:00:10. > :00:24.After years of war, are we finally seeing the endgame in Syria?
:00:25. > :00:29.I trusted them 100 metres, not more. Anyone they see, they would shoot
:00:30. > :00:32.him immediately. With a ceasefire now
:00:33. > :00:33.apparently in place, we're devoting the whole
:00:34. > :00:35.of tonight's Newsnight to Syria. Is Assad now on the brink of victory
:00:36. > :00:44.in the Syrian civil war? Is the international
:00:45. > :00:46.order being reshaped, And could anything have
:00:47. > :01:01.been done to stop this? Are you truly incapable of shame? Is
:01:02. > :01:12.there literally nothing that can shame you? Is there no act of
:01:13. > :01:16.barbarism against civilians, no execution of a child that gets under
:01:17. > :01:19.your skin? That creeps you add a little bit?
:01:20. > :01:22.Strong words from the Americans, but is it too late for Aleppo?
:01:23. > :01:25.We'll attempt to answer these questions with the help of experts,
:01:26. > :01:34.politicians, and witnesses on the ground.
:01:35. > :01:39.The House of Commons heard today that doctors in improvised clinics
:01:40. > :01:42.in the Syrian city of Aleppo are wearing boots because there
:01:43. > :01:49.Their surviving patients are, in many ways, the lucky ones.
:01:50. > :01:51.According to the United Nations, pro-Government forces in the East
:01:52. > :01:54.of the city have been killing civilians, among them
:01:55. > :02:01.women and children, in their homes and on the streets.
:02:02. > :02:02.Streets which the UN's Human Rights office described
:02:03. > :02:07.The rebels, who have held the East of the city for four years,
:02:08. > :02:17.Tonight, as Russian's UN ambassador said a ceasefire was in place
:02:18. > :02:26.and a deal allowing them to leave the city would be enacted
:02:27. > :02:28.within hours, we ask whether that defeat would signal
:02:29. > :02:32.of the Syrian civil war and deliver victory to the Russian
:02:33. > :02:33.and Iranian-backed President Bashar Al-Assad.
:02:34. > :02:36.And does Vladimir Putin's crucial role signal a further
:02:37. > :02:38.crystallisation of lasting change to the established world order?
:02:39. > :02:42.We will also consider whether the West, most obviously
:02:43. > :02:45.the UK and Barack Obama's America, could have - even should have -
:02:46. > :02:53.done more to staunch the flow of civilian blood.
:02:54. > :02:55.Before social media, a besieged city would trap not just
:02:56. > :03:04.Now, as pro-government forces advance on Eastern Aleppo,
:03:05. > :03:39.horror stories seep out like blood under a locked door.
:03:40. > :03:42.To everyone who can hear me, we are here exposed to a genocide
:03:43. > :03:51.More than 50,000 civilians who rebelled against the dictator
:03:52. > :03:57.Al Assad are threatened with field executions or dying under bombing.
:03:58. > :04:02.These people, shown on Syrian television, appear able to escape.
:04:03. > :04:08.However, not everyone encircled by pro-government forces feels it's
:04:09. > :04:17.We are close to them, maybe 300 metres, not more.
:04:18. > :04:19.They capture any neighbourhood, first thing they do,
:04:20. > :04:27.They entered this building, anyone they see, anyone they see,
:04:28. > :04:33.Anyone they see they will shoot them, immediately.
:04:34. > :04:36.We cannot of course independently verify any of this, but the physical
:04:37. > :04:43.Aleppo's medieval fortifications blown apart by modern war.
:04:44. > :04:46.The UN is convinced that what is happening here is - quote -
:04:47. > :04:54.The reports we've had are both being shot in the street or trying
:04:55. > :05:06.Obviously people are being killed by the incredibly intense
:05:07. > :05:12.So we've also had reports that, you know, bodies lying
:05:13. > :05:15.in the streets and people unable to pick up those
:05:16. > :05:21.Because of the intensity of the bombardment and the fear,
:05:22. > :05:29.This is the image that the Syrian government wants the world to see,
:05:30. > :05:33.grateful residents returning to a liberated city.
:05:34. > :05:36.We don't know how many people, though, are left
:05:37. > :05:42.As the remaining rebel fighters are squeezed into a smaller
:05:43. > :05:45.and smaller footprint, so the suffering of the civilians
:05:46. > :05:50.The civilians are stuck in a very small area that doesn't exceed
:05:51. > :06:02.Tonight at the UN, Russia - which supports the Syrian government
:06:03. > :06:13.The counterterrorism operation in Aleppo,
:06:14. > :06:17.announced Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, will conclude in the next few hours.
:06:18. > :06:19.The battle for Aleppo, four years of grinding,
:06:20. > :06:22.bloody conflict, looks like it might be about to end, in victory
:06:23. > :06:31.for the Assad government and their Russian backers.
