:00:15. > :00:17.Is this Government in the UK right now hanging on, needing time,
:00:18. > :00:23.With big announcements on schools and transport today,
:00:24. > :00:27.the Conservatives are projecting themselves as full of purpose,
:00:28. > :00:33.But tomorrow Theresa May will read the riot act to the Cabinet,
:00:34. > :00:36.telling them to stop the Brexit backbiting and leaks over
:00:37. > :00:43.Yes, we've had some changes in and around Downing Street,
:00:44. > :00:46.and changes to some of the way in which government operates
:00:47. > :00:49.to reflect an understanding of some of the things that went wrong a few
:00:50. > :00:54.months ago, but I see someone who's in control of her brief.
:00:55. > :00:57.Meanwhile, those who failed to predict the last election
:00:58. > :01:10.I nearly swerved off the road. I was driving at the time.
:01:11. > :01:15.I have to say, no, I think it's possible you end up
:01:16. > :01:17.with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
:01:18. > :01:19.So you accept that he could possibly win?
:01:20. > :01:21.I think that you can't rule anything out in today's politics.
:01:22. > :01:24.And the American four-star admiral, who masterminded the hunting down
:01:25. > :01:27.and killing of Osama Bin Laden, joins us with his reflections
:01:28. > :01:31.There are a lot of sharks in the world.
:01:32. > :01:35.If you hope to complete the swim, you will have to deal with them.
:01:36. > :01:48.So if you want to change the world, don't back down from the sharks.
:01:49. > :01:54.MPs break up for summer this week, but things have already
:01:55. > :02:01.Try as it might to show us that there is a Government
:02:02. > :02:04.getting on with business, the frame is always the same:
:02:05. > :02:06.Cabinet debate out in the open, and a leadership campaign
:02:07. > :02:10.So, for example, today, the Education Secretary promised
:02:11. > :02:14.extra funding for schools in England, but she could not
:02:15. > :02:19.It had to come out of her own department's plans,
:02:20. > :02:21.which invites us to think she's been in a battle with the
:02:22. > :02:26.After a weekend of briefing - at the Chancellor's expense -
:02:27. > :02:29.we learned today that the Prime Minister was poised to tell
:02:30. > :02:34.But she does not have the authority that she once did.
:02:35. > :02:37.Right now, the Brexiteers in the party are willing her to stay
:02:38. > :02:41.in place, believing that a new leadership election might lead
:02:42. > :02:52.Nick, what is Theresa May going to say to them tomorrow? As you were
:02:53. > :02:54.saying, the Prime Minister will open the Cabinet meeting with a stern
:02:55. > :03:01.warning to ministerial colleagues that what happens in Cabinet stays
:03:02. > :03:06.in Cabinet. Now, on one level that shows she's in agreement of Philip
:03:07. > :03:09.Hammond, the Chancellor. He believes this has come from within the
:03:10. > :03:13.Cabinet. He's very unamused by it. At that point, the Prime Minister
:03:14. > :03:17.and the Chancellor then part company. In Downing Street, the view
:03:18. > :03:22.is that the leaks were not prompted by a Brexit plot, but by frustration
:03:23. > :03:27.at the Chancellor's rather dismissive attitude occasionally
:03:28. > :03:30.towards colleagues. But the Chancellor actually does believe
:03:31. > :03:34.that a Brexit colleague or colleagues were behind the leaks. He
:03:35. > :03:37.believes that his talk of a reasonable transitional period after
:03:38. > :03:41.we leave the EU has upset colleagues. He was talking over the
:03:42. > :03:44.weekend about how it could be two years, possibly it could even be
:03:45. > :03:49.five years and I'm told, he would like to have agreement within
:03:50. > :03:52.Government on this by September. On the transitional arrangements?
:03:53. > :03:56.That's right, within Government on that by September. Of course, the
:03:57. > :04:00.longer the transitional period it is, the more difficult it is for the
:04:01. > :04:05.UK to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU. Many
:04:06. > :04:10.of the hard Brexiteers don't want it to drag on that long. All this
:04:11. > :04:16.bickering, how's it going down? This afternoon I spoke to Sir Nicholas
:04:17. > :04:20.Soames, the grandee, he reflected the frustration of many Tory MPs
:04:21. > :04:25.when he told me, "I feel deeply ashamed that there are elements of
:04:26. > :04:32.my party who are behaving in a way that is beyond contempt at a time
:04:33. > :04:36.when the country is facing the most difficult negotiations since 1940."
:04:37. > :04:40.Important to say, he was a Remainor. But 1940 is the year that his
:04:41. > :04:44.grandfather, Sir Winston Churchill became Prime Minister. There are
:04:45. > :04:48.many Tories saying all this sniping is explained by the Prime Minister's
:04:49. > :04:52.weak authority after the election and they wonder whether she will
:04:53. > :04:57.make it through the Autumn. But other figures are saying, Theresa
:04:58. > :05:01.May is slowly recovering her authority and one senior figure said
:05:02. > :05:05.to me, "I hope the Prime Minister comes back rejuvenated with lots of
:05:06. > :05:09.authority after the summer holiday and gets rid of, sacks the trouble
:05:10. > :05:13.makers." Why is it the Brexiteers who are keen on keeping her? What do
:05:14. > :05:17.they fear would happen? Probably the Conservative Party would vote
:05:18. > :05:22.another Brexiteer to lead them if it wasn't Theresa May. There are those
:05:23. > :05:25.who say that when the Prime Minister said, after that vote, that Brexit
:05:26. > :05:29.means Brexit and she talked about the UK coming out of the single
:05:30. > :05:32.market, coming out of the customs union, because she believed that the
:05:33. > :05:36.vote showed that the British people no longer accepted free movement and
:05:37. > :05:41.no longer accepted the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice,
:05:42. > :05:47.the feeling was that was what the so-called hard Brexiteers wanted.
