:00:00. > :00:00.Lights down for the big fight, round two.
:00:00. > :00:08.The issue is the end of the United Kingdom.
:00:09. > :00:42.First, who decides on a second Scottish referendum,
:00:43. > :00:47.And then the substantive argument, should Scotland leave one
:00:48. > :00:52.We'll look at the link between Scottish independence and Brexit.
:00:53. > :00:59.Will Theresa May be tempted to water down the latter
:01:00. > :01:02.Will Theresa May be tempted to water down the latter to avoid the former?
:01:03. > :01:04.Also tonight, the Netherlands prepares to vote tomorrow.
:01:05. > :01:08.We ask the Prime Minister will he be another domino in the fall of
:01:09. > :01:14.Not if I can help it. I am fighting to win. I have called this the
:01:15. > :01:19.quarter-finals. The half-finals will be the French elections and the
:01:20. > :01:24.finals will be the German elections. .
:01:25. > :01:26.And speaking of Europe, why has the Dutch boss
:01:27. > :01:42.of the Royal Opera House relocated Wagner to a London gentleman's club?
:01:43. > :01:45.Hello, we knew our nation was at a crossroads -
:01:46. > :01:47.but now it looks more like spaghetti junction.
:01:48. > :01:49.The issues of Brexit, Scotland and the union
:01:50. > :01:55.The re-shaping of the UK could be as dramatic as anything we've
:01:56. > :02:01.And at the helm of the UK and Scotland as this plays out,
:02:02. > :02:04.two women; each seeing this as the moment for history to be
:02:05. > :02:07.made, each diametrically opposed to each other and neither facing
:02:08. > :02:13.strong opposition from other parties.
:02:14. > :02:16.Today, Nicola Sturgeon said the timing of a second Scottish
:02:17. > :02:18.referendum should be decided by Scotland - Made in
:02:19. > :02:22.Well, it could be an interesting few years.
:02:23. > :02:27.Before we hear about the dilemma for Theresa May in working out how
:02:28. > :02:32.to respond to Nicola Sturgeon's request for a referendum,
:02:33. > :02:34.let's look at the diary and see the key dates.
:02:35. > :02:37.As far as Brexit is concerned - we trigger the process
:02:38. > :02:41.We'll get initial reactions and then negotiation proper will probably
:02:42. > :02:45.start after the French election in May.
:02:46. > :02:51.The EU has said it wants a draft deal by September next year,
:02:52. > :02:54.that can be signed off by everyone by March 2019 - that's the date
:02:55. > :02:59.that Britain would leave the EU, deal or no deal.
:03:00. > :03:03.So how does a Scottish referendum fit around that?
:03:04. > :03:05.Well, Nicola Sturgeon says the second referendum should be
:03:06. > :03:08.after any deal is known, but before we actually leave.
:03:09. > :03:10.Then even if Scotland is dragged out of the EU,
:03:11. > :03:14.it can already be preparing to get back in.
:03:15. > :03:18.Theresa May wants Brexit out of the way first.
:03:19. > :03:21.Before that would be the "worst possible timing" she says.
:03:22. > :03:23.After that, it gets tangled up in the UK
:03:24. > :03:29.General Election - May 2020.
:03:30. > :03:32.And after that, it gets tangled up with the next Scottish
:03:33. > :03:37.Well, Theresa May does not want a second Scottish
:03:38. > :03:40.referendum; the SNP did have it in their manifesto.
:03:41. > :03:49.And most ferociously we have to expect, over the timing of one.
:03:50. > :03:51.But there is another dimension - Theresa May could use
:03:52. > :03:58.Scotland as a reason to soften her demands for Brexit.
:03:59. > :03:59.Make the demands more Scotland friendly.
:04:00. > :04:02.That would upset her Brexiteer colleagues, but if she doesn't,
:04:03. > :04:05.Nick Watt has been looking at calculations that might be
:04:06. > :04:21.One United Kingdom. Two leaders and a third referendum? Just when you
:04:22. > :04:25.thought it was safe to venture outside, another vote emerges over
:04:26. > :04:30.the horizon. If we have learned one lesson over
:04:31. > :04:37.the last three years, it is that referendums are dangerous for the
:04:38. > :04:47.losers and the winners. So both Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May face
:04:48. > :04:51.a perilous path as Indr Ref 2 Hoves into view. Theresa May looks as if
:04:52. > :04:56.she's going to have a hard Brexit, which is going to be very, very bad
:04:57. > :05:00.for the United Kingdom and that is playing into the hands, as - has
:05:01. > :05:04.played into the hands of Nicola Sturgeon, because it gives her this
:05:05. > :05:07.extra reason, strengthens her argument for coming out of the
:05:08. > :05:11.United Kingdom because Scotland voted to stay and Nicola Sturgeon is
:05:12. > :05:14.also taking a risk with the referendum, I don't think there is
:05:15. > :05:18.any guarantee she's going to get it through and if she doesn't get it
:05:19. > :05:22.through, then her career is finished and the SNP are in great
:05:23. > :05:27.difficulties, so it's a very high risk strategy for both women.
