:00:09. > :00:14.I will go to Parliament and propose that the British people decide our
:00:15. > :00:15.future in Europe through a referendum on Thursday the 23rd of
:00:16. > :00:19.June. The choice is in your hands. And it's been a fraught fight
:00:20. > :00:26.to the bitter last day. We'll look back at the campaign
:00:27. > :00:30.and at what has cut through. Britain's not just deciding
:00:31. > :00:33.on Europe, it's deciding Michael Cockerell has been looking
:00:34. > :00:40.back at their history. We'll discuss the divisions that
:00:41. > :00:51.have been exposed in the run-up And ask how our political parties
:00:52. > :00:57.and the country will cope with the aftermath.
:00:58. > :01:02.On Friday the healing will have to begin.
:01:03. > :01:05.But ahead of that we have the small matter of the referendum itself.
:01:06. > :01:07.With it, such a cliffhanger there was a frenzy of last-minute
:01:08. > :01:10.campaigning, even though market day is upon us.
:01:11. > :01:13.And the professionals always remind us, you can't fatten
:01:14. > :01:30.A busy last day? Yes, it did have the feeling that this was bigger
:01:31. > :01:34.than the annual -- average General Election, Harriet Harman, David
:01:35. > :01:38.Cameron and Gordon Brown on the same platform and Boris Johnson crossing
:01:39. > :01:43.the country by helicopter and aeroplane and tonight, the final
:01:44. > :01:49.polls, the YouGov poll shows that remain are just ahead. Better news
:01:50. > :01:56.for them with Comres, it shows they are ahead, 54-40 six. These
:01:57. > :02:03.campaigns, the same polls and what is interesting is the feeling is the
:02:04. > :02:07.same in both camps, they can see the pathway to victory but they are
:02:08. > :02:11.nervous, in the Remain camp the reason they have confidence is they
:02:12. > :02:17.are watching the risk factor, voters saying it could be risky to leave
:02:18. > :02:21.and that drives the vote but what is making Remain nervous is what is
:02:22. > :02:25.making Vote Leave happy, if you're that there is a disconnect the
:02:26. > :02:27.Indian elite of the Labour Party in favour of remaining and the rest of
:02:28. > :02:31.the Labour party grassroots throughout the rest of the country
:02:32. > :02:36.but at least the Remain campaign have the Labour party machinery.
:02:37. > :02:41.Vote Leave has no party machinery behind it and tomorrow is all about
:02:42. > :02:42.getting that vote out. We will hear from you in a moment.
:02:43. > :02:47.One in which the techniques of the "hard sell" have been pushed
:02:48. > :02:50.And it's a campaign that's demonstrated
:02:51. > :02:53.On each side, protagonists have proffered their view with more
:02:54. > :02:57.certainty and strength than perhaps their case deserved.
:02:58. > :03:00.In doing so they have hardened their argument but have
:03:01. > :03:05.It seemed like sales talk rather than explanation.
:03:06. > :03:08.I wonder whether the ambivalent among us might have been more
:03:09. > :03:10.persuaded by someone more, well, ambivalent?
:03:11. > :03:14.David Grossman has been been looking back at the campaign and at what has
:03:15. > :03:39.But the role of the dice, risking the future. -- with the role of the
:03:40. > :03:42.dice. All aboard for Britain remaining within the EU.
:03:43. > :03:48.Looking back, we can definitely say it has brought the country together.
:03:49. > :04:03.My daughter will not get into the school she needed. I am a Cornish
:04:04. > :04:10.fishermen and you are not. You might not be very bright but that says...
:04:11. > :04:13.Read that! You are being intimidated.
:04:14. > :04:16.Any idea that this might be a uniting referendum,
:04:17. > :04:19.we have sort of split into two countries, Remainia and Leavia.
:04:20. > :04:22.There are a lot of social differences between us
:04:23. > :04:26.and the referendum has got so close and is going right down to the wire,
:04:27. > :04:28.that those differences have become even more
:04:29. > :04:41.At times, it has been enough to drive you to drink.
:04:42. > :04:47.A large quantity of real ale is one of the best ways to get through this
:04:48. > :04:52.referendum campaign and Iraq amend that to everybody! The sweet taste
:04:53. > :04:55.of remaining within the EU. What better, then, than bitter
:04:56. > :04:57.to toast the end of this Although political types have been
:04:58. > :05:01.utterly intoxicated by this referendum, how much of what has
:05:02. > :05:14.been going on has actually cut Thank you, all of you, for
:05:15. > :05:16.everything you are doing to support Vote Leave.
:05:17. > :05:19.It is a reality of politics that generally, the folk who get
:05:20. > :05:21.fired up and immerse themselves in the campaign,
:05:22. > :05:23.how can we put this politely, are not always representative
:05:24. > :05:30.The vast majority probably don't pay as much attention as people
:05:31. > :05:38.Instead, the average person, the 50% of people less
:05:39. > :05:42.engaged than on the street, isn't as engaged in the detail
:05:43. > :05:47.of specific issues or specific policies.
:05:48. > :05:52.Instead, they are interested in what we call the broad
:05:53. > :05:54.narratives, the stories of what we tell ourselves and each
:05:55. > :06:01.Is, for instance, Britain doing well being in the EU or not?
:06:02. > :06:06.This has meant the campaigns have been hammering away at the same
:06:07. > :06:24.I thought the Remain side was very clear.
:06:25. > :06:28.Let's keep talking about the economy and let's scare the living pellets
:06:29. > :06:30.out of voters who are undecided by making them think we're
:06:31. > :06:33.going to have economic collapse, complete house, World Tour III,
:06:34. > :06:35.goodness knows what else, plague and pestilence come Friday,
:06:36. > :06:38.And I think it worked in the early stages.
