:00:00. > :00:11.The centre of the city has been evacuated.
:00:12. > :00:14.With an election just three days away, what impact will this
:00:15. > :00:20.The next Prime Minister of the UK, Jeremy Corbyn.
:00:21. > :00:25.He's defied the odds before - can he do it again?
:00:26. > :00:27.It's the establishment versus the people.
:00:28. > :00:34.It's our historic duty to make sure the people prevail.
:00:35. > :00:36.We'll ask the man running Labour's election campaign
:00:37. > :00:44.And what about the Conservatives - just how prepared are they?
:00:45. > :00:47.We've found evidence that the Tories don't even have candidates lined up
:00:48. > :00:52.for some of their most winnable target seats.
:00:53. > :00:57.Also tonight, the other May that could decide June.
:00:58. > :01:02.She might not act on it, but she'll listen.
:01:03. > :01:03.What part does Theresa's husband Philip play
:01:04. > :01:20.A big day for Labour today as Jeremy Corbyn
:01:21. > :01:26.We'll be speaking to the man masterminding his campaign shortly.
:01:27. > :01:28.But we begin this evening with a developing story in Paris,
:01:29. > :01:31.which has once again become the focus of a terror attack
:01:32. > :01:35.just three days before the country heads to the polls.
:01:36. > :01:37.A major police operation is ongoing tonight after a shooting
:01:38. > :01:42.The target this time around, police officers themselves.
:01:43. > :01:45.One shot dead, two others seriously wounded.
:01:46. > :01:51.Christian Fraser is close to the scene and we can go to him now.
:01:52. > :02:01.Just talk us through what you're seeing and what happening there now.
:02:02. > :02:11.We were down on the pavement and the top of Grand Armee. We have the cars
:02:12. > :02:15.going around the Arc de Triomphe. It is deserted. Armed police are on the
:02:16. > :02:19.pavements and I'd imagine that many of the people in the cafes, on the
:02:20. > :02:26.terraces and in the hotels of that part of the street earlier this
:02:27. > :02:30.evening are still in lockdown. While we were here broadcasting, around
:02:31. > :02:35.9pm local time we started to feel that there was something happening.
:02:36. > :02:40.One or two police cars were tearing down Grand Armee and then they
:02:41. > :02:45.started coming from all directions, clearly the message had gone out on
:02:46. > :02:49.the police radios that officers were needed. It got so silly at one point
:02:50. > :02:52.that there were police cars overtaking each other, they were so
:02:53. > :02:59.desperate to get there, nearly knocking down pedestrians here. Then
:03:00. > :03:02.word went out that shots had been fired and obviously the panic
:03:03. > :03:08.started to break out, so young people who were next to the eternal
:03:09. > :03:12.flame and looking at the Arc de Triomphe were running in all
:03:13. > :03:16.directions and a very jumpy police force because they didn't really no
:03:17. > :03:23.what they were dealing with. This has happened very quickly. There is
:03:24. > :03:27.an arrest warrant for the suspect. What stage is the investigation at?
:03:28. > :03:31.The police are telling us that they are not looking for anyone in this
:03:32. > :03:36.part of Paris but there is an operation going on in eastern Paris
:03:37. > :03:39.near the parliament. They have the identity of the attacker and he is
:03:40. > :03:46.known to the counterintelligence service here in France. Reuters are
:03:47. > :03:49.reporting that there is a document, an arrest warrant for a man who came
:03:50. > :03:53.into the country from Belgium and they are looking for this
:03:54. > :03:58.accomplice. France is on a state of emergency which has been extended
:03:59. > :04:06.for a fifth time until July, since the Algerian War. It will have
:04:07. > :04:16.implications, you would think, for the election which is three days
:04:17. > :04:21.away. Francois Fillon... We're losing you, I'm so sorry, I think
:04:22. > :04:23.the signal has been badly scrambled. Understandable because there's quite
:04:24. > :04:26.a big police presence and we don't know what's going on. But thanks for
:04:27. > :04:30.joining us. Anne-Elisabeth Moutet is a French
:04:31. > :04:32.journalist who lives a short distance from the scene
:04:33. > :04:40.of the attack. Fingers crossed for this signal.