:05:28. > :05:30.Westminster still retains ultimate sovereignty over Scotland and yes,
:05:31. > :05:37.there is a slimmed down Scotland office in Whitehall. This means that
:05:38. > :05:40.Nicola Sturgeon has to ask to hold a legally binding referendum on
:05:41. > :05:44.independence. Once that request has been tabled, after a vote in
:05:45. > :05:50.Holyrood, Theresa May faces a headache. If the Prime Minister
:05:51. > :05:55.rejects a referendum in the course of this UK parliament, she risks
:05:56. > :06:01.inflaming Scottish nationalists. Just imagine, if Theresa May adopts
:06:02. > :06:04.this line, just imagine the campaign that's going to take place to
:06:05. > :06:08.illustrate they're breaking manifesto commitments and trying to
:06:09. > :06:11.stop the First Minister fulfilling a manifesto commitment in defiance of
:06:12. > :06:16.the view of the Scottish parliament. For goodness sake. I mean, that's
:06:17. > :06:22.the sort of - Theresa May talks about a cliff-edge as far as Brexit
:06:23. > :06:30.is concerned, that's the sort of abyss that David Cameron once looked
:06:31. > :06:37.over. David Cameron granted that referendum to avoid a stand
:06:38. > :06:41.Catalonian-style standoff. The man who was Scotland's Secretary at the
:06:42. > :06:45.time of Indy Ref one says the nationalists would struggle to claim
:06:46. > :06:52.they're on a par with the Catalans because they were granted a proper
:06:53. > :06:56.vote. We did that, the Catalanian standoff was avoided. The problem
:06:57. > :07:00.for the SNP was they didn't get the answer they wanted so it was perhaps
:07:01. > :07:05.in their views not as decisive as they wanted it to be. I don't accept
:07:06. > :07:08.this attitude on the part of political parties who say, we have
:07:09. > :07:11.had a referendum, we don't agree with the result, we are going to ask
:07:12. > :07:14.people to do it all over again because we hope there will be a
:07:15. > :07:20.different result. I don't think that's fair and I don't think that's
:07:21. > :07:25.particularly democratic. But one veteran of Labour's battles with the
:07:26. > :07:28.SNP says Brexit is complicating Westminster's arguments against a
:07:29. > :07:32.second referendum. Nicola Sturgeon is saying she wants Scotland to be
:07:33. > :07:36.independent, able to make its own decisions, not to be part of the
:07:37. > :07:40.United Kingdom, held in and controlled by the other countries in
:07:41. > :07:45.the United Kingdom. Theresa May is wanting to take the United Kingdom
:07:46. > :07:48.out of the European Union again to keep sovereignty and to a country
:07:49. > :07:51.that's independent and not controlled by, or influenced by the
:07:52. > :07:56.other countries in the European Union. So it's a very much the same
:07:57. > :08:01.argument. Scotland's First Minister at the time of the referendum
:08:02. > :08:05.rejects one of Number 10's central arguments against a second vote.
:08:06. > :08:11.That both sides agreed to abide by the result. Nicola Sturgeon is a new
:08:12. > :08:14.First Minister. With a fresh mandate from the Scottish people saying that
:08:15. > :08:18.under the circumstances of Scotland being dragged out of Europe against
:08:19. > :08:21.the will of the Scottish people, the Scottish parliament should hold a
:08:22. > :08:26.referendum on independence, as clear as day.
:08:27. > :08:31.To stave off a second referendum, Theresa May will embark on a tour of
:08:32. > :08:35.all four corners of the UK to drum up support for her Brexit plan. No
:08:36. > :08:42.doubt she will gloss over a similar save the union tour by John Major in
:08:43. > :08:44.1997 as part of her unsuccessful campaign against the Scottish
:08:45. > :08:49.parliament. History can move in circles.
:08:50. > :08:51.So let's get a taste of views from Scotland.
:08:52. > :08:53.Two and a half years ago, the country was electrified
:08:54. > :08:56.by its referendum, but also fiercely divided.
:08:57. > :09:00.The polls indicate that opinion is still divided,
:09:01. > :09:05.Here are some views from Glasgow today.
:09:06. > :09:09.There's so much stuff the SNP are not doing
:09:10. > :09:14.on the groundwork that you say well, how can this be?
:09:15. > :09:21.How can you ask us to vote Yes for independence when ultimately
:09:22. > :09:24.you can't give us any kind of guarantees about the future?
:09:25. > :09:28.I wasn't at all surprised that she made the announcement.
:09:29. > :09:31.Although a bit earlier than I expected.
:09:32. > :09:40.And, of course, she feels she's in the driving seat now
:09:41. > :09:43.because she has the people on her side, but to be
:09:44. > :09:45.honest the situation has changed since 2014.
:09:46. > :09:50.So it may well be that a Yes vote would be on the cards for next year.
:09:51. > :09:57.I think it's definitely too early to call another
:09:58. > :10:00.referendum election in like 2018, 2019, there is so much uncertainty
:10:01. > :10:04.I think we voted 55% for being in the UK, 45% against.
:10:05. > :10:10.So for Miss Sturgeon asking for this, she's essentially wanting
:10:11. > :10:16.to go against the majority of the Scottish population.
