:00:00. > :00:14.But we are hoping to hang on to the good bits.
:00:15. > :00:17.Will Europe give us a cake and eat it deal?
:00:18. > :00:20.This club would benefit - and all th members of this club -
:00:21. > :00:21.would benefit from a strategic partnership
:00:22. > :00:27.You cannot simply pick and choose what you like and leave aside
:00:28. > :00:34.The idea all this is going to be efficient, clean and done and dusted
:00:35. > :00:38.in two years, I think, is a bit of a pipe dream.
:00:39. > :00:40.We'll ask if Theresa May can carry her party,
:00:41. > :00:45.business and the country with her Brexit vision.
:00:46. > :00:48.China's President Xi is in Davos and looking like the only world
:00:49. > :00:50.leader not stuck in a permanent domestic melodrama of
:00:51. > :00:56.When did China become the grown-up in the room?
:00:57. > :01:02.What does Conservative America want the Donald to do on day one?
:01:03. > :01:05.He should sit down at his desk the afternoon of January 20th
:01:06. > :01:07.and rescind every executive order issued by President
:01:08. > :01:23.Theresa May said a lot today - I think as much as everything
:01:24. > :01:27.She gave us the principles, the specific objectives,
:01:28. > :01:32.a threat and her hopes, including her hope that Britain
:01:33. > :01:34.will unite and put the divisions of the referendum behind it.
:01:35. > :01:38.Underlying her pitch was a statement that Britain is different to most
:01:39. > :01:41.of the other European countries and wants to be more global.
:01:42. > :01:51.It wishes Europe well, but the Prime Minister
:01:52. > :01:54.couldn't have been clearer - we are leaving the EU in full.
:01:55. > :01:55.Frankly, it's the remainer nightmare.
:01:56. > :01:58.But the Prime Minister also offered Europe a new relationship,
:01:59. > :02:01.based on free trade, a customs agreement and lots
:02:02. > :02:03.of co-operation on science, security and the like.
:02:04. > :02:06.At a first glance, many would look at it and say -
:02:07. > :02:09.if we get all that on trade, without paying big membership fees,
:02:10. > :02:12.while controlling immigration, then we have the best bits of the EU
:02:13. > :02:16.The question that matters of course, for us all, is whether the other EU
:02:17. > :02:21.Let's start with our political editor, Nick Watt, on the speech
:02:22. > :02:25.Today, we finally had a clear vision from Theresa May about how she hopes
:02:26. > :02:29.to reframe the UK's relationship with the EU.
:02:30. > :02:40.What I am proposing cannot mean membership of the single market.
:02:41. > :02:47.European leaders have said many times that membership means
:02:48. > :02:51.accepting the four freedoms of goods, capital,
:02:52. > :02:59.And being out of the EU, but a member of the single market,
:03:00. > :03:03.would mean complying with the EU's rules and regulations that
:03:04. > :03:05.implement those freedoms, without having a vote on what those
:03:06. > :03:13.It would mean accepting a role for the European Court of Justice
:03:14. > :03:15.that would see it still having direct legal authority
:03:16. > :03:20.It would, to all intents and purposes, mean not
:03:21. > :03:28.By announcing that she will withdraw from one of the proudest
:03:29. > :03:30.achievements of the Thatcher government, Theresa May was sending
:03:31. > :03:36.fundamental messages to two core audiences.
:03:37. > :03:38.To Britain she was saying - I'm fulfilling the instruction
:03:39. > :03:42.from voters, who said take back control of immigration and take back
:03:43. > :03:45.control of full lawmaking powers, and also there'll be a benefit too,
:03:46. > :03:48.no more vast contributions to the EU budget.
:03:49. > :03:52.And to Brussels, she was saying - you didn't think I would dare
:03:53. > :04:05.But see now, I am really serious about a clean Brexit.
:04:06. > :04:09.I know my emphasis on striking trade agreements with countries outside
:04:10. > :04:12.Europe has led to questions about whether Britain
:04:13. > :04:17.seeks to remain a member of the EU's customs union.
:04:18. > :04:20.The Prime Minister signalled that the UK will opt out of two key
:04:21. > :04:25.elements of the customs union - the setting of quotas,
:04:26. > :04:28.and of tariffs for EU trade with outside countries.
:04:29. > :04:31.But she wants to hold the door ajar to the customs union
:04:32. > :04:35.to give her options on her prize goal of the closest possible
:04:36. > :04:43.tariff-free trading relationship with the EU.
:04:44. > :04:50.I want us to have reached an agreement about our future
:04:51. > :04:54.partnership by the time the two-year Article 50 process has concluded.
:04:55. > :04:58.From that point onwards, we believed a phased
:04:59. > :05:01.process of implementation, in which both Britain and the EU
:05:02. > :05:04.institutions and member states prepare for the new arrangements
:05:05. > :05:08.that will exist between us, will be in our mutual self-interest.
:05:09. > :05:11.The Chancellor has led calls for a transitional deal to avoid
:05:12. > :05:16.business uncertainties if the UK fails to agree the terms
:05:17. > :05:18.of its future relationship with the EU during the two-year
:05:19. > :05:26.The Prime Minister sought to turn a weakness into a strength on this
:05:27. > :05:32.one today by saying that both sides would benefit from the phasing
:05:33. > :05:35.in of the implementation of elements on that deal, ranging
:05:36. > :05:43.from co-operation on fighting terrorism, to immigration controls.
:05:44. > :05:48.While I am sure a positive agreement can be reached,
:05:49. > :05:50.I'm equally clear that no deal for Britain is better
:05:51. > :05:59.There was a sharp intake of breath amongst the ambassadors assembled
:06:00. > :06:02.at Lancaster House when Theresa May showed she has been listening
:06:03. > :06:04.to David Davis, who said rule number one of negotiations is,
:06:05. > :06:07.your opponents will only take you seriously if you show
:06:08. > :06:17.One minister told me, "Theresa May has called the EU's bluff,
:06:18. > :06:33.we have many more cards to play than people had thought."
:06:34. > :06:36.And when it comes to Parliament, there is one other way
:06:37. > :06:37.in which I would like to provide certainty.
:06:38. > :06:40.I can confirm today that the Government will put
:06:41. > :06:43.the final deal that is agreed between the UK and the EU to a vote
:06:44. > :06:48.in both Houses of Parliament before it comes into force.
