0:00:06 > 0:00:11The scene this evening outside the Catalonian parliament in Barcelona.
0:00:11 > 0:00:16Supporters of independence brace themselves for battle.
0:00:16 > 0:00:17Without quite knowing when, where or what form
0:00:17 > 0:00:21the battle will take.
0:00:26 > 0:00:34TRANSLATION:At this moment, Mr Puigdemont, you are putting a
0:00:34 > 0:00:39generation in jeopardy. Tomorrow rests on your shoulders.
0:00:39 > 0:00:41Tomorrow come two crunch votes, the Spanish will decide
0:00:41 > 0:00:43whether to take control of Catalonia, Catalonia will decide
0:00:43 > 0:00:45whether to declare itself independent.
0:00:45 > 0:00:47The country stands on the brink of a showdown.
0:00:47 > 0:00:54We'll ask if there's a way back from constitutional conflict.
0:00:54 > 0:00:56Something's up in Saudi Arabia.
0:00:56 > 0:01:00Is it really possible that we'll be holidaying there,
0:01:00 > 0:01:04on the Red Sea coast by the end of the next decade?
0:01:04 > 0:01:08The Saudi crown prince has outlined big plans to beat back the forces
0:01:08 > 0:01:13of conservatism and to take the kingdom into a new era of normality.
0:01:13 > 0:01:21We'll ask if the Saudi prince's plan is ever likely to succeed.
0:01:21 > 0:01:23And are our universities a bastion of left wing remoaners,
0:01:23 > 0:01:25and if so, does it matter?
0:01:25 > 0:01:27The Daily Mail's Stephen Glover takes it up
0:01:27 > 0:01:30with a professor of philosophy.
0:01:36 > 0:01:39Hello. After a day of some confusion in Catalonia, Spain this evening
0:01:39 > 0:01:44stands on the brink of a serious clash between region and nation.
0:01:44 > 0:01:48After some dithering, the Catalan president
0:01:48 > 0:01:51Carles Puigdemont decided not to call an election.
0:01:51 > 0:01:53Instead, he said the Catalan parliament will decide
0:01:53 > 0:01:55on whether independence should be declared.
0:01:55 > 0:01:59The vote is expected to happen tomorrow.
0:01:59 > 0:02:03Meanwhile in Madrid, the Spanish senate will also vote
0:02:03 > 0:02:05on whether to invoke Article 155, allowing the national government
0:02:05 > 0:02:10to take control of Catalonia.
0:02:10 > 0:02:13A test of strength may follow, who will the Police
0:02:13 > 0:02:14in Catalonia obey?
0:02:14 > 0:02:18Can a government run a region against its will?
0:02:18 > 0:02:20And will the pro-independence politicians in Catalonia remain
0:02:20 > 0:02:22united in their determination?
0:02:22 > 0:02:24Well, it's a volatile situation, and our diplomatic editor Mark Urban
0:02:24 > 0:02:31is outside the parliament.
0:02:31 > 0:02:39Is that a City in turmoil this evening?It's not, and in fact, the
0:02:39 > 0:02:42demonstrations we saw earlier in the day from militant separatists not
0:02:42 > 0:02:47really more than a few thousand, even those have dissipated now and
0:02:47 > 0:02:52the streets are largely quiet. But everyone you talk to hear is full of
0:02:52 > 0:02:56a sense of anticipation about tomorrow. Now, if there are people
0:02:56 > 0:03:01that don't believe in quitting Spain, its anticipation tinged with
0:03:01 > 0:03:09trepidation. The separatists, it is tinged with possibility. People in
0:03:09 > 0:03:15the centre ground of politics here, a parallel with Brexit, they believe
0:03:15 > 0:03:18if the parliament vote tomorrow is one of separation, somehow things
0:03:18 > 0:03:25will be sorted out, and life will not change in a major way. But
0:03:25 > 0:03:28still, all sorts of tensions on the two flanks of this question.Can
0:03:28 > 0:03:36either side back down now, that is the crucial question this evening?
0:03:36 > 0:03:41You are right. It is absolutely a crucial question, given that both of
0:03:41 > 0:03:45committed to certain courses of action tomorrow. It seems the
0:03:45 > 0:03:50Spanish Prime Minister has talked about using the nuclear option,
0:03:50 > 0:03:54so-called article 155 of the Constitution. Some people are
0:03:54 > 0:03:57saying, there is a certain amount of wriggle room. But he seemed to be
0:03:57 > 0:04:01committed to going forward on that route, regardless of what is said or
0:04:01 > 0:04:08decided in Catalonia. For their part, the Catalans are also
0:04:08 > 0:04:10committed to this vote on independence, and most people think,
0:04:10 > 0:04:14even though there are splits within the President's party, they will
0:04:14 > 0:04:19boat to go that way. How can it be resolved? It is really, really
0:04:19 > 0:04:23unclear whether it can be, hence the strong sense of people almost
0:04:23 > 0:04:29trembling with the possibilities of what tomorrow will bring. Hence
0:04:29 > 0:04:31also, a meandering around politically dumb by the President
0:04:31 > 0:04:34throughout the day in Parliament.
0:04:38 > 0:04:43Nothing happened quite as expected today in the Catalan parliament.
0:04:43 > 0:04:50Elections were going to be called, then they want, and as one timed
0:04:50 > 0:04:53event or another slipped and vanished, the press pack were
0:04:53 > 0:04:58suitably laid-back. Instead, he promised a parliamentary vote on
0:04:58 > 0:05:04independence, separatist deputies were jubilant.
0:05:04 > 0:05:08TRANSLATION:I was prepared to call these elections on the sole
0:05:08 > 0:05:12condition that we were given guarantees that they would be held
0:05:12 > 0:05:18in an absolutely normal manner. But there are no such guarantees that
0:05:18 > 0:05:24would justify calling these regional elections today.
