:00:10. > :00:14.Do you worry that us leaving the EU would trigger a second referendum in
:00:15. > :00:17.Scotland for independence? There is a concern. Look, I mean... It's all
:00:18. > :00:21.panning out just like he said. They're not calling
:00:22. > :00:24.it project fear now. I will now take the steps necessary
:00:25. > :00:28.to make sure that Scotland will have a choice at the end of this process,
:00:29. > :00:32.a choice of whether to follow the UK to a hard Brexit or to become
:00:33. > :00:35.an independent country. As we come on air the Article
:00:36. > :00:37.50 bill is completing We'll discuss what the impact
:00:38. > :00:44.will be on the Union. Also tonight, David Davis
:00:45. > :00:47.is the minister for walking this I remember one of the Cameroons once
:00:48. > :00:53.saying to me in exasperation that he's the only person he knows
:00:54. > :00:58.who didn't go to Eton but has And listen to the childhood trauma
:00:59. > :01:06.that inspired 4-3-2-1, the first novel in seven years
:01:07. > :01:10.from Paul Auster. I'd never seen a dead person,
:01:11. > :01:14.so I crawled beside him and I pulled him into the meadow,
:01:15. > :01:17.and that was the moment when I understood that anything can
:01:18. > :01:31.happen to anybody at any time. "Don't tie the Prime Minister's
:01:32. > :01:33.hands," warned her Brexit As we go on air tonight,
:01:34. > :01:38.Britain's Parliament has agreed to hand Theresa May a clean
:01:39. > :01:41.Brexit Bill, creating a significant piece of constitutional
:01:42. > :01:45.history as it does so. Earlier this evening,
:01:46. > :01:47.the Commons threw out two amendments from the upper House,
:01:48. > :01:49.paving the way for In the last few minutes, the Lords
:01:50. > :01:54.have rejected their own amendments Tonight's momentous vote
:01:55. > :02:00.was intended to be the starting gun, allowing the Prime Minister
:02:01. > :02:03.to trigger Article 50. But in the event, Scotland's First
:02:04. > :02:06.Minister fired her own, several hours earlier
:02:07. > :02:09.and to the surprise of many. In an audacious power grab,
:02:10. > :02:12.Ms Sturgeon seized the narrative laying out her plans for a second
:02:13. > :02:17.referendum on Scottish Independence, explaining why the breaking up
:02:18. > :02:21.of one union, may well lead We are live tonight in Parliament
:02:22. > :02:26.and in Edinburgh with the latest. First to our political
:02:27. > :02:31.editor, Nick Watt. What's been happening there in the
:02:32. > :02:37.last ten minutes, talk us through it. One of Margaret Thatcher's
:02:38. > :02:42.favourite Cabinet ministers has said it is irrevokable. As you said, the
:02:43. > :02:46.Brexit bill has completed its final Parliamentary stages. The House of
:02:47. > :02:49.Lords threw in the towel, after there was a minuscule rebellion in
:02:50. > :02:53.the House of Commons. That meant that bill no longer has amendments
:02:54. > :02:57.on guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens and amendments saying that
:02:58. > :03:01.there should be a meaningful vote in this place at the end of the
:03:02. > :03:05.process. What that means is that Theresa May now can trigger Article
:03:06. > :03:10.50 and of particular significance to the Prime Minister, it means that
:03:11. > :03:14.she has a clean bill, no amendments and Number Ten had said if there
:03:15. > :03:19.were any changes to that bill, that could weaken the UK's negotiating
:03:20. > :03:23.hand and be exploited by the EU in those Article 50 negotiations. The
:03:24. > :03:28.only final stage now is that the Queen has to give this bill Royal
:03:29. > :03:33.Assent, which naturally she will do in Norman French. I'm told there's
:03:34. > :03:36.going to be no rush to ask the Queen to do that. When Theresa May stands
:03:37. > :03:40.up here tomorrow at 12. 30pm, to give her statement on last week's
:03:41. > :03:45.European Council, we may find that the bill will not have Royal Assent
:03:46. > :03:47.by that stage. We'll be back there shortly. Thanks very much.
:03:48. > :03:49.Well, what are the calculations on each side?
:03:50. > :03:51.And how would that second referendum work in practice?
:03:52. > :03:54.Chris Cook has been assessing who holds the stronger hand
:03:55. > :04:00.between Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon.
:04:01. > :04:04.The SNP's manifesto contained a pledge:
:04:05. > :04:07.if Britain voted to leave the European Union, Scots should
:04:08. > :04:13.And today, we learned the Scottish Parliament will get a vote
:04:14. > :04:16.to request permission for a fresh referendum next week.
:04:17. > :04:21.If Scotland is to have a real choice,
:04:22. > :04:25.when the terms of Brexit are known but before it is too late
:04:26. > :04:28.to choose our own course, then that choice must be offered
:04:29. > :04:33.between the autumn of next year, 2018, and the spring of 2019.
:04:34. > :04:36.The evidence is that the Scottish people, the majority of the Scottish
:04:37. > :04:41.people, do not want a second independent referendum, so instead
:04:42. > :04:45.of playing politics with the future of our country, the Scottish
:04:46. > :04:49.Government should focus on delivering good Government and
:04:50. > :04:52.public services for the people of Scotland.
:04:53. > :04:54.Some independence supporters tell pollsters they don't
:04:55. > :04:57.want a second vote until they can be sure of a win.
:04:58. > :05:00.At the moment, they don't have a steady lead.
