:00:00. > :00:11.It's not true of course, but sure as hell a lot of it is,
:00:12. > :00:14.and in this election the outcome will be determined in different
:00:15. > :00:20.So tonight we are out and about in battleground Britain.
:00:21. > :00:22.Three constituencies each chosen for a special reason,
:00:23. > :00:28.This is Bishop Auckland, the beautiful market
:00:29. > :00:30.town in County Durham, in the election battleground
:00:31. > :00:38.I'm 200 miles south in the Conservative seat
:00:39. > :00:43.The heart of a town lies in its people.
:00:44. > :00:46.We're taking that to heart, and we'll be speaking
:00:47. > :00:59.Scotland is a very different battle ground indeed.
:01:00. > :01:01.We'll hear why this seat of Berwickshire is important,
:01:02. > :01:12.I'm standing outside the town hall, with 30 days
:01:13. > :01:20.It's easy to watch our programme, or any other, and to get
:01:21. > :01:23.the impression that an election is just a contest fought
:01:24. > :01:26.between party leaders on a national stage.
:01:27. > :01:29.Certainly it felt like that today with Theresa May and husband Philip
:01:30. > :01:31.on the One Show sofa and Jeremy Corbyn
:01:32. > :01:38.But we are going to ignore both of those stories tonight -
:01:39. > :01:41.because for good or ill, we have a voting system that
:01:42. > :01:44.also makes our election 650 local contests.
:01:45. > :01:46.Each seat has its own candidates, its own local parties,
:01:47. > :01:49.And with national party loyalties in an elasticated
:01:50. > :01:53.state at the moment, local action is often where it's at.
:01:54. > :01:56.So tonight we've ditched the studio and have come out
:01:57. > :02:03.We are in three ordinary constituencies, chosen
:02:04. > :02:06.because the way their voters turn on June the 8th could help deliver
:02:07. > :02:12.three very different futures for Britain.
:02:13. > :02:15.A little later in the programme, we'll be off to the Conservative
:02:16. > :02:19.The seat is number 50 on Labour's target list,
:02:20. > :02:23.and we're dropping in to look at the Labour in power scenario.
:02:24. > :02:26.If Labour can win Stevenage, they are probably the largest
:02:27. > :02:31.It's a London commuter belt town, but it's a long way
:02:32. > :02:37.And the Tories were 5000 votes ahead last time.
:02:38. > :02:48.But the constituency voted Labour throughout the Blair heydays.
:02:49. > :02:51.We'll also visit the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk constituency
:02:52. > :02:56.This is an SNP seat, but is number three on the Tories' UK target list.
:02:57. > :02:59.A comfortable Tory victory there takes us to the Conservative
:03:00. > :03:00.consolidation outcome, a modest increase in
:03:01. > :03:10.A rural seat, it spans a large portion of south-east of Scotland.
:03:11. > :03:12.Most voters here backed unionist parties last time.
:03:13. > :03:14.Will that help the Tories take it, and signify a resurgence
:03:15. > :03:23.But our first stop is here in Bishop Auckland.
:03:24. > :03:28.A Labour seat now, this is number 46 on the Tory target list,
:03:29. > :03:31.and a win would suggest we're looking at the Tory landslide
:03:32. > :03:34.scenario, with a majority of around 100.
:03:35. > :03:37.This has a long history, but its economy has been shaped
:03:38. > :03:40.by the rise and fall of the coal mines here.
:03:41. > :03:42.Today, the Conservatives need a 4.5% swing from Labour to clinch it.
:03:43. > :03:52.They came within 328 votes of winning it last time.
:03:53. > :04:00.Well, with me here is our political editor, Nick Watt.
:04:01. > :04:03.Nick, we're here because if the Conservatives can win
:04:04. > :04:05.in seats like this then we'd expect them to be on course
:04:06. > :04:07.for a landslide majority, and they would have stolen
:04:08. > :04:09.significant ground from Labour on their home turf.
:04:10. > :04:15.The polling experts have said that if the Conservatives win this seat,
:04:16. > :04:20.they would have a majority of 100, and that is as you say landslide
:04:21. > :04:28.territory. Some recent opinion polls have suggested we are heading that
:04:29. > :04:31.way, the guardian ICM poll yesterday gave the Conservatives a 22 point
:04:32. > :04:35.lead all the others say it is more narrow. But our pollsters were
:04:36. > :04:39.cautious and suggested local election results last week implied a
:04:40. > :04:44.swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 2.5%, and that
:04:45. > :04:48.wouldn't really get you into a landslide, it would be a Tory
:04:49. > :04:53.majority of 60, not bad, who would complain? But that is only ten above
:04:54. > :04:58.the figures that ministers are saying would we make this early
:04:59. > :05:02.election worthwhile. If we're talking about this scenario today,
:05:03. > :05:08.what would the impact of that B? It is something that our age group
:05:09. > :05:14.would refer to as a Basildon moment, that moment in 1982 where it came
:05:15. > :05:20.obvious that the Tories would get a fourth election victory. It has been
:05:21. > :05:23.Labour since 1935 when Hugh Dalton recaptured it from the Liberals. He
:05:24. > :05:28.was the Labour Chancellor who inadvertently leaked his budget in
:05:29. > :05:32.1947, but after spending two Dacia, I would say the Tories have quite a
:05:33. > :05:37.big hurdle to climb, which is entrenched Labour support even from
:05:38. > :05:43.Labour voters who have doubts about Jeremy Corbyn, but there is a
:05:44. > :05:49.reasonable Ukip vote here, and if that splits is the way opinion polls
:05:50. > :05:50.show they will, maybe the Tories will get across the line. Thank you,
:05:51. > :05:57.Nic. And Nick has spent the last couple
:05:58. > :06:00.of days here in Bishop Auckland, testing the temperature of those
:06:01. > :06:02.who live here and asking whether this town will stay Labour
:06:03. > :06:19.or help give the Conservatives Medieval castles and grand houses
:06:20. > :06:24.pepper the western half of the Bishop Auckland constituency. But
:06:25. > :06:30.this is a parliamentary seat of two halves. As you head east into former
:06:31. > :06:35.coal-mining areas, you see tell-tale signs of post-industrial decline.
