0:00:08 > 0:00:15A country in ecstasy, as Robert Mugabe steps down.
0:00:15 > 0:00:16He resigns, after nearly four decades
0:00:16 > 0:00:19at Zimbabwe's helm.
0:00:19 > 0:00:22But will it be more of the same in Zimbabwe?
0:00:22 > 0:00:26We speak to Morgan Tsvangirai,
0:00:26 > 0:00:28the opposition leader and one-time Prime Minister,
0:00:28 > 0:00:30who battled Mugabe at the ballot box.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33So, like in any new birth, I think the celebration represents a new...
0:00:33 > 0:00:37A new feeling.
0:00:37 > 0:00:40And I think it will go down like in 1980,
0:00:40 > 0:00:44when we got our independence, as a very memorable occasion.
0:00:44 > 0:00:46Also tonight...
0:00:46 > 0:00:48Ahead of the budget, the Chancellor will be dotting
0:00:48 > 0:00:52the Is and crossing the Ts.
0:00:52 > 0:00:54But do we really need something far, far more radical?
0:00:54 > 0:00:56We report from Middlesborough.
0:00:56 > 0:01:02At the moment, struggling.
0:01:02 > 0:01:09When the food runs out, I'll start crying, and...
0:01:09 > 0:01:12And I'll...ask my daughter - hopefully she'll have
0:01:12 > 0:01:14something for me.
0:01:14 > 0:01:23Or my son, my eldest son.
0:01:24 > 0:01:35And... But I ain't spending any time on it because in the meantime, every
0:01:35 > 0:01:41three months, a person is torn to pieces by a crocodile in Queensland.
0:01:41 > 0:01:44Good evening.
0:01:44 > 0:01:46When it happened, it almost happened too quickly.
0:01:46 > 0:01:48A letter read out in parliament that would herald the biggest
0:01:48 > 0:01:50political change the country has known for decades.
0:01:50 > 0:01:54And then, gently, like a ripple, word spread until it hit
0:01:54 > 0:01:56the streets, stopping conversations in mid flow, starting tears -
0:01:56 > 0:01:58unbidden, unhidden and unembarrassed.
0:01:58 > 0:01:59Robert Mugabe no longer rules Zimbabwe.
0:01:59 > 0:02:03That much still needs to sink in.
0:02:03 > 0:02:06Tonight we ask how this very peaceful coup has managed to do
0:02:06 > 0:02:09what it set out to do, and whether Zimbabwe's next leader
0:02:09 > 0:02:11will truly be a break with what has gone before.
0:02:11 > 0:02:14We also get the world's first interview after the news broke
0:02:14 > 0:02:16with Zimbabwe's opposition leader and one-time prime minister
0:02:16 > 0:02:19Morgan Tsvingirai.
0:02:19 > 0:02:22All that to come, but we start, where else, but Harare.
0:02:22 > 0:02:27Our correspondent Shingai Nyoka is there.
0:02:27 > 0:02:33Tell us what kind of David has been for you.It's been the most
0:02:33 > 0:02:39extraordinary day that I can remember since independence in 1980.
0:02:39 > 0:02:43I was a young girl then but I remember the celebration and the
0:02:43 > 0:02:48euphoria, the sense that this was a new beginning. And the scenes that I
0:02:48 > 0:02:53have witnessed a few hours ago today really brought back that sense, that
0:02:53 > 0:02:57glimmer of hope, and I saw that in the eyes of Zimbabweans who now
0:02:57 > 0:03:02believe that after 37 years, they now have a real sense of change.
0:03:02 > 0:03:07What do you think happens tomorrow? Is anyone talking about that, or is
0:03:07 > 0:03:15it just an endless party?It is an endless party at the moment. Those
0:03:15 > 0:03:18questions are being asked now that President Robert Mugabe has stepped
0:03:18 > 0:03:24down, who will take over? Everybody knows that this stage that his
0:03:24 > 0:03:28sacked vice president and long-time ally Emmerson Mnangagwa will be
0:03:28 > 0:03:34sworn in as president and that will happen tomorrow or the day after.
0:03:34 > 0:03:38But at this stage Zimbabweans are saying that they want to savour the
0:03:38 > 0:03:42moment and they don't want to think about what will happen tomorrow.
0:03:42 > 0:03:45As you've seen, Zimbabwe is in party mode tonight.
0:03:45 > 0:03:47What can it be like for a leader to watch these
0:03:47 > 0:03:49scenes of jubilation and reflect on how happy you've
0:03:49 > 0:03:51made your own people by going?
0:03:51 > 0:03:53Mike Thompson looks at what Zimbabwe feels like tonight,
0:03:53 > 0:03:55and what the future may now hold.
0:03:55 > 0:04:02The crowds had waited a long, long time for the news.
0:04:02 > 0:04:05And when it came, it was met by an outpouring of joy
0:04:05 > 0:04:09not seen in decades.
0:04:09 > 0:04:11After impeachment proceedings got underway, President Robert Mugabe's
0:04:11 > 0:04:16resignation letter was finally read to the House.
0:04:16 > 0:04:24CHEERING
0:04:24 > 0:04:27Outside, some found it all too much to take in.
0:04:27 > 0:04:30I'm very happy.
0:04:30 > 0:04:32I don't have anything to say, but I'm
0:04:32 > 0:04:39happy with this.
0:04:39 > 0:04:41Mugabe has...
0:04:41 > 0:04:43I don't have any words to say now.
0:04:43 > 0:04:4537 years with one president, is doesn't
0:04:45 > 0:04:46make any sense.
0:04:46 > 0:04:50So this time it is a new era for us as a nation.
0:04:50 > 0:04:53We were tired of this man, we are so glad he
0:04:53 > 0:04:54has gone.
0:04:54 > 0:04:55We don't want him any more.
0:04:55 > 0:04:57And yes, today it is victory.
0:04:57 > 0:04:58It is victory in our hearts.
0:04:58 > 0:05:05It is victory for our children.