:06:32. > :06:36.David Crossman reporting on the events of today. Time to turn our
:06:37. > :06:38.attention to tonight. Our chief international
:06:39. > :06:50.correspondent Lyse Doucet has been Lyse, no shortage of contradiction
:06:51. > :06:55.or confusion, what can we say of the latest developments with confidence?
:06:56. > :07:02.We can say with confidence that the rebellion in east Aleppo is over, a
:07:03. > :07:09.rebellion which began in July 2012 and which at one point in the years
:07:10. > :07:12.that followed seemed at the point of capturing all Aleppo to the point
:07:13. > :07:16.that a pro-government command of militia told me last week that in
:07:17. > :07:22.Aleppo they had been reduced to only three streets. What a turnaround for
:07:23. > :07:27.the Syrian army and its allies, most importantly Russia, and an array of
:07:28. > :07:32.militias backed by Iran, it is a huge victory, the most significant
:07:33. > :07:38.of the war, for the Syrian government, for President Bashir
:07:39. > :07:40.al-Assad. But the future of Aleppo, a city divided, shredded, where
:07:41. > :07:57.kilometre after kilometre, new you drive to the east
:07:58. > :07:59.of the city, or that there are streets drained of life and colour,
:08:00. > :08:03.haunted by the memories of what has gone on in the past four years. What
:08:04. > :08:05.we do know is that tomorrow morning, if it is on time, the fighters and
:08:06. > :08:07.their family will leave the battlefields of Aleppo, leave their
:08:08. > :08:11.dreams and defiance behind and go to the city of Idlib in the West and
:08:12. > :08:15.the stunner opposition control or go north to fight another day in the
:08:16. > :08:17.area controlled by Turkish fighters and Turkish troops. Lyse Doucet,
:08:18. > :08:24.thank you. Lord Ashdown was the UN
:08:25. > :08:26.High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in the aftermath
:08:27. > :08:30.of their civil war. First, Bashar Farahat fled to Syria
:08:31. > :08:42.in 2013 and arrived in the UK Bashar, it is harrowing enough to
:08:43. > :08:47.see such pictures from a country one has never visited. What is it like
:08:48. > :08:55.to see such pictures from one's home? We are used to watching these
:08:56. > :09:01.pictures, and fortunately, this ongoing massacre for six years, it
:09:02. > :09:08.is sometimes getting to the point where it hits the top news. It has
:09:09. > :09:14.been the same since 2011, the killing of our people every single
:09:15. > :09:18.day. The Assad regime killing them. Aleppo is my city and I spent quite
:09:19. > :09:25.a lot of time in Aleppo and it is a disaster. We expected Aleppo, the
:09:26. > :09:30.resistance to fall down and to end but we always expected that it might
:09:31. > :09:35.be the same as what happened in a different areas of Syria, at least
:09:36. > :09:43.keeping a safe passage for civilians to survive, and what is going on now
:09:44. > :09:47.is a massacre and they are not giving any opportunity for these
:09:48. > :09:53.people to survive. Have you been in touch with the people in the city
:09:54. > :09:56.recently? Yes, I have many friends there and colleagues who used to
:09:57. > :10:03.work in the hospital there, trying to help people, and hospitals of
:10:04. > :10:10.course have been targeted for a long time, so there are no working
:10:11. > :10:13.hospitals for two or three weeks. Today I could be in touch with a
:10:14. > :10:20.colleague who is a medical doctor there. And he just could say that he
:10:21. > :10:24.is still alive. And all our colleagues and friends are sending
:10:25. > :10:30.their very last messages knowing that they will die at any moment.
:10:31. > :10:36.They expect to die at the hands of government forces? Yes. After
:10:37. > :10:42.hearing of filmed executions, killing people who fled to resume
:10:43. > :10:48.areas, no one wants to experience that, to be detained, tortured, or
:10:49. > :10:53.killed by militias, they preferred to die where they belong, to die in
:10:54. > :10:59.their homes and their hospitals with their loved ones. There is no
:11:00. > :11:04.optimism, for want of a better word, to be derived from this apparent
:11:05. > :11:12.ceasefire announced tonight? We hope so. I think there is always
:11:13. > :11:18.optimism, we are speaking about ours and every single hour hundreds of
:11:19. > :11:22.people are being killed, but if I speak of 50,000 people trapped in
:11:23. > :11:26.two or three square kilometres, every bomb could cause a massacre,
:11:27. > :11:32.so the optimism of a ceasefire tomorrow might cause 20,000, 30,000,
:11:33. > :11:35.we don't know commit huge numbers, the civil defence yesterday could
:11:36. > :11:38.not count the number of people killed, the bodies on the streets.
