:00:00. > :00:08.Tough on Marine Le Pen, so can he now be tough
:00:09. > :00:17.Here in France, they have a fresh start, but a lot of stale
:00:18. > :00:22.Much hope rests on President Macron succeeding in reform where previous
:00:23. > :00:29.It's the last bullet of the pro-globalisation forces.
:00:30. > :00:31.If it succeeds, both anti-system voting will decrease,
:00:32. > :00:34.the xenophobic one, Marine Le Pen, and the alter-globalisation
:00:35. > :00:41.But if it doesn't succeed, then the question will only be
:00:42. > :00:45.which anti-system voting will overthrow the system.
:00:46. > :00:48.And I hear from this former Socialist candidate for president
:00:49. > :00:56.And does that mean the centre now back in vogue?
:00:57. > :00:59.What does Macron's success mean for political movements outside France?
:01:00. > :01:03.In particular, what are the lessons for the British Labour Party?
:01:04. > :01:13.And we're joined by the poet, Kate Tempest.
:01:14. > :01:20.Carcinogenic, epileptic, post-traumatic, bipolar and
:01:21. > :01:26.disaffected. Atomised, thinking we're engaged, staring at the screen
:01:27. > :01:36.so we don't have to see the planet diet.
:01:37. > :01:39.Hello, welcome back to Paris, at the end of the long 2017 French
:01:40. > :01:43.And at the start of a new phase in modern French political history.
:01:44. > :01:46.Emmanuel Macron is obviously a big deal for this country,
:01:47. > :01:48.a fresh face, a reformer, he's leading a new party
:01:49. > :01:53.But he is also now an important player in the world.
:01:54. > :01:56.His bigger than expected win is a tonic for depressed liberal
:01:57. > :02:04.The opposite of Trump, he's a man who didn't shy away
:02:05. > :02:06.from his pro-European views, his desire to keep the border open,
:02:07. > :02:09.his belief in trade, his adherence to a tolerant, open society.
:02:10. > :02:12.Unlike some others, he beat the far right by taking on its arguments,
:02:13. > :02:25.For the Front National, a very disappointing night indeed,
:02:26. > :02:27.the task of detoxifying the brand, barely half complete.
:02:28. > :02:29.This video of Marine Le Pen dancing away her disappointment last night,
:02:30. > :02:34.was perhaps the first step towards trying to soften the image.
:02:35. > :02:38.As for Macron, his party is his creation, a political
:02:39. > :02:41.start-up that has reached a sky-high valuation in no time.
:02:42. > :02:45.But he has yet to actually deliver a working product.
:02:46. > :02:59.The election night rally, where supporters dare to dream
:03:00. > :03:03.and their expectations are elevated, even if they're all a bit
:03:04. > :03:12.But does Macron have a real plan to change France?
:03:13. > :03:15.We don't know about the future or the exact plans, but I know
:03:16. > :03:18.that this is the first election where I'm voting for a candidate
:03:19. > :03:23.It's really good news for France and Europe.
:03:24. > :03:32.Oh, my God, don't ask me that kind of question.
:03:33. > :03:35.The morning after, 25 miles away from those celebrations,
:03:36. > :03:38.this is where the work needs to get going, one of those bits
:03:39. > :03:42.of Paris that knows what deindustrialisation is.
:03:43. > :03:46.This park overlooks an old Peugeot factory.
:03:47. > :03:51.What everybody says that Macron's problem is the parliament,
:03:52. > :03:55.the National Assembly, that he has to get a majority
:03:56. > :04:01.And that is undoubtedly true, but that's just the half of it,
:04:02. > :04:04.because the real problem is to come up with ideas, with policies that
:04:05. > :04:08.are actually going to work, that are going to deliver economic
:04:09. > :04:11.life to parts of the country that have had it difficult
:04:12. > :04:14.in the last few decades, and to do so on a timescale that
:04:15. > :04:20.matches people's current impatience for change.
:04:21. > :04:22.This is Aulnay-sous-Bois, where the left-wing populist
:04:23. > :04:27.Jean-Luc Melenchon has a high level of support.
:04:28. > :04:34.This couple seem to encapsulate the division France faces.
:04:35. > :04:37.TRANSLATION: We don't share the same views of Macron.
:04:38. > :04:41.It will be very tough for the poorest people.
:04:42. > :04:46.There will be new decrees in the summer that will hurt them.
:04:47. > :04:48.TRANSLATION: But he's aware of new technology, of the changes
:04:49. > :04:52.He knows about young people, social networks and what all that
:04:53. > :04:59.I think his problems will start very soon.
:05:00. > :05:02.I know people who voted for Melenchon who will be
:05:03. > :05:08.He voted Front National, mainly because they're
:05:09. > :05:14.tough on crime and drugs, but also on economic grounds.
:05:15. > :05:18.Do you think Macron can deliver change?
:05:19. > :05:25.To change the situation, he needs 20 or 30 years.
:05:26. > :05:33.Today, Macron met Francois Hollande at VE Day commemorations.
