:00:00. > :00:00.Was Theresa May's upbeat speech about a mutually beneficial EU
:00:00. > :00:13.Judging by the reaction of EU leaders today,
:00:14. > :00:19.The French boss of the IMF told Newsnight has this warning.
:00:20. > :00:27.When you belong to a club, whatever that is, either sports or
:00:28. > :00:30.intellectual, whatever, the members of the club have a degree of
:00:31. > :00:36.affinity and particular terms under by they operate. Somebody outside
:00:37. > :00:41.the club sport or intellectual or whatever have a different access.
:00:42. > :00:41.is was both the EU Trade Commissioner
:00:42. > :00:45.and the head of the World Post election chaos
:00:46. > :00:50.in Gambia tonight - the defeated President refuses
:00:51. > :00:52.to go, thousands flee fearing bloodshed, as Nigerian and Sengalese
:00:53. > :00:54.military forces prepare What's it like to watch
:00:55. > :01:01.on as your country is under threat? And could Trump be
:01:02. > :01:03.a tyrant in the making. Eventually he stands alone,
:01:04. > :01:13.offering the addled, distracted and self-indulgent
:01:14. > :01:15.citizens a kind of relief from democracy's endless
:01:16. > :01:30.choices and insecurities. Now that the Prime Minister had laid
:01:31. > :01:34.out her vision for Brexit, skills in diplomacy and negotiation,
:01:35. > :01:36.both from British politicians and civil servants,
:01:37. > :01:39.are at a premium. Obviously someone forgot to tell
:01:40. > :01:44.that to the Foreign Secretary, who, in comments made in India,
:01:45. > :01:47.appeared to throw shade Boris Johnson compared
:01:48. > :01:50.the French President to a character in a WWII movie administering
:01:51. > :01:55."punishment beatings" after, apparently, an aide to Hollande said
:01:56. > :01:58.that Britain shouldn't expect a better trading relationship
:01:59. > :02:01.with the EU after Brexit. Maybe it's a good thing
:02:02. > :02:03.that the Foreign Secratry isn't in Davos where all the talk
:02:04. > :02:06.is about the manner of Brexit. Our economics editor Kamal Ahmed
:02:07. > :02:19.is in the swiss resort this evening. Lots of reaction to Theresa May's
:02:20. > :02:26.speech, but what is the news in Davos about it? Well, I think
:02:27. > :02:31.Kirstie, today here in Davos we had the sort of day after the party. I
:02:32. > :02:36.think the speech itself, while not made here by Theresa May, went down
:02:37. > :02:40.pretty well. There is this idea at least we had some certainty all the
:02:41. > :02:43.nods and winks about being in or out of the single market were over.
:02:44. > :02:49.Theresa May made it clear Britain was coming out of the European
:02:50. > :02:56.Union, but today, a bit of the hand over, the day after. We have had
:02:57. > :03:00.news today from banks here, HSBC based in London and the Swiss bank
:03:01. > :03:04.UBS they will be moving jobs or are looking at moving them from London,
:03:05. > :03:07.on to the European continent, because Britain would be out of the
:03:08. > :03:12.single market and that would mean that some of their service, they
:03:13. > :03:17.provide from London, would have to be provided from within the European
:03:18. > :03:22.Union, and as you say, Kirstie, noises off from the Foreign
:03:23. > :03:27.Secretary, some negative reactions from France, to the comments by
:03:28. > :03:31.Boris Johnson and really a negative thought today, from Davos. Don't
:03:32. > :03:34.forget here, most businesses supported Britain remaining in the
:03:35. > :03:38.European Union. So it is a particular type of cohort you get in
:03:39. > :03:43.Britain, which doesn't mean they speak for the whole of British
:03:44. > :03:46.business. Earlier today I interviewed the head of the
:03:47. > :03:51.international monetary fund, Christine Lagarde who has been
:03:52. > :03:58.negative about Brexit in the past, and I started by asking her if the
:03:59. > :04:00.yuck leaving the single market -- UK leaving the single market would be
:04:01. > :04:03.You have to look at all the parameters.
:04:04. > :04:05.You have to look at the monetary policy, the exchange rate,
:04:06. > :04:10.You have to look at the engines for growth, whether that very
:04:11. > :04:12.solid UK consumption which has held the economy together,
:04:13. > :04:19.and better than we had thought, will last.
:04:20. > :04:21.Whether investment, both domestic and from the rest
:04:22. > :04:23.of the world, will persist, or whether there will be
:04:24. > :04:25.a significant reduction, and under what terms the exports
:04:26. > :04:27.will eventually take place between the UK
:04:28. > :04:32.What I know for sure is that there's a lot of work to be done
:04:33. > :04:38.in the coming weeks, months and possibly years.
:04:39. > :04:40.Risks to economic growth, then, for Britain and
:04:41. > :04:44.for the European Union through this process?
