:00:07. > :00:07.Against the odds and against the experts,
:00:08. > :00:21.And this week, he passes the six-month mark.
:00:22. > :00:24.We look back to ask - is he as bad as his critics feared,
:00:25. > :00:29.Has he settled into the job as a more conventional president,
:00:30. > :00:36.We'll examine the record so far on domestic and foreign
:00:37. > :00:40.policy, and look at how the White House has been working.
:00:41. > :00:43.Also tonight, banks beware - is consumer borrowing
:00:44. > :00:55.It is an amber warning light for us. Our job is to make sure the lenders
:00:56. > :00:57.are safe and the main risk to the wider economy comes through the
:00:58. > :00:59.lenders rather than the borrowers. in the past by stories
:01:00. > :01:11.of underage sex. Now he's accused of running some
:01:12. > :01:13.kind of abusive cult. We'll hear from the reporter
:01:14. > :01:21.making the claims. Some never thought he'd make it this
:01:22. > :01:27.far, but Donald Trump is still president and this week,
:01:28. > :01:30.he can say he is six months in. Torrid months, with lots
:01:31. > :01:32.questioning his competence, his legitimacy and his
:01:33. > :01:36.conflicts of interest. But he's still standing
:01:37. > :01:38.and contrary to some How is he doing by the standards
:01:39. > :01:46.of those who never wanted him? And by the standards
:01:47. > :01:49.of those who did? From this day forward,
:01:50. > :01:53.it's going to be only America The Secretary of Homeland Security,
:01:54. > :02:11.working with myself and my staff, will begin immediate construction
:02:12. > :02:23.of a border wall. Michael Flynn, General Flynn,
:02:24. > :02:27.is a wonderful man. I think he's been treated very,
:02:28. > :02:31.very unfairly by the media. Because he wasn't doing
:02:32. > :02:41.a good job, very simply. No politician in history,
:02:42. > :02:56.and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse
:02:57. > :03:05.or more unfairly. I got elected to serve the forgotten
:03:06. > :03:27.men and women of our country, To really prosper, we must lower
:03:28. > :03:50.the tax on business. No-one can look back on the election
:03:51. > :03:53.campaign and see anything other than a Trump victory
:03:54. > :03:57.that was remarkable, often a result of sewing anger
:03:58. > :04:01.and discontent and by setting up His was a victory by the ultimate
:04:02. > :04:08.populist playbook; but it is one thing to win an election with that
:04:09. > :04:10.kind of campaign, quite At times, he's seemed more
:04:11. > :04:16.comfortable in election-type rallies with crowds of adoring supporters
:04:17. > :04:18.in front of him, than he has His administration is an extreme
:04:19. > :04:24.experiment in populist policy making, and it has met challenges
:04:25. > :04:28.such as in the reform Just this afternoon,
:04:29. > :04:32.the idea of repealing The idea now is to let it fail,
:04:33. > :04:39.and then return to it. Let's start by thinking
:04:40. > :04:41.a bit about the conduct Joshua Green is the author
:04:42. > :04:45.of "Devil's Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump and the Storming
:04:46. > :04:47.of the Presidency". I spoke to him
:04:48. > :04:51.a little earlier from New York. Is it right to say that
:04:52. > :04:54.there are two Trumps - or at least that the one Trump
:04:55. > :04:57.is pulled in different directions In the White House he's really
:04:58. > :05:02.split between two groups, the nationalist camp
:05:03. > :05:05.led by Steve Bannon, who have very hard right,
:05:06. > :05:08.aggressive, populist impulses. That is the Donald Trump that ran
:05:09. > :05:13.and won the presidency. But then on the other hand
:05:14. > :05:17.there is a Trump who comes out of the world of New York real
:05:18. > :05:21.estate, is very insecure, has always longed for the approval
:05:22. > :05:23.of the great power brokers on Wall Street and
:05:24. > :05:27.American government. Trump has stocked his administration
:05:28. > :05:29.with many of these people, who generally fall under
:05:30. > :05:33.the rubric of globalists. So this would include his National
:05:34. > :05:36.Economic Council chairman Gary Cohn, His Treasury Secretary,
:05:37. > :05:40.Steven Mnuchin, also The war within the White House
:05:41. > :05:46.during Donald Trump's first six months has been a pitched battle
:05:47. > :05:49.between nationalists and globalists. Well, nobody is really
