0:00:08 > 0:00:10You got through series one - the divorce deal.
0:00:10 > 0:00:12Now get ready to enjoy the full boxed set.
0:00:12 > 0:00:19The Brexit trade talks that'll be preoccupying us through 2018.
0:00:19 > 0:00:22He asked about the trade deal, about Ceta plus, plus, plus.
0:00:22 > 0:00:25We've always said that we're not looking for a deal that's Norway
0:00:25 > 0:00:27and we're not looking for a deal that's Ceta.
0:00:27 > 0:00:29If you're struggling with Ceta, Efta, and Norway minus,
0:00:29 > 0:00:31fear not, we're on top of it.
0:00:31 > 0:00:36With both expert and political views, we'll look ahead
0:00:36 > 0:00:39to where the talks will go, and ask if the EU will give
0:00:39 > 0:00:40us a choice anyway.
0:00:40 > 0:00:42Also tonight, we visit the Essex town of Tilbury.
0:00:42 > 0:00:45A port built on the back of trade - what does it tell us
0:00:45 > 0:00:50about where we are now and where Britain is heading?
0:00:50 > 0:00:55It does annoy me the fact that how much wealth the port has actually
0:00:55 > 0:01:00brought into the country, how has that wealth trickled down into the
0:01:00 > 0:01:01town?
0:01:01 > 0:01:03And is Britain suffering an epidemic of loneliness?
0:01:03 > 0:01:13We'll hear how it feels and ask how we might help.
0:01:18 > 0:01:19Hello.
0:01:19 > 0:01:21If you thought voting for Brexit meant you'd hear
0:01:21 > 0:01:24no more about Europe, look away now, because there
0:01:24 > 0:01:25is still lots to talk about.
0:01:25 > 0:01:27First, this morning, we still didn't know
0:01:27 > 0:01:29whether we had really resolved phase one of the talks -
0:01:29 > 0:01:32the divorce terms.
0:01:32 > 0:01:34It looked sorted on Friday, then there were conflicting
0:01:34 > 0:01:36interpretations of what we'd all signed up to.
0:01:36 > 0:01:38That storm has been been calmed.
0:01:38 > 0:01:40But then secondly, there is what to expect from phase two,
0:01:40 > 0:01:45the trade part of the talks.
0:01:45 > 0:01:47We know Britain wants a deep and special relationship
0:01:47 > 0:01:50with the EU, but quite what that looks like we don't yet know.
0:01:50 > 0:01:53This afternoon, the Prime Minister was in the Commons to show she can
0:01:53 > 0:01:56carve a path on phases one and two, that will reconcile
0:01:56 > 0:01:58all competing views.
0:01:58 > 0:01:59Did she succeed?
0:01:59 > 0:02:06Nick Watt reports.
0:02:06 > 0:02:12It's that chilly time of year when we are reminded of some eternal
0:02:12 > 0:02:17human truths, it's freezing out there, but in that blanket of snow,
0:02:17 > 0:02:23you can see uniformity or on closer inspection, the endless variety of
0:02:23 > 0:02:27nature. In the new world of seemingly permanent protests, Tory
0:02:27 > 0:02:31MPs have been voicing widely divergent views on Brexit, but
0:02:31 > 0:02:37today, they spoke almost as one.May I first of all, congratulate the
0:02:37 > 0:02:46Prime Minister on her triumph last Friday...Here, here.Can I join my
0:02:46 > 0:02:52right honourable and learned friend in congratulating my right
0:02:52 > 0:02:57honourable friend in driving through an improved agreement on Friday
0:02:57 > 0:03:02against what many thought could not have been feasible.Today really was
0:03:02 > 0:03:06an illustration about old Harold Wilson cliche that a week is a long
0:03:06 > 0:03:11time in politics. So how did Theresa May go from humiliation in Brussels
0:03:11 > 0:03:16to widespread praise on her own benches. Well, the vast majority of
0:03:16 > 0:03:20Tory MPs want to give her space ahead of the EU summit in Brussels
0:03:20 > 0:03:26this week. I am also told that the crucial change in mood came over the
0:03:26 > 0:03:30weekend when Downing Street offered assurances to Euro-sceptics on one
0:03:30 > 0:03:35of their main concerns from last week's deal with the EU - this was
0:03:35 > 0:03:38that the offer on Northern Ireland could be used to smuggle the UK back
0:03:38 > 0:03:43into the single market. They were told this was not possible for one
0:03:43 > 0:03:48very simple reason: If the UK crashes out of the EU, with no deal
0:03:48 > 0:03:52at all, then the specific commitments on the Irish border will
0:03:52 > 0:03:58no longary ply. -- no longer apply. The text of this agreement now makes
0:03:58 > 0:04:03clear that in the event a deal Northern Ireland will not be
0:04:03 > 0:04:06separated politically, economically or by any regulatory requirements
0:04:06 > 0:04:10from the rest of the UK, along with the aim of no hard border on the
0:04:10 > 0:04:13island of Ireland. In the event of no deal, no overall deal, nothing is
0:04:13 > 0:04:20agreed.In Dublin, there was weary acceptance.The reality is that at
0:04:20 > 0:04:26any point in this process, events could very well intervened and
0:04:26 > 0:04:31could, you know, make the agreement politically impossible to deliver
0:04:31 > 0:04:38on. I think that's the big risk with all of this. You know, genuinely,
0:04:38 > 0:04:42all parties entered into an agreement that is considered to be
0:04:42 > 0:04:48absolutely, you know, iron clad, but in reality, political events in
0:04:48 > 0:04:51these uncertain times mean that nothing is really cast iron. It
0:04:51 > 0:04:56can't be.This week's mid-winter chill shows no signs of letting up.
0:04:56 > 0:05:02But Theresa May is benefitting from a thaw in relations within her own
0:05:02 > 0:05:06party, until the next Brexit challenge arises.
0:05:06 > 0:05:10Nick is here.
