:00:10. > :00:12.We've heard a lot about what we think, so what does
:00:13. > :00:23.There will maximum be two years to negotiate. It could be done quicker.
:00:24. > :00:27.I would be in favour of a very quick solution to this.
:00:28. > :00:29.Brussels won't be happy if we take the Tippex to Heath's signature.
:00:30. > :00:32.We'll look at what happens on Friday, if we do.
:00:33. > :00:34.Former Tory leader, and Brexiteer, Michael Howard will take us
:00:35. > :00:39.Also tonight, we take our referendum truck to Bognor Regis,
:00:40. > :00:45.Is it a problem if you guys take us out, and the young wanted to be in?
:00:46. > :00:49.I'm thinking beyond the next five or ten years, which I don't think
:00:50. > :01:01.the politicians are, and I'm thinking for my grandchildren.
:01:02. > :01:05.And more to the point, they will know, too.
:01:06. > :01:08.The rest of the EU will find out what has hit it.
:01:09. > :01:11.The first meeting of the European Council is a week tomorrow.
:01:12. > :01:15.That's when the European reaction will be crystallised.
:01:16. > :01:19.If we vote to leave, they'll have a lot to talk about.
:01:20. > :01:24.Could it even be that the other 27 leaders meet ahead of time,
:01:25. > :01:27.or ask David Cameron to take a short walk, while they work out
:01:28. > :01:32.The big question in the event of Brexit is what the new UK-EU
:01:33. > :01:38.Then there's a smaller, tactical question, too;
:01:39. > :01:40.do we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?
:01:41. > :01:43.Article 50 provides for a nation to leave the EU.
:01:44. > :01:46.It gives us a system to negotiate our way out.
:01:47. > :01:49.But it imposes a time limit, too, that may not be very helpful
:01:50. > :01:54.Our diplomatic editor Mark Urban has been visiting European capitals,
:01:55. > :02:13.to get the view of Brexit from there.
:02:14. > :02:23.Across Europe, the ministers and bureaucrats are thinking the
:02:24. > :02:27.unthinkable. A British exit from the EU may be imminent. We've been
:02:28. > :02:31.travelling through some key countries in northern Europe, trying
:02:32. > :02:32.to get a handle on how they'd deal with it, what arguments they might
:02:33. > :02:48.deploy in talks. In Denmark, they know about saying
:02:49. > :02:52.no to the EU. Denmark's vote against the Maastricht Treaty 24 years ago
:02:53. > :02:57.is just one example of when a referendum has derailed EU plans,
:02:58. > :03:00.and what has tended to happen in the past is that the commission has gone
:03:01. > :03:04.back to the drawing board and crafted a new offer. So the first
:03:05. > :03:07.dilemma that other European countries would face if Britain
:03:08. > :03:16.voted for Brexit is whether to offer a better deal to the UK. Former
:03:17. > :03:19.members of the commission, the EU civil service, suggest it would be
:03:20. > :03:27.hard to come up with further concessions for the UK. With all the
:03:28. > :03:32.challenges now, will the economic situation in Europe, will Russia and
:03:33. > :03:36.Putin, with the security issues, with terrorism, and immigrants, they
:03:37. > :03:41.would not be a lot of appetite to spend too much time on finding these
:03:42. > :03:45.solutions. Remember, the other thing, that they gave Britain,
:03:46. > :03:51.basically, what the British government asked for. They think
:03:52. > :03:57.they have been forthcoming already. So I just think it is still
:03:58. > :04:02.extremely risky, what could happen after there would be a no.
:04:03. > :04:07.Underlying all talks would be a fear of other nations trying to get their
:04:08. > :04:11.own bespoke deals. I think first of all the commission would try to
:04:12. > :04:17.avoid precedents, they certainly would not support a solution which
:04:18. > :04:27.could create appetite for other member states to follow the British
:04:28. > :04:30.example. For that reason, many European politicians feel further
:04:31. > :04:37.concessions after Britain's vote would be pointless, and argue that
:04:38. > :04:44.27 would want to move swiftly and to Britain's exit talks. In principle,
:04:45. > :04:49.I would say that there should be no doubt that a No vote, that is a vote
:04:50. > :04:58.to leave the EU, should be respected. And, after that, I also
:04:59. > :05:03.think that we should go for a quick decision, according to the EU
:05:04. > :05:09.treaty, there will maximum be two years to negotiate. It could be done
:05:10. > :05:16.quicker. I would be in favour of a very quick solution to this. The
:05:17. > :05:22.Sicilian Hof Palace was built in an English style a century ago. It is
:05:23. > :05:27.located in Potsdam in Germany. Allied leaders met here after the
:05:28. > :05:31.Second World War to shape the peace come and to prevent Germany from
:05:32. > :05:38.rising again to military domination of Europe. The summit that would
:05:39. > :05:42.follow a Brexit, inevitably nations would take different positions.