:05:50. > :05:58.winning is the problem. Trump's legislative agenda has
:05:59. > :06:01.all but collapsed with the death So while there have been some
:06:02. > :06:07.victories for Bannon's nationalists, primarily cracking down
:06:08. > :06:09.on illegal immigration, taking a much harder line
:06:10. > :06:12.against immigrants generally, there haven't been a lot
:06:13. > :06:19.of victories for either camp and that's a subject of great
:06:20. > :06:21.concern to everybody Because when things don't go well,
:06:22. > :06:26.President Trump reacts very badly. One of the concerns was there
:06:27. > :06:29.was a sort of fruitcake fringe In fact, Bannon was sometimes
:06:30. > :06:37.attached to that and in your book you talk about Robert Mercer,
:06:38. > :06:41.the hedge fund guy who financed Bannon and Breitbart,
:06:42. > :06:44.who certainly had some wacky people, let's say, who he was
:06:45. > :06:50.supporting beforehand. Have the "grown-ups"
:06:51. > :06:53.mostly got a grip in No, I don't think that anybody,
:06:54. > :07:01.any of Trump's camps of advisers ever have a solid grip on Trump
:07:02. > :07:07.for very long. The cycle we've seen again
:07:08. > :07:09.and again, we saw this during the campaign,
:07:10. > :07:13.we've certainly seen it in the White House,
:07:14. > :07:16.is that for a time, advisers will be able to contain Trump,
:07:17. > :07:18.to stop him from tweeting or saying or doing outrageous
:07:19. > :07:20.things but invariably, Trump
:07:21. > :07:22.loses his patience and will go off director James Comey,
:07:23. > :07:29.that plunges his administration
:07:30. > :07:37.back into chaos. And chaos has been pretty
:07:38. > :07:40.much the natural state of Trump's White House these
:07:41. > :07:41.first six months. Are there any forces there who think
:07:42. > :07:45.chaos is kind of a good It wants to kick things around,
:07:46. > :07:48.it wants to change everything, Bannon, Steve Bannon
:07:49. > :07:51.has always been a big believer that chaos is good,
:07:52. > :07:55.it helps Trump. It was during the campaign
:07:56. > :07:56.where Trump unleashed The problem is that when you're
:07:57. > :08:03.in the White House, when you're the president,
:08:04. > :08:05.chaos doesn't actually What Trump needs to do
:08:06. > :08:12.and what he has so far been unable to do is organise a congressional
:08:13. > :08:14.coalition of his own party members Tell us a little about egos
:08:15. > :08:21.in the White House. It was said that Bannon and Trump
:08:22. > :08:24.fell out when Bannon made Donald Trump is and always has been
:08:25. > :08:31.deeply insecure, especially And after he was elected
:08:32. > :08:38.and Steve Bannon entered the popular imagination as this kind of dark
:08:39. > :08:45.Rasputin, pulling Trump's strings, Saturday Night Live referring to him
:08:46. > :08:49.as "President Bannon," kind of a running joke, Trump
:08:50. > :08:52.himself took great offence at that, The only thing that's brought him
:08:53. > :09:00.back in is the Russia scandal. The fact that has entangled
:09:01. > :09:04.so many of Trump's senior advisers. Do you think that by the end of four
:09:05. > :09:14.years there will be something which we will identify,
:09:15. > :09:16.be able to call Trumpism that will be the Trump doctrine
:09:17. > :09:19.or the Trump way? I think Trump would like there to be
:09:20. > :09:21.but it isn't exactly I think Steve Bannon and Trump
:09:22. > :09:26.the candidate had a pretty clear idea of what Trumpism would be,
:09:27. > :09:29.and it would be a different third A populism that was less harsh,
:09:30. > :09:32.more geared towards working-class ordinary American voters
:09:33. > :09:34.than the typical Republican The problem is as soon as Trump got
:09:35. > :09:40.into the White House, he took up the same conservative
:09:41. > :09:45.agenda of the politicians who he'd just vanquished
:09:46. > :09:49.in the GOP nomination fight, and he has wound up in a cul-de-sac
:09:50. > :09:53.where he can't pass the legislation that's not popular and so it's not
:09:54. > :09:56.clear that Trump knows Joshua Green, thank
:09:57. > :09:59.you very much indeed. Many of those who voted
:10:00. > :10:06.for Trump, voted for change. We sent a camera out to Alexandria
:10:07. > :10:15.in Virginia to see what Trump supporters themselves cite
:10:16. > :10:17.as his biggest achievement to date - The best thing, I think he's
:10:18. > :10:26.really trying to like, tighten the borders and focus