:05:01. > :05:05.In January 2016, the Unionists have reached a
:05:06. > :05:10.Just after the Brexit referendum, the independence
:05:11. > :05:12.movement took a 5% lead, but the latest
:05:13. > :05:20.averages imply things are
:05:21. > :05:23.neck and neck, a tiny 1% Unionist lead.
:05:24. > :05:26.It's all in the balance, with 10% of Scots saying they are
:05:27. > :05:29.Downing Street has two approve a referendum, and while the
:05:30. > :05:32.Government sounds opposed to doing so, it will be hard to resist.
:05:33. > :05:35.If they do approve one, though, when will it happen?
:05:36. > :05:37.The options really fall into three boxes.
:05:38. > :05:39.The first is they would have a referendum before
:05:40. > :05:49.That's really what the Scottish National Party wants.
:05:50. > :05:51.The second option is to have won after 2021.
:05:52. > :05:54.That's what the Government want, because that would force the SNP to
:05:55. > :05:56.win another Holyrood election before they
:05:57. > :05:58.were allowed to call an independence referendum.
:05:59. > :06:00.So, the likeliest outcome is probably the
:06:01. > :06:05.third box, somewhere between the two, 2019-2021.
:06:06. > :06:08.We know from different election studies that
:06:09. > :06:11.attitudes to risk were a big factor in the first independence
:06:12. > :06:18.referendum, and the people who were very willing
:06:19. > :06:20.to take big risks in their lives for about 20 percentage
:06:21. > :06:22.points more likely to vote for independence.
:06:23. > :06:25.So what the SNP will want to do is either make
:06:26. > :06:29.independence look less risky and appeal to those who are a bit more
:06:30. > :06:34.risk averse or make staying in look more risky, so the question then
:06:35. > :06:37.becomes, when over the next two years is staying in the UK going to
:06:38. > :06:45.Independence campaigners are alive to riskiness as a factor.
:06:46. > :06:48.There is a deficit obviously within Scotland and within the UK.
:06:49. > :06:57.It has picked up a bit, but there will be worries that oil within
:06:58. > :07:00.the Scottish economy still is a huge player, despite the fact that the
:07:01. > :07:03.growth commission set up by the Scottish Government is trying to
:07:04. > :07:06.project a future economic forecast for Scotland that doesn't even
:07:07. > :07:09.include oil so that it can look at the underlying long-term
:07:10. > :07:15.The Unionists have trouble too, not least who will lead them.
:07:16. > :07:20.Modern politics is much more about the story politicians tell
:07:21. > :07:24.rather than spreadsheets, and defending the union, painting a
:07:25. > :07:28.positive vision of the union was difficult a few years ago, but it's
:07:29. > :07:36.now considerably harder, obviously because of Brexit.
:07:37. > :07:44.A caricatured view of the UK propagated by a lot of nationalists
:07:45. > :07:47.is that it is run by a right-wing Tory cabals who don't
:07:48. > :07:51.like immigrants and want to come out of the EU has of course more or less
:07:52. > :07:54.There are lots of moving Brexit parts here too.
:07:55. > :07:56.Whether we manage to keep an open border
:07:57. > :07:58.between Northern Ireland and the Republic, for example.
:07:59. > :08:00.Fears of a hard border between England and
:08:01. > :08:03.Scotland were a major issue at the polls last time around.
:08:04. > :08:06.All that's certain for now is that Britain
:08:07. > :08:11.changed fundamentally on the 23rd of June last year.
:08:12. > :08:18.We will come back to all things Scotland in a second.
:08:19. > :08:21.Fresh from that significant Lord's vote we caught up with Peter
:08:22. > :08:25.Mandelson, who joins us now. Thanks very much. You stuck it out through
:08:26. > :08:29.both the amendments. Do you feel the other Lord's let you down? No. It
:08:30. > :08:35.was a judgment for them. But for me, the issue of the rights of EU
:08:36. > :08:39.nationals is a matter of conscience. I think it was right to stick to
:08:40. > :08:45.that principle. I also believe that at the end of this negotiation,
:08:46. > :08:49.Parliament should have the right to express a view, a meaningful view,
:08:50. > :08:54.on what the outcome of that negotiation will mean for our
:08:55. > :08:57.economy, our future prosperity and livelihoods in this country. That's
:08:58. > :09:01.why I voted to insist on both amendments. What does meaningful
:09:02. > :09:06.mean now it's been defeated? What happens now? Now it's been defeated,
:09:07. > :09:12.to all intents and purposes, although people will say that there
:09:13. > :09:17.are many procedural avenues that Parliament can pursue, to express
:09:18. > :09:21.its view, I think that a very clear signal, I'm afraid, has been given
:09:22. > :09:28.tonight that the Government can do as it wishes. I greatly regret that.
:09:29. > :09:34.Because the course on which the Government is presently embarked are
:09:35. > :09:38.hard and extreme, a harsh Brexit would involve considerable economic
:09:39. > :09:42.pain, loss of growth, a threat to livelihoods in this country. I think
:09:43. > :09:48.people are right to stand up and say that whilst they respect the result
:09:49. > :09:52.of the referendum, they nonetheless oppose that sort of hard Brexit. I
:09:53. > :09:56.hope that people increasingly will organise to make their voices heard.
:09:57. > :10:01.You're confusingly on the same page as Nicola Sturgeon now with that
:10:02. > :10:05.line. With her laying out of a time table now for a second referendum,
:10:06. > :10:10.would you like to see the UK Government allow that to go forward?
