:00:00. > :00:00.Talking Tory - what direction will Theresa May's election
:00:00. > :00:12.We've heard so little of her plans on spending, defence,
:00:13. > :00:18.austerity and foreign aid - what goes; what stays?
:00:19. > :00:23.We talk to those who knew the last manifesto inside out.
:00:24. > :00:26.And to the Tory leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson.
:00:27. > :00:28.The Scottish Conservatives always put the union first,
:00:29. > :00:34.That's why whether you're a tactical voter, and I'm not
:00:35. > :00:36.necessarily someone who expounds that, but if you're
:00:37. > :00:38.a principled voter, your vote, if you don't want the SNP,
:00:39. > :00:41.if you don't want to encourage their tunnel vision
:00:42. > :00:43.to break up Britain, is to vote for the
:00:44. > :00:47.What do you do if you're a Labour voting Brexiteer who likes this
:00:48. > :00:59.And non-Tory area as we are, we're not going to vote for those, but who
:01:00. > :01:04.else have we got in front of us? And how do Lib Dems claw back
:01:05. > :01:07.the South West that went Just two years ago this month, David
:01:08. > :01:19.Cameron's Conservative manifesto was promising a Brighter,
:01:20. > :01:22.More Secure Future. An irony presumably not
:01:23. > :01:24.lost on the former PM - What will she chose
:01:25. > :01:30.to promise the nation? Brexit determined her reign,
:01:31. > :01:33.Brexit has dominated it so far. But what about all the other stuff
:01:34. > :01:36.that decides how we vote? Spending plans, schools,
:01:37. > :01:41.foreign aid and defence. What will she set out to achieve -
:01:42. > :01:44.and what may trip her up Our political editor Nick Watt
:01:45. > :01:48.has been having a look, Nick, let's just focus
:01:49. > :02:00.on the aid budget. There is something of a battle going
:02:01. > :02:05.on at senior levels of the Conservative Party. 0.7% pledge of
:02:06. > :02:08.gross national income that should be spent on overseas aid. There are
:02:09. > :02:13.senior figures who are saying that should be rolled in with a 3% of GDP
:02:14. > :02:18.that is spent on defence. The much smaller amount spent on issue
:02:19. > :02:22.national trade, and that should create an overarching security
:02:23. > :02:27.budget that would come to around 3% of GDP. Now, that would run into
:02:28. > :02:32.trouble potentially with the official development assistance
:02:33. > :02:36.rules which govern what you can define as international aid
:02:37. > :02:40.spending. What kind of resistance is she getting on this? I think it's
:02:41. > :02:45.fair to say the International Development Secretary will be keen
:02:46. > :02:47.to keep the ring fenced budget. She believes it benefits developing
:02:48. > :02:52.countries and has a benefit to the UK, because it helps to create a
:02:53. > :02:55.much more stable and safer world. But also its defenders believe they
:02:56. > :03:00.have some powerful arguments, some of which are being heard
:03:01. > :03:03.sympathetically at senior levels. In the first place there is a feeling
:03:04. > :03:08.that, would you potentially be sending a signal that the UK at the
:03:09. > :03:10.time of Brexit is stepping back from the wider world? That's being heard
:03:11. > :03:25.sympathetically. The second one is, the biggest threat to
:03:26. > :03:27.the Conservatives in this general election will be from the Liberal
:03:28. > :03:30.Democrats. Do you want to be handing them a gift? With these issues in
:03:31. > :03:34.mind we thought today we would look at the approach Theresa May may
:03:35. > :03:38.adopt in those non-Brexit issues. The architects of David Cameron's
:03:39. > :03:45.modernisation project always feared it could go up in a puff of smoke.
:03:46. > :03:50.Their nemesis Theresa May now has a chance to remodel the Conservative
:03:51. > :03:54.offer for the people she wants to champion, ordinary working families.
:03:55. > :03:59.Her election manifesto will give the Prime Minister the opportunity to
:04:00. > :04:04.jump and mend or perhaps build on some of David Cameron's signature
:04:05. > :04:08.themes. One of his former advisers hoped she seizes her chance. She has
:04:09. > :04:12.this opportunity to reset the whole social settlement of our country,
:04:13. > :04:16.and with an opposition in such disarray, the way is open for her to
:04:17. > :04:24.introduce a really radical reforms. I think we're in 1945 moment.
:04:25. > :04:28.There's a huge international event happening, but behind the scenes in
:04:29. > :04:33.1945 they were preparing for the welfare state. I would like to see
:04:34. > :04:36.Theresa May Bibi Glenn Catley of our time. Behind the scenes at
:04:37. > :04:39.Westminster there is something of a pre-manifesto battle going on as
:04:40. > :04:44.ministers seek to promote cherished ideas and, in some cases, to grab
:04:45. > :04:49.territory from rival colleagues. There is the sound of sniping in the
:04:50. > :04:54.air. Newsnight understands there is a
:04:55. > :04:59.push in Whitehall to change David Cameron's landmark commitment to
:05:00. > :05:03.spend 0.7% of gross national income on overseas aid. There are calls to
:05:04. > :05:08.bundle this up with defence spending into one overarching budget, a move
:05:09. > :05:12.that being resisted by the intervention International
:05:13. > :05:19.Development Secretary. Priti Patel has a reputation as a right-wing aid
:05:20. > :05:23.sceptic but she believes the ring fenced aid budget delivers enormous
:05:24. > :05:28.benefits to developing countries. That is a risk, that you lose if you
:05:29. > :05:31.remove that target, you lose all the goodwill that comes from a
:05:32. > :05:36.significant amount of the population that does actually believe in our
:05:37. > :05:40.overseas aid spending. We always recognised and one of the ways we
:05:41. > :05:45.justify the overseas spending as it is part of our soft power and is
:05:46. > :05:49.also part of our defence, because if we help poor countries and
:05:50. > :05:54.developing nations to grow and prosper economically, then we can
:05:55. > :05:57.trade with them and partner them. One of the most expensive
:05:58. > :06:02.commitments made by David Cameron was the so-called pension triple
:06:03. > :06:07.lock, the pledge that the state pension rises by at least 2.5% or
:06:08. > :06:11.inflation or average earnings if they are higher. Newsnight
:06:12. > :06:15.understands ministers are taking a hard look at this commitment and no
:06:16. > :06:21.decisions have been taken. I don't think it sustainable for
:06:22. > :06:24.long and it's had its effect. We've seen pensioner poverty falling.