:05:34. > :05:35.Hollande was one who tried to change the country,
:05:36. > :05:41.but stalled in the face of the famous French resistance.
:05:42. > :05:44.The guy is so determined, and our institutions
:05:45. > :05:46.give him the opportunity to implement his agenda whatever it
:05:47. > :05:50.takes, but it means we have a really high risk of political turmoil
:05:51. > :05:57.You can't overestimate how important this is for the future of the EU
:05:58. > :06:03.It's the last bullet of the pro-globalisation forces.
:06:04. > :06:07.If it succeeds, both anti-system votes will decrease,
:06:08. > :06:10.the xenophobic one, Marine Le Pen, and the alter-globalisation
:06:11. > :06:16.But if it doesn't succeed, then the question will only be
:06:17. > :06:20.which anti-system voting will overthrow the system.
:06:21. > :06:22.The French have often had a tendency to deride
:06:23. > :06:25.Anglo-Saxon economics, but here they are, they've
:06:26. > :06:29.elected someone who's cut of rather Anglo-Saxon cloth.
:06:30. > :06:32.Some would say that's just as Britain is moving
:06:33. > :06:34.in the opposite direction, but it means that Macron talks
:06:35. > :06:39.about labour market flexibility, reforming the European Union.
:06:40. > :06:41.He talks about technology and start-ups, business
:06:42. > :06:45.and enterprise, all the stuff that we've heard about.
:06:46. > :06:50.If defeating populism is your game, that particular
:06:51. > :06:54.combination of measures, well, it hasn't been
:06:55. > :06:59.altogether successful in the Anglo-Saxon countries.
:07:00. > :07:02.At least Monsieur Macron understands the task at hand,
:07:03. > :07:05.with words for those who voted for his rival.
:07:06. > :07:12.TRANSLATION: Don't whistle, don't heckle.
:07:13. > :07:20.They express anger, confusion, and sometimes conviction.
:07:21. > :07:23.But I will do all I can during the next five years to ensure
:07:24. > :07:28.there will no longer be a need to vote for extremes.
:07:29. > :07:32.At times, he looked nervous last night, and well he might be.
:07:33. > :07:35.His crowd may party, but winning a battle
:07:36. > :07:38.against Marine Le Pen is not the same as winning the war.
:07:39. > :07:41.His task is immense, to solve the problems that draw
:07:42. > :07:51.It's interesting to ask statistically, what proportion
:07:52. > :07:54.of great new hopes end in disappointment.
:07:55. > :07:57.And will Mr Macron nudge those stats one way or the other?
:07:58. > :08:04.Whatever the outcome, for now, the French have
:08:05. > :08:06.leapfrogged everybody else in reconfiguring their politics.
:08:07. > :08:07.Humiliating old parties, welcoming the new.
:08:08. > :08:10.For the left this has been a humiliating election;
:08:11. > :08:12.so earlier today I sat down with Segolene Royal,
:08:13. > :08:21.who was the socialist candidate for President ten years ago.
:08:22. > :08:26.She's currently a government minister, one of the biggest figures
:08:27. > :08:28.in French politics on the left. I asked if she was happy about the
:08:29. > :08:31.victory of Macron. TRANSLATION: Yes, I'm very happy
:08:32. > :08:33.firstly because he's a very young president and a sign of especially
:08:34. > :08:36.for the young generation, and secondly because he's widened
:08:37. > :08:43.the gap with the far right. Did you vote for him
:08:44. > :08:45.in the first round? You voted for him
:08:46. > :08:47.in the second round. And you didn't vote
:08:48. > :08:50.for your Socialist No, but I didn't harm
:08:51. > :08:54.the Socialist candidate. Some people publicly endorsed
:08:55. > :09:01.Emmanuel Macron for the first round, but I didn't
:09:02. > :09:04.want to because it's not for me to denigrate
:09:05. > :09:10.the Socialist candidate. That's why I waited until the second
:09:11. > :09:14.round to say anything. I must ask you about the left
:09:15. > :09:17.in politics in France, in much of the world,
:09:18. > :09:19.because we are in a state We have Melenchon,
:09:20. > :09:40.anti-Europe left, he was more disposed to
:09:41. > :09:42.Europe and his left. Can the left carry on functioning
:09:43. > :09:45.with all these different views towards globalisation
:09:46. > :09:46.and all this confusion? Yes, there is confusion
:09:47. > :09:48.because the traditional parties are breaking apart and thing
:09:49. > :09:55.on the right. You've got the far right,
:09:56. > :09:57.the nationalist right, the pro-Liberal right
:09:58. > :09:58.and the centre-right And the same thing is happening
:09:59. > :10:07.on the left and the right, So do you think France
:10:08. > :10:13.is in the middle now of a major The French people voted
:10:14. > :10:20.for the centre, but the extreme parties have become more radicalised
:10:21. > :10:22.with a very powerful So we need to be very careful
:10:23. > :10:30.about how the country is governed, because people need to feel included
:10:31. > :10:34.in a new economic, social and environmental model so we have
:10:35. > :10:44.consensus around projects and ideas. You've got elections