:10:27. > :10:29.on security a little bit more. I'm a Trump guy but I'm not
:10:30. > :10:31.a Trump behaviour guy. But he's doing what he said
:10:32. > :10:35.he was going to do and the Republican Congress is not
:10:36. > :10:37.allowing him to do, But other than that,
:10:38. > :10:44.he's doing what no-one thought he could do and no-one
:10:45. > :10:46.expected him to do. We just like all of his stands
:10:47. > :10:50.in the Middle East, all his opinions and sides
:10:51. > :10:56.and, you know. We stand by him not
:10:57. > :10:59.doing the France Accord. Because we don't really
:11:00. > :11:05.believe in climate change. I don't know, starting work
:11:06. > :11:11.on the immigration thing and the tax, getting
:11:12. > :11:13.a new tax law started. I think health-care needs
:11:14. > :11:23.to change drastically. Of course foreign relations
:11:24. > :11:25.I think need to improve. And jobs, I'm happy
:11:26. > :11:27.that the stock market I think that might be one
:11:28. > :11:35.of the best things he's done Voices from Trump
:11:36. > :11:42.supporters in Virginia. Well, Anne Applebaum
:11:43. > :11:43.is a visiting professor at the London School
:11:44. > :11:45.of Economics Institute of Global Affairs and
:11:46. > :11:47.a Washington Post columnist. Elisabeth Bumiller writes
:11:48. > :11:57.on politics for the New York Times. Elisabeth, you're going to be our
:11:58. > :12:02.domestic affairs policy and -- person. You were something of a
:12:03. > :12:05.critic, you were not a fan in the election campaign. As he settled
:12:06. > :12:11.into something more conventional than you expected? No, the trouble
:12:12. > :12:15.with Trump, as your previous interview alluded, is that he hasn't
:12:16. > :12:19.settled into anything at all. Almost every statement he makes on foreign
:12:20. > :12:24.policy can be heard in two ways, he contradicts himself. On Europe, if
:12:25. > :12:28.you listen to the speech he made in Warsaw ten days ago, you can hear
:12:29. > :12:34.the different strands of his administration in the speech. There
:12:35. > :12:41.was a nationalist almost apocalyptic stance, against dark forces, and
:12:42. > :12:45.something that sounded like an ordinary Republican talking about
:12:46. > :12:53.Nato. You can choose which of those strands you would like to hear. Does
:12:54. > :12:58.that implied there is a state of paralysis? It sounds like a child in
:12:59. > :13:05.a car who can turn on the windscreen wipers and so one but doesn't know
:13:06. > :13:11.how to make the cargo, it has been said. -- make the car go. But he
:13:12. > :13:15.hasn't crashed the car. We don't have people to do the foreign
:13:16. > :13:19.policy, he hasn't selected people to work for him and we don't have any
:13:20. > :13:24.clear direction. He has withdrawn from a few things, he isn't leading
:13:25. > :13:30.anywhere. His policy in Syria is no different to Obama's. Europe, he has
:13:31. > :13:38.said different things at different times and in China he appears to be
:13:39. > :13:41.directed by President Xi. Elizabeth, domestic policy, there has been this
:13:42. > :13:47.huge setback for his agenda today on health care reform. What do you
:13:48. > :13:52.think his supporters will feel about the domestic agenda and how far it's
:13:53. > :13:56.gone? I think they would say that he hasn't done much of what he promised
:13:57. > :14:03.to do and that they would blame Congress for it, the Democrats. He
:14:04. > :14:10.has, he's big domestic policies were immigration, building a wall,
:14:11. > :14:18.repealing health care, and he has, you know, he has not improved the
:14:19. > :14:22.economy. On health care it has been a big disappointment to him today
:14:23. > :14:28.because the Senate bill failed and really there is no way forward. It
:14:29. > :14:32.failed in large part because there were deep divisions within the
:14:33. > :14:35.Republican party, a number of moderate Republicans couldn't vote
:14:36. > :14:40.for it because of the deep cuts in Medicaid in their states. At the
:14:41. > :14:48.same time, some Conservative Republicans were opposed because it
:14:49. > :14:52.did not cut Medicaid enough. He's been a victim of the divisions
:14:53. > :14:58.within his own party as well as the fact that the Democrats oppose him.
:14:59. > :15:04.But why hasn't he just built a semblance of war, a piece of the
:15:05. > :15:11.war? It can't take somebody that long to go in and just show them...