:06:25. > :06:27.Pensioner incomes are higher than disposable incomes for working age
:06:28. > :06:32.families. The work of the triple lock is coming to an end. We do need
:06:33. > :06:36.to rebalance the fiscal settlement towards younger people. We need to
:06:37. > :06:40.cut costs overall, I'm afraid, still, painful though that is. But
:06:41. > :06:45.where there is public spending changes to be made, I'd like to see
:06:46. > :06:49.a greater investment in younger people. That will ultimately bring
:06:50. > :06:52.the costs down in the future. I think there is an unfairness in the
:06:53. > :06:57.current measure and we need to rebalance a little.
:06:58. > :07:01.David Cameron unleashed a schools revolution with the creation of a
:07:02. > :07:06.new generation of free schools, but there was one line he never crossed,
:07:07. > :07:12.selection by academic ability. Theresa May will put her plans
:07:13. > :07:14.Manaus grammar schools in the manifesto but Newsnight understands
:07:15. > :07:21.this will be modest. The Prime Minister sees the creation of just
:07:22. > :07:24.20 new grammars. A wounded Philip Hammond will adopt
:07:25. > :07:28.a highly cautious approach as he tries to stabilise the public
:07:29. > :07:33.finances. Newsnight understands that under current thinking of the
:07:34. > :07:37.manifesto will avoid making major commitments on the big ticket item
:07:38. > :07:40.of social care ahead of the publication of a Green paper later
:07:41. > :07:43.this year. This government isn't going to make
:07:44. > :07:48.a dramatic breach with the last one, in terms of the overall spending.
:07:49. > :07:51.The fact is we still have a significant Budget deficit, we still
:07:52. > :07:55.have a national debt that needs to be paid down and the right thing to
:07:56. > :07:58.do for the long-term, for the next generation, for the people who will
:07:59. > :08:04.be growing up after Brexit is to get our national accounts into balance.
:08:05. > :08:06.The curtain finally fell on the Cameron project today when George
:08:07. > :08:11.Osborne announced he would take his leave of Parliament. The baton has
:08:12. > :08:19.passed to an older and very different generation of
:08:20. > :08:21.conservatives. Lots to chew over. How far from the Cameron manifesto
:08:22. > :08:23.is Theresa May likely to move? Camilla Cavendish was Head
:08:24. > :08:25.of Policy for David Cameron, Andrew Mitchell was
:08:26. > :08:39.the International Development Lovely to have you both here. Let's
:08:40. > :08:42.go through them. This 0.7% which has been so strongly ring fenced, and
:08:43. > :08:47.you will remember it well, it under threat? Should it be negotiable now?
:08:48. > :08:51.I hope not and I don't think so. It wasn't David Cameron who first
:08:52. > :08:56.committed the Conservative Party to the 0.7, it was Michael Howard when
:08:57. > :09:00.he was leader. Not exactly a limp wristed lefty. It is a core promise
:09:01. > :09:05.of the Conservative Party. I very much hope it will be retrained. Of
:09:06. > :09:10.course it is also the law of the land now, we passed as legislation
:09:11. > :09:14.to try and take it out of party politics. It could be bundled,
:09:15. > :09:18.remain the same? It can't actually, it's not just the money but the
:09:19. > :09:22.rules under which it is spent. The pooled funds on defence diplomacy
:09:23. > :09:26.and development, within that ring fence there is another ring fence
:09:27. > :09:30.that protects the development budget. If you take away the rules
:09:31. > :09:35.will be plundered by other departments. Can we get through this
:09:36. > :09:41.one? My experience is that is what happens. It is under threat, Andrew,
:09:42. > :09:44.as you know. The UK is the second largest aid donor in the world. A
:09:45. > :09:53.lot of people feel is too much. You and I both know when you're trying
:09:54. > :09:55.to go into very, very poor countries and deal with sometimes very corrupt
:09:56. > :09:59.governments, some of that money is wasted. That is a fact. There is a
:10:00. > :10:03.decision to be made if we want to continue at this level or not. I
:10:04. > :10:07.think they may go for trying to redefine the rules, because if you
:10:08. > :10:11.had a bit more flexibility in the rules, you would be able to use it
:10:12. > :10:15.in a different way, have the military for example offering
:10:16. > :10:20.humanitarian assistance. There are ring fences within ring fences, it's
:10:21. > :10:24.very frustrating for government in terms of meeting the objectives. You
:10:25. > :10:29.can use the military or delivering humanitarian aid and it comes off
:10:30. > :10:35.the disappeared budget. We need to be very per about this. The rules
:10:36. > :10:38.are set why the OECD. You have to persuade 33 countries to change
:10:39. > :10:41.those rules and it won't happen. You speak from experience in the field
:10:42. > :10:47.and you have worked right inside number ten. Does it feel to you like
:10:48. > :10:51.it is tied? I've always been concerned is too high and I I'm
:10:52. > :10:54.concerned now because we are still running a deficit and because of
:10:55. > :10:59.Brexit, we have a Conservative government that is no longer
:11:00. > :11:02.committed to producing a surplus by 2020, which Cameron and Osborne
:11:03. > :11:06.were, because we don't know what economic perils lie ahead. I'm
:11:07. > :11:11.concerned it is too high. It would be popular with the country she cut
:11:12. > :11:13.this, at least in your party? We promised and is the law of the land
:11:14. > :11:20.that we would spend what is a relatively small amount of public
:11:21. > :11:23.expenditure on the poorest people in the world. That is in tune with the
:11:24. > :11:26.people of Britain. I would be surprised in a general election if
:11:27. > :11:33.we were to go back on our word, that we gave, that we would allocate 0.7%
:11:34. > :11:37.of GDP to helping the neediest. She has to be outward looking at this
:11:38. > :11:41.point. The bigger question, you have to roll everything together and say
:11:42. > :11:46.what this manifesto must not be is inward looking little England. --
:11:47. > :11:51.that will bring. There is a strong argument for retaining the 0.7%, but
:11:52. > :11:55.on any absolute financial basis, I'm afraid it should be looked at.