:04:45. > :04:46.Uncertainty is always a risk, and we know where
:04:47. > :04:50.As you pointed out, the UK is still in the European Union,
:04:51. > :04:53.and trade and movement of capitals and operations of banks
:04:54. > :04:55.are still being conducted under the same pattern
:04:56. > :04:59.What it is two years after the trigger has been pulled -
:05:00. > :05:08.Before the referendum, the IMF was very clear
:05:09. > :05:11.that the results of a Brexit vote, you said yourself, would go
:05:12. > :05:14.The UK economy has defied expectations,
:05:15. > :05:27.Were you wrong when you said that before the referendum?
:05:28. > :05:29.I think what has been extraordinary is firstly the action
:05:30. > :05:32.of the Bank of England, which has sort of instantly taken
:05:33. > :05:33.hold of the situation, decided remedies,
:05:34. > :05:36.and supported the economy in a very, very vigorous and efficient way.
:05:37. > :05:39.What has also been quite remarkable is the behaviour
:05:40. > :05:50.The way in which, with confidence, they've continued to consume
:05:51. > :05:54.Now, we are still of the view that, particularly on the investment
:05:55. > :05:57.front, and on the export or trade front, there is still yet to come.
:05:58. > :06:00.And by that I mean, once uncertainty clears, and if people feel
:06:01. > :06:03.that their ability to set up shop in the UK and operate throughout
:06:04. > :06:05.the geographical area that is the European Union
:06:06. > :06:08.is not working as well as it did, their investment
:06:09. > :06:38.In the same vein, if exports are subject to significant tariffs,
:06:39. > :06:40.restrictions and so on, the ability of the UK
:06:41. > :06:43.to activate that trade engine is going to be reduced.
:06:44. > :06:44.So while we have upgraded our forecast for 2017,
:06:45. > :06:55.We are still of the view that it will not be positive
:06:56. > :07:02.Can I just put a quote to you by the Maltese Prime Minister,
:07:03. > :07:05.Joseph Muscat, who said that any UK-EU deal necessarily needs to be
:07:06. > :07:07.inferior to membership of the European Union.
:07:08. > :07:14.You know, when you belong to a club, whatever that is,
:07:15. > :07:17.either sports or intellectual, whatever, the members of the club
:07:18. > :07:19.have a degree of affinity, and particular terms
:07:20. > :07:27.Somebody outside the club, sports or intellectual or whatever,
:07:28. > :07:32.have a different access, and I think he's referring to that.
:07:33. > :07:35.So it would be a less good deal for Britain?
:07:36. > :07:38.It would certainly be different, and if being part of a club
:07:39. > :07:39.is optimising and leveraging your membership,
:07:40. > :07:50.We're here at Davos, a big debate that you've been very
:07:51. > :07:52.closely involved in for many years about equality, about elite,
:07:53. > :07:56.about the way the world operates and economies operate,
:07:57. > :07:59.does it give you a sense that it's all a little bit ridiculous?
:08:00. > :08:01.That we are speaking here in this resort,
:08:02. > :08:03.where you can look out there at business people
:08:04. > :08:15.This is just totally out of touch, is it not, with the real world?
:08:16. > :08:17.Everyone is talking here about inequality, but actually,
:08:18. > :08:19.it's just completely out of touch, and it's slightly ridiculous.
:08:20. > :08:22.The world looks at this and thinks, you just don't get it.
:08:23. > :08:25.I think it was your former Prime Minister, Winston Churchill,
:08:26. > :08:28.who said that it is better to chat-chat than to war-war,
:08:29. > :08:30.and whether you talk economics or whether you talk military,
:08:31. > :08:33.people have a tendency to confront, to have adversarial debates,
:08:34. > :08:38.and if they are here to talk, to have a dialogue,
:08:39. > :08:44.to confront their views to other people's views,
:08:45. > :08:45.who don't necessarily look like them.
:08:46. > :08:48.You have a lot of NGOs present here, you have a lot of young leaders,
:08:49. > :08:51.a lot of global shapers, who are not the ones that
:08:52. > :08:53.you've just portrayed, and there is huge value in that.
:08:54. > :08:56.So, easy to criticise, and value to be had from people
:08:57. > :08:58.actually confronting their views and trying to make sense
:08:59. > :09:00.of the negative and positive narratives
:09:01. > :09:07.Our Prime Minister, Theresa May, has criticised what she calls
:09:08. > :09:12.Do you think of yourself as a citizen of nowhere?
:09:13. > :09:20.You know, what defines your citizenship is your language,
:09:21. > :09:22.your culture, your background, your education, your family roots,
:09:23. > :09:25.the smell of the trees in the morning.
:09:26. > :09:39.But can you see the critics might say, for someone like you, the head
:09:40. > :09:42.of the International Monetary Fund, you live a different life,
:09:43. > :09:50.I have to care for far more people than my community,
:09:51. > :09:53.and what I'm trying to do is to help the entire community,
:09:54. > :10:04.Some of them have rock bottom GDP per capita.