:05:48. > :05:51.But there are big Remainers on her side, who's the effective Deputy
:05:52. > :05:53.Prime Minister, Damian Green, big Remainor.
:05:54. > :05:55.One of the big announcements today, concerned High Speed 2.
:05:56. > :05:58.Details of the northern section of the route
:05:59. > :06:00.and some contractors for the first southern phase were published.
:06:01. > :06:03.HS2 is not a new policy, but it was a perfect way
:06:04. > :06:05.of changing the subject from the Government's troubles.
:06:06. > :06:08.Yet even here, there are questions about money,
:06:09. > :06:11.and there are divisions in the Cabinet.
:06:12. > :06:13.Liam Fox, for example, campaigned against it
:06:14. > :06:15.before he was appointed International Trade Secretary.
:06:16. > :06:18.Earlier today, I sat down with the Transport Secretary,
:06:19. > :06:21.Chris Grayling, to talk about HS2, and the Government's predicament.
:06:22. > :06:28.And I asked him whether he was 100% sure that HS2 was going to happen.
:06:29. > :06:33.Yes, because the work has started already. On the first phase from
:06:34. > :06:37.London to Birmingham, the enabling works are being done. The contracts
:06:38. > :06:41.we've let today are for the first full part of the work. This is going
:06:42. > :06:45.to happen. But it has to happen. People tend to misunderstand what
:06:46. > :06:48.HS2 is about, it's a capacity project more than anything else.
:06:49. > :06:54.Look at the West Coast main line, one of the busiest railways in
:06:55. > :06:58.Europe, congested with commuter trains, freight trains, if it can
:06:59. > :07:01.cope with the demand of the future we have to move the express trains
:07:02. > :07:05.to a different line, get more freight off the roads onto the
:07:06. > :07:07.railways, create more commuter space and do so by building a
:07:08. > :07:12.state-of-the-art new high speed route we can be proud of. You don't
:07:13. > :07:15.know the final cost and there are reports that the cost may be way
:07:16. > :07:19.higher than is currently being talked about. So in a way, by saying
:07:20. > :07:23.it's definitely going to happen, without knowing the cost, you are
:07:24. > :07:27.saying - we will pay whatever it takes. We know what it's going to
:07:28. > :07:34.cost. It's going to cost 55. ?55.7 million. Billion. Billion. You don't
:07:35. > :07:38.know that until you've got builders to say they will build it and
:07:39. > :07:42.guarantee that price. We've got a pretty good track record in recent
:07:43. > :07:46.years. Look at cross-rail, it's going well. It's on time. It's on
:07:47. > :07:50.budget. It proves that we in this country can deliver things. The
:07:51. > :07:53.reports in the last few days, utterly spurrious. The argument this
:07:54. > :07:58.is going to cost five times as much as HS 1, coming from people who have
:07:59. > :08:03.no involvement in the project, I don't take that seriously at all.
:08:04. > :08:09.You are saying, on this issue, there is complete clarity at the heart of
:08:10. > :08:12.Government, Treasury, Cabinet, policy makers, civil servants - this
:08:13. > :08:15.is going to happen, it must happen and everybody is on board. Not only
:08:16. > :08:22.that, it is happening now. Is it your contention in other areas, the
:08:23. > :08:26.Government is as decisive and clear about the direction it's going to
:08:27. > :08:30.take. My answer to that is yes. What people look at is - does the Cabinet
:08:31. > :08:33.ever have discussions and debates. Of course we do. We're not clones.
:08:34. > :08:37.We have different views. We argue the case. We put forward our views.
:08:38. > :08:41.We reach consensus and move ahead with it. That's the way Government
:08:42. > :08:45.should work. I have been confused on quite a few areas as to what the
:08:46. > :08:50.policy is. Let's start with one of yours, not rail - third runway at
:08:51. > :08:54.Heathrow. Is that definitely going to happen? Yes, we are in the middle
:08:55. > :08:58.of what is a 12-month process that leads to what is effectively
:08:59. > :09:03.outlying planning permission. It's set out in statute. Set out in the
:09:04. > :09:06.2008 planning act. It involves a period of public consultation, we're
:09:07. > :09:10.going through that at the moment. We just completed that. There's a
:09:11. > :09:12.period of Parliamentary scrutiny, slightly delayed because of the
:09:13. > :09:16.general election. We will bring this to a vote in the first part of next
:09:17. > :09:20.year. We'll table those proposals formally for Parliament to approve
:09:21. > :09:23.in the first part of next year and as long as Parliament approves it, I
:09:24. > :09:29.believe it will, the project will go ahead. No back tracking on that. No
:09:30. > :09:34.back tracking. You've sorted out my confusion on that one. Public sector
:09:35. > :09:41.pay - the policy as expressed was a 1% cap through to the year 2019/20.
:09:42. > :09:46.Does that remain the Government's policy? As of today, that is the
:09:47. > :09:50.case. I know that we've had debates and discussions in the public arena
:09:51. > :09:54.politically about this. We have to find the right balance. One of the
:09:55. > :09:58.things I'm proudest of, that our economic policy in the last seven
:09:59. > :10:02.years has led to the lowest unemployment since the 1970s. Youth
:10:03. > :10:05.unemployment has pretty much halved. I don't want to lose that progress
:10:06. > :10:10.by letting go of the policies that have delivered it. But at the same
:10:11. > :10:14.time, all of us want to spend more money on public services. All of us
:10:15. > :10:17.want to spend more on public sector pay. Government is about getting the
:10:18. > :10:22.balance between the two right. As to what we do - we've had a number of
:10:23. > :10:25.messages from different circles in the last few weeks, as to what we
:10:26. > :10:30.do, we will see when the budget comes. As of today beare determined
:10:31. > :10:35.to see through the policy which brings down the deficit. We will
:10:36. > :10:40.carry on with that focus of bringing down the deficit. Not quite the
:10:41. > :10:44.clarity on that one as HS2 and the third runway, what is the policy,
:10:45. > :10:47.the aspiration or the expectation on a transitional arrangement with the
:10:48. > :10:50.EU? We've had Liam Fox saying well, it might have to be a few months.