:10:17. > :10:25.I think it's a good idea being independent but I think
:10:26. > :10:29.the First Minister is just taking it too soon, I think she should wait
:10:30. > :10:35.for the Brexit deal to be done, then she can take it from there.
:10:36. > :10:38.The big difference between this independence referendum
:10:39. > :10:41.in Scotland and the last one - of course - is that it will all take
:10:42. > :10:45.And that's something that will cause a lot of head
:10:46. > :10:48.scratching not just here - but in Brussels and the rest
:10:49. > :10:56.Our Diplomatic Editor, Mark Urban, is here.
:10:57. > :11:01.How have European leaders received this idea that this is complicating
:11:02. > :11:04.a factor that Scotland might itself try and separate from the UK? I
:11:05. > :11:09.think complicating factor is understating it. There is
:11:10. > :11:15.consternation and concern, diplomats don't like negotiations to fragment,
:11:16. > :11:19.to be getting wider when they should be getting narrower, the iruse
:11:20. > :11:22.multiply. I will fragment this programme and mention Northern
:11:23. > :11:24.Ireland which you haven't mentioned easterly, both Scotland and Northern
:11:25. > :11:30.Ireland are possibly on the road to something here and there is concern.
:11:31. > :11:33.Now people I have spoken to today emphasised that with the case of
:11:34. > :11:37.Scotland it must be an enabling decision by Theresa May and the
:11:38. > :11:44.British parliament that allows that to happen. They don't want a sort of
:11:45. > :11:48.unilateral Scottish referendum. Here is a former Polish Foreign Minister.
:11:49. > :11:54.We have here two competing principles, the right
:11:55. > :11:56.to self-determination and the inviability of borders.
:11:57. > :11:58.So I don't think anybody would object to a cessation
:11:59. > :12:00.that is done according to the constitution
:12:01. > :12:06.What would make people very nervous would be any unilateral
:12:07. > :12:24.That point well made. The Spanish are always a big player in this
:12:25. > :12:28.because of Catalan. Mentioned by Nick and you, 2014, they tried to go
:12:29. > :12:33.for it, the constitutional court and the upper House in Spain wouldn't
:12:34. > :12:36.let them. Of course it was a damp squib. Europe did not recognise the
:12:37. > :12:41.results of the vote and did not give them what they wanted in that sense.
:12:42. > :12:45.So that is a warning blow. Look, they've got those sort of issues in
:12:46. > :12:48.mind, the Spanish, the Belgians and other countries. Some other
:12:49. > :12:55.countries are more friendly to the idea of Scottish independence but in
:12:56. > :12:59.the end they've also got to consider the question of if these major
:13:00. > :13:02.questions about Scotland and Northern Ireland don't get resolved
:13:03. > :13:06.until after the Brexit negotiations is completed, won't that make for a
:13:07. > :13:10.simpler negotiation and won't it also make for a British Prime
:13:11. > :13:13.Minister who is under more pressure from those factors to agree to
:13:14. > :13:16.single market type terms? Mark, thank you very much.
:13:17. > :13:18.I'm now joined by passionate unionist and Conservative
:13:19. > :13:21.And Kirsty Blackman MP, who is on the SNP's
:13:22. > :13:32.Evening to you. Let's just find out about this, do you agree it has to
:13:33. > :13:36.be a Westminster sanctioned referendum and there is no go it
:13:37. > :13:41.alone referendum? That's a process that we are doing, Nicola set out we
:13:42. > :13:45.are putting forward the section 30 agreement and putting that to the UK
:13:46. > :13:49.Government in an attempt to try to get agreement there. It would be an
:13:50. > :13:52.illegitimate vote if it wasn't agreed to by Theresa May? It's not
:13:53. > :13:57.something we are planning to do. Right. Who gets to decide the timing
:13:58. > :14:03.of this? Who do you think gets to decide the timing of a second
:14:04. > :14:07.Scottish referendum? I think your answer answered the question, it's
:14:08. > :14:11.got to be a parliamentary vote in Westminster that gives authority and
:14:12. > :14:14.legitimacy to that. The people who control the parliamentary timetable
:14:15. > :14:18.is the Government. That's what governments do. So I think that the
:14:19. > :14:21.Government will have an important say probably an overriding say in
:14:22. > :14:25.deciding what time the referendum will take place. And should the
:14:26. > :14:28.Government listen to the Scottish Government's advice on that or
:14:29. > :14:32.should the British UK Government say, well, we don't like you having
:14:33. > :14:36.a referendum, you can go it after 2021? I am not speaking for the
:14:37. > :14:40.Prime Minister but from my point of view it seems odd that they should
:14:41. > :14:45.have a vote before Brexit has been completed. Because I think as Mark
:14:46. > :14:51.suggested, it completely complicates and confuses the issue. I would say
:14:52. > :14:54.that they should think - Brexit be over and done be, and then clear the
:14:55. > :14:56.table, and then we can have a referendum. That seems like a
:14:57. > :15:10.reasonable way to proceed. Scotland did not support Brexit, we
:15:11. > :15:16.overwhelmingly voted against. And the SNP were voted in with the
:15:17. > :15:21.majority of the constituency vote. Our manifesto said we would hold a
:15:22. > :15:25.referendum especially in these circumstances. The timing is a bit
:15:26. > :15:30.more complicated. The British Government and you are part of the
:15:31. > :15:35.UK and Europe population voted to be part of the UK, May say we do not
:15:36. > :15:39.want this complicated. In terms of the timeline we have chosen the EU
:15:40. > :15:44.timeline. Michel Barnier said they would spend 18 months negotiating
:15:45. > :15:48.and six months ratifying. So the shape of Brexit will be known. We