:11:39. > :11:47.They could not count them. So are speaking about tens of people being
:11:48. > :11:52.killed every single hour. Bashar Farahat, many thanks indeed for your
:11:53. > :11:56.time. Paddy Ashdown, it is stating the obvious to say that some people
:11:57. > :12:00.watching will feel some desperate need to do something. Is there
:12:01. > :12:07.anything that we could have done or could do now? James, listening to
:12:08. > :12:18.Bashar, it is impossible to find words, you ask what is going on in
:12:19. > :12:22.the ground, the answer is that it is an trained, you ask if this is the
:12:23. > :12:26.end for Aleppo, it is although it must not be the end for the people
:12:27. > :12:31.dropped inside, every bomb is a massacre, Bashar says that is the
:12:32. > :12:35.risk. The West, I'm afraid, in these last five years has deliberately,
:12:36. > :12:39.almost thoughtfully, manoeuvred itself into the position where it is
:12:40. > :12:45.now an impotent bystander. It has no leverage. It has leverage to do one
:12:46. > :12:50.thing now. List must be the first priority of the Western effort.
:12:51. > :12:59.Those 50,000 people. There must not be another subunits. But Bosnia. I
:13:00. > :13:03.was there when it happened and there is nothing of that matters in the
:13:04. > :13:07.next 36 hours than those 50,000 people trapped in four square miles,
:13:08. > :13:12.we have to get them out and get them to safety. Beyond that, there are
:13:13. > :13:16.things that the West can do. I would like to come back to the 50,000
:13:17. > :13:22.civilians in need of rescue, as you say. Do you have faith that the
:13:23. > :13:27.ceasefire will hold? Surely regardless of your answer we can
:13:28. > :13:32.only do what the Russians would let us do? I don't have faith but there
:13:33. > :13:35.are things we can do, send in a UN mission, I found it difficult to
:13:36. > :13:42.believe that the Russians would not permit that. Why hasn't it happened
:13:43. > :13:46.already? A very good question. All sorts of reasons. I go back to that
:13:47. > :13:51.vote in 2013 when our parliament refused to act in the face of Bashir
:13:52. > :13:55.al-Assad using chemical weapons. I said at the time it was the most
:13:56. > :13:58.shameful vote I'd ever participated in an parliament and it was true and
:13:59. > :14:03.now there's a price to be paid for that. The West has lost any potency
:14:04. > :14:07.in terms of what it might do, Russia has taken advantage of that and
:14:08. > :14:12.moved into the vacuum, thousands of people have been killed. My bleak
:14:13. > :14:16.guess, what can the West do now apart from trying to save those
:14:17. > :14:22.50,000, the answer is, bluntly, not much. It does not have much leverage
:14:23. > :14:28.on the ground. Moving away from that... Let me tell you what might
:14:29. > :14:33.happen. Ceasefires don't work until both sides believe they have nothing
:14:34. > :14:36.further to gain on the battlefield. My guess is that Assad and the
:14:37. > :14:41.Russians decided that they were not in that position. They had to take
:14:42. > :14:44.Aleppo before there could be a ceasefire. Russia does not want to
:14:45. > :14:48.be involved in this in the long term, I think. They don't want to
:14:49. > :14:52.get bogged down, I suspect both sides have reached a position where
:14:53. > :14:55.everything they can gain on the battlefield has been more or less
:14:56. > :15:05.gained, Aleppo is theirs and the conditions are there for some kind
:15:06. > :15:07.of peace. Let me warn you it will be rough, bloody, untidy, dominated by
:15:08. > :15:10.warlords, Bosnia on a large scale. The right thing now is to have
:15:11. > :15:17.original agreement way you assert the integrity of the political space
:15:18. > :15:21.of Syria as unassailable. That involves the neighbours, Iran,
:15:22. > :15:24.Turkey, underpinned as guarantors by the great powers, that could bring
:15:25. > :15:28.some kind of peace, it will be horrible to observe but I can
:15:29. > :15:36.promise you that every citizen living in Aleppo, trapped between
:15:37. > :15:39.the bombs of asset and the knives of Isis will prefer peace, however
:15:40. > :15:46.untidy, to war, I saw it in Sarajevo, it's the same conditions.
:15:47. > :15:50.Lord Ashton, thanks. Bush Lord Ashdown, thanks.
:15:51. > :15:54.After a stint as an army doctor, Bashar al-Assad was doing
:15:55. > :15:55.postgraduate studies at the Western Eye Hospital
:15:56. > :15:58.in London when he was recalled to Damascus in 1994 after his
:15:59. > :16:01.brother - and heir apparent to the Syrian Presidency -
:16:02. > :16:04.Six years later, he succeeded his father to the Presidency
:16:05. > :16:06.and when ripples from the Arab Spring unfolding
:16:07. > :16:09.across much of the Middle East reached Syria in early 2011,
:16:10. > :16:10.his uncompromising response to pro-democracy protesters
:16:11. > :16:12.effectively constituted the opening shots of what would become
:16:13. > :16:16.A war he now seems vanishingly close to winning.
:16:17. > :16:27.It didn't always seem such a sure thing.