:04:41. > :04:47.Thank you for joining us. It's pretty hard not to see this as a
:04:48. > :04:54.provocation of some sort, just three days before the country goes to the
:04:55. > :04:58.polls, isn't it? It's very tempting because it disrupts the democratic
:04:59. > :05:04.process in Western countries and especially a western country which,
:05:05. > :05:11.to give it its due, Francois Hollande has put it at the forefront
:05:12. > :05:16.of fighting Islamic terrorism. The country was behind him on this. You
:05:17. > :05:19.have four main candidates, 11th candidates in total, four have a
:05:20. > :05:24.chance of being in the run-off in two weeks' time and of them, two
:05:25. > :05:31.have put the emphasis on the dangers of Islamic terrorism, Marine Le Pen
:05:32. > :05:34.and also Francois Fillon. This may be the time when Francois Fillon
:05:35. > :05:38.manages to inch his way back into being in the run-off. It's
:05:39. > :05:42.interesting because I think Emmanuel Macron said earlier tonight that,
:05:43. > :05:47.the candidate of the left, this will be a threat to our daily life for
:05:48. > :05:51.years to come. I guess that's quite a gamble, isn't it, to tell people
:05:52. > :05:57.that they will have to carry on living with this? He is an
:05:58. > :06:04.intellectual, a very bright technocrat, somebody who has never
:06:05. > :06:08.run for election and he has been a young figure. It's difficult to say
:06:09. > :06:18.that he is unknown because he was the economy Minister for two years
:06:19. > :06:23.and he has run his campaign on enthusiast and, which is probably
:06:24. > :06:28.what the country needs. But when it comes to the heavy things like
:06:29. > :06:33.terrorism I'm not sure he has entirely got the atmosphere of the
:06:34. > :06:36.country right on this one. It completely contrasts with what
:06:37. > :06:41.Marine Le Pen has been saying. In concrete terms, when she talks about
:06:42. > :06:48.terrorism, terrorist attacks, what does she intends to do to stop them?
:06:49. > :06:58.Well, she certainly once a version of Frexit, meaning the Borders would
:06:59. > :07:06.close, she would like a moratorium on immigration into France and some
:07:07. > :07:09.measures she would take in the early months of her presidency. This
:07:10. > :07:14.reminds you of Donald Trump, who said he had ten measures that he
:07:15. > :07:17.would sign straightaway. The idea that she is a different politician
:07:18. > :07:22.and that she's going to come up with campaign promises and say that she's
:07:23. > :07:28.going to make them operated, even though this may not happen, it is a
:07:29. > :07:30.good of her campaign. She has already said on television that she
:07:31. > :07:37.was vindicated, that she was right all along. What she can do is going
:07:38. > :07:41.to be interesting because we already have a state of emergency in the
:07:42. > :07:47.country. So parliament voted that through and the population is
:07:48. > :07:52.broadly behind Parliament on this. It was a left-wing government that
:07:53. > :07:55.voted it in. OK, thank you very much indeed.
:07:56. > :07:59.Jeremy Corbyn is perhaps never happier than back in campaign mode.
:08:00. > :08:05.His lines today reminded his legion of supporters why they liked him:
:08:06. > :08:06.a leader unafraid to be anti-establishment,
:08:07. > :08:10.the feathers of the rich or upsetting the elites.
:08:11. > :08:12.They came to hear him in person, some said
:08:13. > :08:15.to escape the prism of a media they believe is out to get him.
:08:16. > :08:20.And whilst the polls suggest he doesn't stand a change
:08:21. > :08:22.And whilst the polls suggest he doesn't stand a chance
:08:23. > :08:24.of winning next month, Corbyn dismissed popular wisdom,
:08:25. > :08:26.reminding us that he's been underestimated not once,
:08:27. > :08:31.We thought we'd start tonight with a meaty chunk
:08:32. > :08:34.of Corbyn's message today at his campaign launch.
:08:35. > :08:36.The dividing lines in this election could not be
:08:37. > :08:47.It's the Conservatives, the party of privilege and the richest,
:08:48. > :08:58.The Labour Party that is standing up for working
:08:59. > :09:06.It's the establishment versus the people.
:09:07. > :09:13.It's our historic duty to make sure the people prevail.
:09:14. > :09:20.When we win, it is the people, not the powerful, who win.
:09:21. > :09:25.The nurse, the teacher, the small trader, the carer,
:09:26. > :09:27.the builder, the office worker, the student, the carer
:09:28. > :09:32.So there's the big picture rhetoric, but what can we expect
:09:33. > :09:38.Our policy editor Chris Cook has been assessing what we know so far
:09:39. > :09:42.of what a Corbyn government would do.
:09:43. > :09:45.Maldistribution of wealth in this country is something that's got
:09:46. > :09:52.Jeremy Corbyn rallies aren't what they used to be.
:09:53. > :09:55.After decades at the margins of his party, the long-serving
:09:56. > :10:04.And the manifesto that emerges in the next few weeks
:10:05. > :10:10.will crystallise what it means for Labour to be led from its left.
:10:11. > :10:14.We will no longer allow those at the top to leech off those
:10:15. > :10:18.who bust their guts on zero hours contracts, or those forced to make
:10:19. > :10:21.sacrifices to pay their mortgage or to pay their rent.
:10:22. > :10:24.Instead of the country's wealth being hidden in tax havens,
:10:25. > :10:28.we will put it in the hands of the people of Britain.
:10:29. > :10:31.We can say some things about what's likely to be in Labour's manifesto.
:10:32. > :10:34.For example, the party's already announced that it wants free school
:10:35. > :10:37.meals for all children in primary schools.
:10:38. > :10:39.We can also make some educated guesses.
:10:40. > :10:41.The party's campaigned recently on restoring grants for students
:10:42. > :10:50.There are also tax rises that they have highlighted.
