:00:00. > :00:00.As we all head back to school after the Christmas holiday,
:00:07. > :00:08.we've assembled a class of the very brightest students.
:00:09. > :00:10.And we're giving them a first-day test.
:00:11. > :00:17.The big questions for the year ahead.
:00:18. > :00:23.And the shifting structure of super-power politics.
:00:24. > :00:33.When do you see the United Nations solving problems? They don't. They
:00:34. > :00:35.cause problems. On Britain, Brexit and politics here. We have set
:00:36. > :00:38.ourselves on a new direction. And on the European
:00:39. > :00:40.project: is it populism and retreat this year,
:00:41. > :00:42.or business as usual? 40 minutes to answer as many
:00:43. > :00:45.questions as you can. Hello, we haven't put
:00:46. > :00:58.them in school uniforms, but we have borrowed the chairs
:00:59. > :01:01.and desks to get into the right mood for the new term,
:01:02. > :01:03.and to start the year each new term felt like a fresh
:01:04. > :01:10.start - neatly ironed clothes, And then, very quickly you found
:01:11. > :01:14.that the new term carried It's the year with the honour -
:01:15. > :01:21.or dubious honour - So with our brainy panel
:01:22. > :01:29.of the able, gifted and talented, we'll be trying to predict
:01:30. > :01:32.what will be happening this year. It's only 17 days now,
:01:33. > :01:33.until President Trump. So, let's start with some
:01:34. > :01:36.questions about him, But frankly, we really don't know
:01:37. > :01:46.much about what he thinks he'll He's already disowned some
:01:47. > :02:04.of his own campaign lines, No, it's OK. Forget it. That plays
:02:05. > :02:07.great before the election. No, we don't care, right?
:02:08. > :02:09.His style is obviously erratic presidential
:02:10. > :02:11.proclamation by Twitter, leading his fight against the elite
:02:12. > :02:13.from his expensive New York apartment, with his oddball
:02:14. > :02:18.It'll be interesting to see how they all get on.
:02:19. > :02:22.So, question one, what kind of president will President
:02:23. > :02:29.From President Putin, who hopes he's found
:02:30. > :02:31.a new best friend, to China, which fears it may have
:02:32. > :02:36.The truth is there are two populist foreign policies,
:02:37. > :02:41.He could take the US back to its pre-World War II
:02:42. > :02:46.America first, who cares about the rest of the world?
:02:47. > :02:50.Or he could be more internationally assertive, aggressive, even.
:02:51. > :02:56.Or could he surprise us by being consensual?
:02:57. > :03:00.So the question, what will the new world order look like?
:03:01. > :03:03.There is a specific issue facing us all as we wake up
:03:04. > :03:06.to news of atrocities, month after month.
:03:07. > :03:19.I have a substantial chance of winning. If I win, I don't want to
:03:20. > :03:21.broadcast to the enemy exactly what my plan is.
:03:22. > :03:24.But we do know that he puts less weight on fighting Assad
:03:25. > :03:27.So a specific question for this year, will the West
:03:28. > :03:36.Well, some of the questions are essays, some of them a bit shorter.
:03:37. > :03:38.But there are no right answers at the moment -
:03:39. > :03:49.But to answer some of these US-led questions, I'm with:
:03:50. > :03:56.Let's start on Trump. There are two visions, stable, pragmatic Trump who
:03:57. > :04:02.bases himself in Washington and another Trump, the Twitter Trump,
:04:03. > :04:05.erratic, unpredictable and perhaps sometimes reckless. Jan
:04:06. > :04:08.Harper-Hayes, you're from Republicans abroad. Overseas.
:04:09. > :04:18.Republicans overseas. Which Trump is it going to be? It's not a which
:04:19. > :04:22.Trump. He's a person of duality. If you think about it, he's very
:04:23. > :04:31.pragmatic. He's very action oriented. He's very much like Ronald
:04:32. > :04:37.Reagan. He said Mr Gorbachev tear down that wall. Trump is, I'm going
:04:38. > :04:42.to build the wall. He is going to be a president like JFK, like LBJ and
:04:43. > :04:46.even Bill Clinton. You wouldn't have asked Franklin Roosevelt to get off
:04:47. > :04:53.the radio. You would not have asked JFK to get off the TV. We don't ask
:04:54. > :04:57.Trump to get off Twitter. Tamsin, you're looking less optimistic.