0:05:10 > 0:05:14Nick, this point that she managed to pacify this year on the part of the
0:05:14 > 0:05:17Brexiteers that Ireland was going to put us into the single market by the
0:05:17 > 0:05:21back door, what argument did she actually use?There was this hiccup
0:05:21 > 0:05:24yesterday when David Davis said that offer on the border with a statement
0:05:24 > 0:05:28of intent, he said that was much more than a legally enforceable
0:05:28 > 0:05:32thing. Dublin took fright at that. David Davis went on LBC today
0:05:32 > 0:05:36saying, yes, of course, I was saying it's a statement of intent and
0:05:36 > 0:05:40that's much bigger than the law because we're good friends. He said,
0:05:40 > 0:05:46of course it's elly enforceable. But crucially legally enforceable within
0:05:46 > 0:05:49the withdrawal agreement, Article 50. What that means, we were saying
0:05:49 > 0:05:55last week, is that the offer of full regulatory compliance with the UK
0:05:55 > 0:06:01with those elements related to the Northern Ireland-Irish Republic
0:06:01 > 0:06:06border, that third element is covered. Within Article 50 that is.
0:06:06 > 0:06:10If there's absolutely no deal, if we crash out with no deal -All bets
0:06:10 > 0:06:15are off.Those arrangements do not apply. At that point, are you down
0:06:15 > 0:06:18to a bilateral undertaking between the UK and the Irish Republic.We
0:06:18 > 0:06:23start again on that one. OK, that's phase one. Storm over, everything's
0:06:23 > 0:06:27calm. That means we look forward to phase two. The whole thing moves on
0:06:27 > 0:06:31now.We have the European Council this Thursday and Friday and we
0:06:31 > 0:06:36have, so far, the draft summit conclusions. That looks forward in
0:06:36 > 0:06:39two areas: First on transition. The Council suggests the UK says it
0:06:39 > 0:06:44wants to be for two years and the whole body of EU law would apply for
0:06:44 > 0:06:49two years. The UK view is that it should be an implementation period.
0:06:49 > 0:06:52Yes that body of law would apply from the beginning but eventually
0:06:52 > 0:06:57you move away from it and the beginnings of the hints of the
0:06:57 > 0:07:01restrictions that the UK will seek to apply to the UK for the future
0:07:01 > 0:07:04trade arrangements because the UK has decided to leave the customs
0:07:04 > 0:07:07union and the single market.The council is the big thing this week.
0:07:07 > 0:07:09Thanks a lot.
0:07:09 > 0:07:12Well, let's assume the big European council meeting this week goes well,
0:07:12 > 0:07:16that we move on to phase two of the talks.
0:07:16 > 0:07:18It can't be stressed enough that this is the issue
0:07:18 > 0:07:20which will define 2018.
0:07:20 > 0:07:22So far, the British Government has held its different
0:07:22 > 0:07:24factions together, by them all adhering to the goal
0:07:24 > 0:07:26of building a deep and special partnership - a bespoke deal
0:07:26 > 0:07:28specially for Britain. Not hard, not soft.
0:07:28 > 0:07:30Something different.
0:07:30 > 0:07:34It was set out in the Florence speech by Theresa May.
0:07:34 > 0:07:36Let us not seek merely to adopt a model already
0:07:36 > 0:07:45enjoyed by other countries - instead, let us be creative
0:07:45 > 0:07:47as well as practical, in designing an ambitious
0:07:47 > 0:07:49economic partnership that respects the freedoms and
0:07:49 > 0:07:51principles of the EU and the wishes of the British people.
0:07:51 > 0:07:55Everyone in the UK Government can sign up to that.
0:07:55 > 0:07:58But, if you listen carefully to what the EU says,
0:07:58 > 0:08:01they think it's more binary.
0:08:01 > 0:08:04For our partners there, the basic choice is you are either
0:08:04 > 0:08:06inside the EU single market, like Norway.
0:08:06 > 0:08:08Or you are just a so-called third country like Canada.
0:08:08 > 0:08:11You can have a trade deal, like Canada, but that's a long
0:08:11 > 0:08:14way from where we are.
0:08:14 > 0:08:17Those two existing models keep coming up -
0:08:17 > 0:08:20phrases from Michel Barnier, on the single market,
0:08:20 > 0:08:24such as, "Either you're in or you're out."
0:08:24 > 0:08:27Or, "Its integrity is non-negotiable",
0:08:27 > 0:08:32have been making this point.
0:08:32 > 0:08:43Or this: TRANSLATION:
0:08:43 > 0:08:45It will not be possible to combine the benefits
0:08:45 > 0:08:48of the Norway model with the weak constraints of the Canada model."
0:08:48 > 0:08:50Well, let's for a moment, imagine the EU means that.
0:08:50 > 0:08:52What do these two options imply?
0:08:52 > 0:08:55You can think of them as two ends of a spectrum in which you choose
0:08:55 > 0:08:58access to the EU market, or automony to set your own
0:08:58 > 0:08:59rules and regulations.
0:08:59 > 0:09:02Norway has lots of access to the EU market, but the condition
0:09:02 > 0:09:07for that is compliance with EU rules, including free movement.
0:09:07 > 0:09:09And paying in to the EU budget.
0:09:09 > 0:09:11For these reasons, Brexiteers - and our government -
0:09:11 > 0:09:13have ruled it out.
0:09:13 > 0:09:18It would mean paying the European Union billions of pounds every year
0:09:18 > 0:09:21in perpetuity. It would mean following EU rules with no say over
0:09:21 > 0:09:26them. It would mean no divergence from EU rules in the future
0:09:26 > 0:09:30whatsoever. It would mean zero control of immigration. I have to
0:09:30 > 0:09:35say to the right honourable gentleman that wouldn't make a
0:09:35 > 0:09:38success of Brexit, that would be no Brexit at all.
0:09:38 > 0:09:40So, if you don't like that, what about Canada?
0:09:40 > 0:09:44Now here is the Canada deal with the EU - CETA it is called.