:06:49. > :06:50.The Prime Minister wanted to answer critics who've
:06:51. > :06:53.accused her of failing to deliver on the traditional demand
:06:54. > :06:55.of Eurosceptics, the restoration of full Parliamentary sovereignty.
:06:56. > :06:57.But she also had a message for the EU.
:06:58. > :06:59.Watch out, Parliament will have a chance to reject
:07:00. > :07:01.a flawed deal in favour of a unilateral move
:07:02. > :07:16.We will hear more from Nicking shortly. -- Nick shortly.
:07:17. > :07:19.Well, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Damian Green,
:07:20. > :07:21.is one of the Cabinet's most committed europhiles,
:07:22. > :07:24.he's long been in the Ken Clarke wing of the party and was dispatched
:07:25. > :07:27.today to face the cameras and defend the hard Brexit
:07:28. > :07:31.I spoke to him this afternoon and asked if he had been
:07:32. > :07:33.persuaded to change his mind since the referendum campaign.
:07:34. > :07:37.I was a remainor, but I'm not a remoaner. I'm a democrat. I accept
:07:38. > :07:42.that the British people voted to get out of the European Union. I argued
:07:43. > :07:45.against that, but, as I say, I'm a democrat. Therefore, it's the job of
:07:46. > :07:49.the British Government to say - OK, that is what the British people
:07:50. > :07:52.want. How can we do the best possible deal that will set us up
:07:53. > :07:56.for decades to come? That's what today's speech was about. Customs
:07:57. > :08:00.union, I mean, as I understand it, we are leaving the customs union,
:08:01. > :08:04.but trying to negotiate our way back into some aspects of it, is that it?
:08:05. > :08:07.Do you think we are potentially still in the customs union? We are
:08:08. > :08:14.not in the customs union. We are leaving the EU. I'm tempted to say
:08:15. > :08:18.Brexit means Brexit at this point! The customs union is not binary.
:08:19. > :08:21.There are parts of the customs union that stop us negotiating trade deals
:08:22. > :08:25.with the rest of the world. One of them is the common external tariff
:08:26. > :08:32.and the other is the commercial co-operation policy. We will not be
:08:33. > :08:37.part of those. However, the EU, the customs union itself, has customs
:08:38. > :08:43.deals with other countries. So there is clearly a deal to be done. What
:08:44. > :08:46.we seek is a deal that gives us a fribgless transmission across
:08:47. > :08:50.borders of goods and services. Which is clearly good for a trading nation
:08:51. > :08:54.like Britain and other EU countries, but we won't be part of the common
:08:55. > :09:01.external tariff, for example. The Czech Secretary of State for EU
:09:02. > :09:05.affairs tweeted out after the speech, "the UK's plan seems
:09:06. > :09:09.ambitious, trade as free as possible, full control on
:09:10. > :09:13.immigration, where is the give for all the take?" Can you answer the
:09:14. > :09:19.question to him. What are we actually offering them that will be
:09:20. > :09:25.attractive? Which, if you like, offsets some of the disSATs factions
:09:26. > :09:29.we will have from p with us leaving the EU? We are offering them free
:09:30. > :09:33.access to unwith of the world's biggest - Us. They have that
:09:34. > :09:37.already. Presumably if they want to not have a free trade deal they
:09:38. > :09:40.wouldn't have that. That's why I say, free trade deal is good for
:09:41. > :09:45.both sides. It's not to take from us. We are not saying - we will have
:09:46. > :09:48.is a free trade deal, you can't. It's free trade both ways. Also,
:09:49. > :09:54.very importantly, there will be companies in the Czech Republic that
:09:55. > :09:58.are part of or perhaps the end of a supply chain which may well use
:09:59. > :10:02.companies in different European countries, including the UK. Keeping
:10:03. > :10:07.those companies prosperous allowing them to continue to create jobs in
:10:08. > :10:13.the Czech Republic is good for the people of the Czech Republic. If you
:10:14. > :10:17.like, we are offering that. It's - That's thin gruel given that they
:10:18. > :10:21.have all of that already... They are losing everything, aren't they? We
:10:22. > :10:26.want the scientific co-operation and the security co-operation. We are
:10:27. > :10:29.going to be - we want to be in the customs union for the good bits, we
:10:30. > :10:33.want freedom to negotiate other treaties. We are Baghdad - the only
:10:34. > :10:37.thing we are saying - we will give you the free deal, which you already
:10:38. > :10:41.have, if you don't give us this, we are going to blackmail you because
:10:42. > :10:44.we will become a tax haven and a place where all the multinationals
:10:45. > :10:47.want to go. What is wrong with that characterisation of what we are
:10:48. > :10:53.saying to them? What is wrong is your basic premise that lies behind
:10:54. > :10:55.it, it's a zero sum gain. That everything Britain gains the Czech
:10:56. > :11:00.Republic or the European Union, the other 27 will lose. It's not that.
:11:01. > :11:05.Successful negotiations of this kind give benefits to both sides. It's
:11:06. > :11:13.not one side taking the other side giving. Psychologically, the pitch
:11:14. > :11:16.we are making to them, which is - veiled blackmail at the end we will
:11:17. > :11:20.become the kind of tax haven if you don't give it to us. Essentially
:11:21. > :11:23.saying, we take away everything we don't like about the EU and, but we
:11:24. > :11:27.will give you the free trade bit, which is the bit we have always
:11:28. > :11:31.liked and always said we wanted. Is that - And other things. Is that
:11:32. > :11:36.really going to be attractive to them? No. It's cake and eat it,
:11:37. > :11:39.isn't it? It's the best deal for Britain and a good deal for the
:11:40. > :11:44.European Union. The Prime Minister made clear that, for example, on
:11:45. > :11:48.issues like money, you know, we will not contribute - We will not pay, we
:11:49. > :11:52.don't like paying. That is caked and eat it, again? There will be
:11:53. > :11:59.programmes we want to take part in that will be beneficial. The model
:12:00. > :12:03.we are proposing is utter, utter... Isn't it, we will do it a la carte.
:12:04. > :12:08.We will leave owl the bits we don't like, isn't the case they have a
:12:09. > :12:11.more holistic view of this. They like the idea of there being
:12:12. > :12:17.give-and-take. They like the idea of auto people being members of a club.