:15:12. > :15:15.Because we have a system where there is Congress and the White House and
:15:16. > :15:18.the Supreme Court, and Congress appropriates the money for such
:15:19. > :15:24.things and Congress did not give him the money in the Budget. They gave
:15:25. > :15:31.him just enough to repair about 70 miles of the wall, which is
:15:32. > :15:36.repairing a fence on the border. The border is over 2000 miles long. So
:15:37. > :15:42.he keeps saying he wants the wall. In fact it's going to be very
:15:43. > :15:47.difficult financially to build it. Right. Is it the situation,
:15:48. > :15:51.Elizabeth, that populism meets the complexities of government, and is
:15:52. > :15:56.that the way of characterising this experiment in populist
:15:57. > :16:00.policy-making? Well, I think that all so what happened is Trump had no
:16:01. > :16:04.experience in government before. He ran a company and it was a family
:16:05. > :16:13.business and that kind of situation with the chief executives, he has
:16:14. > :16:17.discovered, and he said this publicly, is how difficult it is to
:16:18. > :16:20.get things done, because you have to bring along Congress, you have an
:16:21. > :16:26.opposition party and you also have courts that go against you. That was
:16:27. > :16:31.the way our system was set up and he is finding that there are checks and
:16:32. > :16:35.balances in the American government. OK, one of the Sears was that
:16:36. > :16:39.somehow this guy with this rather chaotic way of doing things, very
:16:40. > :16:43.capricious, would undermine institutions, the great institutions
:16:44. > :16:49.of the world or the United States. Do you see any of that going on? --
:16:50. > :16:54.one of the fears. Yes. There are some things he hasn't been able to
:16:55. > :16:57.undermine but we have ethics laws in the United States. This was a very
:16:58. > :17:01.small story but the head of the office of ethics in the US resigned
:17:02. > :17:04.this week because he said it was pointless to try to enforce the
:17:05. > :17:09.rules any more. A lot of these things were norms and rules and
:17:10. > :17:14.regulations rather than actual laws, but people conform to them and Trump
:17:15. > :17:22.doesn't and his family doesn't conform to them. But in terms of
:17:23. > :17:30.leadership, was it...? We could almost say it was angular Merkel
:17:31. > :17:34.that leads the West, but... He has made various different kinds of
:17:35. > :17:39.statements about Nato and we have to assume... You know, we can take
:17:40. > :17:43.which ever one we want to believe. But the idea that the US was the
:17:44. > :17:48.leader in trade and was the country that believed in more economic
:17:49. > :17:53.interaction with the world, that doesn't exist any more. The idea
:17:54. > :17:58.that the US was a convener of other nations and could reach mutual
:17:59. > :18:04.agreements, that doesn't work any more. So the idea that the United
:18:05. > :18:08.States was a power in the Pacific, that could fall under question as
:18:09. > :18:12.well. So a lot of the assumptions made about American power have been
:18:13. > :18:15.undermined. It has only been six months and he's been very lucky in a
:18:16. > :18:23.way because there hasn't been a major crisis. Well, North Korea...
:18:24. > :18:27.Well, that hasn't happened yet and nobody has invaded a country,
:18:28. > :18:31.nothing for him to respond to, so we haven't seen how an administration
:18:32. > :18:37.that doesn't have any foreign policy staff will react to a foreign policy
:18:38. > :18:40.crisis yet. Let's go back to the domestic agenda. This issue of
:18:41. > :18:44.undermining institutions and integrity and the things that have
:18:45. > :18:50.built up over hundreds of years in the US - tube eye that there's been
:18:51. > :19:01.some of that going on or not? Sure, but in many ways I am more positive
:19:02. > :19:05.and I feel that this is a lesson in how the government is supposed to
:19:06. > :19:08.work. She's right about the ethics violations but look at what happened
:19:09. > :19:14.to health care. It did not get through Congress. Look at his two
:19:15. > :19:19.travel bans. They were struck down by a court and he had to come back.
:19:20. > :19:23.There was then a new one but the Supreme Court allowed a part of the
:19:24. > :19:28.travel ban but the courts were reacting the way they were supposed
:19:29. > :19:31.to. And then I would argue the press as well. Obviously he's been very
:19:32. > :19:38.tough on the press but I also think this has been a good run for the
:19:39. > :19:44.press because we have healthy administration accountable and we've
:19:45. > :19:48.written a lot of stories and exposed a lot of stories. There have been a
:19:49. > :19:52.lot of investigations and we've been on the Russia story quite a bit, so
:19:53. > :19:56.I think that's working as well. I'm looking at it in a more positive
:19:57. > :19:58.way. A different perspective but an interesting one. Thank you both very
:19:59. > :20:01.much indeed. The Grenfell Tower fire has
:20:02. > :20:03.naturally got everyone looking very hard at building design,
:20:04. > :20:06.not least local authorities worried about the stock of renovated
:20:07. > :20:08.towers on their estates. It's clear we need an audit
:20:09. > :20:10.of what we've got, with what materials bolted
:20:11. > :20:13.on the outside. And this is where it
:20:14. > :20:15.gets interesting working There are three ways to get
:20:16. > :20:19.a building signed off. The key words are "limited
