:00:00. > :00:08.The last few days of this strange election have been
:00:09. > :00:14.But 50 long days ago, a very different campaign began.
:00:15. > :00:16.It is a choice between me and Jeremy Corbyn.
:00:17. > :00:22.I'll give you the figure in a moment.
:00:23. > :00:25.# I'm going to shoot you right down #.
:00:26. > :00:26.What's the naughtiest thing you ever did?
:00:27. > :00:31.Me and my friends sort of used to run through the fields of wheat.
:00:32. > :00:33.The farmers weren't too pleased about that.
:00:34. > :00:44.He will find himself alone and naked in the negotiating chamber.
:00:45. > :00:51.I think it's a shame the Prime Minister hasn't
:00:52. > :00:54.And I don't think seven politicians just arguing amongst themselves
:00:55. > :01:16.Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn...
:01:17. > :01:18.Hello. The talking is over.
:01:19. > :01:21.The election is imminent, you get your say at last.
:01:22. > :01:23.And, for our final pre-election campaign reflections,
:01:24. > :01:25.we are at the Octagon Theatre in Bolton this evening.
:01:26. > :01:27.This is the town where it all started.
:01:28. > :01:29.Theresa May came to this relatively marginal seat
:01:30. > :01:31.of Bolton North East to start her campaign
:01:32. > :01:34.And boy, in doing so, she kicked off yet another
:01:35. > :01:38.event in the series of turbulent national votes of recent years.
:01:39. > :01:40.This has been an unpredictable, rule-busting campaign
:01:41. > :01:42.and one in which many voters appear to have reaffirmed
:01:43. > :01:45.a desire for change, and have shown a willingness to
:01:46. > :01:53.By coming here, Theresa May put northern English towns
:01:54. > :01:55.at the centre of the battle, showering attention on the voters
:01:56. > :01:59.who it seemed were fed up, who had voted Brexit and had flirted
:02:00. > :02:10.It seems an age ago, but Theresa May came here just after Easter. Back
:02:11. > :02:16.then, you'd have guessed that people want a bit of calm anded that her
:02:17. > :02:20.favourite phrase would be a winner. At the time, in places like this
:02:21. > :02:26.Bolton, it seemed Labour support could ebb away. But, after a slow
:02:27. > :02:30.start things began to change more in this campaign than anyone could have
:02:31. > :02:35.imagined. The Labour recovery began. The volatile voter phenomenon was
:02:36. > :02:43.back. After a dull first half, the fight became interesting. Perhaps
:02:44. > :02:47.most remarkable has been the apparent reemergence of two party
:02:48. > :02:52.politics. The old beasts the Tory and Labour Party have have each in
:02:53. > :02:55.their own way adapted to life in the era of populism and discontent.
:02:56. > :03:00.Theresa May wanted to kill Ukip and has yielded some ground to it.
:03:01. > :03:07.Jeremy Corbyn has populous elements in his programme. Neither party
:03:08. > :03:12.bears much resemblance to their 2015 incarnation. Both parties realise
:03:13. > :03:17.something is afoot and our clumsy old system has somehow managed to
:03:18. > :03:23.evolve. So how do the voters of Bolton see things now? Today, I
:03:24. > :03:29.visited a factory that makes disposable chamber pots for the NHS
:03:30. > :03:32.and export. I think it's unfair to finish university with so much
:03:33. > :03:36.prosperity, things you want to do with your life. You have massive
:03:37. > :03:40.debt hanging over you. Have trouble to get on property ladder. Have you
:03:41. > :03:44.been surprised there is so much, kind of, pick up to the Corbyn
:03:45. > :03:47.message during this campaign? I'm very surprised. Particularly, given
:03:48. > :03:50.the circumstances the country is in now and the things that are
:03:51. > :03:55.happening that Corbyn is doing so well. Is something afoot, do you
:03:56. > :03:58.think? Yes. The same with Brexit. People voted for change. You have to
:03:59. > :04:02.be careful. You can't just vote for change. You have to look at the
:04:03. > :04:06.policies and how they are going to move forward. You can't just vote
:04:07. > :04:10.for change. Are you optimistic? I'm probably more optimistic that Corbyn
:04:11. > :04:15.is making a late race only in that the fact that somebody who was so
:04:16. > :04:17.unfancied can now be closing in the polls, shakes up the political
:04:18. > :04:22.establishment. Shakes up the establishment? Yes. People can no
:04:23. > :04:26.longer think I can go with the policies. If Theresa May gets in she
:04:27. > :04:28.will have to think about how she structures her Government to ensure
:04:29. > :04:33.they she captures some of that unrest that has been seen. OK. You
:04:34. > :04:37.might not be surprised that many young workers in manufacturing end
:04:38. > :04:43.up supporting Labour. You won't find the same from older members of the
:04:44. > :04:47.local golf club. However, the surprising thing at this club is
:04:48. > :04:53.that while they won't vote for Mr Corbyn, they think he has a point or
:04:54. > :04:57.two. I think we all admire the principles that Jeremy Corbyn is
:04:58. > :05:01.putting across. Of course. You admire the principles Jeremy Corbyn
:05:02. > :05:04.put across? Exactly. You are all voting Tories you admire The
:05:05. > :05:09.principles. Some. We are senior people. We look back at on our life
:05:10. > :05:12.and look at what we had and how the community functioned. If you are
:05:13. > :05:16.from London there are plenty of opportunities. If you are from
:05:17. > :05:20.anywhere in the north of England, not just the north-west, you would
:05:21. > :05:25.fall back on, say, manufacturing. There is no manufacturing. So to
:05:26. > :05:28.reintroduce manufacturing back into the country post-Brexit would be an
:05:29. > :05:32.excellent things thing. It opens up the door for lots of opportunities.
:05:33. > :05:37.You look at his principles, yeah, you can't argue with them. Do you
:05:38. > :05:43.agree with that, Lorraine? I do. He has basically Labour principles,
:05:44. > :05:48.used to be, but he's too far - I don't agree with how he's so
:05:49. > :05:52.passive. We've got to stick up for yourself in this world. You can't
:05:53. > :05:59.let people ride rough shot over you. His views are the views of what
:06:00. > :06:03.everybody irrespective of what your political allegiance is, I think the
:06:04. > :06:10.views are what we all want. We all want them. But I don't think he can
:06:11. > :06:15.deliver them. It is a time when the country seems unusually divided and,
:06:16. > :06:18.yet, there does still seem to be a widely shared desire for some
:06:19. > :06:21.changing of the economic rules. It I ma be that the election contest is
:06:22. > :06:24.about who can best rise to the challenge.
:06:25. > :06:27.Well, two politicians from this area are with me at the Octagon Theatre.
:06:28. > :06:32.Yasmin Qureshi for Labour, was Shadow Justice Secretary
:06:33. > :06:36.And Nigel Evans for the Conservatives, and who has been
:06:37. > :06:48.Good evening to you both. Thank you. Now then, do you find in this area
:06:49. > :06:51.people are desperate for change or do they want stability? Your
:06:52. > :06:55.campaign was all about stability. Yours is more about change. What is
:06:56. > :07:00.it they want the thirst for change, we will start with you, Yasmin? Yes
:07:01. > :07:03.there is. For too long people feel they are not getting anything out of
:07:04. > :07:07.society. So, for example, you know, owning a home is difficult. Young
:07:08. > :07:11.people are leaving with mass i debts. Not being able to get on to
:07:12. > :07:14.the property ladder. Older people are are worried about what is
:07:15. > :07:19.happening to them. Also parents or people with children who are worried
:07:20. > :07:23.about classroom sizes, education. I sents sense there is a need for
:07:24. > :07:27.change. Right. Nigel, people voted for change in the Brexit referendum.