:10:51. > :10:53.They're committed to reversing a recent cut in inheritance tax,
:10:54. > :10:55.and they talk a lot about raising corporation tax, in particular
:10:56. > :11:03.More importantly, though, we can also talk about Labour's view
:11:04. > :11:08.What they have said in very broad terms is that they are not
:11:09. > :11:10.necessarily looking for budget balance, they are looking for what
:11:11. > :11:13.is called current budget balance, which is that they are willing
:11:14. > :11:16.That would mean they could be spending in the medium-term
:11:17. > :11:20.?30-40 billion a year more than the Conservatives,
:11:21. > :11:23.so they're looking at a looser fiscal policy, as you'd expect,
:11:24. > :11:29.Beyond that, though, is less clear, especially as snap
:11:30. > :11:34.First, the party may just not have the time
:11:35. > :11:40.So what we are expecting here is more of a direction of travel.
:11:41. > :11:42.Yes, there will be some detailed policies in areas
:11:43. > :11:46.For example free school meals for all kids funded by VAT
:11:47. > :11:49.But you won't be expecting lots and lots of details
:11:50. > :11:54.You definitely can't do that in the next few weeks
:11:55. > :11:58.There will be things, I'm sure, that we will want to put
:11:59. > :12:01.into the manifesto that we won't be able to put it just yet,
:12:02. > :12:03.so the manifesto may be a rolling manifesto,
:12:04. > :12:10.in that there will be other things coming in at the end.
:12:11. > :12:21.Labour's sums have assumed a 2020 handover, not 2017.
:12:22. > :12:23.Had we had an election in 2020 on current plans,
:12:24. > :12:25.the deficit would have been significantly smaller
:12:26. > :12:31.At the moment, it's still well in excess of ?50 billion.
:12:32. > :12:36.So if the Labour Party is looking, if it is looking to get
:12:37. > :12:39.a current budget balance, a deficit of maybe 30 billion or so,
:12:40. > :12:43.that means there is still some austerity to go through in order
:12:44. > :12:50.There will need to be some tax rises or spending cuts
:12:51. > :12:55.as a fraction of national income to achieve that target.
:12:56. > :12:57.That means some Corbyn ideas with big fiscal
:12:58. > :12:59.implications might need delays, tweaks or rethinks.
:13:00. > :13:02.Keep an eye on the abolition of university tuition
:13:03. > :13:07.fees, or the seeding of a public infrastructure bank.
:13:08. > :13:10.Labour's processes also cause issues for Mr Corbyn.
:13:11. > :13:13.The third complication is how his party makes policy.
:13:14. > :13:16.It has to go through party structures.
:13:17. > :13:20.The Labour Party isn't about one person.
:13:21. > :13:24.The Labour Party is a team of people all working together.
:13:25. > :13:31.It's not about one MP, and it's not about one leader.
:13:32. > :13:34.Mr Corbyn is strongly against nuclear weapons,
:13:35. > :13:39.but Labour's leader doesn't control its manifesto on their own.
:13:40. > :13:42.And despite attempts, when it comes to Trident,
:13:43. > :13:47.I'm delighted to say that Labour is fully in favour
:13:48. > :13:54.In fact, one of the advantages of the big toing and froing
:13:55. > :13:57.that we have had in recent years on this is that we arrived
:13:58. > :14:03.I tell you this, I wouldn't be sorry if it was a 60% tax
:14:04. > :14:07.The Corbyn manifesto, then, might not be quite what he dreamed
:14:08. > :14:15.it would be back when he was out on the margins.
:14:16. > :14:17.Joining me now from Salford is Labour's Campaign
:14:18. > :14:31.Jeremy Corbyn was very clear this morning, setting out in his speech
:14:32. > :14:36.the establishment versus the people. He very helpfully listed the people,
:14:37. > :14:42.even name checking some of the baddies, but just tell us who is the
:14:43. > :14:46.establishment in this context? There is an important message, after seven
:14:47. > :14:51.years of Conservative government, what we've seen is a growth in
:14:52. > :14:57.inequality across our society. So people living and working hard in
:14:58. > :15:03.Britain today feel as if they aren't getting their fair share of their
:15:04. > :15:09.efforts. It reminds me very much of the message, clause four on the
:15:10. > :15:17.Labour Party membership card, saying that we seek as a party to create a
:15:18. > :15:21.society that benefits the many, not the few. Fundamentally that's what
:15:22. > :15:26.this election is about, making sure we have policies in place that had
:15:27. > :15:30.the many and the few. The message was clear but wasn't really was who
:15:31. > :15:36.he was talking about. He went through this list of the people, the
:15:37. > :15:40.nurse, the teacher, the carer, the builder, but who are on the other
:15:41. > :15:43.side? He said versus the establishment. If you aren't a
:15:44. > :15:49.nurse, if you're a doctor, a hospital manager, if you are a
:15:50. > :15:52.headteacher, if you are a medium-sized trader, where are you
:15:53. > :15:57.then? Are you part of the establishment?
