0:00:03 > 0:00:08This programme contains scenes of Repetitive Flashing Images.
0:00:08 > 0:00:10For three decades, we've persuaded ourselves we don't need
0:00:10 > 0:00:12to fight other countries - that war had changed,
0:00:12 > 0:00:14it was all about insurgents.
0:00:14 > 0:00:17Well, is it time to change our minds?
0:00:17 > 0:00:21Russia, I think, could initiate hostilities sooner than we expect.
0:00:21 > 0:00:24And a lot earlier than we would in similar circumstances.
0:00:24 > 0:00:27I don't think it will start with little green men.
0:00:27 > 0:00:29It will start with something we don't expect.
0:00:29 > 0:00:32Britain is set to have a new Strategic Defence Review this year.
0:00:32 > 0:00:35The Generals are making the case for more money.
0:00:35 > 0:00:39So tonight, we'll take a good look at what our defence is for.
0:00:39 > 0:00:41And we'll hear a view from the US, too.
0:00:41 > 0:00:44What do they think our money should be buying?
0:00:44 > 0:00:47Also tonight: They say attack is the best form of defence,
0:00:47 > 0:00:50which explains why the Ukip leader is out to fight his
0:00:50 > 0:00:52rebellious colleagues.
0:00:52 > 0:00:55I shall respect the next steps in the constitutional process,
0:00:55 > 0:00:59and will therefore not be resigning as party leader.
0:00:59 > 0:01:02We tried the men in grey suits, perhaps it's now time
0:01:02 > 0:01:04for the men in white coats.
0:01:04 > 0:01:08I don't know, he seems to me to have lost all touch with reality.
0:01:08 > 0:01:14We'll ask Ukip old-timer Suzanne Evans whether the party is now over.
0:01:14 > 0:01:16And, forget David Davis - this is the man running Brexit
0:01:16 > 0:01:18for Britain: Civil servant Olly Robbins.
0:01:18 > 0:01:23But Brexiteers worry that Whitehall are not all with the programme.
0:01:23 > 0:01:28The officials will do their best to frustrate this process,
0:01:28 > 0:01:34because as I say, it goes against the grain so fundamentally.
0:01:34 > 0:01:39And, should the tradition of African women kneeling be scrapped?
0:01:39 > 0:01:47Is it part of a proud heritage, or an obstacle to social progress?
0:01:52 > 0:01:53Hello.
0:01:53 > 0:01:55What is our defence budget for?
0:01:55 > 0:01:58It's about 2% of our national income, going up to about £40
0:01:58 > 0:02:01billion a year by the end of the decade.
0:02:01 > 0:02:04Unfortunately, £40 billion doesn't buy you as much is it used to.
0:02:04 > 0:02:06And the Head of the Army, General Sir Nick Carter,
0:02:06 > 0:02:09set out the arguments for spending more today - mostly by reference
0:02:09 > 0:02:11to the threat of a stronger Russia.
0:02:11 > 0:02:14Former Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon said tonight we should aim
0:02:14 > 0:02:16to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence.
0:02:16 > 0:02:18But, you can't decide what the right level of spending
0:02:18 > 0:02:20is until you know what it's for.
0:02:20 > 0:02:23You have to give the military a big budget or narrow priorities -
0:02:23 > 0:02:25you can't expect them to do everything with nothing.
0:02:25 > 0:02:28So, is fighting Russia what we think British defence is about these days?
0:02:28 > 0:02:29Or any country?
0:02:29 > 0:02:32Britain is set to have a major review of priorities this year -
0:02:32 > 0:02:35which actually explains why Sir Nick Carter made his pitch
0:02:35 > 0:02:37today, so we'll look at some of the central questions.
0:02:37 > 0:02:42First, here's our Defence Editor, Mark Urban.
0:02:42 > 0:02:50So, the defence review that dare not speak its name is dead,
0:02:52 > 0:02:54long live the Strategic Defence and Security Review.
0:02:54 > 0:02:57It's not a pretty story from the Government's point of view.
0:02:57 > 0:03:02Faced with higher costs for buying equipment from abroad
0:03:02 > 0:03:04and an overset programme, the Cabinet Office started looking
0:03:04 > 0:03:05for cuts late last summer.
0:03:05 > 0:03:09People in Whitehall told me it couldn't be called a review
0:03:09 > 0:03:12because the then Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, had conducted one
0:03:12 > 0:03:16of those in 2015 and didn't like the optics of having to do one
0:03:16 > 0:03:17again so soon.
0:03:17 > 0:03:22But it went deeper than that.
0:03:22 > 0:03:26As the Cabinet Office conducted its capability refresh,
0:03:26 > 0:03:28as some people called it, it started to look at possible deep
0:03:28 > 0:03:30cuts to Britain's Armed Forces.
0:03:30 > 0:03:34Details then leaked, and MPs became outraged.
0:03:34 > 0:03:40Newsnight's learned that the Royal Navy would lose its
0:03:40 > 0:03:42ability to assault enemy-held beaches.
0:03:42 > 0:03:46Critically, when Newsnight broke the news that there were plans
0:03:46 > 0:03:49to get rid of the amphibious landing fleet, it touched off angry scenes
0:03:49 > 0:03:50in Parliament.
0:03:50 > 0:03:56Why should thousands of soldiers, sailors and airmen be
0:03:56 > 0:04:02lost, elite units be merged, or aircraft, frigates and vital
0:04:02 > 0:04:04amphibious vessels be scrapped long before their out of service
0:04:04 > 0:04:05dates?
0:04:05 > 0:04:08When Michael Fallon resigned in November, his successor, Gavin
0:04:08 > 0:04:10Williamson, got the Prime Minister's backing to stop the original
0:04:10 > 0:04:13cost-cutting exercise.
0:04:13 > 0:04:19Now we can expect a full Strategic Defence and
0:04:19 > 0:04:24Security Review in the spring and summer.
0:04:24 > 0:04:26And today, the Army Chief
0:04:26 > 0:04:33set the stage, warning that Britain must do more to counter Russia's
0:04:33 > 0:04:34enhanced military capabilities, and
0:04:34 > 0:04:35willingness to use them.
