:00:00. > :00:07.That frustrating feeling, when you're chasing that thing
:00:08. > :00:14.Well, folks, that's Britain trying to get the deficit down to hit
:00:15. > :00:21.The OBR forecasts that debt will rise from 84.2% of GDP
:00:22. > :00:36.last year to 87.3% this year, peaking at 90.2% in 2017-18.
:00:37. > :00:37.Yes, tens of billions more borrowing than planned.
:00:38. > :00:43.After years of austerity, we're way off solving
:00:44. > :00:48.We'll look at the challenging plan to hit the new targets, and ask how
:00:49. > :00:52.The debt fell last month - everyone expected it to rise.
:00:53. > :00:56.The forecasts for growth were low, but they are higher.
:00:57. > :00:58.Consumer confidence and retail sales are at record levels.
:00:59. > :01:01.So my view is, by and large, the Chancellor has to plan for the
:01:02. > :01:04.worst, but I think the general expectation is, we can do a lot
:01:05. > :01:07.The Cabinet Minister responsible for public spending will give
:01:08. > :01:11.us his excuses for failing to clear the deficit, and his Labour shadow
:01:12. > :01:16.And, as the debt keeps building, are the voters
:01:17. > :01:22.I think it's a small price to pay, to be honest with you,
:01:23. > :01:26.We are a resilient country. We are resilient people.
:01:27. > :01:27.We'll get there. We'll fight.
:01:28. > :01:33.And the killer of Jo Cox gets a full life sentence.
:01:34. > :01:35.Her friend and colleague, Alison McGovern, talks to us
:01:36. > :01:50.Every few years, we get a budget or Autumn Statement
:01:51. > :01:53.that has to break bad news to the nation.
:01:54. > :01:55.Be in no doubt, today was one of those occasions.
:01:56. > :01:58.It looks like we are going to be a long way from where
:01:59. > :02:02.we thought we'd be at the end of the parliament.
:02:03. > :02:04.The forecasts have had to be revised, and the Government
:02:05. > :02:08.is about ?17 billion poorer in 2020 than it was anticipating.
:02:09. > :02:14.What a stubborn old beast borrowing is turning out to be.
:02:15. > :02:17.In view of the uncertainty facing the economy and in the face
:02:18. > :02:19.of slower growth forecasts, we no longer seek to deliver
:02:20. > :02:31.The Prime Minister and I, Mr Speaker, remain firmly committed
:02:32. > :02:35.to seeing the public finances return to balance as soon as practicable,
:02:36. > :02:47.While leaving enough flexibility to support
:02:48. > :02:56.In other words, fiscal control means what the Chancellor says it
:02:57. > :02:58.will mean, no running commentary, just trust the Government
:02:59. > :03:02.Now, we don't need to run a government surplus,
:03:03. > :03:07.so don't worry about that target being kicked into the distance.
:03:08. > :03:10.The real problem is the lack of a plan for the less ambitious
:03:11. > :03:16.Frankly, for me, it is today that we have to declare the idea
:03:17. > :03:18.of cutting spending to balance the books can
:03:19. > :03:23.Welfare cuts have been put into reverse today -
:03:24. > :03:30.Extra money has been thrown at prisons today.
:03:31. > :03:32.The cuts there have gone too far as well.
:03:33. > :03:35.This nails a point I'm trying to make.
:03:36. > :03:37.The day-to-day spending of government departments,
:03:38. > :03:39.measured per capita, and how it is planned
:03:40. > :03:43.The Government still hopes to shrink spending.
:03:44. > :03:45.If you look at it accumulating over the parliament,
:03:46. > :03:50.actually about a 7% reduction over to 2021.
:03:51. > :03:52.Now look at what they've achieved this year.
:03:53. > :04:00.Can they really say this is the deficit-reduction plan
:04:01. > :04:03.if they've overspent this year and not managed to cut?
:04:04. > :04:06.The truth is, we have a stubborn deficit and salami slicing spending
:04:07. > :04:10.no longer looks plausible as a solution.
:04:11. > :04:14.Right, the second story of the day is how we got into that,
:04:15. > :04:19.At least that's what the OBR, the Office for Budget
:04:20. > :04:25.While the OBR is clear that it cannot predict the deal
:04:26. > :04:29.the UK will strike with the EU, its current view is that
:04:30. > :04:32.the referendum decision means that potential growth over the forecast
:04:33. > :04:35.period is likely to be 2.4 percentage points lower
:04:36. > :04:41.than would have otherwise been the case.
:04:42. > :04:44.Taking 2.4 % out of our economy doesn't sound like much,
:04:45. > :04:49.but that is the OBR view of the cost of Brexit.
:04:50. > :04:53.When I said there was ?17 billion of bad news in its forecasts
:04:54. > :04:56.for the last year of the parliament, about 15 billion is
:04:57. > :05:01.So - the declining fiscal position and the EU debate are
:05:02. > :05:04.Our political editor, Nick Watt, has been soaking it up
:05:05. > :05:22.On a chilly autumn day, the nation's spirits were momentarily lifted when
:05:23. > :05:31.Philip Hammond found a spare ?7.6 million to save a jewel in the
:05:32. > :05:34.nation's heritage. If Philip Hammond had Jane Austen in mind, some may
:05:35. > :05:40.have seen his Autumn Statement as more reminiscent of a dark genre. To
:05:41. > :05:48.them, it was the revenge of the experts.
:05:49. > :05:54.We thought we had seen them off in the referendum. I think the people
:05:55. > :06:01.in this country have had enough of experts. But today, experts have
:06:02. > :06:06.hovered over the statement, the warning by Robert Chote that the
:06:07. > :06:12.cost of Brexit would account for half of the ?122 billion increase in
:06:13. > :06:17.government borrowing, setting the framework for Philip Hammond's first
:06:18. > :06:21.big event as Chancellor. Leave supporters were not happy. I think
:06:22. > :06:28.the OBR is extremely reasonable in the approach it has taken, but
:06:29. > :06:32.wrong. It assumes when we leave the European Union we will apply the
:06:33. > :06:36.same tariffs to the rest of the world as we currently apply. That
:06:37. > :06:40.would be a lunatic thing to do. Half of the benefit of leaving the EU is
:06:41. > :06:46.that we can set our own tariffs. Until the Government has developed
:06:47. > :06:49.its negotiating strategy and explained it, the OBR can only
:06:50. > :06:52.operate on a status quo assumption. They are perfectly rational in what
:06:53. > :06:57.they are doing, but it is not what the reality will be. And about the
:06:58. > :07:00.experts? There was a great line, there is nothing so absurd that it
:07:01. > :07:04.has not been said by some philosopher. I think suspicion of
:07:05. > :07:08.experts goes back into antiquity and it is a very healthy thing to have.
