0:00:08 > 0:00:11Just when they thought the world economy was safe...
0:00:11 > 0:00:15Stock markets have tumbled and bond markets too.
0:00:15 > 0:00:19Is it time to hide under the blanket again?
0:00:19 > 0:00:22We are told rising interest rates are causing the commotion, but rates
0:00:22 > 0:00:24are still at incredibly low levels.
0:00:24 > 0:00:26Imagine how difficult things will be when they go
0:00:26 > 0:00:30back to the old normal.
0:00:30 > 0:00:32We'll discuss with a pair of doctor
0:00:32 > 0:00:36doom economists who both say they predicted the last crash.
0:00:36 > 0:00:39You'll have heard much this week about women getting the vote
0:00:39 > 0:00:40a hundred years ago.
0:00:40 > 0:00:43Not so much about the working class men getting the vote
0:00:43 > 0:00:44at the same time.
0:00:44 > 0:00:46We'll ask if the fight for class
0:00:46 > 0:00:52justice has been eclipsed by other cultural battles.
0:00:52 > 0:00:55And meet the member of the Germany's far right AfD party...
0:00:55 > 0:00:57who's converted to Islam.
0:00:57 > 0:00:59Yes, I was born three months ago.
0:00:59 > 0:01:02I am Ahmed.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04This is your new name?
0:01:04 > 0:01:05Correct.
0:01:05 > 0:01:06Ahmed.
0:01:06 > 0:01:07Ahmed Wagner.
0:01:07 > 0:01:15Ahmed Wagner.
0:01:17 > 0:01:19Hello.
0:01:19 > 0:01:20The FTSE was down 2.5% today,
0:01:20 > 0:01:23that's hardly a crash and certainly nothing to compare
0:01:23 > 0:01:26to recent fluctuations in the price of bitcoin.
0:01:26 > 0:01:29But it still wipes 50 billion off its value.
0:01:29 > 0:01:33And it came as turmoil in the US sent markets see-sawing too -
0:01:33 > 0:01:36finally closing an hour and a half ago around 2% up
0:01:36 > 0:01:40on yesterday's record fall.
0:01:40 > 0:01:43Although the day ended more positively than it began there's no
0:01:43 > 0:01:47doubt that this has been a wobbly few days.
0:01:47 > 0:01:49So, how worried should you be?
0:01:49 > 0:01:52The basic explanation of the volatility is interest rates -
0:01:52 > 0:01:54rates potentially going up faster than expected makes profits
0:01:54 > 0:01:58harder to earn, and shares relatively less attractive.
0:01:58 > 0:02:01And the good news spin is that higher rates
0:02:01 > 0:02:03are the result of growth, so these are problems of success.
0:02:03 > 0:02:04Which is all reassuring.
0:02:04 > 0:02:06But there's a bigger way of looking at this:
0:02:06 > 0:02:10that this is a turning point.
0:02:10 > 0:02:14We had a crash ten years ago; we still haven't got back to normal
0:02:14 > 0:02:16and this kind of disruption is just a starter as to what
0:02:16 > 0:02:22to expect as we do.
0:02:23 > 0:02:29The banking crisis of ten years ago has spread across the West and was
0:02:29 > 0:02:35like in a comic heart attack -- and was like an economic heart attack,
0:02:35 > 0:02:37leaving banks slow to lend so companies couldn't get credit to pay
0:02:37 > 0:02:41for new investment and too many households were stranded with big
0:02:41 > 0:02:45debts and couldn't afford to spend. Across the West, grows inevitably
0:02:45 > 0:02:53slowed.For the time being at least, the nice decade is behind us. The
0:02:53 > 0:02:58credit cycle has turned.Central banks had to step up to stop the
0:02:58 > 0:03:04economy is falling down even further, printing money and slashing
0:03:04 > 0:03:08interest rates to nearly zero. In normal times with everything under
0:03:08 > 0:03:14control and inflation low, you might expect the main interest rates to be
0:03:14 > 0:03:18about 5%. That is the UK historic average but for the best part of a
0:03:18 > 0:03:25decade the West has got used to rates at or below 1%. Time after
0:03:25 > 0:03:29time people prematurely predicted that growth would return and rates
0:03:29 > 0:03:37would rise.It would not seem unreasonable to me to expect that
0:03:37 > 0:03:43once monetary policy normalisation begins, interest rates would proceed
0:03:43 > 0:03:47slowly and rise to a level in the medium term that's perhaps about
0:03:47 > 0:03:55half as high as historic averages. In fact the year's recovery was
0:03:55 > 0:04:00slow, economies were lacklustre and rates stayed low. Now, solid growth
0:04:00 > 0:04:04looks to have returned by the looming question is how we get back
0:04:04 > 0:04:08to normal. Everybody has got used to easy money.
