in more than they take
:37:40. > :37:46.out. We should be clear on this, at least on a national level. If you
:37:47. > :37:53.want lower migration, then I think leaving the EU will mean we can end
:37:54. > :37:56.freedom of movement and it will mean we can reduce migration, not to the
:37:57. > :38:00.tens of thousands, even reducing migration from the EU, we could
:38:01. > :38:06.reduce it, but the cost would be either higher taxes or worse public
:38:07. > :38:10.services. We would lose more money from the taxes the migrants who
:38:11. > :38:17.weren't here, wouldn't be paying than we would save. Wait, the
:38:18. > :38:24.microphone is not new. That is not true. 75% of migrants go into
:38:25. > :38:30.low-paid jobs. That means they are getting housing benefit, getting tax
:38:31. > :38:35.credits, getting child benefit. We are in this extraordinary position
:38:36. > :38:40.where we are subsidising migrants to take low-paid jobs and we are
:38:41. > :38:49.sidelining of the people who could have been doing those jobs. So they
:38:50. > :38:58.are not paying in more. They are simply not paying more tax, we are
:38:59. > :39:06.subsidising their jobs. One of you is right, one of you is wrong. BBC
:39:07. > :40:52.graph... That is wrong, Harriet. I would
:40:53. > :40:58.On that basis you could have 100 million migrants from China who
:40:59. > :41:09.would be economically productive and would bring huge benefits. There is
:41:10. > :41:15.financial activity which the numbers bring an personal finance, how that
:41:16. > :41:21.benefits people individually. As we have seen it just does not. Mostly
:41:22. > :41:32.the poorest in society suffer from migration. In a word, if I told you
:41:33. > :41:36.there is a small cost, call it a penny on the basic rate of income
:41:37. > :41:44.tax, as a result of reducing migration, would you still do it? It
:41:45. > :41:50.depends on the numbers. You said my case was preposterous, 100 million.
:41:51. > :41:54.It is all about the numbers. Let's pause for a moment. We have been
:41:55. > :41:57.talking about the effect of migration to date. What happens if
:41:58. > :42:01.things carry on as they are? The population of the UK right now
:42:02. > :42:04.is fast approaching 66 million. Now, the clever folks at the Office
:42:05. > :42:07.for National Statistics make projections as to how
:42:08. > :42:09.that will grow. Based on what they think
:42:10. > :42:13.are sensible assumptions. By 2027 we are projected to reach
:42:14. > :42:16.70 million and we get That is when a 20-year-old
:42:17. > :42:23.today reaches 64. Half the growth is down
:42:24. > :42:26.to net migration. Britain becomes Europe's
:42:27. > :42:29.most populous country in the official projections,
:42:30. > :42:32.comfortably exceeding Germany. There's even an official projection
:42:33. > :42:37.for the borough of Boston. It sees the population of 68,000
:42:38. > :42:40.grow by 500 a year for England is already one of the most
:42:41. > :42:47.densely populated nations of Europe. How easy will it be to create homes,
:42:48. > :42:50.roads, power stations and water supplies for a population
:42:51. > :42:57.on the projected scale? As I said in that graphic,
:42:58. > :43:00.those projections are official, but they are not meant
:43:01. > :43:04.to be reliable forecasts. They are just projections
:43:05. > :43:06.based on assumptions Maybe the economies of eastern
:43:07. > :43:12.Europe will grow, and people Or maybe Turkey will join
:43:13. > :43:29.and there will be many David Hanson, the projections show
:43:30. > :43:34.80 million in 2016. Are you comfortable with that? I do not
:43:35. > :43:40.believe we will get to 80 million. The key question is a economy has
:43:41. > :43:45.got to be able to sustain that. Therefore if there is economic
:43:46. > :43:50.growth, and jobs being created, there will be people who have got to
:43:51. > :43:59.do that work. Not just in Boston but in different parts of the country.
