:00:00. > :00:10.I no longer have confidence in his leadership.
:00:11. > :00:17.Britain's global role remains undiminished.
:00:18. > :00:21.He can hold on like grim death, but I think it will be the death
:00:22. > :00:24.We should hold fast to a vision of Britain...
:00:25. > :00:27.I think we need to go and have the leadership election
:00:28. > :00:32.TRANSLATION: No informal talks about the exit of Great Britain.
:00:33. > :00:38.It's clear now that Project Fear is over.
:00:39. > :00:41.And the country will thank neither the benches in front
:00:42. > :00:46.And I thought I was having a bad day!
:00:47. > :00:50.For indulging in internal factioning manoeuvring at this time.
:00:51. > :01:10.England said it wanted to exit Europe, but not, surely,
:01:11. > :01:12.2-1 down to Iceland - accompanied by the resignation
:01:13. > :01:16.of yet another of national leader in the form of Roy Hodgson.
:01:17. > :01:19.Prepare for an onslaught of Brexit gags - I suggest it maybe wise not
:01:20. > :01:21.to read the sports pages of continental newspapers
:01:22. > :01:30.But the football was not the only drama today. It was also quite
:01:31. > :01:33.a scene in the Commons. The Prime Minister, his tormentors,
:01:34. > :01:36.Jeremy Corybyn was there in the middle of a coup,
:01:37. > :01:38.the Chancellor had come out of hiding too,
:01:39. > :01:42.And Mr Cameron switched out of campaign mode,
:01:43. > :01:50.It was not the result I wanted, nor the outcome I believe is best
:01:51. > :01:54.But there can be no doubt about the result.
:01:55. > :01:57.Of course, I don't take back what I said about the risks.
:01:58. > :02:01.We've already seen there are going to be adjustments
:02:02. > :02:04.with our economy, complex constitutional issues
:02:05. > :02:07.and challenging new negotiation to undertake with Europe.
:02:08. > :02:11.But I am clear, the Cabinet agreed this morning, that the decision must
:02:12. > :02:13.be accepted and the process of implementing the decision
:02:14. > :02:25.in the best possible way must now begin.
:02:26. > :02:33.There was one tiny point in a response to the SNP leader. Listen.
:02:34. > :02:36.Let me say this to him, Scotland benefits from being in two
:02:37. > :02:38.single markets, the United Kingdom and the European single market.
:02:39. > :02:42.In my view, the best outcome is to try and keep Scotland in both.
:02:43. > :02:49.Was he telling us that Britain should be in the single market?
:02:50. > :02:52.That's not what Vote Leave had been saying.
:02:53. > :02:54.But we'll discuss all this and more.
:02:55. > :02:55.Let's focus on the Labour Party first.
:02:56. > :02:58.Last year, it defied the experts, challenged the established order and
:02:59. > :03:01.Has that experiment in new politics worked?
:03:02. > :03:03.Not according to the Parliamentary Labour Party, which is
:03:04. > :03:07.Nor the Shadow Cabinet, which has had
:03:08. > :03:12.The leadership has been fighting back though.
:03:13. > :03:22.Our political editor, Nick Watt, reports.
:03:23. > :03:32.Corbyn in, Tories out! Britain's political earthquake has cost the
:03:33. > :03:38.Prime Minister his job and, tonight, it forced labour's Civil War onto
:03:39. > :03:41.the streets of London. In the worst day of his leadership, Jeremy Corbyn
:03:42. > :03:45.suffered a mass exodus from the Shadow Cabinet. Later, at a bruising
:03:46. > :03:52.meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party, MPs borrowed from the Tory
:03:53. > :03:56.rule book as they embraced regicide. A no-confidence vote will be held
:03:57. > :03:59.tomorrow, prompting a defiant response from Jeremy Corbyn as he
:04:00. > :04:10.addressed a rally of thousands of his supporters in Parliament Square.
:04:11. > :04:14.Era don't Don't let those people who wishes ill... Jeremy Corbyn finally
:04:15. > :04:19.felt at home as he bathed in warm support of his fan base in the
:04:20. > :04:22.Momentum group in Parliament Square. The contrasting perceptions between
:04:23. > :04:25.here and there highlighted the battle lines in the power struggle
:04:26. > :04:32.for the control of the Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn says it is grassroots
:04:33. > :04:36.members that should decide its future, whereas Labour MPs say it is
:04:37. > :04:40.they, as representatives of the wider electorate, who have the
:04:41. > :04:45.decisive say. He can't be the leader of the Labour Party without having
:04:46. > :04:48.sufficient support, let alone good support, in the Parliamentary Labour
:04:49. > :04:53.Party, nor should you be the leader of the Labour Party if you haven't
:04:54. > :04:56.got the support of the wider membership and the country at large.
:04:57. > :05:01.Any leader of the Labour Party needs to look at themselves closely and
:05:02. > :05:07.say, do I command support in both? If the answer is no, your position
:05:08. > :05:10.is untenable. Newsnight understands that a group of former Labour
:05:11. > :05:14.frontbenchers have been comparing the operation to unseat Jeremy
:05:15. > :05:18.Corbyn four months. They had expected to wait another year, but
:05:19. > :05:24.decided to move after his lacklustre performance in the referendum
:05:25. > :05:29.campaign, a view highlighted by one of the departing frontbenchers. In
:05:30. > :05:32.his performance both during the months leading up to the European
:05:33. > :05:36.referendum and also during the campaign itself, he displayed a lack
:05:37. > :05:42.of understanding of the fundamental issues relating to migration and the
:05:43. > :05:45.economy that were crucial, needed to be communicated and simply weren't.
:05:46. > :05:49.I think we are now in a crisis situation for the country. We have
:05:50. > :05:54.to have an effective opposition. I knew that Jeremy couldn't provide
:05:55. > :05:57.that. Senior Labour figures say there is one simple reason above all
:05:58. > :06:02.else for the coup. They fear that a general election could be held
:06:03. > :06:05.within months and that Corbyn's failure to connect with traditional
:06:06. > :06:09.Labour supporters during the referendum could lead to an
:06:10. > :06:12.electoral wipe-out. You're not talking about one part of the party
:06:13. > :06:17.that is doing something, this extends all across the party, it is
:06:18. > :06:22.serious stuff and totally unprecedented. It's very difficult,
:06:23. > :06:26.I think, for a leader to function for a matter of weeks, let alone
:06:27. > :06:32.into a general election. One veteran says there is rare unity across most
:06:33. > :06:37.of the party. He didn't recognise the scale of the challenge, the
:06:38. > :06:43.special responsibility he has as the leader of the Labour Party. He has
:06:44. > :06:48.lost that pledge that he gave when he first became leader, to lead a
:06:49. > :06:53.broad and inclusive party, instead, he is in a position where he has
:06:54. > :06:57.lost the support of MPs across the political Brett Favre the Labour
:06:58. > :07:00.Party. There is now such contempt for Jeremy Corbyn that his Labour
:07:01. > :07:06.enemies are even briefing that he ended up voting to Leave in the
:07:07. > :07:10.referendum, strenuously denied by his office. One figure at the heart
:07:11. > :07:16.of the Labour referendum campaign hit back at critics by saying the
:07:17. > :07:22.reluctant Remainer, as Corbyn's allies dubbed him, was an asset.
