:00:09. > :00:13.In half an hour from now, the French election campaign
:00:14. > :00:16.By law, no party message can be broadcast, no
:00:17. > :00:23.The end of the first round of an election,
:00:24. > :00:29.The killing of a policeman last night has added
:00:30. > :00:39.The poll leader, Emmanuel Macron, says no-one should be trying
:00:40. > :00:42.to score political points out of the shooting.
:00:43. > :00:44.We'll ask the Front National's campaign coordinator why
:00:45. > :01:02.And we journey deep into the heart of France.
:01:03. > :01:04.It says here that this monument symbolises the centre of gravity of
:01:05. > :01:06.continental France. Meanwhile, here at home,
:01:07. > :01:08.in our election campaign, Theresa May made a commitment
:01:09. > :01:20.on foreign aid that Let's be clear, the 0.7% commitment
:01:21. > :01:23.remains and will remain. We need to look at how that money is spent and
:01:24. > :01:27.make sure we are able to spend that money in the most effective way.
:01:28. > :01:34.Jeremy Corbyn has been telling Labour's story on the trail.
:01:35. > :01:36.Frightened of the bear, this big Bear?
:01:37. > :01:38.Party political pledges are being made.
:01:39. > :01:56.How much will Brexit determine what this election comes down to?
:01:57. > :02:03.Hello, mild evening in Paris, as it counts to an election
:02:04. > :02:04.that promises change - whoever wins.
:02:05. > :02:07.Hugely consequential for the EU, for Brexit and for the people here.
:02:08. > :02:10.Today, the last day of the campaign was of course, the day overshadowed
:02:11. > :02:13.by the killing of a police officer last night, just a few
:02:14. > :02:17.Be clear, this has not been the same sort of shock
:02:18. > :02:19.as previous incidents, not at all, life has
:02:20. > :02:22.But it has affected the election campaign.
:02:23. > :02:25.The fact that the killer - named today as Karim Cheurfi -
:02:26. > :02:29.was known to the authorities, had been in jail before and had
:02:30. > :02:33.previously attacked a police officer obviously became an election issue.
:02:34. > :02:35.Does that benefit the candidates of the right?
:02:36. > :02:38.Two of them made an argument that they would be tougher
:02:39. > :02:39.on terrorism today - earning a rebuke from
:02:40. > :02:45.What we know is that we already have an unprecedentedly
:02:46. > :02:50.No voters anywhere are getting as wide a range
:02:51. > :02:54.Populist right, populist left, traditional conservative,
:02:55. > :03:00.Any of the top four candidates could make it
:03:01. > :03:22.Paris in spring, the Arc de Triomphe's little brother, celebrate
:03:23. > :03:26.Napoleon's victories and harks back to time the country was divided
:03:27. > :03:32.between Conservative loyalists and liberals inspired by the French and
:03:33. > :03:41.France has divisions today that are coming to a head in an election that
:03:42. > :03:45.is in effect a four horse race. You've heard of Marine le Pen, tough
:03:46. > :03:50.on law and order and immigrants. She was quick to judgment on yesterday's
:03:51. > :03:52.killing. TRANSLATION: For ten years on the government is right and left
:03:53. > :03:58.everything has been done to make sure we lose this war. We need a
:03:59. > :04:04.presidency that acts and protects. And here is anti-globalisation and
:04:05. > :04:07.your Broe sceptic and anti-NATO. He's on the left and has a canny
:04:08. > :04:26.sense of and theatre. It's easy to imagine voters
:04:27. > :04:31.switching between Jean-Luc Melenchon and Marine le Pen, because even
:04:32. > :04:36.though they are so far apart on many things, they are on the same side of
:04:37. > :04:40.the great divide. Ah you to hell and want to change everything? One
:04:41. > :04:45.unlikely outcome on Sunday evening is that the two of them go through
:04:46. > :04:49.to the final run-off. Unlikely, because they are actually fighting
:04:50. > :04:54.over some of the same voters, but were that to happen, it would be a
:04:55. > :04:58.Brexit moment for France, it would be a nightmare for the European
:04:59. > :05:02.Union and it would be a good time to sell LE Eurocurrency might have. --
:05:03. > :05:06.any euro currency. That's what the top candidates are trying to stop,
:05:07. > :05:12.also promising change, Emmanuel Macron is leading in the polls.
:05:13. > :05:15.Centrist, a social and economic liberal, and yesterday he secured
:05:16. > :05:25.the Obama vote. Hello Mr President, how are you? Immanuel? Yes, exactly.
:05:26. > :05:31.I'm doing very well. But he's young, untried and he worked in banking.
:05:32. > :05:34.Fortunately for Emmanuel Macron, his rival has worse scandals against him
:05:35. > :05:40.than that and has struggled to change the subject. TRANSLATION:
:05:41. > :05:47.It's not just as they want, it's to break me, and not just me, it's the
:05:48. > :05:50.right they want a break. The polls say of the four, and Marine le Pen
:05:51. > :05:55.and Emmanuel Macron are most likely to go through, but are they right?
