:00:00. > :00:07.Question - what do we want from Brexit?
:00:08. > :00:23.We'll ask how realistic our aims and ambitions are.
:00:24. > :00:26.We'll hear from Brussels, and an exclusive interview
:00:27. > :00:28.with the French finance minister who offers a little
:00:29. > :00:47.Meanwhile, at Westminster, the Labour Party drama continues.
:00:48. > :00:55.Might be in my party's interest for him to sit there. It is not in the
:00:56. > :00:58.national interest. For heaven's sake, go. What about Europe? Where
:00:59. > :01:01.were you when we needed you? We've been talking
:01:02. > :01:02.to the grassroots. This is a coup, not only
:01:03. > :01:05.long planned but a coup against the values that
:01:06. > :01:07.Jeremy Corbyn has expressed so well It is a coup against the Labour
:01:08. > :01:12.Party membership. And leave or remain -
:01:13. > :01:24.what's Scotland thinking About the UK these days? I've
:01:25. > :01:29.switched sides, and I have decided to vote Yes to independence from the
:01:30. > :01:30.United Kingdom in another referendum. I know a lot of my
:01:31. > :01:33.friends have also swapped sides. The referendum reaction phase
:01:34. > :01:38.is over, the thinking phase is now underway as to what Brexit
:01:39. > :01:41.is really going to mean. Thinking caps - and berets -
:01:42. > :01:44.on. And the issue around
:01:45. > :01:46.which all revolves is this - Can we get decent access
:01:47. > :01:53.to the single market without also having to accept full freedom
:01:54. > :01:55.of movement, which the voters It's the big issue in the EU
:01:56. > :02:02.negotiation, and in the Tory Party We'll have more on the Tory
:02:03. > :02:05.leadership shortly. The Europeans are pretty keen
:02:06. > :02:11.to play hardball in defence of free movement, but is it credible
:02:12. > :02:14.for them to resist British requests for a brake on migration,
:02:15. > :02:16.when many of their own citizens Gabriel Gatehouse is in Paris today
:02:17. > :02:21.for us, and he sat down for an exclusive interview
:02:22. > :02:25.with the French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, who gave a first chink
:02:26. > :02:40.of a sign that there may Your President, Francois Hollande,
:02:41. > :03:03.has said the United Kingdom should leave quickly. How quickly?
:03:04. > :03:10.Would freedom of movement be a red line, non-negotiable? Some people
:03:11. > :03:11.have suggested it would, for Britain's access to the single
:03:12. > :03:47.market? If I understand you correctly,
:03:48. > :03:50.premium of movement is negotiable? Everything is negotiable? --
:03:51. > :04:30.freedom. Who should be in charge of the
:04:31. > :04:32.negotiations on the European Union side? Is it the commission for the
:04:33. > :04:47.European Council? I ask, because I imagine the
:04:48. > :04:50.Council, representing as it does the member states, some of whom also
:04:51. > :04:54.have their own issues with freedom of movement, might be more inclined
:04:55. > :05:01.to give a bit on that in negotiations than the commission?
:05:02. > :05:08.Many people are saying nothing will change for at least two years, until
:05:09. > :05:16.the coupling is complete, if you like. But, in financial areas, do
:05:17. > :05:21.you expect changes to begin earlier than that? Do you envisage some
:05:22. > :06:06.French banks, perhaps, moving their operations out of London to Paris?
:06:07. > :06:14.Are you surprised that the level of planning for this on the British
:06:15. > :06:42.side, or lack thereof? And the leaders of the Leave camp
:06:43. > :06:52.are likely to be the leaders of the country soon.
:06:53. > :07:02.I want to ask you about the nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point. I know
:07:03. > :07:04.there is a final decision expected in September. Does Brexiter change
:07:05. > :07:37.your calculation is? Let me put the question this way, do
:07:38. > :08:01.you think it is less likely now to be agreed?
:08:02. > :08:06.In other words, it's too early to say? Yes. Minister, thank you very
:08:07. > :08:12.much. It sounds as though Michel Sapin
:08:13. > :08:14.is breaking with the European line by suggesting that freedom
:08:15. > :08:18.of movement could be negotiable, although there are nuances
:08:19. > :08:21.in all this that don't Our diplomatic editor Mark Urban
:08:22. > :08:26.is in Brussels where the leaders of the 27 other EU members sat down
:08:27. > :08:38.without David Cameron Mark, what did you make of that line
:08:39. > :08:43.from the French finance minister, that everything is on the table?
:08:44. > :08:47.Well, fascinating. The truth is that we have to confess this to the
:08:48. > :08:51.viewer, we are in such an unprecedented situation that it is
:08:52. > :08:53.quite hard to calibrate Smoggie statements and some of these
:08:54. > :09:00.positions. If you take the harsh words from the 27 leaders here today
:09:01. > :09:04.at face value, what Michel Sapin is saying is that we haven't received
:09:05. > :09:08.the British ideas yet and, until we do, everything is on the table. You
:09:09. > :09:12.could read it that way, nothing more than that. I think if you voted
:09:13. > :09:17.Leave in the referendum, you could also take some comfort from the fact
:09:18. > :09:20.that he was willing to go on to that area of freedom of movement and
:09:21. > :09:24.there did seem to be something that he was willing to talk about in
:09:25. > :09:29.broad terms, even if it is not part of the so-called Norwegian model or
:09:30. > :09:33.a specific template. I think it is a fascinating thing that the EU has
:09:34. > :09:37.used such harsh language today with Britain, really to try to get out
:09:38. > :09:44.the meaning of what was said and the degree to which it was meant. I met
:09:45. > :09:47.earlier with the Swedish Prime Minister, to ask him if there was an
:09:48. > :09:50.element in this really trying to Britain.
