:00:07. > :00:09.There was some careful manoeuvring in Downing Street today,
:00:10. > :00:20.Maybe you can stay, but something'll have to change.
:00:21. > :00:31.And we're not just talking about the cats.
:00:32. > :00:34.Yes - after the Tories fall to earth, everything is up in the air.
:00:35. > :00:37.What of their manifesto and of their Brexit will remain -
:00:38. > :00:39.and what will leave, as hung parliament politics bites?
:00:40. > :00:42.Some MPs hoping for a benign Brexit are pinning their hopes
:00:43. > :00:48.on an unlikely alliance at Westminster.
:00:49. > :00:56.-- others of course say that the referendum was definitive.
:00:57. > :00:59.In no way does this election mean an opportunity to somehow go behind
:01:00. > :01:01.that referendum result, and somehow turn the tables
:01:02. > :01:04.Is it soft or hard, or something in between?
:01:05. > :01:06.We'll hear from a prominent Brexiteer and Remainer.
:01:07. > :01:11.France's President Macron has a new party, and it seems to be
:01:12. > :01:13.dominating French politics - at the expense of the socialists.
:01:14. > :01:15.What are the lessons for us, and the implications for Europe?
:01:16. > :01:18.And Katie Razzall has gone back to the very start
:01:19. > :01:20.of Theresa May's campaign, to find out just what went
:01:21. > :01:26.Do you feel that you were very instrumental in what's
:01:27. > :01:33.I feel like we've caused it, because we've gone from having such
:01:34. > :01:35.a small turnout amongst 18-24-year-olds to
:01:36. > :01:47.For better or worse, hung parliaments offer an excuse
:01:48. > :01:51.to parties to jettison the difficult promises made in their manifesto.
:01:52. > :01:54.We saw that in the Tory-Lib Dem coalition of 2010.
:01:55. > :01:57.We're seeing the Tories prune away bits of their manifesto now,
:01:58. > :02:04.But the really big question hanging over Westminster is whether our hung
:02:05. > :02:09.parliament means the Tories will change their much
:02:10. > :02:18.It was set out in a speech in January, in a White Paper
:02:19. > :02:21.in February, and in a letter to the EU in March -
:02:22. > :02:26.The vision was not much debated in the election,
:02:27. > :02:28.but it's hard to say it got an uproarious thumbs
:02:29. > :02:35.And most MPs want a more flexible Brexit, including possibly the DUP.
:02:36. > :02:37.Our political editor Nick Watt is here.
:02:38. > :02:43.An important political Bay, Nick, as everyone gets over the result. Take
:02:44. > :02:52.us through the events of the day. She convened at political Cabinet
:02:53. > :02:54.today ahead of a meeting of the govern -- Government Cabinet
:02:55. > :02:58.tomorrow. Keeping with the same spirit of those Cabinet
:02:59. > :03:02.appointments, mainly confirming the same people in the same places, and
:03:03. > :03:13.when there is a vacancy achieving a balance between Bremainers and
:03:14. > :03:19.Leavers. Then the 1922 committee of MPs, as she recovered some, but by
:03:20. > :03:23.no means all, for a authority by apology for the election setback,
:03:24. > :03:28.saying "I got us into this mess, I will get us out of it." I have to
:03:29. > :03:32.say that went down well. She seems to have had a good day, stabilise
:03:33. > :03:35.things took a bit. To what extent is the support she is getting just
:03:36. > :03:41.because everybody is very tired and we want to get on with things? And
:03:42. > :03:46.how really durable is it, do you think? At the risk of sounding like
:03:47. > :03:49.an old veteran, I have to say I can spot a fake support by politicians,
:03:50. > :03:54.and I was outside the committee meeting today when the Prime
:03:55. > :03:58.Minister came out then the MPs came out, and MPs genuinely thought she
:03:59. > :04:02.had done a good job by showing contrition and then pledging to
:04:03. > :04:05.govern in a more open way. Interestingly, one minister told me
:04:06. > :04:10.he thought the Prime Minister had been impressive and funny, but then
:04:11. > :04:14.this minister said, "Why didn't we see that side of her during the
:04:15. > :04:19.election? " so she has bought herself time to start the Brexit
:04:20. > :04:22.negotiations and possibly to see them through, but every Tory I spoke
:04:23. > :04:28.to will not budge on this fundamental point. Theresa May
:04:29. > :04:33.cannot lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. But
:04:34. > :04:36.the big question really, as you were saying, where does this all leave
:04:37. > :04:40.Brexit? This is what I found out today...
:04:41. > :04:49.A few short weeks ago, are hard Brexit seemed to be on the cards.
:04:50. > :04:53.Now the voters have had their say, and, yes, a soft Brexit is coming
:04:54. > :04:58.into view. Under Theresa May's original Brexit plan there would be
:04:59. > :05:01.no halfway house, the UK would abandon membership of the Single
:05:02. > :05:06.Market and most of the customs union. If Brussels tables
:05:07. > :05:08.unreasonable demands, the UK would also be prepared to walk away
:05:09. > :05:14.without a deal. Downing Street insists there is no change to its
:05:15. > :05:23.plan. But the Prime Minister Renaud has to take account of the new
:05:24. > :05:35.factors. A contingent of 13 Scottish MPs, whose leader Ruth Davidson is
:05:36. > :05:39.calling for an open Brexit, the Tories' DUP partners who want a
:05:40. > :05:43.frictionless border in Ireland, and a rejuvenated Labour Party who is
:05:44. > :05:47.now talking about remaining in a reformed single market and Customs
:05:48. > :05:50.union. Ruth Davidson told the Prime Minister and the Government must
:05:51. > :05:53.push for what she called an open Brexit. I'm suggesting the
:05:54. > :06:00.Conservative Party works with those both within the House of Commons and
:06:01. > :06:03.indeed with people without, to ensure that as we leave the EU we
:06:04. > :06:06.have a Brexit that works with the economy and put that first, and I
:06:07. > :06:10.think there was a real sense around the Cabinet table today that, as you
:06:11. > :06:15.would expect, from centre-right politicians, that is the primacy we
:06:16. > :06:18.are looking for. And the leader of the Scottish Tories also believes
:06:19. > :06:27.the party should be reaching out across the spectrum on Brexit.