:05:56. > :06:01.What is most striking in this election is that one of the two
:06:02. > :06:06.favourite candidates, Emmanuel Macron, he gained ground and is now
:06:07. > :06:11.better than he was, but he still has a proportion of voters that are not
:06:12. > :06:16.sure that their choice is definitive, that they will go and
:06:17. > :06:23.vote for him. Marine le Pen's voters, are they not more committed?
:06:24. > :06:28.That's one of the characteristics of National front voters. When you look
:06:29. > :06:32.at the outside candidates, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Marine le Pen, six of the
:06:33. > :06:35.French candidates we never talk about but whose posters be spoiled
:06:36. > :06:41.this otherwise beautiful city, their radical in their own way. Take all
:06:42. > :06:47.of them together, their totals in the opinion polls come to almost
:06:48. > :06:51.exactly 50%. And what that implies is this country is almost evenly
:06:52. > :06:56.divided between those who want to overthrow the system and those who
:06:57. > :07:02.want to adapt it. That's why one really natural outcome would be for
:07:03. > :07:07.a final showdown between the two torchbearers of those sentiments.
:07:08. > :07:12.Marine le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. He is expected to be the next
:07:13. > :07:16.president in two weeks, but no one can be sure. Spring is the best time
:07:17. > :07:19.to be in Paris, everyone knows that, and this is a spring that promises
:07:20. > :07:21.to be like no other. The French polls are rather
:07:22. > :07:26.interesting by the way - they have been clustering together,
:07:27. > :07:28.and remarkably consistent; that either gives you the confidence
:07:29. > :07:31.to believe their predictions Or, that the pollsters have some
:07:32. > :07:34.sort of flawed group-think. But there has not been a poll
:07:35. > :07:39.since February that's not made So to learn more about him, I spoke
:07:40. > :07:45.last night to Benjamin Griveaux, the main spokesman of his party,
:07:46. > :07:47.En Marche. And began by asking him
:07:48. > :07:56.who he wanted to come second. You know, French voters will decide
:07:57. > :07:59.who will be our opponent, but if we follow the polls,
:08:00. > :08:03.it should be Marine le Pen. She's leading every poll
:08:04. > :08:07.since two years now. Even if the polls are not that good
:08:08. > :08:11.for her right now, she is still Populism in France, and it's
:08:12. > :08:18.difficult to define, but we kind of know what we're
:08:19. > :08:22.talking about when we use the term. You have Marine le Pen,
:08:23. > :08:26.Jean-Luc Melenchon, you've got another seven or eight candidates
:08:27. > :08:29.who you would describe as in the same vein
:08:30. > :08:34.as one of those two. Their support adds up to 50%, half
:08:35. > :08:37.the French population, doesn't it? The main issue, I think,
:08:38. > :08:41.is unemployment. We have a 10% rate of
:08:42. > :08:44.unemployment in France. We have 9 million people under
:08:45. > :08:49.the poverty level right now, and people just want to get rid
:08:50. > :08:52.of them, want to get rid of the usual solution
:08:53. > :08:56.that the Conservative and the Labour Party in France
:08:57. > :09:00.propose to them since 30 years. And those two main parties,
:09:01. > :09:02.we should remind everybody, are doing very badly in the polls
:09:03. > :09:06.when it comes to this But your candidate, Emmanuel Macron,
:09:07. > :09:10.is painting himself Your candidate, the change
:09:11. > :09:17.candidate, has worked for the Rothschilds,
:09:18. > :09:18.and he's worked for He went to the top French school,
:09:19. > :09:24.of course, so he knows What he did, and he took a huge risk
:09:25. > :09:32.when he launched his movement. I mean nobody had ever done
:09:33. > :09:36.that before in France, because usually if you want to run
:09:37. > :09:40.for president, you start by being a congressman
:09:41. > :09:44.for ten years or 15 years, you find a territory where you can
:09:45. > :09:49.be elected, where people vote for you as a mayor,
:09:50. > :09:52.and then as a congressman, or maybe as a senator,
:09:53. > :09:54.then you are allowed Should the British be scared
:09:55. > :09:59.of Macron winning this election? Because he is the most pro-European
:10:00. > :10:02.of the major candidates, and, to some extent,
:10:03. > :10:04.maybe the least sympathetic to a country that is trying
:10:05. > :10:09.to negotiate its withdrawal. He visited Theresa May
:10:10. > :10:13.last February. You know, he respects the votes
:10:14. > :10:19.of the British people. As your Prime Minister says,
:10:20. > :10:24."Brexit means Brexit". So you need to have not punitive
:10:25. > :10:27.approach of Brexit, for sure, A responsible and a clear one,
