:00:00. > :00:14.Our manifesto will be an offer and we believe the policies
:00:15. > :00:19.So what will voters make of this offer from Jeremy Corbyn?
:00:20. > :00:27.Tonight, we analyse in full the politics, the policy
:00:28. > :00:29.and the reaction to the leaked manifesto, as we
:00:30. > :00:36.It has major spending implications for the country.
:00:37. > :00:40.The voters want to see a bigger state.
:00:41. > :00:43.It's not as if - from what we've seen, at any rate -
:00:44. > :00:45.that they've come up with things that people don't want.
:00:46. > :00:47.The problem is, they've come up with everything
:00:48. > :00:51.Many of the ideas have a popular ring on the doorstep.
:00:52. > :00:53.Will voters trust those bearing the message?
:00:54. > :00:55.David Grossman has been gauging reaction.
:00:56. > :01:03.But I'm loathe to say what I really think at the minute.
:01:04. > :01:09.And where does this manifesto fit into the political firmament?
:01:10. > :01:21.Our panel is raring to go, with our left-right blackboard.
:01:22. > :01:26.It was not so long ago we moaned about all political parties looking
:01:27. > :01:31.Failure to offer proper choice to the voter,
:01:32. > :01:32.failure to bring anything new to the table.
:01:33. > :01:34.Well, no-one looking at Labour's manifesto -
:01:35. > :01:38.in whatever form it finally emerges - can parrot that line now.
:01:39. > :01:41.If the leaked draft remains true to character, then this
:01:42. > :01:43.is a bold political treatise, and one we're exploring
:01:44. > :01:48.It offers a role for the state, perhaps not seen since the post-war
:01:49. > :01:57.It seeks bigger national services for both health and education,
:01:58. > :02:00.on top of the renationalisation of some rail and energy firms.
:02:01. > :02:02.You can call it backward looking, if the talk of unions
:02:03. > :02:05.and a new "Department for Labour" makes you think of the 1970s.
:02:06. > :02:08.You can call it forward looking, if you think it speaks
:02:09. > :02:10.to a generation emerging from Britain's worst
:02:11. > :02:14.It is - in Jeremy Corbyn's words - 'a promise to transform
:02:15. > :02:18.And it involves huge quantities of new spending, not yet costed.
:02:19. > :02:20.Tonight, we will analyse the politics, the policies
:02:21. > :02:26.Nick Watt, our political editor, is here now.
:02:27. > :02:34.We know that we have not got the costings in what we know today, but
:02:35. > :02:38.did this Satan more in a meeting about whether leagues came from?
:02:39. > :02:41.Jeremy Corbyn is furious with the leak and he has commissioned an
:02:42. > :02:47.independent Commission to find out what happened and his allies believe
:02:48. > :02:50.the moderates, the people in the labour movement to tried and failed
:02:51. > :02:56.to dislodge him last year, that they were behind the leak. They regard
:02:57. > :03:00.this as a deeply hostile act to ensure that the manifesto was
:03:01. > :03:05.betrayed as it was on the front page of the Daily Telegraph today as a
:03:06. > :03:09.throwback to the 1970s. What these allies of Corbyn are saying, they
:03:10. > :03:13.think the moderates want this to be seen as a new version of the 1983
:03:14. > :03:16.manifesto, so that would ensure a heavy defeat for Labour and they
:03:17. > :03:23.would be able to come after him again. One Corbyn allies said they
:03:24. > :03:28.are utterly confident the manifesto is not like 1983 and it is a punter
:03:29. > :03:33.friendly. There are compromises but I was told if a socialist campaign
:03:34. > :03:37.group of Labour MPs have persuaded the Ed Miliband to do this last
:03:38. > :03:41.time, they would have been ecstatic. Any word from the moderates tonight?
:03:42. > :03:46.Perish the thought they would have reached this manifesto, of course!