:16:28. > :16:30.Months into the conflict, the UN condemns human rights
:16:31. > :16:35.violations in Syria with US and EU demands that Assad stands down.
:16:36. > :16:37.An attempt by the UN Security Council to pass
:16:38. > :16:40.a resolution condemning the regime fails after Russia
:16:41. > :16:51.An early peace plan devised by the Arab League also fails.
:16:52. > :16:54.Amid continuing international condemnation of the regime,
:16:55. > :16:57.President Obama threatens intervention if there's any use
:16:58. > :17:06.A red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons
:17:07. > :17:16.By the end of the year, a series of countries including the US,
:17:17. > :17:18.Britain and some Gulf states formally recognise the opposition
:17:19. > :17:26.National Coalition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people.
:17:27. > :17:28.In August, a chemical assault on a Damascus
:17:29. > :17:35.The US blames Asad, despite denials by Damascus,
:17:36. > :17:38.President Obama says he is resolved to take military action but will
:17:39. > :17:48.In the UK, Parliament defeats proposals by Prime Minister
:17:49. > :17:54.David Cameron to take action against Assad.
:17:55. > :17:57.By the end of the year more than two million refugees have fled
:17:58. > :18:02.to neighbouring countries and more than 100,000 are dead.
:18:03. > :18:06.Attempts at peace talks in Geneva come to nothing.
:18:07. > :18:09.And a report by Human Rights Watch concludes that Assad has used
:18:10. > :18:14.The report suggests Syrian forces dropped by bombs containing
:18:15. > :18:24.By the end of the year forces from the US and five Arab countries
:18:25. > :18:29.are carrying out air strikes against IS.
:18:30. > :18:31.A game changer, Russia gets involved and carries out
:18:32. > :18:38.air strikes in Syria, targeting IS in September.
:18:39. > :18:48.However the West and the Syrian opposition claim the attacks
:18:49. > :18:50.overwhelmingly target anti-Asad rebels.
:18:51. > :18:53.After another vote, the UK joins bombing raids against IS in December
:18:54. > :18:55.A US-Russian brokered partial ceasefire was concluded
:18:56. > :19:00.And now, here we are, with Assad and Russian forces
:19:01. > :19:08.finally seizing Aleppo's rebel held areas.
:19:09. > :19:11.We tried to speak to representatives of the Russian and Syrian
:19:12. > :19:15.governments but no one wanted to talk.
:19:16. > :19:17.Our Middle East Editor is Jeremy Bowen and joining us
:19:18. > :19:20.from New York is Reza Afshar, who is a diplomatic advisor
:19:21. > :19:23.to the Syrian Opposition and former head of Syria policy at the Foreign
:19:24. > :19:49.The picture painted by Paddy Ashdown was bleak, do you think that Assad
:19:50. > :19:52.will feel like a winner tonight? He will, at the beginning of the war
:19:53. > :19:59.there were even reports he had taken refuge on a Russian battleship in
:20:00. > :20:02.the Mediterranean so to go to this is huge, his biggest victory of the
:20:03. > :20:07.war but I would say not the end of the war. The war is changing its
:20:08. > :20:13.shape and perhaps they have now got to a point where they have fought
:20:14. > :20:18.each other to a standstill, and let's not forget Islamic State still
:20:19. > :20:24.hold their corner of Syria. They have actually retaken parts of the
:20:25. > :20:29.mirror in the last few days under the curtain of everything that has
:20:30. > :20:32.been going on in Aleppo and the Rebels themselves hold quite a bit
:20:33. > :20:37.of territory. So while a lot of foreign powers are still very
:20:38. > :20:42.involved in what is happening in Syria, it has become almost like a
:20:43. > :20:49.miniature world war, it is therefore more difficult to try to bring a
:20:50. > :20:54.diplomatic solution to all of this. And we saw today in the Security
:20:55. > :20:56.Council tremendous acrimony between all the sides, they will have to
:20:57. > :21:05.agree something to get them altogether. And the era of Assad,
:21:06. > :21:15.would you accept that? I think the Russians have the ear of Assad. If
:21:16. > :21:22.you go to the offices of generals in Damascus, they're full of textbooks
:21:23. > :21:26.in Russian about military tactics and commemorative shields from units
:21:27. > :21:32.they visited in Russia, the kind of thing that senior officers give each
:21:33. > :21:36.other. They really are that tight. So as a result, not only does tend
:21:37. > :21:40.to have the era of President Putin and the other way round, the
:21:41. > :21:44.Russians know who was further down the chain as well when it comes to
:21:45. > :21:48.Syria. The West, their problem has been a lot more ignorance relatively
:21:49. > :21:54.speaking with what has been happening and of course the Russians
:21:55. > :21:58.have had this remarkable, a lot of clarity in their policy. They knew
:21:59. > :22:04.what they wanted, to support their man, Assad, but the West in
:22:05. > :22:10.comparison has been all over the place. The western side has shown
:22:11. > :22:19.the complexity of the issue and been a bit befuddled about what to do
:22:20. > :22:22.next. The consensus seems to be that while things may not be quite over
:22:23. > :22:31.yet, perhaps it is the beginning of the end. Would you agree with that?