:10:11. > :10:14.Well, what I would like to do is in her letter to the European Union,
:10:15. > :10:21.triggering Article 50, let's take this one stage at a time, I would
:10:22. > :10:25.like to see the Government take a much more constructive approach than
:10:26. > :10:32.the one they've hitherto signalled. I think it's very important that we
:10:33. > :10:36.negotiate to end up only one step away from the single market, so that
:10:37. > :10:43.we continue to maximise our trade in it, to much pies the prospects for
:10:44. > :10:46.growth, for prosperity, for investment in jobs in the country. I
:10:47. > :10:51.regret right from the beginning the Government has ruled out any
:10:52. > :10:55.participation by Britain in the single market and has indicated that
:10:56. > :10:59.we should leave the customs union as well. That is a direct threat to
:11:00. > :11:04.jobs and prosperity in our country. If I can just press you though on
:11:05. > :11:07.Scotland. Would you like to see the PM allow that second ref to go
:11:08. > :11:10.ahead? Would you campaign for the union and would you like to see
:11:11. > :11:16.Jeremy Corbyn campaign for the union? Well, the first referendum in
:11:17. > :11:20.Scotland showed, in my view, a decisive result. That was for
:11:21. > :11:26.Scotland to stay in the United Kingdom. But two things have changed
:11:27. > :11:31.since then. One is the referendum on EU membership in which Scotland
:11:32. > :11:37.clearly voted by an overwhelming majority to stay inside the European
:11:38. > :11:42.Union. And secondly, the Government has demonstrated that it is
:11:43. > :11:47.absolutely determined to head for a hard Brexit, which will maximise the
:11:48. > :11:54.economic pain and costs for Scotland as well as the rest of the United
:11:55. > :11:57.Kingdom. I rather fear that strengthens the case for a second
:11:58. > :12:02.referendum in Scotland. I regret that. Because I think, although the
:12:03. > :12:06.case is not made for independence, I'm afraid we have to accept that
:12:07. > :12:10.the Government's determination to inflict a hard Brexit on Scotland
:12:11. > :12:14.does strengthen the argument of those who want to revisit the
:12:15. > :12:21.original question. OK, thanks very much indeed. Sarah Smith joins us
:12:22. > :12:25.from Edinburgh. Can you just pick up on that point, what choice can
:12:26. > :12:30.Nicola Sturgeon actually offer people in Scotland this time round,
:12:31. > :12:34.in terms of EU membership? Well, Scotland's place in the European
:12:35. > :12:39.Union, if it were to become an independent country, is certainly
:12:40. > :12:41.not guaranteed. EU officials recently have been reiterating that
:12:42. > :12:47.an independent Scotland would have to apply again for membership. But
:12:48. > :12:51.the SNP politicians, ever since the EU referendum have been travelling
:12:52. > :12:55.around Europe, talking to as many EU politicians as they can. They say
:12:56. > :12:59.they are getting a murch, much more sympathetic hearing since the UK
:13:00. > :13:02.voted to leave the EU, than they did when they were talking to people
:13:03. > :13:07.before the 2014 independence referendum. You'll remember back
:13:08. > :13:09.then, people campaigning for the union said an independent Scotland
:13:10. > :13:12.wouldn't be able to join the European Union. They told Scottish
:13:13. > :13:17.voters, if you want to stay in the EU you have to vote to stay in the
:13:18. > :13:20.UK. Well that has now become a major argument for the SNP, saying that's
:13:21. > :13:26.the reason why you can't trust the union and in fact, if you want to
:13:27. > :13:28.stay in the EU, your only hope is in an independent Scotland, who they
:13:29. > :13:32.think would have a much better chance now of getting EU membership
:13:33. > :13:37.and that's one reason why Nicola Sturgeon is going to try to insist
:13:38. > :13:40.that a referendum is held before the UK leaves the EU, because she thinks
:13:41. > :13:43.that would make that much easier for Scotland to get in much quicker and
:13:44. > :13:48.not have a lengthy period outside the European Union. Your sense,
:13:49. > :13:54.briefly, is there is nothing that would change her mind at this point,
:13:55. > :13:57.aside from membership of the single market for Scotland? She said if the
:13:58. > :14:01.UK Government come and talk about the compromise proposals Nicola
:14:02. > :14:05.Sturgeon put forward that would allow Scotland to stay in the
:14:06. > :14:12.European Economic Area and stay in the UK, she's prepared to talk about
:14:13. > :14:13.that. That seems extremely unlikely. Short of that happening, she wants
:14:14. > :14:18.another independence referendum. of the SNP, and I asked him
:14:19. > :14:23.what the SNP would do if the UK Government tried
:14:24. > :14:35.to block a referendum. Is the UK Government a functioning
:14:36. > :14:38.democracy? I cannot see how a democratically elected UK Government
:14:39. > :14:41.will say to a democratically elected Scottish Government, elected on a
:14:42. > :14:47.mandate to hold a referendum, where the governing party has more votes
:14:48. > :14:51.than the Labour Party and conservatives combined, where the
:14:52. > :14:57.SNP holds all the Scottish seats in Westminster bar three, and after 62%
:14:58. > :15:02.of people in Scotland voted to remain, one is not going to allow a
:15:03. > :15:08.democratic vote? Is it the 21st or what? It does not sound like you