:07:28. > :07:32.You supported them in that. I certainly did to. The same thirst
:07:33. > :07:34.for change. Maybe saying we want more radical people than Theresa
:07:35. > :07:38.May? It depends what the change is. Brexit was the change in the
:07:39. > :07:43.north-west of England. What is the change here? Well, there's 11 seats
:07:44. > :07:48.in the north-west we are looking at with majorities of fewer than 5,000.
:07:49. > :07:52.Theresa May has been up here several times in the north-east and the
:07:53. > :07:56.north-west of England and she's come up here, not just for health, there
:07:57. > :08:01.are target seats here. Is it going to change? I mean, is she going to
:08:02. > :08:04.take loads of seats? Nigel first and Yasmin? All I can tell you, I
:08:05. > :08:08.visited seven seats during the general election campaign. It may be
:08:09. > :08:12.a snap election, it's been a long campaign, hasn't it. We are all
:08:13. > :08:15.grateful it's the eve of poll. I've heard the same thing time and time
:08:16. > :08:19.again, which is this - I voted Labour in the past, I've been Labour
:08:20. > :08:23.all my life, I'm not voting Labour this time. The one reason - Jeremy
:08:24. > :08:27.Corbyn. It's because they don't think that he is a proper Leader of
:08:28. > :08:32.the Labour Party. Theresa May's goal was to redraw the map of politics in
:08:33. > :08:36.England. Is she going to, Yasmin? No, she's going to. He had a false
:08:37. > :08:41.premise to start the election on the basis she needs more people to help
:08:42. > :08:44.her do Brexit. When the Labour Party, the official opposition,
:08:45. > :08:48.supported triggering Article 50 TB, it was a ruse she saw herself in
:08:49. > :08:52.opinion polls going ahead. I can walk this election. She is not going
:08:53. > :08:55.to. I will tell you why. When she came to Bolton she came in a
:08:56. > :08:59.helicopter answered and went to a private meeting. That does not
:09:00. > :09:03.impress people in the north. In this campaign - Isn't that true. Yeah,
:09:04. > :09:06.for ease of travel. You know why people do what they do. Jeremy and
:09:07. > :09:11.has been using buses. He has been using trains. Today, for example, he
:09:12. > :09:16.travelled from Glasgow down to London, 500 mile journey shechl was
:09:17. > :09:20.in a private jet. I hope it's a private jet made in the north-west
:09:21. > :09:25.of England. I will pose this one question to you. I thought Evan
:09:26. > :09:28.posed them. I'm interested in this. I've looked at a number of Labour
:09:29. > :09:33.leaflets in the north-west of England over the past six weeks, if
:09:34. > :09:42.Jeremy was such an amazing leader, one that I have to say your own MP
:09:43. > :09:50.colleagues have tried to get rid of, why have so many Labour candidates
:09:51. > :09:53.not mentioned Jeremy Corbyn on the leaflets Mrs May hasn't mentioned
:09:54. > :09:58.the conservation it's all about me, strong and stable. I will put a
:09:59. > :10:01.curse on both your houses. Large parts of the north of England,
:10:02. > :10:05.sections of Bolton neglected that have been left to run down. Both
:10:06. > :10:08.your parties have failed the north of England to some extent, haven't
:10:09. > :10:13.they? What you have seen, through the Brexit vote, through other forms
:10:14. > :10:17.of protest vote, you have seen people say - we want to be listened
:10:18. > :10:21.to in parts of the country like this. A protest against you both?
:10:22. > :10:25.With the manifesto we produced in the Labour Party, it's a fantastic
:10:26. > :10:29.manifesto, we talk about investment. We talk about banks. I asked about
:10:30. > :10:32.your record though. Will you concede you had made a mistake and have let
:10:33. > :10:38.things drift too much in parts of the country? In the Labour Party,,
:10:39. > :10:41.when it was in Government, we had real expenditure, invested in the
:10:42. > :10:45.country. Invested in our hospitals, education and our schools. We
:10:46. > :10:50.created jobs. OK. I don't think that we left the north-west behind. You
:10:51. > :10:54.don't. It was all fine until the Tories got in in 2010? No, I'm not
:10:55. > :10:58.saying that. There is a big change taking place. The current Labour
:10:59. > :11:02.Party manifesto taps into that and recognises the fact that there needs
:11:03. > :11:05.to be a change. I will concede there are pockets of def prevagus
:11:06. > :11:08.throughout the whole of the north-west of England. There are
:11:09. > :11:12.people there who feel nobody has been listening to them they are the
:11:13. > :11:15.just managing people and those who are hardly managing at all. They are
:11:16. > :11:19.the ones who I think are looking - they voted Brexit. They are the ones
:11:20. > :11:23.looking to the opportunities that leaving the European Union is going
:11:24. > :11:28.to give to areas like the north-west of England. That's why I'm really
:11:29. > :11:31.pleased we will have a trade commissioner for the north-west
:11:32. > :11:35.going out there to win contracts and creating jobs in the north-west. You
:11:36. > :11:36.managed to make a bit of your own party pitches at the end there.