:06:39. > :06:42.Meanwhile, Vote Leave was serving up something just as bite
:06:43. > :06:47.Is it not time to take back control? We want to take back control.
:06:48. > :06:50.I don't think they really knew what they were doing in the early
:06:51. > :06:51.stages, the early weeks were completely dominated.
:06:52. > :07:01.It was all about the Remain campaign and reaction from the Leave campaign
:07:02. > :07:08.and only in the last week or so, Leave have been the front foot in
:07:09. > :07:16.trying to lead the debate. KV Racing might be the perfect referendum
:07:17. > :07:20.metaphor. -- pig racing. But as a way of measuring public opinion, it
:07:21. > :07:28.is well be less useful. For all of the match discussed difficulties, we
:07:29. > :07:31.prefer to use posters. The polling organisation YouGov has asked voters
:07:32. > :07:37.which events from the campaign they remember. Top of the list was Vote
:07:38. > :07:43.Leave pulls my campaign that we said ?350 million per week to Brussels
:07:44. > :07:47.with 42% remembering. Next was the news that net migration to the UK
:07:48. > :07:54.had hit 333,000, with 37% recalling that. And thirdly, Vote Leave's
:07:55. > :08:00.focus on Turkey and other candidate countries joining the EU on 36%. The
:08:01. > :08:06.top three items were from the Brexit side. The top three items were leave
:08:07. > :08:11.items, they were also more likely to be followed by people who support
:08:12. > :08:15.Leave and because all of the items, there was more interest in people
:08:16. > :08:19.following them if they were likely to Vote Leave and this corresponds
:08:20. > :08:23.to the data that shows that people who say they will Vote Leave are
:08:24. > :08:27.more likely to vote and more likely to be interested and pay attention.
:08:28. > :08:32.That is interesting because there are two dimensions to this, the
:08:33. > :08:36.issue of whether people will Vote Leave or Remain and the issue if
:08:37. > :08:43.they choose to vote or not. Added is that combination of things that will
:08:44. > :08:46.decide the result. The highest Remain argument was a Treasury
:08:47. > :08:51.report that Brexit would spark a year-long recession, that was 35%.
:08:52. > :08:55.Barack Obama saying the UK would be at the back of the queue for a new
:08:56. > :08:59.trade deal with the US in the event of Brexit was weak called by 31% and
:09:00. > :09:05.Jeremy Corbyn's warning about Brexit and the NHS was only remembered by
:09:06. > :09:11.24%. That is not much more than one of the fake items, 21% said they
:09:12. > :09:14.remembered Boris Johnson and David Cameron each calling there other and
:09:15. > :09:20.liar during a live television debate. Despite the fact that that
:09:21. > :09:27.never happened. Although everyone says they want calm, rational,
:09:28. > :09:32.polite debate, secretly, campaigns are trying to generate angry
:09:33. > :09:36.conflict. Using indisputable sadistic, for example, are scary
:09:37. > :09:41.sound bite, generates their time on your preferred subject. The
:09:42. > :09:47.campaigns have been trying to create disputes around their central points
:09:48. > :09:53.so that people will argue over it. Salience is everything, can you move
:09:54. > :10:01.your issue up the agenda? Remain has decided -- succeeded on that, watch
:10:02. > :10:07.the opinion polls, when the salience is up, so is the opinion poll
:10:08. > :10:10.rating. From tomorrow, the leaflets should subside and we would have to
:10:11. > :10:13.pretend to be a night when there is not that the door but there is no
:10:14. > :10:17.hiding from the fact that this referendum has divided the UK.
:10:18. > :10:18.Whatever the result, healing the disputes this campaign has unleashed
:10:19. > :10:31.will not be easy. David Grossman. We'll both sides be satisfied? Who
:10:32. > :10:36.is a theme that unites both campaigns, it proves the old Adam
:10:37. > :10:40.Ashe that the best late military plans rarely survive first contact
:10:41. > :10:43.with the enemy and in the case of the Remain campaign David Cameron
:10:44. > :10:48.and George Osborne were planning to rip free their success in the
:10:49. > :10:52.Scottish referendum with Project Fear. They have focused on that but
:10:53. > :10:59.there is a change away from metrics, if we leave the EU it will cost
:11:00. > :11:03.thousands of pounds, nobody believed that, they moved to a narrative,
:11:04. > :11:07.about the dangers of the here and now, we have not yet left but the
:11:08. > :11:17.markets are already worried and in the case of the Leave campaign, what
:11:18. > :11:24.they were focusing on was... They came very late to immigration? Yes,
:11:25. > :11:28.with immigration one month ago, they focused on that, they had great
:11:29. > :11:32.success and there were not planning on that, they were planning on a
:11:33. > :11:37.broader message but one person has been consistent and that is Nigel
:11:38. > :11:37.Farage and asked him how he felt today about Vote Leave taking some
:11:38. > :11:40.of his ideas. The day Vote Leave moved on to
:11:41. > :11:42.talking about an Australian-style points system I cheered so loudly
:11:43. > :11:45.I nearly lost my voice. Because that was the day
:11:46. > :11:59.that the Leave campaign Interesting. There is a campaign and
:12:00. > :12:04.the aftermath and they are already thinking about the aftermath? I have
:12:05. > :12:06.learned that in the aftermath, Downing Street are confident that
:12:07. > :12:10.the Prime Minister will win this referendum. But there are
:12:11. > :12:15.discussions under way about what will happen if he loses. He has been
:12:16. > :12:19.consulting colleagues. We know he will make the statement in the early