0:04:35 > 0:04:37I believe our ability to pre-empt or respond
0:04:37 > 0:04:40to these threats will be eroded if we don't match up to them now.
0:04:40 > 0:04:43They represent a clear and present danger.
0:04:43 > 0:04:51Critical to the exercise now is not just an attempt to balance
0:04:52 > 0:04:55the books, but to define the purpose of the British Armed Forces
0:04:55 > 0:04:56post-Brexit.
0:04:56 > 0:04:58What hard power role does global Britain expects to play,
0:04:58 > 0:05:04and how much will that cost?
0:05:04 > 0:05:07If Britain keeps on cutting.
0:05:07 > 0:05:15An army of 60,000 was mooted in the last exercise.
0:05:18 > 0:05:20But what role can it really play in helping
0:05:20 > 0:05:22its friends, or making any
0:05:22 > 0:05:23realistic preparations for war against another state?
0:05:23 > 0:05:25And Mark Urban is with me now.
0:05:25 > 0:05:31Ye used the word cutting, Mark. An existing policy, is spending going
0:05:31 > 0:05:36up?Cutting of capability is what was in visit in this exercise in the
0:05:36 > 0:05:41last few months. The Gus MacPherson, we are spending more and more. --
0:05:41 > 0:05:45the Government says. It is more and more each year, a guarantee to spend
0:05:45 > 0:05:51more of the information on equipment. It's not enough, though.
0:05:51 > 0:05:55Critically, the appreciation of sterling on big programmes like the
0:05:55 > 0:05:59F-35 fighter, Trident replacement, has bitten in far more deeply than
0:05:59 > 0:06:03those rises can cope with. The forces have done what they've been
0:06:03 > 0:06:07doing constantly since the war, they've overstepped the programme.
0:06:07 > 0:06:10They've put into many things, they cannot afford all of their
0:06:10 > 0:06:16ambitions.We are going to have the Strategic Defence Review this year.
0:06:16 > 0:06:20Let's suppose we are going to do one now in our guests with what the
0:06:20 > 0:06:24priorities are. What is the question and white with you the most critical
0:06:24 > 0:06:28question is, the average member of the publicthinks the Armed Forces
0:06:28 > 0:06:32are here to fight other countries if that really has to happen. But the
0:06:32 > 0:06:36truth is, since the end of the Cold War, Britain simply doesn't have
0:06:36 > 0:06:42that ability any more. And you can park Russia and China. I mean, they
0:06:42 > 0:06:46really mega- once, for a bit. Any country or non-state actor, and
0:06:46 > 0:06:51there are some, that can attack warships with fast at supersonic and
0:06:51 > 0:06:56shipping missiles, people with submarines, that could be Iran,
0:06:56 > 0:06:59North Korea, people with sophisticated air defence networks,
0:06:59 > 0:07:05all of these countries have capabilities that the UK, really
0:07:05 > 0:07:09either match, resist or take on. Even the air defences of a country
0:07:09 > 0:07:13like Syria were causing consternation in the MoD when they
0:07:13 > 0:07:18were asked seriously to look at 2013 at whether or not the UK could do
0:07:18 > 0:07:24strikes. It is really about any other country with sophisticated
0:07:24 > 0:07:28weapons, fast jets, missiles, submarines, and, critically, once it
0:07:28 > 0:07:33starts, the stocks of things like torpedoes, anti-aircraft missiles,
0:07:33 > 0:07:36artillery shells, are so low that Britain couldn't fight literally for
0:07:36 > 0:07:41more than a day or two.Mark, that's a good question, thank you very
0:07:41 > 0:07:43much. Let's raise that.
0:07:43 > 0:07:45Joining me now is Conservative MP and former British Army
0:07:45 > 0:07:49Captain Johnny Mercer.
0:07:49 > 0:07:51I'm also joined by military historian
0:07:51 > 0:07:52and commentator Max Hastings.
0:07:52 > 0:07:54And Kishwer Falkner, Liberal Democrat peer and former
0:07:54 > 0:07:58National Security Strategy Committee member.
0:07:58 > 0:08:00Former Assistant US Secretary of Defense, Graham Allison -
0:08:00 > 0:08:02he's now Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the
0:08:02 > 0:08:03Harvard Kennedy School.
0:08:03 > 0:08:07He joins us from the US.
0:08:07 > 0:08:11I will start with you if I may, Graham Allison, thank you for
0:08:11 > 0:08:16joining us. I want an American perspective on a medium power,
0:08:16 > 0:08:21medium-sized power, just off Europe, across the Atlantic, watch it we be
0:08:21 > 0:08:25spending on defence and what do you think of our role is being so what
0:08:25 > 0:08:31should we be spending?It is a tough set of questions and I know people
0:08:31 > 0:08:36will struggle with it. But I think Britain historically has played a
0:08:36 > 0:08:39crucial role of leadership in Europe. Britain will not be able to
0:08:39 > 0:08:43defend its off against Russia. But Britain as part of an alliance can
0:08:43 > 0:08:48hope to create a stable Europe, which in fact we've actually done
0:08:48 > 0:08:52and seen in the period since World War II, including after the Cold
0:08:52 > 0:08:56War. So, Britain's military forces are most of all about getting it a
0:08:56 > 0:09:01seat at the table and a voice in trying to shape sensible policy in
0:09:01 > 0:09:09Europe.
