:00:09. > :00:17.No way, you don't need to be in the single market to trade. The global
:00:18. > :00:21.body, Switzerland, is not in the European Union. The suggestion of
:00:22. > :00:25.Norway and Iceland doing pretty well, but Bosnia, Serbia and the
:00:26. > :00:29.Ukraine... I think we should remain part of this free trade area. Take
:00:30. > :00:35.Switzerland, for example. Britain would be on the outside. It is as
:00:36. > :00:38.credible as Jean-Claude Juncker joining Ukip.
:00:39. > :00:43.Welcome to a world in which Britain votes to leave the EU.
:00:44. > :00:45.We're here for a special Newsnight with politicians,
:00:46. > :00:48.experts and voters to ask how we might fare.
:00:49. > :00:50.Veteran negotiator Jonathan Powell gives his take on how
:00:51. > :01:00.The markets are in turmoil, and there is a run on the pound. The
:01:01. > :01:04.Prime Minister sent a senior civil servant, played by me, to Brussels
:01:05. > :01:09.to begin scoping negotiations with the EU. Jonathan we are very
:01:10. > :01:13.disappointed but of course you need to be reminded that it is up to you
:01:14. > :01:15.to put forward your suggestions. And the Brexiters give us
:01:16. > :01:25.their upbeat vision of life outside. Outside the EU, Britain is the
:01:26. > :01:31.region's foremost knowledge-based economy. We lead the world in
:01:32. > :01:37.biotech, services, law, education, the audiovisual sector.
:01:38. > :01:40.Hello, welcome to the last of our six referendum specials,
:01:41. > :01:46.each devoted to one big issue in the campaign.
:01:47. > :01:48.Today we're looking at what Britain might be like, outside the EU,
:01:49. > :01:59.We'll ask what kind of country we'd opt to be, and also,
:02:00. > :02:02.what kind of relationship we'd have with the rest of the EU.
:02:03. > :02:04.Now, nothing in life is certain, In or Out.
:02:05. > :02:07.But you don't want to make a choice on June 23rd based on vague thoughts
:02:08. > :02:10.of life outside - you want a specific vision.
:02:11. > :02:13.And if you're thinking of voting to stay in, you surely must ask
:02:14. > :02:18.George Osborne was today painting his picture
:02:19. > :02:28.This is what happens if Britain leaves. The economy shrinks, the
:02:29. > :02:32.value of the pound falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, real
:02:33. > :02:38.wages are hit, as are house prices, and as a result government borrowing
:02:39. > :02:42.goes up. The central conclusions from the Treasury analysis are
:02:43. > :02:44.clear. Voting to leave will push our economy into a recession.
:02:45. > :02:46.Meanwhile, Boris Johnson painted his scene in
:02:47. > :02:51.the Telegraph today - that Britain outside would forge
:02:52. > :02:53.a new relationship "based on free trade and with traditional British
:02:54. > :02:55.leadership on foreign policy, crime-fighting,
:02:56. > :02:56.intelligence-sharing and other intergovernmental
:02:57. > :03:05.Well, we'll see a vision of life outside tonight, and test it too.
:03:06. > :03:07.With us here, our panel of undecided voters.
:03:08. > :03:09.They've been with us for the six programmes,
:03:10. > :03:15.We also have a panel of specialists, to offer their arguments.
:03:16. > :03:19.And a leading politician from each side.
:03:20. > :03:21.For Leave, it is Andrea Leadsom, minister in the Department
:03:22. > :03:30.For Remain, it is former Labour front bencher, Chuka Ummuna.
:03:31. > :03:36.I wonder, before we get stuck in, Andrea Letson, you were in the
:03:37. > :03:46.Treasury under George until the election. I wonder what you made of
:03:47. > :03:48.the Treasury analysis today? Well, generally, economic forecasts are
:03:49. > :03:52.absolutely reliable for one thing and that is that they are always
:03:53. > :03:57.wrong. If you go back in history, show me an economic forecast that
:03:58. > :04:06.was right and I will be amazed. This one in particular, this so-called
:04:07. > :04:10.recession, in fact, just squeaks to -0.1% for four quarters. That is
:04:11. > :04:14.lost in the rounding soba might not be any truth to it. And of course
:04:15. > :04:17.the point is that it makes all these horrendous assumptions about what
:04:18. > :04:21.happens, so an economic forecast is only as good as the assumptions you
:04:22. > :04:27.put into it and I do not accept any of the assumptions. And Treasury
:04:28. > :04:31.officials, have they been duped by the political class? Why would they
:04:32. > :04:37.come up with analysis also? Let's be clear, the Chancellor set up the
:04:38. > :04:41.Office for Budget Responsibility and was very clear when we did it that
:04:42. > :04:46.the problem is that over many years Treasury officials have got the
:04:47. > :04:49.forecast wrong and have persuaded themselves to point in one direction
:04:50. > :04:55.or another. Secondly, it is absolutely clear that an economic
:04:56. > :05:00.forecast is only as good as the input into it. If you are sure, as
:05:01. > :05:03.these forecasts do, that we will be pulling up the drawbridge and we
:05:04. > :05:06.will not be doing any trade with anyone, that we will lose the
:05:07. > :05:09.European Union free trade agreements, that there will be no
:05:10. > :05:14.continuity there, that we will not get the same trade deal, then of
:05:15. > :05:17.course you can make it look as bad as you like. What do you think of
:05:18. > :05:23.the Treasury website? If you click on it, it has a big banner saying
:05:24. > :05:33.that if Britain leaves the EU, recession results. A very solid
:05:34. > :05:37.assertion for what is obviously a rather vague thing. I am very
:05:38. > :05:42.surprised that the Treasury secretary would allow this sort of
:05:43. > :05:45.thing. Chuka Umunna, did you find the announcement convincing or was
:05:46. > :05:48.it overcooked? Nicola Sturgeon warned that it was overcooked. I
:05:49. > :05:52.think they have probably got it about right and that is an unusual
:05:53. > :05:56.thing for a Labour politician to say. We live in extraordinary times
:05:57. > :06:00.and the London School of economics has been critical of the government
:06:01. > :06:06.and of the Treasury for having a conservative estimate of the adverse
:06:07. > :06:11.impact. People like Capital Economics have said they have been
:06:12. > :06:15.to free-flowing. But if you look at a broad swathes of different groups,
:06:16. > :06:18.the governor of the Bank of England, the IMF, different economic
:06:19. > :06:23.organisations, trade unions, there is a broad consensus that if we came
:06:24. > :06:27.out, certainly in the short-term, it would have a negative effect and in
:06:28. > :06:31.the medium to long term, it would as well. I think Andrea has conceded
:06:32. > :06:36.that there would probably be a 1% hit on GDP and I think that would be
:06:37. > :06:37.a bad thing. We should not be playing Russian roulette with jobs.