:10:45. > :10:46.coming up in June. What is going to happen
:10:47. > :10:48.in those elections? Are the parties going to work
:10:49. > :10:52.together after the election to support the new president
:10:53. > :10:56.if he doesn't have a majority We will see next week,
:10:57. > :11:06.when the candidates are known. Of course Emmanuel Macron wants
:11:07. > :11:08.a majority in parliament, but other politicians
:11:09. > :11:12.are considering the option of the Socialist Party
:11:13. > :11:15.and En Marche!, and the Republicans We don't know whether the president
:11:16. > :11:28.will have a majority, so we will just have to see how it
:11:29. > :11:31.all works out. Do you think he can really make
:11:32. > :11:34.the French fall in love The French have never
:11:35. > :11:37.loved this, have they? Can he persuade the French
:11:38. > :11:39.that this is for them? The British have taken
:11:40. > :11:43.it for decades, but do you think the French
:11:44. > :11:45.can become like that, Take the Paris climate
:11:46. > :11:49.change conference. People finally understood
:11:50. > :11:51.the globalised nature The French people realise that
:11:52. > :11:59.globalisation can offer economic advantages and innovation,
:12:00. > :12:01.but as in the United Kingdom, there are plenty of people suffering
:12:02. > :12:04.from the effects of globalisation through immigration and low wages
:12:05. > :12:09.because of competition, and there are silent pockets of such
:12:10. > :12:12.people in the United Kingdom as well who are living in poverty due
:12:13. > :12:19.to poorly implemented globalisation. So it's not so much a question
:12:20. > :12:22.of being for or against it, but what type of globalisation
:12:23. > :12:24.is good for a country. Look at the UK local
:12:25. > :12:35.elections last week, and you see evidence that
:12:36. > :12:38.Theresa May saw off Ukip in her way, by talking enough of their language
:12:39. > :12:41.to appeal to Ukip voters. Mr Corbyn has responded
:12:42. > :12:43.to populism too, taking on some Macron has gone about it very
:12:44. > :12:49.differently to either Not for the first time,
:12:50. > :12:55.whatever happens in the UK election, Britain and France will be
:12:56. > :12:57.following different paths. Some have called Emmanuel Macron
:12:58. > :13:06.the Accidental President, the man who emerged from the morass
:13:07. > :13:09.of unelectable candidates from the traditional right
:13:10. > :13:12.and the socialist left. The staunch globalist,
:13:13. > :13:15.staunch Europhile, must address the concerns of all those who wanted
:13:16. > :13:18.the very opposite from So how will he chose
:13:19. > :13:23.to redefine the centre left? Joining me now Chuka Umunna,
:13:24. > :13:27.who knows Emmaneual Macron personally, and Aditya Chakrobortty,
:13:28. > :13:45.who writes on Jeremy Corbyn Chuka, you talked to him when he
:13:46. > :13:50.first said he was going to run. I just want to get inside that
:13:51. > :13:53.conversation. Did it sound like he had a chance? Well, I don't want to
:13:54. > :13:56.betray confidences, but they have obviously got a different
:13:57. > :14:01.constitution there. So if you are going to start something fresh like
:14:02. > :14:04.En Marche!, it is possible under the French constitution, a presidential
:14:05. > :14:08.system. If you were to try to do something like that here, aside from
:14:09. > :14:11.whether that is desirable, I am not sure our constitution allows for it.
:14:12. > :14:16.But he also tapped into something which is felt as much in France as
:14:17. > :14:19.it is here. If you go to Prime Minister's Questions in France, it
:14:20. > :14:24.is not so different to ours, very adversarial, very tribal. And I
:14:25. > :14:30.think that switch is a lot of people off. Emmanuel Macron has sought to
:14:31. > :14:34.go, I haven't got time for all this nonsense where we just oppose each
:14:35. > :14:38.other for the sake of it. What do we need to do to get things done? And
:14:39. > :14:45.there is something incredibly appealing about that message. Surely
:14:46. > :14:52.every politician says we need to get things done. It is more moving
:14:53. > :15:00.beyond the kind of Labour- Tory, left-right thing. I have spent my
:15:01. > :15:02.entire adult life listening to politicians who keep likening
:15:03. > :15:07.themselves to being chief executives or business people, but somehow just
:15:08. > :15:13.get into politics by accident. I don't think we want that in Britain.
:15:14. > :15:16.But I was asked, what is Emmanuel Macron like? I agree with you. Being
:15:17. > :15:22.in government is not like being a CEO. But the truth is, what he has
:15:23. > :15:26.done successfully is pretend that there was no party connected to him.
:15:27. > :15:31.We know he was with Hollande's party for the last few years so in a funny
:15:32. > :15:35.way, it is a con. Trump did the same thing, pretend you're not part of a
:15:36. > :15:39.party. Is that what people need to see, a politician who seems detached
:15:40. > :15:45.from whatever they think is a traditional party? Steady on.