:04:58. > :05:02.You're a writer, environmentalist, political activist. It's not the
:05:03. > :05:06.fact that Trump is on Twitter that we mind. It's what he says. Judging
:05:07. > :05:17.by what he says and who he poise, there we have his -- he appoints,
:05:18. > :05:23.there we have in the White House is a racist, sexist, climate change
:05:24. > :05:28.defire. -- denier. Do you accept that you might be wrong - Hey, it
:05:29. > :05:34.doesn't matter. You say 2017 might be the year when he is sort of
:05:35. > :05:37.within normal parameters. I I think the language he has legitimised, the
:05:38. > :05:42.hate crimes we're seeing across America, can't be just wash add way
:05:43. > :05:47.in saying hey it doesn't matter. What you incite when you say things
:05:48. > :05:50.as misogynyst as he has said, when you say we're going to build a wall,
:05:51. > :05:53.when you exclude people from the vision of the United States of
:05:54. > :05:56.America, when you exclude people from your country, the language
:05:57. > :06:00.you're using, then what that provokes is really scary. To be
:06:01. > :06:04.honest, the only thing that I see good about the Trump era is the
:06:05. > :06:09.resistance that it will create. I'm excited to see that. Matthew Parris.
:06:10. > :06:14.You're bigging him up too much. He's just an idiot. The conventional
:06:15. > :06:20.wisdom has been oh, he's actually very wise. He'll deal, get sensible
:06:21. > :06:26.people around him. He won't. He's an idiot. America has had a lot of
:06:27. > :06:31.idiots as presidents. Bush was an idiot and look what he did. He wail
:06:32. > :06:37.carry on -- will carry on being ridiculous. The State Department
:06:38. > :06:40.will resist him and Congress. The earth will continue in its orbit.
:06:41. > :06:45.Ted Malloch you're flying over there tomorrow and hoping to perhaps get a
:06:46. > :06:51.job in the Trump team. You're based here. Do you accept that there are
:06:52. > :06:58.idiot-like features in Donald Trump? No, we had an election and we won
:06:59. > :07:03.that election. The American public has spoken. Trump is not any of the
:07:04. > :07:08.things that has been described. He's a fabulously successful business
:07:09. > :07:11.person, who placed -- plays chess frankly two moves ahead of everybody
:07:12. > :07:15.else on the board. I think we're likely to have a near American
:07:16. > :07:20.nirvana in the next 100 days. It won't even take a year. His approval
:07:21. > :07:26.rate figures a year's time, let's make a prediction, you think they'll
:07:27. > :07:34.be... 60%. Running very high. Perhaps the real test is in his
:07:35. > :07:38.foreign policy, between these two Trumps I describe, the erratic one
:07:39. > :07:42.and the more stable one, what are you hoping for from a Trump foreign
:07:43. > :07:48.policy? Are you hoping he will go out - I actually am not so worried
:07:49. > :07:53.on the foreign policy side. I think it's looking at the domestic. If you
:07:54. > :07:57.look at what makes us a strong power, it has been our military, our
:07:58. > :08:02.economic and soft power, the diplomacy. We have 60 consulates,
:08:03. > :08:08.embassies, missions. China only has a few. I think that he really wants
:08:09. > :08:13.to concentrate on America because we have been spending so much money
:08:14. > :08:15.since the Marshall Plan building other countries up, taking care of
:08:16. > :08:19.other people. We have a lot of people to take care of at home.
:08:20. > :08:24.You're answering one of the questions I hinted at in that video
:08:25. > :08:29.- isolation versus assertiveness internationally. You think he'll,
:08:30. > :08:35.it's going to be more - the world should expect more isolation? No,
:08:36. > :08:40.again, it's like everyone took Trump literally instead of seriously. When
:08:41. > :08:43.you take him literally you take phrases out of context and
:08:44. > :08:47.misinterpret him. It is not isolationism. He wants to do
:08:48. > :08:52.bilateral agreements. It makes so much sense in the changing world
:08:53. > :08:56.today that when you're doing bilateral, if things aren't working
:08:57. > :09:01.between the two of you, don't worry about 15 other countries.
:09:02. > :09:08.Renegotiate and make things work. That's the direction he's taking,
:09:09. > :09:11.not isolationism. One big issue, Paris agreement, climate change,
:09:12. > :09:16.let's face it, it's taken quite a lot of painful negotiations. It's
:09:17. > :09:20.taken years of people's lives. The commit to get that - sorry. What are
:09:21. > :09:24.you expecting over the next year? I don't know what to expect. I fear
:09:25. > :09:34.that he will take the United States out of Paris agreement. And if he
:09:35. > :09:36.does that, it lays waste to the relentless work of an international
:09:37. > :09:41.community who are set on protecting our future against climate change.