:15:49. > :15:52.will not know it is going to be ratified, Parliament could throw a
:15:53. > :15:56.spanner in the works. It surely would be useful to know what the
:15:57. > :16:01.final deal is. At that stage we will know the shape of the deal or it is
:16:02. > :16:06.no deal. Those are the options at that stage. Those of the options
:16:07. > :16:10.that Scotland will be faced with. It seems bizarre timing because in
:16:11. > :16:13.September 2018 we will know the shape of the deal but it will not
:16:14. > :16:19.have been ratified, that will take six months to ratify the deal and to
:16:20. > :16:23.have a Scottish referendum in the middle of the process of ratifying
:16:24. > :16:30.Brexit to me seems you are confusing the issue. That seems to be a
:16:31. > :16:35.bizarre time frame for a referendum. September 2019, that is quite close
:16:36. > :16:38.to the UK general election. There are a couple of issues, the main
:16:39. > :16:44.thing is to get Brexit over and done with. We know Scotland voted against
:16:45. > :16:48.but as a whole the UK voted for it. I think is reasonable to say let's
:16:49. > :16:55.get Brexit over and done with before embarking on another campaign. Would
:16:56. > :17:00.you accept a September 2019? We have put forward a compromise edition and
:17:01. > :17:04.continue to do so and we have moved a mile from our original proposals
:17:05. > :17:09.and the UK Government have not moved an inch. So the door is still open
:17:10. > :17:14.for compromise. You mean compromise on Scottish access to the single
:17:15. > :17:19.market? That is what we put forward. Let's talk about the negotiation for
:17:20. > :17:23.Brexit because one theory would be that Theresa May could soften her
:17:24. > :17:31.Brexit in order to perhaps make it more like -- more likely that
:17:32. > :17:37.Scotland would stay in the UK. The problem is you completely forget the
:17:38. > :17:42.fact there are 27 other countries we are negotiating with about Brexit.
:17:43. > :17:47.We do not have a choice. They might want us to be in the single market.
:17:48. > :17:51.We do not know what they were like, but the position will be. So to
:17:52. > :17:55.frame the idea or notion that somehow the Prime Minister could say
:17:56. > :17:59.I'm going to soft in this together another deal on the other side, I do
:18:00. > :18:06.not think it is realistic. You're dealing with the EU, negotiating not
:18:07. > :18:09.with just Nicola Sturgeon. If the British Government tried to get
:18:10. > :18:13.something closer to single market access for the whole UK, not the
:18:14. > :18:19.special Scotland arrangement you have come up with but something
:18:20. > :18:25.closer, a softer Brexit, would that then stymie that? Theresa May in the
:18:26. > :18:30.face of all evidence to the contrary is trying to proceed with this hard
:18:31. > :18:34.Brexit. But would it make a difference if it was soft. She has
:18:35. > :18:38.had loads of evidence suggesting hard Brexit is damaging. Tens of
:18:39. > :18:43.thousands of jobs being lost in Scotland. And nothing so far has
:18:44. > :18:47.made her soften stance and I do not imagine this would do so. It almost
:18:48. > :18:49.sounded earlier as if you were saying that there was still time for
:18:50. > :18:54.a deal. You said you'd been trying to get the deal and she has not
:18:55. > :18:58.moved an inch. I'm interested in what that inch would have to be for
:18:59. > :19:03.you to say the referendum would be put back in the box. We've spoken
:19:04. > :19:07.about single market access for Scotland, but it would be beneficial
:19:08. > :19:13.for the whole of the UK. And if the EU said you cannot have that, and
:19:14. > :19:17.Donald Tusk at one point said it is hard Brexit or no Brexit, if the EU
:19:18. > :19:23.did not allow single market access, with that then mean you would say we
:19:24. > :19:30.will stick with Brexit. If Theresa May was to begin to prioritise the
:19:31. > :19:33.needs of British citizens and the task of Scotland, that would be a
:19:34. > :19:39.compromise position. How do you interpret what hearing? Well the
:19:40. > :19:43.other problem is what the premises suggested we were doing, essentially
:19:44. > :19:51.playing games, as Nicola Sturgeon is doing. This is the negotiation and
:19:52. > :19:55.her saying we will have a referendum in September 2019 is an opening
:19:56. > :19:58.gambit. She's saying I'm going to threaten you with a referendum if
:19:59. > :20:02.you do not accede to my terms Brexit. I do not think the Prime
:20:03. > :20:07.Minister, I do not know her especially well, but I do not think
:20:08. > :20:11.she will be... Playing hardball on that might lead to the
:20:12. > :20:15.disintegration of the UK. I think the independence issue will be
:20:16. > :20:20.debated on its own merits. A third of the people who voted yes actually
:20:21. > :20:27.voted for Brexit. That never comes up. But it is an issue. Some people
:20:28. > :20:31.in Scotland, a large number, want independence from Britain but also
:20:32. > :20:32.want independence from Brussels. So that is a big issue. We need to
:20:33. > :20:34.leave it there. Thank you both. The Conservative MP Craig Mackinley,
:20:35. > :20:36.who beat Nigel Farage in the Thanet South seat at the last
:20:37. > :20:39.general election, has been interviewed by police over
:20:40. > :20:41.the election spending There are strict rules
:20:42. > :20:47.on what can be spent - the Conservatives have been accused
:20:48. > :20:50.of bussing in party workers to marginal seats, and not counting
:20:51. > :20:52.the spending as part The charges are the subject
:20:53. > :20:57.of police investigations in different seats,
:20:58. > :21:00.and an Electoral Commission The issue is also causing tensions
:21:01. > :21:04.within the Tory party. Let's talk to our political
:21:05. > :21:16.editor, Nick Watt. What has actually happened today?