0:09:44 > 0:09:46The EU Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement.
0:09:46 > 0:09:52So it has quite a bit of detail.
0:09:52 > 0:10:00If you look, for example, I take a page 155, article 20. 12, this is
0:10:00 > 0:10:04about parties may make laws against cam cording of movies in cinemas.
0:10:04 > 0:10:07That's the kind of detail it has.
0:10:07 > 0:10:10Because it has so much detail, no-one thinks you can negotiate one
0:10:10 > 0:10:13like this in a year, but you could kind of take
0:10:13 > 0:10:15this as the template, tipex out the word 'Canada',
0:10:15 > 0:10:17and replace it with the word UK.
0:10:17 > 0:10:19The advantage is we'd have more autonomy.
0:10:19 > 0:10:20This is the full-English proper Brexit.
0:10:20 > 0:10:23But on access to the EU market, it's not great for some
0:10:23 > 0:10:25of our key industries.
0:10:25 > 0:10:28And there is fact that you may still need a physical border -
0:10:28 > 0:10:31and we've pledged not to have one in Ireland.
0:10:31 > 0:10:35This Norway vs Canada choice is how the EU want us to look at this -
0:10:35 > 0:10:38they say we simply have to decide.
0:10:38 > 0:10:41But is it just possible we can get something better?
0:10:41 > 0:10:43That is what the government wants.
0:10:43 > 0:10:45Here's how David Davis described the trade deal the government
0:10:45 > 0:10:47is after.
0:10:47 > 0:10:51An overarching free trade deal, but including services, which Canada
0:10:51 > 0:10:55doesn't. With individual, specific arrangements for aviation, for
0:10:55 > 0:10:59nuclear, for data, a series of strands which we've worked out. Most
0:10:59 > 0:11:05of them based on where we start now. If the basic deal, I'm being crude
0:11:05 > 0:11:10about this, is Canada plus the city or something like that?Canada plus,
0:11:10 > 0:11:13plus, plus. We want a bespoke outcome. We will probably start with
0:11:13 > 0:11:20the best of can dark and the best of Japan -- Canada and the best of the
0:11:20 > 0:11:23Japan and South Korea and then add the services.
0:11:23 > 0:11:25He wants more trade than the Canadians have got -
0:11:25 > 0:11:28but does he want to align with EU rules to get it?
0:11:28 > 0:11:29And will the EU listen?
0:11:29 > 0:11:31Certainly they have offered special deals to other
0:11:31 > 0:11:33countries when they want to.
0:11:33 > 0:11:34To Ukraine, for example.
0:11:34 > 0:11:40And to Liechtenstein.
0:11:40 > 0:11:42With me now are two experts on all this.
0:11:42 > 0:11:44Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform.
0:11:44 > 0:11:46And Allie Renison, head of Europe and Trade Policy
0:11:46 > 0:11:53at the Institute of Directors.
0:11:53 > 0:11:58Which sectors, British sectors, if we went straight to the Canada deal,
0:11:58 > 0:12:00which British sectors would really suffer from that?I think when you
0:12:00 > 0:12:04look across the piece, the point about Canada is that it's
0:12:04 > 0:12:07effectively starting from a very different vantage point. The market
0:12:07 > 0:12:10access is nowhere near. They still have tariffs. They're not
0:12:10 > 0:12:14eliminated. Agriculture would be particularly hit. Financial services
0:12:14 > 0:12:19and services, professional services sectors whereby you would have under
0:12:19 > 0:12:23the Canadian deal have a local office in a European capital to
0:12:23 > 0:12:28access those markets.In access terms, I thought the goods makers,
0:12:28 > 0:12:32on the goods, I thought that was mostly sorted out on that, it was
0:12:32 > 0:12:37just the services that were a hold. The difference is if you are in the
0:12:37 > 0:12:41automotive sector you tend to rely on your ability, the vehicle
0:12:41 > 0:12:44certificate agency can issue approval for a car to be sold an
0:12:44 > 0:12:48marketed throughout the entirety of the EU. They have an agreement on
0:12:48 > 0:12:55what we call conformity assessment. You don't have that. That's the
0:12:55 > 0:12:58differentiator between Canada and Norway, you're not automatically
0:12:58 > 0:13:03downloading EU rules.But it's not acknowledged that their things are
0:13:03 > 0:13:08compliant either. In terms of a border, what's the system? I mean
0:13:08 > 0:13:10the Canadians have borders presumably, it's just more or less
0:13:10 > 0:13:14like at the at the moment?When goods leave Canada and come into the
0:13:14 > 0:13:18EU, they have to go through the customs controls on the edge of the
0:13:18 > 0:13:26customs union, yes.So, it doesn't help you at all on that. A lot of
0:13:26 > 0:13:29people are saying the Canada option will allow us to remove the physical
0:13:29 > 0:13:32border in Ireland?No, that's not right at all. There is a border
0:13:32 > 0:13:38between Canada and the US, although they're both in nafrta, have a Free
0:13:38 > 0:13:43Trade Agreement, they have a border. That's the gist of the difference.
0:13:43 > 0:13:48Canada plus, plus, plus. What would be the plus, plus, plus?I think
0:13:48 > 0:13:52even though we're not talking about completely replicated passporting
0:13:52 > 0:13:55for financial services, it is something along those lines. Very
0:13:55 > 0:13:58off the anyone trade agreements between different countries they
0:13:58 > 0:14:01don't tend to include anything substantial on financial services.
0:14:01 > 0:14:06You don't tend to have agriculture for example, included. In the Norway
0:14:06 > 0:14:08option the EEA doesn't really cover agriculture. That's something that's
0:14:08 > 0:14:11going to be critical to the Irish border. This is going to be
0:14:11 > 0:14:18different.Charles, can we, do you think they will offer us something
0:14:18 > 0:14:22in the middle? They keep saying it's Norway or Canada.They say it's
0:14:22 > 0:14:25Norway or Canada. The British will probably ask for something that is
0:14:25 > 0:14:30neither. We would almost be in the single market. We'd be aligned with
0:14:30 > 0:14:35EU rules. If we changed our rules we'd allow us to punish us a bit.