0:04:08 > 0:04:12to normal. Everybody has got used to easy money. The US Federal bank has
0:04:12 > 0:04:16started normalising rates but they are still only 1.5%. The expected
0:04:16 > 0:04:21path is for three quarter point rise is for a year but this isn't an
0:04:21 > 0:04:21path is for three quarter point rise is for a year but this isn't an
0:04:21 > 0:04:29exact science. And for investors who famously vulnerable to overreacting
0:04:29 > 0:04:34to everything, small changes to the expected trajectory of rates can
0:04:34 > 0:04:39make a big difference to the value of bonds or shares. The path into
0:04:39 > 0:04:42the era of low rates was unprecedented and the path out of it
0:04:42 > 0:04:48is also uncharted. Who knows how painful it may turn out to be?
0:04:48 > 0:04:52So what should we expect next - and what does all of this mean
0:04:52 > 0:04:54for finance ministers, investors and for the
0:04:54 > 0:04:58likes of me and you?
0:04:58 > 0:05:01Gillian Tett is the managing editor of the Financial Times
0:05:01 > 0:05:02and joins us from New York.
0:05:02 > 0:05:07Ann Pettifor is an economist who for a while was an advisor
0:05:07 > 0:05:09on financial matters to Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party.
0:05:09 > 0:05:19Good evening to you both. How worried should we be, Gillian?Well,
0:05:19 > 0:05:22in the short term, moderately uneasy, not too panic stricken but
0:05:22 > 0:05:27in the long term we should be concerned because there is a big
0:05:27 > 0:05:30dislocation in the global economy and we need to address them.Expand
0:05:30 > 0:05:36on that, what are we talking about? Very simply, there is too much debt,
0:05:36 > 0:05:41there is 40% more debt per GDP in the global system than there was a
0:05:41 > 0:05:45decade ago just before the crash and the only reason we haven't noticed
0:05:45 > 0:05:50it is because interest rates are very low. The question is what will
0:05:50 > 0:05:57happen when interest rates go up. Indeed so. Ann, how worried should
0:05:57 > 0:06:02we be?We should be very worried because we have a new crowd at the
0:06:02 > 0:06:06Fed who want to raise rates and tighten monetary policy which
0:06:06 > 0:06:08represents a big shift from what we've been through over the last ten
0:06:08 > 0:06:14years.You agree that this is a transition, a turning point?It's a
0:06:14 > 0:06:18turning point and I'm not sure they'll get it right.It's very hard
0:06:18 > 0:06:24to get it right but Ann you accept that they can't sit around, in the
0:06:24 > 0:06:32UK it is half a percent and the US, 1.5%, should they sit around?No,
0:06:32 > 0:06:38our point is that the economic model out of the crisis is deeply flawed,
0:06:38 > 0:06:41it is about injecting trillions of dollars into the financial system
0:06:41 > 0:06:48come into markets and property, bond markets, and at the same time
0:06:48 > 0:06:53imposing austerity. The model has not led to recovery and in fact I
0:06:53 > 0:06:56would disagree, we aren't really seeing growth, we are seeing a
0:06:56 > 0:06:59little uptick in wages here and there but actually we aren't even
0:06:59 > 0:07:04seeing real inflation in the US. My worry is that we are shifting into
0:07:04 > 0:07:10the mode of tightening monetary policy while there is massive fiscal
0:07:10 > 0:07:12expansion by the club administration.So this is another
0:07:12 > 0:07:16false alarm where people are seeing rates going up but not the real
0:07:16 > 0:07:22recovery we need?There isn't a real recovery so we have to be careful.
