:00:00. > :00:07.Good evening and welcome to Washington,
:00:08. > :00:19.where tonight the raging storm is a political one.
:00:20. > :00:21.This capital city is buzzing tonight
:00:22. > :00:24.with vicious intrigue and raw politics.
:00:25. > :00:27.The President is at daggers drawn with the man he appointed
:00:28. > :00:35.Donald Trump cannot forgive Mr Sessions for recusing himself
:00:36. > :00:38.from an FBI inquiry into any Russian meddling in last year's election -
:00:39. > :00:41.an inquiry which, if you're looking from the White House,
:00:42. > :00:45.Cue a volley of angry tweets from the President
:00:46. > :00:47.against a member of his own Cabinet this week,
:00:48. > :00:51.calling the Attorney General "weak" and "beleaguered".
:00:52. > :00:54.All this on the very day he struggled
:00:55. > :00:56.to get a major piece of legislation on reforming health care
:00:57. > :01:01.And into this maelstrom walks the British International Trade
:01:02. > :01:06.He wants a big international trade agreement with the United States.
:01:07. > :01:08.He needs it desperately if Brexit is to be a success.
:01:09. > :01:12.President Trump rolled out senior Republicans to meet Dr Fox,
:01:13. > :01:16.including the House Speaker, Paul Ryan.
:01:17. > :01:19.But when Trump tweets that a UK trade deal is big and exciting,
:01:20. > :01:27.Before we came on air, I spoke to Liam Fox
:01:28. > :01:29.about Trump, trade and - yes - chicken.
:01:30. > :01:33.First, the big picture of what's at stake.
:01:34. > :01:37.At 4:16am this morning, the President of the United States's
:01:38. > :01:41.Twitter account enthused over Liam Fox's visit.
:01:42. > :01:45."Our special relationship with the UK is going to be even
:01:46. > :01:48.better, the US trade representative and UK's Liam Fox met today to begin
:01:49. > :01:57.A few hours later, so too did @realDonaldTrump -
:01:58. > :02:01."Working on major trade deal with the United Kingdom,
:02:02. > :02:04.could be very big and exciting, JOBS!"
:02:05. > :02:06."The EU is very protectionist with the US, stop!"
:02:07. > :02:09.Today there was good economic news for the Government at home.
:02:10. > :02:12.BMW announced they will build the fully electric version
:02:13. > :02:15.of the Mini at its Cowley plant near Oxford.
:02:16. > :02:22.The mood music may be positive, but Washington has long-standing
:02:23. > :02:25.gripes with EU restrictions that they'd like rid off.
:02:26. > :02:29.First, there's what's been called chlorination chicken.
:02:30. > :02:31.The US wants to sell us birds washed in chlorine -
:02:32. > :02:36.they insist they do not pose a health risk to consumers.
:02:37. > :02:38.Then there's hormone-boosted beef that the US insists
:02:39. > :02:46.The US wants to be able to sell us whisky aged less than three years -
:02:47. > :02:49.they call the current three-year requirement unwarranted.
:02:50. > :02:52.They complain that their corn exports are being hit
:02:53. > :02:56.And Washington has UK Government subsidies of Rolls-Royce
:02:57. > :03:07.Plenty for the Trade Secretary to consider, and time is pressing.
:03:08. > :03:10.I spoke Liam Fox just hours after that President Trump tweet
:03:11. > :03:14.about a "big, exciting" trade deal between the UK and the USA.
:03:15. > :03:16.I began by asking him which sectors or industries in the UK
:03:17. > :03:21.should be excited about a potential trade deal.
:03:22. > :03:28.We've been initiating a process of trade and investment working groups
:03:29. > :03:34.here, and there are four of them, one on continuity arrangements, that
:03:35. > :03:38.party to us by virtue of our membership of the EU, and we have to
:03:39. > :03:44.ensure they are replicated to ensure continuity of market access. We have
:03:45. > :03:47.been looking at areas where we can make short-term breakthroughs in
:03:48. > :03:52.liberalisation while we're still in the EU. In terms of business is all
:03:53. > :03:55.sectors, who are you thinking of? The third area is preparation for
:03:56. > :04:00.free trade agreements, and we have got working groups looking across
:04:01. > :04:03.the normal sectors to see where the opportunities might exist, and then
:04:04. > :04:07.our fourth group is looking at where we can work bilaterally to improve
:04:08. > :04:11.market access for both the US and the UK and across the global
:04:12. > :04:15.markets. So it is not a single focus at this point, it is great to have
:04:16. > :04:18.the enthusiasm of the American side in the process, and it has been very
:04:19. > :04:22.evident in the warmth with which we have been received here, but we are
:04:23. > :04:27.still a long way from being able to set out details of where we think
:04:28. > :04:31.the major breakthroughs would come, that is why we have officials. We
:04:32. > :04:35.know the Treasury has asked you to show how all this free trade will
:04:36. > :04:37.bring more value than any trade that is lost from the EU.
:04:38. > :04:42.Well, I don't accept the premise of the question,
:04:43. > :04:44.because it makes the assumption that we will lose value from our
:04:45. > :04:49.Well, we have to lose either the EU deal or the American deal.
:04:50. > :04:51.No, we don't, we don't have to lose anything at all.
