:00:00. > :00:07.Was this the week that changed the election?
:00:08. > :00:12.We talk to the man that invented the swingometer,
:00:13. > :00:17.David Butler, who tells me he's never seen anything like it.
:00:18. > :00:23.Anything may happen. The movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a
:00:24. > :00:26.bigger movement that has occurred in any previous election.
:00:27. > :00:31.Donald Trump's time abroad comes to a close.
:00:32. > :00:36.But just what is awaiting him at home with the Russia Investigation?
:00:37. > :00:43.It would be a terrible thing if someone who was president of the
:00:44. > :00:48.United States knowingly profited of laundering money for criminals. It
:00:49. > :00:54.would be even worse if the President of the United States' business
:00:55. > :00:57.profited of laundering money for the Russian state.
:00:58. > :00:59.And Divided Britain - Katie Razzall looks
:01:00. > :01:04.at the faultlines on the question of Scottish independence.
:01:05. > :01:09.I would hate to separate from the UK. I would love, I'm quite happy to
:01:10. > :01:14.be part of the British Isles, just not the UK. You haven't really got
:01:15. > :01:22.the choice I you've got a really big hammer drill.
:01:23. > :01:27.Remember those heady days when this election seemed boring?
:01:28. > :01:28.When we were sick of the stage managed, unwavering
:01:29. > :01:32.Many feared the electoral outcome had already been written
:01:33. > :01:35.on something more permanent than the fated EdStone.
:01:36. > :01:42.A week that began with a monumental Uturn, soon forgotten in the torment
:01:43. > :01:48.And from its wake, a campaign that emerged refocussed -on national
:01:49. > :01:53.A poll today showed Labour slashing the Conservative
:01:54. > :01:58.We'll be speaking to David Butler in a moment -
:01:59. > :02:01.the psephologist who has seen more from the frontline of electoral
:02:02. > :02:09.So is this a question of voters genuinely changing their minds?
:02:10. > :02:13.Or of a nation too shattered to know what it thinks right now.
:02:14. > :02:33.At the beginning of the week the election looked very
:02:34. > :02:35.Theresa May's unprecedented manifesto U-turn on
:02:36. > :02:37.the social care was dominating the headlines
:02:38. > :02:38.and Labour was sensing an
:02:39. > :02:42.It might appear unseemly, callous even, to
:02:43. > :02:45.ask what impact the dreadful events in Manchester will have on a general
:02:46. > :02:53.But it is undeniable the campaign was interrupted.
:02:54. > :03:02.Re-focused on new themes, security, on
:03:03. > :03:06.It is also undeniable that how we see our party leaders is
:03:07. > :03:08.partly informed by how they respond to profound events.
:03:09. > :03:20.Restarting campaigning today, Jeremy Corbyn gave his
:03:21. > :03:22.assessment of the lessons of the Manchester attack.
:03:23. > :03:24.He said Labour would reverse police cuts.
:03:25. > :03:26.He also outlined what he saw as some of the
:03:27. > :03:29.Many experts, including professionals in our
:03:30. > :03:31.intelligence and security services, have pointed out the connections
:03:32. > :03:34.between wars that we've been involved in all supported and fought
:03:35. > :03:44.in in other countries, such as Libya, and terrorism here at home.
:03:45. > :03:47.That assessment in no way reduces the guilt of those who attack our
:03:48. > :03:50.And informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an
:03:51. > :03:52.essential part of an effective response that will protect the
:03:53. > :04:04.At the end of his speech, Mr Corbyn declined to
:04:05. > :04:13.And then made a dash for the back door.
:04:14. > :04:15.However, later, he faced a grilling on the
:04:16. > :04:22.They're targeting young girls at a pop concert because
:04:23. > :04:24.They said they hate secular, liberal societies.
:04:25. > :04:27.I agree they hate those liberal values, they
:04:28. > :04:29.hate the idea of women being able to enjoy
:04:30. > :04:31.themselves, and all the
:04:32. > :04:34.That was the whole point of my speech this morning.
:04:35. > :04:36.We've got to defend our liberal values.
:04:37. > :04:40.What was the foreign policy of Sweden that resulted
:04:41. > :04:50.The foreign policy issue has to be for all of us.
:04:51. > :04:52.What is happening in a number of countries,
:04:53. > :05:00.Meanwhile the Prime Minister was in Sicily at the G-7
:05:01. > :05:02.summit, working, she said, without international partners to fight
:05:03. > :05:06.At the same time Jeremy Corbyn has said that terror attacks
:05:07. > :05:09.And he's chosen to do that just a few
:05:10. > :05:14.days after one of the worst terrorist atrocities we have
:05:15. > :05:20.I want to make one thing very clear, to Jeremy Corbyn and to you, and it
:05:21. > :05:22.is that there can never, ever be an excuse for terrorism.
:05:23. > :05:24.But what impact, if any, is this having on
:05:25. > :05:36.A YouGov poll immediately after Theresa May called the
:05:37. > :05:38.election in April had the Tories sitting on a 24 point lead.
