0:00:05 > 0:00:09She thinks she'll still be in charge at the end of the year...
0:00:09 > 0:00:11Because in the United Kingdom in 2018, everyone deserves
0:00:11 > 0:00:15the chance to succeed.
0:00:15 > 0:00:19He thinks he could Prime Minister before long...
0:00:19 > 0:00:21Backing the things which most people want,
0:00:21 > 0:00:23but are blocked by vested interests.
0:00:23 > 0:00:26We are a government in waiting.
0:00:26 > 0:00:30So how will 2018 pan out?
0:00:30 > 0:00:32A new year, but old politics is dead.
0:00:32 > 0:00:34Everything changed in 2017 and the parties are playing
0:00:34 > 0:00:40by new rules, so it's a fine time to ask where we are going.
0:00:40 > 0:00:42Who better than the members of our prestigious panel of pundits
0:00:42 > 0:00:48and pollsters to provide a map of the route ahead?
0:00:48 > 0:00:50Also tonight, there's been six days of unrest in Iran,
0:00:50 > 0:00:53is it theocracy vs democracy?
0:00:53 > 0:00:55And what does it mean for the reformist President Rouhani,
0:00:55 > 0:01:02that his reforms have evidently not won over the people?
0:01:02 > 0:01:04Cherie Blair offers a new year suggestion on how
0:01:04 > 0:01:07to promote economic growth.
0:01:07 > 0:01:10That there is a vast opportunity that is being underused in every
0:01:10 > 0:01:14single country across the world.
0:01:14 > 0:01:16That opportunity is women.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20And in the last year, almost 1,000 bank branches have shut.
0:01:20 > 0:01:22Three of those were in Holywell in Flintshire.
0:01:22 > 0:01:29We see why it hurts, and what traders can do about it.
0:01:29 > 0:01:32They all say that they are for the businesses and that and yet
0:01:32 > 0:01:33they're is not helping us at all.
0:01:33 > 0:01:36They're making it harder for us to get to them.
0:01:36 > 0:01:39Because if we run out of change or need to do a bank for cash
0:01:39 > 0:01:42and that, you can't just nip to the bank any more.
0:01:42 > 0:01:52You've got to physically go to a town somewhere else.
0:01:52 > 0:01:53Hello, happy new year.
0:01:53 > 0:01:54Hopefully.
0:01:54 > 0:01:57But who will it be a happy new year for?
0:01:57 > 0:02:00That's where we start tonight as we take advantage of the fact
0:02:00 > 0:02:03that 2018 is still in its warm-up phase to look at politics here,
0:02:03 > 0:02:05and how it might evolve.
0:02:05 > 0:02:08As always, the big battle is the one between the Conservatives and Labour
0:02:08 > 0:02:13and rarely has the choice between them been as stark.
0:02:13 > 0:02:15So how a minority Conservative government gets on,
0:02:15 > 0:02:17and whether Labour can threaten it is an obvious issue
0:02:17 > 0:02:18for the year ahead.
0:02:18 > 0:02:22But in some ways, a lot of the action in politics these days
0:02:22 > 0:02:23is within the two main parties.
0:02:23 > 0:02:26They both have huge great cracks down the middle of them,
0:02:26 > 0:02:31and yet both have survived 2017 in one piece.
0:02:31 > 0:02:34Can they really survive the storms of Brexit and 2018 without at least
0:02:34 > 0:02:38one of them suffering a big rupture?
0:02:38 > 0:02:41Well, we'll reflect on that shortly, but first, Chris Cook has been
0:02:41 > 0:02:43looking at the queue of storms heading the way of the
0:02:43 > 0:02:48government in 2018.
0:02:52 > 0:03:00The government is facing an Olympiad of challenges this year. Here are
0:03:00 > 0:03:04five events that will probably define whether 2018 is remembered as
0:03:04 > 0:03:05a success.
0:03:05 > 0:03:07The most important one, of course, is Brexit.
0:03:07 > 0:03:10We are heading to leave the EU in the spring of next year,
0:03:10 > 0:03:13but the initial deal, whatever it is, needs to be
0:03:13 > 0:03:14agreed by this autumn.
0:03:14 > 0:03:16So we have time to get it through the various parliaments.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19Ireland remains a big issue for a deal.
0:03:19 > 0:03:22A lot of Brexiteers wanted to diverge from the EU's rule
0:03:22 > 0:03:24books and want the UK, including Northern Ireland,
0:03:24 > 0:03:29to move as a single block.
0:03:29 > 0:03:31But our government has already agreed there may need to be full
0:03:31 > 0:03:33alignment with those rules with the internal market
0:03:33 > 0:03:35and the Customs Union, which relate to cooperation
0:03:35 > 0:03:38on the island of Ireland.
0:03:39 > 0:03:41That seems irreconcilable.
0:03:41 > 0:03:46There may also be difficulties managing expectations.
0:03:46 > 0:03:49The EU has said our current...
0:03:49 > 0:03:53Negotiating position means we will only get a deal like that granted to
0:03:53 > 0:04:03Canada. And we won't get details of that signed off in the coming year.
0:04:03 > 0:04:04Only outline principles.
0:04:04 > 0:04:06Anaemic growth was the norm before the referendum,
0:04:06 > 0:04:09that's all we've had since, and it remains the expectation
0:04:09 > 0:04:11for the coming years.
0:04:11 > 0:04:13That will mean a continued squeeze on wages.
0:04:13 > 0:04:16One of the most painful facts of life about post-crisis Britain
0:04:16 > 0:04:17looks likely to continue.
0:04:17 > 0:04:20Weak growth will also mean weak tax revenue growth and that complicates
0:04:20 > 0:04:21tasks like the introduction of Universal Credit.