:09:42. > :09:45.That's why they meet and that's what they've come up with, their best
:09:46. > :09:50.effort to do that. It took decades to get there. Now we have a
:09:51. > :09:57.president who is treating it like it's children's home work that he
:09:58. > :10:00.can tear up and throw away. As a generation who is moving into the
:10:01. > :10:03.climate change world, we are going to have to take positions of power
:10:04. > :10:09.in a world that will look so different from the one we have today
:10:10. > :10:14.and to have the most powerful person in the world appointing climate
:10:15. > :10:17.change sceptics... Can you give any assurance? No, it's quite likely
:10:18. > :10:21.that America will be first again. That America will be more
:10:22. > :10:25.unilateral. It will be more bilateral and it will be much less
:10:26. > :10:29.multilateral in a Trump administration. Which means things
:10:30. > :10:32.like that treaty and other multilateral accords and certainly
:10:33. > :10:38.your comments on the United Nations, I would agree are likely to take the
:10:39. > :10:42.back seat. Dia Chakravarty, I know you're a Brexiteer here. You're on
:10:43. > :10:48.the right of politics. Are you hopeful or fearful for the next year
:10:49. > :10:53.in Trump terms? The way I describe myself would be a liberal really. I
:10:54. > :10:58.believe in liberal economic policy. I've not seen much liberalism from
:10:59. > :11:01.Trump at all. He does talk about cutting taxes, but in the same
:11:02. > :11:07.breath, he talks about increasing spending. That's debt going up. When
:11:08. > :11:11.it comes to opening the country for them to trade in, we've seen what
:11:12. > :11:15.happens with Ford and General Motors just today. None of that is
:11:16. > :11:19.particularly liberal. So I don't really know what I'm meant to be
:11:20. > :11:23.excited about here at all. In many respects we've admitted we don't
:11:24. > :11:26.know what to expect from Trump. He's all over the place. One last
:11:27. > :11:33.question, the one I put at the end there. Could we begin to win the war
:11:34. > :11:39.against IS? Jan, Ted, speaking for Trump, do you think this is going to
:11:40. > :11:44.be a turning point, Matthew perhaps? We can't win the war against IS, but
:11:45. > :11:49.we can't lose the war against IS either. There's no danger of that.
:11:50. > :11:52.In the end, I imagine that IS will disappear and be replaced by
:11:53. > :11:55.something else. Remember there was Al-Qaeda before them. The Taliban
:11:56. > :12:01.before them. There'll be something else that follow them. The thing
:12:02. > :12:06.will just smoulder on. Jan, put in a last. From foreign policy stand
:12:07. > :12:11.point what he really cares about is attempting to defeat Isis. Working
:12:12. > :12:15.with all of our allies and working with the Middle East. He would
:12:16. > :12:19.rather have the Middle Eastern countries set up camps for the
:12:20. > :12:24.people to stay there, to help out financially, but not go over and
:12:25. > :12:30.deal with it. And cyber security is going to be top on his list, both in
:12:31. > :12:33.relation to Isis and hacking and everything else. Cyber security is
:12:34. > :12:40.going to be on Donald Trump's list. I thought he was quite relaxed about
:12:41. > :12:43.this. You know what, I guess, I don't know how to respond at this
:12:44. > :12:49.point now that he's president-elect, when people make fun of him or when
:12:50. > :12:54.people make him a dichotomy or an either-or. The fact of the matter is
:12:55. > :13:01.cyber security is something that impacts all countries. So he wants
:13:02. > :13:05.to work with our allies to share information, to share intelligence,
:13:06. > :13:08.to get around the data protection aspects in Europe. The more we share
:13:09. > :13:09.information, the more we can keep all the countries safe. Interesting
:13:10. > :13:15.take. Let's move on. Right, well let's move
:13:16. > :13:18.on to the next section of the test. And I suppose it combines politics
:13:19. > :13:22.and a bit of geography, given that the big issue is how
:13:23. > :13:25.close to the European Only nerds had heard
:13:26. > :13:28.of Article 50 a year ago. Now it's all the talk
:13:29. > :13:30.of the playground. And if all goes to plan,
:13:31. > :13:33.it'll get used for the first time But because we are pioneering our
:13:34. > :13:37.course out of the EU, who knows what life in this land
:13:38. > :13:40.called Article 50 will be like. The living may be easy,
:13:41. > :13:57.but more likely, yes, more likely, In my opinion, the only alternative
:13:58. > :13:59.to a hard Brexit is no Brexit. Yes more likely Brexit will be
:14:00. > :14:00.challenging. The tendency is to think the PM
:14:01. > :14:03.will call the shots, but the interesting debate will be
:14:04. > :14:06.among the remaining EU members So the question for Britain
:14:07. > :14:12.in 2017 is this one. What kind of Brexit
:14:13. > :14:14.will begin to emerge? By the year-end, we shall
:14:15. > :14:18.certainly have a clue. Brexit of course is the great schism
:14:19. > :14:21.these days, which has kind of disrupted the usual
:14:22. > :14:24.course of politics. Stuck in a dilemma,
:14:25. > :14:27.Labour has to respect the referendum vote for Leave,
:14:28. > :14:30.but can't afford to leave the votes Ukip and Tory, even the Lib Dems,
:14:31. > :14:46.have been taking Labour votes in We're going to be campaigning on
:14:47. > :14:50.economic justice issues from now on. We're going to be calling out this
:14:51. > :14:51.Government for increasing inequality and injustice. I think that message
:14:52. > :14:53.will get across. But is Corbyn enough
:14:54. > :14:55.of a vote winner? So as we look at 2017,
:14:56. > :14:58.the big political question We of course had a general
:14:59. > :15:03.election two years ago, Is it time for another,
:15:04. > :15:08.for May to get a mandate. So a specific question
:15:09. > :15:33.for the year ahead, will we be Let's pick up on the Brexit side of
:15:34. > :15:38.that. Just to get some Brexit views and I believe these three on the
:15:39. > :15:42.right for the minute. We had you in this studio during the referendum
:15:43. > :15:48.campaign, do you have any fears about the kind of deal we are going
:15:49. > :15:56.to get. You were on the Brexit side, any concerns or nervousness about
:15:57. > :16:01.it? I think we ever did the fear a little bit even before the
:16:02. > :16:06.referendum. The way we need to look at it, we have got to make this
:16:07. > :16:14.work. And the constant letting down of the country, from certain
:16:15. > :16:19.quarters, it is getting tiresome. Sir Ivan Rogers, our most senior
:16:20. > :16:21.ambassador in Brussels who resigned today, the BBC obtained his
:16:22. > :16:29.resignation note to his colleagues and he said ministers need to hear
:16:30. > :16:33.uncomfortable truth, serious negotiating experience is in short
:16:34. > :16:36.supply in Whitehall, the commission of the council are well prepared and
:16:37. > :16:41.he said to colleagues, I hope you will continue to challenge ill
:16:42. > :16:45.founded arguments and muddled thinking and never be afraid to
:16:46. > :16:51.speak the truth to those in power. Is he just some kind of complainer?