:07:09. > :07:12.Experts, soothsayers, astrologers are all in very much the same
:07:13. > :07:17.category. Remain supporters say the Brexit vote hangs over everything.
:07:18. > :07:21.There are three problems that the Autumn Statement is trying to
:07:22. > :07:26.address. Brexit, Brexit and Brexit. Whether it is to do with business
:07:27. > :07:30.investment, trading prospects, or the kind of austerity that is now
:07:31. > :07:35.going to be continuing because of the hit to revenue and tax receipts
:07:36. > :07:38.we are going to see. It is going to cloud everything, no matter what
:07:39. > :07:43.government department you are in, no matter what area of the public
:07:44. > :07:46.services. From the moment he was appointed Chancellor, Philip Hammond
:07:47. > :07:50.always knew he would have to use this Autumn Statement to reset the
:07:51. > :07:55.economic dial after the Brexit vote. But the scale of the challenge was
:07:56. > :07:59.laid out in stark terms by the independent experts of the Office
:08:00. > :08:04.for Budget Responsibility, who said that by 2021, the UK's 2 trillion
:08:05. > :08:07.economy will be noticeably smaller than it would have been without the
:08:08. > :08:13.referendum and there will be a slowing in the pace of export and
:08:14. > :08:17.import growth over ten years. In a break with his predecessor, the
:08:18. > :08:21.Chancellor nodded to John Maynard Keynes, by announcing he would throw
:08:22. > :08:27.a protective arm around the economy by borrowing an extra 23 billion
:08:28. > :08:34.over the next five years to fund new investment projects. To some, this
:08:35. > :08:38.had a familiar feel. It is a sort of parallel universe, one of those
:08:39. > :08:42.sliding doors moments when you think, back at the last election, we
:08:43. > :08:47.were saying, as Labour, we would come in and balance the current
:08:48. > :08:50.budget, get it into surplus over the lifetime of the Parliament. It looks
:08:51. > :08:55.as though Philip Hammond and the Conservatives are not even going to
:08:56. > :09:00.be able to do that. So, one story in our house did come to an end today.
:09:01. > :09:04.George Osborne's grand plan to fix the roof by balancing the books was
:09:05. > :09:09.laid to rest, at least for the moment. The deficit will still be
:09:10. > :09:13.here until well into the next decade, and Britain's overall debt
:09:14. > :09:18.mountain is creeping ever upwards. So, modest measures today for the
:09:19. > :09:22.so-called Jams, people just about managing, and the Chancellor offered
:09:23. > :09:26.no guarantees beyond 2020 on two landmark spending pledges, the
:09:27. > :09:31.triple lock for pensioners and the ring fencing of the NHS budget. One
:09:32. > :09:36.Tory believes the party's fundamental goals remain on track.
:09:37. > :09:41.The trajectory set out by George Osborne has not at the precise time
:09:42. > :09:45.frame, but has been the right one. And Mr Hammond is continuing with
:09:46. > :09:49.that. The Tory principle of sound money retains its validity. Perhaps
:09:50. > :09:53.the plotline in our house will surprise us again. The experts have
:09:54. > :09:57.left open the possibility that the economy will eventually rebound. The
:09:58. > :10:03.fate of a generation of politicians will depend on how the story ends.
:10:04. > :10:04.David Gauke, the Chancellor's right-hand man
:10:05. > :10:17.Good evening to you. This 2.4% shrinkage in the economy, relative
:10:18. > :10:20.to if we had voted to remain in the referendum, is that the kind of
:10:21. > :10:24.figure you think is reasonable, a sensible figure to be planning? I
:10:25. > :10:29.think we have an independent body that makes the forecasts and I think
:10:30. > :10:32.it is sensible for the Government to work on the basis that the
:10:33. > :10:37.independent body has got it right. It is not out of line with most
:10:38. > :10:42.independent commentators. The Bank of England has a more pessimistic
:10:43. > :10:46.view on these things. So, I think we have to work on the basis that the
:10:47. > :10:51.OBR is right. It is their analysis, not ours, but we work on that basis.