0:04:21 > 0:04:24It would always be hard and fiddly, but doing this on a budget
0:04:24 > 0:04:27makes everything harder.
0:04:27 > 0:04:30The benefit being much less generous than it had been planned to be adds
0:04:30 > 0:04:34a lot of pain into the mixture.
0:04:34 > 0:04:43The NHS and social care are another troublesome problem.
0:04:44 > 0:04:45The care services are desperate for money,
0:04:45 > 0:04:48and we are well off our target at the moment.
0:04:48 > 0:04:50So far, the public has seemed quite relaxed about longer waits,
0:04:50 > 0:04:53but the clinical problems it creates are mounting and public
0:04:53 > 0:04:54indifference may soon turn.
0:04:54 > 0:04:56Finally, keep an eye on universities.
0:04:56 > 0:04:58While well shielded from austerity, they are perhaps the most pro-Remain
0:04:58 > 0:05:00sector in the country and they're having their funding reviewed.
0:05:00 > 0:05:04And a new regulator's coming in.
0:05:04 > 0:05:06Which has already caused some consternation.
0:05:06 > 0:05:09If you were trying to foment a culture war, it's harder to think
0:05:09 > 0:05:12a better way to get going.
0:05:12 > 0:05:14It's not all doom and gloom.
0:05:14 > 0:05:16Precisely because polls suggest the British
0:05:16 > 0:05:17public aren't optimistic.
0:05:17 > 0:05:21So a middling finish might be greeted quite warmly.
0:05:21 > 0:05:23But it's certainly a gruesome set of obstacles ahead
0:05:23 > 0:05:28for a minority government.
0:05:29 > 0:05:33Chris Cook's guide to the government's challenges.
0:05:33 > 0:05:35In terms of the Labour opposition, 2017 was quite a year.
0:05:35 > 0:05:38One in which old rules were broken, particularly the rules of thumb
0:05:38 > 0:05:40by which political experts manage to look like experts.
0:05:40 > 0:05:43Here's a quick look back at our new year programme
0:05:43 > 0:05:45this time last year, and what our panel had to say
0:05:45 > 0:05:48about Jeremy Corbyn.
0:05:48 > 0:05:50Ignore the fact the guests are sitting at school desks, no-one
0:05:50 > 0:05:54can remember what we were thinking, but it seemed like a good
0:05:54 > 0:05:58idea at the time.
0:05:58 > 0:06:00The question I put was, can Labour recover?
0:06:00 > 0:06:03It is very difficult to see how Labour can move
0:06:03 > 0:06:04on from its current situation.
0:06:04 > 0:06:06Actually, when the polls get it wrong they tend
0:06:06 > 0:06:09to understate Labour, not overstate Labour,
0:06:09 > 0:06:11so if they're wrong, they're quite likely to be wrong
0:06:11 > 0:06:14the other way round.
0:06:14 > 0:06:16Obviously, Corbyn's no good, but he may go.
0:06:16 > 0:06:18Imagine that Ed Balls came back into Parliament,
0:06:18 > 0:06:21imagine Ed Balls was leading the Labour Party.
0:06:21 > 0:06:23Imagine that Theresa May stumbles.
0:06:23 > 0:06:28Actually, I think it's worse than you're saying though for Corbyn
0:06:28 > 0:06:31because what I get in focus groups is not that people don't like him.
0:06:31 > 0:06:36He's literally irrelevant.
0:06:36 > 0:06:39That was last year. You're going to see some of those faces again.
0:06:39 > 0:06:42We're joined by the LBC presenter Iain Dale,
0:06:42 > 0:06:46the founder of Britain Thinks, Deborah Mattinson,
0:06:46 > 0:06:47who you heard there, Faiza Shaheen,
0:06:47 > 0:06:49the director of the Centre for Labour and Social Studies,
0:06:49 > 0:06:52and by the Times columnist Matthew Parris.
0:06:52 > 0:06:57We should start with last year and you weren't the only one who said it
0:06:57 > 0:07:05last year. You got a lot right.You didn't show it!What happened last
0:07:05 > 0:07:09year, that the pundits got Jeremy Corbyn wrong?The central thing that
0:07:09 > 0:07:13happened was that younger voters turned out to vote. When you are
0:07:13 > 0:07:17predicting what is going to have an election, the best tools you have
0:07:17 > 0:07:20are how people have behaved last time. What we all did, this is why
0:07:20 > 0:07:25it wasn't just pollsters that politicians, canvassers, everybody
0:07:25 > 0:07:30read it wrong. Everybody was assuming that young people, as they
0:07:30 > 0:07:34have done in the past, said they were going to vote and yes, they
0:07:34 > 0:07:38were going to support labour and they did not turn out. This time the
0:07:38 > 0:07:42experts were confounded because they did turn out, that made a big
0:07:42 > 0:07:45difference.Matthew, have a go at this interesting question, will the
0:07:45 > 0:07:50young people turn up next time? What would be the working assumption now?
0:07:50 > 0:07:54I don't know why you are asking us, we got it so wrong last time. Get
0:07:54 > 0:08:00some new pundits! You should never underestimate the Conservative
0:08:00 > 0:08:06Party's capacity to fail to infuse the population. It wasn't just
0:08:06 > 0:08:14Jeremy Corbyn's success but the Conservative Party just didn't fizz.