:05:43. > :05:47.European politicians tell us the French the Italians and possibly the
:05:48. > :05:50.Spanish could be expected to want the toughest possible terms for
:05:51. > :05:57.Britain. The Scandinavians and Dutch, on the other hand, would want
:05:58. > :06:00.to be as reasonable as they could. And in between, synthesising those
:06:01. > :06:05.different positions, and providing leadership, as in so many recent
:06:06. > :06:14.crises for the EU, would be Chancellor Merkel's Germany. Germany
:06:15. > :06:22.will be very exposed in the EU, and Germany will get more or less
:06:23. > :06:26.automatically the only leadership fall. Germany will be whether
:06:27. > :06:31.Germany wants it or not, and we can tell you Germany doesn't want it,
:06:32. > :06:38.they will have to accent leadership in the European Union, and I'm not
:06:39. > :06:45.sure, but if this is something that the British would clearly want.
:06:46. > :06:49.Contagion, euro scepticism, is present in Germany of course. The
:06:50. > :06:55.AFD, or all turn it for Germany party has been eating into the
:06:56. > :06:58.Chancellor's vote of late. -- alternative for Germany. The leader
:06:59. > :07:02.would rather Britain stays in to fight for reform and believes the
:07:03. > :07:06.project is in serious trouble. We have already seen that projects on
:07:07. > :07:13.the integration have failed, for example the euro. As attempts to
:07:14. > :07:17.have a common migration policy, or turn at off common social policies.
:07:18. > :07:22.So whatever the EU commission does, we will see that the problems will
:07:23. > :07:25.become even more evident on a European level, and therefore I
:07:26. > :07:35.think with Britain or without Britain, the EU will have to change.
:07:36. > :07:42.This is the where the -- the Bundesrat, where the leaders of
:07:43. > :07:47.Germany's states meet. What strategy with a advocate? If the views of
:07:48. > :07:54.Chancellor Merkel's president are anything to go by, even single
:07:55. > :08:14.market access on Swiss or Norwegian terms must be ruled out for Britain.
:08:15. > :08:20.Another minister president from Angela Merkel's party, though, took
:08:21. > :08:22.a more moderate line, arguing a way would have to be found to create a
:08:23. > :08:41.new relationship. In Berlin's fortress-like
:08:42. > :08:48.chancellery, Angela Merkel would have two balance those different use
:08:49. > :08:52.within her party and within the EU. Just how hard a bargain to drive,
:08:53. > :08:58.how far to protect German markets in the UK, this is prioritising the
:08:59. > :09:05.survival of the EU project as a whole. Germany has an interest to
:09:06. > :09:16.show all the other Eurosceptics, let's say maybe parts of Denmark,
:09:17. > :09:22.the Netherlands, maybe the Poles, that they have something to lose.
:09:23. > :09:26.That is why they have to be tough on Britain, after the article 50 is
:09:27. > :09:30.involved. It might seem like the most rigid diplomacy imaginable,
:09:31. > :09:35.stay in or we will make an example of you. But today there are many
:09:36. > :09:40.here, and elsewhere in Europe, who insist they are in earnest. Mark
:09:41. > :09:41.Urban there. Well, most of the other
:09:42. > :09:43.Europeans hope the Brexit One person who hopes it
:09:44. > :09:47.will is Michael Howard, former Home Secretary and former
:09:48. > :09:56.leader of the Conservative Party. Now Lord Howard. A very good evening
:09:57. > :10:00.to you. First of all, do you think if we vote for Brexit on Thursday,
:10:01. > :10:05.as I think you once said, it's worth pausing for a month to see if a
:10:06. > :10:09.better offer comes along, remaining in the EU, and then we maybe have a
:10:10. > :10:12.second referendum and discuss whether the new terms are
:10:13. > :10:16.acceptable? I think there's something to be said for that. I
:10:17. > :10:20.don't think we would make any approach, we would have voted to
:10:21. > :10:25.leave, but if the Europeans came forward with some other offer, which
:10:26. > :10:30.looked credible, I personally would be prepared to talk to them about
:10:31. > :10:36.it. Even though we have just voted to leave, and it is OK, guys, you
:10:37. > :10:40.can stay in? It depends on what terms. What would it need to be for
:10:41. > :10:45.a Prime Minister to go back to a country and say look, let's do it
:10:46. > :10:50.all again? Look, it might not happen, and it would be up to them.
:10:51. > :10:53.It would need to be a fundamental and far-reaching reform, which David
:10:54. > :10:58.Cameron originally asked for in his speech. But that's not going to
:10:59. > :11:02.happen. If that's not bad to happen, there would be no point in talking.