:07:23. > :07:28.Can't argue with the result, in the end, people looked at both arguments
:07:29. > :07:33.and we were unable to convince them to vote Remain. Where Jeremy was is
:07:34. > :07:39.much closer to the electorate than many of us. It took a Bend to
:07:40. > :07:43.trigger the showdown between the leadership and the rest of the
:07:44. > :07:50.Parliamentary party. Jeremy Corbyn's great hero once likened the Labour
:07:51. > :07:53.Party to a burden that needs a left and right wing to fly. Relations are
:07:54. > :07:56.so bad that senior figures are now saying that the bird may split in
:07:57. > :08:06.two. You have more later news? I've been
:08:07. > :08:10.speaking to one of the main coup plotters, they say they are planning
:08:11. > :08:15.to meet tomorrow morning to reach agreement on an agreed candidate but
:08:16. > :08:21.withstand this, as expected, he loses this vote of no-confidence. --
:08:22. > :08:26.which would stand. Angela Eagle, Dan Jarvis, that is not to say they are
:08:27. > :08:30.willing and ready to stand, but these are the name is gaining some
:08:31. > :08:33.support and they will hopefully get them to stand. It is a change of
:08:34. > :08:37.tactics. Earlier in the day, the plotters were saying they should not
:08:38. > :08:42.stand a candidate, if they did, it would be an indication to Momentum
:08:43. > :08:46.to cause trouble. But things are moving so quickly, they say they
:08:47. > :08:51.need to move as well. You referred to that ugly Parliamentary meeting?
:08:52. > :08:54.It was the worst Parliamentary meeting I have stood outside. I
:08:55. > :08:58.spoke to a current frontbencher and a former member of the Labour
:08:59. > :09:02.cabinet, and they said to me that Jeremy Corbyn was not listening to
:09:03. > :09:06.their message and they think there is only one thing for it, the party
:09:07. > :09:10.will now have to split. I find that unlikely, but that is where you
:09:11. > :09:14.would have the Parliamentary Labour Party doing a unilateral declaration
:09:15. > :09:17.of Independence and they would be the main opposition party. Highly
:09:18. > :09:20.unlikely, but it shows how bad things are. I am joined now by
:09:21. > :09:25.Richard Burden. a prominent ally of Jeremy Corbyn,
:09:26. > :09:34.who appointed him today Did you ever dream when you were
:09:35. > :09:37.elected a year ago, at quite a young age, that he would be shadow Lord
:09:38. > :09:41.Chancellor by now? I have never dreamt much in politics about that
:09:42. > :09:46.position or this position, I just want to do the best for the people
:09:47. > :09:49.and the communities that Labour represents, I haven't given it much
:09:50. > :09:54.thought, the idea of promotion. Rapid promotion. Is it possible that
:09:55. > :10:00.this thing can work, with Jeremy Corbyn clearly not having the
:10:01. > :10:04.support of the Parliamentary party? How does this work? What I would
:10:05. > :10:09.start off by saying is that I am deeply, deeply disappointed, as
:10:10. > :10:15.Labour members and voters across the country, the Conservative government
:10:16. > :10:19.is in trouble, up to its neck, when we have a situation of increased
:10:20. > :10:24.economic and political uncertainty due to the decision to leave the EU,
:10:25. > :10:27.that rather than turning fire on the Conservative government, instead,
:10:28. > :10:32.some Labour MPs have chosen to manufacture an attempt at a
:10:33. > :10:36.leadership coup and put on the front page of the newspaper, not the
:10:37. > :10:39.trouble the Conservatives are in, not to damage the Conservatives are
:10:40. > :10:43.doing to people and communities around the country, but rows in the
:10:44. > :10:47.internal Parliamentary Labour Party on the front pages, I think that is
:10:48. > :10:50.very disappointing. I think it is letting the Conservatives off the
:10:51. > :10:53.hook. What you think Jeremy Corbyn would do if he was a backbench MP
:10:54. > :11:03.and didn't agree with the leadership of his party? Do you think he would
:11:04. > :11:05.be restrained in what he says or how he votes, what he does? There is a
:11:06. > :11:09.difference between principled opposition on this or that policy
:11:10. > :11:14.and an attempt to capsize the whole ship. If Liz Kendall had been
:11:15. > :11:18.elected leader, if Andy Burnham had been elected, if Yvette Cooper had
:11:19. > :11:23.been elected, I would not have been, and my members and people voting for
:11:24. > :11:26.me would not expect me to be, engaging in an attempt to capsize
:11:27. > :11:29.the whole ship. I think it is wrong, I think it is a distraction and
:11:30. > :11:33.letting the Conservatives off the hook. Do you think the party can
:11:34. > :11:44.survive? Nick Ward has been speaking to people whose opinion is that the
:11:45. > :11:47.party was blessed. Can it survive in its current form? What the Labour
:11:48. > :11:51.Party, my colleagues, need to understand is that there is no
:11:52. > :11:54.future for labour as a vehicle to connect with ordinary working people
:11:55. > :11:57.and change the lives of working people the length and breadth of the
:11:58. > :12:05.country, if we return to the politics of what is considered by so
:12:06. > :12:09.many to be the establishment. There is no future for Labour if they
:12:10. > :12:17.return to the political and economic status quo, which saw Labour lose
:12:18. > :12:22.the trust of people. This is about what the Labour Party is about. The
:12:23. > :12:26.lesson of the European Union referendum is that people out there
:12:27. > :12:30.are angry at the political and economic establishment. If people
:12:31. > :12:33.think the way forward for Labour is to return to being perceived as a
:12:34. > :12:39.party of the political and economic establishment, they are seriously
:12:40. > :12:41.mistaken. It would be politically and editorially disastrous. Aren't
:12:42. > :12:44.you saying to people that have profound disagreements with the
:12:45. > :12:48.direction of the party, it is disloyal, you have to agree with us,
:12:49. > :12:54.you can't question it? Jeremy Corbyn would never have done that, he
:12:55. > :12:57.defied the web about 428 times. These people have their consciences,
:12:58. > :13:03.just as you have yours and there is no reason why they should support
:13:04. > :13:06.someone they just don't support. The truth is, Jeremy Corbyn was elected
:13:07. > :13:10.with an overwhelming majority, the biggest mandate that any political
:13:11. > :13:15.leader in British history has been elected upon. He has only been in
:13:16. > :13:19.position for nine months. We have had four victories in the
:13:20. > :13:26.Parliamentary by-elections, in three of which we increased the Labour
:13:27. > :13:32.share of the votes. We won four mayoral elections. On the European
:13:33. > :13:35.referendum, Jeremy Corbyn saying that it is not ideal, but on balance
:13:36. > :13:39.we should change it in favour of ordinary people and make it more
:13:40. > :13:42.democratic, that resonated more with the electorates than some of those
:13:43. > :13:46.criticising them, who thought the way forward in working class areas
:13:47. > :13:49.in the north-east and elsewhere was ticked people that the European
:13:50. > :13:55.Union was perfect, nobody believed it. You have to admit that Jeremy
:13:56. > :13:58.Corbyn is a radical, more than the British mainstream. To make it work
:13:59. > :14:01.from that position, in a general election, you would have to be
:14:02. > :14:05.supremely confident and supremely united around a position that you
:14:06. > :14:11.are taking. That is just not the impression your party is giving now.