0:08:14 > 0:08:18Young people want a bit of fizz and we underestimated the hunger for
0:08:18 > 0:08:23that.How do you think these new rules that prevailed last year will
0:08:23 > 0:08:27last? Will it go back to the old style of business?We make a mistake
0:08:27 > 0:08:32when we make this about individuals or specifics of rules. What has
0:08:32 > 0:08:36happened is that a number of conservative ideologies, about the
0:08:36 > 0:08:41way we run the economy, whether it's about the way in which posterity has
0:08:41 > 0:08:45spectacularly failed and cost people in society, or whether it be the
0:08:45 > 0:08:50setup on Brexit. A lot of people can see that these ideas are not
0:08:50 > 0:08:55delivering any more. Things have changed. How do we expect young
0:08:55 > 0:08:58people to support market fundamentalism when they themselves
0:08:58 > 0:09:02don't have any capital? You can't be capitalist when you don't have any
0:09:02 > 0:09:07capital. We look at this issue of young people, we talk it up to
0:09:07 > 0:09:10individuals but there is something much deeper here. It's about the way
0:09:10 > 0:09:17in which the plates of society and the economy are shifting.For the
0:09:17 > 0:09:20time. Things have changed and people have changed their views
0:09:20 > 0:09:28accordingly. There are three battles in politics. Within Tories, Labour
0:09:28 > 0:09:31and Tories and Labour. Let's go back to the Tories. We didn't play your
0:09:31 > 0:09:40election predictions. Iain. The Tories have held it together in the
0:09:40 > 0:09:45last year, will they get through 2018 together as a party?Theresa
0:09:45 > 0:09:49May's objective was to make it to Christmas and quite unbelievably.
0:09:49 > 0:09:53The chance to get rid of her was on June the 9th and they didn't get rid
0:09:53 > 0:09:58of her. There hasn't been a king or queen over the water, no wonder they
0:09:58 > 0:10:03can unite around and replace Theresa May with. That's still the case now.
0:10:03 > 0:10:09That will probably be the case this time next year. We will still be in
0:10:09 > 0:10:11that position. She is an ever stronger a position than people
0:10:11 > 0:10:17think. Strong enough to carry out quite a wide-ranging reshuffle. She
0:10:17 > 0:10:23will say, I date you to get rid of me.Including Boris?-- I dare you.
0:10:23 > 0:10:27Including Boris and the Chancellor. She can certainly move one of them.
0:10:27 > 0:10:31I might regret saying this but the big battles over Brexit have already
0:10:31 > 0:10:36been had in 2017. The big battle this year will be in the House of
0:10:36 > 0:10:40Lords. That could be trickier for Theresa May than anybody realises.
0:10:40 > 0:10:43We have a two-year parliament, they can't invoke the Parliament act
0:10:43 > 0:10:47until after we have left the EU. Because the deal would have been
0:10:47 > 0:10:51done. The only way out is if the House of Lords cut up rough. The
0:10:51 > 0:10:55only way out of that is a general election.I rather question your
0:10:55 > 0:10:59confidence in her longevity. She is like a ping-pong ball, balanced on a
0:10:59 > 0:11:04fountain.She is like a weevil, she wobbles but never falls down.She
0:11:04 > 0:11:08has no weight of her own, one stumble and accident, and accidents
0:11:08 > 0:11:13happen in politics.There have been so many since the election. She
0:11:13 > 0:11:17stumbled over Graham fell, the machinations over Brexit. She has
0:11:17 > 0:11:21got through those -- over Grenfell Tower.What do you mean that Brexit
0:11:21 > 0:11:26is sorted out now?We haven't said that.We will be confronted with
0:11:26 > 0:11:30Norway or Canada. What is going to happen?The conversation about
0:11:30 > 0:11:35Brexit this year will throw up so much. Yes, in the House of Lords,
0:11:35 > 0:11:38but also in terms of trade. Trade isn't just about the movement of
0:11:38 > 0:11:42goods any more. It will also be about the issue of movement of
0:11:42 > 0:11:47people. So much will have to be an done and redone this year. When we
0:11:47 > 0:11:52have a Conservative Party that isn't united, that doesn't have a vision
0:11:52 > 0:11:56for Brexit...And Labour does? Really? Really? Really? They offer
0:11:56 > 0:12:02something different. What is easy movement because no one can define
0:12:02 > 0:12:08it crossed my -- what does easy movement mean.Is Brexit holding the
0:12:08 > 0:12:13party together?No. To be fair, though, I don't think there is one
0:12:13 > 0:12:15that holds the Labour Party together, either. That's the
0:12:15 > 0:12:22problem. There are three groups of people, one, the diehards,
0:12:22 > 0:12:26passionate about Brexit, the devastated pessimists, they have
0:12:26 > 0:12:31their heads on their desks and are beside themselves with sorrow. About
0:12:31 > 0:12:36one third each, there is a third in the middle who are swing voters.
0:12:36 > 0:12:40They are a bit more relaxed either way. It's very hard to envisage any
0:12:40 > 0:12:46kind of solution.I can.I think there is a Brexit that can more or
0:12:46 > 0:12:52less look inside the Conservative Party. Iain, this issue may never
0:12:52 > 0:12:56explode. The Brexit that will satisfy the Conservative Party is
0:12:56 > 0:12:58that we formally leave the European Union but to all intents and
0:12:58 > 0:13:04purposes stay within the European Union.That won't satisfy everybody!
0:13:04 > 0:13:10That might satisfy you but not me. Or many others.That's the problem.
0:13:10 > 0:13:14We have to real people like you in like a fish, very gradually.That is
0:13:14 > 0:13:17not possible.