0:07:22 > 0:07:27Wary about raising. On that point, Gillian, do you believe the global
0:07:27 > 0:07:32economy has turned around to mark most of the world is enjoying what
0:07:32 > 0:07:38would be regarded as OK growth.I'd be a bit more optimistic than Ann in
0:07:38 > 0:07:42terms of their being growth going on but the problem, the image use is
0:07:42 > 0:07:49that you have a financial system before 2007 that was addicted to
0:07:49 > 0:07:53cheap private-sector debt, heroin if you like, we were weaned off that by
0:07:53 > 0:07:56becoming addicted to morphine, government help and what we are
0:07:56 > 0:08:00seeing is an explosion in government borrowing around the world which
0:08:00 > 0:08:05will eventually create problems. What has rocked the markets over the
0:08:05 > 0:08:10last few days in America has been a very funky project linked to
0:08:10 > 0:08:16something that is complicated, I went to describe it -- I won't
0:08:16 > 0:08:20describe it, it is like the sub-prime mortgages of a decade ago
0:08:20 > 0:08:23but it is the symptom of the problems in the system as people
0:08:23 > 0:08:26have responded to free money from the central banks by doing some
0:08:26 > 0:08:31weird things to try and get yields and returns and that eventually
0:08:31 > 0:08:36comes back to bite everybody.Are you saying that you can't raise the
0:08:36 > 0:08:40rates now because in many respects this is a problem of the methadone,
0:08:40 > 0:08:46whatever the drug substitute is? It is the withdrawal from that that is
0:08:46 > 0:08:51the problem but you do want to get people off it, right?I couldn't
0:08:51 > 0:08:54agree more, I am in the cab of people who say that we should have
0:08:54 > 0:09:00started the withdrawal process a bit earlier and there is going to be
0:09:00 > 0:09:03inevitable lurches like this as the system goes through withdrawal.
0:09:03 > 0:09:08That's part of the process. I'd argue that the Fed and other central
0:09:08 > 0:09:13banks must press ahead with what has been a pretty rocky ride so far.If
0:09:13 > 0:09:17we've seen any growth, as Gillian has suggested, it is because last
0:09:17 > 0:09:23year the central banks pumped in $3 trillion. When the economy is meant
0:09:23 > 0:09:30to be recovering they had to pump in $3 trillion of liquidity to keep it
0:09:30 > 0:09:34alive.The growth of debt and pumping it up but you can't have
0:09:34 > 0:09:38growth without that and you can't do it for ever.Exactly come at the
0:09:38 > 0:09:43point is that there is something wrong with the actual model is the
0:09:43 > 0:09:47problem and the colour mists haven't come up with a solution to the
0:09:47 > 0:09:51crisis that was caused in 2007 and what's going to happen -- and the
0:09:51 > 0:09:56economists. We have a president who is going to spend money on tax cuts
0:09:56 > 0:10:01and so on and putting people onto the board of the Fed who are going
0:10:01 > 0:10:05to tighten monetary policy and we know aren't going to work. We don't
0:10:05 > 0:10:09have an answer to the thing that will satisfy the people who voted
0:10:09 > 0:10:13for Donald Trump, they voted for him because their living standards
0:10:13 > 0:10:21aren't...How do you think of the politics of this is going to play
0:10:21 > 0:10:27out? Donald Trump tied himself to the rises in the stock markets, does
0:10:27 > 0:10:31he have to eat humble pie?Does he ever eat humble pie? He's not going
0:10:31 > 0:10:37to say get is what, I was wrong. He was pretty nutty to tie himself to
0:10:37 > 0:10:41the fate of the stock market in terms of using it as a scorecard for
0:10:41 > 0:10:45success but what he's going to do, he'll distract everyone with
0:10:45 > 0:10:50something else going forward and he probably won't talk about it again.