:14:12. > :14:14.Do you really think you could win a general election before the end of
:14:15. > :14:19.this year with the Shadow Cabinet having deserted the leader and with
:14:20. > :14:22.Jeremy Corbyn still in place? A new Shadow Cabinet is in place. When you
:14:23. > :14:26.talk about Jeremy Corbyn being radical, I don't think there is
:14:27. > :14:30.anything radical about proposing a ?10 an hour minimum wage, I don't
:14:31. > :14:32.think there's anything radical about proposing a massive building
:14:33. > :14:36.programme of council houses, I don't think there is anything radical in
:14:37. > :14:40.thinking that Britain made a huge mistake in getting involved in the
:14:41. > :14:45.Iraq war. We can win the next general election. But if we don't,
:14:46. > :14:49.then I think some people need to ask themselves this question, did it
:14:50. > :14:54.help or harm Labour, did it help or harm the people of Labour, the
:14:55. > :14:57.people that they represent, manufacturing a leadership row,
:14:58. > :14:59.letting the Tories off the hook and basically making the news story
:15:00. > :15:02.divisions in the Parliamentary Labour Party, not the mess the
:15:03. > :15:07.Conservative government is making of this country?
:15:08. > :15:13.If he loses a motion of no confidence, does he step down and go
:15:14. > :15:19.to another contest, what happens at that point? First of all, we
:15:20. > :15:23.shouldn't have a leadership contest. There's more important things to do.
:15:24. > :15:28.We should be focussing our fire on the Conservatives. If Labour MPs go
:15:29. > :15:31.through with it, and vote no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn
:15:32. > :15:36.tomorrow, then I think they've got to understand that in order to
:15:37. > :15:39.remove Jeremy Corbyn, the duly elected Labour leader nine months
:15:40. > :15:44.ago with a huge mandate, they have to take part in a democratic
:15:45. > :15:48.process. All the candidates who stood for Labour, at the last
:15:49. > :15:52.leadership election, said they wanted to empower members. We
:15:53. > :15:55.shouldn't be seeking to silence members or disrespect the democratic
:15:56. > :16:02.choice that they made. You're implying that he can limp on. I'm
:16:03. > :16:05.not implying anything about limping. If Jeremy Corbyn has to stand in a
:16:06. > :16:09.leadership election and he is prepared to do so, there's a very
:16:10. > :16:12.good chance of Jeremy Corbyn being re-elected as leader of the Labour
:16:13. > :16:18.Party. If he is, what MPs should do then is what they should be doing
:16:19. > :16:21.now, which is ending the in-fighting, end the the inward
:16:22. > :16:24.looking behaviour and focussing on the real enmy the Conservative
:16:25. > :16:28.Government doing so much harm to people and public services in this
:16:29. > :16:29.country. Thanks ever so much, sorry about that annoying ear piece. No
:16:30. > :16:32.problem, thank you. Now, the plan had been to take up 14
:16:33. > :16:37.weeks for a new leader to be selected, rather more than the five
:16:38. > :16:40.days it took, when Margaret But the 1922 Committee,
:16:41. > :16:43.which governs the leadership election, decided to expedite that
:16:44. > :16:46.timetable by a month, so a new leader will be in place
:16:47. > :16:49.by the 2nd of September. And to meet that deadline,
:16:50. > :16:51.the candidates have to declare themselves by this Thursday,
:16:52. > :16:54.so the race is on. Emily has been looking
:16:55. > :17:04.at the likely runners. I will do everything I can as Prime
:17:05. > :17:07.Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months, but I do
:17:08. > :17:14.not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers
:17:15. > :17:17.our country to its next destination. The naught cull metaphors that
:17:18. > :17:21.emerge from a Prime Minister close to tears sounded appropriately
:17:22. > :17:24.seafaringly British, that extraordinary morning. Sure enough
:17:25. > :17:29.the search for that captain began in earnest this week. The party of
:17:30. > :17:33.Government, riven by its war over Europe, now has to try harder than
:17:34. > :17:38.ever to put division behind it. The question is two fold: Who can unify
:17:39. > :17:43.and who can win, each useless without the other. Gold Medal. It's
:17:44. > :17:48.no secret that Boris Johnson wants the job. But can the zip wire
:17:49. > :17:52.drifter, laughed at by the French, pull it off? He can certainly be
:17:53. > :17:56.serious. I think he increased his stature during the campaign. He did
:17:57. > :17:58.very well before the Treasury Select Committee answering some very
:17:59. > :18:04.difficult questions over an extended period. He showed that he'd gone up
:18:05. > :18:09.a level in people's estimation in the debates. Can he be a unifying?
:18:10. > :18:14.That takes two to tango. We'll see what the losing side wants. He's
:18:15. > :18:20.currently the runaway favourite, an irony not lost on his colleagues.
:18:21. > :18:24.I'm a veteran of three leadership cam painings. I can tell you this --
:18:25. > :18:28.campaigns, I can tell you this - the favourite never wins. You don't
:18:29. > :18:31.think it's going to be him? I think he's an admirable candidate. He will
:18:32. > :18:36.be one of many. If you're telling me he's the favourite, I'm telling you
:18:37. > :18:41.that the favourite never wins. Boris Johnson is the candidate the party
:18:42. > :18:45.goes to for its adrenaline fixed described by one MP as a four-year
:18:46. > :18:49.ride on a big dipper. I understand he has the backing of Rupert Murdoch
:18:50. > :18:55.and that may count for a lot. He's been described by some in his own
:18:56. > :19:00.party as "a little bit grubby" his self-interest never too far from the
:19:01. > :19:05.surface. Don't be surprised if the see a stop Boris campaign gathering
:19:06. > :19:10.momentum too. Heidi Allen is backing anyone but. For me it is clear that
:19:11. > :19:15.it was a leadership bid for Boris. Even as recent as February he was
:19:16. > :19:17.saying that a Brexit vote would cause uncertainty for business and
:19:18. > :19:22.Government shouldn't be distracted with these things. It seemed obvious
:19:23. > :19:25.that this was about his desire to be leader rather than putting the
:19:26. > :19:30.country first. When a man is leading a campaign that stands in front of a
:19:31. > :19:34.great red butt that says ?350 million for the NHS then says maybe
:19:35. > :19:37.not, that does not set us on the right path to change the
:19:38. > :19:41.relationship we have with voters. You don't think people can trust
:19:42. > :19:46.Boris? I would ask them to consider whether he has the qualities they
:19:47. > :19:52.want in a leader. Looking for that transparency and having people trust
:19:53. > :19:56.us again. My in-box is in melt down predominantly people who wanted to
:19:57. > :20:01.remain and those who voted to Leave and feel duped and felt that they
:20:02. > :20:05.were sold a pup. In politics, I know we're sales people. Do you trust the
:20:06. > :20:09.manifesto, do you trust the things we're saying? On this occasion, it's
:20:10. > :20:12.gone too far. He stood in front of that campaign, for that reason,
:20:13. > :20:16.people will have lost faith in him. She's not the only one with her
:20:17. > :20:23.doubts about Boris Johnson. This speech was uploaded onto the
:20:24. > :20:26.internet's biggest porn site labelling him Britain's dumbest
:20:27. > :20:33.blonde. Theresa May is expected to put her name in the ring. I think
:20:34. > :20:41.she's a very formidable woman and I think because maybe she's quite shy,
:20:42. > :20:44.a lot of people don't see her as, you know, she's not out there
:20:45. > :20:48.smiling, she's shy and she's very focussed. I think we need somebody
:20:49. > :21:00.as serious as Theresa May, who knows her stuff and knows Brussels.