0:13:17 > 0:13:21Is another area again where the Conservatives are not going to
0:13:21 > 0:13:24deliver. They have built up these promises and they will fail. People
0:13:24 > 0:13:34will be angry.Let's come to Labour. Labour have held it together. By not
0:13:34 > 0:13:38saying anything on anything. That might be the right tactic. To stay
0:13:38 > 0:13:43quiet.Of course, there are political tactics. And what is clear
0:13:43 > 0:13:47about what Labour offered in the last election and what word is that
0:13:47 > 0:13:51when the manifesto came out and they talked about bringing the rail
0:13:51 > 0:13:53services back into public ownership, the talked about housing, they
0:13:53 > 0:14:01talked about what they would do with homelessness and the NHS. They offer
0:14:01 > 0:14:07something different to young people. Bribes?Unfunded bribes. I different
0:14:07 > 0:14:14way to fund the economy.More want -- more money for everyone.There
0:14:14 > 0:14:17was a poll yesterday which suggested more people feel that Labour's
0:14:17 > 0:14:22values are closely matched to their own values. Many more than the
0:14:22 > 0:14:28Conservatives. If that is the case, how come the Conservatives are
0:14:28 > 0:14:32polling so much further ahead of their own values?Why is it
0:14:32 > 0:14:37basically level pegging?Theresa May still outranks Jeremy Corbyn as best
0:14:37 > 0:14:44Prime Minister by a mile.Can you envisage Labour pulling ahead
0:14:44 > 0:14:50significantly?Yes I can. I can't underestimate the Conservative
0:14:50 > 0:14:53Party's ability to discuss the electorate. We will see in the
0:14:53 > 0:14:59London elections in May what happens to the Tories in London. British
0:14:59 > 0:15:04people may want to vote for a mangy aardvark rather than vote for the
0:15:04 > 0:15:07President Conservative Party -- present Conservative Party. That is
0:15:07 > 0:15:12what worries me.Is this the year we get off Brexit as a conversation? Is
0:15:12 > 0:15:18it possible to talk about something... The headlines of the
0:15:18 > 0:15:21newspapers tomorrow, NHS tells hospital to cancel routine
0:15:21 > 0:15:24operations. Winter crisis cripples the NHS. The guardian on the same
0:15:24 > 0:15:31topic.It is the issue that most people are concerned about. 51%. At
0:15:31 > 0:15:38the NHS is now 45%, the highest it has been for 16 years. It is rising
0:15:38 > 0:15:42up. People are getting more and more concerned. It relates to Brexit,
0:15:42 > 0:15:48people link the two together.Just give the HS a few billion more as an
0:15:48 > 0:15:52emergency and the immediate crisis subsides -- the NHS. It doesn't
0:15:52 > 0:15:54solve the problem but it takes it out of the headlines, that is what
0:15:54 > 0:15:59they will do.It is what they always do.But people are using the NHS.
0:15:59 > 0:16:01This is what people get wrong, the public are constantly using these
0:16:01 > 0:16:06services, they have seen a change. There is a time lag.They are
0:16:06 > 0:16:09frustrated. They won't just be upset about Brexit but about seeing more
0:16:09 > 0:16:14homeless people on the street, but how difficult it is to get
0:16:14 > 0:16:17appointments. 2018 will be a year where these trends and these
0:16:17 > 0:16:19mistakes and butter from Di Dougherty at the Conservatives and
0:16:19 > 0:16:26their policies are going to lay out. -- and the defunct ideology.Housing
0:16:26 > 0:16:30is the highest level of concern since the 70s. The economy is
0:16:30 > 0:16:33something that is not being talked about.That is a real challenge for
0:16:33 > 0:16:38Theresa May. A lot depends on who she points as her deputy if she does
0:16:38 > 0:16:43that. She needs to effectively own the Brexit agenda. A bit like the
0:16:43 > 0:16:47Second World War, there needs to be a church or in charge. I can't
0:16:47 > 0:16:51compare Theresa May to Winston Churchill. -- Billy needs to be a
0:16:51 > 0:16:57Churchill in charge. There needs to be a figure a Atlee bit like who can
0:16:57 > 0:17:02run domestic politics. -- a bit like Atlee.Where does this end this
0:17:02 > 0:17:09year? Do any of you expect a general election. You also know last year.
0:17:09 > 0:17:17No.Only if the House of Lords does play up. I can't foresee other
0:17:17 > 0:17:21circumstances.And political parties intact at the end of this year?Sort
0:17:21 > 0:17:29of. We stumble on.Muddle through scenario?With no new leaders?It is
0:17:29 > 0:17:33a shame. We will be treading water at such a crucial time for this
0:17:33 > 0:17:38country.Less of a shame.What about third parties? Do any of you think
0:17:38 > 0:17:49another party, third party...No. Labour has changed and Corbyn offers
0:17:49 > 0:17:53something different. A new Labour. There is something very different
0:17:53 > 0:17:57here on offer. It speaks to people's concerns and their needs and their
0:17:57 > 0:18:03worries.Exactly. I think that as well.That is a good question on
0:18:03 > 0:18:07which we will finish. Muddle through and finished the year where we
0:18:07 > 0:18:09start. Thank you and happy New Year.
0:18:09 > 0:18:12In Iran, six days of riots, spreading to around 50 cities
0:18:12 > 0:18:13and towns with over 20 people dead.
0:18:13 > 0:18:16Something is up, but what exactly?
0:18:16 > 0:18:20Unlike the protests a decade ago, when educated urban youths protested
0:18:20 > 0:18:23against a disputed election result that gave power to a hardline
0:18:23 > 0:18:26president, today it seems that many poorer or unemployed Iranians
0:18:26 > 0:18:28are on the streets.
0:18:28 > 0:18:30And in power now is not a hard liner, but a moderate,
0:18:30 > 0:18:35President Hassan Rouhani.
0:18:35 > 0:18:38He's the one the West has bet on, signing a nuclear deal with him
0:18:38 > 0:18:40in the hope he'd soften the regime.
0:18:40 > 0:18:42Well, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is blaming
0:18:42 > 0:18:43enemies of the country.
0:18:43 > 0:18:46The US has condemned the regime and said all freedom-loving people
0:18:46 > 0:18:50must stand with the cause of the Iranian people.