:05:39. > :05:41.The latest poll, conducted after the Manchester attack, has
:05:42. > :05:53.So far based on the evidence we've seen, it
:05:54. > :05:55.doesn't seem as though it has yet had a big impact.
:05:56. > :05:57.Certainly anything that moves the conversation in the
:05:58. > :05:59.direction of terrorism, national security, perhaps defence, will
:06:00. > :06:00.benefit conservatives because from polling
:06:01. > :06:01.before Manchester it was
:06:02. > :06:05.clear they had quite a big lead in that area.
:06:06. > :06:11.There doesn't seem to be an impact from that yet. The big impact seems
:06:12. > :06:15.to be more from the social care, the impact it's had an Conservatives.
:06:16. > :06:20.There's no guarantee something like this, a big national security
:06:21. > :06:23.emergency, helps the incoming government. In Spain it had the
:06:24. > :06:27.opposite effect, though there were specific issues around how the
:06:28. > :06:32.government had handled it. It cuts both ways. The opposition as well,
:06:33. > :06:37.if Labour is seen too quickly to be trying to pile in and attack the
:06:38. > :06:42.government, that could rebound on to Labour. There is now another
:06:43. > :06:46.interruption in the campaign for the bank holiday weekend. By the time
:06:47. > :06:49.the population goes back to work on Tuesday will politics still be
:06:50. > :06:56.dominated by security and terrorism issues or will it be something else?
:06:57. > :06:59.Sir David Butler is to psephology what Shakespeare is to dramaturgy,
:07:00. > :07:02.a veteran who has seen elections come and go since the 1950s.
:07:03. > :07:05.Today he told me this movement of opinion in the polls was a bigger
:07:06. > :07:07.one than had occurred in any previous election.
:07:08. > :07:09.Over drinks this afternoon, we discussed the latest polls,
:07:10. > :07:13.the effect of the Manchester bombing and whether we could be
:07:14. > :07:16.dealing with a shy Tory or a shy Labour phenomenon,
:07:17. > :07:28.You, David Butler, are a psephologist.
:07:29. > :07:36.I'm afraid it's a silly academic joke
:07:37. > :07:39.which somebody else perpetrated and I put in print about eight years
:07:40. > :07:46.Now it hangs like an albatross around my neck.
:07:47. > :07:48.David, how do you see this election campaign in terms
:07:49. > :07:50.of the many that you have been through?
:07:51. > :07:52.Well, it's very different from any one before.
:07:53. > :07:55.I'm rather glad that I'm not writing about it as I
:07:56. > :07:56.have written about virtually every
:07:57. > :07:59.This time, what happened in Manchester transforms
:08:00. > :08:01.things, and it seems to be having an
:08:02. > :08:11.The election came unexpectedly, but when
:08:12. > :08:14.it came it looked like a very expedient thing done by the
:08:15. > :08:15.Conservatives, looking to a large
:08:16. > :08:20.They may still get a large majority, but it doesn't look likely
:08:21. > :08:24.to be nearly as big as they had expected.
:08:25. > :08:26.Do you think that the events in Manchester will have an
:08:27. > :08:39.They seem already to have done in the
:08:40. > :08:41.opinion polls to have made a difference to expectations.
:08:42. > :08:43.And they may make a bigger difference, but
:08:44. > :08:55.The movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a bigger
:08:56. > :09:00.So you have never seen this big a swing, if you like,
:09:01. > :09:02.from one party to another during a
:09:03. > :09:06.There have been movements and late swings that have
:09:07. > :09:07.helped the Conservatives on a couple
:09:08. > :09:11.Is your sense that the change of policy or the policy on
:09:12. > :09:14.dementia tax has really upset people?
:09:15. > :09:24.I have not been very cautious in the past about making
:09:25. > :09:27.predictions, but I am far more cautious now than ever before.
:09:28. > :09:29.It obviously looks like an Conservative
:09:30. > :09:31.victory because they are still ahead
:09:32. > :09:33.in the polls and they would win if
:09:34. > :09:40.So the Conservatives need not despair.
:09:41. > :09:42.But the Labour Party can obviously feel much happier now than
:09:43. > :10:01.-- how do you turn is turn generally?
:10:02. > :10:03.Well, there haven't been major U-turns.
:10:04. > :10:05.The U-turn last week was a bigger U-turn
:10:06. > :10:06.than I can recall at any election
:10:07. > :10:11.Does it feel to you that we have gone back to a two party
:10:12. > :10:15.Well, to a large extent, we can't say that because of
:10:16. > :10:17.And Northern Ireland is quite outside the scene.
:10:18. > :10:20.We can only talk about England and Wales.
:10:21. > :10:21.Past elections have had relatively
:10:22. > :10:29.It is interesting how in past elections, swing has
:10:30. > :10:34.When you have got ten seats in, you can
:10:35. > :10:37.predict the final result without
:10:38. > :10:41.great inaccuracy in all the elections I have been doing.
:10:42. > :10:43.So in England and Wales, then, the
:10:44. > :10:44.swingometer is very much alive and
:10:45. > :10:52.And if there a moment or is there a seat
:10:53. > :10:54.that you will be looking out for in
:10:55. > :10:58.I think we will know the result by midnight.
