0:00:05 > 0:00:09The village of Tula Toli, in Rakhine Province in Mynamar.
0:00:09 > 0:00:12On August 30 this year, a massacre occurred there.
0:00:12 > 0:00:20We've pieced together what happened.
0:00:31 > 0:00:33It's just one example of the violence that has led
0:00:33 > 0:00:38to a huge exodus of Rohingya Muslims, out of Myanmar.
0:00:38 > 0:00:40The people of Tula Toli had seen neighbouring villages burn,
0:00:40 > 0:00:43but thought they were safe.
0:00:53 > 0:00:55It's been called a textbook case of ethnic cleansing.
0:00:55 > 0:00:58When you see the testimony, you might think it is
0:00:58 > 0:01:00rather more than that.
0:01:00 > 0:01:04Also tonight, the Brexit Secretary, David Davis,
0:01:04 > 0:01:07promises a Commons vote on the final deal.
0:01:07 > 0:01:12So what happens if the Government loses that vote?
0:01:12 > 0:01:25We're talking crisis for the Government and an exit with
0:01:25 > 0:01:31unless Tory rebels can challenge Theresa May in one key area.
0:01:31 > 0:01:32Hello.
0:01:32 > 0:01:35It would be nice to think that in the modern age ethnic cleansing
0:01:35 > 0:01:36and religious massacres no longer occur.
0:01:36 > 0:01:38After all, the world has shrunk.
0:01:38 > 0:01:40We all know what's going on these days.
0:01:40 > 0:01:43Despots have fewer secrets than they used to.
0:01:43 > 0:01:45They are surely shamed or scared by international law from kicking
0:01:45 > 0:01:48people out of their homes or standing by while
0:01:48 > 0:01:49they are murdered.
0:01:49 > 0:01:52It would also be nice to think that as democracy spreads, so does
0:01:52 > 0:01:53civility and the rule of law.
0:01:53 > 0:01:56And that's why events this year in Myanmar have been such a shock.
0:01:56 > 0:01:59Although the country has returned to a degree of democracy,
0:01:59 > 0:02:01since August, 615,000 people of the Rohingya Muslim minority have
0:02:01 > 0:02:08fled the country to Bangladesh.
0:02:08 > 0:02:11They come with shocking stories of the treatment meted out back home
0:02:11 > 0:02:15in Myanmar's Rakhine province.
0:02:15 > 0:02:17It's no wonder they have left.
0:02:17 > 0:02:20The plight of the Rohingya was highlighted by the Prime
0:02:20 > 0:02:24Minister, Theresa May, in her Mansion House speech tonight.
0:02:24 > 0:02:29This is a major humanitarian crisis, which looks like ethnic cleansing,
0:02:29 > 0:02:32and it is something for which the Burmese authorities
0:02:32 > 0:02:37and especially the military must take full responsibility.
0:02:37 > 0:02:39Well, in a moment, we'll see a deeply disturbing film
0:02:39 > 0:02:42from Gabriel Gatehouse on some of the testimony of the refugees,
0:02:42 > 0:02:46on the fate of one village in Rakhine.
0:02:46 > 0:02:48But before we do, let's just just get some background
0:02:48 > 0:02:49to the problems there.
0:02:49 > 0:02:52First the numbers:
0:02:52 > 0:02:55Myanmar is a country of 55 million people.
0:02:55 > 0:02:59Although ethnically divided, the Buddhist religion provides some
0:02:59 > 0:03:03form of unifying identity to the bulk of the population -
0:03:03 > 0:03:0688% or so.
0:03:06 > 0:03:08Muslims are a small minority.
0:03:08 > 0:03:11In 2015, there were about a million Rohingya Muslims, a mere 2%
0:03:11 > 0:03:15of the Mynamar population.
0:03:15 > 0:03:19But in Rakhine province itself - or Arakan as it is also known -
0:03:19 > 0:03:21if the Rohingya were all allowed back, they'd probably
0:03:21 > 0:03:24be the majority.
0:03:24 > 0:03:28The history of ethnic tension between Rakhine Buddhists
0:03:28 > 0:03:31and Rohingya Muslims goes back centuries,
0:03:31 > 0:03:33not improved, by the way,
0:03:33 > 0:03:38by British Colonial rule.
0:03:38 > 0:03:43Scenes as appalling as any refugee crisis I've ever witnessed.
0:03:43 > 0:03:44In the post-war era, with Myanmar independent,
0:03:44 > 0:03:46there have been sporadic outbreaks of trouble.
0:03:46 > 0:03:49Rohingyas have often aspired to secede from Myanmar,
0:03:49 > 0:03:53but separation is an idea that was greeted with virulent
0:03:53 > 0:03:56hostility by the country's numerous military rulers.
0:03:56 > 0:03:59They stripped the Rohingya of citizenship in 1982
0:03:59 > 0:04:02making them stateless.
0:04:02 > 0:04:05The latest trouble dates back to August 25.
0:04:05 > 0:04:10A Rohingya group - call them militants or insurgents -
0:04:10 > 0:04:12attacked police and army posts.