:11:56. > :12:01.Pushed around by tabloid newspaper bosses... Around the world Britain
:12:02. > :12:04.is lauded and deeply respected for the lives we are changing, the
:12:05. > :12:09.millions of lives we are saving as a result of this budget. Yet in
:12:10. > :12:15.Britain it receives very hostile treatment from elements within the
:12:16. > :12:21.press. It's never about... Of course it's about what you achieved. The
:12:22. > :12:26.way in which the coalition refashion development was to make sure we
:12:27. > :12:34.focused on results the money is achieving. Moving onto the grammar
:12:35. > :12:41.schools, such a who are about that, it comes down to 20. What does it
:12:42. > :12:44.say, she is rowing back? If you read the small print when she announces
:12:45. > :12:47.that was always going to be about 20 schools. She is treading very
:12:48. > :12:50.carefully. It is something she obviously feels very passionate
:12:51. > :12:56.about. She was a grammar school girl herself. She believes in this very
:12:57. > :13:00.small experiment, which is, I think, a signal to the Tory rank and file
:13:01. > :13:04.and people who would like to see more selective education. I think
:13:05. > :13:08.there is a much bigger issue, which is technical education. If she
:13:09. > :13:13.really cares about, she's talked a lot about it, I think we need to
:13:14. > :13:16.look much more closely at what we are investing in. Technical
:13:17. > :13:21.education and perhaps moving some of the money away from universities and
:13:22. > :13:24.towards vocation. There is a perception is a more old-fashioned
:13:25. > :13:27.conservatism she's going for here, not progressive so much but
:13:28. > :13:34.something that reminds people of the good things of the past. I don't
:13:35. > :13:39.agree with that. Nick's report mentioned 20 schools which I think
:13:40. > :13:42.is right. I remember in John Major's government after the 92 election, we
:13:43. > :13:47.had a policy of a grammar school in every town and none were built or
:13:48. > :13:50.opened at that time. Is 20 is a modest start but I think is the
:13:51. > :13:55.right way to implement this policy. What about triple lock? Have
:13:56. > :13:58.pensioners had their heyday? Will it get harder? I think triple lock is
:13:59. > :14:03.almost certain to go. The only question is what is replaced with.
:14:04. > :14:12.The easiest thing would be to go to double locks, which simply means you
:14:13. > :14:14.would index to inflation, which is a very safe thing to do politically
:14:15. > :14:17.because interest rates are low, inflation is low. Does that mean
:14:18. > :14:21.they end up with less money? Not in the short term. In the long-term,
:14:22. > :14:24.yes, absolutely. Older voters, the core of the Conservative Party,
:14:25. > :14:28.which is why there was a great deal of worry about this. We've basically
:14:29. > :14:32.seen younger people unable to get on the housing ladder, having pay for
:14:33. > :14:38.university and all sorts of debts... I think it's what Danny Kruger said
:14:39. > :14:42.in the report. It has had the impact we wanted it to her. Now
:14:43. > :14:47.intergenerational equity means we have to change it. And focused
:14:48. > :14:51.particularly, I think, on issues where the younger generation have
:14:52. > :14:52.lost out. Housing is probably the most significant one. Thank you
:14:53. > :14:55.both. Well, there is already a sense
:14:56. > :14:58.of deja vu with elements Yesterday, Theresa May warned
:14:59. > :15:01.about the prospect of a Labour government propped up
:15:02. > :15:04.by the Scottish National Party - a rerun of David Cameron's
:15:05. > :15:06.warning in 2015. Today, Nicola Sturgeon declared
:15:07. > :15:09.she would not rule out what she preferred to call
:15:10. > :15:12.a progressive alliance with Greens, Lib Dems and Labour in government -
:15:13. > :15:15.all the parties banding in together Let me say this very clear
:15:16. > :15:21.and straightforwardly... If the Parliamentary arithmetic lent
:15:22. > :15:25.itself to the SNP being part of a progressive alliance that
:15:26. > :15:28.would keep the Tories out of government, then the SNP
:15:29. > :15:31.would seek to be part of that, Well, one of the Tories' biggest
:15:32. > :15:42.beasts is their leader She was also one of the most vocal
:15:43. > :15:46.opponents to Brexit last year. I spoke to her just
:15:47. > :15:54.before we came on air. I asked her why she thought prounion
:15:55. > :15:58.voters were supportive of other parties should vote Conservative.