:10:28. > :10:32.but obviously what we want, what the British are seeking
:10:33. > :10:36.in these negotiations, it is kind of access to bits
:10:37. > :10:39.of the single market and the Customs To access the single market,
:10:40. > :10:44.you need to have a full freedom of movement and you need to pay
:10:45. > :10:49.a financial contribution That, I think, is telling me that
:10:50. > :10:55.you're going to be quite hard... We can work on, of course,
:10:56. > :11:02.long-term agreements with the UK. I mean, France and UK
:11:03. > :11:06.remains two close friends, and we will have to work probably
:11:07. > :11:10.on strategy key issues, defence, I did want to just
:11:11. > :11:15.finish on security. Does that play, do you think it has
:11:16. > :11:22.an effect on the election, an election in which people
:11:23. > :11:25.are feeling scared of change, potentially, feeling
:11:26. > :11:28.that the country is in Do you think when there
:11:29. > :11:31.are attacks of any kind, I mean, of course it takes a certain
:11:32. > :11:38.place in this election. Of course we all have in mind
:11:39. > :11:42.these images of Nice and the 14th of July and so on,
:11:43. > :11:46.but I think that when you have a responsible
:11:47. > :11:52.agenda on terrorism, French people are also
:11:53. > :11:57.responsible people. They don't want their liberties,
:11:58. > :12:03.their civil rights to be abolished in the name of fighting terrorism
:12:04. > :12:09.and so on. We are very much attached to our
:12:10. > :12:12.liberties and our civil rights. Benjamin Griveaux, thanks very
:12:13. > :12:14.much indeed, thank you. We're joined by Jean Messiha,
:12:15. > :12:35.who is campaign coordinator Very good evening to you. Your
:12:36. > :12:39.candidate made politics of the murder of the policeman yesterday,
:12:40. > :12:44.didn't she? I wouldn't say that. I think Marine le Pen has been talking
:12:45. > :12:49.about this risk and this threat for months and years now, and she was
:12:50. > :12:55.the only one, the only candidate to talk about that, the only
:12:56. > :13:00.candidate... The only candidate to have talked about terrorism? Yes, in
:13:01. > :13:04.this campaign she is the only candidate to have talked about
:13:05. > :13:08.terrorism, to talk about the risk of terrorism and also the only
:13:09. > :13:12.candidate to have asked the actual... Do you think is
:13:13. > :13:17.appropriate the day before a policeman is buried to make a highly
:13:18. > :13:24.divisive speech, at a time in the country... A very divisive speech.
:13:25. > :13:28.It wasn't a divisive speech. She blames the politicians. Yes, because
:13:29. > :13:32.we believe all that happened in the past years in the terrorist field
:13:33. > :13:37.could have been avoided if serious steps would have been taken to
:13:38. > :13:42.tackle them. She mentioned some steps today that were essentially
:13:43. > :13:48.about deporting people, foreign and being investigated, by nationality.
:13:49. > :13:53.Yes, blacklisted people. How would that have helped in the case of
:13:54. > :13:58.yesterday? He was born in north-east Paris, how would that have helped?
:13:59. > :14:04.He was followed, actually, by the police. How would it have helped to
:14:05. > :14:10.deport him? He was liberated before his time... How would talking about
:14:11. > :14:14.deporting people have helped in this case, a man born just outside Paris?
:14:15. > :14:24.In this case it is not about deporting people, it's a lax
:14:25. > :14:30.judicial power, releasing him before his full of custody. It wouldn't
:14:31. > :14:35.have helped in this case. This morning, it's divisive to do so. No,
:14:36. > :14:40.she was talking not only about this specific case. She was talking in
:14:41. > :14:44.global, all the attacks that hit France in the last two years. It's
:14:45. > :14:51.divisive to talk about deporting foreigners.... Again, it is not
:14:52. > :14:55.deporting foreigners. We have 10,000 people who are blacklisted for
:14:56. > :15:00.security reasons. And links to terrorism, so all of those who are
:15:01. > :15:05.foreigners must be deported. The other ones who are binational must
:15:06. > :15:10.be taken off the French nationality. And the French ones will stay here.
:15:11. > :15:16.The French runs, we have an article in our law that allows us to
:15:17. > :15:19.imprison them. OK. In her comments today, Marine le Pen said the left
:15:20. > :15:23.and right have been doing everything to lose the battle against
:15:24. > :15:29.terrorism. Why did Marine le Pen, in the European Parliament on the 14th
:15:30. > :15:33.of April last year, against measures to introduce passenger name record
:15:34. > :15:36.in European flights? It is the first thing the governments in Europe said
:15:37. > :15:46.we need to do in order to protect the public. She voted against it.