:15:09. > :15:13.have accounted for quite a lot of people who have voted for Brexit. I
:15:14. > :15:16.think of the prospect is a Scottish Government and parliament in charge
:15:17. > :15:21.of all the powers, I think people will view it in a different context
:15:22. > :15:24.and the Brexit referendum, where people were promised they would be
:15:25. > :15:28.able to take back control, but as we have learned in recent weeks, there
:15:29. > :15:32.is no prospect of the UK Government passing on all the powers from
:15:33. > :15:38.Brussels to Holyrood. They were sold a pup on that, as they were on ?350
:15:39. > :15:44.million to the National Health Service every week. I think people
:15:45. > :15:47.who decided to protest in the Brexit referendum, when given the chance to
:15:48. > :15:59.vote for Scotland to have all the relevant powers and... Hold on, what
:16:00. > :16:02.about the people who voted yes to independence and for Brexit in the
:16:03. > :16:08.referendum? That could work against you substantially. The polls have
:16:09. > :16:12.shown that support for independence is up compared to 2014, and given
:16:13. > :16:18.that we started in that boat on a base of 28%, I will take starting
:16:19. > :16:22.50-50 as a good base camp for the referendum that is coming in the
:16:23. > :16:27.next two years. This was hugely divisive last time round, and people
:16:28. > :16:31.are only just starting to repair the wounds. Now they have to look at
:16:32. > :16:37.years more uncertainty and antagonism from a nation that just
:16:38. > :16:40.once you to get on and rule. The biggest uncertainty people in
:16:41. > :16:44.Scotland faces being taken out of the EU against the will of the
:16:45. > :16:49.people. In a normal democracy, you vote for what happens. In 2014,
:16:50. > :16:54.people were told to vote against Scottish independence to protect
:16:55. > :16:58.their place in Europe, and many did, in good faith, and then work out
:16:59. > :17:03.voted two years later in a Brexit referendum. It could look
:17:04. > :17:08.opportunistic for you. We have two options. One, to sit in the back of
:17:09. > :17:13.the Tory Brexit busts, shut up, say nothing and disregard the 62% of
:17:14. > :17:17.voters who voted to remain and see the Prime Minister drive us off a
:17:18. > :17:20.Brexit cliff, or we have the opportunity of the people of
:17:21. > :17:24.Scotland having the power in their hands in a referendum about our
:17:25. > :17:29.country's future. I know what I would take. What power do they have?
:17:30. > :17:35.You cannot go promising Scotland it will remain in the EU. What power
:17:36. > :17:39.argue giving them? The power of the people to decide to be part of a
:17:40. > :17:43.Brexit written or whether they are going to be a southern Scotland. I
:17:44. > :17:47.do not believe in a month of Sundays that the people of Scotland will
:17:48. > :17:51.vote for the same kind of harebrained Brexit plan we have seen
:17:52. > :17:55.the UK Government propose. I think the people of Scotland will choose a
:17:56. > :18:00.different course, much more in line with the politics of the European
:18:01. > :18:03.continent, where we are prepared to work together, share sovereignty and
:18:04. > :18:07.citizenship rights and not have them taken away by a right-wing Tory
:18:08. > :18:14.Government which seems intent on the most extreme form of Brexit. We are
:18:15. > :18:19.long way off, clearly, but there will be people looking at your party
:18:20. > :18:24.tonight and saying, look, to lose one could be considered misfortune,
:18:25. > :18:28.but you lose two, when push comes to shove, that would have to spell the
:18:29. > :18:30.end of your party, wouldn't it? We have no intention of losing. Thank
:18:31. > :18:33.you. Joining me now Gisela Stuart
:18:34. > :18:36.and Nadhim Zahawi - both unionists - who fought to keep Scotland
:18:37. > :18:47.in the UK and both Brexiteers, but Nice to have you here. This is a
:18:48. > :18:54.massive day for Brexit, for Brexiteers, for a campaigner like
:18:55. > :18:59.you. Yes, and the real headline is that the UK, which voted to leave
:19:00. > :19:01.the EU on the 23rd of June, today in a Parliamentary process gave the
:19:02. > :19:07.Prime Minister the authority to trigger that. I think it -- I think
:19:08. > :19:12.what we see in terms of Scotland is a very interesting attempt at
:19:13. > :19:18.grabbing the headlines, but this was a nationwide referendum, and the
:19:19. > :19:23.United Kingdom decided to leave, and you just can't have one part of it
:19:24. > :19:28.deciding on a retrospective change to the rules. It is interesting that
:19:29. > :19:32.you start by talking about the United Kingdom. Nadhim, if you were
:19:33. > :19:36.told in June that the result of Brexit would trigger a second
:19:37. > :19:42.Scottish referendum, something you tried so hard to stop, would you go
:19:43. > :19:46.for it again? Well, what you have to understand about today with Nicola
:19:47. > :19:50.Sturgeon, the imagery looked stateswoman like, but the words were
:19:51. > :19:55.nowhere near it. It was being opportunistic of the worst kind. It
:19:56. > :19:58.makes Ruth Davidson looked like the only serious heavyweight politician
:19:59. > :20:02.in Scotland who cares about the well-being of all of the Scottish
:20:03. > :20:06.people. Remember, 40% of Scottish people actually voted for Brexit.