:15:46. > :15:50.Firstly, given a choice as a French voter between a fascist, Marine Le
:15:51. > :15:54.Pen, and Macron, you would go from Macron. If you think of it in the
:15:55. > :15:59.context of our own left, even a telegenic 39-year-old man who talks
:16:00. > :16:04.a good talk, if you picked him even against someone of the great sexual
:16:05. > :16:08.magnetism of Simon Danczuk, you would go from Macron, right? The
:16:09. > :16:13.problem is that he is offering a kind of reheated centrism which has
:16:14. > :16:21.failed. And in the context of British politics, what we have now
:16:22. > :16:28.is Theresa May, who keeps flirting with Ukip. And you have Jeremy
:16:29. > :16:37.Corbyn. Is right that anyone standing against Marine Le Pen in
:16:38. > :16:41.the second round would have won? Not necessarily. But what I want to say
:16:42. > :16:47.is, could we have a Macron situation here? Could some bright young spark,
:16:48. > :16:50.somebody who once considered standing for the leadership, go off
:16:51. > :16:55.and become the Macron of the British Labour Party? The context here is
:16:56. > :17:00.very different. If you look at the basic method, married together
:17:01. > :17:05.economic competence and social justice and a desire to just get
:17:06. > :17:08.things done, that was very much it. If people believe centrism is
:17:09. > :17:12.something, that is what it is seen as. In some respects, there are lots
:17:13. > :17:19.of things he wants to do that Labour people would feel unpottable with,
:17:20. > :17:22.like investing in infrastructure and entrepreneurship -- things that
:17:23. > :17:27.Labour people would feel comfortable with. But the other part of the
:17:28. > :17:31.equation, where it is different is that he wants to cut 120,000 people
:17:32. > :17:35.from the public sector in France. Their public sector is different to
:17:36. > :17:38.ours and we wouldn't want to do that here. He also wants to further
:17:39. > :17:42.liberalise their employment laws. We wouldn't want to do that here,
:17:43. > :17:47.partly because it's a different context. The point is that if you
:17:48. > :17:53.take Jeremy Corbyn, he is asking the right questions for our time. He is
:17:54. > :17:58.looking at the unions and the grassroots and questions of fairness
:17:59. > :18:06.and inequality. Jeremy? Yes. I agree. Then why is there a struggle
:18:07. > :18:09.within Labour over the way he is asking these questions? If everyone
:18:10. > :18:14.agrees that we are in a situation where there is too much distrust of
:18:15. > :18:22.old-fashioned policies, is the centre pretty dead here for the
:18:23. > :18:27.left? Totally. Come June the 8th, I dare Chuka to disagree with me on
:18:28. > :18:30.this, Labour will take an absolute pounding. On June the 9th, what you
:18:31. > :18:34.will see across newspaper commentary and within the Labour Party is that
:18:35. > :18:37.this is all the fault of the guy in charge. We need someone a bit more
:18:38. > :18:42.fluent and professional, and that will make things work. Actually, go
:18:43. > :18:45.around the Labour heartlands, I have just come back from south Wales,
:18:46. > :18:50.which Labour used are basically run. They assumed it was theirs. If you
:18:51. > :18:54.look at it now, Wales is perhaps on the verge of voting Conservative for
:18:55. > :19:00.the first time in almost 100 years. And if you look at why that is, all
:19:01. > :19:04.the mechanisms that people used to rely upon as delivering voters to
:19:05. > :19:08.the Labour Party, the unions, the social clubs, the industries, they
:19:09. > :19:13.have all gone. I went to Bridgend, one of the key targets for Tories.