:06:36. > :06:39.There is real rapport poverty as well as urban poverty. Lots of
:06:40. > :06:44.people struggling to make ends meet in their lives. So there is a lot of
:06:45. > :06:48.the just about managing people do get talked about, and there are
:06:49. > :06:55.those who go from one job to another, they are worried about
:06:56. > :06:59.permanent and stability. Theresa May would dearly love to win this seat,
:07:00. > :07:04.which has been in labour hands since 1935. The Prime Minister should have
:07:05. > :07:07.little difficulty in picking up votes in the more prosperous parts
:07:08. > :07:12.of the constituency. The hope will be that her central message about
:07:13. > :07:19.championing ordinary working families will win over Labour and
:07:20. > :07:24.Ukip voters in the more deprived areas. Success for the Tories,
:07:25. > :07:29.buoyed by their victory in the nearby Tees Valley mayoral contest,
:07:30. > :07:33.may depend in large part whether Labour voters are prepared to
:07:34. > :07:36.support their leader. One lifelong supporter will be casting his ballot
:07:37. > :07:48.the labour, but with little enthusiasm. He is too idle to shave,
:07:49. > :07:52.and he's not right, he's not a Labour top man, I would say. He's
:07:53. > :07:56.got to get himself sorted, because if not, we are going down the
:07:57. > :08:06.Suwanee. His friend Danny isn't going to vote at all. Labour? No
:08:07. > :08:12.backbone whatsoever. I would vote for Labour now. Labour will get it
:08:13. > :08:18.around here no problem at all. But there is no leadership. So there are
:08:19. > :08:21.strong doubts about Jeremy Corbyn in the Bishop Auckland Labour
:08:22. > :08:26.heartlands, but head over to the leafy aside whether Tories can count
:08:27. > :08:31.on strong support, and you can see signs of that Corbyn Fanclub. I
:08:32. > :08:35.think the media are saying that Jeremy Corbyn is in very good. I
:08:36. > :08:46.think he's a very good leader, and I think he stands his ground. I joined
:08:47. > :08:49.the Labour Party to get him in. The contrasting views show that nothing
:08:50. > :08:52.is straightforward about this seat, where the picture on the ground is
:08:53. > :08:57.more nuanced than polling numbers would suggest. Apathy may be a
:08:58. > :09:03.strong factor, and Bishop Auckland is no longer a straight Labour/ Tory
:09:04. > :09:09.fight. Theresa May will only prevail if she can eat into 7000 Ukip votes.
:09:10. > :09:12.Tell me why you wrote Ukip. Because immigration in this country is out
:09:13. > :09:20.of control. Some people say that Ukip in a sense of done their job,
:09:21. > :09:27.we are out of the EU. No, I don't agree. It's not job done, is it?
:09:28. > :09:32.Half a job. Tories tend not to put their heads above the parapet in
:09:33. > :09:37.Bishop Auckland. One mum of an aspiring ping-pong champion is full
:09:38. > :09:41.of praise for Theresa May. I do like her, and coming from the feminist
:09:42. > :09:45.point of view, I like that we've got a woman again. I think she's a
:09:46. > :09:50.strong character, I like what she said about Brexit, and I think
:09:51. > :09:53.probably a lot of people are thinking like that, they think she
:09:54. > :09:59.is a strong leader and that helps the shift from Labour to Tory. I
:10:00. > :10:03.don't think Labour have got a lot going for them at the moment. And
:10:04. > :10:08.there are even Labour voters who praised the Prime Minister. I think
:10:09. > :10:13.she's very strong. I think she won't take anything, she'll be a good
:10:14. > :10:19.candidate and stand strong in terms of Brexit. But I don't believe in
:10:20. > :10:23.the Conservative policies, really. If the Tories do win this seat, it
:10:24. > :10:27.could well be remembered as a seismic moment in British politics.
:10:28. > :10:31.It would be significant because it would say something about what was
:10:32. > :10:34.happening across the nation as a whole, which might surprise people,
:10:35. > :10:40.if this seat particularly went Conservative. In this overlooked
:10:41. > :10:44.corner of north-east England, visitors would barely know an
:10:45. > :10:47.election is under way. Many people told us they are simply
:10:48. > :10:54.uninterested, and the greatest noise issue is not from election's
:10:55. > :10:57.loud-hailers, but from one of England's most spectacular
:10:58. > :11:01.waterfalls. Nic Watt there.
:11:02. > :11:03.Arguably, the grand divide in England, exposed
:11:04. > :11:05.by the referendum last year, was between big cities
:11:06. > :11:07.like Manchester and London and secondary towns and cities that
:11:08. > :11:09.tended to vote more enthusiastically for Brexit.
:11:10. > :11:12.It's that factor that might or might not be reshaping the party
:11:13. > :11:14.loyalties of seats we think of as naturally Labour or Tory.
:11:15. > :11:21.Well, let's reflect on what's changing.
:11:22. > :11:24.I am joined here in Bishop Auckland by James Wharton, former
:11:25. > :11:32.He has been Conservative MP for Stockton South since May 2010.
:11:33. > :11:34.And Chi Onwurah, Labour MP for Newcastle upon Tyne Central
:11:35. > :11:40.since 2010 and a shadow Business Minister.