0:10:50 > 0:10:54People are talking about tax cuts and deregulation instead and there
0:10:54 > 0:11:02is quite a good feel-good sentiment in America.Thanks very much indeed.
0:11:02 > 0:11:04The Tories were ahead of Labour in an ICM opinion poll
0:11:04 > 0:11:06for the Guardian today.
0:11:06 > 0:11:07One point ahead.
0:11:07 > 0:11:10That might seem surprising given Conservative divisions -
0:11:10 > 0:11:13ably demonstrated last night on this programme when Anna Soubry urged
0:11:13 > 0:11:16Theresa May to sling Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg out
0:11:16 > 0:11:20of the party.
0:11:20 > 0:11:22Those Europe sparks will likely fly again tomorrow when Mrs May
0:11:22 > 0:11:25convenes her Brexit 'war cabinet' to hammer out her next moves.
0:11:25 > 0:11:32Our political editor Nick Watt is with me.
0:11:32 > 0:11:36Your interview with Anna Soubry yesterday kick-started a bunch of
0:11:36 > 0:11:39extra troubles for the Conservatives today.Quite a wee action on the
0:11:39 > 0:11:46Leave side -- a reaction. One person said, Anna Soubry is doing a great
0:11:46 > 0:11:52job for Brexit and on the pro-European side there is strong
0:11:52 > 0:11:55sympathy for Anna Soubry but not total agreement. On this point about
0:11:55 > 0:12:02whether she could remain in the party run by Jacob Rees-Mogg, she
0:12:02 > 0:12:05said no. Justine Greening, former Education Secretary, expressing some
0:12:05 > 0:12:10sympathy for that view. I understand a handful of Conservatives would
0:12:10 > 0:12:15leave the party of Jacob Rees-Mogg became the leader. An Anna Soubry's
0:12:15 > 0:12:21point about slinging the likes of Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg
0:12:21 > 0:12:24out of the party, no agreement among the remains of porters on that but
0:12:24 > 0:12:30there is sympathy for her view that the main Eurosceptic group is overly
0:12:30 > 0:12:37influential to which the ERG say thank you, you are over influential
0:12:37 > 0:12:45because your mindset is running the Treasury. -- remain
0:12:45 > 0:12:48Treasury. -- remain supporters. I have heard from Anna Soubry who said
0:12:48 > 0:12:56she has at hundreds of e-mails from supporters and she has had some very
0:12:56 > 0:13:01private agreement from Conservative colleagues. But then she said, of
0:13:01 > 0:13:04course I have received a number of critical e-mails and some unpleasant
0:13:04 > 0:13:10phone calls including one death threats to me and my constituency
0:13:10 > 0:13:15manager, who takes the calls. Now, Anna Soubry has reported this call
0:13:15 > 0:13:20to the police.And on the day that the Prime Minister was talking about
0:13:20 > 0:13:29a more decent civic discourse. Where does it go from here? Tomorrow there
0:13:29 > 0:13:33is this big meeting when they are going to hammer it out, the
0:13:33 > 0:13:37compromise, whatever it is.The Cabinet Brexit subcommittee meeting
0:13:37 > 0:13:43tomorrow and Thursday. Tomorrow they discussed Northern Ireland and then
0:13:43 > 0:13:47it is the economic relationship with the EU and trade the following day.
0:13:47 > 0:13:52These talks are going at two levels to the EU summit in Brussels in
0:13:52 > 0:13:57March. Level number one, the political agreement on the
0:13:57 > 0:14:00intimidation phase in December, which must be put into a legally
0:14:00 > 0:14:05binding text. The second thing, the UK Cabinet must agree what it wants
0:14:05 > 0:14:10for the future economic relationship. So, by the end of
0:14:10 > 0:14:16February, beginning of March, there is a month to try and influence the
0:14:16 > 0:14:18guidelines of the commission negotiations.Look forward to that,
0:14:18 > 0:14:20thank you.