:06:38. > :06:40.Did not hear her concede that. A quick reminder that we're
:06:41. > :06:42.running our live blog If you go to bbc.co.uk/newsnight
:06:43. > :06:49.you'll find articles, analysis and fact-checking in real
:06:50. > :06:51.time with the show. Let's ask now what kind of country
:06:52. > :06:54.a post-Brexit Britain How would we use the freedoms
:06:55. > :06:58.we gain by unshackling ourselves We can't just let George
:06:59. > :07:00.Osborne answer that. So we asked the Tory MEP Dan Hannan
:07:01. > :07:04.to set out his view for us. He's a passionate outer,
:07:05. > :07:06.and he's on the campaign committee We think it's as good a view
:07:07. > :07:11.of the dominant Leave vision, The only question people ask these
:07:12. > :07:28.days is why it took so long. Outside the EU, Britain
:07:29. > :07:31.is the region's foremost We lead the world in biotech,
:07:32. > :07:39.services, law, education, Outside the EU's clinical trials
:07:40. > :07:46.directive, we are again at Outside the EU's rules on data
:07:47. > :07:54.retention, Hoxton has become the software capital of Europe,
:07:55. > :07:56.the Silicon Valley of Outside the downright malicious
:07:57. > :08:06.rules on pensions, equity and insurance, our financial
:08:07. > :08:10.services are booming. Not only in London but in Edinburgh,
:08:11. > :08:15.Leeds and Birmingham. And our older industries
:08:16. > :08:18.have revived, too. Our farmers, always more innovative
:08:19. > :08:22.than their continental rivals, Our fishing grounds have once again
:08:23. > :08:35.become a great renewable resource. And outside the EU's energy
:08:36. > :08:38.boondoggles, fuel prices have fallen back to world levels,
:08:39. > :08:40.leading to a revival of our steel, cement,
:08:41. > :08:49.ceramics and plastics producers. Britain has raised its eyes
:08:50. > :08:57.to more global horizons. Yes, we still participate
:08:58. > :09:00.in the great European common market that stretches from non-EU Iceland
:09:01. > :09:02.to non-EU Turkey, but we have been able
:09:03. > :09:07.to lift our eyes to more distant, more opulent markets,
:09:08. > :09:08.markets to which we Over the last ten years,
:09:09. > :09:21.every continent on this planet has experienced significant economic
:09:22. > :09:29.growth except Antarctica and Europe. When we joined in 1973,
:09:30. > :09:32.the 28 countries that make up the EU And it is dropping
:09:33. > :09:46.virtually by the minute. We no longer have to pay ?20 billion
:09:47. > :09:50.gross, ?10 billion net every year for the privilege of belonging
:09:51. > :09:52.to the world's only Family incomes have received
:09:53. > :09:58.a triple boost. Food prices are lower outside
:09:59. > :10:00.the common agricultural policy. Fuel bills are lower
:10:01. > :10:02.because energy prices have And taxes are lower
:10:03. > :10:14.because of the independent dividend. And that means more household income
:10:15. > :10:16.for everyone and a general stimulus As the Eurozone continues
:10:17. > :10:19.its genteel decline, Britain has become the leader
:10:20. > :10:25.of a wider European bloc. Those 22 European states
:10:26. > :10:31.and territories that are linked to the EU through a common market,
:10:32. > :10:36.not through political union. No longer are laws handed down to us
:10:37. > :10:47.by Eurocrats invulnerable to public opinion and immune to the ballot
:10:48. > :10:50.box, by indeed European Commissioners who often
:10:51. > :10:52.owe their positions to having been We have recovered that precious
:10:53. > :10:59.right to hire and fire the people Those megabanks, those
:11:00. > :11:13.multinationals that have spent years and spent millions lobbying Brussels
:11:14. > :11:15.to get rules that suit them They are now facing a lot more
:11:16. > :11:19.competition from start-ups Of course the economy
:11:20. > :11:22.as a whole has benefited. The British Eurocrats,
:11:23. > :11:34.the British MEPs who have lost their tax-free,
:11:35. > :11:35.Michelin-starred Or rather, we've been redeployed
:11:36. > :11:40.to the more productive bits Daniel Hannan's picture
:11:41. > :11:45.of Britain outside the EU. It's one that posits
:11:46. > :11:50.an internationalist Britain, a free trader nation, embracing
:11:51. > :11:52.globalisation and with a bonfire Other visions of a Brexit
:11:53. > :11:57.are available - but it has to be said that Dan's there is pretty
:11:58. > :11:59.commonly shared Let's explore it first
:12:00. > :12:11.with our political guests. Andrea Leadsom, are you attracted by
:12:12. > :12:15.the division? Absolutely. If we vote to leave, we will have a ?10 billion
:12:16. > :12:23.a year independence dividends. That is as much as the NHS needs during
:12:24. > :12:27.this Parliament to keep it on the road. ?10 billion a year, so we
:12:28. > :12:31.could give it to him in one year. Simon Stephens says that if the
:12:32. > :12:35.economy does not perform well, the ?10 billion will not get to him. But
:12:36. > :12:42.Dan Hannan said something interesting, that we could lead the
:12:43. > :12:47.world in law, audio sectors, but what is currently stopping us
:12:48. > :12:51.leaving the world they are right now? I can tell you every day, day
:12:52. > :12:59.in, day out, as an energy minister and previously and energy Minister,
:13:00. > :13:04.you are stopped and limited by EU rules and policies and the need to
:13:05. > :13:09.get things agreed. The EU as the sole right to negotiate free-trade
:13:10. > :13:13.agreements, so there are huge limitations from EU directives. The
:13:14. > :13:17.unintended consequences of EU directives, if you allow me I will
:13:18. > :13:21.give you an example. The agency workers directive, in my
:13:22. > :13:25.constituency I have a lot of HGV drivers, and they say to me that the
:13:26. > :13:28.problem with the agency workers directive is that it means that if
:13:29. > :13:33.you are employed through an agency for 12 weeks, you have a permanent
:13:34. > :13:36.contract equivalent. So that is a perfectly good idea but the problem
:13:37. > :13:39.is that what happens is they get laid off after week 11 for a week
:13:40. > :13:44.and a bit and then the clock starts ticking again. So the unintended
:13:45. > :13:48.consequences of a good idea, but when you just make it work across 28
:13:49. > :13:52.member states, it has unintended consequences which are disastrous
:13:53. > :13:56.for people trying to look after a family. But that is an argument for
:13:57. > :14:04.very few employment protections at all. I am a former employment law
:14:05. > :14:06.and I know. The qualification requirement for unfair dismissal is
:14:07. > :14:10.two years and the argument is that when people get near to their, they
:14:11. > :14:17.suddenly do terrible things. The problem with the league campaign is
:14:18. > :14:22.that they can lean back paint this vision -- they paint this vision of
:14:23. > :14:26.a deregulated labour market. Many employment relations will go, a lot
:14:27. > :14:30.of them. We will probably get increased tariffs so if you look at
:14:31. > :14:36.things that you buy on the High Street, 28% of the goods on High
:14:37. > :14:41.Street shelves come from the EU. But on the first point, the deregulated
:14:42. > :14:46.labour market, is it fair to say that if we leave, Britain becomes
:14:47. > :14:49.more deregulated? People like Lord Lawson, the former chairman of Vote
:14:50. > :14:54.Leave, he said that structural reform is crucial to economic reform
:14:55. > :15:00.and it is hard to achieve within the EU. Is that division? The question I
:15:01. > :15:05.am trying to get at, if you like regulation and you want labour
:15:06. > :15:12.protection was, and if there are things you like, should we run a
:15:13. > :15:14.mile from your vision of Brexit, which would be a more deregulated
:15:15. > :15:24.one? If we vote to Leave we wake up and
:15:25. > :15:29.nothing has changed because all of the EU laws and regulations are in
:15:30. > :15:33.UK law. This is an important point because people on the remains I'd
:15:34. > :15:36.like to say there would be no maternity and paternity leave, no
:15:37. > :15:42.constructive dismissal and that is obviously rubbish. On June 24 you
:15:43. > :15:48.wake up and nothing has changed. You have the freedom to then decide if
:15:49. > :15:54.you want to change things so the point is the government of the day
:15:55. > :15:59.then decides with the support of the people in a general election whether
:16:00. > :16:04.or not... You don't want us to leave the European Union to strengthen
:16:05. > :16:12.employment protection. The UK were the first to introduce rules against
:16:13. > :16:17.female genital mutilation. It goes against... It will be the choice of
:16:18. > :16:21.the UK... It goes against everything and Andrea has written pamphlets and
:16:22. > :16:25.signed up to things with free marketeers within the Conservative
:16:26. > :16:32.Party and I respect that is her point of view. The idea that you
:16:33. > :16:37.want to leave the European Union... Can you clarify whether you think a
:16:38. > :16:43.result of leaving the EU would be a Britain that is if you like more
:16:44. > :16:47.deregulated, more like Hong Kong and less if you like continental
:16:48. > :16:53.European? Very specifically in the area of employment law I would not
:16:54. > :16:57.expect to see massive deregulation, I would not expect to see a
:16:58. > :17:01.whittling down of workers rights. You would keep the working Time
:17:02. > :17:13.directive? We would make amendments to it which would suit the UK more.