:06:28. > :06:30.Labour agrees, and now appears able to water down no suggestion the UK
:06:31. > :06:35.would be able to leave the Single Market. We want something that works
:06:36. > :06:38.for Britain, for our businesses and communities. That means, as we have
:06:39. > :06:46.said, the benefits of the Single Market and the customs union. That
:06:47. > :06:49.is low or no tariffs, no customs barriers, and alignment of
:06:50. > :06:52.regulations. How that is achieved as part of this negotiation but the
:06:53. > :06:56.criticism of the Government is that it took all those options of Mike
:06:57. > :06:59.the table. I'm reformed membership of the Single Market without any
:07:00. > :07:07.change at all is not compatible with leaving EU -- I'm
:07:08. > :07:13.this Arlene Foster, leader of the DUP, is due to meet the Prime
:07:14. > :07:17.Minister tomorrow, to buy to make an arrangement to sustain the Tories in
:07:18. > :07:20.office. A number of Cabinet ministers are reportedly saying in
:07:21. > :07:24.private that the DUP, which is to the right on social issues, may
:07:25. > :07:30.provide them with cover to push for a softer Brexit. This Tory told me
:07:31. > :07:33.some ministers who have been wary of talking out on Brexit believe the
:07:34. > :07:40.DUP will give them a chance to slip through something more palatable to
:07:41. > :07:45.them. The DUP takes a pragmatic approach, in terms of its dealings
:07:46. > :07:48.with the Irish Republic, so they want unfettered trade, they don't
:07:49. > :07:52.want tariffs on goods across the border, and they don't want a hard
:07:53. > :07:56.border. The DUP position is helpful to the Conservatives in terms of
:07:57. > :08:00.managing Brexit. I think previously what the position was that the
:08:01. > :08:04.reddish Government would work with Irish government in a soft Brexit --
:08:05. > :08:08.the British Government would work with the Irish government on a soft
:08:09. > :08:13.Brexit, but now they have the DUP on board in terms of managing a softer
:08:14. > :08:17.Brexit. DUP sources told Newsnight they have no quibble with the Prime
:08:18. > :08:22.Minister's original Brexit plan, and leading Tory Brexit figures are
:08:23. > :08:25.confident their vision is safe. We have 85% of the electorate voting
:08:26. > :08:30.for Brexit supporting parties and for me that vote of confidence in
:08:31. > :08:36.the direction of travel Theresa May is taking us in when it comes to
:08:37. > :08:40.honour that. In no way does this election mean an opportunity to
:08:41. > :08:43.somehow go behind that referendum result and somehow turn the tables
:08:44. > :08:49.on the British people, because that would be completely wrong. Britain's
:08:50. > :08:54.political landscape has been transformed by the surprise result
:08:55. > :08:58.of the snap general election. Pro-Europeans are hoping a hard
:08:59. > :09:01.Brexit will be the first victim, but Leave campaigners believe they still
:09:02. > :09:04.retain trump cards. Nick Watt. Well, there is a live and lively
:09:05. > :09:07.debate going on inside the Tory Parliamentary Party,
:09:08. > :09:10.but it's not one that they're that But let's discuss now with Tory MEP
:09:11. > :09:19.Daniel Hannan and Neil Carmichael, who was a Tory MP and a leading
:09:20. > :09:33.proponent of a softer Brexit I will start if I made with Daniel
:09:34. > :09:39.Hannan. I just want to examine Daniel Hannan's views at the moment.