:11:37. > :11:40.Thank you both very much indeed. I wonder if the last day
:11:41. > :11:42.of a campaign makes much difference? You'd think most minds have been
:11:43. > :11:46.made up but there is also the small matter of exciting the voters enough
:11:47. > :11:49.to make them turn out tomorrow, so certainly the candidates behave
:11:50. > :11:52.as if the last day matters. Theresa May was in London, Norwich,
:11:53. > :11:54.Southampton and the West Midlands. Tim Farron was in Solihull,
:11:55. > :11:58.St Albans and Twickenham. And Jeremy Corbyn was leading
:11:59. > :12:04.multiple rallies across the country. Our political editor, Nick Watt,
:12:05. > :12:07.spent his last day of the campaign, With the clock ticking down
:12:08. > :12:21.to that brief moment voters take charge,
:12:22. > :12:25.Jeremy Corbyn is in his element. A ripple of Corbynmania could be
:12:26. > :12:35.heard across the country today. As the Labour leader visited
:12:36. > :12:40.Scotland, England and here in Wales. As a train buff, Jeremy Corbyn
:12:41. > :12:42.naturally travelled I think some people go
:12:43. > :12:47.around in private jets, On his train travels over the past
:12:48. > :12:52.month-and-a-half, Jeremy Corbyn has At the start, he occasionally
:12:53. > :13:02.struggled to enthuse voters. who sometimes had other matters
:13:03. > :13:04.on their minds as Theresa May enjoyed sky high ratings,
:13:05. > :13:06.and then the Tories had The Tory party thought it was going
:13:07. > :13:19.to be a walk in the park, in the park, they just thought -
:13:20. > :13:22.we're in a lovely park They just thought a walk
:13:23. > :13:26.in the park, what have We've got something very
:13:27. > :13:29.important to offer here. And so the crowds have turned out
:13:30. > :13:33.with similar chants and "I love JC" Just like this rally
:13:34. > :13:36.on the North Wales coast So another great reception
:13:37. > :13:47.for Jeremy Corbyn. Here in Colwyn Bay he's
:13:48. > :13:50.at the halfway point of his tour Most of the seats he's visiting
:13:51. > :13:54.are not held by Labour. The signal he's trying to send
:13:55. > :13:56.is that he's reaching across. We know he can attract
:13:57. > :13:59.these sorts of crowds, the big challenge is -
:14:00. > :14:01.can he translate them into The tetchy Corbyn of old has
:14:02. > :14:06.mellowed and as he laps Friends say Jeremy Corbyn has
:14:07. > :14:19.relaxed into this election campaign. They talk of how he's
:14:20. > :14:21.rekindled the spirit If he wins this general election,
:14:22. > :14:29.which he would do comfortably if he won seats like this one here,
:14:30. > :14:33.it would be the most remarkable journey from a fringe figure
:14:34. > :14:35.in the Labour Party to Number Ten Even if he loses though,
:14:36. > :14:38.this general election campaign will have transformed his fortunes
:14:39. > :14:43.in the Labour Party and make it much more difficult
:14:44. > :14:46.for his opponents to dislodge him. In fact, this campaign has
:14:47. > :14:55.fired up his loyal guard. I was never into politicses
:14:56. > :14:59.because I never thought politicians were like normal
:15:00. > :15:10.people, until now. And Labour supporters,
:15:11. > :15:11.who originally had doubts I actually backed Andy Burnham
:15:12. > :15:15.in the leadership election. However, for me, the idealism
:15:16. > :15:17.of Corbyn is not just We can put these
:15:18. > :15:20.policies into practice. At the end of a gruelling day,
:15:21. > :15:28.hopping on and off trains, Jeremy Corbyn ended his campaign
:15:29. > :15:31.this evening close to his backyard, Whatever the result tomorrow,
:15:32. > :15:34.he believes he has changed the face Well, Nick is now at the site
:15:35. > :15:40.of the last Corbyn event, that rally in Islington,
:15:41. > :15:51.in North London. Nick, we should try to get the mood
:15:52. > :15:55.of both camps, let's start with Labour, what are they feeling this
:15:56. > :16:02.evening. It isn't every day that you've your poetry at a political
:16:03. > :16:05.campaign event but Jeremy Corbyn brought the Labour campaign to an
:16:06. > :16:13.end at the union Chapel in Islington by quoting Shelley, Ye are many,
:16:14. > :16:19.they feel so we know where he got his slogan from, I sense this ends
:16:20. > :16:23.the Labour camp in contented mood after Jeremy Corbyn exceeded
:16:24. > :16:27.expectations in his campaign. But they can read the polls like
:16:28. > :16:32.everyone else and the point to a clear Conservative win in this
:16:33. > :16:36.election. So I sense a mood in the Labour camp that whatever the result
:16:37. > :16:41.they believe Jeremy Corbyn will have changed the face of British politics
:16:42. > :16:46.in this campaign. His aides talk about how they have shifted the
:16:47. > :16:50.centre ground, that Labour manifesto with serious spending commitments,
:16:51. > :16:54.they say that went down very well so Labour can be a much bolder. If
:16:55. > :16:58.Jeremy Corbyn pulls this off he will have changed the face of British
:16:59. > :17:02.politics. If he doesn't, I think it is fair to say he may well have
:17:03. > :17:12.cemented his position within the party. And what are the
:17:13. > :17:17.conservatives feeling, presumably they have looked at the polls. Sends
:17:18. > :17:21.a much calmer mood among Conservative ministers after a
:17:22. > :17:25.fretful few weeks. They acknowledge the campaign has not been a glorious
:17:26. > :17:30.success but say that in recent weeks the mood and a reception on the
:17:31. > :17:35.doorstep has been much better than recent polls suggest. But there our
:17:36. > :17:41.nerves. Their heads say, all should be fine but in their hearts, they
:17:42. > :17:46.say, whose Brexit, who saw Donald Trump? One minister said to me,
:17:47. > :17:50.look, Jeremy Corbyn has been the dominant figure in this campaign
:17:51. > :17:54.which will help Labour in some aspects. But those ministers believe
:17:55. > :17:59.ultimately it will benefit them. This is what one nervous minister
:18:00. > :18:04.told me this evening. Whatever evidence piles up in our favour, it
:18:05. > :18:11.is still going to be a heart stopping moment at 10pm tomorrow
:18:12. > :18:15.night when the exit poll comes out. Nick, thank you very much.
:18:16. > :18:17.It's been quite a year for Theresa May.
:18:18. > :18:19.She seemed to exude a quiet authority in the aftermath
:18:20. > :18:21.of the referendum - in contrast to the bickering boys
:18:22. > :18:24.in her party who were scrapping it out for the top job.
:18:25. > :18:27.There was a lot of goodwill, as she embarked on a mission
:18:28. > :18:30.to recast her party away from the posh, to the ordinary.
:18:31. > :18:32.To rebuild Tory Britain in a post Brexit environment.
:18:33. > :18:35.But while she deftly positioned the party in a place that looked
:18:36. > :18:39.like it might own 80% of the political spectrum,
:18:40. > :18:41.she has not proved as deft at communicating.
:18:42. > :18:44.The election has evidently exposed a certain brittleness
:18:45. > :18:48.I suppose we'll find out which matters more -
:18:49. > :18:52.the strategy, or the ability to inspire in words.
:18:53. > :18:56.But we asked The Times writer Matthew Parris,
:18:57. > :18:58.an independent-minded Conservative supporter, to make a film,
:18:59. > :19:06.offering his view of Theresa May and her politics.
:19:07. > :19:11.Theresa May will not be the first Conservative Prime Minister to have
:19:12. > :19:15.travelled from a comfortable childhood in leafy rural
:19:16. > :19:19.England to the sooty brick hell of Downing Street.
:19:20. > :19:23.But the speed with which this has happened leaves an electorate
:19:24. > :19:27.still trying to colour in an almost blank picture of the character,
:19:28. > :19:37.I've met her, I've dined with her, I've discussed politics with her,
:19:38. > :19:40.but I still don't feel I know who Theresa May really
:19:41. > :19:51.In this film, we've set out to talk to people who've known her or worked
:19:52. > :19:55.with her at different times in her life, in search of what lies
:19:56. > :19:59.behind the steely gaze of the Sphinx of Maidenhead.
:20:00. > :20:03.At Oxford, she didn't join the posh set.
:20:04. > :20:05.As a friend she still keeps up with, Pat Frankland, explains.
:20:06. > :20:08.I think we were a little bit of a gang.
:20:09. > :20:16.One of my friends described it as a group she joined
:20:17. > :20:24.because we were all very normal and we didn't, sort of, stand out,
:20:25. > :20:29.Pat says the ultimate ambition had already dawned.
:20:30. > :20:33.She was very interested in politics even then,
:20:34. > :20:38.and she wanted to be an MP and she seems not to remember it,
:20:39. > :20:42.but I'm sure she told us she wanted to be Prime Minister.
:20:43. > :20:44.Her systematic approach to getting things done seems
:20:45. > :21:03.Well, she had a string of boyfriends and if they...
:21:04. > :21:07.well, they seemed to be more on trial I'd say than most things,
:21:08. > :21:11.She sometimes seemed to have them overlapping because we'd get kicked
:21:12. > :21:14.under the table if we started talking about the wrong film,
:21:15. > :21:17.and if it's one she'd seen with another boyfriend,
:21:18. > :21:20.she didn't want to go and see it again, when we were
:21:21. > :21:24.unfortunate enough to inspire the new boyfriend with it.
:21:25. > :21:30.Once Philip came on the scene, that was it, the others all disappeared.
:21:31. > :21:34.So it was very, very fast that that was the one.