0:14:35 > 0:14:41Barnier will say no to that. I think we will get Canada plus, which means
0:14:41 > 0:14:44Canada as you describe, with services added in, not single
0:14:44 > 0:14:48market, but some access in aviation, financial services, data flows, well
0:14:48 > 0:14:52will have to -- we will have to pay a price. That will be taking the
0:14:52 > 0:14:56rules from the EU, paying money into the budget and taking something like
0:14:56 > 0:15:00the court of justice to tell us what to do.Do you agree with that?When
0:15:00 > 0:15:05you look at what the Swiss model, is I think there is some wriggle room.
0:15:05 > 0:15:08The Swiss aren't formal members of the single market, but they have
0:15:08 > 0:15:13pretty good access in terms of goods. What we're talking about to
0:15:13 > 0:15:17achieve that bespoke option is deep, unprecedented cooperation between
0:15:17 > 0:15:23the UK and EU.It is right to say you can have your autonomy or your
0:15:23 > 0:15:27access, as far as you take a bit more of one, but you lose another.
0:15:27 > 0:15:36We can have Canada plus if we pay a price for it.
0:15:36 > 0:15:37Let's turned to the politicians.
0:15:37 > 0:15:40With me in the studio is the former Tory MP, Peter Lilley,
0:15:40 > 0:15:43Conservative Brexiteer and a former president of the Board of Trade.
0:15:43 > 0:15:45He knows his way around these negotiations.
0:15:45 > 0:15:46And from Westminster, Labour's Chuka Umunna,
0:15:46 > 0:15:49who is chair of the All Party Parliamentary Group on EU Relations,
0:15:49 > 0:15:52and would really like us to remain within both the single market
0:15:52 > 0:15:55and the Customs Union.
0:15:55 > 0:16:01Good evening to you both. Peter Lilley, you would prefer Canada plus
0:16:01 > 0:16:08plus to Canada plus?I would prefer as few barriers as possible. It is
0:16:08 > 0:16:14in our interest, it is in Europe's interest. I don't think we will get
0:16:14 > 0:16:16maximum, optimum, because the European Union has made it clear
0:16:16 > 0:16:21they want us to appear at least to be worse off than we are at present.
0:16:21 > 0:16:27I find it difficult because actually are exporters have got a 15%
0:16:27 > 0:16:30advantage because of the exchange rate. They will have to pay 4%
0:16:30 > 0:16:36tariff if there is no deal at all. 15% outweighs 4% for most.You would
0:16:36 > 0:16:42prefer Canada to nothing, but you would prefer Canada plus. But you
0:16:42 > 0:16:46don't think they will give it to us. The British government position is
0:16:46 > 0:16:52they will give it to us.Maybe they know something I don't know. I
0:16:52 > 0:16:55merely listen to the European Union and take the at their word. We
0:16:55 > 0:16:59should be prepared for the probability that they want get
0:16:59 > 0:17:04nearly as much as they are seeking, and that quite possibly will end up
0:17:04 > 0:17:11trading on WTO terms, which is a good second best.Chuka Umunna, how
0:17:11 > 0:17:16much of a disaster, do you think, Canada would be? If we went
0:17:16 > 0:17:20something straight -- if you went straight to something like Canada.
0:17:20 > 0:17:24How bad would that be from your perspective?I think it would be
0:17:24 > 0:17:29pretty disastrous. It may be appropriate for a Canada, but we are
0:17:29 > 0:17:32the sixth biggest economy in the world and they are our biggest
0:17:32 > 0:17:36trading partner. My preference would be the Norway option. A fully to
0:17:36 > 0:17:40leave the European Union, which means we are -- we stay in the
0:17:40 > 0:17:44single market of the least. I would like to stay in the Customs Union as
0:17:44 > 0:17:48well. But the government has chosen to do away with that, which is the
0:17:48 > 0:17:52best option. The problem with Canada, first of all it took a long
0:17:52 > 0:17:56time to negotiate, up to seven years. Secondly, it doesn't cover
0:17:56 > 0:18:01services really. That is 80% of our economy. Thirdly, potentially you
0:18:01 > 0:18:04could have foreign investors and large multinationals suing the
0:18:04 > 0:18:09British government if they felt we were not opening up the public
0:18:09 > 0:18:17sector, the NHS in particular, to further marketisation. And I don't
0:18:17 > 0:18:19think any that is particularly attractive to the British people.
0:18:19 > 0:18:29It's just not appropriate. And us having an FTA Canada style FTA...