0:05:05 > 0:05:09But how long will this euphoria continuing coverage will the man
0:05:09 > 0:05:15expected to replace Mugabe, his former henchmen and vice president
0:05:15 > 0:05:20Emmerson Mnangagwa, sweep away oppression? Is the nation simply
0:05:20 > 0:05:30swapping one tyrant for another?He has some skeletons in his cupboard
0:05:30 > 0:05:33as a former henchmen of Mugabe. But we know he is more open to change
0:05:33 > 0:05:43double Mugabe. He's also more open for Western involvement.
0:05:43 > 0:05:46Independence in 1980 promised much under a man who seemed to value
0:05:46 > 0:05:53democracy and human rights. As the years went by, repression through
0:05:53 > 0:05:58and Zimbabwe evolved into a virtual 1-party state. Only Mugabe's party,
0:05:58 > 0:06:03Zanu-PF, is allowed to win elections.There is no room for
0:06:03 > 0:06:11opposition at the heart of government. Zanu-PF, but it, there
0:06:11 > 0:06:17is no Prime Minister from anywhere else. The first thing we will see is
0:06:17 > 0:06:24whether there will be constitutional amendments to allow for that.Given
0:06:24 > 0:06:28that the figure likely to be president initially at least has a
0:06:28 > 0:06:33reputation as a hard man, on used to compromise, such amendments might be
0:06:33 > 0:06:37hard to get. But some take the view that having finally got rid of
0:06:37 > 0:06:41Mugabe after 37 long years, the momentum for change is now
0:06:41 > 0:06:49unstoppable.Politicians, they all focus on power. But we will focus on
0:06:49 > 0:06:53them delivering on the issues that they promised, we will focus on
0:06:53 > 0:06:58delivering our rights. So, it's not going to be easy but right now, the
0:06:58 > 0:07:01people of Zimbabwe have the confidence to stand up for their
0:07:01 > 0:07:09rights and to demand the right to be respected.Few will be looking too
0:07:09 > 0:07:15far into the future just now. In the coming days, it is more likely to be
0:07:15 > 0:07:18celebrations of the dawn of a new era which many thought might never
0:07:18 > 0:07:24come.
0:07:24 > 0:07:26The Mugabe resignation came by letter, in mid-afternoon.
0:07:26 > 0:07:29Just a few minutes later, I spoke to the opposition leader,
0:07:29 > 0:07:30Morgan Tsvangirai himself.
0:07:30 > 0:07:32The MDC leader contested Mugabe in 2008, winning more votes
0:07:32 > 0:07:34than Mugabe in the first round.
0:07:34 > 0:07:37But when he tried to claim the presidency, he encountered
0:07:37 > 0:07:39widepsread violence and intimidation by government supporters,
0:07:39 > 0:07:42and withdrew, offering instead to power-share with Mugabe,
0:07:42 > 0:07:45which he eventually did, with limited success.
0:07:45 > 0:07:48I began by asking Tsvangirai if it would open the door to real
0:07:48 > 0:07:58democracy in the country.
0:08:03 > 0:08:11One would hope that
0:08:11 > 0:08:13it opens a new trajectory where people are respected and that
0:08:13 > 0:08:21the rule of law is restored.
0:08:21 > 0:08:24Does that mean, then, that you will sit quietly
0:08:24 > 0:08:27by until August 2018?
0:08:27 > 0:08:30You won't press for free and fair elections before
0:08:30 > 0:08:31that date of August?
0:08:31 > 0:08:38Absolutely not.
0:08:38 > 0:08:41My role is to ensure that the MDC has a role to play
0:08:41 > 0:08:47during these eight months that are there.
0:08:47 > 0:08:50The fact that this transition happened internally,
0:08:50 > 0:08:56Zanu-PF passing from one leader to the next, suggests
0:08:56 > 0:08:59the opposition, your party, the MDC, had no role to play at all?
0:08:59 > 0:09:05Well, remember that this was not...
0:09:05 > 0:09:15Yes, there was an internal Zanu-PF factionalism.
0:09:15 > 0:09:18But remember that it is the military which intervened
0:09:18 > 0:09:18in that faction war.
0:09:18 > 0:09:20Does that mean that Zanu PF is united?
0:09:20 > 0:09:21Far from it.
0:09:21 > 0:09:23What about MDC?
0:09:23 > 0:09:25You are the opposition party and yet you have seen this
0:09:25 > 0:09:26happen as bystanders?
0:09:26 > 0:09:29Well, we're not the military.
0:09:29 > 0:09:35It is only the military which has taken an interventionist role.
0:09:35 > 0:09:39So, as far as we are concerned, our role will always be democratic.
0:09:39 > 0:09:43Do you think it was a mistake for you to agree to support
0:09:43 > 0:09:50the Mugabe government in 2008 after those elections?
0:09:50 > 0:09:53You wanted to go in and be part of that - looking back,
0:09:53 > 0:09:54was that a mistake?
0:09:54 > 0:09:56Well, it was a strategic intervention.
0:09:56 > 0:09:58Our people were suffering and we needed to rescue the country.
0:09:58 > 0:10:00So, it was not a mistake.
0:10:00 > 0:10:03I don't regret it at all.
0:10:03 > 0:10:06If you ask Zimbabweans, 85% of them did not care about Mugabe,
0:10:06 > 0:10:11they cared about their welfare.
0:10:11 > 0:10:14And because of our intervention, we were able to rescue
0:10:14 > 0:10:21Zimbabweans from a very dire situation that existed.
0:10:21 > 0:10:24And will you stand in the elections in August of 2018, do you want to be
0:10:24 > 0:10:28Zimbabwe's next president?
0:10:28 > 0:10:33Well, it's too early to tell.
0:10:33 > 0:10:35But definitely my party will decide and my alliance partners
0:10:35 > 0:10:38will decide whether I will be a candidate or not.
0:10:38 > 0:10:41What should happen to Robert Mugabe now, would you like to see him
0:10:41 > 0:10:44indicted for war crimes?
0:10:44 > 0:10:47No, I don't think so.
0:10:47 > 0:10:51I think to pursue the old man would be a futile exercise.
0:10:51 > 0:10:54I think let him go and rest his last days.
0:10:54 > 0:10:56So, you bear him no ill will?
0:10:56 > 0:11:02No, I don't.