:10:52. > :10:55.It is not that out of line with what the Treasury was saying the cost of
:10:56. > :11:01.Brexit was going to be before the referendum. Everybody said that was
:11:02. > :11:04.Project Fear. You must feel a little vindicated by seeing the OBR,
:11:05. > :11:07.independently, coming out after the referendum and coming up with a
:11:08. > :11:11.figure that wasn't quite as pessimistic as the Treasury one, but
:11:12. > :11:14.in the same ballpark? Flattley, I would rather we were in a position
:11:15. > :11:20.where the economy was growing very strongly. -- frankly. That is more
:11:21. > :11:23.important than the debate about who was right over what. But I don't
:11:24. > :11:28.think anybody should be surprised. Given that there is some
:11:29. > :11:31.uncertainty, a transitional period we would go through, that there
:11:32. > :11:36.would be a hit to growth of some scale, and the OBR have made their
:11:37. > :11:39.assessment. Some of your colleagues are saying this is too pessimistic,
:11:40. > :11:46.some of them have had less kind words about the OBR, these guys are
:11:47. > :11:49.Remainers, and all of that kind of stuff, would you tell them to shut
:11:50. > :11:55.up and we have to accept what the OBR says? You showed a clip from
:11:56. > :11:58.Jacob, and also from Iain Duncan Smith, and he said, well, Government
:11:59. > :12:04.has to prepare for the worst as well. In the end, as a Government,
:12:05. > :12:09.we have had to respond to what the OBR says. People are entitled to
:12:10. > :12:14.their opinion. I think in a year or two's time, we can look back and say
:12:15. > :12:18.he was right or wrong. One of the very striking things is that if you
:12:19. > :12:23.want to help the Jams, just about managing, the people who aren't even
:12:24. > :12:27.managing, Brexit, if we believe the OBR, swamps everything you're doing,
:12:28. > :12:32.doesn't it? You can tinker around the edges, but there is this great
:12:33. > :12:36.17 billion or so, 15 billion, caused by Brexit, which is so much more
:12:37. > :12:40.significant. I wonder why you don't say to those people, wouldn't you
:12:41. > :12:44.like to think again about Brexit? You are tempting me into rerunning
:12:45. > :12:50.the arguments about the referendum. We have a referendum, I was on the
:12:51. > :12:53.Remain side, but we lost. If I remember rightly, on the eve of the
:12:54. > :12:57.referendum, I think you made the point that the arguments were
:12:58. > :13:02.brought out to the British people about the economic risks, but also
:13:03. > :13:06.in terms of issues of immigration, and the argument were made, the
:13:07. > :13:09.British people made a decision, and we have to respect that and
:13:10. > :13:17.implement it. That is where we are, rather than trying to pick up the
:13:18. > :13:24.scab, pick up the wound and reopen that argument. Let's talk about the
:13:25. > :13:28.budget surplus target. This is a poster used during the last
:13:29. > :13:34.parliament. It was actually used in 2014, I think. Labour isn't
:13:35. > :13:40.learning, Labour still plan to increase debt by an extra ?3200 per
:13:41. > :13:45.person. We were trying to do the calculations. I don't know how that
:13:46. > :13:50.was populated, but 2018-19, your debt will be an extra ?4600 per
:13:51. > :13:59.person bigger than we were told at the general election, less than two
:14:00. > :14:02.years ago. Now... Do you want to apologise to the British people for
:14:03. > :14:07.the campaign that was run and the claims that were made at that time?
:14:08. > :14:12.No. Let's look at... Your question is predicated upon the OBR numbers
:14:13. > :14:17.that were set out today. You know, without wanting to go back to the
:14:18. > :14:21.referendum, I do think we need to understand what has changed. We
:14:22. > :14:25.fought the last general election with a pledge to get into surplus by
:14:26. > :14:28.the end of the parliament. What the office of budget response ability
:14:29. > :14:32.have said today is that we are not going to meet that pledge. They also
:14:33. > :14:38.say, if you look through the numbers, but for their analysis of
:14:39. > :14:42.the cost of Brexit, which would have delivered that in 2019-20, things
:14:43. > :14:48.have changed, circumstances have changed. The question is, how does
:14:49. > :14:52.the Government respond? In these new circumstances, you know, getting
:14:53. > :14:55.back to John Maynard Keynes, the facts have changed, circumstances
:14:56. > :15:01.have changed. Brexit is to blame? You would have made a surplus, but
:15:02. > :15:06.for Brexit? That is what the OBR are saying today. You would have had a
:15:07. > :15:10.small surplus at the end of the last election, and Brexit has more than
:15:11. > :15:14.wipe that out? That is what the OBR are saying.
:15:15. > :15:22.So you do not feel the need to apologise for the claims made? At
:15:23. > :15:26.the time, people said it would be very difficult for you to meet
:15:27. > :15:30.those. There is a sense now that Brexit is a bit of a cover for the
:15:31. > :15:36.fact that you don't have the stomach to deliver some of the decisions it
:15:37. > :15:43.would be necessary to make. As part of that OBR analysis today, what
:15:44. > :15:50.they show is, although I am not a moment saying that all of the of
:15:51. > :15:53.public finances is... But notwithstanding that, we still would
:15:54. > :16:04.have made that 2019-20 surplus number. So the question... Why don't
:16:05. > :16:07.you tell the people - you are accepting the OBR position. You need
:16:08. > :16:12.to tell the public that we would have had a surplus, except that you
:16:13. > :16:18.voted for Brexit. The Chancellor didn't spell that out that clearly
:16:19. > :16:22.today. He seemed to be disguising it, speaking about difficult
:16:23. > :16:26.circumstances, lower revenues and challenging growth. The public
:16:27. > :16:32.should be told. The OBR have done that. This is OBR numbers, not
:16:33. > :16:42.government numbers. This is what the OBR is saying. Brexit is the excuse?
:16:43. > :16:46.It's not the excuse. We have made some difficult decisions on spending
:16:47. > :16:50.which, over the course of the last six years, actually the spending
:16:51. > :16:57.side of things have been delivered. We haven't overspent. Let's have a
:16:58. > :17:01.look. This is the grass in my initial remarks. This is the way it
:17:02. > :17:07.has to fall during the rest of this Parliament. It didn't fall this
:17:08. > :17:13.year. We have held it flat, more or less. You are expecting it to fall
:17:14. > :17:18.by 7% to meet these new, softer ambitions. How on earth are you
:17:19. > :17:24.going to deliver 7% cuts in spending? If you can deliver 7%, why
:17:25. > :17:32.can you not do it this year? You are now expecting to make this plan. It
:17:33. > :17:36.is your plan for deficit reduction. One of the reasons why you have the
:17:37. > :17:41.pro for what this year is that we have front-loaded the extra money
:17:42. > :17:47.that has gone the NHS. But I come back to the point, look at what
:17:48. > :17:51.we've done over the last six years. Over the last year, you haven't
:17:52. > :17:55.managed to get spending down. The reason you have chucked money into
:17:56. > :18:00.the NHS this year is that you knew the thing was imploding if you
:18:01. > :18:08.didn't put money into it. It is in great difficulty. With the NHS, we
:18:09. > :18:12.are putting in ?10 billion over this Parliament. We decided to front-load
:18:13. > :18:20.it, and that is why that kink is there. The point I want to make is
:18:21. > :18:23.that, rightly, people are making the point that you are not reducing the
:18:24. > :18:28.deficit in the way that you said you would. That isn't because we have
:18:29. > :18:34.failed to deliver the spending cuts we set out. You can go back to the
:18:35. > :18:38.summer budget of 2010, we said, these are very, very difficult
:18:39. > :18:44.spending cuts. We have delivered. Over that period of time, we have
:18:45. > :18:48.seen eight out of ten children go to good or outstanding schools. Are you
:18:49. > :18:54.really telling me you can get 7% out over the next five years? You didn't
:18:55. > :18:59.mean to keep it flat this year. It had been intended to go down. This
:19:00. > :19:03.was the easiest year of the parliament, and you missed it.