0:05:24 > 0:05:29Pro independence deputies who thought he'd lost his nerve were
0:05:29 > 0:05:35jubilant. The president has said he won't call elections, and he'll give
0:05:35 > 0:05:40the whole matter to Parliament to decide. And these people are happy,
0:05:40 > 0:05:44because they favour independence, and they think parliament will, too.
0:05:44 > 0:05:49But if he leaves it to a parliamentary vote, having a slim
0:05:49 > 0:05:55majority of assent within his own party, will there be majority for
0:05:55 > 0:06:00independence? TRANSLATION:It's come to the moment
0:06:00 > 0:06:05of truth, and we feel the nerves appropriate to such a man. We think
0:06:05 > 0:06:11tomorrow, in the parliament, the favour for independence will end up
0:06:11 > 0:06:14declaring independence. As this played out, the government
0:06:14 > 0:06:18in Madrid mulls the position of emergency rule on Catalonia,
0:06:18 > 0:06:23something that could also happen to one. Each side apparently determined
0:06:23 > 0:06:29the other should make the bigger error.
0:06:29 > 0:06:33TRANSLATION:In order to come back within the law, where you are, where
0:06:33 > 0:06:39we are, where the government is, and since Saturday, nothing relevant has
0:06:39 > 0:06:45happened. But we have heard nothing but noise.
0:06:45 > 0:06:48Tonight, the parliament is debating a motion for independence with
0:06:48 > 0:06:51predictions, if anything is still predictable here, that it will come
0:06:51 > 0:07:00tomorrow morning at 10:30. Outside, separatists scenting
0:07:00 > 0:07:02victory in joy a carnival atmosphere.
0:07:02 > 0:07:08I think the real battles darts from the declaration of Independence. And
0:07:08 > 0:07:15for that, we need the support of our president. Which we are not sure we
0:07:15 > 0:07:19have. What is the Catalonian government
0:07:19 > 0:07:23doing quiz on what is the Spanish are doing? It has been tense. The
0:07:23 > 0:07:26people here are ready to speak for what they passionately believe in,
0:07:26 > 0:07:32which I think its independence. Mark Urban reporting from Barcelona.
0:07:32 > 0:07:34I'm joined from Barcelona by the pro-independence
0:07:34 > 0:07:36activist Anna Arque Solsona, and via Skype from Madrid
0:07:36 > 0:07:42by Alfredo Pastor, he's the former Spanish Economic Minister.
0:07:42 > 0:07:47Good evening to you, Alfredo Pastor. What is the best way out of this
0:07:47 > 0:07:53situation as we stand here now? Easiest one seems to be for the
0:07:53 > 0:07:58president of of the Catalan government to call an election. That
0:07:58 > 0:08:03is the easiest one.Right. Now talk me through what happens if he
0:08:03 > 0:08:11doesn't do that. Talk me through what happens if they do vote through
0:08:11 > 0:08:18this declaration of Independence. The motion can be carried, it may be
0:08:18 > 0:08:31carried or it may not. A majority is a very weak one. It would be for
0:08:31 > 0:08:38five independence for it to be declared. No one is going to
0:08:38 > 0:08:44recognise. Then, of course, article 155 would be set in motion.Right.
0:08:44 > 0:08:52Does Carles Puigdemont, does he get arrested and sent to jail?I have no
0:08:52 > 0:08:58idea, but I wouldn't be surprised. You wouldn't be surprised if he was
0:08:58 > 0:09:04sent to jail?I wouldn't be surprised, no. Justice is when slow
0:09:04 > 0:09:07in Spain, but sooner or later, the clearing independence like that is
0:09:07 > 0:09:14not something... It is not allowed. Do you think the Spanish government
0:09:14 > 0:09:21can keep hold of it as the federal government can hold Catalonia by
0:09:21 > 0:09:24force? Do you think that is a very good idea? If Catalonia doesn't want
0:09:24 > 0:09:30to be part of Spain, you can hold it there, and you can force the police,
0:09:30 > 0:09:34sent in the Army, keep it and occupy it?Catalonia does not have one
0:09:34 > 0:09:39single voice. There is a large number in Catalonia who would prefer
0:09:39 > 0:09:46not to be in Spain. I'm not sure that all of them have weighed up the
0:09:46 > 0:09:49costs and benefits of that carefully. But the fact that many of
0:09:49 > 0:09:52them, many more than the Spanish government thought, are in favour of
0:09:52 > 0:10:01independence. But they are by no means a majority. Even the
0:10:01 > 0:10:08government tried to hold even this large group of people by force, that
0:10:08 > 0:10:16cannot continue indefinitely.Let me go over to Anna Arque Solsona. You
0:10:16 > 0:10:21are in favour of independence, what is the right thing now, to hold an
0:10:21 > 0:10:24election in Catalonia? This is what the president of Catalonia pulled
0:10:24 > 0:10:30away from today. With the right thing to delay the election and
0:10:30 > 0:10:36withhold the crisis that is impending tomorrow?Well, I think
0:10:36 > 0:10:41that tomorrow is a perfect day to lift up the suspension of the
0:10:41 > 0:10:45declaration of Independence. That is the mandate of the people, that was
0:10:45 > 0:10:52the result of the referendum, to which 43% of the population voted,
0:10:52 > 0:10:57even though the violence that we suffered that day from the Spanish
0:10:57 > 0:11:04police against unarmed people, even though we do have a mandate, and
0:11:04 > 0:11:10that is in favour.Sorry to interrupt, but if you are so
0:11:10 > 0:11:14confident of this strong independence, then great, have an
0:11:14 > 0:11:21election. You will obviously have the independent forces win with a
0:11:21 > 0:11:24thumping majority, and you can go ahead because you have more
0:11:24 > 0:11:33legitimacy than that referendum. Well, but there's really no point
0:11:33 > 0:11:38for an election. We had elections, that's why we have an absolute
0:11:38 > 0:11:42majority of members of the parliament in favour of the
0:11:42 > 0:11:46independence, and that's why we've been able to pass through two laws.