:11:03. > :11:07.On Friday, fuming that doesn't happen, and maybe you want to wait a
:11:08. > :11:14.few days, -- assuming, do you invoke article 50? I am not in charge, but
:11:15. > :11:20.I think that is the logical thing to do. I agree with Mr Rasmussen, who
:11:21. > :11:25.thought it would be a rather quick negotiation. He is wrong when he
:11:26. > :11:32.says there is a two-year limit. It can be extended. By unanimity. It is
:11:33. > :11:35.Germany who calls the shots, and forgot to two years and Angela
:11:36. > :11:39.Merkel were still in office and wanted it extended, it would jolly
:11:40. > :11:43.well be standard. Tell us why someone on your side of this are
:11:44. > :11:48.keen not to invoke article 50 very quickly, because the official Leave
:11:49. > :11:56.campaign is we don't need to do that for a while, we can sit and light a
:11:57. > :11:59.cigar. I agree with the tours. Some are even saying, John Redwood has
:12:00. > :12:06.told this programme this afternoon, you don't ever have to invoke
:12:07. > :12:11.Article 50. Why do it? That is to respect the Treaty of Lisbon which
:12:12. > :12:17.others would reject. I have told you what I would think would happen. So
:12:18. > :12:21.we invoke article 50 at a reasonable price? Yes. And it doesn't bother
:12:22. > :12:25.you that the clock is ticking against us and they could string it
:12:26. > :12:30.out, we get a worse deal? What we have got to get it into our heads is
:12:31. > :12:34.that we will not be supplicants. We are the fifth biggest economy in the
:12:35. > :12:43.world, they sell us what much more than we sell them, they will not
:12:44. > :12:48.what of their nose to spite their face. Your specific concern, the
:12:49. > :12:52.reason you feel so strongly, is about the sovereignty of Parliament,
:12:53. > :12:55.and the court of the European court of justice back and tell Parliament
:12:56. > :13:00.what it is able to do and not. And it is about to do that. I think
:13:01. > :13:04.Thursday may be our last chance to vote for a democratic self-governing
:13:05. > :13:08.country. People don't understand that the European court of justice
:13:09. > :13:15.now has the power to overrule Acts of Parliament. It has already
:13:16. > :13:18.overruled an act of the Scottish parliament, the first act, actually,
:13:19. > :13:23.passed by the SNP when it got a majority in the Scottish Parliament,
:13:24. > :13:27.and an act that was passed by our Parliament in 2014, which the Home
:13:28. > :13:30.Secretary said was critical to protecting children, fighting
:13:31. > :13:33.terrorism and commenting crime, is coming before the European court of
:13:34. > :13:39.justice, of course not before Thursday, but in a few weeks' time,
:13:40. > :13:43.and they would be perfectly entitled, as things stand, to strike
:13:44. > :13:47.it out, to overrule it. And you know, Evan, there was a passage in
:13:48. > :13:52.the Queen's speech, which said the government pledges to uphold the
:13:53. > :13:57.sovereignty of Parliament, and the primacy of the House of Commons.
:13:58. > :14:01.Those words are not worth the paper they are written on as long as we
:14:02. > :14:06.remain members of the European Union. Right, and that's because if
:14:07. > :14:10.you join a club like that, somebody has to be the final arbiter between
:14:11. > :14:16.whether you have obeyed the rules of the club or not. The keywords are if
:14:17. > :14:20.you join a club like that. I quite agree, if you have a club that is
:14:21. > :14:23.limited to economic issues, trade issues, you have to have some
:14:24. > :14:26.adjudication on the trade issues, but the Charter of fundamental human
:14:27. > :14:32.rights goes far, far beyond that, and they can override practically
:14:33. > :14:35.anything our Parliament would pass. I understand the point you are
:14:36. > :14:41.making, there are many on your side of the debate to say letters not
:14:42. > :14:46.wait for the two years to be up, or the four years to be up while we in
:14:47. > :14:51.the go shoot our exit from the EU. If we vote leave, we need to pass a
:14:52. > :14:56.bill amending the European Community 's act of 1972, where Ted Heath got
:14:57. > :15:00.a sin. We need to amend that Bill to stop the European court of justice
:15:01. > :15:06.for example being able to tell us whether we have our Data Protection
:15:07. > :15:11.Act or not, our data use act or not. Do you believe we should change the
:15:12. > :15:15.law before we have negotiated our exit, or should we wait until we
:15:16. > :15:21.finally have agreed an exit. We might well have to do that. Do what?
:15:22. > :15:26.We might well have to legislate before the end of the negotiation.