:19:04. > :19:08.Everything is predicated on steeper falls than you failed to achieve
:19:09. > :19:15.this year, and that is our deficit reduction plan. You can look at the
:19:16. > :19:24.previous five years, where we successfully delivered on the
:19:25. > :19:29.departmental spending reductions. It gets harder, not easier, as time
:19:30. > :19:34.goes on. You have taken the low hanging fruit. Now you are going to
:19:35. > :19:39.get 7% with none of the low hanging fruit left, because you have picked
:19:40. > :19:44.it all in the last Parliament. Not necessarily. We are succeeding in
:19:45. > :19:48.building up more of a culture of spending control. You can make
:19:49. > :19:53.reforms to public services that bring long-term reforms. I used to
:19:54. > :20:00.be involved in HMRC, and they have done some fundamental reforms, and
:20:01. > :20:06.have reduced costs. They are collecting more in tax. In recent
:20:07. > :20:09.years, they have improved customer services as well. I do believe that
:20:10. > :20:12.public sector reform is possible, and you can get more for less. Thank
:20:13. > :20:15.you very much indeed. Obviously, the Labour Party has not
:20:16. > :20:18.been a supporter of the whole austerity strategy at all -
:20:19. > :20:20.and takes the view Would we now be borrowing less,
:20:21. > :20:24.if we had borrowed more Well, this was the jist
:20:25. > :20:27.of the criticism of Today, we have seen the very people
:20:28. > :20:30.the Prime Minister promised The Chancellor
:20:31. > :20:33.has failed to break with The country remains unprepared
:20:34. > :20:36.and ill-equipped to meet the challenges of Brexit,
:20:37. > :20:38.and secure Britain's future After all the sacrifices,
:20:39. > :20:44.after all the sacrifices people have made over the last six years,
:20:45. > :20:49.I fear today's statement has laid the foundations for
:20:50. > :20:54.more wasted years. Let's talk to Rebecca
:20:55. > :20:56.Long-Bailey for Labour. She's Shadow Chief Secretary
:20:57. > :21:08.to the Treasury. Do you think they have a plan
:21:09. > :21:13.forgetting the deficit down? We haven't seen one so far. They said
:21:14. > :21:20.they would eradicate the deficit by 2015. The figures we have seen today
:21:21. > :21:25.have been absolutely shocking. Do you think it is plausible they can
:21:26. > :21:30.cut spending in ways that are acceptable by the amount the OBR I
:21:31. > :21:37.says they are going to to make the books add up? Some of the points to
:21:38. > :21:43.note, and I was listening to your conversation with David, is that
:21:44. > :21:51.there was a lot of emphasis on Brexit. Over the ?122 billion a
:21:52. > :21:55.Mathilde deficit figure we are going to see by 2021, only part of that is
:21:56. > :22:00.attributable to Brexit. The rest of it is as a result of the
:22:01. > :22:05.government's mismanagement of finances. We don't think they have
:22:06. > :22:11.set up our economy for the future. You agree that borrowing is too high
:22:12. > :22:16.at the moment, and needs to come down. Not right away, but it has to
:22:17. > :22:23.come down. And you don't need a surplus. That was an ambitious
:22:24. > :22:27.target. Every government should aim for a surplus, but the strategy that
:22:28. > :22:33.the government put forward wasn't achievable. We pointed that out at
:22:34. > :22:39.the time. We are clearly borrowing way more than the surplus now. What
:22:40. > :22:43.has to happen to get that down? We are either spending too much all the
:22:44. > :22:48.tax too little. Which one do you think it is? There's a number of
:22:49. > :22:54.factors involved. If Labour had been in power since 2010, we wouldn't be
:22:55. > :22:59.in the situation we are in today, because we would have invested in
:23:00. > :23:05.infrastructure and industry, and provided the higher paid jobs that
:23:06. > :23:09.return to the Exchequer in taxes. We would have clamped down on tax
:23:10. > :23:14.avoidance. There's very little in terms of action from the government
:23:15. > :23:19.on that front. So you would have had more growth and more investment. You
:23:20. > :23:24.would have borrowed more, and we would have less borrowing now as a
:23:25. > :23:29.result. So we started with a higher level of borrowing that you are
:23:30. > :23:37.comfortable with. -- venue were. What is your plan for eradicating a
:23:38. > :23:45.surplus? Let's say you want to do it by 2025? What is your plan? Tax
:23:46. > :23:50.increases? You separate your capital spending from your public spending,
:23:51. > :23:55.which forms part of our fiscal credibility plan. In terms of public
:23:56. > :24:01.spending, your tax receipts, I think we need a more efficient tax system.
:24:02. > :24:06.A number of decisions that were taken by the government, such as
:24:07. > :24:14.cutting capital corporate games tax, were not the right decisions to
:24:15. > :24:28.take. The cuts in terms of Universal Credit in particular, who are sick
:24:29. > :24:31.and disabled, there are more responsible tax decisions that you
:24:32. > :24:37.can take. We would not have slashed the areas they have slashed so far.