0:11:02 > 0:11:08I don't have any ill will at all.
0:11:08 > 0:11:12In fact, my call for him has always been, why don't
0:11:12 > 0:11:14you find a dignified exit?
0:11:14 > 0:11:16That is why Zimbabweans have been pressurising him.
0:11:16 > 0:11:19And you have claimed that this is a victory for the Army.
0:11:19 > 0:11:21Zanu-PF has said it is not a coup.
0:11:21 > 0:11:27Do you see it as a coup?
0:11:27 > 0:11:30No, but I've never said it is a victory for the army.
0:11:30 > 0:11:31I said the army intervened.
0:11:31 > 0:11:33But the people supported them.
0:11:33 > 0:11:35I don't want to get into arguments about was it a coup,
0:11:35 > 0:11:39was it not a coup.
0:11:39 > 0:11:42As far as the people are concerned, it's something that was desirable
0:11:42 > 0:11:43and maybe the means justifies the end.
0:11:43 > 0:11:46People will look back in years to come on this
0:11:46 > 0:11:50day in November 2017.
0:11:50 > 0:11:53Tell them what this day means in history, the day that
0:11:53 > 0:11:57Robert Mugabe resigned?
0:11:57 > 0:12:03Well, I'm sure that the people of Zimbabwe will look back
0:12:03 > 0:12:09to this day with a hearty degree of nostalgia.
0:12:09 > 0:12:11Because it's something that they have been wishing
0:12:11 > 0:12:16for for the last five years.
0:12:16 > 0:12:18But it's been very difficult to achieve because of the machinery
0:12:18 > 0:12:21that has been put to prevent it.
0:12:21 > 0:12:23So, like in any new birth, I think the celebration
0:12:23 > 0:12:28represents a new feeling.
0:12:28 > 0:12:33And I think it will go down like in 1980,
0:12:33 > 0:12:34when we got our independence,
0:12:34 > 0:12:38as a very memorable occasion.
0:12:38 > 0:12:40The opposition leader there saying Mugabe should not be
0:12:40 > 0:12:42indicted for war crimes, and that he didn't know
0:12:42 > 0:12:45if he would ever stand again for President.
0:12:45 > 0:12:48So, where will the country wake up with its collective hangover?
0:12:48 > 0:12:50Will Zimbabwe seem like a new place tomorrow?
0:12:50 > 0:12:52Joining me now are Xavier Zavare from Robert Mugabe's party, Zanu-PF,
0:12:52 > 0:12:55the Zimbabwean journalist Georgina Godwin, and Miles Tendi,
0:12:55 > 0:12:57a Zimbabwean writer and academic, who lectures at Oxford University -
0:12:57 > 0:13:07but first our diplomatic editor Mark Urban.
0:13:13 > 0:13:17It does all seem incredibly peaceful and happy, this whole transition was
0:13:17 > 0:13:25ultimately smooth. But was it a takeover essentially Bardiani?Well,
0:13:25 > 0:13:29it's undoubtedly anything which sends shudders through many of the
0:13:29 > 0:13:34established powers that be throughout Africa. We saw that in
0:13:34 > 0:13:37the African Union statement that greeted the initial move by the
0:13:37 > 0:13:40military, very much against this idea of the military taking power.
0:13:40 > 0:13:44Many people in the region worry about it, many people speculate
0:13:44 > 0:13:49about Jacob Zuma in South Africa, how much he worries about it and the
0:13:49 > 0:13:53extent to which he tries to influence this transition, worrying
0:13:53 > 0:13:56about how it was going. I suppose all you can say from the point of
0:13:56 > 0:14:00view of somebody like Jacob Zuma is that the very things which are
0:14:00 > 0:14:02concerning to the opposition about the way this is happening, in other
0:14:02 > 0:14:09words, the crocodile Emmerson Mnangagwa is a creature of Zanu-PF
0:14:09 > 0:14:12and the apparatus which has engineered that, are things which
0:14:12 > 0:14:18will give him comfort in this situation.Do you think this is easy
0:14:18 > 0:14:22for the international community, is there one clear line in terms of how
0:14:22 > 0:14:28they respond to this now?Well, a fair bit of emphasis being put by
0:14:28 > 0:14:31foreign ministries around the world on the need for a move towards free
0:14:31 > 0:14:34and fair elections, that type of thing, the sort of thing you would
0:14:34 > 0:14:38expect them to say just what I have to say that in a situation like
0:14:38 > 0:14:43this, where you've had so long under somebody in charge who is considered
0:14:43 > 0:14:48so undesirable and so difficult to get along with by the international
0:14:48 > 0:14:51community, everyone will want to take advantage of this reset, even
0:14:51 > 0:14:57if he doesn't prove in the long run to be so different to President
0:14:57 > 0:15:02Mugabe, they will want to deal with somebody that gives them a fresh
0:15:02 > 0:15:05chance to reset on trade, on tourism and to take advantage of this
0:15:05 > 0:15:11moment.
0:15:11 > 0:15:23Let's join our guests now. Georgina, what does that mean for your life
0:15:23 > 0:15:28now?It is extraordinary, this is the one goal I have been working
0:15:28 > 0:15:32towards professionally all my life. I hardly remember a time without
0:15:32 > 0:15:37Robert Mugabe, he has influenced every sphere of my life and it is
0:15:37 > 0:15:43too big for words almost.Have you spoken to family or friends back
0:15:43 > 0:15:48home?I have and they are absolutely elated as are my butt with a note of
0:15:48 > 0:15:52caution and I think that is something we all must be aware. It
0:15:52 > 0:15:57is important for us to celebrate and God knows we have had this coming
0:15:57 > 0:16:03for a long time but I do think this is our moment and we have to seize
0:16:03 > 0:16:07the opportunity. I also think it is incredibly important to honour the
0:16:07 > 0:16:13people that got us to this point and perhaps even need a second wave of
0:16:13 > 0:16:16war veterans, to honour people in some way because so many people have
0:16:16 > 0:16:22suffered and the people in Zimbabwe who did not eat today will not
0:16:22 > 0:16:26necessarily eat tomorrow.So when you said note of caution, what is
0:16:26 > 0:16:34that referring to?Everyone involved with Zanu PF in any way is somehow
0:16:34 > 0:16:39associated with everything Robert Mugabe did and can a leopard change
0:16:39 > 0:16:44its spots, we do not know but there is this window of opportunity. You
0:16:44 > 0:16:48have the international community watching and you have, you cannot
0:16:48 > 0:16:54put the genie back in the box, you have the people now who have tasted
0:16:54 > 0:16:57freedom and the army who for once did not have too oppressed people.
