:00:00. > :00:08.Newsnight exclusively reveals data that suggests we are rewarding
:00:09. > :00:15.the wrong headteachers with the big bucks and the knighthoods.
:00:16. > :00:20.It may mean that we have to go back to step one in terms of who is
:00:21. > :00:24.running our schools. I'll be asking the Chief Inspector
:00:25. > :00:27.of Schools if he agrees. Also tonight, as Theresa May meets
:00:28. > :00:30.EU leaders, Newsnight understands that those in Whitehall advocating
:00:31. > :00:32.a softer Brexit think the door should be kept open to
:00:33. > :00:34.lower-skilled migrants to avoid And another clue about the direction
:00:35. > :00:47.of Brexit talks, perhaps, When it comes to pass porting for
:00:48. > :00:51.the financial institutions, that is something that has to be negotiated
:00:52. > :00:58.as well. But I can say something very clear. If you want to have
:00:59. > :01:00.passport in, you need to accept at least, basically, the EU regulation
:01:01. > :01:11.that we have and the financial area. I will totally accept the results of
:01:12. > :01:17.this great and historic presidential election if I win.
:01:18. > :01:21.Today, Donald Trump said something unheard of in modern American
:01:22. > :01:30.history - how big a threat is this to American democracy?
:01:31. > :01:38.The Government has long had a penchant for parachuting so-called
:01:39. > :01:43.The narrative goes like this - head teachers arrives -
:01:44. > :01:45.kicks ass - kicks all the bad eggs out -
:01:46. > :01:48.pupils and the teachers - results soar - head gets
:01:49. > :01:55.Moves to next badly performing school and so on.
:01:56. > :02:01.But Newsnight can exclusively reveal new evidence that
:02:02. > :02:02.demonstrates that this strategy is not working.
:02:03. > :02:10.Chris, a fundamental problem with the way our schools are wrong, then?
:02:11. > :02:15.Absolutely right. This research coming out from a peer-reviewed
:02:16. > :02:18.publication has looked at 411 English headteachers. What it
:02:19. > :02:23.basically find is that we pay almost twice as much to the most short
:02:24. > :02:27.termist and destructive head teachers, who just look like they
:02:28. > :02:30.are doing a good job, while there is a huge category of teachers who do
:02:31. > :02:35.brilliant jobs who basically never get knighthoods and who get paid
:02:36. > :02:39.much less. This is phenomenal research, based on data from inside
:02:40. > :02:42.schools which has never had a look at. This could be some of the most
:02:43. > :02:56.important research for social policy in recent years.
:02:57. > :03:03.We spend a lot of time and energy trying to improve schools in
:03:04. > :03:06.England. But a new piece of research published tonight in the Harvard
:03:07. > :03:11.business review and shared exclusively with Newsnight is
:03:12. > :03:15.potentially a breakthrough. It reveals we are getting some very big
:03:16. > :03:19.things wrong when it comes to what makes a good head teacher. This new
:03:20. > :03:24.research throws up into question whether we are hiring the right
:03:25. > :03:28.people to be a high headteachers and whether we are rewarding the right
:03:29. > :03:31.people to be our headteachers. It looks at things from a very
:03:32. > :03:35.different angle and it may mean that we may have to go back to step one
:03:36. > :03:42.in terms of who is running our schools. This new research uses a
:03:43. > :03:46.unique data source to work out what works. Administrative data from a
:03:47. > :03:49.big group of sample secondary academies, which analysts at the
:03:50. > :03:56.center for high performance have used to look at what headteachers
:03:57. > :04:00.actually do. We looked at 411 heads and looked at the actions that they
:04:01. > :04:06.actually take within their management information systems, how
:04:07. > :04:10.they manage staff, how they manage teachers, how they manage students.
:04:11. > :04:14.What they paid teachers, how they manage behaviour, how they recruit
:04:15. > :04:19.people, how they exclude people. What we have found is that they fall
:04:20. > :04:22.into five main categories. There are three of those groups that are
:04:23. > :04:27.particularly interesting first of all a group that they dodged the
:04:28. > :04:30.surgeons. These are headteachers who act decisively and cut out both
:04:31. > :04:35.staff and pupils from their schools as they turned them around. Second,
:04:36. > :04:38.the group they call the philosophers. These are headteachers
:04:39. > :04:42.who think of themselves as just experienced teachers, not really
:04:43. > :04:54.leaders or managers. They talk a lot about pet -- pedagogy in particular.
:04:55. > :04:58.This thirdly, the architects, slow and mystical as planners who like to
:04:59. > :05:02.do things in secret. These categories are very different.