:20:07. > :20:11.That is a significant number. Many would have voted for the SNP, but I
:20:12. > :20:17.think the SNP have overplayed their hand. None of that matters. If she
:20:18. > :20:20.is standing there saying, as Scotland's First Minister, I am
:20:21. > :20:24.giving the country the chance to choose again and I am calling a
:20:25. > :20:28.second referendum, none of that matters. When they considered the
:20:29. > :20:32.question last time around, they couldn't answer the question about
:20:33. > :20:36.currency. This time, it will be about the deficit. You will be
:20:37. > :20:41.outside of Nato, outside of the EU, you will have to reapply. Spain will
:20:42. > :20:47.block you. We can't provide any answers anyway over Brexit. You can
:20:48. > :20:51.provide the answer that if they remain part of the UK, we are a very
:20:52. > :20:55.strong economy. Look at what we have done since last June as an economy,
:20:56. > :20:58.together. That is the question they will have the answer which I think
:20:59. > :21:04.they don't have the answer for, and they will be punished at the polls.
:21:05. > :21:07.Gisela, I wonder how you approach this referendum, a long way off, but
:21:08. > :21:10.you were such a passionate campaigner for the Leave campaign.
:21:11. > :21:15.Would you throw yourself into saving the union? I have always stayed
:21:16. > :21:19.there is a good union and it is the United Kingdom one. It shows you can
:21:20. > :21:24.have a supranational identity and it can work. It might be coming to an
:21:25. > :21:30.end. I think that is why we have to make sure it doesn't. What should
:21:31. > :21:33.Theresa May do? To ask why Nicola Sturgeon is doing this. It stops her
:21:34. > :21:36.from having to look at the fact that the Scottish economy is not
:21:37. > :21:40.performing as well as well as it should, that its education system
:21:41. > :21:48.and health system is not running as well as it should. You heard Angus
:21:49. > :21:51.Robertson - they had no choice and they are doing it to give Scottish
:21:52. > :21:54.people a chance. There are a significant number of people who
:21:55. > :21:58.voted for Scottish independence will also voted to leave the EU. I think
:21:59. > :22:04.there is a moment of massive opportunity for National renewal. We
:22:05. > :22:10.have a unique opportunity in peace time to rewrite the bulls on how the
:22:11. > :22:21.UK relates to each other and to the EU. That will hold us together. --
:22:22. > :22:27.to read/write the rules. You can't just have Better Together again and
:22:28. > :22:31.go out and fight for it, can you? Some unions that have coherence,
:22:32. > :22:37.they have democratic checks and balances, that is why the United
:22:38. > :22:39.Kingdom union works and why the European Union didn't work, because
:22:40. > :22:43.it didn't have those checks and balances. I completely agree and I
:22:44. > :22:47.would go further and say that Ruth Davidson and the Conservatives in
:22:48. > :22:51.Scotland are going to fight to stop the SNP doing this. So they should
:22:52. > :23:02.just be Ruth Davidson, not Theresa May? -- so this should just be Ruth
:23:03. > :23:06.Davidson. She should not be playing fast and loose with the future. We
:23:07. > :23:10.had about tonight in the chamber and it went to the Lords. One of the
:23:11. > :23:15.toughest things in any negotiation is the walk away option, and no
:23:16. > :23:20.Government wants to take that option. In terms of the mechanics of
:23:21. > :23:22.how this would happen, because it is intriguing because of all the
:23:23. > :23:30.different political colours we are now seeing. Would Ruth Davidson
:23:31. > :23:34.fight this for the Tories? Would you want Jeremy Corbyn becoming your
:23:35. > :23:40.voice, whatever the Better Together campaign is? I think my party has to
:23:41. > :23:46.be clearer when it says the United Kingdom is a union we fight for and
:23:47. > :23:50.support. That is shot across the bow is to Jeremy Corbyn. I think once
:23:51. > :23:58.Article 50 is triggered, in Scotland, there will be a dividing
:23:59. > :24:01.line which between unionists and nationalists, and labour and the
:24:02. > :24:06.Tories, we have to be clear that we other side of the unionists. The
:24:07. > :24:09.point I was trying to make is that you will see the Theresa May after
:24:10. > :24:16.tonight, because she has a bill that has gone through that allows her all
:24:17. > :24:20.the options, in 2018-19, when, as I think is likely, we will be seeing a
:24:21. > :24:24.good deal emerge for both sides, the EU and the UK, it would make the SNP
:24:25. > :24:31.look irrelevant. They will look silly in the eyes of Scottish
:24:32. > :24:34.people. If we had that deal as England Wales, Northern Ireland and
:24:35. > :24:38.no Scotland, will it have been worth it? I don't think that's where we
:24:39. > :24:45.will be. This Scottish people will look at it and say, we're better off
:24:46. > :24:51.in the family of nations, a strong, dynamic United Kingdom. We are
:24:52. > :24:55.negotiating as a United Kingdom. Nothing will happen to the United
:24:56. > :24:57.Kingdom until that is completed. We have run out of time. Thank you very
:24:58. > :24:59.much indeed. Well, when Theresa May does
:25:00. > :25:01.write that letter - yes, signed off by the Queen in French -
:25:02. > :25:05.all eyes will be on David Davis, the man she has charged
:25:06. > :25:07.with handling what are fully expected to be some of the most
:25:08. > :25:10.complex negotiations After losing out on the Tory
:25:11. > :25:13.leadership to David Cameron in 2005 and then quitting the Shadow Cabinet
:25:14. > :25:16.in 2008, many predicted that his career in front
:25:17. > :25:18.line politics was over. Now he finds himself
:25:19. > :25:20.at the forefront of the crucial Nick, you've been taking a closer
:25:21. > :25:35.look at the man they call DD. Yes, well obviously Theresa May will
:25:36. > :25:40.finally trigger Article 50 in the last week of March. As you say, that
:25:41. > :25:46.means David Davis will enter as the chief EU negotiator. I thought I
:25:47. > :25:50.would top his friends and colleagues of his to find out the character of
:25:51. > :25:54.this former SAS reservist, and what he will be like in those
:25:55. > :25:59.negotiations. Interestingly, I've picked up from the other 27 EU
:26:00. > :26:08.members that when he sits down with his counterpart, Barnier will not be
:26:09. > :26:12.asking for a specific figure on the highly contentious divorce
:26:13. > :26:19.settlement, the money the UK has to pay. Barnier will say that we have
:26:20. > :26:26.to sign up to the principles, which means that the UK has do abide by
:26:27. > :26:30.commitments and undertakings it has taken as a member state and accept
:26:31. > :26:37.its share of EU liabilities. Emily, this is my film.