:24:38. > :24:47.We need a more progressive tax system. Not necessarily more tax,
:24:48. > :24:51.but... Let me give you an example. There's a number of tax reliefs that
:24:52. > :24:56.the government applied to a number of different groups. At the last
:24:57. > :25:01.count, I asked for statistics from the government, and they had over
:25:02. > :25:07.200 tax relief they could provide no economic data on at all. We do not
:25:08. > :25:10.know if they are efficient or if they are helping individuals. We
:25:11. > :25:16.need to assess our current tax base to make sure that is working
:25:17. > :25:25.efficiently. Pension triple lock, Philip Hammond hinted that that
:25:26. > :25:30.needed to be looked at. Would you also abandoned the pension triple
:25:31. > :25:36.lock? I think it is shocking. Pensioners are being sold out by
:25:37. > :25:40.this government. Pensions need to be looked at very carefully, because
:25:41. > :25:45.people signed up to a social contract with the government. Some
:25:46. > :25:51.women have had the goalposts moved. It's not acceptable. The government
:25:52. > :25:55.needs to take a responsible approach and realise that people need to be
:25:56. > :26:01.sustained in their old age. Another point is about social care. There
:26:02. > :26:04.was nothing today about social care in the Autumn Statement, and I was
:26:05. > :26:09.shocked because I know the government came under a lot of
:26:10. > :26:16.pressure. If we are talking about care that is attributable to the
:26:17. > :26:18.older generation, they have been sold out on this. Thank you very
:26:19. > :26:20.much indeed. Thomas Mair, the killer of MP
:26:21. > :26:24.Jo Cox, was given a whole-life The case details make grim reading -
:26:25. > :26:27.the horrible specifics of the crime itself,
:26:28. > :26:29.the descriptions of the weapons in his possession,
:26:30. > :26:31.and his white supremacist ethos. Jo Cox's husband Brendan
:26:32. > :26:33.called the murder "an act of terrorism" and said that,
:26:34. > :26:36.while it was driven by hatred, it had instead created
:26:37. > :26:38.an outpouring of love. He said he hopes her
:26:39. > :26:40.death has meaning. Well, in a year of acrid political
:26:41. > :26:42.discourse around the world, the meaning may lie in attempts
:26:43. > :26:45.to reduce the poison. A few weeks ago, Jo was taken
:26:46. > :26:55.from us, and our lives collapsed. It's still hard to comprehend
:26:56. > :26:58.the magnitude of what happened in There may have been one act
:26:59. > :27:05.of extreme cowardice on that day, Thomas Mair was found guilty
:27:06. > :27:13.at almost exactly the same time Outside the Old Bailey,
:27:14. > :27:20.Jo Cox's family welcomed the verdict The killing of Jo was a political
:27:21. > :27:30.act, an act of terrorism, but in the history of such acts,
:27:31. > :27:33.it was perhaps the most An act driven by hatred,
:27:34. > :27:40.which instead has created An act designed to drive communities
:27:41. > :27:47.apart, which has instead An act designed to silence a voice,
:27:48. > :27:52.which instead has allowed millions Thomas Mair's house in Birstall
:27:53. > :27:58.is a bleak place. Inside, he picked his victim
:27:59. > :28:02.and researched how to kill her. When police searched
:28:03. > :28:06.Thomas Mair's house here, they found it stuffed full
:28:07. > :28:08.of far-right literature We also know that he
:28:09. > :28:14.shouted "Britain First!" So to say that this had nothing
:28:15. > :28:20.to do with politics is clearly absurd,
:28:21. > :28:24.but what is the responsibility of any of our political discourse
:28:25. > :28:28.for what happened here? Thomas Mair refused to answer that,
:28:29. > :28:34.as well as all other questions. Do you belong to any
:28:35. > :28:36.political parties? He offered no defence,
:28:37. > :28:39.and refused to enter After the verdict, his request
:28:40. > :28:43.to address the court What this trial and this
:28:44. > :28:47.conviction have shown us is that there are some nasty,
:28:48. > :28:50.poisonous undercurrents in British society -
:28:51. > :28:54.but there always have been. Thomas Mair is not typical
:28:55. > :28:57.of everybody who voted Leave. But amongst those who voted Leave,
:28:58. > :29:06.there are some nasty currents. The police meticulously catalogued
:29:07. > :29:10.Thomas Mair's obsessive hatred. For Jo Cox's family, her death meant
:29:11. > :29:13.profound personal grief. But, they said, that shouldn't
:29:14. > :29:17.obscure the political The murder of a sitting
:29:18. > :29:21.MP would have stopped the nation at any time,
:29:22. > :29:24.but Jo Cox was killed towards the end of a frantic, excited,
:29:25. > :29:29.often angry referendum campaign. To reflect on the nature
:29:30. > :29:36.of our political system, the way we talk to each other,
:29:37. > :29:39.the way we treat opponents. Now her killer has been brought
:29:40. > :29:42.to justice, how much, We live in quite difficult
:29:43. > :29:52.political times. You've seen Brexit, you've seen
:29:53. > :29:56.the election of Trump. I think there is quite
:29:57. > :29:59.a feeling of the people vs the establishment,
:30:00. > :30:03.vs the politicians. But this was a horrific one-off
:30:04. > :30:07.event, and I don't think there are particular lessons
:30:08. > :30:10.to learn from it, except that people obviously have to take care
:30:11. > :30:12.of their staff's safety and their own safety,
:30:13. > :30:17.and act sensibly. Mercifully, these things happen
:30:18. > :30:37.very, very irregularly. You've got to keep a reasonably calm
:30:38. > :30:39.head, but also look at the underlying causes of volatility. I
:30:40. > :30:43.do think social media is part of this. We have, as it were, got in
:30:44. > :30:50.touch with our inner barbarians through social media. Lots of us
:30:51. > :30:53.thought that we had some rather strange and perhaps unpalatable
:30:54. > :30:57.opinions, but probably nobody else did. We have now discovered lots of
:30:58. > :31:01.other people, millions of other people have the same strange and
:31:02. > :31:02.unpalatable opinions. It has given encouragement, it has given strength
:31:03. > :31:05.to the morale of the barbarians. means the end of
:31:06. > :31:08.the immediate trauma. I will channel my energy
:31:09. > :31:10.into ensuring that And, as a family, we will respond
:31:11. > :31:15.with strength, love, Strength and love for each other,
:31:16. > :31:22.and positivity and enthusiasm for the principles Jo believed in -
:31:23. > :31:24.compassion, tolerance, and acceptance, understanding,
:31:25. > :31:26.and a determination to continue The media attention
:31:27. > :31:36.will now disperse. However, Jo Cox's death
:31:37. > :31:39.is unlikely to be forgotten I'm now joined in the studio
:31:40. > :31:51.by one of Jo Cox's closest friends in Parliament,
:31:52. > :32:01.Labour MP Alison McGovern. Thanks for coming in. It was a
:32:02. > :32:09.predictable verdict. What was your reaction when you heard? I suppose a
:32:10. > :32:15.sense that it's over and that's a positive thing in some way. But
:32:16. > :32:19.absolute determination that Jo's legacy, it's not about how she died,
:32:20. > :32:25.it's about how she lived. Jo was somebody who approached the world
:32:26. > :32:30.with love and compassion, and who had a lesson for us all in how to
:32:31. > :32:39.get things done in politics, which was not to work from the sidelines,
:32:40. > :32:43.but for enthusiastically fighting for what you believe in. There are a
:32:44. > :32:46.lot of people, in the Labour Party and across all political parties,
:32:47. > :32:50.who are thinking tonight about how they can be more like her. In a way,
:32:51. > :32:54.you have answered a question of how we should think of the murder. Is
:32:55. > :32:59.there something significant about this man? If he had any aim in his
:33:00. > :33:06.act, he has totally failed. That hate that clearly drove him, in some
:33:07. > :33:10.sense, was met with this massive outpouring of love. You know, the
:33:11. > :33:16.messages that have been received by everybody, the determination that
:33:17. > :33:20.the British public showed, that we would say this is not what our
:33:21. > :33:24.country is really like. Actually, we are people that listen to each other
:33:25. > :33:29.and who are full of acceptance for each other, and the value diversity.