:05:03. > :05:13.Surgeons dropped into a school would be expected to expel as many as 28%
:05:14. > :05:17.of the final year students to improve GCSE results. The
:05:18. > :05:23.philosophers, 6%. The architects, just 1%. The philosophers don't
:05:24. > :05:27.really change anything in terms of staff. While the architects manage
:05:28. > :05:32.out poorly performing staff, they recruit replacements, so they end up
:05:33. > :05:36.with a bigger staff. Surgeons are very decisive. They make quick
:05:37. > :05:40.actions and sometimes those actions are controversial. A cut large
:05:41. > :05:44.numbers of students and also get rid of underperforming staff come about
:05:45. > :05:49.in the short term they are able to increase examination results very
:05:50. > :05:52.quickly. You can see that in this graph, which chose the annual
:05:53. > :05:57.average change of exam results while each sort of head is in post. The
:05:58. > :06:02.surgeons's schools certainly do much better than the loss of that and the
:06:03. > :06:06.architects at getting results up. They massively increase the
:06:07. > :06:11.proportion of children who leave with five good GCSEs. Our surgeons
:06:12. > :06:16.good in the long term? Surgeons are not good in the long-term because
:06:17. > :06:20.they are short is. They aggressively focus on students about to take begs
:06:21. > :06:25.nations and expel those who they think will not pass. School leaders
:06:26. > :06:30.who take more time and focus on working with the community are able
:06:31. > :06:34.to build sustainable schools. Yet is the same chart you saw before but
:06:35. > :06:39.let's look at the year after those heads leave. The architects's
:06:40. > :06:46.schools are stable but surgeons's schools's results collapse, dropping
:06:47. > :06:54.after two years too. Only after three years do surgeons's results
:06:55. > :07:00.stabilise, now the architects look the best. But remember, surgeons
:07:01. > :07:10.shrink the size of the school by hoofing out kids. The surgeons would
:07:11. > :07:14.average only between 50 and 90 students graduating with five or
:07:15. > :07:23.more good GCSEs. The architects would leave a school where 160-170
:07:24. > :07:27.children each year would get five GCSEs. The raw social good of an
:07:28. > :07:31.architect is way bigger. The architects focus on building the
:07:32. > :07:36.right school for the future, the right school for its community. They
:07:37. > :07:39.start off by improving the environment in the school, improving
:07:40. > :07:42.behaviour of the students and improving the leadership, and then
:07:43. > :07:46.improving the teaching. They also engage with the local community and
:07:47. > :07:50.try and understand what is the right school. For example, they seek
:07:51. > :07:53.parental complaints as a positive thing because they believe that
:07:54. > :07:59.parents are now engaged with the school, which is the right thing for
:08:00. > :08:04.the school going forwards. He would hope that our school system is
:08:05. > :08:07.systematically identifying and rewarding those architect
:08:08. > :08:12.headteachers. But it isn't. If you look at who the Government gives
:08:13. > :08:17.honours two, 60 3% of the surgeon headteachers in our example had a
:08:18. > :08:20.gong of some kind. For the architects, it was just 13%. If you
:08:21. > :08:23.have a look at who governing bodies are winning to pay the most, you see
:08:24. > :08:32.the same pattern. The average surgeon was earning ?154,000 per
:08:33. > :08:35.year on average, as opposed to ?86,000 a year for the architects,
:08:36. > :08:40.even though they run much bigger schools. Generally when governing
:08:41. > :08:46.boards are looking at how to reward their head teachers, they will only
:08:47. > :08:51.look at one year's performance. One year's data. And indeed, the system
:08:52. > :08:56.as a whole is geared around one or two years in terms of, Ofsted comes
:08:57. > :09:03.and visits very frequently in underperforming schools, league
:09:04. > :09:07.tables are published every year. So without a doubt, head teachers will
:09:08. > :09:12.very much feel that they are on an annual cycle of being monitored. So
:09:13. > :09:16.I think we could really do with a sea change where all of us think
:09:17. > :09:21.much more about what we need to do to improve schools in the
:09:22. > :09:25.medium-term. If that weren't enough, there is another fascinating finding
:09:26. > :09:33.too. Of the surgeon headteachers, 71% were PE teachers. Of the
:09:34. > :09:38.philosophers, 78% were English teachers. And of the architects, 68%
:09:39. > :09:44.were either history or economics teachers. Our most surprising
:09:45. > :09:47.finding was the clearly and between the subjects they studied and taught
:09:48. > :09:54.and how they then behave as leaders of schools. We believe that this
:09:55. > :09:58.clearly comes because they have not had leadership training or exposure
:09:59. > :10:03.to other ways of thinking, so they fullback on the values and beliefs
:10:04. > :10:09.within the subjects that they have studied and taught over the years.