:21:35. > :21:42.And he was very nice, but he seemed quite young.
:21:43. > :21:46.Those early dreams of breaking through as a woman in politics
:21:47. > :21:50.Baroness Jenkin, who co-founded with Theresa May
:21:51. > :21:54.an organisation called Women2Win, a Conservative Party project
:21:55. > :22:00.to increase the number of female Tory MPs, told me she carries
:22:01. > :22:02.on helping, pitching in with energy, but a kind
:22:03. > :22:06.One or two people have said that she has quite a kind
:22:07. > :22:14.But at the same time, very professionally.
:22:15. > :22:16.She wouldn't get emotionally involved with them.
:22:17. > :22:19.But I was struck earlier this year, when I was talking
:22:20. > :22:24.about her on something, and a woman came, wrote to me,
:22:25. > :22:27.and said, I've still got the letter, framed letter, that she wrote me
:22:28. > :22:34.So I think she was very well aware that for a lot of women, you know,
:22:35. > :22:36.the resilience that she has needs to be encouraged in others
:22:37. > :22:40.and I think that she was, you know, very much trying to give some
:22:41. > :22:42.of these women, not exactly backbone, but the kind
:22:43. > :22:47.Both colleagues and journalists seem to agree that she's generally
:22:48. > :22:52.content to let her work speak for itself.
:22:53. > :22:55.Well, my first impression of her was as a journalist and I've
:22:56. > :22:57.always rather admired the fact that Theresa May never wanted
:22:58. > :23:02.Actually, a lot of journalists found it very difficult
:23:03. > :23:07.because they could never get a story out of her.
:23:08. > :23:09.And I came to believe she's a very rare politician
:23:10. > :23:13.And I think that's quite an advantage.
:23:14. > :23:16.Well, I'm by nature a bit of a gossip and a bit of a,
:23:17. > :23:19.you know, I like a chat at the end of the day.
:23:20. > :23:24.I mean, she was, as I say, highly professional,
:23:25. > :23:27.but there was no - OK, let's kick our shoes off and,
:23:28. > :23:41.Is she personally, socially an easy colleague?
:23:42. > :23:46.She's funnier than her public image, sort of, suggests.
:23:47. > :23:49.On a car journey she's very good company,
:23:50. > :23:58.Nick Clegg, as Deputy Prime Minister, when Theresa May
:23:59. > :24:00.was Home Secretary, was never personally close, but he
:24:01. > :24:09.Unlike Sir Eric, he believes he spotted an early insecurity.
:24:10. > :24:11.My recollection is of someone who felt slightly overwhelmed
:24:12. > :24:14.by what she was being asked to do in the Home Office.
:24:15. > :24:16.When we announced all these highly controversial savings,
:24:17. > :24:20.there was something, sort of, especially meticulous,
:24:21. > :24:26.but slightly unsure as well about the way that she,
:24:27. > :24:32.sort of, pored over all the numbers in Number Ten.
:24:33. > :24:34.How about her emerging political philosophy, had Thatcher
:24:35. > :24:43.I don't know why not, though she was quite irritated
:24:44. > :25:00.Pipped to the post, I'm sure I remember that.
:25:01. > :25:05.I think Margaret always seemed quite harsh towards the common
:25:06. > :25:11.people, and I don't think Theresa would like that.
:25:12. > :25:13.But if she wasn't exactly a Thatcherite, what was she?
:25:14. > :25:25.She was meticulous about the trees, but how about the wood?
:25:26. > :25:29.Nick Clegg thinks she took refuge in detail and found her
:25:30. > :25:33.reluctant to talk alone without special advisers.
:25:34. > :25:43.I asked her not to bring the special advisers
:25:44. > :25:45.with her into the meetings that I used to have
:25:46. > :25:49.found it all rather disrupt, but I did find that,
:25:50. > :25:52.as a result, I could never get a decision out of her
:25:53. > :25:55.in the meetings because she'd have to go back and sort of,
:25:56. > :25:57.I assume, test her ideas and test my suggestions
:25:58. > :26:03.The most striking thing of all is how little she said or how
:26:04. > :26:07.little she displayed much interest in wider political issues.
:26:08. > :26:12.I don't think, I don't think I can recall a single instance,
:26:13. > :26:14.either in private meetings with her or in private conversations
:26:15. > :26:18.with her or around the Cabinet table, where she ever said anything
:26:19. > :26:22.interesting about or of interest in our economy.
:26:23. > :26:30.I think she has a major weakness, which is she's not very interested
:26:31. > :26:32.in business and she doesn't understand business terribly well,
:26:33. > :26:36.I suspect and I think neither does her inner circle.
:26:37. > :26:41.I think this, as we head into Brexit, will be a major issue.
:26:42. > :26:44.She needs to get an awful lot more sophisticated about giving
:26:45. > :26:55.I think in terms of, sort of, an organising vision for society,
:26:56. > :26:57.I'm not really persuaded there is much there.
:26:58. > :27:06.I offer myself as your Prime Minister.
:27:07. > :27:11.And if they are right and she lacks an organising vision, does she
:27:12. > :27:14.I asked Camilla Cavendish about those recent
:27:15. > :27:20.The manifesto promise on social policy for instance.
:27:21. > :27:23.I imagine that what will have happened is yes, she will have been
:27:24. > :27:26.pretty nervous about the reaction, that Lynton Crosby will have told
:27:27. > :27:29.her to get the barnacles off the boat, because it was becoming a
:27:30. > :27:31.distraction in the campaign, and she has backed down.
:27:32. > :27:34.That suggests to me that she may not have been as
:27:35. > :27:37.committed to the policy in the first place as I had assumed.
:27:38. > :27:39.Because to push a policy like that through you
:27:40. > :27:53.Intelligence comes in so many forms and perhaps general phrases about
:27:54. > :27:55.intellect are meaningless but I asked Anne Jenkin anyway.
:27:56. > :28:01.I mean, she's not obviously brilliant
:28:02. > :28:06.but she has a good enough mind to have got to Oxford at a time when it
:28:07. > :28:08.wasn't very easy, but she has an organised mind and
:28:09. > :28:13.I don't think it's a brilliant mind but does that matter?
:28:14. > :28:24.And even if Lady Jenkin is right, is it really more
:28:25. > :28:26.On the doorstep myself I found that the
:28:27. > :28:31.people among whom Theresa May's name really does help a Tory canvasser
:28:32. > :28:37.are precisely the kind of people she is always talking about.
:28:38. > :28:40.The middle middle classes, the lower middle classes, people who have a
:28:41. > :28:43.bit of a struggle, have to look for the next penny
:28:44. > :28:47.The people whose problems she thinks she understands better
:28:48. > :28:59.Nor should we overlook her moments of
:29:00. > :29:08.intellectual daring, too frequent to dismiss as untypical.
:29:09. > :29:10.That famous "nasty party" speech for instance, her
:29:11. > :29:12.fierce expression of sympathy for black youth.
:29:13. > :29:14.If you're black you're treated more harshly by the criminal
:29:15. > :29:16.justice system, then if you're white.
:29:17. > :29:19.Her visible outrage at what she sees as injustice, like when she
:29:20. > :29:21.refused to extradite the hacker Gary McKinnon to the United States.
:29:22. > :29:24.Or her astonishing speech laying into the Police
:29:25. > :29:31.If the federation does not start to turn itself around, you
:29:32. > :29:33.must not be under the impression that the government will let things
:29:34. > :29:43.I think if she's not treated with respect, but that
:29:44. > :29:48.And I suspect it would annoy you as well.