:22:32. > :22:37.I would wholeheartedly disagree. The fact that Aleppo is on the brink of
:22:38. > :22:42.being taken and Assad feels he is winning does not mean that he is
:22:43. > :22:46.winning. He has to take and hold ground, he does not have the
:22:47. > :22:50.military capability to hold ground. And we have seen what happens when
:22:51. > :22:54.forces are focused in one place like Aleppo, other places get taken and
:22:55. > :22:59.retaken and the moderate rebel groups who in fact were fighting IS
:23:00. > :23:05.also have to focus their efforts on the regime, killing people on a
:23:06. > :23:10.day-to-day basis. Because only they are in a position to protect the
:23:11. > :23:15.civilian population. So we are getting a continual opening up of
:23:16. > :23:19.fronts all over the country. And I would take issue with something
:23:20. > :23:24.Paddy Ashdown said earlier, the idea that the West has no leveraged to
:23:25. > :23:28.deal with the issue is simply wrong. You create that leveraged by
:23:29. > :23:32.creating consequences for the actions that the Syrian government
:23:33. > :23:37.and Russians are taking. If you fire a cruise missile from a ship onto
:23:38. > :23:42.the end of the Syrian runway I think that behaviour would change quite
:23:43. > :23:46.quickly. The Obama administration could have done that at any point in
:23:47. > :23:51.the conflict and has chosen not to. You say at any point but up until
:23:52. > :23:58.the point the Russians got involved surely because to fire a cruise
:23:59. > :24:02.missile at the Syrian runway being used by Russian planes would be an
:24:03. > :24:11.act of confrontation. Not at all, with the amount of Assads in the
:24:12. > :24:16.region, with some clarity we could see which targets have that risk of
:24:17. > :24:22.hitting Russians and which do not. At the end of the day the Russians
:24:23. > :24:26.do not respond to negotiation, they respond to a stepping up of military
:24:27. > :24:32.action. And the Obama administration has failed to do that and I think in
:24:33. > :24:37.the Security Council it was said today that the Russians should be
:24:38. > :24:40.ashamed. They ought to be but also the Americans have to answer why
:24:41. > :24:45.they did not take action to protect civilians in Syria. Do you think
:24:46. > :24:50.that is likely to happen because they talked about a red line with
:24:51. > :24:54.the deployment of chemical weaponry, Barack Obama famously said that line
:24:55. > :25:02.could not be crossed but they did and nothing happened. What has
:25:03. > :25:06.changed now? I'm not optimistic, I do not think this president will do
:25:07. > :25:09.anything in that regard. But the point is that there are tools that
:25:10. > :25:16.can be used to bring the conflict to an end and when Paddy Ashdown talks
:25:17. > :25:22.about a process like Bosnia, I agree, there needs to be some kind
:25:23. > :25:25.of negotiation. But what brought the Serbs to the table was when Nato
:25:26. > :25:30.started to bomb them. At the end of the data has to be chorus of element
:25:31. > :25:34.to policy in Syria and that is completely missing. That is why
:25:35. > :25:40.people are suffering and why we face a daily terror threat in Europe and
:25:41. > :25:43.the US, why there is a refugee exodus tearing apart the fabric of
:25:44. > :25:49.Europe. Syria touches everyone of us in terms of the consequences it has.