:10:51. > :10:53.The Chancellor saying it's not going to be a couple of months, we're
:10:54. > :11:00.talking about something more like a couple of years or more. What is the
:11:01. > :11:05.policy on transitional arrangement? Well, the exact detail of the
:11:06. > :11:08.transition from in to out will come out of the negotiations. I can tell
:11:09. > :11:13.you clearly what the Government's policy is on Brexit. Just the policy
:11:14. > :11:17.on the transitional arrangement. Are you saying we basically don't know
:11:18. > :11:21.whether we are seeking a transitional arrangement of two
:11:22. > :11:26.months or two years? Is that - we don't even know what our starting
:11:27. > :11:31.point is? All of this will depend on the position of the European Union
:11:32. > :11:35.and how the negotiations go. It is perfectly plausible that we could
:11:36. > :11:39.leave without a transitional arrangement, if the agreements were
:11:40. > :11:42.in place for future trade, if the agreements were in place for the art
:11:43. > :11:46.partnerships in the future. You can't really answer the question.
:11:47. > :11:49.Nobody is expecting for there not to be a transitional arrangement. We
:11:50. > :11:54.don't know what it's going to look like. We have a Philip Hammond verse
:11:55. > :11:59.and Liam Fox version, they're completely different to each other.
:12:00. > :12:03.It's quite possible we will end up with a transitional arrangement. So
:12:04. > :12:09.there's a third position, that we won't have an arrangement. This is a
:12:10. > :12:12.negotiation. Can you see why the world feels the Government is,
:12:13. > :12:18.perhaps, less clear about its policies than you are about HS2?
:12:19. > :12:22.That in all these areas, there has been a confusion on the part of
:12:23. > :12:25.public and business as well. I don't accept the principle of confusion.
:12:26. > :12:29.We have a clear objective - to leave the European Union but to leave it
:12:30. > :12:35.on good terms, with good friends and neighbours, with as close as we can
:12:36. > :12:38.possibly secure the current trading arrangements. Let me ask you one
:12:39. > :12:42.last one, how is Theresa May - I know she's a friend of yours, you
:12:43. > :12:46.were an early supporter in the leadership campaign last year - how
:12:47. > :12:51.is she faring through all this? Is she coping with the stresses of
:12:52. > :12:54.being buffeted around by so many different pressures? If you sat
:12:55. > :12:59.around the Cabinet table before the general election, and you sat around
:13:00. > :13:03.the Cabinet table after, you would see the same person sitting there
:13:04. > :13:07.and the same exposed personality sitting there. Yes, we've had some
:13:08. > :13:11.changes around Downing Street and changes to some of the ways in which
:13:12. > :13:14.Government operates to reflect an understanding of some of the things
:13:15. > :13:18.that went wrong a few months ago. I see someone who's in control of her
:13:19. > :13:22.brief, who is very much doing the job of Prime Minister and will get
:13:23. > :13:25.on with that and deliver a successful outcome to Brexit as well
:13:26. > :13:31.as the other things we need to do as a nation. Thank you very much.
:13:32. > :13:36.There was an announcement on schools funding today. An extra 1. ?1.3
:13:37. > :13:40.billion a year paid for in some arcane ways of taking money out of
:13:41. > :13:43.the capital budget of the Education Department and the budget for free
:13:44. > :13:46.schools. Now this should ensure there's no real terms reduction in
:13:47. > :13:49.per pupil spending on schools. With me now is Angela Rayner,
:13:50. > :13:56.the Shadow Education Secretary. Very good evening. Thanks for coming
:13:57. > :14:01.in. It seems like the Government is listening and is responding to what
:14:02. > :14:06.it has probably correctly perceived as a dissatisfaction with funding
:14:07. > :14:09.for schools. Well, there was an amazing campaign led, extraordinary
:14:10. > :14:12.campaign led by the parents of pupils concerned about the school
:14:13. > :14:15.funding cuts and the head teachers, which was unprecedented in the way
:14:16. > :14:21.that they've writ ton parents and said we can't afford to provide
:14:22. > :14:25.school books and carry out the curriculum. They led the campaign.
:14:26. > :14:29.The Government have took heed of that. Of course, they've cut school
:14:30. > :14:33.budgets by 2. 8 billion. Those cuts are happening now. These are cuts
:14:34. > :14:36.that were further planned in future years. They're putting money in.
:14:37. > :14:39.It's churlish to complain, particularly, you didn't like the
:14:40. > :14:43.free schools budget, did you? Well, I felt that some of the money that
:14:44. > :14:46.was spent, if you look at the National Audit Office and the Public
:14:47. > :14:49.Accounts Committee that have said about the money wasted on free
:14:50. > :14:53.schools that weren't in the places we required them. I can't understand
:14:54. > :14:57.why you don't see this as a good news day and say Theresa May,
:14:58. > :15:03.Justine Greening, thank you very much. Unfortunately it's not new
:15:04. > :15:06.money. 2. 8 million is still missing from that. The teachers have written
:15:07. > :15:09.to parents saying we haven't got the money this year, they aren't getting
:15:10. > :15:13.extra money this year. Come September, that money will still be
:15:14. > :15:17.gone from their budgets, those teaching assistants will not be in
:15:18. > :15:23.their jobs. Right. But they are on course to be by 2022, spending 4
:15:24. > :15:26.billion extra on schools. They're saying they're not going to cut
:15:27. > :15:30.budgets any further. We have to look at the detail. There's no new money.