:21:17. > :21:21.Well to developments in this long-running story about whether the
:21:22. > :21:25.Tories as you said have been using general election funding that should
:21:26. > :21:30.have been for national spending on a local spend. Craig Mackinley was
:21:31. > :21:36.interviewed under caution by police. He defeated Nigel Farage but Ukip
:21:37. > :21:41.leader in that campaign and Nigel Farage said if there was to be a
:21:42. > :21:48.by-election he could run again. And also in that campaign Theresa May's
:21:49. > :21:52.chief of staff helped out in the campaign and the allegation is that
:21:53. > :21:57.national funds were used to pay for hotel rooms for those staff. And the
:21:58. > :22:01.second development is that, Carney, Conservative MP for Lincoln, one of
:22:02. > :22:05.the MPs under investigation, has written a blistering e-mail to the
:22:06. > :22:08.party chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin effectively saying the
:22:09. > :22:14.leadership is casting these MPs adrift. This e-mail is strongly
:22:15. > :22:18.worded and shows the strength, it was forced reported by Sky News and
:22:19. > :22:23.it says to Patrick McLoughlin, at what dazed you think you the bad
:22:24. > :22:30.gene -- the party might inform us that another media storm is coming.
:22:31. > :22:33.We did not create this mess, GCHQ did and their professional
:22:34. > :22:38.reputations are not being trashed. What is Newsnight learned about
:22:39. > :22:41.these investigations? Within the cabinet I'm hearing a confidence
:22:42. > :22:45.that there will not be successful criminal prosecutions. I'm told for
:22:46. > :22:51.that to happen you would have to prove intent, intent to deceive. And
:22:52. > :22:56.this source told me on the central thing, this point about National
:22:57. > :23:00.buses going locally and not being declared locally, it would be
:23:01. > :23:05.difficult to say an MP intended to deceive on that. They may have been
:23:06. > :23:08.naive but no intent to deceive. But Newsnight has significant
:23:09. > :23:20.development on the story, we've spoken to a senior Tory figure who
:23:21. > :23:22.has told Newsnight there is going to be trouble for the party but not
:23:23. > :23:25.fatal trouble. This figure says, the party will definitely be fined for
:23:26. > :23:28.breaking the rules, but this was then says they will be surprised if
:23:29. > :23:30.there are criminal prosecutions and interestingly finally, the source
:23:31. > :23:36.said they would be surprised if any of the MPs under investigation are
:23:37. > :23:38.officially a formally unseeded and obliged to defend their seat in a
:23:39. > :23:42.by-election. Thank you very much. A much anticipated general election
:23:43. > :23:46.that will either be the latest uprising led by the forces
:23:47. > :23:49.of populism, or the first recent The far-right candidate,
:23:50. > :23:52.Geert Wilders, with his anti-Islam, anti-EU rhetoric,
:23:53. > :23:54.is at or near the top His Freedom Party probably
:23:55. > :24:00.won't take control of government - that would require coalition
:24:01. > :24:04.partners he doesn't have. But his candidacy has put
:24:05. > :24:06.the Netherlands at the centre of international attention,
:24:07. > :24:08.as they cope with a diplomatic crisis with Turkey,
:24:09. > :24:11.fears of Russian hacking, and the attention of
:24:12. > :24:15.the American right. Gabriel Gatehouse has this
:24:16. > :24:30.report from the Hague. Usually a laid-back affair,
:24:31. > :24:37.comfortably ignored This time the European establishment
:24:38. > :24:46.is wondering whether Dutch votes Among the 28 parties
:24:47. > :24:54.vying for seats, one man The rise of Geert Wilders has left
:24:55. > :25:01.mainstream politicians reeling. Close the borders, ban
:25:02. > :25:07.the Koran, leave the EU The elites are struggling
:25:08. > :25:13.to formulate a response. This morning, through the window
:25:14. > :25:16.of a cafe on a Hague side street, the Prime Minister was taking
:25:17. > :25:20.questions from passers by. It was a slightly awkward affair,
:25:21. > :25:26.broadcast live on TV. In response to Geert Wilders,
:25:27. > :25:31.he too is taking a hard Sometimes the Prime Minister told
:25:32. > :25:36.on TV and the newspapers that people with a background that doesn't
:25:37. > :25:39.want to belong here, just go away. And if the Prime Minister
:25:40. > :25:45.is speaking like that, it hurts, you know, you feel like,
:25:46. > :25:47.am I part of the Can I ask you a question in English,
:25:48. > :25:59.from Newsnight on the BBC? Is Holland going to be the next
:26:00. > :26:06.domino to fall in the sudden death So I'm fighting,
:26:07. > :26:13.I'm fighting to win. And I have called this
:26:14. > :26:16.the quarterfinals. The half finals will be the French
:26:17. > :26:19.elections and the finals will be And this can be the first election
:26:20. > :26:24.in five elections in a row, having had Brexit, having had