0:16:57 > 0:17:01Why should anyone in Zimbabwe now believe that Emmerson Mnangagwa will
0:17:01 > 0:17:06be any different to the man who he governed alongside as vice president
0:17:06 > 0:17:12for all those years, Xavier Zavare? I think there is a reason to believe
0:17:12 > 0:17:14in Emmerson Mnangagwa in the sense that for the first time he will be
0:17:14 > 0:17:22able to come out of the shell and be himself. The Emmerson Mnangagwa we
0:17:22 > 0:17:27know is very pragmatic in terms of situations. He is also a good
0:17:27 > 0:17:33listener in terms of everyone he works around with.You worked, he
0:17:33 > 0:17:37worked alongside Mugabe with the massacres, the corruption, why would
0:17:37 > 0:17:42he not back that government now? Well he needs to have his own legacy
0:17:42 > 0:17:48away from Robert Mugabe and he will have to work very hard for that. And
0:17:48 > 0:17:52that is a source of comfort for me and source of belief that he will
0:17:52 > 0:17:58want to do very well and do things differently. Even one of the
0:17:58 > 0:18:02challenges why he ran for his life was this argument behind the scenes
0:18:02 > 0:18:08that he was having with Mugabe.And Miles, do you think that Emmerson
0:18:08 > 0:18:12Mnangagwa then becomes in charge of Zimbabwe or is that the army pulling
0:18:12 > 0:18:17the strings question mark that is a good question and I would like to
0:18:17 > 0:18:23move beyond personalities, this was done by the army.I call them deep
0:18:23 > 0:18:29state, they will not go away and the important question to ask as well,
0:18:29 > 0:18:32when Emmerson Mnangagwa becomes president is is he really in charge
0:18:32 > 0:18:38or is it the Army behind the scenes. That are running the show. You do
0:18:38 > 0:18:42not think he called on the Army but the Army called on him, a decision
0:18:42 > 0:18:48that came from the military?He may have called on the Army but the
0:18:48 > 0:18:55military did the work. And in that sense he owes them. While he was
0:18:55 > 0:18:59away from the country the Army did this. So they have a significant
0:18:59 > 0:19:05hold of him.Is that how Zanu PF likes to see it now, that the Army
0:19:05 > 0:19:11can bring him in, replacing, they may be calling the shots?I do not
0:19:11 > 0:19:15think our defence forces would like to operate that way. The evidence of
0:19:15 > 0:19:20what we've seen is that they have tried as much as they can with this
0:19:20 > 0:19:24intervention to let the government function, to make sure that the
0:19:24 > 0:19:29world understands it is not a cool. They're just helping out in a
0:19:29 > 0:19:33difficult situation. I do not think they would want to be seen
0:19:33 > 0:19:36continuing being involved, they will just go back to their barracks and
0:19:36 > 0:19:40remain as professional as they have always been.Do you sit back and
0:19:40 > 0:19:46think this is a change for Zimbabwe, using the Army in a very peaceful
0:19:46 > 0:19:55way?It is not a coup? That language had to be used in order not to
0:19:55 > 0:19:59stimulate regional fight back. But I think the Army themselves, the rank
0:19:59 > 0:20:03and file where out there having selfies done with citizens, those
0:20:03 > 0:20:07are their brothers and sisters and I think the Army now have had that
0:20:07 > 0:20:13taste of being part of the crowd, of all that joy and I think that cannot
0:20:13 > 0:20:18be stopped. I also think it is wonderful for us to be here together
0:20:18 > 0:20:23tonight because as Morgan said in a speech earlier today we must go
0:20:23 > 0:20:29forward in hope and joy. And I think the only way forward is to say some
0:20:29 > 0:20:32terrible things happened, we acknowledge that and we have to move
0:20:32 > 0:20:38on and have some kind of unity.It is interesting how little
0:20:38 > 0:20:40recrimination is, I was amazed speaking to Morgan Tsvangirai that
0:20:40 > 0:20:44he did not want to talk about indictment or imprisonment. What
0:20:44 > 0:20:51happens now to Mugabe?I do not think much will happen to him
0:20:51 > 0:20:55because the people who replaced him with the people...Essentially he
0:20:55 > 0:21:00will be left to die an old man? Because the people who replaced him
0:21:00 > 0:21:03did his dirty work and if you bring him down that would bring them down
0:21:03 > 0:21:10as well.Are there any Mugabe supporters left in the country
0:21:10 > 0:21:14tonight, how does a man who has been held in power for 37 years suddenly
0:21:14 > 0:21:19have no wonder they're on the ground who supports him question what it is
0:21:19 > 0:21:23not necessary that he does not have supporters any more because many
0:21:23 > 0:21:31people still appreciate former President Mugabe for what he did.Of
0:21:31 > 0:21:36course we must accept that he also made mistakes in his later years but
0:21:36 > 0:21:42for what he did in the early years of independence, the education he
0:21:42 > 0:21:47introduced, and everything that he did for the black majority will
0:21:47 > 0:21:53always be remembered.But it happened quickly, not a telling off,
0:21:53 > 0:21:58was this a fear of Grace Mugabe? Know I think what happened, Mugabe
0:21:58 > 0:22:01did retain significant support on the ground but because the process
0:22:01 > 0:22:09of his removal has been militarised, many of the MPs who went out to cast
0:22:09 > 0:22:13the impeachment vote were told to do so by the Army.They were worried
0:22:13 > 0:22:19that the wife would take over? All these quotes like democracy is not
0:22:19 > 0:22:22sexually transmitted and all these placards people held up in the
0:22:22 > 0:22:28streets. Is this a misogyny, what kind of people can put up with a
0:22:28 > 0:22:32dictator who commits God knows what kind of atrocities for 30 years and
0:22:32 > 0:22:43more and then says no to the wife? Zanu PF is an institution and it has
0:22:43 > 0:22:49a way of doing things and the way the wife was now doing things is
0:22:49 > 0:22:54contrary to what Zanu PF has always been. Everything that the wife was
0:22:54 > 0:23:01doing is against the principles that we believe in as Zanu PF, against
0:23:01 > 0:23:08the constitution of the PF itself. And you can get away with it if you
0:23:08 > 0:23:11are asked someone who has liberated the country but she did not and that
0:23:11 > 0:23:13was part of it.Thank you all very much.