:09:40. > :09:43.Mr Hannan, a lot of people looking for compromises and a slightly
:09:44. > :09:46.softer Brexit. I just want to ask, would it be acceptable to you if
:09:47. > :09:49.that's part of this we left the Single Market but stayed in the
:09:50. > :09:51.customs union so they did not need to be a border between the north and
:09:52. > :09:57.south of Ireland, car companies could trade back and forwards across
:09:58. > :10:03.the border? I think that would be a very bizarre way of interpreting and
:10:04. > :10:05.open Brexit. Open Brexit by all means means maximising our trade
:10:06. > :10:12.links with the rest of the EU, but it also means being able to trade
:10:13. > :10:15.with the rest of the world. Now, even the EFTA countries, Norway and
:10:16. > :10:19.Switzerland and so on, they have partial membership of the Single
:10:20. > :10:25.Market, but even they are outside the customs union, and so they are
:10:26. > :10:29.able to sign free arrangements with China, Japan, and the growing
:10:30. > :10:32.economies, and if we are looking to long term that is where we need to
:10:33. > :10:35.be. A lot of people have ruled out being in the Single Market. The
:10:36. > :10:38.second best for those people as being in the customs union. Is that
:10:39. > :10:43.something you could swallow... I can see you don't think it is a good
:10:44. > :10:46.idea and would rather it wasn't, but could you swallow it as an idea? To
:10:47. > :10:56.be honest I think some of those people are just grabbing the
:10:57. > :11:01.totemically at things. I've never really got this idea that the whole
:11:02. > :11:03.country is divided down the middle. Leavers and Bremainers our
:11:04. > :11:13.compatriots who want the best. I think we agree whether we voted left
:11:14. > :11:14.remain, we want military arrangements, commercial
:11:15. > :11:18.arrangements, we want that with our allies, we want to keep those bits
:11:19. > :11:21.of the current deal working, and that could include EU programmes,
:11:22. > :11:25.and I don't think anyone is against that in principle, but we want to do
:11:26. > :11:32.it on the basis of getting the best possible deal for us, and frankly
:11:33. > :11:35.that means... Getting the best possible deal, yes, everyone agrees
:11:36. > :11:38.with that. So you would not buy the customs union. Is there any
:11:39. > :11:46.flexibility in your mind about the jurisdiction of the European Court
:11:47. > :11:50.of justice, the ECJ? It may be helpful in the negotiation to say
:11:51. > :11:55.that ECJ, this European Court, can govern our aviation agreements, or
:11:56. > :11:59.for example could govern the nuclear materials? Is that something you
:12:00. > :12:04.could tolerate or accept at all? The EU doesn't do that with any other
:12:05. > :12:11.non-EU member state. Could you tolerate it, could you... Is that
:12:12. > :12:14.Kaymer? Why would we go in wanting a worse deal than Switzerland, Norway,
:12:15. > :12:20.Serbia, every other European country. That would be a bizarre
:12:21. > :12:25.position the way you can get around that issue and make it work to the
:12:26. > :12:29.advantage of both sides, is to do what the Swiss have done. To say,
:12:30. > :12:35.you'll have your court, will have hours. Where there is a plain
:12:36. > :12:38.interest in the same policy are harmonised outcome, we will simply
:12:39. > :12:41.do that through a bilateral treaty, so we will not be inviting foreign
:12:42. > :12:48.jurisdiction but the outcome will be the same. The Swiss have replicated
:12:49. > :12:52.85-90% of the contents of the Single Market, including the real big one,
:12:53. > :12:55.the discrimination on goods or services on threads of origin, but
:12:56. > :12:59.they do that by bilateral treaties and domestic legislation. You are
:13:00. > :13:03.veering towards the Swiss option but by and large are not sounding very
:13:04. > :13:08.compromising. Do you think Theresa May, with no parliamentary majority,
:13:09. > :13:11.should for example reach out to the other political parties, reach out
:13:12. > :13:14.to Labour and even the Liberal Democrats and say, look, let's see
:13:15. > :13:20.if we can foster a Brexit that's its 85% of the voters of this country,
:13:21. > :13:23.because we got 85% of the voters in this election? Do you think she
:13:24. > :13:28.could do that or she should only do that if we all agree to do it on her
:13:29. > :13:33.terms? No, I do think we should be reaching out. I have said ever since
:13:34. > :13:37.the vote, it was a 48-52 vote, not a mandate for severing all your links.
:13:38. > :13:40.That is a mandate for a phased gradual repatriation of power. We
:13:41. > :13:46.will end up with a deal that is almost by definition... It will go
:13:47. > :13:49.too far for some people and not far enough for others, but we should aim
:13:50. > :13:52.for a deal all sides can at least live with and I think that will mean
:13:53. > :13:55.keeping a lot of the current links we have with the EU were those
:13:56. > :14:05.working, but what people have been calling the Brexit option, the EFTA
:14:06. > :14:08.tape option, even that leaves us with our farms, fisheries, defence
:14:09. > :14:12.policy, and I think we can do better than that, but even that is clearly
:14:13. > :14:18.becoming sovereign and having our own jurisdiction. Nobody is
:14:19. > :14:22.seriously suggesting we should have ECJ ruling is still telling us what
:14:23. > :14:25.to do when we have left. Thank you for that. Neil Carmichael, let me
:14:26. > :14:30.talk to you. What is your favourite option at this point? How would you
:14:31. > :14:34.like Theresa May's Brexit to change? First of all we voted to leave the
:14:35. > :14:37.European Union, so what I am about to say does not question that, but I
:14:38. > :14:41.think we need to be more realistic in the way in which we go forward,
:14:42. > :14:46.and going towards it softer Brexit is clearly an object of mine and of
:14:47. > :14:49.many, because we need proper trade relationships and we need to have
:14:50. > :14:55.those... Do you accept free movement of people has two go? Many have said
:14:56. > :15:01.that as the starting assumption for all of this, do you buy that?
:15:02. > :15:06.If you take the university sector, that wouldn't be helpful for
:15:07. > :15:09.existing students or members of staff from the EU in our country.
:15:10. > :15:15.That is a sort of thing we have to think about. Free movement is a bit
:15:16. > :15:18.like pregnancy, you have it or you don't, do you believe in free
:15:19. > :15:24.movement or acts that has to go? I accept the country has voted against
:15:25. > :15:28.free movement. So the Norway option is out because the Norway option has
:15:29. > :15:32.free movement? It has free movement but I don't think we need to rule
:15:33. > :15:37.out the Norway option just because of that reason. I think there are
:15:38. > :15:39.other things... Are you hoping the EU will offer us some other
:15:40. > :15:44.concession on free movement that allows us something close to the
:15:45. > :15:47.Norway option? Yes, I think that's the direction we should be going in.