:11:41. > :11:49.Good evening to you both. Chi first of all, what you think is happening
:11:50. > :11:54.here among traditional Labour voters? Is there some sense of them
:11:55. > :11:57.switching away? I think what we are seeing is we have Brexit divided the
:11:58. > :12:05.country and divided northern voters as well, 58% of northern voters
:12:06. > :12:11.voted to leave. The Conservative Party have taken on Ukip's language
:12:12. > :12:16.and mantle is attracting them, but what I find on the doorstep, and we
:12:17. > :12:19.have many fantastic candidates taking our message into the
:12:20. > :12:25.communities, is that the Labour vote, the memory of the Tory
:12:26. > :12:29.government and the cuts to public services combined with the fact that
:12:30. > :12:33.people do not feel better off, people know that we are 10% on
:12:34. > :12:37.average worse than when the Conservative first came into power,
:12:38. > :12:41.that is still the message. Are you expecting to lose seats in the
:12:42. > :12:49.north-east, though? We are fighting for every vote. That isn't what I
:12:50. > :12:53.asked. The polls suggest that we may experience losses, but on the day
:12:54. > :13:01.itself, I think people will remember what a Tory government means. What
:13:02. > :13:04.is your experience, James Wharton? I would be surprised if we don't take
:13:05. > :13:09.seat in the north-east, what is underlying that is where and when.
:13:10. > :13:15.What do you think it is? I think a long time people voting in the
:13:16. > :13:20.north-east were removed from those who represented them. Brexit is one
:13:21. > :13:24.big reason, it highlighted that. Nearly all of the Labour MPs in this
:13:25. > :13:29.region supported remain, and a lot of the Labour voters supported
:13:30. > :13:34.leave, and there wasn't a voice for them, and they looked elsewhere.
:13:35. > :13:38.What do you say, Chi, to Labour voters when they say, I might not
:13:39. > :13:43.vote Labour or I don't like Jeremy Corbyn. What do you say? I say to
:13:44. > :13:49.them, Labour voters who are thinking of switching to Tory, I say that if
:13:50. > :13:55.in two years' time you will be lying at a -- lying awake at night out of
:13:56. > :14:00.guilt will the Tories are doing to our schools, NHS and economy, and
:14:01. > :14:05.your responsibility for that. And for James to say that our
:14:06. > :14:10.candidates, our MPs, have not been rooted in their communities, when
:14:11. > :14:14.the Tory party is full of people who can't even imagine what it is like
:14:15. > :14:20.to take a bus, never mind to go to a food bank... Let James answer. I
:14:21. > :14:25.have lived the north-east all my life. I have seen the complacency of
:14:26. > :14:29.many of the Labour politicians and the reason. The big thing we face in
:14:30. > :14:32.this country going forward, and people know this, is going to be
:14:33. > :14:37.Brexit, getting the deal are going to that process, and there is a
:14:38. > :14:40.choice in this election between Theresa May and her strong and
:14:41. > :14:41.stable leadership... LAUGHTER
:14:42. > :14:47.. Lets just ask about the pitch of the
:14:48. > :14:50.north-east to your parties. It was the Tories who came up with this
:14:51. > :14:54.Northern Powerhouse slogan, who seem to have a vision or ambition for the
:14:55. > :14:56.North. You must feel terrible that Labour didn't talk about it in that
:14:57. > :15:10.way for so long? Labour has always been rooted in the
:15:11. > :15:15.industrial heartlands. Labour is for a resurgent industry and we know
:15:16. > :15:24.what industry means, jobs, good quality jobs, making and building
:15:25. > :15:29.things. The industrial strategy, you are Shadow Minister for industrial
:15:30. > :15:34.strategy. What is it? Industrial strategy is to invest in our
:15:35. > :15:38.transport, in innovation infrastructure, to invest in
:15:39. > :15:41.communities and skills, for lifelong learning so we have the skilled
:15:42. > :15:46.people to deliver the skilled jobs which mean higher wages and mean we
:15:47. > :15:51.can compete internationally and globally. You were the Northern
:15:52. > :15:56.Powerhouse minister until last summer. What has happened to that,
:15:57. > :16:03.what is going on? Just last week we had the first mayor elected in the
:16:04. > :16:08.north-east region. There are more in the north than anywhere else. And
:16:09. > :16:14.with that comes significant devolution and new powers. Three
:16:15. > :16:19.years ago George Osborne talked about high speed three. It was going
:16:20. > :16:22.to be an east West think that would make northern cities more than the
:16:23. > :16:30.sum of their parts. When is that going to be finished? You do not
:16:31. > :16:35.finish a project on economic growth. When is it going to start? We have
:16:36. > :16:45.seen devolution delivered in the Tees Valley. On every single train,
:16:46. > :16:56.they will be replaced by 2022. These are big investment that had been
:16:57. > :16:59.needed by -- nearly four years. Our economy can have workers moving
:17:00. > :17:03.around thanks to our investment and we will set up the bank of the North
:17:04. > :17:07.which will attract investment here and control that investment. Is it
:17:08. > :17:10.your contention that the Northern Powerhouse is on track and being
:17:11. > :17:22.delivered to the people of the North? I think it is. When you say
:17:23. > :17:28.Northern Powerhouse... You cannot change something that dramatically
:17:29. > :17:31.overnight. You are going to see new trains and devolution deal, the
:17:32. > :17:36.shape of politics is changing across the north of England and people are
:17:37. > :17:42.doing that. We that in the vote. Investment is going to follow. In
:17:43. > :17:45.seven years we have doubled the debt under the Tories. We have to leave
:17:46. > :17:47.it there. Well, that's it from
:17:48. > :17:49.Bishop Auckland for now. We shall return later,
:17:50. > :17:52.but the next leg on this UK Thanks, Evan - and good evening
:17:53. > :18:00.from Abbotsford in the heart of the Scottish Borders,
:18:01. > :18:02.the home of Sir Walter Scott, who did more than his fair share
:18:03. > :18:05.to forge both Scottish identity and the idea of a Scotland's place
:18:06. > :18:09.in the United Kingdom. We are here because constituencies
:18:10. > :18:12.like this are the kind the Conservatives need to win