:10:10. > :10:14.For example, PET just believe that our winners and losers and you're
:10:15. > :10:19.only as strong as your weakest link. -- PE teachers. So you can see how
:10:20. > :10:25.they believe in excluding the worst performing students. We are not
:10:26. > :10:29.rewarding heads to make the biggest impact for the longest number over
:10:30. > :10:30.the longest period. We are simply rewarding those heads who are best
:10:31. > :10:33.at playing the game. Joining me now is Sir Michael
:10:34. > :10:41.Wilshaw, who is the Chief Inspector And indeed a former history teacher
:10:42. > :10:45.himself! Good evening. Terrifying that some of the best heads in the
:10:46. > :10:49.country are being paid the least. I'm really glad this research has
:10:50. > :10:54.come out because it confirms things that I have believed in for a long
:10:55. > :10:59.time, there are lots of people who go unrecognised to do a fantastic
:11:00. > :11:04.job getting good results in the long-term and yet they unrecognised
:11:05. > :11:10.and unrewarded. We've got too many people in the system who are into
:11:11. > :11:12.self-aggrandisement, empire building, receiving massive salaries
:11:13. > :11:19.and who are not building for the future. A great head is not only
:11:20. > :11:24.somebody who improves results for all children but also ensures that
:11:25. > :11:30.there is a future for the school and gets staff in who can replicate the
:11:31. > :11:33.success that they have achieved. Some of this short-term stuff is
:11:34. > :11:38.absolutely desperate, because they are going for the quick hit, the
:11:39. > :11:44.short-term, the exclusion of that year's GCSE pupils, in these
:11:45. > :11:49.so-called quick turnaround is, in some schools it is 28%, in some
:11:50. > :11:54.schools it is 50%. Of course you can get any result you want the more
:11:55. > :11:58.kids you exclude! If our inspectors found that we would do something
:11:59. > :12:03.about it and heavily criticised the school. It doesn't seem to have been
:12:04. > :12:06.found. We do criticise schools who have high exclusion rates. We
:12:07. > :12:16.produced a report a few months ago on the underperformance of children
:12:17. > :12:20.between 11 and 14 at Key stage three because in secondary schools were
:12:21. > :12:25.focusing on key stage four, yet and India 11, particular focusing on
:12:26. > :12:30.year 11, last year group, to the exclusion of focusing on those
:12:31. > :12:35.younger youngsters between 11 and 14, and as a result, although their
:12:36. > :12:39.outcomes look good on the surface, they should have been a lot better.
:12:40. > :12:44.But you are Chief expects and you are also head of Ofsted. You think
:12:45. > :12:50.that this has been a flawed system. Do you think you should have done
:12:51. > :12:54.more? Have Ofsted been far too short term is about this? They're not. I
:12:55. > :12:58.signed letters every week and if you talk to headteachers who receive
:12:59. > :13:01.them, they say they are pleased to receive them, these are headteachers
:13:02. > :13:06.in schools that are not good, they are underperforming, but they expect
:13:07. > :13:09.to see that the leader is putting into place the building blocks for
:13:10. > :13:14.improvement and strategies for long-term growth. I send those
:13:15. > :13:18.letters out to save the school is not good yet, the results are not
:13:19. > :13:23.good, but you are a good leader and you have got in place those systems
:13:24. > :13:28.to improve the school. So why is it that these short-term heads, the
:13:29. > :13:33.so-called surgeons, the quick fix guys and girls who get in and get
:13:34. > :13:40.out fast, they are getting paid nearly double other heads? We need
:13:41. > :13:43.to blame the governors for that and headteachers prepared to commit
:13:44. > :13:46.themselves to the community and the school. I get worried about
:13:47. > :13:49.headteachers who get the gongs and the big salaries and then go off
:13:50. > :13:53.somewhere else for a bigger salary. As they had, I spent a long time in
:13:54. > :13:59.schools to make sure that school worked and that the community was
:14:00. > :14:03.proud of that institution. We need heads who will commit themselves for
:14:04. > :14:06.the long-term. And if they don't do that, the government should do
:14:07. > :14:11.something about it. They certainly shouldn't be rewarded by the
:14:12. > :14:15.government. Let's move onto more broadly talking about education
:14:16. > :14:19.under this Government. Describe the impact that you think Theresa May's
:14:20. > :14:24.plans for grammar schools will have? I've been quite open about this, I
:14:25. > :14:28.think it is a retrograde step. I came into teaching to improve the
:14:29. > :14:33.lot of all children, not just some. If we go down the route of grammar
:14:34. > :14:37.schools, the 15% - 20% will do well but the rest will do badly. All you
:14:38. > :14:45.have to do is look at areas with grammar schools. Look at Kent, look
:14:46. > :14:47.at ducking, Sutton. Look at the attainment gap between those who go
:14:48. > :15:01.to the grammar schools than those who don't.