:33:30. > :33:32.So, in fact, the outcome has been the complete opposite of what he
:33:33. > :33:37.might have hoped for. There was that outpouring of love, everybody
:33:38. > :33:44.remembers those days very clearly. Has anything changed? Do you think,
:33:45. > :33:48.in fact, people have the discourse? We have been reminded of how not to
:33:49. > :33:53.do it? Or do you think the discourse, if anything, has got more
:33:54. > :33:56.virulent and acrid over the year? I think it was actually George
:33:57. > :34:01.Osborne, when he cancelled his speech at Mansion House to pay
:34:02. > :34:05.tribute to Jo, said she had changed government policy. I think that is a
:34:06. > :34:10.demonstration of what can be achieved if you stand up for what
:34:11. > :34:15.you believe in. I know lots of people who ask me about Jo and who
:34:16. > :34:19.want to follow her example. We will all take forward the causes she
:34:20. > :34:24.believes in, whether it is Rachel Reeves leading on loneliness, on
:34:25. > :34:31.Syria, Andrew, in the film, and I will continue to fight for civilian
:34:32. > :34:34.protection. The world can be changed and I and others will not give in to
:34:35. > :34:38.a counsel of despair. We will continue to stand for the principles
:34:39. > :34:43.Jo believed in. The politics of hate has been a big issue. In the States,
:34:44. > :34:47.it has been an issue, an increase in hate attacks, the Trump election has
:34:48. > :34:53.led to more division. When it comes to that, do you see it in a way that
:34:54. > :34:59.some of the people in that piece did, as a particular feature of what
:35:00. > :35:03.we call the alt-right, the extreme right, or, in as far as it is a
:35:04. > :35:08.problem, it goes a bit more widely? I think there is an old story here.
:35:09. > :35:12.At times of economic trouble, at times of difficulty, it is very easy
:35:13. > :35:16.for some in politics to exploit the fear and insecurity that people feel
:35:17. > :35:20.and say, no, your troubles are not because of economic saw the
:35:21. > :35:24.Government, they are because people just like you, who happened to be
:35:25. > :35:29.foreigners, or whatever the language is that they use. It is incumbent on
:35:30. > :35:33.those of us who believe that people are basically, underneath it all,
:35:34. > :35:36.the same, and have the same hopes and dreams and aspirations, to stand
:35:37. > :35:41.up for what we believe in and say, actually, that hate will not get us
:35:42. > :35:45.anywhere. That is not who we are. It is not what we believe in. We do
:35:46. > :35:50.things differently. We will all take care of each other. That, in the
:35:51. > :35:55.end, is the answer to that hate. We stand up to it with love. A very
:35:56. > :36:02.quick one. MP safety became a bit of an issue after this. Has anything
:36:03. > :36:07.changed on that? Have measures being taken behind the scenes? Of course.
:36:08. > :36:13.In fact, what was shocking was that Jo was in the place where most of us
:36:14. > :36:17.would feel we were most safe, in the heart of our constituencies. Of
:36:18. > :36:20.course, people have thought through security and safety. But the police
:36:21. > :36:27.and others are very good and make sure that us and, more importantly,
:36:28. > :36:29.our staff are really safe. They take care of us well.
:36:30. > :36:32.These occasions tend to be very political -
:36:33. > :36:35.it's tempting to say that today's was less so.
:36:36. > :36:40.But, in a funny sort of way, that is politics too.
:36:41. > :36:43.The Chancellor, wanting to adopt what looks like a more sober tone.
:36:44. > :36:46.He managed a few jokes, although perhaps aimed
:36:47. > :36:48.at Westminster and unlikely to get the folks of Middlesbrough guffawing
:36:49. > :36:54.So, how is the public feeling right now at our post-Brexit prospects?
:36:55. > :36:59.Katie Razzall is in Middlesbrough, as it happens - Middlesbrough South,
:37:00. > :37:05.a Labour constituency that the Tories might hope to gain.
:37:06. > :37:13.She has been listening to how people are feeling about the future.
:37:14. > :37:23.I have been here now for about four weeks. Basically boarding and
:37:24. > :37:27.plastering. Tough work? Yeah. Jonathan Skelton moved into our
:37:28. > :37:33.strength after he lost his job, when the steelworks closed at Redcar.