:18:13. > :18:14.if they are to consolidate But more than that -
:18:15. > :18:18.this election serves to emphasise how much Scotland
:18:19. > :18:21.is "another country". For many here, this is a return
:18:22. > :18:24.to the arguments of the 2014 Nicola Sturgeon says it's a chance
:18:25. > :18:29.to put Scotland in Scotland's hands. Ruth Davidson, after a Tory surge
:18:30. > :18:32.at last week's local elections, says it's an opportunity
:18:33. > :18:35.for unionists to prevail. For Labour, who took a drubbing
:18:36. > :18:38.in the locals and even managed to lose Glasgow council,
:18:39. > :18:40.the question is whether this election brings
:18:41. > :18:44.a fightback or wipeout. The resurgence of the Tories appears
:18:45. > :18:47.to be a direct result In power in Scotland
:18:48. > :18:51.for more than a decade, the last general election
:18:52. > :18:54.was a triumph when they took So this election is for the heart
:18:55. > :18:58.and soul of Scotland, but if the Conservatives gain even
:18:59. > :19:01.a handful of seats, it would contribute to the idea
:19:02. > :19:04.that they are the only party who can Scotland has been at the heart
:19:05. > :19:19.of seismic shifts in politics In 1997 Labour in Scotland
:19:20. > :19:24.was the backbone of Tony Blair's The Conservatives were all
:19:25. > :19:29.but dead in the water Ten years later, the Scottish
:19:30. > :19:36.National Party formed a minority administration in Hollywood and have
:19:37. > :19:40.been in power ever since. Now they command the heights
:19:41. > :19:44.of Scotland at Westminster. But people are beginning to ask
:19:45. > :19:48.whether they have reached peak nat and how that would play
:19:49. > :19:50.into a second independence When Nicola Sturgeon announced
:19:51. > :19:57.there would be a second referendum, did that galvanise unionism
:19:58. > :20:00.in the Scotland? So we've got this odd paradox
:20:01. > :20:03.going on in Scottish politics now where the Unionist parties
:20:04. > :20:06.want to talk about independence because they know they have this 55%
:20:07. > :20:10.majority against it. And the SNP want to talk about other
:20:11. > :20:13.things because they know that they actually are more in tune
:20:14. > :20:16.with the views of the Scottish people on social policy,
:20:17. > :20:18.on Europe, on social justice, There has always been
:20:19. > :20:27.tactical voting here. But this time it may
:20:28. > :20:29.have a radically different effect Labour is in a terrible,
:20:30. > :20:34.terrible position. The weakest I have
:20:35. > :20:39.ever seen the party. I think what is happening is that
:20:40. > :20:41.people are saying, well, another independence referendum,
:20:42. > :20:44.you know, we don't want that. We don't want to wrangle
:20:45. > :20:47.over this question, And so what is happening
:20:48. > :20:52.is they are voting Conservative because they have positioned
:20:53. > :20:54.themselves clearly, clearly as the party that will fight
:20:55. > :20:59.against another referendum. If the Conservatives
:21:00. > :21:01.are going to take any seats from the Nationalists,
:21:02. > :21:03.this one, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk,
:21:04. > :21:07.is first on the hit list. I am in Hawick though,
:21:08. > :21:12.and here is the conundrum. This was once the centre
:21:13. > :21:16.of the textile industry, but a combination of automation
:21:17. > :21:18.and globalisation has decimated Hawico is a family firm founded
:21:19. > :21:28.in the town in 1874. It makes luxury cashmere
:21:29. > :21:30.clothing which is exported Brexit is by far and
:21:31. > :21:39.away the biggest issue Scottish independence,
:21:40. > :21:47.all the uncertainty that we have with all that are our
:21:48. > :21:49.single biggest issues. While the view of the management
:21:50. > :21:52.might be clear, there are some I have never voted Tory
:21:53. > :22:00.in my life and I have But this time I'm going to vote Tory
:22:01. > :22:04.because I voted to come out, I voted to stay together,
:22:05. > :22:08.so I have to vote Tory. They say that Ruth Davidson has
:22:09. > :22:10.detoxified the Tories. But I'm not really wanting another
:22:11. > :22:17.referendum because we have had the result already and I think
:22:18. > :22:20.they're just sort Alistair Moffat farms just
:22:21. > :22:28.a few miles from here. He feels the apparent conundrum
:22:29. > :22:30.of this election particularly Because we are a frontier people
:22:31. > :22:36.and have been for a thousand years, we do not see the frontier people
:22:37. > :22:40.on the other side of the Tweed People want to stay
:22:41. > :22:45.in the British union, To avoid another unnecessary
:22:46. > :22:50.referendum, as they see it. But also the Conservatives are
:22:51. > :22:55.apparently embracing hard Brexit. And many people here do not want out
:22:56. > :23:03.of the European Union. In rural England a seat like this
:23:04. > :23:07.would have been safe Tory territory. But for years even before
:23:08. > :23:10.the rise of the SNP, this was a liberal rather
:23:11. > :23:13.than a Conservative stronghold. It will be here where we discover
:23:14. > :23:16.whether Ruth Davidson has done enough to detoxify the Tories north
:23:17. > :23:24.of the border. What would a Conservative land
:23:25. > :23:27.grab in Scotland mean Nicola Sturgeon surprised many
:23:28. > :23:31.by using the backdrop of Brexit to call for a second referendum
:23:32. > :23:36.earlier this year. But could May have outmanoeurvered
:23:37. > :23:38.her with her snap election? And if so, what would
:23:39. > :23:41.the SNP do next? Well, I caught up earlier this
:23:42. > :23:44.evening with the party's former I asked him what he would
:23:45. > :23:47.regard as a mandate This election will not
:23:48. > :23:52.decide independence. Independence will be
:23:53. > :23:54.decided in a referendum. That is the established policy
:23:55. > :23:59.of the Scottish National Party. This election will decide
:24:00. > :24:01.whether the decisions about Scotland's future should
:24:02. > :24:05.remain in Scotland's hands. These are decisions to be made
:24:06. > :24:07.by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish people,
:24:08. > :24:09.not to be dictated And that is what an SNP victory
:24:10. > :24:14.in this election will reinforce. You asked me what would