:12:18. > :12:20.Being in the room, discussing, negotiating, sorting things out,
:12:21. > :12:24.giving, like things on free movement, for example, which
:12:25. > :12:27.something... Or giving in the form of budget contributions, and being
:12:28. > :12:32.part of a big free trade area as a benefit to compensate for some of
:12:33. > :12:36.those. Even if if you are a member of a club you might want to say -
:12:37. > :12:40.this club will benefit, all the ebbs m of this club would benefit from a
:12:41. > :12:46.strategic partnership with the big people next door. What is the active
:12:47. > :12:50.ingredient in the Brexit process that will improve be a better deal
:12:51. > :12:53.for ordinary working people at home? How are ordinary people at home
:12:54. > :12:56.going to feel better off as a result of it? In that part of the speech
:12:57. > :13:01.the Prime Minister specifically talked about immigration. One of the
:13:02. > :13:07.things people have clearly been anxious about, in some cases angry
:13:08. > :13:13.about over the past 10, 15 years has been the feeling that
:13:14. > :13:16.straight-forwardly the numbers of immigration are too high. Is that
:13:17. > :13:18.Government policy, people have been worse off as a result of
:13:19. > :13:23.immigration, they would be better off when we control it? Some people
:13:24. > :13:27.have not benefitted. Some people feel and indeed in actual terms may
:13:28. > :13:30.well not have benefitted. Is it a perception thing that we are
:13:31. > :13:34.addressing it or a reality thing we are addressing? Worse off as a
:13:35. > :13:40.result of immigration or they are better off, but feel worse off? All
:13:41. > :13:45.the academic research I've seen, we can have a discussion about whether
:13:46. > :13:49.we listen to experts or not these days, shows whereas in the aggregate
:13:50. > :13:52.immigration makes the economy Iing abouter. It benefits the economy,
:13:53. > :13:56.there are people whose wages are depressed they may not be. There is
:13:57. > :13:59.a degree of reality. It's not just perception. In the campaign the
:14:00. > :14:02.referendum campaign, one of the things that had a certain resonance
:14:03. > :14:06.with people was this idea that we would spend more on the NHS if we
:14:07. > :14:10.left the EU. We would be paying less to the EU, we could put it into the
:14:11. > :14:16.NHS. Nit nit is it your view, we actually see if anything the NHS has
:14:17. > :14:20.had taken a hit in the next few weeks. Is it your view we will next
:14:21. > :14:26.see over the next five years, as a result of us leaving the EU,
:14:27. > :14:27.significantly larger amounts of money, a Brexit dividend being put
:14:28. > :14:40.into the National Health We will be paying less when we leave
:14:41. > :14:45.so that amount of money will be available to the Chancellor. But
:14:46. > :14:52.overall clearly the most important thing in terms of a dividend,
:14:53. > :14:57.whether you want to spend it on a particular public servers or
:14:58. > :15:01.anything else will depend on the underlying economy. People are
:15:02. > :15:05.concerned that we are picking the wrong guy, no longer quite as close
:15:06. > :15:11.to Angela Merkel and closer to Donald Trump who does not believe
:15:12. > :15:15.any of the stuff that you just said. You comfortable that were not
:15:16. > :15:23.mollycoddling Donald Trump to be close to him. The key is not to over
:15:24. > :15:27.personalised anything. Britain and America as countries have a lot in
:15:28. > :15:34.common with top historically. But also in our attitude to the world.
:15:35. > :15:38.And therefore it is sensible for the UK and America to continue to be
:15:39. > :15:44.close friends and that will be true lover the British Prime Minister or
:15:45. > :15:45.American president is. That is a sensible posture for the British
:15:46. > :15:49.Government to take. One of the main remaining fissures
:15:50. > :15:51.in this great Brexit debate here is membership
:15:52. > :15:56.of the customs union. Labour are inclined to keep
:15:57. > :15:58.us in it, Theresa May Chris Cook gives us a brief guide
:15:59. > :16:15.to what the implications are of one? Theresa May, in effect,
:16:16. > :16:18.announced today that Britain will not be in a so-called customs
:16:19. > :16:22.union with the EU after Brexit. Here was the critical segment,
:16:23. > :16:25.which we'll unpack. I do not want Britain to be part
:16:26. > :16:28.of the common commercial policy and I do not want us to be bound
:16:29. > :16:32.by the common external tariff. These are the elements
:16:33. > :16:35.of the customs union that prevent us from striking our own comprehensive
:16:36. > :16:38.trade agreements A customs union is an agreement
:16:39. > :16:48.to integrate country's customs policies, so no tariffs
:16:49. > :16:54.between them, good don't get stopped much at borders and it cuts down
:16:55. > :16:57.on onerous customs paperwork, Turkey has a customs union
:16:58. > :17:01.on goods with the EU, What if the EU were to set a tariff
:17:02. > :17:08.of 10% on imported cars, Companies could use Turkey to evade
:17:09. > :17:18.higher European tariffs. So the EU demands that
:17:19. > :17:20.Turkey has the same rules When the Prime Minister said
:17:21. > :17:25.we would be out of the common commercial policy and the common
:17:26. > :17:28.external tariff, she was basically So, realistically, we are out
:17:29. > :17:33.of the customs union because the Prime Minister wants
:17:34. > :17:36.to be able to cut trade deals around the world and that means being able
:17:37. > :17:42.to change tariffs and rules. This might mean tariffs,
:17:43. > :17:44.admin and EU border hassle for lots of UK goods
:17:45. > :17:48.entering the EU. For sectors that are very reliant
:17:49. > :17:51.on cross-border traffic, like aerospace and cars,
:17:52. > :17:54.we're likely to aim for an agreement which will ease their
:17:55. > :17:57.burden in particular. Those sectors might get
:17:58. > :18:03.particularly low tariffs, particularly few border checks
:18:04. > :18:05.and less form-filling. A much harder issue though
:18:06. > :18:08.is Northern Ireland, an open border with the Republic
:18:09. > :18:11.is regarded as important Officials have been considering
:18:12. > :18:16.the Norway-Sweden border solution - a hard border, but where clever use
:18:17. > :18:19.of technology allows goods to move back-and-forth
:18:20. > :18:25.without hitting too much red tape. Being out of the customs
:18:26. > :18:27.union lets us pursue an independent trade policy,
:18:28. > :18:29.but it doesn't come We are going to focus
:18:30. > :18:37.on reaction for a bit now. Nick Watt is with me,
:18:38. > :18:50.our political editor. A lot to focus on. What have you
:18:51. > :18:53.picked up from Brussels. Theresa May briefed EU leaders after his speech
:18:54. > :18:59.today and on the surface the response was reasonably friendly.