:16:52. > :16:56.It sounds familiar, we heard all this gloom and doom story before the
:16:57. > :16:59.referendum then we have the referendum and nothing happened to
:17:00. > :17:04.completely destroyed the world as we know it. But we kept hearing it was
:17:05. > :17:08.going to get worse. Then another economic quarter came and things
:17:09. > :17:13.were still not as bad as predicted. So at this stage I have no reason to
:17:14. > :17:18.believe him over any of the others constantly trying to warn us before
:17:19. > :17:22.we actually went through the vote. You were amongst those warning
:17:23. > :17:29.before we went to the vote, but it would be a bad thing to me. Are you
:17:30. > :17:34.any more optimistic now? Yes, I did think it would be pretty quickly a
:17:35. > :17:41.disaster. I now think we may just bump along, not growing quite as
:17:42. > :17:46.much as we might have. Not exporting, not being the tiger
:17:47. > :17:49.economy bounding out into the world that was promised. We may just bump
:17:50. > :17:54.along. But there is one thing that is going to happen in the coming
:17:55. > :18:00.year and that is the issue everyone is trying to avoid. The question
:18:01. > :18:04.once we have triggered Article 50, can we change our minds and that is
:18:05. > :18:09.going to be the big question during 2017. Because I think probably we
:18:10. > :18:15.can. I do not think we have to leave. You're not thinking that we
:18:16. > :18:18.might change our minds? A service we realised the UK does not have to do
:18:19. > :18:23.leave the EU if we do not like the deal we get then Parliament will
:18:24. > :18:28.become interested again. Matthew Goodwin, you are an expert on the
:18:29. > :18:34.politics of populism, the parties of the right, outside parties. Do you
:18:35. > :18:39.think there is any going back now? That we begin to have second
:18:40. > :18:43.thoughts and maybe patch something together that is more in than out.
:18:44. > :18:49.There is no evidence of any significant changing of minds
:18:50. > :18:53.amongst the electorate, it is simply not there. Let me suggest one
:18:54. > :18:57.possible scenario. There is an assumption at the moment that the
:18:58. > :19:00.British electorate when they experience some kind of economic
:19:01. > :19:04.turbulence that they will rush back to the centre and said we have made
:19:05. > :19:08.a terrible mistake, cancel the whole thing and go back to the EU. There
:19:09. > :19:13.was a possibility that they would go the other way and say actually, the
:19:14. > :19:18.EU is not playing ball with us, and they become harder in their views.