:20:20. > :20:24.combustibility". One, you can clad a building
:20:25. > :20:27.in material that is all of limited combustibility, as that
:20:28. > :20:30.won't burn badly. Two, you can use elements
:20:31. > :20:34.of combustible material, but it has to have been fire-tested
:20:35. > :20:41.to see that in its particular combination, it is of
:20:42. > :20:44.limited combustibility. And three, if the combination hasn't
:20:45. > :20:48.been fire-tested then you have to have a desktop study that shows
:20:49. > :20:51.it is materially the same as stuff So if the material isn't
:20:52. > :20:58.all resistant to fire then it needs to have been tested one
:20:59. > :20:59.way or another. But guess what - councils cannot get
:21:00. > :21:02.the the test results. I'm joined by Lord Porter,
:21:03. > :21:11.Gary Porter, who is the chairman A very good evening to you. I hope
:21:12. > :21:17.I've summarised the position adequately. But, look, you want to
:21:18. > :21:21.know the results of different combinations of materials and how
:21:22. > :21:25.they have got through fire tests. Yes, we've been arguing since just
:21:26. > :21:28.after the day of the fire that the whole thing should be tested and not
:21:29. > :21:33.just the core of the panels, and those tests need to be properly
:21:34. > :21:38.tested, and we are pleased the Government has agreed they will do
:21:39. > :21:42.that, or the experts have, at least. Once those tests have been done,
:21:43. > :21:46.they need to be made public, and more importantly, the result is done
:21:47. > :21:49.by the private sector, which are subject intellectual property
:21:50. > :21:54.rights, also need to be done. But they've done those tests before,
:21:55. > :21:59.haven't they? To be able to say, yes, we can use that combination
:22:00. > :22:02.because we've tested it. They have been done but we are yet to see the
:22:03. > :22:07.results. Those companies are under no obligation to share the results
:22:08. > :22:12.with the wider public. Had you asked them? We have asked them and we've
:22:13. > :22:18.asked members of the public require that the contractual basis means
:22:19. > :22:25.that is shared. So the testing companies or the cladding companies?
:22:26. > :22:28.The BR East says they cannot share the results. They have said they
:22:29. > :22:34.can't share those results because they are subject intellectual
:22:35. > :22:39.property. So quite seriously, you want to know which cladding
:22:40. > :22:44.combinations are safe and stack up in systems, and they simply say, we
:22:45. > :22:49.cannot tell you. Because the tests they've done belong to the companies
:22:50. > :22:56.they've done the tests for. So you ask the company, then? That's what
:22:57. > :22:59.we're doing now. With putting pressure through councils, housing
:23:00. > :23:05.associations... But do they not just send you the results? Will they? I'm
:23:06. > :23:10.happy -- I'm acting on the basis of this new story tonight and I expect
:23:11. > :23:15.companies will be rushing to tell the Government, here, have access to
:23:16. > :23:24.all our data! But you find it slow and a bit lethargic. Try to find
:23:25. > :23:28.somebody who has had access to them. There is a worry that the testing
:23:29. > :23:34.system, rather than as a way of stopping unsafe things, has become a
:23:35. > :23:39.system for, well, let's see if there's a way we can get this to
:23:40. > :23:44.pass. Is that your one? My worry is that the public will never have
:23:45. > :23:47.faith in what is done unless it is done in a transparent way. If we
:23:48. > :23:51.want people to feel safe in a tower block we have to convince them that
:23:52. > :23:55.all the information is out of the public domain, and for me as a
:23:56. > :23:58.council leader and representative of a council, that's what's important.
:23:59. > :24:02.I'm not looking for somebody to blame. I'm looking for somebody to
:24:03. > :24:06.reassure the public that it is safe to be in those buildings. Presumably
:24:07. > :24:10.the Government could instruct the lads, you will tell us what the
:24:11. > :24:21.results are of the tests you have had done. -- the laboratories. But
:24:22. > :24:24.they are not part of the Government. Well, emergency law... You would
:24:25. > :24:31.need to talk to a lawyer! I don't know what would be needed. It is not
:24:32. > :24:35.just the cladding, it is the installation. We argued from the
:24:36. > :24:39.start that the installation is almost certainly going to be a
:24:40. > :24:42.contributory factor in some instances. Not at all, because there
:24:43. > :24:46.are some Willie could types out there, but there are some that like
:24:47. > :24:52.fire. -- there are some very good types. It needs to cover the whole
:24:53. > :24:57.of that system. I used to be a bricklayer and I think all buildings
:24:58. > :25:00.should be clad in bricks and not any other material, but that is just a
:25:01. > :25:04.personal interest! Thank you very much.
:25:05. > :25:06.If you weren't worried about enough things already,
:25:07. > :25:08.here's another one - consumer credit.
:25:09. > :25:10.For all the lessons of the financial crash that started ten
:25:11. > :25:12.years ago this summer, the Western world has
:25:13. > :25:14.not really found a way to stimulate spending,
:25:15. > :25:16.activity and growth without letting debt grow.
:25:17. > :25:18.In the 2000s, it was US sub-prime mortgages that
:25:19. > :25:20.kicked off the crisis, but it is unmortaged
:25:21. > :25:22.credit here that is now the immediate concern.