:12:20. > :12:23.hours of Friday morning, being very clear about his intention about how
:12:24. > :12:26.he will run the Brexit negotiations if he survives and also about his
:12:27. > :12:31.own position and there are divisions. Some people say he could
:12:32. > :12:34.survive if he appointed a Brexit minister in charge of those
:12:35. > :12:39.negotiations but other friends say no, and one said, Ken Clarke was
:12:40. > :12:44.wrong to say he would be gone in 30 seconds. He will be gone in 60
:12:45. > :12:46.seconds! You can hear almost the sound of people grappling with the
:12:47. > :12:47.issues. For what it's worth, I suspect that,
:12:48. > :12:50.despite all the confusion that has been sown, through the noise,
:12:51. > :12:53.most people have grasped the basics. Migration: we're more likely
:12:54. > :12:54.to limit European immigration The economy: the vast bulk
:12:55. > :13:00.of economic, financial and business opinion thinks it would be
:13:01. > :13:01.best to stay. Sovereignty: Brussels will have less
:13:02. > :13:05.power over us if we leave, but that we'll have less power over
:13:06. > :13:07.Brussels if we do. Frankly, the rest is
:13:08. > :13:09.just detail anyway. The argument is over which of these
:13:10. > :13:12.different issues is the one And the world divides
:13:13. > :13:15.into those who know, and those who are are having to make
:13:16. > :13:24.up their mind. None of us have ordered it, we could
:13:25. > :13:30.all be swayed in either direction. Everybody I have talked to is
:13:31. > :13:35.confused. Why can't economists do for and against without being
:13:36. > :13:39.biased? We need 10,000 more doctors because we have 100,000 more people
:13:40. > :13:45.coming in. The only way people have a future in the North is from the
:13:46. > :13:48.EU. At the end of the day, to make a difference, everybody has to vote
:13:49. > :13:50.for it and without that it doesn't make a difference.
:13:51. > :13:53.Joining me now to reflect on standout moments
:13:54. > :13:55.of the referendum campaign is Professor of History at
:13:56. > :13:57.Sun political columnist Trevor Kavanagh.
:13:58. > :13:59.Assistant editor of The Spectator Isabel Hardman.
:14:00. > :14:07.And the Guardian's senior economics commentator, Aditya Chakrabortty.
:14:08. > :14:13.Thank you for coming in. We have asked you to think about one telling
:14:14. > :14:20.moment in the campaign that might be an interesting point. Trevor? For
:14:21. > :14:24.me, the first evidence that this was game on and I suspect for David
:14:25. > :14:30.Cameron was on February the 18th, the day of the Cabinet when he
:14:31. > :14:36.unveiled his empty-handed referendum... The renegotiation.
:14:37. > :14:42.Nothing to offer all of you. And Michael Gove immediately came out
:14:43. > :14:44.that evenly with a sickly the Brexit manifesto, he rapidly moved out of
:14:45. > :14:49.the traps and that took Downing Street by surprise and I think if it
:14:50. > :14:53.had not been for that, Boris Johnson would not have joined the fray. He
:14:54. > :15:06.rode a very powerful and eloquent speech? Yes. Next? What for you was
:15:07. > :15:08.that moment? The financier Nicholas Massereene says you should always
:15:09. > :15:13.listen to what people are talking about in the local gym, this man
:15:14. > :15:19.came over to me, and said, have you seen the leaflet about David
:15:20. > :15:26.Cameron? Yes, it is doormat. That costs ?350 million. I am not so sure
:15:27. > :15:29.about that! And then he said, if we vote to leave, I do not think
:15:30. > :15:33.Cameron will accept that. He will keep Austin and will go back to
:15:34. > :15:38.Brussels and we negotiate. And I thought, is the? Where has he got
:15:39. > :15:42.that from? I look at the opinion polls and they showed that the
:15:43. > :15:46.majority of British people agreed, even if he voted no, we want to
:15:47. > :15:50.leave, but don't trust the governing class to accept that.
:15:51. > :15:57.So the big point... What you have seen played out is this lingering
:15:58. > :16:03.and quite serious distrust of the governing class, Labour or Tory,
:16:04. > :16:09.from across the country. What has been the standout moment for you? It
:16:10. > :16:14.was a week ago, Nigel Farage's poster from the anti-immigration
:16:15. > :16:17.poster. This was the moment of truth, or rather the moment of
:16:18. > :16:21.untruths because it was the most shameless attempt to misrepresent
:16:22. > :16:27.the issue of immigration, distorting completely what is at stake in this
:16:28. > :16:32.referendum. As it coincided with the murder of Jo Cox, it seems to me
:16:33. > :16:37.like a really terrifying reminder that the ghost of Enoch Powell still
:16:38. > :16:42.stalks the politics of this nation simultaneously, anti-immigration and
:16:43. > :16:45.anti-Europe and this was the rivers of blood moment. I find it
:16:46. > :16:53.terrifying and a great many people felt the same weight and it stopped
:16:54. > :16:56.what seemed like momentum in the -- of Lever in its tracks.
:16:57. > :17:06.I think the distrust factor is extremely acute and there was a poll
:17:07. > :17:10.showing how much it is reflected against, of all people, the pie
:17:11. > :17:13.Minister and the Chancellor. There are accounts and forecasts on the
:17:14. > :17:18.effect on the economy are disbelieved totally by the
:17:19. > :17:21.electorate -- the Prime Minister. What about the point that there is a
:17:22. > :17:26.politics of hate? I wonder if you accept that this has been a bit more
:17:27. > :17:33.brutal than we have been used to? Much more so and from both sides but
:17:34. > :17:37.predominantly on the Remain camp and Amber Rudd's Tare in the debate
:17:38. > :17:45.against Boris Johnson was really quite ugly -- Thai raid.