0:18:50 > 0:18:57John Sweeney has been looking at how the unrest has evolved.
0:18:57 > 0:18:59Welcome to a small town in Iran.
0:18:59 > 0:19:06It was burning last night.
0:19:06 > 0:19:08The numbers of protesters are small, but uprising in the likes of this
0:19:08 > 0:19:11town could be big trouble for the regime.
0:19:14 > 0:19:18They are shouting, "Death to the dictator"
0:19:18 > 0:19:23and that's not good news for the supreme leader,
0:19:23 > 0:19:25Ali Khamenei and his iron fist, the Revolutionary Guards.
0:19:25 > 0:19:27We want freedom!
0:19:27 > 0:19:31We want freedom!
0:19:31 > 0:19:33In 2009, millions took to the streets of Teheran to protest
0:19:33 > 0:19:36against vote rigging.
0:19:36 > 0:19:44Why should much smaller numbers in 2018 pose a problem?
0:19:44 > 0:19:49What they thought was a controlled burn has essentially spread
0:19:49 > 0:19:52into a wildfire that you're seeing in cities and provincial towns,
0:19:52 > 0:19:54places we haven't seen protests since the 1979 revolution.
0:19:54 > 0:19:56I think that's interesting, especially when you
0:19:56 > 0:20:00look at the numbers.
0:20:00 > 0:20:03You had millions of people taking to the streets of Teheran,
0:20:03 > 0:20:06you're finding that hundreds at most a few thousand people are taking
0:20:06 > 0:20:07to the streets right now.
0:20:07 > 0:20:14I think that's interesting.
0:20:14 > 0:20:17The numbers aren't big but the geography is.
0:20:17 > 0:20:19This map, produced by opponents of the regime, points to how
0:20:19 > 0:20:21widespread the protests are.
0:20:21 > 0:20:24This is an uprising from across the country, but even
0:20:24 > 0:20:27more toxic to the powers that be in Teheran,
0:20:27 > 0:20:32it's coming from below.
0:20:32 > 0:20:35Many of these cities, even Iranians don't know where they are.
0:20:35 > 0:20:36They are small towns.
0:20:36 > 0:20:39What we know about these demonstrators is that they are poor,
0:20:39 > 0:20:42many of them voted for Rouhani a few months ago.
0:20:42 > 0:20:44They are disappointed in him, in President Rouhani.
0:20:44 > 0:20:47Many of them did not vote, they don't have a leader
0:20:47 > 0:20:54but they are frustrated, they are angry and they want change.
0:20:54 > 0:21:02But the regime does not.
0:21:02 > 0:21:05These are its motorbike warriors, on the streets of Teheran to keep
0:21:05 > 0:21:13things the way they are.
0:21:13 > 0:21:15Their master, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,
0:21:15 > 0:21:16blaming amongst others Western spies.
0:21:16 > 0:21:18TRANSLATION:Following recent events, the enemies have united
0:21:18 > 0:21:20and are using all their means, money, weapons, policies
0:21:20 > 0:21:29and security services to create problems for the Islamic Republic.
0:21:29 > 0:21:32His president, Hassan Rouhani, took a more sober tone,
0:21:32 > 0:21:37calling the protests and opportunity, not a threat.
0:21:37 > 0:21:41Donald Trump has been banging the drum for regime change.
0:21:41 > 0:21:47So has he once again identified an angry working-class space?
0:21:47 > 0:21:50Whether we want it or not, Donald Trump is the president
0:21:50 > 0:21:52of the United States.
0:21:52 > 0:21:55And as such, many Iranian protesters,
0:21:55 > 0:21:58they want to hear from him.
0:21:58 > 0:22:01They want the support of the American president.
0:22:01 > 0:22:06Whether it's Barack Obama, George Bush or Donald Trump,
0:22:06 > 0:22:09they want the American President, British Prime Minister,
0:22:09 > 0:22:19leaders of different countries supporting their movement.
0:22:21 > 0:22:22This was the scene outside the Iranian
0:22:22 > 0:22:23Embassy today.
0:22:23 > 0:22:26The people making the noise here are quite different to
0:22:26 > 0:22:28the demonstrators back in Iran, the people driving
0:22:28 > 0:22:29the latest uprising.
0:22:29 > 0:22:31Historically, it's been the well travelled, people with passports,
0:22:31 > 0:22:34the wealthy, who try and overturn the regime in Teheran.
0:22:34 > 0:22:41This time it's the poor are, this time it's
0:22:41 > 0:22:45the base and that is what makes it so dangerous for the regime and also
0:22:45 > 0:22:49so difficult to call.
0:22:49 > 0:22:53But how deep is the hunger for actual revolution?
0:22:53 > 0:22:56You don't really have to look far to understand what could potentially
0:22:56 > 0:23:01happen here.
0:23:01 > 0:23:05The Arab uprisings in 2011 are a perfect example, Egypt, Libya
0:23:05 > 0:23:09and Syria, which the Iranian government has a hand in, a perfect
0:23:09 > 0:23:12example of a situation they don't want Iran to turn out to be.
0:23:12 > 0:23:16The new year hasn't started so well for the
0:23:16 > 0:23:21supreme leader and his iron fist.
0:23:21 > 0:23:23Too much force and blood spilt will drive the uprising.
0:23:23 > 0:23:28Too little and the regime could lose control.
0:23:28 > 0:23:30Azadeh Moaveni is a journalist and academic who has been
0:23:30 > 0:23:35covering the Middle East for nearly two decades.
0:23:35 > 0:23:37We're also joined from New York by Ian Bremmer who's the president
0:23:37 > 0:23:39of the Eurasia Group, a political risk research
0:23:39 > 0:23:41and consulting firm, which published its annual report
0:23:41 > 0:23:50on the world's geopolitical challenges today.