:15:48. > :15:52.I hear from business increasingly that is the preferred option. The
:15:53. > :15:56.only thing they've ever said is if you wannabe in the single market,
:15:57. > :15:59.you have to have free movement. People have been saying in the last
:16:00. > :16:06.few days, maybe they'll give us an emergency brake and the Norway
:16:07. > :16:10.option. You would love that? I would, but your clip talking about
:16:11. > :16:13.the DUP raised the issue about the border and how the attitude of the
:16:14. > :16:19.DUP might be different with the Brexiteers. Do you think, if you'd
:16:20. > :16:23.been in Parliament, and there are a few like you in the Conservative
:16:24. > :16:31.Party, and some who are not as extreme as you. I'm not normally
:16:32. > :16:34.described as extreme! Enthusiastic. Would you use parliamentary muscle,
:16:35. > :16:38.because basically you'd always have a balance of power, would you use
:16:39. > :16:43.parliamentary muscle to humiliate your own government to soften
:16:44. > :16:47.Brexit? I think what we should be doing is reaching out to other
:16:48. > :16:51.political parties and other stakeholders, because we have to
:16:52. > :16:54.understand that this is not just an objective of hard Brexiteers. This
:16:55. > :16:59.is a wider question and it needs to be dealt with in a wider way. I
:17:00. > :17:05.understand that, but would you vote against, you know, important motions
:17:06. > :17:12.of your government to soften the Brexit? You voted for Article 50. I
:17:13. > :17:16.did. There will be lots of legislation, rip your bills and
:17:17. > :17:20.suchlike, would you vote, use your parliamentary muscle and you'd have
:17:21. > :17:24.more if you were in Westminster because there is a very small
:17:25. > :17:29.majority. I think that leverage that is now available to colleagues of
:17:30. > :17:35.mine and DUP and so on is much higher than before. So yes, there is
:17:36. > :17:39.potential here, but we're not talking about voting against the
:17:40. > :17:44.government essentially. What we are trying to do here is have a serious
:17:45. > :17:48.discussion about moving the agenda away from purely a hard Brexit
:17:49. > :17:55.towards something more reasonable. Last one, you lost your seat on
:17:56. > :18:02.Thursday. I did. It was a seat that was considered Remainer. Do you
:18:03. > :18:06.think Theresa May's Brexit lost youth vote? I think I lost the vote
:18:07. > :18:10.for a number of reasons, one of them was the manifesto on one of them is
:18:11. > :18:13.holding the general election at all on one of them indeed was Brexit. I
:18:14. > :18:20.think the public generally were looking at the situation and
:18:21. > :18:24.painting us as basically obsessed with Brexit and a hard Brexit. A lot
:18:25. > :18:27.of people in my constituency certainly didn't want that. They
:18:28. > :18:34.were not willing to attach their vote to my party and therefore to
:18:35. > :18:37.give it to me. I think that was a real difficulty during the general
:18:38. > :18:40.election, for a lot of my colleagues. Neil Carmichael and
:18:41. > :18:43.Daniel Hannan, thank you very much indeed.
:18:44. > :18:45.So, there was another election this week, in France.
:18:46. > :18:47.With Emmanuel Macron now comfortably ensconced as president there,
:18:48. > :18:50.his new political party is fighting elections for the National
:18:51. > :18:53.Assembly, and in the first round, they did well.
:18:54. > :18:56.It's evidence by the way that traction matters in politics -
:18:57. > :18:58.Macron's success in one election seems to have bolstered his
:18:59. > :19:06.In fact, his La Republique en Marche party is set to get three-quarters
:19:07. > :19:10.of the seats in the assembly - the kind of majority it once looked
:19:11. > :19:13.It's been an extraordinary year in France, for reasons very
:19:14. > :19:16.different to those preoccupying us here.
:19:17. > :19:21.He only became President last month - the youngest leader in the G7.
:19:22. > :19:25.His party didn't exist 18 months ago.
:19:26. > :19:30.But here's the astonishing map of the leaders in each area
:19:31. > :19:33.in yesterday's election - Macron's party is in orange.
:19:34. > :19:36.And in blue, Macron's nemesis, the Front National.
:19:37. > :19:39.It had the reverse experience, finding that failure
:19:40. > :19:43.begets more failure - 13% of the vote yesterday.
:19:44. > :19:45.And most striking, the Socialist Party -
:19:46. > :19:54.In Macron's favour is a perception he's been doing quite well.
:19:55. > :19:57.He's had the firmest grip on how to deal with Donald Trump.
:19:58. > :20:03.He's also the man who's spoken gay rights to Putin in public.
:20:04. > :20:06.For now, Macron is the man with momentum, and he's using it
:20:07. > :20:09.to try and rebuild the French alliance with Germany; the one that
:20:10. > :20:11.allowed France to dominate the EU for all those years,
:20:12. > :20:21.Now, let's not exaggerate - Macron's liberal globalism
:20:22. > :20:25.is not to everyone's taste in France at all.
:20:26. > :20:29.And this is just the first round of two.
:20:30. > :20:30.But what does Macron's dominance of French politics
:20:31. > :20:33.tell us about Brexit, and the UK?