:15:02. > :15:09.The best teachers will gravitate to the place where it is easiest to
:15:10. > :15:13.teach. All you have to do is speak to people in modern schools in Kent
:15:14. > :15:19.and they will say how difficult it is to get staff. If you look at
:15:20. > :15:24.London schools, they are doing fantastically well serving the most
:15:25. > :15:29.deprived communities. I can take you to academies in Portsmouth and
:15:30. > :15:34.Birmingham where you have got great heads, architect heads, who are
:15:35. > :15:38.doing very well by their children. The big challenge for our schools
:15:39. > :15:42.system is to make sure we have got enough teachers and enough leaders
:15:43. > :15:47.in our schools to improve them. It is not about structural change, we
:15:48. > :15:52.have had enough of that. If you look back at the tenure of Michael Gove
:15:53. > :15:59.and Nicky Morgan, how would you rate that? You were there during those
:16:00. > :16:05.years. I was and I have had a lot of admiration for Michael Gove. He
:16:06. > :16:10.felt, as I and many other people felt, that we needed to give more
:16:11. > :16:15.autonomy to headteachers to make a difference. That has happened. We
:16:16. > :16:20.need more diversity in the system with academies and free schools. He
:16:21. > :16:23.realised the curriculum and the examination system were not as good
:16:24. > :16:28.as they should have been anti-reform to those and we are seeing the
:16:29. > :16:33.benefits now. If there was one thing you wished you had pushed harder on,
:16:34. > :16:36.what would it be? I wish I had pushed harder on focusing on what it
:16:37. > :16:43.matters for those youngsters who are not going to university, those
:16:44. > :16:47.youngsters who need skills, who need to go to an apprenticeship. I wish I
:16:48. > :16:52.had focused on that much more than I did. That is a big challenge for the
:16:53. > :16:53.country, as well as ensuring you have got good teachers.
:16:54. > :16:57.In Brussels tonight, Theresa May at her first EU summit
:16:58. > :17:00.is addressing the 27 other EU leaders after dinner on the subject
:17:01. > :17:02.of the UK's departure from the European Union.
:17:03. > :17:04.They apparently have been instructed to listen but stay schtum.
:17:05. > :17:07.The body language on both sides tonight will no doubt be cordial,
:17:08. > :17:11.but the devil will be in the detail, and one very big detail will be
:17:12. > :17:17.Katya Adler, the BBC's Europe Editor, is live in Brussels
:17:18. > :17:24.Katya, what has been the reception to Theresa May?
:17:25. > :17:29.This is her first EU summit as Britain's Prime Minister and after
:17:30. > :17:34.the Brexit vote we would have thought it would be a frosty
:17:35. > :17:38.reception. But all the leaders here are seasoned politicians and you can
:17:39. > :17:43.call it duplicity or being down bids diplomats, that they are perfectly
:17:44. > :17:47.capable of picking holes in each other's politics and being polite to
:17:48. > :17:51.each other. But if you listen to the leaders who arrived at this summit,
:17:52. > :17:57.there is a noticeable hardening of town. Francois Hollande of France
:17:58. > :18:02.said, if she was a hard Brexit, we will give her hard negotiations.
:18:03. > :18:08.Even German, the Netherlands and Italy are hardening their tones. We
:18:09. > :18:12.have to be careful of expecting things to happen too quickly.
:18:13. > :18:17.Although Brexit is one of the most dramatic developments in post-war
:18:18. > :18:22.Europe, this is about a process and not a single event. In the meantime
:18:23. > :18:26.we are in a holding pattern of screaming silencers. Theresa May
:18:27. > :18:30.refuses to tell the leaders the precise details of the Brexit she
:18:31. > :18:38.once and they refuse to top details whether and until a formal Brexit
:18:39. > :18:43.leaving has started. Tonight all the leaders, including Theresa May,
:18:44. > :18:48.talked about Russia and Syria. The Prime Minister insisted the UK
:18:49. > :18:52.remains a full EU member until it leaves and demanded not to be cut
:18:53. > :18:57.out of, decision-making. The British have voted to leave the EU and
:18:58. > :19:02.Theresa May says they will leave the EU, but we are an infinite number of
:19:03. > :19:11.decisions and meetings away and tell the UK walks out of the door. One of
:19:12. > :19:17.the big issues to deal with freedom of movement and we have learned that
:19:18. > :19:23.has been pushed back against the Chancellor and there is believing in
:19:24. > :19:29.a softer Brexit who say the doors should be kept open to lower skilled
:19:30. > :19:35.migrants coming from the EU to avoid damage to the economy. Theresa May
:19:36. > :19:40.has been urged by senior figures in Whitehall to wake to the last minute
:19:41. > :19:45.before she triggers Article 50. The EU leaders have to wait until the
:19:46. > :19:51.end of March. They are making this case because Britain needs every
:19:52. > :19:54.minute to get its ducks in a row. It is working process. You were talking
:19:55. > :19:58.about those hostile briefings against Michael Hammond on the Prime
:19:59. > :20:05.Minister was not amused by those briefings her Chancellor. There was
:20:06. > :20:09.talk of the time of those briefings imposing rules to keep the doors
:20:10. > :20:13.open to highly skilled workers and make it more difficult for lower
:20:14. > :20:17.skilled workers. But there is a concern if you close the door too
:20:18. > :20:21.much on the lower skilled workers it would be bad for the economy and you
:20:22. > :20:29.would undermine key areas like the care sector.