0:14:20 > 0:14:22Transport Secretary Chris Grayling was accused today of misleading
0:14:22 > 0:14:24parliament in his statement to the Commons yesterday,
0:14:24 > 0:14:26about the problems of the East Coast Mainline.
0:14:26 > 0:14:30Lord Adonis, former transport secretary, was the accuser,
0:14:30 > 0:14:35and he has been tormenting Mr Grayling for weeks over his
0:14:35 > 0:14:38handling of the problems of the East coast Virgin-Stagecoach franchise.
0:14:38 > 0:14:41The franchise is on the brink of collapse, but Mr Grayling
0:14:41 > 0:14:44is allowing Virgin Stagecoach to carry on winning train contracts;
0:14:44 > 0:14:47Lord Adonis thinks the companies have been bailed out and need
0:14:47 > 0:14:50to face a penalty, and in effect, be restricted in bidding
0:14:50 > 0:14:51for future franchises.
0:14:51 > 0:14:53It's quite a challenge to the case for privatised rail.
0:14:53 > 0:15:01Here's our business editor Helen Thomas.
0:15:19 > 0:15:23The three railway line that link London to the North were built over
0:15:23 > 0:15:24100 years ago by private companies.
0:15:24 > 0:15:27London ended up with three separate stations nearly next to each other.
0:15:27 > 0:15:30What role if any that Stagecoach should be playing in the running
0:15:30 > 0:15:32of those same three line today is the latest battlefront
0:15:32 > 0:15:35in an acrimonious debate about the future of our rail.
0:15:35 > 0:15:37Slowing passenger growth has put the squeeze on Britain's rail
0:15:37 > 0:15:39operators and senior industry figures privately concede
0:15:39 > 0:15:41that the franchising model just is not working very well.
0:15:41 > 0:15:43Big complicated rigid contracts are not good for operators,
0:15:43 > 0:15:45who cannot control many of the factors that
0:15:45 > 0:15:46determine revenue growth.
0:15:46 > 0:15:49And the latest fiasco over the East Coast franchise suggest
0:15:49 > 0:15:51that those contracts might not be working brilliantly
0:15:51 > 0:15:52for government either.
0:15:52 > 0:15:54It has now been confirmed that the situation is much more urgent.
0:15:54 > 0:15:58It is now clear that this franchise will only be able to continue
0:15:58 > 0:16:00in its current form for a matter of months and no more.
0:16:00 > 0:16:03I need to put in place, in the very near future,
0:16:03 > 0:16:05a successor arrangement to operate this railway and to end
0:16:05 > 0:16:07the current contract.
0:16:07 > 0:16:08But Stagecoach's business could stay on track,
0:16:08 > 0:16:10with partners, Virgin, the company could still continue
0:16:10 > 0:16:12running the East Coast on a not-for-profit basis.
0:16:12 > 0:16:15Next door, Stagecoach has short listed for the East Midlands
0:16:15 > 0:16:19franchise and on the West Coast, where Virgin is a majority partner,
0:16:19 > 0:16:22the companies had just been given a new franchise
0:16:22 > 0:16:25until potentially 2020.
0:16:25 > 0:16:28Stagecoach is short listed for other franchises as well.
0:16:28 > 0:16:30The Transport Secretary said that he cannot
0:16:30 > 0:16:32borrow them from bidding.
0:16:32 > 0:16:40Not so, say some.
0:16:42 > 0:16:46If the company is deemed to be unsatisfactory and doubtful in terms
0:16:46 > 0:16:50of economics, it can be stopped from bidding.
0:16:50 > 0:16:52Stagecoach were committed
0:16:52 > 0:16:53with Virgin to deliver services until 2023.
0:16:53 > 0:16:55They were made to do so.
0:16:55 > 0:16:58And if they walk away from it, it should be banned from future
0:16:58 > 0:17:00franchises and if the Department for Transport then runs
0:17:00 > 0:17:03the service at a loss directly, Stagecoach and Virgin should be
0:17:03 > 0:17:04built for the cost of that.