:19:00. > :19:04.Donald Tusk said the UK is being more realistic now although he
:19:05. > :19:08.described the Brexit process as sad. But dig deeper and there are
:19:09. > :19:13.concerns. I spoke to one well-placed EU Swiss who raise questions about
:19:14. > :19:16.what Chris Crook was talking about, the idea that you opt out of court
:19:17. > :19:22.elements of the customs union and then have some kind special status.
:19:23. > :19:26.The source said to me the UK is prioritising trade deals with
:19:27. > :19:32.countries outside the EU and that means one thing. That customs union
:19:33. > :19:36.is gone for the UK. And on the call for an implementation phase, this is
:19:37. > :19:39.the idea that you would phase in some elements of the UK future
:19:40. > :19:44.relationship with the EU if you do not get them agreed during the
:19:45. > :19:48.two-year divorce negotiations, the source said two things. One that
:19:49. > :19:55.that sounds like the UK is trying to hold onto some benefits of the EU
:19:56. > :19:58.but not others, and one red line on that, the source said, the
:19:59. > :20:05.fundamental rules of the EU would apply during that implementation
:20:06. > :20:12.phase. Theresa May, this kind of no deal is better than a bad deal, how
:20:13. > :20:16.has that gone down. I heard a simple description of that, it is seen as a
:20:17. > :20:19.threat and counter-productive threat at that. My source said in a
:20:20. > :20:25.negotiation you should never say what you do not want to happen. What
:20:26. > :20:29.they're saying is that that language does not well with the strength with
:20:30. > :20:30.which Theresa May said she wanted to secure the best possible trading
:20:31. > :20:33.relationship with the EU. Well, the key British
:20:34. > :20:35.argument in all this is that although we are exiting the EU,
:20:36. > :20:39.it is in the interests of the other members themselves to yield
:20:40. > :20:41.to our request for free It would be against their own
:20:42. > :20:45.interest to punish or refuse us. Our implicit vision of Europe
:20:46. > :20:48.is very a la carte and we assume there is no reason why a nation
:20:49. > :20:51.should not be able to pick areas of co-operation,
:20:52. > :20:53.as long as it is not free-riding on the costs or getting
:20:54. > :20:56.in the way of the others. But, those others may
:20:57. > :20:58.take a different view. Some may want to punish us
:20:59. > :21:01.or they may just say, you're in or out and we don't
:21:02. > :21:04.like nations picking the best bits. A little earlier, I spoke to the man
:21:05. > :21:07.responsible for European affairs in the Italian government,
:21:08. > :21:16.Sandro Gozi. I SDP was happy with what he heard
:21:17. > :21:22.today from Theresa May. I think it was very clear, and clarity was much
:21:23. > :21:29.needed from the British Government. Now we have a clear framework as a
:21:30. > :21:35.basis for negotiation. So we like the clarity. Just take an example of
:21:36. > :21:41.something, the customs union. We are going to come out of it. But we want
:21:42. > :21:46.to get back into the bits of it that we like. Not having bureaucratic
:21:47. > :21:51.controls, being able to sign our own trade agreements around the world.
:21:52. > :22:03.Is that a realistic objective. What I found rather odd from the speech
:22:04. > :22:08.is that Theresa May said the UK should not be huffing and out. The
:22:09. > :22:13.UK has always been half in and half out in the European Union because we
:22:14. > :22:25.have given the British people so many exceptions since you joined the
:22:26. > :22:29.economic community in 1973. Things like opting out. Talking now about
:22:30. > :22:34.the customs union today is premature, we need to start
:22:35. > :22:40.negotiations and we will see if this is the solution in actual terms
:22:41. > :22:45.which is going to be in our mutual interests. Mutual interest is key
:22:46. > :22:48.because the British are saying it is in your interests to come to a free
:22:49. > :22:55.trade deal and have lots of corporation. When you think about
:22:56. > :23:02.it, it does seem it is in your interests so how can you refuse? I
:23:03. > :23:10.am able to think of my interests are my own. The interests are to keep a
:23:11. > :23:16.solid European Union which we want to deepen. I do not need London to
:23:17. > :23:22.tell me what is in my interests, I'm very willing to open a very loyal
:23:23. > :23:28.negotiation with the British Government, with the government who
:23:29. > :23:34.is a friend of ours. Do you think the agenda that she set out today on
:23:35. > :23:38.free trade and cooperation on Security and science and other
:23:39. > :23:45.areas, do you think that list of demands is achievable? Certainly it
:23:46. > :23:51.is important to keep very close corporation with Britain on
:23:52. > :23:56.security. I think whilst the UK, once they've left the EU we have an
:23:57. > :24:01.interest in negotiating a trade agreement and even a strong trade
:24:02. > :24:05.agreement but on the model we have with other non-European member
:24:06. > :24:09.states. And on the customs union, the devil is in the detail. What do
:24:10. > :24:16.you think of the implied threat that Britain could become a tax haven? As
:24:17. > :24:20.I see it there is not a spirit of revenge anywhere, no one wants to
:24:21. > :24:29.have revenge, revenge on what. So I do not think it is necessary to
:24:30. > :24:33.evoke any kind of threats. And I think evoking a threat is totally
:24:34. > :24:41.useless and will not affect in any way the negotiation which must be
:24:42. > :24:45.based on mutual trust and loyal Corporation but not on threats of
:24:46. > :24:49.any kind. Who is going to lose more at the end of this, do you think the
:24:50. > :24:56.British will be worse off or the rest of the EU? The British will be
:24:57. > :25:01.worst off. In any case it is a damage limitation process, it is a
:25:02. > :25:06.loss for you to have the UK out, it will be a big loss for the UK to
:25:07. > :25:12.leave the EU. But we are friends and we need to handle negotiations to
:25:13. > :25:18.limit the damage. Both for us and for you but for you the damage can
:25:19. > :25:22.be big. A lot of British people if we -- say if we can stay in all the
:25:23. > :25:27.bits that we want to stay in, it sounds like a good deal. Would it
:25:28. > :25:32.not be tempting for the people of Italy or other countries in Europe?