:20:30. > :20:36.Ring a bell? What we think should happen is an Australian style
:20:37. > :20:39.points-based system so we get the people we need for the NHS and for
:20:40. > :20:45.all our other businesses and services. It was one of the defining
:20:46. > :20:50.issues in the referendum campaign, Britain would take back control of
:20:51. > :20:54.its borders and definitively bring down emigration. But it did not take
:20:55. > :20:58.long for Theresa May to say no to that proposal. What the British
:20:59. > :21:03.people voted for was to bring some control into the movement of people
:21:04. > :21:10.from the EU into the UK. A points-based system does not give
:21:11. > :21:13.you that control. Since then immigration has unsurprisingly
:21:14. > :21:17.emerged as one of the most contentious issues as ministers try
:21:18. > :21:21.to thrash out an agreed UK negotiating position. The
:21:22. > :21:26.Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has found himself under fire from leave
:21:27. > :21:31.supporters after he urged caution at the meeting of the Cabinet's Brexit
:21:32. > :21:35.committee over plans to restrict unskilled workers from the EU. We
:21:36. > :21:39.understand Theresa May was deeply irritated that are misleading
:21:40. > :21:43.account of a discussion behind closed doors was leaked in a
:21:44. > :21:47.deliberate bid to damage the Chancellor. The discussions in
:21:48. > :21:50.Whitehall are described as fluid. Advocates of a hard Brexit are
:21:51. > :21:55.pressing for a system of work permits designed to keep the door
:21:56. > :21:59.open to skilled migrants and narrow opportunities for unskilled workers.
:22:00. > :22:04.Where there is an economic need, the Polish builder is an example, work
:22:05. > :22:08.permits would be issued for less skilled workers. Those advocating a
:22:09. > :22:13.softer Brexit are saying the doors should be kept open much wider to
:22:14. > :22:18.lower skilled workers, or risk undermining, for example, the care
:22:19. > :22:22.sector. One idea is to set a base level for a migrant salary. One
:22:23. > :22:27.remains a porter warned Britain would have to tread carefully. We
:22:28. > :22:35.cannot have our cake and eat it, we cannot have complete control over
:22:36. > :22:39.who comes here and at the single market. Is there a compromise where
:22:40. > :22:44.we have limited controls over who comes here and limited, but not all
:22:45. > :22:48.membership of the single market? That is possible in theory, whether
:22:49. > :22:53.it is negotiable in practice would be difficult legally and
:22:54. > :22:58.politically. A former cabinet minister on the leave aside she said
:22:59. > :23:02.Britain should make up its own mind. Immigration should not be a matter
:23:03. > :23:06.for negotiation with the rest of the EU. The point of getting that
:23:07. > :23:10.control over our laws and Borders is that we make those decisions and no
:23:11. > :23:15.other country asks us what rules they should apply about access to
:23:16. > :23:20.their country for work or travel. We should apply the same rules to
:23:21. > :23:24.people coming from Europe as we do to people coming from other friendly
:23:25. > :23:29.countries. The present system has a whiff of racialism about it with
:23:30. > :23:36.people coming from our former colonial territories who are
:23:37. > :23:41.severely controlled and those coming from white, European countries are
:23:42. > :23:46.not. The same rules should apply to everybody. Theresa May faces a long
:23:47. > :23:50.and winding road before she formally losses there is Brexit negotiations
:23:51. > :23:53.with the rest of the EU, possibly at the last minute at the end of March.
:23:54. > :23:57.The skirmishes have just begun. Earlier today I spoke to the German
:23:58. > :24:00.Deputy Finance Minister, Jens Spahn, to ask about his ambitions
:24:01. > :24:03.for Brexit discussions. I started by asking him
:24:04. > :24:06.whether given Britain is projected to have the strongest growth
:24:07. > :24:09.in the EU this year, despite Brexit, that the UK could do perfectly well
:24:10. > :24:21.outside of the Union. This uncertainty stops investment.