:15:47. > :15:54.We are attached to individual and public liberties. What right has she
:15:55. > :16:01.got to say everyone is doing everything... The truth is they took
:16:02. > :16:09.a measure, something we all want to do. Let me answer you. PNR is a
:16:10. > :16:14.measure were all the passenger records must be gathered and
:16:15. > :16:18.transmitted to the United States agencies. We are very attached to
:16:19. > :16:23.individual liberties and it is not because we are fighting terrorism,
:16:24. > :16:31.because we will threaten the individual liberties. Do you think
:16:32. > :16:35.if Marine Le Pen wins, the bookies have put a 20% chance on that, do
:16:36. > :16:39.you think she can heal the divisions in this country are due you think
:16:40. > :16:45.she will stir up divisions? She is the only one who can heal divisions
:16:46. > :16:52.because she is the only one to call for authorities back on the streets
:16:53. > :16:56.of Paris and this state must use its authority to restore the state power
:16:57. > :17:01.in the street and if the state is stable, in this case, you will have
:17:02. > :17:06.massive terrorist attacks, more and more in quantity and there will be
:17:07. > :17:08.civil war. Thank you for talking to us.
:17:09. > :17:11.Much of the attention of this election has been on Paris and other
:17:12. > :17:13.large metropolitan areas, where the issues of terrorism
:17:14. > :17:14.and immigration have been felt most keenly.
:17:15. > :17:16.But, it's outside the capital that this election
:17:17. > :17:20.Gabriel Gatehouse has gone in search of the France's political
:17:21. > :17:22.and geographic heart ...where three different villages compete
:17:23. > :17:32.to call themselves the centre of the country.
:17:33. > :17:34.Far from the tensions of the big cities, it is here
:17:35. > :17:39.that the presidential election will be decided.
:17:40. > :17:43.We're on a journey to the heart of the country, for it is here,
:17:44. > :17:47.in the Cher region, that three small villages vie for the title
:17:48. > :18:03.We've got lines and distances and calculations, a key
:18:04. > :18:10.I don't know what it all means, but it says here that this monument
:18:11. > :18:17.symbolises the centre of gravity of continental France,
:18:18. > :18:20.not taking into account relief and excluding all islands.
:18:21. > :18:22.We're not the first to try to pinpoint what they call
:18:23. > :18:30."La France profonde" - "Deep France".
:18:31. > :18:37.The majority of French voters live in provincial or rural communities,
:18:38. > :18:39.and yet the mayor says people here feel ignored by
:18:40. > :19:07.Politically, he says, Verdun is divided, half
:19:08. > :19:13.There is an ongoing battle here, to salvage a vanishing way of life.
:19:14. > :19:16.For many, like this lady, a promise to put French people first
:19:17. > :19:41.The issues that fuelled Brexit and Trump are at work
:19:42. > :19:45.This region is a bellwether, as the Cher votes, so
:19:46. > :19:49.does the nation, and so, our search for the geographical heart of France
:19:50. > :19:58.It says here that this ought to be the
:19:59. > :20:08.According to the calculations of the eminent mathematician and
:20:09. > :20:17.Here they've got the church on their side.
:20:18. > :20:19.Buying sausages in the central square, we
:20:20. > :20:23.meet the oldest resident of the village.
:20:24. > :20:26.94-years-old, she was in the French resistance.
:20:27. > :20:28.She ought to know a thing or two about defending
:20:29. > :20:39."We need a President who is up to the job", she
:20:40. > :20:46."The centre has been ignored", her daughter tells me.
:20:47. > :20:51."But now", she adds, "deep France is stirring".
:20:52. > :20:55.Solvay is ploughing it ever dwindling pot of central government
:20:56. > :20:57.money into renovating local businesses.
:20:58. > :21:02.In this way, the mayor tells me they hope to avoid the fate
:21:03. > :21:30.Our search for the centre of France takes us to our final
:21:31. > :21:33.contender Bruere-Allichamps, where they have a claim
:21:34. > :21:39.that is perhaps even stronger than science or the church.
:21:40. > :21:44.This is a third century Roman milestone.
:21:45. > :21:47.It was moved to this ancient crossroads in 1799,
:21:48. > :21:50.and it says here that I tradition this spot is designated
:21:51. > :22:00.At the bistro at the centre of France, the mayor
:22:01. > :22:02.is doing his bit to keep alive the tradition of the four
:22:03. > :22:21.Unemployment in La Cher is more than 10%.
:22:22. > :22:43.Once upon a time people would have turned to the Communist Party.
:22:44. > :22:44.Local polls reflect the picture nationwide, but
:22:45. > :22:51.We came across a supporter trying to give a last-minute boost to the
:22:52. > :23:00.I think the French are very provocative, but they
:23:01. > :23:08.At the time of voting, they are more balanced
:23:09. > :23:10.and they think better and they don't explode.
:23:11. > :23:13.So I have good hope, I have good hope, I keep my fingers
:23:14. > :23:20.For years La France profonde has languished on the
:23:21. > :23:22.political periphery, and if Trump and Brexit teaches anything,
:23:23. > :23:37.Don't underestimate the power of a heartland scorned.
:23:38. > :23:42.We're joined by two journalists who've followed French politics
:23:43. > :23:45.Christine Ockrent was editor and chief of the L'Express
:23:46. > :23:49.and Pierre Haski is the founding editor of Rue 89.