:03:47. > :03:50.Some believe this manifesto is about turning out to the core Labour vote
:03:51. > :03:56.on June 8th so Jeremy Corbyn does not suffer a heavy defeat and he can
:03:57. > :04:01.stay on as Labour leader. I was told by one senior figure on the
:04:02. > :04:05.so-called moderate side today that John McDonnell faced questioning
:04:06. > :04:10.today over what was described as the vast spending commitments in this
:04:11. > :04:14.manifesto, and he did say, it is fully costed and that will be
:04:15. > :04:19.published next week. But then a senior Labour figure said this to
:04:20. > :04:24.me, this manifesto, will never be implemented, so it is all rather
:04:25. > :04:26.academic. So in a way, today really ended up being the unofficial launch
:04:27. > :04:45.of the Labour manifesto. Prime Minister Corbyn? It has been a
:04:46. > :04:52.bruising journey... For a manifesto he believes should provide the route
:04:53. > :04:57.into Number 10. Today was meant to be a relatively low-key event. But
:04:58. > :05:01.the traditional pre-election clause five meeting to approve the Labour
:05:02. > :05:08.manifesto turned into a bit of a media circus after draft versions
:05:09. > :05:12.will eat. If Jeremy Corbyn could wave a magic wand, he would not be
:05:13. > :05:16.producing this exact document, it commits a future Labour government
:05:17. > :05:20.to renewing Trident nuclear deterrent after he failed to change
:05:21. > :05:25.party policy, but the leaked versions do encapsulate his key
:05:26. > :05:28.beliefs about the need for a massive programme of public investment, the
:05:29. > :05:34.gradual nationalisation of Hezbollah but railways and other state
:05:35. > :05:39.intervention. -- Hezbollah but railways. Labour were forced to
:05:40. > :05:44.finalise the manifesto at short notice but this did not have the
:05:45. > :05:48.feel of something scribble out on the back of a packet. The details
:05:49. > :05:54.will be set out to you including the costings for the pledges and
:05:55. > :05:58.promises that we make. Chief strategist have been working on the
:05:59. > :06:01.document since Jeremy Corbyn's election last year, after becoming
:06:02. > :06:07.convinced the Prime Minister would go to the polls. One early
:06:08. > :06:12.supporter, he became disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn, was impressed. I
:06:13. > :06:16.do think the manifesto in terms of its key policies and the vision,
:06:17. > :06:22.because people generally do not vote on individual policies, a vision
:06:23. > :06:26.about realising this country's great potential, not being held back
:06:27. > :06:29.because of vested interests and investing in public services and the
:06:30. > :06:34.economy, if that cuts through, Labour had a chance to turn this
:06:35. > :06:38.around. One veteran of the Labour elections agrees this will appeal on
:06:39. > :06:42.the doorsteps, but there is a weakness. It is an extraordinary
:06:43. > :06:46.document from what we have seen, it has got everything in it. A
:06:47. > :06:49.cornucopia of ideas, everything everybody said the focus group they
:06:50. > :06:54.would like the Government to do for them. The problem is, that is kind
:06:55. > :06:58.of not how it works with election pledges, that does not give you
:06:59. > :07:02.credibility. Take the and energy prices, Ed Miliband introduced it
:07:03. > :07:05.and promised it and they looked at him and did not believe he would
:07:06. > :07:11.deliver. The so-called Labour moderates had feared the Corbyn team
:07:12. > :07:17.would produce a 21st-century version of the party's 1983 manifesto,
:07:18. > :07:21.famously dubbed the longest suicide note in history. One veteran of
:07:22. > :07:26.Labour's most recent election loss believes this comparison is only
:07:27. > :07:31.partially fair. You see quite a lot of material in this manifesto
:07:32. > :07:36.familiar to people from the 2015 manifesto. I see quite a lot in this
:07:37. > :07:41.manifesto which will be familiar for people who watched the 1983 general
:07:42. > :07:45.election as we were heading to disaster. I think the truth the
:07:46. > :07:50.manifesto and for a general election campaign is we never know what it
:07:51. > :07:53.means until afterwards. The country will soon be sizing up the choice
:07:54. > :07:58.between Labour and its vision of public investment and Theresa May
:07:59. > :08:03.and have gained strong and stable leadership. Corbyn supporters
:08:04. > :08:09.believe they are on stronger ground. David Cameron promised in the 2015
:08:10. > :08:12.election stability against the chaos of Ed Miliband, we have not had a
:08:13. > :08:19.more chaotic period since World War II in British history so they have
:08:20. > :08:23.not quite delivered on that. In four weeks' time, Britain could have a
:08:24. > :08:27.Prime Minister who for 30 years was shunned by his own party as a
:08:28. > :08:32.marginal figure on the left. We now have a chance to decide whether
:08:33. > :08:33.Jeremy Corbyn's vision, with the odd revision, should entitle him to take
:08:34. > :08:38.his place in Number 10. Barry Gardiner, who was in that
:08:39. > :08:41.meeting, joins me now. The IFS says this manifesto
:08:42. > :08:48.is about the state getting deeply involved in much more of the private
:08:49. > :09:04.sector than it has been since 1970s, No, I don't think so at all. What we
:09:05. > :09:08.are doing, we are trying to free people of from the things that are
:09:09. > :09:13.holding them back. If you look at a young couple today, they cannot get
:09:14. > :09:16.even a deposit for a rented accommodation, they cannot get a
:09:17. > :09:22.mortgage, they cannot start a family. And they are saying, why? We
:09:23. > :09:26.both have jobs, we both work, and we cannot do the things our parents
:09:27. > :09:30.easily could have done at that age. Teachers feel they are not able to
:09:31. > :09:35.be doing in schools and teaching children the way they would want.
:09:36. > :09:40.But you would not be against the state getting bigger to help? It is
:09:41. > :09:43.not about the state, it is bringing people up and letting them do the
:09:44. > :09:50.things they can do and they should be doing, innovation. It was so
:09:51. > :09:55.funny when you had the peace at the very beginning. The woman was almost
:09:56. > :10:01.criticising this manifesto. The trouble is, this offers people
:10:02. > :10:05.everything. This is IFS reading your manifesto it so far, the state
:10:06. > :10:09.getting deeply involved in much more of the private sector in a way it
:10:10. > :10:13.has not since the 1970s and perhaps the 1940s, that is wrong, we will
:10:14. > :10:19.see a smaller state? Where will we be? What we are trying to do is
:10:20. > :10:24.trying to enable people to get on with their lives and feel that they
:10:25. > :10:31.are properly rewarded for doing the things that they just simply wants
:10:32. > :10:35.to do. So is the state going to be bigger, smaller, the same? Very
:10:36. > :10:38.simple question. The state will regulate in terms of taxation and
:10:39. > :10:43.you have seen what the Conservatives have said, they will not give a
:10:44. > :10:47.promised on VAT. We talk about nationalisation and intervention,
:10:48. > :10:51.lots of ways he will spend more on infrastructure, you talk about a
:10:52. > :10:55.national education service and National Health Service, so tell us
:10:56. > :10:59.the state will get bigger and we are proud of it! Is it not wonderful we
:11:00. > :11:06.are talking about putting half eight trillion pounds... White do you seem
:11:07. > :11:10.to be embarrassed to be backing... I am not embarrassed, you are trying
:11:11. > :11:15.to put me into a form of words and I do not want the form of words, we
:11:16. > :11:18.should talk about the substance. You are talking semantics, and want to
:11:19. > :11:23.talk about the substance. The substance that says we are going to
:11:24. > :11:27.do it across three, not just eight second Crossrail in London, from the
:11:28. > :11:32.West Coast to the East coast of the North of England. That is big ideas.