0:11:46 > 0:11:51One of them, the referendum, the law for the referendum, for soft
0:11:51 > 0:11:55determination. We have achieved that because we already had elections,
0:11:55 > 0:11:59and we have already won the absolute majority. That's why we did the
0:11:59 > 0:12:05referendum. And now, people have spoken, the same way as Brexit
0:12:05 > 0:12:11referendum people spoke.OK...That is democracy, that is what it is all
0:12:11 > 0:12:16about.When Carles Puigdemont is sent to jail on Monday because the
0:12:16 > 0:12:19Spanish novelties don't agree with your assessment, when that happens,
0:12:19 > 0:12:24who runs Catalonia, and what is going to have an? What do you
0:12:24 > 0:12:30actually expect to happen on Monday if you declare independence and
0:12:30 > 0:12:39banish pass article 155? -- the Spanish pass Article 100 55.It is
0:12:39 > 0:12:42important to remember, in Spain at the moment, there are two people in
0:12:42 > 0:12:51Spain just to organise a peaceful demonstration. They do have two get
0:12:51 > 0:12:56to arrest President Puigdemont, and maybe it is not that easy, because
0:12:56 > 0:13:01he is the person of this country, elected democratically and legally.
0:13:01 > 0:13:07Who is good to run in case the Spanish state goes once again way
0:13:07 > 0:13:11beyond the democratic framework that we have given, all of us, in the
0:13:11 > 0:13:19European Union? Nothing, another person will be in charge of...Will
0:13:19 > 0:13:26there be violence?Article 155 is not going to be able to be
0:13:26 > 0:13:34reapplied...Is...You need the people to obey.We have little
0:13:34 > 0:13:40time... Sorry to interrupt. We have little time, do you think there will
0:13:40 > 0:13:46be violence if Spain tries to take control of Catalonia, or partial
0:13:46 > 0:13:51control Catalonia?Not from the Catalan side. All the violence that
0:13:51 > 0:14:02we have experienced has been from the Spanish state.Thank you...
0:14:02 > 0:14:06Sorry, I had to cut you off. I want to put that point to Alfredo Pastor,
0:14:06 > 0:14:11do you think there will be violence? If the Spanish state, if it sees it
0:14:11 > 0:14:16can't control Catalonia peacefully, will it use tanks on Monday?No,
0:14:16 > 0:14:19there will be no tanks. There will first be demonstration by peaceful
0:14:19 > 0:14:23people, who will probably start breaking things after a while, then
0:14:23 > 0:14:27the police will have to come and things are about. That kind of
0:14:27 > 0:14:32street violence will happen, but there will be no tanks. It will be
0:14:32 > 0:14:42an pleasant, the problem in the long run, the wounds will take time to
0:14:42 > 0:14:47heal.We need to leave it there. We don't have any more time. But we
0:14:47 > 0:14:49will be watching obviously everything that happens over the
0:14:49 > 0:14:56next few days. Thank you, both, very much indeed.
0:14:56 > 0:14:58A boring old conference for investors held in the Saudi
0:14:58 > 0:15:00capital Riyadh would not normally move the news dial here.
0:15:00 > 0:15:02But a bland-sounding gathering this week,
0:15:02 > 0:15:04the Future Investment Initiative, has really put on show,
0:15:04 > 0:15:07a Saudi ambition for a momentous change of direction.
0:15:07 > 0:15:09A transformation of the world's strangest, and least liberal
0:15:09 > 0:15:12countries and one of our most problematic allies could be
0:15:12 > 0:15:17transformative of the region.
0:15:17 > 0:15:18A tie-up with Richard Branson announced this week,
0:15:18 > 0:15:21and his company called Virgin, is but one sign of the culture
0:15:21 > 0:15:25change apparently underway.
0:15:25 > 0:15:28The Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, heir to the throne,
0:15:28 > 0:15:30looks like one of those Gorbachev types that come along
0:15:30 > 0:15:33from time to time.
0:15:33 > 0:15:35An insider who thinks the regime in which he operates
0:15:35 > 0:15:45is dysfunctional, and needs to be reformed.
0:15:52 > 0:15:53One concrete ambition is an investment of half
0:15:53 > 0:15:56of $1 trillion in a new futuristic city on the red Sea
0:15:56 > 0:15:57coast called NEOM.
0:15:57 > 0:16:00A place where pioneers and thinkers and doers can exchange ideas
0:16:00 > 0:16:01and get things done.
0:16:01 > 0:16:04The promotional video shows just how different they intend it to be
0:16:04 > 0:16:05from the stultifying, repressed images we
0:16:05 > 0:16:10normally see from Saudi.
0:16:10 > 0:16:15TRANSLATION:Stunning nature, mountains, plains, valleys, coast,
0:16:15 > 0:16:18coral reefs, islands, mountains that are covered
0:16:18 > 0:16:20with snow in winter, mild weather in summer,
0:16:20 > 0:16:2910 degrees less than the other gulf cities and capitals.
0:16:29 > 0:16:33The political will is strong.
0:16:33 > 0:16:34The popular will and desire is strong.
0:16:34 > 0:16:37All the elements of success exist to create something great
0:16:37 > 0:16:38within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
0:16:38 > 0:16:40That's the Crown Prince bin Salman.
0:16:40 > 0:16:41He's only 32.