:17:14. > :17:16.In the NHS people who are learning how to do neurosurgery for example,
:17:17. > :17:22.as things stand with the working Time directive there are real
:17:23. > :17:29.problems... You want to weaken it. I am seeing make it adapt to the UK
:17:30. > :17:38.situation. That means weakening it. Time off, leave? The Dan Hannan
:17:39. > :17:43.vision which sees as doing so much better outside, I just wonder what
:17:44. > :17:47.the active ingredient of making it work is? I assumed a lot of that was
:17:48. > :17:53.about deregulation and I have looked at various people on the Leave side
:17:54. > :17:59.and it implies it is all about deregulation, getting rid of the
:18:00. > :18:04.shackles and it's not that? It's the ability to choose policies. For me
:18:05. > :18:10.as energy Minister, let's get away from employment law because that's a
:18:11. > :18:15.subject which is a red herring. Deregulation... Why is it a red
:18:16. > :18:22.herring? There is not an effort or desire to weaken the workers rights.
:18:23. > :18:28.THEY TALK OVER EACH OTHER You said let's get off employment regulation,
:18:29. > :18:32.get onto something else. The sorts of areas the UK could do better in
:18:33. > :18:37.his negotiating free trade agreements with other parts the
:18:38. > :18:43.world, with the 2.3 billion consumers in the Commonwealth with
:18:44. > :18:49.whom we have ancient ties of culture, language, trade deals. Look
:18:50. > :18:51.at Pakistan and Jamaica, we have deals with them.
:18:52. > :18:53.Let's introduce our broader panel now - Peter Sutherland,
:18:54. > :18:57.former director general at the World Trade Organisation
:18:58. > :19:00.and European commissioner for competition.
:19:01. > :19:02.Ngaire Woods, Dean of the Blavatnik School
:19:03. > :19:08.Kathrine Kleveland, leader of the Norwegian 'No to EU' party.
:19:09. > :19:15.And the former British Ambassador to Warsaw Charles Crawford.
:19:16. > :19:27.Peter Sutherland, we saw that very favourable if you like view of the
:19:28. > :19:31.UK, what was your take on that, the Dan Hannan view? First of all let me
:19:32. > :19:36.make one very important point, at the beginning of this programme two
:19:37. > :19:42.examples were cited, Norway and Switzerland. As what could happen
:19:43. > :19:47.outside the EU. Both of those countries have two apply all EU
:19:48. > :19:51.regulations including the regulations referred to. They have
:19:52. > :19:58.to allow free movement of people and they have to make a contribution in
:19:59. > :20:04.the exact same way as the UK to the budget of the EU. That is a vitally
:20:05. > :20:10.important point. We will come to the negotiations we have and all that.
:20:11. > :20:17.It's a very important point, on the regulatory point, the EU through the
:20:18. > :20:23.creation of an internal market has been the most dynamic force in
:20:24. > :20:30.bringing movement to the European economy that has existed in the last
:20:31. > :20:36.50 years. Why has the economy not been dynamic? Without the EU we
:20:37. > :20:43.would be in a much worse situation as a continent than we are. But why
:20:44. > :20:46.then has the EU, and Dan Hannan said it, the growth rate has not been
:20:47. > :20:52.spectacular, it has grown over the last decade but not very much. Why,
:20:53. > :20:58.if it is such a poor spur competition, why has it been so
:20:59. > :21:02.lacklustre? There are inherent flaws in the political reaction to the
:21:03. > :21:06.dynamics of globalisation in Europe but it is not the EU which has
:21:07. > :21:13.caused the problem. The problem has been mitigated by opening up borders
:21:14. > :21:17.economic borders in Europe. Closing them down, as the Brexit people
:21:18. > :21:22.really want because it will be possible otherwise to remain in a
:21:23. > :21:28.trading relationship, is not the answer. Katherine Kleveland, you are
:21:29. > :21:33.the guest from Norway, you have come here to intrude on our private grief
:21:34. > :21:41.as we have our argument. What is the feeling in Norway about joining up
:21:42. > :21:48.and large? In Norway we are very satisfied being outside the euro,
:21:49. > :21:57.the EU. And still most Norwegians want to be out. We have no majority
:21:58. > :22:02.on every single pole in the question about EU membership for 11 years. So
:22:03. > :22:09.they are not in any doubt, what is it that drives it, is it fresh, is
:22:10. > :22:16.it oil? What makes Norway different to Denmark, Sweden, Finland and so
:22:17. > :22:21.many others? We are satisfied outside the EU and I think it is a
:22:22. > :22:27.lot of things. Democracy, sovereignty. We have had unions by
:22:28. > :22:31.our neighbour countries were sometimes before so we know
:22:32. > :22:42.something about the union. But we have said no in referendums in both
:22:43. > :22:48.1972 and 1994 and still it is hard, it is a very high majority who want
:22:49. > :22:53.to be outside the EU. I think we want to make the decisions
:22:54. > :23:02.ourselves, I think we are very satisfied being outside and yes. We
:23:03. > :23:10.will talk more about the Norway option... I want to say something
:23:11. > :23:16.about the scaremongering, because I directed my soggy scaremongering
:23:17. > :23:20.from the referendum in Norway -- I recognise all the scaremongering. I
:23:21. > :23:23.want to talk about the positive vision for Britain outside of the
:23:24. > :23:32.lies on trade deals signed with countries outside of Europe. India,
:23:33. > :23:36.China, Switzerland has signed a deal with China for example. Can you give
:23:37. > :23:42.us your assessment of the ease with which we will be able to sign those
:23:43. > :23:46.deals? The essence of trade deals is how much market do you have two of
:23:47. > :23:52.the other side? It Switzerland wants to have a trade deal with China it
:23:53. > :23:56.says this is our market, quite small, your market is enormous, we
:23:57. > :24:01.need a treat wheel with you. China says, as they have done, fine, you
:24:02. > :24:07.can give us completely open entry into your economy and we will open
:24:08. > :24:14.up for you to trade into ours in 15 years' time. That is a deal, that is
:24:15. > :24:17.a deal you can do. That is the deal China did with Switzerland. If
:24:18. > :24:21.everybody in the world believed in a free market as a matter of religious
:24:22. > :24:25.faith Britain might have a chance but that's not how it works.