:09:51. > :09:52.I don't hear that kind of discussion, and I would
:09:53. > :09:55.like to underline that Great Britain will stay a good partner, also,
:09:56. > :10:00.And all the member states are expressing that we want a good
:10:01. > :10:03.relationship with the United Kingdom.
:10:04. > :10:07.Do you think it would be possible, though, for Britain to get a free
:10:08. > :10:10.trade package, like Norway's, but makes amendments to that?
:10:11. > :10:13.Or is it a take it or leave it offer from your point of view?
:10:14. > :10:16.Depending on exactly what you mean, but yes, you have different options.
:10:17. > :10:22.But there is no question that if you want to have the single
:10:23. > :10:25.market, if you want access to the single market,
:10:26. > :10:28.you need also to approve of the four freedoms.
:10:29. > :10:35.Freedom of movement is clearly critical there.
:10:36. > :10:38.Does that mean any deal in which the UK tried to amend
:10:39. > :10:40.or soften that and retain access to the single market?
:10:41. > :10:53.You might argue we are getting slightly mixed messages, but they
:10:54. > :10:59.have only had a few days to get their ducks in a row. One thing they
:11:00. > :11:04.are all saying is there is no negotiations until we invoke Article
:11:05. > :11:10.50. How rigidly is that line being applied? Well, let's use a military
:11:11. > :11:18.analogy, I sometimes like those. Clearly, close combat cannot begin
:11:19. > :11:22.until a new British Government has chosen one of these options, is it
:11:23. > :11:26.like Canada, Norway, something completely different? It can't start
:11:27. > :11:31.until that point. On the other hand, despite the euro flannel we have
:11:32. > :11:35.heard about there not being any negotiations before Article 50 is
:11:36. > :11:39.invoked, we have heard opening salvos in the past two days. The
:11:40. > :11:43.Prime Minister saying yesterday to the other leaders, you will have to
:11:44. > :11:48.look at this issue of free movement. The leader saying back, don't expect
:11:49. > :11:52.to two Leave cherry pick or get a Norway without free movement. Today,
:11:53. > :11:55.the opening, defining positions are being laid out. In the coming
:11:56. > :11:59.months, while Britain is choosing its new leader and the options are
:12:00. > :12:03.being refined, there will be talks between the different key European
:12:04. > :12:08.powers, the French, the Germans, the others like that, and they will come
:12:09. > :12:14.together at around the time that Britain's new Prime Minister is
:12:15. > :12:18.chosen, in Slovakia, to finesse and home down their position in
:12:19. > :12:21.anticipation of what the new British Government will choose. At that
:12:22. > :12:24.point, I think we should get much more clarity.
:12:25. > :12:26.Getting our EU negotiating stance straight is entwined with a second
:12:27. > :12:29.important decision - who will be the next Prime Minister?
:12:30. > :12:31.In effect, the process of choosing both is down
:12:32. > :12:34.to the Conservative Party, which is in full leadership election mode,
:12:35. > :12:40.Nick Watt, our political editor, is with me
:12:41. > :12:47.We have had some candidates declaring and also some hints of
:12:48. > :12:52.some tensions, perhaps, between Boris Johnson and Michael Gove? Yes,
:12:53. > :12:57.we have the fascinating leaking of an e-mail written by Michael Gove's
:12:58. > :13:01.wife, a Daily Mail columnist, suggesting not is all sweetness and
:13:02. > :13:03.light at the top of the Boris Johnson campaign. Michael Gove is
:13:04. > :13:07.co-chair of the campaign and his wife says you have to demand
:13:08. > :13:11.specific guarantees and assurances from Boris Johnson before you
:13:12. > :13:19.support. Intriguingly, Sarah Vine also wrote that you come below that
:13:20. > :13:21.husband, bring to the campaign the support and confidence of Rupert
:13:22. > :13:33.Murdoch and Paul Dacre, the daily mail editor. This is what wrote.