:26:25. > :26:28.the Trump election in the US. This being the third
:26:29. > :26:30.in a row of five. This is going to be the first one
:26:31. > :26:33.way this domino stone So thank you very much
:26:34. > :26:36.for this excellent question. And my compliments for your
:26:37. > :26:39.excellent programme on BBC Two every Members of Parliament are elected
:26:40. > :26:55.by proportional representation. Dutch politics is all about
:26:56. > :27:00.consensus, not handbrake turns. The Dutch system basically
:27:01. > :27:03.enforces compromise. Whatever happens in the election,
:27:04. > :27:06.there will be a coalition, And in fact, Geert Wilders
:27:07. > :27:10.even if he wins the largest number of seats, might not end up
:27:11. > :27:14.being part of that coalition. But his power lies not in the fact
:27:15. > :27:17.that he might become Prime Minister, His power lies in his ability
:27:18. > :27:28.to shake things up. There were riots on the
:27:29. > :27:31.streets this weekend. Such is the tension now
:27:32. > :27:35.about the question of Islam, the government decided it was unsafe
:27:36. > :27:41.for a Turkish Minister to visit. Some Dutch citizens of Turkish
:27:42. > :27:47.origin were very unhappy. Others who witnessed
:27:48. > :27:49.the violence were thinking well, They had flags from Turkey
:27:50. > :27:56.and they yelled and they How does it make you feel
:27:57. > :28:10.about this election coming up? I think many people will decide
:28:11. > :28:15.to choose for Geert Wilders. By the law of unintended
:28:16. > :28:19.consequences, an attempt to appease the Geert Wilders vote has led
:28:20. > :28:22.to a diplomatic crisis. Turkey has suspended high-level
:28:23. > :28:25.diplomatic relations Such discord between Nato allies
:28:26. > :28:31.will come as an unexpected bonus to the Kremlin,
:28:32. > :28:34.which has already cast its shadow Amid fears of Russian
:28:35. > :28:39.hacking, the vote will be I asked the Dutch interior minister
:28:40. > :28:45.what evidence he had seen I saw a cloud hanging
:28:46. > :28:52.over our election results where people could conceivably
:28:53. > :28:55.in this very polarised atmosphere that we also currently have
:28:56. > :28:57.in the Dutch political landscape, conceivably argue that the result
:28:58. > :29:01.would not be fair. And I decided I did not
:29:02. > :29:09.want to take any risk with that. The mere fact of what was publicly
:29:10. > :29:12.debated in the United States, in combination with the public
:29:13. > :29:14.concern right now about conceivable interference, is sufficient
:29:15. > :29:16.for me to decide this. But you appreciate it is a very
:29:17. > :29:19.different in to say we want to eliminate all doubt,
:29:20. > :29:21.but we have no evidence, to saying there is evidence
:29:22. > :29:26.and therefore we have taken action. And what I say is we want to
:29:27. > :29:29.eliminate all doubt and I don't... The Interior Ministry hired
:29:30. > :29:38.a cyber security company to assess the vulnerability
:29:39. > :29:43.of their electoral system. Fox IT had previously investigated
:29:44. > :29:47.attempts to hack the Dutch government enquiry into the downing
:29:48. > :29:51.of the Malaysian airline MH17 by a group known
:29:52. > :29:55.as Fancy Bear or APT28, thought to be connected
:29:56. > :29:59.to Russian intelligence. If we look at this group as APT28
:30:00. > :30:03.and their previous targets, the White House, Nato Allied
:30:04. > :30:07.countries, the Democratic National Committee in the US,
:30:08. > :30:13.the Dutch security board, so yes, it makes sense
:30:14. > :30:17.that it is their daily job to breach Dutch organisations and ministries
:30:18. > :30:26.to get information and to get information and an advantage
:30:27. > :30:31.in the things that they're doing There is no suggestion
:30:32. > :30:34.the Russians are trying to help Geert Wilders,
:30:35. > :30:35.but then he has His vision of a West swamped
:30:36. > :30:39.by immigrants has been influential So it is five minutes to 12
:30:40. > :30:43.for you guys as well. Here he is in Florida in 2014,
:30:44. > :30:47.speaking at an event hosted by David Horowitz,
:30:48. > :30:50.who is close to some of the most senior figures
:30:51. > :30:53.in the Trump White House and who has given more than 100,000 euros
:30:54. > :30:55.to the Geert Wilders campaign. I did not support Geert Wilders
:30:56. > :31:04.because he anti-Islam. I support him because he's standing
:31:05. > :31:07.up for free speech in Europe. I think all of us are happy
:31:08. > :31:10.with Brexit and happy with the restoration
:31:11. > :31:13.of the nation state. Because, you know, the EU
:31:14. > :31:21.is an undemocratic bureaucracy. Geert Wilders took part
:31:22. > :31:24.in a televised debate last night but otherwise he rarely campaigns
:31:25. > :31:26.in public, preferring When the Prime Minister arrived
:31:27. > :31:40.for a rally in The Hague this A pack of journalists