:15:59. > :16:02.The Scottish Conservatives always put the union first. That's what
:16:03. > :16:08.people know. That's why whether you are a tactical voter or a principal
:16:09. > :16:13.voter, your vote, if you don't want the SNP or to encourage their tunnel
:16:14. > :16:16.vision to break up Britain, is to vote for the Scottish Conservatives.
:16:17. > :16:20.You seem today Nicola Sturgeon saying she would happily get into
:16:21. > :16:25.bed with Jeremy Corbyn and prop him up and make him Prime Minister. I
:16:26. > :16:28.know why. Jeremy Corbyn doesn't care about the union. During the
:16:29. > :16:33.referendum campaign he didn't come to Scotland once. When he was lost
:16:34. > :16:39.in Scotland he said he was fine with there being another independence
:16:40. > :16:42.referendum. If you care about the United Kingdom in Scotland, you know
:16:43. > :16:49.your vote should be for the Scottish Conservatives. You are one of the
:16:50. > :16:54.most admired, vocal, visible faces of the Remain Campaign. It must be
:16:55. > :16:57.so hard for you to have to sell a message of hard Brexit to Scotland.
:16:58. > :17:01.If you look at what the Prime Minister said in her speech, a lot
:17:02. > :17:06.of the things she was talking about had been asked for from the Scottish
:17:07. > :17:11.Government. Things like workers' rights, things like closer
:17:12. > :17:16.co-operation on security. Things like free trade. I don't remember
:17:17. > :17:20.her threatening about co-operation on security if it didn't work.
:17:21. > :17:25.There's clearly a huge amount we put into that. One thing the Prime
:17:26. > :17:29.Minister did say, and I'm sure this got at Nicola Sturgeon's knows, that
:17:30. > :17:33.she wants the country to come out of Brexit more unified. I'm sure of the
:17:34. > :17:39.nationalist she doesn't want that let's also say this. In Scotland,
:17:40. > :17:43.whether they voted leave or remain, there is an understanding that the
:17:44. > :17:47.UK will be leaving the European Union. We want someone who can get
:17:48. > :17:52.the best deal for us because that will benefit people in Scotland as
:17:53. > :17:55.well as the rest of the UK. In this general election, the choice is to
:17:56. > :17:59.have which prime ministers sitting across the table from 27 other
:18:00. > :18:03.political leaders. Do you want Theresa May with a strong hand, a
:18:04. > :18:07.clear plan, or do you want Jeremy Corbyn, who the vast majority of his
:18:08. > :18:12.party don't think is fit to lead the Labour Party, never mind lead the
:18:13. > :18:16.country. The markets seem to conclude yesterday's announcement
:18:17. > :18:21.would herald a softer Brexit. Do you think that's what it's about? I'm
:18:22. > :18:24.not sure the markets are the best arbiter. But I believe is that a
:18:25. > :18:28.Prime Minister with a stronger majority in the House of Commons has
:18:29. > :18:33.the freedom of movement to be able to make decisions that benefited the
:18:34. > :18:36.whole country. You say freedom of movement. Amber Rudd talked about
:18:37. > :18:41.more compromise with the EU as a result of a larger majority, is that
:18:42. > :18:44.what this is about? I think it gives the prime ministers space to make
:18:45. > :18:48.long-term decisions to the benefit of the whole country. I think it
:18:49. > :18:52.also means it's not having one or two small caucuses, however
:18:53. > :18:57.organised they are in the House of Commons, being able to derail the
:18:58. > :19:01.process, because the majority is so slim. I would encourage people at
:19:02. > :19:05.home who want to give the Prime Minister every latitude to be able
:19:06. > :19:09.to be strong in those negotiations, to sit across from 27 other
:19:10. > :19:13.countries, to fight Britain's Corner, to give her the strength she
:19:14. > :19:17.needs. Otherwise it's Jeremy Corbyn who will be sitting there and I
:19:18. > :19:25.wouldn't trust him to run a bath. There is quite a big debate going on
:19:26. > :19:29.about certain Tory policies, such as the commitment of 0.7% to eight.
:19:30. > :19:37.Does that need to be guaranteed? I am committed to the target. I think
:19:38. > :19:43.international aid not only benefits the countries that receive it but we
:19:44. > :19:50.benefit too. The Prime Minister gave her commitment to that not three
:19:51. > :19:56.weeks ago. There is talk about bundling it with trade, maybe
:19:57. > :20:00.defence. Would that work? I want to make sure we did the best work
:20:01. > :20:06.abroad. I think we have a commitment to 0.7% in aid. I think it takes
:20:07. > :20:16.moral courage to be one of the leading countries that espouses
:20:17. > :20:20.that. Moral cowardice to dilate that presumably? They would have to be a
:20:21. > :20:24.legal process. We know it was enshrined in law at the Parliament.
:20:25. > :20:28.There are a lot of people across the political spectrum who show that
:20:29. > :20:31.particularly at this time, as we are leaving the European Union, we want
:20:32. > :20:34.to show we are good global citizens, but we aren't inward looking, we
:20:35. > :20:38.aren't pulling up the drawbridge, we are getting out there into the
:20:39. > :20:42.world. I think maintaining that commitment shows our commitment to
:20:43. > :20:47.the rest of the world. The SNP were told now isn't the time when they
:20:48. > :20:52.asked for a second referendum. Talk us through when the time is, then.
:20:53. > :20:56.The Prime Minister has put this on two points of principle. You cannot
:20:57. > :20:59.revisit this question about the constitutional future of Scotland
:21:00. > :21:04.when people in Scotland don't know what Brexit is going to look like.