0:17:04 > 0:17:07The problems with the East Coast will cost Stagecoach 106
0:17:07 > 0:17:11£5 million under its contract.
0:17:11 > 0:17:13Rail operators argue that they have no incentive to gain
0:17:13 > 0:17:19the system and over a bed.
0:17:19 > 0:17:20the system and over bid.
0:17:20 > 0:17:22They are on the hook for potentially hundreds of millions
0:17:22 > 0:17:24of pounds to the government.
0:17:24 > 0:17:28There is another reason the government might want to keep
0:17:28 > 0:17:30Stagecoach on board.
0:17:30 > 0:17:31They need them.
0:17:31 > 0:17:33As franchises have got bigger, there are fewer big experienced
0:17:33 > 0:17:37players to bid for them and the rule of thumb is, you need at least three
0:17:37 > 0:17:38bidders to ensure value for money.
0:17:38 > 0:17:41Knocking someone like Stagecoach out of the proceedings could reduce some
0:17:41 > 0:17:49short lists to only two.
0:17:50 > 0:17:55There are clearly not enough companies. What we have had since
0:17:55 > 0:17:592012 we have had as many contracts that have been directly water, than
0:17:59 > 0:18:05those that have come about as a result of a franchise competition.
0:18:05 > 0:18:10The whole system is flawed and it simply needs to be replaced.Labour
0:18:10 > 0:18:15would get rid of the Private firms altogether but other critics of
0:18:15 > 0:18:19franchising argued that the system is already largely government
0:18:19 > 0:18:23control. What has not worked is forcing risk onto the private sector
0:18:23 > 0:18:28and they are better kept as low margin managers. In terms of rail
0:18:28 > 0:18:34travel, the results of the model are more mixed.This is showing real
0:18:34 > 0:18:38problems. It has not yet worked. Delivered some things, a lot of
0:18:38 > 0:18:43investment and it has delivered much more passenger journeys in the
0:18:43 > 0:18:49jargon that many more people are taking train journeys. It has also
0:18:49 > 0:18:53delivered very high prices compare too much of Europe and it has not
0:18:53 > 0:18:57really deliver the improvement and efficiency that were part of the
0:18:57 > 0:19:02rationale for the whole thing. Slower passenger growth means other
0:19:02 > 0:19:06operators are struggling. The threat to the model is not just a worry
0:19:06 > 0:19:10that companies are somehow being let off the hook, it is also private
0:19:10 > 0:19:19operators going cold on bidding for these large and risky contracts.
0:19:19 > 0:19:20Helen Thomas there.
0:19:20 > 0:19:22We asked the Department for Transport to join us
0:19:22 > 0:19:23but nobody was available.
0:19:23 > 0:19:26In a statement the Stagecoach group said the company had neither walked
0:19:26 > 0:19:29away from the East Coast franchise nor asked for any special treatment.
0:19:29 > 0:19:32It added that the firm had operated trains for the government for 21
0:19:32 > 0:19:34years, raising billions of pounds for the taxpayer - and
0:19:34 > 0:19:37that the government is clear there is no basis to preclude them
0:19:37 > 0:19:41from bidding for future franchises.
0:19:41 > 0:19:42The nation has been celebrating the hundredth anniversary
0:19:42 > 0:19:45of the 1918 Representation of the People's Act today -
0:19:45 > 0:19:47and with it, women getting the vote for the first time.
0:19:47 > 0:19:49But actually, that's not quite the case -
0:19:49 > 0:19:52a few women did have the vote in local elections
0:19:52 > 0:19:56decades before that.
0:19:56 > 0:19:59And a very few had been voting even before 1832 as well.
0:19:59 > 0:20:03Those were some property-owning women.
0:20:03 > 0:20:05But for many more women to vote in national elections
0:20:05 > 0:20:08is obviously a big thing, which is why today is marked
0:20:08 > 0:20:10as the real birthday of women's suffrage -
0:20:10 > 0:20:13and if you were watching yesterday, we devoted half our programme
0:20:13 > 0:20:14to that milestone.