:21:01. > :21:06.An tray Leadson may put her name in too. We heard from the Chancellor
:21:07. > :21:11.this morning, George Osborne. It will not be plain sailing in the
:21:12. > :21:14.days ahead. Statesman like, but sombre, the man who once saw his
:21:15. > :21:18.chance of leading the country riding high, now accepts he's more likely
:21:19. > :21:23.to have to follow in behind a former rival. The Brexit budget may have
:21:24. > :21:29.disappeared from the rhetoric, but he was determined not to row back
:21:30. > :21:34.from, he would say, from a single one of those doom-laden prophecies.
:21:35. > :21:38.He's weighing up right now whether he could work for Boris Johnson
:21:39. > :21:41.perhaps as Foreign Secretary or even for Theresa May, but there's little
:21:42. > :21:44.love loss there. Whatever the choices they need to be fast. Any
:21:45. > :21:49.names not submitted to the ballot by Thursday won't be in the ring for
:21:50. > :21:53.the leadership. That perhaps is key. One Remainor tells me this can't
:21:54. > :21:56.look like an ey based beauty contest. The country is looking to
:21:57. > :22:00.the Government at a time of national crisis. The demand for grown ups,
:22:01. > :22:10.what that means, is high. Any late developments on the Tory
:22:11. > :22:13.leadership front? I had a long conversation with one of George
:22:14. > :22:17.Osborne's oldest friends today. He told me that he is not going to
:22:18. > :22:22.stand in this Tory leadership contest, and if you pick up a copy
:22:23. > :22:25.of the Times you will see an article by George Osborne saying precisely
:22:26. > :22:28.that. This friend said to me at the moment George Osborne is not
:22:29. > :22:34.planning to endorse anyone. But he still wants a role in the next
:22:35. > :22:36.Government. He is leaning towards Boris Johnson and I think we hear
:22:37. > :22:41.mention of the Foreign Office possibly. He could go down that
:22:42. > :22:45.route. It's interesting when Boris Johnson launches his campaign later
:22:46. > :22:50.this week, you will hear him say, I am the unity candidate. I can bring
:22:51. > :22:55.together Remain and Levy. That is why he's reaching -- Leave. He is
:22:56. > :22:59.reaching out by mad to the Remain camp. He would love George Osborne
:23:00. > :23:04.on board. There will be a big Stop Boris campaign. The person being the
:23:05. > :23:07.biggest beneficiary will be Theresa May.
:23:08. > :23:09.The Times suggesting that Theresa May has had a surge in support if
:23:10. > :23:12.the last few days. When the dust settles,
:23:13. > :23:15.the big issue will be what is our relationship
:23:16. > :23:17.with the EU, and how is that going Essentially there are three broad
:23:18. > :23:21.outcomes: That we leave properly,
:23:22. > :23:24.exiting the EU and the single market and that we no longer
:23:25. > :23:27.have free movement. That we half leave by going
:23:28. > :23:30.into the European Economic Area, That's outside the EU,
:23:31. > :23:35.but in the single market And then - which must
:23:36. > :23:40.be least likely - There are also three roads
:23:41. > :23:49.to those destinations - Parliament and Government
:23:50. > :23:51.could make the decision. MPs would probably choose Norway
:23:52. > :23:54.at this point, if they could. Then there's the possibility
:23:55. > :23:57.of a general election to decide, with parties pitching
:23:58. > :24:00.their view to the voters - the Lib Dems for example have said
:24:01. > :24:03.they'll campaign to Then there's the second referendum
:24:04. > :24:09.option, that we talk to the Europeans, and have
:24:10. > :24:12.a vote at the end of it. Lots of destinations and ways of
:24:13. > :24:21.getting there. Chris Cook has been thinking
:24:22. > :24:23.about the practical and legal questions over the journey
:24:24. > :24:29.on which we are soon to embark. Brexit will be one of the most
:24:30. > :24:32.complex, all-consuming tasks facing any British Government
:24:33. > :24:35.since the war. And, right now, there are 1,000
:24:36. > :24:37.different combinations and permutations about how it
:24:38. > :24:39.might play out. So, it's worth focusing on just
:24:40. > :24:42.a few of the biggest moving The first of these moving parts
:24:43. > :24:52.is something called Article 50. That's Article 50 of the treaty that
:24:53. > :24:55.underpins the European Union. What that provides for is
:24:56. > :24:57.a process by which a member But it's important to know
:24:58. > :25:02.a few details about it. First of all, once we formally
:25:03. > :25:05.invoke Article 50, there will be a two-year period for us
:25:06. > :25:07.to negotiate our exit, In fact, we are not
:25:08. > :25:14.going to invoke that until we have a new Prime Minister
:25:15. > :25:17.over there in Downing Street. But there is an argument about
:25:18. > :25:19.whether the new Prime Minister, on their own, will actually be
:25:20. > :25:22.allowed to invoke Article 50, or whether it will have to be
:25:23. > :25:24.put through Parliament. So, could a Prime Minister
:25:25. > :25:27.invoke Article 50 without For the Prime Minister to do that
:25:28. > :25:32.would involve the executive, in effect, overruling
:25:33. > :25:37.an act of Parliament. The European Communities Act is
:25:38. > :25:42.what keeps us in the European Union. By invoking Article 50,
:25:43. > :25:45.in effect, the Prime Minister is saying, actually,
:25:46. > :25:49.no longer will this act have force. That is quite a proposition,
:25:50. > :25:53.for the executive to So, I think there are profound
:25:54. > :25:58.constitutional and public law The courts may be asked
:25:59. > :26:04.to give a view on this. The current Prime Minister today
:26:05. > :26:06.didn't. The issue for triggering Article 50,
:26:07. > :26:10.the decision will be for the next Prime Minister and the next Cabinet
:26:11. > :26:12.and the arrangements they put Given that the Commons and Lords
:26:13. > :26:18.are both pro-Remain, passing a vote may prove a hurdle in itself,
:26:19. > :26:21.especially if MPs think the plans for Brexit are not
:26:22. > :26:27.what voters expect. The second issue here is legitimacy,
:26:28. > :26:30.or how do you get a democratic mandate for the deal
:26:31. > :26:34.we eventually negotiate? A lot of people voted
:26:35. > :26:37.Leave because they want If we get a deal like Norway's,
:26:38. > :26:43.we'll get good access to the single market at the cost of not really
:26:44. > :26:47.controlling EU immigration. So how do you get a new mandate
:26:48. > :26:50.to negotiate that? Some people are discussing a second
:26:51. > :26:53.referendum, perhaps Others, a snap general election
:26:54. > :27:00.in the next few months. If there were an election,
:27:01. > :27:03.the new Prime Minister could include principles of negotiation
:27:04. > :27:06.in their platform, other parties might stand on staying in,
:27:07. > :27:09.but still, there's room for voters There's a problem with securing
:27:10. > :27:15.a democratic mandate Basically you're choosing
:27:16. > :27:21.between seeking a democratic mandate before you start negotiating,