0:18:29 > 0:18:33Sorry, free trade agreement. That would preclude us from staying in
0:18:33 > 0:18:37the Customs Union. One of the parts of the agreement that was reached on
0:18:37 > 0:18:41Friday was that we should have a backstop position of being able to
0:18:41 > 0:18:46observe customs union and single market rules as a solution to the
0:18:46 > 0:18:50Northern Irish border.You said so much. I want to let Peter Lilley
0:18:50 > 0:18:56respond.Can I just knock on the head of this idea that because the
0:18:56 > 0:19:00Canadian agreement took eight years to negotiate, it would take a long
0:19:00 > 0:19:05time for us to negotiate something similar. The Canadians had ten
0:19:05 > 0:19:10different -- 10,000 different tariff lines. The EU have 15,000. They have
0:19:10 > 0:19:15to decide how rapidly they can be traded off against each other. They
0:19:15 > 0:19:18start off with 20,000 specifications for goods and services. They had to
0:19:18 > 0:19:25decide which to align. We start with zero tariffs. We want to end up with
0:19:25 > 0:19:31zero tariffs. Ten minutes. All we have to negotiate is a diversion is
0:19:31 > 0:19:37mechanism.Chuka Umunna, do you think there is any possibility of a
0:19:37 > 0:19:41Norway option that would allow any restriction are any kind of change
0:19:41 > 0:19:46to the free movement rules? Because that in many respects is seen as the
0:19:46 > 0:19:50true red line of the British voters. That is where your Norway option
0:19:50 > 0:19:58forms. They won't give you Norway but without free movement.Let's not
0:19:58 > 0:20:03forget free movement is a bit of a misleading phrase. It suggests that
0:20:03 > 0:20:07it's unconditional. Free movement is conditional. There are things we can
0:20:07 > 0:20:11do within the existing free movement framework to better restrict
0:20:11 > 0:20:15immigration. So, for example, the Belgians require people to register
0:20:15 > 0:20:20when they come to their country. They have been there for more than
0:20:20 > 0:20:23three months. We don't require people to do that. We could require
0:20:23 > 0:20:26people, if they have been here for three months, haven't been able to
0:20:26 > 0:20:30get work and don't have the prospect of work, we can require them to
0:20:30 > 0:20:34leave but we don't do that. Lichtenstein, which as the Norway
0:20:34 > 0:20:38option, as it were, it is part of the European free trade Association,
0:20:38 > 0:20:41they actually have called has applied to the numbers of EU
0:20:41 > 0:20:46immigrants they have come to their country. You can restrict it, yes.
0:20:46 > 0:20:51Charles Grant, do you think there is a possibility, if we are confronted
0:20:51 > 0:20:55with the stored -- stark choice, that they would say, you can have a
0:20:55 > 0:21:00Norway option but with a little bit of concession on free movement?One
0:21:00 > 0:21:03can fiddle with the margins of these details but the broad principle is
0:21:03 > 0:21:11we would have to accept free movement. EU believes these are
0:21:11 > 0:21:15insoluble in length and you can't have one without the other. That is
0:21:15 > 0:21:22an ideology for them.Peter Lilley, for the last year the government has
0:21:22 > 0:21:24hung the coalition of the Conservative Party together with
0:21:24 > 0:21:28this promise of a deep and special partnership. One wonders if as you
0:21:28 > 0:21:33suspect if it isn't going to be on offer, is that going to be difficult
0:21:33 > 0:21:39for the Conservative Party, or will we just comfortably Sablon Canada or
0:21:39 > 0:21:43WTO?It is not about the Conservative Party. It is about
0:21:43 > 0:21:47Britain. It would be better for Britain and Europe if we end up with
0:21:47 > 0:21:51what the government are aiming for. If we don't, it will be because the
0:21:51 > 0:21:55EU don't want it. The way the engineer that is by saying you can
0:21:55 > 0:22:02have free trade but on conditions you will be able to accept being
0:22:02 > 0:22:05Sub-Organist to the European Court of Justice or pay money. It would be
0:22:05 > 0:22:10some, nation of those three. And the British people voted against that.
0:22:10 > 0:22:16So we would be going back. It would be going back on Brexit.We are
0:22:16 > 0:22:20going to leave it there. I guess we will return to it in the future.
0:22:20 > 0:22:21Thank you all.
0:22:21 > 0:22:24Because as 2017 draws to a close, many pundits and commentators find
0:22:24 > 0:22:29themselves reflecting on how - yet again - they've been caught
0:22:29 > 0:22:33out by more political shocks and surprises.
0:22:33 > 0:22:37Keeping up with shifting public sentiments has not been easy.
0:22:37 > 0:22:41But Jack Shenker, a journalist and author, is currently working
0:22:41 > 0:22:46on a book which attempts to map out how the political terrain has
0:22:46 > 0:22:49shifted so dramatically, and he believes that part
0:22:49 > 0:22:52of the problem is that analysts look in the wrong places for answers.
0:22:52 > 0:22:54He spent several months in Tilbury in Essex,
0:22:54 > 0:22:56which sits within one of the most marginal parliamentary
0:22:56 > 0:22:57seats in the country.
0:22:57 > 0:23:00He thinks that if you understand Tilbury, you probably
0:23:00 > 0:23:01understand Britain.
0:23:01 > 0:23:10So we asked him to make a film about it, for us.
0:23:10 > 0:23:22Come on.It's much excitement of seeing the pigeons home. -- come
0:23:22 > 0:23:29home. Pigeons first. More football! As my wife said, pigeons or football
0:23:29 > 0:23:38first. The kids, grandchildren. Anything else?No! Charlie Lawrence
0:23:38 > 0:23:43is always gone back to Tilbury, a small dog town in Essex on the banks
0:23:43 > 0:23:46of the River Thames, 20 miles east of central London. He has lived here
0:23:46 > 0:23:51in the same council house for 50 years.I have lived in Tilbury my
0:23:51 > 0:23:57life. I love Tilbury. I walk out of here, go down this road, don't go
0:23:57 > 0:24:00down that street and everybody would be like, hello Charlie. A real
0:24:00 > 0:24:12community.Charlie knows Tilbury better than anyone. He takes me on a
0:24:12 > 0:24:17tour of the -- but the town he grew up in is now almost unrecognisable.
0:24:17 > 0:24:23That there is the fire station in front of you.And that has closed
0:24:23 > 0:24:27down?That has been shut a few years. On the left as you go round
0:24:27 > 0:24:31here, the blue and grey building, that is the police station. That is
0:24:31 > 0:24:38now shut. The railway pub used to have good entertainment every night.