:19:14. > :19:19.Even the Labour social club shut down years ago. So is Jeremy Corbyn
:19:20. > :19:23.right to say, as he did today, that if he doesn't win the election in
:19:24. > :19:28.June, he said, I was elected leader and I will stay as leader. He still
:19:29. > :19:35.believes he is the one who speaks for the masses and he has the right
:19:36. > :19:40.message. Well, let's see what the vote is -- what the result is. No
:19:41. > :19:44.vote has been cast yet. We have to think about the future of the Labour
:19:45. > :19:48.Party. We want to get the Labour Party into government. But I take
:19:49. > :19:52.issue here. What is the centre? I don't upset about that. I want to
:19:53. > :19:56.get the Labour Party back into government. Has touched on something
:19:57. > :19:59.we don't have time to talk about on your programme. The biggest
:20:00. > :20:04.challenge the Labour Party has faced is that the thing that connected it
:20:05. > :20:09.to its communities, which was the trade union movements, mass
:20:10. > :20:15.organised workplaces, that has gone. Aditya, does Labour stick with the
:20:16. > :20:21.left? Centrist politics and economics have killed off Labour
:20:22. > :20:27.heartlands. Why would we vote Labour? If you think you can take
:20:28. > :20:34.South Wales for granted while you go off flirting... But national minimum
:20:35. > :20:43.wage, Sure Start, record investment, that is left. Thank you both very
:20:44. > :20:45.much. We have run out of time. We are going to leave Labour to one
:20:46. > :20:46.side. We know it will say strong
:20:47. > :20:49.and we know it will say stable, but next week we finally get to see
:20:50. > :20:52.what else is inside The big question for Theresa May
:20:53. > :20:56.perhaps is this one, On the back of last week's Local
:20:57. > :21:01.election results the Conservatives could be forgiven for thinking
:21:02. > :21:04.they had a mandate to In a moment, we'll ask
:21:05. > :21:08.about immigration. First, Chris Cook looks
:21:09. > :21:10.at the fundamentals underlying the polling to see what they tell us
:21:11. > :21:14.about the campaign. Pollsters aren't the British
:21:15. > :21:17.public's most trusted source But there are some things we can say
:21:18. > :21:23.about this election campaign The first thing you need
:21:24. > :21:33.to know about this general The Conservative Party called it,
:21:34. > :21:39.and they did so because they expect If you look at recent polling
:21:40. > :21:44.averages, the Tories are on around 43 percentage points,
:21:45. > :21:46.against Labour's 27 That's a 16 percentage point gap,
:21:47. > :21:54.way up from the 7-point lead the Tories had
:21:55. > :22:01.at the 2015 general election. That big Tory lead is being driven
:22:02. > :22:04.by two sorts of movements of voter. First of all, there's been
:22:05. > :22:07.a transfer of Ukip voters So, Ukip won around 13% of the vote
:22:08. > :22:13.at the last general election, And the main beneficiaries of that
:22:14. > :22:19.fall are the Tories. You could spot that at last
:22:20. > :22:22.week's local elections. Take Norfolk, where until last week,
:22:23. > :22:27.there were 40 Tory councillors Second, there's also been
:22:28. > :22:42.a significant shift in people who have moved across to the Tories
:22:43. > :22:44.from other parties. Across the UK, that's
:22:45. > :22:52.around 4% of people. But that flow is most
:22:53. > :22:54.striking in Scotland, where the party's moved from 15%
:22:55. > :22:57.at the last general election A flow that largely came from Labour
:22:58. > :23:02.unionists moving to the Tory party. That Scottish Tory surge comes just
:23:03. > :23:05.as the SNP support has And those two things together mean
:23:06. > :23:16.there are around a dozen Scottish seats where the Tories have
:23:17. > :23:18.to be taken seriously. There's a real complication
:23:19. > :23:23.in reading Scotland, though, There are, for example, two seats
:23:24. > :23:28.where, if the Liberal Democrats can convince Conservative
:23:29. > :23:30.and Labour Unionists to lend them a quarter of their votes,
:23:31. > :23:33.they'll take those seats That tactical voting bloc could be
:23:34. > :23:38.an enormous force multiplier Another voter shift that some people
:23:39. > :23:47.have been expecting is a movement towards the Liberal Democrats,
:23:48. > :23:52.as the only UK-wide But so far, there's not been much
:23:53. > :23:58.evidence of much movement. There was, however, a glimmer
:23:59. > :24:00.of hope for them in last There was some evidence that
:24:01. > :24:06.higher educated areas were turning out more strongly
:24:07. > :24:08.for the Liberal Democrats That's good news for
:24:09. > :24:16.them in some places. It's possible that the Lib Dems
:24:17. > :24:19.might hold onto Richmond Park, which they recently took
:24:20. > :24:21.in a by-election, and perhaps take But several of their seats are also
:24:22. > :24:25.vulnerable to that Tory surge. Norman Lamb, who ran
:24:26. > :24:29.for Lib Dem leader, They might lose Carshalton and
:24:30. > :24:36.Wallington, and Southport as well. And that might be this
:24:37. > :24:39.election in a nutshell, a high Conservative tide that
:24:40. > :24:41.doesn't spare any Well, today, as Ukip vowed to reduce
:24:42. > :24:51.net migration to zero, Theresa May returned
:24:52. > :24:53.to the immigration policy She repeated the Conservative pledge
:24:54. > :24:56.of 2015 which promised, and failed, to reduce net migration