:20:34. > :20:36.I'm joined by Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times and Pauline Bock
:20:37. > :20:49.Pauline, why is the guy doing so well do you think? Well, he has done
:20:50. > :20:53.a very good campaign, and to be fair it's not like he's done so well
:20:54. > :20:57.rather than the others have done quite terribly. He defeated Marine
:20:58. > :21:02.le Pen, was seen as his biggest opponent during the campaign. This
:21:03. > :21:06.socialists are in total disarray, they were the ones in government
:21:07. > :21:12.with Francois Hollande. The won a majority in the Parliament as well,
:21:13. > :21:19.in 2012, and yesterday they lost, they won only 7% of the vote. They
:21:20. > :21:23.will lose 200 seats, the sort of thing that you think in a
:21:24. > :21:27.parliamentary election can't happen. It can apparently, and it does. The
:21:28. > :21:34.others are not doing so well either, on the left as well. Is that because
:21:35. > :21:43.the left are split between men and shone on the other side. It probably
:21:44. > :21:46.is. Mellon shone was the hard left handed and they never reached an
:21:47. > :21:53.accord, they tried several times but it didn't work. If you add up both
:21:54. > :21:59.their percentages you could have... Could have had one in the second
:22:00. > :22:04.round. Could have. The Financial Times likes Macron, did you regret
:22:05. > :22:07.we don't have one here? It was pretty remarkable for the whole
:22:08. > :22:11.British self-image. We've seen France as in terrible political
:22:12. > :22:15.disarray and Britain pretty solid and centrist for a number of years
:22:16. > :22:21.and now it has flipped. They have a kind of Blairite as their president,
:22:22. > :22:25.sweeping all before him, as Blair did in 2007, and our politics is
:22:26. > :22:33.spinning off to the far left and Brexit right. Let's talk about
:22:34. > :22:37.Europe. The Macron vision is terribly pro-European. One wonders
:22:38. > :22:42.if the French will stomach is integration, his view of the world.
:22:43. > :22:47.Sure, there's a long history of French scepticism as well. Macron on
:22:48. > :22:51.the night he was elected marched out onto the side to the European
:22:52. > :22:58.anthem, not the French anthem. He is an integration West and I think he
:22:59. > :23:01.feels he has the momentum behind him now. Unfortunately for Britain it is
:23:02. > :23:05.quite important for him to demonstrate that leaving the EU,
:23:06. > :23:10.which is what Marine le Pen seem to be flirting with, is a really bad
:23:11. > :23:13.idea. So there's no way I think he's going to make it easy for Britain.
:23:14. > :23:18.You are talking earlier about maybe we could move toward a soft exit. I
:23:19. > :23:23.think Theresa May would love him to make a gesture tomorrow when they
:23:24. > :23:27.meet, but I don't think he will give him anything. It's important for
:23:28. > :23:32.domestic political purposes and for his vision of Europe that Brexit
:23:33. > :23:35.fails. We always used to think of the French and German alliance as
:23:36. > :23:37.the motor of the European Union, before we had the ten Eastern
:23:38. > :23:44.European countries coming in and shifting the whole gravity away from
:23:45. > :23:49.the rest. Do you think you can sell? Do you think he can rebuild it and
:23:50. > :23:55.sell it to the French people? Yes, I think he can, I think he's already
:23:56. > :24:00.doing that. As you said, he marched out to the European anthem. Did they
:24:01. > :24:06.like that? They did, they make fun of it because that's what they do in
:24:07. > :24:09.France but I think their date -- they did. There has been some
:24:10. > :24:16.scepticism in France, but we have the euro, we have the Borders. I
:24:17. > :24:20.come from the country of three borders, Luxembourg, France and
:24:21. > :24:24.Germany, so it doesn't work the same way, it's not just Britain on its
:24:25. > :24:28.island. Because of that he can work with that and he's already doing
:24:29. > :24:32.that. During his campaign he met with Angela Merkel in Berlin. The
:24:33. > :24:41.person from his team who made this meeting possible is now Minister of
:24:42. > :24:45.defence. She is fluent in German. His Prime Minister is also fluent in
:24:46. > :24:50.German. His death will be sending messages to Germany. -- he's
:24:51. > :24:57.definitely sending messages to Germany. Bad for Brexit. Why? One of
:24:58. > :25:00.the arguments going round was Macron's has won, the Front National
:25:01. > :25:05.has been defeated, they don't have to worry about populism on the
:25:06. > :25:09.continent any more, so they don't have to punish Britain for leaving
:25:10. > :25:13.the EU, they can be more relaxed. You are arguing the opposite? I
:25:14. > :25:17.think it Macron takes a long-term view you cannot assume all those
:25:18. > :25:21.Eurosceptic forces are dead for ever. He has to prove Brexit is a
:25:22. > :25:26.bad idea. Equally, if he wants to push for a more integration with
:25:27. > :25:30.Stewart, Britain has been a brake on that, it's been a bore. The Brits
:25:31. > :25:35.being out makes it much easier to go to Berlin and say, let's get that
:25:36. > :25:38.Franco German partnership working together again and go for it. I
:25:39. > :25:42.think there are questions about whether in the long run the Germans
:25:43. > :25:45.really will make the moves Macron wants, decree on the transferred
:25:46. > :25:48.union, transferring money around the EU. I think they are still pretty
:25:49. > :25:54.hesitant about that. But it is probably his best chance, now, to
:25:55. > :25:57.get it done. We will leave it there. Thank you both very much.
:25:58. > :26:00.Four theories as to why the Tories slipped back last Thursday.