:25:33. > :25:36.I agree with you when you say we must reform the European Union.
:25:37. > :25:43.Since I was in government with Matteo Renzi and now, we are very
:25:44. > :25:49.convinced that we must reform the European Union. But to stay in the
:25:50. > :25:54.community you cannot simply pick and choose what you like and neither
:25:55. > :25:58.aside what you do not like. If everyone thinks only of the
:25:59. > :26:02.advantages we would not have a community any more, we would not
:26:03. > :26:04.have the EU any more and that would not be an interest. Thank you for
:26:05. > :26:07.us. So much for the reaction
:26:08. > :26:10.on the continent. In a moment, we'll think
:26:11. > :26:12.about the politics of it here, but first, Jeremy Corbyn,
:26:13. > :26:14.Labour leader. What did he make of
:26:15. > :26:19.Theresa May's clarity? Well, she set out the plan,
:26:20. > :26:23.of a sort, in Lancaster house and then presumably at some point
:26:24. > :26:29.she is going to take questions in Parliament about it
:26:30. > :26:31.other than just at In the plan that she put forward,
:26:32. > :26:37.there seemed to be an implied threat, basically to say to Europe,
:26:38. > :26:40.this is the deal we want. We want access to the market,
:26:41. > :26:43.we want partial or no access to the customs union,
:26:44. > :26:50.we want to get on with you on everything and
:26:51. > :26:56.agree on everything. And by the way, if you don't,
:26:57. > :27:01.we are going to adopt a totally different economic model of a low
:27:02. > :27:03.corporate taxation haven on the shores of Europe that
:27:04. > :27:05.will undermine everything Europe It seems a very odd way
:27:06. > :27:09.of approaching a constructive relationship with the whole
:27:10. > :27:10.continent. And it's not the vision you would
:27:11. > :27:13.want as a British economic model, but you probably do need some kind
:27:14. > :27:16.of threat, don't you? You're going to be dealing
:27:17. > :27:18.with 27 other countries and you want to focus their minds
:27:19. > :27:21.on giving us all the things that we kind of want,
:27:22. > :27:23.like trade and access. As we go into these negotiations,
:27:24. > :27:26.surely we should recognise a couple of perhaps unwelcome facts,
:27:27. > :27:28.that nearly half of our trade is with the European Union,
:27:29. > :27:31.an awful lot of manufacturing industry in Britain relies directly
:27:32. > :27:33.on partial manufacturing Britain And then she threw into the middle
:27:34. > :27:40.of it, oh, by the way, Donald Trump says we are at the head
:27:41. > :27:43.of the queue for future trade deals. Well, Donald Trump's idea of trade
:27:44. > :27:48.deals seems to be to promote the power of corporations over
:27:49. > :27:51.nation states, or a tariff I think it's a bit risky to bank
:27:52. > :27:58.anything on Donald Trump. You mentioned the vote
:27:59. > :28:01.at the end of the process. One of the things that I know
:28:02. > :28:04.is confusing some of us is, what happens if Parliament
:28:05. > :28:06.at the end of the process, Do we have a second referendum,
:28:07. > :28:12.do we stay in the EU, do we ask the Prime Minister to go
:28:13. > :28:15.back and negotiate another deal? Well, we are quite a long way away
:28:16. > :28:22.from that situation, but as of now, Parliament will implement Article
:28:23. > :28:27.50, we'll put a view up on market access,
:28:28. > :28:31.the points we have always been making, we will be putting up a view
:28:32. > :28:39.on parliamentary scrutiny. And then eventually all the member
:28:40. > :28:42.states' Parliaments will get a view ahead of that of the European
:28:43. > :28:46.Parliament. The idea all this is going to be
:28:47. > :28:49.efficient, clean and done and dusted in two years,
:28:50. > :28:51.I think is a bit But what happens at the end
:28:52. > :28:55.if we don't like it, or if you don't like it,
:28:56. > :28:58.because if your MPs vote Well, our line is we want
:28:59. > :29:01.to protect jobs and living We want to ensure that our
:29:02. > :29:06.manufacturing industry We do not want to go
:29:07. > :29:13.in the direction of a race to the bottom competition
:29:14. > :29:17.where we lower corporate rates of taxation because doing
:29:18. > :29:19.that would obviously If we model ourselves
:29:20. > :29:31.on the Cayman Islands, the British Virgin islands,
:29:32. > :29:33.or tax havens around the world, where is the money going to be
:29:34. > :29:36.for education, for health, for housing, all the things that
:29:37. > :29:38.actually matter in people's lives? Are you excited by Brexit
:29:39. > :29:41.by the next two years? Do you think maybe you would
:29:42. > :29:43.advocate going back to the blue black British passports,
:29:44. > :29:45.or getting away from Just the sort of emotional feel
:29:46. > :29:49.about Brexit, is it one I do not want us to be
:29:50. > :29:59.an isolated country, I do not want us to say
:30:00. > :30:01.to our children, sorry, you will not have a chance to go
:30:02. > :30:05.and study at a European University. They will not have a
:30:06. > :30:12.chance to come here. I do not want us
:30:13. > :30:14.to cut ourselves off. Either from Europe or from
:30:15. > :30:17.the rest of the world. We have to have a foreign policy
:30:18. > :30:21.where we promote peace, justice, human rights and democracy
:30:22. > :30:23.around the world. We have to have a trade relationship
:30:24. > :30:26.with people that is fair All those things I see
:30:27. > :30:29.as a huge opportunity. It is going to be
:30:30. > :30:31.a fascinating next two years. We are very clear, our priorities
:30:32. > :30:34.are living standards, Let's discuss the Prime Minister's
:30:35. > :30:46.speech now with broadcaster and Brexit supporter,
:30:47. > :30:54.Julia Hartley-Brewer Evening. Julia were you happy with
:30:55. > :31:04.what you heard in I was. I was waiting for the "but" it did tick
:31:05. > :31:08.every box. Your side very happy. Got our cake and eating it. Nothing
:31:09. > :31:12.about compromising. People voted to leave. We are going to leave.