0:20:14 > 0:20:16However, it has not escaped the notice of some that February
0:20:16 > 0:20:19the sixth 1918 also marked the day that many working class men,
0:20:19 > 0:20:24the non-householders, got the vote too.
0:20:24 > 0:20:27A fact far less prominent in today's festivities.
0:20:27 > 0:20:32For some, this is a metaphor for identity politics -
0:20:32 > 0:20:34we are so preoccupied by the traditionally defined
0:20:34 > 0:20:35underprivileged groups - based on colour, gender,
0:20:35 > 0:20:38or sexuality - we forget just how many white straight
0:20:38 > 0:20:41men have been, or are - or at least feel -
0:20:41 > 0:20:42underprivileged as well.
0:20:42 > 0:20:43Has class got lost?
0:20:43 > 0:20:51We'll discuss in a minute, but first here's John Sweeney.
0:20:51 > 0:20:53100 years ago today, women under 30 who owned
0:20:53 > 0:21:00property got the vote.
0:21:00 > 0:21:02100 years ago today, women over 30 who owned
0:21:02 > 0:21:03property got the vote.
0:21:03 > 0:21:04And working-class men too.
0:21:04 > 0:21:05Since then, some working-class men might be
0:21:05 > 0:21:08forgiven for thinking things have got better for women than for them.
0:21:08 > 0:21:10Take politics.
0:21:10 > 0:21:11To begin with, working-class men got a Prime
0:21:11 > 0:21:13Minister first.
0:21:13 > 0:21:15Ramsay MacDonald in 1924.
0:21:15 > 0:21:19James Callaghan and John Major followed suit.
0:21:19 > 0:21:21Women have Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May.
0:21:21 > 0:21:27There is little prospect of a working-class
0:21:27 > 0:21:30hero in Number Ten now that Jeremy Corbyn nor Vince Cable are
0:21:30 > 0:21:31horny-handed sons of toil.
0:21:31 > 0:21:33Still less Jacob Rees-Mogg.
0:21:33 > 0:21:36Back in 1918, most people were working-class.
0:21:36 > 0:21:40Free State education helps catapult millions out of poverty and
0:21:40 > 0:21:42ignorance.
0:21:42 > 0:21:45Today, only four in ten are working class but what is
0:21:45 > 0:21:49striking is how the privately educated rich, less than one in ten
0:21:49 > 0:21:55of the population, still do so much better than the working class.
0:21:55 > 0:21:58As the liberal elite's growing focus on
0:21:58 > 0:22:00race, gender and sexuality left working-class people overlooked in
0:22:00 > 0:22:06favour of identity politics?
0:22:06 > 0:22:08And did this neglect help propel Brexit and
0:22:08 > 0:22:16Donald Trump?
0:22:17 > 0:22:19Interesting question.
0:22:19 > 0:22:21Claire Fox is the director of the Academy of Ideas.
0:22:21 > 0:22:24Faiza Shaheen is from the Centre for Labour and Social Studies.
0:22:24 > 0:22:26They both say they are from the working classes.
0:22:26 > 0:22:30I'll come to them in a moment - but I want to start with a US
0:22:30 > 0:22:32perspective, because in New York is the political scientist
0:22:32 > 0:22:35and author Mark Lilla, who wrote a much discussed piece
0:22:35 > 0:22:37after the Trump election victory, arguing that Hillary Clinton
0:22:37 > 0:22:40and American liberals had put too great a focus on identity politics
0:22:40 > 0:22:43around gender, race or sexuality. Due to the success of that article
0:22:43 > 0:22:45he has expanded his argument into a new book "The Once
0:22:45 > 0:22:47and Future Liberal: After Identity Politics"
0:22:47 > 0:22:55which is out in the UK in May.