:15:31. > :15:34.That's the important thing. They've taken it out of one hand - And put
:15:35. > :15:37.it into another. They're not clear about where the money is coming
:15:38. > :15:41.from. That's a concern. We know that we need school places. We know that
:15:42. > :15:44.there's a crisis in terms of our class sizes are increasing. If
:15:45. > :15:47.they're not creating free schools, which I prefer actually local
:15:48. > :15:51.authority schools, then they need to be putting the money in there.
:15:52. > :15:56.What's interesting and people have argued this against your party's
:15:57. > :16:00.policies, if schools are in need of so much money, why would you have a
:16:01. > :16:07.policy of spending twice as much than you were planning to spend on
:16:08. > :16:13.schools on wealthier university graduates by aboll Loans, but
:16:14. > :16:16.abolishing fees. That was the most expensive thing in your manifesto.
:16:17. > :16:20.It was going to do nothing for schools. Over 50% of the money that
:16:21. > :16:23.we raised in the manifesto went on our national education service. You
:16:24. > :16:30.put 6 billion on schools, including school meals. We put 6 billion - The
:16:31. > :16:33.Government are putting 4 billion. But 11 billion on university
:16:34. > :16:36.students. Yes, because we didn't feel they should carry that burden.
:16:37. > :16:40.We put money into early years. That's important. Saving the Sure
:16:41. > :16:45.Start centres - Was that part of the 6 billion? No, it wasn't. It was
:16:46. > :16:48.half a billion on top of that, which was to protect Sure Start centres,
:16:49. > :16:53.we've lost 1200 of them. They've been lost since the coalition came
:16:54. > :16:58.to power. I've been clear, if we had an extra ?1 it should go into early
:16:59. > :17:02.years. I think the early years stuff - Just to come back to the point of
:17:03. > :17:05.tuition fees, we've got a crisis in our country of skilled workers.
:17:06. > :17:09.We're coming out of Europe and we need skilled workers. If we don't
:17:10. > :17:12.start investing in young people and giving them those opportunities and
:17:13. > :17:17.saddling with that debt is not the way to do it. We have to start
:17:18. > :17:20.tackling that crisis. You broadly speaking accept the analysis of the
:17:21. > :17:24.Office for Budget Responsibility which last week gave a warning on
:17:25. > :17:30.fiscal risks basically. It came out with some interesting lines, in many
:17:31. > :17:33.recent fiscal events giveaways today have been financed by takeaways
:17:34. > :17:40.tomorrow. The risk is tomorrow never comes. New unfunded giveaways would
:17:41. > :17:44.take the Government away from fiscal targets. Do you accept that or not?
:17:45. > :17:48.Our manifesto was funded. We talked about investment in our future and
:17:49. > :17:51.in our regions, the regional banking structure, about skills that our
:17:52. > :17:55.regions require. Businesses tell me, when I go round to business Is, they
:17:56. > :17:58.say to me, Angela, we don't have the skilled workforce that we require.
:17:59. > :18:02.That's why they go to Europe and other places. One thing in your
:18:03. > :18:07.manifesto, in the election that was not costed was the promise to
:18:08. > :18:13.students who have already graduated and paid ?9,000 - Retrospective
:18:14. > :18:19.debt. Yes, presumably that has gone then?
:18:20. > :18:23.No, it was an aspiration Jeremy said, that he would want to look at,
:18:24. > :18:27.but it was never in the manifesto. So don't bank on that happening if
:18:28. > :18:32.you're one of those people? It is not a case of banking on it. That
:18:33. > :18:35.?100 billion of debt is what this Government have saddled current
:18:36. > :18:38.students with. If we were in government we would abolish tuition
:18:39. > :18:46.fees, and we would look at that as an aspiration. We have not made any
:18:47. > :18:49.promises on the ?100 billion of debt this Government has created on these
:18:50. > :18:51.students of today. We have said if we get into power we would abolish
:18:52. > :18:54.them from that day forth, and we would look at what we could do but
:18:55. > :18:56.not make uncosted promises. Angela Rayner, thanks ever so much. Thanks.
:18:57. > :18:58.Well, we've discussed today's politics, but how we got
:18:59. > :19:01.here is, of course, the result of one of a spectacular
:19:02. > :19:05.Theresa May wrongly thought she'd win big and called an election.
:19:06. > :19:09.But in her defence, she was not alone.
:19:10. > :19:11.The mainstream media thought the same, as did
:19:12. > :19:13.most of the pollsters, the psephologists, most Tory
:19:14. > :19:15.and Labour MPs, the bookies, Uncle Tom Cobley and all.
:19:16. > :19:18.A second election in a row with a result we didn't call right.
:19:19. > :19:22.You can add Brexit and Trump if you like too.
:19:23. > :19:24.So the question for the political class is:
:19:25. > :19:26.Does anybody understand the new rules of our
:19:27. > :19:37.We are all pondering on this at the moment, none more
:19:38. > :19:40.than Newsnight's editor, Ian Katz, who has been spending some
:19:41. > :19:42.time trying to find out what went wrong with the forecasts.
:19:43. > :19:56.A warning - there is a little bit of late night bad language.
:19:57. > :19:58.These are disorienting times for those of us
:19:59. > :20:00.in the business of covering, and practising, politics.