:21:05. > :21:08.When with that be? You've got to be able to see what the Brexit deal is
:21:09. > :21:11.that's coming out of Brussels brought back to the UK, and also the
:21:12. > :21:17.attendant power was passed on from there. Does that mean in two years?
:21:18. > :21:21.I'm trying to get a sense of how one that would be. The second principle
:21:22. > :21:29.is important too and very important for the rest of the UK audience.
:21:30. > :21:34.People from the SNP are espousing a nationalist vision. The second thing
:21:35. > :21:37.is that people of Scotland don't want to revisit this question.
:21:38. > :21:42.They've been asked time and time again, you can't drag people back to
:21:43. > :21:47.a decision they have already made. She said now isn't the time and you
:21:48. > :21:54.said we need the Brexit negotiations to take place. If that process two
:21:55. > :21:59.years, is it until 2019, is it the years after that? I'm trying to work
:22:00. > :22:03.out when it would be. It's when we see what the Brexit deal looks like
:22:04. > :22:07.and how those attendant powers, some of which will go to the Welsh
:22:08. > :22:10.assembly, to Northern Ireland and Scotland... So it would be crazy to
:22:11. > :22:14.rule it out for the whole Parliament? It's not been pinned to
:22:15. > :22:18.a date. Nicola Sturgeon wants to pin it to a date because she is
:22:19. > :22:21.desperate to push this through on a political issue. The Prime Minister
:22:22. > :22:24.is talking about a point of principle. The people of Scotland
:22:25. > :22:28.have to know what they are being asked to vote on. They've got to
:22:29. > :22:32.want to be dragged back to what was a very divisive vote in Scotland.
:22:33. > :22:36.The people of Scotland don't want to be dragged back there. They were
:22:37. > :22:37.promised that it would last for a generation and now Nicola Sturgeon
:22:38. > :22:40.is going back on that. Thank you. The Brexit vote, we know, has thrown
:22:41. > :22:43.party loyalties wide open, and one of the hardest tasks
:22:44. > :22:45.for the electorate this time round will be working out
:22:46. > :22:47.which allegiance comes first. Many Labour heartlands of the North
:22:48. > :22:50.emerged as Brexit strongholds. So does that mean they will swing
:22:51. > :22:53.behind the Tories this time around? David Grossman is in
:22:54. > :23:05.Manchester to ask them. Seats that were once known as simply
:23:06. > :23:07.Labour or Conservative, now have an extra, and who knows,
:23:08. > :23:10.perhaps overriding designation. Whether they voted
:23:11. > :23:16.for Brexit or not. This creates a challenge
:23:17. > :23:21.for all the parties, no doubt. Labour's problem is that it has
:23:22. > :23:29.to try to hang on to seats like this, Manchester Withington,
:23:30. > :23:31.where voters opted overwhelmingly At the same time as trying to pick
:23:32. > :23:39.up votes in places like this, Pendle in Lancashire,
:23:40. > :23:40.where the electorate Because a message that plays well
:23:41. > :23:46.in a place like this is likely to turn voters off
:23:47. > :23:51.in places like this. IN UNISON: It's almost as if Labour
:23:52. > :23:57.needs to be two parties. In our first past the post electoral
:23:58. > :24:01.system, in order to win an electoral majority they have to put together
:24:02. > :24:04.a coalition that includes older, socially conservative
:24:05. > :24:07.blue-collar voters. The kind of voters who voted
:24:08. > :24:10.for Brexit, who are not very With younger, ethnically diverse,
:24:11. > :24:15.socially liberal university graduates, the so-called
:24:16. > :24:18.metropolitan liberal elite, who dominate in places
:24:19. > :24:20.like London and Manchester, where Labour do very well,
:24:21. > :24:22.and dominate the Labour They need both of
:24:23. > :24:31.those groups to win. And the problem is, what those two
:24:32. > :24:34.groups want are now polar opposites. If we look at the constituencies
:24:35. > :24:37.who voted either most strongly for Brexit or against Brexit,
:24:38. > :24:40.projections suggest that setting Scotland side,
:24:41. > :24:43.16 of the top 20 most remain voting While 12 of the top 20
:24:44. > :24:46.most leave voting seats In Manchester Withington,
:24:47. > :24:52.remain voters like Ben and Jess say they feel they have little choice
:24:53. > :24:56.in this election. They don't want to vote
:24:57. > :24:58.Lib Dem, they say, just Is Jeremy Corbyn
:24:59. > :25:06.a potential Prime Minister? It's not anything personal
:25:07. > :25:11.against him, I quite like what he stands
:25:12. > :25:13.for and his values. But I think his conduct
:25:14. > :25:16.through Brexit is disappointing. He never showed any
:25:17. > :25:20.great leadership. Having personal values is one thing,
:25:21. > :25:23.but you've got to show that you are capable of delivering
:25:24. > :25:26.something beneficial for people as a result of those,
:25:27. > :25:29.and I'm not really convinced he's It's a shame, because I think
:25:30. > :25:34.locally there's a lot But, on a national scale,
:25:35. > :25:45.I think it just looks About 35 miles north of Manchester
:25:46. > :25:55.is the seat of Pendle, currently Conservative
:25:56. > :25:59.but previously Labour, and one of the seats the party
:26:00. > :26:02.has to win if it wants Amongst its mainly Brexit voting
:26:03. > :26:13.residents, I could find little enthusiasm for the current Labour