0:24:38 > 0:24:48Now it is completely shut. Waiting to be bombed out.Most of the spaces
0:24:48 > 0:24:54that once glued this community together have disappeared. Today, a
0:24:54 > 0:24:58private martial arts Academy is one of the few places young people can
0:24:58 > 0:25:03gather indoors. Although this too could be earmarked for closure.It's
0:25:03 > 0:25:07the social life really. They are not a lot of the pubs down. That was a
0:25:07 > 0:25:12big part of Tilbury. I think that is what caused everybody to be so
0:25:12 > 0:25:17close-knit, being able to socialise in your own town.David Gold is
0:25:17 > 0:25:22ranked 15th in the country for a kick boxing. And he is intensely
0:25:22 > 0:25:27proud of his hometown.I was a Jack the Lad, to be honest. I used to be
0:25:27 > 0:25:33wheeling and dealing. Tilbury has got quite a bad name for itself. In
0:25:33 > 0:25:36terms of theft and crime and stuff like that. But unless you are
0:25:36 > 0:25:44actually from here, you don't know this. It is all hearsay.Tilbury has
0:25:44 > 0:25:50a chequered reputation. In 1980, the sun newspaper ran an inflammatory
0:25:50 > 0:25:53spread headlined aggro Britain, which describes the town has a
0:25:53 > 0:25:57great, desolate place, where local skinheads roam the dark land like
0:25:57 > 0:26:01Kruppke rats. More recently, the Economist magazine introduced
0:26:01 > 0:26:08residents as a polyp of hard of mostly white people with a deep and
0:26:08 > 0:26:12justified sense of inferiority. David feels his town has been
0:26:12 > 0:26:15misrepresented and he is determined to show a different face of Tilbury
0:26:15 > 0:26:20to the world.Next year I am hoping to hit the top and take my team with
0:26:20 > 0:26:26me and put this town on the map, big-time.
0:26:26 > 0:26:31But Tilbury was once on the map, known far and wide as one of the
0:26:31 > 0:26:36country's most important connection points to the rest of the planet.
0:26:36 > 0:26:40Some of Britain's greatest historic milestones unfolded here, including
0:26:40 > 0:26:46the landing of the Ampara Windrush. Why have you come touring and?To
0:26:46 > 0:26:53seek a job. Any type so long as I get good pay. -- why if you come to
0:26:53 > 0:26:58England? I first started reporting from
0:26:58 > 0:27:03Tilbury in the autumn of 2016, against a backdrop of President
0:27:03 > 0:27:07Trump's election and the UK decision to leave the EU. It was clear then
0:27:07 > 0:27:12that the political landscape was changing fast beneath our feet.
0:27:12 > 0:27:16Tilbury, where the pro-Brexit vote was among the highest in the
0:27:16 > 0:27:23country, helped tell the story of that transformation.This is called
0:27:23 > 0:27:28the gateway to the world, Tilbury? So it is important, although it is a
0:27:28 > 0:27:32little bit downtrodden. And it does annoy me, the fact that how much
0:27:32 > 0:27:38wealth the port has actually brought into the country, how that wealth
0:27:38 > 0:27:42has trickled down into the town. This system of packing goods for a
0:27:42 > 0:27:48shipment into boxes is hugely efficient.I think it started in the
0:27:48 > 0:27:5460s. You had the electrification of the railway line. Once the line was
0:27:54 > 0:28:00electrified, you didn't need so many workers. The port became
0:28:00 > 0:28:06containerised. Therefore you didn't need so many dock workers. That is
0:28:06 > 0:28:11when it has been downhill ever since. Probably the same sort of
0:28:11 > 0:28:18feeling in mining villages.And yet Tilbury is not in northern mining
0:28:18 > 0:28:22village. It's the backstage of the capital and its port today is busier
0:28:22 > 0:28:27than ever. On paper at least this time should be a poster child for a
0:28:27 > 0:28:32certain model of global frictionless capitalism, sandwiched between the
0:28:32 > 0:28:37docks and the largest Amazon distribution centre in Europe. But
0:28:37 > 0:28:42in the past wealth has passed through Tilbury all too quickly,
0:28:42 > 0:28:51leaving resentment in its wake.I was born in Nigeria. Before I ever
0:28:51 > 0:28:57arrived in Tilbury, because I knew about the Empire Windrush Landing
0:28:57 > 0:29:02here, I feel like me being here, I feel privileged to be honest with
0:29:02 > 0:29:06you, to be a councillor in Tilbury. She is fiercely positive about her
0:29:06 > 0:29:12town. The Tilbury's two council wards are some of the most deprived
0:29:12 > 0:29:16in the region. She has faced white nationalist opposition at every
0:29:16 > 0:29:24election, even serving alongside the BMP.-- BMP. I think the BNP was the
0:29:24 > 0:29:32party of division. I am here because a majority of people in Tilbury
0:29:32 > 0:29:39don't think that way.Although the BMP appears to have been seen off
0:29:39 > 0:29:42here, more mainstream expressions of the popular strike continued to win
0:29:42 > 0:29:48support. Tilbury's Parliamentary constituency of Thurrock remains
0:29:48 > 0:29:52Ukip's top target seats nationwide. And the appeal of radical
0:29:52 > 0:29:58alternatives is not limited to one end of the political spectrum. With
0:29:58 > 0:30:01successive governments prioritising markets over communities, voters
0:30:01 > 0:30:08like Charlie have been searching for something, anything different.
0:30:08 > 0:30:12I would love him and Corbyn to run this country. They are straight
0:30:12 > 0:30:16down-the-line. There ain't no telling lies with them. They tell it
0:30:16 > 0:30:23how it is.Charlie's concerns at how Britain has changed economically are
0:30:23 > 0:30:27written onto the landscape here. As a young man, he helped build the
0:30:27 > 0:30:32stacks of the old power station. Recently, he watched them being torn
0:30:32 > 0:30:43down.Oh, look at that. Ah, look. Look at that. Well, well, well.
0:30:43 > 0:30:50Corr, look at that. Hardly any dust, look. My good God. Mate, that's it,
0:30:50 > 0:30:57end of an era.I worked there for 16 years. Met lots and lots of friends.