0:16:41 > 0:16:43And the recently appointed heir to the Saudi throne,
0:16:43 > 0:16:45replacing his cousin in the role.
0:16:45 > 0:16:49He's already impressed President Trump.
0:16:49 > 0:16:53With energy that flows from the sun and wind.
0:16:53 > 0:16:55One objective is economic, preparing the country
0:16:55 > 0:16:58for when the world weans itself off oil.
0:16:58 > 0:17:02It also needs jobs to occupy its youthful population.
0:17:02 > 0:17:07More than two thirds of the population is under 30.
0:17:07 > 0:17:10But another objective is cultural, the country has become a beacon
0:17:10 > 0:17:14of ultraconservative Sunni thinking.
0:17:14 > 0:17:18The Crown Prince made an astonishing admission to the Guardian this week.
0:17:18 > 0:17:21What happened in the region in the last 30 years
0:17:21 > 0:17:25is not the Middle East, after the Iranian Revolution in 1979
0:17:25 > 0:17:31people wanted to copy this model in different countries.
0:17:31 > 0:17:32One of them is Saudi Arabia.
0:17:32 > 0:17:35We didn't know how to deal with it and the problems
0:17:35 > 0:17:36spread all over the world.
0:17:36 > 0:17:38Now is the time to get rid of it.
0:17:38 > 0:17:41Change has already been evident.
0:17:41 > 0:17:47Women being given licence to drive.
0:17:47 > 0:17:51An obvious step to us, but a huge change in Saudi Arabia.
0:17:51 > 0:17:54The vicious war in Yemen might be seen as just one sign
0:17:54 > 0:18:00that the country is not close to a humane presence in the region.
0:18:00 > 0:18:02And then, of course, there is the problem
0:18:02 > 0:18:03of resistance within.
0:18:03 > 0:18:06Will a Crown Prince beat the forces whose status and power has
0:18:06 > 0:18:11derived from the old order?
0:18:11 > 0:18:13Saudi Arabia as a new Dubai?
0:18:13 > 0:18:16Well, Dubai has its issues, but nothing compared to those of Saudi.
0:18:16 > 0:18:17So is reform for real?
0:18:17 > 0:18:19I'm joined by the Saudi journalist Abeer Mishkhas,
0:18:19 > 0:18:22who returned just this week from Riyadh, and by Nesrine Malik
0:18:22 > 0:18:24another journalist who herself used to live in Saudi Arabia.
0:18:24 > 0:18:27But let's start with the BBC's Frank Gardner who knows
0:18:27 > 0:18:29the country extremely well.
0:18:29 > 0:18:30Let's start
0:18:36 > 0:18:42Frank, tell us about this Crown Prince.It's impossible to overstate
0:18:42 > 0:18:48the changes this man is making. By Saudi standards it is moving at a
0:18:48 > 0:18:53lightning pace. These are changes nobody could imagine possible
0:18:53 > 0:18:56happening so quickly. The man who runs the economy, the defence, the
0:18:56 > 0:19:01Royal Court, just about everything, has turned around and told the
0:19:01 > 0:19:04people of Saudi we have been getting it wrong, it is time to stop
0:19:04 > 0:19:08extremism.And he has the support of the King, presumably, because he was
0:19:08 > 0:19:15promoted by him a few months back. He does. I met them both in 2013 in
0:19:15 > 0:19:20the king 's palace. I didn't even know who he was. I said what you do
0:19:20 > 0:19:24for a living, he said he was a lawyer. At the time he was
0:19:24 > 0:19:29relatively obscure. But he has risen to prominence. He has made some
0:19:29 > 0:19:33mistakes. He started this catastrophic war with the Yemen.
0:19:33 > 0:19:36Nobody is winning it. The Yemenis are losing it by the thousands. Is
0:19:36 > 0:19:43also involved in a spat with Qatar. But this is a bold step that many
0:19:43 > 0:19:45people of Saudi belief should be done. They need to find an
0:19:45 > 0:19:50alternative to oil and they need to join the rest of the 21st-century.
0:19:50 > 0:19:56Let me turn to my two guests. Do you think this is for real? Often people
0:19:56 > 0:20:00talk about reform but it isn't there.I think it is for real. There
0:20:00 > 0:20:06is a huge wave of feminism in the country. Something nobody talked
0:20:06 > 0:20:11about before. Talked about how we had a problem with... With the
0:20:11 > 0:20:16religious establishment, with the ideology. And to say that we had all
0:20:16 > 0:20:23of that time, we wasted 30 years, we won't waste another 30 years, and we
0:20:23 > 0:20:26have to do something about it. I think this is something somebody was
0:20:26 > 0:20:33so happy to hear.Presumably you welcome this?Absolutely.Were other
0:20:33 > 0:20:38people talking about it?Yes, they well, at least the people I have
0:20:38 > 0:20:42seen and talked to, they are very optimistic. They are thinking about
0:20:42 > 0:20:48what is going to happen in the country.Do you feel this is real?