:11:33. > :11:38.Is this a socialist manifesto and of the country votes for your Labour
:11:39. > :11:42.government, do we become a socialist country, a Social Democrat country?
:11:43. > :11:46.You are obsessed with labels, let's talk about the issue. There is a
:11:47. > :11:52.philosophy here from a man that has believed the same things for three
:11:53. > :11:56.decades. It is not just from a man, it is from today, there were 60
:11:57. > :12:01.people in that room. Ed Miliband said he was a socialist and proud,
:12:02. > :12:04.are you a socialist, is this a socialist manifesto? The Labour
:12:05. > :12:08.Party has always been a socialist Democratic party and that is where I
:12:09. > :12:13.will always stand, but it is not about me and names, it is ensuring
:12:14. > :12:19.the people who feel they are held back in this country... Shall start
:12:20. > :12:21.centres are closing, they have taken ?4.6 million out of social care
:12:22. > :12:27.because the health service, the figures today, 2.5 million people
:12:28. > :12:32.now waiting more than four hours to get into an Accident and Emergency.
:12:33. > :12:36.These are the issues. We are saying we have solutions to this and the
:12:37. > :12:40.lady said it is what everybody wants. You are right, big efforts to
:12:41. > :12:45.increase spending on social care and the NHS and education we heard from
:12:46. > :12:51.Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Taking back the franchises on the railways. One
:12:52. > :12:53.area that will appeal to voters is immigration. Their rules and
:12:54. > :12:59.reasonable management of immigration. There is not an awful
:13:00. > :13:02.lot in the pages we have seen so far about the immigration policy. We
:13:03. > :13:09.know you do not like the Theresa May idea of tens of thousands as a, is
:13:10. > :13:12.there any? Theresa May does not like the tens of thousands idea because
:13:13. > :13:17.she tried to get down to tens of thousands and she promised to when
:13:18. > :13:21.she was Home Secretary and it is now 270,000. She did not do very well
:13:22. > :13:28.here. That was when she was Home Secretary. You have said do not
:13:29. > :13:31.bother with the cap? No, let me be clear, we will put our economic
:13:32. > :13:35.policy before our immigration policy, and we will make sure we
:13:36. > :13:40.have immigration into this country that is beneficial to our economy,
:13:41. > :13:44.that creates jobs analysis ID, that allows us to be a prosperous and
:13:45. > :13:50.innovative society where we are growing our economy. That is the
:13:51. > :13:53.right way to do it. She is subordinating the economic policy to
:13:54. > :13:59.immigration control. Am a Labour voter, I care about immigration and
:14:00. > :14:03.I want to know, what that means in concrete terms and you say it is
:14:04. > :14:07.270,000, would you be happy to see that go up? Let me be very clear, at
:14:08. > :14:16.the moment for the rest of the world, we have immigration controls.
:14:17. > :14:20.Different types of user. That is what we have. They have those
:14:21. > :14:26.controls in place. And talk to me broadly, would you be happy if it
:14:27. > :14:30.went up? Immigration numbers will always go both down and up according
:14:31. > :14:35.to the needs of the economy. If they go up to half a million, you are
:14:36. > :14:38.relaxed? If it is beneficial to our economy and it provides jobs and
:14:39. > :14:44.growth in this country, and if that jobs and growth is distributed
:14:45. > :14:49.fairly through the system, because that has been a problem with the way
:14:50. > :14:49.society is run, it has not been distributed fairly through the
:14:50. > :14:57.system. It could go up to one million and
:14:58. > :15:01.you would say, that's fine, we are relaxed because it is benefiting the
:15:02. > :15:06.economy? It is silly trying to trap me into a number. It is not a trap.
:15:07. > :15:11.You are talking to voters for whom immigration is literally the central
:15:12. > :15:15.issue, it is what drove many people to vote for Brexit... Is it? Do you
:15:16. > :15:19.not think their job is the central issue, they are not in a zero hour
:15:20. > :15:26.contract and they can't afford to even set up a home or start a
:15:27. > :15:31.family, is that not the central issue. Labour's message is that
:15:32. > :15:35.immigration is not a priority. Again, you are trying to trap me
:15:36. > :15:39.into a form of words. It is not about it not being a priority or not
:15:40. > :15:44.the number one priority, we are saying the key thing in our society
:15:45. > :15:47.is to have a fair society, that is why we are talking about their
:15:48. > :15:51.management and control about immigration. There is nothing in
:15:52. > :15:55.here about free movement. Of course not. Free movement, when we leave
:15:56. > :16:03.the European Union, and we accept we are leaving the EU, the free
:16:04. > :16:05.movement of people goes. The free movement only exists within the
:16:06. > :16:08.internal market and we are not going to be in the internal market. And
:16:09. > :16:13.you are accepting that if a Labour government is in power free movement
:16:14. > :16:19.world of? We have already said that! You are behind the times. -- free
:16:20. > :16:23.movement of people would go. That is not in your manifesto, why don't you
:16:24. > :16:29.say it? Forgive me, you have seen a leaked draft of a manifesto, you
:16:30. > :16:34.haven't seen before manifesto. Is it in the 41? You will see on Tuesday.