:10:59. > :11:00.If there are a dozen seats declared
:11:01. > :11:01.between 10.50, when the first seat
:11:02. > :11:03.got out last time, and midnight, if
:11:04. > :11:05.we have a dozen seats then, we will
:11:06. > :11:11.have a good idea of what is happening.
:11:12. > :11:13.And whether the things the polls suggesting are happening
:11:14. > :11:19.I hope you're wrong, because we have a long night of work
:11:20. > :11:26.I shall be happy to sit up all night watching
:11:27. > :11:34.If Jeremy Corbyn wins this election, what will
:11:35. > :11:36.be the magnitude of the challenge that he has overcome?
:11:37. > :11:41.It would be overwhelming in terms of both the
:11:42. > :11:42.swing in votes he has achieved, but also,
:11:43. > :11:44.of course, the programme and
:11:45. > :11:50.It would be enormous and would have great repercussions in the market
:11:51. > :12:03.This is a very key election, and the alternative outcomes,
:12:04. > :12:05.Conservative victory and Labour victory, are more
:12:06. > :12:09.extremely different than at any election in my lifetime.
:12:10. > :12:10.You've recently joined Twitter, where
:12:11. > :12:12.everything has to be said in 140 characters.
:12:13. > :12:17.If you had to sum up your election prediction in 140
:12:18. > :12:26.characters or thereabouts, what would it be?
:12:27. > :12:30.Oh, I think it would be "The Conservatives will win, but by
:12:31. > :12:31.nothing like the margin they were expecting
:12:32. > :12:43.Sir David, thank you very much indeed.
:12:44. > :12:49.So on June 9th, will we look back and think this was the week
:12:50. > :12:52.Or will this have been a momentary blip -
:12:53. > :12:55.albeit it in tragic circumstances - that actually did little to shift
:12:56. > :12:59.Paul Mason is a Guardian columnist and a Labour supporter.
:13:00. > :13:01.Iain Dale is a conservative broadcaster and the managing
:13:02. > :13:05.And down the line from Salford, Jennifer Williams is
:13:06. > :13:10.the Political Editor of the Manchester Evening News.
:13:11. > :13:15.It's great to have you all. Jennifer, I'll start with you
:13:16. > :13:19.because this is a completely different campaign, at least it
:13:20. > :13:24.feels that, to the one we were expecting. Campaigning has come back
:13:25. > :13:29.with a vengeance. Does it feel like Manchester is ready for that to
:13:30. > :13:33.resume at this sort of level? I think in Manchester and not sure
:13:34. > :13:38.people are focusing on the general election campaign now. As the
:13:39. > :13:44.campaign kicks back on, I suppose it started again with Ukip yesterday...
:13:45. > :13:50.It's easy to think we're back into the swing. In Manchester it's been
:13:51. > :13:54.four days. People aren't yet in a position to really process the
:13:55. > :14:01.information. We're still a city in shock. I can only really speak from
:14:02. > :14:07.a personal perspective... It feels very soon-to-be back to
:14:08. > :14:11.electioneering again. For a personal perspective, somebody who lives in
:14:12. > :14:15.Manchester, it does feel too soon. I spoke to a few senior Labour people
:14:16. > :14:20.around here before I came out this evening and their opinion on Jeremy
:14:21. > :14:24.Corbyn's timing and the content of his speech varied from poorer too
:14:25. > :14:28.crass to live it was one of the messages I got back. Particularly on
:14:29. > :14:35.the timing, though a lot of people were disagreeing on the content and
:14:36. > :14:38.analysis. I feel it's very soon-to-be back into it. We in
:14:39. > :14:45.politics and journalism have a tendency to think of this attack,
:14:46. > :14:49.this warlike murderous attack on our country, was an interruption to
:14:50. > :14:52.something more important, which is the election. Not just in
:14:53. > :14:59.Manchester, all over the country people feel the important thing is
:15:00. > :15:02.the war we're in. The war? We're in a war with IS and people realise we
:15:03. > :15:05.are against an enemy that wants to kill little girls. Every family,
:15:06. > :15:11.everybody sitting around the television and the table is thinking
:15:12. > :15:18.about that. In that sense it is very unfortunate we've had to restart the
:15:19. > :15:22.election. Yet, you know, you cannot avoid the national security
:15:23. > :15:25.implications. Labour in no way can sit there and avoid... When
:15:26. > :15:28.Conservative Central office treats tonight that Jeremy Corbyn is on the
:15:29. > :15:33.side of our enemies. If he's on the side of our enemies he shouldn't be
:15:34. > :15:37.in Parliament. He's not on the side of our enemies. I think the weird
:15:38. > :15:42.thing is, what we all need to do is avoid jumping the shark. We need to
:15:43. > :15:46.avoid raising this in this acute moment of national mourning into a
:15:47. > :15:50.position where everybody turns around and starts going... It's you,
:15:51. > :15:53.you're the one. Did you take that on board? Do you think it's the
:15:54. > :16:05.conservatives who politicised something that was the campaign?