0:20:48 > 0:20:55One thing you could do is liberate it now, say we will take people out
0:20:55 > 0:21:01of jail...I believe it's real. One issue is that in the short term a
0:21:01 > 0:21:05shifting of tectonic plates, is a completely revolutionary, is
0:21:05 > 0:21:09something we did not expect to see in our lifetime? Absolutely yes. My
0:21:09 > 0:21:13concern is in the application and the suggestive mistakes that he has
0:21:13 > 0:21:20made, which you have mentioned, and in the past few weeks, since he has
0:21:20 > 0:21:22started to confront the religious establishment, people have been
0:21:22 > 0:21:27thrown in jail, banned from travelling, and every high-profile
0:21:27 > 0:21:29youth religious scholar and TV presenter was banned from
0:21:29 > 0:21:36travelling. That was just a day. My concern is, is the application going
0:21:36 > 0:21:43to be as smooth, and is the support for him confined to Cosmopolitan,
0:21:43 > 0:21:47elites, but in the hinterlands which one of the senior royals referred
0:21:47 > 0:21:50to, the people in the small towns that haven't really, you know, come
0:21:50 > 0:22:01with The Times, are they going to be supportive?You support the guy
0:22:01 > 0:22:06obviously. Why is there still such repression today? You could start
0:22:06 > 0:22:08liberating more quickly for this programme, you don't have to
0:22:08 > 0:22:14envision 2030.It's very hard. You are talking about a country that has
0:22:14 > 0:22:20been kept behind everyone else for years and years. Now he is wanting
0:22:20 > 0:22:24all of these changes. You cannot imagine how much resistance there
0:22:24 > 0:22:29was for the driving of women. There still is. If you listen to people
0:22:29 > 0:22:32talking about it, people are still complaining, some people are not
0:22:32 > 0:22:36happy with what the crown prince is talking about. He has to fight all
0:22:36 > 0:22:41that. But he is supported by all of the young people of the country, who
0:22:41 > 0:22:44have been travelling abroad, who have studied abroad, you want to
0:22:44 > 0:22:47find new jobs, who want to stop travelling to other countries to
0:22:47 > 0:22:53feel free. They want everything in the country.Should people worry
0:22:53 > 0:22:57that the Crown Prince may mean it, but the forces of conservatism are
0:22:57 > 0:23:03just too strong postmark assassination, you could imagine a
0:23:03 > 0:23:13number of things, couldn't you? -- are just too strong?I do worry. The
0:23:13 > 0:23:16current generation has been on the Internet, on social media for the
0:23:16 > 0:23:23past 15 years. It is a very different bedrock to people who have
0:23:23 > 0:23:28tried reform before him. I'm not concerned about the tailwind behind
0:23:28 > 0:23:33him. I don't think there will be that much resistance from the
0:23:33 > 0:23:38establishment. I'm concerned about the lessons that are learnt from the
0:23:38 > 0:23:45last 30 years, as he refers to it, I am afraid that those lessons will
0:23:45 > 0:23:48not be learnt, in that there was complicity on the half of the Royal
0:23:48 > 0:23:55family to inject extremism and radical language into the public
0:23:55 > 0:23:58address of the country.Religious language?Yes. This wasn't something
0:23:58 > 0:24:04that was imposed by some disembodied rich establishment, it was with the
0:24:04 > 0:24:09full sanction and complicity of the Royal family. To deny that was
0:24:09 > 0:24:12something that they did and they need to undo will be one of the big
0:24:12 > 0:24:20tests.We are not talking about democracy in 2030, are we, or is
0:24:20 > 0:24:27that the ultimate vision?No. Let's not get starry eyed. He is a
0:24:27 > 0:24:31Democrat. Lots of people are getting locked up for things they have said
0:24:31 > 0:24:35on social media. It's not a Western-style democracy, his aim, he
0:24:35 > 0:24:41is aiming to liberate the economic power of Saudi Arabia. To find jobs
0:24:41 > 0:24:45for these millions of people pouring out of schools and universities. The
0:24:45 > 0:24:49risk is that there will be dark forces gathering, people who don't
0:24:49 > 0:24:56like what he is doing, and they will remember what happened to the 1960s
0:24:56 > 0:25:00moderniser. The Conservatives opposed women's education,
0:25:00 > 0:25:04television, he overruled them, ultimately he was assassinated in
0:25:04 > 0:25:081975. God willing that isn't going to happen.Yemen is a blot on the
0:25:08 > 0:25:13Saudi copybook of a serious kind. Should we trust a guy who is behind
0:25:13 > 0:25:19that to be the reformer?You cannot get everything you want from the
0:25:19 > 0:25:25same person. You said Gorbachev. Gorbachev did help in that way. At
0:25:25 > 0:25:29the time it was not seem that way by those in the soviet Union. You
0:25:29 > 0:25:37always have to see everything.It's going to be a mixed bag. OK. An
0:25:37 > 0:25:39interesting one to watch. Thank you all very much.
0:25:39 > 0:25:41The government means business when it comes to Brexit,
0:25:41 > 0:25:45even if we are not quite clear what exact line of business that is.
0:25:45 > 0:25:48Yet, it's real businesses that will be on the front line of dealing
0:25:48 > 0:25:49with any consequences.
0:25:49 > 0:25:52In as far as a community can be said to have a view on Brexit,
0:25:52 > 0:25:55the business one has been against it, or in favour
0:25:55 > 0:25:58of the softer variants of it, with a decent transitional period.
0:25:58 > 0:26:02And above all, there's no enthusiasm for a no-deal outcome.
0:26:02 > 0:26:04In fact, real concern at it.
0:26:04 > 0:26:12But while they might want it, businesses have to be ready for it.
0:26:12 > 0:26:16-- But while they might not want it, businesses have to be ready for it.
0:26:16 > 0:26:18Helen Thomas has been finding out what that entails.
0:26:18 > 0:26:21Before any big adventure, it's wise to plan ahead.
0:26:21 > 0:26:25Avoid getting left out in the cold, go equipped for unexpected hazards.
0:26:25 > 0:26:32Preparation can be the key to a successful trip.
0:26:32 > 0:26:35The government can't quite get its story straight on whether
0:26:35 > 0:26:38no deal is a negotiating tactic, or a real possibility.
0:26:38 > 0:26:41We are seeking to get a deal.
0:26:41 > 0:26:47That is by far and away the best option.
0:26:47 > 0:26:50The maintenance of the option of no deal is for both the negotiating
0:26:50 > 0:26:51reasons and sensible security.