:25:50. > :25:54.And it is in the US self-interest and European self-interest to take
:25:55. > :25:55.action to reduce the impact of this conflict. And they have the means to
:25:56. > :26:01.do it. Thank you very much. When Barack Obama elected not
:26:02. > :26:04.to intervene in what he saw as another Muslim civil war
:26:05. > :26:06.in the Middle East, the then Saudi ambassador to Washington,
:26:07. > :26:09.Adel al-Jubeir, reported back to Riyadh that "Iran
:26:10. > :26:13.is the new great power of the Middle East,
:26:14. > :26:16.and the US is the old." Talk of a new world
:26:17. > :26:19.order traditionally seems a little over the top but if 2016 has taught
:26:20. > :26:22.us anything, it is that what once seemed fanciful can
:26:23. > :26:27.quickly become reality. Factor in also that Russia, Iran's
:26:28. > :26:32.co-sponsor of the Assad regime, subsequently came to play a massive
:26:33. > :26:36.part in the suppression of the rebellion, and you are left
:26:37. > :26:40.with a very real sense of a seismic shift in the power structures
:26:41. > :26:45.of the region and so the world. We asked the historian
:26:46. > :26:47.Timothy Garton Ash to give us his assessment of where the world
:26:48. > :27:03.stands as 2016 draws to a close. I think Vladimir Putin
:27:04. > :27:07.will have a very happy Christmas. In fact, he's been known to croon,
:27:08. > :27:10.and I think he may be crooning In Syria he has relentlessly
:27:11. > :27:19.and successfully prosecuted a war at the side of the Assad regime
:27:20. > :27:23.with cynical indifference to massive civilian casualties and suffering,
:27:24. > :27:26.and he's almost won. In the United States,
:27:27. > :27:30.Russian hackers have contributed directly to the defeat of Hillary
:27:31. > :27:34.Clinton. So Putin has now got the most
:27:35. > :27:36.Russia-friendly president he could possibly
:27:37. > :27:40.hope for, in Trump. And now a new Secretary of State,
:27:41. > :27:43.Rex Tillerson, who is an oilman, a buddy of his, who actually opposed
:27:44. > :27:49.sanctions over Crimea. In Europe, Putin can contemplate
:27:50. > :27:53.with delight the rise of populists in every corner and the partial
:27:54. > :27:58.disintegration of I've just come back from Paris,
:27:59. > :28:06.where he has an amazing prospect in the second
:28:07. > :28:09.round of the presidential election, Marine Le Pen of the National Front
:28:10. > :28:14.versus Francois Fillon, the one almost as
:28:15. > :28:19.pro-Putin as the other. And now in Germany they are talking
:28:20. > :28:22.about the danger of Russian hackers again influencing
:28:23. > :28:25.the election results. I think that's been a great
:28:26. > :28:34.year for Vladimir Putin. So some would say,
:28:35. > :28:37.is it a new world order? I would say, if you mean
:28:38. > :28:42.by a new world order an old world disorder,
:28:43. > :28:47.then at the moment, yes. We're back to a world where great
:28:48. > :28:50.powers are relentlessly pursuing their national and imperial
:28:51. > :28:53.interests, also by the use I think one of the lessons of modern
:28:54. > :29:04.history is that dictatorships tend to win in the short-term,
:29:05. > :29:06.but democracies win Sir Anthony Brenton
:29:07. > :29:31.was British Ambassador to Russia. Everyone tonight seems to agree that
:29:32. > :29:38.Vladimir Putin emerges from this unholy mess greatly enhanced. I
:29:39. > :29:42.think that is right. The Russians have gone into Syria was a much
:29:43. > :29:49.clearer view of what they wanted than we did. What did they want?
:29:50. > :29:55.They had a problem of their own at home, they saw the choice in Syria
:29:56. > :30:00.as being between Assad, who believe they do not like, and the
:30:01. > :30:06.alternative is being extremist Islam taking over. And while extremist
:30:07. > :30:11.Islam is a threat to Russia, really Assad is not so they firmly put
:30:12. > :30:17.their money on Assad. And they have vigorously supported him through to
:30:18. > :30:19.the situation we're in now. Much of the covers suggests they have
:30:20. > :30:25.dedicated more attention to what we could describe as a moderate rebel
:30:26. > :30:30.-- rebel groups than the actual jihadists or Islamist. I think their
:30:31. > :30:36.view is that the backbone of the opposition are in fact the
:30:37. > :30:39.Islamists. So therefore western politicians to say we are backing
:30:40. > :30:46.the good guys but the core of the opposition and this is pretty clear,
:30:47. > :30:52.were Islamists. If they're one, even the nice moderate faces put in
:30:53. > :31:00.charge, this Islamists would rapidly have over. --.
:31:01. > :31:11.So David Cameron was wrong to talk about moderate leaders that we could
:31:12. > :31:15.deal with? History was against him, remember the CIA training exercise,
:31:16. > :31:20.at the time that David Cameron said that, which was designed to produce
:31:21. > :31:25.moderate soldiers and produced about ten because they all defected to the
:31:26. > :31:29.extremists when they had trained. So Barack Obama was probably right not
:31:30. > :31:34.to get involved because if he had done he would not have been able to
:31:35. > :31:40.pick a side. That's right. We made a huge mistake at the beginning by
:31:41. > :31:53.saying Assad must go. It then became apparent... What would you have
:31:54. > :31:56.done? I started my career as an Arabist and I have seen the region
:31:57. > :31:58.getting worse and worse and I have seen Western interventions on the
:31:59. > :32:01.whole making it worse rather than better. I was heavily involved in
:32:02. > :32:03.the Iraq exercise, I watched President Mubarak leaving in Egypt
:32:04. > :32:08.and in each case it has left the situation worse than before. I am
:32:09. > :32:13.afraid that this is a region that finally house to solve its own
:32:14. > :32:16.problems. There's always talk about atrocities, some appalling but in
:32:17. > :32:22.the absence of any clear ability on the part of the West to improve the
:32:23. > :32:27.situation rather than damage it, we should be very careful about getting
:32:28. > :32:32.involved at all. In a slightly different direction, reports that
:32:33. > :32:36.Russia may have interfered in the election of Donald Trump, with your
:32:37. > :32:41.background which you have described how important may that story proved
:32:42. > :32:46.to be? I think it will go away but it is pretty clear that the Russians
:32:47. > :32:50.did the hacking. It is not clear why they did it. I am not entirely
:32:51. > :32:53.persuaded that they backed Trump because at the time everyone
:32:54. > :32:58.expected Hillary Clinton to win and they would not set themselves up
:32:59. > :33:03.against a winner. It is a sign of a new technological means for Russia
:33:04. > :33:07.to interfere in our processes and we must equip ourselves for that. Sir
:33:08. > :33:10.Anthony Brenton, thank you very much.