:16:35. > :16:38.Keir Starmer has been saying for weeks that the Labour Party accepts
:16:39. > :16:42.that we are leaving the EU, and as we are leaving we are no longer
:16:43. > :16:46.going to be a member of the EU, and therefore free movement of peoples
:16:47. > :16:52.to because it is free movement within the internal market. That is
:16:53. > :16:57.not actually in the draft. Let's go to be exciting things about this
:16:58. > :17:02.manifesto, let's talk about the way we have a vision for society about
:17:03. > :17:06.innovation, a vision for society creating a low carbon economy, low
:17:07. > :17:09.carbon future, doing all of the things for the environment, making
:17:10. > :17:13.sure that we protect the environment in the way that this Government
:17:14. > :17:18.wants to deregulate it. This is a wonderful list of policies, there is
:17:19. > :17:22.a something of everyone, it is a catalogue of delightful things, and
:17:23. > :17:25.yet we have this Mirror poll of people you are pursue Mowgli quite
:17:26. > :17:29.friendly towards. On the back of this they are saying that
:17:30. > :17:32.fundamentally -- people you are presumably quite friendly towards.
:17:33. > :17:37.They are saying there is no confidence in the capability of the
:17:38. > :17:41.leadership to deliver this. Let me be absolutely clear, on Tuesday next
:17:42. > :17:46.week when we launched this manifesto, every single element of
:17:47. > :17:57.this manifesto will be costed, absolutely clearly, how much it's
:17:58. > :18:00.going to cost and where that money is coming from. So we are absolutely
:18:01. > :18:03.clear that we can deliver all the things that we are promising to do.
:18:04. > :18:05.Even though a week ago today you were losing 500 councillors in the
:18:06. > :18:08.local actions, you were losing in the south valleys of Wales. What has
:18:09. > :18:12.that got to do with money? I don't talk about money, I talked about
:18:13. > :18:15.credibility in your party to deliver this. Surely you have already been
:18:16. > :18:20.to the electorate wants this month and they don't team to believe that
:18:21. > :18:25.you are the party that is capable of delivering? You think we have lost
:18:26. > :18:29.this election before the vote has counted, I don't. I believe this is
:18:30. > :18:32.a transformative manifesto, I believe what your introduction said,
:18:33. > :18:38.this is telling people that Labour will deliver all of the things that
:18:39. > :18:43.they genuinely want, or they -- all the things that have been holding
:18:44. > :18:45.them back will be taken away, there will be a redress of the
:18:46. > :18:50.inequalities in this country, that is the way that people can move from
:18:51. > :18:55.what they thought about local elections in rural areas to what's
:18:56. > :19:00.going to happen Won Jun Lee eight. Because we have policies. -- on June
:19:01. > :19:04.88. The Conservative Party will not give you a single policy. They have
:19:05. > :19:09.kept their minister is quiet the whole time. Will areas like Glasgow
:19:10. > :19:10.decide? We have the policies to take Britain forward, they don't. Thank
:19:11. > :19:15.you, Barry Gardiner. So, will this emerge
:19:16. > :19:18.as the manifesto Jeremy Corbyn has How radical will it
:19:19. > :19:21.look in practice? Perhaps the standout statement
:19:22. > :19:23.is the unashamed commitment to some higher taxes
:19:24. > :19:25.and greater public spending - of politicians on all sides have
:19:26. > :19:29.shied away from saying out loud. We know little of the costing
:19:30. > :19:32.details of the commitment - We have been told it has already
:19:33. > :19:36.been sorted out. But what would Corbyn's
:19:37. > :19:38.Britain look like? Here's our policy
:19:39. > :19:39.editor, Chris Cook. The leaked Labour manifesto has
:19:40. > :19:42.certainly proved to be distinctive. Each newspaper has
:19:43. > :19:43.found something to say. Not least because the
:19:44. > :19:45.document promises a lot From what we can tell,
:19:46. > :20:07.Labour are planning a substantial increase in tax, possibly an even
:20:08. > :20:10.bigger increase in spending. But they do have a rule on debt -
:20:11. > :20:20.it says it has to fall as a share of national income over
:20:21. > :20:22.the parliament, and it's possible that even with their additional
:20:23. > :20:26.borrowing, they'd be on course will try to make the case,
:20:27. > :20:34.as they always do, that What Labour's political opponents
:20:35. > :20:37.will be doing is going through it, looking for expensive things,
:20:38. > :20:40.and trying to kind of come up with a grand total for how much
:20:41. > :20:43.the Labour platform costs, to try to undermine its credibility,
:20:44. > :20:47.so that people can't go, actually, I quite like that idea,
:20:48. > :20:49.because the truth is But manifestos aren't
:20:50. > :20:54.bean-counting exercises, And this one focuses on a large
:20:55. > :20:57.part on the gig economy. Labour wants to raise
:20:58. > :20:59.employment standards through higher minimum wages
:21:00. > :21:06.and so-called sectoral bargaining. Sectoral bargaining would really