:15:58. > :16:04.Absolutely not. Where are you, then? What we are pointing to some of the
:16:05. > :16:10.real sharp practices that have really grown in recent years. Some
:16:11. > :16:19.of those exploitative employers that make use of things like zero hours
:16:20. > :16:23.contractsin the worst possible way. Why should people that put in a
:16:24. > :16:29.decent day's work not get the same rights that others enjoyed? Forgive
:16:30. > :16:35.me... That is no longer acceptable. He didn't talk about unfair
:16:36. > :16:38.practices. He said people versus the establishment, or the establishment
:16:39. > :16:42.versus the people, and many people will be struggling to work out the
:16:43. > :16:47.night whether you are on their side, whether they are viewed as the
:16:48. > :16:52.establishment that you are against. If you are small business and you
:16:53. > :16:57.start to do well and growing too big business, do you still support them?
:16:58. > :17:01.We absolutely do, because it is about ordinary working people but
:17:02. > :17:06.then develop small businesses that become the wealth creators and
:17:07. > :17:09.employ more people. What we are talking about here is a rigged
:17:10. > :17:14.society. We are talking about from the very top of government... So the
:17:15. > :17:19.whole of the establishment is rates? No, we have had over the last six
:17:20. > :17:25.years some decisions taken by Government that have really hit
:17:26. > :17:30.people on low and average and medium incomes, whether it has been the
:17:31. > :17:35.cuts to benefits and some of the tax changes that have affected people on
:17:36. > :17:41.lower incomes as opposed to some of the tax changes that have really
:17:42. > :17:45.benefited the super-rich. So when you say super-rich, this is what I'm
:17:46. > :17:50.trying to pin down. You have already named checked the people you don't
:17:51. > :17:55.like, the Philip Greens and the Mike Ashleys and the rest of it, but now
:17:56. > :17:59.you go to the super-rich. If you are redistributing, you have to be
:18:00. > :18:05.taking away from some. Who is super-rich? Is a doctor super-rich?
:18:06. > :18:08.Is a surgeon super-rich? If you are redistributing, something has to be
:18:09. > :18:12.taken away to give it to the people you think deserve it more. You need
:18:13. > :18:15.to be a little bit patient because we will be publishing our manifesto
:18:16. > :18:20.that will have all of our commitment, all of our policies
:18:21. > :18:26.fully costed in the weeks ahead for the election campaign. But what you
:18:27. > :18:30.will see... But you set those terms today, you have made a big speech
:18:31. > :18:35.saying we are the people versus the establishment, that is why I am
:18:36. > :18:39.asking. What you will see is a programme for fairness, that ensures
:18:40. > :18:41.that those people who have really lost out and been hit hard under
:18:42. > :18:49.this Conservative government over the last seven years will get a fair
:18:50. > :18:52.say, a fair hearing, and we will build a Britain for the many and not
:18:53. > :18:55.the few. And what we have heard time and again is that the Tories are
:18:56. > :18:59.hell-bent on cuts to public services, that has been Jeremy
:19:00. > :19:03.Corbyn's line. So you will end austerity? There will be no more
:19:04. > :19:07.spending cuts after June if there is a Corbyn government, is that right?
:19:08. > :19:13.You will have to wait and see some of the exciting announcements... If
:19:14. > :19:18.you are a government ending austerity... I know you are trying
:19:19. > :19:21.to get me to preannounce the manifesto live on Newsnight, I am
:19:22. > :19:31.not going to do that. But you will be pleasantly supplies -- surprised
:19:32. > :19:35.when you see some of the policy announcements we will make. When you
:19:36. > :19:39.talk about ending austerity, the one thing people know about Corbyn's
:19:40. > :19:43.Labour Party as they don't like austerities and cuts to public
:19:44. > :19:47.spending, it should be written into concrete for you to be above say,
:19:48. > :19:51.yes, we are ending austerity, no more public spending cuts. And you
:19:52. > :19:54.will see when the manifesto is published that there is a real
:19:55. > :19:59.commitment to investing in public services, in NHS, in social care,
:20:00. > :20:03.that has really been cut back to the bone and is causing a crisis out
:20:04. > :20:09.there. You will see investment in public services because of that is
:20:10. > :20:13.the kind of society, a fairer society Labour wants to deliver. And
:20:14. > :20:17.one thing you have been clear about and John Woodcock reinforced at the
:20:18. > :20:21.end of that these is that we do know where you are on the Trident policy,
:20:22. > :20:26.you would as a party renew Trident as things stand, is that right? The
:20:27. > :20:31.Labour Party will always put the security interests of this country
:20:32. > :20:34.first. And you will have a Trident policy, but you will have a leader
:20:35. > :20:39.that wouldn't press the button, does that still stand? We will have a
:20:40. > :20:44.Prime Minister who has Trident but doesn't arrest the button? You are
:20:45. > :20:48.trying to drag me down a road here... I'm trying to get clarity.
:20:49. > :20:53.The Labour Party in Government will do nothing that puts the security of
:20:54. > :20:57.the United Kingdom at risk. Andrew Gwynne, thank you. Thank you.
:20:58. > :20:59.Theresa May stunned Westminster when she called her snap
:21:00. > :21:03.For the gamble to pay off she hopes to win a string
:21:04. > :21:07.But Newsnight has tonight learned that the Prime Minister's secrecy
:21:08. > :21:10.in calling the poll might have left her own party unprepared.