:13:34. > :13:43.Whoever said the era of press barons is over? This race is going to be
:13:44. > :13:46.well and truly underway with the launch of the Boris Johnson and
:13:47. > :13:50.Theresa May campaigns tomorrow, so we thought we would take a look at
:13:51. > :13:51.how the contest is going and the way it is shaping the Brexiter
:13:52. > :13:53.negotiations. Barely a week has passed
:13:54. > :13:55.since David Cameron's resignation as Prime Minister,
:13:56. > :13:58.but blink and you'll miss the start The favourite, Boris Johnson,
:13:59. > :14:02.will declare this morning, The young outsider, Stephen Crabb,
:14:03. > :14:10.well, he declared this morning. Having been brought up in a council
:14:11. > :14:14.house by a single mother, Stephen Crabb's background could not
:14:15. > :14:18.be more different to the Etonian Stephen Crabb, you are the underdog
:14:19. > :14:25.and you come from a very different background to the average
:14:26. > :14:28.Tory grandee. A bit like Margaret
:14:29. > :14:31.Thatcher in 1975. Are there any lessons
:14:32. > :14:34.for you from that campaign? I'm not afraid of being the underdog
:14:35. > :14:38.but I actually think there is space in this leadership campaign,
:14:39. > :14:43.this leadership debate, for not just a coronation,
:14:44. > :14:47.not even for a two-horse race. I think we have to get past this
:14:48. > :14:51.Boris-stop Boris dichotomy. Mindful of the fate
:14:52. > :14:53.of the last blonde to stand for the Tory leadership -
:14:54. > :14:55.Michael Heseltine - Boris Johnson kept something of
:14:56. > :14:59.a low-profile at Westminster today. But he will be out of the traps
:15:00. > :15:03.in the morning with a declaration that he offers a chance to believe
:15:04. > :15:06.in ourselves and a hope that he will be able to unite
:15:07. > :15:09.the Remainders and Leavers I am backing Boris Johnson
:15:10. > :15:15.because the people have been very clear that they want to leave
:15:16. > :15:19.the European Union. They were right to
:15:20. > :15:21.make that decision. I think they expect that process
:15:22. > :15:23.to be led by someone Boris has sent confusing signals
:15:24. > :15:30.this week over his stance on the two core issues
:15:31. > :15:33.at the heart of the referendum. Free movement of people and access
:15:34. > :15:37.to the single market. If we have to except freedom
:15:38. > :15:43.of movement, if freedom of movement was the single biggest objection
:15:44. > :15:47.to leaving the EU in the first place, we are going to lose
:15:48. > :15:50.the advantages of membership of the EU whilst not gaining
:15:51. > :15:55.necessarily very much in return. Those who supported Brexit made
:15:56. > :15:59.a number of assertions and promises which, in practice,
:16:00. > :16:02.are going to be very difficult, One grandee who is supporting
:16:03. > :16:12.Theresa May wonders whether Boris lacks that Prime
:16:13. > :16:15.Ministerial gravitas. A point illustrated in the Commons
:16:16. > :16:18.with a dig at "Borisconi". I can't imagine, it just slipped
:16:19. > :16:21.out that way. And a lot of people think that
:16:22. > :16:26.Boris Johnson has been fun but they are really,
:16:27. > :16:29.really doubtful about whether he can be trusted to be serious,
:16:30. > :16:31.to apply himself. Whereas Theresa May,
:16:32. > :16:34.I think, most definitely can. And I think also, when she walks
:16:35. > :16:38.into the room to try and undertake these negotiations, she will be
:16:39. > :16:42.treated seriously but she will be Seven years as Home Secretary
:16:43. > :16:48.and she wasn't leading Whereas, I think if Boris Johnson
:16:49. > :16:54.were to go into such a room, he would get very,
:16:55. > :16:57.very short shrift. This is the first time in British
:16:58. > :17:00.history that the grassroots membership of a political party
:17:01. > :17:03.will be deciding who our That is quite a responsibility,
:17:04. > :17:10.given that this election will be shaping the negotiations
:17:11. > :17:13.about Britain's place in Europe that will set the course of UK politics
:17:14. > :17:18.for decades to come. So far, the contest
:17:19. > :17:21.is following the usual path There is a clear frontrunner,
:17:22. > :17:30.but that does not guarantee victory. The odds are against
:17:31. > :17:32.the frontrunner but, frankly, I think we are now
:17:33. > :17:36.into such open territory that very little about history is a guide
:17:37. > :17:41.to what is going to happen. The wise candidate, who might very
:17:42. > :17:46.well get elected at the end of the day by the 150,000
:17:47. > :17:51.Conservative paid-up members, is one that is able not just
:17:52. > :17:55.to unify the Conservative Party but is going to be able to reach
:17:56. > :17:58.some form of consensus This evening, the Tories
:17:59. > :18:04.were meant to put the troubles of the referendum behind them
:18:05. > :18:07.at their annual summer party held But there are reports of trouble
:18:08. > :18:14.over the seating plan worthy If Remainers and Leavers
:18:15. > :18:21.are uncomfortable about sitting together, is there any hope
:18:22. > :18:23.the new leader can heal Joining me now is Conservative MP
:18:24. > :18:29.and Chair of the Foreign Affairs select committee Crispin Blunt -
:18:30. > :18:40.he's backing Boris. You are explaining something, you
:18:41. > :18:47.not about the negotiation because if it fails, there still in an OK
:18:48. > :18:50.situation? The committee looked at this and this report in April and I
:18:51. > :18:55.suggest people read that as it is highly likely or European partners
:18:56. > :19:00.cannot agree a strategy between themselves, if there is a qualified
:19:01. > :19:05.minority blocking any deal, those people who want to deal positively
:19:06. > :19:12.with the UK or those who want to be seen to punish us. ... Then that
:19:13. > :19:18.does not work and the European Parliament asked to approve this. If
:19:19. > :19:24.all that fails, we have two cell into the single market on the most
:19:25. > :19:31.favoured nation terms with talents of about 3%, 10% in some areas like
:19:32. > :19:38.cars. And that is not the end of the world. It is better than that.