:21:07. > :21:09.help workers in low-paid industries like care,
:21:10. > :21:11.hospitality and logistics. But it would help good
:21:12. > :21:14.employers too, and stop them And it's very simple -
:21:15. > :21:19.it's about setting a framework a framework agreement -
:21:20. > :21:21.employers and unions and setting minimum
:21:22. > :21:24.standards for pay, skills It's still the case, even today,
:21:25. > :21:28.that your public services are by and large run
:21:29. > :21:30.by public sector workers. But it's also true that in recent
:21:31. > :21:33.decades policymakers have got more relaxed about the idea that,
:21:34. > :21:36.if the public sector can't offer the service they want
:21:37. > :21:38.at a price they like, they'll go to the private
:21:39. > :21:42.sector instead. And this draft manifesto proposes
:21:43. > :21:46.changing direction on that front. Specifically, it suggests ending
:21:47. > :21:54.the franchising of rail services, and proposes reversing
:21:55. > :21:56.the involvement of the private The manifesto also proposes
:21:57. > :21:59.changes for companies And proposes extensions
:22:00. > :22:17.of the role of the state. I'll tell you this, I wouldn't be
:22:18. > :22:22.sorry if it was a 60% tax... But this is all a long way
:22:23. > :22:26.to the right of where Mr Corbyn used There's no wider
:22:27. > :22:28.nationalisation plan. How, then, have some of Mr Corbyn's
:22:29. > :22:48.old friends taken it? Back in 1993 I was a young
:22:49. > :22:52.Bennite foot soldier, very taken on the idea
:22:53. > :22:54.of a fundamental reverse shift in the balance of power
:22:55. > :22:56.towards working people We were talking about
:22:57. > :23:03.policies such as a planned nationalisation of one key company
:23:04. > :23:09.in every economic sector. Clearly what we've got today
:23:10. > :23:11.is nothing like that. But Britain is a very
:23:12. > :23:13.different country. This is very much the right package
:23:14. > :23:16.for Britain in 2017. For left stalwarts, it's a step
:23:17. > :23:18.in the right direction. And some of their ambitions
:23:19. > :23:21.about the role of the state have As when Margaret Thatcher
:23:22. > :23:24.said they would. 3.5 years ago, defenders
:23:25. > :23:27.of the status quo tried to brand How absurd it will seem in a few
:23:28. > :23:35.years' time that the state ran Pickfords removals
:23:36. > :23:45.and Gleneagles hotels. So it's not a 1970s Labour left
:23:46. > :23:48.prospectus - this isn't 1983. But you probably won't be able
:23:49. > :23:51.to tell that from the attacks So, does this manifesto tell us
:23:52. > :23:55.the age of austerity is dead Joining us now - Ann Pettifer,
:23:56. > :23:59.Keynesian economist. And John Peet, Political Editor
:24:00. > :24:07.at The Economist. It does seem interesting this time
:24:08. > :24:11.around, it is not just Labour, nobody is really talking about
:24:12. > :24:17.posterity, debt or the deficit. Have we just sort of shelf that now --
:24:18. > :24:20.austerity. Yes, it didn't work. Economists told politicians but all
:24:21. > :24:25.they had to do was cut spending and the public debt would fall. The
:24:26. > :24:31.public debt has doubled we stayed high. The politicians are now both
:24:32. > :24:34.confused and embarrassed. -- has stubbornly stayed high. We are in
:24:35. > :24:39.limbo, not knowing which way to turn. I hope people have finally
:24:40. > :24:44.realised that actually you don't pay for public services from taxation,
:24:45. > :24:48.and governments have never paid for public services from taxation, they
:24:49. > :24:52.loan finance. You loan finance to pay the public service. There was a
:24:53. > :24:56.certain moral high ground but all people were saying, don't pass that
:24:57. > :24:59.on to your grandchildren, don't saddle the Next Generation, but now
:25:00. > :25:09.we have? We have saddled future generations with a lot of debt. It
:25:10. > :25:11.has quietly gone out of the window, there two reasons. Brexit will be
:25:12. > :25:13.the overwhelming issue of the next Government, whoever it is. The
:25:14. > :25:16.deficit has come down quite substantially. Even in this
:25:17. > :25:19.manifesto, John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor, is insisting that
:25:20. > :25:22.everything is carefully costed and there is a promise they will try to
:25:23. > :25:26.balance the current budget within five years. They are at least in
:25:27. > :25:32.their language still talking about reducing the budget deficit and not
:25:33. > :25:35.adding to the public debt. In this sense, it is an extraordinarily
:25:36. > :25:40.conventional politician, you know, he is. And the Labour Party, the
:25:41. > :25:44.Labour governments have been far more fiscally Conservative than the
:25:45. > :25:48.Conservative governments. I'm not sure I agree with that. Neither
:25:49. > :25:52.party seems nearly as scared of nationalisation this time around,
:25:53. > :25:56.whether it is talk of the railways, Royal Mail, or in Theresa May's
:25:57. > :26:01.case, a cap on energy fees. There is intervention either side now, right?