0:23:50 > 0:23:58Just take me through what the fault line is, what is the divide? Is it
0:23:58 > 0:24:03secular and clerical, rich and poor, economic? What is the divide.I
0:24:03 > 0:24:07think what we're seeing in terms of what is unfolding on the streets is
0:24:07 > 0:24:11a very young, very radical, very disenfranchised command of the
0:24:11 > 0:24:19population that feels frustrated with economic conditions it is under
0:24:19 > 0:24:24-- segment of the population. You can see from the radical nature of
0:24:24 > 0:24:28the slogans, they have little stake in the system, so frustrated that
0:24:28 > 0:24:32they can't imagine reform, they just want their difficulties to end. Some
0:24:32 > 0:24:36of them are very traditional, some of them are religious, some of them
0:24:36 > 0:24:42may believe in the system but find it very corrupt in many aspects.
0:24:42 > 0:24:49It's complicated, in a way!Exactly. It isn't theocracy versus democracy
0:24:49 > 0:24:53like a Philip Pullman novel where it is the Conservative clerics against
0:24:53 > 0:24:59the forces of progression? No, we have to remember that six months ago
0:24:59 > 0:25:03there was an election and Rouhani won on a landslide, 70 million
0:25:03 > 0:25:07Iranians voted, it turned out, voted for his platform of economic change
0:25:07 > 0:25:14with hope, wanting to integrate into the world. But the government of
0:25:14 > 0:25:17Rouhani has had a challenge. These are the people who are not seeing
0:25:17 > 0:25:21anything trickle-down.Are the protesters calling for him to be
0:25:21 > 0:25:29pulled down or for the ayatollah?I think that the protesters are crying
0:25:29 > 0:25:34in rage. I think they don't have clear demands, they aren't
0:25:34 > 0:25:36articulating -- they are articulating their rage at not
0:25:36 > 0:25:42having their grievances met or considered.I think you put Iran at
0:25:42 > 0:25:48number five on the global risks in terms of your Iran US relations
0:25:48 > 0:25:53today. It is ironic because Rouhani is the guy that the West has been
0:25:53 > 0:25:58backing over the last few years, investing a lot of hope in him. Is
0:25:58 > 0:26:05this the end of that strategy? Does it work now?Well, it is the end of
0:26:05 > 0:26:11the West, right, in a sense that you have the Europeans still supporting
0:26:11 > 0:26:14reformists in Iran and the Iranian nuclear deal but not the United
0:26:14 > 0:26:20States, not the club administration. To the extent that these
0:26:20 > 0:26:27demonstrations showed the viability of Rouhani, they potentially lead to
0:26:27 > 0:26:34a hardline backlash which plays into Trump's anti-Iran, anti-work with
0:26:34 > 0:26:41these people narrative and leads to more conflict. I think that the US
0:26:41 > 0:26:44Iranian fight is likely to become considerably more challenging over
0:26:44 > 0:26:49the course of this year. And I also agree that the people who are
0:26:49 > 0:26:52demonstrating right now come from a lot of different walks of life. They
0:26:52 > 0:26:57are very courageous because the dangers they face from this regime,
0:26:57 > 0:27:01for them and their families, is the ultimate. It reminds me of what we
0:27:01 > 0:27:06saw in Syria in the early days of the anti-President Assad protests.
0:27:06 > 0:27:13But they did not go well, they were severely repressed and Assad is
0:27:13 > 0:27:17firmly in charge. Your guest mentioned about Egypt. Sure, what
0:27:17 > 0:27:20happened? The military still in charge, a new president brought in
0:27:20 > 0:27:26who never really had power and Egypt feels like how it used to. Small
0:27:26 > 0:27:30demonstrations in rusher around the country, severely disenfranchised
0:27:30 > 0:27:35people who have no voice and not going to get one. Despite what we're
0:27:35 > 0:27:40seeing, the likelihood that we are on the brink of regime change,
0:27:40 > 0:27:46something that can't be repressed, remains very low.Do you think that
0:27:46 > 0:27:50the outcome of this is repression or accommodation of grievances?It
0:27:50 > 0:27:55could be both. You had Rouhani and members of Parliament and
0:27:55 > 0:28:00significant figures within the government acknowledged these
0:28:00 > 0:28:03grievances and the importance of having space for them to articulate
0:28:03 > 0:28:08them, but lawfully, not through vandalism and hooliganism. That's
0:28:08 > 0:28:14why speaking to people in Teheran varies and villains -- there is
0:28:14 > 0:28:17ambivalence about what is happening. There is a recognition of the
0:28:17 > 0:28:22grievance but it will be quickly criminalised because it is
0:28:22 > 0:28:27destructive.Do you think it's helpful when President Trump
0:28:27 > 0:28:31blusters into the debate and supports people? Obama was famously
0:28:31 > 0:28:38much more cautious about supporting protests in 2009. Does it help to
0:28:38 > 0:28:43bolster the administration in Iran if Trump comes in or not?It
0:28:43 > 0:28:50certainly helps Trump domestically, there is no pro-Iran regime
0:28:50 > 0:28:54sentiment in the US, there is no lobby for it. Trump made his first
0:28:54 > 0:29:00visit outside the US to Riyadh, which is very unusual. He doubles
0:29:00 > 0:29:06down on that by going after the Iranian. The Israelis are planning a
0:29:06 > 0:29:12naming of a railway station after him. All the constituents that Trump
0:29:12 > 0:29:16cares about, it's great. In terms of whether it's going to help those who
0:29:16 > 0:29:21are demonstrating on the Trump providing support, no, it's probably
0:29:21 > 0:29:26useless and marginal. First of all because the US isn't making the
0:29:26 > 0:29:30moves and does not have influence on the ground in Iran today. They are
0:29:30 > 0:29:36going to a gauge in backlash against these demonstrators anyway and they
0:29:36 > 0:29:40are going to blame foreign actors irrespective of what Trump says so I
0:29:40 > 0:29:44don't think it plays out on the ground in Iran one bit.We are going
0:29:44 > 0:29:49to talk about this more. Thank you for joining us.