:19:39. > :19:46.Because we then get control of immigration, we have control of free
:19:47. > :19:50.movement, we don't have to pay billions into the EU budget, we can
:19:51. > :19:59.decide where that gets spent. It gets better, we are regulating our
:20:00. > :20:07.own market. I understand, you think the backstop is... Can I ask you,
:20:08. > :20:12.what you understand why what Boris Johnson wrote in the Telegraph, this
:20:13. > :20:22.line about British people being able to work, study, travel and buy homes
:20:23. > :20:31.in the EU. What did he mean by that? I don't know. I don't know what
:20:32. > :20:39.Boris Johnson meant that. Can you see any outcome when that happens?
:20:40. > :20:45.We can restrict them... Can we live in the United States if we have the
:20:46. > :20:50.means? I cannot go and live in the United States. You can get a green
:20:51. > :20:55.card. You are supporting him, he has written this thing, which appears to
:20:56. > :21:00.imply that we. Them coming here but we will have the right to go there.
:21:01. > :21:07.He has just been in the middle of a campaign, he should know if that is
:21:08. > :21:11.achievable. Do you think so? My view is that we will have to come to some
:21:12. > :21:16.deal about how people can move between the UK and the rest of the
:21:17. > :21:19.European Union. Can you see them allowing us freedom of movement but
:21:20. > :21:24.us allowing them freedom of movement? Your candidate for Prime
:21:25. > :21:28.Minister, who was meant to be an expert on this, has just written...
:21:29. > :21:33.Failed quite certain that everybody is going to this in turn everything
:21:34. > :21:38.that he says because it is a significant campaign. ... He was
:21:39. > :21:42.paid several thousand pounds for this article and he wrote something
:21:43. > :21:47.that was reassuring about what the position would be for the British
:21:48. > :21:52.that appears to most commentators to be utterly wrong. Are you not
:21:53. > :21:58.worried? There is uncertainty all over the place amongst the
:21:59. > :22:02.candidates, certainly in the media. Let me finish this point. It is
:22:03. > :22:07.important in the national interests that we get as much certainty as
:22:08. > :22:16.possible about what the bottom line is for the UK. But if we take the
:22:17. > :22:22.bottom line, can I live, travel, study and via home in France? On
:22:23. > :22:27.your bottom line? No, if the negotiations... So how can Boris
:22:28. > :22:31.Johnson give me that reassurance? That is what he is seeking to
:22:32. > :22:35.achieve and it is obviously in the mutual interest of both the United
:22:36. > :22:41.Kingdom and our European partners that that is the case. In the same
:22:42. > :22:46.way... The same way as it is in our mutual interest at the tariff
:22:47. > :22:50.fishing, particularly with European partners, if they sell twice as many
:22:51. > :22:54.manufacturing goods to us as we sell to them, that they would want to see
:22:55. > :22:58.those tariffs reduced. Quickfire round? There are some issues, do you
:22:59. > :23:07.think immigration from non-EU countries, if your candidate wins,
:23:08. > :23:12.will go up or not? Promises were made to Asian communities that it
:23:13. > :23:19.would be easier to get relatives in. My view is that we should regulate
:23:20. > :23:23.immigration from outside the United Kingdom consistently across the
:23:24. > :23:29.piece. More or less from outside the EU? Irrigation to be the same. You
:23:30. > :23:36.are not going to answer that. This is more serious than trying to
:23:37. > :23:40.score... These are questions that have not been answered. And your
:23:41. > :23:46.candidate is gone to stand for Prime Minister. But you know perfectly
:23:47. > :23:50.well that the numbers of people coming into the United Kingdom are
:23:51. > :23:55.not necessarily, depending on what system you set up, it is going to
:23:56. > :23:59.depend on how many people come here. If you put a cap on the number of
:24:00. > :24:07.visas you will allow, that is one way of controlling it, and are you
:24:08. > :24:14.going to go by the number of... And finally, we're going to have control
:24:15. > :24:17.over this. We're going to do the important business of trying to
:24:18. > :24:20.protect British unskilled and semiskilled Labour and having to
:24:21. > :24:24.compete with people who have professional qualifications coming
:24:25. > :24:30.from central, eastern and southern Europe or anywhere else. That is why
:24:31. > :24:33.they are not allowed in. That is a very long way of saying you don't
:24:34. > :24:35.know if immigration will go up or not. We have to leave it there.
:24:36. > :24:37.Thank you very much. Well, Labour have provided more
:24:38. > :24:40.in the way of sparks this week, with a crisis that has given
:24:41. > :24:43.new life to the words There was no challenge
:24:44. > :25:03.to the Corbyn leadership today, Any news about Jeremy Corbyn? Chief
:25:04. > :25:07.Whip went in to see him this evening and he is sleeping on their
:25:08. > :25:11.conversation. This took place after the Deputy Leader said he should
:25:12. > :25:17.think about going. I spoke to an ally the sickening and this person
:25:18. > :25:20.told me that Jeremy Corbyn is in the very bad place. He said he is not a
:25:21. > :25:25.broken man but he is a good-hearted man. He cannot believe that friends
:25:26. > :25:28.have turned against him and he believes the decision by Ed Miliband
:25:29. > :25:34.to speak out against his leadership was an act of betrayal. And this
:25:35. > :25:37.person has broken to family members and the message coming from the
:25:38. > :25:42.family is, what are you doing to Jeremy Corbyn? The message coming
:25:43. > :25:48.from his allies in the Labour Party is, you have to protect the legacy.