:26:14. > :26:14.Party. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn has
:26:15. > :26:17.anything to say that will attract traditional Labour voters
:26:18. > :26:19.who voted for Brexit? Lots of voters round
:26:20. > :26:21.here voted for Brexit. I don't think Jeremy Corbyn
:26:22. > :26:26.will, actually, no. I don't think his is a strong
:26:27. > :26:30.enough leadership... I just feel that there's a lot
:26:31. > :26:36.of disillusionment at the moment in the Labour Party,
:26:37. > :26:38.even in the strongholds Perhaps maybe that people
:26:39. > :26:50.are sick of the same, the same, the same,
:26:51. > :26:53.but at the moment we don't feel And obviously, a non-Tory area,
:26:54. > :27:10.as we are, we ain't going to vote for those, but what else have we got
:27:11. > :27:13.in front of us? In a sense, the seeds of this
:27:14. > :27:16.problem were sown by Tony Blair. In his early days as Labour leader,
:27:17. > :27:19.he boasted in an interview with me about how he was changing his party,
:27:20. > :27:22.even in traditional Labour areas The critical thing that has
:27:23. > :27:26.happened is that the whole structure and culture
:27:27. > :27:28.of the party has changed. You look at these delegates that
:27:29. > :27:30.are coming, indeed from places like the north-west,
:27:31. > :27:32.you look at these delegates, they're different, they're young,
:27:33. > :27:35.they're go ahead, they've got This is not the Labour Party
:27:36. > :27:38.living in the past, this is the Labour Party
:27:39. > :27:40.addressing the future. The Blair gamble back in the 1990s
:27:41. > :27:43.was we can move Labour aggressively to the centre ground,
:27:44. > :27:45.focus on the middle-class voter and put together a coalition of
:27:46. > :27:48.partisan tribal traditional Labour voters and middle-class
:27:49. > :27:49.swing voters who just want good management,
:27:50. > :27:52.good government, because the first group, the partisan tribal
:27:53. > :27:55.Labour voters haven't got anywhere else to go, so we can hold
:27:56. > :27:58.onto them, even if we don't particularly cater to what they're
:27:59. > :28:02.asking for, don't particularly give That's the bill that's come due now,
:28:03. > :28:08.because now the Labour Party is turning round to these voters
:28:09. > :28:10.and saying, you need to stay loyal with us
:28:11. > :28:12.in these difficult times, and they're saying,
:28:13. > :28:15.well, why should we? Labour is trying hard to unite
:28:16. > :28:20.its disparate tribes by focusing on what they mostly agree
:28:21. > :28:22.on: on the economy, But since Theresa May
:28:23. > :28:26.is working equally hard to try to define this election as about
:28:27. > :28:29.Brexit and about leadership, Labour is not the only party having
:28:30. > :28:39.to walk a Brexit tightrope. Lib Dems are looking for a revival
:28:40. > :28:41.fuelled by Remainers. But many of their former
:28:42. > :28:43.heartlands were solidly Will they welcome back
:28:44. > :28:47.the Yellow Ribbon? James Clayton went to test
:28:48. > :28:54.the waters of the South West. Tranquil, historic, generally
:28:55. > :29:07.all-round lovely Bath. The setting of a Lib
:29:08. > :29:14.Dem massacre in 2015. What happened here shocked even
:29:15. > :29:17.the most pessimistic of Lib Dems. They lost nearly 1-in-2
:29:18. > :29:19.of their voters here, letting It was a result that
:29:20. > :29:31.was mirrored in much of the south-west,
:29:32. > :29:32.but now - revenge. Theresa May's announcement yesterday
:29:33. > :29:35.is a chance for the Lib Dems to retake what they believe
:29:36. > :29:38.is their territory. Shortly after Theresa May's
:29:39. > :29:40.announcement, I went They claim to have already had
:29:41. > :29:46.23 new members since Fantastic, I'll give you a call
:29:47. > :29:50.in the next couple of days. That was someone who is
:29:51. > :29:55.looking to get involved Just a spontaneous phone call,
:29:56. > :30:02.which we've been fielding all day. To be fair, when you said you've
:30:03. > :30:08.been getting lots of phone calls, we've been here for three or four
:30:09. > :30:11.minutes, and you've just got another This is Operation Phoenix,
:30:12. > :30:18.and these are its foot soldiers. What's your big strategy for winning
:30:19. > :30:21.this election, or can you not say? The whole Brexit issue is getting
:30:22. > :30:31.people politically motivated, that weren't previously
:30:32. > :30:35.in political parties. Until six months ago,
:30:36. > :30:40.I hadn't joined a political And it was Theresa May's speech
:30:41. > :30:44.about citizens of the world being citizens of nowhere that
:30:45. > :30:47.prompted me to go out that very day This is a fantastic
:30:48. > :30:51.chance for the Lib Dems, because the Lib Dems are one
:30:52. > :30:54.of the few parties who are actually And there are so many
:30:55. > :30:57.people now who are leaving the parties because they are
:30:58. > :30:59.so depressed, demoralised. Depressed and demoralised maybe,
:31:00. > :31:05.but in some areas Brexit gives Liberal Democrats reckon they've got
:31:06. > :31:16.a pretty good chance of taking south-western seats,
:31:17. > :31:18.like this one here in Bath. One of the reasons for
:31:19. > :31:20.that is because Bath voted Now the problem with that, is that
:31:21. > :31:31.most of the south-western seats they want to take off
:31:32. > :31:34.the Tories, they voted out. Just down the road is