:04:52. > :04:56.We haven't begun our negotiations with the EU yet on
:04:57. > :04:58.a future free trade agreement, and we begin from a very good
:04:59. > :05:00.position of zero tariffs and absolute regulatory equivalence.
:05:01. > :05:04.So that, technically, removes a lot of the barriers to difficulty.
:05:05. > :05:08.We are aiming that we will have a very open
:05:09. > :05:10.and comprehensive trading deal with the European Union,
:05:11. > :05:13.and our aim is to give all our businesses the same rights
:05:14. > :05:19.Now, how possible that will be, we won't know until we begin
:05:20. > :05:24.At the same time, we will want to see how we can get increased
:05:25. > :05:26.access to other markets, including the United States,
:05:27. > :05:29.but perhaps even more crucially how we can work with countries
:05:30. > :05:31.like the United States to open up the global economy
:05:32. > :05:32.in things like services, which will matter
:05:33. > :05:36.But your belief is that no value will be lost?
:05:37. > :05:39.Well, I hope that no value will be lost.
:05:40. > :05:46.And of course it makes no sense to have an assumption
:05:47. > :05:48.that you will be at one end of the spectrum
:05:49. > :05:51.rather than the other, so what we're aiming for is an open,
:05:52. > :05:53.liberal, comprehensive agreement with the European Union,
:05:54. > :05:56.which is in both our interests to have -
:05:57. > :05:58.both for European producers as well as British producers.
:05:59. > :06:01.And at the same time to have a good agreement with the United States
:06:02. > :06:06.and the reason for that is the global economy is sluggish.
:06:07. > :06:09.Global trade is growing at only 1.3% at the present time,
:06:10. > :06:12.we must get that up, because we've got to see a more
:06:13. > :06:16.open trading environment or our exporters will suffer.
:06:17. > :06:22.Trade is abstract, it is complicated, and I know
:06:23. > :06:24.that you accuse us, the media, of obsessing over chicken,
:06:25. > :06:27.but the reason we talk about chicken is it is tangible,
:06:28. > :06:29.people actually understand that as an issue.
:06:30. > :06:32.So is it true that we would change our regulations, our food standards,
:06:33. > :06:36.We've no intentions of reducing standards, as we said
:06:37. > :06:39.on a number of occasions, we think the British standards
:06:40. > :06:43.So you would then rule out chlorine-washed chicken?
:06:44. > :06:48.Well, there is no health issue with that, the European Union has
:06:49. > :07:01.The issue lies around some of the secondary issues of animal welfare,
:07:02. > :07:05.and it is perfectly reasonable for people to raise that, but it will
:07:06. > :07:10.come much further down the road. We will be looking at those issues much
:07:11. > :07:13.further down the road. But this is something people can understand,
:07:14. > :07:17.will you say it is fine, we don't need the regulation that the EU
:07:18. > :07:19.currently has, we will be prepared to accept whatever the chicken is
:07:20. > :07:24.washed in because we believe it is the right way to go, it makes food
:07:25. > :07:27.cheaper and it is the right deal with the US? We will want to make
:07:28. > :07:33.sure that scientific advice ensures proper protection for British
:07:34. > :07:37.consumers, because dropping our standards... Well, it doesn't, the
:07:38. > :07:40.EU has a preventative strategy, so it doesn't believe that
:07:41. > :07:45.chlorine-washed chicken is the right thing to have in the EU. Will I
:07:46. > :07:50.change under Liam Fox's trade deal? I can rule out that we will be
:07:51. > :07:54.dropping our standards on consumer protection or environmental
:07:55. > :07:57.protection or on animal welfare, these are reasonable things for
:07:58. > :08:01.people to look at, but in terms of where we will be on specifics by the
:08:02. > :08:04.time we finish a free-trade agreement which could be two or
:08:05. > :08:08.three years by the time it is concluded, depending on the rest of
:08:09. > :08:14.our relationship with the EU, it is too early say, but as a general
:08:15. > :08:17.principle we are not going to be the low regulation alternative that some
:08:18. > :08:24.people have suggested. Chicken is just one of a list, and we could
:08:25. > :08:29.also be looking at GM crops - will we be accepting GM crops, hormone
:08:30. > :08:33.fed beef? You are asking me the same question in a different way. These
:08:34. > :08:36.are elements that we will look at further down, these are elements in
:08:37. > :08:40.the agricultural section of an agreement. But we could be in a
:08:41. > :08:48.process that will now accept GM crops or hormone fed beef. We will
:08:49. > :08:51.want to look at what science tells us, what is the best protection for
:08:52. > :08:55.our consumers and the environment, and we will look at that across
:08:56. > :09:00.government. We are not going to jump to conclusions right now, because
:09:01. > :09:04.that would be an inappropriate way to carry out a negotiation. The US
:09:05. > :09:10.wants us to stop subsidising Rolls-Royce engines made in Derby,
:09:11. > :09:14.will we do that? It is a negotiation, and we want to see what
:09:15. > :09:18.we can get from the Americans, they will want to get things from us. We
:09:19. > :09:22.will not be giving away things that are detrimental to UK producers, our
:09:23. > :09:27.economy or consumers, why would we do that? The whole idea of Brexit,
:09:28. > :09:31.the line that we were fed was taking back control - now we are in a
:09:32. > :09:38.position where you cannot rule out that we might have chlorine-washed
:09:39. > :09:43.chicken, GM crops, hormone fed beef, why are we in a position where we
:09:44. > :09:46.seem to be going along with whatever a superpower does, whatever
:09:47. > :09:50.principles or standards or lower standards America is suggesting we
:09:51. > :09:54.might have to accept? That is the question people want to know, if we
:09:55. > :09:58.are taking back control. You are suggesting we have to stick with
:09:59. > :10:02.whatever the European Union tells us in terms of legacy. We will make the
:10:03. > :10:08.right decisions for the UK, we will decide for the UK what is best, not
:10:09. > :10:13.what is best for the US, for the European Union, what is best for the
:10:14. > :10:17.UK, and all of those areas... And the US model may be better than EU
:10:18. > :10:20.regulations. The British model will be the best model for Britain.