0:09:09 > 0:09:11Europe. And indeed in the relationship with the US.That's a
0:09:11 > 0:09:14really clear answer. Let me put this to you, I think we get a seat at the
0:09:14 > 0:09:17table if we spent 2% of our national income on defence, that is the
0:09:17 > 0:09:19native target. Most other Nato countries are not even spending
0:09:19 > 0:09:25that. Should that be our aspiration, or should we go further to attain
0:09:25 > 0:09:31that medium power role for ourselves?I believe the 2% is
0:09:31 > 0:09:34important symbolically, because persuading Americans that we should
0:09:34 > 0:09:40spend more of our taxpayers' money to defend Europe than Europeans do
0:09:40 > 0:09:45is not a long-term winning proposition. Trump expresses the
0:09:45 > 0:09:51scepticism, it has a widespread view in the US. I don't agree with that,
0:09:51 > 0:09:56but certainly the majority would do so. I think that having, that
0:09:56 > 0:10:00keeping the US significantly in the game and having Europeans play their
0:10:00 > 0:10:04part is very important. Secondly, more important than how much money
0:10:04 > 0:10:09is spent, I think it's crucial to meet the 2% criteria, but more
0:10:09 > 0:10:14important is what to buy. And I think unfortunately, both in the
0:10:14 > 0:10:18American defence budget and in the British defence budget, we are way
0:10:18 > 0:10:24too far in the legacy systems that are hugely expensive, and too short
0:10:24 > 0:10:27on new technologies that could make a more significant difference.
0:10:27 > 0:10:31That's the place where I would drill down if I were part of the British
0:10:31 > 0:10:35strategic review.Graham Allison, thank you so much, that's a really
0:10:35 > 0:10:39clear start to this does the Goschen. Let me turn to my other
0:10:39 > 0:10:43guests. Max Hastings, I want you to paint for me a scenario that we
0:10:43 > 0:10:45couldn't deal with now but you think we should be able to deal with,
0:10:45 > 0:10:54because you
0:10:54 > 0:10:56because you think we should be spending more.The Russians our
0:10:56 > 0:10:58overtime trying to push the frontiers, especially in the Baltic
0:10:58 > 0:11:01states. We have a small contingent in the Baltic states up in the
0:11:01 > 0:11:04moment. What Nick Carter was saying, this is intended as a wake-up call.
0:11:04 > 0:11:05In recent years, we have been looking overwhelmingly at a
0:11:05 > 0:11:08terrorist threat to Britain and we have been worrying most about what
0:11:08 > 0:11:12terrorists can do on the streets. Nick Carter says we are living in a
0:11:12 > 0:11:18new World...It is an old world, isn't it?!Not quite. The old idea
0:11:18 > 0:11:23that you have a state of peace and a state of war is off the agenda. What
0:11:23 > 0:11:30Graham Allison among other people have written a very vivid account of
0:11:30 > 0:11:34in the last year or two is that we have moved into a new world in which
0:11:34 > 0:11:37we are never going to have, hopefully, we may not have a big war
0:11:37 > 0:11:39but we are very unlikely to have absolute peace. And we are going to
0:11:39 > 0:11:43be having to cope with all sorts of threats of different levels.
0:11:43 > 0:11:47Electronic threats, cyber threats, and also perhaps low-level military
0:11:47 > 0:11:51threats in places like the Baltic states. Nick Carter said today, you
0:11:51 > 0:11:54said one platoon of boots on the ground is worth more than a squadron
0:11:54 > 0:11:59of aircraft. At the moment, last summer, an American general said to
0:11:59 > 0:12:04me, very frankly and bluntly, he said the British Armed Forces have
0:12:04 > 0:12:07now become so small that they are not taken seriously by either your
0:12:07 > 0:12:11friends or your enemies. And I said, I hope the next time that you see
0:12:11 > 0:12:14our Prime Minister, you say that to her. Americans are often too polite
0:12:14 > 0:12:20to us, they don't tell us what they are really thinking.That's the
0:12:20 > 0:12:25scenario, a Russian incursion into Estonia or something like that where
0:12:25 > 0:12:28we want to be players. Do you agree we should be able to make a real
0:12:28 > 0:12:31contribution on an occasion like that was not absolutely. We are
0:12:31 > 0:12:35committed to it through Nato membershipapart from anything else.
0:12:35 > 0:12:39But it also comes back to a situation where we can't... The
0:12:39 > 0:12:44public have got to use the wars of choice. Was in far-away places where
0:12:44 > 0:12:47we have informed debate, we have debates in Parliament and then we
0:12:47 > 0:12:52decide whether we want to intervene or not. Wrongly, in my opinion, in
0:12:52 > 0:12:562013 on Syria, when we should have intervened. But I don't think the
0:12:56 > 0:13:01public understands that there is such a thing as a potential European
0:13:01 > 0:13:06theatre. And there is such a thing as state to state warfare in a way
0:13:06 > 0:13:11that they haven't seen in new generations.Quickly, Johnny Mercer,
0:13:11 > 0:13:15do you agree that we need to be able to deal with that kind of situation.
0:13:15 > 0:13:19I just want to see if you all agree? The only thing that should define
0:13:19 > 0:13:23the size and strength of the Armed Forces is the Afri Sarries we are
0:13:23 > 0:13:28against. You could talk about 2%... You could say, Estonia, we don't
0:13:28 > 0:13:33have to care about it?That is a line on the ground, it's the whole
0:13:33 > 0:13:36process of Russian aggression and what they have done in Ukraine and
0:13:36 > 0:13:44how it has
0:13:44 > 0:13:46how it has manifested itself in different types of what.What I want
0:13:46 > 0:13:49to get is how much extra we have to spend in order to deliver that. We
0:13:49 > 0:13:52are at 2% of GDP. 2.5%, 3%, what is it?The chap from America had it
0:13:52 > 0:13:56spot on. That is a signal of intent. The real question is, what is the
0:13:56 > 0:14:00future of the British Armed Forces? What do we want from them, what is
0:14:00 > 0:14:05the threat we are up against?If we want to go into Estonia and make a
0:14:05 > 0:14:08contribution...It should be welcomed that Nick Carter has come
0:14:08 > 0:14:10forward with a light in point of view that the character of conflict
0:14:10 > 0:14:15has changed, we have to have a national discussion, because
0:14:15 > 0:14:19taxpayers pay for it ultimately.I will come back to you. What do you
0:14:19 > 0:14:24think we need extra to spend?