0:04:12 > 0:04:16The response has been harsh, creating the huge exodus
0:04:16 > 0:04:19that's occurred this year.
0:04:19 > 0:04:22We'll see Gabriel's film in a moment, but he's with me now.
0:04:22 > 0:04:27People will see a film that's extremely important. Just give us a
0:04:27 > 0:04:34little background, tell us about this one village.This massacre is a
0:04:34 > 0:04:37massacre of such horrifying proportions, such horrific brutality
0:04:37 > 0:04:41that it merits investigation in its own right. I've reported on Islamic
0:04:41 > 0:04:45State in Syria and Iraq, but none of that really comes close. This is by
0:04:45 > 0:04:49far the most disturbing story I've ever covered. We're talking about
0:04:49 > 0:04:53mass murder, mass rape. The killing of infants and of children. But it's
0:04:53 > 0:04:59not an isolated case. This is the kind of thing that has been going on
0:04:59 > 0:05:02throughout northern Rakhine State since the end of August and indeed
0:05:02 > 0:05:08continues in some places to go on to this day. We're talking about whole
0:05:08 > 0:05:11villages being burned, razed, ethnic cleansing in effect. This is
0:05:11 > 0:05:16violence that is perpetrated against a people who, in any case, have few
0:05:16 > 0:05:21of the rights, basic rights that human beings, normal human beings
0:05:21 > 0:05:24would expect, besides being denied citizenship, they're denied the
0:05:24 > 0:05:29right to vote. They're denied decent health care, decent education.
0:05:29 > 0:05:32They're even denied the right to travel freely inside their own
0:05:32 > 0:05:36country. This is violence that's perpetrated by a government that is
0:05:36 > 0:05:40led by somebody who's been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Now it's
0:05:40 > 0:05:45difficult to report from inside Myanmar, the Burmese government
0:05:45 > 0:05:48doesn't allow independent access to the affected areas. Certainly it
0:05:48 > 0:05:51would be impossible to get meaningful access to the village
0:05:51 > 0:05:56we're talking about. So we travelled to Bangladesh and collected
0:05:56 > 0:06:01testimony in the camps there, where the survivors of this massacre have
0:06:01 > 0:06:06sought refuge. Just to warn you again, our report contains extremely
0:06:06 > 0:06:09disturbing images, very disturbing testimony and graphic descriptions
0:06:09 > 0:06:16of sexual violence.
0:07:15 > 0:07:18These people have just crossed the border.
0:07:18 > 0:07:19They are in no-man's land.
0:07:19 > 0:07:23They have been driven from their homes in Myanmar,
0:07:23 > 0:07:28now they are waiting for permission to enter Bangladesh.
0:07:28 > 0:07:33The Rohingya are a people that neither country wants.
0:07:33 > 0:07:38What happened in your village?
0:07:40 > 0:07:44They just burned our houses.
0:07:44 > 0:07:47These are some of the survivors, they are hungry, they are sick,
0:07:47 > 0:07:48and they are scared.
0:07:48 > 0:07:52Across the river, there is a deliberate campaign
0:07:52 > 0:07:55of terror going on.
0:07:55 > 0:07:59A campaign from which no-one is safe.
0:07:59 > 0:08:05We don't know how many people have been killed,
0:08:05 > 0:08:11but we do have some idea of how many have been burnt and chased out
0:08:11 > 0:08:14of their homes, these are just the tiny fraction of the hundreds
0:08:14 > 0:08:18and hundreds of thousands of people, who have fled.
0:08:18 > 0:08:24In our investigation, we are going to focus
0:08:24 > 0:08:26on the events of one day, of one massacre, in one village.
0:08:26 > 0:08:31Its name is Tula Toli.
0:08:31 > 0:08:35Since August, more than 600,000 people have sought refuge
0:08:35 > 0:08:39in the camps in Bangladesh.
0:08:39 > 0:08:43People who brought little with them, but the nightmarish memories
0:08:43 > 0:08:49of their experiences at the hands of the Burmese military.
0:08:49 > 0:08:53We have come here, to find survivors of the Tula Toli massacre.
0:08:53 > 0:08:58We have spoken to six of them, we have cross references
0:08:58 > 0:09:00their testimony with video evidence.
0:09:00 > 0:09:03Absolutely horrific pictures.
0:09:03 > 0:09:06With maps of the local area, as well as with interviews collected
0:09:06 > 0:09:09by human rights organisations.
0:09:09 > 0:09:13What emerges is a picture of systematic violence.
0:09:13 > 0:09:19Violence that has been described as a text book example
0:09:19 > 0:09:22of ethnic cleansing.
0:09:40 > 0:09:43Using a satellite photograph of the area, a Rohingya elder
0:09:43 > 0:09:47showed me how the massacre unfolded.
0:09:47 > 0:09:51The village of Tula Toli consists of a number of settlements
0:09:51 > 0:09:56surrounded on three sides by the meandering flow of a river.