:10:21. > :10:24.Back now to the political storm here in Washington itself,
:10:25. > :10:25.where the White House is continuing its relentless
:10:26. > :10:28.Twitter pounding of the Attorney General, Jeff Sessions.
:10:29. > :10:30.Last week, the President said he wished he'd never have appointed
:10:31. > :10:33.Mr Sessions if he'd known that he'd recuse himself from
:10:34. > :10:36.And this morning at 6am, the social-media assault continued.
:10:37. > :10:39.All this as Donald Trump struggled to try and get one of his most
:10:40. > :10:40.important pieces of domestic legislation,
:10:41. > :10:50.Mark Urban has been watching the events of the day.
:10:51. > :10:56.The president of United States... Despite a packed legislative agenda
:10:57. > :10:59.and multiple international challenges, the stand-off between
:11:00. > :11:04.the president and those investigating him continues. Today,
:11:05. > :11:09.he fuelled doubts about the future of his own principal law officer. I
:11:10. > :11:15.am disappointed in the Attorney General. He should not have recused
:11:16. > :11:18.himself - almost immediately after he took office. And if he was going
:11:19. > :11:22.to recused themselves, he should have told me prior to taking office,
:11:23. > :11:28.and I would have picked somebody else. So I think that is a bad
:11:29. > :11:32.thing, not for the president, but for the presidency. I think it is
:11:33. > :11:37.unfair to the presidency. And that is the way I feel. The President at
:11:38. > :11:41.least one of his early-morning tweet storms, covering a variety of
:11:42. > :11:47.subjects, and attacking his own Attorney General, saying he has
:11:48. > :11:51.taken a very weak position on Hillary Clinton crimes, where are
:11:52. > :11:55.the leakers? It followed a tweet yesterday where he asked
:11:56. > :11:59.rhetorically, why aren't the committees and investigators and of
:12:00. > :12:02.course our beleaguered Attorney General looking into crooked
:12:03. > :12:06.Hillary's crimes and Russia relations? This is just outright
:12:07. > :12:10.bullying of Jeff Sessions at this point, we have seen it for several
:12:11. > :12:13.days running, and the president almost appearing to want to force
:12:14. > :12:17.him to quit, to resign, rather than be forced into another awkward
:12:18. > :12:21.position of demanding his resignation or sending him his
:12:22. > :12:26.walking papers. That touched a nerve with many Republicans on The hill,
:12:27. > :12:29.where Jeff Sessions served for 20 years as a senator along side men
:12:30. > :12:35.like Lindsey Graham, a persistent Republican trump critic who
:12:36. > :12:45.responded to the latest tweets with his own sewing...
:12:46. > :12:52.So is the Republican caucus fraying? Well, the House Majority Leader was
:12:53. > :12:56.today still backing his president. It is up to the president to decide
:12:57. > :13:00.on his personnel decisions and any fallout from that, if he has
:13:01. > :13:04.concerns about anyone in the administration, I am sure he will
:13:05. > :13:08.talk with them directly. Speaker Ryan, like many on the hill, wants
:13:09. > :13:14.to try and maintain momentum on the platform he was elected on, with the
:13:15. > :13:19.repeal and replacement of President Obama's health-care plan ranking
:13:20. > :13:24.high on that agenda. Today, a senator vote so narrow that John
:13:25. > :13:32.McCain had to come in from his sick bed carried that forward, delivering
:13:33. > :13:36.a fillip for the president. I hope we can continue to depend on each
:13:37. > :13:42.other, to learn how to trust each other again, and by so doing better,
:13:43. > :13:44.save the people who elected us. Stop listening to the bombastic
:13:45. > :13:55.loudmouths on the radio and television and the internet. To hell
:13:56. > :14:00.with them! They don't want anything done for the public good. Our
:14:01. > :14:06.incapacity is their livelihood. Let's trust each other. Let's return
:14:07. > :14:09.to regular order. The motion to proceed on health care has just
:14:10. > :14:14.passed... But the legislative game of pass the parcel continues between
:14:15. > :14:19.two Republican-controlled chamber is hooked on the rhetoric of repealing
:14:20. > :14:23.Obamacare but scared of the consequences of depriving millions
:14:24. > :14:28.of their care. This is not the end of the road, it may be a near-term
:14:29. > :14:32.win for Trump today, but there are significant differences, this is one
:14:33. > :14:35.sixth of the US economy, tens of millions of people poised to lose
:14:36. > :14:39.their health care under any form of this bill, and this is proving
:14:40. > :14:43.deeply unpopular - this bill only had the support of around 20% of the
:14:44. > :14:51.American people, whether or not the Republicans have the calculus right
:14:52. > :14:53.today, a lot of people are questioning. That battle will call
:14:54. > :14:57.soon for summer's congressional recess, but the rush of probe will
:14:58. > :14:59.go one, and tonight the new communications director at the White
:15:00. > :15:02.House said the president will soon come to a decision about the future
:15:03. > :15:06.of his Attorney General, Jeff Sessions.