0:14:24 > 0:14:30The right way round to look at this is not to say, should it be 1%, 2%,
0:14:30 > 0:14:35we should be saying what can we do in the New World. We have had
0:14:35 > 0:14:39defence review after defence review, and they are always a joke. We have
0:14:39 > 0:14:43so many ring fenced areas. I believe that the Trident nuclear deterrent
0:14:43 > 0:14:49is no longer relevant to the particular situation we are in. But
0:14:49 > 0:14:53no British political party is willing to talk about that. Nobody
0:14:53 > 0:15:00is willing to talk about
0:15:00 > 0:15:02is willing to talk about scrapping the Gurkhas. Until we have a
0:15:02 > 0:15:04realistic defence review in which we look realistically at the threats
0:15:04 > 0:15:08out there and what we want to achieve, until we stop playing
0:15:08 > 0:15:13political games, we are not going to have credible Armed Forces.Do you
0:15:13 > 0:15:17have an idea? I buy everything USA in, you need to work out what you're
0:15:17 > 0:15:22going to do. And the Chancellor, you are the Defence Secretary, how much
0:15:22 > 0:15:28actually do you need, 2 billion, 20 billion?You need a fairly
0:15:28 > 0:15:31significant chunk extra. It is impossible to put a figure, but
0:15:31 > 0:15:38there are a couple of things you could do. You could remove cyber
0:15:38 > 0:15:44from the budget and have a corporate levy or something like that, because
0:15:44 > 0:15:49our cyber defence capabilities are used across the board by public
0:15:49 > 0:15:54institutions and things like that, you could look at the defence review
0:15:54 > 0:15:59and the capabilities that you need, and then very carefully see where
0:15:59 > 0:16:03you can get the maximum value added. We have got two aircraft carriers.
0:16:03 > 0:16:08We know that we will never be able to have task force groups for both
0:16:08 > 0:16:14of them, so we need to think how we ended up having two. It is done for
0:16:14 > 0:16:20political reasons.The most important point in this whole debate
0:16:20 > 0:16:25is this is an attempt, rather brave attempt, backed by the Defence
0:16:25 > 0:16:28Secretary, to try to get the British public to look at what is going on
0:16:28 > 0:16:32out there in the world.He is the elected MP and has voted to deal
0:16:32 > 0:16:38with. Extra money for the NHS defence?The NHS in some ways is
0:16:38 > 0:16:40similar because the challenge throughout the NHS is changing all
0:16:40 > 0:16:46the time. With defence, it is the same. The threat is changing. And as
0:16:46 > 0:16:52politicians, we have to meet that. There is no use having your...You
0:16:52 > 0:16:58want more money... You want more money on defence, more money on the
0:16:58 > 0:17:03NHS, you're not going to have extra borrowing. You need taxes to go up.
0:17:03 > 0:17:07It is not a grown-up question to say it is got to be the NHS or defence.
0:17:07 > 0:17:10In a grown-up world we have to look at the whole range of issues facing
0:17:10 > 0:17:14government, and it is what happening at the moment is that government has
0:17:14 > 0:17:20to become so fixated with the NHS and social spending that we are not
0:17:20 > 0:17:24thinking nearly hard enough about security.But if taxes have to go
0:17:24 > 0:17:30up, they have to go up.Thank you all very much indeed.
0:17:30 > 0:17:33Well, having talked about defence, we can turn to war now -
0:17:33 > 0:17:35as that is where Ukip finds itself at.
0:17:35 > 0:17:36The leader, Henry Bolton, is not resigning.
0:17:36 > 0:17:39He came out just after 4pm this afternoon to tell us that.
0:17:39 > 0:17:41But 14 or 15 of his senior colleagues -
0:17:41 > 0:17:44we've literally lost count - have quit their roles
0:17:44 > 0:17:45because they want him to go.
0:17:45 > 0:17:47The party's National Executive Committee had already voted
0:17:47 > 0:17:49no confidence in him, but Mr Bolton chose not
0:17:49 > 0:17:52to bow to the pressure, and instead promised to take
0:17:52 > 0:17:53on the party apparatchiks.
0:17:53 > 0:17:54He said he'd "drain the swamp".
0:17:54 > 0:18:02John Sweeney has been following today's Ukip developments.
0:18:11 > 0:18:20This happy breed of men, this little world, this precious stone, is now
0:18:20 > 0:18:27banned in with shame, with inky blocks and rotten parchment. That
0:18:27 > 0:18:36Ukip, that was want to conquer others,
0:18:36 > 0:18:43others, hath made a shameful conquest of itself. Four years ago,
0:18:43 > 0:18:48Ukip won more votes than any other party in the European elections.
0:18:48 > 0:18:53Eventually forcing David Cameron's hand to call the Brexit referendum.
0:18:53 > 0:18:55I will go to Parliament and propose that the British people decide our
0:18:55 > 0:19:02future in Europe through and in/ out referendum on Thursday the 23rd of
0:19:02 > 0:19:09June.That one, then Nigel Farage quit, Diane James was queen of Ukip
0:19:09 > 0:19:14to 18 days, then came Paul Nuttall, who fell after the party got a
0:19:14 > 0:19:19drubbing in the general election. Next, Henry Bolton. The former Army
0:19:19 > 0:19:24trooper made a splash when he said he could kill a badger with his own
0:19:24 > 0:19:27hands. When it came out that he had left his Russian wife from model
0:19:27 > 0:19:32half his age, that was bad. When she was found to have tweeted racist
0:19:32 > 0:19:38claptrap about Prince Harry's bride to be, Meghan Markle, that was bad
0:19:38 > 0:19:46bad. Today Mr Bolton put his foot down.I shall respect the next steps
0:19:46 > 0:19:49in the constitutional process, and will therefore not be resigning as
0:19:49 > 0:19:54party leader. I shall repeat, I will not be resigning as party leader. It
0:19:54 > 0:19:58is now time to put an end to the infighting that has been going on
0:19:58 > 0:20:02within the party for some time. And to remove those who have been part
0:20:02 > 0:20:09of that. In a single phrase, it is time to drain the swamp.This swamp
0:20:09 > 0:20:14dwelling disagrees.I think it is a foolish decision. I have no reason
0:20:14 > 0:20:17to believe that the party will support him. In fact, I think he
0:20:17 > 0:20:23will go down to an overwhelming defeat, which will add further
0:20:23 > 0:20:26humiliation to his recent experiences. I think it is all very
0:20:26 > 0:20:31sad. We tried the men in grey suits, perhaps now it is time for the men
0:20:31 > 0:20:35in white coats. He seems to me to have lost all touch with reality.