:31:13. > :31:17.Nothing about compromise. What about your side, Polly? I think everybody
:31:18. > :31:20.who voted remain is, basically, grieving today. People have held on
:31:21. > :31:25.for six months to this idea that there might be some kind of soft
:31:26. > :31:30.Brexit. Might have a Norwegian model or Swiss model. It's gone. Theresa
:31:31. > :31:33.May made the decision, it's about immigration at any cost. That means
:31:34. > :31:37.we can't be part of the single market or the customs union. She had
:31:38. > :31:41.a big passage on the country must unify, we are going to unify. It's
:31:42. > :31:47.OK we are a united people. We can put the referendum behind us. Do you
:31:48. > :31:53.think your side will buy into that vision? I think it's galling to be
:31:54. > :31:56.told to unify with somebody you fundamentally disagree with and get
:31:57. > :32:01.in line because, sorry, you lost. The rhetoric - What are the other
:32:02. > :32:05.options, you lost. That's true. We should say, we won't leave the EU
:32:06. > :32:10.even though more people wanted to leave the EU than wanted to stay in
:32:11. > :32:14.a binary vote. I don't understand what compromise you think there is.
:32:15. > :32:19.The soft Brexit type options. It's not Brexit. It is. The more people
:32:20. > :32:23.thought about it, when you think about the offers you are going to
:32:24. > :32:27.get, you basically stay in or virtually in or... Absolutely. Lots
:32:28. > :32:31.of people have been clinging to the hope we will stay partly in. I don't
:32:32. > :32:35.think lots of people have. Most of the remainers I know, many wanted us
:32:36. > :32:39.to get on with it. They are happy and accept the democratic vote. I
:32:40. > :32:44.wonder... You are describing your set, Polly. Is it 80% of the country
:32:45. > :32:48.will say - that is what we voted for, you know, it sounds perfectly
:32:49. > :32:52.straight-forward and Theresa May has got a clarity about it and a
:32:53. > :32:58.simplicity about it? When you look at the polling there is a big group
:32:59. > :33:02.of people who would say they prioritise single market access and
:33:03. > :33:07.economic access over immigration. People like Theresa May decided
:33:08. > :33:12.immigration comes first. A substantial part of the population,
:33:13. > :33:16.40%, will be dancing on top of the table. We all have access to the
:33:17. > :33:20.single market. With he have to stop using the term - everybody does. You
:33:21. > :33:25.will acknowledge there is a chance the deal will be less pleasant than
:33:26. > :33:29.the one? I accept that we may end up with no deal. I'm willing - I like
:33:30. > :33:34.most levers are willing to accept that. Worst-case scenario. No blame
:33:35. > :33:38.will be attached to the Europeans? Like David Cameron with his
:33:39. > :33:43.negotiations. We dediscovered before hand it was a fake negotiation. To
:33:44. > :33:49.no pretence. Had he asked for less than he said he would ask and less
:33:50. > :33:55.than theure leaders thaw thought they would ask for. If people feel
:33:56. > :33:58.that Theresa May means what she says and goes in, be confident and strong
:33:59. > :34:01.and lay it on the table I don't think they will blame her. I think
:34:02. > :34:08.they will blame the other EU laiders. If we talk about the
:34:09. > :34:11.politics. Good for the Liberal Democrats, it polarises it around if
:34:12. > :34:16.you are a grieving remainor you know where to go, basically. There is
:34:17. > :34:19.only one party that has a clear let's stay in the single market and
:34:20. > :34:22.maintain a close relationship with Europe, that is the Liberal
:34:23. > :34:26.Democrats. The SNP in Scotland. The Labour Party is falling to pieces
:34:27. > :34:31.over this. I think the person who came out of today is worst is Jeremy
:34:32. > :34:37.Corbyn. What about Ukip, Julia? Does it kill Ukip? I have to say you can
:34:38. > :34:41.see on Twitter and online Ukip were being, oh, God, she is stealing all
:34:42. > :34:44.our clothes. It depends what happens in these upcoming by-elections,
:34:45. > :34:48.particularly what happens in Stoke-on-Trent Central. If Ukip are
:34:49. > :34:54.going to win any seat, they will win Stoke. Who will vote for Ukip rather
:34:55. > :34:59.than the Tories? That is the Irish issue. Theresa May is offering what
:35:00. > :35:02.they are are offering. How much do people trust Theresa May. People do
:35:03. > :35:05.trust Theresa May. It's an opportunity for the Lib Dems. Apart
:35:06. > :35:11.from the whole - we don't believe in democratic votes thing. It might put
:35:12. > :35:19.off quite a lot of voters. Julia, Polly, thank you very much indeed.
:35:20. > :35:21.Now, the irony was not lost on anyone today.
:35:22. > :35:23.Britain is aiming to become more global -
:35:24. > :35:26.in the words of Theresa May - just as the US is arguably
:35:27. > :35:30.Donald Trump is talking about protection and, in doing so,
:35:31. > :35:32.disrupting the normal rules based system of world trade.
:35:33. > :35:35.So guess who stepped up to the plate today to defend the system
:35:36. > :35:38.It was Xi Jinping, the President of China,
:35:39. > :35:41.over at the World Economic Forum in Davos, that's the annual
:35:42. > :35:43.conference that the grown-ups of globalisation go to and where
:35:44. > :35:47.Xi's speech was a defence of that globalised order.
:35:48. > :35:52.TRANSLATION: It's true that economic globalisation has
:35:53. > :35:54.created new problems, but this is no justification to
:35:55. > :36:00.Rather we should guide and adapt to globalisation,
:36:01. > :36:02.cushion its negative impact and deliver its benefits
:36:03. > :36:15.That was in a translation, obviously.
:36:16. > :36:17.Is Xi's appearance there now some kind of global leadership bid?
:36:18. > :36:21.The author and China watcher, Isabel Hilton, thinks it might be.
:36:22. > :36:24.In February 1972, the then President of the United States,
:36:25. > :36:27.Richard Nixon, visited Beijing, the capital of a country the US
:36:28. > :36:31.didn't recognise and whose economy was smaller than Belgium's.
:36:32. > :36:33.Its leader, Mao Zedong, had left China only twice,
:36:34. > :36:37.both times to visit the Soviet Union.
:36:38. > :36:40.This morning, his successor, Xi Jinping, was the headline act
:36:41. > :36:50.We got here because the US built a global trading
:36:51. > :36:52.system and a liberal rules -based international order.
:36:53. > :36:54.China didn't buy the values, but profited from the globalisation.