:19:19. > :19:22.That is not being seriously considered at the moment. Because it
:19:23. > :19:25.will be an unfriendly Brexit that would cause the difficult economic
:19:26. > :19:31.times and that is the one that makes you not want to go back in. That is
:19:32. > :19:35.no 1's interests, we want what is good for us but also do not want to
:19:36. > :19:40.be unfriendly to our neighbours. You heard Donald Tusk saying that the
:19:41. > :19:47.choice is a hard Brexit board no Brexit. Maybe that is for liberals
:19:48. > :19:56.like you, that is the difficult truth. It is absolutely true. Soft
:19:57. > :20:00.Brexit is presumably Norway, where we keep a lot of what we have but we
:20:01. > :20:05.are not actually in the EU. Who made the best argument against that, it
:20:06. > :20:09.was the remainders. We said it would be ridiculous and worse than just
:20:10. > :20:19.being in the EU. If we're going to leave it is probably going to be a
:20:20. > :20:23.hard wrecks it. -- Brexit. Well we have heard claims about public
:20:24. > :20:31.opinion, do you agree with that assessment? I must put my hand up, I
:20:32. > :20:35.have asked a lot, surely now the focus groups are showing that people
:20:36. > :20:39.now that they know what is happening, they regret it and if we
:20:40. > :20:44.ran the referendum again they would vote differently. The answer is no
:20:45. > :20:47.and if anything, I think the other way around. There is some evidence
:20:48. > :20:53.suggesting people who voted remain now just want to see the thing
:20:54. > :20:57.through. And it relates back to the Trump argument as well, there is
:20:58. > :21:01.this sense of the ordinary people against the elite. One guy said to
:21:02. > :21:06.me in a focus group, when I woke up the next morning and found we had
:21:07. > :21:10.gone Brexit, I felt England had won the World Cup. He felt it was his
:21:11. > :21:15.team against the others and he had won. It is a powerful and emotive
:21:16. > :21:23.thing. Moving on to British politics. Brexit will play into that
:21:24. > :21:31.I want to bring you in. Someone who knows about the odds. Can the Labour
:21:32. > :21:34.Party recover? We have an early test in the Copeland by-election. It is
:21:35. > :21:39.difficult to see how the Labour Party can move on from its current
:21:40. > :21:43.situation. Their leader is the only leader in the history of labour who
:21:44. > :21:50.has never had positive ratings on any poll ever. That is a very
:21:51. > :21:54.serious situation. And the polling just gets worse and worse. You
:21:55. > :22:00.remember you only get one chance to make a first impression and he made
:22:01. > :22:05.a bad one. People will be saying that the polls have been wrong, the
:22:06. > :22:08.experts have been defied. There is an argument that says if Brexit Gus
:22:09. > :22:14.Bradley the public will vote for someone other than the incumbent
:22:15. > :22:17.government and Jeremy Corbyn would be an antiestablishment candidate on
:22:18. > :22:23.the other side and a place they feel they may go. He does not come over
:22:24. > :22:27.as a credible figure, that is the big problem that Labour face. They
:22:28. > :22:35.have a leader who is seen as being all over the place, a leader who is
:22:36. > :22:43.tainted with IRA and other terrorist links. Just remember what the Tories
:22:44. > :22:56.did to Ed Miliband because he ate a sound which one it awkwardly. -- 8+
:22:57. > :23:02.which. It is interesting what you say about the sandwich, the media
:23:03. > :23:06.went for him and so public opinion followed and we are seeing something
:23:07. > :23:14.similar with Jeremy Corbyn. The polls are following, there is
:23:15. > :23:19.blanket bad news coverage and now no news coverage really of him. I
:23:20. > :23:27.really hope that people will get behind him. I'm not thinking you
:23:28. > :23:31.have much confidence. The Green Party have gone to him and said we
:23:32. > :23:38.need to form Progressive alliances. That worked in Richmond, we got a
:23:39. > :23:42.left wing person in, someone who was not a Tory. He needs to explore more
:23:43. > :23:46.interesting ways and more modern ways of doing government. That is
:23:47. > :23:53.through alliances. Thinking about Ed Miliband for a moment, in the last
:23:54. > :23:57.Parliament he was scoring 12, 15% higher than Jeremy Corbyn is now and
:23:58. > :24:03.we know what happened after that. On the subject of the polls, as you
:24:04. > :24:07.know, when they get it wrong they tend to understate labour and not
:24:08. > :24:10.overstated. If they are wrong they are likely to be wrong the other way
:24:11. > :24:14.round. I think it is worse than you are saying for Jeremy Corbyn because
:24:15. > :24:19.in focus groups it is not that people do not like him, but he is
:24:20. > :24:23.literally irrelevant and has nothing to say to them. I did some focus
:24:24. > :24:30.groups a few weeks ago and I showed a photograph at half the people they
:24:31. > :24:35.did not know who he was. Jeremy Corbyn is no good but he may go and
:24:36. > :24:42.you imagine if Ed Balls came back in to leave the Labour Party, imagine
:24:43. > :24:49.Theresa May stumbles badly. That is a big leap of the imagination.