0:20:35 > 0:20:39The troubled leader, when looking for a shoulder to cry on, and
0:20:39 > 0:20:45tonight found anything but.You have turned this into a soap opera, and
0:20:45 > 0:20:49in doing so have brought the party into disrepute.I wouldn't agree
0:20:49 > 0:20:53with that, Nigel. At the meeting yesterday, there wasn't one charge
0:20:53 > 0:20:58laid against me apart from that I had left my wife.What is Henry
0:20:58 > 0:21:02Bolton do if it all goes wrong next month?I'll cross that bridge when I
0:21:02 > 0:21:07come to it. I am still going to be campaigning solidly. I am not going
0:21:07 > 0:21:12to go away in that respect, no way. Henry Bolton can't last long, so
0:21:12 > 0:21:18focus returns to the party's once and perhaps future king. Someone
0:21:18 > 0:21:21once said of Nigel Farage he doesn't just want to be the bride at the
0:21:21 > 0:21:26wedding but also the corpse at the funeral. With Ukip going the way it
0:21:26 > 0:21:32is, he may well get his wish.
0:21:32 > 0:21:34Now I'll speak to Suzanne Evans, former Deputy Chairwoman of Ukip
0:21:34 > 0:21:37and a former leadership candidate for the party.
0:21:37 > 0:21:43Good evening to you. What happens if Henry Bolton doesn't go, do you
0:21:43 > 0:21:52think?I really wish he would, as I think do the majority of members in
0:21:52 > 0:21:56Ukip. He really has brought the party into disrepute, and it's not
0:21:56 > 0:22:01just about the fact he left his wife and very young children, the fact
0:22:01 > 0:22:06that he's taken up with a woman who is younger than his eldest daughter.
0:22:06 > 0:22:10There is actually a little bit more to it than that. The membership
0:22:10 > 0:22:14feels very strongly that they've been misled from the start about the
0:22:14 > 0:22:17nature of this relationship, and NEC members, too, have pointed out that
0:22:17 > 0:22:21it wasn't just about his personal life and the chaos that is brought
0:22:21 > 0:22:26to the party, but it is about other things as well. One NEC member today
0:22:26 > 0:22:31saying it was about his mishandling of events, his political naivete,
0:22:31 > 0:22:37negligence in his role, Mr deadlines and political ineptitude. So I
0:22:37 > 0:22:40really do wish he would go, as do most other people, I think. This
0:22:40 > 0:22:44whole farce that we are now going to have an emergency general meeting
0:22:44 > 0:22:48which is going to cost time and money, at which I fear he is going
0:22:48 > 0:22:53to be humiliated, just seems like a pointless attempt to cling on to
0:22:53 > 0:22:57what, really? He has lost the support of a robbery.Why don't you
0:22:57 > 0:23:02leave Ukip has joined the Conservatives, active interest?I
0:23:02 > 0:23:06think there is very much a role for Ukip in public life. I think people
0:23:06 > 0:23:11today have been very keen to try and say that Ukip's finished, but this
0:23:11 > 0:23:15is its 25th year, and there hasn't been a single year in which someone
0:23:15 > 0:23:21somewhere hasn't said, Ukip is finished, it's all over, probably.
0:23:21 > 0:23:25We are still polling above the Green party. Just last week we had triple
0:23:25 > 0:23:31the Lib Dem vote in a local election by-election in Bolton. I don't think
0:23:31 > 0:23:39anyone's talking about the demise of the Lib Dems all the greens.But you
0:23:39 > 0:23:43don't seem to get on with each other. I can't find any policy
0:23:43 > 0:23:47difference between you all. It seems to be totally personal. What is it
0:23:47 > 0:23:51about Ukip people that has made this party so dysfunctional over the last
0:23:51 > 0:23:57couple of years, do you think?My first years in Ukip were actually,
0:23:57 > 0:24:02it was a honeymoon period I suppose if you like, and I really do trace
0:24:02 > 0:24:06this back to 2015 when Nigel Farage failed to get elected in Thanet
0:24:06 > 0:24:10South as he desperately wanted to do, seemed to throw all his toys out
0:24:10 > 0:24:19of the pram. There was this disastrous
0:24:19 > 0:24:25disastrous resignation and unresignation which again seemed to
0:24:25 > 0:24:28bring disrepute to the party, and I think from there it has been
0:24:28 > 0:24:35downhill all the way. And I think it is a bit rich of Henry to talk about
0:24:35 > 0:24:38kicking and people who have been involved in infighting, he could
0:24:38 > 0:24:42probably be kicking out quite a few people including Nigel Farage and
0:24:42 > 0:24:47himself.It will make a great episode in the reunion one-day!
0:24:47 > 0:24:50Suzanne, thank you very much indeed.
0:24:50 > 0:24:52There is someone you really need to know more about.
0:24:52 > 0:24:54He is Olly Robbins, the Prime Minister's Chief European Advisor.
0:24:54 > 0:24:56Her sherpa, to use the European language.
0:24:56 > 0:24:59He is a public servant, and his job is basically
0:24:59 > 0:25:00to help deliver Brexit.
0:25:00 > 0:25:02As far as that's concerned, you might say he's the second most
0:25:02 > 0:25:05important person in this country after Theresa May -
0:25:05 > 0:25:06although David Davis and Boris Johnson might
0:25:06 > 0:25:07beg to differ.
0:25:07 > 0:25:10I suspect if you don't know Olly Robbins' name already,
0:25:10 > 0:25:11you'll get to hear it this year.
0:25:11 > 0:25:12But don't wait.
0:25:12 > 0:25:15Our Political Editor, Nick Watt, has been scouting around looking
0:25:15 > 0:25:22at what Mr Robbins is up to.