:31:41. > :31:44.in search of a crisis. A politician in search
:31:45. > :31:56.of an election. Polls will shut at 8.00pm our time -
:31:57. > :31:58.there will be a decent The formal result based on a full
:31:59. > :32:03.manual count takes a while - And so to France -
:32:04. > :32:10.the other big election this spring. Marine Le Pen still leading
:32:11. > :32:13.the polls for the first round - but trailing Emmanuel Macron
:32:14. > :32:15.in the second. The challenge for her is to win
:32:16. > :32:19.in a second round, when the election comes down to the final two -
:32:20. > :32:24.the polls show her losing then. But much of the drama is not around
:32:25. > :32:29.the top two candidates - it concerns number three,
:32:30. > :32:32.Francois Fillon of the centre rght. He was ahead, poised to be
:32:33. > :32:34.president, but has been caught up in a scandal,
:32:35. > :32:36.allegedly hiring his own family for non-jobs
:32:37. > :32:41.at the expense of the taxpayer. He has now been placed under
:32:42. > :32:44.formal investigation Earlier I spoke to French
:32:45. > :32:48.journalist Christine Ockrent. I asked her what happened
:32:49. > :32:50.to Francois Fillon today, and how significant today's
:32:51. > :32:55.development is for his campaign? Well, Evan, it's yet another turn
:32:56. > :32:59.in this incredible presidential The Conservative candidate
:33:00. > :33:08.has been put under full investigation by the judges,
:33:09. > :33:13.which is really one step away from being formally charged
:33:14. > :33:19.for embezzlement with public funds. You know, paying his wife and
:33:20. > :33:24.children for supposedly fake jobs. Now, that investigation now
:33:25. > :33:30.is going to take months. So paradoxically, if Fillion
:33:31. > :33:38.was to be elected, which I very much doubt at this stage,
:33:39. > :33:46.he would be off the track for five years because the French President
:33:47. > :33:49.cannot be put to trial when actually What is interesting, though,
:33:50. > :33:59.is that the core constituency of Francois Fillon is convinced
:34:00. > :34:03.that he is a victim. Victim of, you know,
:34:04. > :34:10.leftist media conspiracy, And so his core constituency,
:34:11. > :34:15.however they have shrunk, The thing is that Francois Fillon
:34:16. > :34:21.won the primaries, the Conservative And that he has been extremely
:34:22. > :34:32.stubborn and indeed resilient in saying to his so-called political
:34:33. > :34:36.friends, look, I'm the only And no other one can
:34:37. > :34:43.actually step in. They've got until Friday to find
:34:44. > :34:47.another candidate, is that right? The last, last day that they could
:34:48. > :34:50.replace him is this week, and then the election rule
:34:51. > :34:52.is you are stuck And my opinion is that
:34:53. > :35:06.Francois Fillon will remain What effect can the Dutch election
:35:07. > :35:14.have on the French election, Well, I think that if Geert Wilders,
:35:15. > :35:21.who I think has been much overplayed by the French media for obvious
:35:22. > :35:24.reasons, you know, the comparison If Geert Wilders does not get more
:35:25. > :35:30.votes than the outgoing centre-right Prime Minister,
:35:31. > :35:35.I think that will be bad news for Marine Le Pen because it
:35:36. > :35:38.will show that that populist wave Although of course the Dutch
:35:39. > :35:47.system is very different from ours because it's
:35:48. > :35:52.a proportional vote whereas in France again it's
:35:53. > :35:58.the majority vote and that's why Marine Le Pen has only two seats
:35:59. > :36:01.in our Parliament today. Well we're watching that one closely
:36:02. > :36:05.as we continue to do. Now if you wanted to escape
:36:06. > :36:12.all the talk of Brexit by enjoying a night at the opera,
:36:13. > :36:14.be careful, because there are hints The Danish citizen Kasper Holten,
:36:15. > :36:20.has been director of opera at the Royal Opera House since 2011;
:36:21. > :36:27.he has returned to his Danish homeland, leaving opera-goers
:36:28. > :36:29.with an epic five-hour Wagner It's usually set in the 16th century
:36:30. > :36:35.but Holten has introduced a more modern setting and -
:36:36. > :36:38.not for the first time in his career It's being seen as a nod
:36:39. > :36:41.to the changing political climate I could never do it
:36:42. > :36:52.big enough for Kasper! I can't draw enough
:36:53. > :36:57.attention to myself. He's 100 miles an hour and it's
:36:58. > :37:02.very difficult to catch I used to be kind of the engine,
:37:03. > :37:09.you know, running around and I still do that but he puts me
:37:10. > :37:13.in the shade. Kasper Holten, for the past six
:37:14. > :37:29.years the energetic Dane in charge of opera at London's
:37:30. > :37:31.Royal Opera House. Holten's now departed leaving
:37:32. > :37:34.as his swansong a new take on Wagner's Die Meistersinger von
:37:35. > :37:37.Nurnberg. Instead of the usual setting