:24:57. > :25:00.to below 100,000. I think it is important
:25:01. > :25:03.that we continue, and we will continue to say that we do
:25:04. > :25:06.want to bring net migration down We believe that is
:25:07. > :25:09.the tens of thousands. And of course, once we leave
:25:10. > :25:23.the European Union, we do And of course, once we leave
:25:24. > :25:26.the European Union, we will have the opportunity to ensure
:25:27. > :25:28.that we have control of our borders here in the UK,
:25:29. > :25:31.because we will be able to establish our rules
:25:32. > :25:33.for people coming from That's a part of the picture
:25:34. > :25:37.we haven't been able to control before, and we will be able
:25:38. > :25:40.to control it. Leaving the EU means
:25:41. > :25:42.that we won't have free movement Or a brazenly political need
:25:43. > :25:49.to talk about achieving it Shortly before coming on air,
:25:50. > :25:52.I spoke to former Tory leader and Welfare Secretary Iain Duncan
:25:53. > :25:54.Smith. I asked him whether getting net
:25:55. > :25:57.migration into the tens of thousands Clearly, I don't know
:25:58. > :26:02.what's in the manifesto. But if the report is correct,
:26:03. > :26:07.then I believe it will be. Because the principle of having
:26:08. > :26:10.a target is that you work towards that over a period of time,
:26:11. > :26:13.and make sure you try You're talking about working
:26:14. > :26:20.towards something, hang on a sec, if this goes in the manifesto,
:26:21. > :26:23.don't the public have the right If you don't have a target,
:26:24. > :26:29.and you don't seek to achieve that target, then what happens is,
:26:30. > :26:32.you lose control of migration. Until we leave the European Union,
:26:33. > :26:34.we have an open door policy with the European Union,
:26:35. > :26:37.and most of that migration, the vast majority of migration
:26:38. > :26:39.from the European Union was low And therefore, controlling that
:26:40. > :26:44.will allow us to get the right balance of high skills that we need,
:26:45. > :26:47.but controlling very much the low skilled migration that was coming
:26:48. > :26:49.into the country unchecked before. You say that that's the real
:26:50. > :26:52.problem, but you know it 160,000 of that is
:26:53. > :27:01.from outside the EU. So under this target,
:27:02. > :27:03.this maintain target, you'd still have double the number
:27:04. > :27:05.that you want. That's from outside the EU,
:27:06. > :27:07.that's got nothing to do Of course, but then you assume
:27:08. > :27:11.straight away that that means In other words, that somehow
:27:12. > :27:17.when you control the European stuff, everything on the other side
:27:18. > :27:19.remains the same. The point about a new migration
:27:20. > :27:22.policy based on work permits with maybe caps involved,
:27:23. > :27:24.means that you control all of the migration
:27:25. > :27:26.in exactly the same way, That gives the Government
:27:27. > :27:30.greater power to be able to control that target,
:27:31. > :27:33.to get it within a set target I believe it is achievable,
:27:34. > :27:42.it was achievable through the '90s and there's no reason why
:27:43. > :27:44.we shouldn't get back to it. If you want to get that
:27:45. > :27:48.down significantly, Will you cut the student
:27:49. > :27:52.numbers and the money Will you cut high-value migrants,
:27:53. > :28:00.NHS staff, the people that fill Now that when we leave
:28:01. > :28:12.the European Union will be able to control the whole of migration,
:28:13. > :28:15.which allows you to have a work permit system that says OK,
:28:16. > :28:17.the low number, high-value areas such as scientists, academics,
:28:18. > :28:19.people who are working in the software industry or even
:28:20. > :28:21.in intercompany transfers in the City, these are the people
:28:22. > :28:25.adding massive value to the economy. The problem was, we had a huge
:28:26. > :28:28.number of low value, low skilled These people, for the most part,
:28:29. > :28:31.were not adding value. If you look at the figures, it shows
:28:32. > :28:35.they claimed more in benefits than they offered up
:28:36. > :28:38.in terms of taxation. The key difference is to get control
:28:39. > :28:41.of the numbers of the low value, and encourage UK business to stop
:28:42. > :28:44.just looking abroad for the easy You're suggesting pretty much
:28:45. > :28:52.then 170,000 scroungers? 170,000 people adding no
:28:53. > :28:56.value to the economy? No, if you look at the figures,
:28:57. > :28:58.and these figures are clear, they were published by the HMRC
:28:59. > :29:05.a few months ago, they showed if you collate this together,
:29:06. > :29:07.that the low skilled end of the migration, which made up
:29:08. > :29:13.the majority of European migration, particularly from elements
:29:14. > :29:15.of eastern Europe, what that amounted to was that they took
:29:16. > :29:17.more in benefits than In the other area where people
:29:18. > :29:22.had high-level skills, they paid above-average taxation
:29:23. > :29:28.and therefore added value. Getting the balance right
:29:29. > :29:30.about what the UK economy needs, while controlling
:29:31. > :29:33.the numbers, is critical. This isn't ending migration,
:29:34. > :29:35.but controlling it. You got the numbers down
:29:36. > :29:37.when the economy was suffering Yes, but the whole point about this