0:09:56 > 0:09:58In previous days soldiers set fire to other villages
0:09:58 > 0:10:01on the opposite bank.
0:10:01 > 0:10:05That Wednesday morning, the 30th August, they crossed into Tula Toli.
0:10:05 > 0:10:09There was panic.
0:10:42 > 0:10:44Everyone mentions the river.
0:10:44 > 0:10:47With the soldiers advancing from the north-west,
0:10:47 > 0:10:50and a police post to the south, many of the villagers ran east,
0:10:50 > 0:10:52they ended up on the river bank.
0:10:52 > 0:10:58They were trapped.
0:11:46 > 0:11:49And yourself were on the other side of the river?
0:11:49 > 0:11:52This woman showed us where she and others swam
0:11:52 > 0:11:55across the river at a point downstream where it was
0:11:55 > 0:11:58narrow enough to cross.
0:11:58 > 0:12:02They used banana trees and plastic canisters as liferafts.
0:12:02 > 0:12:05Did you see this with your own eyes?
0:12:10 > 0:12:15From a hill on the opposite bank, they watched the horror unfold.
0:13:02 > 0:13:07The horrific scenes she witnessed, still give her nightmares.
0:13:16 > 0:13:22She watched the bodies of her neighbour's children wash
0:13:22 > 0:13:24up on the river bank, the scene was filmed
0:13:24 > 0:13:30by another villager.
0:13:32 > 0:13:35The children's names were Rashida, five years old,
0:13:35 > 0:13:42Kushida, three and Zahidia, who was 11 months.
0:13:52 > 0:13:55Anora Begum, her husband and her four children all managed
0:13:55 > 0:13:59to escape with their lives.
0:13:59 > 0:14:02Mohammed was not so fortunate.
0:14:02 > 0:14:04He and his youngest daughter survived but three of her
0:14:04 > 0:14:08sisters were killed, and so was their mother.
0:14:42 > 0:14:45The violence began five days before the massacre at Tula Toli,
0:14:45 > 0:14:50on the 25th August, when members of a Rohingya militant group
0:14:50 > 0:14:53attacked a number of police posts inside Myanmar, killing 12.
0:14:53 > 0:14:55In response, the Burmese military began what they called
0:14:55 > 0:15:02clearance operations.
0:15:02 > 0:15:10Boats filled with refugees have been coming ever since.
0:15:10 > 0:15:12It's two month since the terrible incidents that we have been looking
0:15:12 > 0:15:16at and these people are saying it is still going on.
0:15:20 > 0:15:23Some have accused the Burmese Government of using the attacks
0:15:23 > 0:15:26by the militants as a pretext for a vicious and indiscrimate
0:15:26 > 0:15:36crackdown against civilians.
0:15:42 > 0:15:44Bangladeshi authorities monitor what goes on on the other
0:15:44 > 0:15:46side of the border.
0:15:46 > 0:15:50And I have been told that from the beginning of August,
0:15:50 > 0:15:54so about three weeks before the violence started,
0:15:54 > 0:15:57they noticed an increase in military activity on the Myanmar side.
0:15:57 > 0:16:00Now, if that is true, that would suggest an element of preparation
0:16:00 > 0:16:02for the violence that followed.
0:16:02 > 0:16:06And this is the suggestion that we have heard corroborated
0:16:06 > 0:16:16by some of the witnesses we have spoken to as well.
0:16:17 > 0:16:19We were told an an incident that happened nearly two weeks before
0:16:19 > 0:16:21the massacre at Tula Toli.
0:16:21 > 0:16:23Also, before the attacks by the militant group known
0:16:23 > 0:16:26as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army.
0:16:26 > 0:16:36Which sparked the response by the Burmese military.
0:16:55 > 0:16:57Were they trying to recruitment people in the village,
0:16:57 > 0:17:05was there some truth to that?
0:17:05 > 0:17:08Witnesses said the policemen were called in by the village
0:17:08 > 0:17:12administrator, a local Buddhist Government official.
0:17:12 > 0:17:15A few days later that same official called a meeting.
0:17:15 > 0:17:16Elders from both communities were asked to sign
0:17:16 > 0:17:20a kind of peace treaty.
0:17:26 > 0:17:31Was that unusual to be asked to do something like that?
0:17:36 > 0:17:39The Rohingya of Tula Toli saw that document as an explicit
0:17:39 > 0:17:43guarantee of their safety.
0:17:43 > 0:17:47It's because of this they stayed in their homes even when they saw
0:17:47 > 0:17:50other villages being burned.
0:17:50 > 0:17:52Now they believe the administrator double crossed them.
0:18:07 > 0:18:09Almost everyone we spoke to mentioned this village
0:18:09 > 0:18:10administrator, the local Government representative.
0:18:10 > 0:18:13His name is Singh.
0:18:13 > 0:18:16He would accuse the villagers of supporting the militants some
0:18:16 > 0:18:20said, others that he tried to force them to register as foreigners.
0:18:20 > 0:18:23Another village elder, told me before the massacre
0:18:23 > 0:18:27he and Mr Singh had been in regular contact.