:26:01. > :26:03.One, youthquake - Corbyn engaged the young.
:26:04. > :26:06.Two, Remainer revenge - pro-EU voters turned away
:26:07. > :26:10.Three, the populist uprising continues -
:26:11. > :26:12.disgruntled voters saw Corbyn as the change
:26:13. > :26:16.candidate this time, and turned to him.
:26:17. > :26:19.And four, Wooden Theresa - the Prime Minister failed
:26:20. > :26:21.to come across as human, and voters tend to prefer humans
:26:22. > :26:26.You'll have your own theories, but Katie Razzall has been
:26:27. > :26:29.to Bolton to fund out more, a town where the Tories once
:26:30. > :26:37.A strong and stable leadership, a strong and stable government.
:26:38. > :26:42.The strong and stable leadership this country needs.
:26:43. > :26:48.That mantra had its first outing in the church where Theresa May
:26:49. > :26:54.It was a clear statement that she would take her fight
:26:55. > :26:58.deep into Labour seats, deep into enemy territory.
:26:59. > :27:01.That was seven long weeks ago, and back then the expectation
:27:02. > :27:05.was they'd win big, taking seats off Labour like this one.
:27:06. > :27:07.But on Thursday, that just didn't happen -
:27:08. > :27:15.It's marathon day in Bolton North East.
:27:16. > :27:17.This was just one of the Labour seats that failed to turn
:27:18. > :27:21.blue in the landslide that never happened.
:27:22. > :27:24.None of the forecasts were as bleak as this.
:27:25. > :27:28.It was hard to find Bolton voters who'd been impressed.
:27:29. > :27:31.It was a disaster, from start to finish.
:27:32. > :27:39.From starting off in Bolton, and in Bolton North East a Labour
:27:40. > :27:43.I think it summed up, that's kind of the perfect
:27:44. > :27:44.metaphor for her campaign, it was completely misguided,
:27:45. > :27:48.it was completely based on some sort of wild fantasy she had in her head.
:27:49. > :27:51.Senior Tories in Bolton told us the fiasco over social care really
:27:52. > :27:53.hurt their campaign, but for these runners getting
:27:54. > :27:55.ready out of the rain, there were other factors
:27:56. > :27:59.I was going to do Conservative, like I have done before,
:28:00. > :28:02.but then after sitting down with my children and they looked
:28:03. > :28:04.online and they did a poll and they did some other things,
:28:05. > :28:08.they both decided that they both wanted to do Labour and I thought,
:28:09. > :28:14.well, it's the children's future now, so I'll put my vote for them.
:28:15. > :28:17.One of the stories of the campaign was the youth vote,
:28:18. > :28:21.We don't know how many influenced their parents,
:28:22. > :28:25.but we do know here they voted in high numbers.
:28:26. > :28:27.Do you feel that you were very instrumental in what
:28:28. > :28:33.I feel like we've caused it, because we've gone from having such
:28:34. > :28:35.a small turnout amongst 18-24-year-olds to
:28:36. > :28:40.Emily, Charlie, Dylan and Jude are 18 and at Turton high school.
:28:41. > :28:45.All of them voted Labour and encouraged others to do the same.
:28:46. > :28:53.I feel like a lot of posts and stuff made on Facebook,
:28:54. > :28:56.a lot of them more quite comedic, which I feel like it kind
:28:57. > :28:59.of resonated with the youth, it put it on a personal level,
:29:00. > :29:04.I think we just wanted to show the rest of the country that we do
:29:05. > :29:09.We are interested, we're not just going to sit back and let you,
:29:10. > :29:12.who have had your years to do what you like the country, we're not
:29:13. > :29:16.Because they don't think that young people are going to turn out
:29:17. > :29:20.and vote, and I think by encouraging people to go and cast a vote,
:29:21. > :29:22.I think you're challenging that and showing people that young people
:29:23. > :29:25.aren't just this sort of this apathetic, silent body that
:29:26. > :29:29.There was this kind of, oh they'll never turn out,
:29:30. > :29:31.there's no point even appealing to them, because
:29:32. > :29:35.And this shows that we do, if you actually offer us something
:29:36. > :29:48.that, if you actually offer us a good deal.
:29:49. > :29:50.This is Breightmet in Bolton North East.
:29:51. > :29:52.The Conservatives expected Ukip voters in places
:29:53. > :29:54.like this to move to them, but instead Tory councillor
:29:55. > :29:56.John Walsh saw a late surge of young Labour voters
:29:57. > :30:01.Their own Ukip surge never materialised.
:30:02. > :30:04.Many of those who voted Ukip were the salt of the earth,
:30:05. > :30:04.working-class, hard-working Bolton families.
:30:05. > :30:07.They were not natural Conservatives, they were in large numbers of Labour
:30:08. > :30:16.supporters who heard an attractive message from Jeremy Corbyn.
:30:17. > :30:22.So Corbyn outplayed the Conservatives?
:30:23. > :30:24.In that sense, yes, his campaign outplayed them.
:30:25. > :30:27.Is this the worst Conservative campaign you've seen?
:30:28. > :30:30.I've got to say it probably was, and it probably
:30:31. > :30:33.was because it was too long, because it went off into many
:30:34. > :30:35.different directions and we didn't have a focus throughout the campaign
:30:36. > :30:39.It's gin fizz night at the Last Drop inn.