0:29:49 > 0:29:50More projecting ahead now.
0:29:50 > 0:29:52Because it's time for one of our Viewsnight spots,
0:29:52 > 0:29:54and each day this week we'll be running one of these,
0:29:54 > 0:29:58and each offering a view on a big idea that will be preoccupying
0:29:58 > 0:29:59us in 2018.
0:29:59 > 0:30:01Tonight, it's the human rights lawyer Cherie Blair,
0:30:01 > 0:30:04on a suggestion to boost global economic growth.
0:30:05 > 0:30:08Women's rights, what's the point?
0:32:26 > 0:32:29Now, you've enjoyed a few bank holidays over the last couple
0:32:29 > 0:32:32of weeks, but that phrase is becoming increasingly archaic
0:32:32 > 0:32:35and irrelevant in a world where banks don't have branches,
0:32:35 > 0:32:38that can take holidays.
0:32:38 > 0:32:41Here is an astonishing fact that our technology editor has
0:32:41 > 0:32:43uncovered: since the beginning of last year, the four big British
0:32:43 > 0:32:46banks have closed or announced plans to close 18% of their branches.
0:32:46 > 0:32:48About 1,000.
0:32:48 > 0:32:54That's 18% in about a year.
0:32:54 > 0:32:57Now you might say who needs cash in the age of contactless payments?
0:32:57 > 0:32:59But it's not altogether that simple.
0:32:59 > 0:33:01As long as some people use cash, small retail businesses
0:33:01 > 0:33:02need physical banks.
0:33:02 > 0:33:05Well, David Grossman is our technology editor and he has
0:33:05 > 0:33:08been to a town with a population of about 9,000 people
0:33:08 > 0:33:09to see how departing banks affect commercial life,
0:33:09 > 0:33:12and how shops might themselves respond, by moving to alternatives
0:33:12 > 0:33:13to old-school banking services.
0:33:13 > 0:33:17All is not well in Holywell.
0:33:17 > 0:33:20The only bank that's guaranteed to stand by this part of Flintshire
0:33:20 > 0:33:24is the one that separates it from the River Dee.
0:33:24 > 0:33:29Until last year, there were four banks on the high street.
0:33:29 > 0:33:36One after another, three of them closed.
0:33:40 > 0:33:44Each hole in the wall became just a hole in a wall.
0:33:44 > 0:33:49The cash points of the one remaining bank now has a permanent queue.
0:33:49 > 0:33:54For a lot of people, they only came into town for the banks.
0:33:54 > 0:34:00So, because the banks had gone, it was easier to go somewhere
0:34:00 > 0:34:04in the town where there is a bank so they can do their shopping
0:34:04 > 0:34:05and banking at the same time.
0:34:05 > 0:34:07Karen Lloyd runs a flower shop in Holywell.
0:34:07 > 0:34:10She says the banks' departure has been devastating for small
0:34:10 > 0:34:12businesses like hers who need branches to deposit
0:34:12 > 0:34:18their cash takings.
0:34:18 > 0:34:21They all say that they are for businesses and that and yet they're
0:34:21 > 0:34:25not helping us at all and making it harder for us to get to them.
0:34:25 > 0:34:28Because if we run out of change or you need to do
0:34:28 > 0:34:30a bank for cash and that, you can't just nip
0:34:30 > 0:34:31to the bank any more.
0:34:31 > 0:34:35You've got to physically go to another town somewhere else.
0:34:35 > 0:34:37Of course, this isn't just happening in this town,
0:34:37 > 0:34:38it's happening all over the UK.
0:34:38 > 0:34:40The government has opened up banking to competition
0:34:40 > 0:34:43and many of the newcomers into the market are online only.
0:34:43 > 0:34:47Clicks don't need many bricks.
0:34:47 > 0:34:52In an effort to stay competitive, the traditional banks are dropping
0:34:52 > 0:34:56branches faster than a dead tree in a storm.
0:34:56 > 0:34:59All over the UK, the scars of missing bank signs.
0:34:59 > 0:35:03At the start of 2017 the big four UK banks had 5354
0:35:03 > 0:35:06branches between them.
0:35:06 > 0:35:09Since then, Barclays has closed 98 branches.
0:35:11 > 0:35:13HSBC, 129.
0:35:14 > 0:35:16Lloyds, which includes Halifax and Bank of Scotland,
0:35:16 > 0:35:18have closed or announced they will close 250 and RBS,
0:35:20 > 0:35:24including NatWest, have closed or announced they will close 471.
0:35:26 > 0:35:31That's a total of 948 branches gone or going in a little over a year.
0:35:35 > 0:35:38For most towns, the story would end there, with empty buildings
0:35:38 > 0:35:39and a sense of decline.
0:35:39 > 0:35:42And so it might have done for Holywell had it not been
0:35:42 > 0:35:44for a chance conversation between the local MP
0:35:44 > 0:35:48and a tech executive.
0:35:50 > 0:35:52I met David Hanson, the MP for the Yeovil constituency
0:35:52 > 0:35:59and we were talking about the issues that Holywell was facing
0:35:59 > 0:36:02and as Square is a relatively new business to the UK,
0:36:02 > 0:36:07we only launched in March of this year, we were really keen to get
0:36:07 > 0:36:10close to a town like Holywell to understand the problems that
0:36:10 > 0:36:12small businesses have there and see if there was anything
0:36:12 > 0:36:13we could do to help.