:10:05. > :10:07.Others are 50 times better off, but we have to care for all of them,
:10:08. > :10:09.because our mission is stability, and without stability,
:10:10. > :10:11.whether it's in defence terms or economic terms,
:10:12. > :10:20.But what if all the diplomacy and negotiating skills the UK can
:10:21. > :10:23.muster don't get us a trade deal with the EU, and we have
:10:24. > :10:25.to fall back on membership of the World Trade organisation?
:10:26. > :10:28.In a moment, I'll be talking to Pascal Lamy,
:10:29. > :10:38.But first here's our policy editor Chris Cook.
:10:39. > :10:44.This week there has been renewed talk of the prospect that Britain
:10:45. > :10:47.will end up relying on its membership of the World Trade
:10:48. > :10:51.Organisation and no other special deals as the basis of its trading
:10:52. > :10:55.relationships with the world. Theresa May's speech yesterday
:10:56. > :11:01.contained one very big strategic decision, she wants a comprehensive
:11:02. > :11:05.free trade deal between the EU and the UK unlike anything like anyone
:11:06. > :11:09.else has. She don't want a an off the shelf model. That means that
:11:10. > :11:13.puts more pressure on that two-year negotiation process, it is more
:11:14. > :11:19.likely we won't reach a deal, or in her term, we will take no deal
:11:20. > :11:23.rather than a bad deal. And no deal means operating on WTO terms.
:11:24. > :11:32.That is usually presented pretty bleakly. The WTO would for example
:11:33. > :11:38.force the EU to place 4% tariffs on British car importser customs checks
:11:39. > :11:41.on sales to the EU and difficulty for British far many companies
:11:42. > :11:45.selling drusing into Europe. Why? To understand it may help to know where
:11:46. > :11:51.the WTO came from. It was a body that was only set up in the 1990s,
:11:52. > :11:56.but, its roots are in talks that took place in the 1940s. And those
:11:57. > :12:05.talks were themselves aimed at preventing repetition of problems
:12:06. > :12:10.that occurred in the 1930s. Before the Second World War, there
:12:11. > :12:15.was a trade war, in 1930 the US passed the tariffs named after the
:12:16. > :12:21.legislators who proposed them and other countries replied in kind. The
:12:22. > :12:26.WTO's predecessor emerged from talks aiming to stop that from happening
:12:27. > :12:30.again. Why then, would a body whose founding purpose is to reduce
:12:31. > :12:35.tariffs force the EU to raise them against the UK? The EU is a member
:12:36. > :12:39.of the deal and it has no real special deal with the UK at the
:12:40. > :12:45.moment. Then what the WTO will force the EU to do is treat the UK like it
:12:46. > :12:52.treats any trade partner hand would mean increasing tariffs to the UK.
:12:53. > :12:57.The idea is to stop tit-for-tat 1930s style trade war, unless we cut
:12:58. > :13:02.a proper deal, the EU has to treat us like stranger, and so will places
:13:03. > :13:09.like South Korea, countries with whom we had trade o deals by via EU
:13:10. > :13:14.membership. . That might seem odd but it has worked. Average tariffs
:13:15. > :13:20.round the world from falling from 22% in 1937 to 5% now. The problem
:13:21. > :13:23.is, these days, modern trade barriers are less likely to be
:13:24. > :13:32.tariff, it just isn't the '30s any more. The modern WTO took its
:13:33. > :13:36.current shape at talks in 1944 in Marrakech but while its achieved in
:13:37. > :13:40.reducing tariffs is important and helpful, it hasn't been so good as
:13:41. > :13:46.preventing other sorts of rules and regulations from getting in the way
:13:47. > :13:50.of trade. These so-called non-tariff and technical barriers are much more
:13:51. > :13:56.important than tariffs In we went the rules there is no provision for
:13:57. > :14:01.cooperation between regulatory agencies which is important, if you
:14:02. > :14:05.look at the pharmaceutical sec store where we are continually producing
:14:06. > :14:08.new drugs you need to make sure they are being accepted and approved by
:14:09. > :14:12.agencies, particularly at the EU level to be able to put on the
:14:13. > :14:17.market. The WTO in short isn't good at
:14:18. > :14:21.reducing the admin hassle of selling is across the border or stopping
:14:22. > :14:25.local laws or approval processes that might hobble foreign companies.
:14:26. > :14:28.That is why countries strike free trade agreements.
:14:29. > :14:30.Pascal Lamy is a former EU trade commissioner,
:14:31. > :14:36.and was director-general of the World Trade Organisation.