:29:49. > :29:53.Whether Theresa May is respected by those on
:29:54. > :29:56.the other side of the table may depend not so much on a majority,
:29:57. > :29:58.were she to get it, but her abilities.
:29:59. > :30:09.Does she have those negotiating skills?
:30:10. > :30:11.I think she has great control in the sense that if she
:30:12. > :30:13.doesn't get her way, she won't necessarily always
:30:14. > :30:15.reveal her inner fury but she clearly will not
:30:16. > :30:23.And again that's a strength but it also can be a bit of
:30:24. > :30:26.a weakness if you are having to deploy quicksilver
:30:27. > :30:42.charm and persuade people to do what you want.
:30:43. > :30:43.Eric Pickles made a surprising, possibly unintended
:30:44. > :30:53.I always found her very straightforward to deal with,
:30:54. > :30:55.providing you told her what you wanted to do
:30:56. > :30:58.and you didn't try to get yourself into a negotiation.
:30:59. > :31:00.Most people in politics are transactional.
:31:01. > :31:09.She is the worst person in the world to do a deal because she'll do
:31:10. > :31:14.But if you come to her, in a reasonable way,
:31:15. > :31:17.with a reasonable case, nine times out of ten she'll back you.
:31:18. > :31:19.Her unwillingness to horse trade was a
:31:20. > :31:22.close relative of another Theresa May tactic in meetings and
:31:23. > :31:36.Um, what she does do, and she does it with journalists
:31:37. > :31:44.as well, is that she uses silence to enormous effect.
:31:45. > :31:45.She doesn't always, she is not always
:31:46. > :31:49.Now what that means is that other people will fill the gap,
:31:50. > :31:53.and that, I think, is quite a useful strategy because she gets an awful
:31:54. > :32:02.One technique that I admired was, she did have the ability, which I
:32:03. > :32:05.remember sort of making a mental note that I must try to emulate
:32:06. > :32:08.myself, of just sort of saying no and sitting there and saying
:32:09. > :32:13.It's like, what's the point of having a meeting if you're not
:32:14. > :32:19.If her silence was a strength, I wanted to know her
:32:20. > :32:23.While she's lost her air of invincibility in this general
:32:24. > :32:25.election campaign, I wanted to know what people
:32:26. > :32:28.who knew her thought if
:32:29. > :32:30.she were to fall, what would bring her down.
:32:31. > :32:32.I was surprised by their near-unanimity.
:32:33. > :32:35.If she was to fail, it might be sometimes the ability to
:32:36. > :32:41.build a coalition inside the party to support.
:32:42. > :32:43.Perhaps it would be about not listening to a wide
:32:44. > :32:48.variety of voices, that would be my instinct.
:32:49. > :32:50.Even one of her oldest friends agrees.
:32:51. > :32:52.Do you see any character traits that might trip
:32:53. > :33:10.Ahem, possibly her lack of ability to form a gang.
:33:11. > :33:15.I don't know how that works with making her Cabinet
:33:16. > :33:19.into a team, though I'm told she's quite good to work for in the civil
:33:20. > :33:22.service sense, so she may be able to do that well.
:33:23. > :33:28.It gets worse as you get older, from my experience anyway!
:33:29. > :33:37.Is it her early life that holds the key or do reflections of
:33:38. > :33:42.She keeps her personality, her identity almost,
:33:43. > :33:55.Whether it's in the silences that act like a moat
:33:56. > :33:57.or close advisers, who act like archers firing from the walls,
:33:58. > :34:00.the urge to keep the world out needs explaining.
:34:01. > :34:02.You might behave as she does if you absolutely knew what to
:34:03. > :34:09.You might behave as she does, if you didn't have a clue.
:34:10. > :34:24.We have been out and about in this campaign -
:34:25. > :34:26.not quite as intended, as it happens, as a result of
:34:27. > :34:31.But it is fair to say that every town and city has a perspective
:34:32. > :34:36.and every visit away from home provides an insight.
:34:37. > :34:39.So we have brought two members of our election panel
:34:40. > :34:41.to Bolton to help us analyse the campaign.
:34:42. > :34:44.Polly Mackenzie, former advisor to Nick Clegg and writer
:34:45. > :34:45.and columnist and Corbyn supporter, Paul Mason.
:34:46. > :34:47.In London is Iain Dale, Tory-supporting LBC presenter.
:34:48. > :34:51.We thought we would keep him there away from Paul. Good evening to you
:34:52. > :34:55.all. Let us talk about Theresa May. We have had a Theresa May profile
:34:56. > :34:59.there. Iain, I want to start with you. When the manifesto came out, on
:35:00. > :35:02.this programme, said you didn't think much of the manifesto. I
:35:03. > :35:06.wonder what now, as you look back on this campaign, what you think went
:35:07. > :35:11.wrong with the campaign? Well, I think that film from Matthew Parris
:35:12. > :35:14.was absolutely outstanding. It told me things about Theresa May I didn't
:35:15. > :35:18.know. I thought it was really insightful. The problem with the
:35:19. > :35:22.manifesto was that it didn't compete with Labour's in terms of its
:35:23. > :35:27.vision, in terms of its eye-catching policies, in terms of its layout,
:35:28. > :35:30.indeed. There was nothing for Tory canvassers, I said at the time, to
:35:31. > :35:34.go out and sell on the doorstep. Because the social care policy
:35:35. > :35:38.unravelled within a few days, that always left them on the back foot.
:35:39. > :35:44.People are still mentioning that even today. To try to pretend that
:35:45. > :35:48.not having a cap and then having a cap wasn't a U-turn was just
:35:49. > :35:51.completely unsustainable. They were always on the back foot from that
:35:52. > :35:56.moment on. I think in the last week, since the Question Time debate, I
:35:57. > :35:58.think Theresa May has recovered her mojo somewhat and has come across in
:35:59. > :36:03.a different way to the previous couple of weeks. Polly, what do you
:36:04. > :36:08.think? What do you think about the Theresa May campaign? It clearly
:36:09. > :36:12.hasn't been what they wanted? No, it hasn't been. I think when Theresa
:36:13. > :36:18.May's really good is when she's absolutely on top of her brief. When
:36:19. > :36:22.she knows every in and out of. It on police reform, on gender equality
:36:23. > :36:26.she was really forensic on that. The problem with pulling together a
:36:27. > :36:30.manifesto for an entirety of Government in a few short weeks is
:36:31. > :36:34.that it require as lot more nip bellness and the ability to be
:36:35. > :36:38.flexible and get to grips with thing. They threw things in there at
:36:39. > :36:41.the last-minute, let's say something about fox-hunting and social care
:36:42. > :36:46.that looks brave. In the end it became a mish mash. When she's not
:36:47. > :36:54.fully briefed. When she's not in the detail, that is when the mistakes
:36:55. > :36:58.have been made. A fair point. Mr Crosby is supposed to know how to
:36:59. > :37:02.run a campaign? It didn't work in one or two other ones. I have been
:37:03. > :37:06.in the doorstep in constituencies in the north-west today. One thing
:37:07. > :37:11.nobody talks about is Theresa May. It's really interesting. As a Labour
:37:12. > :37:15.canvasser you get - I might not vote, I won't foe vote for you
:37:16. > :37:19.because of corp bin or a policy or people's circumstances change. There
:37:20. > :37:27.is no enthusiasm for her. I think... It's a strategic mistake. I know for
:37:28. > :37:34.a fact she's not - she walked into studios like this where I've been
:37:35. > :37:39.reporting, you have been presented, he she has won't meet a single
:37:40. > :37:45.ordinary person. We could count them on a couple of hands how many - she
:37:46. > :37:50.hasn't exposed herself to that amazing rocky rided that you go -
:37:51. > :37:54.that people like Corbyn go through where you meet real people. I want
:37:55. > :38:00.to ask an important question. This is the most important question for
:38:01. > :38:03.the country, perhaps. Is Theresa May better than the campaign has given
:38:04. > :38:07.the impression of her being? Many are saying, she hasn't looked good
:38:08. > :38:10.in this campaign. Is that because she isn't good or because the
:38:11. > :38:14.campaign has been rather badly handled, what do you think? She came
:38:15. > :38:17.into office as Prime Minister as a surprise. She wasn't expecting it to
:38:18. > :38:21.happen. It happened. We have nine months to judge her on as Prime
:38:22. > :38:24.Minister. I think she actually did really well in those nine months as
:38:25. > :38:29.Prime Minister. She proved she could doo-doo the job. She didn't come
:38:30. > :38:33.into TV studios every five minutes. Whiches her redcressor did quite a
:38:34. > :38:36.lot. A Prime Ministerial interview had a sense of occasion about that.