:24:50. > :24:53.Forget the leaders, the Labour Party, this is a crisis facing
:24:54. > :25:00.social democracy, they have run out of ideas. The rules of politics have
:25:01. > :25:03.changed and the Labour Party and socialists have nothing to say to
:25:04. > :25:09.that. It is not about Jeremy Corbyn or Labour, it is social democracy
:25:10. > :25:13.running out of ideas. Just a show of hands, how many feel they will
:25:14. > :25:19.probably be a general election this year in the UK. And how many do not
:25:20. > :25:28.think there will be. That was interesting. The rule for exams, if
:25:29. > :25:29.you do not finish a question it does not matter as long as you said
:25:30. > :25:32.something clever. And on that note,
:25:33. > :25:34.we have to move on. We've talked about Brexit,
:25:35. > :25:36.but Europe has other issues If Trump made the US the country
:25:37. > :25:40.of global attention in 2016, it is the continent of Europe
:25:41. > :25:43.which may dominate 2017. She and her National Front
:25:44. > :25:57.are the ones to watch. She is running at about 25%
:25:58. > :26:00.in the polls, for the French When the vote comes, given the size
:26:01. > :26:06.and importance of France, whether she wins or loses
:26:07. > :26:09.answers the big European Which is, will populism advance or
:26:10. > :26:18.retreat on the European continent? It's been a rough few
:26:19. > :26:21.years for the EU. The migrant crisis has
:26:22. > :26:23.exposed the fragility Schengen for example removed
:26:24. > :26:29.borders, but some of them went up again very quickly when large
:26:30. > :26:32.numbers of people came in. Europe's been trapped
:26:33. > :26:35.between retreating and reinstating national boundaries and advancing
:26:36. > :26:40.by having a proper common So now we wait for
:26:41. > :26:59.the answer to this. Will the European project move
:27:00. > :27:04.further into reverse? Oh, and then of course the biggest
:27:05. > :27:07.problem of all is the euro. The combination in some countries
:27:08. > :27:09.of uncompetitiveness, low growth, banks in trouble
:27:10. > :27:13.and big government debts. Yes, that's Italy, a country
:27:14. > :27:16.too big to be ignored. So a final quickie,
:27:17. > :27:32.will the euro survive the year? Let's go straight in on some of
:27:33. > :27:39.those questions. You are a betting man, what does the current odds on
:27:40. > :27:44.Marine Le Pen winning the French presidency? About 22% chance. That
:27:45. > :27:49.is what Trump was given. Yes, indeed. That is what is happening at
:27:50. > :27:53.the moment. People do not bet to provide an alternative prediction
:27:54. > :27:59.but to try to make money. I suppose the 20% chance, people have now seen
:28:00. > :28:05.Trump and perhaps they are more cautious. And again I love the
:28:06. > :28:12.French system, they have all the candidates standing and then the
:28:13. > :28:14.final to stand a fortnight later. I think Marine Le Pen has got a
:28:15. > :28:19.problem getting into the second round. But in the polls she is
:28:20. > :28:25.getting into the second round. At the moment but they might be a level
:28:26. > :28:31.of coalescing around the first round, and on someone who could
:28:32. > :28:37.actually squeeze her out. Matthew Goodwin, the big question and you
:28:38. > :28:43.hinted at this at the end of the last section, populism on the
:28:44. > :28:48.rampage around the world. To use that as a shorthand. The continent
:28:49. > :28:51.of Europe, this could be the year that it stops comment Marine Le Pen
:28:52. > :28:57.does not win France, Angela Merkel hangs on in Germany and then it is
:28:58. > :29:00.game over for populism. We had a strange moment during the rerun of
:29:01. > :29:06.the Austrian presidential elections when liberals or all of social media
:29:07. > :29:11.saying it is great, celebrate the radical right only got 46% of the
:29:12. > :29:15.national vote as if this was somehow acceptable outcome for the European
:29:16. > :29:26.Union whereas in 2002 there was a global meltdown when Jean-Marie Le
:29:27. > :29:31.Pen achieved some victory. That is how quickly the tide has come up the
:29:32. > :29:33.beach of your leap -- of European politics. Populists have recognised
:29:34. > :29:37.that cultural protectionism matters as much as economic protectionism to
:29:38. > :29:43.the voters and that has enabled them to move into both working-class
:29:44. > :29:46.stronghold and that is why social democracy has collapsed at just
:29:47. > :29:51.about the same time as the populist right has entered into a new phase
:29:52. > :29:57.of strength. It does not matter if Marine Le Pen does not win or the
:29:58. > :29:59.AFP do not overturn Angela Merkel. Because these parties are here to
:30:00. > :30:10.stay. The EU is like a lorry going down a
:30:11. > :30:12.superhighway at high speed with all four tyres coming off. This year
:30:13. > :30:16.you'll find at least three of those falling off. If there's one thing
:30:17. > :30:20.that I want to predict it's your last question, what would you do
:30:21. > :30:29.around the euro? I'd be shorting the euro. Do you really think the, if
:30:30. > :30:33.Merkel wins and Marine Le Pen doesn't win in the two biggest
:30:34. > :30:37.countries, you basically have business as usual. You will have a
:30:38. > :30:42.right-wing president in France, even if Le Pen loses. That's an anomaly.