:29:38. > :29:46.is, the growth in the economy cannot We need to change the model,
:29:47. > :29:54.which is what the Prime Minister wants to do with regards
:29:55. > :29:56.to an industrial policy. We need to be able to get British
:29:57. > :30:00.companies to invest more in skilling On far too many occasions,
:30:01. > :30:07.I would come across companies who used to say we can't get anybody
:30:08. > :30:09.to work here. Then you'd find they hadn't even
:30:10. > :30:14.bothered to look for people They had gone straight abroad
:30:15. > :30:18.because they thought it was cheaper. My point is, getting companies
:30:19. > :30:21.to value and recognise the skills in the UK and the skills that
:30:22. > :30:25.are needed, is going to be part of a controlled migration policy
:30:26. > :30:28.that Theresa May is talking about. Could it be that it's not just free
:30:29. > :30:36.movement of people that could end with Brexit,
:30:37. > :30:38.but free movement of parts? The supply chains of the UK's
:30:39. > :30:40.manufacturers, for example, snake all over the continent,
:30:41. > :30:43.where components are routinely sent Now there are concerns that those
:30:44. > :30:48.supply chains could be disrupted after we leave the EU,
:30:49. > :30:52.costing time and of course money. Naga Munchetty has been talking
:30:53. > :30:54.to people in the manufacturing industry about how they're
:30:55. > :30:58.preparing for Brexit. And a warning for any viewers
:30:59. > :31:00.with alysidophobia: this For more than 40 years,
:31:01. > :31:18.the UK has been one of the key links in the EU's supply chain,
:31:19. > :31:20.forging relationships Brexit could be about
:31:21. > :31:28.to break the chain. Manufacturers are wondering how best
:31:29. > :31:30.to maintain crucial trading links So far, they've enjoyed relatively
:31:31. > :31:36.trouble-free trading access with minimal regulation,
:31:37. > :31:38.paperwork and of course, As it seems more and more likely
:31:39. > :31:44.that Brexit will take the EU out of the customs union and the single
:31:45. > :31:48.market, a common fear is that trade will become more costly when the UK
:31:49. > :31:57.becomes the missing link. Manufacturing accounts
:31:58. > :31:59.for 45% of UK exports, Grainger Worrall was set
:32:00. > :32:11.up in 1946 as a family business in Bridgnorth,
:32:12. > :32:15.Shropshire. It makes engine blocks
:32:16. > :32:17.and prototypes for the auto industry, from Formula 1
:32:18. > :32:19.to well-known car-makers It's established a reliable supply
:32:20. > :32:23.chain, which could be shaken It's really important for us
:32:24. > :32:32.that we can move parts quickly Three brothers, the third generation
:32:33. > :32:42.of the family now at the wheel. They employ more than 600 people,
:32:43. > :32:45.with an annual turnover of more than ?50 million,
:32:46. > :32:47.supplying up to 100 Looking at those partners, they're
:32:48. > :32:53.questioning what's going to happen, what could be the challenges we'll
:32:54. > :32:56.face going forward, Making one of the company's engine
:32:57. > :33:00.blocks typically involves it going on a whirlwind trip around
:33:01. > :33:03.Europe as it undergoes various It starts life being cast
:33:04. > :33:11.at the facility in Bridgnorth and after five days,
:33:12. > :33:13.makes its first journey to Italy, where the initial machining
:33:14. > :33:19.of the block takes another five. From there, it's sent to Germany
:33:20. > :33:23.to spend four days being coated. Then it's back to Italy for final
:33:24. > :33:25.machining and assembly, Once more to Germany
:33:26. > :33:31.for three days of honing, before returning to the UK for two
:33:32. > :33:33.days for cleaning Then the finished engine block
:33:34. > :33:38.is delivered to the vehicle manufacturer's plant in France,
:33:39. > :33:40.a journey of around 30 working days How could Brexit affect the supply
:33:41. > :33:52.chain for Grainger Worrall? The cost impact and the knock-on
:33:53. > :33:54.effect, our customers really wouldn't be very pleased if we did
:33:55. > :33:59.delay them an extra half week. Half a week is not a long time,
:34:00. > :34:02.but it sounds as if time If we delay a week here or a few
:34:03. > :34:08.days here, it will start to put They would be looking to see
:34:09. > :34:15.whether they can get those services, or develop suppliers that can do
:34:16. > :34:21.those services within the EU family, And for us to have something
:34:22. > :34:32.that's not going to add value in that chain,
:34:33. > :34:34.ie sitting at border control or waiting for bureaucratic
:34:35. > :34:36.paperwork to be completed There's no time or space for a
:34:37. > :34:48.stop-start system in manufacturing. But businesses may not be able
:34:49. > :34:51.to avoid being dragged If you are importing a product
:34:52. > :34:58.and then exporting it back to the country of origin as part
:34:59. > :35:02.of an assembly, you will need a process for dealing
:35:03. > :35:05.with all of that to make sure that Some companies will have
:35:06. > :35:11.that, but lots won't. Anyone who doesn't do that
:35:12. > :35:14.who thinks that they can muddle on with business as usual,
:35:15. > :35:19.I think will be at a disadvantage. One such company which is assessing
:35:20. > :35:23.how it may have to restructure its business post-Brexit is Magal
:35:24. > :35:27.Engineering. It supplies engine parts
:35:28. > :35:29.for car-makers across the world. It has two plants in the UK,