:44:00. > :44:05.You can see if it is 1 million, 2 million, the maths could work out
:44:06. > :44:09.but 80 million, when you get to 80 million, do you think the quality of
:44:10. > :44:13.life would improve if we built the roads and houses, are you convinced
:44:14. > :44:19.that quality of life would improve? I think they go hand-in-hand. We
:44:20. > :44:23.will have a natural limit at some point, I cannot project what it will
:44:24. > :44:30.be. For me the question is how do we ensure that we have economic growth
:44:31. > :44:33.because that is what is important. Sometimes that means skills
:44:34. > :44:39.shortages. If someone wanted to come from Italy and set up a business
:44:40. > :44:44.here in Boston, would we say you cannot come because we do not have
:44:45. > :44:49.the infrastructure. I think with got to look at how we encourage economic
:44:50. > :44:52.growth across the whole of Europe. That will ultimately include the
:44:53. > :44:58.eastern European countries, even the lower part of Italy where there are
:44:59. > :45:00.more economic growth because ultimately the economic success of
:45:01. > :45:05.the 500 million people in Europe depends on all of us. At the moment
:45:06. > :45:13.they're just exporting their unemployed young people to us. Do
:45:14. > :45:21.those official projections, you think that they will happen? I think
:45:22. > :45:27.the projections are likely to stop 35 years ago the senses of
:45:28. > :45:35.population was 56 million, today around 65. Some people say 67 or 68.
:45:36. > :45:40.I think 80 million, just another 12 million, is easily achievable and
:45:41. > :45:43.easily something under the influx of immigration that we have had that
:45:44. > :45:50.could be reached. I do not understand why David is so clear
:45:51. > :45:56.that it will not happen. The point is, it is a waste of time speaking
:45:57. > :46:00.of numbers but the point is we have no control over numbers. If the
:46:01. > :46:05.whole of Greece if it collapsed tomorrow, which could be possible,
:46:06. > :46:11.the whole of Greece could move here. There is nothing stopping the
:46:12. > :46:20.numbers. Nothing. But the whole of Greece is not going to move here.
:46:21. > :46:24.You with a party that told us know when from, that's 30,000 Polish
:46:25. > :46:27.people were going to come if that. That is part of the economic growth
:46:28. > :46:33.that has created jobs that need filling. Do you think that the whole
:46:34. > :46:38.of France, Italy or Greece are going to come here? The point is that they
:46:39. > :46:44.could. And we have no control over who comes into our country or in
:46:45. > :46:47.what numbers. That is the point. You can say it is impossible,
:46:48. > :46:52.technically it is not impossible. That is the point, that we should be
:46:53. > :47:00.able to control who comes into the country.
:47:01. > :47:04.Jonathan, should we believe those projections, they are the official
:47:05. > :47:07.projections, statisticians make these projections and tell us that
:47:08. > :47:13.they're not forecasts and then they are used in all the forecasts
:47:14. > :47:20.everyone makes. Knows short answer. They are perfectly plausible. --
:47:21. > :47:25.know is the short answer. But long-term forecasts have been made.
:47:26. > :47:32.I live in a place called Islington in north London. It happens to be
:47:33. > :47:37.the most densely populated local authority in the country. It is the
:47:38. > :47:42.most crowded place in the country. In the 1970s, when I moved there,
:47:43. > :47:47.inner London last 20% of the population. It was a pretty dreadful
:47:48. > :47:53.place at that stage economically and in many other ways. All we have a
:47:54. > :47:59.lot of problems now in Islington as you do in Boston, because of the
:48:00. > :48:04.pressure of a growing population, the pressure it puts on public
:48:05. > :48:08.services and other ways. But the downside of a shrinking population,
:48:09. > :48:13.think of what life would be like in Boston is the population shrank by
:48:14. > :48:17.15%. But that is not going to happen. 80 million, I do not know if
:48:18. > :48:22.you've looked at the physical infrastructure, but in London if we
:48:23. > :48:28.built a desalination plant to provide water, a strange thing for
:48:29. > :48:36.the UK to have to do. It is a densely populated city, as you know,
:48:37. > :48:43.but more broadly, Harriet is right in one sense, as long as we are a
:48:44. > :48:46.member of the EU and if we vote to remain, free movement means we do
:48:47. > :48:52.not have control over numbers, that is right. But there would still be
:48:53. > :48:57.hard choices even if we had control, about economic matters. Just to go
:48:58. > :49:04.to the audience for a second. A little show of hands. I want to get
:49:05. > :49:09.at those of you who accept the migration we have had and I know
:49:10. > :49:13.many of you do not, but whether basically you worry about there
:49:14. > :49:18.being another ten or 20 years of this. So the published a Boston
:49:19. > :49:22.projected to grow at 500 per year for the next couple of decades, how
:49:23. > :49:30.many of you are worried by that prospect? Quite a few of you. And
:49:31. > :49:34.how many of you would be worried, have been worried by what happened
:49:35. > :49:41.in the past ten years? So a lot of you, I'm trying to get at how many
:49:42. > :49:45.more of you are worried about extra growth than previous growth. Any
:49:46. > :49:51.comments on the kind of projections M the lady in the second row. I
:49:52. > :49:57.think we are looking at it from the wrong angle. The idea of the EU, one
:49:58. > :50:01.of the four fundamental freedoms is free movement and I think the best
:50:02. > :50:07.person for the job should get the job. So if there is a job there than
:50:08. > :50:13.anyone within the EU should be entitled to have that job. Just
:50:14. > :50:16.because you're British, just because I'm British, it does not mean that I
:50:17. > :50:24.should be any more entitled to that job than anyone else. And you could
:50:25. > :50:33.compete for a job in Spain or France or Italy.