:24:15. > :24:20.happen if the SNP... Can I just say that
:24:21. > :24:24.unlike the rather presumptuous vainglorious announcements
:24:25. > :24:27.from the Conservative Party about what they're going to win,
:24:28. > :24:30.the SNP have never taken a single So we will let
:24:31. > :24:35.the electorate decide. You talk about Ruth Davidson saying
:24:36. > :24:41.it is a vainglorious boast to take Gordon,
:24:42. > :24:43.your own seat. But you have said things like,
:24:44. > :24:45.independence is inevitable, Well, to say that independence,
:24:46. > :24:51.there is a movement of Scottish politics towards independence,
:24:52. > :24:54.that is as certain as anything can That is not the same thing as saying
:24:55. > :24:58.I'm going to overturn a 20,000 No, but you got a 6500 majority
:24:59. > :25:06.in the last general election. I had a 20,000 majority over
:25:07. > :25:09.the Conservative Party. I mean, the Tories have this always
:25:10. > :25:13.extending list of seats I'm merely saying that
:25:14. > :25:17.in the north-east of Scotland and in the borders of Scotland,
:25:18. > :25:19.and in any common-sense area of Scotland, the people who make
:25:20. > :25:27.vainglorious boasts before an election can often be brought
:25:28. > :25:30.down to earth with a large bump. You could say that you would be
:25:31. > :25:33.making a vainglorious boast between a second independence
:25:34. > :25:35.referendum because you have said, independence is inevitable,
:25:36. > :25:37.it is just generational. My belief has always been that once
:25:38. > :25:43.the key decision was to establish the Scottish Parliament,
:25:44. > :25:45.once the Scottish Parliament was established, then it would
:25:46. > :25:48.increase and enhance its powers over That was a process which was as near
:25:49. > :25:52.inevitable as anything I have always said the exact timing
:25:53. > :25:58.of when that happens and how that happens,
:25:59. > :26:00.that is for political debate and for I may say the destination
:26:01. > :26:06.is what is set. The route and the number of stops
:26:07. > :26:09.you have on the way, But that is interesting,
:26:10. > :26:13.you say the destination is set. So what you are essentially saying
:26:14. > :26:16.is the Scottish people could deliver no message at this general election
:26:17. > :26:20.which would indicate that they do not want a second
:26:21. > :26:22.independence referendum, No, the Scottish people,
:26:23. > :26:28.my whole basis and being in politics What I am saying is once we
:26:29. > :26:34.established the Scottish Parliament, and we are sitting here not far
:26:35. > :26:38.from Linlithgow and the late Tam Dalyell stayed in the Binns
:26:39. > :26:41.a few minutes from here. And Tam and I disagreed on many,
:26:42. > :26:45.many things in politics, about the establishment
:26:46. > :26:47.of a Scottish Parliament. But the one thing we agreed
:26:48. > :26:50.on is once you have established a national parliament of Scotland,
:26:51. > :26:53.it would over a period of time accrue the powers and become
:26:54. > :26:56.an independent parliament. The people decide the timetable,
:26:57. > :27:00.they decide when that happens. Two years ago the SNP got half
:27:01. > :27:08.the vote in the general election. If that figure is significantly
:27:09. > :27:12.lower in this election, are you saying that irrespective
:27:13. > :27:17.of how they voted on Brexit, No, what I'm saying is the SNP
:27:18. > :27:23.will go into this election looking for every vote and every possible
:27:24. > :27:25.constituency, striving hard And you judge the winning
:27:26. > :27:31.of an election by the party that gets the most seats
:27:32. > :27:33.and the most votes. And you do not take
:27:34. > :27:35.anything for granted. But if the direction of travel,
:27:36. > :27:43.can I just ask, is the direction of travel in this election,
:27:44. > :27:45.if Ruth Davidson moves and takes a number of seats including perhaps,
:27:46. > :27:48.first of all, Berwickshire, which is a very, very
:27:49. > :27:49.slender majority. Or Gordon, yes, because in fact
:27:50. > :27:55.if they tactically voted against you on the same turnout,
:27:56. > :27:57.on the same percent Why would they not
:27:58. > :28:01.tactically vote against I saw an interesting figure
:28:02. > :28:05.in the polls a couple of weeks ago. It did not ask how people
:28:06. > :28:07.were voting, it looked at the parties and said,
:28:08. > :28:10.do you like this party? 53% of people in
:28:11. > :28:12.Scotland like the SNP. The figure for the
:28:13. > :28:15.Conservative Party was 24%. But you have not got over
:28:16. > :28:18.the 50% hurdle for a second I'm interested in the fact that
:28:19. > :28:22.you will go for a second independence referendum no matter
:28:23. > :28:26.what the result of this election is. No, the mandate for the second
:28:27. > :28:29.referendum was last year. The decision on what happens at this
:28:30. > :28:32.election is a matter But you judge whether you win
:28:33. > :28:36.or lose an election by winning And on that criteria
:28:37. > :28:40.the Scottish National Party have won every major election
:28:41. > :28:42.in Scotland since 2010. I'm joined here by the fireside
:28:43. > :28:53.by elections supremo and psephologist John Curtice,
:28:54. > :28:55.who crunches the numbers at the University of Strathclyde,
:28:56. > :29:10.and by Alex Massie, Scotland editor Alex Salmond is right that they have
:29:11. > :29:16.the mandate for a second referendum. But is there anything that could
:29:17. > :29:22.alter the thinking of that? Not for the SNP. In a technical sense or
:29:23. > :29:29.factual sense if you prefer the SNP already have their mandate for a
:29:30. > :29:32.second referendum, authorising the Scottish Government, that vote was
:29:33. > :29:37.passed a few weeks ago. But politics is not just about facts and
:29:38. > :29:41.technicalities and hitherto the SNP have done well covered lies in on a
:29:42. > :29:45.sense of inevitability and the momentum is with them that the are
:29:46. > :29:50.of national aberration if you like is at hand. If they were to lose
:29:51. > :29:56.seats in this election that would check that momentum. It will remain
:29:57. > :30:02.the largest party, but they will see a setback, which will embolden
:30:03. > :30:07.conservatives who think we can push this further down the line.