:17:46. > :17:53.What Farrag is arguing with the post is that we have a crisis with asylum
:17:54. > :17:56.seekers from Syria and the absolutely don't. All of this talk
:17:57. > :18:00.of taking control is a complete misrepresentation of the immigration
:18:01. > :18:12.issue. We will have a discussion later. Isabel is sitting quietly and
:18:13. > :18:15.patiently. Your moment? George Osborne's exit budget, not into and
:18:16. > :18:20.the impact it would have had on but the long-term impact on the
:18:21. > :18:23.Conservative Party. It was such a ludicrous thing to produce and the
:18:24. > :18:28.thing that amused me the most was that he was saying he would have to
:18:29. > :18:30.cut disability benefits when he had a month ago triggered the
:18:31. > :18:35.resignation of a Cabinet member within the EU for doing just that.
:18:36. > :18:40.There were so many Conservative MPs who said they would vote against it
:18:41. > :18:42.it went far beyond the usual malcontents who are always
:18:43. > :18:45.complaining about Cameron and Osborne. These were sensible Tory
:18:46. > :18:50.MPs who in their heart apart just want to get over the referendum. And
:18:51. > :18:55.the IFS and others all gain credibility by saying it is not
:18:56. > :19:00.necessarily... Was this part of that salient thing we heard about? You
:19:01. > :19:03.say something that is stupid in order to get the conversation back
:19:04. > :19:07.onto the thing you talk about rather than what they are talking about?
:19:08. > :19:11.And is it veered back to immigration, the Remain campaign
:19:12. > :19:19.warnings have become more and more ludicrous. We had Donald Tusk
:19:20. > :19:23.warning about the end of Western civilisation and I started to think
:19:24. > :19:24.there was a bit of panic in the Remain ranks. We will hear from you
:19:25. > :19:26.in a bit later. Each side in the campaign has
:19:27. > :19:28.pushed its most popular figures to the fore,
:19:29. > :19:31.with the result that it's often seemed as though it's less
:19:32. > :19:33.of a contest between Leave and Remain, and more
:19:34. > :19:35.of a personal battle between Boris Johnson and David
:19:36. > :19:36.Cameron. Their rivalry has history,
:19:37. > :19:38.it's fair to say. And the film-maker Michael Cockerell
:19:39. > :19:41.has been looking at the relationship between the two men,
:19:42. > :19:43.and how that has influenced this David Cameron admires
:19:44. > :19:54.Boris Johnson's charisma and he desperately wanted BoJo
:19:55. > :19:56.on his side in the But Johnson wouldn't
:19:57. > :20:03.make up his mind. In February he drove to his bolthole
:20:04. > :20:06.in Oxfordshire, having said he was genuinely conflicted
:20:07. > :20:09.on whether or not to go for Brexit and was veering all over the place
:20:10. > :20:13.like a supermarket trolley. Johnson was being offered a top
:20:14. > :20:16.Cabinet job by Cameron if he joined He decided he would use his weekly
:20:17. > :20:21.Daily Telegraph column, for which he is paid a quarter
:20:22. > :20:24.of a million a year, I've been told by someone
:20:25. > :20:31.in a position to know that you wrote two articles for the Daily Telegraph
:20:32. > :20:35.because you knew you had to have an article in
:20:36. > :20:38.the Daily Telegraph on the Monday. One was for staying in,
:20:39. > :20:42.the other was for getting out. And the person who told me this said
:20:43. > :20:45.the one for staying I don't know what your conceivable
:20:46. > :20:55.sources for that information may be, but I can tell you, seriously,
:20:56. > :20:59.I decided that it was much This person said that your arguments
:21:00. > :21:07.for staying in were stronger And I will tell you what the second
:21:08. > :21:18.article said. What it said was that, actually,
:21:19. > :21:23.irrespective of my objections to the way the EU was going,
:21:24. > :21:26.in order to support my party and the Prime Minister,
:21:27. > :21:29.it would be better to stay in. And I thought, in the end,
:21:30. > :21:34.that wasn't a good enough reason. Now let me say about Boris,
:21:35. > :21:38.I have huge respect for Boris as a politician, he is a great
:21:39. > :21:41.friend of mine, he is I think he has got a lot to give
:21:42. > :21:46.to the Conservative Party, I think he's got a lot
:21:47. > :21:48.to give to this country. But on this issue I think he's got
:21:49. > :21:52.it wrong and I think he's reached So we're going to have,
:21:53. > :21:55.I hope, a very reasonable, It is the latest contest
:21:56. > :22:00.in the relationship between the two men who had been friends and rivals
:22:01. > :22:05.for nearly 40 years. They had first met at Eton
:22:06. > :22:08.where Johnson was a scholarship boy who was two years older
:22:09. > :22:11.than the stockbroker's son known I'm fairly certain someone said
:22:12. > :22:20.to me once, that's Cameron Mi, Johnson's relationship
:22:21. > :22:31.with Cameron Minor would be an up and down affair
:22:32. > :22:33.throughout their lives. At Eton it was Johnson
:22:34. > :22:36.who became the school star. He was the top player in the team
:22:37. > :22:40.for the Wall Game. He was also a member of the elite
:22:41. > :22:44.group which could wear its own fancy waistcoats and he was made
:22:45. > :22:46.captain of the school. The fact that Cameron did not
:22:47. > :22:49.achieve either honour is something that he is often privately
:22:50. > :22:54.reminded of by Johnson. When the two went on to Oxford,
:22:55. > :22:56.they were elected members And they appeared together