:15:07. > :15:08.Well, earlier I spoke to one of the few political experts
:15:09. > :15:10.who predicted Donald Trump's victory in last year's election,
:15:11. > :15:13.Professor Allan Lichtman of the American University
:15:14. > :15:22.He got the last nine election is correct and previously stood for the
:15:23. > :15:23.Democrats. Nine months later, he's predicting
:15:24. > :15:26.the end of the Trump presidency and has written a book
:15:27. > :15:27.arguing his position, I began by asking him how he reached
:15:28. > :15:32.both his predictions. My prediction of a Donald Trump
:15:33. > :15:35.victory was based upon a scientific method, studying all American
:15:36. > :15:39.elections going back to 1860. My prediction of a Donald Trump
:15:40. > :15:43.impeachment, of course, could not be based on a mathematical
:15:44. > :15:46.model, because there haven't been enough examples
:15:47. > :15:51.of impeachment in US history. But my prediction of a Donald Trump
:15:52. > :15:53.impeachment, in my book, The Case For Impeachment,
:15:54. > :15:57.was based on a deep study of the history of impeachments,
:15:58. > :16:01.the basis for impeachments, Donald Trump's record
:16:02. > :16:05.as a businessman, and Donald Trump's record during the first two or three
:16:06. > :16:11.months of his administration. That was enough to point me
:16:12. > :16:13.towards what seemed to be an inevitable end to the presidency
:16:14. > :16:16.in the first term. And are you suggesting that
:16:17. > :16:19.impeachment is imminent? Let's not forget that
:16:20. > :16:27.Bill Clinton wasn't impeached until well into the fifth year
:16:28. > :16:34.of his presidency. Richard Nixon didn't resign
:16:35. > :16:36.until more than five and a half So I wouldn't say impeachment
:16:37. > :16:42.is right around the corner, but I do think it's going to come,
:16:43. > :16:47.and when it will come will be when Republicans come to realise
:16:48. > :16:50.that this President is a liability The Lichtman rule of politics
:16:51. > :16:59.is that the first requisite for any incumbent officeholder is personal
:17:00. > :17:01.survival - not loyalty Impeachment, though,
:17:02. > :17:07.is not a thing - it is a vote, Impeachment is a vote by a majority
:17:08. > :17:15.- not a supermajority - of the US House of Representatives,
:17:16. > :17:17.and, of course, Republicans But it would only take about two
:17:18. > :17:26.dozen Republicans to defect from Donald Trump to get a majority
:17:27. > :17:28.vote on impeachment, that's only about 10%
:17:29. > :17:33.of Republicans in the House. So is there a loyalty
:17:34. > :17:36.still from the Republican Party I think his party
:17:37. > :17:42.stands on a knife edge. On the one hand, they desperately
:17:43. > :17:45.want to support their president, and they don't want to see
:17:46. > :17:47.an ugly impeachment process. On the other hand, they realise that
:17:48. > :17:50.a president whose approval rating is in the 36-40% range
:17:51. > :17:56.is a liability to their party and could be a liability
:17:57. > :18:01.to their own personal re-election. I don't think Republicans
:18:02. > :18:05.are at impeachment yet, but it wouldn't take all that much
:18:06. > :18:11.to push them over the line. If Jeff Sessions is removed or goes,
:18:12. > :18:20.do you think that will trigger No, I don't think the firing
:18:21. > :18:25.of Jeff Sessions or the pushing of Jeff Sessions out by itself
:18:26. > :18:28.would be enough for the party, the Republicans to move
:18:29. > :18:29.towards impeachment. What might move them
:18:30. > :18:36.towards impeachment would be that if the firing or resignation
:18:37. > :18:38.of Jeff Sessions was a prelude to the firing of the special
:18:39. > :18:41.counsel, Robert Mueller. That could push Republicans over
:18:42. > :18:43.the line, although I'm not even So we are getting back to,
:18:44. > :18:47.essentially, the Russia scandal Is your sense that impeachment
:18:48. > :18:54.would come from treason? I think we are treading close
:18:55. > :18:57.to possible treason. Russia attacked the United States -
:18:58. > :19:01.it wasn't a military attack, but it was an attack nonetheless,
:19:02. > :19:09.not only through hacking of Democratic e-mails
:19:10. > :19:11.but through the use of Russian state-controleld media and through
:19:12. > :19:14.the use of trolls and bots And if any of Trump's team
:19:15. > :19:18.was involved in colluding with the Russians in that attack,
:19:19. > :19:22.that arguably is treason. If Trump himself knew about it,
:19:23. > :19:26.even if he didn't participate, that's another crime called
:19:27. > :19:31.misprision of treason, the failure to report treason,
:19:32. > :19:34.and if Trump himself was involved, I believe a strong case
:19:35. > :19:36.could be made for treason. And treason is a very serious charge
:19:37. > :19:41.- no sitting high public official of the United States has ever been
:19:42. > :19:46.charged with treason in our history. You write in the book about Trump's
:19:47. > :19:49.vulnerabilities - what do you see I wrote in The Case For Impeachment
:19:50. > :19:56.that a Russian sword of Damocles is hanging over this administration,
:19:57. > :19:59.it's hanging on a very That meeting with Donald Trump
:20:00. > :20:04.Junior, Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort with
:20:05. > :20:08.a multiplicity of Russian actors is, in my mind, pretty powerful
:20:09. > :20:12.circumstantial proof of collusion. The purpose of the meeting
:20:13. > :20:15.was to get from the Russian government dirt on Hillary Clinton,
:20:16. > :20:22.their opponent. That alone, the willingness
:20:23. > :20:24.the eagerness to take that meeting, is certainly strong circumstantial
:20:25. > :20:30.But people listening to this will be possibly saying,
:20:31. > :20:33."There is a man who is clearly a Democrat, who is creating,
:20:34. > :20:37.if you like, rumour for political spite."