:37:38. > :37:43.in a small German town, Holten's moved the opera to a smart
:37:44. > :37:51.London gentleman's club. It talks a lot about guilt and clubs
:37:52. > :38:01.and groups and tradition. I must admit coming to London
:38:02. > :38:05.understanding that there are still clubs where women are not
:38:06. > :38:08.allowed members in 2017, that that's even legal,
:38:09. > :38:11.was to me a shock and that sense of tradition is something that
:38:12. > :38:17.I think must be subverted. Wagner's Meistersinger
:38:18. > :38:19.is all about subverting It tells the story of a guild
:38:20. > :38:26.of master singers who hold The prize, remember this is set more
:38:27. > :38:30.than 500 years ago, is marriage Into the fray comes an outsider
:38:31. > :38:41.with a very different Nurnberg is a village, it becomes
:38:42. > :38:50.alive in the Meistersinger and then this new virus comes into town that
:38:51. > :38:54.keeps these old men on the balls of their feet and will
:38:55. > :39:01.they accept something new? Die Meistersinger is about change
:39:02. > :39:07.and about the new but also So of course you could bring our
:39:08. > :39:15.Brexit into a piece like this. I think it's very timely,
:39:16. > :39:17.there is change everywhere and we just have to look
:39:18. > :39:20.here in England, in America, It's topical, you know,
:39:21. > :39:25.there is kind of a sinister This populist kind of message that's
:39:26. > :39:33.going out from a lot of politicians When you're directing
:39:34. > :39:40.Meistersinger a lot of people ask about nationalism
:39:41. > :39:43.what are you going to do about that because there is a famous speech
:39:44. > :39:46.towards the end where it's about national identity
:39:47. > :39:50.and national tradition. In the opera Bryn Terfel's
:39:51. > :40:12.character sings of fighting for a sovereign Germany in the face
:40:13. > :40:21.of foreign invaders. On the surface, he's
:40:22. > :40:25.referring to German music traditions but the undertone
:40:26. > :40:30.is about much more. You can say it's an opera
:40:31. > :40:38.about Brexit, you can say it's an opera about populism,
:40:39. > :40:41.you can say it's an opera about London in the sense that
:40:42. > :40:46.all these things are about change. All these things are about fear,
:40:47. > :40:49.about people struggling with how For sure, there are resonances
:40:50. > :41:03.of the language around Brexit when you hear people talk
:41:04. > :41:06.about the fear of foreign influences, the need to pull
:41:07. > :41:09.back from the world. So certainly it feels very topical
:41:10. > :41:12.in that sense but to say it's an opera about Brexit would make it
:41:13. > :41:16.much more simple than it is. Kasper Holten isn't just
:41:17. > :41:19.reflecting on Brexit, Trump and populism in this opera
:41:20. > :41:22.but also looking back on his time in London where he hasn't always
:41:23. > :41:26.been met with acclaim. A production he oversaw that
:41:27. > :41:28.depicted a violent rape on stage William Tell by Rossini
:41:29. > :41:34.a couple of years ago which famously here had a real,
:41:35. > :41:37.you know, on first night there was a chorus of boos
:41:38. > :41:40.and it felt very angry. There was a lot of people
:41:41. > :41:42.in the audience really didn't So, of course when I have to portray
:41:43. > :41:49.on stage a community reacting to an artist they don't like that
:41:50. > :41:52.would be the natural Like it's really, everyone is like,
:41:53. > :42:05.I am sorry is it just me, is this I had an almost physical reaction
:42:06. > :42:09.remembering what it was like that I can't imagine, I don't know
:42:10. > :42:17.what it would be like to stand on the stage having just offered up
:42:18. > :42:20.something that you really care about and have people yell boo
:42:21. > :42:23.at you and it's vicious. If the production was about me
:42:24. > :42:28.trying to say boo you back how primitive and stupid
:42:29. > :42:30.and uninteresting would that be? The opera is not about Kasper
:42:31. > :42:37.and not about Kasper's experiences but it's me trying to make it
:42:38. > :42:39.real and personal. Perhaps the most personal
:42:40. > :42:41.touch in this opera He's changed the ending, not
:42:42. > :42:46.for the first time in his career, rejecting Wagner's happily ever
:42:47. > :42:51.after finale where the tenor gets the girl and joins
:42:52. > :42:53.the Meistersinger singers. In Holten's production,
:42:54. > :42:55.she turns them all down Somewhat controversial, it's a nod,
:42:56. > :43:03.albeit a subtle one, to a rejection of populism
:43:04. > :43:28.of any kind. Hello. In the clearer rural parts of
:43:29. > :43:30.eastern and northern England and Scotland tonight there could be a
:43:31. > :43:34.touch of frost around but sunny spells to begin the day tomorrow. A
:43:35. > :43:36.lot of cloud in the west from the word go tomorrow. Damp and drizzly
:43:37. > :43:37.in the morning