0:30:57 > 0:31:00Honestly, it was like one big family. It wasn't like going to
0:31:00 > 0:31:05work.Charlie is now helping to train agency workers to drive fork
0:31:05 > 0:31:09lift trucks at the new Amazon plant at the other side of town.Amazon
0:31:09 > 0:31:14won't be like a big family. It will be people will be working, leaving,
0:31:14 > 0:31:17working, leaving. I don't think you'll ever get people that will be
0:31:17 > 0:31:21working there for years, like we had here. Not just Amazon. That's
0:31:21 > 0:31:25everywhere. I don't really think youngsters deserve what they're
0:31:25 > 0:31:30getting now, you know. How can you have security? One minute you've got
0:31:30 > 0:31:34a job, the next minute, because it's all through agencies, you're there
0:31:34 > 0:31:41one minute, there another minute. Your 6-2 one day. 2-10 the next day,
0:31:41 > 0:31:49nights the next day. That's no good for people.For Dave, this sort of
0:31:49 > 0:31:53precarious existence is a reality which is already all too familiar.
0:31:53 > 0:31:59Yeah, I went for a few jobs, yeah. I couldn't find my comfort zone. They
0:31:59 > 0:32:04weren't permanent. They were zero hour contracts, because they just
0:32:04 > 0:32:08drop you in as and when they need you. There's no guarantee you're
0:32:08 > 0:32:10going to get the work. Sometimes you could be working three days out of
0:32:10 > 0:32:14the week. Sometimes you might not get work for a couple of weeks. I
0:32:14 > 0:32:18wanted something with a bit of meaning to it and actually have a
0:32:18 > 0:32:23purpose of being there, you know?As well as working and training, Dave
0:32:23 > 0:32:29has moved back into his childhood home to care for his father, who has
0:32:29 > 0:32:32parkin sons and is bed bound after a fall.It was hard to accept at
0:32:32 > 0:32:37first. I mean, my dad's always been fully independent. He's done all his
0:32:37 > 0:32:41own stuff his whole life. He's never really been one to ask for help or
0:32:41 > 0:32:45anything like that. I sit and look at him and see what he went from to
0:32:45 > 0:32:49where he's gone to now and it's really disheartening. It would have
0:32:49 > 0:32:55been nice to have an actual solid job, you know, whilst I had the
0:32:55 > 0:32:59rough times with my family, having the consistency, money constantly
0:32:59 > 0:33:02coming in and being able to take compassionate leave and stuff like
0:33:02 > 0:33:09that, it would have been nice. But I've dealt with it. I mean, I just
0:33:09 > 0:33:17take life as it throws it at me, you know.With the arrival of Amazon,
0:33:17 > 0:33:21Tilbury is clearly on the cusp of another economic leap forward. The
0:33:21 > 0:33:27question is whether the work on offer is here to stay. Up to 15
0:33:27 > 0:33:30million jobs in Britain are vulnerable to automation over the
0:33:30 > 0:33:35next two decades. Charlie's generation has already lived through
0:33:35 > 0:33:40one great era of mechanisation, which transformed the town
0:33:40 > 0:33:45completely. As another dawns, optimism here is tinged with fear
0:33:45 > 0:33:49that without a concerted effort to ensure its fruits are shared, life
0:33:49 > 0:33:58may only become more insecure. A certain vision of liberal modernity
0:33:58 > 0:34:01have transformed our political landscape in the process. Here,
0:34:01 > 0:34:05where the contradictions of that vision have been exposed most
0:34:05 > 0:34:08starkly, it's obvious that the old world is not coming back. What's
0:34:08 > 0:34:13less clear is in whose interests the new one is being built. Tilbury was
0:34:13 > 0:34:19once dismissed as a relic of the past. In reality, it's a window onto
0:34:19 > 0:34:27the future, one that will affect us all.
0:34:29 > 0:34:32We end up talking a lot about Brexit and the economy,
0:34:32 > 0:34:33as we've just demonstrated.
0:34:33 > 0:34:34Arguably, we should spend more time talking
0:34:34 > 0:34:36about things that really matter - like loneliness.
0:34:36 > 0:34:39The Labour MP, Rachel Reeves, co-chairwoman of the Jo Cox
0:34:39 > 0:34:41Loneliness Commission, has raised the issue, arguing that
0:34:41 > 0:34:48"in the last few decades, it has escalated from personal
0:34:48 > 0:34:51misfortune into a social epidemic".
0:34:51 > 0:34:54Something like half a million older people go at least five or six days
0:34:54 > 0:34:57a week without seeing or speaking to anyone at all.
0:34:57 > 0:35:00Here's a brief clip of a video made by the Campaign to
0:35:00 > 0:35:10End Loneliness, in which they asked a younger person
0:35:10 > 0:35:12Now, we might think it's not the sort of thing
0:35:12 > 0:35:16the government can do much about, but let us to talk to two people
0:35:16 > 0:35:17with different experiences of isolation or loneliness.
0:35:17 > 0:35:20I am joined by Sue Symth, who experienced loneliness
0:35:20 > 0:35:21following the death of her husband.
0:35:21 > 0:35:23And Becca Maberly, who started A Mother Place, a community
0:35:23 > 0:35:25which helps mothers like her prepare and cope
0:35:25 > 0:35:26with feelings of loneliness.
0:35:26 > 0:35:29Very good evening to you both. So Sue, your husband's death goes back
0:35:29 > 0:35:32a very long way. Take us through your experience.My husband died 27
0:35:32 > 0:35:34years ago. So it's been a long journey, yes. I didn't really know
0:35:34 > 0:35:38anything about depression until then.You link the depression and
0:35:38 > 0:35:43the loneliness, the two are -Yeah, I think it's a combined thing.