:30:40. > :30:42.As the gin and champagne flowed, an explanation perhaps of why
:30:43. > :30:44.the Tory wooing of Ukip voters didn't pay off from
:30:45. > :30:50.I voted for him last time, and I voted for him in Brexit.
:30:51. > :30:56.Because he's not available, I went back to Labour.
:30:57. > :30:58.Because the Conservatives thought people like you might
:30:59. > :31:11.Amongst voters here, Tory and non, nobody had a good word to say
:31:12. > :31:21.All she had to do in this election, based on the lead that she had,
:31:22. > :31:24.was just not be completely rubbish, and that's what she was.
:31:25. > :31:29.No, but I think what they'll do is they'll probably form
:31:30. > :31:37.a coalition if they can, and in 3-4 months, she'll be gone.
:31:38. > :31:39.The Government misjudged the mood music during this campaign.
:31:40. > :31:42.Two months ago they hoped a landslide would deliver them this
:31:43. > :31:45.That strategy cost the Prime Minister dear.
:31:46. > :31:47.Voters in Bolton, at least, now see turmoil and confusion,
:31:48. > :31:59.Well, one of the central explanations for Labour's strong
:32:00. > :32:01.performance last week has been the way in which Labour
:32:02. > :32:04.and Mr Corbyn engaged younger voters and persuaded them to turn out
:32:05. > :32:13.We've got three people who fit that description to delve deeper into why
:32:14. > :32:20.this happened and whether it is now a permanent feature of our politics.
:32:21. > :32:22.Abi Wilkinson is the professional commentator here, she
:32:23. > :32:34.And Thorrun Govind, who is 24 and from Bolton,
:32:35. > :32:49., why did you vote? Europe Tory voter in the past? -- Thorrun, why
:32:50. > :32:54.did you vote? Every day in my line of work I am seeing vulnerable
:32:55. > :32:58.patients... You're a pharmacist by profession? Yes, we're helping
:32:59. > :33:03.patients but the Government is not helping them and this was a real
:33:04. > :33:10.vote NHS election for me. So it is about austerity and public services.
:33:11. > :33:15.About the NHS. Eve, you haven't voted before so we can't say you are
:33:16. > :33:19.Tory, used to be a Tory. Why did you vote for Jeremy Corbyn? Gave me
:33:20. > :33:23.hope, compared to every other party who campaigned and tried to get my
:33:24. > :33:26.vote, it was definitely Jeremy Corbyn who targeted the youth,
:33:27. > :33:31.targeted people like me, and said this could be your country. Have you
:33:32. > :33:38.always been quite political, not political at all? Started around
:33:39. > :33:42.when I was about 15, my mum always kept me in the loop, but it was
:33:43. > :33:46.definitely Brexit that got me into the politics. Brexit engaged you and
:33:47. > :33:52.you were a Remains a porter at the time? Yes. Abi, what about you? You
:33:53. > :33:57.are Labour, so we can say you are especially prone carbon? Not at all.
:33:58. > :34:03.The country is not working for everyone and has not been for a
:34:04. > :34:07.while. Like Eve said, we need to fund public services, we need
:34:08. > :34:10.opportunities. The whole thing, for me, this idea that the country can
:34:11. > :34:16.get better, our future can be better. Than the past, because at
:34:17. > :34:19.the moment it feels like we are in a state of decline, employment rights
:34:20. > :34:22.getting eroded, housing getting more and more unaffordable, and I just
:34:23. > :34:30.think Labour offered the chance of something better. Can out whether
:34:31. > :34:38.you can think of something in the Corbyn campaign that really grabbed
:34:39. > :34:41.you, align, speech? It was the manifesto, the promise to halt the
:34:42. > :34:44.cuts to community pharmacy. At the moment it is a 20 minute walk for
:34:45. > :34:47.most people to their community pharmacy and with what the
:34:48. > :34:50.Conservatives have implement and it will be much further and it is the
:34:51. > :34:55.hope they are giving me. And did you believe... Not asking this in
:34:56. > :34:59.negatively but did you believe everything in the manifesto, that
:35:00. > :35:03.the guy will deliver all of this? Because there was quite a lot of
:35:04. > :35:07.spending in there, wasn't there? I don't trust any manifesto, but I
:35:08. > :35:11.have to believe on these key issues like the NHS the Labour Party have
:35:12. > :35:16.shown they understand these issues. Come on, Eve, what was the moment in
:35:17. > :35:22.the campaign, the line, the speech you saw our inspired by? For the
:35:23. > :35:30.many, not the view. That hit me quite hard, and I like -- not the
:35:31. > :35:34.few. I like how he is trying to make spending there, with tax evasion,
:35:35. > :35:42.trying to get corporate tax, trying to make people earning over ?80,000
:35:43. > :35:48.pay their fair tax. He was a little bit equivocal about the EU... That
:35:49. > :35:51.didn't put you off that? No, it didn't, personally, because it was
:35:52. > :36:02.not as if David Cameron tried his very best. Abi, what moment in the
:36:03. > :36:05.campaign, because often... I just wondered. It was the manifesto
:36:06. > :36:10.launch, when I thought, oh, we could actually do it.
:36:11. > :36:16.You know, I have always thought a Labour Government is better for the
:36:17. > :36:23.country. I have always thought left of the Labour Party, that the Labour
:36:24. > :36:27.Party had the solutions. I thought we needed a radical shake-up, but
:36:28. > :36:34.then when the manifesto came out, I thought people would like this. With
:36:35. > :36:40.the Corbyn thing, the same initials as Jesus Christ, JC, a bit of a
:36:41. > :36:47.cult, and you have all given policy things, rather than Corbyn things.