0:23:13 > 0:23:15Well, tomorrow it's Phillip Hammond's turn to use
0:23:15 > 0:23:17long, economicky words.
0:23:17 > 0:23:19He may choose, however, to keep tomorrow's budget simple.
0:23:19 > 0:23:21His task is to ease austerity with what little money
0:23:21 > 0:23:23he has at his disposal.
0:23:23 > 0:23:27And to sound less gloomy about Brexit than he may be feeling.
0:23:27 > 0:23:29The chancellor will announce an education package of around
0:23:29 > 0:23:32£177 million to promote maths skills - part of a drive towards
0:23:32 > 0:23:35productivity and learning - as well as a little bit more
0:23:35 > 0:23:36for teacher training.
0:23:36 > 0:23:39Perhaps the hardest challenge for the government right now
0:23:39 > 0:23:42is working out how to bring young people, voting in their droves
0:23:42 > 0:23:44for Corbyn at the last election, into the Conservative fold.
0:23:44 > 0:23:51Here's Chris Cook.
0:23:51 > 0:23:54As we've got closer and closer to finding out what's
0:23:54 > 0:23:56in the Chancellor's red box, it's become clearer and clearer
0:23:56 > 0:24:03that the space he has to wield it has shrunk and shrunk.
0:24:03 > 0:24:06His last budget in March was hardly a giveaway to begin with.
0:24:06 > 0:24:09Since then, though, his options haven't improved.
0:24:09 > 0:24:11Economists worry in particular about something that they refer
0:24:11 > 0:24:14to as "head rooom".
0:24:14 > 0:24:16That's the term they give to the amount of money
0:24:16 > 0:24:19that the Chancellor has on hand without needing to raise taxes that
0:24:19 > 0:24:23can be put towards spending increases or tax cuts or coping
0:24:23 > 0:24:28with unforeseen events.
0:24:28 > 0:24:31The problem that Philip Hammond has going into this budget
0:24:31 > 0:24:34is that the amount of head room he thought he has has been
0:24:34 > 0:24:38massively decreased.
0:24:38 > 0:24:43This former OBR economist explains what's happened.
0:24:43 > 0:24:45The single biggest problem that the Chancellor is facing
0:24:45 > 0:24:51is that productivity is not growing as fast as it once did.
0:24:51 > 0:24:54We're not getting more efficient at producing things and this means
0:24:54 > 0:24:56the economy is going to grow more slowly in the future
0:24:56 > 0:24:58than it has in the past.
0:24:58 > 0:25:01And this means there will be less money to spend because tax revenue
0:25:01 > 0:25:02will be slower as well.
0:25:02 > 0:25:05Productivity is a long-term problem.
0:25:05 > 0:25:09Back in 2010 the OBR had to forecast what they thought would happen to it
0:25:09 > 0:25:12and so they assumed it would just rise.
0:25:12 > 0:25:15But it didn't.
0:25:15 > 0:25:18This is where we were by late 2013.
0:25:18 > 0:25:20Productivity growth had stalled.
0:25:20 > 0:25:23And what did the OBR forecast say then?
0:25:23 > 0:25:26Well, it predicted productivity growth was just around the corner.
0:25:26 > 0:25:29But it wasn't.
0:25:29 > 0:25:38This is where we thought we were at this last March budget.
0:25:38 > 0:25:41The forecast once again was, it's just about to take off.
0:25:41 > 0:25:42And guess what, that was wrong, too.
0:25:42 > 0:25:44With big consequences for the Chancellor.
0:25:44 > 0:25:47The Chancellor has a target.
0:25:47 > 0:25:51And last time at the budget he had about £26 billion of head room
0:25:51 > 0:25:54against that target in the year 2020 - 2021.
0:25:54 > 0:25:57Now because growth is slower, this means he has much less head
0:25:57 > 0:26:04room against that target, probably only around £13 billion.
0:26:04 > 0:26:07£13 billion of head room is a lot of money, but it could easily be
0:26:07 > 0:26:10eaten by future downgrades.
0:26:10 > 0:26:15And a large slug of it could go into one public
0:26:15 > 0:26:17spending line in particular.
0:26:17 > 0:26:19The government has already pencilled in 2.5 billion extra cash
0:26:19 > 0:26:21for the NHS next year.
0:26:21 > 0:26:24But that really is just to keep in line with inflation.
0:26:24 > 0:26:26We estimate that on top of that the NHS will
0:26:26 > 0:26:28need another 4 billion.
0:26:28 > 0:26:31And that is to keep up with the demand for NHS services,
0:26:31 > 0:26:38so effectively the increasing level of patients coming in to the system.
0:26:38 > 0:26:40Last week Simon Stephens, the NHS England chief executive,
0:26:40 > 0:26:46called for Vote Leave's promises of extra NHS cash to be honoured.
0:26:46 > 0:26:50By the end of the next financial year for the NHS, March 2019,
0:26:50 > 0:26:55the United Kingdom will have left the European Union.
0:26:55 > 0:26:59Trust in democratic politics will not be strengthened
0:26:59 > 0:27:02if anyone now tries to argue, you voted Brexit partly for a better
0:27:02 > 0:27:04funded health service, but precisely because of Brexit,
0:27:04 > 0:27:09you now can't have one.
0:27:09 > 0:27:11Without extra money, the health and social care system
0:27:11 > 0:27:18faces further degradation in care quality and waiting times.