:50:34. > :50:38.There are always winners and losers, technology is the big winner now and
:50:39. > :50:43.there will be many jobs gone. A lot of people think that we're winning
:50:44. > :50:49.now and will later be last in the words of the song. There are big
:50:50. > :50:56.changes going on around the world and you look at China and India,
:50:57. > :50:59.Ph.D. Students and they will be looking for jobs. If you have free
:51:00. > :51:04.movement of people then they will take some of the jobs that people
:51:05. > :51:13.feel safe with, economist jobs, educators jobs. And that would upset
:51:14. > :51:21.you? People must realise that the winners now will later be last. And
:51:22. > :51:24.there are pressures. There's too much change in the country and we
:51:25. > :51:34.will it. The gentleman with the glasses behind you. We've just got
:51:35. > :51:36.to stop and take stock. Stop talking about and scaring people about how
:51:37. > :51:42.many people are coming in and talking about forging and losing
:51:43. > :51:47.people, you're off your head. You've got to stop think about controlling
:51:48. > :51:53.the amount of people coming into our country. We are a great country, it
:51:54. > :51:58.is Britain. We have survived and lived on the island, we can get back
:51:59. > :52:01.and if we have to leave Europe we will still be able to fish and set
:52:02. > :52:07.our own targets, still be able to buy cheese and wine. No one is going
:52:08. > :52:17.to stop this country from succeeding. The gentleman at the
:52:18. > :52:24.back. Migration over the centuries has brought new ideas, new vibrancy.
:52:25. > :52:28.As a race we are a mongrel race, how far do you want to go back, we had
:52:29. > :52:34.various migration of different centuries. We are a port and we have
:52:35. > :52:39.a great Portuguese community. Migration will bring new ideas and
:52:40. > :52:46.businesses, they will assimilate and become British. The gentleman next
:52:47. > :52:51.to you. I work in a hospital down the road and migration for hospitals
:52:52. > :52:55.has been positive. The hospital across the road would probably have
:52:56. > :53:03.collapsed and been unable to cope with demand, the amount of migrants
:53:04. > :53:09.working there and providing care, where we find that government is
:53:10. > :53:12.cutting British trained nurses and doctors, we have got to bring these
:53:13. > :53:17.people link to deliver care to British people. It is an issue of
:53:18. > :53:22.policy rather than migration. That is a good point, that the numbers
:53:23. > :53:30.coming here have made public services more viable by getting the
:53:31. > :53:37.numbers up. Do you think that is true? I think it is a good point.
:53:38. > :53:43.There was appointed couple of years ago brought up again where they were
:53:44. > :53:48.deciding to close the maternity unit and following that the paediatric
:53:49. > :53:55.unit at the hospital because of their not being enough deliveries.
:53:56. > :54:00.So they said we cannot run the unit. That really would be dreadful for
:54:01. > :54:06.women in labour are trying to make their way to Lincoln or wherever. So
:54:07. > :54:13.I think that is a valid point. Let me come back to my panel for a
:54:14. > :54:19.moment. Just to clarify one thing, are we going to get, some people say
:54:20. > :54:26.let's get our borders back. Are we going to get the water back if we
:54:27. > :54:32.vote for wrecks it? It is not a black-and-white simple yes or no
:54:33. > :54:36.answer. -- vote for Brexit. That is casting a dark shadow over this
:54:37. > :54:40.discussion. The word control is the word that keeps coming back and
:54:41. > :54:44.taking some kind of control over the process. No one is saying we will
:54:45. > :54:48.ban migration from ever happening, no one has said migration is wrong
:54:49. > :54:55.and people should never leave their country. My own story is one of
:54:56. > :55:01.migration and I celebrate that. But I would say we need to have some
:55:02. > :55:05.measure of control. That is what is coming from the audience loud and
:55:06. > :55:09.clear. Are you prepared as others in the Leave campaign to save we do not
:55:10. > :55:16.want to be in a single market because most people seem to agree if
:55:17. > :55:23.we are in that, we lose control. I think that is the basis of the
:55:24. > :55:31.negotiation. I do not know what the terms would be. If they were to say
:55:32. > :55:36.you can only join the single market if you have unrestricted vibration
:55:37. > :55:45.from Europe, I would probably say no. But I think we can reach a
:55:46. > :55:48.discussion, that is the point. Norway and Switzerland are both
:55:49. > :55:51.outside the EU and both part of the single market and one of the
:55:52. > :55:56.conditions for them to do that is to have that free movement. Do you know
:55:57. > :56:06.what proportions of Norwegians want to go in the EU, 72% in the last
:56:07. > :56:11.polled do not want to enter the EU. The numbers have gone up. I come
:56:12. > :56:17.back to the central economic argument and the issue is as the UK
:56:18. > :56:22.do we want access to a 500 million market with investment and sales
:56:23. > :56:27.across Europe. If we do then freedom of movement is part of that and we
:56:28. > :56:33.have got to have controls. You said before we had great control. We have
:56:34. > :56:39.got to have measures, one example, we currently have people where
:56:40. > :56:42.recruitment agencies only recruit in Eastern Europe and local people
:56:43. > :56:47.cannot get access to the jobs. That is not fare so we've got to work on
:56:48. > :56:50.labour market issues and at the same time for the economy we've got to be
:56:51. > :56:56.part of the 500 million single market. Canada has a trade deal with
:56:57. > :56:59.the EU with access to the EU market and they do not have free movement.