0:18:27 > 0:18:35Do you have his phone number, can you call him?
0:18:36 > 0:18:38Human rights investigators and journalists have been trying
0:18:38 > 0:18:41to talk to this man for months.
0:18:41 > 0:18:49None have managed to contact him, until now.
0:18:49 > 0:18:53Mr Hussein lost a son and three grandchildren in the attack.
0:18:53 > 0:18:56Now, over a crackly phone line he accuses the village administrator
0:18:56 > 0:19:06of complicity in the massacre.
0:19:51 > 0:19:54At the end of the conversation, Mr Hussein seems unconvinced.
0:19:54 > 0:20:03Do you believe him?
0:20:09 > 0:20:12The majority of Myanmar's Rohingya Muslims have by now already fled.
0:20:12 > 0:20:13Dispossessed and stateless, the mud soaked camps
0:20:13 > 0:20:23of Bangladesh are what they must, for now, call home.
0:20:26 > 0:20:28The Burmese Government says its military operation
0:20:28 > 0:20:32are a response to attacks by militants from the
0:20:32 > 0:20:38Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army on 25th August.
0:20:38 > 0:20:43But what about those reports of troop movements weeks earlier?
0:20:43 > 0:20:46Well, we are on our way now to meet an officer in the Bangladeshi border
0:20:46 > 0:20:50guard who might know more about this and might be willing to talk to us.
0:20:50 > 0:20:51Hello, Major.
0:20:51 > 0:20:52How's it going.
0:20:52 > 0:20:53Fine.
0:20:53 > 0:20:55Good.
0:20:55 > 0:20:59The major said he wasn't authorised to speak to the BBC on camera
0:20:59 > 0:21:02but we did have a conversation off camera and he said I could quote him
0:21:02 > 0:21:05with the following.
0:21:05 > 0:21:07They saw from around 5th August a huge concentration,
0:21:07 > 0:21:11his words of Myanmar military in the border area.
0:21:11 > 0:21:13his words, of Myanmar military in the border area.
0:21:13 > 0:21:16He said apart from burning people's homes they extorted
0:21:16 > 0:21:17valuables, took their money.
0:21:17 > 0:21:20I asked him what the purpose of all of this was, he said
0:21:20 > 0:21:25they are trying to make the state Rohingya free.
0:21:25 > 0:21:29By late morning on the 30th August, on the river bank at Tula Toli,
0:21:29 > 0:21:32dozens of people had already been murdered.
0:21:32 > 0:21:35But it wasn't over yet.
0:21:35 > 0:21:40Some villagers had escaped by swimming across the river,
0:21:40 > 0:21:41but many remained behind, especially younger women
0:21:41 > 0:21:44who had been separated from the rest by the soldiers.
0:21:44 > 0:21:54Those who survived endured an ordeal of almost unimaginable horror.
0:23:04 > 0:23:07Severely burned and wounded, Mumtaz managed to crawl to safety
0:23:07 > 0:23:12and eventually escape under cover of darkness.
0:23:12 > 0:23:15She came to Bangladesh with her seven-year-old daughter.
0:23:15 > 0:23:18Her daughter was beaten by the soldiers, but survived,
0:23:18 > 0:23:20the others did not.
0:23:20 > 0:23:27One of her children, she said, was burned to death.
0:23:38 > 0:23:40At least one other survivor of the Tula Toli massacre has
0:23:40 > 0:23:43reported her young child was thrown into a fire.
0:23:43 > 0:23:53Others had infants torn from their arms.
0:24:15 > 0:24:17Mumtaz is only 30 years old.
0:24:17 > 0:24:23The men who raped her, who killed her children, were soldiers.
0:24:23 > 0:24:26But she, like others, told us that non-Rohingya civilians
0:24:26 > 0:24:28took part in the attack that day as well, demanding
0:24:28 > 0:24:33money and valuables.
0:24:46 > 0:24:48I wondered about the Buddhist village administrator,
0:24:48 > 0:24:50no-one we spoke to said he personally took part
0:24:50 > 0:24:54in the attack, and it seems unlikely a local civilian official could have
0:24:54 > 0:24:57stopped the powerful Burmese military, but still it felt
0:24:57 > 0:25:02like he had questions to answer.
0:25:02 > 0:25:06Hello sir, it is the BBC here, just to say we are recording this call,
0:25:06 > 0:25:09can I ask you why did you not warn the villagers that the army
0:25:09 > 0:25:11was going to come in?
0:25:11 > 0:25:14The people here say that you wanted the Rohingya out of the village,
0:25:50 > 0:25:52The Burmese Government doesn't regard the Rohingya Muslims
0:25:52 > 0:25:55as citizens of Myanmar.
0:25:55 > 0:25:57Stark in the camps in Bangladesh without official status it will be
0:25:57 > 0:26:00hard for them to return home, even if they felt
0:26:00 > 0:26:06it was safe to do so.
0:26:06 > 0:26:08The United Nations has called this ethnic cleansing.
0:26:08 > 0:26:14Others prefer the term genocide.