:15:27. > :15:29.Suppose you had a two-year period and then it was extended and so on,
:15:30. > :15:33.we are not going to wait forever, not going to wait for four years
:15:34. > :15:36.before making it clear that our Parliament is supreme. If the
:15:37. > :15:41.negotiation is a quick thing, and it should be, there is a food trade
:15:42. > :15:42.area from Iceland to Turkey, so the obvious solution would be let's have
:15:43. > :15:51.a free trade area. You are contemplating passing a law,
:15:52. > :15:55.Parliament passing a bill, in breach of our treaty obligations. If that
:15:56. > :16:00.is necessary I would support it. Is this meant to be a way to a
:16:01. > :16:06.harmonious separation from the EU? Will this lead to them being well
:16:07. > :16:09.disposed to giving us a good deal? I don't think it would be necessary,
:16:10. > :16:13.if they want a harmonious relationship which they should do
:16:14. > :16:18.and we should do, it was Jack Delors who said if the United Kingdom
:16:19. > :16:20.doesn't want to agree to further European integration we should have
:16:21. > :16:27.a different relationship with them, a friendly relationship. How long do
:16:28. > :16:30.we give them before we start passing laws that basically unilaterally
:16:31. > :16:34.say, stuff you, we are not part of your club anymore and we will not
:16:35. > :16:40.negotiate? First of all, I will not be in charge. But you are providing
:16:41. > :16:44.guidance. It would be ridiculous to set out arbitrary deadlines. It is
:16:45. > :16:48.the official policy of Vote Leave that we should do this very quickly
:16:49. > :16:55.after we leave, not waiting two years, within weeks we should say,
:16:56. > :16:59.sorry guys, the European Court will not be telling us what to do. I'm
:17:00. > :17:01.happy with that because I have a fundamental objection to the
:17:02. > :17:05.European Court telling us what to do, it is fundamentally undemocratic
:17:06. > :17:09.and we never signed up to that. Tony Blair promised us that the Charter
:17:10. > :17:13.of fundamental rights did not apply to us, we never signed up to it,
:17:14. > :17:16.that's the point! So you are happy with a position as Vote Leave has
:17:17. > :17:21.suggested that we pass laws in breach of the our treaty
:17:22. > :17:27.obligations, if you like, without having negotiated? If I have to do
:17:28. > :17:32.that, yes, but I'm in favour of a quick negotiation as Mr Rasmussen
:17:33. > :17:38.intimated and its possible and desirable. My understanding is Vote
:17:39. > :17:42.Leave want to do it not given the EU 18 months, or two years, to sort it
:17:43. > :17:45.out, they want to do it in a few weeks. There is no way we will sort
:17:46. > :17:51.it out in three or four weeks, that spy in the sky. If we need to make
:17:52. > :17:54.it clear that we are a self-governing Parliamentary
:17:55. > :17:59.democracy and we need to pass legislation to achieve that we
:18:00. > :18:02.should do it. That is our birthright, our heritage, our
:18:03. > :18:07.tradition, and something we have a last chance to recover on Thursday.
:18:08. > :18:09.Lord Howard, thank you very much. Thank you.
:18:10. > :18:13.One striking development in the last few days - big
:18:14. > :18:15.movements in the markets, apparently predicting that the odds
:18:16. > :18:19.The pound has soared, the FTSE had its best
:18:20. > :18:21.day for four months, and the bookies' odds have shifted.
:18:22. > :18:25.The betting market had put the chance of a Brexit win above 40%
:18:26. > :18:28.Yesterday, Brexit was seen as having a 33%
:18:29. > :18:37.A couple of polls tonight putting Remain ahead.
:18:38. > :18:40.Something has changed, it could be a late swing
:18:41. > :18:44.to the status quo, that is something we often see.
:18:45. > :18:47.But, obviously, it could also be a Jo Cox effect.
:18:48. > :18:49.For a fifth day today, the campaign has been
:18:50. > :18:51.affected by her death, with Parliament recalled,
:18:52. > :18:53.to hear moving tributes from her colleagues.
:18:54. > :19:00.Just before we came on air, I spoke to Professor John Curtice.
:19:01. > :19:04.He is a pollster and I began by asking him the current state of play
:19:05. > :19:05.in the referendum. It is perhaps worth reminding
:19:06. > :19:08.ourselves where we seemed to be towards the end of last week before
:19:09. > :19:11.the tragic murder of Jo Cox. We had just seen a whole sequence
:19:12. > :19:15.of opinion polls that were the worst figures for Remain and the best
:19:16. > :19:17.figures for Leave at any stage And for the first time perhaps
:19:18. > :19:21.a real prospect that Remain were, on the consensus
:19:22. > :19:23.of the opinion polls, behind. Then at the weekend we saw the polls
:19:24. > :19:27.move back again to some degree, though even then the polls
:19:28. > :19:29.being done over the Internet said it was a 50-50 call,
:19:30. > :19:32.which is what they've been saying And we had one telephone
:19:33. > :19:35.poll putting the Remain Tonight we have two more polls,
:19:36. > :19:39.one Internet poll from YouGov, Another one from ORB,
:19:40. > :19:45.a phone poll, depending a bit on how you interpret it,
:19:46. > :19:48.but again it looks like So we are frankly looking
:19:49. > :19:54.at a referendum which is still extraordinarily tight but maybe not