:26:02. > :26:05.We have had the wrist massive state intervention in our economy in our
:26:06. > :26:09.history. We found 1000 billion pounds to bailout the banking system
:26:10. > :26:18.overnight. That was a state intervention. The state is currently
:26:19. > :26:20.backing all of the world's big banks, with government guarantees,
:26:21. > :26:23.with easy money at low interest rates. I wonder if Labour has read
:26:24. > :26:25.the mood of the nation right. Actually we are prepared for more
:26:26. > :26:30.state intervention, certainly the new generation want more. Write
:26:31. > :26:35.there are certainly areas where nobody can object to the principle,
:26:36. > :26:39.the state-owned railway. This has come up before. I do think the
:26:40. > :26:42.general direction of this manifesto, and sometimes I have to say the
:26:43. > :26:47.general direction of the Tory government and the Mrs May, has been
:26:48. > :26:50.one in which they talk up an industrial strategy and more
:26:51. > :26:55.intervention in the labour market, this manifesto is replacing 20 new
:26:56. > :26:58.workers' rights, it is suggesting we move British labour Lord Ahmad give
:26:59. > :27:04.more by continental European law, in which it is harder to fire people --
:27:05. > :27:11.British labour law more like Continental. Individual parts of
:27:12. > :27:16.this will be very popular, the rail will be popular, it sounds popular
:27:17. > :27:21.to say, let's get rid of zero hours contracts. But the lesson that we
:27:22. > :27:25.did learn in the 60s, 70s and 80s is that excessive state ownership can
:27:26. > :27:29.be bad for the economy and excessive regulation of the labour market,
:27:30. > :27:33.which we have seen in continental Europe, can ride up unemployment.
:27:34. > :27:38.This is not a state market issue. If the economy were thriving and the
:27:39. > :27:42.banks were servants of the economy and not masters of the economy, if
:27:43. > :27:45.the finance sector hadn't wrecked the economy, the private sector
:27:46. > :27:48.would be very much bigger than a share of the whole economy. What
:27:49. > :27:52.happens when the private sector shrinks, as it has done over the
:27:53. > :27:55.last ten years, not recovered, is that the state becomes a bigger part
:27:56. > :27:59.of the cake. The point that all politicians should take on board is
:28:00. > :28:05.that to make the cake bigger should be the key aim. Because of how thick
:28:06. > :28:14.the IFS is, the fixation on this part of the economy,... When you are
:28:15. > :28:17.talking about rising Corporation Tax levels, you know, the implication
:28:18. > :28:21.blog determines you are going to make it possibly less attractive at
:28:22. > :28:25.a time of Brexit for people to come in. There is no correlation between
:28:26. > :28:31.rising Corporation Tax and increased or lower investment. In fact, we
:28:32. > :28:36.have a really big problem with very low investment by our... I wouldn't
:28:37. > :28:41.necessarily agree. The reason why many countries have cut Corporation
:28:42. > :28:43.Tax rate is because it is a good way of attracting foreign investment,
:28:44. > :28:47.and it has worked in this country, we have had high foreign investment.
:28:48. > :28:52.It is a more general thing, if you are going to use a system where you
:28:53. > :28:55.say, we are going to regulate the amount of pay that companies
:28:56. > :28:59.campaign and we are going to introduce requirements in companies,
:29:00. > :29:04.you are interfering in the marketplace. Mrs May is trying to do
:29:05. > :29:07.that, like all politicians you realise the public are very unhappy
:29:08. > :29:10.with the 1% running away with all of the gains from this crisis and the
:29:11. > :29:14.rest of us having to carry the burden, and that is the political
:29:15. > :29:19.reality. A bigger role for the state is not going to produce a better
:29:20. > :29:21.economy. But it saved the banks. I'll see you in the Green room later
:29:22. > :29:24.and we can on! Thank you. Jeremy Corbyn promised today
:29:25. > :29:26.the manifesto contained policies And perhaps it's hard
:29:27. > :29:30.to argue with the sound Extra funding for the NHS,
:29:31. > :29:33.financial provision for social care, equal rights for all workers
:29:34. > :29:35.and free childcare. But of course, there's
:29:36. > :29:38.a cost to all this first, and an implementation
:29:39. > :29:39.of it all after. So what do voters make of what's
:29:40. > :29:42.on offer, and do they believe Jereym Corbyn is the man they trust
:29:43. > :29:45.to deliver it? Although Jeremy Corbyn didn't
:29:46. > :29:52.officially set out his stall today, we got some pretty strong
:29:53. > :29:55.indications of what he and his Renationalising rail
:29:56. > :29:57.and Royal Mail services, Increasing the minimum wage,
:29:58. > :30:11.as well as abolishing tuition fees. More cash for the NHS and more
:30:12. > :30:14.cash for social care, According to polling,
:30:15. > :30:19.all of them get pretty strong It's places like this, Watford,
:30:20. > :30:25.that Jeremy Corbyn and Labour need their manifesto
:30:26. > :30:26.to have maximum impact. It was Labour until 2010, when it
:30:27. > :30:35.went over to the Conservatives. But if Jeremy Corbyn wants