:16:06. > :16:11.I could have said virtually all but Paul said. It does seem odd that in
:16:12. > :16:14.an election, it is a bare knuckle fight. It ought to be a bare knuckle
:16:15. > :16:19.fight about the future of our country and democracy. All parties
:16:20. > :16:24.will now have to be Kebble about the tone and set. Some people say the
:16:25. > :16:30.Conservatives have never bored in their attack on Jeremy Corbyn today.
:16:31. > :16:34.Do you think so, that the Conservatives went overboard? It is
:16:35. > :16:37.unfortunate that he said what he said about foreign policy in his
:16:38. > :16:41.speech. That could have waited, but Labour had to get on the front foot
:16:42. > :16:44.because in this week, when there is a national emergency, the Prime
:16:45. > :16:47.Minister gets all the airtime. It is natural that that happens. The
:16:48. > :16:51.opposition always find it hard to get on the front foot. So Jeremy
:16:52. > :16:55.Corbyn was right to try and get on the front foot. His advisers were
:16:56. > :17:00.right about the speech, but they misjudged the tone of some of it.
:17:01. > :17:03.Jennifer, I register what you said about it being too soon, but do you
:17:04. > :17:08.think there is in his message something that will bring a lot of
:17:09. > :17:13.people with him? Potentially, but at the moment it is too early to say.
:17:14. > :17:17.Campaigning hasn't started in earnest, so no one has been out at
:17:18. > :17:24.the doors yet. We don't know how people are feeling or how people
:17:25. > :17:30.will respond. To come back to what I was saying about being days. Four
:17:31. > :17:33.days ago, Jeremy Corbyn was standing on a stage with Amber Rudd in
:17:34. > :17:36.Manchester and the whole point of it was that it was a nonpolitical
:17:37. > :17:40.occasion where people were not grandstanding or making political
:17:41. > :17:45.points. That was not the purpose of it. And that was received very well
:17:46. > :17:52.by Manchester. It was politicians together, paying their respects,
:17:53. > :17:54.showing that they cared and they understood the magnitude of this and
:17:55. > :18:02.they were not using it as a platform. I think it is yet to be
:18:03. > :18:07.seen how people will respond to political points being made a few
:18:08. > :18:11.days later. I am interested to get a sense, and you will be able to shed
:18:12. > :18:16.some light, Paul, on the kind of conversations going on in labour HQ
:18:17. > :18:24.now. Are people saying to Jeremy Corbyn, you have got to start taking
:18:25. > :18:28.the election back, or is there a difficulty? They know they are
:18:29. > :18:33.underdogs from beginning to end. There are parts of Labour HQ that do
:18:34. > :18:36.not have conversations with other parts of Labour HQ. According team
:18:37. > :18:40.have always known they are underdogs. They have always had the
:18:41. > :18:45.strategy to make people talk the kind of country you want to live in.
:18:46. > :18:50.Do they still feel like underdogs with today's pulls? Yes, because
:18:51. > :18:55.Labour's problem electorally is that all those votes are piled up in the
:18:56. > :19:00.wrong places. You can be an 38-40, an amazing position that Ed Miliband
:19:01. > :19:06.would kill for, but it could all be in Labour strongholds. They know
:19:07. > :19:11.that. What they wanted at the beginning was furthest to be about
:19:12. > :19:18.Brexit because of the unfortunate fact that it is not about Brexit.
:19:19. > :19:23.Iain, are people wobbling now? There is a wobble going on, absolutely.
:19:24. > :19:27.There are people who think that the last ten days have been a disaster
:19:28. > :19:33.for the Conservatives. Not necessarily the last few days, but
:19:34. > :19:38.certainly the U-turn. It was not a well thought out policy. Everybody
:19:39. > :19:41.can see that. Believe it or not, there are parts of the Conservative
:19:42. > :19:49.campaign headquarters that don't talk to other parts. So who is
:19:50. > :19:55.getting the blame for that? Conservative candidate are blaming
:19:56. > :19:59.Nick Timothy for that. In the end, the buck has to stop with Theresa
:20:00. > :20:05.May, but there are a lot of unhappy people about how this manifesto was
:20:06. > :20:12.drawn up some the policies in it. There is nothing eye-catching in it.
:20:13. > :20:15.Jennifer, do you think people will look at this week of the election
:20:16. > :20:20.and say this was when everything changed? Clearly, you are speaking
:20:21. > :20:24.first and foremost as a Manchester citizen, but with your political
:20:25. > :20:29.editor hat on, do you think this will be the week when the election
:20:30. > :20:33.changed, or will it be sucked into the overall campaign and people will
:20:34. > :20:36.revert to normal? I think it is going to change the narrative of it.