0:26:14 > 0:26:17By whatever name you call it, the massacre at Tula Toli
0:26:17 > 0:26:21was a monstrous crime.
0:26:21 > 0:26:23A crime that the Burmese Government is not investigating.
0:26:23 > 0:26:25Every evening on the border, more people try to cross
0:26:25 > 0:26:28to safety in Bangladesh, new arrivals say the villages
0:26:28 > 0:26:38are still being burned.
0:26:38 > 0:26:41That they are still being chased and terrorised from their homes.
0:26:41 > 0:26:43If it continues like this there won't be many
0:26:43 > 0:26:47Rohingya left in Myanmar.
0:26:47 > 0:26:50Gabriel Gatehouse reporting.
0:26:50 > 0:26:52And making that film with him, were producer, James Clayton,
0:26:52 > 0:26:53and camerman, Jack Garland.
0:26:53 > 0:26:56We did contact the Myanmar embassy last week to get more
0:26:56 > 0:27:06on their side of the story, but we have not had a response.
0:27:08 > 0:27:11And one post script, to date the UK - that is DFID
0:27:11 > 0:27:14using the aid budget - has committed £47 million to help
0:27:14 > 0:27:15ease the situation there.
0:27:15 > 0:27:17On Brexit we had an apparent concession to MPs from
0:27:17 > 0:27:18the Government today.
0:27:18 > 0:27:20Yes, they'll get a vote on any Brexit deal.
0:27:20 > 0:27:23It'll be in legislation, enshrined in a Withdrawal Agreement
0:27:23 > 0:27:23and Implementation Bill.
0:27:23 > 0:27:26The debate now is whether that is the so-called meaningful vote that
0:27:26 > 0:27:29numerous MPs had sought or whether it is a fake meaningful vote.
0:27:29 > 0:27:38Our political editor, Nick Watt, is with me.
0:27:41 > 0:27:44Is that meaningful vote? It guess it depen on what happened if they vote
0:27:44 > 0:27:49noI think I will give you a yes, but answer, it is meaningful because
0:27:49 > 0:27:52we are talking about legislation, ledge laying could be amended and it
0:27:52 > 0:27:55will contrast with the earlier vote the Government's proposed which is
0:27:55 > 0:27:59is a vote on a motion that would take place on the deal before the
0:27:59 > 0:28:02European Parliament gets its vote. But this piece of legislation would
0:28:02 > 0:28:07be like a treaty, there will be a treaty with the EU, you can't really
0:28:07 > 0:28:10amend treaty, because it has been done. And also David Davis said this
0:28:10 > 0:28:17evening if you vote this bill down, you are voting for a no deal, and
0:28:17 > 0:28:21crucially, the pro European Tories would have lost the one bit of
0:28:21 > 0:28:24leverage they would have, if the Government succeeds in getting on to
0:28:24 > 0:28:31the face of the bill, its own amend, which is to name the date of Brexit.
0:28:31 > 0:28:36So that is...That happens unless you change itThey would not be able
0:28:36 > 0:28:41to say can we extend.So it is vote for the Deal or No Deal. Doesn't it
0:28:41 > 0:28:46mean that the only way the rebels can change the Government's mind is
0:28:46 > 0:28:49to vote the Government down, is to treat it as a confidence motion?
0:28:49 > 0:28:53Will they treat it as a confidence motion sand say if this fails the
0:28:53 > 0:28:57Government goes?Where we are now that is the on the way they could do
0:28:57 > 0:29:02it. At the moment the Tory rebels haven't got the numbers, there are
0:29:02 > 0:29:06five or six Labour people, MPs who will vote with the Government, the
0:29:06 > 0:29:10Government has a majority of ten. So the Tory rebels have to be in double
0:29:10 > 0:29:14figure, will they be there? I'm not sure, that is just to amend the
0:29:14 > 0:29:20legislation. Bringing down the Government? They would have to go in
0:29:20 > 0:29:23the division lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn, win a vote of no confidence
0:29:23 > 0:29:27and what? Give him two weeks to try and form a government. I don't think
0:29:27 > 0:29:32any Tory MP would do that.Last one, if it is not impossible that we will
0:29:32 > 0:29:36be often a take it or leave it deal by the EU at the end of it all and
0:29:36 > 0:29:39the Government will say we want the leave it, it is a bad deal. Is there
0:29:39 > 0:29:42any way MPs can say hang on a minute, you can't say no, we would
0:29:42 > 0:29:47like to say yes to that deal. Can they kind of, can the EU reach over
0:29:47 > 0:29:51the head of Government to give our MPs a deal that the Government don't
0:29:51 > 0:29:54want. ?Remember that the Government controls the legislative time
0:29:54 > 0:29:59Northern Ireland Assembly the House of Commons, and this is a minority
0:29:59 > 0:30:02Conservative administration but they do have the support of the DUP. Ten
0:30:02 > 0:30:06votes in the bag because the DUP do not want to see Jeremy Corbyn as
0:30:06 > 0:30:09Prime Minister, buzz you have right, the EU is thinking of doing that,
0:30:09 > 0:30:13because they are sensing weakness.