:35:30. > :35:32.as well as ones in France, Turkey, India, China
:35:33. > :35:38.and an office in Germany. This factory in Reading,
:35:39. > :35:40.Berkshire, imports and exports In order to make this part
:35:41. > :35:46.which controls the temperature of a car and its engine,
:35:47. > :35:48.components are brought So we've got plastic granules
:35:49. > :35:55.filled with glass fibre. We've got a sensor that
:35:56. > :36:00.comes from Germany. We've got copper that
:36:01. > :36:03.comes from France. Then we completely assemble
:36:04. > :36:06.that here, and it goes Again, going with
:36:07. > :36:12.the flow is essential. Founder Gamil says he has
:36:13. > :36:14.capital to spare, ideally However, he may be forced to spend
:36:15. > :36:20.it on swapping which factories produce which goods in order
:36:21. > :36:26.to avoid any onerous tariffs. At the moment, we're
:36:27. > :36:28.importing things from France. But with a lot of things that go
:36:29. > :36:33.from here to France, we will make there or Germany,
:36:34. > :36:36.we will have to make outside of the UK and they will go
:36:37. > :36:39.to France, where we have This is obviously not
:36:40. > :36:42.something that I want to do, because I want to invest in growth
:36:43. > :36:46.and not invest in capital just because I need to move
:36:47. > :36:50.something for tax purposes. There will be pressure to localise
:36:51. > :36:54.more and to do less cross-border transactions and so on,
:36:55. > :36:56.simply in order to maintain cost competitiveness and to keep
:36:57. > :37:02.the supply chain intact. I think it's going to be a headache
:37:03. > :37:07.for a large number of manufacturers. So why not use Brexit to dump
:37:08. > :37:10.existing supply chains and set up A lot of what you might call
:37:11. > :37:17.vocational skills that are required in mechanical engineering
:37:18. > :37:19.and electrical engineering, we just haven't trained
:37:20. > :37:21.enough of those people. Without skilled workers,
:37:22. > :37:25.it will take much longer than the next two years to build
:37:26. > :37:27.a self-sufficient Quite honestly, the skills gap
:37:28. > :37:35.in the UK, I don't know whether it could deliver all the requirements
:37:36. > :37:38.that we want. More time is wanted by the body
:37:39. > :37:47.which represents manufacturers. It says two years isn't enough
:37:48. > :37:50.to ensure a smooth exit and at least five years of transition is needed
:37:51. > :37:53.before we break The cliff edge, in my view,
:37:54. > :38:00.could bring a significant risk of a serious dip in our trade
:38:01. > :38:09.and our output, and with it our GDP. The next two years need to be used
:38:10. > :38:12.to maintain strong relationships with the EU while reaffirming
:38:13. > :38:15.the UK's reputation for being This motorsport culture we have
:38:16. > :38:25.is a can-do culture. You're presented with
:38:26. > :38:27.a problem and in motorsport, here is the problem,
:38:28. > :38:30.the answer is yes and then you Manufacturers recognise
:38:31. > :38:39.that the shape of the supply chain will change, although with strong
:38:40. > :38:42.links already forged, it's hoped that the system
:38:43. > :38:44.will remain joined up We leave you with the acclaimed poet
:38:45. > :38:58.Kate Tempest, who's guest director at this year's Brighton Festival,
:38:59. > :39:01.which opened its doors on Saturday. Here she is with a work
:39:02. > :39:03.entitled Tunnel Vision. You can't face the past,
:39:04. > :39:13.the past's a dark place Can't sleep, can't wake,
:39:14. > :39:17.sitting in our boxes Notching up our victories
:39:18. > :39:21.as other people's losses Another day, another chance
:39:22. > :39:25.to turn our face away from pain Let's get a takeaway, I'll meet
:39:26. > :39:28.you in the pub a little later, When we gonna see that
:39:29. > :39:36.life is happening? And that every single body bleeding
:39:37. > :39:40.on its knees is an abomination And every natural being
:39:41. > :39:43.is making communication And we're just sparks,
:39:44. > :39:49.tiny parts of a bigger constellation We're minuscule molecules
:39:50. > :39:54.that make up one body You see the tragedy and pain
:39:55. > :39:58.of a person that you've never met Is present in your nightmares,
:39:59. > :40:02.in your pull towards despair And the sickness of the culture,
:40:03. > :40:07.and the sickness in our hearts Is a sickness that's inflicted
:40:08. > :40:12.by this distance that we share Now, it was our bombs
:40:13. > :40:15.that started this war And now it rages far away so we
:40:16. > :40:19.dismiss all its victims as strangers But they're parents and children
:40:20. > :40:24.made dogs by the danger Existence is futile,
:40:25. > :40:28.so we don't engage But it was our boats that sailed,
:40:29. > :40:34.killed, stole, and made frail It was our boots that stamped
:40:35. > :40:38.It was our courts that jailed Looked back down at our nails
:40:39. > :40:48.and our wedding plans In the face of a full-force
:40:49. > :40:50.gale, we said: "Well, it's not up to us to make
:40:51. > :40:53.this place a better land It's not up to us to make this
:40:54. > :40:56.place a better land." Justice, justice,
:40:57. > :41:00.recompense, humility Trust is, trust is something
:41:01. > :41:04.we will never see The myth of the individual has left
:41:05. > :41:13.us disconnected, lost, and pitiful I'm pleading with my loved ones
:41:14. > :41:34.to wake up and love more.