:22:57. > :23:02.in the same photograph which they both wish could be
:23:03. > :23:07.airbrushed out of history. Johnson, who believes
:23:08. > :23:11.he is cleverer than Cameron, left Oxford with a second
:23:12. > :23:13.in classics and was disappointed to learn that David Cameron got
:23:14. > :23:16.a first in politics, Cameron's ambition, like Johnson's,
:23:17. > :23:24.was to become Prime Minister. He's very clever, he's totally
:23:25. > :23:27.devoted to politics. Indeed, when he was very young,
:23:28. > :23:30.he was nicknamed the Prime Minister because he always took
:23:31. > :23:31.politics very seriously, The two men were elected Tory MPs
:23:32. > :23:39.for safe seats in The Cotswolds in 2001 and were fast rising up
:23:40. > :23:43.the greasy pole. Until Boris was sacked
:23:44. > :23:46.from the shadow front bench for lying about a love
:23:47. > :23:48.affair to the then party At the time, David Cameron MP was
:23:49. > :23:55.one of the leader's chief advisers. Did you think it was a good idea
:23:56. > :23:58.for Michael Howard I think, I mean, that's obviously
:23:59. > :24:07.one for him rather than for me. But I think there's a very difficult
:24:08. > :24:10.issue when you say one thing publicly and then you have to say
:24:11. > :24:13.something else publicly, even though Boris is a very close friend
:24:14. > :24:19.of mine, a colleague and, you know, it was obviously a very tough
:24:20. > :24:23.time for him as well. After Cameron was elected Tory
:24:24. > :24:27.leader, he persuaded a reluctant Johnson suspected it was a ploy
:24:28. > :24:31.by Cameron to remove This is an excellent opportunity
:24:32. > :24:39.for London to have someone who I think you can unite Londoners,
:24:40. > :24:42.can inspire Londoners and can give leadership to what is one
:24:43. > :24:45.of the greatest cities in the world. It is greatest city in the world,
:24:46. > :24:51.London is the greatest Sorry, I don't want to interrupt
:24:52. > :24:54.you. It's a fantastic chance to change
:24:55. > :24:59.the government of London and to institute a new type
:25:00. > :25:01.and style of administration # He flies through the air
:25:02. > :25:08.with the greatest of ease # A daring young man
:25:09. > :25:14.on his flying trapeze #. The high point of Johnson's time
:25:15. > :25:17.as mayor was a zip wire trip If any other politician anywhere
:25:18. > :25:32.in the world got stuck on a zip wire For Boris it would be
:25:33. > :25:35.an absolute triumph! The current In-Out referendum
:25:36. > :25:46.campaign is a no holds barred battle which could see the Prime Minister
:25:47. > :25:49.losing his crown jewels Johnson had kept everyone guessing
:25:50. > :25:56.for months about which side I thought I'd better come
:25:57. > :26:05.out and say something because I could see you were all
:26:06. > :26:08.in a great mass here. The last thing I wanted was to go
:26:09. > :26:12.against David Cameron But after a great deal of heartache,
:26:13. > :26:18.I don't think there's I will be advocating Vote Leave,
:26:19. > :26:23.or whatever the team is called. That is basically it,
:26:24. > :26:29.because I want a better deal Is this a calculated,
:26:30. > :26:36.cynical play for the leadership On the contrary, I think that really
:26:37. > :26:44.and truly it would be the best thing possible for the people
:26:45. > :26:47.who are listening to this debate, wondering genuinely
:26:48. > :26:49.in their mind which way to go. Johnson had only given Cameron five
:26:50. > :26:56.minutes' warning for this I am human so obviously
:26:57. > :27:05.I was disappointed, I would be inhuman not to be sad
:27:06. > :27:08.and disappointed that Boris has Privately, the word from number ten
:27:09. > :27:17.was that the PM was incandescent that Boris had decided to out
:27:18. > :27:21.himself as an Outer. There is to be a leadership election
:27:22. > :27:24.in the Conservative Party before the next election
:27:25. > :27:31.because the Prime Minister has already said that he's not
:27:32. > :27:33.going to stand down and it is said, I'm told,
:27:34. > :27:36.that Boris intends to stand in that
:27:37. > :27:40.leadership election. And it is also further held that
:27:41. > :27:43.you couldn't lead the Tory party But I believe that some of those
:27:44. > :27:49.factors may have contributed to Boris's damascian
:27:50. > :27:51.conversion to the Out cause. And he told me he wasn't an Outer,
:27:52. > :27:58.he told a lot of other So I regret very much
:27:59. > :28:01.that he did it. In the Commons, the Prime Minister
:28:02. > :28:04.couldn't resist a subtle dig Mr Speaker, I am not
:28:05. > :28:13.standing for re-election. I have no other agenda,
:28:14. > :28:15.I have no other agenda I don't want this to become a sort
:28:16. > :28:21.of Tory psychodrama And I don't want too many blue
:28:22. > :28:26.on blue conflicts. I want to prove the breadth
:28:27. > :28:31.of the campaign. Cameron launched the Remain campaign
:28:32. > :28:33.in the impressive establishment Isolationism has never
:28:34. > :28:38.served this country well. Whenever we turn our back on Europe,
:28:39. > :28:40.sooner or later The rows of white headstones
:28:41. > :28:50.in lovingly-tended Commonwealth war cemeteries stand as silent testament
:28:51. > :28:53.to the price that this country has paid to help restore peace
:28:54. > :28:58.and order in Europe. Cameron's speech was immediately
:28:59. > :29:02.interpreted by much of the press, and by Boris Johnson,
:29:03. > :29:08.as what they dubbed Project Fear, that leaving Europe could