:30:36. > :30:37.to be Prime Minister, he more or less has to retake
:30:38. > :30:40.seats like this. Do those sorts of policies
:30:41. > :30:42.sound attractive to you? I mean, I've got an 18-year-old
:30:43. > :30:50.who's thinking of going to university, so the fee
:30:51. > :30:52.element is brilliant. Utilities, as a parent as well,
:30:53. > :30:56.we have to look at bills and stuff. I mean, I used to travel to London
:30:57. > :31:00.as well and it's a nightmare. If they had those policies,
:31:01. > :31:02.I would vote for them. And that would be enough
:31:03. > :31:06.to change your mind? At the moment, you know,
:31:07. > :31:11.who do I vote for? I worked for the railway for 32
:31:12. > :31:15.years, so I'd definitely like to see Would you vote for a party that
:31:16. > :31:19.gave you those policies, But I'm loathe to say what I really
:31:20. > :31:27.think at the minute. Theresa May has got some charisma,
:31:28. > :31:32.where you feel like if she says she's going to do something,
:31:33. > :31:35.that she will do it. Although I'm a great
:31:36. > :31:40.believer in Labour policy, Although by no means
:31:41. > :31:49.a scientific survey, the attitudes we found in Watford
:31:50. > :31:52.are backed up by polling, about how people decide
:31:53. > :31:54.who to vote for. For a lot of people,
:31:55. > :31:59.it's not about specific policies. So a lot of people want education
:32:00. > :32:03.in this country to improve, but they won't really be interested
:32:04. > :32:08.in how the parties go about that. A lot of people want the health
:32:09. > :32:12.service to get better, but the minutiae of the detail
:32:13. > :32:15.about health service policy And they want a strong
:32:16. > :32:19.economy that is growing, but they are not really interested
:32:20. > :32:22.in how the parties go about that. And so it comes down
:32:23. > :32:25.to who they trust, who they think can be effective, and who they think
:32:26. > :32:28.can be a strong leader, and that is where Labour is behind
:32:29. > :32:31.at the moment and needs to improve. Although of course important,
:32:32. > :32:34.manifestos on their own, it seems, The temptation is always to find
:32:35. > :32:38.a name for a political philosophy. Are we looking at a Bennite vision,
:32:39. > :32:40.the ghost of Kinnock, It is irrepressible -
:32:41. > :32:44.the urge to box something up, place it, describe it
:32:45. > :32:45.with what you know? So instead of fighting
:32:46. > :32:50.it, we gave in to it. We've come up with this - our grid -
:32:51. > :32:53.to describe where our pundits think. Where Corbyn sits amongst
:32:54. > :32:57.other Labour leaders. On the left, we have Michael Foot -
:32:58. > :33:08.1983's manifesto. In the middle, we have Ed Miliband
:33:09. > :33:15.from 2015. And we have style at the top and
:33:16. > :33:26.substance here. Stephen Bush is Special
:33:27. > :33:30.Correspondent for the New Statesman. And Faiza Shaheen, Director
:33:31. > :33:39.of the Thinktank Class. I am going to give you a rosette
:33:40. > :33:43.each. Magnetic. This has Jeremy Corbyn on it. Can you give a sense
:33:44. > :33:49.and you can shift these around, where you place Jeremy Corbyn?
:33:50. > :33:53.Substance and style and left and right, in terms of the manifesto
:33:54. > :33:57.draft we have seen so far. This is really tricky because it is about
:33:58. > :34:02.context, the context in which we have seen this manifesto today and
:34:03. > :34:07.we know that we have nurses going to food bags and young people in debt,
:34:08. > :34:14.consumer debt is rising. A bunch of problems. A lot of stuff in the
:34:15. > :34:20.manifesto looks sensible. So I have a problem with this. I am really
:34:21. > :34:25.struggling. You can shift the middle if that is what you are saying.
:34:26. > :34:30.Sorry, yes. I'm going to put it here. Maybe I can move it around in
:34:31. > :34:35.the end. It has substance and style and it is to the left, but each of
:34:36. > :34:38.these leaders, you have to understand in the context of the
:34:39. > :34:42.situation. To the left of Ed Miliband but not as far left as some
:34:43. > :34:46.people have said, in between Michael Foot and Ed Miliband? Yes, fair
:34:47. > :34:52.enough, he goes further on some things. Congratulations on the money
:34:53. > :34:58.that you have spent on this! Saving the licence fee payer money. Michael
:34:59. > :35:03.Foot, I think, should be a little bit further down and to the right
:35:04. > :35:06.because I think Jeremy Corbyn is intrinsically to the left of Michael
:35:07. > :35:14.Foot. He was in the Labour government for many years. You have
:35:15. > :35:20.got your own rosette, is yours. Ed Miliband deserves to be squeezed in
:35:21. > :35:26.the middle. He was a bit more to the left. And Tony Blair, you have put
:35:27. > :35:30.on the extreme right. He was not if you look at a lot of the things he
:35:31. > :35:33.did, people on the left should be proud of them but they are not for
:35:34. > :35:39.some reason. So a bit further to the left. Everyone has moved to the
:35:40. > :35:50.left? I am tempted but Jeremy Corbyn here. It will not stick. Overdue. I
:35:51. > :35:57.am also going to move at and Tony around. I am going to move Ed a bit.