0:27:18 > 0:27:24But the Chancellor's slim room for manoeuvre means it will be hard
0:27:24 > 0:27:30for him to find very much NHS cash without tax rises.
0:27:30 > 0:27:36Nick Watt has had his nose to the ground much of the week.
0:27:36 > 0:27:40What are you sniffing out? This is one of the key moment since the
0:27:40 > 0:27:43general election and Philip Hammond tomorrow must reach out to those
0:27:43 > 0:27:50under the age of 50 who preferred label -- preferred Labour. But it
0:27:50 > 0:27:55got off to a scrappy start, one of the dullest press releases ever
0:27:55 > 0:28:00previewing the budget, talking about was all to embrace change was a
0:28:00 > 0:28:02vastly less exciting than the quite interesting interviews Philip
0:28:02 > 0:28:07Hammond did at the weekend on BBC and the Sunday Times and then two
0:28:07 > 0:28:13hours later a more interesting press release, talking about a £42 million
0:28:13 > 0:28:17investment in teacher training in deprived areas and £177 million
0:28:17 > 0:28:22investment in the maths teaching for the Treasury sources said that there
0:28:22 > 0:28:25will be plums tomorrow and you heard from Chris Cook about how the
0:28:25 > 0:28:29Chancellor has little room for manoeuvre. There is a feeling that
0:28:29 > 0:28:33things have looked a bit better in the last month or so, the Eurozone
0:28:33 > 0:28:37bouncing up which is good for the UK and that will help tax revenues and
0:28:37 > 0:28:40productivity which was looking dreadful now ticking up a little
0:28:40 > 0:28:48bit.More broadly where is he going on spending?The key thing is this
0:28:48 > 0:28:53head room. He had £26 billion in March and now just below £10
0:28:53 > 0:28:57billion. What is interesting is that because this is the first fiscal
0:28:57 > 0:29:02event since the general election, this will make in what was a change
0:29:02 > 0:29:05at the general election so in the general election the Tories said
0:29:05 > 0:29:10they would balance the budget with no deficit by the middle of the next
0:29:10 > 0:29:15decade. Before that at the time of the Autumn Statement it was 21, 22
0:29:15 > 0:29:20so what that does is give the Chancellor another three or four
0:29:20 > 0:29:24years to spend the difference between what is the borrowing target
0:29:24 > 0:29:29of 2% of national income by the end of the decade and the balance of the
0:29:29 > 0:29:33budget, spending the difference between 2% and 0% for three or four
0:29:33 > 0:29:36years.
0:29:36 > 0:29:38Budgets by their very nature tweak and tease -
0:29:38 > 0:29:40one constituency of people feel a little better,
0:29:40 > 0:29:41another a little worse.
0:29:41 > 0:29:44But what if we need to radically reshape our economy into something
0:29:44 > 0:29:49that picks up the disenfranchised in our society?
0:29:49 > 0:29:51Those who, bluntly put, sometimes barely have enough to eat.
0:29:51 > 0:29:53We report tonight from Middlesbrough,
0:29:53 > 0:29:54and from a part of that town
0:29:54 > 0:29:57where house prices are amongst the lowest in the country -
0:29:57 > 0:30:07£49,000 on average in 2017, having fallen by 47% since 2007.
0:30:15 > 0:30:18I've lived here for 15 years.
0:30:18 > 0:30:19The area's just gone down.
0:30:19 > 0:30:22Loads of gangs round here, and just the community,
0:30:22 > 0:30:26it's not how it used to be.
0:30:26 > 0:30:31The house prices are, like, going down in this area.
0:30:31 > 0:30:37There's not that much increase in wages.
0:30:37 > 0:30:42So, people, like the general public's buying power has gone down.
0:30:42 > 0:30:44You run out of cash, you run out of food.
0:30:44 > 0:30:54And that's the end of it.
0:31:02 > 0:31:05It makes me feel a bit sad, because I know
0:31:05 > 0:31:10I'm leaving in a week.
0:31:10 > 0:31:12And it's been my home for, like, 14 years.
0:31:12 > 0:31:15So, I do feel like a bit of an ending is coming, really.
0:31:15 > 0:31:19So, I've had my house up for sale for a while, I'm wanting to move
0:31:19 > 0:31:22because the area has gone really downhill and is quite deprived now.
0:31:22 > 0:31:23And property, houses, are dropping quite rapidly.
0:31:23 > 0:31:25Well, you don't need that.
0:31:25 > 0:31:27All right, bin that.
0:31:27 > 0:31:30We've got people who are dealing drugs on the street,
0:31:30 > 0:31:33there's a lot more different cultured people and with different
0:31:33 > 0:31:36morals, different...
0:31:36 > 0:31:40Erm, nobody working, people up all night play music loud.
0:31:40 > 0:31:43And my house has been burgled and I don't particularly feel safe
0:31:43 > 0:31:45any more when I live by myself on this street.
0:31:45 > 0:31:47You don't need sun lotion.
0:31:47 > 0:31:50No, but it's brand-new that, I don't want to bin it.
0:31:50 > 0:31:51Keep it for next year.
0:31:51 > 0:31:54It's just when she rings me at night time and says there's
0:31:54 > 0:31:55a fight outside the door.
0:31:55 > 0:31:58She's scared and I just say stay in and lock the door.
0:31:58 > 0:32:01I can't even say come to my house because she
0:32:01 > 0:32:02wouldn't dare go outside.
0:32:02 > 0:32:05I have a good wage, I make a lot of extra money that either
0:32:05 > 0:32:07gets took off me in tax.
0:32:07 > 0:32:10I also have then that increase that the government takes
0:32:10 > 0:32:11more off me in pension.
0:32:11 > 0:32:13More off me in student loan.
0:32:13 > 0:32:16And all my other bills leave me with not very much money.
0:32:16 > 0:32:20I do like to have a good life and to do nice things
0:32:20 > 0:32:22with my friends, to travel, to go out for meals.
0:32:22 > 0:32:24But I can't always keep up with everyone because I
0:32:24 > 0:32:29just can't afford it.
0:32:29 > 0:32:32The business, it's quite a few reasons, the corner
0:32:32 > 0:32:35shops are going down and down every year.