:36:55. > :37:01.So as Donald Trump talks of dismantling the system,
:37:02. > :37:05.China's communist leader is now its biggest deffender.
:37:06. > :37:08.Americanism, not globalism, will be our new credo.
:37:09. > :37:13.It's the new moment in the complex relationship between two global
:37:14. > :37:19.giants, one rising and one established power.
:37:20. > :37:21.Each measures itself against the other, both argue
:37:22. > :37:24.Both have super rich elites and both leaders promote
:37:25. > :37:33.Tensions between them have rarely been higher.
:37:34. > :37:38.Two years ago, Beijing's required reading wasn't the thoughts of Mao,
:37:39. > :37:40.but the Thucydides trap, the theory that conflict
:37:41. > :37:45.between a rising and an established power is as inevitable today
:37:46. > :37:52.as it was when Athens and Sparta went to war 2,500 years ago.
:37:53. > :37:54.Donald Trump 's advisers seem to agree.
:37:55. > :37:58.He does want to rewrite the global rules in China's
:37:59. > :38:00.favour, but he argues that everybody would benefit.
:38:01. > :38:09.Donald Trump is more of a zero-sum thinker - if he wins,
:38:10. > :38:14.Making America great again doesn't seem to come with global benefits.
:38:15. > :38:15.Thucydides argued that war was inevitable because of
:38:16. > :38:27.# You can't always get what you want...
:38:28. > :38:31.#. Donald Trump's mood swings
:38:32. > :38:33.are alarmingly familiar by now and Xi Jinping stands to gain
:38:34. > :38:35.by presenting himself Until now, China's bid for global
:38:36. > :38:38.leadership has been constrained With President Trump,
:38:39. > :38:45.that may come to matter rather less. Well, I suppose the question
:38:46. > :38:48.is whether China really can be a global leader and free trade
:38:49. > :38:51.champion, or whether it just talks Isabel Hilton is with me,
:38:52. > :38:54.and from Washington, Dan Blumenthal, the director of Asian Studies
:38:55. > :39:02.at the American Do you think China is a serious
:39:03. > :39:09.grownup player with potential leadership potential? I think it's a
:39:10. > :39:15.very serious player, but I don't think it can lead or wants to lead
:39:16. > :39:21.on issues of open markets and globalisation. It lacks the rule of
:39:22. > :39:28.law. It carries a massive trade surplus, market reforms within China
:39:29. > :39:37.itself have gone away since about 2003-2004. It's highly indebted. It
:39:38. > :39:43.doesn't allow individual freedoms or freedoms that help markets work, in
:39:44. > :39:47.terms of information and access. So I think it's certainly a serious
:39:48. > :39:53.player, but it's not going to lead the world in further liberalisation.
:39:54. > :39:57.What do you think Xi was trying to go then, in the weeks of Trump
:39:58. > :40:08.inAugustation and laying out the manifesto, the Davos manifesto. What
:40:09. > :40:15.was going on there then? -- inaugration. I think he's current
:40:16. > :40:18.that President-elect Trump might take actions with respect to China
:40:19. > :40:22.that he wouldn't want to happen. He does want to avoid what people call
:40:23. > :40:28.a trade war with respect to the US and China. China is not in a good
:40:29. > :40:33.economic position. It's stagnating. It's not in a terrific political
:40:34. > :40:38.situation. Xi certainly has a lot of enemies. He cannot really afford a
:40:39. > :40:44.relationship with the United States or with anyone really that gets too
:40:45. > :40:49.contentious. So I think he's... I think that's what he is speaking to.
:40:50. > :40:57.I think he certainly does still need access to the US market. I do think
:40:58. > :41:03.he's, in some ways, trying to persuade and convince through Davos
:41:04. > :41:08.and the globalised elites of President Trump not to take tough
:41:09. > :41:12.action on traded vis-a-vis China. China is not the great global
:41:13. > :41:17.player, is it? Not such a great citizen? It's the second largest
:41:18. > :41:21.economy in the world. That's true. It achieved that within 40 years
:41:22. > :41:31.because of globalisation. China will do what it takes to defend
:41:32. > :41:35.globalisation. President-elect Trump has insulted every major ally the
:41:36. > :41:41.United States has. He said you can depend on us not to walk away from
:41:42. > :41:45.commitments, defend the systems we signed and the system that supported
:41:46. > :41:49.all of us it's extremely unclear what the United States is going to
:41:50. > :41:53.do. It's a message, coming out of a certain vulnerability. They stand to
:41:54. > :41:56.lose - Absolutely. Who isn't vulnerable. Who doesn't stand to
:41:57. > :42:01.lose if the global system descends into chaos? I can't see what the
:42:02. > :42:05.United States stands to gain either. Dan, how much disruption to the
:42:06. > :42:11.world rules-based system is Donald Trump going to be? He has said a lot
:42:12. > :42:16.of tough. I will slap tariffs on BMW cars from Mexico. That would breach
:42:17. > :42:21.the rules-based system. Is he going to go through with it? We are at a
:42:22. > :42:25.point where we have to wait and see what his Cabinet and what his
:42:26. > :42:32.economic team and what his State Department wants to do. Because just
:42:33. > :42:39.today, for example, he came out against the border adjustment
:42:40. > :42:46.tariff. He came out against labelling China currency
:42:47. > :42:49.manipulator. Certainly, his Secretary of Defence and Secretary
:42:50. > :42:52.of State talked about the importance of American leadership and the
:42:53. > :42:57.importance of human rights and democracy and free, ma. We will have
:42:58. > :43:00.to wait and see. It's something entirely new. The United States has
:43:01. > :43:06.never elected an outsider before. Certainly not one with a career
:43:07. > :43:09.outside of politics. So we are really going to have to wait and see
:43:10. > :43:14.what the team decides to do once it's in place. Is that what really
:43:15. > :43:19.hinges it for China is whether Trump turns out to be the more
:43:20. > :43:23.conventional Trump or outlandish Trump? I haven't seen the more
:43:24. > :43:28.conventional Trump, perhaps you have. China bashing in an elections
:43:29. > :43:32.campaign is standard practice in the United States. What is different
:43:33. > :43:37.here is the behaviour of the transition of the President-elect