:23:50. > :23:58.You know them because they have been on the show a lot. Normally you end
:23:59. > :24:03.these things with your predictions, but I want to start by asking what
:24:04. > :24:08.your predictions are. I wish you would not ask. This campaign has
:24:09. > :24:14.been full of surprises and the latest polls to indicate always the
:24:15. > :24:23.same trend, but in such a narrow circle. Macron is still ahead, Le
:24:24. > :24:36.Pen comes second, but Fillon has come up as well. I think, it is too
:24:37. > :24:41.early to tell. What do you think, Macron and Le Pen through to the
:24:42. > :24:46.second round? That is what the polls say and normally that is what it
:24:47. > :24:51.should be. I would not exclude a surprise, because we still have a
:24:52. > :24:55.large section of the population that is undecided and we see it in our
:24:56. > :25:01.dinner parties, families, people are still asking what they should vote.
:25:02. > :25:06.There is really this uncertainty. There is a big thing in the Brexit
:25:07. > :25:11.votes and the trumpet votes, the turnout of people and sometimes
:25:12. > :25:16.people who did not usually go out and vote in large numbers, but who
:25:17. > :25:22.did turn out, bigger than pollsters expected and presumably that
:25:23. > :25:27.benefits Le Pen. Our system is so different, we have two rounds, it is
:25:28. > :25:32.a majority vote, it has nothing to do with the referendum. That is a
:25:33. > :25:36.simple question to a complex issue and it is one answer and it has
:25:37. > :25:46.nothing to do with the American system. The turnout is usually the
:25:47. > :25:52.key. If the turnout is low, that will favour Le Pen because she has a
:25:53. > :26:00.much more solid constituency as a base. Why are the Macron voters
:26:01. > :26:07.softer? They seem to be less committed. He is the new kid on the
:26:08. > :26:13.block. He is not tested. He is a very limited experience. He has some
:26:14. > :26:21.aspects of his personality which puzzle people. He has been a banker.
:26:22. > :26:25.He has sometimes got this charismatic way of talking in his
:26:26. > :26:29.beatings. He has some aspects of his programme that are liberal and
:26:30. > :26:36.others that are very social and moderate. Who is he really? A lot of
:26:37. > :26:44.people hesitate and I think people are tempted by Macron. It is a new
:26:45. > :26:50.experience, he has got used and this country is longing for someone,
:26:51. > :26:57.someone who incarnates the future and not the past. Do the Socialists
:26:58. > :27:06.and the Republicans, who could quite easily come forth and faith... Which
:27:07. > :27:11.means get out of the sea. That is amazing. Do they come back from
:27:12. > :27:19.that? Is that terminal for them? I think they probably will murder one
:27:20. > :27:28.another before... Seriously. It will be absolutely bloody, seen among the
:27:29. > :27:33.Conservatives and the Socialists. When Macron launched his career, he
:27:34. > :27:39.called it a movement. I think that is very significant. I think the
:27:40. > :27:43.party system has exhausted its purpose and its life. People today
:27:44. > :27:51.want to be involved in politics, people are not out of politics, they
:27:52. > :27:55.want to take part differently and I think our old party system has
:27:56. > :28:00.really reached the end of the road. Sometimes you compare elections and
:28:01. > :28:06.say it is like the one in 1983 or whatever. This is not like any of
:28:07. > :28:12.them. This is absolutely unique and I think there is not only a
:28:13. > :28:18.generation of change, but there is a kind of mix of Democratic city, at
:28:19. > :28:23.least with the system as it has been going for years, always the same
:28:24. > :28:29.people. At the same time, how great deal of energy and a great deal of
:28:30. > :28:35.resilience. Last night, Paris was supposed to be on fire. This
:28:36. > :28:42.morning, first of all Paris was not on fire and secondly, this morning
:28:43. > :28:46.people were jogging. What is so striking, the voters here have got
:28:47. > :28:55.the most fantastic choice. No one can say there is not the full
:28:56. > :29:00.spectrum. That is one of the issues. You have a choice that is different
:29:01. > :29:06.from the usual line. It is not just right and left what we have had for
:29:07. > :29:09.30 years, we are unhappy with the right and vote for the left and the
:29:10. > :29:17.other way around, this time the dividing line is also about Europe,
:29:18. > :29:21.open country, cross country and that crisscrosses every political family
:29:22. > :29:31.and that makes this election different and also more crucial. The
:29:32. > :29:34.clock has struck midnight in Paris. What a relief!
:29:35. > :29:36.All right, that is all we have time for.
:29:37. > :29:38.The estimated result of Round 1 will be at seven
:29:39. > :29:42.It's not an exit poll, it's based on sample counts from
:29:43. > :29:46.And they'll call the result as long as it isn't too close.