0:25:22 > 0:25:28Brexit is the most radical change of direction for this country.
0:25:28 > 0:25:30The idea that any bureaucrat could be in favour of radical
0:25:30 > 0:25:34change is a nonsense.
0:25:34 > 0:25:36The civil service may well have its own agenda.
0:25:36 > 0:25:38But ultimately, with a strong government,
0:25:38 > 0:25:40it should be the Goverment's will that the civil
0:25:40 > 0:25:45service implements.
0:25:45 > 0:25:47I don't think that, watching him with three Prime Ministers,
0:25:47 > 0:25:50there'd ever be a moment that he would be in any way be
0:25:50 > 0:25:53patronising about the fact that he, you know, has more information
0:25:53 > 0:25:55at his fingertips.
0:25:55 > 0:25:59He's one of the tallest men in the British Establishment,
0:25:59 > 0:26:03with one of the lowest profiles.
0:26:03 > 0:26:05Yet he wields some of the greatest powers.
0:26:05 > 0:26:08He's never at the centre of attention.
0:26:08 > 0:26:12But he's always in the room, by the Prime Minister's side.
0:26:12 > 0:26:15Olly Robbins, Theresa May's Chief Adviser on Europe,
0:26:15 > 0:26:19is being dubbed 'the real Brexit Secretary'.
0:26:19 > 0:26:24Possibly eclipsing David Davis.
0:26:24 > 0:26:26Beyond the world of Whitehall, most people have no idea
0:26:26 > 0:26:31who Olly Robbins is.
0:26:31 > 0:26:34But, day by day, he is shaping the nature of Britain's departure
0:26:34 > 0:26:35from the European Union.
0:26:35 > 0:26:38He has the Prime Minister's ear in Downing Street,
0:26:38 > 0:26:41and he's in the engine room for the nitty-gritty of the Brexit
0:26:41 > 0:26:48negotiations in Brussels.
0:26:53 > 0:27:00Well, every European Prime Minister or President has an Olly Robbins.
0:27:00 > 0:27:02Has someone who works closely with them, whom they trust,
0:27:02 > 0:27:04who is in permanent contact with all the others.
0:27:04 > 0:27:06These are people who telephone each other, e-mail each
0:27:06 > 0:27:11other, text each other.
0:27:11 > 0:27:13The actual formal meeting where we all see people sitting
0:27:13 > 0:27:21around a table for a split second, that's the tip of the iceberg.
0:27:22 > 0:27:25A recent adviser to Theresa May says Olly Robbins has a knack of winning
0:27:25 > 0:27:33the confidence of Prime Ministers and senior mandarins.
0:27:33 > 0:27:36Olly was somebody who really had the full trust of that team.
0:27:36 > 0:27:38Had the full trust of the Prime Minister,
0:27:38 > 0:27:41had the full trust of Jeremy Heywood as well, and was able to really sort
0:27:41 > 0:27:45of on meetings and run meetings in a way that made the process very
0:27:45 > 0:27:47smooth and very effective, and probably one of just a few
0:27:47 > 0:27:55officials who actually had that level of trust and access, I think.
0:27:57 > 0:28:01So, what are the instincts of the man shepherding us
0:28:01 > 0:28:04through this defining moment in British history?
0:28:04 > 0:28:06A good starting point is the place where his worldview
0:28:06 > 0:28:14began to take shape.
0:28:14 > 0:28:17Olly Robbins embarked on the first steps of what must have looked
0:28:17 > 0:28:19like a classic journey through the Establishment
0:28:19 > 0:28:20when he studied politics, philosophy and economics
0:28:20 > 0:28:26here at Oxford in the 1990s.
0:28:26 > 0:28:28But there's a twist.
0:28:28 > 0:28:30He chose Hertford College, which, despite the wooden panelling,
0:28:30 > 0:28:37has pioneered a much more inclusive admissions policy.
0:28:37 > 0:28:39An Oxford contemporary who later worked with Olly Robbins
0:28:39 > 0:28:45in Downing Street had an inkling he would go far.
0:28:45 > 0:28:48Even at university, it was already clear that this was a guy
0:28:48 > 0:28:51who was going to make a success of whatever he did.
0:28:51 > 0:28:55I think it was fair to say he's the sort of person you'd be more
0:28:55 > 0:28:59likely to see in tweed than in a football kit.
0:28:59 > 0:29:01You know, but that phenomenal brain was very much there.
0:29:01 > 0:29:09But also that sense of humour.
0:29:10 > 0:29:13The intellectual clout of this modern college in an ancient setting
0:29:13 > 0:29:15was shown when Olly Robbins and three other graduates
0:29:15 > 0:29:17of Hertford controlled intelligence at the heart of Whitehall.
0:29:17 > 0:29:20The Hertford Gang say it was a conspiracy that never existed.
0:29:20 > 0:29:25I've spoken to one Tory Brexiteer who went to a grander Oxford
0:29:25 > 0:29:33college, and is wary of Olly Robbins.
0:29:35 > 0:29:37"They're all commie geographers", this Tory told me of
0:29:37 > 0:29:40the Hertford College alumni.
0:29:40 > 0:29:43Brexiteers were delighted when it emerged that at Oxford,
0:29:43 > 0:29:45the young Olly Robbins had written that the Soviet Union
0:29:45 > 0:29:53wasn't all bad.
0:29:53 > 0:29:56I understand that David Davis, the actual Brexit Secretary,
0:29:56 > 0:30:01who has something of a prickly relationship with Olly Robbins,
0:30:01 > 0:30:04has a habit of opening meetings with him by welcoming colleagues
0:30:04 > 0:30:08to the Olly Robbins People's Soviet.
0:30:08 > 0:30:12Everyone reportedly has a chuckle.
0:30:12 > 0:30:14But some Leave ministers are suspicious of him,
0:30:14 > 0:30:17and regard him as a classic civil servant who sees Brexit is a crisis
0:30:17 > 0:30:23to be managed rather than an opportunity to be seized.
0:30:23 > 0:30:26I was, as you know, a member of the Thatcher government.