:31:35. > :31:38.the constituency of Wells. It's one of a glut of more
:31:39. > :31:42.traditional rural seats that the Liberal Democrats lost
:31:43. > :31:46.to the Conservatives in 2015, and it poses a problem
:31:47. > :31:50.for Operation Phoenix. If you look at the referendum
:31:51. > :31:53.result, 69% of people in Bath voted to remain,
:31:54. > :31:57.but unfortunately for the Lib Dems, that's not replicated
:31:58. > :32:00.across the south-west. Places like Taunton Deane,
:32:01. > :32:05.Yeovil and here in Wells voted out. So, if the Liberal Democrats think
:32:06. > :32:10.they can use this election as a second referendum on Brexit,
:32:11. > :32:12.the south-west might not be So you've never voted
:32:13. > :32:17.Conservative before? I was Liberal Democrat,
:32:18. > :32:23.and I'm only voting now because of the situation we are in,
:32:24. > :32:27.to make sure she gets in and gets through with Brexit,
:32:28. > :32:29.because I voted for Brexit. So you voted Liberal
:32:30. > :32:30.Democrat in 2015? And now you're going to vote
:32:31. > :32:35.Conservative in 2017? I voted Conservative
:32:36. > :32:41.at the last election, but I was Lib Dem before that,
:32:42. > :32:49.and I object to being told that I'm an idiot and I don't
:32:50. > :32:52.know my own mind, and I cannot understand an argument
:32:53. > :32:55.one way or the other. The EU referendum has
:32:56. > :32:58.reset the political It may well be that their best
:32:59. > :33:09.chance of gains are in the more affluent areas of southern England,
:33:10. > :33:11.which includes Bath, rather than the rump
:33:12. > :33:13.of Eurosceptic south-west. Back in Bath, I caught up
:33:14. > :33:16.with the president of the local There's only one party who says
:33:17. > :33:30.they are going to reverse that, and that's the Liberal Democrats,
:33:31. > :33:34.not the Conservative Party. Well, that's quite
:33:35. > :33:37.a staggering thought. I don't know how you
:33:38. > :33:41.reverse Article 50. I don't think there's
:33:42. > :33:43.an Article 51a. Have you spoken to people
:33:44. > :33:46.who voted Remain? A lot of them don't really care
:33:47. > :33:48.about the intricacies, they just want to vote for a party
:33:49. > :33:52.that reflects their views on Europe. They may want that, but it's no
:33:53. > :34:00.longer on the table. By calling this election,
:34:01. > :34:06.Theresa May senses a countrywide opportunity to take seats off Labour
:34:07. > :34:09.and win a sizeable majority. But that calculation only
:34:10. > :34:11.works if she can hold Bath may well be the yardstick
:34:12. > :34:19.by which the PM's decision to go Former Lib Dem leader
:34:20. > :34:36.and Deputy Prime Minister Nick That is the tricky bit, isn't it,
:34:37. > :34:42.Nick Clegg? The woman in that piece we just heard saying loved Brexit,
:34:43. > :34:45.might have been Lib Dems, now if they hear you talking about the EU,
:34:46. > :34:49.campaigning on that at all, they will think they are not your people
:34:50. > :34:53.any more? We will see in the next seven weeks. The thing about Brexit,
:34:54. > :34:58.it's not just really about whether you voted this way or that way last
:34:59. > :35:02.June. It's become a kind of vortex, the prism through which everything
:35:03. > :35:04.else is now refracted in British politics. I will give you an
:35:05. > :35:28.example, those two ladies, I don't know the modestly but I expect
:35:29. > :35:30.I'll be pretty concerned that this Conservative government there is a
:35:31. > :35:33.funding crisis in the NHS, terrible crisis in social care that is not
:35:34. > :35:35.being addressed and huge cuts to the school system. I think one of the
:35:36. > :35:38.things we will be explaining to them is, whatever you voted in the Brexit
:35:39. > :35:40.referendum, having such a Brexit obsessed government means they are
:35:41. > :35:42.not doing their day job, not providing the decent public services
:35:43. > :35:45.people want. That's part of the problem. In terms of the way you
:35:46. > :35:47.campaign, you will not be banging on about Europe? You won't actually
:35:48. > :35:50.mention Europe? I talk about it at the drop of a hat and I will
:35:51. > :35:53.continue to. Even in the south-west? You can't hide from people the facts
:35:54. > :35:57.this general election has been triggered by the Prime Minister the
:35:58. > :36:03.cynical opportunistic reasons, to capitalise on the weakness of her
:36:04. > :36:07.opponent, Jeremy Gubin, and to get an election in before the bad news
:36:08. > :36:10.of Brexit comes. -- Jeremy Corbyn. Whatever people choose to talk
:36:11. > :36:13.about, Brexit will be the dominant theme. You can't hide away from
:36:14. > :36:17.that. But the idea you can't talk about the way in which Brexit,
:36:18. > :36:22.ironically enough, means the oxygen is being sucked away from other
:36:23. > :36:25.things that people passionately care about, schools, hospitals, social
:36:26. > :36:37.care... Will be things are linked and should be discussed. Do you
:36:38. > :36:40.think you can repair the damage done to you all you that you did yourself
:36:41. > :36:42.last time round? Don't ask me, I'm not objective. I think it's a
:36:43. > :36:45.nonsense is this idea that the coalition is the ball and chain...
:36:46. > :36:47.Countless people who now say... I'm not talking about the coalition but
:36:48. > :36:51.the fact you lost a lot of seats, did you think you can win them back?