:26:38. > :26:46.It's a daunting challenge that only the bravest of the brave would
:26:47. > :26:52.attempt. After accepting a death from fellow Tory diners, David Davis
:26:53. > :26:58.sauntered along the crumbling ramparts of the castle. One false
:26:59. > :27:06.move would have been a -- would have meant a sheer drop. David Davis
:27:07. > :27:10.cemented his reputation as a fearless hard man. He also showed
:27:11. > :27:16.that he is prepared to take risks but never in a reckless way. And
:27:17. > :27:21.that shows the approach he will take to the Brexit negotiations. He takes
:27:22. > :27:25.pride in his ability to take risks, but only after making a very careful
:27:26. > :27:34.assessment of all the options in front of him. In David Davis's 's
:27:35. > :27:39.mind, the black Root was a walk in the park compared to one of his
:27:40. > :27:42.proudest achievements - a stint in the SAS reserves. When it came to
:27:43. > :27:46.finding his way through university, he did it by joining the military.
:27:47. > :27:56.He became a member of the Special Air Service, the Territorial Army
:27:57. > :28:02.regiment, which means that he knows how to kill people, but only at
:28:03. > :28:04.weekends. He won the respect of his military comrade after a deprived
:28:05. > :28:10.and troubled upbringing in south London. One night, we got to bed
:28:11. > :28:19.absolutely shattered in the barrack block from an injury in March, and
:28:20. > :28:22.we got to bed at midnight. At 4am, suddenly, though wash-outs and
:28:23. > :28:28.yells, the lights came on, everybody out, on parade! Underpants only, get
:28:29. > :28:32.on the track! The last man to the top of the Brecon Beacons and back
:28:33. > :28:37.will fail. That's pretty standard stuff coming from the instructors
:28:38. > :28:45.but on this occasion, it was David doing shouting. Will you expect the
:28:46. > :28:49.status quo, capping and capitalism? Although he had been interested in
:28:50. > :28:52.politics since his student days, David Davis embarked on a business
:28:53. > :28:58.career spanning two decades after leaving university and ended up on
:28:59. > :29:03.the board of Tate Lyle, a suitable position for a sugar addict. For
:29:04. > :29:08.scoops of sugar in his tea on a good day. After renting parliament at the
:29:09. > :29:10.age of 38 in 1987, his business and military background provided the
:29:11. > :29:16.perfect training for the assignment that made his name as a senior whip
:29:17. > :29:21.pushing through the Maastricht Treaty. He may have been the
:29:22. > :29:27.enforcer of the integrationist EU treaty, but he was no starry eyed
:29:28. > :29:29.pro-European, as a former colleague can attest. His first contact with
:29:30. > :29:34.Europe was as a businessman with Tate Lyle. What the common
:29:35. > :29:44.cultural policy did was essentially disadvantaged it from French sugar
:29:45. > :29:47.beet growers. What David Davis saw was a very distorted policy that her
:29:48. > :29:51.British interests. It seemed commercial the village and wasteful
:29:52. > :29:59.of money, and it was anti-British, which affected his initial judgment
:30:00. > :30:02.about Europe. So his colleagues say that there should be no surprise
:30:03. > :30:09.that the enforcer of Maastricht is now the man guiding the UK out of
:30:10. > :30:16.the EU. Maastricht was a long time ago. The European Union has become
:30:17. > :30:17.much more integrationist since then, and the flaws in the project have
:30:18. > :30:27.become much more apparent. David Davis hoped to replace Michael
:30:28. > :30:31.Howard as Tory leader. But a less than scintillating speech paved the
:30:32. > :30:36.way for the next generation. Friends at mitted this failure highlighted
:30:37. > :30:41.some character flaws. He works incredibly hard but he likes to take
:30:42. > :30:45.August off. The trouble was that he needed to use August to tell the
:30:46. > :30:50.country why he wanted to be Prime Minister back in 2005. David Cameron
:30:51. > :30:55.kept his rival on as Shadow Home Secretary, but David Davis never
:30:56. > :30:59.felt entirely comfortable. He ended his frontbench career when he
:31:00. > :31:06.triggered a by-election, which he won on a point of principle on civil
:31:07. > :31:11.liberties. Cameron regarded this as a vain act of folly. He's an
:31:12. > :31:17.extraordinary optimistic and self-confident person. I remember
:31:18. > :31:22.one of the Cameroons once saying to me in exasperation that he's the
:31:23. > :31:26.only person he knows who didn't go to Eton but has the same level of
:31:27. > :31:35.self-confidence you get from an Eton education. I fleefully retaled this
:31:36. > :31:41.to David Cameron who hooted with laughter. There's a sort of
:31:42. > :31:47.Churchill element to the journey. He hasn't actually changed parties but
:31:48. > :31:51.he's had his wilderness years. He's a very unusual politician, a man of
:31:52. > :31:56.great principle, as we see, a man prepared to go into the wilderness,
:31:57. > :32:00.but a man who reinvents himself and comes back. At the time of the EU
:32:01. > :32:04.referendum, David Davis had an inkling that he might be called up