:20:38. > :20:45.Nonsense - I have been predicting elections since 1980,
:20:46. > :20:47.and I have predicted about as many Republican victories
:20:48. > :20:52.If I was just, you know, a flag for the Democratic Party,
:20:53. > :20:58.In fact, I've lost all my Democratic friends because I predicted
:20:59. > :21:01.Donald Trump's victory - I even got a note from him
:21:02. > :21:05.acknowledging that prediction, saying, "Good call, Professor."
:21:06. > :21:08.In addition, there have been plenty of presidents with whom I have
:21:09. > :21:10.disagreed with their policies, but I've never before
:21:11. > :21:19.predicted a president was going to get impeached.
:21:20. > :21:25.I'm joined now by the Republican strategist Chris Neiweem.
:21:26. > :21:33.Just before we came on air we should tell viewers the US house of
:21:34. > :21:39.representatives had overwhelmingly backed new sanctions against Russia,
:21:40. > :21:43.419-3. The question now is well Donald Trump have to go a long with
:21:44. > :21:49.the overwhelming vote for stronger sanctions or will he resist it? It's
:21:50. > :21:53.always difficult to predict what President Trump does, his behaviour
:21:54. > :21:59.and his actions are always, they come directly from him and sometimes
:22:00. > :22:03.he disagrees with his Republican party, he came to power in a very
:22:04. > :22:08.diverse way. It will restrict some of his capabilities especially in
:22:09. > :22:13.dealing with Russia. I think he will think it over but we could see
:22:14. > :22:18.resistance based on his past actions. Looking at what happened
:22:19. > :22:22.today, the health care, not a bell, a bill about a bill which was
:22:23. > :22:27.essentially about appealing Obamacare, it passed by a whisker.
:22:28. > :22:32.That after ruling out poor John McCain who has just undergone brain
:22:33. > :22:38.surgery, this is not a man who looks in control at the moment. I think
:22:39. > :22:43.that would be correct, it's a thin margin and we expected that. The
:22:44. > :22:46.health care legislation affects every state different, the United
:22:47. > :22:51.States sent by design was supposed to be more deliberate. I win is a
:22:52. > :22:57.win so if they can get over the threshold and get it it's all that
:22:58. > :23:00.matters. When I heard from the Independent Senator Angus King this
:23:01. > :23:03.morning he said let me give you a brief synopsis of what we understand
:23:04. > :23:08.the health care bill this afternoon and he paused and that was it.
:23:09. > :23:13.Nobody understood what they were even voting on. That is a tragic
:23:14. > :23:19.position for a new president to be in six months in. It's definitely a
:23:20. > :23:23.very interesting political dynamic. Also remember the United States
:23:24. > :23:27.Senate when you look at procedures and boats, voting to proceed to the
:23:28. > :23:33.vote, we need to see the final vote on the text. I think it's going to
:23:34. > :23:38.be close but ultimately this is why lawmaking is hard. He is calling on
:23:39. > :23:43.the loyalty of the party right now at the same time he is trying to
:23:44. > :23:47.fire his own Attorney General, and man who's he appointed just six
:23:48. > :23:51.months ago, one of his earliest and most loyal followers who gave up the
:23:52. > :23:55.good Senate position to be there. How do we understand what is going
:23:56. > :23:59.on in that dynamic and what other Republicans should make of it?
:24:00. > :24:05.Trying to guess the behaviour of President Trump is very difficult.
:24:06. > :24:09.Don't guess or predict that then, tell me how people should behave in
:24:10. > :24:14.terms of their loyalty within the party? Everyone needs to think with
:24:15. > :24:18.their priorities and what they think should happen and their own
:24:19. > :24:21.integrity but this president does have a business negotiation
:24:22. > :24:27.background, he is high standards and wants to see things a certain way.