:25:49. > :25:53.That is code for, do not resign as leader egos if you do, the left will
:25:54. > :25:57.lose control of the Labour Party. Because as soon as he goes, then
:25:58. > :26:02.there can obviously be a leadership contest, but if he is there and
:26:03. > :26:07.there is a challenge, he will be on the ballot paper. I was going to ask
:26:08. > :26:12.if there would be any challenge tomorrow? I presume not but I think
:26:13. > :26:17.we might have got one today, tomorrow? Angela Eagle is ready to
:26:18. > :26:23.go. She has got 51 signatures ready for a challenge or 36 signatures if
:26:24. > :26:27.it is not a challenge and a vacancy. As a understand it, there are people
:26:28. > :26:33.in her circle saying, do not challenge. Hold back, if you
:26:34. > :26:37.challenge, Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot paper and that will be an
:26:38. > :26:41.invitation to the momentum grassroots campaign to get on the
:26:42. > :26:42.streets and really make quite a protest for Jeremy Corbyn. Thank
:26:43. > :26:45.you. The strife in Labour has really been
:26:46. > :26:48.about who is in control of the party and, in particular,
:26:49. > :26:50.should MPs defer to MPs usually find it easier
:26:51. > :26:54.than party members to get slots on TV programmes like this,
:26:55. > :26:57.but we thought it might be more useful at this point,
:26:58. > :26:59.to hear from the grassroots, so Lewis Goodall has been sounding
:27:00. > :27:01.them out. Just a warning his piece begins
:27:02. > :27:04.with some flash photography. Last September, Jeremy Corbyn
:27:05. > :27:11.was elected with the biggest mandate Only nine months later, he faces 172
:27:12. > :27:18.of his MPs telling him to go. His opponents hope the shock Brexit
:27:19. > :27:21.result would drain his support Newsnight has spoken to 50 chairs
:27:22. > :27:33.and secretaries of local Labour Parties up and down
:27:34. > :27:35.the country who supported Of these, 45 say they would support
:27:36. > :27:39.and nominate Mr Corbyn again in the event of another
:27:40. > :27:41.leadership contest. It's fair to say they
:27:42. > :27:44.are not exactly happy Chris Williamson was an MP,
:27:45. > :28:15.but is now a party chairman in Derby The attempted coup by certain
:28:16. > :28:21.members of the Parliamentary Labour The fact is, Jeremy Corbyn
:28:22. > :28:27.was elected with an overwhelming mandate, a mandate that is
:28:28. > :28:32.unprecedented, the biggest mandate that any leader of any political
:28:33. > :28:35.party has ever achieved in history. It's very regrettable, it is a civil
:28:36. > :28:41.war that the membership Newsnight has learned that,
:28:42. > :28:44.and down the country, over the next few days,
:28:45. > :28:48.local Labour parties will be having special meetings to discuss the dire
:28:49. > :28:51.situation facing the party, like Party members are, by nature,
:28:52. > :28:58.pretty loyal to the party and I think that most of us feel
:28:59. > :29:01.quite hurt with what's We are seeing an attempted coup
:29:02. > :29:06.against Jeremy Corbyn. Furthermore, this is a coup not only
:29:07. > :29:10.long planned, but a coup against the values that
:29:11. > :29:12.Jeremy Corbyn has expressed so well I think he absolutely would win
:29:13. > :29:19.another leadership election. In the last week, 18,000 people have
:29:20. > :29:24.joined the Labour Party and 60% of them have written that the reason
:29:25. > :29:27.they were joining is to support One group that is determined to hold
:29:28. > :29:33.MPs' feet to the fire is Momentum. They are pressuring and agitating
:29:34. > :29:35.at meetings like this one, going on behind me in Camden,
:29:36. > :29:38.with Keir Starmer. They know that if they don't
:29:39. > :29:41.support Jeremy Corbyn, Indeed, one London Labour
:29:42. > :29:47.chairman told me that deselection isn't just possible
:29:48. > :29:50.for them, it's certain. They won't stop, he said,
:29:51. > :29:52.until they get the sort Tonight, Jeremy Corbyn
:29:53. > :29:59.remains defiant. But whether he wins again or loses,
:30:00. > :30:02.one thing from these The acrimony and mistrust
:30:03. > :30:05.within the party is deep. Whoever is leader, the task
:30:06. > :30:21.of rebuilding will be enormous. Lewis Goodall. More on Labour
:30:22. > :30:24.tomorrow, I expect. Economic forecasts are not very
:30:25. > :30:26.likely to be reliable, but I thought you might be
:30:27. > :30:29.interested to hear how the city economists have changed their view
:30:30. > :30:31.about economic growth over this The group Consensus Economics track
:30:32. > :30:35.all the reputable forecasts, Since the Brexit vote,
:30:36. > :30:38.the average forecast for this year's growth has been downgraded this year
:30:39. > :30:43.by half a percentage point. Next year, the growth
:30:44. > :30:48.downgraded by 1.7%. Believe the forecasts,
:30:49. > :30:56.by the end of next year, the economy will be 2.2% smaller
:30:57. > :30:59.than it would have been had And what is a loss of 2.2%
:31:00. > :31:03.of national income? Well, you remember the famous
:31:04. > :31:06.?350 million a week we were said 2.2% of national income
:31:07. > :31:10.is ?350 million every We're all trying to get our heads
:31:11. > :31:18.around the effects of Brexit. Our business editor
:31:19. > :31:32.Helen Thomas is with me. Helen, any signs of gloom, doom or
:31:33. > :31:36.buoyancy? First things first, it was a good day in the markets. The FTSE
:31:37. > :31:41.100 is actually back up above what it was before the referendum result.