:20:01. > :20:02.The old indicators don't seem to work any more.
:20:03. > :20:04.Every election seems to bring another surprise.
:20:05. > :20:21.It feels a bit like the instruments, the instincts we've used for decades
:20:22. > :20:24.to navigate the political landscape, are broken or obsolete.
:20:25. > :20:26.Has politics changed in some profound way many of us
:20:27. > :20:44.Or have we just been through a series of freak political
:20:45. > :20:48.For me, the challenge facing the media and political
:20:49. > :20:50.establishments was brought home rather brutally, and quite
:20:51. > :20:51.literally, by my 18-year-old daughter the morning
:20:52. > :20:55.Remind me what you told me the day after the election.
:20:56. > :20:58.That I'm not going to believe anything you say about politics ever
:20:59. > :21:00.again because you've got everything wrong.
:21:01. > :21:02.Fortunately, I wasn't the only one feeling a little sheepish
:21:03. > :21:17.when Big Ben struck 10pm on June 8th.
:21:18. > :21:19.DAVID DIMBLEBY: And what we're saying is the Conservatives
:21:20. > :21:22.are the largest party - note, they don't have an overall
:21:23. > :21:30.There was a little cry of despair, and my head hit the table.
:21:31. > :21:36.You can't rule anything out in today's politics.
:21:37. > :21:39.When you've been wrong about something, it's always a good
:21:40. > :21:41.idea to go looking for someone who's been, well, wronger.
:21:42. > :21:43.When it comes to the 2017 election, the highly respected
:21:44. > :21:51.pollster Marten Boon got it spectacularly wrong.
:21:52. > :21:53.In its election poll, his company ICM predicted
:21:54. > :21:57.That's ten points more than they achieved.
:21:58. > :21:59.We were bamboozled by the turnout, which we predicted wouldn't
:22:00. > :22:05.And I have to hold up my hands and say that -
:22:06. > :22:08.you know, I made a call and it was the wrong
:22:09. > :22:10.call, and the result was a poor poll performance.
:22:11. > :22:12.Why would anyone take the polls seriously again?
:22:13. > :22:19.It's a very good question, and we have to move things on.
:22:20. > :22:27.The problem for me is that the techniques
:22:28. > :22:30.which didn't work in 2015 - ie we undershot the Labour score,
:22:31. > :22:46.as historically we've done as pollsters going back almost
:22:47. > :22:50.And indeed the techniques which the likes of myself applied
:22:51. > :22:52.in 2017 wouldn't have worked retrospectively in 2015.
:22:53. > :22:55.If you were in the schedule and you are a politician or a CEO
:22:56. > :22:58.of a company which had failed in this way, we'd be saying,
:22:59. > :23:02.I thought about resigning publicly, after 2015 actually -
:23:03. > :23:04.I openly considered whether it was worthwhile
:23:05. > :23:06.subjecting my company ICM to the brickbats of misfortune
:23:07. > :23:16.We in ICM and we in industry do need to think seriously
:23:17. > :23:18.about whether classical orthodox polling techniques are something
:23:19. > :23:27.Another person on the long list of those admitting,
:23:28. > :23:29.through somewhat gritted teeth, that they underestimated Corbyn
:23:30. > :23:34.Back in April she said Corbyn staying on as party leader would be
:23:35. > :23:40.And do I have to re-evaluate the way that I am about politics?
:23:41. > :23:56.After shock election results, news organisations like the BBC tend
:23:57. > :23:59.to say, "If only we'd listened more carefully to what was
:24:00. > :24:02.The trouble is, says Jess, what she was hearing was very
:24:03. > :24:06.What we potentially missed in classic campaigning
:24:07. > :24:12.and classic polling - I imagine this is how
:24:13. > :24:15.they do the polling - is the people we're talking to.
:24:16. > :24:17.And still I'm driving around my constituency thinking,
:24:18. > :24:23.Like, I want to find those people and know exactly why they went
:24:24. > :24:25.out and voted Labour, because there are definitely
:24:26. > :24:26.people who'd never voted before, younger people -
:24:27. > :24:29.we just weren't talking to the right people.
:24:30. > :24:31.We always go back and talk to the Labour promise,
:24:32. > :24:38.You wouldn't waste your time in an election campaign bothering
:24:39. > :24:39.with people who have no voting record.
:24:40. > :24:42.Someone who isn't reaching for the sackcloth and ashes just yet
:24:43. > :24:47.if ITV's political editor Robert Peston.
:24:48. > :24:49.He may not have seen the election result coming,
:24:50. > :24:52.but he can claim to have been more upbeat about Corbyn's
:24:53. > :24:57.The old rules have gone, and we've got to try and make sense
:24:58. > :25:00.And the truthful answer is that, you know, we are all
:25:01. > :25:06.Millions and millions of people in rich countries are saying
:25:07. > :25:09.that the way things worked in the past cannot go on.
:25:10. > :25:11.Their interests are not being served by the establishment.
:25:12. > :25:13.Now, that doesn't mean that Jeremy Corbyn definitely
:25:14. > :25:14.becomes Prime Minister, but it absolutely means
:25:15. > :25:17.that the old rules are useless in making an assessment
:25:18. > :25:19.about whether he's going to be Prime Minister.
:25:20. > :25:30.Where were you when you heard the exit poll for last month's election?
:25:31. > :25:38.I was at home, watching the election.
:25:39. > :25:40.Did you shed a little tear like Theresa May?
:25:41. > :25:49.The man who, perhaps more than any other,
:25:50. > :25:51.could claim to have divined the rules of modern
:25:52. > :25:55.His Tory successors David Cameron and George Osborne revered his
:25:56. > :25:58.political judgment so much they called him the master.