:24:22. > :24:25.It does not bring more growth, but less growth and I think it is
:24:26. > :24:33.important for all of us that we start the process and get an idea
:24:34. > :24:39.where it might end. Let me say this, I think we underestimate the
:24:40. > :24:43.long-term results of this Brexit. Of course we can argue about what is
:24:44. > :24:48.happening in the share markets today, tomorrow and next week, but
:24:49. > :24:53.the long-term situation of Britain as well as the European Union will
:24:54. > :24:57.change and that will affect the economy in a different way, much
:24:58. > :25:04.more than we see today. But I wonder if there is a possibility that we
:25:05. > :25:09.could have EU nationals coming to the UK to work if they have worked
:25:10. > :25:15.rhesus. It is free movement of labour with work visas, in return
:25:16. > :25:19.for access to the single market. Is it not possible these work visas
:25:20. > :25:24.might be a way of negotiating? Between no relations and the
:25:25. > :25:31.internal market there are many options in between, so I am sure we
:25:32. > :25:36.can find something for strong trade and a strong economic agreement and
:25:37. > :25:40.something that is about movement and working in Britain or the other way
:25:41. > :25:47.round, on the continent for British people as well. But if it is really
:25:48. > :25:51.an internal market as it is now in the European Union, then you have to
:25:52. > :25:57.accept the freedom of movement. That is one of the pillars of the
:25:58. > :26:02.European Union, it is one of the most important values that the
:26:03. > :26:07.European Union has to offer to its average citizens and we cannot
:26:08. > :26:10.compromise on that. Is it possible we could make financial
:26:11. > :26:17.contributions as we do now and in return we might be able to continue
:26:18. > :26:24.passports, for example, that is it possible there could be set access
:26:25. > :26:29.in return for contributions? It depends on the package but I do not
:26:30. > :26:33.see the point in paying contributions, paying money to the
:26:34. > :26:38.EU budget that you do not have any control over any more. What is the
:26:39. > :26:41.improvement compared to the situation to day where you are
:26:42. > :26:45.paying money and you have control over it at the same time and
:26:46. > :26:51.discussing what is happening with the money in Brussels? I do not see
:26:52. > :26:55.the point, but if that is something Great Britain once, it can be part
:26:56. > :26:59.of a package. When it comes to pass sporting for the financial
:27:00. > :27:05.institutions, that has to be negotiated as well, but if you want
:27:06. > :27:12.to have that, you need to accept at least basically the EU regulation
:27:13. > :27:18.that we have in the financial area. You cannot become a kind of
:27:19. > :27:24.financial haven, which some people are dreaming of in the UK, some
:27:25. > :27:31.banks are dreaming of it. A very senior figure in Germany
:27:32. > :27:40.representing the German auto industry said the UK is an important
:27:41. > :27:44.market, but actually cohesion of the EU, 27 countries, is more important
:27:45. > :27:49.for this industry. That is an interesting thing for him to say. He
:27:50. > :27:54.seems to be saying even if it meant job losses, it is more important,
:27:55. > :28:01.the very idea of Europe is more important. What do you think of
:28:02. > :28:06.that? He is right. Of course we want to keep this market and we want to
:28:07. > :28:12.have access to this market as open as possible, but not at any cost,
:28:13. > :28:16.not at any price. It depends on the conditions. The internal market,
:28:17. > :28:20.really free access, means you have to accept the freedom of movement
:28:21. > :28:26.and if that is a condition that is not wanted, then we have to accept
:28:27. > :28:31.the access we have today, for example the car market in the UK,
:28:32. > :28:36.might change and we have to find a new settlement about it. Do you
:28:37. > :28:41.think if we did decide when we looked at the deal and we did not
:28:42. > :28:46.like it, is there a way we can get back and with Debbie the good will
:28:47. > :28:50.to take us back? I do not know what will happen in the next few years.
:28:51. > :28:59.We have to see the process and negotiate. I expect this referendum
:29:00. > :29:01.counts, but if there should be a new situation in four years' time, of
:29:02. > :29:08.situation in four years' time, of course we will debate it again.
:29:09. > :29:11.Donald Trump's refusal to commit to the result of the US presidential
:29:12. > :29:14.election in the third presidential debate last night was a serious
:29:15. > :29:17.moment for the world's biggest democracy, even by the terms of this
:29:18. > :29:20.campaign, which apparently shocked even his own backroom team.
:29:21. > :29:32.I watch, do you make the commitment that you will absolutely not. I will
:29:33. > :29:37.look at it at the time. I am not looking at it now. I will look at it
:29:38. > :29:42.at the time. What I have seen is so bad, I will tell you at the time, I
:29:43. > :29:47.will keep you in suspense. Chris, let me respond because that is
:29:48. > :29:50.horrifying. Every time Donald thinks things are not going in his
:29:51. > :29:57.direction commie claims whatever it is is rigged against him. Today at a
:29:58. > :29:59.rally in Delaware, Tom had a moderated message, you will accept
:30:00. > :30:10.the result if he wins. I would like to promise and pledged
:30:11. > :30:15.to all of my voters and supporters and to all of the people of the
:30:16. > :30:23.United States that I will totally accept the results of this great and
:30:24. > :30:29.historic presidential election. If I win!
:30:30. > :30:39.Well, in a moment I will be speaking to an adviser to Donald Trump, but
:30:40. > :30:46.first we will go to the American political historian. Good evening.