:38:37. > :38:40.I think that's probably right. I'm going to take Paul up on what he
:38:41. > :38:43.said, to say she hasn't met normal people during this campaign, of
:38:44. > :38:47.course what the TV cameras don't show is when she goes to factories
:38:48. > :38:50.she takes like 20 or 30 questions from the people in the audience.
:38:51. > :38:53.They are not always Conservative supporters. They are the people who
:38:54. > :38:58.work in the factories. Jeremy Corbyn in this campaign has been brilliant
:38:59. > :39:02.at attracting massive crowds of enthusiastic supporters. I haven't
:39:03. > :39:09.seen many occasions when he's interacted with normal people. He's
:39:10. > :39:16.done no phone-ins, for example. Paul, answer that point. The factory
:39:17. > :39:20.meetings are prevetted, they should be for security reasons. Let us
:39:21. > :39:24.leave that aside. If the Tories want to go into tomorrow believing
:39:25. > :39:27.Theresa May's invisibility because Jeremy Corbyn hasn't met any real
:39:28. > :39:32.people. Please, carry on, we will be happy for you to take the actions on
:39:33. > :39:38.that belief. Do you think Theresa May, Iain thinks she proved herself
:39:39. > :39:41.over nine months shechl may not be as confident in the campaign as
:39:42. > :39:44.Prime Minister, she's not as good on her feet and campaigning. What do
:39:45. > :39:48.you think it is though, do you think the campaign has been, sort of,
:39:49. > :39:51.unfairly... The problem with campaigns is they do require you to
:39:52. > :39:56.be a bit more human and relaxed and much more flexible. On your feet.
:39:57. > :40:01.Thinking very quickly? Exactly. I don't think that's your natural kind
:40:02. > :40:05.of... Does it matter for a Prime Minister. Do you needed to think on
:40:06. > :40:09.your feet or take a bit of time. What we expect you to do when
:40:10. > :40:13.campaigning but... Donald Trump's travel ban, for example, she was
:40:14. > :40:18.criticised for not being able to respond quickly. It took her hours
:40:19. > :40:22.and hours she needed a briefing from every department. That's her
:40:23. > :40:26.weakness. On the flip side of that, her strength is she does take a
:40:27. > :40:30.brief well. She thinks about things before she makes decisions. She's a
:40:31. > :40:34.Bert Prime Minister than she is campaigner. But the question is
:40:35. > :40:38.whether it's going - whether it damaged her leadership and that
:40:39. > :40:41.invisibility. Thank you very much. He we will come back for a longer
:40:42. > :40:53.discussion later. Chris Cook complains where the
:40:54. > :40:55.campaign has been fought and what that tells us. It's fitting that we
:40:56. > :41:01.give Chris one last outing. Can we learn something
:41:02. > :41:03.about what the parties are expecting tomorrow from where their leaders
:41:04. > :41:07.have been campaigning? If there is, the BBC
:41:08. > :41:09.Newsnight campaign tracker So to start, let's return be
:41:10. > :41:14.to a familiar graph. Each dot here represents
:41:15. > :41:19.a constituency where The furthest left seats
:41:20. > :41:24.are the safest Labour seats in 2015, the furthest right ones
:41:25. > :41:33.are the safest Tory seats from 2015. The most marginial ones
:41:34. > :41:36.are the ones in the middle. Looking vertically, the higher up
:41:37. > :41:39.seats are ones where Ukip got Now, these rings mark out
:41:40. > :41:42.where Theresa May has held the campaign visits since the Tory
:41:43. > :41:52.manifesto launch a month ago. more ambitious in her
:41:53. > :41:55.campaigning in areas She goes much further left
:41:56. > :41:59.in the higher Ukip areas, at the top of the chart,
:42:00. > :42:02.than she goes in in the low Ukip areas, at the bottom of the chart am
:42:03. > :42:06.can you use this chart to mark out the edges of what the Tories seem
:42:07. > :42:09.to think is possible. I suggest they imply the zone
:42:10. > :42:11.of gains is something like this. They seem to be targeting
:42:12. > :42:14.between around 30 and 50 extra seats Now, Ms May has only been
:42:15. > :42:18.to Scotland a few times, but trips by Ruth Davidson,
:42:19. > :42:20.the Scottish Tory leader, imply they're going for around
:42:21. > :42:23.ten seats up there. So it looks like the Tories
:42:24. > :42:25.are aiming for around Jeremy Corbyn's campaign though
:42:26. > :42:31.suggests something rather different. First, he's going to a lot
:42:32. > :42:34.of very safe Labour seats But that zone where Theresa May's
:42:35. > :42:54.been fighting, not so much. So we can't really easily draw
:42:55. > :42:57.in a similar sort of guesstimate about where he thinks
:42:58. > :42:59.the campaign is. It might be worth joining
:43:00. > :43:01.up a few dots here. So the first thing to note is,
:43:02. > :43:05.local TV news bulletins actually get bigger audiences and are more
:43:06. > :43:07.trusted than the national Secondly, it's worth noting that
:43:08. > :43:10.Mr Corbyn's rallies look Finally, while Mr Corbyn
:43:11. > :43:13.isn't going directly into those Tory target seats,
:43:14. > :43:17.he is going to lots of seats that So that means that images of his
:43:18. > :43:25.energetic, well attended rallies, will be broadcast into the marginals
:43:26. > :43:28.on the local news. This strategy also means he meets
:43:29. > :43:32.lots of party members, as he did tonight which,
:43:33. > :43:34.cynics note, will be a benefit Labour's events are certainly
:43:35. > :43:37.quite hard to read. The Tory intention of making big
:43:38. > :43:40.gains tomorrow though Let's carry on thinking about the
:43:41. > :43:56.campaign. One of the questions that leaps out
:43:57. > :43:59.as you observe the campaign is how politicians should engage
:44:00. > :44:01.with the public. You might have thought
:44:02. > :44:04.we were in for an era of less controlled messaging -
:44:05. > :44:05.hasn't Trump shown that a less buttoned up style
:44:06. > :44:07.of campaigning can appeal? You might have thought
:44:08. > :44:09.that, but this election was often very controlled -
:44:10. > :44:12.security has perhaps made John Sweeney looks at how
:44:13. > :44:19.things have changed. That's to say, if you are a little
:44:20. > :44:30.boy, I'm not a little girl! The art of political theatre,
:44:31. > :44:33.of how to handle hostile heckling Look at these performances
:44:34. > :44:41.by the masters. Within our tightly-controlled
:44:42. > :44:43.and rigidly expended Government expenditure programme
:44:44. > :44:46.for the next five years. We have no plans for
:44:47. > :44:53.expenditure in Vietnam. I saw you at the beginning
:44:54. > :45:02.of the week, you've been What the hell are you using
:45:03. > :45:15.for transport, helicopters? APPLAUSE Half a century on,
:45:16. > :45:24.things are rather different. Back in the day Robert Harris,
:45:25. > :45:29.formerly of Newsnight, reported on how control freakery
:45:30. > :45:33.was ruining British politics. Well, these allegations
:45:34. > :45:35.of a Prime Minister, female Prime Minister,
:45:36. > :45:36.avoiding all contact with journalists and with
:45:37. > :45:40.the public are not new. I mean, terrifyingly,