:20:37. > :20:40.If at the start of the week, people were talking about the Dementor tax
:20:41. > :20:46.and social care, at the end of the week we are talking about Isis and
:20:47. > :20:54.insecurity -- people were talking about the dementia tax. There are
:20:55. > :20:58.only two weeks to go. It is difficult to say. We all thought the
:20:59. > :21:03.Jo Cox murder in the referendum was a game changer. I thought that was
:21:04. > :21:06.it for Leave, because however it pans out, people will associate the
:21:07. > :21:10.person that did this with Leave. It didn't work out like that. So it is
:21:11. > :21:15.difficult to sit here now and say this is what will happen. I think
:21:16. > :21:18.the Conservatives will make this a presidential campaign. They will try
:21:19. > :21:23.and get Brexit back onto the agenda. That is what this election was
:21:24. > :21:27.supposed to be about. David Davis was supposed to make a big speech
:21:28. > :21:32.about that today. I assume he didn't because he didn't want to deflect
:21:33. > :21:36.attention from Jeremy Corbyn. Paul, do you think these polls reflect
:21:37. > :21:39.where Labour is now and how well they could do? I have always thought
:21:40. > :21:43.it would be relatively easy for Labour to get to 35 with a radical
:21:44. > :21:51.programme on national security and economics. Better than Ed Miliband?
:21:52. > :21:55.That is why I am a called in support. Beyond that, it is a
:21:56. > :21:58.question of building alliances in the centre. The striking thing about
:21:59. > :22:07.the polls is the total squeeze of everybody else. Amazingly, this has
:22:08. > :22:09.become about red versus blue. That is where we have this phenomenon
:22:10. > :22:17.himself. Thank you all. In a week when all eyes have
:22:18. > :22:20.been on domestic news, the extraordinary narrative
:22:21. > :22:22.unfolding in America. Today, it emerged that
:22:23. > :22:25.President Trump's son in law Jared Kushner is under scrutiny
:22:26. > :22:28.by the FBI as part of its He's being investigated
:22:29. > :22:30.because of meetings held in December with the Russian
:22:31. > :22:32.ambassador amongst others. The twist comes as former Director
:22:33. > :22:35.of the FBI, James Comey, is himself due to testify before
:22:36. > :22:37.the Senate Intelligence Committee. He was fired earlier this month
:22:38. > :22:40.by Donald Trump as he was trying to look into allegations
:22:41. > :22:43.of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia
:22:44. > :22:44.during the election. The president is facing claims
:22:45. > :22:46.he tried to interfere Some are starting to
:22:47. > :22:53.talk of impeachment. Our correspondent Paul Wood
:22:54. > :22:55.has broken several key developments on this story,
:22:56. > :22:57.and reports now on the state Russia, if you're listening,
:22:58. > :23:08.I hope you're able to find The entire thing has
:23:09. > :23:16.been a witchhunt, and What the hell is going
:23:17. > :23:34.on with Trump and Russia? So far, there is precious
:23:35. > :23:38.little evidence, The central allegation
:23:39. > :23:47.against President Trump is that his campaign colluded
:23:48. > :23:50.with Russia to hack leading The truth, the whole
:23:51. > :23:55.truth and nothing but the truth, There are now five separate
:23:56. > :23:59.congressional inquiries The former director
:24:00. > :24:05.of the CIA spoke to one. It should be clear to everyone that
:24:06. > :24:07.Russia brazenly interfered in our 2016 presidential election
:24:08. > :24:11.process and that they undertook these activities despite our strong
:24:12. > :24:13.protests and explicit warning That is the unified judgment
:24:14. > :24:24.of all the US intelligence agencies. I first heard about Russia
:24:25. > :24:26.interfering in the US election One of Donald Trump's Republican
:24:27. > :24:33.opponents sent me to meet someone who had retired from the US
:24:34. > :24:35.intelligence community. "You know", this former spy said
:24:36. > :24:39.to me, "We've just had a recording from one of our allies that shows
:24:40. > :24:41.the Russians trying to help Whether that recording or any
:24:42. > :24:49.recording like it really exists is the subject of the many
:24:50. > :24:55.investigations into what relationship the Trump campaign
:24:56. > :24:57.have with the Kremlin. But it is the bedrock assumption
:24:58. > :25:00.in these investigations that the Russians did interfere
:25:01. > :25:02.in the election, and they did it The focus is now on the former
:25:03. > :25:11.national security adviser Michael Flynn, the former campaign
:25:12. > :25:17.manager Paul Manafort, Trump's friend Roger Stone
:25:18. > :25:18.and Trump's son-in-law What did the President's
:25:19. > :25:25.men actually do? This man saw many of
:25:26. > :25:28.the top-secret transcripts of Trump's people talking
:25:29. > :25:30.to the Russians. You had the top classified
:25:31. > :25:38.clearances, and you saw many of the intercepts that are now
:25:39. > :25:41.the subject of fierce speculation Was there any evidence of collusion
:25:42. > :25:44.between the Trump campaign From the things I saw,
:25:45. > :25:50.there is nothing like that, and nor would you expect