:14:37. > :14:46.He joins us now from Davos. Good evening. We will come on to talk
:14:47. > :14:51.about the WTO possibilities in a moment, but first, in July last
:14:52. > :14:56.chair, as far as Brexit negotiations were concerned, you said it would be
:14:57. > :15:07.complex and nasty. Do you still hold that view? Yes. It's going to be
:15:08. > :15:12.complex, bumpy and nasty, like any trade negotiation. We know that by
:15:13. > :15:17.experience, unless we invent the first ever trade negotiation in
:15:18. > :15:24.history which would be a love affair. I don't really believe it
:15:25. > :15:28.can happen. Except Theresa May is determined to invent something. She
:15:29. > :15:32.doesn't want an off-the-shelf deal like Norway. She wants a bold and
:15:33. > :15:39.ambitious free trade agreement with the EU. How would that work? I think
:15:40. > :15:47.that's what we have to do now, now that the UK has decided to leave the
:15:48. > :15:53.internal market, as you just said in your excellent summary. The UK will
:15:54. > :15:59.be a third country, like Mexico, Korea or Japan. So UK has to
:16:00. > :16:03.negotiate the terms of access to the EU market, and the EU has to
:16:04. > :16:12.negotiate the terms of access to the UK market. Its seven for the size of
:16:13. > :16:20.the EU market to one, which is the size of the UK market. It's going to
:16:21. > :16:27.be complex, long, it's probably a good thing, a better thing than
:16:28. > :16:32.going to the WTO tariffs, but it will take time, and inevitably,
:16:33. > :16:38.trade will be less open than when the UK was a member of the internal
:16:39. > :16:43.market. It may have to go back to the WTO. What Christine Lagarde was
:16:44. > :16:47.saying was, if you are outside the club, you are not going to get as
:16:48. > :16:52.good a deal as if you were inside the club. No one wants to give
:16:53. > :16:58.Britain such a good deal. I wonder what you think about the idea of
:16:59. > :17:04.some companies like UBS shifting to Paris and beyond. Certain different
:17:05. > :17:09.areas, such as financial services and the car industry, might strike
:17:10. > :17:15.separate deals within the EU. What do you think of that? There will be
:17:16. > :17:20.no separate deal. It is a single undertaking. You have to to agree on
:17:21. > :17:26.everything before you agree on anything. There's no deal that would
:17:27. > :17:33.be a sector deal. This would be toughly negotiated on both sides. As
:17:34. > :17:37.you just said in your programme, the main difficulty for the British
:17:38. > :17:42.exporter to the EU continent, whether goods or services, like
:17:43. > :17:48.financial services or accounting, will be that the UK will have to
:17:49. > :17:52.match EU regulations and standards, without having any say on the
:17:53. > :17:58.regulations and standards. That's a big problem for the future. On the
:17:59. > :18:05.question of how all this operates, because we have to true God Article
:18:06. > :18:10.50 and negotiate their way out. -- trigger article 50. And then, the
:18:11. > :18:20.idea would be that simultaneously you do your fresh deal. Is that
:18:21. > :18:25.possible? Know. I don't think it's doable simultaneously. It can start
:18:26. > :18:31.simultaneously, but any trade negotiation of this kind is very
:18:32. > :18:38.complex and will take a long time. I am convinced this is not doable in
:18:39. > :18:43.two years. And yet David Davis, our chief negotiator, says it will be
:18:44. > :18:51.done by the end of 2018. Do you think, knowing the complexity of all
:18:52. > :19:01.this, that the UK has a sufficiently high octane negotiating team? Very
:19:02. > :19:08.difficult to say. What I know is that, like any other EU member, the
:19:09. > :19:13.UK disbanded its trade expertise when it was transferred to the
:19:14. > :19:19.European Union, so they have to reconstitute a whole body of trade
:19:20. > :19:24.experts and trade negotiators. This will inevitably take time, and by
:19:25. > :19:29.the way, be pretty costly. At least, that's what I'm told by my friends
:19:30. > :19:36.in the consulting and the legal business. So how long do you think
:19:37. > :19:43.it would take to strike a new deal with the EU? I don't know of any
:19:44. > :19:49.trade negotiation that lasted less than five to seven years, which
:19:50. > :19:55.means that there will need to be a sort of interim arrangement which
:19:56. > :20:02.will have to be negotiated before we move to the new trade regime. So
:20:03. > :20:08.Theresa May is a saying, I don't want a bad deal. What if there is no
:20:09. > :20:18.deal, and then we fall back on WTO rules? With this tariff of, for
:20:19. > :20:25.example, 10% on car imports to the EU, will it apply to Britain
:20:26. > :20:33.automatically? That's a possibility if there is no deal, as you rightly
:20:34. > :20:39.say. You go back to the WTO rules, but those rules are worse for the
:20:40. > :20:50.UK, and for the EU into the UK, than a good deal. So that's ad? This
:20:51. > :20:53.notion that no deal rather than a bad deal is something all trade
:20:54. > :21:08.negotiators have been saying all the time. If you have an option between
:21:09. > :21:12.going back to the WTO rules, or the ideal, which is full of pain, you
:21:13. > :21:21.will choose the full of pain. You know Boris Johnson. Do you think you
:21:22. > :21:24.should be one of the lead people in negotiations, given what he said
:21:25. > :21:33.today that so offended so many French? Look, what Boris Johnson
:21:34. > :21:40.said today leads me to wonder whether it's Donald Johnson or Boris
:21:41. > :21:45.Trump! It is a clear embarrassment for all of these high-flying
:21:46. > :21:50.diplomats in the Foreign Office, and they deserve all of our compassion.