:25:23. > :25:27.They've supported spending and perhaps given a rather
:25:28. > :25:31.flattering impression of our economic performance.
:25:32. > :25:33.Unfortunately, consumer credit has been growing much faster
:25:34. > :25:36.than consumer incomes, and that can't go on forever.
:25:37. > :25:44.Our business editor Helen Thomas has been looking at the data.
:25:45. > :25:48.# Oh, the credit card blues sure will get you down
:25:49. > :25:57.Loans, leases, leverage - call it what you want,
:25:58. > :25:59.the UK is amassing more of it, and that raises questions
:26:00. > :26:07.The Bank of England is keeping an eye on lending to Britain's
:26:08. > :26:15.What seems to be happening is that lenders are willing to make credit
:26:16. > :26:19.cheaper and expand the supply of it into new areas, and that's why it's
:26:20. > :26:25.an amber warning light for us, because our job is to make sure that
:26:26. > :26:28.lenders are safe and the main risk to the wider economy here actually
:26:29. > :26:31.come through the lenders rather than the borrowers.
:26:32. > :26:34.The regulator has told banks to hold more capital,
:26:35. > :26:42.It will also stress-test potential losses.
:26:43. > :26:49.This is British households' debt relative to their income.
:26:50. > :26:52.It rose before the financial crisis, fell sharply, and now it's
:26:53. > :27:00.That includes mortgages, though, which have been pretty steady.
:27:01. > :27:06.The problem is consumer lending, here in red.
:27:07. > :27:09.That rose by about 10% over the last year, much faster
:27:10. > :27:16.Credit card debt is growing quickly, here in yellow,
:27:17. > :27:20.but the real eye-catcher, this blue line, car finance,
:27:21. > :27:27.has been growing at over 15% a year since 2013.
:27:28. > :27:30.The reason for that is a fundamental change in how we are
:27:31. > :27:37.Well, we're not really buying them at all.
:27:38. > :27:39.It's boosted business here, a busy showroom owned by Pendragon,
:27:40. > :27:47.A whole generation of people has been brought up with a different
:27:48. > :27:59.mentality, and so if you look at a device like that, you know,
:28:00. > :28:01.my kids would think it very strange that you would go
:28:02. > :28:05.What they're looking forward to is the end of the contract
:28:06. > :28:08.and when they can refresh it with the latest model.
:28:09. > :28:10.Well, why would it be any different in cars?
:28:11. > :28:13.Four out of five new cars are now financed with something called
:28:14. > :28:16.That means a monthly payment for two or four years,
:28:17. > :28:19.then you upgrade to the latest model or pay a pre-agreed lump
:28:20. > :28:27.Making a decision to buy a car is now a smaller decision
:28:28. > :28:30.psychologically because people are committing to make smaller
:28:31. > :28:34.payments for a shorter term, and whereas historically somebody
:28:35. > :28:40.would think about spending ?15,000, now they're probably thinking
:28:41. > :28:45.about making payments of ?240, ?250, and then doing the same thing
:28:46. > :28:48.again potentially two or three years later but getting a fresh car
:28:49. > :29:04.But people actually tend to keep paying their car loans.
:29:05. > :29:09.They need their cars to get to work or to get the kids to school.
:29:10. > :29:11.A slump in used-car values could mean losses for lenders.
:29:12. > :29:14.But the Central Bank thinks even a 30% drop would only mean
:29:15. > :29:17.But cars aren't all we've been shopping for.
:29:18. > :29:23.With longer and longer interest-free periods,
:29:24. > :29:26.personal loans have been getting cheaper and cheaper.
:29:27. > :29:37.Overall, credit has been more easily available as companies
:29:38. > :29:42.What does this build-up mean for the banking system,
:29:43. > :29:49.the financial stability, and what about the UK economy?
:29:50. > :29:51.Would a slowdown in debt-fuelled spending mean hazards ahead?
:29:52. > :29:54.Jim Ballantyne used credit cards to start a business but his debts
:29:55. > :29:56.mounted after a serious accident left him unable to work.
:29:57. > :30:03.He's now tackling that with the help of the money advice service.
:30:04. > :30:10.I wish I could explain better what I haven't dealt with it sooner.
:30:11. > :30:17.When I contacted the debt change charity,
:30:18. > :30:20.they went through a budget for me and told me what I already knew,
:30:21. > :30:23.which was that it was unsustainable and there was absolutely no way
:30:24. > :30:26.I could pay these debts, and that I should write to these people,
:30:27. > :30:30.and gave me a form letter to do so, and yet it's taken me three or four
:30:31. > :30:32.months actually to get around to doing that.
:30:33. > :30:40.I think burying your head in the sand is very common.