:21:11. > :21:22.We wanted to find out how prepared Theresa May's party was for the
:21:23. > :21:26.coming election, so we looked at 36 key target seats where there is a
:21:27. > :21:30.Labour MP at the moment on a majority of less than 5000, and
:21:31. > :21:37.crucially, constituencies that the analysis suggests voted for Brexit.
:21:38. > :21:41.We managed to get in touch with 20 of those seats and get an answer
:21:42. > :21:45.from them on their candidate selection, and we found that out of
:21:46. > :21:52.those 20, not a single one had yet appointed a candidate for those
:21:53. > :21:55.seats. Now, that matters of course because at the moment there is a
:21:56. > :21:59.Labour MP going around seeking re-election or starting their
:22:00. > :22:04.campaign, well bedded in, campaigning tomorrow and next week,
:22:05. > :22:09.and some of these seats told us they hadn't even started the selection
:22:10. > :22:13.process, some even had long list of 100 applicants still to wade through
:22:14. > :22:17.to get a short list, and others hadn't even begun the process at
:22:18. > :22:21.all, and it is highly unusual for a governing party to go into an
:22:22. > :22:27.election in that sort of state of unpreparedness. Thank you.
:22:28. > :22:30.The announcement of a snap election this week was one of those rare
:22:31. > :22:31.moments in politics: a genuine surprise.
:22:32. > :22:34.The fact it wasn't leaked points to a small but tightly knit coterie
:22:35. > :22:36.around Theresa May, at the very heart of
:22:37. > :22:41.May has since told us the decision was born as the couple enjoyed
:22:42. > :22:42.the fresh mountain air and isolation of Snowdonia.
:22:43. > :22:46.Philip May eschews the limelight but some say he could be the most
:22:47. > :22:56.What role does he play in the workings of Number 10?
:22:57. > :23:04.On the evening of July the 13th last year, all eyes were fixed on the
:23:05. > :23:08.last candidate left standing after the brief but bloody battle to
:23:09. > :23:12.succeed David Cameron. Out of the immediate shot of the cameras, an
:23:13. > :23:16.unassuming figure, barely known outside Westminster, looked on with
:23:17. > :23:22.pride as Britain's second female Prime Minister took office. This
:23:23. > :23:28.week, the Prime Minister stood on the own in Downing Street, but this
:23:29. > :23:31.was no lonely figure. Theresa May finally decided to take her
:23:32. > :23:36.uncharacteristic gamble in the presence of just one other person.
:23:37. > :23:45.Her husband, Philip May, during a walking holiday in Snowdonia. Philip
:23:46. > :23:49.May's central hole -- central role at a defining moment shows that
:23:50. > :23:54.here's a dip in dispensable member of her inner circle. Much attention
:23:55. > :23:57.has been paid to number ten Joint Chiefs of Staff, Nick Timothy Fiona
:23:58. > :23:59.hill, but Theresa May is loath to take any big political decision
:24:00. > :24:06.without first consulting her husband. It is truly a marriage of
:24:07. > :24:12.equals. I think it is hard to contest the view that Philip
:24:13. > :24:18.Hammond, the Chancellor, is only the second most important Philip living
:24:19. > :24:22.on Downing Street. Philip is clearly acting informally as an adviser to
:24:23. > :24:27.Theresa May, probably much as Denis Thatcher did to Margaret Thatcher.
:24:28. > :24:32.He will stand up to her, and I think sometimes fittest ideas against him,
:24:33. > :24:37.and he will put a different point of view. She always listens to him. She
:24:38. > :24:43.will listen. She might not act on it, but she will listen. Friends who
:24:44. > :24:46.knew the couple when they met 40 years earlier would never have bet
:24:47. > :24:52.that it would be Theresa May walking into Number 10. If you look back
:24:53. > :24:57.into the history rather than how it turned out, you might have thought,
:24:58. > :25:03.well, Phil would go into politics, but he didn't. But I think he has
:25:04. > :25:05.been very supportive, and that is what you see today, that the
:25:06. > :25:13.interest has stemmed from his politics, but Theresa is the one who
:25:14. > :25:17.went mainstream. Oxford, a cradle of ambition for many wannabe Prime
:25:18. > :25:22.Minister is, provided a lyrical setting for the start of the Made
:25:23. > :25:27.partnership. The future Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto played
:25:28. > :25:37.Cupid to what seemed an unlikely pairing. He was two years below her.
:25:38. > :25:41.To be honest, he seemed a bit young, to a 20-year-old. He only just past
:25:42. > :25:48.the height test, because Theresa liked her boyfriends to be at least
:25:49. > :25:56.as tall as her, and I think he only just about past master.
:25:57. > :26:03.# Watch that scene # Digging the dancing Queen.