:31:42. > :31:45.That is good news. The FTSE 250 and the pound also had a good day, but
:31:46. > :31:50.they are still well down on where we were last week. The economic story
:31:51. > :31:52.is still really uncertainty. In that environment, we are looking for any
:31:53. > :31:57.early indicators we can offer what is going on out there. One area is
:31:58. > :32:04.hiring and hiring intentions. We have the first look at some data
:32:05. > :32:08.from Tam Dalyell, the professional body for human resources, they have
:32:09. > :32:12.done a snap survey of their members. Here are some numbers. One thing to
:32:13. > :32:15.emphasise a very early days. This is recruitment and tension over the
:32:16. > :32:20.next five months. About 50% say it is too early to say, about 30% say
:32:21. > :32:26.no particular change. But when you go on, you have 18% saying they are
:32:27. > :32:31.less likely to hire, and then 14% talking about a recruitment freeze.
:32:32. > :32:36.Getting down to the nitty-gritty, about 9% are saying they are more
:32:37. > :32:40.likely to cut jobs. A side note on that data, it was a question where
:32:41. > :32:47.you could take more than one box, so there is doubling up in brackets.
:32:48. > :32:51.Another big picture takeaway is how unprepared businesses were for this
:32:52. > :32:57.result. Do you have a post Brexit plan? 6% have won, 26% are working
:32:58. > :33:01.on one currently, quite frantically, you might think! 54% still don't
:33:02. > :33:09.have one in place. You can see why people might be. This is obviously
:33:10. > :33:15.still before we have proper data, are there any other early signs? We
:33:16. > :33:21.should stress we are really in reading economic tea leaves
:33:22. > :33:26.territory. Nothing definitive. Springboard monitors footfall in
:33:27. > :33:30.shopping centres, high streets and retail parks. Last week, they
:33:31. > :33:34.thought it was down 5% on the year before. They say they saw a marked
:33:35. > :33:37.deterioration in the second half of the week after the referendum
:33:38. > :33:43.result, compared to the first half of the week. There are lots of
:33:44. > :33:47.reasons we go shopping or not. Football! Yes, and a big one is the
:33:48. > :33:51.weather. Springboard said they checked the weather and it is
:33:52. > :33:55.broadly similar to last year. They do think there was a deterioration
:33:56. > :34:01.after the result of the referendum. These are small, early signals,
:34:02. > :34:07.nothing definitive. As you say, until we get any hard data, it is
:34:08. > :34:10.what we got. A letter written to the Times in the wake of the referendum
:34:11. > :34:13.result suggested the United Kingdom should be renamed Poundland, as the
:34:14. > :34:15.currency is the only thing that we have in common.
:34:16. > :34:18.It may be a slight exaggeration, but it is certainly the case
:34:19. > :34:21.that there is great anxiety in Scotland about being dragged out
:34:22. > :34:24.of the EU against the wishes of the majority of its voters,
:34:25. > :34:26.and lots of talk about a second referendum on Scottish independence.
:34:27. > :34:29.So will that really happen - and is there any way
:34:30. > :34:39.Outside the Scottish Parliament, old friends gather.
:34:40. > :34:43.Veterans of the 2014 campaign for Scottish independence meet
:34:44. > :34:45.with renewed energy, the same purpose but wildly
:34:46. > :34:55.A demand that Scotland stays in the European Union.
:34:56. > :34:58.The political case for independence has never been as strong.
:34:59. > :35:01.The argument we made that it doesn't really matter what way Scotland
:35:02. > :35:03.votes in the UK, it can always be overruled,
:35:04. > :35:08.We've seen it happen in a most dramatic fashion.
:35:09. > :35:10.Many of the people I've been speaking to in this
:35:11. > :35:13.crowd voted for Scottish independence in 2014.
:35:14. > :35:16.So, in a sense, we could perhaps discount the views of this group
:35:17. > :35:19.of people that are already on the side of an
:35:20. > :35:23.The question is, how much has this trauma,
:35:24. > :35:25.this Brexit referendum, had an impact on those
:35:26. > :35:31.We need to keep pressure on people in that building behind us...
:35:32. > :35:34.According to the polls, at least, there are plenty of people
:35:35. > :35:37.who are now reassessing their opinion of independence.
:35:38. > :35:42.I voted No in the previous Scottish independence referendum.
:35:43. > :35:47.In this EU referendum, again, I voted to remain with the EU.
:35:48. > :35:50.But now, based on this outcome, I have switched sides and decided
:35:51. > :35:53.to vote to Yes to Scottish independence from the
:35:54. > :35:55.United Kingdom, should we have another referendum.
:35:56. > :36:00.And I know plenty of my friends have changed their minds as well.
:36:01. > :36:02.But while the political case may have strengthened,
:36:03. > :36:07.Since the 2014 referendum, the oil industry in Scotland has
:36:08. > :36:13.Oil prices are roughly half what they were in the Scottish
:36:14. > :36:17.The IFS puts Scotland's fiscal gap between overall spending and overall
:36:18. > :36:23.revenues at around ?10 billion a year and widening.