:25:51. > :26:02.there to be. The Russians know we're listening
:26:03. > :26:07.and others know we're listening. So if you're going to do
:26:08. > :26:09.something terribly nefarious, That's a problem for Trump's
:26:10. > :26:12.critics, There have been a string
:26:13. > :26:15.of intelligence chiefs coming to committee hearings,
:26:16. > :26:17.and they have seen no Would it not have emerged
:26:18. > :26:21.by now if it was there? I have not seen a string of them
:26:22. > :26:24.coming before the committees They've said that it's had no
:26:25. > :26:30.effect on the election, but they didn't say
:26:31. > :26:34.there was no collusion. That's why we're having
:26:35. > :26:36.these investigations. That's why they have
:26:37. > :26:43.a special prosecutor. Another key allegation is that
:26:44. > :26:46.Russian criminals laundered money through Trump businesses,
:26:47. > :26:49.and that led to a relationship About 13 years ago,
:26:50. > :27:00.I was billions of dollars in debt. As Trump told viewers of his show
:27:01. > :27:03.The Apprentice, he bounced back. His businesses had gone
:27:04. > :27:06.bankrupt four times. Congressional investigators
:27:07. > :27:11.are trying to find out They're trying to find out who owns
:27:12. > :27:16.apartments in Trump buildings. Often, the real ownership is hidden
:27:17. > :27:21.under layers of shell companies. The working assumption
:27:22. > :27:24.is that the Russian mafia and the Russian state are often
:27:25. > :27:28.the same thing. Jonathan Winer was one of the US
:27:29. > :27:35.government's leading experts It would be a terrible thing
:27:36. > :27:40.if someone who was president of the United States knowingly
:27:41. > :27:42.profited off laundering It would be even worse if
:27:43. > :27:49.the President of the United States' business profited off laundering
:27:50. > :27:56.money for the Russian state. It is not the safety, stability,
:27:57. > :28:02.security of the American people, it is the advancement
:28:03. > :28:05.of the policies and goals of an adversary, and a serious
:28:06. > :28:10.adversary over a long time. So if that happened, that's
:28:11. > :28:12.something we need to know about, and the people involved need
:28:13. > :28:22.to be held accountable. President Trump also faces claims
:28:23. > :28:24.that Russian intelligence filmed him with prostitutes,
:28:25. > :28:27.and so he is vulnerable What are you looking for in this
:28:28. > :28:36.year's Miss Universe? Well, we have as good as I've ever
:28:37. > :28:39.seen in terms of beauty. It was during the Miss Universe
:28:40. > :28:46.pageant in Moscow that the blackmail Trump is alleged to have paid
:28:47. > :28:51.prostitutes to urinate on a bed That incendiary claim was made
:28:52. > :28:58.by a former MI6 spy, I was one of the first journalists
:28:59. > :29:03.to get a look at his now famous The White House calls
:29:04. > :29:17.Steele's dossier fake news. The President's supporters
:29:18. > :29:19.say he's a germophobe The president himself said of course
:29:20. > :29:24.he knew there'd be cameras There remains no proof
:29:25. > :29:34.that the Kremlin does Still, even before the Steele
:29:35. > :29:39.dossier was published, I heard from two different sources
:29:40. > :29:43.that the Russians had "kompromat", It's possible that all
:29:44. > :29:49.these separate sources to the Russian
:29:50. > :29:53.intelligence services. It could be a warning -
:29:54. > :29:59."This is what we have on you". Or it could be what the Russians
:30:00. > :30:02.call "provokazia", a provocation or lie designed to confuse people,
:30:03. > :30:08.something to inoculate Mr Trump against all the other
:30:09. > :30:16.allegations he faces. as if the Kremlin does
:30:17. > :30:20.have a hold over him. Here he is with the Russian foreign
:30:21. > :30:24.minister and ambassador. No, say his supporters,
:30:25. > :30:27.this is the behaviour of a man The most deadly charge against Trump
:30:28. > :30:42.concerns his actions as president. Did he tell the then FBI
:30:43. > :30:44.director James Comey to kill James has become
:30:45. > :30:52.more famous than me. Trump greets Comey Godfather-style,
:30:53. > :30:59.with a kiss on the cheek... ...Just a few months
:31:00. > :31:08.before he sacked him. The former FBI director has
:31:09. > :31:10.apparently claimed this was done because he refused to pledge
:31:11. > :31:12.loyalty to the president. Trump has reportedly
:31:13. > :31:14.called Comey a "nut job". is that he has a flair
:31:15. > :31:27.for the dramatic, and he has in previous open testimonies
:31:28. > :31:30.in Congress spun dramatic stories So I can certainly see that
:31:31. > :31:38.what is coming is a dramatic moment where Comey lays out his side
:31:39. > :31:40.of events and his interactions with Trump, and we'll see
:31:41. > :31:42.where the investigations Obstruction of justice was the first
:31:43. > :31:47.charge in the articles
:31:48. > :31:48.of impeachment it's the cover-up that always gets
:31:49. > :31:58.you, not the original crime. People are saying things privately
:31:59. > :32:01.that they are not saying publicly. There's a lot of discussion
:32:02. > :32:05.about impeachment. Is that just the Democrats,