0:32:35 > 0:32:37Everybody is asking like cheaper, cheaper stuff,
0:32:37 > 0:32:44do you sell cheap bread?
0:32:44 > 0:32:47If somebody comes in, do you sell any cheap cigarettes?
0:32:47 > 0:32:48When are you moving, then?
0:32:48 > 0:32:49So, I'm moving next Wednesday.
0:32:49 > 0:32:50Have you sold the house?
0:32:50 > 0:32:53I've nearly sold it, it's under offer, but I'm just hoping,
0:32:53 > 0:32:56because if it falls through then I don't know what I'm going to do.
0:32:56 > 0:32:58It's very hard to sell the properties over here.
0:32:58 > 0:33:02I've got the house over the road and I put the lodgers in,
0:33:02 > 0:33:04I haven't received the rent since last four months.
0:33:04 > 0:33:05That's terrible.
0:33:05 > 0:33:06And I'm struggling now.
0:33:06 > 0:33:07You can't afford it, can you?
0:33:07 > 0:33:08No.
0:33:08 > 0:33:10Four months I haven't received anything yet.
0:33:10 > 0:33:14I work seven days.
0:33:14 > 0:33:20And about 13 to 14 hours a day.
0:33:20 > 0:33:23And if you count the hours over the week or month,
0:33:23 > 0:33:24I don't have any break.
0:33:24 > 0:33:28For years and years.
0:33:28 > 0:33:33At the end of the day I don't even get minimum wage.
0:33:33 > 0:33:37How long can you work for 14 hours a day and all week?
0:33:37 > 0:33:39I think nobody does.
0:33:39 > 0:33:40You can't.
0:33:40 > 0:33:42No.
0:33:42 > 0:33:46And it's only me.
0:33:46 > 0:33:50I'm constantly thinking about money, I'm constantly doing
0:33:50 > 0:33:52spreadsheets to work out how I'm going to pay my bills.
0:33:52 > 0:33:54I'm always on the phone setting up payment plans,
0:33:54 > 0:33:56asking for help with stuff.
0:33:56 > 0:34:05And I'm quite a proud person, and I don't like that.
0:34:12 > 0:34:14The community has gone down, hasn't it?
0:34:14 > 0:34:15It's not the same any more.
0:34:15 > 0:34:17I'm just hanging my coat up.
0:34:17 > 0:34:19I would never let him out at all.
0:34:19 > 0:34:20What happened the other week?
0:34:20 > 0:34:25You said you got robbed?
0:34:25 > 0:34:35Well, there was two bikes outside.
0:34:35 > 0:34:37And the thieves must have pushed the gate.
0:34:37 > 0:34:39Right.
0:34:39 > 0:34:42Does it feel safe round here at night?
0:34:42 > 0:34:52No.
0:34:52 > 0:34:56When the food runs out, I'll start crying and then
0:34:56 > 0:34:58I'll ask my daughter, hopefully she'll have something
0:34:58 > 0:35:02for me, or my son.
0:35:02 > 0:35:05My eldest son.
0:35:05 > 0:35:11At the moment, struggling a lot.
0:35:11 > 0:35:14With being on universal credit, erm, and the way
0:35:14 > 0:35:18they actually deal with you.
0:35:18 > 0:35:26It's all over the phone or online, job coaches.
0:35:26 > 0:35:31Since 2008, I lost a lot of my family through bereavement,
0:35:31 > 0:35:36and that's what caused my depression and anxiety.
0:35:36 > 0:35:45And I've been on a downward spiral ever since, basically.
0:35:47 > 0:35:49I am struggling, to be fair.
0:35:49 > 0:35:52Just love to work.
0:35:52 > 0:35:55To...
0:35:55 > 0:35:58Just to get a better life for him.
0:35:58 > 0:36:01Erm...
0:36:01 > 0:36:05You know, better schooling, better whatever.
0:36:05 > 0:36:08But at the moment with me, I can't because I have to care for him.
0:36:08 > 0:36:12I'm his carer - as well as his parent, I'm his carer.
0:36:12 > 0:36:15So, it's very difficult.
0:36:15 > 0:36:19Just want a nicer life for my son round here.
0:36:19 > 0:36:21Well, not round here per se, but somewhere nice.
0:36:21 > 0:36:26Nic-ER.
0:36:26 > 0:36:30Nicer environment, nicer area.
0:36:30 > 0:36:34I never ask for help, I never have done, never will.
0:36:34 > 0:36:37But now I think it's coming to that stage where I do need help.
0:36:37 > 0:36:38So...
0:36:38 > 0:36:43And I need to ask for it, really.
0:36:51 > 0:36:53I worked all my life since the age of 16.
0:36:53 > 0:36:55Erm...
0:36:55 > 0:36:59To not work now is...
0:36:59 > 0:37:01Basically I feel it's the end of my life now.
0:37:01 > 0:37:06I feel like it's over.
0:37:06 > 0:37:10A lot of the time I just want to lie down, I prefer not to wake up
0:37:10 > 0:37:12when I go to sleep on a night.
0:37:12 > 0:37:13But I do.
0:37:13 > 0:37:15And I'm a survivor and I keep fighting.
0:37:15 > 0:37:17And keep going.
0:37:17 > 0:37:21But it's not nice, it's not.
0:37:21 > 0:37:22I haven't got the motivation.
0:37:22 > 0:37:26I want to go back to work.
0:37:26 > 0:37:31I really do, because I can't live like this.
0:37:31 > 0:37:34I don't know how people have done it for years, I really don't.
0:37:34 > 0:37:41It's really bad.
0:37:41 > 0:37:44Let's pick up some of those concerns with Torsten Bell,
0:37:44 > 0:37:52from the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank.