:32:05. > :32:09.by a desperate David Cameron if he'd stayed on as Prime Minister after
:32:10. > :32:14.losing. So David Davis campaigned on the Leave side, though in a low-key
:32:15. > :32:21.way. I remember on the night of the referendum, I was at ITV. I can
:32:22. > :32:27.remember I was actually with Liam Fox in the studio with Tom about to
:32:28. > :32:31.do an interview, when it was officially declared, that's it,
:32:32. > :32:36.there's no way Remain can now win. Fox looked stunned. Then we left the
:32:37. > :32:41.studio after doing the interview. David Davis was there. He just went
:32:42. > :32:47.up to Liam Fox and said, "We've done it." He looked like he was really
:32:48. > :32:51.kind of celebrating. The call did come but from a new Number Ten,
:32:52. > :32:57.whilst he was catching up with an old colleague. He listened to his
:32:58. > :33:01.voice message. He said, oh, looks like Number Ten want to see me. Off
:33:02. > :33:05.he went up Downing Street. I went to the pub and watched him walk up the
:33:06. > :33:11.street from the screen. The next thing I know, he's standing out the
:33:12. > :33:15.front and we're going for a pizza. It was a completely ordinary evening
:33:16. > :33:18.with something slightly extraordinary happening in the
:33:19. > :33:23.middle of it. Theresa May took a gamble in appointing David Davis. In
:33:24. > :33:27.the past they've clashed on civil liberties and they're not exactly
:33:28. > :33:30.natural political soul mates. But David Davis has won the trust of the
:33:31. > :33:35.Prime Minister. The word in Number Ten is that he's coming into his own
:33:36. > :33:40.on Brexit and he's even turning into something of an elder statesman, no
:33:41. > :33:44.such praise for his fellow Brexiteers, Boris Johnson, and Liam
:33:45. > :33:48.Fox. Just down the street in his office in number nine, David Davis
:33:49. > :33:52.puts his success down to two factors - silence and what he calls
:33:53. > :33:58.proximity. He's avoided talking out of line and he's ensured that by
:33:59. > :34:02.squatting in the building next door, he can saunter into Number Ten if
:34:03. > :34:09.any problem arises. APPLAUSE
:34:10. > :34:14.As a priority we will pursue a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement
:34:15. > :34:17.with the European Union. The extent of David Davis' influence was shown
:34:18. > :34:21.when the Prime Minister set out her overall negotiating approach in a
:34:22. > :34:25.speech in Lancaster House earlier this year. Theresa May said she was
:34:26. > :34:31.prepared to walk away from a bad deal. With his belief in taking
:34:32. > :34:35.risk, but never acting recklessly, David Davis had told the Prime
:34:36. > :34:41.Minister the EU will only take the UK seriously if it shows it is
:34:42. > :34:46.unafraid of no deal. Obviously, it would be better both for the
:34:47. > :34:50.European Union and for the UK if a sensible, constructive deal is
:34:51. > :34:55.struck. But if, for whatever reason, they don't want to do that, we'll'
:34:56. > :35:00.be fine without a deal. We can manage without a deal. Better with
:35:01. > :35:04.one, but fine without one. David Davis knows such a path would be
:35:05. > :35:07.fraught with danger, a marked change from his tone during the referendum
:35:08. > :35:12.campaign, when he appeared to suggest Brexit would be
:35:13. > :35:17.straightforward. His EU counterpart believes British talk of a walkout
:35:18. > :35:23.is a bluff. I think the British Government, everyone in the British
:35:24. > :35:29.Government know that a non-deal is going to be a simple catastrophe. So
:35:30. > :35:32.if you want to walk out of the negotiations you'd better have good
:35:33. > :35:37.negotiating cards. Britain doesn't. So in that sense I hope that we
:35:38. > :35:43.never get into that state. The former Finnish Prime Minister
:35:44. > :35:47.advises David Davis that Michelle Barnier will expect him to agree to
:35:48. > :35:51.the principles, though not the exact sum of a financial exit bill. The
:35:52. > :35:55.landing zone for this negotiation is that you come up with the principles
:35:56. > :36:00.of the finances in the beginning. You see what the bill is then at the
:36:01. > :36:08.end of the day. Then you start the negotiations at the same time on
:36:09. > :36:11.Britain's new relationship. In these negotiations, because there's so
:36:12. > :36:15.many vested interests you will have a clash and a few of those clashes
:36:16. > :36:21.at the beginning. He also suggests it would be wise for David Davis to
:36:22. > :36:25.rebuild the personal rapport he established when they were fellow
:36:26. > :36:31.Europe ministers in the 1990s. I think they should go for quite a few
:36:32. > :36:34.glasses of wine and glasses of pints just the two of them to sort things
:36:35. > :36:39.out. The tough path of leaving the EU will finally be under way in the
:36:40. > :36:42.last week of March, when Theresa May triggers Article 50. That is a bit
:36:43. > :36:47.of a blow to David Davis, who had hoped to move this week. But the
:36:48. > :36:53.ever confident Brexit secretary carries on serenely. He's the only
:36:54. > :36:58.man I know who can swagger sitting down, one Tory grandee says.