:43:38. > :43:41.and Mr Tillerson who threatens to stop China accessing islands in the
:43:42. > :43:46.South China Sea without apparently any means of doing it. I think we
:43:47. > :43:47.are in for some interesting We certainly are times. . Thank you
:43:48. > :44:08.very much indeed. The inauguration of President Trump
:44:09. > :44:13.is on Friday. Tomorrow we have the view of blogger Andrew Sullivan. But
:44:14. > :44:18.tonight we start with Mr Kimball. Next to the election
:44:19. > :44:20.of Donald J Trump, the most remarkable thing about the US
:44:21. > :44:23.presidential election of 2016 has to be the reaction
:44:24. > :44:27.to the election of Donald J Trump. I cannot recall a greater outpouring
:44:28. > :44:32.of rage, angst, paranoia, At universities across the country,
:44:33. > :44:44.professors, deans and college presidents have circulated
:44:45. > :44:46.community wide memoranda registering their shock, confusion,
:44:47. > :44:48.and fear at the prospect Colleges are offering
:44:49. > :44:54.special safe places, replete with grief counsellors,
:44:55. > :44:58.puppies, and Play-Doh Meanwhile, Donald Trump has
:44:59. > :45:08.assembled a cabinet of astonishing General James "Mad Dog" Mattis
:45:09. > :45:16.for Secretary of Defence. Senator Jeff Sessions
:45:17. > :45:19.for Attorney General. Exxon's Rex Tillerson
:45:20. > :45:24.for Secretary of State. But given the yeasty
:45:25. > :45:26.and histrionic environment that Mr Trump is entering,
:45:27. > :45:30.he would be well advised to take a page from the Prince Machiavelli's
:45:31. > :45:35."how to" handbook for aspiring I'm thinking in particular
:45:36. > :45:43.of Machiavelli's astute observation that if you have to do unpleasant
:45:44. > :45:47.things, do them all at one stroke so as not to have
:45:48. > :45:51.to repeat them daily. The success of Mr Trump's
:45:52. > :45:54.administration will But all will be for
:45:55. > :46:04.naught if he tarries. It's not just the first 100
:46:05. > :46:08.days that will matter. He should sit down at his desk
:46:09. > :46:16.the afternoon of January 20 and rescind every executive order
:46:17. > :46:20.issued by President Obama. On day one, Trump should also order
:46:21. > :46:29.that America's immigration He should endorse the Keystone
:46:30. > :46:32.pipeline, embrace fracking, and rescind the punitive
:46:33. > :46:39.regulation on coal. Obamacare, he said a few days back,
:46:40. > :46:42.has been a catastrophic event that must be repealed,
:46:43. > :46:45.probably sometime next week. And replaced very quickly,
:46:46. > :46:49.or simultaneously. All of this should be
:46:50. > :46:52.announced in the course of his inauguration speech,
:46:53. > :46:56.or immediately afterwards. The media will howl, the political
:46:57. > :47:02.establishment will squeal. But they will have been rendered
:47:03. > :47:06.impotent and irrelevant Now, a little over an hour ago,
:47:07. > :47:21.news came from the US that Chelsea Manning,
:47:22. > :47:23.who had been imprisoned for 35 years for leaking a cache of classified
:47:24. > :47:26.diplomatic files to Wikileaks - has had her sentence
:47:27. > :47:28.commuted by President Obama, Born Bradley Manning,
:47:29. > :47:35.she will be freed on 17 May instead The leak was one of the largest
:47:36. > :47:41.breaches of classified I'm joined via Skype
:47:42. > :47:45.now by Glenn Greenwald, the journalist and campaigner
:47:46. > :48:02.who has met Chelsea Manning What state was she in when you saw?
:48:03. > :48:08.I solve it in 2014 and her spirits were quite good. She was building a
:48:09. > :48:12.life in prison and in the process of transitioning to a woman which is
:48:13. > :48:17.what she had wanted for a long time. I was struck by how good she was but
:48:18. > :48:22.I spent probably hundreds of hours since with her on the telephone and
:48:23. > :48:26.in the past 12 or 16 months her mental state and condition had
:48:27. > :48:31.deteriorated significantly. She became depressed and tried twice to
:48:32. > :48:35.commit suicide and was punished for it by prison authorities. Clearly
:48:36. > :48:42.there was a risk to her well-being if not her life if she remained in
:48:43. > :48:46.this prison. It is a commutation and not a pardon and there is a
:48:47. > :48:50.difference. If you're pardoned the crime is written off and if you are
:48:51. > :48:55.commuted it is the sentence that is written. It bother you, that
:48:56. > :49:00.distinction and the fact that it was not a pardon. If I had my wish I
:49:01. > :49:03.would have wished she had been pardoned, I do not think she should
:49:04. > :49:09.have spent a single day in prison. But when someone you admire and has
:49:10. > :49:13.inspired millions around the world faces another 30 years in prison,
:49:14. > :49:24.and instead you find out she will be there just for four months, your is
:49:25. > :49:27.not to complain or think about how things could be better but to be
:49:28. > :49:29.happy for her that she will be liberated. Where does she stand in
:49:30. > :49:32.the pantheon of great whistle-blowers in your opinion.
:49:33. > :49:39.Well Daniel Ellsberg, widely regarded as probably the pioneer of
:49:40. > :49:44.this, a hero for showing the American people how the US
:49:45. > :49:48.Government was lying to them about the Vietnam War, he said that
:49:49. > :49:57.Chelsea Manning was who he was waiting for for 40 years. So I agree
:49:58. > :50:04.that there was a similar motive and an extreme amount of courage. Either
:50:05. > :50:11.implications for Julian Assange? I do not think so, he said on Twitter
:50:12. > :50:17.a couple of days ago that if a banner would commute the sentence of
:50:18. > :50:26.Chelsea Manning he would be willing to come to the US. -- Obama. I think
:50:27. > :50:31.it - is and reminds us that with WikiLeaks they have performed
:50:32. > :50:35.important journalistic services. But I do not think it will affect the
:50:36. > :50:38.current situation of Julian Assange. Thank you very much.
:50:39. > :51:01.Wednesday begins with a frost across much of East Anglia and south-east
:51:02. > :51:09.England, a hard frost in the countryside but some sunny spells to
:51:10. > :51:14.follow. There will be a lot of cloud around but dry across Northern
:51:15. > :51:19.Ireland. Some patchy drizzle into the West of Scotland into the