:25:59. > :26:00.You've obviously reflected quite a lot over the last month
:26:01. > :26:17.Was there anything about it which made you question what you thought
:26:18. > :26:23.In the sense that, and not just this election result, but Brexit,
:26:24. > :26:29.the Trump victory in the US, what's happening all over Europe.
:26:30. > :26:31.Did you see any of the other two coming, by the way?
:26:32. > :26:39.For most of my political life, I've been saying, I think this
:26:40. > :26:42.is the right way to go, and what's more it's the only
:26:43. > :26:47.I have to say, no, I think it's possible you end up
:26:48. > :26:49.with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
:26:50. > :26:52.So you except that he could possibly win on the platform he is on?
:26:53. > :26:54.I think you can't rule anything out in today's politics.
:26:55. > :26:57.But it doesn't stop me believing that if we deliver Brexit
:26:58. > :27:00.and at the same time are delivering the programme that he has
:27:01. > :27:03.at the moment, unreconstructed, unchanged, we will be in for a very
:27:04. > :27:13.I still believe the surest route is through the centre.
:27:14. > :27:17.But I think you can't say in today's politics,
:27:18. > :27:19.particularly if you've gone through three things -
:27:20. > :27:22.the election of Donald Trump, Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn doing so well
:27:23. > :27:28.- and if you're in my position and you haven't got those
:27:29. > :27:30.things right, you've got to accept it's possible that
:27:31. > :27:34.But, no, I haven't changed my basic view, and why should I?
:27:35. > :27:38.But that's a really interesting thing, because the events
:27:39. > :27:41.of the last years haven't challenged any of your beliefs.
:27:42. > :27:44.I mean, I find myself looking at some of these things, thinking,
:27:45. > :27:47.I don't know what I thought I knew about politics.
:27:48. > :27:53.No, no, you've got to distinguish between two separate things.
:27:54. > :27:55.One is accepting that there is something going on in politics
:27:56. > :27:58.that you didn't get and don't fully understand.
:27:59. > :28:01.We are completely on the same line with that - I agree.
:28:02. > :28:03.That's why I'm studying it, very hard.
:28:04. > :28:06.The other thing is to work out what you believe in.
:28:07. > :28:08.Does the fact that the British people voted for Brexit mean that
:28:09. > :28:12.No, I think it's a disastrous mistake for the country.
:28:13. > :28:14.Not everyone is flagellating themselves are getting yet another
:28:15. > :28:37.A few, like the Cole missed Rod Liddle, are feeling quite smug. --
:28:38. > :28:42.like the columnist Rod Liddle. The suggested before the election that
:28:43. > :28:49.it would leave us probably where we are. Don't think because you believe
:28:50. > :28:53.Jeremy Corbyn is our jackass that everyone else in the country
:28:54. > :28:56.believes Jeremy Corbyn is a jackass. It starts with not following the
:28:57. > :29:03.herd, but even he admits his record is not entirely unblemished. I got
:29:04. > :29:06.Brexit wrong. Much as I voted to leave, I thought that probably in
:29:07. > :29:11.the end we would vote to remain, and I think most people thought that.
:29:12. > :29:21.You got your own patch wrong intent as well? Yes. Middlesbrough, South,
:29:22. > :29:26.because it was marginal ball, and -- marginal and we knew Canterbury was
:29:27. > :29:34.a safe seat for the Tories, so we got that one wrong. Bloody students.
:29:35. > :29:39.Ah, yes, those pesky students, assuming they would stay in and
:29:40. > :29:43.watch Love Island rather than going out to vote is another reason we got
:29:44. > :29:49.it wrong on June eight. Matt Turner was to run Evolve Politics, one of
:29:50. > :29:52.the handful of Corbyn supporting website that claims to have their
:29:53. > :29:56.fingers closer to the national polls than the mainstream media. He has
:29:57. > :30:03.ventured into the heart of the beast to explain what he could see that we
:30:04. > :30:06.couldn't. We had our ear to the ground. We give a more accurate
:30:07. > :30:11.reflection of what people were actually feeling. The same could
:30:12. > :30:14.probably be said of the new up-and-coming right-wing press
:30:15. > :30:17.sites. People accused us of being in a bubble when we accurately
:30:18. > :30:20.predicted a hung parliament. If anything, the rules have changed.
:30:21. > :30:24.Perhaps two years ago when we started we were living in a Labour
:30:25. > :30:28.supporting bubbles, but certainly not now. The week before the
:30:29. > :30:33.election we reached 70 million people on Facebook. Over a million
:30:34. > :30:36.unique hits to our site. -- 17 million people. If anyone I think it
:30:37. > :30:43.is the Westminster media who are now in that bubble. I never knew an
:30:44. > :30:45.election where I saw such a gap between what was in the newspapers
:30:46. > :30:48.and what people were talking about. I mean, you know I spend way too
:30:49. > :30:54.much time on social media, but what people were talking about on social
:30:55. > :30:57.media... The whole debate was going on, on social media, different forms
:30:58. > :31:00.of people interacting with each other, particularly young people,
:31:01. > :31:04.that really does not hit the mainstream media at all, so that is
:31:05. > :31:09.a lesson learned. So how should we navigate our way through this new
:31:10. > :31:13.political landscape? Acknowledging that we did not see Jeremy Corbyn's
:31:14. > :31:17.success coming is not the same as saying our coverage was not much
:31:18. > :31:20.good. In fact, there were lots of indications in Newsnight's reporting
:31:21. > :31:25.that he was doing much better than the polls suggested. The trouble is
:31:26. > :31:30.when so many voices are saying the opposite, it is hard not to doubt
:31:31. > :31:33.the evidence in front of you. For example, getting these enormous
:31:34. > :31:38.crowd of enthusiastic people coming to listen to him and,, you know, you
:31:39. > :31:42.would routinely be told, well, of course, that is not a representative
:31:43. > :31:46.sample. It is stage-managed, you know. There are millions of voters
:31:47. > :31:51.and these are best a couple of thousand. The enthusiasm he was
:31:52. > :31:55.generating was real. Right? And yet almost nobody believed it. So we
:31:56. > :31:58.have just got to get better at having slightly open minds and
:31:59. > :32:01.saying, I am seeing something quite extraordinary here and it is
:32:02. > :32:06.different from what we saw in previous elections. It means
:32:07. > :32:09.something. All those journalists and pollsters left feeling disorientated
:32:10. > :32:13.after last month's result can comfort themselves with one thing.