:27:22. > :27:25.before you invoke Article 50, at which point we can't possibly
:27:26. > :27:29.know what the deal is going to be. Or at the end of the process,
:27:30. > :27:32.when time is running out, and you may be choosing
:27:33. > :27:35.between what is a not very attractive deal
:27:36. > :27:38.to leave or no deal at all. Some people have put forward
:27:39. > :27:41.scenarios where the Article 50 declaration is delayed
:27:42. > :27:43.or never comes. It's important to remember a third
:27:44. > :27:46.moving part - the economy. The Treasury will get quite worried
:27:47. > :27:49.if there are long delays, because delays mean uncertainty,
:27:50. > :27:53.uncertainty about our future trading Uncertainty about our immigration
:27:54. > :27:59.policy and all of that will depress business activity and investment
:28:00. > :28:03.in the UK from abroad in particular. There are other moving
:28:04. > :28:07.parts, like devolution. The other legislatures
:28:08. > :28:10.cannot block Brexit, but problems in the peace process
:28:11. > :28:14.will need addressing. So will an appetite for
:28:15. > :28:18.Scottish independence. Article 50, the mandate and
:28:19. > :28:26.the economy will determine a lot. Well, earlier I spoke
:28:27. > :28:28.to Chris Grayling. I began by asking him
:28:29. > :28:47.whether all models of being outside think we have a number of priorities
:28:48. > :28:50.as we going to negotiation. Clearly, we want the best possible deal for
:28:51. > :28:55.the United Kingdom in terms of trade. I think that is common sense
:28:56. > :28:59.because we are the biggest customer of the European Union, 16% of
:29:00. > :29:04.exports, it is in their interest they keep access to our market.
:29:05. > :29:08.Clearly we got a mandate from the people last week to set limits on
:29:09. > :29:11.the amount of people that come to live and work in the United Kingdom.
:29:12. > :29:15.Above all, this was a close result so we have to be certain as we going
:29:16. > :29:19.to negotiation, we are mindful of the fact that people expect us to
:29:20. > :29:22.stay an outward facing, internationalist country and we want
:29:23. > :29:25.to be good friends and neighbours of the European Union, even though
:29:26. > :29:30.we're not going to be part of what they are doing. I tell you why I
:29:31. > :29:33.ask, Boris Johnson, his piece in the Telegraph, he talked about how
:29:34. > :29:38.British people will still be able to go and work in the EU, to live, to
:29:39. > :29:43.travel, to study, to buy homes and settle down. That sounded like he
:29:44. > :29:48.was potentially embracing a model that might allow free movement,
:29:49. > :29:51.isn't it? Isn't that what he's saying? The key point is the ability
:29:52. > :29:55.to control. We are not in the business of saying to people, you
:29:56. > :29:58.cannot move around the world, you cannot come to United Kingdom to
:29:59. > :30:03.work, you cannot come here if you have got a job. One of the things we
:30:04. > :30:06.shouldn't have a 77,000 people a year from within the European Union
:30:07. > :30:17.turning up in the United Kingdom just to look for a job. Even the
:30:18. > :30:20.Prime Minister in the past has said that shouldn't happen. That is one
:30:21. > :30:22.of the things we should be looking at as we go through this process. I
:30:23. > :30:26.think it is really important, given the fact it is a close result, given
:30:27. > :30:28.the fact that we all don't want to become Little Britain, we want to be
:30:29. > :30:31.doing new deals around the world, we don't want to be part of a European
:30:32. > :30:37.integrationist project, but we want to be good friends and neighbours.
:30:38. > :30:41.If MPs believe the Norway option, which means you out of the EU, you
:30:42. > :30:48.are in the single market, but you do have free movement of European
:30:49. > :30:51.citizens, is that illegitimate? I MPs not allowed to vote for that or
:30:52. > :30:56.ask the government to vote for that? Is it somehow out of bounds?
:30:57. > :31:00.Parliament is ultimately sovereign. The clear message from all sides of
:31:01. > :31:05.the Commons this afternoon, as we discuss the issues that arise from
:31:06. > :31:08.us visit's referendum result, is that we have clear instructions from
:31:09. > :31:12.the British people. They have given us a message that say we want to be
:31:13. > :31:16.outside the European Union, we don't want to be little Britain, but we do
:31:17. > :31:24.want the ability to set controls on the not people that come in. I'm
:31:25. > :31:27.just trying to work out, trying to work out a membership of the single
:31:28. > :31:32.market is still on the table all whether that is now being ruled out?
:31:33. > :31:35.As I say, membership of the single market is a phrase, what is the
:31:36. > :31:40.objective, what has the plan been, what will it be now? It is to do
:31:41. > :31:43.what is in the best interests of the United Kingdom. That is to ensure
:31:44. > :31:47.that our businesses can continue selling goods and services in the
:31:48. > :31:56.European Union and vice versa. Whatever you call it, that is the
:31:57. > :31:59.important thing. We have heard from the German CBI, they want us to
:32:00. > :32:03.carry on trading normally, it is in all of our interests that should
:32:04. > :32:09.happen. The other day, Daniel Hannon drew a distinction between free
:32:10. > :32:13.movement of people and labour. Is that something you would agree with?
:32:14. > :32:18.There were clear messages to Government about the approach they
:32:19. > :32:21.want us to take, they want us to leave the European Union, they want
:32:22. > :32:25.controls over immigration, they want to negotiate trade deals around the
:32:26. > :32:29.world. These are the messages we got from the referendum. The Government
:32:30. > :32:32.needs to sit down in a careful, methodical way, planning how we do
:32:33. > :32:36.that and how we get the best agreements with our partners for the
:32:37. > :32:39.future. Boris Johnson says we will still be able to work, travel and
:32:40. > :32:42.live in the rest of the EU, even though he doesn't say they will be
:32:43. > :32:46.allowed to do that here. Would it not have been better if we had
:32:47. > :32:49.actually had... If you like, we had nailed down a core vision of what
:32:50. > :32:55.the outlook would look like? When you take the travel issue, I would
:32:56. > :33:00.expect little to be able to travel normally, as they do now, take
:33:01. > :33:04.holidays like they do. He said to live, to work, travel, study, by
:33:05. > :33:08.homes and settle down? These are things you can do around the world,
:33:09. > :33:11.not just in the European Union. It is normal for people to be up to
:33:12. > :33:14.move around sensibly, if they can sort themselves out in terms of
:33:15. > :33:19.money, if they want to go where they want to go on holiday, it happens
:33:20. > :33:29.all over the world. Hilux going to be supporting Boris Johnson as
:33:30. > :33:33.leader? Yourself, maybe? I am not putting my hat into the ring, I am
:33:34. > :33:37.not making clear what I will do as part of a leadership campaign.