0:30:26 > 0:30:29We came in and introduced a radical change in economic policy.
0:30:29 > 0:30:30And all the officials were aghast.
0:30:30 > 0:30:34They thought it would be a disaster.
0:30:34 > 0:30:37But at that time we had a strong Cabinet, led by an outstanding
0:30:37 > 0:30:39Prime Minister, and they accepted the leadership, the
0:30:39 > 0:30:47political leadership, as is constitutional duty.
0:30:49 > 0:30:52If a soft Brexit is being negotiated, it must be
0:30:52 > 0:30:54the will of the Prime Minister and her Cabinet.
0:30:54 > 0:30:57How can we possibly be in a position where the Cabinet
0:30:57 > 0:30:59and the Prime Minister has a certain direction and the Civil Service
0:30:59 > 0:31:02is taking it a different way?
0:31:02 > 0:31:10That surely is a sign of a weak government.
0:31:13 > 0:31:16Olly Robbins fears that the Cabinet Brexiteers,
0:31:16 > 0:31:20notably Michael Gove and Boris Johnson, are on his case.
0:31:20 > 0:31:22He worked hard to win them over in the run-up
0:31:22 > 0:31:25to the Prime Minister's EU speech in Florence last September,
0:31:25 > 0:31:30making changes on the way.
0:31:30 > 0:31:33But in the tense week in December when the phase one Brexit
0:31:33 > 0:31:35negotiation deal appeared to be on the verge of collapse,
0:31:35 > 0:31:38there was some frustration in the Cabinet Office that those
0:31:38 > 0:31:43ministers were less supportive.
0:31:43 > 0:31:46Well, I think, inevitably, because of the role that Boris
0:31:46 > 0:31:48and Michael played during the Leave campaign, clearly they are big
0:31:48 > 0:31:51figures who need to be part of this process and brought into it.
0:31:51 > 0:31:54And from what I've seen, I think Olly deals with them
0:31:54 > 0:31:55and their offices very effectively.
0:31:55 > 0:32:03And again, brings a level of diplomacy to the whole thing.
0:32:08 > 0:32:11Deep in the basement of the Guardian newspaper lies one final clue
0:32:11 > 0:32:13to the character of Olly Robbins.
0:32:13 > 0:32:14Ruthlessness tinged with impeccable manners.
0:32:14 > 0:32:22Angle grinders and drills were wielded by senior Guardian
0:32:24 > 0:32:27editors to destroy files which had been leaked to them
0:32:27 > 0:32:30by Edward Snowden.
0:32:30 > 0:32:32Olly Robbins had issued a stern warning to the Guardian
0:32:32 > 0:32:35that its continued possession of the files marked a threat
0:32:35 > 0:32:40to national security.
0:32:40 > 0:32:43He brokered a deal where the files were sawn to bits in an operation
0:32:43 > 0:32:46supervised by Government agents.
0:32:46 > 0:32:48"Punctiliously polite" was the Guardian verdict
0:32:48 > 0:32:54on their Whitehall adversary.
0:32:54 > 0:32:56So, a consummate Whitehall operator with experience in the smoke
0:32:56 > 0:32:59and mirrors world of intelligence is guiding the Brexit process.
0:32:59 > 0:33:02But in his mind, the painful business of cutting deals and making
0:33:02 > 0:33:10compromises lies in the hands of his political controller.
0:33:22 > 0:33:28Nick Wood what is with me. It was interesting to hear Lord Lawson --
0:33:28 > 0:33:34Nick Watt. He is so wary of the civil service's role, their mindset
0:33:34 > 0:33:37and ability to thwart all of this. Civil servants were frustrated
0:33:37 > 0:33:42because it goes against the grain, but those remarks have clearly
0:33:42 > 0:33:46struck a raw nerve in Whitehall, because the Cabinet Secretary Sir
0:33:46 > 0:33:49Jeremy Heywood has this evening rally to the defence of the civil
0:33:49 > 0:33:54service. He doesn't speak out that much, but he issued a statement the
0:33:54 > 0:33:59Newsnight after the comments by Lord Lawson about the civil service in
0:33:59 > 0:34:04general. Sir Jeremy says the civil service take great pride in
0:34:04 > 0:34:08supporting the elected government of the day, and the mission is to
0:34:08 > 0:34:12deliver Brexit. He says the civil service is putting enormous effort,
0:34:12 > 0:34:16and many of its very best people into making a success of the
0:34:16 > 0:34:21project, that is Brexit. He says, interestingly, it is being tested on
0:34:21 > 0:34:27a daily basis and I'm very proud of what we have so far delivered.OK,
0:34:27 > 0:34:31it is a sensitive point, but the civil service strikes back. Nick,
0:34:31 > 0:34:33thank you very much.
0:34:33 > 0:34:34Now, have a look at these images.
0:34:34 > 0:34:37These show something pretty everyday in parts of Africa: a woman kneeling
0:34:37 > 0:34:40at the feet of an elder.
0:34:40 > 0:34:43It is a traditional way in some cultures of a woman showing respect.
0:34:43 > 0:34:46In some, you might find men doing the same, but it's not as common.
0:34:46 > 0:34:49Now, of course, for years this kind of greeting has been taken
0:34:49 > 0:34:51for granted in certain African cultures, just as curtseying
0:34:51 > 0:34:54to the Queen is here. But we now live in a globalised era,
0:34:54 > 0:34:56where news, culture and people travel.
0:34:56 > 0:34:58And clearly, from a Western perspective, kneeling can be seen
0:34:58 > 0:35:03as an undignified reminder of women's low social status imposed
0:35:03 > 0:35:05by a male-run society.
0:35:05 > 0:35:08So, it was just a matter of time before the practice
0:35:08 > 0:35:08came to be challenged.
0:35:08 > 0:35:10And it was the Head of Oxfam International,
0:35:10 > 0:35:14Winnie Byanyima, who was born in Uganda but lives in Britain,
0:35:14 > 0:35:17who sparked a row about it, tweeting, "How do we stop
0:35:17 > 0:35:20this humiliating practice?"