:37:34. > :37:36.When I was employed at SSI, you didn't have to worry, you have a
:37:37. > :37:44.regular wage. Now it is much more difficult. I have two kids to
:37:45. > :37:50.support. You continue to worry about money. I'll go without, if it means
:37:51. > :37:56.my kids have another. In amongst the younger students, he and a group of
:37:57. > :38:02.redundant steelworkers were being retrained. All of them supported
:38:03. > :38:06.Brexit. How many of you are voting Out? According to George Osborne, we
:38:07. > :38:10.are supposed to be in a recession now, not a depression. All of the
:38:11. > :38:15.scaremongering, the country is thriving, as far as I can see. In
:38:16. > :38:19.2014, the OBR forecast growth to slow... This radio is usually tuned
:38:20. > :38:25.to music. Today we tended to politics. All of a sudden they can
:38:26. > :38:29.produce billions of pounds, one minute they are telling us they have
:38:30. > :38:34.no money to do anything with, then they invest ?23 billion on
:38:35. > :38:38.something. What are they take us for, fools? The stark predictions of
:38:39. > :38:41.the cost Brexit fall on deaf ears here. Good news for the
:38:42. > :38:47.Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn and his team are not popular with his
:38:48. > :38:49.one-time Labour voter. I will not vote Labour again, as long as they
:38:50. > :38:56.are in charge. Theresa May shows you she's thinking of you, do you think
:38:57. > :39:00.you could go her way? Yes, 100%. I didn't think I would ever say that.
:39:01. > :39:03.Even in a place traditionally considered a Labour heartland, there
:39:04. > :39:08.are seats that the Conservatives want to win. One of the
:39:09. > :39:11.Middlesbrough constituencies is high on their target list for the next
:39:12. > :39:16.general election. It is voters hear the Government needs to convince if
:39:17. > :39:19.it wants a real majority next time. The end of the rainbow was right
:39:20. > :39:27.over Redcar. My thought was, Redcar needs a pot of gold. It is a
:39:28. > :39:33.volunteer group, we have taken on many of the gardens the council used
:39:34. > :39:36.to do. In a region hard-hit by cuts to public services, the Chancellor
:39:37. > :39:40.today talked up job creation in the north-east. But that hasn't filtered
:39:41. > :39:45.through around here. There are people that are really struggling
:39:46. > :39:52.because there are few jobs, a lot of them are part-time jobs, and a lot
:39:53. > :39:56.of them are low paid jobs. They are not permanent jobs, either. When you
:39:57. > :40:00.saw Theresa May on the steps of Downing Street, and heard what she
:40:01. > :40:07.said, did you believe her? I wanted to believe her. But the people of
:40:08. > :40:17.the north-east believe that we are a neglected area and Tayside
:40:18. > :40:24.especially that. -- Teesside. Who doesn't like getting hit by swords?
:40:25. > :40:28.It keeps me fit. There are no cuts here, strictly foil. The Chancellor
:40:29. > :40:31.talked about a resilient economy, despite gloomy forecasts. But
:40:32. > :40:39.uncertainty is hitting home. A bit concerned about my job. There are
:40:40. > :40:45.cuts coming in where I work. They are focused on saving money, because
:40:46. > :40:48.the income coming in has started to decline. We haven't noticed a
:40:49. > :40:53.massive drop yet, but it does seem to be kind of dropping. The freeze
:40:54. > :41:01.on petrol duty was a good idea. I think it will help people, it will
:41:02. > :41:04.help stabilise the slight increase in costs we are seeing coming
:41:05. > :41:12.through on supermarkets and luxuries, things like that. I have
:41:13. > :41:17.been piercing for about ten years now. I absolutely love it. I can't
:41:18. > :41:20.see myself having another job. For me, it is making somebody happier in
:41:21. > :41:26.their own skin than they were before. It is so much fun. Kim
:41:27. > :41:29.Hutchinson works at Skins And Needles tattoo studio in
:41:30. > :41:34.Hillsborough. Like many of the artists in this booming industry,
:41:35. > :41:39.she is self-employed. So the Conservative attempt to target the
:41:40. > :41:43.just about managing resonates with her. I think the Jams is accurate,
:41:44. > :41:48.not struggling but not rolling in it. For a lot of people, we are in
:41:49. > :41:51.an uncertain time. While people might feel they are comfortable
:41:52. > :41:55.right now, they don't know what will happen next month. Brexit has a lot
:41:56. > :42:00.to do with it. The exchange rate has had a lot of affect on me. I buy a
:42:01. > :42:03.lot of things from America, from Europe. We are keeping such a close
:42:04. > :42:07.check on exchange rates. We are trying to look for a slight drop
:42:08. > :42:16.before we place an order so that we can save a little bit that way. We
:42:17. > :42:19.want to be a world leader... Back-up the building site, Jonathan Skelton
:42:20. > :42:28.has endured almost an hour of financial announcements. Brexit and
:42:29. > :42:34.death forecasts don't worry him. We are already in big debt anyway. But
:42:35. > :42:39.bigger debt? What difference will it make? We knew it would be a long and
:42:40. > :42:42.drawn-out process. As for the notion that the Brexit debt could cost
:42:43. > :42:48.almost the same as the League campaign claimed we could get back
:42:49. > :42:54.and pay into the NHS? We would continue to pay 350 million in the
:42:55. > :42:59.EU for however many years, I think it is a small price to pay until we
:43:00. > :43:02.get back on our feet. We are a resilient country, resilient people.
:43:03. > :43:05.We will get there, we fight. We always do. We are British.
:43:06. > :43:07.Let's talk now to Rupert Harrison, former Chief of Staff
:43:08. > :43:10.to George Osborne and now Managing Director at Blackrock,
:43:11. > :43:16.Stephen Glover from the Daily Mail, and Polly Toynbee from the Guardian.
:43:17. > :43:23.Let's take a look at the front page of the Daily Mail. You have taken an
:43:24. > :43:30.optimistic view, so much for Mr gloomy? Yesterday, an upbeat
:43:31. > :43:37.Chancellor predicted growth, pity about the terrifying debt. Did you
:43:38. > :43:40.feel that optimistic? I think it was a reasonably happy day. The
:43:41. > :43:44.Chancellor has been very gloomy until almost a day before yesterday.
:43:45. > :43:47.I suspect the pro-minister had been sitting on him and he made an
:43:48. > :43:50.attempt to be upbeat as possible. He spoke about a resilient British
:43:51. > :43:57.economy. He said there would be 500,000 new jobs by 2020. The growth
:43:58. > :44:04.figures he outlined are not as good as they have been, but not too bad.