:33:38. > :33:40.If you earn your living in the City, it was another exhilarating day.
:33:41. > :33:46.Our business editor, Helen Thomas, is with me.
:33:47. > :33:52.It was another really ugly day in the markets. The pound dropped
:33:53. > :33:59.again, down to its lowest level since 1985. In the stock markets,
:34:00. > :34:04.the FTSE 100 is flaring up quite well. It is really the FTSE 250,
:34:05. > :34:10.where the damage has been done. It is more reflective of the UK
:34:11. > :34:14.economy. It is now down 15%. That is since the referendum. Late in the
:34:15. > :34:19.day, another blow, Standard Poor's, the credit rating agency,
:34:20. > :34:26.downgraded the UK, stripped us of the triple a rating. That badges the
:34:27. > :34:30.gold standard, we have had it since 1978. We clung onto it, all the way
:34:31. > :34:35.through the financial crisis and now it has gone. How significant is
:34:36. > :34:41.that? You can think of a credit rating of the indication of the
:34:42. > :34:44.likelihood of default. Lower rating means higher borrowing costs,
:34:45. > :34:47.sometimes. Nobody thinks the UK Government is going to default on
:34:48. > :34:51.its debts, borrowing costs have fallen in recent days. But you can
:34:52. > :34:57.also think about the credit rating as an indication of how attractive a
:34:58. > :35:01.place is to invest. In that contest, that context, it is pretty damning.
:35:02. > :35:08.It talks about reassessing the institutional framework of the UK,
:35:09. > :35:12.that a polite way of saying it is falling apart at the seams. It is
:35:13. > :35:15.pretty gloomy on the outlook confidence for growth. They think
:35:16. > :35:19.our membership of the European Union helped the standing of the pound,
:35:20. > :35:23.helped enhance London's position as a financial centre and helped
:35:24. > :35:26.attract investment. The risk is, in their view, it starts to unravel.
:35:27. > :35:28.If we in Britain are confused about exactly what we want
:35:29. > :35:30.in the Article 50 world, it's not impossible
:35:31. > :35:36.There are 27 other members who have to agree on a line.
:35:37. > :35:38.Our diplomatic editor, Mark Urban, has been on the continent
:35:39. > :35:41.since the referendum trying to find out where the debate
:35:42. > :35:46.It's Monday, so it must be Berlin, where the big beasts of the EU
:35:47. > :35:59.Since I started this, one thing has become very clear, there are a lot
:36:00. > :36:04.of people, institutions, countries, that have a lot of grudges against
:36:05. > :36:08.Britain due to all sorts of past battles, the Cameron package that
:36:09. > :36:10.was negotiated earlier this year, all sorts of reasons. They are
:36:11. > :36:15.delighted that Britain is leaving and they are effectively saying, can
:36:16. > :36:18.we help you with your bags? That includes Jean-Claude Juncker, the
:36:19. > :36:21.head of the European Parliament, and we have had statements from the
:36:22. > :36:26.leaders of France, Italy and Belgium, which I think you could
:36:27. > :36:29.also put in that category. What has been less evident, what I was
:36:30. > :36:33.expecting to see, was the emergence of a more understanding camp, some
:36:34. > :36:38.helpful remarks from the leader of Poland today, but apart from that we
:36:39. > :36:42.haven't really seen that emerge. Of course, not all EU members are
:36:43. > :36:46.created equal, whether it is one almighty powerful one at the centre
:36:47. > :36:51.of the alliance, now defining the policy of the 27, Germany. It is
:36:52. > :36:52.quite clear from interventions they have already made, they are going to
:36:53. > :37:02.be key players in this. The annual German-French
:37:03. > :37:04.People's Festival has been It started when Europe's
:37:05. > :37:11.old adversaries were becoming friends and a Franco-German engine,
:37:12. > :37:18.or partnership, powered the EU. But, these days, the French troops
:37:19. > :37:21.are long gone from Berlin and that alliance doesn't seem
:37:22. > :37:25.quite so equal, either. And Germans also are taking
:37:26. > :37:38.potshots at the EU. Arno owns this stall,
:37:39. > :37:41.and he is quite a Eurosceptic. He wants the Deutschmark back
:37:42. > :37:44.and urges his leader not to be too But in the rest of Germany,
:37:45. > :38:22.there are other ideas about how best Many of those around
:38:23. > :38:34.Chancellor Merkel reject leniency, arguing if Britain is leaving,
:38:35. > :38:37.it needs to say what it wants From outside to Britain,
:38:38. > :38:41.you see a Prime Minister who wants You see potential candidates
:38:42. > :38:45.for a succession of him. They also say they don't want to,
:38:46. > :38:50.they hesitate concerning that thing. The parliament is saying nothing
:38:51. > :38:52.on that, therefore we are At this architect's office
:38:53. > :39:05.in Berlin, they'd like a plan, too. It's a German outpost
:39:06. > :39:07.of a British firm and, already, they are worried about potential
:39:08. > :39:10.clients having their confidence undermined and the effect
:39:11. > :39:12.on their mixed German They won't make it easy for Britain
:39:13. > :39:17.to negotiate deals. I think the companies
:39:18. > :39:19.will somehow take a hit, like we will take
:39:20. > :39:23.the hit and carry on. It's just a shame, basically,
:39:24. > :39:28.to make it also difficult. I'm not talking about the business
:39:29. > :39:33.relationships here, talking about personal
:39:34. > :39:35.relationships as well. Especially if, like every
:39:36. > :39:37.company that has branches abroad, there is a lot
:39:38. > :39:41.of personal lives involved. As for Germany's continued exports
:39:42. > :39:48.to Britain, the prediction of economic experts here
:39:49. > :39:51.is of a slight drop, The real crux of coming negotiations
:39:52. > :39:58.will be political and nobody expects The UK is in a very bad
:39:59. > :40:06.bargaining position. The only thing it can do now is,
:40:07. > :40:12.we are going to postpone the process, and therefore impose
:40:13. > :40:15.so much pain on ourselves that you That is a very destructive process,
:40:16. > :40:21.and, ultimately, the UK will have to pay the price for keeping some
:40:22. > :40:24.relationship to the euro area So, I doubt it will get
:40:25. > :40:35.a very favourable deal. When it came to how and when those
:40:36. > :40:40.negotiations might start, it was to Berlin that the French
:40:41. > :40:44.and Italian leaders came today. President Hollande gave the distinct
:40:45. > :40:46.impression that Britain couldn't be TRANSLATION: Nothing
:40:47. > :40:55.is worse than uncertainty. Uncertainty gets in the way
:40:56. > :40:57.of political decisions. It also gets in the way
:40:58. > :41:04.of financial decisions. Matteo Renzi says anything less
:41:05. > :41:06.than a speedy Brexit would be Britain shouldn't be bounced out,
:41:07. > :41:14.and will choose its own TRANSLATION: We agree that Article
:41:15. > :41:20.50 of the European treaties The member state wanting to leave
:41:21. > :41:33.the European Union has to apply to the European Council and,
:41:34. > :41:35.before this application, So, they departed, having set
:41:36. > :41:41.the stage for tomorrow's The Merkel view, for the time being,
:41:42. > :41:50.is holding that Britain should be allowed time to change its mind
:41:51. > :41:54.before it invokes Article 50. But once that happens,
:41:55. > :41:58.the real challenge for the Germans will be whether the other allies
:41:59. > :42:01.agree to the sort of terms they would want to give Britain
:42:02. > :42:05.on the outside. Within the market is a harmonised
:42:06. > :42:08.market, with the four liberties, you can move your money as you want,
:42:09. > :42:14.you can move goods where you want, you can do services where you want
:42:15. > :42:17.and you have the free movement Taking some things out
:42:18. > :42:23.of the single market, only to keep Britain in the single