0:26:51 > 0:26:53But with 17 months to go, businesses are
0:26:53 > 0:26:56starting to get ready.
0:26:56 > 0:26:58I think firms are preparing for the possibility of no deal,
0:26:58 > 0:27:03because it's a logical possibility.
0:27:03 > 0:27:06I think they are still optimistic that we will strike a deal,
0:27:06 > 0:27:09because it's in everyone's interest to do that.
0:27:09 > 0:27:12Particularly the larger firms, I'm hearing more and more that they have
0:27:12 > 0:27:13prepared contingency plans.
0:27:13 > 0:27:15Some of them have pressed a few buttons.
0:27:15 > 0:27:20But what a number of them say to me is, it's not one button,
0:27:20 > 0:27:22a button every few weeks as they adjust to new
0:27:22 > 0:27:25assessment of the risk.
0:27:25 > 0:27:29This isn't really about whether Brexit is good or bad for Britain,
0:27:29 > 0:27:34it's about being ready for anything, being prepared for a no deal Brexit.
0:27:34 > 0:27:36Broadly, that means leaving the EU in March, 2019,
0:27:36 > 0:27:38without the kind of comprehensive free trade agreement
0:27:38 > 0:27:42the government says it wants.
0:27:42 > 0:27:47But even that isn't clear-cut.
0:27:47 > 0:27:50People happy for us to leave without a deal concede we might need
0:27:50 > 0:27:54some basic agreements to keep planes flying, say, or to stop a meltdown
0:27:54 > 0:28:00in financial contracts.
0:28:00 > 0:28:05In finance, no deal means no access to European markets.
0:28:05 > 0:28:08That risks cutting off an industry that accounts
0:28:08 > 0:28:11for 12% of UK tax receipts, but regulators have forced banks to
0:28:11 > 0:28:13get on with their no deal planning.
0:28:13 > 0:28:15What they've done is they've looked at the various
0:28:15 > 0:28:17locations across Europe, decided which one is the best one
0:28:17 > 0:28:20for them, so maybe a place where they have existing operations,
0:28:20 > 0:28:22maybe that there are competitors there.
0:28:22 > 0:28:27They have started to acquire a premises, so they've
0:28:27 > 0:28:28got their offices, they've started thinking
0:28:28 > 0:28:31about the people they need to move to those locations.
0:28:31 > 0:28:35But crucially, they've started to get the authorisations they need
0:28:35 > 0:28:41to enable them to do business in April, 2019.
0:28:41 > 0:28:45Ingredients for Eisai's cancer and epilepsy drugs crisscross
0:28:45 > 0:28:47several borders before being made in the UK for sale worldwide.
0:28:47 > 0:28:50The rules say drugs for sale in Europe must be
0:28:50 > 0:28:53tested in an EU country.
0:28:53 > 0:28:55So with no deal, Eisai, a Japanese company,
0:28:55 > 0:28:58needs a new facility.
0:28:58 > 0:29:01We can't afford to wait any longer.
0:29:01 > 0:29:07We're having to go out for tenders, we're having to look to move that
0:29:07 > 0:29:09part of the testing operation, not the manufacturing,
0:29:09 > 0:29:12but the testing to an EU member state, and put things in place.
0:29:12 > 0:29:14Ensuring no disruption to drug supply in 2019
0:29:14 > 0:29:17means spending money now.
0:29:17 > 0:29:20We're talking many millions of pounds to do this.
0:29:20 > 0:29:26This is something which will have no gain.
0:29:26 > 0:29:28Literally, it will mean we are doing in April, 2019,
0:29:28 > 0:29:31what we would have been doing, shall we say, in February, 2019,
0:29:31 > 0:29:33so there is no gain.
0:29:33 > 0:29:40Money that could have been spent for developing new medicines,
0:29:40 > 0:29:42bringing new cures to patients.
0:29:42 > 0:29:45Other industries are planning, too.
0:29:45 > 0:29:47One car maker told us their manufacturing setup might not
0:29:47 > 0:29:51work in a no deal outcome.
0:29:51 > 0:29:53It could need more parts on site, and new storage facilities.
0:29:53 > 0:29:55It might not be terribly complicated, but rather
0:29:55 > 0:30:02like the negotiations, it all takes time and money.
0:30:02 > 0:30:05There is another source of uncertainty.
0:30:05 > 0:30:08A transition period is meant to make life easier for businesses,
0:30:08 > 0:30:10giving them time to adapt, but will it be agreed early
0:30:10 > 0:30:15enough to be useful?
0:30:15 > 0:30:18And even then, will it be certain enough for businesses to hang
0:30:18 > 0:30:28investment or hiring decisions on?
0:30:36 > 0:30:38The longer it takes, we will have lost time,
0:30:38 > 0:30:40jobs and investment in the UK.
0:30:40 > 0:30:41A drip-drip, if you like.
0:30:41 > 0:30:44Our view is that the end of the year is a key moment,
0:30:44 > 0:30:47that if a transition agreement on status quo terms could be secured
0:30:47 > 0:30:50by then, we will keep jobs and investment in the UK.
0:30:50 > 0:30:53But the real prize here is the shape of the final deal.
0:30:53 > 0:30:55They don't want an extension of the cliff edge.
0:30:55 > 0:30:57So the next thing that would have to happen is,
0:30:57 > 0:31:00the first half of next year, all eyes on that final deal.
0:31:00 > 0:31:02This week, the Prime Minister suggested a transition agreement
0:31:02 > 0:31:04could only come late next year.
0:31:04 > 0:31:06A bit of government backtracking later, and don't panic,
0:31:06 > 0:31:07it might land much only.
0:31:07 > 0:31:12I wonder, is there anything here that can unscramble mixed messages?
0:31:13 > 0:31:16Helen Thomas there.