:32:14. > :32:19.Most politicians, including those around Jeremy Corbyn, were just as
:32:20. > :32:24.surprised by it. In fact, one source told me that until minutes before
:32:25. > :32:28.the exit poll, senior Labour figures had been telling him they expected
:32:29. > :32:34.an increased Tory majority of as many as 60 seats. In the two weeks
:32:35. > :32:37.before the actual day of the poll I was saying Labour were going to do a
:32:38. > :32:40.hell of a lot better than most people thought, but did I think
:32:41. > :32:46.there was going to be a hung parliament? No! Because in the way
:32:47. > :32:52.that I do as a normal journalist, I spoke to senior Tories, spoke to
:32:53. > :32:57.senior Labour, half an hour before I got, you know, the exit poll. Labour
:32:58. > :33:02.was expecting a reasonable majority for Theresa May and the Tories were
:33:03. > :33:07.expecting a reasonable majority for Theresa May, and the big mistake I
:33:08. > :33:12.made was costing them! Do you think there has been a structural forever
:33:13. > :33:17.change that we haven't quite got in our heads and? -- the big mistake I
:33:18. > :33:22.made was trusting them. Or do you think the normal rules will apply
:33:23. > :33:25.again? I think it is a really difficult question and I am not sure
:33:26. > :33:32.what the answer is, so what I am saying is sort of... It is a work in
:33:33. > :33:40.progress in terms of my thinking. Firstly, I think that social media,
:33:41. > :33:45.its interaction with a polarised fragmented partisan conventional
:33:46. > :33:48.media is creating a very divided politics, in which populism of left
:33:49. > :33:53.and right can gain a foothold very easily. That is one change.
:33:54. > :33:59.Secondly, I think after the financial crisis, there is a real
:34:00. > :34:03.feeling with people that globalisation just forces things on
:34:04. > :34:07.and many people feel powerless and left behind, and that has got to be
:34:08. > :34:10.addressed. So those two things have changed. What in my view has not
:34:11. > :34:15.changed is that the only things that will actually work, I mean, whether
:34:16. > :34:19.people vote for them or not by the way is another matter, but only
:34:20. > :34:20.things that will actually work as a modern policy agenda that will be
:34:21. > :34:29.from a centre prone position. The fact that a man famously
:34:30. > :34:34.unencumbered by self-doubt is struggling make sense of the
:34:35. > :34:36.political landscape is a measure of the uncharted territory we have
:34:37. > :34:41.found ourselves in. Whether the terrain of politics has changed for
:34:42. > :34:44.good or whether we've been on an eventful detour, may be the most
:34:45. > :34:49.pressing political question of our time. Whatever the answer, you'd be
:34:50. > :34:51.sensible to ignore political predictions for the foreseeable
:34:52. > :34:55.future. And I, for one, won't be making any.
:34:56. > :34:59.And you can see a longer version of that interview
:35:00. > :35:01.Ian did with Tony Blair on the Newsnight Youtube channel.
:35:02. > :35:09.Three years ago, an American admiral gave a commencement address
:35:10. > :35:10.to the graduating students of the University
:35:11. > :35:16.It was ten tips for a better life, picked up from his training
:35:17. > :35:25.This was part of the first tip - make your bed when you get up
:35:26. > :35:28.and start the day with a task completed.
:35:29. > :35:31.If you make your bed every morning, you will have accomplished
:35:32. > :35:37.It will give you a small sense of pride and it will encourage
:35:38. > :35:41.you to do another task, and another, and another.
:35:42. > :35:45.And by the end of the day that one task completed will have turned
:35:46. > :35:50.Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that the little
:35:51. > :35:55.If you can't do the little things right, you'll never be able to do
:35:56. > :36:00.The speech - which was full of stories of the brutal training
:36:01. > :36:03.of the Navy SEALS special forces - became something of
:36:04. > :36:09.So much so, that it is now a book, called Make Your Bed.
:36:10. > :36:13.And I'm joined by the man who gave that speech Admiral William McRaven,
:36:14. > :36:17.who is not only a retired admiral but was the man in overall charge
:36:18. > :36:19.of American special operations forces when they took out
:36:20. > :36:36.Very good evening to you. Thanks. Osama bin Laden, one of the most
:36:37. > :36:40.important points in your career, any regrets? No, I think the mission
:36:41. > :36:44.went as we planned it, with one exception. We lost a helicopter on
:36:45. > :36:50.the compound. But having said that, you always plan for worst case
:36:51. > :36:56.scenarios. We had a Plan A, B, C and D. Plan A went askew. We immediately
:36:57. > :37:00.jumped into Plan B. We got our man. Was there ever any chance that he
:37:01. > :37:03.would have come back alive, captured as opposed to killed? Absolutely. A
:37:04. > :37:07.lot of people feel this was a kill-only mission. That was not the
:37:08. > :37:12.case. The strict rules of engagement said that if he is clearly not a
:37:13. > :37:16.threat, then you have to capture him, you can't just kill him. But
:37:17. > :37:20.conversely, I made sure the guys understood if they felt that there
:37:21. > :37:23.was at all a threat, that they had to make the right decision and they
:37:24. > :37:27.have to do that in a split second. So you know, you're coming up onto
:37:28. > :37:30.the third floor, people are moving around, you're on night vision
:37:31. > :37:33.goggles, a lot of things are happening. They made the right
:37:34. > :37:36.decision. You give them that license because they have to take the risk.