:30:08. > :30:17.The suits Ruth Davidson makes this about unionism? Ever since the
:30:18. > :30:22.referendum of 2014, the constitutional question has been the
:30:23. > :30:27.seat of Scottish politics, and this election is simply a continuation of
:30:28. > :30:32.that process. The truth is, what has happened is not so much SNP support
:30:33. > :30:35.has gone down that heavily, but rather that the Conservative Party
:30:36. > :30:40.has become much more successful at bringing the Unionist vote in, and
:30:41. > :30:46.essentially it is taking votes from the Labour Party. The other thing
:30:47. > :30:51.which is true is the SNP is defending a quite remarkable base.
:30:52. > :30:56.50% of the vote, 56 out of 59 seats, difficult to beat, and the
:30:57. > :31:03.difficulty for the SNP in particular is you can see what happened in last
:31:04. > :31:08.year's Scottish parliament election. Here on the border with England, up
:31:09. > :31:10.in the north-east, and so on. The Liberal Democrat equally picking off
:31:11. > :31:17.places like Fife north-east and Edinburgh West. And therefore the
:31:18. > :31:22.SNP are finding that the anti-SNP vote is congregating against
:31:23. > :31:28.particular parties. And of course there is this idea that we have
:31:29. > :31:34.always had tactical voting but there are particular areas where it looks
:31:35. > :31:40.as if the best candidate, the Unionist candidate, will be the one
:31:41. > :31:46.in certain areas for example Edinburgh. Yes, I think we can
:31:47. > :31:48.expect to see a nonaggression pact between Unionist parties in
:31:49. > :31:53.Edinburgh which could if everything fell their way leave Edinburgh like
:31:54. > :31:56.Berlin, divided into four zones. You would have the Liberal Democrats in
:31:57. > :32:02.Edinburgh West, Tories in the south-west, Labour in Edinburgh
:32:03. > :32:06.South and the SNP would be the largest group. Whether that actually
:32:07. > :32:10.happens, a lot needs to go right for the Unionist parties for that
:32:11. > :32:13.transpire, but it is possible, and we see a breakdown in tribalism,
:32:14. > :32:17.particularly amongst Conservative voters who are happy to endorse a
:32:18. > :32:22.Labour Liberal Democrat candidate if that's candidate is the person best
:32:23. > :32:29.place to defeat the SNP, because you are either on team SNP, or team
:32:30. > :32:32.anti-SNP in Scotland. But one of the big Scottish stories may well be
:32:33. > :32:36.that what happens to Labour after this election, we don't know the
:32:37. > :32:38.result is yet but there are certainly questions about whether
:32:39. > :32:46.Corbyn should even be in the election literature. That party is
:32:47. > :32:49.only defending one seat, and above South, and it is vulnerable. The
:32:50. > :32:56.Labour Party fell to third yet again as they did further south, but my
:32:57. > :32:59.reading of where we are at, is although the Labour Party is down in
:33:00. > :33:04.Scotland, it is not quite out. It still managed to get a fifth of the
:33:05. > :33:07.vote here, and the gap between them and the Conservatives is still
:33:08. > :33:11.sufficiently narrow that actually the battle for who is going to be
:33:12. > :33:15.the principal party of unionism in Scotland has not yet been won and
:33:16. > :33:21.lost. Ten seconds, does Theresa May have to tread carefully in tone in
:33:22. > :33:24.Scotland? In the long-term, yes. Whitehall, Westminster, Downing
:33:25. > :33:27.Street are very good at next week, next month, but the battle of
:33:28. > :33:31.Scotland will not be decided this year or even next year. This is a
:33:32. > :33:33.matter for five years, ten year down the line. Thank you both very much
:33:34. > :33:34.indeed. Let's hand over now
:33:35. > :33:38.to David Grossman in Stevenage. Welcome to the Cromwell Hotel
:33:39. > :33:46.in old Stevenage, a coaching in since the 16th century and once
:33:47. > :33:49.the home of Oliver Cromwell's One secret nobody knows yet
:33:50. > :33:56.is where this seat is heading It's currently Conservative,
:33:57. > :34:04.but If Jeremy Corbyn can take it back, history suggests
:34:05. > :34:06.he should be on course to win the election,
:34:07. > :34:08.it's around 50 on any ARCHIVE NEWSREEL: Where better
:34:09. > :34:12.to recapture the spirit of these ventures than at Stevenage,
:34:13. > :34:14.Hertfordshire, where in the town centre, known as phase one
:34:15. > :34:16.of the overall plan... A new town to help solve Britain's
:34:17. > :34:24.post-war housing problems. The new A1 motorway and aerospace
:34:25. > :34:30.jobs gave it a futuristic feel. It was the sort of place
:34:31. > :34:35.Harold Wilson had high hopes for. The Britain that is going to be
:34:36. > :34:37.forged in the white heat The answer to that is rather rude
:34:38. > :34:41.to a minority of people... In 1964, a young hopeful
:34:42. > :34:47.Shirley Williams became MP for the area, although boundary
:34:48. > :34:49.changes mean it is a Since the seat of Stevenage
:34:50. > :34:54.was created, whichever party has won here has gone
:34:55. > :34:58.on to win the country. The victory of millionaire
:34:59. > :35:05.Blairite Barbara Follett in 1997 was emblematic
:35:06. > :35:11.of New Labour's triumph. At the last general election,
:35:12. > :35:13.the Conservatives got 44.5% of the vote, with Labour
:35:14. > :35:20.ten points behind. The Conservative majority of a shade
:35:21. > :35:23.under 5000 votes may seem like a big enough mountain for Labour to scale
:35:24. > :35:28.on its own, but consider this. At the last general election,
:35:29. > :35:30.Ukip polled 6,800 votes here, and many of them could now
:35:31. > :35:37.be in play. And according to the most
:35:38. > :35:40.authoritative academic analysis, this area, Stevenage,
:35:41. > :35:45.voted strongly to leave the EU. Another straw in the wind that
:35:46. > :35:47.will make Labour sweat, as last week's local elections
:35:48. > :35:52.Labour start of the night with five of the six Stevenage seats
:35:53. > :35:54.on Hertfordshire County Council. By morning they had lost three