:29:47. > :29:49.But - they've no experience of with a four way race
:29:50. > :29:59.Get ready for it - UK election fever is coming
:30:00. > :30:02.to a town near you - Or it already has if
:30:03. > :30:04.you were in Swindon, Bristol or Cardiff today -
:30:05. > :30:06.where Jeremy Corbyn kicked off his campaign outside London.
:30:07. > :30:09.This afternoon, the eagle-eyed may even have spotted an extra
:30:10. > :30:11.spring in his step - Close ally, Len Mcluskey,
:30:12. > :30:19.If Labour is to succeed, it needs to pick up tens of seats
:30:20. > :30:22.from the Conservatives, so what is the winning strategy?
:30:23. > :30:24.Our correspondent, David Grossman, joined the Labour leader as he began
:30:25. > :30:36.Jeremy Corbyn is beginning the fight of his life.
:30:37. > :30:38.Rarely has a Leader of the Opposition started a campaign
:30:39. > :30:42.with the arithmetic so steeply stacked against him.
:30:43. > :30:47.The choice of this seat for the Labour leader's first
:30:48. > :30:49.campaigning stop outside London is a statement of intent.
:30:50. > :30:54.It's gone to the governing party in every election
:30:55. > :30:57.Indeed, all the seats Jeremy Corbyn is going to visit today
:30:58. > :31:00.are currently in the hands of the Conservatives.
:31:01. > :31:10.Mr Corbyn's themes on class sizes, the minimum wage, zero hours
:31:11. > :31:13.The queue for selfies afterwards shows that
:31:14. > :31:22.But, even activists struggle to explain why this offer might win
:31:23. > :31:28.Well, you have to get the message out there,
:31:29. > :31:32.you have to understand why they would have voted
:31:33. > :31:34.Conservative last time, I'm not sure why they did.
:31:35. > :31:36.Me personally, I don't understand why that would be.
:31:37. > :31:39.But if you offer policies that people can get behind,
:31:40. > :31:41.like the minimum living wage, free school meals,
:31:42. > :31:47.its policies for all parts of the population of Swindon.
:31:48. > :31:52.The next stop is a children's centre in Bristol North West.
:31:53. > :31:55.To win this seat, it's estimated Labour would need a national lead
:31:56. > :32:07.To put that into context, there currently about 20 points behind.
:32:08. > :32:20.Fitting then that the book Mr Corbyn is reading
:32:21. > :32:23.It's all about overcoming a series of seemingly
:32:24. > :32:27.Mr Corbyn doesn't need to wade through swishy grass or deep mud,
:32:28. > :32:29.but he does have some formidable obstacles to negotiate.
:32:30. > :32:32.In order for him to have the same slim majority that Theresa May
:32:33. > :32:36.enjoys today, he'd need to win 100 seats.
:32:37. > :32:44.And if we look at who has those 100 most winnable seats
:32:45. > :32:46.for Labour Right now, one is Green, two Plaid Cymru,
:32:47. > :32:49.three Lib Dem, nine are SNP, but a whopping 85 are currently
:32:50. > :32:56.How can you convince people who voted Conservative in seats
:32:57. > :32:58.like this to vote Labour when Ed Miliband couldn't
:32:59. > :33:06.Well, we represent what are really very core values of this country.
:33:07. > :33:07.Justice, fairness, equality, equality of
:33:08. > :33:12.A health service that works for all, education service
:33:13. > :33:20.Not having to rely on collections to run schools.
:33:21. > :33:24.The final event of the day is an open air speech
:33:25. > :33:30.in Cardiff North, a seat again that the Conservatives currently
:33:31. > :33:32.hold and one that Labour hasn't won since 2005.
:33:33. > :33:35.Although, it's not a bad size crowd for almost no notice
:33:36. > :33:37.on a Friday afternoon, building real support,
:33:38. > :33:40.enough to take a seat like this, is going to be a big
:33:41. > :33:51.For some local residents, a visit from Mr Corbyn is more a curiosity
:33:52. > :33:57.than an attraction. Do you think he is someone that can connect with
:33:58. > :34:06.conservative voters? No way, no. Why not? I just don't think he has the
:34:07. > :34:12.right ideas, to be honest. I think he's too far to the left. It's true,
:34:13. > :34:15.Labour did win this seat in the Welsh Assembly election last year,
:34:16. > :34:19.but Jeremy Corbyn certainly didn't have a starring role in that
:34:20. > :34:23.campaign. Every election is difficult, you never take anything
:34:24. > :34:26.for granted. There's a lot of work to do between now and the general
:34:27. > :34:30.election. I'd said there's a mountain to climb that mountain is
:34:31. > :34:37.can be climbed and today is the start of that journey Jeremy Corbyn!
:34:38. > :34:39.Winning Conservative seat is a huge challenge, particularly since the
:34:40. > :34:43.polls suggest Labour could struggle to hang onto many of the seats it
:34:44. > :34:47.already holds. Tomorrow Jeremy Corbyn is due to start Labour's
:34:48. > :34:49.defensive campaign in Labour seats in the north-west of England.