:37:37. > :37:41.They protect themselves first. Quite a few Special Forces. After 9/11,
:37:42. > :37:45.the Americans were accused of lawless, reckless behaviour. There
:37:46. > :37:49.have been cases here where there have been charge that's they have
:37:50. > :37:52.killed people, maybe in cold blood, rather than capturing them for
:37:53. > :37:56.various reasons. I believe the Australians have had some issues as
:37:57. > :38:00.well. Is there a culture, of course you give these people discretion,
:38:01. > :38:05.can that turn into a problem where they abuse the power that you have
:38:06. > :38:08.given them? Well, I think in any wartime scenario you have that
:38:09. > :38:12.potential for the soldiers on the ground to abuse the flexibility and
:38:13. > :38:16.latitude you give them. What I used to do, I routinely went out on
:38:17. > :38:19.missions with my forces, so I understood exactly what they were
:38:20. > :38:23.doing and so that they knew that I was kind of keeping a watchful eye
:38:24. > :38:27.over them. I travelled around on a weekly basis to meet with my units.
:38:28. > :38:30.I kept my ear to the ground. Whenever we thought that there might
:38:31. > :38:34.be the potential for some sort of abuse, we investigated it quickly to
:38:35. > :38:39.make sure that there was no bad behaviour. And punished - And held
:38:40. > :38:42.people responsible, absolutely. Let's speak more about general
:38:43. > :38:47.things. You were watching that film with Tony Blair in with me, what was
:38:48. > :38:51.your impression as you watched that, you could probably have run that in
:38:52. > :38:54.the United States. We had the same situation with our past election as
:38:55. > :38:58.there were concerns about the polls. Clearly I think most of the polls
:38:59. > :39:03.suggested that Hillary Clinton would win. Then we have Donald Trump as
:39:04. > :39:13.the president. But I don't think that there was anything necessity
:39:14. > :39:19.fairious amongst -- nefarious amongst the pollsters. They weren't
:39:20. > :39:21.watching the meetings below the surface and got it wrong. Commander
:39:22. > :39:26.in chief is Donald Trump. America, in fact like the United Kingdom, is
:39:27. > :39:29.pretty divided. Does that make it harder for the armed forces, do you
:39:30. > :39:37.think, to serve the country? Not at all. I served for both President
:39:38. > :39:41.Bush and President Obama and I didn't agree with them on a lot of
:39:42. > :39:43.things. But you have a responsibility as a man or woman in
:39:44. > :39:47.uniform to support the Commander in Chief. The Commander in Chief
:39:48. > :39:51.represents the people of the United States and so, I don't think the
:39:52. > :39:54.soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines have any concern about
:39:55. > :39:59.supporting this president or any president. I mean, he's been quite
:40:00. > :40:05.negative about certain things. You know, he mocked McCane's war record.
:40:06. > :40:11.He picked on the Khan family, whose child was, boy was killed in action.
:40:12. > :40:16.Right. What is the Army feeling about serving this man? I think the
:40:17. > :40:19.bigger issue for the soldiers on the ground, in the fox hole, if you
:40:20. > :40:24.will, are they going to get the resources they need to do their job.
:40:25. > :40:29.What the difference between President Trump and candidate Trump,
:40:30. > :40:33.he has said he is going to increase the military budget, so your viewers
:40:34. > :40:41.may not be aware, for seven years we've been under sequestration. The
:40:42. > :40:45.president has said he will open that up and give the military the
:40:46. > :40:50.resources they need. The other thing that gives the soldiers great trust
:40:51. > :40:54.and confidence is that we have, as the Secretary of Defence, former
:40:55. > :40:56.marine general Jim Matis, a wonderful officer. Most of the
:40:57. > :41:03.day-to-day decisions come to the Secretary of Defence. I need very
:41:04. > :41:08.finally to ask you about why, it is basically a-help book, why so happen
:41:09. > :41:15.-- self-help book, why so popular? The ten lessons I talked about when
:41:16. > :41:19.I was trained, are universal lessons. Start the day with a task
:41:20. > :41:22.is important. Don't quit just because times get tough is
:41:23. > :41:26.important. Making sure that you understand that we all go through
:41:27. > :41:30.this. Did t doesn't matter whether you've spent a day in uniform,
:41:31. > :41:33.doesn't matter if you're a guy or a Goole, they are important -- gal,
:41:34. > :41:37.they are important lessons. Thank you very much.
:41:38. > :41:42.Just a quick look at the Times' front page: We were talking about
:41:43. > :41:46.back biting in the Cabinet. May urged to sack her donkey ministers.
:41:47. > :41:51.Squabbling Cabinet must unite PM will say. Meanwhile some of the back
:41:52. > :41:55.biting is continuing. The Guardian leading on the schools there.
:41:56. > :41:58.Getting a little bit extra money. That is all we have time for today.
:41:59. > :42:11.I'm back tomorrow. Until then, good night.
:42:12. > :42:15.Good evening, temperatures will continue to climb during tomorrow.
:42:16. > :42:16.With the