:24:26. > :24:30.Countries say how big is your market and that is the deal we will do.
:24:31. > :24:34.That is why Britain is part of a European market of 500 million and
:24:35. > :24:44.is part of some successful trade deals with more than 60 other
:24:45. > :24:46.countries and that is Britain's market. If Britain wants to
:24:47. > :24:48.negotiate those alone there are two problems, they will always be the
:24:49. > :24:52.rule taker. The big economies will dictate terms. And it takes time, it
:24:53. > :24:57.takes an average 28 months to come up with a trade deal. The reason
:24:58. > :25:03.that is important is that all these flourishing sectors that Dan Hannan
:25:04. > :25:07.talked about need investment. When investors want to come to Britain
:25:08. > :25:10.they want to know two things, they want certainty about what the rules
:25:11. > :25:15.will be and they want a bigger market share. So if Britain says we
:25:16. > :25:20.are not sure what we are going to have, it will take a few years to
:25:21. > :25:26.negotiate and we want have access to a big market, Britain has a problem.
:25:27. > :25:34.-- we will not have access. Is that a problem for the Brexit side? No,
:25:35. > :25:42.Singapore's average time taken is 22 months for free trade agreements.
:25:43. > :25:46.Switzerland has far greater access to world economies than does the EU
:25:47. > :25:53.in terms of the GDP they have access to. And of course the point is that
:25:54. > :25:58.when the UK votes to leave the EU we currently have tariff free trade
:25:59. > :26:01.with the EU so simply what Remain like to say is that tariffs will be
:26:02. > :26:07.hyped but World Trade Organisation rules would prevent that. The
:26:08. > :26:12.imperative to the European economy of continuing to trade freely and
:26:13. > :26:15.have access to the UK market will incentivise an agreement on
:26:16. > :26:19.continued tariff free trade. That will be easily done because we have
:26:20. > :26:26.aligned our goods and services to theirs for the last 43 years. Easier
:26:27. > :26:33.than... That as a whole load of assertion, the first thing to point
:26:34. > :26:42.out. It is vision, Chuka. It is fantasy in my view. 44% of our
:26:43. > :26:49.experts go to the EU -- our exports. On average by percent of the exports
:26:50. > :26:57.come to us -- 5%. In terms of our trade with them, obviously there is
:26:58. > :27:02.balance, I don't argue we will not be able to trade but the question is
:27:03. > :27:06.as has been saved are the terms on which you can trade. I remember when
:27:07. > :27:10.I was Shadow Business Secretary and I went on a trip to Beijing and I
:27:11. > :27:15.met with parts of the Chinese government as you do. They said, why
:27:16. > :27:18.is it there are some people in your country that want to leave the
:27:19. > :27:22.European Union because when you are negotiating with us whether it is
:27:23. > :27:26.trade or whatever it may be you are sitting on one side of the table
:27:27. > :27:30.with half a billion other people and negotiating with our 1.3 billion
:27:31. > :27:36.people. Why do you want to sit in the corner with your 65 million? The
:27:37. > :27:41.question is the terms in which we can get it. People in this debate,
:27:42. > :27:45.one of the criticisms of Barack Obama was that you would never
:27:46. > :27:48.accept, Boris Johnson said you would never accept what we have if you
:27:49. > :27:57.were there the United States but we are not the United States. A poll
:27:58. > :28:04.today of the FTSE 350, the 350 listing companies were asked what
:28:05. > :28:14.the impact of Brexit would be. How many said it would be positive? Can
:28:15. > :28:18.you guess? It was 1%. Are they old alluded, that they don't know how
:28:19. > :28:22.good it will be? Because Dan Hannan says we will be leaders in so many
:28:23. > :28:28.sectors, the companies that Britain currently has clearly don't know. I
:28:29. > :28:31.am amazed you would say that as a BBC journalist because you would
:28:32. > :28:38.know that of the businesses in the UK only about 5% or 12% export to
:28:39. > :28:45.the EU so why would Brexit the better for non-exporters? That's a
:28:46. > :28:51.completely misleading... I think there are around 200,000 companies
:28:52. > :28:57.that export to the EU, the question is how many people do the employee?
:28:58. > :29:02.A lot. This is an odd islands, they are interconnected. Look at the car
:29:03. > :29:06.industry for example, big manufacturing sites in the
:29:07. > :29:09.north-east for examples. If anything negative impacts on those industries
:29:10. > :29:15.it's not just the car industry affected its all of the supply
:29:16. > :29:20.chain, the consumer businesses which service the employees and others in
:29:21. > :29:23.those businesses. In the end our economy is interconnected and it is
:29:24. > :29:27.interconnected with the rest of the world and that is the issue. The
:29:28. > :29:32.rest of the world is the point, what does the UK have going for it? We
:29:33. > :29:41.are the world's fifth guest economy, we have the best contract... THEY
:29:42. > :29:52.TALK OVER EACH OTHER We have so much going for us. I want to talk to the
:29:53. > :29:59.panel of voters. How many of you thought the video of Dan Hannan was
:30:00. > :30:07.realistic? How many of you thought it was not a realistic view? You
:30:08. > :30:10.thought it was too optimistic? I remember in the first and second
:30:11. > :30:15.episode of this series feeling relate upbeat about leaving the
:30:16. > :30:20.European Union but since then I have noticed it has been increasingly
:30:21. > :30:27.difficult to get anybody to substantiate their claims. Last week
:30:28. > :30:30.for example they spoke about ?350 million per week and you asked a lot
:30:31. > :30:36.of questions and they couldn't substantiate it. That is my problem.
:30:37. > :30:41.How many of you felt attracted to Britain which was a bit more
:30:42. > :30:46.deregulated, which was changing the regulations, throwing a lot of them
:30:47. > :30:49.away, is that attractive or unattractive? I think it's quite
:30:50. > :30:58.attractive but I just think it's unrealistic. Why? I just don't think
:30:59. > :31:02.that what Britain would look like if we left. It sounds nice but I don't
:31:03. > :31:10.think it's realistic. Any other views? I just wonder how it will
:31:11. > :31:15.happen. There are some lovely ideas but it looks like a bag of ideas, I
:31:16. > :31:22.don't know how it happens I don't know how to join the dots.