:30:43. > :30:48.Things change completely in France. Italy is the first one to turn, the
:30:49. > :30:53.Netherlands has its election. It looks like a vast number of parties
:30:54. > :30:57.competing, but it looks like the right-wing party will win. There's
:30:58. > :31:01.enormous change on the European front. It's basically the end of the
:31:02. > :31:06.European project. How many of you, I want to do a show of hands, I liked
:31:07. > :31:11.the last one - how many think the euro will go out of business
:31:12. > :31:14.basically implode or disintegrate this year or shortly after it? How
:31:15. > :31:23.many of you would bet on that actually out of interest? Just you,
:31:24. > :31:30.Ted. Matthew, I saw you trying to come in. The problem with populism,
:31:31. > :31:35.the problem that Matthew Goodwin identifies with social democracy, it
:31:36. > :31:40.doesn't really have a viable manifesto. So it can make a lot of
:31:41. > :31:46.noise when it's in opposition, when it gets into government, it fails. I
:31:47. > :31:54.think Matthew's right, it's a tide. Populism has reached high tide. I
:31:55. > :31:58.don't think Marine Le Pen is going to win. In Austria things seem to
:31:59. > :32:02.have been held back. I have a feeling that this is the year in
:32:03. > :32:08.which populism peaks in Europe. Matthew, go on. I'm not as
:32:09. > :32:12.convinced, given that, you know, the old left and right division in
:32:13. > :32:17.politics now is making way for what academics call a new cultural divide
:32:18. > :32:21.between those who essentially are at ease with the pace of ethnic change
:32:22. > :32:25.and those that feel profoundly anxious about it. That's going to be
:32:26. > :32:29.with us for another generation, two generations, three generations.
:32:30. > :32:34.That's not going anywhere. At the same time, that's coinciding with
:32:35. > :32:37.rising economic inequality. Making the same groups of voters feel even
:32:38. > :32:45.more neglected and disaffected. Until we deal with the underlying
:32:46. > :32:49.occurents -- currents it will continue. I have a board member that
:32:50. > :32:56.works for Facebook in government affairs, she said of the 1. 6
:32:57. > :33:01.billion users, over 60% around the globe are posting insurgent
:33:02. > :33:06.political issues. It is not unique to the US, the UK, Austria, France.
:33:07. > :33:10.It's a fashion. We've looked at the US, we've looked at the UK and we've
:33:11. > :33:15.had a brief look at Europe. One last question, which is has the world
:33:16. > :33:17.become harder to predict? Last year was the one nearly every expert got
:33:18. > :33:24.wrong. Last year was the one nearly
:33:25. > :33:26.every expert got wrong, but there were a handful of diviners
:33:27. > :33:29.and soothsayers who called So we've invited them
:33:30. > :33:32.to share their prognostications for the coming 12 months,
:33:33. > :33:34.with our own Gypsy And a happy New Year
:33:35. > :33:40.from everyone at Newsnight. Shall we see what lies
:33:41. > :33:40.ahead for us all? I don't know about you,
:33:41. > :33:49.but nothing beats those back to work For my part, I'm falling
:33:50. > :33:53.back on tried and tested And trying to contact the few
:33:54. > :33:59.clairvoyants who were spot on about 2016 to get their tips
:34:00. > :34:04.for the New Year. I should add that I'm
:34:05. > :34:06.not a real medium. It's a Scottish professor based
:34:07. > :34:22.at an American university. Well, I'm three for three just now,
:34:23. > :34:27.so I've got Brexit, then I've got Trump,
:34:28. > :34:28.then I've got the For all of the sturm
:34:29. > :34:35.und drang about Brexit, and whether Britain should have
:34:36. > :34:38.left, it might actually be the case You have an election
:34:39. > :34:44.coming up in France. It's entirely plausible
:34:45. > :34:46.the National Front will At that point, everyone in France
:34:47. > :34:51.is meant to organise a giant blocking coalition to stop
:34:52. > :34:53.them being elected. That would mean everyone
:34:54. > :34:56.on the French left has to vote for someone who basically wants
:34:57. > :35:00.to bring Thatcher's economic policy menu to France,
:35:01. > :35:02.and that's after eight Now I'm getting an economic
:35:03. > :35:10.policy adviser, I wonder I think inflation is
:35:11. > :35:22.going to be the story. I've written a lot
:35:23. > :35:24.about shrinkflation which is a precursor,
:35:25. > :35:26.which I think everybody When you open a box of cereal
:35:27. > :35:31.and it's the same size and it costs the same, but there
:35:32. > :35:36.is only half as much inside. That was the signal that price
:35:37. > :35:39.pressures were in the economy and I think now they'll bubble up
:35:40. > :35:43.and we'll actually see Champions Leicester City began
:35:44. > :35:49.their title defence against a Hull OMG, now I'm picking up
:35:50. > :35:53.Grindr on this thing! Losing his shirt, and his trousers,
:35:54. > :35:58.after Leicester City won Others called it right, and backed
:35:59. > :36:07.their hunch at the bookies. They did it, and they won
:36:08. > :36:10.the league and I won just over I think they're going to end up
:36:11. > :36:16.mid-table this year. I can't see them winning it