:33:11. > :33:11.British politicians remain fiercely divided over
:33:12. > :33:13.the question of what, if anything, they could
:33:14. > :33:30.David Cameron's actions are seen as one of the reasons behind Barack
:33:31. > :33:33.Obama's decision not to intervene. Perhaps the best illustration of how
:33:34. > :33:37.confusing it was happened two years later when parliament voted in
:33:38. > :33:43.favour of air strikes on Syria, then the parts of course occupied by ice,
:33:44. > :33:45.themselves opponents of the Assad regime.
:33:46. > :33:47.The former Chancellor, George Osborne, told the Commons today
:33:48. > :33:50.that the tragedy was born of a "vacuum of Western leadership"
:33:51. > :34:00.and accused Parliament of having "prevented" action by voting
:34:01. > :34:02.against military intervention against the Assad regime in 2013.
:34:03. > :34:05.The tragedy in Aleppo did not come out of a vacuum.
:34:06. > :34:07.It was created by a vacuum, a vacuum of Western
:34:08. > :34:09.Of American leadership, British leadership.
:34:10. > :34:12.I take responsibility as someone who sat on the National Security Council
:34:13. > :34:14.Parliament should take its responsibility
:34:15. > :34:16.because of what it prevented being done.
:34:17. > :34:22.And there were multiple opportunities to intervene.
:34:23. > :34:25.I'm joined now by the Labour MP for Wirral South, Alison McGovern,
:34:26. > :34:27.and the Times columnist, Matthew Parris.
:34:28. > :34:34.Matthew, I will begin with you, if I may, it seems that in the world of
:34:35. > :34:39.politics and journalism there seems great compunction to pick a side,
:34:40. > :34:43.should we have picked a side sooner and more clearly? I think we picked
:34:44. > :34:47.the wrong side. I do not think we were in any position to know who the
:34:48. > :34:51.rebels were and what form of government they might be able to
:34:52. > :34:57.establish, or how we would underpin that government. I am far from
:34:58. > :35:02.saying that we should have supported Assad but I am not sure we should
:35:03. > :35:08.have opposed him. I think we should have stood back. As it turns out
:35:09. > :35:11.Assad had won. As it turns out he was in a much stronger position than
:35:12. > :35:17.diplomats, our ambassador said that he would fall within weeks and our
:35:18. > :35:21.security and intelligence advisers advised us. I think it is a mistake.
:35:22. > :35:27.I heard George Osborne saying that there were many into opportunities
:35:28. > :35:31.to intervene, there are but you must know what you are going to do when
:35:32. > :35:35.you intervene and I don't think we had a clear view of who the rebels
:35:36. > :35:39.were, which rebels we wanted to win, what sort of government they could
:35:40. > :35:42.form or whether the West could underpin that government. So we did
:35:43. > :35:50.not make the mistake that we made in Libya by toppling Gadhafi without
:35:51. > :35:54.knowing what would follow. Alison McGovern, the question of what we
:35:55. > :35:58.should do now, what the House of Commons contended with today, it
:35:59. > :36:04.might have been nicer to see a few more people sitting on the benches,
:36:05. > :36:08.is it a priority for British politicians, for Theresa May's
:36:09. > :36:14.government? I want to make it one because I think the kind of events
:36:15. > :36:19.have seen in Aleppo over the last 24 hours and over months and months are
:36:20. > :36:25.an offence to basic humanity. I think all of us look at that and
:36:26. > :36:29.think, it is easy to have a counsel of despair and say that there is
:36:30. > :36:33.nothing we can do but we do have tools at our disposal. And rather
:36:34. > :36:37.than seeing this as picking sides, ten years ago we all stood up and
:36:38. > :36:42.said broadly people in the international community think there
:36:43. > :36:46.is a responsibility to protect civilians and it is not about one
:36:47. > :36:51.tactic that can make this happen, it is about a range of things we can
:36:52. > :36:55.do, whether it is sanctions, diplomacy, judicious use of credible
:36:56. > :37:00.force to shift the balance of power... Whatever that strategy is,
:37:01. > :37:04.that is the way that the world should lead, to say that this is not
:37:05. > :37:07.acceptable. And all people were asking for in the House of Commons
:37:08. > :37:12.today was for the Foreign Secretary to bring forward such a strategy to
:37:13. > :37:15.protect civilians and there is a perfect opportunity at the end of
:37:16. > :37:20.this week with the European Council of the Prime Minister still at this
:37:21. > :37:22.late stage to show leadership and say, the international community