0:36:13 > 0:36:17I have a three metre one, which is a bit on the long side.
0:36:17 > 0:36:19Square is already big in the US, it allows small businesses
0:36:19 > 0:36:22like Phil Jones' computer store in Holywell to take card
0:36:22 > 0:36:23payments with a smartphone.
0:36:23 > 0:36:27There's no contract and there is a fixed fee.
0:36:27 > 0:36:30In partnership with the town council, Square has given free card
0:36:30 > 0:36:32readers to any business that wanted one.
0:36:32 > 0:36:38Over 90% have signed up.
0:36:38 > 0:36:45I took cards up until 2014 and then I stopped taking cards.
0:36:45 > 0:36:46Why?
0:36:46 > 0:36:51The payment terminal I had was costing me a lot of money
0:36:51 > 0:36:54as rental and I had minimum processing fees every month
0:36:54 > 0:36:55and there were different variable costs with different
0:36:55 > 0:36:57types of transactions.
0:36:57 > 0:36:58Some lower than Square, some higher than Square.
0:36:58 > 0:37:02So in average, even if I wasn't using it, it was costing over 40
0:37:02 > 0:37:04odd pounds a month just to have a machine here.
0:37:04 > 0:37:10For many businesses in Holywell, that outlay just didn't make sense
0:37:10 > 0:37:13so they were locked in a world of cash but now, without
0:37:13 > 0:37:15the physical banks, they and their customers needed
0:37:15 > 0:37:17to process their cash.
0:37:17 > 0:37:20Sweeny Ted Palmer has cut hair in Holywell for decades.
0:37:20 > 0:37:22He is typical of a cash locked business.
0:37:22 > 0:37:26His haircuts cost £6.
0:37:26 > 0:37:28Having a card reader made no sense.
0:37:28 > 0:37:30Initially, he was resistant to Square's help.
0:37:30 > 0:37:32£6, please.
0:37:32 > 0:37:39But now he says he wouldn't go back.
0:37:39 > 0:37:43People do ask me, do I take card and I've lost custom over it.
0:37:43 > 0:37:47On a couple of occasions, I've cut people's hair and they said,
0:37:47 > 0:37:50do you take card and I said no and they said they would get
0:37:50 > 0:37:54the cash from the machine and I've watched them out of the window go
0:37:54 > 0:37:55and carry on.
0:37:55 > 0:37:56Free haircut?
0:37:56 > 0:37:57Yeah, just not bother coming back.
0:37:57 > 0:37:59So to me it was a no-brainer, really.
0:37:59 > 0:38:02As long as it was viable, you know, it's another
0:38:02 > 0:38:04service that I can offer.
0:38:04 > 0:38:09And people are carrying less and less cash.
0:38:09 > 0:38:14The banks still visit Holywell, this NatWest mobile banking
0:38:14 > 0:38:18van sets up once a week in the council car park.
0:38:18 > 0:38:22Whilst it's true many can now bank online,
0:38:22 > 0:38:24once you get out of town, internet connection isn't
0:38:24 > 0:38:25always good enough.
0:38:25 > 0:38:29Free card payment readers aren't going to solve those challenges.
0:38:29 > 0:38:32The town council says the project's main benefit is to restore some
0:38:32 > 0:38:36self belief in Holywell.
0:38:36 > 0:38:41Yeah, I can happily see a turnaround from the dismay of the original
0:38:41 > 0:38:47banks shutting to people being positive about the town.
0:38:47 > 0:38:51We need to make a lot of changes.
0:38:51 > 0:38:53It's not a silver bullet that can solve everything,
0:38:53 > 0:39:01but it certainly helps.
0:39:01 > 0:39:04First, technology came for the record shops
0:39:04 > 0:39:06and the toy shops and book shops and travel agents.
0:39:06 > 0:39:09The fact that it's now come for the bank branches
0:39:09 > 0:39:12may feel inevitable.
0:39:12 > 0:39:14Viewed from a busy City, even a reasonable evolution.
0:39:14 > 0:39:17But viewed from many rural towns, the departure of the banks can feel
0:39:17 > 0:39:21more like a dire threat to their economic life.
0:39:28 > 0:39:30Good luck to the last bank in Holywell.
0:39:30 > 0:39:32That's all for this evening.
0:39:32 > 0:39:35But before we go, remember when acid house was the seen as the most
0:39:35 > 0:39:36corrupting force facing society?
0:39:36 > 0:39:37Ruining the minds of our youth...
0:39:37 > 0:39:41How things change - rave culture is now at home
0:39:41 > 0:39:43on the BBC's children's channel Cbeebies - perhaps some
0:39:43 > 0:39:46of the people Mrs Thatcher were worried about are now
0:39:46 > 0:39:48running the channel..?
0:39:48 > 0:39:51Hey Dougie's songs are getting so many young people moving
0:39:51 > 0:39:53that its soundtrack has even made its way on to
0:39:53 > 0:39:55BBC Radio 6 music.
0:39:55 > 0:39:59Even if you weren't in a gravel pit with a big speaker in 1989 we're
0:39:59 > 0:40:00sure you'll enjoy this....
0:40:00 > 0:40:01Goodnight.
0:40:01 > 0:40:03MUSIC: Hey Duggee "Stick Song"
0:40:03 > 0:40:08# Stick, stick, stick, stick
0:40:08 > 0:40:10# Sticky, sticky, stick, stick.#
0:40:10 > 0:40:14# Stick, stick, stick, stick
0:40:14 > 0:40:16# Sticky, sticky, stick, stick.#
0:40:16 > 0:40:20# Stick, stick, stick, stick
0:40:20 > 0:40:25# Sticky, sticky, stick, stick.#
0:40:27 > 0:40:33# Sticky, sticky, stick, stick.#