0:30:13 > 0:30:16Often on programmes like this, we talk about the world
0:30:16 > 0:30:18as if it is a rational place.
0:30:18 > 0:30:20We query policy decisions as though people have thought about them
0:30:20 > 0:30:22logically.
0:30:22 > 0:30:24Often they have, but in the last few decades,
0:30:24 > 0:30:28we have more than ever come to realise that human thought is far
0:30:28 > 0:30:30from rational and is subject to all sorts of human error.
0:30:30 > 0:30:32We have cognitive biases that sway our thinking,
0:30:32 > 0:30:35just as Spock used to tell us in Star Trek.
0:30:35 > 0:30:37Apart from him, it was two Israeli psychologists who worked
0:30:37 > 0:30:41together in the '70s and '80s, who did more than anyone
0:30:41 > 0:30:43to promote our understanding of our irrational side.
0:30:43 > 0:30:46And their collaboration makes a fascinating
0:30:46 > 0:30:49story in its own right.
0:30:49 > 0:30:52It's been told in a book called The Undoing Project by the acclaimed
0:30:52 > 0:30:55US writer Michael Lewis, the man behind the Big Short and
0:30:55 > 0:30:58Moneyball among other blockbusters.
0:30:58 > 0:31:01I met up with him this morning, to talk about the world today,
0:31:01 > 0:31:03cognitive biases, and those two Israeli psychologists who most
0:31:03 > 0:31:08people have probably not heard of.
0:31:08 > 0:31:10So I forgive people who haven't heard of them,
0:31:10 > 0:31:13because I hadn't heard of them.
0:31:13 > 0:31:15Danny would be best known for having one won the noble prize
0:31:15 > 0:31:17in economics in 2002.
0:31:17 > 0:31:20Despite not being an economist.
0:31:20 > 0:31:23There were two psychologists, who met in the late 60s,
0:31:23 > 0:31:28in Jerusalem and though they were seen by the people
0:31:28 > 0:31:31round them as complete opposite, total odd couple.
0:31:31 > 0:31:35One was neurotic an depressed an artistic and imaginative
0:31:35 > 0:31:43and the other was this very up beat logician, but who was kind
0:31:43 > 0:31:48of everybody could see his genius, they came together to do work
0:31:48 > 0:31:51that was unlike any work that had been done in psychology,
0:31:51 > 0:31:56they explored scientifically how the mind worked, and specifically,
0:31:56 > 0:32:01they went looking for the errors the mind make, and found kind
0:32:01 > 0:32:06of systematic errors that the mind makes and this had implications
0:32:06 > 0:32:09for all kinds of fields, you name the field I can
0:32:09 > 0:32:13give you an implication, but medicine, in law,
0:32:13 > 0:32:16and their work spawned the field of behavioural economics.
0:32:16 > 0:32:19The partnership between them was fantastically productive,
0:32:19 > 0:32:22and as you say, sort of revolutionised the way
0:32:22 > 0:32:26we think about thinking, And then they didn't quite hold it
0:32:26 > 0:32:28together at the end.
0:32:28 > 0:32:30Oh no.
0:32:30 > 0:32:35They busted up like a pair of loves who were upset with each other.
0:32:35 > 0:32:38The relationship, the relationship had exactly the ark of a romantic
0:32:38 > 0:32:41affair, they met each other, they fell in love with each
0:32:41 > 0:32:51other's minds, they had ten spectacular year,
0:32:53 > 0:32:55the sex was the ideas, the children were the result.
0:32:55 > 0:32:58Give us an example of your favourite cognitive error we make
0:32:58 > 0:33:01You have a simple one to describe, the way totally irrelevant
0:33:01 > 0:33:03information can distort a decision, they call it anchoring,
0:33:03 > 0:33:06so they brought people into a room, they gave, put them with a wheel
0:33:06 > 0:33:11of fortune that had numbers 0 to 99 on it.
0:33:11 > 0:33:15They had them spin the wheel of fortune, and it would come up
0:33:15 > 0:33:18on a number, they would ask them after this what percentage
0:33:18 > 0:33:22of the countries in the United Nations are in from Africa.
0:33:22 > 0:33:26And the people who had spun a high number would guess a higher number
0:33:26 > 0:33:29and the people who spun allow number would guess a low number.
0:33:29 > 0:33:32America's in a peculiar place at the moment, isn't it?
0:33:32 > 0:33:36Have you found this cognitive bias framework useful
0:33:36 > 0:33:40in thinking about Trump, the election, the way
0:33:40 > 0:33:44the voters have behaved?
0:33:44 > 0:33:47The joy of this is that you can filter almost anything through it,
0:33:47 > 0:33:49you can certainly filter the election through it.
0:33:49 > 0:33:53The first thing their work would say is wasn't it incredible,
0:33:53 > 0:33:57after the election, how an event that nobody saw coming,
0:33:57 > 0:34:01all of a sudden, starts to get explained in all kinds of ways that
0:34:01 > 0:34:03suggests it was predictable.