:30:41. > :30:44.More consumers are only paying the minimum balances on their credit
:30:45. > :30:49.cards and the Bank of England last week reported to signs that default
:30:50. > :30:57.If you look back over the last few years, it's very typical for lottery
:30:58. > :31:00.If you look back over the last few years, it's very
:31:01. > :31:03.on consumer debt to be more than ten times those
:31:04. > :31:06.on mortgage lending, and that's why banks
:31:07. > :31:08.and their exposure to consumer debt generally are a key driver
:31:09. > :31:10.of how strong they are, how resilient they are.
:31:11. > :31:13.As we've seen so many times in the past, lending standards
:31:14. > :31:15.in this market can go from the seemingly fairly
:31:16. > :31:22.responsible to pretty reckless fairly quickly,
:31:23. > :31:28.and that's why after a period of rapid growth, we're taking action
:31:29. > :31:33.to make sure this market evolves in a sustainable and prudent way.
:31:34. > :31:35.Is this house of cards already teetering?
:31:36. > :31:39.Losses on consumer credit mount when unemployment rises.
:31:40. > :31:41.It still at multi-decade lows for now.
:31:42. > :31:43.But tighter credit is only one pressure on households.
:31:44. > :31:46.Real wages are falling, saving rates are at record lows.
:31:47. > :31:47.Consumer spending, the powerhouse of the economy,
:31:48. > :31:59.They'll keep sending them cards till you get into so much
:32:00. > :32:05.Robert Kelly, better known as R Kelly, is undisputed as one
:32:06. > :32:07.of the most important R singers ever.
:32:08. > :32:15.He's sold tens of millions of albums, he's been at the top
:32:16. > :32:18.of the music industry for three decades.
:32:19. > :32:21.His most pop-y and familiar track, I Believe I Can Fly,
:32:22. > :32:34.# I believe I can touch the sky... #
:32:35. > :32:36.He's written for Michael Jackson, collaborated with Jay-Z,
:32:37. > :32:38.played professional basketball and been a hero to many fans.
:32:39. > :32:45.# I see me running through that open door.
:32:46. > :32:48.But his image has been more than a little tainted by persistent
:32:49. > :32:52.allegations of sexual predation of underage girls.
:32:53. > :32:55.The weird story of his annulled marriage in the '90s
:32:56. > :32:59.to the singer Aaliyah - she was 14; the lawsuits
:33:00. > :33:01.against him by women who say they had underage sex.
:33:02. > :33:04.In the 2000s, he was charged with videotaping sexual acts
:33:05. > :33:10.And then yesterday, Buzzfeed's Jim DeRogatis alleged
:33:11. > :33:13.that he is keeping six women in a kind of abusive cult,
:33:14. > :33:19.He denies he has abused women, or had underage sex.
:33:20. > :33:21.Whatever the truth of the allegations, it's perhaps
:33:22. > :33:23.remarkable that his career has progressed as
:33:24. > :33:35.I'm joined by Jim DeRogatis and freelance journalist
:33:36. > :33:46.Jim, let me start with you. Take us through these allegations. One of
:33:47. > :33:52.the women today said she is fine and isn't being held against her will,
:33:53. > :33:59.nothing to worry about. Yes, her parents say she is brainwashed, that
:34:00. > :34:04.is their work, and the victim of a cult, our world, and Buzzfeed's
:34:05. > :34:07.report, which I worked on for nine months, has two sets of parents and
:34:08. > :34:12.three women who bravely spoke on the record, two who were involved in
:34:13. > :34:17.sexual relationships with Kelly and one of whom worked as his personal
:34:18. > :34:21.assistant and saw this behaviour for a long time. They say that these
:34:22. > :34:26.women are mentally and physically abused. They are told when they can
:34:27. > :34:33.eat, went to sleep, when two bays, that they must not before entering
:34:34. > :34:37.or leaving any room, and to turn and face the wall if any male friends
:34:38. > :34:41.are present and how to sexually pleasure him in encounters that he
:34:42. > :34:45.records and their cellphones are taken away, they are separated from
:34:46. > :34:50.friends and family and given a new cellphone that is only used to
:34:51. > :34:55.communicate with him or with his permission. Extraordinary situation
:34:56. > :34:59.you are describing. Take us through the allegations. There is a lot of
:35:00. > :35:03.history here. Take us through some of the allegations because you have
:35:04. > :35:09.worked on them in the past as well. I broke the story in 2000 of him
:35:10. > :35:17.consistently abusing his position of wealth and fame to pursue illegal
:35:18. > :35:21.sexual Asian ships with -- illegal sexual relationships with underage
:35:22. > :35:26.girls. In a video prosecutors alleged showed him having sex with
:35:27. > :35:33.and you're in aiding in the mouth of a 14-year-old girl, it came to me at
:35:34. > :35:38.Chicago Sun Times and he was indicted for making child
:35:39. > :35:41.pornography, it took six and a half years to go to trial and he was
:35:42. > :35:46.acquitted by a jury of his peers. I believe this is classic rape
:35:47. > :35:52.culture. The victim, the young girl on the tape, her mother and father
:35:53. > :35:58.never testified. The jury heard from 36 other witnesses, friends,
:35:59. > :36:03.basketball coach, teachers, who testified that it was the girl and
:36:04. > :36:10.that was her age, and she was acquitted. There have been numerous
:36:11. > :36:16.civil law suit filed that said that either Kelly had illegal sexual
:36:17. > :36:22.relations with them when they were underage or he video taped
:36:23. > :36:27.encounters without their knowledge. Important to say that he has denied
:36:28. > :36:33.the allegations. He has paid large cash settlements to the women who
:36:34. > :36:37.have sued him. You went to his school, Jamie, and you saw the cult
:36:38. > :36:44.of personality that at least gave a kind of power that he had over
:36:45. > :36:49.people. I did. I was a freshman at the academy when I first saw R
:36:50. > :36:55.Kelly. He would come to visit teachers, the music department's
:36:56. > :37:02.various teachers and we would always see him leaving with a girl. And I
:37:03. > :37:08.think it was one of the worst kept secrets. We didn't think much of it.