:21:51. > :21:53.Thank you very much indeed, Pascal Lambie.
:21:54. > :21:56.Is the military about to be deployed to enforce the election
:21:57. > :22:00.Tonight, the Nigerian Air Force and Senegalese troops are on standby
:22:01. > :22:02.because of the outgoing president Yahya Jammeh's refusal to relinquish
:22:03. > :22:07.Today, the UN said at least 26,000 people, mainly women and children,
:22:08. > :22:13.have fled the country across the border into Senegal.
:22:14. > :22:16.The Gambia, a small state in west Africa sandwiched by Senegal,
:22:17. > :22:19.normally calls itself the "Smiling Coast" -
:22:20. > :22:22.its sunny beaches making it a popular tourist destination.
:22:23. > :22:26.But the fear of violence and military strikes is now hanging
:22:27. > :22:31.As locals are fleeing over the border, China has
:22:32. > :22:33.evacuated its citizens, and tourists are being
:22:34. > :22:41.It's basically that we are going to evacuate everyone back home tonight.
:22:42. > :22:46.President Yahya Jammeh seized power in 1994 at the age of 29.
:22:47. > :22:54.He's survived several coup attempts to rule for the past 22 years.
:22:55. > :22:58.Last December, he lost the presidential election
:22:59. > :23:00.to a candidate backed by a strong opposition coalition.
:23:01. > :23:04.Despite initially conceding the result and appearing to hand
:23:05. > :23:12.We hereby declare a state of public emergency,
:23:13. > :23:16.throughout the Islamic Republic of the Gambia.
:23:17. > :23:23.The President-Elect, Adama Barrow, is due to be sworn in tomorrow.
:23:24. > :23:27.The regional bloc of West African States, Ecowas,
:23:28. > :23:29.has repeatedly warned it would launch military action
:23:30. > :23:34.if Jammeh refuses to step down before the ceremony.
:23:35. > :23:38.Jammeh once said he would rule for a billion years if Allah willed it.
:23:39. > :23:41.We are about to see if his faith in himself will be trumped
:23:42. > :23:51.Steve Cockburn is from Amnesty International and is in Senegal.
:23:52. > :23:57.Today is the deadline given by the international community
:23:58. > :24:00.for President Jammeh to step down from power and pass
:24:01. > :24:03.So far he has refused and mediation efforts have failed.
:24:04. > :24:05.This evening, the President of Mauritania has flown
:24:06. > :24:09.into the country as a last ditch effort to try and find a peaceful
:24:10. > :24:12.solution to the crisis, and at the same time forces
:24:13. > :24:17.led by Senegal and Nigeria have been preparing to launch a military
:24:18. > :24:26.intervention in the country if that peaceful process doesn't succeed.
:24:27. > :24:43.He's -- she's an interventional development writer based in the UK.
:24:44. > :24:51.-- International. Are your family all OK? Yes, they are all treating
:24:52. > :24:59.the crisis from different points of view. How are they treating it? What
:25:00. > :25:04.are they doing? Today, my mother decided she needs to stock up on
:25:05. > :25:10.rice and gas. They've been to work and come home early, and got various
:25:11. > :25:16.groceries ready to sit it out. Are they fearful? I would say they are
:25:17. > :25:25.uncomfortable, but not fearful. We've been through this before. It's
:25:26. > :25:31.tense. It's not entirely in 81? Yes. It's not entirely clear what will
:25:32. > :25:37.happen, but they have confidence that the Senegalese will come in and
:25:38. > :25:44.sort it out. You've been living with this president for a very long time.
:25:45. > :25:48.What has it been like? It's an odd mix, because basically, loads of
:25:49. > :25:52.things have been happening under the radar that have been terrible, like
:25:53. > :25:57.people who have had plastic melted on their genitals. You've heard of
:25:58. > :26:02.people disappearing, and journalists just not turning up for work the
:26:03. > :26:10.next day. So there's all this against a backdrop of a president
:26:11. > :26:12.who has also done things like spread water, so there's been renewed wells
:26:13. > :26:16.for portable water across the country. So this mix of absolute
:26:17. > :26:24.control for doing things for development, but not enough to make
:26:25. > :26:30.people become independent of view. He is clearly digging his heels in.