:36:24. > :36:26.Any future independence offer will have to be very different
:36:27. > :36:29.from that presented to the Scottish people in 2014.
:36:30. > :36:32.It will have to be ruthlessly honest and tell some hard truths.
:36:33. > :36:35.Independence will be an expensive and difficult business,
:36:36. > :36:38.but we will go into it with our eyes open, if you like.
:36:39. > :36:41.That, at least, is the kind of offer that will have to be made.
:36:42. > :36:43.That will be a very sobering experience.
:36:44. > :36:46.It may be that this will be a difficult argument to win,
:36:47. > :36:49.but it is probably the only Yes argument that could win.
:36:50. > :36:54.On the table for David Cameron yesterday, nothing save
:36:55. > :37:00.For Nicola Sturgeon today, a spread stacked with nibbles and,
:37:01. > :37:07.After all, creative rule bending is an EU artform.
:37:08. > :37:10.I think it would be very unlikely that Scotland would be recognised
:37:11. > :37:12.as a member state without having achieved independence from the rest
:37:13. > :37:16.of the United Kingdom at a domestic level.
:37:17. > :37:19.But it is an interesting question, whether the EU can adapt
:37:20. > :37:22.so as to give some sort of protection, autonomy
:37:23. > :37:27.status to the regions of a former member state.
:37:28. > :37:30.Because this isn't simply a matter of law, it's a matter
:37:31. > :37:35.Always first a question of political will, with the law to be put
:37:36. > :37:41.These are very early days, of course, but there is no sign yet
:37:42. > :37:47.The EU President Donald Tusk and member states have
:37:48. > :37:50.so far refused to meet with the Scottish First Minister
:37:51. > :37:57.There is no shortage of bits of Europe that would like to be
:37:58. > :38:00.treated as separate in EU negotiations, not least in Spain
:38:01. > :38:02.who, we were told today in a press conference,
:38:03. > :38:04.opposes any negotiation by anyone other than the Government
:38:05. > :38:10.Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy argued emphatically if the United Kingdom
:38:11. > :38:20.Nicola Sturgeon, then, didn't leave with anything concrete.
:38:21. > :38:23.I've received a lot of sympathy and a lot of good wishes today.
:38:24. > :38:27.That, of course, doesn't translate into an automatic
:38:28. > :38:32.easy path for Scotland, but it does mean I leave Brussels
:38:33. > :38:40.tonight to travel back to Edinburgh in good heart and optimistic.
:38:41. > :38:42.There are, though, some who think we could get through this
:38:43. > :38:45.constitutional crisis, if that is what it is,
:38:46. > :38:47.by MPs getting together and agreeing to ignore the people,
:38:48. > :38:51.ignore the outcome of the referendum.
:38:52. > :38:54.I'm on my way now to meet someone who is famous for framing
:38:55. > :39:00.Former Labour MP Tam Dalyell came up with the famous West
:39:01. > :39:05.As passionate today as ever about the sovereignty
:39:06. > :39:14.MPs should have the balls to use their best judgment,
:39:15. > :39:23.If their best judgment, as I understand it is the best
:39:24. > :39:27.judgment of 450 more, is that Britain should remain
:39:28. > :39:30.within the European Community, they should have the balls to say
:39:31. > :39:45.This is a matter of cowardice if they don't.
:39:46. > :39:49.The big change for Scotland from 2014 is it is a case
:39:50. > :39:51.that the country can't now be in both unions,
:39:52. > :39:56.It could simplify the politics, but end up making
:39:57. > :40:05.We've had hopes and fears in the programme today,
:40:06. > :40:07.Scotland, economics, the negotiation.
:40:08. > :40:10.Let's finish with some reflections on all that.
:40:11. > :40:13.I'm joined by the columnists Melanie Phillips, from the Times,
:40:14. > :40:18.and Jonathan Freedland from the Guardian.
:40:19. > :40:26.Melanie, you were pretty keen on Brexit, does it worry you that
:40:27. > :40:30.you're seeing potential disintegration of the UK? I would be
:40:31. > :40:33.extremely concerned about the potential disintegration of the
:40:34. > :40:36.United Kingdom. I think it is distinctly premature to worry all
:40:37. > :40:41.over again about Scotland. I think Nicola Sturgeon has been extremely
:40:42. > :40:46.wise to be cautious in her phrasing. A second referendum for independence
:40:47. > :40:50.is on the table, fine, let's have it on the table. There is no problem in
:40:51. > :40:55.that. But she is wise to be cautious for a number of reasons. First, as
:40:56. > :41:00.we can see, the EU itself is not necessarily keen to have Scotland as
:41:01. > :41:05.a member because this will open Pandora's Box again to other
:41:06. > :41:11.secessionist movements in Europe and they don't want that. Secondly, from
:41:12. > :41:14.the Scottish people's perspective themselves, nobody knows what this
:41:15. > :41:18.thing is going to look like to which they all want to continue to sign
:41:19. > :41:22.up. They don't know what Europe or the EU will look like, they don't
:41:23. > :41:27.know, we don't know what deal the EU will finally do with the United
:41:28. > :41:32.Kingdom. Can I ask, let's fly ahead ten years, if it was the case that
:41:33. > :41:37.Scotland didn't leave the UK, and everybody could see the date at
:41:38. > :41:42.which that destiny was set was devoted to Brexit, would you regret
:41:43. > :41:45.Brexit in that situation? No, I would regret very much of Scotland
:41:46. > :41:55.left the United Kingdom, they are an integral part of the United Kingdom.