:42:24. > :42:25.market, I think this At the German-French festival
:42:26. > :42:39.on Berlin's outskirts... An entertainer belts out
:42:40. > :42:48.the hits from yesteryear. The old refrains about the benefits
:42:49. > :42:50.of EU membership were wearing But the latest polling suggests few
:42:51. > :42:55.Germans want to walks Instead, Chancellor Merkel has
:42:56. > :43:02.public support to get the UK's divorce over with as quickly
:43:03. > :43:04.and cleanly as possible, as Germany, increasingly,
:43:05. > :43:05.sets the tone for Back on Thursday night,
:43:06. > :43:15.results night, the first declaration came from Gibraltar
:43:16. > :43:18.and it was the Remain side's best Gibraltarians worry that Brexit
:43:19. > :43:24.might upset the delicate relationship they have with Spain,
:43:25. > :43:27.which lost the territory in 1704 and would rather
:43:28. > :43:30.like to have it back. Gabriel Gatehouse has been talking
:43:31. > :43:33.to the Chief Minister of Gibraltar, including on one idea,
:43:34. > :43:39.that parts of the EU might stay in the EU,
:43:40. > :43:44.while other parts leave. If there is one part
:43:45. > :43:47.of the UK that definitely, definitely doesn't want to leave
:43:48. > :43:53.the European Union, it is this. Less than ten miles from the coast
:43:54. > :43:55.of North Africa, Gibraltar voted There are 30,000 people living
:43:56. > :44:02.on the Rock, only 823 of them said Gibraltar is more pro-European
:44:03. > :44:13.than anywhere in Britain. Newsnight has learned that
:44:14. > :44:16.Gibraltar's government is working on a plan to stay in the union,
:44:17. > :44:20.and it's looking for allies. In his first broadcast interview
:44:21. > :44:22.since the referendum, the territory's Chief Minister told
:44:23. > :44:25.us he was talking to Scotland's Nicola Sturgeon
:44:26. > :44:30.about various options. Well, there are potential
:44:31. > :44:33.different formulas out there. This is like a kaleidoscope that has
:44:34. > :44:35.not yet settled. One of them may be the formula that
:44:36. > :44:38.Denmark used in the 1970s before the Lisbon Treaty and before Article
:44:39. > :44:42.50 was even invented, to simply strip out a part
:44:43. > :44:44.of the territory that doesn't want to stay part
:44:45. > :44:47.of the European Union. The member state is still defined
:44:48. > :44:50.as Denmark, but it no I can imagine a situation where some
:44:51. > :44:55.parts of what is today the member state United Kingdom are stripped
:44:56. > :44:59.out and others remain. That means that we don't have
:45:00. > :45:01.to apply again for access, we simply remain with the access
:45:02. > :45:04.that we have today and those parts that leave are then given
:45:05. > :45:07.a different sort of access, which is negotiated,
:45:08. > :45:10.but not necessarily under The governments of Gibraltar
:45:11. > :45:14.and Scotland may share a desire to stay in the EU,
:45:15. > :45:17.but on the subject The SNP wants independence,
:45:18. > :45:21.Gibraltarians almost without exception want
:45:22. > :45:24.to remain part of Britain. Immediately after the referendum,
:45:25. > :45:27.Spain raised the issue The Spanish flag on the Rock
:45:28. > :45:33.is closer than it was before, Now, that is absolute anathema
:45:34. > :45:40.to almost everyone here. London has reiterated its commitment
:45:41. > :45:44.to Gibraltar, but the Foreign Secretary said that the territory's
:45:45. > :45:47.interests will be harder to protect Anybody that thinks this is a time
:45:48. > :45:56.to propose joint sovereignty or they are going to get any
:45:57. > :45:59.millimetre of advantage in respect to the sovereignty of Gibraltar
:46:00. > :46:02.is completely wrong. 10,000 Spanish workers cross
:46:03. > :46:07.into Gibraltar every day. They and the Gibraltarians have
:46:08. > :46:10.been reassured nothing But the reality is that,
:46:11. > :46:16.at the moment, no-one really knows how Brexit will play
:46:17. > :46:25.itself out here. Earlier, I spoke to Kristalina
:46:26. > :46:27.Georgieva, the vice president of the European Commission,
:46:28. > :46:30.the executive body of the EU. I began by asking her
:46:31. > :46:33.whether she regretted the UK wasn't offered an emergency brake on free
:46:34. > :46:36.movement, In the discussions that have taken
:46:37. > :46:44.place, every effort has been made by the Commission to offer a deal
:46:45. > :46:49.that is fair for the United Kingdom and for the rest
:46:50. > :46:53.of the European Union. At that process, we thought we'd got
:46:54. > :46:59.to a point when the Prime Minister of UK had something good to offer
:47:00. > :47:03.to its people. But my impression is that
:47:04. > :47:10.during the debates around Brexit, this deal disappeared,
:47:11. > :47:13.nobody talked about it. The issues that have been discussed
:47:14. > :47:16.actually had nothing to do The 27 members, the Commission,
:47:17. > :47:23.you guys, do you think you will now look into your souls and say -
:47:24. > :47:26.we need to listen more? And we need to take account
:47:27. > :47:34.of the scepticism that is running not just in the UK but across
:47:35. > :47:37.other countries too? We are facing an existential
:47:38. > :47:40.challenge as a union. We ought to make it possible
:47:41. > :47:45.for those of us, that want to and have to integrate
:47:46. > :47:50.further to do it and for those who want to be losing
:47:51. > :47:55.union to also do it. This is not at all easy,
:47:56. > :47:58.but with or without Brexit, this Of course, we need to continue
:47:59. > :48:04.to look into the mirror and ask ourselves, what is it that we can
:48:05. > :48:07.do better for Europe How long do you think these
:48:08. > :48:16.negotiations, the divorce negotiation, how long
:48:17. > :48:19.is this going to take - In the end of these two years,
:48:20. > :48:28.one of two things will happen - either negotiations are completed
:48:29. > :48:30.and then there is a new relation or there may be a need
:48:31. > :48:38.for prolongation, but for that, there has to be unanimity among
:48:39. > :48:42.the heads of government of the European Union,
:48:43. > :48:47.the 27 and of course, the UK. We only can, at this point of time,
:48:48. > :48:56.wait for the clock to start ticking and then, roll our sleeves and work
:48:57. > :49:04.together for the best possible outcome we can get
:49:05. > :49:07.under the circumstances. No punishment, no trying to hurt
:49:08. > :49:10.the UK in order to teach We are witnessing such a turmoil
:49:11. > :49:17.at the moment that the least we can do is just to keep calm
:49:18. > :49:21.and try to resolve a very difficult problem for
:49:22. > :49:27.the benefit of all our people. The wish of all of us
:49:28. > :49:30.is that we bring a resolution that is as positive as it can be
:49:31. > :49:40.under very difficult circumstances. The Polish Foreign Minister,
:49:41. > :49:43.whose name I'm not going to try to pronounce, has blamed
:49:44. > :49:46.the commission for a lot going wrong and said,
:49:47. > :49:50.you know, this is a crisis He wants to downgrade
:49:51. > :49:56.the Commission. I think he's suggested that
:49:57. > :49:58.Jean-Claude Juncker should resign as a result of everything
:49:59. > :50:02.that has happened. Do you have some sympathy
:50:03. > :50:05.with his analysis? You know, my sympathy is with us
:50:06. > :50:08.all of us, we are facing a very The financial markets are telling us
:50:09. > :50:15.that they're very nervous around I think last we need is more turmoil
:50:16. > :50:24.and more finger pointing. It would be healthiest
:50:25. > :50:27.if we are to concentrate on the universe of problems we have
:50:28. > :50:31.to solve and work together Let's reflect on where we are his
:50:32. > :50:41.evening, at 11.20pm. I'm joined by Zoe Williams
:50:42. > :50:56.of the Guardian and Tom Newton-Dunn, Can Jeremy Corbyn survive? You say
:50:57. > :51:00.that like we rehearsed it (! ) It depends what you mean by "survive".