:26:31. > :26:35.What will shift him? The Nigerians or the Sangha Lee's? Loads of things
:26:36. > :26:39.are happening. His ministers are deserting him, so his support is
:26:40. > :26:45.draining away. What will shift him now is military force. We heard this
:26:46. > :26:49.morning that the top brass in the army were supporting him, but you
:26:50. > :26:56.think they are not? It's not entirely true. This is according to
:26:57. > :27:04.my family, but there's basically two factions in the Army. There's the
:27:05. > :27:08.soldiers, who rejoiced to the election, and there's some who are
:27:09. > :27:14.staying loyal. There are some who are ditching their uniform in the
:27:15. > :27:19.streets. The Gambia is a small place, so everybody is related to
:27:20. > :27:23.everybody else. It comes through to you that you have a personal choice,
:27:24. > :27:29.and some of the soldiers are making the choice that they would rather
:27:30. > :27:34.not continue to support him. Ecowas have acted very quickly. Why is it
:27:35. > :27:47.so critical for them to get a hold in the Gambia? The Gambia is a test
:27:48. > :27:50.case. We have had a coups and countercoups in the West Africa for
:27:51. > :27:55.a long time. Since the war in Cote d'Ivoire, we have had elections in
:27:56. > :28:01.Nigeria, and Ghana, successful and peaceful elections and changes of
:28:02. > :28:04.power. In the Gambia, there's not been one single successful peaceful
:28:05. > :28:07.change of power since I was born, so it's time to make that happen. Thank
:28:08. > :28:11.you very much indeed. President Obama gave his final press
:28:12. > :28:14.conference from The White House this evening, and ranged over subjects
:28:15. > :28:16.from Chelsea Manning to the Israeli Palestinian conflict,
:28:17. > :28:19.warning his successor over any Emily is in Washington,
:28:20. > :28:22.watching the final chapter of the Obama Presidency,
:28:23. > :28:33.and preparing to report on the next. In his last press conference,
:28:34. > :28:40.President Obama conceded that Donald Trump was unlikely to take his
:28:41. > :28:44.advice, given that he had won his election on an anti-Obama platform,
:28:45. > :28:49.but he warned the new, that perhaps he would be hit by the complexities
:28:50. > :28:53.of the role once in office, and his thinking might shift on issues like
:28:54. > :28:58.health care and jobs. He described phone calls between the two men as
:28:59. > :29:02.constructive and lengthy, and said that the best advice he could give
:29:03. > :29:11.was to try and rely on those around him. He said it was not a job for
:29:12. > :29:13.one man alone. Perhaps the most memorable moment was his rebuff to
:29:14. > :29:20.Trump. Trump has already hinted that he might move the press corps
:29:21. > :29:24.outside the White House, and he insisted that the reporters covering
:29:25. > :29:25.his administration were an essential facet of a functioning democracy.
:29:26. > :29:29.Have a listen. You're not supposed
:29:30. > :29:31.to be sycophants, you're You're supposed to ask
:29:32. > :29:33.me tough questions. You're not supposed to be
:29:34. > :29:36.complimentary, but you're supposed to cast a critical eye on folks
:29:37. > :29:39.who hold enormous power, and make sure that we are accountable
:29:40. > :29:42.to the people who sent us here, And you have done it
:29:43. > :29:48.for the most part, in ways that I could appreciate for fairness,
:29:49. > :30:03.even if I didn't always agree It will be understood as a rebuke to
:30:04. > :30:08.Trump who has picked those very public, personal fights with
:30:09. > :30:15.individual reporters and their news organisations, he Haslam Bassited in
:30:16. > :30:17.the past, for fake new, a term has almost weaponised for anything he
:30:18. > :30:23.doesn't like very much. This was the last time that Obama will speak in
:30:24. > :30:27.public as President. He leaves office with near record approval
:30:28. > :30:31.ratings and a flurry of last minute activity which might suggest an
:30:32. > :30:35.awareness of the many things he still leaves undone, so what will
:30:36. > :30:46.his legacy be like? We look back at the last eight years.
:30:47. > :30:57.We will go out and remake America and then we will change the world.
:30:58. > :31:02.When you study anyone and understand why they do it, you become more
:31:03. > :31:12.sympathetic, when you study Obama you try not to -- it is hard not to
:31:13. > :31:17.become a fan. The description he left from behind
:31:18. > :31:21.was true, you can't say that he didn't do anything, they certainly
:31:22. > :31:22.did a lot, but the actions they took, it wasn't enough to make a
:31:23. > :31:40.difference. Think we got more change than a lot
:31:41. > :31:44.of people thought possible. There were 28 million more people insured
:31:45. > :31:48.in this Cundy than there were in 2008. We are fighting to keep that
:31:49. > :31:53.right now, today as I talk to you, trying to make sure that people can
:31:54. > :31:57.keep their health care, there has been change in that, in marriage
:31:58. > :32:01.equality, there has been change all over this country when we think how
:32:02. > :32:14.marginalised people have been. There is more change that needs to happen.