:32:06. > :32:07.or is this both sides? Of course there's
:32:08. > :32:08.conversations going on. You don't know exactly who's
:32:09. > :32:17.in those conversations. I've heard around town, I've no idea
:32:18. > :32:20.if there's any truth in it, that there's talk about a grand deal
:32:21. > :32:23.where Pence becomes president but there's a conversation
:32:24. > :32:25.with the Democrats about what would be on the agenda
:32:26. > :32:28.and if it had to come to this, everybody understands
:32:29. > :32:30.that the country is in a constitutional crisis,
:32:31. > :32:36.which we are. The President's defenders say
:32:37. > :32:39.that is pure fantasy. Look at the way I've
:32:40. > :32:43.been treated lately. To official Washington,
:32:44. > :32:45.it's very suspicious, but official Washington hasn't liked
:32:46. > :32:47.Donald Trump He's an honest man, and I think
:32:48. > :32:54.basically, he's going to be discovered
:32:55. > :32:56.to be an honest man. He'll probably be the most
:32:57. > :32:58.investigated president since Richard Nixon,
:32:59. > :33:00.but don't look at a guy Look at him over the long run
:33:01. > :33:04.and over the long run, Donald Trump will, I think,
:33:05. > :33:16.transcend his enemies. Trump's supporters say
:33:17. > :33:20.he is the victim of a conspiracy within the intelligence agencies
:33:21. > :33:25.to overturn the election result. His enemies believe
:33:26. > :33:38.he was long ago bought No evidence of that has yet emerged,
:33:39. > :33:42.but it would be a bitter irony for the president if he were brought
:33:43. > :33:45.down not by something in his past, but by his efforts
:33:46. > :33:49.to fight the accusations. Let's bring you back to this
:33:50. > :33:51.election. In this election, how do we know
:33:52. > :33:54.what really matters to people? The old certainties are gone -
:33:55. > :33:56.tribal loyalties shattered, People are less likely to vote
:33:57. > :34:00.blindly for the party of their parents -
:34:01. > :34:03.and factors such as age, geography, and education are emerging
:34:04. > :34:06.as the new dividing lines. Over the course of the
:34:07. > :34:16.campaign Katie Razzall is looking at some of
:34:17. > :34:18.these divisions in 21st For tonight's report she travelled
:34:19. > :34:23.from East Renfrewshire to Glasgow to examine where the faultlines lie
:34:24. > :34:25.on the issue of We're going to meet a mare who gave
:34:26. > :34:30.birth a couple of days ago. Conservative used to be
:34:31. > :34:32.a dirty word in Scotland. That is the sweetest
:34:33. > :34:35.thing I've ever seen. The party was branded one of horse
:34:36. > :34:38.riding, game shooting Bozena Bienkowska isn't that,
:34:39. > :34:46.though this East Renfrewshire farmer does ride her much-loved horses
:34:47. > :34:49.and has voted Tory in the past. She wants Scotland to
:34:50. > :34:52.stay part of the UK. Does this issue divide
:34:53. > :34:54.people, divide families? Within the family,
:34:55. > :35:04.we feel deeply divided. During the last referendum,
:35:05. > :35:06.I knew people that sold their houses and moved back to England
:35:07. > :35:09.because of the hostility. We all have different opinions,
:35:10. > :35:12.but my brother Chris seems to be most passionate about it,
:35:13. > :35:15.so if you'd like to speak to him, A recent YouGov poll
:35:16. > :35:21.found that this election, nine out of ten voters who don't
:35:22. > :35:24.want independence will opt Three quarters of Yes
:35:25. > :35:27.voters will vote SNP, I have no interest in independence
:35:28. > :35:41.and I'm glad they voted against it. Most of us didn't want
:35:42. > :35:45.to speak up in case... Well, because you'd
:35:46. > :35:48.get a tirade of abuse. At the time we lost the vote,
:35:49. > :35:52.I was quite happy to leave it five, ten years until the Scottish
:35:53. > :35:54.population moved again There was no immediate
:35:55. > :36:01.rush to have one. But the thing of being taken out
:36:02. > :36:04.of the EU against the wishes of the Scottish people,
:36:05. > :36:07.who voted 62% for staying in the EU, meant that the independence vote
:36:08. > :36:09.should happen again. I didn't want Brexit and I certainly
:36:10. > :36:14.don't want a second referendum. We've already voted
:36:15. > :36:18.to stay and that's it. Because the politicians are very
:36:19. > :36:20.loud and it is the ticket they've been running with,
:36:21. > :36:23.they can't put it down because what's the point of the SNP
:36:24. > :36:27.if they don't have independence? Which political party do you believe
:36:28. > :36:30.will safeguard the union? I would hate to
:36:31. > :36:37.separate from the UK. I'm quite happy to be part of
:36:38. > :36:41.the British Isles, just not the UK. Well, you haven't really got
:36:42. > :36:43.the choice unless you got East Renfrewshire is a Tory
:36:44. > :36:53.and Labour target seat. It was Labour's from 1997
:36:54. > :36:57.and is the SNP's now. It's only three years
:36:58. > :37:01.since the independence referendum, with another one mooted
:37:02. > :37:05.and creating tensions. On the nationalist side,
:37:06. > :37:07.the No vote brought about the overwhelming SNP triumphs