:36:52. > :36:54.We can't do much worse than we did at the last election! Can you double
:36:55. > :37:01.it? I'm not a soothsayer... You don't have to be. We will do far
:37:02. > :37:05.better than last time. I suspect, it's just an instant, we will do
:37:06. > :37:11.better than people expect for right now. Why? Because there is a great
:37:12. > :37:17.big gap in this election campaign. Give us a ballpark, 13, 14? It's not
:37:18. > :37:24.game of bingo. You Applebee 's MPs, or waiting in the wings. -- you have
:37:25. > :37:27.all these MPs. I don't think it'll be interesting to your viewers what
:37:28. > :37:32.number I plucked out of thin air. That is not issue. What are your
:37:33. > :37:36.expectations Montero that we will do clearly much better than we did last
:37:37. > :37:40.time, we can't do much worse. More than that, we will hopefully with a
:37:41. > :37:48.sizeable Parliamentary party, provide the effective... Lead the
:37:49. > :37:53.opposition against this damaging had Brexit. Which Theresa May wants to
:37:54. > :37:57.garner a landslide majority. If it sizeable enough, could it go into
:37:58. > :38:03.government again? Would you work with Labour? There is absolutely no
:38:04. > :38:05.realistic prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. Are you
:38:06. > :38:12.ruling out? It's just not going to happen. Can I surprise you? Let me
:38:13. > :38:15.be very candid with you. I think we should be very plain speaking in
:38:16. > :38:19.this campaign, because I think most people know what's going to happen
:38:20. > :38:23.at the end of this process. Theresa May will be Prime Minister on June
:38:24. > :38:27.nine. I think most people realise there is almost a foregone
:38:28. > :38:30.conclusion that conservatives will remain the party of government. The
:38:31. > :38:34.question then becomes, what kind of majority they have, what kind of
:38:35. > :38:40.mandate to Jake Lehmann what do they do for the next five years? They
:38:41. > :38:45.seem to expect opposition should be extinguished and they can oppose...
:38:46. > :38:52.And therefore, back to your question, when I was a leader in
:38:53. > :38:55.2010, the key test for the Liberal Democrats was how could we step up
:38:56. > :39:00.to the plate to provide responsible government? That might happen again.
:39:01. > :39:05.No. It's how we provide effective opposition. It would not be
:39:06. > :39:10.inconceivable to work with the Conservatives? No way, get Tim on
:39:11. > :39:15.the programme and asking, he's the leader. There is no way the Liberal
:39:16. > :39:19.Democrats are going to install Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of this
:39:20. > :39:24.country nor are we going to sustain Theresa May in power to inflict on
:39:25. > :39:28.the a self harming, economically speaking, self harming had Brexit
:39:29. > :39:33.that nobody voted for last year. We don't have much time. Opposition
:39:34. > :39:36.is not something to be dismissed. Much though I enjoyed my time in
:39:37. > :39:40.government and felt we did a good job, I value, that's one of the
:39:41. > :39:43.reasons I'm standing as a candidate, I value an effective opposition in a
:39:44. > :39:48.healthy democracy. We don't have that at the moment because Labour
:39:49. > :39:57.has collapsed. This is about Tim Farron. He got himself into some hot
:39:58. > :40:00.water defining where liberal beliefs and Christian beliefs coincide. Yes,
:40:01. > :40:05.he said homosexuality is not a sin, but is he... Is he allowed to be a
:40:06. > :40:09.Christian thinker and a liberal? At the moment it seems like he's been
:40:10. > :40:13.put on the spot and being told to choose between his Christian
:40:14. > :40:18.beliefs, what he thinks of homosexuality, in the privacy of his
:40:19. > :40:22.mind, and his position as the Lib Dem leader? I think you've said it.
:40:23. > :40:27.It's the privacy of his faith, which he should be able to hold and hold
:40:28. > :40:34.dearly, in the private way that many people hold faith to themselves, or
:40:35. > :40:38.indeed don't at all. What he does as a legislator and politician, that is
:40:39. > :40:44.legitimate... He wasn't really able to say that. He had to come out
:40:45. > :40:47.today and say... I'm just saying to you my view on politicians and their
:40:48. > :40:50.faith and how it affects their public duties, you should judge them
:40:51. > :40:56.not by what their private faith is but what their public actions. As
:40:57. > :41:02.you know you voted time and time again, alongside all other Liberal
:41:03. > :41:06.Democrats, in of anti-discrimination measures, equal marriage. Judging by
:41:07. > :41:10.his actions as an MP, not by the somewhat sort of sanctimonious
:41:11. > :41:15.judgments about his own private faith. His own private faith is his.
:41:16. > :41:18.Let him have that, let him have that freedom and privacy of faith but
:41:19. > :41:24.also judging by his actions as a legislator, which are impeccably
:41:25. > :41:28.liberal ones. Parting thought for George Osborne, as he steps down,
:41:29. > :41:34.the man who masterminded your decapitation? Good luck to him. I
:41:35. > :41:40.think it's quite telling, however much I staunchly disagreed with
:41:41. > :41:44.George Osborne over many years, he is a particular conservative, a
:41:45. > :41:48.metropolitan turn of mind, he believes in globalisation, he
:41:49. > :41:53.believes in a cosmopolitan view of the world. If the Conservative Party
:41:54. > :41:57.can't retake the ball like that, whatever you think, like or dislike
:41:58. > :42:00.George Osborne, his a formidable figure in the Conservative Party, if
:42:01. > :42:04.they can't keep people like that it becomes more narrow and sect like
:42:05. > :42:10.and that won't serve the Conservative Party well in the long
:42:11. > :42:16.run. Nick Clegg, thank you. That is all we have time for tonight. Hirst
:42:17. > :42:17.is back tomorrow. Good night. -- Kirsty is back tomorrow.
:42:18. > :42:30.Hello. Let's see what the weather has in store for the rest of the
:42:31. > :42:31.week. If anything, turning a little warmer across southern