:34:50. > :34:52.While Jeremy Corbyn was wooing the crowds in Cardiff,
:34:53. > :34:54.Theresa May kicked off her campaign trail in Maidenhead -
:34:55. > :35:04.The Prime Minister put a marker, of sorts, down too today -
:35:05. > :35:06.attempting to snuff out speculation over the government's commitment
:35:07. > :35:13.It will remain at 0.7% of national income -
:35:14. > :35:23.to be spent, in her words "in the most effective way".
:35:24. > :35:28.Tonight Philip Hammond has hinted he wants to scrap the Conservative
:35:29. > :35:31.Party does not promise not to raise taxes, so how much will be
:35:32. > :35:36.non-Brexit issues shape her campaign?
:35:37. > :35:38.Joining me now is David Aaranovitch, columnist for The Times.
:35:39. > :35:39.Ava Vidal, Comediand and Commentator.
:35:40. > :35:42.Tom Newwton-Dunn, political Editor for The Sun.
:35:43. > :35:48.Good evening. Welcome to you all. Quite interesting to start off with
:35:49. > :35:53.some of the reaction of the front pages we are going to see tomorrow.
:35:54. > :36:00.The Financial Times has said, fears of a Philip Hammond tax bombshell.
:36:01. > :36:03.The sun, the headline, pay and this may. Tories ready to hit the white
:36:04. > :36:10.van man. The Daily Mirror is saying the Tories' VAT bombshell, picking
:36:11. > :36:15.up on Philip Hammond saying he will drop this pledge not to hike taxes.
:36:16. > :36:20.What you make of this reaction? I think it's a perfectly natural one
:36:21. > :36:23.for newspaper editors to look at some big policy announcements today
:36:24. > :36:27.from Philip Hammond and Theresa May. Philip Hammond saying we're going to
:36:28. > :36:32.rip up that promise we made only two years ago to not raise all these big
:36:33. > :36:35.taxes and we may end up raising these taxes. And also potentially
:36:36. > :36:40.dropping the triple lock on pensions, which means pensions may
:36:41. > :36:41.go down. They are seismic, great events and they deserve their place
:36:42. > :36:57.on the front pages. He hasn't quite said he will rip it up. He
:36:58. > :36:59.says he is concerned about certain taxes restraining the ability of the
:37:00. > :37:02.government to manage the economy properly. I think most people's
:37:03. > :37:04.language that means rip it up. I'm astounded. I didn't expect the
:37:05. > :37:07.papers to take this turn so quickly. They were pretty much all supporting
:37:08. > :37:11.Theresa May and conservatives. At 1.I was really despairing, is there
:37:12. > :37:15.anything these people can do they will not gloss over? It's
:37:16. > :37:21.interesting. How significant is it, the reaction to Philip Hammond and
:37:22. > :37:25.their foreign aid budget so early on? The front page of The Times
:37:26. > :37:30.carries a story saying it Donald Trump will give the EU preference of
:37:31. > :37:34.the trade deal. I regard these things as minor players in what is
:37:35. > :37:39.actually all should be the major issue of the election. You're
:37:40. > :37:42.saying... Get out the way early. The foreign aid one is quite
:37:43. > :37:47.interesting. One of the questions you ask is, who is Theresa May? Is
:37:48. > :37:50.she looked small-town Conservative who wants to keep foreigners out and
:37:51. > :37:55.not pay foreign innate because sometime she seems a bit like that?
:37:56. > :37:59.Or a globalising big business conservative, like Philip Hammond
:38:00. > :38:02.would be, in which case you want to think about your responsibilities
:38:03. > :38:07.and foreign aid is a big part of that. Tim Montgomery, the
:38:08. > :38:11.Conservative blogger said today that actually he believed he knew that
:38:12. > :38:16.Ruth Davidson, the Tory leader in Scotland, was a major influence on
:38:17. > :38:20.Theresa May in keeping the 0.7%. But think about the Bill Gates speech
:38:21. > :38:25.yesterday. Now tell me that Bill Gates didn't know that Theresa May
:38:26. > :38:29.was going to do this in other words, she didn't take the decision, I
:38:30. > :38:33.think, because Bill Gates made the speech. He made the speech to give
:38:34. > :38:38.emphasis to the position she was about to announce. I would say
:38:39. > :38:44.that's possibly a conspiracy to Fat. It's not a conspiracy. It is if you
:38:45. > :38:47.don't believe it. Theresa May cancelled a meeting with Bill Gates
:38:48. > :38:53.the day before yesterday, which was a pretty good idea. An 0.7%, the
:38:54. > :38:59.devil is in the detail. I have a sneaking suspicion that this one
:39:00. > :39:03.isn't quite over yet. 0.7% is only 0.7% if you go with the OECD
:39:04. > :39:05.definition of precisely what you give to hoops. I think the
:39:06. > :39:11.government will blurring this. So they will be keeping about more
:39:12. > :39:15.money might go towards the Hebrides. Let's talk about domestic policy,
:39:16. > :39:21.these policy statements or pledges and what they mean to the shape of
:39:22. > :39:25.the election. Up until maybe now, it was considered a Brexit election. Is
:39:26. > :39:30.that fair? Is it changing? That's what they were trying to make us
:39:31. > :39:33.believe, a Brexit election while sneaking things under the table. I
:39:34. > :39:41.think it's good people are noticing, going hold on a second. I think
:39:42. > :39:44.there will be a U-turn. A U-turn? On the 0.7, I don't think they will go
:39:45. > :39:48.through with it. Once they've seen a reaction like this, I don't think
:39:49. > :39:53.the Tories will go through with it. They can't afford to be alienating
:39:54. > :39:58.their room base. Can Theresa May afford to do such a U-turn? I would
:39:59. > :40:02.say she can. Not only does she have to shore up centrist support and so
:40:03. > :40:07.on, she doesn't also necessarily want to seem like a complete right
:40:08. > :40:11.winger. Seeing as Ukip has almost collapsed, there isn't a great
:40:12. > :40:15.threat after her right. The big threat all the parties face...