:29:09. > :29:10.threaten a third World War. I think all this talk
:29:11. > :29:12.of World War Three and bubonic Johnson made a point of contrasting
:29:13. > :29:20.the Leave campaign with the splendour of Cameron
:29:21. > :29:23.and the Remainers. This is a struggle of the little
:29:24. > :29:33.platoons against the big battalions. And they have the CBI and Goldman
:29:34. > :29:39.Sachs and Peter Mandelson. And then, last Friday,
:29:40. > :29:41.we got the definitive He finally revealed what Brexit
:29:42. > :29:52.looks like, and I don't mean the sight of his rear climbing up
:29:53. > :30:03.into that driver's cab. To strengthen the Remain cause,
:30:04. > :30:05.Cameron had enlisted the most powerful man in the world to put
:30:06. > :30:08.the case against Brexit. Johnson issued a pre-emptive strike,
:30:09. > :30:13.accusing Obama of being anti-British Obama delivered a magisterial rebuke
:30:14. > :30:21.and Boris was in the doghouse. I thought Boris got that wrong
:30:22. > :30:24.and I thought it was a terrific misjudgement of the proper
:30:25. > :30:26.thing to say. And I think it kind of showed Boris
:30:27. > :30:31.not in a good light. Alas, poor Boris, I knew him,
:30:32. > :30:39.a fellow of infinite jest. David Cameron seemed to be on a roll
:30:40. > :30:42.as he played up the economic cost What do you think of the way
:30:43. > :30:49.that David Cameron has This whole idea that there will be
:30:50. > :30:57.a plague of frogs and the death of the first-born if we vote
:30:58. > :31:00.to leave when, a week before the renegotiation is completed,
:31:01. > :31:02.the Prime Minister intimated that he might leave the Leave
:31:03. > :31:04.campaign, you can't have World War Three or the global
:31:05. > :31:09.Brexit recession? Johnson now tried a bit
:31:10. > :31:18.of Project Fear of his own. He told the Telegraph
:31:19. > :31:22.that the Brussels bureaucrats were trying to unify Europe
:31:23. > :31:27.as Hitler had done before them. I thought it was absolutely bloody
:31:28. > :31:30.awful, stupid thing to say, it really was, and I have no doubt
:31:31. > :31:32.Boris regrets it. # Who do you think you are kidding
:31:33. > :31:36.Mr Hitler # If you think we're
:31:37. > :31:41.on the run #. In a magazine interview,
:31:42. > :31:46.Cameron said, "Boris and I are still friends,
:31:47. > :31:52.just not such good friends." Johnson arrives for the ITV debate
:31:53. > :31:56.accompanied by two fellow Leave MPs, They will be up against
:31:57. > :32:02.the Remainers, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scots Nat leader,
:32:03. > :32:05.Labour's Angela Eagle and Amber Rudd,
:32:06. > :32:08.the Cabinet Minister. She had apparently been briefed
:32:09. > :32:10.by Downing Street to target her fellow Tory,
:32:11. > :32:15.Boris Johnson, personally. You need to look at the numbers,
:32:16. > :32:18.although I fear the only number Boris is interested in is the one
:32:19. > :32:23.that says number ten. But the fact is, he is the life
:32:24. > :32:27.and soul of the party but he's not the man you want driving you home
:32:28. > :32:37.at the end of the evening. Straight after Amber Rudd's attack
:32:38. > :32:41.on Johnson, David Cameron tweets that Amber Rudd is the star
:32:42. > :32:45.of the programme. I don't think I would want Boris
:32:46. > :32:50.to drive me anywhere actually! I don't think she meant
:32:51. > :32:54.anything particularly sinister. I wasn't quite sure whether this
:32:55. > :32:57.was trying to suggest that Boris was a drunk driver or that he
:32:58. > :33:00.was not safe in taxis. Either way, it was deeply
:33:01. > :33:02.undignified and a potentially lewd comment for a Cabinet
:33:03. > :33:05.Minister to make. What did Johnson make
:33:06. > :33:07.about Amber Rudd's charge that he was only interested
:33:08. > :33:11.in getting to number ten? I really just repeat
:33:12. > :33:13.what I have said. I think people genuinely
:33:14. > :33:16.want to focus on the issues. Yes, of course people
:33:17. > :33:20.will want to distract into all sorts of sideshows but the crucial thing
:33:21. > :33:24.is, what are the facts The immigration issue has been
:33:25. > :33:35.the trump card played Johnson and Michael Gove send
:33:36. > :33:43.an open letter to the Prime Minister which accuses him of corroding
:33:44. > :33:45.public trust A Leave campaign resorting to total
:33:46. > :33:54.untruths to con people It is irresponsible, it is wrong,
:33:55. > :34:01.and it is time that the Leave campaign was called out
:34:02. > :34:04.on the nonsense that Don't make this choice on the basis
:34:05. > :34:11.of false information. Let me take on this issue absolutely
:34:12. > :34:14.directly because I am I am the proud descendant
:34:15. > :34:23.of Turkish immigrants. And let me stun you perhaps
:34:24. > :34:32.by saying I will go further, I'm not only pro-immigration,
:34:33. > :34:34.I'm pro-immigrants and I am in favour of an amnesty for illegal
:34:35. > :34:36.immigrants who have been The bitter exchanges
:34:37. > :34:42.between the Prime Minister and the leading contender
:34:43. > :34:45.for his crown exemplify a campaign widely seen as the most divisive
:34:46. > :34:49.and duplicitous of modern times. And the greatest irony could be
:34:50. > :34:53.that, after the referendum results come in, neither man will end up
:34:54. > :34:56.with the job they have each fought for since
:34:57. > :35:09.they were at school together. Michael cockerel on the big
:35:10. > :35:11.divisions at the top of the Conservative party.