:35:55. > :36:04.to the Conservatives. Now although Stevenage is home
:36:05. > :36:07.to plenty of London commuters - it's just 25 minutes on the train
:36:08. > :36:10.to Kings Cross - it's certainly not Lots of companies and
:36:11. > :36:15.organisations do business here. Among them is the wine society,
:36:16. > :36:18.a cooperative that's been making its members happy
:36:19. > :36:20.by the bottle or Where better to assemble a group
:36:21. > :36:29.of politically-engaged residents who have all at one time to voted
:36:30. > :36:33.labour to taste test the current The wine society provided us
:36:34. > :36:40.with some politically themed wines. The first item on our
:36:41. > :36:42.agenda was to pick one That is going to be
:36:43. > :36:54.hard to beat, I think. I'm very glad to say it
:36:55. > :36:57.has got a screw top. I suppose if you were to put me
:36:58. > :37:01.on the line I would probably be I would be fairly central
:37:02. > :37:06.and you could argue may be leaning slightly to the right,
:37:07. > :37:08.but I'm open to listening And seeing as to whether that is
:37:09. > :37:14.the man I want to vote for. In the past I have mainly voted
:37:15. > :37:17.either Liberal Democrat or green. Probably as I have got
:37:18. > :37:23.older I have changed. I have been a Labour voter, I have
:37:24. > :37:26.been a Liberal Democrat voter. I have probably veered a lot more
:37:27. > :37:32.towards the Liberal Democrats. How do you view the Labour Party
:37:33. > :37:36.at the moment, do you see them as someone you might be
:37:37. > :37:39.giving your vote I view the Labour Party as a lot
:37:40. > :37:45.of very different people who have I do not think we should
:37:46. > :37:48.see the Labour Party We are a large group who have come
:37:49. > :37:52.together and band together with the common aim to achieve
:37:53. > :37:58.what we want. I am suspending my decision
:37:59. > :38:01.until I know a bit more But at the moment for me it is very
:38:02. > :38:05.much a leadership election. To be absolutely honest with you,
:38:06. > :38:08.for the longest time I did not, I was one of these people
:38:09. > :38:11.who did not pay much It is only within the past few years
:38:12. > :38:15.where I have noticed how it is affecting the people around me
:38:16. > :38:18.that I have taken And I'm now a fully paid-up
:38:19. > :38:23.member of the Labour Party because Jeremy Corbyn actually
:38:24. > :38:26.grabbed hold of me, as it And those things that
:38:27. > :38:32.I was unhappy about, How do you feel about
:38:33. > :38:37.the Labour Party at this election, are they somebody you might end
:38:38. > :38:39.up voting for? I would not dream whatsoever
:38:40. > :38:42.of voting for the Labour Party as it He may well have, you know,
:38:43. > :38:47.great qualities in Jeremy Corbyn, I think the country need somebody
:38:48. > :38:49.that has gravitas. I think the country needs
:38:50. > :38:52.somebody that can actually I think the Shadow Cabinet
:38:53. > :39:00.is something at the moment that I could not entertain voting for,
:39:01. > :39:08.whether it is John McDonnell, all I think of the front bench team
:39:09. > :39:12.do not have anything that gives me any belief that what
:39:13. > :39:14.they say, I can believe. I think we would be a laughing
:39:15. > :39:18.stock on the world stage. What is going to inform your
:39:19. > :39:21.vote at this election? The focus on our services
:39:22. > :39:24.within the country. I know there is a whole big talk
:39:25. > :39:28.about Brexit and it seems to be an election about Brexit
:39:29. > :39:32.at the minute. You have got the Conservatives
:39:33. > :39:35.saying they are the ones that are going to push for it
:39:36. > :39:38.were the other parties would not. But I feel we are losing track
:39:39. > :39:41.of the services around our local towns and the country and the NHS
:39:42. > :39:44.and things like that. So that is going to be
:39:45. > :39:46.what is important for me. I voted to leave because I
:39:47. > :39:51.think Europe is a con. I didn't vote because there
:39:52. > :39:54.are too many people coming It is a bosses club and I'm
:39:55. > :39:59.not a boss so I didn't If you go into negotiation you need
:40:00. > :40:06.to have a clear idea of what you want and what you're
:40:07. > :40:08.trying to achieve. And what you do not want is being
:40:09. > :40:11.undermined by your own party And I have not seen much evidence
:40:12. > :40:17.of that up until now. I would like to pick up something
:40:18. > :40:20.that Charlie said earlier on, that's actually the general election
:40:21. > :40:23.is not all about Brexit. Brexit is important,
:40:24. > :40:25.but if we are not careful we will lose sight of all the other
:40:26. > :40:28.things that we actually need But Brexit, we have a job to do,
:40:29. > :40:34.we need somebody that's And somebody that actually has a job
:40:35. > :40:42.and gets on and does it. And Theresa May, do you think
:40:43. > :40:44.she has leadership qualities? I think you certainly know
:40:45. > :40:47.what she wants to achieve and I think she certainly has more
:40:48. > :40:50.of the support of party than for Again this five or six weeks I think
:40:51. > :40:57.is the chance to show what they're trying to achieve and how they're
:40:58. > :41:00.going to do it. That was our own, I should say
:41:01. > :41:09.unscientific gathering of voters. There is another month until polling
:41:10. > :41:11.day so everything remains in play even if the polls suggest
:41:12. > :41:16.it's all over. That's it from here,
:41:17. > :41:34.let's go 200 miles back up the A1 While we have been on air, it has
:41:35. > :41:38.emerged that President Trump has sacked James Komi, the director of
:41:39. > :41:42.the FBI, apparently on the advice of Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Mark
:41:43. > :41:47.Urban is back in the studio in London and joins us now. How did
:41:48. > :41:52.this newsbreak? Remarkably, about half an hour go from the White House
:41:53. > :41:57.press secretary Sean Spicer. The correspondence was then released.