:30:47. > :30:49.First of all, how big a deal do you think this was, Donald Trump last
:30:50. > :30:56.night and then today? How dangerous do you think it is, from your
:30:57. > :30:59.perspective? I think it's about as calamitous a development for
:31:00. > :31:04.democracy as can be imagined, not just for the legitimacy of this
:31:05. > :31:08.election but for the legitimacy of thousands of elections that go on in
:31:09. > :31:12.America every year. Losers, and by the way, that is not a moderation of
:31:13. > :31:15.his position at all, saying he will only accept the results of the
:31:16. > :31:20.election if he wins is saying that he will not accept the results of
:31:21. > :31:23.the election is now saying that thousands of politicians around the
:31:24. > :31:27.country can be licensed to do be the same thing and if that happens, we
:31:28. > :31:31.will have a cascade that threatens the very foundations of our
:31:32. > :31:34.republic. It's dangerous. A lot of people will just see this as Donald
:31:35. > :31:43.Trump just blustering, this is just what he does. Well, what he did in
:31:44. > :31:47.2012 was he tweeted that because Barack Obama was ahead in the
:31:48. > :31:58.electoral college at a time in which John McCain was ahead in the popular
:31:59. > :32:02.vote,... He has supporters who treat everything he says as gospel. A lot
:32:03. > :32:06.of the supporters have guns and they have promised to bring them to the
:32:07. > :32:11.polling places. He has a ready distorted the election badly by
:32:12. > :32:15.making people believe it's not legitimate, they may not show up.
:32:16. > :32:21.It's terrible for a country that relies on the rule of law and
:32:22. > :32:24.reciprocal about allegation. You have obviously studied American
:32:25. > :32:28.political history. Has there ever been anything like this? Actually
:32:29. > :32:36.saying that the election could be rigged, before. Never. The Trump
:32:37. > :32:39.people are trying to compare this to 2000 when Al Gore asked for a
:32:40. > :32:44.recount, but what actually happened was when the election was announced
:32:45. > :32:49.for George W Bush, Al Gore accepted the results and then because of the
:32:50. > :32:53.closeness of the result in Florida, an automatic recount was kicked in
:32:54. > :32:57.by the procedure of law and he let that go forward. It's a completely
:32:58. > :33:01.different situation. Completely unprecedented. Let's say that on
:33:02. > :33:06.November the 9th Donald Trump loses the popular vote and challenges,
:33:07. > :33:12.what could actually happen? How long could it go through the courts?
:33:13. > :33:15.Well, we have the precedent in 2000. If it's close enough, which it
:33:16. > :33:23.doesn't look like it's going to be, by the way, in most polls, Linton is
:33:24. > :33:26.6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% ahead. The procedure is actually quite
:33:27. > :33:29.complicated because it is handled state-by-state and precinct by
:33:30. > :33:34.precinct. We don't have a federal election system in America and so it
:33:35. > :33:38.could be a colossal mess and that could be a crisis not only for
:33:39. > :33:42.America but for the world. What do you think the long-term impact of
:33:43. > :33:47.this questioning of the validity of the American electoral system might
:33:48. > :33:52.be? Hopefully nothing. That is up to Mr Trump. I employ him to think of
:33:53. > :33:56.the country, think of the world and do the patriotically and accept the
:33:57. > :33:59.results of the election. If he doesn't, the long-term impact of the
:34:00. > :34:04.most powerful democracy in the world, in the eyes of the rest of
:34:05. > :34:07.the world being questioned, would reverberate everywhere. We would not
:34:08. > :34:11.be able to hold the rest of the world to any kind of standard
:34:12. > :34:17.because the way America has tried to do things for 240 years now.
:34:18. > :34:26.Thank you very much, Rick. We are joined by the foreign adviser to
:34:27. > :34:35.Donald Trump, who declined the opportunity to have a conversation
:34:36. > :34:39.there. Good evening. Good evening. Why is Mr Trump doing this now? You
:34:40. > :34:43.can see clearly that they are trying to make him into a cartoon with
:34:44. > :34:52.these attacks. It is not what he said. If it is rigged, if it is
:34:53. > :34:57.clearly rigged... And to do that, it is not down to him to decide, it is
:34:58. > :35:02.his lawyers and the results coming from various states. The previous
:35:03. > :35:07.figure has mentioned that in 2000 precisely President George Bush and
:35:08. > :35:11.former Vice President Al Gore had asked the investigation and the
:35:12. > :35:15.Supreme Court to decide, is that so different? That was the question of
:35:16. > :35:20.a particular number of votes and Al Gore stepped back. Where is the
:35:21. > :35:26.evidence that Mr Trump is accumulating of rigging? It is all
:35:27. > :35:30.over the Internet. Your viewers can go and check the cases appearing in
:35:31. > :35:35.Colorado, in Florida. This is not to say that rigging is going to happen,
:35:36. > :35:41.but he is taking measures. He is saying, if it is going to happen
:35:42. > :35:45.then I'm going to take measures. I think what he is saying is because,
:35:46. > :35:55.in the last election, when I was the adviser to Governor Romney... The Al
:35:56. > :36:00.Gore situation was quite different because they were mandated for an
:36:01. > :36:08.automatic recount for the hanging chads and that was quite different.