:19:55. > :19:58.quite so bad for Remain as it looked So, the markets, the prediction
:19:59. > :20:04.markets, the bookies, basically, thinking it is a 25%
:20:05. > :20:06.chance of Brexit now, which has diminished
:20:07. > :20:07.very, very rapidly. I think the truth is that they are
:20:08. > :20:18.now seriously underestimating Given that most of the recent
:20:19. > :20:25.opinion polls we have been having are saying it is somewhere
:20:26. > :20:28.between maybe 49% for Remain and about 52% for Remain,
:20:29. > :20:30.I would suggest something like 40-45% would be a more serious
:20:31. > :20:32.and sensible probability for the prospect of
:20:33. > :20:40.Leave at this juncture. Clearly something has changed
:20:41. > :20:42.from the worst polls that Because, people were saying that
:20:43. > :20:55.maybe there will be a late I think the truth is it's impossible
:20:56. > :21:00.to tell whether there There is nothing directly in
:21:01. > :21:03.the opinion polls to support that. Maybe there has been a little bit
:21:04. > :21:06.of movement back towards Remain, but perhaps we shouldn't also simply
:21:07. > :21:16.discount the most boring hypothesis which is that maybe last week
:21:17. > :21:19.the polls happened all to slightly exaggerate Leave's position and that
:21:20. > :21:21.maybe not a great deal has ever happened at all,
:21:22. > :21:24.although I think in truth probably Remain's position still looks
:21:25. > :21:26.somewhat weaker than it did certainly before we got
:21:27. > :21:28.into the pre-election Since then, if you look
:21:29. > :21:31.across the piece, the polls have just not looked quite so good
:21:32. > :21:34.for Remain as they did beforehand. John Curtice, thank
:21:35. > :21:36.you very much indeed. Our political editor
:21:37. > :21:41.Nick Watt joins me now. You were in the Commons today for
:21:42. > :21:46.what was a very special day, remembering Jo Cox. Yes, they were
:21:47. > :21:50.very powerful scenes in the House of Commons as Jo Cox's closest
:21:51. > :21:54.Parliamentary colleagues paid a warm tribute to her, but really the most
:21:55. > :22:00.poignant moment was when there were often moments of complete silence in
:22:01. > :22:03.the chamber of the House of Commons and all you could hear were the
:22:04. > :22:07.voices of her three and five-year-old making the noises that
:22:08. > :22:11.any three or five-year-old makes when their father, in this case can
:22:12. > :22:14.or their grandparent, is reading a book to them. The referendum
:22:15. > :22:20.obviously wasn't directly addressed in these tributes, but it was never
:22:21. > :22:24.far away. There was real anger today amongst Tory Vote Leave supporters
:22:25. > :22:28.in the way in which they believe the Prime Minister is seeking to use the
:22:29. > :22:31.death of Jo Cox to sort of bolster the Remain side, they cited the
:22:32. > :22:36.Sunday Telegraph article in which the Prime Minister praised her work
:22:37. > :22:40.for the Remain campaign and one former Tory Cabinet minister who I
:22:41. > :22:43.spoke to who was still wearing his white rose of Yorkshire as a mark of
:22:44. > :22:47.respect to Jo Cox and he said the Prime Minister had walked across a
:22:48. > :22:53.line and behaved in a disgusting way. The Vote Leave leadership had
:22:54. > :22:56.to send out a message this afternoon, they have a WhatsApp
:22:57. > :22:59.group to communicate with their supporters, and they said to their
:23:00. > :23:03.side, do not say anything, hold your horses, this is the time for silence
:23:04. > :23:07.on this particular issue. Does the behind-the-scenes annoyance with the
:23:08. > :23:10.Prime Minister, does it indicate anything about their worries and
:23:11. > :23:15.anxieties about how this is going in the last week? I think it shows that
:23:16. > :23:19.the Vote Leave side is nervous because they appeared to be moving
:23:20. > :23:23.some way ahead in the polls and the polls are more difficult to read
:23:24. > :23:26.now. It's interesting, I was speaking to Labour Brexit minister
:23:27. > :23:31.last week who said it is all over are in the shouting, we have won. I
:23:32. > :23:35.spoke to the same minister today and he said I still think we are going
:23:36. > :23:39.to win but I think there were a few more caveats. It's important to say
:23:40. > :23:42.that the Remain side are also very nervous and thought they had won on
:23:43. > :23:46.the economy and they know that Vote Leave have had a great run on
:23:47. > :23:48.immigration. Nick, thank you very much indeed.
:23:49. > :23:51.There is so much to talk about in the referendum,
:23:52. > :23:54.Much of the campaign has been devoted to a relatively
:23:55. > :23:57.short playlist of issues, but you might remember that last
:23:58. > :24:00.week, we had been taking Newsnight travelling - a short road trip
:24:01. > :24:02.through the UK to get some fresh perspectives on the EU debate.
:24:03. > :24:05.That was put on hold, but could we at least retrieve one
:24:06. > :24:15.For obvious reasons the journey of the Newsnight truck
:24:16. > :24:22.and our referendum road trip was suspended along
:24:23. > :24:26.We had started in Glasgow and Stornoway last Monday,
:24:27. > :24:28.made stops in Middlesbrough and Leicester, before pausing.