0:34:03 > 0:34:07Their point would be it wasn't predictable.
0:34:07 > 0:34:08There's a lot of randomness in elections.
0:34:08 > 0:34:10You hold the election one day versus another
0:34:10 > 0:34:11you get a different result.
0:34:11 > 0:34:14Who shows up that day, so on and so forth.
0:34:14 > 0:34:17Where do you think it's going to go?
0:34:17 > 0:34:21I still hold out hope for a comic ending, rather than a tragic one.
0:34:21 > 0:34:25He has no idea what he's doing.
0:34:25 > 0:34:31He's surrounding himself largely, often with people who have no
0:34:31 > 0:34:35idea, who are ill suited to the role they're playing.
0:34:35 > 0:34:39He's trying to mobilise ugly forces in society.
0:34:39 > 0:34:41I don't think there's enough of it to sustain.
0:34:41 > 0:34:51If I had to bet what happens, I'd bet he's out of office in a year.
0:34:51 > 0:34:55I mean it does seem like American checks and balances have stopped him
0:34:55 > 0:34:58doing very much, right?
0:34:58 > 0:35:00He hasn't actually, look at what he's done,
0:35:00 > 0:35:02he's basically tweeted a lot.
0:35:02 > 0:35:04He's appointed some judges.
0:35:04 > 0:35:06They're going to be there for a long time.
0:35:06 > 0:35:07He's made a lot of people unhappy.
0:35:07 > 0:35:12He's stopped some refugees from coming into the country.
0:35:12 > 0:35:15He's made people very unsettled about their health care.
0:35:15 > 0:35:18What he's done is change everybody's mood.
0:35:18 > 0:35:21Quite likely what's going to happen is it's going to get worse.
0:35:21 > 0:35:26His presence in the office is weakening his party.
0:35:26 > 0:35:31The way he's reacting to the Muller investigation he's
0:35:31 > 0:35:35behaving exactly as a man would on whom Russia had something.
0:35:35 > 0:35:41I mean, the only way to explain the tone of his behaviour is he's
0:35:41 > 0:35:44afraid of what Russia might do to him.
0:35:44 > 0:35:46Michael Lewis, thank you very much.
0:35:46 > 0:35:49Thank you.
0:35:49 > 0:35:51How can we protect rhinos?
0:35:51 > 0:35:53There are only about 28,000 in the wild,
0:35:53 > 0:35:57and a new film invites us to wonder whether hunting them,
0:35:57 > 0:36:00or allowing trade in their horns, can actually be good
0:36:00 > 0:36:07for the species.
0:36:07 > 0:36:11I am paying for this hunt, people are employed because we are hunting.
0:36:11 > 0:36:13If there is no value and we can't hunt these animals,
0:36:13 > 0:36:15they will be extinct.
0:36:15 > 0:36:18The commodification of wildlife, what a vision
0:36:18 > 0:36:19of nature that would be.
0:36:19 > 0:36:21They like to talk about conservation,
0:36:21 > 0:36:27they are just brainwashing.
0:36:27 > 0:36:29They enjoy killing.
0:36:29 > 0:36:30The change is coming.
0:36:30 > 0:36:31We're going to put it into this.
0:36:31 > 0:36:33Surely we want our world to survive.
0:36:33 > 0:36:36We have to keep this fight going.
0:36:36 > 0:36:38This is my trophy, and there's not any bureaucrat that can
0:36:38 > 0:36:40take it away from me.
0:36:40 > 0:36:46Now - that's the taster of the film Trophy -
0:36:46 > 0:36:48which is in cinemas and downloadable later this week.
0:36:48 > 0:36:51It looks at the money that can be raised and the habitat protected
0:36:51 > 0:36:53by allowing some commercial hunting.
0:36:53 > 0:36:55Or more intriguingly, the idea of farming rhino in order
0:36:55 > 0:36:57to sell their ivory.
0:36:57 > 0:36:59Clearly, this has not been the traditional approach
0:36:59 > 0:37:00to animal protection.
0:37:00 > 0:37:03Well, joining me are John Hume, who claims to be the world's biggest
0:37:03 > 0:37:05private rhino breeder.
0:37:05 > 0:37:07He features in the film, and wants to sell ivory
0:37:07 > 0:37:10that is humanely taken from the animals.
0:37:10 > 0:37:13Also with me is Tania McCrea-Steele from the International Fund
0:37:13 > 0:37:16for Animal Welfare.
0:37:16 > 0:37:22Very good evening to you both. John, tell us what you do - you've got how
0:37:22 > 0:37:29many rhino on your ranch?I have 1,538 as of today.You breed them?I
0:37:29 > 0:37:33breed rhinos and I believe that I have the recipe to save them from
0:37:33 > 0:37:39extinction.Which is?Breeding better, protecting better.Right.