:36:59. > :37:01.Imagine if every story on Newsnight was told in four different ways.
:37:02. > :37:04.I'll wait for a second to let that delightful thought sink in.
:37:05. > :37:07.But the American novelist Paul Auster has attempted just
:37:08. > :37:11.that in his new book, 4-3-2-1, a what-if story about
:37:12. > :37:15.the unfolding of an American life in the mid-to-late 20th century.
:37:16. > :37:17.Although Auster started work on his 900-page epic
:37:18. > :37:21.when President Donald Trump was still only a gleam
:37:22. > :37:25.in his barber's mirror, critics are calling it prophetic.
:37:26. > :37:29.You might remember that when the writer talked to me
:37:30. > :37:31.for Newsnight just before the US election, he was very gloomy about
:37:32. > :37:38.We sent Stephen Smith to see if he could cheer him up.
:37:39. > :37:42.Like that was ever gong to work to work.
:37:43. > :37:45.You've landed us after so many gamine, elegant books,
:37:46. > :37:55.Don't drop it on your foot, that's the only advice I can give you.
:37:56. > :37:58.Paul Auster's new novel had to be big because it imagines one man's
:37:59. > :38:04.The writer's been preoccupied about the unexpected
:38:05. > :38:07.turns our lives can take, since a tragedy involving a thunder
:38:08. > :38:11.storm at summer camp, when he was just 14.
:38:12. > :38:15.The boy directly in front of me, in other words, his feet
:38:16. > :38:23.were about that far from my head, as he was halfway through the fence.
:38:24. > :38:28.Lightning struck the barbed wire, electrocuted him on the spot.
:38:29. > :38:38.So I crawled beside him and I pulled him into the meadow.
:38:39. > :38:41.I stayed with him for an hour trying to warm him up.
:38:42. > :38:43.That was the moment that I understood that anything can
:38:44. > :38:47.It's an experience that has haunted me all my life.
:38:48. > :38:49.I've thought about it probably every day.
:38:50. > :39:00.It was the single most important thing that ever happened to me.
:39:01. > :39:03.The multiple lives of Auster's protagonist Ferguson
:39:04. > :39:08.unfold against the events of the mid-20th century.
:39:09. > :39:11."Those were the only two subjects that seemed to exist any more,
:39:12. > :39:14.Ferguson wrote in an letter to his aunt and uncle in California.
:39:15. > :39:17.The expanding bloodshed in Vietnam and the Civil
:39:18. > :39:22.White America at war with the yellow people of South East Asia.
:39:23. > :39:26.White America in conflict with its own black citizens,
:39:27. > :39:29.who are more and more in conflict with themselves, the movement that
:39:30. > :39:32.had already split into factions was splitting further into factions
:39:33. > :39:41.of factions and perhaps even factions of factions of factions.
:39:42. > :39:48.The lines drawn so sharply that few dared step over them any more."
:39:49. > :39:51.Well, we seem to be in that state right now
:39:52. > :39:58.It is eerie how 50 years later, we're living through
:39:59. > :40:08.a new wave of racial problems and another divided country.
:40:09. > :40:16.Suddenly, after the election, a new wave of activism that has not
:40:17. > :40:23.happened in this country since that period of my book, the '60s.
:40:24. > :40:27.He told Newsnight last year that he had no time
:40:28. > :40:31.We wondered what the president's whirlwind start had done
:40:32. > :40:37.My daughter showed me the tape of our interview,
:40:38. > :40:42.my interview with the BBC just before, and I look like a man
:40:43. > :40:48.I was stuttering in ways that I don't normally,
:40:49. > :41:00.I am, well, along with millions and millions and millions
:41:01. > :41:04.of other people in America, I feel as if I'm
:41:05. > :41:10.We've gotten somebody who is, I think, deranged.
:41:11. > :41:15.He's a demented, incompetent, unqualified person.
:41:16. > :41:19.In British terms could there be a sense that this is a class thing?
:41:20. > :41:22.That he's the brash, vulgar guy who's turned up
:41:23. > :41:25.on the street with his funny hair and gold bathroom, and he just
:41:26. > :41:34.He has a demonic talent for inciting crowds and getting
:41:35. > :41:41.His gibberish, it's utter nonsense that comes out of his mouth and yet,
:41:42. > :41:45.he has his loyal followers who are loving everything that
:41:46. > :41:51.But no, more seriously, what he is proposing to do
:41:52. > :41:54.is dismantle American society and the choice of his
:41:55. > :42:03.We were hearing that Trump has no sympathy for Nato.
:42:04. > :42:08.But he's appointed people who are pro-Nato and says that he's
:42:09. > :42:18.He's contradicting himself continually.
:42:19. > :42:23.I don't think he even knows what he thinks.
:42:24. > :42:27.That's all we have time for this evening. Evans here tomorrow. Till
:42:28. > :42:42.then, good night. Hello. It's been a mild start to the
:42:43. > :42:47.week. No frost overnight. Mild again for Tuesday. Plenty of cloud around
:42:48. > :42:48.first thing, mind you. A lot of thick cloud through Wales,