:24:29. > :24:31.The schedule had the truck ending its journey in the southern resort
:24:32. > :24:39.And we decided to keep to that date with just a brief visit to the town
:24:40. > :24:44.to record some material on its perspective
:24:45. > :24:47.on the referendum, a debate about the future of Britain,
:24:48. > :24:53.We didn't have time to stop at the famous Butlins,
:24:54. > :24:56.one of three in the country but we did get to see
:24:57. > :25:00.The beaches are proud to regularly fly the European blue flag
:25:01. > :25:09.The south coast is physically closer to the Continent than most
:25:10. > :25:13.of the country and Bognor is not alone among towns here in fostering
:25:14. > :25:16.But politically the local constituency's Conservative
:25:17. > :25:19.and is one where Ukip performed well at the last election with 22%
:25:20. > :25:30.You don't need me to tell you that the demographics of seaside towns
:25:31. > :25:36.are often skewed to the elderly. About the Regis of the world make a
:25:37. > :25:40.great place to retire but the sea also offers attractions to youthful
:25:41. > :25:44.visitors as well. Here it turns out there are more of the older than the
:25:45. > :25:48.young but still there is nowhere better to think about what kind of
:25:49. > :25:52.generational divide exists in attitudes to the EU. Are Wallasey
:25:53. > :25:59.editor Chris Cook came down here to find out for stop -- policy editor.
:26:00. > :26:02.When the votes are tallied on Thursday night, a lot of seaside
:26:03. > :26:04.towns will end up as strong supporters of Leave.
:26:05. > :26:07.And Bognor Regis, on the Sussex coast, is likely to be one of them.
:26:08. > :26:10.Now, Bognor is perhaps best known as a holiday resort,
:26:11. > :26:13.despite its sometimes unreliable weather, but it has also got unusual
:26:14. > :26:15.demographics that make it prime territory for Leave.
:26:16. > :26:18.For one thing, we know that people with fewer qualifications,
:26:19. > :26:21.be they academic or technical, are more likely to vote for Leave,
:26:22. > :26:24.and here in Bognor, only 28% of people have any sort
:26:25. > :26:26.of significant postsecondary qualification, as opposed to 37%
:26:27. > :26:32.We also know that people who earn less are more
:26:33. > :26:36.likely to vote for Leave, and here in Bognor the average wage
:26:37. > :26:44.is around ?475 a week, that's ?50 a week less
:26:45. > :26:46.than the national average, it's a full ?100 a week
:26:47. > :26:49.less than the average for the Southeast of England.
:26:50. > :26:52.Finally, and this is the big one for Bognor, we also know that older
:26:53. > :26:55.people are more likely to vote for Leave, and here in Bognor around
:26:56. > :27:04.A recent poll by Populous implies that if the population
:27:05. > :27:06.was split 50-50 on Brexit, around 69% of under 24s
:27:07. > :27:14.Conversely, 62% of over 65s would vote for Leave,
:27:15. > :27:19.You can see that split when you talk to members of the
:27:20. > :27:26.How do you intend to vote for the referendum?
:27:27. > :27:32.I've not spoken to one who wants to stay in.
:27:33. > :27:34.With all the immigration, all the benefits, the hospitals
:27:35. > :27:36.straining at the seams, all the cancelled operations,
:27:37. > :27:44.as I said about the schools and everything.
:27:45. > :27:47.So you don't trust Mark Carney, or the Chancellor,
:27:48. > :27:49.or the Prime Minister, or Martin Lewis, or any of these
:27:50. > :27:51.people, when they say we will be poorer
:27:52. > :28:02.They don't know any more than we do, do they, really?
:28:03. > :28:06.The Governor of the Bank of England is a specialist economist,
:28:07. > :28:08.central banker, brought in from Canada to help
:28:09. > :28:11.run our economy, and he thinks it's a bad idea.
:28:12. > :28:17.Yes, but does he know what it's like to go around Sainsbury's
:28:18. > :28:20.shopping, or into where all people that are on benefits are spending
:28:21. > :28:25.One of the things nationally is we think younger people
:28:26. > :28:27.are going to be more likely to vote Remain.
:28:28. > :28:30.It's their future, you see. They don't know the history.
:28:31. > :28:38.We have known a different way, you see, so that is what we
:28:39. > :28:42.are falling back on, because we knew it as it was.
:28:43. > :28:46.We ask this not quite retired Remainer, who chairs a local
:28:47. > :28:51.business, why he thinks older people tend to be pro-Leave.
:28:52. > :28:55.I see it with my mother's generation that they really feel somehow
:28:56. > :28:59.threatened by all the immigrants around.
:29:00. > :29:02.They think that's changed the character of the place,
:29:03. > :29:07.but the health service and the care homes they are going to end up
:29:08. > :29:12.in just couldn't function without some immigration.
:29:13. > :29:16.We caught up with some sporty young people at a local beach who had
:29:17. > :29:19.rather different politics to their older neighbours.
:29:20. > :29:22.Of your friends who you know are voting, what do
:29:23. > :29:28.All of them are in, all of them are in, I can't see any idea why
:29:29. > :29:32.Why is it you think that older people generally tend to disagree
:29:33. > :29:38.More of that generation are geared towards having Britain as more
:29:39. > :29:40.independent before the EU was really fully formed, and with our
:29:41. > :29:42.generation we are much more about travelling,
:29:43. > :29:46.much more about being free, much more about creating a wider
:29:47. > :29:54.The reason why I am voting for In is that the deal we have
:29:55. > :29:57.at the moment with Europe is great, you know, free movement of labour,
:29:58. > :29:58.especially for watersports enthusiasts like us,
:29:59. > :30:04.It means we can go and work in any country in Europe
:30:05. > :30:06.without having to get a visa, and for us especially,
:30:07. > :30:10.But the reason to leave the EU is to control immigration.