:35:12. > :35:16.The key European issues have sometimes felt like a surface row
:35:17. > :35:20.The referendum is like a couple arguing over who should walk
:35:21. > :35:22.the dog, when the tension between them is really about one
:35:23. > :35:26.We've seen divisions between those who think the world is working
:35:27. > :35:30.Between London and other parts of the country, between
:35:31. > :35:31.younger progressives and older conservatives.
:35:32. > :35:34.All of these are fuzzy divides, but our politics has been
:35:35. > :35:35.stretched and contorted in the weirdest of ways.
:35:36. > :35:38.It's not obvious the party system can take the strain.
:35:39. > :35:40.I'm back with my panel of Niall Ferguson,
:35:41. > :35:44.Trevor Kavanagh, Isabel Hardman and Aditya Chakrabotty.
:35:45. > :35:52.Better start on the Conservative party. I do not know if this can be
:35:53. > :35:59.put back together or if there is a vague Remain win or Brexit. It is
:36:00. > :36:02.more difficult in the event of Remain because you have a lot of
:36:03. > :36:04.Conservative MPs who will feel betrayed and so the government
:36:05. > :36:08.machine was harnessed against them in the campaign, particularly given
:36:09. > :36:13.David Cameron walked into Downing Street this week and started
:36:14. > :36:17.gesticulating at the door behind him during the period when you are not
:36:18. > :36:21.supposed to use government buildings and gave a statement about why
:36:22. > :36:25.Britain should vote to remain. These things will come to the surface if
:36:26. > :36:28.there is a Remain vote and it will be difficult for David Cameron to
:36:29. > :36:32.reunite the party, not just in terms of people not staging a coup against
:36:33. > :36:36.him but in terms of getting any domestic reforms through the Commons
:36:37. > :36:41.with a tiny majority. If there is a Brexit when, you are assuming he
:36:42. > :36:46.will go? Has been post-conflict planning to stop him from going
:36:47. > :36:50.immediately so that he can steer the country through a very difficult
:36:51. > :36:53.time. He will have to work hard at going back on some of the warnings
:36:54. > :37:02.he has made during the campaign, he said Brexit would put a warm under
:37:03. > :37:06.the economy! Trevor, how do you think the Conservative party will
:37:07. > :37:10.look after this? They are in a lot of trouble, I cannot see how they
:37:11. > :37:14.can put the genie back in the bottle because one thing that is not seen
:37:15. > :37:19.by outsiders is on the he has a disciplined Commons party, many of
:37:20. > :37:25.those fighting for Remain are actually four Brexit themselves, and
:37:26. > :37:29.you will see a lot of peerages and knighthoods which are suddenly
:37:30. > :37:35.popping out as a reward to these people and a lot of people is --
:37:36. > :37:39.another thing is this is Europe as well, this dissatisfaction with the
:37:40. > :37:44.EU is spread across the EU and what is happening in Britain is really an
:37:45. > :37:47.antagonism towards Brussels which is by proxy the view which is
:37:48. > :37:57.resonating across Europe, it is not over. Let us go back to the man you
:37:58. > :38:01.met in the gym, this is the schism, in the country as opposed to the
:38:02. > :38:09.Conservative party, it has highlighted... If use depth back
:38:10. > :38:14.from the hot blue on blue action, you have a governing class that
:38:15. > :38:19.cannot govern very well, the first referendum on Europe since Harold
:38:20. > :38:22.Wilson, Wilson winning that by a thumping majority, Harold Wilson
:38:23. > :38:25.would never ask a question to which he was not confident on the answer
:38:26. > :38:35.he would get and the day after, I looked at how my paper reported
:38:36. > :38:38.this, the front page said Eu euphoria, imagine either of those
:38:39. > :38:46.headlines emerging on Friday or Saturday. If you go by the polls,
:38:47. > :38:52.you have a narrow Remain factory in which one side might lose but nobody
:38:53. > :38:57.wins. And what I can see, if you go out and go to places looking like
:38:58. > :39:00.they might vote for Leave, they hate the lot of them, if you ask, why do
:39:01. > :39:07.you want to leave? Things cannot get worse. But you will not in a fit if
:39:08. > :39:13.you leave. We have had enough. Tony Blair, Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, what
:39:14. > :39:18.you see in the East of England and the Northeast and Wales, essentially
:39:19. > :39:25.a sense that they have tuned out the entire political class. This
:39:26. > :39:32.proposed insurrection? A very solemn mutiny. This is happening all over
:39:33. > :39:36.the world, that has not been a star Trek about the 1970s, Wilson ran the
:39:37. > :39:39.more effective campaign in a country that was falling apart when is what
:39:40. > :39:43.is happening at the moment is in fact revolt of rising expectation.