:26:04. > :26:07.In those heady days of the 1970s, it turned out that Philip May wasn't
:26:08. > :26:11.her first Oxford romance. She certainly seems to be trialling a
:26:12. > :26:17.fair number! I'm not sure many got very serious. But there were a
:26:18. > :26:22.number she went out with. But once Philip appeared on the scene, it
:26:23. > :26:30.rather felt like the rest were nowhere. Theresa May made what one
:26:31. > :26:34.friend described as desultory attempts to pursue a career at the
:26:35. > :26:39.Oxford union. She never held office herself, but returned to her alma
:26:40. > :26:45.mater as her future husband embarked on his own union career. Within a
:26:46. > :26:55.year of escorting one well-known figure two A1978 debate, Philip May
:26:56. > :27:00.had secured the coveted post of union president for himself. Around
:27:01. > :27:06.the time Margaret Thatcher entered Number 10 with her own low-key
:27:07. > :27:11.consort in tow. He was very ambitious. I think it was fair to
:27:12. > :27:14.say that he wasn't an exciting speaker. He was a worthy,
:27:15. > :27:21.middle-of-the-road conservative. There were a lot of pretty colourful
:27:22. > :27:26.people around who I think were more obviously going somewhere as
:27:27. > :27:32.politicians. The following year, Philip May married Theresa brazier.
:27:33. > :27:39.Shortly afterwards, Theresa May, an only child, lost both her parents.
:27:40. > :27:41.I had huge supporting my husband, and that was very important for me.
:27:42. > :27:56.He was a real rock from the. Theresa and Philip May knuckled down
:27:57. > :28:07.in the city in the 1980s and it underwent the Big Bang up evil, but
:28:08. > :28:16.they shunned the yuppie lifestyle to focus on fundraising. -- the Big
:28:17. > :28:20.Bang up evil. As the local agent, my job was to make sure we kept the
:28:21. > :28:24.local organisation going and focused on raising some cash and some money,
:28:25. > :28:32.too, and she was very much and they were very much the leaders of the
:28:33. > :28:38.local Conservative Party. Philip May. ABBA 1996 Conservative Party
:28:39. > :28:44.conference, the 29-year-old Philip May showed he still had ambitions on
:28:45. > :28:47.the national stage. I guess that most people would think that foreign
:28:48. > :28:51.affairs isn't exactly a very sexy subject. The delivery was eight had
:28:52. > :28:58.wooden, although he had a clear message on one contentious issue.
:28:59. > :29:01.Britain has been a member of the European Community for 13 years and
:29:02. > :29:05.we have helped to change many things in Europe for the good, and I hope
:29:06. > :29:09.we will continue to do so. We need to strengthen the economic base of
:29:10. > :29:16.the community by breaking down the barriers to the free movement of
:29:17. > :29:19.goods and services. But you know Europe is not just an economic
:29:20. > :29:27.community, it is a political community, too. In the early 1990s,
:29:28. > :29:32.it was Theresa May who stood for Parliament. Unsuccessfully. By then,
:29:33. > :29:42.Philip May's own political ambitions were waning. I asked him years later
:29:43. > :29:48.after Theresa became an MP if he thought he might become one too, and
:29:49. > :29:52.he said, no, we have discussed it, but we think one in the family is
:29:53. > :29:59.probably quite sufficient. And I think they felt that it would be too
:30:00. > :30:02.much work, and drawn too many ways. And he does in awful lot in the
:30:03. > :30:12.constituency. Again, it is the support side. And he always has. He
:30:13. > :30:16.sort of supports her job. So, Philip May decided to
:30:17. > :30:21.concentrate on his City career in asset management, with a focus on
:30:22. > :30:27.client relations. He was not flashy and was low-key as his wife's
:30:28. > :30:32.political career rocketed after her election to Parliament in 1997. One
:30:33. > :30:37.senior Tory MP who has known the couple since Oxford believes that
:30:38. > :30:39.Philip May's City background leaves him well-placed to advise the Prime
:30:40. > :30:44.Minister on the dangers posed by Brexit.
:30:45. > :30:51.They both know, I think it's becoming more evident, that in
:30:52. > :30:57.public policy too that leaving the EU and returning to the WTO rules
:30:58. > :31:01.would be a high risk strategy and we need a new deal. The financial
:31:02. > :31:06.services sector in particular needs to have a way of getting access to
:31:07. > :31:12.Continental European markets. He knows a lot about that subject from
:31:13. > :31:15.his background in insurance and other parts of the financial world
:31:16. > :31:19.and I expect he's feeding those thoughts in. At a time when many
:31:20. > :31:23.contemporaries of theirs are retiring, Theresa May's new role has
:31:24. > :31:29.prompted her husband to make a career change of his own. He's still
:31:30. > :31:37.working four days a week. He just said he'd given up one day a week to
:31:38. > :31:43.run a private side. He said that Theresa has no time for it. Over the
:31:44. > :31:50.coming weeks, Theresa May will portray herself as the ultimate safe
:31:51. > :31:54.pair of hands. No doubt steady Phil will help to reinforce that message.
:31:55. > :32:03.They aren't the most exciting people but as you know in politics, being
:32:04. > :32:09.dial isn't always an advantage -- being dull isn't a disadvantage.