:57:00. > :57:10.I do not see why we cannot do something similar. They have access
:57:11. > :57:20.to part of the EU market. Now we need to know what terms we would be
:57:21. > :57:26.going in. You mentioned Norway. I do not want to get into a discussion
:57:27. > :57:29.about the Norwegian option. We are going to get into a programme on
:57:30. > :57:36.that but to be clear, it may be the cost of this discussion would be the
:57:37. > :57:48.single market as well as... Can I ask you, I want to get the opinions
:57:49. > :57:54.of the panel. Is there any potential detriment of voting for Brexit to
:57:55. > :58:00.the EU citizens already here question mark I do not see any
:58:01. > :58:06.because of the principle of British law, things do not act
:58:07. > :58:10.retrospectively. Someone resident here, who has a job here and no
:58:11. > :58:16.other rights to be here other than through the EU. I spoke to one
:58:17. > :58:24.French lady who was terrified that she would be forcibly removed. There
:58:25. > :58:27.are huge scare stories. The Remain people saying that British people in
:58:28. > :58:32.France would be kicked out, this is complete fantasy. It will not
:58:33. > :58:38.happen. There is no legal basis. We cannot change that.
:58:39. > :58:48.David, is that correct, that the people here don't need to worry at
:58:49. > :58:54.all? My point would be, he is quite right, I don't think anyone on the
:58:55. > :58:59.Leave side wants to check people out. The legal practicalities of
:59:00. > :59:04.determining who would qualify, when is the cut-off date, how many years
:59:05. > :59:11.of the last tender you have to live here? Given we don't have records!
:59:12. > :59:21.The complications would be immense. David, last question for you. On the
:59:22. > :59:26.economy, on security, the Leave side were coming up with a proposition to
:59:27. > :59:33.change and in a way your side was saying status quo, comfortable,
:59:34. > :59:38.security. It feels like the boot is on the other foot, is this your
:59:39. > :59:46.biggest vulnerability? There are real challenges. What is your
:59:47. > :59:51.constituency? The key thing I want to see, how do we make the economy
:59:52. > :59:56.work, make free markets work, make free movement work, but at the same
:59:57. > :00:02.time put in some mechanisms, enforcement on housing, enforcement
:00:03. > :00:05.on minimum wages and enforcement on recruitment agencies to make sure we
:00:06. > :00:08.have a fair market and we maximise the skills to grow the economy
:00:09. > :00:12.fairly. We could carry on -
:00:13. > :00:14.maybe we should, but we can't do so on BBC Two for any
:00:15. > :00:17.longer, we're out of time. The issues of how many people
:00:18. > :00:19.live in this country, and who they should be,
:00:20. > :00:21.obviously get to the heart It's not as significant in many
:00:22. > :00:26.parts of the country as it is here, but we've taken a brief tour
:00:27. > :00:29.of the economics and some I hope it all helps contribute
:00:30. > :00:34.to your decision on the big vote. Our next referendum special
:00:35. > :00:36.is on Monday, and before that, I'll be back in
:00:37. > :00:40.the studio tomorrow. Thank you to everybody here for
:00:41. > :01:24.hosting us. At the weekend, most others will be
:01:25. > :01:25.dry, if rather cool. We