:41:58. > :42:01.President Trump sending a letter to director Komi saying he had been
:42:02. > :42:06.terminated, and in a typical Trump fashion, thanking him for saying he
:42:07. > :42:12.wasn't a subject of the investigation into his campaigns
:42:13. > :42:17.Russia ties, and putting the onus on his Attorney General. That put the
:42:18. > :42:22.onus on the deputy Attorney General, who actually said the director of
:42:23. > :42:27.the FBI was being fired because he had declared Hillary Clinton to be
:42:28. > :42:35.in the clear last summer on the e-mail saga, and that shouldn't have
:42:36. > :42:44.been done by an FBI director, said the deputy Attorney General. Where
:42:45. > :42:48.does this leave the FBI? Locked, as you can see, in this battle with the
:42:49. > :42:53.Justice Department, whoever succeeds, there is this trial going
:42:54. > :42:59.on, it is a bureaucratic trough of dominance, the Justice Department
:43:00. > :43:03.plays that role of the Director of Public Prosecutions, in this country
:43:04. > :43:07.they decide these things. At this incredibly sensitive time when the
:43:08. > :43:11.FBI is investigating allegations of ties between President Trump's
:43:12. > :43:15.campaign and Russian intelligence, and there is also the whole
:43:16. > :43:18.political background to this. People on all sides of this has been
:43:19. > :43:23.blaming James Comey. Hillary Clinton blamed him for flip-flopping on the
:43:24. > :43:28.e-mails issued just before the election. An extraordinary crisis
:43:29. > :43:32.really leaving big questions for whoever takes the helm at the FBI
:43:33. > :43:39.about how they keep the Russia investigation credible. Mark, thank
:43:40. > :43:41.you. I dare say we will have more on that tomorrow, but that is it for
:43:42. > :43:44.tonight. In case you didn't know,
:43:45. > :43:46.today was the first day of nominations if you want to stand
:43:47. > :43:49.as a candidate in You have till Thursday at 4pm
:43:50. > :43:54.to make your intentions known We dug up a little guide to how
:43:55. > :44:00.in the Pathe library which we feel hasn't dated
:44:01. > :44:03.at all since it was made in 1950. Any potential candidate must be
:44:04. > :44:08.a British subject over 21 and sponsored by ten voters
:44:09. > :44:11.in the district. He must deliver his nomination
:44:12. > :44:13.papers to the returning officer and deposit ?150 in cash as proof
:44:14. > :44:20.of his serious intention. This is a precaution against
:44:21. > :44:24.the waste of public time and money. Freak candidates are dissuaded
:44:25. > :44:26.by this deposit, because the money is forfeited if the candidate fails
:44:27. > :44:29.to poll more than one eighth Let us think before we vote,
:44:30. > :44:36.and if you can't think, But in fact, few independent
:44:37. > :44:46.candidates are freaks. Often they are well
:44:47. > :44:47.known public figures. For example, Commander
:44:48. > :45:05.Stephen King-Hall. Good evening. The skies are clear,
:45:06. > :45:08.it is turning chilly. The good news is that Wednesday is looking
:45:09. > :45:13.beautiful across most of the UK, but it will be a chilly start. These are
:45:14. > :45:19.the temperatures first thing on Wednesday in city centres. These
:45:20. > :45:26.temperatures just outside of town, enough for some grass frost in rural
:45:27. > :45:30.areas. Mind the sunshine, it is strong this time of year, just as
:45:31. > :45:35.strong as it is in July, so you might burn if you are out for a
:45:36. > :45:38.lengthy period of time. There will be cloud around in northern parts of
:45:39. > :45:42.Scotland, but other than that it is looking like a stunning afternoon,
:45:43. > :45:47.and a fine evening on the way as well, Wednesday night into Thursday.
:45:48. > :45:52.Then it is all change from Thursday onwards, we are anticipating thicker
:45:53. > :45:56.cloud drifting in from the south-west and we will start to see
:45:57. > :45:58.the cloud building, showers affecting southern counties, some of
:45:59. > :46:05.them moving into Wales and the Midlands, but most of them should be
:46:06. > :46:09.light, many of us with a dry and sunny day again on Thursday, with
:46:10. > :46:13.humidity rising, and you will notice that certainly by the time we get to
:46:14. > :46:15.Friday, it will feel close, and there is a risk of some
:46:16. > :46:20.thunderstorms developing almost anywhere across England and Wales.
:46:21. > :46:23.Temperatures despite the cloud and rain will get up to 90 degrees in
:46:24. > :46:24.the south, teams in the North, but