:35:58. > :36:01.Imagine for a moment Jeremy Corbyn was saying, I am going to declare
:36:02. > :36:06.everyone in the Metropolitan Police is racist. We would go, is he a
:36:07. > :36:11.Communist? But Tony Blair did that. If he would increase the statutory
:36:12. > :36:15.form for how much people are paid by 100%, we would say that is radical,
:36:16. > :36:19.but Tony Blair did that. Jeremy Corbyn said, I am going to make
:36:20. > :36:25.every museum and art gallery free, we would say, who is this man? But
:36:26. > :36:29.Tony Blair did that. In many ways, the style axis is the most
:36:30. > :36:36.important. So Jeremy is out to the left in terms of style and Ed in
:36:37. > :36:41.between. Style to substance, so he has less substance? They are all
:36:42. > :36:47.substantial documents, but Jeremy Corbyn is running on a posture of
:36:48. > :36:51.left-wing politics whereas Tony Blair's priority was to reassure the
:36:52. > :36:54.middle classes, aspirational working-class people, who did not
:36:55. > :37:01.usually vote Labour. And if you look at the tone of all former
:37:02. > :37:06.manifestos, they are a lot closer together -- four manifestos. That is
:37:07. > :37:10.where Jeremy Corbyn fails, Tony Blair got people voting Labour that
:37:11. > :37:17.had never voted Labour in the past. In the manifesto today, it does not
:37:18. > :37:22.appeal. Even though there is a poll from the Daily Mirror tonight that
:37:23. > :37:25.these different policies people quite like individually, adding them
:37:26. > :37:29.together, they do not. And that is where Jeremy Corbyn should not be
:37:30. > :37:34.there, he should be much further to the left and may be less substance.
:37:35. > :37:40.I do not think that is to do with the policies. That is to do with
:37:41. > :37:43.other things. One of the things in the discussion before was about the
:37:44. > :37:48.credibility of those policies and whether they have the money to back
:37:49. > :37:52.it up. That complicates this. Ed Miliband probably would have wanted
:37:53. > :37:58.to go this left but did not because they bought into, you can only spend
:37:59. > :38:03.as much as you have and they would not admit to any borrowing. There
:38:04. > :38:10.has been a brake on that in the late manifesto today. A bit of a break!
:38:11. > :38:14.We have not seen... If what they are saying is right and it goes down to
:38:15. > :38:19.leadership and capability in terms of who the leader is, none of the
:38:20. > :38:25.policies even matter. We're not at that point? No, people see things
:38:26. > :38:29.through the policies and Jeremy Corbyn is against somebody who's
:38:30. > :38:33.manifesto is, trust me, it will be OK. This could break the narrative
:38:34. > :38:38.of the election, do you think? What matters is if they can turn people
:38:39. > :38:41.around and if you put trust Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street, and people
:38:42. > :38:46.see the policies through the Prism of the leader. That is what this
:38:47. > :38:51.chart reveals. If we had a focus group, it would put Tony Blair in
:38:52. > :38:54.the middle, Ed to the left a little bit and most people would not know
:38:55. > :39:00.who Michael Foot was, and they would say Jeremy Corbyn is a bit to my
:39:01. > :39:03.left as well. But really, it is about whether the leader is
:39:04. > :39:08.reassuring people. Is there anything Theresa May has taken from today
:39:09. > :39:12.last night's manifesto she will take? If you had but Theresa May in
:39:13. > :39:17.front of a computer and said, would you like to write the Labour
:39:18. > :39:21.manifesto to your maximum benefit, she would have written 90% of this.
:39:22. > :39:28.It plays into her playbook. She also took a policy of Ed Miliband two
:39:29. > :39:32.years ago. In a manifesto of this month, there will be things that
:39:33. > :39:37.sound quite good, I have read all 45 pages and there were things that
:39:38. > :39:40.sound OK. Adding the policies together, it plays into Conservative
:39:41. > :39:46.hands. She is framing the selection on two things, Brexit, with three
:39:47. > :39:50.pages on that which says nothing, and the presidential contest between
:39:51. > :39:54.her and Jeremy Corbyn. In the last week of campaign, I will tell you
:39:55. > :39:58.right now, it will be pitching herself again Jeremy Corbyn to say,
:39:59. > :40:03.who do you think will negotiate best in Brussels? They have gone off that
:40:04. > :40:06.a bit but they will return to that. I am glad you brought Theresa May,
:40:07. > :40:11.it is strange to do this exercise just comparing Labour with Labour,
:40:12. > :40:15.we should compare Labour with what the Conservatives want to do. We
:40:16. > :40:21.have not heard much about what they will do on schools and the NHS, lots
:40:22. > :40:25.of these issues that Corbyn has listed in these documents. It is
:40:26. > :40:30.about comparing what it is, you are right they want to focus on Brexit
:40:31. > :40:36.and leadership. You want us to come back next week! The reason why we
:40:37. > :40:41.are comparing Labour in 2015, Labour got 9 million votes and the Tories
:40:42. > :40:44.11 million. There is nothing any of these rosettes of that those two
:40:45. > :40:47.million people they need to move over to suggest they are any better
:40:48. > :40:50.than Ed. Thank you very much indeed. But before we go, we were wondering
:40:51. > :40:55.whether you could give us a hand? We've noticed that there are certain
:40:56. > :40:58.politicians that appear to be being kept off the
:40:59. > :41:00.airwaves at the moment. Newsnight has sent John Sweeney
:41:01. > :41:04.in pursuit of one of them - the Environment Secretary,
:41:05. > :41:05.Andrea Leadsom. She's evaded him so far,
:41:06. > :41:07.apart from this cryptic tweet. If anyone knows where these woods
:41:08. > :41:32.are, do let us know. Thing is turning more unsettled from
:41:33. > :41:33.the South through the day today and it will turn