:51:01. > :51:04.I don't think he's going to go quietly. I don't think he will
:51:05. > :51:09.submit to the vote of no confidence. I don't think he will allow a new
:51:10. > :51:12.leadership election without his name on the ticket. But do I think he's
:51:13. > :51:17.going to end up victorious in the long run? No, I don't. Is this a
:51:18. > :51:21.fight to the death of the Labour Party, then, Tom, is that what the
:51:22. > :51:24.plan is, they're each going to go on wrestling into the mud? It's a rock
:51:25. > :51:28.and a very hard place coming together. It's incredibly hard to
:51:29. > :51:34.see how on earth anyone can win all this. There has to be a final death
:51:35. > :51:43.of one or the other. There are candidates who could be unity
:51:44. > :51:46.candidates? That is a classic suggestion, this person who never
:51:47. > :51:50.upsets anybody, she's a good candidate. You cannot have, you
:51:51. > :51:58.know, what the people who voted for Jeremy Corbyn want is a Pablo
:51:59. > :52:00.Iglesias, they want a left-wing, big ideas, new model person. I
:52:01. > :52:04.completely understand and support that. I don't think Jeremy Corbyn
:52:05. > :52:08.has been it. But I do not think what we're looking at is the rock and the
:52:09. > :52:11.hard place. We're not looking at Blairites versus the far left any
:52:12. > :52:16.more. We're looking at a huge number of people who the Corbyn camp would
:52:17. > :52:20.say don't even have skin in the game because they're not Blairites.
:52:21. > :52:24.They're not labourites either. They're from all over the place. Who
:52:25. > :52:29.is your candidate, who do you want? You have to have a Plan B before you
:52:30. > :52:36.reject Plan A. You know I hate committing but I would be delighted
:52:37. > :52:40.to see Lisa Nandy standing. I would be delighted for Starmer tarp to
:52:41. > :52:52.stand. Is there a -- Keir Starmer standing. Who else is there? Dan
:52:53. > :52:55.Jarvis, Chukka. I don't think you're talking about moderates. Who would
:52:56. > :52:59.you call that lot then? The whole conception of what moderation is has
:53:00. > :53:02.changed so much that people who previously would have been seen as
:53:03. > :53:06.on the right of the party or on the nothing of the party, Dan Jarvis is
:53:07. > :53:10.on the nothing of the party. On the subject of moderates, there has been
:53:11. > :53:17.chatter about hey, why don't the right of the Labour Party and the
:53:18. > :53:20.left of the Conservative Party they're all Remainors, why not get
:53:21. > :53:25.together and create a new force in the centre. It's a wonderful idea.
:53:26. > :53:30.We have this debate once every two years in politics. We had the purple
:53:31. > :53:36.party, blues and yellows come together. A grand coalition. Why
:53:37. > :53:39.does it not happen? Two reasons: One, the SDP, everybody remembers
:53:40. > :53:46.what happens to them. I actually don't. Older people like us do. Two,
:53:47. > :53:50.there is no base. Activists are generally on one side, the Tory
:53:51. > :53:55.activists are quite right-wing, Labour activists more left-wing.
:53:56. > :54:00.No-one's in the middle to go out, deliver your leverlets. You don't
:54:01. > :54:04.need to deliver leaflets now. You need a bit of that. Here's the
:54:05. > :54:07.thing, I don't think we're talking about the left of the Tories and the
:54:08. > :54:11.right of the Labour here. When you talk about people who wanted to
:54:12. > :54:16.Remain it's not a left-right issue. It's a huge question and many of us
:54:17. > :54:19.are devastated by the result. We're devastated not from a left-wing
:54:20. > :54:23.point of view from a sheer vandalism point of view. You could create an
:54:24. > :54:33.alliance of people who felt that this was an incredibly vandalistic
:54:34. > :54:38.act. So elect us and we stay in the EU. You get over the EU thing, at
:54:39. > :54:42.some point we get over the EU thing and then you have left, right,
:54:43. > :54:45.austerity versus spending. You're speaking as though this would be a
:54:46. > :54:50.disaster because it would be chaotic. Look what we're in now - we
:54:51. > :54:53.don't have a Prime Minister or a leader of the Opposition. Could
:54:54. > :54:58.Labour campaign and say, let's stay in? Is that plausible? I think it's
:54:59. > :55:04.extremely dangerous. Clearly it's plausible. You get on extremely well
:55:05. > :55:10.with Zoe and others, they risk doing a Scotland - And you lose them all.
:55:11. > :55:14.We have 40 seconds on the Conservative party. Can they be, can
:55:15. > :55:20.they heal this more easily than Labour's problems? The obvious route
:55:21. > :55:24.for them to heal it, I cannot see what, how they would make it work if
:55:25. > :55:29.they elect Theresa May because Boris is such a divisive and toxic figure
:55:30. > :55:33.- I don't see how they make it work. They have a spurt of energy. It will
:55:34. > :55:37.be bitter and bloody, they will because of power. They love power.
:55:38. > :55:41.Ministers want to be ministers and that's going to be enough to get
:55:42. > :55:44.them to shut up eventually. They're always in power, they're just only
:55:45. > :55:47.sometimes in office. That's philosophical. To be continued.
:55:48. > :56:00.That's all we have time for. I'm back in the chair tomorrow, until
:56:01. > :56:05.then, have a very good night. It's hard to believe we're entering
:56:06. > :56:09.into the final few days of June with no sign of any significant settled
:56:10. > :56:13.summer-like weather, in fact plenty of rain to come across the bulk of
:56:14. > :56:14.the country over the next few days, the heaviest is