:37:23. > :37:25.believes there are certain things that are not right and this is what
:37:26. > :37:33.we will do to uphold those valleys and offers civilians, people who are
:37:34. > :37:39.not combatants, innocent victims- Mac those values, and in French and
:37:40. > :37:43.get them to safety. Russian involvement permitting. Three years
:37:44. > :37:47.ago, your party worked against intervention and you presumably
:37:48. > :37:53.voted against. George Osborne effectively suggested today that you
:37:54. > :37:57.have blood on your hands. First, the Russians have previously signed up,
:37:58. > :38:03.we are only asking them to do what they said already. And I said in the
:38:04. > :38:08.House of Commons... George Osborne implied that people like you were
:38:09. > :38:11.responsible for it. I think he and I agreed in the House that all of our
:38:12. > :38:28.with our votes come in 2013... Do you accept his analysis and
:38:29. > :38:31.regret the way that your party whip and its members? It is not a trick
:38:32. > :38:34.question. I know, let me explain. When the Prime Minister responded to
:38:35. > :38:37.that vote and said words to the effect of, I get that, what I regret
:38:38. > :38:39.is that we left it there. Whether or not we were right at that moment,
:38:40. > :38:42.whether or not the government had proved the case, to be honest with
:38:43. > :38:50.you, I think you can argue it either way. I regret in my own actions not
:38:51. > :38:54.challenging them all, not bringing it forward more, but in the end,
:38:55. > :38:59.David Cameron was the Prime Minister and George Osborne was the
:39:00. > :39:04.Chancellor, and as he and I agreed today, we all must take our share of
:39:05. > :39:08.responsibility. Yet even at this late stage I still think we should
:39:09. > :39:12.be pushing for Britain to take a lead along with our international
:39:13. > :39:16.partners, and do something. I understand. Matthew, one phrase that
:39:17. > :39:21.resonated, from Crispin Blunt, the chair of the foreign select
:39:22. > :39:26.committee, he spoke about being relieved of our imperial intentions,
:39:27. > :39:35.as he suggested, it was not our fight to get involved in. "Ought". I
:39:36. > :39:38.agree with Alison entirely, this implies "Can" and there is a limit
:39:39. > :39:43.to what we can do. I think there was an understanding and there still is
:39:44. > :39:47.a limit to what we could do. It is probably necessary now that somebody
:39:48. > :39:53.wins in Aleppo. It cannot carry on like this. Perhaps we can do
:39:54. > :39:57.something to mitigate whatever harm Assad might do, perhaps we can do
:39:58. > :40:02.something to protect people but probably somebody has to win and on
:40:03. > :40:08.balance it is probably better that it is Bashir al-Assad at the moment.
:40:09. > :40:12.Even though our guest earlier, the refugee now working as a teaching
:40:13. > :40:15.assistant in a Scottish secondary school, he is clear that he thinks
:40:16. > :40:22.everyone might end up dead if this continues. I imagine that, whoever
:40:23. > :40:25.wins, a lot of people will end up dead. I don't think there is any
:40:26. > :40:30.sense in which anyone can be described as winning best. It is the
:40:31. > :40:35.most horrific situation. I know what you are trying to say but it is such
:40:36. > :40:42.a disastrous situation. I do not want to sound cross but it is war,
:40:43. > :40:47.ugly and bloody and rarely brings about neat resolutions. This is why
:40:48. > :40:51.Andrew Mitchell and I have said to the House, this is about
:40:52. > :40:58.international humanitarian law, the rules by which war is governed, any
:40:59. > :41:01.sense of protecting hospitals, doctors, vulnerable children, that's
:41:02. > :41:07.gone out of the window in this conflict so of course you are right,
:41:08. > :41:11.this is a step beyond. If we are to protect hospitals, doctors and
:41:12. > :41:16.refugees we probably have to protect Isis, whatever we call them,
:41:17. > :41:20.probably have to bomb the Russians, attacked Russian warplanes, we are
:41:21. > :41:25.not in a position to get into that. And sadly we are not in possession
:41:26. > :41:26.of enough time to get into this sort of observation, Matthew Parris,
:41:27. > :41:29.Alison McGovern, thank you both. We'll leave you with images
:41:30. > :41:33.from the city of Aleppo, where it seems President Assad's
:41:34. > :42:27.forces may soon be back Good evening, a mild start to
:42:28. > :42:31.Wednesday across the board, cloudy for much of England and Wales
:42:32. > :42:33.although that cloud should melt from the south with good spells of
:42:34. > :42:34.sunshine coming. It