0:37:39 > 0:37:43And the crucial bit that you want, which is you basically take off
0:37:43 > 0:37:47their horns. You don't kill them to take off their horns.No, you only
0:37:47 > 0:37:51take off their horns, like you take off your nails. Cutting it off on
0:37:51 > 0:37:59the dead part that's not alive. So we trim their horns and the day
0:37:59 > 0:38:04after we've trimmed them, it's worth so much less to the poacher.Because
0:38:04 > 0:38:09the rhino hasn't got much horn left. It's worth so much left for him to
0:38:09 > 0:38:13kill and steal the horn. It's necessary to make it less attractive
0:38:13 > 0:38:17to the poacher, when he's still got the same amount of risk, the same
0:38:17 > 0:38:21amount of work but much less we regard.Crucial -- reward. Crucially
0:38:21 > 0:38:24you want the money from selling the horn to pay for the whole operation.
0:38:24 > 0:38:29Exactly. Having removed some of the horn, by the horn trimming
0:38:29 > 0:38:34procedure, it is dangerous to store it and expensive to store it. So why
0:38:34 > 0:38:39don't we use the money from the horn to save the lives of the rest of the
0:38:39 > 0:38:45rhino.Let me put that question to Tanya. We get the business model.
0:38:45 > 0:38:49Yeah.What is wrong with that as a business model?I understand that
0:38:49 > 0:38:53John is a businessman and trading in rhino horn, let's face it, is
0:38:53 > 0:39:00profitable. That's what is motivating all these criminals to
0:39:00 > 0:39:02change their criminal syndicates and focus on illegal trade in rhino
0:39:02 > 0:39:08horn. What we'll see with the sale going ahead is actually the demand
0:39:08 > 0:39:13for rhino horn being stoked. We'll see an increase in appetite for the
0:39:13 > 0:39:18trade in rhino horn. What we really need to do is we need to suppress
0:39:18 > 0:39:22that demand -You're legitimising a market, basically.Yeah, then it
0:39:22 > 0:39:27makes it nigh on impossible for both consumers who might buy into the
0:39:27 > 0:39:31green washing, but for enforcers to tell the difference between illegal
0:39:31 > 0:39:36rhino horn and legal horn. If you're buying a piece of rhino horn, find
0:39:36 > 0:39:41me one customer that's going to DNA test it.The crucial issue is
0:39:41 > 0:39:46whether a market in rhino horns legitimises the illegal market in
0:39:46 > 0:39:53rhino horns?No banning has ever worked in the world. America learned
0:39:53 > 0:39:58that lesson by trying to ban alcohol. We have given the market to
0:39:58 > 0:40:03the poachers. We've given them carte blanche. They've got no competition.
0:40:03 > 0:40:10All the business has gone to them. Because we've kept it away from the
0:40:10 > 0:40:15legal suppliers of rhino horn. My rhinos will all be dead in ten years
0:40:15 > 0:40:19if I don't finance keeping them alive.That's simply not true. Back
0:40:19 > 0:40:25in the 80s we saw an ivory ban come into effect. We saw ivory poaching
0:40:25 > 0:40:32massively decrease. Then we saw a case being made for putting legal
0:40:32 > 0:40:37ivory back into circulation and what we saw after that, which we
0:40:37 > 0:40:39prophesised, which was there would be a spike in poaching. That's
0:40:39 > 0:40:42exactly what's happened. This has played out before with elephants. We
0:40:42 > 0:40:47need to make sure it doesn't happen again with rhinos. We're reaching a
0:40:47 > 0:40:51tipping point where we're getting the political momentum to tackle
0:40:51 > 0:40:54this problem. This is going to really be a backward step because
0:40:54 > 0:40:59we're on the verge of bidding the network to break a network.There
0:40:59 > 0:41:04are elephant experts in Africa who will completely disagree with that
0:41:04 > 0:41:09and tell you a one-off sale is not the way to go, not in ivory or rhino
0:41:09 > 0:41:15horn. Obviously, I'm here to argue for the life of my rhinos.The
0:41:15 > 0:41:19interesting thing is that some say if you can let people make money out
0:41:19 > 0:41:25a big mammal, the big mammals will survive. If you make money by
0:41:25 > 0:41:30killing big mammals they will be extinct in a few generations.It's a
0:41:30 > 0:41:34lovely idea in an ideal world. But this is the real world. This isn't
0:41:34 > 0:41:37just about the rhinos, this is about the lives of the people standing
0:41:37 > 0:41:40between the rhinos and poachers to protect them because they want
0:41:40 > 0:41:42rhinos to be around for their children. They don't want to see
0:41:42 > 0:41:46them go the way of the dinosaurs. What we're doing at the
0:41:46 > 0:41:48international fund for animal welfare is working with local
0:41:48 > 0:41:54communities to make sure that they can benefit from wildlife thriving
0:41:54 > 0:41:59on their doorstep and working on tangible solutions.The film is
0:41:59 > 0:42:02called Trophy, thank you both very much indeed.
0:42:02 > 0:42:03That's all we have time for.
0:42:03 > 0:42:04I'm back tomorrow.
0:42:04 > 0:42:11Till then, goodnight.