:32:10. > :32:16.Perhaps what has taken the Prime Minister to the top would be less
:32:17. > :32:20.easy without her rock. Phillips says to me, Theresa says it is a job and
:32:21. > :32:24.you have to put it to one side when you've finished it and I think the
:32:25. > :32:31.fact that she can go home developed and talk things through with him and
:32:32. > :32:36.put it aside is a way of surviving it -- go home and talk to Philip.
:32:37. > :32:38.Like many broadcasters, we entered into the spirit
:32:39. > :32:40.of election 2015 rather excited about our polling models.
:32:41. > :32:50.And the next day you might recall we pulled
:32:51. > :32:53.the plug and sent it off to polling index heaven.
:32:54. > :32:56.Well, who'd have thought we'd be back here so quickly?
:32:57. > :32:59.So can we trust the pollsters, and what have they learned
:33:00. > :33:09.In a moment we'll speak to Newsnight's former pet
:33:10. > :33:13.But first here is Joe Twyman, from the leading pollsters, YouGov,
:33:14. > :33:16.to have a go at explaining what he thinks went wrong,
:33:17. > :33:19.The last few years have shown that we pollsters don't
:33:20. > :33:23.It's worth remembering that we don't always get things wrong either.
:33:24. > :33:30.The majority of election polls since World War II
:33:31. > :33:33.have on average been within 2% of the actual vote share.
:33:34. > :33:36.Only at one election has the average error
:33:37. > :33:42.No final published poll has ever been more than 6% out.
:33:43. > :33:46.The accuracy improved in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but in 2015, they were not
:33:47. > :33:53.This error was due to a number of things, such as the way we model
:33:54. > :33:56.voter turnout but the key factor was the difficulty in getting
:33:57. > :34:04.We've gone back to the millions of data points we'd previously
:34:05. > :34:07.collected and analysed them to identify the specific key groups
:34:08. > :34:10.within our sample who need to be better represented in our surveys.
:34:11. > :34:12.People who are not as interested in politics, for example.
:34:13. > :34:14.It then becomes a matter of recruitment.
:34:15. > :34:17.YouGov has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds last year
:34:18. > :34:22.alone recruiting specifically targeted people to sign up
:34:23. > :34:37.Since the last election, big data has also come into play.
:34:38. > :34:40.Being able to draw on a host of additional variables and historic
:34:41. > :34:42.data that is available on our servers has been essential
:34:43. > :34:43.in developing a greater, deeper understanding
:34:44. > :34:47.No matter how well we do, however, we cannot abolish
:34:48. > :34:51.Polling is an inexact science and even the most perfect polls
:34:52. > :34:53.will still have a margin of error associated with them
:34:54. > :34:56.and they are only ever a snapshot of public opinion at the given
:34:57. > :35:01.Chris Hanretty was our man in election 2015, and he's back now.
:35:02. > :35:08.Nice to see you, Chris. Do you agree that it was the difficulty in
:35:09. > :35:14.getting people to take part, there was a lack of enough data? Yes, the
:35:15. > :35:19.key problem, as you heard, is one of recruiting people, how do you get
:35:20. > :35:25.people who don't really care about politics to answer questions about
:35:26. > :35:29.it? A tricky thing and paying them, working harder to recruit them, they
:35:30. > :35:33.both ways of addressing these problems but how will we know
:35:34. > :35:39.whether efforts have worked? We'll know after this election. What do
:35:40. > :35:43.you do, then? I mean, can you assume that is something you don't know and
:35:44. > :35:49.account for it, or does that not work? You can try and look for
:35:50. > :35:53.characteristics that matter based on what you know about politics. One
:35:54. > :35:59.example, education. The referendum showed clearly that education is
:36:00. > :36:02.structuring our political views more than it has done in the past so
:36:03. > :36:07.polling companies are making sure that the composition of the sample
:36:08. > :36:10.matches what we know from the census about educational qualifications and
:36:11. > :36:15.how they match up with age, so they are getting the right kind of
:36:16. > :36:20.people. The point was made about big data. So much is known about us now,
:36:21. > :36:27.even from our smartphones, it should be easier to read, people's
:36:28. > :36:31.political allegiances and biases. It's a question of matching back to
:36:32. > :36:38.the true value in the population. We know from things like the census how
:36:39. > :36:44.many people are aged 18-25. We don't know, for example, how many people
:36:45. > :36:47.watch Casualties and Newsnight. Those people may affect political
:36:48. > :36:50.attitudes but we can't tell the population value. You need some
:36:51. > :36:58.baseline truth against which you can measure yourself. This is
:36:59. > :37:01.interesting, the pollsters, I think you were down with journalists and
:37:02. > :37:07.us at one point in terms of the public perception! Do you think it's
:37:08. > :37:09.about getting the numbers right, or is it about landing on the
:37:10. > :37:15.Brightside of the coin? I think polling companies unfairly get
:37:16. > :37:20.pilloried based on which side they ended up -- on the right side of the
:37:21. > :37:26.coin. If you go back to the reverend, a lot of polls said that
:37:27. > :37:30.Leave was ahead. Most pollsters said that it would go for Remain and that
:37:31. > :37:34.is what stuck. People feel that the polls called it for Remain and
:37:35. > :37:40.therefore they are rubbish, but they all said it would be close. In terms
:37:41. > :37:44.of what you're doing with your modelling, this has been sprung on
:37:45. > :37:49.everyone so you probably haven't got time, have you, to get something
:37:50. > :37:54.that feels accurate? I'm probably going to steer clear of making any
:37:55. > :37:57.firm forecasts for this election. This election has taken, I think,
:37:58. > :38:00.certainly me by surprise. Thank you for joining us.