:32:15. > :32:20.You cannot underestimate how bad the cards he inherited in terms of the
:32:21. > :32:27.economy, and nobody gets credit. No politician in history has got credit
:32:28. > :32:32.for averting a disaster, but, Obama the technocrat, the hard nosed
:32:33. > :32:37.technocrat, who passed the largest stimulus in US history. People talk
:32:38. > :32:42.about him unwilling to bend, but he did get Republicans to vote for that
:32:43. > :32:46.which is why it passed which is why there wasn't a second great
:32:47. > :32:51.depression. And his first two years in office he passed more legislation
:32:52. > :32:56.and did more major things really than any other progressive President
:32:57. > :33:00.has done, in living memory, and part of the problem that that caused was
:33:01. > :33:05.that there was a counter attack. We're not going to give up. We are
:33:06. > :33:18.going to fight. We are going to get rid of him in 2012.
:33:19. > :33:25.But that coalition of lejs Kated, rural people who are kind of losers
:33:26. > :33:28.in the globalisation game, is exactly the same coalition that put
:33:29. > :33:32.Donald Trump into the White House. It is just a straight line, you can
:33:33. > :33:36.see it. The Democratic Party at the grass
:33:37. > :33:42.roots has really been decimated under Obama, they have lost most of
:33:43. > :33:46.state house, the legislature, the party under Obama in some sense has
:33:47. > :33:52.hollowed out and it is going to be very hard for them to come back from
:33:53. > :33:56.that. On January 20th, I will become the first President of the United
:33:57. > :34:02.States to serve two full terms during a time of war. I wouldn't
:34:03. > :34:07.give him a great score on foreign policy, he has two successes, Cuba
:34:08. > :34:13.and Iran, they will survive. The Trump presidency, but the rest, I,
:34:14. > :34:18.you know I worked on a lot of other issue, on Isil. Syria, and Ukraine,
:34:19. > :34:30.and he wasn't as strong as he could have been.
:34:31. > :34:36.I would give Obama poor marks on Syria, I worked on Syria in the
:34:37. > :34:41.State Department for several years and I think there were several
:34:42. > :34:46.points when he had Obama done much more than he did, things really
:34:47. > :34:50.could have changed. He had legitimate reasons for avoiding
:34:51. > :34:53.getting more involved but unfortunately you ignore unpleasant
:34:54. > :34:58.parts of the world as your peril. You can't contain a conflict like
:34:59. > :35:02.Syria. We have Isil as a result of Syria and Isil by the way not just
:35:03. > :35:05.in that region but we have seen attacks in many other country, in
:35:06. > :35:13.Europe as well. We had the migration crisis. We went into rack, and it
:35:14. > :35:18.didn't work. We tried persuasion, in Egypt and it didn't work, we tried
:35:19. > :35:23.limited intervention in Libya and it didn't work, we didn't intervene in
:35:24. > :35:26.Syria and it didn't work. I mean, really, the person who said the
:35:27. > :35:38.thing you have to be is lucky, is probably got the answer.
:35:39. > :35:46.If we could recognise ourselves in one another. Bring everybody
:35:47. > :35:49.together. Democrat, Republican, ints, Latino Asian and native
:35:50. > :35:57.American. Black and white. Gay and straight. Disabled and not. The
:35:58. > :36:01.first time I went into the White House, when Barack Obama lived
:36:02. > :36:05.there, that was the first thing that came to mind, my ancestors, built
:36:06. > :36:10.that house, that house that for so long we had to enter the back door
:36:11. > :36:15.of for so long we were not allowed in the dining rooms of, let alone in
:36:16. > :36:27.the Oval office, so for a lot of us having a black man in the White
:36:28. > :36:32.House represented hope. That is not a great legacy on race
:36:33. > :36:36.but that is not Obama's legacy, that is an American legacy on race, if
:36:37. > :36:40.people are tired about hearing racism I guarantee we are far more
:36:41. > :36:43.tired of dealing with it. At the end of the day people confuse
:36:44. > :36:48.identifying racism with actual racism. That doesn't mean race
:36:49. > :37:00.relations have got worse it means people have become more aware.
:37:01. > :37:08.I am asking you to believe, not in my ability to bring about change but
:37:09. > :37:13.in yours. Yes, we can. Yes, we did. Yes we can. Thank you, God bless
:37:14. > :37:15.you. May God continue to bless the United
:37:16. > :37:27.May God continue to bless the United States.
:37:28. > :37:30.Ahead of the inauguration, feelings about Donald Trump are running high,
:37:31. > :37:32.and tonight we bring you the second of our two polarised
:37:33. > :37:34."animated" perspectives on the incoming President.
:37:35. > :37:37.Last night, Roger Kimball, editor of the US literary
:37:38. > :37:39.magazine, The New Criterion, exhorted Trump to bring it on.