:30:11. > :30:12.That seems to be a real emotional standpoint to take,
:30:13. > :30:15.and I think, honestly, are we really going to curtail
:30:16. > :30:17.immigration that much, and if we are, is that going
:30:18. > :30:20.Is immigration a problem for people your age?
:30:21. > :30:25.I think it's ridiculous that it is even considered a problem.
:30:26. > :30:28.The local Ukip chair explains why he thinks young people
:30:29. > :30:31.The young people have been very badly served by the politicians.
:30:32. > :30:36.I don't think the politicians have been open and honest
:30:37. > :30:45.They have fought a fear campaign, which has been devoid of the facts.
:30:46. > :30:48.On Thursday, one generation will prevail.
:30:49. > :31:00.Family arguments might be more ferocious this year than ever.
:31:01. > :31:04.Well, I am joined by three local people, all at the more elderly
:31:05. > :31:06.end of the spectrum, all over the age of 60.
:31:07. > :31:09.Thank you all very much for joining us on this
:31:10. > :31:14.First of all, why do you think there is this age
:31:15. > :31:19.gap between the younger and the older in attitudes?
:31:20. > :31:25.I think that people of my age can remember before we joined
:31:26. > :31:36.the European Economic Community and we were able to manage.
:31:37. > :31:40.The European Economic Community was a good thing.
:31:41. > :31:48.And you are veering to Out, aren't you?
:31:49. > :31:51.Yes, I haven't made up my mind completely but I'd like to be
:31:52. > :31:55.I've yet to be convinced there is necessarily a strict divide
:31:56. > :32:03.But I tend to agree with what Jane says, that I think the young people
:32:04. > :32:07.haven't necessarily experienced what has gone before and haven't
:32:08. > :32:09.seen that Britain can perfectly easily survive and the world isn't
:32:10. > :32:14.going to fall in if we come out of the European Union.
:32:15. > :32:16.You've got your own sign-writing business.
:32:17. > :32:22.I think there has been a lot of pontificating about
:32:23. > :32:29.To the detriment of the strengths that we have been living
:32:30. > :32:34.with for a long time and just take for granted now.
:32:35. > :32:36.I think taking it for granted is a massive mistake
:32:37. > :32:39.which we could fall into if there is this sway to leave
:32:40. > :32:50.Would it bother you, let's put it crudely,
:32:51. > :33:06.if the old pulled us out of the EU and the young had wanted to stay in?
:33:07. > :33:09.People say is it a problem if England votes us out
:33:10. > :33:14.But is it a problem if you guys take us out and the young
:33:15. > :33:16.Does that bother you, Jane?
:33:17. > :33:19.I think it's a very important point, because they are the ones that
:33:20. > :33:21.have to make it work, whatever we decide.
:33:22. > :33:24.But I'm thinking beyond the next five or ten years, which I don't
:33:25. > :33:28.I'm thinking for my grandchildren who are now aged eight to 13.
:33:29. > :33:31.In a way I think it might be their only chance
:33:32. > :33:35.Yeah, I agree with that, this will be the only chance
:33:36. > :33:38.they will get because I don't think there will be another chance.
:33:39. > :33:40.If we look at the issues in this campaign, mostly immigration
:33:41. > :33:43.and the economy are being talked about a great deal.
:33:44. > :33:45.Do we think that the elderly put more weight on immigration
:33:46. > :33:51.My generation and slightly older than me have to think about,
:33:52. > :33:55.as we get older and we are all now expecting to live to 80 plus,
:33:56. > :34:01.Jane and Hugh, that is a paradox isn't it?
:34:02. > :34:03.Care workers are disproportionately...
:34:04. > :34:05.Yes, but I really seriously think this is a non-issue,
:34:06. > :34:07.because immigration, for example myself, I know
:34:08. > :34:09.lots of immigrants around here who are truly excellent people
:34:10. > :34:12.and they do a terrific job and they are real
:34:13. > :34:23.All that is being asked in relation to the European Union or anywhere
:34:24. > :34:26.else is that we are able to choose those people that come here.
:34:27. > :34:28.That means that we will still have the excellent
:34:29. > :34:37.Those who say that it's not an issue have their heads in the sand.
:34:38. > :34:47.Can you imagine if we come out that we retreat over the bit
:34:48. > :34:49.as a nation and maybe we don't build High Speed 2,
:34:50. > :34:51.and we don't build a third runway at Heathrow?
:34:52. > :34:54.Do you see these kinds of things as connected?
:34:55. > :34:56.I'm just interested in your bigger vision of Britain.
:34:57. > :35:01.The future of Britain, as can happen outside the EU,
:35:02. > :35:09.There is a tremendous future for Britain, as there is for a lot
:35:10. > :35:13.I don't really see that that makes a lot of difference.