:36:17. > :36:19.because there's another team which is doing really well,
:36:20. > :36:22.and they're getting the results. So things might look
:36:23. > :36:31.black for the Foxes, and also for another big winner
:36:32. > :36:34.of last year, according to a man who's been
:36:35. > :36:36.predicting US elections correctly for 30 odd years,
:36:37. > :36:41.including the last one. My crystal ball sees some very dark
:36:42. > :36:45.things ahead for Mr Trump. Even before the election I predicted
:36:46. > :36:49.that Mr Trump was likely to be impeached or maybe resign
:36:50. > :36:53.in the course of an impeachment. This isn't a scientific
:36:54. > :36:55.prediction, it's from the gut. We all know about the machinations
:36:56. > :36:59.of Trump University and we all know 12 women have accused him of sexual
:37:00. > :37:04.assault, a crime. And he actually gave us
:37:05. > :37:07.all a blueprint of how he did it. If you're president,
:37:08. > :37:10.as Harry Truman once said, You're riding the tiger
:37:11. > :37:14.on your own, and I'm not sure Our final seer isn't celebrated
:37:15. > :37:24.for predicting anything, so much as for being the unpredicted
:37:25. > :37:26.winner of the Booker Paul Beatty, the first American
:37:27. > :37:31.to win after his book He thinks Trump could be good
:37:32. > :37:37.for creative business. I think people are charged,
:37:38. > :37:41.you know, as opposed to feeling enervated,
:37:42. > :37:45.which I think is often the case. So yeah, sometimes it's nice
:37:46. > :37:49.to have something to write against or to scream
:37:50. > :37:53.against or rant. I don't know if that
:37:54. > :37:55.necessarily produces, But I think the more
:37:56. > :37:59.stuff that's out there, the more stuff that's going to be
:38:00. > :38:02.good, you know. So people are charged
:38:03. > :38:04.to create, you know, Just a couple of other
:38:05. > :38:15.things I noticed in there. It's going to be a great year
:38:16. > :38:18.for Librans, redheads, And that carries the full imprimatur
:38:19. > :38:36.and majesty of Newsnight behind it. Steve Smith with people who got
:38:37. > :38:39.something right in 2016. I had a serious question which was is the
:38:40. > :38:44.world getting harder to forecast. Mike? I think it is. Are betting
:38:45. > :38:50.odds getting longer on average? We've had two extraordinary
:38:51. > :38:57.situations. We had the Brexit vote, at 11pm on June 23, it was rated
:38:58. > :39:04.Remain was rated at 94% chance. What happened within a two, three hours,
:39:05. > :39:09.a completely complapsed. It wasn't that hard to predict Brexit. The
:39:10. > :39:11.whole premise is it was amazing, like Leicester City winning the
:39:12. > :39:16.Premier League. It wasn't that hard. If you looked at the polls you would
:39:17. > :39:23.have said it was 60-40. Almost 50/50. There were more polls in the
:39:24. > :39:27.final month that predicted a Leave victory than predicted Remain. It
:39:28. > :39:30.was the media's coverage of the polls and the ones which had the big
:39:31. > :39:35.Remain leads which created the atmosphere. That brings us to polls.
:39:36. > :39:38.You do this stuff. It feels like those have been getting more wrong
:39:39. > :39:43.over the years. I don't think that's right. In fact, in the US, the
:39:44. > :39:49.national polls were actually right. Where they got it wrong was in the
:39:50. > :39:54.detailed state polls. The Brexit polls actually as you've just said,
:39:55. > :39:58.they were mainly right. Huffington Post are putting a 99% chance on
:39:59. > :40:02.Trump losing. It's not that the polls were wrong, I don't think it's
:40:03. > :40:06.just the media. I think the experts were wrong. I think the evidence was
:40:07. > :40:12.there and they weren't hearing it. They weren't listening to it. So
:40:13. > :40:15.inside the beltway in the US, in the Westminster bubble, people were, it
:40:16. > :40:19.was confirmation bias, they were talking to their mates. Everybody
:40:20. > :40:23.agreed with everybody. Actually, they weren't hearing what the
:40:24. > :40:26.people, the sorts of people that Matthew's been talking about, were
:40:27. > :40:29.actually saying. So there was a world where lots of people were
:40:30. > :40:34.unhappy about the effects of globalisation and nobody was
:40:35. > :40:43.listening to them. Thanks all. The papers leading tomorrow on Ivan
:40:44. > :40:45.Rogers resignation. That's about it for us tonight.
:40:46. > :40:47.Well, predictions - as you have seen -
:40:48. > :40:50.are not for telling you what is going to happen,
:40:51. > :40:52.but just to make you think about the year ahead and some
:40:53. > :40:58.Top marks to our class of 2017 - thank you to them for playing along.
:40:59. > :41:03.And it is a happy journalistic tradition to never ever hold people
:41:04. > :41:06.to their predictions, we just get you along to give them.
:41:07. > :41:09.Newsnight will, of course, be with you for the whole of 2017 -
:41:10. > :41:25.Hello there. Certainly looks as though we're going to see more in
:41:26. > :41:29.the way of cloud and outbreaks of showery rain sinking their way south
:41:30. > :41:35.over the next few hours. Gales or severe gales for a time across the
:41:36. > :41:36.far north-east, the Northern Isles. That brings a scattering of