0:37:52 > 0:37:56And when you look at that kind of struggle, weather it's a woman
0:37:56 > 0:37:59talking about food running out or someone saying they have never had
0:37:59 > 0:38:03to ask for help but then again I have to now. The shopkeeper talking
0:38:03 > 0:38:07about those 14 hour days on less than the minimum wage - is there
0:38:07 > 0:38:10anything the Chancellor can start to do tomorrow that addresses trouble
0:38:10 > 0:38:16is on that scale?Obviously, hearing the stories brings to life some of
0:38:16 > 0:38:19the statistics you see about the cost of living crisis and how people
0:38:19 > 0:38:25feel in Britain today. But the big picture over quite some years is
0:38:25 > 0:38:29that Britain's population as a whole, not just the extreme end of
0:38:29 > 0:38:32this, are in a serious living standards squeeze the likes of which
0:38:32 > 0:38:37none of us have seen in living memory. And at the lower end of the
0:38:37 > 0:38:41income distribution that is felt very severely, people being squeezed
0:38:41 > 0:38:45who already have very little income and people being pushed into the
0:38:45 > 0:38:49summer the situations we heard about there. That is when some people say
0:38:49 > 0:38:52this is an unprecedented period in British history for people at the
0:38:52 > 0:38:57heart end of that it is really severe.Because there's so much
0:38:57 > 0:39:04emphasis on the house-building side of things, on Theresa May wanting to
0:39:04 > 0:39:07be remembered as the builder and yet if you take many parts of the
0:39:07 > 0:39:12country, not just Middlesbrough, house prices declining there, there
0:39:12 > 0:39:15is even marry oversupply there. The problem of the lack of housing is
0:39:15 > 0:39:21very much in the south of England? We need to be careful about that.
0:39:21 > 0:39:24What is technically true is that we are focusing on what will raise
0:39:24 > 0:39:28living standards in different parts of the country. So in Birmingham
0:39:28 > 0:39:31it's about unemployment and a labour market disaster. In Sheffield it's
0:39:31 > 0:39:36low pay. In London it is acutely housing. But let's be clear, housing
0:39:36 > 0:39:40is a problem right across the country. If we look at how much of
0:39:40 > 0:39:43our income as a population we are spending on housing, it has troubled
0:39:43 > 0:39:49over the last 50 years. Housing is a problem everywhere, homeownership is
0:39:49 > 0:39:53falling in the north-east, not as fast as it is in parts of London but
0:39:53 > 0:39:56it is falling. And housing costs have risen very significantly, even
0:39:56 > 0:40:01in the north-east as a whole.What about the whole idea of right to
0:40:01 > 0:40:05buy, in that case?On housing the problem has been building at least
0:40:05 > 0:40:08since the 19th 80s and it is a disgrace that we haven't focused on
0:40:08 > 0:40:16that. We put up with it because house prices were rising and we put
0:40:16 > 0:40:19up with it because homeownership was still high and incomes were growing.
0:40:19 > 0:40:22Now, we've got falling homeownership and incomes being squeezed.This is
0:40:22 > 0:40:27where the government has pledged to put their attention and their money
0:40:27 > 0:40:32now. But the problem politically, if you will allow, for the Chancellor
0:40:32 > 0:40:36tomorrow, is how to pull in all these young people that don't find
0:40:36 > 0:40:42the Conservatives a very sexy brand any more, if they did. And how does
0:40:42 > 0:40:47he do that? It's not going to be through rail cards, is it? It's not
0:40:47 > 0:40:52going to be through...The rail cards are no use either politically
0:40:52 > 0:40:56or substantively. They may be a nice thing to have. The bigger picture
0:40:56 > 0:40:59with young people today, substantively, is not just that they
0:40:59 > 0:41:04can't get a house, the problem is that their wages ask wheat in a way
0:41:04 > 0:41:09that we've not seen, they had a 9% pay squeeze during the financial
0:41:09 > 0:41:13crisis, more than any other age group. We've seen the fastest rising
0:41:13 > 0:41:17housing costs and is now getting less for that. Addressing that is
0:41:17 > 0:41:20what substantively the Chancellor needs to do, and actually that will
0:41:20 > 0:41:24matter politically. It will show young people that he is focusing on
0:41:24 > 0:41:27their concerns and secondly weather you are young or not you know that
0:41:27 > 0:41:32this intergenerational question is a big question facing the country.
0:41:32 > 0:41:34Grandparents and parents want these problems are addressed for the sake
0:41:34 > 0:41:38of the country not just for the sake of the young people.These are not
0:41:38 > 0:41:42normal times. Is there anything you're expecting the Chancellor to
0:41:42 > 0:41:46do tomorrow? Will it be rolling back Universal Credit, will it be
0:41:46 > 0:41:49something dramatic, pushing that whole idea away, which will...?What
0:41:49 > 0:41:54the Chancellor should do is get on with building houses. He should
0:41:54 > 0:41:57reverse the cuts to benefits which are coming over the next few years
0:41:57 > 0:42:02which will hit young people in their 30s just as they are entering the
0:42:02 > 0:42:05expensive early childcare phase of their lives. That might start
0:42:05 > 0:42:08looking like we're focusing on real problems.Thank you very much for
0:42:08 > 0:42:11coming in.
0:42:11 > 0:42:14That's all we've got time for this evening, but before we go,
0:42:14 > 0:42:16seasoned Newsnight viewers will know that some of the most effective
0:42:16 > 0:42:19politicians are able to pivot, seamlessly, from the topic you ask
0:42:19 > 0:42:22them about to the topic they really want to talk about.
0:42:22 > 0:42:23Thatcher, Mandelson, Clegg, they all did it.
0:42:23 > 0:42:27But we think Australian MP Bob Katter might have taken it a bit
0:42:27 > 0:42:29far when asked about the country's recent referendum on equal marriage.
0:42:29 > 0:42:30Good night.
0:42:30 > 0:42:33Final, final observation on the same-sex marriage
0:42:33 > 0:42:36debate from Bob Katter.
0:42:36 > 0:42:42I mean, you know, people are entitled to their sexual
0:42:42 > 0:42:43proclivities, you know!
0:42:43 > 0:42:45I mean, let there be a thousand blossoms bloom,
0:42:45 > 0:42:48as far as I'm concerned!
0:42:48 > 0:42:51But I ain't spending any time on it, because in the meantime,
0:42:51 > 0:42:54every three months, a person is torn to pieces by a crocodile
0:42:54 > 0:42:57in North Queensland.
0:42:57 > 0:42:57in North Queensland.