:31:23. > :31:27.Andrea, can you help them out? They are not quite persuaded. They do not
:31:28. > :31:31.have any specific objections but the risk that connection between the
:31:32. > :31:35.description and what you will actually get. I totally understand
:31:36. > :31:39.that and the difficulty for people who are advocating for the UK to
:31:40. > :31:43.leave the EU is that it is impossible, as I have said. Economic
:31:44. > :31:47.forecasts, you can be sure they will always be wrong so it is impossible
:31:48. > :31:52.to say that this is absolutely what it will look like. I feel that you
:31:53. > :31:56.have to look at instead in the rear-view mirror, what do we now?
:31:57. > :32:01.And what we do know, the facts are that this ?10 billion independent
:32:02. > :32:05.dividend, we know we will get that and that he is a huge sum of money.
:32:06. > :32:11.That would mean that we did not need any more policies. I don't want to
:32:12. > :32:14.go back to that. Then we need to look at, what are the advantages of
:32:15. > :32:20.the UK in world terms? Are we big enough to stand on our own two feet?
:32:21. > :32:25.The English, the time zone, the contract law. We have had all that
:32:26. > :32:27.and we need to move on. We have another big chunk to get through.
:32:28. > :32:29.Well, look, we have discussed at some length
:32:30. > :32:35.But there is a second dimension to this -
:32:36. > :32:38.will we have with our old chums in the European Union?
:32:39. > :32:41.Vote Brexit, and on June 24th, talks will start on some kind
:32:42. > :32:44.of new treaty arrangement to govern our relationship with the EU.
:32:45. > :32:47.There has to be some kind of deal to replace the EU treaties.
:32:48. > :32:52.The main challenge is to negotiate new rules
:32:53. > :32:57.There are a range of options that could keep us close
:32:58. > :33:04.There's been a lot of talk of being like Norway.
:33:05. > :33:08.It's out of the EU, but in a group called the EEA with almost full
:33:09. > :33:14.One down from that is being like Switzerland, out of the EU,
:33:15. > :33:21.and only a partial member of the single market.
:33:22. > :33:23.Switzerland can pick and choose what it signs up to.
:33:24. > :33:26.But the EU can pick and choose what access it gives Switzerland.
:33:27. > :33:36.Mostly following the principle that the more access to the EU market,
:33:37. > :33:37.the more strings attached. The backstop option if nothing else
:33:38. > :33:40.is arranged, is simply for Britain to be a member
:33:41. > :33:42.of the World Trade Organisation. No special EU deal, but facing more
:33:43. > :33:49.barriers to European trade. It should be said that the preferred
:33:50. > :33:51.option that Brexiters are coalescing around would place us outside
:33:52. > :33:54.of the single market - Whatever happens in the event
:33:55. > :33:58.of an Out vote, we'll try to negotiate some kind
:33:59. > :34:00.of friendly deal with the EU, as it accounts for
:34:01. > :34:02.44% of our exports. Unfortunately, it's not just down
:34:03. > :34:05.to us, it's also down to them. So how might the conversation
:34:06. > :34:17.with Brussels go? We asked a veteran diplomat
:34:18. > :34:19.to look into that. Jonathan Powell served
:34:20. > :34:21.as Tony Blair's chief of staff in Downing Street; he's
:34:22. > :34:23.firmly for Remaining in, and with the help of a former EU
:34:24. > :34:26.commissioner, Antonio Vittorino, has been imagining the kinds
:34:27. > :34:35.of discussion we might be It is the morning after the night
:34:36. > :34:40.before. Vote Leave has had a surprise victory. The markets are in
:34:41. > :34:44.turmoil and was a run on the pound. The Prime Minister has sent a senior
:34:45. > :34:51.civil servant, played by me, to Brussels to begin negotiations with
:34:52. > :34:53.you. With clear red lines set by the referendum on immigration, budget
:34:54. > :34:57.contributions and sovereignty. As you can imagine, we are very
:34:58. > :35:02.disappointed at the result of the referendum but of course we respect
:35:03. > :35:09.the decision of the British people. But you need to bear in mind that it
:35:10. > :35:17.is up to you to put forward your suggestions. It is up to us to
:35:18. > :35:21.decide how they can be accepted. The first option is to remain in the
:35:22. > :35:27.single market, like Norway. As a member of the European economic
:35:28. > :35:36.area. It has benefits, it is outside the European Union. You are
:35:37. > :35:42.proposing the Norway model which means joining the EEA. But you know
:35:43. > :35:49.very well that being in the single market rings along certain
:35:50. > :35:51.responsibilities, such as the indivisibility of the four freedoms.
:35:52. > :36:00.The free flow of capital services and goods includes also the free
:36:01. > :36:03.flow of people. You cannot take three and leave one out. You are
:36:04. > :36:08.putting those conditions on our memberships of the single market. It
:36:09. > :36:14.would be a rejection of the things the British people have voted for,
:36:15. > :36:17.we cannot do that. I am seeing more than that. I am saying that the
:36:18. > :36:24.development of the single market will be decided by us in Brussels
:36:25. > :36:31.and we will send you the rules to be permitted. In Oslo, this is called
:36:32. > :36:35.government by fax. But we are a serious country, and we must be
:36:36. > :36:38.allowed to have our own special relationship. Why would we not be
:36:39. > :36:41.allowed to have a different relationship to Norway? Norway is a
:36:42. > :36:48.serious country. You cannot say that! But the reality is that we can
:36:49. > :36:54.setup a special arrangement for a former member like you. But let's be
:36:55. > :37:02.frank, we are concerned with other member states who feel tempted to
:37:03. > :37:07.use the British Pathe. So I will not anticipate that there is too much
:37:08. > :37:12.willingness to change the rules of the European Economic Area. The
:37:13. > :37:17.Norwegian option would not work for us. If we had to obey the rules,
:37:18. > :37:23.they will not let us have a free ride. I will try something else. The
:37:24. > :37:28.second option is to leave the EU and rejoin at much like Switzerland,
:37:29. > :37:33.which has over 120 separate agreements. -- rejoin EPTA. But if
:37:34. > :37:38.we cannot be inside of the single market, we would like to be outside
:37:39. > :37:44.it but with free access. We could be in EFTA like Switzerland. What is
:37:45. > :37:47.wrong with being like them? They have an excellent relationship, with
:37:48. > :37:51.separate agreements that they do not have to accept. Why can we not have