:39:44. > :39:47.One of the reasons there is an immigration issue is the economy has
:39:48. > :39:52.been doing so well, it has been attracting more people not only from
:39:53. > :39:56.the EU but the rest of the world. And discouraging people from
:39:57. > :40:00.leaving, which is white net migration has gone up so part of the
:40:01. > :40:04.issue is, I agree, a populist backlash against the political elite
:40:05. > :40:09.but we must recognise that in some measure, David Cameron is a victim
:40:10. > :40:13.of his own success. The success of the economy and creating jobs, there
:40:14. > :40:19.is very low -- unemployment in the country, despite the warnings... The
:40:20. > :40:24.public are listening to and saying, you are one of them and you don't
:40:25. > :40:26.get it. His net migration target has hugely angry voters because the
:40:27. > :40:32.Conservatives have been unable to articulate how they can meet this
:40:33. > :40:35.and have a thriller last parliament they talked about EU reform and
:40:36. > :40:38.freedom of movement and they could not get that and they are stuck with
:40:39. > :40:42.this target that they keep sticking to purely to be able to stick to the
:40:43. > :40:46.promises, which is something politicians are obsessed with. I
:40:47. > :40:51.thought the referendum is a mistake but in the immigration debate it
:40:52. > :40:54.seems that we have lost sight of the fact that the majority of people
:40:55. > :40:56.came to this country in the last two years and were not from the EU,
:40:57. > :41:00.asylum seekers are tiny percentage of the people that come to this
:41:01. > :41:08.country, we have total control over this. This is a debate about the EU.
:41:09. > :41:13.Membership of the EU. Most of the migrants come here from outside the
:41:14. > :41:18.EU. The public ride in broad sense to feel like we have been ripped
:41:19. > :41:23.off? People think they have been told things will work for us but not
:41:24. > :41:28.here? The vast majority of the working classes, a skilled and
:41:29. > :41:32.semiskilled and unskilled, feel no benefit whatsoever from the
:41:33. > :41:36.recovery. Our economy might well be the best in Europe and one of the
:41:37. > :41:40.best in the world but the recovery is incredibly fragile, we still have
:41:41. > :41:48.a huge national debt and the national deficit is growing, not
:41:49. > :41:51.shrinking. If mass immigration is so good for the economy, why are people
:41:52. > :41:57.struggling for jobs in this country in certain areas? What is
:41:58. > :42:03.interesting is Trevor from the sun is quite close to where you are in
:42:04. > :42:10.the Guardian although you focus on the British elite and you focus on
:42:11. > :42:14.the EU elite. This referendum is not one that anyone particularly wanted
:42:15. > :42:19.to have, the question is not one the voters are opposing, if you talk
:42:20. > :42:24.about the Lisbon Treaty or the European Central Bank, they say, why
:42:25. > :42:28.have no wages not gone up and when can make it scuttled the housing
:42:29. > :42:31.ladder? They have their own answers and they try to squeeze them into
:42:32. > :42:37.this binary of in or out. I completely agree with Isabel about
:42:38. > :42:41.immigration, it has been wave after wave of broken promises, everything
:42:42. > :42:45.from Iraq to the boom were meant to be going through to what was meant
:42:46. > :42:50.to replace the industrialisation in places like the Northeast and Wales.
:42:51. > :42:55.Let us finish on Labour, he started on the Conservatives. In many
:42:56. > :43:01.respects, this is turning out to be a very big problem for Labour.
:43:02. > :43:05.Labour is the weak link. It is the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn that is
:43:06. > :43:10.a problem. Really, this referendum is going to the wire because of
:43:11. > :43:13.Jeremy Corbyn and he is a disastrous leader who cannot get his supporters
:43:14. > :43:17.are to support Remain. At the start of the campaign Labour MPs were
:43:18. > :43:21.worried about the lack of enthusiasm for turning photo site but I was
:43:22. > :43:24.talking to some of the last few weeks who said you don't necessarily
:43:25. > :43:28.want voters to come out because they will Vote Leave, we would rather
:43:29. > :43:33.they stayed in bed and that is not just Jeremy Corbyn. This is an
:43:34. > :43:36.institutional Labour problem. That they have not addressed for years
:43:37. > :43:41.and some of them are starting to worry this could be the party's
:43:42. > :43:43.Scottish problem, they were warned about a problem with the
:43:44. > :43:48.nationalists and they never really addressed it. They are doing the
:43:49. > :43:53.same immigration. Suddenly, something happens that they cannot
:43:54. > :43:58.control which is a referendum in which they are on the wrong side.
:43:59. > :44:06.You are looking at the kind of slowed death of Labour, South Wales,
:44:07. > :44:09.the Northeast. But you also looking at a disintegration of the liberal
:44:10. > :44:15.mainstream and both parties because represents that but also the wing of
:44:16. > :44:21.the Dutch are right of Labour MPs and there is no currency in being a
:44:22. > :44:27.mainstream centrist politician, all the hot money goes to the polls of
:44:28. > :44:31.the political debate. Are the centrist ones in the Tory party and
:44:32. > :44:36.Labour Party, might they say we have got a lot of common with each other?
:44:37. > :44:40.We disagree on everything expect the simple fact is, the question of
:44:41. > :44:44.immigration has affected Labour voters in a way in which has been
:44:45. > :44:46.undeniable except in the Labour Party. We need to leave it there.
:44:47. > :44:49.Well, that is it from us for tonight, and from
:44:50. > :44:53.We are not here tomorrow - but we will all be watching
:44:54. > :44:55.the results programme on BBC One which starts at 9.55pm.
:44:56. > :44:57.Emily will be there, as well as David Dimbleby.
:44:58. > :44:59.I will be back in this chair on Friday,
:45:00. > :45:21.Thunderstorms have already bought some intense downpours across parts
:45:22. > :45:24.of Sussex and Kent this evenly and an Amber Warning in force from the
:45:25. > :45:25.edge that Office means there is potential for further disruptive
:45:26. > :45:26.downpours in