:24:28. > :24:30.He was being cautious and if he had nothing to hide let those
:24:31. > :24:34.investigations go on and fall where they fall, I think it was peculiar
:24:35. > :24:38.but that is where we are right now and we'll have to see where it plays
:24:39. > :24:44.out and if he retains the Attorney General. At the moment it seems like
:24:45. > :24:47.he will. There must be people like you, Republicans and critically
:24:48. > :24:51.people in the Senate and the house who are asking themselves in all
:24:52. > :24:57.faith how much longer can we support a president whose actions we might
:24:58. > :25:04.not even understand let alone support. If Jeff Sessions is fired
:25:05. > :25:09.or encouraged to go is that tipping point? It's an interesting case
:25:10. > :25:12.study in American politics and democracy because this president
:25:13. > :25:16.went to the people and that is where he got his mandate and that is who
:25:17. > :25:20.elected him. Before the election he was beating up Republicans and
:25:21. > :25:24.Democrats with both hands and won. It comes down to if the people
:25:25. > :25:28.continue to support him and if you will continue to have a working
:25:29. > :25:34.relationship to get the agenda through. I have never seen this
:25:35. > :25:41.political dynamic, it's very unique and makes for interesting analysis
:25:42. > :25:43.at least we can say that. So when a distinguished professor like Allan
:25:44. > :25:52.Lichtman who has called the last nine presidential wins says that he
:25:53. > :25:57.imagines the impeachment of Donald Trump not imminently, not September,
:25:58. > :26:00.but down the line, you have to listen to that presumably? I think
:26:01. > :26:04.you need to listen to it and look at it but with everyone in the universe
:26:05. > :26:08.looking for something on Russian collusion we'll find out whether it
:26:09. > :26:16.is collusion delusion or substantial and that talk about if there is
:26:17. > :26:20.something there. The government has to get things done legislatively.
:26:21. > :26:24.Chris Neiweem, thank you for coming in. Good to be with you.
:26:25. > :26:26.Let's just pause the discussion about Donald Trump here
:26:27. > :26:28.in the United States for just a moment
:26:29. > :26:30.and take a look at American policy towards the fight
:26:31. > :26:33.Pepfar is the multibillion-dollar US fund which
:26:34. > :26:35.has saved thousands, if not millions, of lives
:26:36. > :26:39.But doctors are warning that they face a difficult choice.
:26:40. > :26:41.American policy now prohibits funding of such schemes
:26:42. > :26:43.if they might have anything to do with abortion.
:26:44. > :26:53.It's become known as the "global gag" rule, as Karen Allen reports.
:26:54. > :26:57.A little over 20 years since the dawn of democracy,
:26:58. > :27:02.South Africa projects the image of a country on the move.
:27:03. > :27:06.But it has the largest number of people in the world
:27:07. > :27:10.living with HIV AIDS - 7 million of them.
:27:11. > :27:13.Yet the disease is no longer a death sentence
:27:14. > :27:15.that it was for previous generations, thanks in part
:27:16. > :27:20.to millions of dollars of US government aid.
:27:21. > :27:23.You and I slept without condoms so all your exes are pretty much
:27:24. > :27:27.One of the great success stories of how that US money
:27:28. > :27:33.What is the point of this clinic if you can't help me?
:27:34. > :27:38.But if the storyline strays into reproductive
:27:39. > :27:41.health or abortion issues, the producers have to look
:27:42. > :27:46.It's all about complying with tight US funding rules and those rules
:27:47. > :28:00.With the stroke of a pen President Trump has enacted what's
:28:01. > :28:07.It means that millions of dollars of US money for HIV is potentially
:28:08. > :28:12.at risk if it's linked in any way to abortion.
:28:13. > :28:14.HIV prevalence in South Africa is high.
:28:15. > :28:16.There is a lot of work that goes towards it.
:28:17. > :28:21.And this is work that we want to continue happening.
:28:22. > :28:23.So I think this is where the main problem is,
:28:24. > :28:26.that we are going to have to choose one, you know?
:28:27. > :28:29.Are we going to choose to keep fighting HIV in the country,
:28:30. > :28:32.or are we going to choose to give women the rights that they have
:28:33. > :28:38.Unlike many other countries in Africa, abortion
:28:39. > :28:44.But with high levels of stigma almost half of all terminations
:28:45. > :28:53.There is anecdotal evidence that the pills used to induce
:28:54. > :28:56.an abortion are stolen from state hospitals by members of staff then
:28:57. > :29:01.With the introduction of the US rules, there's a fear
:29:02. > :29:04.about a contraction of services here, forcing more women to seek
:29:05. > :29:13.Here in Johannesburg you don't have to be a detective to discover
:29:14. > :29:18.where to purchase abortion drugs on the black market.
:29:19. > :29:22.We've taken our hidden cameras, with an actress posing as a client,
:29:23. > :29:37.Watch the character in the dark jacket, he's the dealer.
:29:38. > :29:48.He tries to steer her into a shop to hand over the pills.
:29:49. > :29:53.It then emerges that the man sitting down is in fact his accomplice.
:29:54. > :29:56.They just want to make the sale so he slips the drug
:29:57. > :30:06.from up his sleeve and then in minutes the pair are gone.