:37:52. > :37:55.exactly what they had? They even had a referendum on immigration, to stop
:37:56. > :38:03.immigration into Switzerland. But that is the problem. The Swiss model
:38:04. > :38:09.is broken. The EU refused to accept the decision in the referendum on
:38:10. > :38:12.immigration. And we have put into question the entire agreement with
:38:13. > :38:18.Switzerland. We are putting pressure on them to make an overall revision
:38:19. > :38:23.of the position, the relationship between the EU and Switzerland. How
:38:24. > :38:30.can you expect us to offer you something that we are putting into
:38:31. > :38:33.question? Norway. But we are a bigger country than Switzerland. Why
:38:34. > :38:37.can we not have the relationship that Switzerland have come up with
:38:38. > :38:42.the advantages of the single market, without immigration. Why can we not
:38:43. > :38:45.have our services and free access to the EU? For a simple reason. Because
:38:46. > :38:52.the agreement with Switzerland does not cover services and it does not
:38:53. > :38:57.include financial services, which art in an economic area that is very
:38:58. > :39:02.important. You are not serious about the Swiss model. He would exclude
:39:03. > :39:06.our services from the EU under the circumstances? Yes. That is the
:39:07. > :39:11.system. In which case, we will not go for that option. Even if the
:39:12. > :39:16.Swiss option was on offer, I could not tell the Prime Minister that the
:39:17. > :39:21.services were excluded. That is 80% of our economy. I have to try
:39:22. > :39:25.something else. The third option is a free trade agreement with the EU
:39:26. > :39:28.like Canada, where we control our borders and try to get as much
:39:29. > :39:35.access as we can for goods and services. Yes, we can negotiate a
:39:36. > :39:42.free trade agreement with the UK, as we have done with Canada. It would
:39:43. > :39:47.also be in our interest, I believe. Nevertheless, I must say that this
:39:48. > :39:50.agreement will take time to negotiate. We have negotiated for
:39:51. > :39:56.several years with the Canadians and it has not yet been concluded in the
:39:57. > :40:04.sense of being ratified. I am not optimistic. But we are not Canada,
:40:05. > :40:07.we are your guest trading partner. Germany has a trade deficit with us
:40:08. > :40:12.and they will not want to stop selling Mercedes to us. You will not
:40:13. > :40:17.want to stop selling Portuguese wine to us. Open trade is in your
:40:18. > :40:22.interest. Yes, you are a major trading partner. A big, worldwide
:40:23. > :40:32.economy. But you sell 44% of your goods to us and we only sell to you
:40:33. > :40:36.8%. And you mention the trade deficit, but let's be clear, you
:40:37. > :40:40.have a trade deficit with only two countries, Germany and the
:40:41. > :40:43.Netherlands. They are definitely important countries in the EU
:40:44. > :40:48.economy but you need to bear in mind that there are other member states,
:40:49. > :40:54.and the Germans might be interested in selling you the Mercedes but
:40:55. > :40:58.probably the Polish are much more attached to the idea of free
:40:59. > :41:04.movement of people. And Jonathan, in this conversation we always need to
:41:05. > :41:11.bear in mind, even if only one rejects the agreement, it will not
:41:12. > :41:16.come into force. The three negotiated options will not work. As
:41:17. > :41:21.a negotiator, I always have a back-up, best alternative and I will
:41:22. > :41:25.try that now. The final option is not to seek any special relationship
:41:26. > :41:29.with the European Union but to revert to the World Trade
:41:30. > :41:35.Organisation rules. You could consider that possibility. But
:41:36. > :41:43.probably you should think about it carefully. The question is not the
:41:44. > :41:49.weight of tariffs, the question is the nontariff areas. Administrative
:41:50. > :41:55.rules, consumer protection rules, standards. Do we want to go back to
:41:56. > :41:59.that world? But if you are proposing to impose sanctions on us, we will
:42:00. > :42:02.take measures against you, reciprocal measures under world
:42:03. > :42:06.trade organisation rules. It is awkward to listen to British
:42:07. > :42:12.officials speaking about sanctions and protectionism. But let me say
:42:13. > :42:14.frankly, you need to speak to the opposition at the World Trade
:42:15. > :42:19.Organisation because at the moment you are integrated into the European
:42:20. > :42:24.Union as a group of countries. When you are standing alone, you have to
:42:25. > :42:26.redefine not only your position within the World Trade Organisation
:42:27. > :42:33.but in relation to all the other trading partners. Remember what
:42:34. > :42:39.Barack Obama said here in London a few weeks before the referendum. If
:42:40. > :42:45.you leave the European Union, you go back to the end of the queue. The
:42:46. > :42:51.only other option for Britain would be a customs union like Turkey or an
:42:52. > :42:54.accession agreement like Albania but neither are on the table and we
:42:55. > :42:59.would not want them if they were. I have been negotiating for 40 years
:43:00. > :43:02.and in my opinion this is one of the most difficult negotiating hands I
:43:03. > :43:05.have ever seen. There is a choice on one hand between sovereignty and on
:43:06. > :43:09.the other hand, access to the single market. I will have to go back and
:43:10. > :43:11.tell the Prime Minister that he has to choose.
:43:12. > :43:14.So a bit of mock diplomacy there, from Jonathan Powell.
:43:15. > :43:17.I think it's fair to say that he didn't seem to try very hard
:43:18. > :43:20.in those negotiations - but then he is trying to convince
:43:21. > :43:23.us not to get into them in the first place.
:43:24. > :43:28.Charles Crawford, I don't know if you have 40 years of diplomatic
:43:29. > :43:36.experience, but you have got some. How do you think negotiations would
:43:37. > :43:42.go? Well, can I answer the lady over there who says that she cannot see
:43:43. > :43:51.how we get there? I think part of the problem is imagining time. A 20
:43:52. > :43:55.year period, unscrambling this relationship, it is more realistic
:43:56. > :43:59.than six weeks. That is the first thing to think about. What was
:44:00. > :44:03.revealing about that exchange was that first of all Jonathan Powell is
:44:04. > :44:07.talking to the commission, not talking to other EU governments. And
:44:08. > :44:10.the EU commission brazenly aren't giving us one of the reasons why we
:44:11. > :44:14.should leave, which is that they are saying that we do not want other
:44:15. > :44:19.countries to get it into their heads that you could be like these others.