:44:05. > :44:09.1.4 next year, 1.7 the year after, and then back to about two. He said
:44:10. > :44:13.this year we would be the fastest-growing G7 economy. The OBR,
:44:14. > :44:17.to be clear, I had wondered whether your line would be that OBR the
:44:18. > :44:21.enemies of the people, coming up with a gloomy forecast because it is
:44:22. > :44:27.the revenge of the expert. But that is not your... You accept what the
:44:28. > :44:30.OBR are saying? The OBR itself is doubtful about it. And it should be.
:44:31. > :44:34.It has got things are so consistently wrong and it is more
:44:35. > :44:39.than usually difficult when it does not know the terms of Brexit. They
:44:40. > :44:44.know it is going to be difficult. Polly? Well, it's a disaster.
:44:45. > :44:47.Everything that Project Fear said is more or less turning out to be
:44:48. > :44:55.right. You are right, nobody knows exactly how these forecasts are
:44:56. > :45:00.going. But the small c Conservatives have been very cautious. They are
:45:01. > :45:05.assuming we are still in the single market and being quite positive. It
:45:06. > :45:11.is going to mean ?830 per year, on average, people are going to lose.
:45:12. > :45:15.Hammond himself said that people didn't vote to be poorer. I wonder
:45:16. > :45:18.whether, when it sinks in, it will take a while, probably not until the
:45:19. > :45:22.end of next year, people are going to say, they never told us that we
:45:23. > :45:27.were going to vote to be poorer, and whether they are going to feel it
:45:28. > :45:31.was a bad mistake. We have a budget that is really a fantasy, as you
:45:32. > :45:35.keep saying, the idea we are going to get 7% more cuts, unthinkable.
:45:36. > :45:41.Nothing in the budget for health, nothing for social care.
:45:42. > :45:50.Rupert, those are the same spending projections that work there when
:45:51. > :45:55.you... Do you believe, moving on from Brexiting, that we can now get
:45:56. > :46:03.roaring down to those cuts in spending. Of course we can. A
:46:04. > :46:08.majority was won in the last election. The OBR were in quite a
:46:09. > :46:14.difficult position, as a nonpolitical body. But it has been
:46:15. > :46:19.handled with a characteristically shrewd approach. He has positioned
:46:20. > :46:27.himself in a slightly more optimistic position than the Bank of
:46:28. > :46:33.England and other forecasters. Stephen, your paper does say, pity
:46:34. > :46:38.about the terrifying debt. You clearly don't want us to sit at
:46:39. > :46:46.borrowing 4% of GDP forever. Of course not. What is your view on how
:46:47. > :46:49.to get out of this? Spending is slightly higher over the next four
:46:50. > :46:54.years than it was in the March budget. Indeed, because they feel
:46:55. > :47:02.they are not going to be able to do it. We do not know the terms of
:47:03. > :47:07.Brexit. I think that the 1.4% growth forecast next year is unduly
:47:08. > :47:13.pessimistic. If we grew by 2% next year, then all of these figures
:47:14. > :47:18.about having a hole of ?59 billion will be thrown into a different
:47:19. > :47:23.perspective. We are looking into the unknown. Forecasters should have a
:47:24. > :47:28.humility. In May, we were promised by George Osborne that there would
:47:29. > :47:33.be a profound shock to the economy if people voted for Brexit. That
:47:34. > :47:40.hasn't happened. Far from it. The British economy is doing well. Did
:47:41. > :47:48.the experts get it wrong? I agree for the need for humility, but we
:47:49. > :47:52.have to have it from both sides. The short-term forecasters were wrong.
:47:53. > :47:59.The early indications, as the OBR pointed out, of inward investment
:48:00. > :48:04.and so on, those are starting to come off more in the way that was
:48:05. > :48:08.predicted. But it is incredibly early days. Stephen's plan is that
:48:09. > :48:16.he doesn't really believe the OBR figures, so that warring would be so
:48:17. > :48:24.bad. But it could be worse. Of course it could, but it's not
:48:25. > :48:30.likely. Are we a nation who has a structural deficit, which we have
:48:31. > :48:35.had for ten years now, so are we undertaxed, or are we overspending?
:48:36. > :48:42.We are a nation that is always saying it wants Swedish services on
:48:43. > :48:49.US tax rates. The plan that you and George Osborne have hatched is to
:48:50. > :48:55.keep the state shrinking, down to 35 or 36%. It is still on that
:48:56. > :49:02.trajectory, but will take rather longer. Spending is still above 40%
:49:03. > :49:07.of GDP, which is part of the long-term average. It is not a
:49:08. > :49:14.catastrophic level of spending. But the idea is to get it down to around
:49:15. > :49:19.35% eventually. The idea that we should cut and cut again, a country
:49:20. > :49:24.where our public services have become thinner, shabbier and more
:49:25. > :49:27.wretched, the idea that you can take 12 billion in benefit cuts of the
:49:28. > :49:34.lower half, I cannot understand why you did that. Why didn't you take it
:49:35. > :49:40.off the broader shoulders if you wanted to make those cuts? The
:49:41. > :49:44.deficit reduction plan has been spread extremely broadly across the
:49:45. > :49:49.population. At a time where businesses around us are
:49:50. > :49:51.transforming the way we live our lives, this defeatism about the idea
:49:52. > :49:59.that the government cannot do anything like that is ludicrous.
:50:00. > :50:04.It's not government, it is people. People who are working very hard...
:50:05. > :50:11.There are savings in the way we do things. Why take 12 billion of
:50:12. > :50:15.things like Universal Credit is, meant to help people, and instead
:50:16. > :50:21.you have cut corporation tax is, that was in your plan... The reason
:50:22. > :50:27.why public spending has been difficult to cut is because
:50:28. > :50:31.demographics, health spending and pensioners, are making it very hard
:50:32. > :50:37.to get the state down to where it was in the 1950s. What would be your
:50:38. > :50:42.plan, if they have to find more cuts in spending? The pension triple
:50:43. > :50:48.lock? I have no idea what the government would do. I hope it will
:50:49. > :50:55.not be necessary. That could be the motto of the Day! It is clearly
:50:56. > :50:56.impossible. None of it is true or going to happen. Thank you very
:50:57. > :51:05.much. Stay tuned for No Such
:51:06. > :51:17.Thing As The News. A very quiet prospect for the next
:51:18. > :51:18.few