:38:01. > :38:03.When you found out Serena Williams was pregnant when she won her 23rd
:38:04. > :38:06.grand slam without dropping a set, what was your reaction?
:38:07. > :38:08.Elation that pregnancy can be that liberating?
:38:09. > :38:09.Or desperation that such a ridiculously high
:38:10. > :38:16.The pregnant world is divided between those who hate
:38:17. > :38:19.being viewed as ill or incapable for nine long months,
:38:20. > :38:21.and those who who frankly, wish the world would cut
:38:22. > :38:26.Here to discuss this are Anna Kessel, sports journalist
:38:27. > :38:28.for the Guardian and the Observer and chair of Women in
:38:29. > :38:31.Football, and Liz Young, a professional golfer.
:38:32. > :38:33.She competed in the British Open last year when she was
:38:34. > :38:45.Liz, I'm fascinated, not just by how it felt, in terms of your body and
:38:46. > :38:50.your fatigue, but the perception of you, golfing, when you were so
:38:51. > :38:55.heavily pregnant. Was there a lot of stigma about seeing a woman trying
:38:56. > :38:58.to do competitive sport? I definitely had some second looks
:38:59. > :39:03.from people who didn't realise that I was pregnant. I turned around and
:39:04. > :39:08.the bump was showering and I have a second glance. On the whole, from my
:39:09. > :39:13.friends on the tour and colleagues, they were very supportive and
:39:14. > :39:18.congratulating me in doing it. On the other hand, I got some attention
:39:19. > :39:24.that was, is this the right thing I should be doing, due to looking
:39:25. > :39:29.after my unborn child? You weren't meant to be a competitive person
:39:30. > :39:32.with a bump? Some people in the papers were questioning whether it
:39:33. > :39:37.was healthy for the baby and whether it was healthy for me. Should I be
:39:38. > :39:45.competing at a top level while being pregnant? And physically, was it
:39:46. > :39:50.harder to concentrate? Was it harder to balance? Did it take a bigger
:39:51. > :39:53.toll on your body than you thought? For me, the mental side became
:39:54. > :40:01.easier because I started focusing more on her and worrying about that
:40:02. > :40:04.rather than my golf, which took the pressure off, but physically as the
:40:05. > :40:12.pregnancy went on, like I'm sure with all women, it becomes harder to
:40:13. > :40:16.do. Do you think women will find it liberating to see these amazing
:40:17. > :40:23.sportswomen, you know, competing with child as well, or is it an
:40:24. > :40:27.extra hurdle? No, I don't think it's an extra hurdle, they are doing
:40:28. > :40:33.their regular jobs. We may think it is amazing to win a Grand Slam,
:40:34. > :40:39.Serena has won 23. We are never going to win them without or with a
:40:40. > :40:43.pregnancy! What she has done is extraordinary and when you look at
:40:44. > :40:50.the very few female sportswomen who have been threatened during their
:40:51. > :40:55.careers... In football, we don't see pregnant women footballers? Not
:40:56. > :40:59.many, there is one amazing example who played in the Champions League
:41:00. > :41:05.final at four is pregnant but Burton need most of sport is very male
:41:06. > :41:10.dominated and trying to persuade women not to have babies until they
:41:11. > :41:15.retire. What Serena has done is breaking the mould and pioneering
:41:16. > :41:17.and the frustrating newspaper headlines and discussion about
:41:18. > :41:23.whether this is the end of her career... Most women can relate to
:41:24. > :41:31.that and they will groan and think I'm just having a baby, I will come
:41:32. > :41:38.back. Are there some sports where it is impossible to compete? Yes,
:41:39. > :41:42.definitely. We were talking about golf, you play for the longer period
:41:43. > :41:47.of time. Some sports are seen as more dangerous. Mary King competed
:41:48. > :41:53.in the equestrianism. Paula Radcliffe I think said... You have
:41:54. > :41:58.complimented that, she said that she lost a bit of her competitive edge
:41:59. > :42:05.when she was pregnant. Do you think that is a part of it? Does that
:42:06. > :42:11.sound anathema to you? That sounds like nonsense to me. Does it? When
:42:12. > :42:14.Jessica Ennis-Hill announced her pregnancy a lot of the discussion
:42:15. > :42:19.was about whether she would have the hunger to compete and I think that
:42:20. > :42:24.is a trope that women are so fed up of hearing. It changes as in many
:42:25. > :42:25.ways but it does not make us less ambitious. I'm glad we put that to
:42:26. > :42:35.bed! Thank you for joining us. That's all we have time for for the
:42:36. > :42:51.night but we will be back with a special from Paris.
:42:52. > :42:52.The night will be mostly dry but cold in places with some patchy