:45:41. > :45:42.a third of a century ago, as a much younger man,
:45:43. > :45:45.I came at the wrong end of an encounter with
:45:46. > :45:55.Margaret Thatcher who was touring This is what it is like being on the
:45:56. > :46:01.campaign trail with the Prime Minister... Voters everywhere and
:46:02. > :46:04.the work is not interested, it was just to get pictures of her in a
:46:05. > :46:08.factory with new technology. There are hundreds of members of the media
:46:09. > :46:12.who swarm around the Prime Minister, follow their every move and the idea
:46:13. > :46:16.from the Conservatives's point of view is to get the best possible
:46:17. > :46:21.exposure on the TV news that evening. That I think was a
:46:22. > :46:24.break-out, a new kind of election, American-style, copied from Ronald
:46:25. > :46:30.Reagan, where you did not do the monster rally. You didn't go out on
:46:31. > :46:37.the hustings, you just got good pictures of evening news. Back then
:46:38. > :46:44.politics was raw and brutal and much more fun. Mainly I find it helpful
:46:45. > :46:49.to invite them, say, I couldn't hear, say it again, and then they
:46:50. > :46:54.will come back. Even your Conservative leader described were
:46:55. > :47:08.dizzy as a police state. You would not last long there, my friend. --
:47:09. > :47:15.road easier. My friend, we do not support Savages, we just allow them
:47:16. > :47:20.to come to our meetings, that's all! There he goes, Neil Kinnock. By the
:47:21. > :47:25.early 1990s political control of recovery was the new normal. Don't
:47:26. > :47:31.let the people who take to the streets take your country. But then
:47:32. > :47:36.underdog John major dug out his soapbox from the attic. I caught up
:47:37. > :47:41.with him on the Tory campaign. Mr Major, could you video me for my
:47:42. > :47:47.video diary? You put the left hand through there. I think this isn't
:47:48. > :47:53.true. No, it's working. You can see me. This is a piece to camera. Would
:47:54. > :48:01.you mind putting your ties straight, you looks lovely! John Major's
:48:02. > :48:05.relative openness is all but gone. Jeremy Corbyn relishes campaigning
:48:06. > :48:12.but it would take a brave soul to hackle him. History tells us but
:48:13. > :48:18.just because your side loves you does not mean you will win. It was
:48:19. > :48:22.noticeable, the difference between Margaret Thatcher's campaign and
:48:23. > :48:27.Michael foot's campaign which was huge rallies, once he had 30,000
:48:28. > :48:33.people, much good it did him. Just how controlled is the Theresa May
:48:34. > :48:37.campaign? It is the flavour of an evangelical meeting, everyone here
:48:38. > :48:43.agrees with Saint Theresa but the problem is where is the argument,
:48:44. > :48:48.where is the challenge. To be fair reporters say she has been taking
:48:49. > :48:52.more questions in the past week but the Sage is not convinced. Something
:48:53. > :48:56.is wrong with this election. I think a lot of people feel it, no matter
:48:57. > :49:00.what the party is, that is that the Prime Minister in particular is not
:49:01. > :49:08.engaging with people and that is an offence to the electorate, it seems
:49:09. > :49:12.to me. Control may feel right for the political parties but one cannot
:49:13. > :49:16.but wonder whether our democracy is losing out.
:49:17. > :49:24.John Sweeney on the art of campaigning with the people. We are
:49:25. > :49:28.back with our panel, Iain Dale, Polly McKenzie, and Paul Mason. We
:49:29. > :49:31.will start this last section of the programme with getting their
:49:32. > :49:34.predictions for the election. I will ask them who they think will be the
:49:35. > :49:37.biggest party and what the size of the majority will be. Will it be a
:49:38. > :49:49.Tory majority of ten, 20, 30, 40, 200 or more? Iain Dale, will be the
:49:50. > :49:54.biggest party? You might not be surprised me to say Conservative.
:49:55. > :49:59.OK, so I have picked of the blue rosette. What are you suggesting, a
:50:00. > :50:04.majority? Have you got more than one was that because I want two goes. My
:50:05. > :50:08.gut feeling at the beginning of the campaign was a majority of 74 and
:50:09. > :50:11.part of me still believes that but I have done seat by set predictions
:50:12. > :50:16.and revised them over the weekend and it still comes up with a
:50:17. > :50:22.Conservative majority of 122. Shall we take the average and just call it
:50:23. > :50:29.a hundred? You do what you like, Evan! I will put them on 100. Polly,
:50:30. > :50:35.I have a yellow Lib Dem rosette for you if you wanted. Biggar they will
:50:36. > :50:39.not win this election with a majority, I'm pretty confident on
:50:40. > :50:45.that one. The Conservatives will be the biggest party. I am a bit more
:50:46. > :50:48.cautious than Iain because there has been such noise about social care in
:50:49. > :50:56.particular, and when you mess with people's houses, I think it affects
:50:57. > :51:01.turnout. So I would go 60. Majority of 60. YouGov, their model, they are
:51:02. > :51:07.getting a hung parliament. But you are going to 60 and Iain is going
:51:08. > :51:12.for 100. I'm not going to let you change. If you look seat by seat in
:51:13. > :51:16.the YouGov model it doesn't make sense, it is nonsense. Know, Paul. I
:51:17. > :51:19.think it was the day that the election was announced we had you on
:51:20. > :51:27.and you said you thought Labour would win. Could win! I think it was
:51:28. > :51:33.stronger than could win. What are you saying now. Heart and head
:51:34. > :51:37.prediction. My head tells me between 20 and 30 majority of the Tories.
:51:38. > :51:40.They will be the largest party because I think Labour will not claw
:51:41. > :51:45.back although we might get three seats in Scotland. The Tories the
:51:46. > :51:51.largest party, hung parliament, Progressive Alliance, bring it on.
:51:52. > :51:55.So perfectly possible hung parliament... My head says the deep
:51:56. > :52:02.but I will go with my heart, hung parliament, progressive alliance --
:52:03. > :52:08.my head says 30. Bring it on. It's like a sort of Vladimir Putin the
:52:09. > :52:14.style, is and has decided. We want to put a Jeremy Corbyn rosette. We
:52:15. > :52:22.want be anything like the biggest party. Will put in there. Paul,
:52:23. > :52:26.seriously -- we will not be anything like the biggest party. Ball, at the
:52:27. > :52:28.start of the campaign when the Tories had a big lead what we're
:52:29. > :52:36.thinking about predictions that Labour could win? I was pretty
:52:37. > :52:40.confident. You are always trying to assess Day by Day but I said on this
:52:41. > :52:46.programme that because of Theresa May's May three speech where she
:52:47. > :52:51.declared furball war, the Ukip vote collapsed in the polls. I said we
:52:52. > :52:57.must do something equally dramatic but I knew we would. I thought,
:52:58. > :53:00.?9,000 a year for students, ?9 a week for school dinner money is
:53:01. > :53:06.quite dramatic if you are earning about ?8 50 an hour, and on zero
:53:07. > :53:14.hours contract. The manifesto was the game changer. I knew it would.