:44:20. > :44:24.It is really obnoxious. But it is right that we would have to put
:44:25. > :44:30.forward a plan. And I think the key difference I have with you is how
:44:31. > :44:38.far we would want to go in terms of leaving the single market. There is
:44:39. > :44:42.a case to be made for having an arrangement like the EEA, at least
:44:43. > :44:48.as a first step. The EU is currently not going to be able to sustain
:44:49. > :44:52.itself because of the Eurozone problems. The EEA option is
:44:53. > :44:57.basically the Norway option? Hang on, that involves free movement. So
:44:58. > :45:01.are you saying that we go through all of this and we still are going
:45:02. > :45:06.to have free movement of people at the end, potentially? You are going
:45:07. > :45:11.to have rules which apply to everybody. Within the European
:45:12. > :45:15.Union, within the single market space, if you stay within the single
:45:16. > :45:19.market of the logic is that you have to carry on with some arrangement
:45:20. > :45:22.for free movement of people. Without any control over those rules, that
:45:23. > :45:29.is the problem for the Swiss and the Norwegians. They have no control
:45:30. > :45:36.over the rules. Andrea Leadsom, can you envisage any Out a scenario in
:45:37. > :45:44.which free movement continues as it is? Certainly not where free
:45:45. > :45:46.movement was uncontrollable. Immigration has been a good thing,
:45:47. > :45:51.where it is connected to the skills we need and it is manageable. The
:45:52. > :45:57.problem with immigration has been the uncontrollable volumes of it,
:45:58. > :46:01.with the skills that we do not need. What I'm getting at, is it the
:46:02. > :46:08.position of the Leave campaign, should the voters are shown that we
:46:09. > :46:12.leave the single market in order not to have free movement? I think what
:46:13. > :46:16.voters should think from the leave side is that we would not have
:46:17. > :46:22.uncontrolled immigration. So we would leave the single market? In my
:46:23. > :46:27.opinion, yes, we would. But the trouble is... Are we going to have
:46:28. > :46:34.our cake and eat it? If we leave the single market, yes. We would not
:46:35. > :46:37.have free movement. I think it is possible, look, there is a big
:46:38. > :46:43.omelette here and we will not be able to turn it into 28 ex. That is
:46:44. > :46:45.for sure. We're going to have to negotiate transitional arrangements
:46:46. > :46:50.of some sort and we are going to have to stay in Europe. We are not
:46:51. > :46:56.going to float off to the Pacific somewhere. The real issue is how you
:46:57. > :47:01.go in there with a firm, coherent, step-by-step approach. For me, the
:47:02. > :47:05.main reason for leaving is because I think, I really do think, that the
:47:06. > :47:09.European Union with the Eurozone problem is becoming increasingly
:47:10. > :47:13.risky to stay in. But do you really think that we will be immune from
:47:14. > :47:17.what happens in the Eurozone if we leave the European Union? At least
:47:18. > :47:21.with us being around the table, we have some prospect of actually
:47:22. > :47:26.shaping and influencing what happens in the European Union. And let's not
:47:27. > :47:32.forget, and I say to the voters here, this is the biggest economic
:47:33. > :47:36.block near us. The single market, as it currently is, is our domestic
:47:37. > :47:40.market. If we leave the European Union, all of these big global
:47:41. > :47:44.issues that we have, we are not going to be immune from their
:47:45. > :47:48.impact. Take migration, immigration is what we have been talking about,
:47:49. > :47:51.and how did that start? It started because of instability and problems
:47:52. > :47:56.in the Middle East and growing jihad is in Africa to a lesser extent.
:47:57. > :48:00.That is not going to go away if we leave the European Union. The
:48:01. > :48:03.question is not us being trampled over by European partners, and nine
:48:04. > :48:07.times out of ten when there is a vote on the council, and it is the
:48:08. > :48:11.European Council and Parliament that make the laws, not the commission.
:48:12. > :48:21.When there are votes on that, we are with the majority. In the majority
:48:22. > :48:28.of cases. Nine out of ten times, and we can amplify that. I am a lawyer
:48:29. > :48:31.and I deal with the law. How we amplify British influence, that is
:48:32. > :48:37.what this is about. Where we have protested and gone against, where we
:48:38. > :48:41.have asked for a special deal, we have never yet managed to achieve, I
:48:42. > :48:45.cannot think of a time where we have actually been accepted and agreed
:48:46. > :48:54.with and taken into account. But that is nonsense. Peter Sutherland.
:48:55. > :49:01.First of all that is nonsense, Schengen, Eurozone, there has been a
:49:02. > :49:08.great attempt and there will continue to be a great attempt to
:49:09. > :49:13.accommodate and be as good as we can be in maintaining relationships with
:49:14. > :49:18.the United Kingdom but the bottom line is that the alternatives which
:49:19. > :49:24.were on the programme in the Jonathan Powell extract are the only
:49:25. > :49:31.alternatives and nobody on the Brexit side from the beginning of
:49:32. > :49:37.this debate has been willing to say this is the route we are going to
:49:38. > :49:43.take because they all have huge flaws. We have heard Andrea Leadsom
:49:44. > :49:47.say, willing to give up full membership of the single market as
:49:48. > :49:54.is is currently comprise so that gives us a clear picture. If that is
:49:55. > :50:00.the case it will include almost certainly services being excluded
:50:01. > :50:08.from the internal market. That is 80% of the British economy. I am
:50:09. > :50:15.going to let Katherine in. From the Norwegian point of view the EEA
:50:16. > :50:22.agreement is much better than EU membership but still we in my
:50:23. > :50:27.organisation want to get rid of the EEA agreement. You want to go back
:50:28. > :50:33.down to something else? We want to negotiate and other trade agreement
:50:34. > :50:39.because by the EEA agreement we have to accept a lot of the EU laws and
:50:40. > :50:46.regulations and we want to decide ourselves and I am quite sure that
:50:47. > :50:51.the UK will have the possibility to make a good trade agreement both
:50:52. > :50:57.because you want it and need it and because the EU want it and need it.
:50:58. > :51:03.We have established something very important which is that the dominant
:51:04. > :51:05.view of the Leave containers is exit the single market because that's the
:51:06. > :51:14.only way to get a significant amount of sovereignty back. Ngaire Woods,
:51:15. > :51:19.how damaging or not damaging would that sacrificing full membership of
:51:20. > :51:25.the single market be? The only scenario in which it's not damaging
:51:26. > :51:29.is the scenario where Britain continues to abide by all EU
:51:30. > :51:33.regulation as a venue had to say why leave? It feels to me that at the
:51:34. > :51:37.essence of this is that there is a big part of the Leave campaign which
:51:38. > :51:42.is let's run away from a scary ghost and what is that ghost? That ghost
:51:43. > :51:48.was the European Union which was dreamt up 30 years ago, ever closer
:51:49. > :51:53.union. That is gone, there is no such European Union any more. The
:51:54. > :51:57.European Union has been hugely modified over the last six years.
:51:58. > :52:03.The Eurozone is moving more quickly towards something? I think the
:52:04. > :52:10.Eurozone crisis which began in Greece has put a huge crack, the
:52:11. > :52:19.migration crisis has put a crack through Schengen. There is not a
:52:20. > :52:24.majority of politicians in Europe crying for an ever closer EU any
:52:25. > :52:30.more, that is ten years out of date. This scary ghost people want to run
:52:31. > :52:37.away from simply isn't there. Ngaire that is so not the case. Look at the
:52:38. > :52:40.five Presidents report, they want to synchronise insolvency law, company
:52:41. > :52:49.law, they want to bring in place fiscal union, fiscal transfers from
:52:50. > :52:55.Germany to Greece. How would you deal with banks too big to fail? I
:52:56. > :53:02.will come back to that but an employment in Greece is about 50%,
:53:03. > :53:06.in Italy 38%, for five years. It is destroying a lifetime for those
:53:07. > :53:11.kids. The migration crisis is forcing people to put up barbed wire
:53:12. > :53:15.fences. This is a Schengen area in absolute crisis and there are
:53:16. > :53:19.solution, of the commission, is closer union, you are so wrong if
:53:20. > :53:25.you think it's yesterday's issue. That debate has been well made. An
:53:26. > :53:27.employed people are not crying out for more European Union. -- who
:53:28. > :53:42.employed. I can agree. Bill implied. We have another point, are you
:53:43. > :53:47.worried about the sacrifice of service trade with the EU if we say
:53:48. > :53:51.we will give up the full membership of the single market? We are happy
:53:52. > :53:55.to what a way because then we can control who comes into our country
:53:56. > :54:01.but now our banks for example don't have a passport to operate around
:54:02. > :54:05.the EU? That is a great big red herring. The city is going nowhere.