:35:14. > :35:15.But I am very positive about the many excellent things
:35:16. > :35:19.Britain can do if it is able to trade freely with all the other
:35:20. > :35:21.countries of the world, instead of just being restricted
:35:22. > :35:29.Whatever the outcome may be, and I'm passionate about the Remain
:35:30. > :35:32.in because of all the benefits it will bring the future generations
:35:33. > :35:41.of our children and their children as it goes forward.
:35:42. > :35:44.Because, the strength that it will give all of us,
:35:45. > :35:46.it beggars belief that we can see ourselves as little Englanders
:35:47. > :35:53.being run by politicians that have no vision, no imagination.
:35:54. > :36:01.This little Englander thing kind of irritates me in a sense
:36:02. > :36:04.because we are not little Englanders, we are Great Britain
:36:05. > :36:06.and Great Britain can survive perfectly well, as David Cameron has
:36:07. > :36:13.Do you think Britain was a better country in the days before
:36:14. > :36:20.No, so you are not in any way attached
:36:21. > :36:26.Is there an emotional bond, do you think, that young people
:36:27. > :36:30.Do you think younger people feel more European in identity,
:36:31. > :36:33.a bit more, clearly not completely, but a bit more of a European
:36:34. > :36:36.identity and the ability to travel there, friends there,
:36:37. > :36:43.It's all they've done, it's all they know.
:36:44. > :36:48.So, yes, I think they do have an attachment.
:36:49. > :36:54.They are European and their understanding of what Europe is all
:36:55. > :36:56.about is what they've lived through, what they've been educated in,
:36:57. > :37:00.what they've seen, what they've experienced full stop.
:37:01. > :37:03.what they've seen, what they've experienced, full stop.
:37:04. > :37:07.Hugh, Jane, Steve, thank you very much indeed.
:37:08. > :37:24.You may not have made up your mind yet.
:37:25. > :37:27.In the recent polls, the undecideds have been
:37:28. > :37:30.Anyway, through the campaign we've been helping you make your mind up,
:37:31. > :37:33.by letting some engaging people who are not active campaigners,
:37:34. > :37:34.set out their argument for or against.
:37:35. > :37:37.We are in the last legs, and have to make sure we get
:37:38. > :37:40.to Thursday having balanced up the quota on each side.
:37:41. > :37:43.Tonight, our My Decision slot goes to the founder of lastminute.com
:37:44. > :37:59.and philanthropist, Martha Lane Fox.
:38:00. > :38:00.I'm wildly pro-Europe, both for reasons that
:38:01. > :38:08.are from my heart and for reasons that are from my head.
:38:09. > :38:11.If I had to describe the two, I guess I'd say that the head
:38:12. > :38:15.reasons are based around my experiences as an entrepreneur
:38:16. > :38:17.and a businessperson, and now a social entrepreneur,
:38:18. > :38:19.and the experience I've had in the technology sector.
:38:20. > :38:22.No surprises, you spend your entire time in the technology
:38:23. > :38:24.sector thinking about how to connect the world more,
:38:25. > :38:27.how to scale things, how to grow, how to use something that is small
:38:28. > :38:31.and local, and help reach a global market.
:38:32. > :38:34.The idea that you would retract into the smaller place is just
:38:35. > :38:38.something that is so countercultural in my working life.
:38:39. > :38:41.But my heart part is more important, I believe, and more dominant actuary
:38:42. > :38:46.in my thinking and my decision-making.
:38:47. > :38:49.I so strongly believe that we should always be part of the discussion,
:38:50. > :38:55.and inclusion is a better position to take than exclusion.
:38:56. > :38:58.Where do you sit on voting in or out?
:38:59. > :39:03.I think like any enormous system in any country,
:39:04. > :39:06.in any political structure, things can improve and change.
:39:07. > :39:08.If I look at it from my own perspective, the technology world,
:39:09. > :39:11.it's still a pretty bureaucratic organisation, I'm not sure
:39:12. > :39:19.When I visited Brussels, the Commission is full of paper.
:39:20. > :39:22.There is lots of change and excitement you could reorganise
:39:23. > :39:25.around the internet, but I'm not sure that is particular
:39:26. > :39:28.to Brussels, it is particular to most political systems.
:39:29. > :39:32.The fear that I would have is that we have lost an ability
:39:33. > :39:36.to impact the most important debates of our times, and we need to have
:39:37. > :39:39.as big a voice as possible to solve the big challenges,
:39:40. > :39:41.whether that is climate change, whether that is the mass
:39:42. > :39:43.migration of peoples, whether that is gender
:39:44. > :39:52.equality, or whether that is technological shifts.
:39:53. > :39:55.I fear for us as a country we are looking backwards not
:39:56. > :39:57.forwards and that we would become much diminished.
:39:58. > :40:02.Emily will be at Wembley tomorrow for the really
:40:03. > :40:08.But we leave you with a celebration of the Welsh football
:40:09. > :40:11.team's third goal against Russia, which left them and not
:40:12. > :40:16.Not bad, as the comedian David Schneider noted, for a country
:40:17. > :41:13.Good evening, despite starting on a very wet note, Midsummer's day
:41:14. > :41:14.finished