:53:15. > :53:18.Let me ask you all. Theresa May, her ratings have gone down, is it
:53:19. > :53:24.because she is not good because her campaign is bad. Corbyn's ratings
:53:25. > :53:30.have gone up. Is it because he is a good campaign, Iain, or a good
:53:31. > :53:33.leader? He has run a much better campaign than even Paul thought he
:53:34. > :53:37.would, certainly better than I thought. He has relaxed into it,
:53:38. > :53:42.always a good thing for a politician to do. I think that Paul is
:53:43. > :53:47.clutching a few opinion poll straws in his prediction because it is only
:53:48. > :53:50.YouGov and one other polls showing these narrow Tory leads, there was
:53:51. > :53:55.one poll yesterday showing a one point Tory lead. And that was based
:53:56. > :54:01.on the premise that younger voters aged 18-24 would have a 90% turnout.
:54:02. > :54:05.Now YouGov have had similar modelling in their polls, Polly was
:54:06. > :54:10.right, their constituency predictions, they have Canterbury
:54:11. > :54:14.with a majority of 10,000 going to Labour, presumably because the whole
:54:15. > :54:20.of the University of Kent will vote Labour. They've got Anna Soubry
:54:21. > :54:22.losing his seat. Type in any constituency, it's lunacy. These
:54:23. > :54:31.pollsters will have a lot of egg on their face on Friday morning. But if
:54:32. > :54:34.they don't, I will! YouGov have been hedging their bets, adding in the
:54:35. > :54:41.people who don't know and widening the Tory lead. I think they are
:54:42. > :54:45.right because for Labour strategists not everything depends on the youth
:54:46. > :54:52.vote turning out but a lot does. The variables do. And there's another
:54:53. > :54:57.group. The mums and dads, mums and mums, parents with kids in primary
:54:58. > :55:02.school. Those are the people that I have found the most energised on the
:55:03. > :55:05.doorstep but it only takes for someone to fall over in the
:55:06. > :55:11.playground and you don't have time to vote. Turnout is a big thing for
:55:12. > :55:16.Labour. It will be big if it is pouring with rain. You are in the
:55:17. > :55:20.north-west of England! One interesting thing about this
:55:21. > :55:24.election is, normally you say, if you are ahead on the economy and the
:55:25. > :55:29.leader, that is worth more than being ahead in the polls and we
:55:30. > :55:33.should have done that last time, and David Cameron was had leadership
:55:34. > :55:37.over Ed Miliband and the Tories were ahead on the economy this election,
:55:38. > :55:43.it seems to have broken that rule. No one has talked about the economy
:55:44. > :55:47.really. We don't know because tomorrow it might be the fact that
:55:48. > :55:53.Theresa May is holding up on leader, still ahead in most of the testing,
:55:54. > :55:57.and also the Tories are still the most tested on the economy so it
:55:58. > :56:05.might be that that iron rule has not been broken. Iain, has been broken?
:56:06. > :56:08.The economy is the dog that hasn't barked, we haven't seen the
:56:09. > :56:12.Chancellor during this entire campaign, he is the scarlet
:56:13. > :56:15.Pimpernel of the campaign. Whether it is because Theresa May is keeping
:56:16. > :56:19.him locked in a box because she's going to sack him after the election
:56:20. > :56:23.depending on the size of the majority who knows. But I think the
:56:24. > :56:27.electorate should hear from the Chancellor of the Exchequer during
:56:28. > :56:30.the campaign, can you remember one single interview he's done in this
:56:31. > :56:38.campaign because I'm darned if I can. He did in early one on the
:56:39. > :56:41.Today programme. And there was that joint interview whether Labour sons
:56:42. > :56:47.did not add up and she would not endorse. All bets are off because of
:56:48. > :56:54.Brexit. It's like a bomb going off in the general world of politics
:56:55. > :57:02.that blows everything apart. And you've had all of the other events.
:57:03. > :57:08.You've got to take into account that people are feeling jangly and
:57:09. > :57:13.disorientated. It was the Brexit election and it has barely come up!
:57:14. > :57:17.Go on, Iain. You are right, and I said to my Tory friends, why are you
:57:18. > :57:21.not getting Brexit back on the agenda. That is where you can score
:57:22. > :57:25.a big majority in this election. They tried but they don't have
:57:26. > :57:30.anything new to say that they haven't said before. I think they
:57:31. > :57:34.help for Jean-Claude Juncker to say something controversial but he's
:57:35. > :57:38.kept remarkably silent in the last couple of days. But given what
:57:39. > :57:41.happened in London over the weekend and in Manchester I detect that
:57:42. > :57:45.there are a lot of people thinking about security in the last couple of
:57:46. > :57:48.days and you might think that if they did they would automatically be
:57:49. > :57:53.more inclined to vote Conservative. I am not sure that is entirely
:57:54. > :57:57.happening, certainly on my radio phone ins I find this huge
:57:58. > :58:01.enthusiasm among floating voters now for Jeremy Corbyn. Some say they
:58:02. > :58:05.will vote Tory because of the security issue, they feel safer with
:58:06. > :58:11.Theresa May. But it's not the overwhelming majority that you might
:58:12. > :58:16.expect. Yes, it has been a messy election. Theresa May's high point
:58:17. > :58:20.was that fight with Jean-Claude Juncker and his statement about, go
:58:21. > :58:25.away, you horrible Europeans which took to that great local election
:58:26. > :58:29.result. Since the manifestos, and I don't endorse that view Paul Howes
:58:30. > :58:34.of the Labour manifesto being magnificent, a smorgasbord of money
:58:35. > :58:37.and promises. We lurched about talking about this policy and that
:58:38. > :58:43.policy and then as Iain says moved on to the security issue towards the
:58:44. > :58:48.end where police cuts comes up again which is unfortunate because Diane
:58:49. > :58:53.Abbott messed up... Paul, quickly. And is not just the security
:58:54. > :58:57.problem, we feel under attack and very bruised and I think that Mass
:58:58. > :59:00.psychology of sadness and concern will never play into point scoring
:59:01. > :59:12.beyond what is reasonably acceptable. And
:59:13. > :59:15.we have got to that. It has made it an exceptional campaign, and it has
:59:16. > :59:16.been exceptional in other ways. Thank you all, next time we meet we
:59:17. > :59:22.will know the result. Well, that is it for this evening -
:59:23. > :59:25.and for this campaign. Now there is no Newsnight tomorrow -
:59:26. > :59:30.we're not missing much - just the day of the James Comey
:59:31. > :59:32.testimony to Congress But we know that in 24 hours
:59:33. > :59:36.from now, the only thing to do will be to speculate
:59:37. > :59:39.about the accuracy of the exit poll and you will be in good
:59:40. > :59:41.hands on that front. So in the meantime we leave
:59:42. > :59:45.you with a reminder that this isn't Let's leave the last word
:59:46. > :59:50.to the others, and we'll see