:37:08. > :37:11.at the last general election. This time round, there's
:37:12. > :37:13.a sense that unionists may want to send a message,
:37:14. > :37:16.and that could benefit the party that spent decades in the Scottish
:37:17. > :37:20.political wilderness. In the polling done since the last
:37:21. > :37:25.general election, though the SNP is still way in front,
:37:26. > :37:29.its trajectory has been downwards. The Conservatives, from a low base,
:37:30. > :37:32.have seen a steady rise. The party's nearly doubled its vote
:37:33. > :37:35.share, mainly at the expense The problem is, for me
:37:36. > :37:41.and a lot of people like me, if you're not going to vote SNP,
:37:42. > :37:44.you're not terribly sure Gordon Canning is a member of East
:37:45. > :37:49.Renfrewshire's Mearns Golf Academy. But efforts by the Scottish
:37:50. > :37:54.Conservatives to ensure that they're seen as the party most in favour
:37:55. > :37:57.of the union appear Could you ever bring
:37:58. > :38:02.yourself to vote for them? Is that a difficult thing
:38:03. > :38:06.to say in Scotland? Yeah, it's a difficult thing
:38:07. > :38:09.for someone who's never voted Tory before to say that they may vote
:38:10. > :38:11.Tory. Because I want the SNP to be aware
:38:12. > :38:24.that there are a large number of people in Scotland who do not
:38:25. > :38:27.want another Using Brexit as an excuse
:38:28. > :38:33.for another independence The Conservatives haven't
:38:34. > :38:44.necessarily been the most Because Labour is no longer
:38:45. > :38:52.a credible opposition. Which means people are more willing
:38:53. > :38:58.to vote Conservative? And have you ever voted
:38:59. > :39:01.Conservative before? And how do you usually vote,
:39:02. > :39:09.if you don't mind me asking? And will you vote
:39:10. > :39:12.for them this time? Because I want to vote tactically
:39:13. > :39:24.to try and keep the SNP out. 12 miles away, Glasgow
:39:25. > :39:27.is nationalist heartland. The city voted Yes in 2014,
:39:28. > :39:32.and all its seats went SNP But at this month's local elections,
:39:33. > :39:36.even here, the Conservatives I find it strange because I don't
:39:37. > :39:42.know if you've noticed in the last week, but in the East End of Glasgow
:39:43. > :39:45.they elected Tory councillors, I have to be honest with you,
:39:46. > :39:59.it's quite impressive that the place that has the lowest life expectancy
:40:00. > :40:01.in Western Europe decided we needed Chrissy Ross comperes comedy
:40:02. > :40:04.night at the Yesbar, renamed in the run-up
:40:05. > :40:06.to the elect independence vote. Although we have a very inclusive
:40:07. > :40:09.culture in Scotland, we have a very divided one
:40:10. > :40:12.times as well. I wouldn't say it's
:40:13. > :40:14.along sectarian lines. It's very much pro and anti union
:40:15. > :40:18.lines that it's drawn across. Do you feel that flag-waving
:40:19. > :40:20.nationalism on both sides is infusing the debate more
:40:21. > :40:24.and more here? It's definitely made it
:40:25. > :40:27.become more entrenched. People are now taking
:40:28. > :40:29.a position they feel they can't come back from,
:40:30. > :40:31.which I don't feel There also seems to be a problem
:40:32. > :40:34.where people see themselves I vote SNP because I see myself
:40:35. > :40:41.as European and I'm a little bit dismayed at the fact that we're
:40:42. > :40:43.leaving the EU. At Glasgow's Grand Ole Opry, plenty
:40:44. > :40:53.are in step with the SNP's vision. But from those who dance
:40:54. > :40:56.to the union tune, a sense, perhaps, of why, even in the city Labour
:40:57. > :40:58.dominated for so long, I'm from an area of Glasgow,
:40:59. > :41:07.Shettleston, which voted It's never been Conservative
:41:08. > :41:14.in my lifetime as far as I know. So things have changed
:41:15. > :41:19.locally recently. You've voted Labour
:41:20. > :41:21.and Lib Dem in the past. Could you ever vote
:41:22. > :41:23.Conservative, do you think? As I said, I haven't made up my mind
:41:24. > :41:28.how I'm going to vote. But it's the union you'll
:41:29. > :41:30.be thinking about? I would like to vote Labour,
:41:31. > :41:35.because I predominantly have. I've got a nagging doubt
:41:36. > :41:37.about Jeremy Corbyn and some of his allies in the back
:41:38. > :41:51.of my mind. The divisions in Scotland may
:41:52. > :41:53.still be focused around the question of independence,
:41:54. > :41:55.but the SNP's dominance this election still appears unassailable
:41:56. > :41:57.across much of the country. The latest YouGov poll
:41:58. > :42:05.puts the party on 42%. But unless Labour can
:42:06. > :42:06.turn its fortunes around, unlike in 2015, the nationalists'
:42:07. > :42:09.main challenger this time Katie Razzall with that undivided
:42:10. > :42:24.Britain. But before we go, NASA's Juno probe
:42:25. > :42:27.has just delivered these dramatic images of Jupiter's south pole,
:42:28. > :42:29.complete with earth sized cyclones and its own northern
:42:30. > :43:20.lights style aurora. Hello there, the heat we seen here
:43:21. > :43:26.in the UK in the last couple of days will come and eight in a country
:43:27. > :43:27.break. Some thunderstorms, potentially torrential