:36:48. > :36:50.Green Mackey does have a fan club, young people on social media, Jeremy
:36:51. > :36:57.Corbyn, the absolute boy, he's a great guy dream act -- yes, he does
:36:58. > :37:00.have a Fanclub. But undercutting that is the sense that things need
:37:01. > :37:08.to change and it is possible to change things. He is not just a
:37:09. > :37:11.figurehead. It is not just about him. This is about people who have
:37:12. > :37:16.bold ideas and believe it is possible for things to get better,
:37:17. > :37:19.and necessary. Eve, a lot of people have said to some extent, trying to
:37:20. > :37:23.dismiss the durability of the kind of movement that has emerged, I
:37:24. > :37:26.suppose, that it is all about student fees, and whoever throws
:37:27. > :37:30.that at them, those that are the largest number of people, they win
:37:31. > :37:36.the election. I think you will see, no, it is not about student fees,
:37:37. > :37:40.but was it about student fees? My vote was not about student fees,
:37:41. > :37:43.because I decided early on I would vote Labour, but he came out with
:37:44. > :37:48.the student fees and it kind of sold it for me. And you believed it, that
:37:49. > :37:51.they would get rid of student fees? I'm not saying they will not, but
:37:52. > :37:55.you thought it was credible, before people have said that and not
:37:56. > :38:00.delivered it. I was hesitant that it would happen in 2017, that early on.
:38:01. > :38:06.Perhaps 2018, but I believed him. When he said he would scrap them
:38:07. > :38:10.eventually. OK, now, the other interesting aspect of this, and this
:38:11. > :38:13.sounds like a ghastly middle-aged man peering into the lives of
:38:14. > :38:16.younger people and I hate this kind of thing, but will you get your
:38:17. > :38:23.media from? Where you get your news from? What do you do? Is an all
:38:24. > :38:30.social media? Are you reading newspapers, what kind of stuff are
:38:31. > :38:34.you getting on social media? I am an avid tweeter all the time, mainly
:38:35. > :38:38.about pharmacy but also about politics, and I think my Twitter
:38:39. > :38:41.feed has changed recently. I was following a lot of pro-Tory feeds
:38:42. > :38:45.and suddenly it has become all about Labour, and I think... There is
:38:46. > :38:49.nothing beats a Sunday morning with a newspaper, but maybe I'm a bit
:38:50. > :38:54.old-fashioned like that. All right, Eve, what do you do? No newspapers
:38:55. > :39:00.for me. I don't read those kind of things. I am very much a social
:39:01. > :39:02.media person. The Canary... I get a lot of social media news from
:39:03. > :39:08.Twitter. Personally I don't trust this book. It is more of an old
:39:09. > :39:15.person's kind of... When you see from Twitter, what do you mean? Is
:39:16. > :39:21.it from... Clips from Newsnight, or wild unsourced allegation from
:39:22. > :39:25.somebody? It is fact a lot of the time, stating facts, with links and
:39:26. > :39:28.evidence behind it. Do you read it carefully? You don't just accept it?
:39:29. > :39:33.I don't want a fact without evidence. I think one of the most
:39:34. > :39:37.interesting things about this election is how much money the
:39:38. > :39:40.Conservatives spent on social media, and how the Labour Party managed to
:39:41. > :39:43.reach for more people with a fraction of the spending, just
:39:44. > :39:48.because young people... And older people, they were so enthusiastic
:39:49. > :39:54.about what they were offering they were sharing it, and showing their
:39:55. > :39:58.friends. I think they spent ?2000 on their Facebook adverts, and reached
:39:59. > :40:00.12.7 million people in the last week of Facebook adverts, whereas the
:40:01. > :40:04.Tories spent ?1 million on Facebook and did not have the same reach.
:40:05. > :40:11.Thank you. Last and really important question. Come the next election, do
:40:12. > :40:15.you think that you and your peers will behave in the same way as you
:40:16. > :40:19.did on this one, or do you think you will revert to the type, the
:40:20. > :40:25.stereotype, not going out, perhaps not being quite as engaged, do you
:40:26. > :40:30.think you will stick with it? I think Corbyn has created such a
:40:31. > :40:33.wave. Even if he is not there? It depends who replaces him but he
:40:34. > :40:37.himself has created such a way. Would you come back to the Tories? I
:40:38. > :40:41.think I would have to consider the manifesto is and what they actually
:40:42. > :40:45.deliver. We could still have another election yet. But you don't like
:40:46. > :40:49.paying high taxes? I don't like paying high taxes but I don't want
:40:50. > :40:51.to see people suffer and I don't want a return to the nasty party.
:40:52. > :40:53.Thank you all very much. Now, in a story that was seemingly
:40:54. > :40:56.designed for the great pun-machine that is Twitter,
:40:57. > :40:59.we learned today that there will be no goats harmed in the writing
:41:00. > :41:06.of the Queen's Speech. The parchment on which it is written
:41:07. > :41:09.is called goats skin parchment but it turns out that is, in fact,
:41:10. > :41:12.not made of the skin of goats. So whenever the speech takes place,
:41:13. > :41:15.there were at least some celebrations ringing
:41:16. > :41:16.out across the country. We want to be free to do
:41:17. > :41:25.what we want to do, That's what we're going to do,
:41:26. > :41:31.we're going to have a party.