:30:07. > :30:09.The actress hands us the packet of five pills,
:30:10. > :30:11.which she was instructed to take all at once.
:30:12. > :30:19.We took the drugs to an accredited abortion clinic.
:30:20. > :30:22.These are the pills that we picked up on the street, 500 Rand, ?30.
:30:23. > :30:29.Yes they are the right drugs but the dosage, no, it's not.
:30:30. > :30:38.We give clients four pills and this being five is an overdose.
:30:39. > :30:41.Campaigners worry that with the shadow cast over funding
:30:42. > :30:45.for all areas of health, including family planning,
:30:46. > :30:49.more unwanted pregnancies and more terminations are inevitable.
:30:50. > :30:51.Botched abortions are one of the biggest causes
:30:52. > :30:56.The new global gag rule is only likely to make that worse.
:30:57. > :30:59.And for HIV AIDS, which still claims millions of lives each
:31:00. > :31:06.year, there could also be unintended consequences.
:31:07. > :31:10.Even though I tested HIV-positive, I don't think it's a barrier for me
:31:11. > :31:17.This woman, an aspiring young businesswoman,
:31:18. > :31:20.owns her survival in part to the billions of US tax dollars
:31:21. > :31:28.The US contributes two thirds of all bilateral funding worldwide.
:31:29. > :31:31.I come draw blood every six months and collect my medication
:31:32. > :31:37.But the money to keep her healthy now has conditions attached.
:31:38. > :31:43.It cannot be traced to abortion services in any shape or form.
:31:44. > :31:46.I don't see how people can sit in Washington and think
:31:47. > :31:48.they can then influence me on that micro level.
:31:49. > :31:52.I am restricted in terms of giving you health information
:31:53. > :31:55.that you have a right to for you to make informed choice.
:31:56. > :31:56.So it interferes with the doctor-patient
:31:57. > :31:59.relationship in a very, very, very negative manner.
:32:00. > :32:02.The problem with singling out abortion is that modern day health
:32:03. > :32:04.care is all integrated, whether it's children's
:32:05. > :32:12.Activists warn they could all be affected by this rule simply
:32:13. > :32:20.With a children's clinic here and reproductive health and HIV
:32:21. > :32:24.services down the corridor, this one-stop shop is the gold
:32:25. > :32:28.standard that international health agencies are trying to promote.
:32:29. > :32:31.But there is a fear that the global gag rule could impose guilt
:32:32. > :32:34.by association for services that have got nothing
:32:35. > :32:41.Thousands of miles from here President Trump's signed into law
:32:42. > :32:46.rules which some view as an assault on South Africa's sovereignty.
:32:47. > :32:48.But turning the country's back on the biggest donor
:32:49. > :32:58.The taxpayers in the United States have a right.
:32:59. > :33:00.And the health care workers in South Africa and the women
:33:01. > :33:04.in South Africa have a right to also attain their highest level of care
:33:05. > :33:13.Many believe the US is overstepping the mark, threatening to damage
:33:14. > :33:16.sweeping gains made to improving the health of millions
:33:17. > :33:30.Self-sufficiency still beyond the horizons of many African states.
:33:31. > :33:35.I'm joined now by two seasoned Trump watchers -
:33:36. > :33:37.Susan Glasser from the news website Politico
:33:38. > :33:42.and James Kirchick from the Brookings Institute.
:33:43. > :33:50.Very nice to have both of you. If I could start with you, we have heard
:33:51. > :33:55.a lot this week about Russia, we have had Jared Kushner two days
:33:56. > :33:58.running in those hearings, we will be hearing from Paul Manafort the
:33:59. > :34:03.former communications director, tomorrow. Allan Lichtman was telling
:34:04. > :34:08.me that Trump could be the first president found guilty of treason. I
:34:09. > :34:12.think that is a really great charge to be throwing around. Treason is a
:34:13. > :34:16.very specific definition in the United States, you have to be aiding
:34:17. > :34:20.and abetting an enemy of the United States with whom we are at war.