0:35:43 > 0:35:48Isolation, loneliness and depression is a threesome.You've had, you
0:35:48 > 0:35:50would say you've experienced that pretty well all the way since you
0:35:50 > 0:35:54lost your husband? Yes, yes. It's been a difficult journey, lots of
0:35:54 > 0:35:57things, yeah. You were working?Yes, up to three
0:35:57 > 0:36:02years ago, yeah. I lived in the States for a few years after my
0:36:02 > 0:36:06husband's death because I had a law suit going against him. Against his
0:36:06 > 0:36:11death. I had to stay in the country. So you came back here. You were
0:36:11 > 0:36:18workingOh, yeah.And now you're not.No.And how do you fill your
0:36:18 > 0:36:25day?Well, at the moment, it's getting better because I'm starting
0:36:25 > 0:36:28to get more mobile. A couple of years I was house bound with
0:36:28 > 0:36:34illnesses. And different things, I was waiting for a big operation,
0:36:34 > 0:36:38fighting with the hospitals to get that sorted out and everything. My
0:36:38 > 0:36:43health went down. I have a history of leg ulcers and things. Spiralled,
0:36:43 > 0:36:48I was house bound for 18 months, two years. That's when the isolation and
0:36:48 > 0:36:54loneliness and depression starts. Your experience is very different,
0:36:54 > 0:36:59when you had young children.Yes, mine was a temporary experience.
0:36:59 > 0:37:03Mine was the result of becoming a new mother and perhaps having
0:37:03 > 0:37:08unrealistic expectations about what it's like to go from having a busy
0:37:08 > 0:37:11professional life, a social life, to suddenly being at home all day,
0:37:11 > 0:37:15every day.Your life has meaning and it has a kind of focus.Yes, it
0:37:15 > 0:37:22does. But when the focus is a really cute baby that doesn't do much apart
0:37:22 > 0:37:33from dribble and to, it doesn't give a lot back. It's -- and poo.And
0:37:33 > 0:37:38you've set up this group, you're speaking to people.It's an online
0:37:38 > 0:37:43community which is helping to support and educate women who are -
0:37:43 > 0:37:50and fathers - who are starting with parenthood and just being honest and
0:37:50 > 0:37:55saying, you know, it's not like the picture post card. It's not as
0:37:55 > 0:37:58romantic as it might look.Be prepared for what you're about to
0:37:58 > 0:38:02get into, because you'll be...Yeah it's about realistic expectations.
0:38:02 > 0:38:06One thinks of it as a busy time, you're not out and about meeting
0:38:06 > 0:38:10other mothers in the park?Yeah, definitely. But you can't be out and
0:38:10 > 0:38:15about Monday to Friday, 6am when the baby wakes until, you know, your
0:38:15 > 0:38:20partner gets home on a Friday night at 8pm. So you can't schedule
0:38:20 > 0:38:27something every minute of every day. The daily drudgery associated with
0:38:27 > 0:38:32just being at home with a baby on your own, without - Sue and I were
0:38:32 > 0:38:36talking about, the lack of mental stimulation. If you're used to
0:38:36 > 0:38:39having adult company.You were saying how much you noticed the
0:38:39 > 0:38:43noises in your house?Yes. When you're on your own you do. When
0:38:43 > 0:38:47you've got a family or kids or a dog, when you're on your own
0:38:47 > 0:38:51completely, a house makes its own noises. You pick it up when you're
0:38:51 > 0:38:55on your own. You do. You worry about things. You take things on board
0:38:55 > 0:39:00more.What's Christmas for you this year?I'm going to a church that
0:39:00 > 0:39:04I've been to for about three years that does a lunch. Then I'm hoping
0:39:04 > 0:39:09to go to some very good friends for tea, afterwards. They've got two
0:39:09 > 0:39:12lovely little girls. They make me feel very much a part of their
0:39:12 > 0:39:18family, which is lovely.Good. Is this getting worse? Because
0:39:18 > 0:39:21obviously we have busy lives. We have perhaps socially disconnected
0:39:21 > 0:39:25lives. Maybe we don't know the neighbours as well as we used. To I
0:39:25 > 0:39:28don't know.We're not living in the same family units that we used to.
0:39:28 > 0:39:33People don't live so close to their families any more. You've got lots
0:39:33 > 0:39:38of couples living in a small flat, within a building, on a busy street.
0:39:38 > 0:39:43They don't know their neighbours. Also so many working mums who
0:39:43 > 0:39:47perhaps, I don't want to say they're too proud to ask for help, but it's
0:39:47 > 0:39:51not in their nature to.There's a bit of a stigma, one might feel.
0:39:51 > 0:39:56Yeah.I wonder whether technology helps. Because you have a
0:39:56 > 0:39:59smartphone, I think, don't you?I do, yeah.You've got a Gmail
0:39:59 > 0:40:06account.I do.You're laughing though.Doesn't get used very much.
0:40:06 > 0:40:13But I do have the account.Is that a way of connecting people more?I
0:40:13 > 0:40:17still think we should reach out to each other more. I really do. I
0:40:17 > 0:40:21really do. I think technology is great in one way, but it's the human
0:40:21 > 0:40:26touch. I feel with the isolation and loneliness and depression, you've
0:40:26 > 0:40:31got to reach out to people, in the local community. If somebody you
0:40:31 > 0:40:37know of is perhaps isolated or on their own or people -Go and visit.
0:40:37 > 0:40:41People don't do that, perhaps people are frightened if they don't do it,
0:40:41 > 0:40:44they'll get involved or something. It's something we've got to do hands
0:40:44 > 0:40:50on. I think technology is wonderful, but it's not the answer. It's not
0:40:50 > 0:40:56the same as reaching out one to one. Good luck both of you with it and we
0:40:56 > 0:40:59need to leave it there. Thanks very much indeed for coming in.
0:40:59 > 0:41:01That's almost all from us.
0:41:01 > 0:41:03Emily is here tomorrow.
0:41:03 > 0:41:07But before we go, in case you hadn't noticed, there's been a bit of snow
0:41:07 > 0:41:10falling around the country recently, bringing with it the usual mix
0:41:10 > 0:41:11of delighted children and grumpy commuters.
0:41:11 > 0:41:13It may have created childcare headaches and nightmare journeys -
0:41:13 > 0:41:16but it doesn't half make the country look pretty.
0:41:16 > 0:41:18Goodnight.
0:41:21 > 0:41:31# All
0:41:33 > 0:41:43MUSIC