:40:16. > :40:20.Jeremy Corbyn apart, the Tories face is low turnout. That's really the
:40:21. > :40:24.big problem. It might come later, the question of expectation of
:40:25. > :40:25.result. It might seem early at the beginning of the seven-week
:40:26. > :40:49.campaign, but we can do that. I returned to
:40:50. > :40:51.the point, all of this is kind of little bits of nit-picking detail.
:40:52. > :40:54.That's what happens in an election campaign. It is if you concentrate
:40:55. > :40:57.on it. The biggest question is if we as media focus down on the thing
:40:58. > :40:59.that really matters, which is what her negotiating position is going to
:41:00. > :41:02.be on Europe. How much money we have for everything. I want to focus on
:41:03. > :41:04.the UK election at the moment. I mentioned Len McCluskey being
:41:05. > :41:07.re-elected for the Unite union. How significant is that for him, in
:41:08. > :41:09.terms of his standing? Supported by the party but not reflected in the
:41:10. > :41:12.electorate yet? Know and I don't think it won't have any effect on
:41:13. > :41:16.the election itself, because Unite were always going to be funding the
:41:17. > :41:25.Labour Party, whoever was in charge. It gives him a confidence boost.
:41:26. > :41:27.There are certain big theories among Labour MPs that even if Jeremy
:41:28. > :41:30.Corbyn loses this general election, as it looks like he might, he will
:41:31. > :41:34.stay on. Getting Jeremy Corbyn out of that job, even if he presides
:41:35. > :41:39.over a catastrophic Labour Party might be very hard. It will be even
:41:40. > :41:44.harder with Len McCluskey in charge of Unite. Kenny Darragh? Can Jeremy
:41:45. > :41:48.win? I've been doorstepping and talking to people. I think there
:41:49. > :41:52.will be more of an upset than people think. They are saying Jeremy is a
:41:53. > :41:56.useless, can't win, he has no support. I've been on the road with
:41:57. > :42:02.him, I've seen people's reaction to him. He's getting people interested
:42:03. > :42:05.in politics who were not. I think it's so important for the Labour
:42:06. > :42:09.Party to pull together and stop this infighting. When you actually speak
:42:10. > :42:14.to people, that is the thing putting people off Labour. The other problem
:42:15. > :42:17.the Labour Party might have is a lot of Labour supporters are pro-Remain
:42:18. > :42:22.and very disappointed. I've been speaking to some people who say, we
:42:23. > :42:26.have no choice, we will have to go to the Liberal Democrats, which is
:42:27. > :42:30.ridiculous. It's like going back to cheating boyfriend. The last time
:42:31. > :42:36.they campaigned on student fees and completely turned around. Does this
:42:37. > :42:41.front-page mean the sun is backing Jeremy Corbyn? That might be
:42:42. > :42:43.premature conclusion. Ask the editor but I think it's unlikely. Thank you
:42:44. > :42:48.all for joining us. Now, before we finish, 70 years ago,
:42:49. > :42:51.the Italian writer and Holocaust survivor Primo Levvy published
:42:52. > :42:54."If This is a Man" - a memoir To mark the anniversary,
:42:55. > :43:00.Philippe Sands and AL Kennedy, in collaboration
:43:01. > :43:01.with the Southbank Centre, have curated a special event,
:43:02. > :43:04.to be held a week on Sunday at the Royal Festival Hall,
:43:05. > :43:07.featuring readings from the book. The actor Samuel West will take
:43:08. > :43:10.part, and he's here tonight to read You who find, returning
:43:11. > :43:21.in the evening, May your children turn
:43:22. > :44:42.their faces from you. Hello. We had seen is in very cold
:44:43. > :44:44.air across Europe this week and we are in for a