:34:21. > :34:24.Russia is an enemy of this country, but we're not at war with them, so I
:34:25. > :34:27.think the rush to that sort of conclusion, the use that language is
:34:28. > :34:32.really ill tempered and inaccurate. I not trying to defend Donald Trump,
:34:33. > :34:37.his position on Russia and what the campaign did. I thought what we saw
:34:38. > :34:41.during the campaign, Trump speaking of his admiration for Vladimir
:34:42. > :34:44.Putin, calling on the Russians to hack Hillary Clinton, it was
:34:45. > :34:49.abominable, unpatriotic, un-American, but it does not rise to
:34:50. > :34:54.the level of treason. Susan Glasser, over to you, do you think his
:34:55. > :35:00.critics are getting carried away on this one? Smoke with no fire? Well,
:35:01. > :35:04.look, first of all, we are at the beginning stage of multiple
:35:05. > :35:08.different investigations, including, most seriously, the FBI and special
:35:09. > :35:11.counsel investigation headed by Bob Muller. Jamie makes an important
:35:12. > :35:16.point, to throw around words like that is probably not constructive
:35:17. > :35:21.for opponents of President Trump. The impeachment word has been used
:35:22. > :35:26.almost since noon on January the 20th, when Donald Trump became
:35:27. > :35:30.president, and the bottom line is, even if that were to be the outcome,
:35:31. > :35:33.we're talking about years of investigations and a very difficult
:35:34. > :35:37.political process on Capitol Hill before anything of that kind would
:35:38. > :35:41.happen. You get the sense from talking to lots of people who are
:35:42. > :35:48.understandably confused, they think, when will impeachment happen? Next
:35:49. > :35:53.month or something? Democrats are confused as to why Republicans are
:35:54. > :35:57.not more outraged by any sense of collusion or dealings with Russia,
:35:58. > :36:01.let's say, watched you make of that? As someone who has been very
:36:02. > :36:05.critical of the Republicans and the stance they have taken over the past
:36:06. > :36:10.year and a hard, really, Russia, I have to say that they are partly
:36:11. > :36:14.right to be a little sceptical of the outrage being expressed by
:36:15. > :36:17.Democrats. If you look at the record of the Obama administration on
:36:18. > :36:20.Russia over the last eight years, starting with the recent policy that
:36:21. > :36:26.began only six months after Russia invaded Georgia, we had a procession
:36:27. > :36:31.of moves that were basically feckless in dealing with Russia. In
:36:32. > :36:35.2012, Barack Obama mocked Mitt Romney, the presidential candidate,
:36:36. > :36:38.forcing Russia was our number one geopolitical threat, and now lots of
:36:39. > :36:43.Republicans are looking at Democrats, who laughed at them four
:36:44. > :36:46.years ago is for being these retrograde cold warriors, lecturing
:36:47. > :36:49.conservatives and Republicans that they are all pawns of Vladimir
:36:50. > :36:57.Putin. A lot of conservatives are very sceptical. Would you agree
:36:58. > :37:01.that, actually, the ill ease started with a Obama, and all the
:37:02. > :37:07.concessions, or all the weakness that Goodin saw in him? I think you
:37:08. > :37:10.have to go back much farther than that, the bottom line is that George
:37:11. > :37:16.W Bush first encountered Vladimir Putin as president back in 2001 and
:37:17. > :37:22.said he was a man he could do business with. There has been a long
:37:23. > :37:28.arc of four presidents, because Bill Clinton also had a brief opening up
:37:29. > :37:31.with Vladimir Putin. It is fair to say that both Democratic and
:37:32. > :37:35.Republican presidents have come in believing that they could work more
:37:36. > :37:37.closely with Russia, that we had national interests that would
:37:38. > :37:42.converge on key issues around the world, and all of them have found
:37:43. > :37:47.themselves disillusioned. Donald Trump is a huge outlier in that he
:37:48. > :37:52.is the only one of them who has come in fawning over Vladimir Putin's
:37:53. > :37:56.anti-democratic tendencies, fawning over Putin as a leader, and
:37:57. > :38:01.basically saying that he admires him and wants to work with him. Inside
:38:02. > :38:05.United States, in a partisan sense, it is both Democrats and Republicans
:38:06. > :38:08.who have an enormous amount of hypocrisy to go around, both have
:38:09. > :38:12.switched their positions based on nothing to do with Russia but having
:38:13. > :38:15.to do with the partisan politics of Russia changing in the United
:38:16. > :38:21.States, so that does make it, I think, very congregated in trying to
:38:22. > :38:25.sort through, but both parties have enough hypocrisy to go around on
:38:26. > :38:30.this issue. We're running out of time, so big picture, Jamie, six
:38:31. > :38:34.months into the Trump presidency, if someone said to you, how is it going
:38:35. > :38:39.now, I talk to members of the administration who say, ignore the
:38:40. > :38:44.tweets, the bombastic side of Trump, he is getting on with the job and it
:38:45. > :38:48.is working - is that how it seems from inside Washington? In
:38:49. > :38:53.Washington, things can seem worse than they do out in the country.
:38:54. > :38:59.That said, Donald Trump has not really accomplished any major pieces
:39:00. > :39:02.of legislation so far. He is attacking his own Attorney General,
:39:03. > :39:05.there are rumours now that his Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson,
:39:06. > :39:10.might be resigning some time before the end of the year. So it is not
:39:11. > :39:13.going very good for him. I am not going to say impeachment is on the
:39:14. > :39:16.horizon, that is being hysterical, but it is not going well for him.
:39:17. > :39:18.Thank you both very much indeed. After Sean Spicer's departure
:39:19. > :39:22.from the White House last week, we leave you with President Trump's
:39:23. > :39:24.new director of communication, the former Goldman Sachs investment
:39:25. > :39:26.manager Anthony Scaramucchi, The President's fake news media
:39:27. > :39:35.enemies are already trying to make None more so than the
:39:36. > :39:38.Daily Show's Trevor Noah, who may just have worked out
:39:39. > :39:40.his secret sauce. If you thought Donald Trump
:39:41. > :39:42.was inimitable, take a look. A spell of wetter and windy weather
:39:43. > :40:06.coming our way tomorrow, but there will be some brighter
:40:07. > :40:09.parts to pick out, and if you're in eastern areas, it's
:40:10. > :40:12.the morning, the best