0:31:16 > 0:31:19We did ask the department for exiting the EU and the department
0:31:19 > 0:31:21for international trade to join us on the programme but
0:31:21 > 0:31:25nobody was available.
0:31:25 > 0:31:27Our political editor Nick Watt is here, though,
0:31:27 > 0:31:29Nick, you have some more details tonight on how the government
0:31:29 > 0:31:33is getting on with Brexit?
0:31:33 > 0:31:37The government confirmed that the committee stage will begin on the
0:31:37 > 0:31:4214th of November, the joke doing the rounds with the backbenches is the
0:31:42 > 0:31:45government will put out a slew of amendments to its own Bill to avoid
0:31:45 > 0:31:51a Tory rebellion. Interesting, I was talking to somebody close to the
0:31:51 > 0:31:55whips, the feeling is they need to reach out to Dominic grieve, the
0:31:55 > 0:31:58former Attorney General, who is one of the main potential rebels. It
0:31:58 > 0:32:04looks like we may have a committee of both houses to look at the
0:32:04 > 0:32:08so-called Henry VIII clauses. He is worried the changes could be made
0:32:08 > 0:32:14without the government having a say. It will be a committee.A traffic
0:32:14 > 0:32:18light system. Another idea he has is that it would bring back the
0:32:18 > 0:32:21European Charter of fundamental rights, that looks more difficult.
0:32:21 > 0:32:26So, friendly messages there, but the word from the land of the whips is,
0:32:26 > 0:32:30we're being nice to you, but we don't have too, because we don't
0:32:30 > 0:32:35believe the rebels have the numbers. The rebels are saying they mean it,
0:32:35 > 0:32:38they are serious.
0:32:38 > 0:32:40Universities are feeling a bit picked upon this week.
0:32:40 > 0:32:43One Tory whip appeared to be inquiring about pro-Brexit
0:32:43 > 0:32:44sympathies among the lecturers.
0:32:44 > 0:32:47He denied it was an attack on free thinking at colleges; but then
0:32:47 > 0:32:50the Daily Mail today went in hard on the idea that our universities
0:32:50 > 0:32:52are a bastion of remainer resistance to the popular will.
0:32:52 > 0:32:54A kind of fifth column.
0:32:54 > 0:32:55But would it matter anyway?
0:32:55 > 0:32:57Do we need our academics to be politically representative
0:32:57 > 0:33:00of a population at large?
0:33:00 > 0:33:02Possibly, you might say, if academics are unaware
0:33:02 > 0:33:05of their own biases.
0:33:05 > 0:33:07We'll argue about whether it matters, but first a little
0:33:07 > 0:33:11evidence on the subject, from our policy editor Chris Cook.
0:33:13 > 0:33:18It feels like a culture war is underway in Britain. The Daily Mail
0:33:18 > 0:33:22is clearly on one side, universities are on the other.
0:33:22 > 0:33:25You can see why the Mail is grumpy, it's a phenomenon observed around
0:33:25 > 0:33:29the world that, well, students like dissent,
0:33:29 > 0:33:33and more educated people tend to skew more liberal.
0:33:33 > 0:33:36You can see that in the referendum results.
0:33:36 > 0:33:4068% of graduates went for Remain, but people with the most GCSE level
0:33:40 > 0:33:48qualifications backed Leave by similar margins.
0:33:48 > 0:33:50There are a few threats to consider. First, socialisation.
0:33:50 > 0:33:53Students spent time with other students, whose views are
0:33:53 > 0:33:58to the left of the country at large. So are those of their lecturers.
0:33:58 > 0:34:01Here's a result of a poll from around the 2015 election, showing
0:34:01 > 0:34:04the relative support at that moment of the four biggest parties.
0:34:04 > 0:34:08And here's what things look like just for higher education staff.
0:34:08 > 0:34:12A lot more Labour and Lib Dem voters are working on campus.
0:34:12 > 0:34:19Second, universities are not as a homogenous as they once were.
0:34:19 > 0:34:2215% of academics are from elsewhere in Europe, 16% of
0:34:22 > 0:34:25research funding is from the EU, the very internationalist bodies.
0:34:25 > 0:34:27Third, the consensus in economics or Brexit
0:34:27 > 0:34:29is that it will leave us poorer.
0:34:29 > 0:34:31Now, the academics may be wrong, and consensus can be afflicted
0:34:31 > 0:34:35by groupthink and bias.
0:34:35 > 0:34:37But, by and large, academics will only teach things
0:34:37 > 0:34:45they genuinely believe to be true.
0:34:45 > 0:34:48Well, with me is Steven Glover, who wrote a column about this
0:34:48 > 0:34:50for the Mail today, and Professor Barry Smith
0:34:50 > 0:34:54who lectures in philosophy at the University of London.
0:34:54 > 0:34:59Welcome, both of you. What was your point today, Steven, the point of
0:34:59 > 0:35:05the headline, our Remainer universities, what was the fear
0:35:05 > 0:35:09underlying?I don't write the headlines, but the point was, there
0:35:09 > 0:35:16are a lot of Remainers teaching at our universities. And some of them
0:35:16 > 0:35:21are probably putting pressure on students to think...It is the
0:35:21 > 0:35:26pressure on the students?There are plenty of examples in today's Daily
0:35:26 > 0:35:36Mail, universities sending e-mails to students, exhortation is to
0:35:36 > 0:35:41students to vote in a certain way. And afterwards, other examples,
0:35:41 > 0:35:47which at the worst involve bullying. So I think it... It blew up because
0:35:47 > 0:35:55a Tory MP wandered naively into a new letter, that's how it blew up.
0:35:55 > 0:35:58But it is a matter of public interest that universities, which
0:35:58 > 0:36:05are very good in this country, they do tend to be very, very pro-remain.