:37:09. > :37:14.While ready knew that he had a fondness for young girls. I don't
:37:15. > :37:18.want to presume his guilt here but obviously girls have said that they
:37:19. > :37:23.had underage sex with him. What reaction is there when people come
:37:24. > :37:29.forward and say that? Do people blame the girls or the man? There is
:37:30. > :37:38.a tendency to blame the girls. When I read about this in 2013, we were
:37:39. > :37:44.taught that it is usually on the young girl to steer clear of the
:37:45. > :37:52.predator. If she puts herself in the line of danger then it is on her, if
:37:53. > :37:57.horrible consequences befall. It's so ingrained in us that we don't
:37:58. > :38:04.really, we don't really interrogate it. So when the story broke in 2000,
:38:05. > :38:08.you know, a lot of us were reading the Times back then thinking,
:38:09. > :38:12.finally, someone is bringing this to light because no one ever talks
:38:13. > :38:16.about it. Some would say that there is a race elements to this, that
:38:17. > :38:20.society asks fewer questions about the welfare of black girls than
:38:21. > :38:26.white girls. Is there anything in that or is it pure celebrity
:38:27. > :38:30.culture, people think that celebrities are celebrities? There
:38:31. > :38:35.are a lot of things, including the fact that these girls are
:38:36. > :38:45.African-American. I think there is a Georgetown... There is like, it was
:38:46. > :38:49.recently found that black girls are seen as older compared to white
:38:50. > :38:59.girls and are less vulnerable. That, coupled with R Kelly's hometown hero
:39:00. > :39:04.status sort of made it easier for him may be to take advantage of
:39:05. > :39:08.these girls. Jim, can I ask, in some ways, I don't want to presume guilt,
:39:09. > :39:13.I want to be open-minded, but some would say that it is amazing that
:39:14. > :39:21.someone with so much said about him doesn't have a tiny brand. -- a
:39:22. > :39:25.tarnished brand. In the UK there is a lot of concern about these issues
:39:26. > :39:31.right now. And I think there is in the US as well, with someone like
:39:32. > :39:38.Bill Cosby and you have spoken about Jimmy Savile. I'm mystified about
:39:39. > :39:42.this. It is hard to walk far in the music amenities in Chicago on the
:39:43. > :39:45.west and south sides and now in Atlanta and not find young women who
:39:46. > :39:53.have been damaged by their associations with Kelly, allegedly.
:39:54. > :40:01.There is a 25 year Trail of lawsuits, the Aaliyah marriage, the
:40:02. > :40:05.trial for child pawn and the video tape is a horrifying documentary of
:40:06. > :40:07.a rape, I believe, and now these parents want their daughters home.
:40:08. > :40:21.Thank you both very much indeed. We will leave you with the work of
:40:22. > :40:25.National Geographic, capturing a hummingbird drinking in a wind
:40:26. > :40:47.tunnel, the work of Anand Varma. # Oh my hopeless wonder music Mac
:40:48. > :41:07.you can't come in # You can't come in
:41:08. > :41:30.# You don't live here any more # Creepy conjurer...
:41:31. > :41:35.That evening, some southern areas have seen quite a few thunderstorms
:41:36. > :41:40.going through this evening and they will continue tonight and into
:41:41. > :41:41.tomorrow, drifting erratically over northern England, Scotland and some
:41:42. > :41:42.in Northern