0:35:20 > 0:35:22Well, this may sound like just another debate about gender
0:35:22 > 0:35:25and identity politics, but it cuts across the usual lines.
0:35:25 > 0:35:29For some, Byanyima is speaking up for women.
0:35:29 > 0:35:32For others, she's disrespectful of the cultural heritage
0:35:32 > 0:35:34of the African societies that practice kneeling.
0:35:34 > 0:35:39I'm joined by Dami Olonisakin and Nicky Olatubosun.
0:35:39 > 0:35:44I am joined by two women from cultures where kneeling is common.
0:35:44 > 0:35:49Dami, tell us about the kneeling, when do you kneel, or what form does
0:35:49 > 0:35:53the kneeling cakes, why do you kneel?Kneeling is a form of
0:35:53 > 0:35:58respect. When you greet someone who is older than you, you do this to a
0:35:58 > 0:36:04family, you do this to relatives. It is a very popular part of Yoruba
0:36:04 > 0:36:07culture within Nigeria. It is something that both men and women
0:36:07 > 0:36:15do. It is not just one-sided. It's something that everybody does.It is
0:36:15 > 0:36:19actually your need touching the ground, it is not just bending down.
0:36:19 > 0:36:24It can be, depending on how old the person is, the last time you saw
0:36:24 > 0:36:28them, if it was someone quite close to you.The further down you go, the
0:36:28 > 0:36:34more respect?You could definitely say that, yes.I understand, Nicky,
0:36:34 > 0:36:39that of course men and women do do it. But it is a gender element or
0:36:39 > 0:36:44not?Personally I feel like it is to do with both genders. Men are
0:36:44 > 0:36:48supposed to prostrate, my done on the ground, and women are supposed
0:36:48 > 0:36:53in Neil Stubley but the men don't always prostrate themselves. No,
0:36:53 > 0:36:57they don't.It is no different to how women gently bend down
0:36:57 > 0:37:02sometimes. I feel like as long as you are signalling that type of
0:37:02 > 0:37:05respect, you are still acknowledging that somebody is older than you and
0:37:05 > 0:37:10your store greeting them. Nobody is asking you to plank on the floor!
0:37:10 > 0:37:13The traditional serving your husband's meal, how does that go,
0:37:13 > 0:37:22Nicky?You are meant to hold it out to him like he is a king.That
0:37:22 > 0:37:27sounds like quite a gender thing. Most definitely, especially within
0:37:27 > 0:37:30Nigeria and culture, we believe that the man is the head of the house,
0:37:30 > 0:37:38but it is not necessarily something that all cultures do.It is
0:37:38 > 0:37:41interesting and complicated. Nicky, you are not keen on it and think it
0:37:41 > 0:37:46is past its sell by date.Well, basically... I feel like I shouldn't
0:37:46 > 0:37:50have the kneel down, like, I understand, OK, it's about the
0:37:50 > 0:37:55respect part of it. I'm respecting my elders. I feel like you can be
0:37:55 > 0:37:59verbally respectful. I can do a new balance, a Coetzee, I shouldn't have
0:37:59 > 0:38:03the kneel on the ground to greet you. Especially when my parents
0:38:03 > 0:38:10don't
0:38:10 > 0:38:12don't require it. -- a curtsy. I shouldn't have to kneel down to
0:38:12 > 0:38:15someone else.You know, I feel like in different cultures all over the
0:38:15 > 0:38:17world there are different ways that we use nonverbal actions to display
0:38:17 > 0:38:20a form of greeting, I don't feel it should be scrapped. It has been done
0:38:20 > 0:38:24for centuries. Just being able to greet someone who is older than you.
0:38:24 > 0:38:28In my culture...I feel like it should be more of a formal thing
0:38:28 > 0:38:32rather than informal as well. Every time you see someone, you are meant
0:38:32 > 0:38:37to greet them that we.You would reserve it for state occasions,
0:38:37 > 0:38:42weddings, things like that.If you came to a traditional wedding, if I
0:38:42 > 0:38:46was marrying a you read the man, I would kneel down for his parents as
0:38:46 > 0:38:50required. -- eight you read the man. We have changed lots of things in
0:38:50 > 0:38:56the world...That's the thing, you can really compare other things the
0:38:56 > 0:39:01kneeling down, that is problematic. Tribal marking is automatic, and we
0:39:01 > 0:39:05acknowledge that. Showing respect by kneeling down to someone is showing
0:39:05 > 0:39:09that you come from a good background, when you are doing it,
0:39:09 > 0:39:13we are thinking, your parents have raised you write. It is a reflection
0:39:13 > 0:39:21of your upbringing. That is how Yoruba people see it.If you don't
0:39:21 > 0:39:24do it, do people think you are being disrespectful?I have never come
0:39:24 > 0:39:29across that. I don't believe in kneeling down, I honestly don't, my
0:39:29 > 0:39:32mum doesn't require it of my friends and people she meets, therefore I
0:39:32 > 0:39:36don't feel that I should have two. Thanks for giving us an insight into
0:39:36 > 0:39:37the debate about it.
0:39:37 > 0:39:38That's it for tonight.
0:39:38 > 0:39:41We end with proof that Germans are not after all a nation
0:39:41 > 0:39:42of humourless engineers.
0:39:42 > 0:39:45They are, it seems, a nation of very silly engineers.
0:39:45 > 0:39:47So we leave with the alleged creation of Johannes
0:39:47 > 0:39:48and Phillip Mickenbecker - the bathcopter.
0:39:48 > 0:39:51Goodnight.
0:39:51 > 0:39:58WHIRRING SOUND.
0:40:00 > 0:40:03MUSIC: Mars Theme by Nick Cave.
0:40:03 > 0:40:06# We're coming in too fast and.
0:40:06 > 0:40:09# Everyone is burning bright
0:40:16 > 0:40:18# 182 seconds, baby
0:40:18 > 0:40:21# And heaven is a trick of the light
0:40:30 > 0:40:33# We're coming in too fast, and
0:40:33 > 0:40:36# Heaven is a trance unknown #.