:41:56. > :41:59.However, for me, national self-governance is overall. I know
:42:00. > :42:03.that you are a Remainer, Jonathan, where should the country draw the
:42:04. > :42:06.line on the balance between free movement, restricting that, and
:42:07. > :42:10.getting access to the single market? It seems to be the fundamental
:42:11. > :42:15.question we are facing. Just on the Scotland thing, if you or a patriot
:42:16. > :42:18.and are doing it for the country, a price worth paying is to break up
:42:19. > :42:23.the country seems like an odd thing to say. The balance of free
:42:24. > :42:27.movement, access to the single market seems crucial for the
:42:28. > :42:31.economy. Everybody says so. Even people on the Leave side said that.
:42:32. > :42:36.Boris Johnson's very unique brand of magical thinking, in which he
:42:37. > :42:40.famously said he is pro-cake and pro-eating it, even he was
:42:41. > :42:44.constantly saying through the campaign, of course we will be in
:42:45. > :42:49.the single market, plenty of other Leavers were as well. It is vital. I
:42:50. > :42:54.think we will be sending the economy to pen Yury if we break out of it.
:42:55. > :42:58.It's quite clear that the electorate have a problem with the free
:42:59. > :43:01.movement. Before the result, I was writing that Labour needed to change
:43:02. > :43:05.the message and say that it is something we need to look at. I
:43:06. > :43:09.think the European powers themselves, France and Germany, are
:43:10. > :43:15.also going to look at it. That might be where the action could be,
:43:16. > :43:18.actually. You would, presumably, Melanie, say that free movement is
:43:19. > :43:22.the red line and get whatever we can on single market access after that?
:43:23. > :43:28.For me, the red line is British national self-government. For that,
:43:29. > :43:31.we need to be able to determine our own immigration policy, for that we
:43:32. > :43:37.need not to have the free movement rules. That is how it works for me.
:43:38. > :43:43.I understand, obviously, there is a big problem here in respect of free
:43:44. > :43:45.movement of the one hand, against sovereignty on the other,
:43:46. > :43:51.potentially. We have already seen there is a slight frisson of a hint
:43:52. > :43:59.from the French that possibly, just possibly, it might be discussed.
:44:00. > :44:04.This is our story, and it is leading in the Daily Mail, Europe starts to
:44:05. > :44:08.crack on migrants? Yes, also, I'm not an economist, I yield to others
:44:09. > :44:12.that no much more about this than I do, but I'm listening to people that
:44:13. > :44:16.do know about the way economists worked who are saying that, you
:44:17. > :44:22.know, the free market is not the be all and end all. Sorry, the single
:44:23. > :44:25.market. You talk about, quite rightly, Boris Havering, but Michael
:44:26. > :44:29.Gove was very clear during the campaign, we come out of the EU, we
:44:30. > :44:33.come out of the single market. His view is that we can negotiate with
:44:34. > :44:38.the countries of the EU independently. Outside the single
:44:39. > :44:46.market? We heard Crispin Blunt saying... Our economy is so bound up
:44:47. > :44:50.with them, so intertwined. Our economy is unique. Nobody, but
:44:51. > :44:54.nobody knows how it will be for us because we have never been in this
:44:55. > :44:58.situation before. We are not Norway, we are not Switzerland. I want to
:44:59. > :45:03.keep moving this along. How, Jonathan, does the interaction of
:45:04. > :45:06.this with the Tory leadership contest work? We might think the
:45:07. > :45:14.leadership election is not the best way to frame a national decision
:45:15. > :45:19.about policy? It means somebody like Boris Johnson, who I think would be
:45:20. > :45:21.someone who wants to be flexible on this and negotiate something that
:45:22. > :45:31.would look a lot like Remain is having to go further and adopt a
:45:32. > :45:34.harder Leave position. Somebody like Theresa May, you would think she
:45:35. > :45:39.would be the more pragmatic, responsible figure. Partly, polling
:45:40. > :45:43.suggesting she is polling the Leave pulling ahead because she looks like
:45:44. > :45:49.a responsible adult, rather than ad-libbing it like Boris Johnson.
:45:50. > :45:53.Yet, if you want somebody who negotiates on something like LIBOR,
:45:54. > :46:01.it would be helpful to have somebody like Boris Johnson, who has been to
:46:02. > :46:07.China. It is the dilemma, we have had conversations about it. The
:46:08. > :46:10.Times, they say that in a poll, Tory activists say that Theresa May is at
:46:11. > :46:21.55%, Boris Johnson at 38%. There is a very clear mandate from
:46:22. > :46:27.the people. She could be Prime Minister and say, Boris, negotiate
:46:28. > :46:34.with the European Union? She could but you cannot have a Prime Minister
:46:35. > :46:37.who is a Remainer. This was about taking back control and the Prime
:46:38. > :46:38.Minister will be chosen by 150,000 people.
:46:39. > :46:42.A couple of big Tory beasts will declare themselves candidates
:46:43. > :46:45.for the leadership tomorrow, and maybe one in the Labour Party.
:46:46. > :47:08.Nick Watt will be live on Facebook live from the Boris launch,
:47:09. > :47:10.Wednesday's wet and windy weather leaving so was nice to