:37:40. > :37:41.Tonight, the former editor of the New Republic,
:37:42. > :37:44.the British American author and blogger Andrew Sullivan, who has
:37:45. > :37:56.As Donald Trump began his march through American democracy
:37:57. > :37:59.toward the White House earlier this year, my mind kept drifting
:38:00. > :38:01.to a passage I read years before as a graduate student,
:38:02. > :38:03.from the first book on politics ever written.
:38:04. > :38:12.The passage is from the dialogue where Socrates and his friends
:38:13. > :38:14.are talking about the nature of different political systems.
:38:15. > :38:16.How they change over time, and how one can slowly
:38:17. > :38:23.Socrates says something pretty shocking - tyranny is probably
:38:24. > :38:32.established out of no other regime than democracy.
:38:33. > :38:34.Democracy was defined as a political system which maximises two things -
:38:35. > :38:38.Everyone is equal, and everyone can do whatever he or she likes.
:38:39. > :38:41.And the longer a democracy lasts, Socrates says, the more
:38:42. > :38:57.Its freedoms multiply until it becomes a many coloured cloak,
:38:58. > :39:00.Man are interchangeable with women, and all their natural
:39:01. > :39:11.Foreigners can come and work just like citizens, children
:39:12. > :39:14.Teachers are afraid of their students, the rich
:39:15. > :39:22.Soon, every kind of inequality is despised.
:39:23. > :39:23.The wealthy are particularly loathed.
:39:24. > :39:25.And elites in general are treated as suspect,
:39:26. > :39:35.perpetuating inequality and representing injustice.
:39:36. > :39:37.It's when a democracy is evolved into this, Plato argues,
:39:38. > :39:41.that a would-be tyrant will often seize his moment.
:39:42. > :39:45.He is usually of the elite, but is in tune with the times,
:39:46. > :39:47.given over to random pleasures and whims, feasting on food,
:39:48. > :39:55.He makes his move by taking over a particularly obedient mob
:39:56. > :40:04.and attacking his wealthy peers as corrupt.
:40:05. > :40:07.He is a traitor to his class, and soon his elite enemies find
:40:08. > :40:09.a way to appease him or are forced to flee.
:40:10. > :40:11.Eventually, he stands alone, offering the addled,
:40:12. > :40:13.distracted and self-indulgent citizens a kind of relief
:40:14. > :40:19.from democracy's endless choices and insecurities.
:40:20. > :40:26.Too much freedom seems to change into nothing but too much slavery.
:40:27. > :40:28.And offers himself as the personified answer to all problems.
:40:29. > :40:31.To replace the elites and rule along on behalf of the masses.
:40:32. > :40:34.And as the people thrill to him, as a kind of solution,
:40:35. > :40:48.a democracy willingly impetuosly repeals itself.
:40:49. > :40:56.But the music world is today mourning the death of the Nigerian
:40:57. > :41:00.If you've never heard of him, that's because he never
:41:01. > :41:03.performed on screen, and he quit the music business years
:41:04. > :41:05.before he even found fame to become a born again Christian,
:41:06. > :41:08.and pretty much ignored his subsequent feting by the legion
:41:09. > :41:12.of western musicians who he profoundly influenced.
:41:13. > :41:14.So we'll leave you instead with Talking Head's David Byrne
:41:15. > :41:16.and the Atomic Bomb band, performing Onyeabor's song
:41:17. > :41:18.Fantastic Man on the Jimmy Fallon Show in 2015.
:41:19. > :41:27.# I want you try to tell me how you feel about me, girl
:41:28. > :41:37.# Tell me, tell me, tell me, tell me, tell me
:41:38. > :42:06.Good evening. With high pressure sitting across the country any
:42:07. > :42:11.changes in the weather for the next few days will be slow. So we start
:42:12. > :42:15.with a frost again, in clearer areas than the south. Some fog and frost
:42:16. > :42:21.and fog where we see the breaks further north. But, the breaks will
:42:22. > :42:25.be limited we think across Northern Ireland and Scotland, mostly dry,
:42:26. > :42:31.east of the Grampians that is the best chance of drier, brighter
:42:32. > :42:36.weather or sunshine once the fog clears, perhaps fog. There could be
:42:37. > :42:39.low level fog as you can see in Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the
:42:40. > :42:43.Midland. There is no strength in the sunshine or in fact no wind as well,
:42:44. > :42:49.to move it on. But in the south, after a hard frost, should be
:42:50. > :42:52.sparkling sunshine again. But a nice day, we may see that extend into
:42:53. > :42:57.parts of Wales as well, through the course of Thursday, that is in
:42:58. > :43:01.contrast to Wednesday. But, as I say, there will be be a lot of
:43:02. > :43:06.cloudy, but dry weather. Friday, perhaps a few more breaks in
:43:07. > :43:08.the cloud, indicated in Inverness, temperatures not so high and as we
:43:09. > :43:10.head further south