0:36:05 > 0:36:11Is it right that the fesses should tell students how to vote? Is that
0:36:11 > 0:36:16good practice, or advising them how to vote?They should be putting the
0:36:16 > 0:36:22arguments before them. When we hear now from the Daily Mail that there
0:36:22 > 0:36:27is a worry about so many university professors being anti-Brexit, it
0:36:27 > 0:36:30would be irresponsible not to be, if they think they have arguments and
0:36:30 > 0:36:34evidence to suggest it might be a bad thing for this country.Is it
0:36:34 > 0:36:42not that there may be biases and prejudices of their own, which they
0:36:42 > 0:36:47are teaching students? You might lecture students and give them both
0:36:47 > 0:36:51sides of the argument, or teach them in a Broadway, but not profit
0:36:51 > 0:36:59arising to students.We will have two C. We have heard an act is ace
0:36:59 > 0:37:07and there is anti-Brexit bias. We have two wonder whether they are
0:37:07 > 0:37:11hearing inconvenient truths. When I hear people say, anti-Brexit bias, I
0:37:11 > 0:37:15don't hear a lot of bottle of the ordinance put forward in
0:37:15 > 0:37:18universities. I hear argument is to close down the discussion.The big
0:37:18 > 0:37:22picture is, though, you are worried because universities are more
0:37:22 > 0:37:25left-wing than the population at large. A lot of the copy in your
0:37:25 > 0:37:34column was about left-wing voting, rather than Remainers. If they are
0:37:34 > 0:37:38pointed in a competitive way, does it matter if they end up in quite a
0:37:38 > 0:37:42different place from the population who are less educated? Is that a
0:37:42 > 0:37:47problem?It is true that intellectuals probably, if you pick
0:37:47 > 0:37:56100, 70-80 will be on the left.This turns out to be true everywhere.
0:37:56 > 0:38:00Students go to university to be told, to be taught how to think.
0:38:00 > 0:38:07That's the point of university.They don't need a newspaper to be told
0:38:07 > 0:38:11what happens. But your newspaper goes further than that!The Daily
0:38:11 > 0:38:15Mail, lots of newspapers say different things, it is just a tiny
0:38:15 > 0:38:19part of the media.But the average professor, of course, has just one
0:38:19 > 0:38:26voice, and there are lots of other voices that affect students.Of
0:38:26 > 0:38:33course, we don't know. I don't think professors should be coerces and
0:38:33 > 0:38:39should tell students how to vote, or how they should think.Barry, I am
0:38:39 > 0:38:45interested in the issue of biases. Do you accent that group thinking,
0:38:45 > 0:38:49confirmation bias, where you look for information that supports your
0:38:49 > 0:38:56view. Do you think these afflict university teachers?They may do. We
0:38:56 > 0:39:01teach it, we talk about it, we expose it. Groupthink and the
0:39:01 > 0:39:04consequences of that, and how it might be set up are taught and
0:39:04 > 0:39:11discussed in psychology. I think we are aware of it some copies are, or
0:39:11 > 0:39:17even government parties. The thing we must be careful with is the idea
0:39:17 > 0:39:20that our younger people, students at university, are so impressionable,
0:39:20 > 0:39:24so easily led, that if a university professor has a view and expresses
0:39:24 > 0:39:29it, they take it on immediately.If you do accept that you have these
0:39:29 > 0:39:32biases, it is quite interesting to be told by a newspaper or a
0:39:32 > 0:39:40government minister what kind of prevailing views are. It may not be
0:39:40 > 0:39:44McCarthy, let's just be aware, these are the values you are starting
0:39:44 > 0:39:48with, and there may be confirmation biases.We need to ask that and look
0:39:48 > 0:39:53at it. But look, most of the Cabinet and most of the previous cabinet in
0:39:53 > 0:39:57the Conservative government were educated at universities. If they
0:39:57 > 0:40:04are so left wing, I can't see the effect of it seeping in. This may be
0:40:04 > 0:40:07interesting, because people talk about becoming more right wing and
0:40:07 > 0:40:12Conservative as you get older. This may be a phase they pass through.
0:40:12 > 0:40:17Are you proud of Britain's universities?Yes. Yes, I am.You
0:40:17 > 0:40:22wrote about them this morning as hysterical, patronising, elitist.
0:40:22 > 0:40:28You don't sound very proud.What I said was, the reaction was
0:40:28 > 0:40:39hysterical. He has been called Leninist, accused of censoring
0:40:39 > 0:40:41universities, it was a straightforward letter, completely
0:40:41 > 0:40:45open, not perhaps very intelligent. And the reaction...The official
0:40:45 > 0:40:51point is, you are proud of our universities.They're not perfect.
0:40:51 > 0:40:54But if you look at the University international league tables, Al
0:40:54 > 0:40:58universities are good.Thank you, both, very much.
0:40:58 > 0:40:59That's about it for this evening.
0:40:59 > 0:41:02But to leave you, Canadian artist Stan Douglas has spent much
0:41:02 > 0:41:04of his career exploring moments that, in his words,
0:41:04 > 0:41:05rupture the status quo.
0:41:05 > 0:41:11In his latest exhibition, on at the Victoria Miro gallery
0:41:11 > 0:41:13Douglas has re-created the London riots of 2011.
0:41:13 > 0:41:16He chose images from the news, flew a helicopter over the exact
0:41:16 > 0:41:18locations and spent four months digitally rendering the pictures.
0:41:18 > 0:41:20The resulting large-format images are incredibly detailed.
0:41:20 > 0:41:23The idea is to get the viewer to pause, and consider
0:41:23 > 0:41:25how the people, the police and objects are interacting.
0:41:25 > 0:41:35Take a look. Goodnight.