:54:06. > :54:11.Financial services in the UK employs 2 million people. It is a successful
:54:12. > :54:15.industry which stretches from Aberdeen to Manchester to Birmingham
:54:16. > :54:20.to Bournemouth to Northampton to the city. Canary Wharf is as big as
:54:21. > :54:24.downtown Frankfurt financial services. There is no other
:54:25. > :54:28.financial services Centre in the entire of Europe. We compete with
:54:29. > :54:35.New York, Hong Kong and Singapore. It is going nowhere. The European
:54:36. > :54:39.Union needs access to the UK financial services market, no
:54:40. > :54:46.question. It is amazing that that can be said when the IMF, the
:54:47. > :54:52.governor of the Bank of England, the clear argument that needing a single
:54:53. > :54:56.passport as a financial operator to operate all around Europe is
:54:57. > :55:03.crucial, is crucial to where you operate from. It entitles you to
:55:04. > :55:09.operate across Europe and if you lose it you lose the right to
:55:10. > :55:16.operate. Then you have to open a subsidiary in the European zone.
:55:17. > :55:22.That is a big red herring. But there are disadvantages. There are not
:55:23. > :55:25.actually. But then your subsidiary serving a client import school has
:55:26. > :55:29.to get the agreement of the Portuguese regulator or a Spanish
:55:30. > :55:37.regulator. The regulatory rules are different. They are not very
:55:38. > :55:42.different at all. That is such a red herring, it's not going to stop
:55:43. > :55:46.financial services. We have just learnt in 2008 what happens to an
:55:47. > :55:50.economy if it loses access to wholesale financial markets. If the
:55:51. > :55:54.banking system collapses and stopped lending to each other you have
:55:55. > :55:59.meltdown in the economy. The financial services centre is in the
:56:00. > :56:03.UK, European countries will need to continue to access UK-based
:56:04. > :56:11.financial services. We recognise a lot of the scaremongering from the
:56:12. > :56:18.referendum in 1994 and everything was for us, we did not lose 100,000
:56:19. > :56:24.jobs, the investment did not dry up. We had a successful economy and we
:56:25. > :56:34.have low and employment so we wish you welcome out. Chuka Umunna, do
:56:35. > :56:40.you think the EU will play hardball with the UK if we leave and if they
:56:41. > :56:43.are going to play hardball does that not say we should be wary about
:56:44. > :56:48.treating these people as our friends, is that an argument for
:56:49. > :56:54.staying because they will be bad to us if we leave? These are not our
:56:55. > :56:58.enemies, they are our friends but I think the idea they would give us a
:56:59. > :57:03.deal, full access to the single market, and ability to shape its
:57:04. > :57:07.rules, not paying to be part of it and having all the benefits, the
:57:08. > :57:11.idea they would give us that kind of deal that they don't even give
:57:12. > :57:14.themselves is for the stars, is for the birds if that's the right
:57:15. > :57:21.expression. I don't see that happening. In the end it's about
:57:22. > :57:26.future generations and ensuring they have access to the opportunities we
:57:27. > :57:30.have had and then some. The simple fact is that the world is different
:57:31. > :57:33.now, it is interconnected and I think we should be self-confident
:57:34. > :57:37.enough to bleed we can continue to do what we have always done very
:57:38. > :57:40.well which is punch above our weight. A lot of the heads of
:57:41. > :57:44.government and ministers I have spoken to in the EU, one of the
:57:45. > :57:49.reasons they worry about the UK leaving is because they recognise
:57:50. > :57:52.the value of our traditional role of leadership within it. Far from being
:57:53. > :57:56.trampled over. You speak to so many people in the EU and they will
:57:57. > :58:00.complain about the exercise of British influence because we shape
:58:01. > :58:03.so much which goes on it. I want to give you the last word Andrea,
:58:04. > :58:10.interesting debate about what it will look like. I have three
:58:11. > :58:15.children, 20, 18 and 12 and the best thing I can say is that my views are
:58:16. > :58:19.all about their future. I believe the future will be brilliant outside
:58:20. > :58:23.of the EU and if we stay with the EU are trade is completely flat-lining
:58:24. > :58:27.and it has done for ten years. They are in a disastrous position and if
:58:28. > :58:35.we leave the future is very bright. Thank you all. That's the last one,
:58:36. > :58:39.panel, you have heard the debate. You are not a scientifically
:58:40. > :58:44.representative panel, you were selected by a polling company, not
:58:45. > :58:47.by us, because you were undecided at the beginning of the six programmes
:58:48. > :58:55.and because you could come in for six programmes! Thank you for that.
:58:56. > :59:02.How many of you are now 100% sure how you will vote, how many have
:59:03. > :59:10.fully made up your mind? How many of you are feeling one way or another?
:59:11. > :59:18.OK. This is the big one, this is not scientific, how many of you would
:59:19. > :59:27.vote Leave? Angela. How many are feeling Remain? Were you genuinely
:59:28. > :59:33.undecided at the beginning of this? That is a great panel! What was
:59:34. > :59:37.going through your mind? I don't want to believe the scaremongering
:59:38. > :59:43.but the economy is in a perilous state at the moment. Recession could
:59:44. > :59:52.be absolutely costly. And the Scottish question, if Britain votes
:59:53. > :00:00.out, could all that open up again? I came here as undecided, leaning
:00:01. > :00:05.towards in but as I listen to the arguments I wanted to move out. But
:00:06. > :00:11.my concern is not for me it is for my family, children and
:00:12. > :00:16.grandchildren. Basically I cannot see any any benefit in leading the
:00:17. > :00:22.EU. It makes us safer, it makes our economy stronger and I can see any
:00:23. > :00:29.of that. In any case I trust my Prime Minister with what he says. We
:00:30. > :00:35.have elected a government and he says and he cannot make anything,
:00:36. > :00:40.make it up. So I put my trust in him and what I hear. A lot of people
:00:41. > :00:48.groaning as you say that! Angela you said you would vote Out, what
:00:49. > :00:54.century that way? I see it as in parliament, governing our own rules,
:00:55. > :01:00.sovereignty. We are a powerful country, we can stand on our two
:01:01. > :01:05.feet and go for it. I have heard some powerful arguments on both
:01:06. > :01:13.sides but I think the way we operate and the way we are, we have had so
:01:14. > :01:17.many negative relationships with some of the directors and the
:01:18. > :01:23.policies which have happened recently that I don't think we are
:01:24. > :01:28.suitable. We need to leave it there, that's all we have time for, thank
:01:29. > :01:32.you to the panel of voters, you have been loyal and stuck with it so
:01:33. > :01:36.thanks to you and thank you to our expert guests and Andrea Leadsom and
:01:37. > :01:43.Chuka Umunna. Emily will be in the chair tomorrow, I will see you on
:01:44. > :01:50.Wednesday. Good night.