:36:09. > :36:13.Now the Republican senator has said Donald Trump saying he might not
:36:14. > :36:19.accept the result is beyond the pale and it does not have the support of
:36:20. > :36:24.senior Republicans. If Donald Trump said, "If I lose then I will go
:36:25. > :36:28.against it", then yes. But that is not what he said. He said, if there
:36:29. > :36:30.is rigging and if there are problems. He cannot say what the
:36:31. > :36:35.problems are because we're not yet at the ballad box. There he is
:36:36. > :36:43.bets. -- at the ballot box. The day he was perfectly clear that if he
:36:44. > :36:47.wins there will be no investigation. He was talking about if he doesn't
:36:48. > :36:52.win. Is it just Donald Trump last in? I'm sure you saw the video. He
:36:53. > :36:58.was sarcastic. His people were waiting for him to say, if I lose...
:36:59. > :37:03.And he said, if I win and then everybody was clapping! This is
:37:04. > :37:10.Donald Trump's style. He does not mean that really, if I am defeated,
:37:11. > :37:14.I'm going to question the election. That is not the discussion on
:37:15. > :37:18.strategic issues. So this is just Donald Trump's style and as the
:37:19. > :37:22.polls widen, do you think this is really him saying, I know I'm going
:37:23. > :37:26.to lose? Donald Trump knows exactly that his voters are not impacted by
:37:27. > :37:31.the propaganda campaign waged against him. He wants to make sure
:37:32. > :37:35.that this heart of his constituencies are going to vote. We
:37:36. > :37:40.know that he is not backed by many politicians in his party, so that is
:37:41. > :37:44.his political right to say so and under different circumstances he may
:37:45. > :37:48.not have. But that's what he did. So this is the kind of strategy that
:37:49. > :37:53.you would suggest that he pursue? I would not suggest that for the point
:37:54. > :37:57.that I am not an adviser on domestic issues but on international and
:37:58. > :38:00.national security. I would not recommend that he say so had he not
:38:01. > :38:04.been under the kind of cartoon attacks that he has for the last two
:38:05. > :38:08.weeks. You heard the previous speaker talking about people taking
:38:09. > :38:13.their guns to polling stations and so forth, that actually, you would
:38:14. > :38:17.suggest he was being sarcastic, but a lot of people you would believe
:38:18. > :38:21.and agree presumably take Donald Trump at his word and believe
:38:22. > :38:25.absolutely every thing he says and the tone in which he says it. Is
:38:26. > :38:29.that not a problem that there could be incitement? Mr Trump has never
:38:30. > :38:35.asked any of his followers to take any guns anywhere. The only violence
:38:36. > :38:38.we saw were against GOP centres in North Carolina and other places. It
:38:39. > :38:42.is certainly not Mr Trump who will be calling on insurrections if he
:38:43. > :38:46.loses, but he has been sending this message because he saw and many of
:38:47. > :38:50.his advisers told him that there are preparations, maybe not coming from
:38:51. > :38:59.the top but he is warning that he is not going to be silent if there are
:39:00. > :39:01.problems with this election like rigging. He is for democracy and not
:39:02. > :39:11.against it. The papers now and one of the
:39:12. > :39:14.presidential hopefuls says that the border belongs in Kent and not
:39:15. > :39:23.Calais and France must push its border with Britain to the Kent
:39:24. > :39:27.coast and stop managing migrants from the UK.
:39:28. > :39:40.Moving on to the mirror and the shaming of BHS boss is the story.
:39:41. > :39:50.And now we go to the Times. "Crackdown On rip-off gambling
:39:51. > :39:52.companies". And web crime goes to the highest level for 14 years.
:39:53. > :39:59.Before we go, the The Portuguese photographer
:40:00. > :40:01.Tito Mouraz has just published a new collection,
:40:02. > :40:04.The House of The Seven Women. His photographs explore
:40:05. > :40:05.the Beira-Alta region of Portugal where he grew up where,
:40:06. > :40:08.according to local legend, there is a house that is said to be
:40:09. > :40:11.haunted by the ghosts of seven women, all maiden sisters,
:40:12. > :40:13.one of them a witch. On nights of the full moon,
:40:14. > :40:19.the women would fly from their balcony down onto the street
:40:20. > :41:09.where they would seduce Good evening. Heading off to bed and
:41:10. > :41:19.wondering what is in store tomorrow, pretty much what we have seen this
:41:20. > :41:21.week. We are stuck in repeat mode at the moment. The early-morning