0:22:58 > 0:23:03Good evening. Do you want to explain why you think that the identity
0:23:03 > 0:23:10politics thread of liberal politics has gone too far?I think the shift
0:23:10 > 0:23:15has really been from a politics of interest and there can be interest
0:23:15 > 0:23:24of particular groups, the vote is one such interests, economic games,
0:23:24 > 0:23:30the end of Jim Crow in the American South. A politics of interest has
0:23:30 > 0:23:37been substituted in this country by a politics of recognition. And the
0:23:37 > 0:23:43politics of recognition is about being recognised as a member of the
0:23:43 > 0:23:49group, not only the group being recognised, but the individuals,
0:23:49 > 0:23:55particular individuals feel recognised and as we see in this
0:23:55 > 0:24:04country, affirmed in their identities. The shift from interests
0:24:04 > 0:24:11to identity and to recognition has meant that it has been harder to
0:24:11 > 0:24:16build bridges among various groups who share common interests are who
0:24:16 > 0:24:22have overlapping interest, so when you have a politics of interest, the
0:24:22 > 0:24:28workings of the working class, women together, then you can build a
0:24:28 > 0:24:34Coalition, but when it is a politics of representing yourself and fiddly
0:24:34 > 0:24:40recognise, that tends to divide people.Let me pin you down. We have
0:24:40 > 0:24:43all seen videos of the American police shooting black people over
0:24:43 > 0:24:49the last couple of years. Black lives matter is a result of that, a
0:24:49 > 0:24:59classic piece of identity politics, what can you say against that?I
0:24:59 > 0:25:04would not call it identity politics in the way that I mean it or rather
0:25:04 > 0:25:07that there are elements there in their Black Lives Matter movement
0:25:07 > 0:25:12that are concerned mainly about recognition. If you are concerned
0:25:12 > 0:25:16about actually changing concrete conditions that have led to this
0:25:16 > 0:25:20terrible situation of what we call driving while in black and having
0:25:20 > 0:25:24problems with the police, then you have to think about how you govern.
0:25:24 > 0:25:28The only way to change that is by winning elections and governing over
0:25:28 > 0:25:35the long-term. A politics that focus on interests and shared interests
0:25:35 > 0:25:41and overlapping interest can achieve that. A politics of recognition
0:25:41 > 0:25:45tends to fall into symbolic gesture, so for example, Black Lives Matter
0:25:45 > 0:25:49did not only worked to change things on the streets of many of our
0:25:49 > 0:25:56cities, activist showed up at the rallies of Bernie Sanders and
0:25:56 > 0:26:01Hillary Clinton and tried to stop the proceedings in order to get
0:26:01 > 0:26:04recognition of their movement and their own conception of American
0:26:04 > 0:26:11history. Politics of recognition can divide people over what it means to
0:26:11 > 0:26:15be recognise, what the nature of history has been. Hillary Clinton
0:26:15 > 0:26:22and Bernie Sanders were the allies of these people.
0:26:23 > 0:26:27of these people.I want to take what you have said and put it to my other
0:26:27 > 0:26:33guests. Thank you for setting that out. Do you recognise any of that
0:26:33 > 0:26:38critique of the way identity politics can divide as applied to
0:26:38 > 0:26:44the UK, we have had here?Yes and no. I am suspicious of an argument
0:26:44 > 0:26:48that says that groups coming out that have legitimate grievances
0:26:48 > 0:26:53should not talk about them because otherwise it hurts them from winning
0:26:53 > 0:26:59elections and divides groups. What I would say is that different equality
0:26:59 > 0:27:03groups, we have not always been good at connecting to broader issues in
0:27:03 > 0:27:07the economy. We are not very good at recognising that this is also an
0:27:07 > 0:27:14economic issue.There is the fight for equality for the LGBT
0:27:14 > 0:27:17communities as well.There is an element of discrimination and
0:27:17 > 0:27:22prejudice that we have to address but also if you look that feminism
0:27:22 > 0:27:26and what has happened in terms of the economy we have seen that
0:27:26 > 0:27:31traditional women's work is lower paid. Why is it that social care is
0:27:31 > 0:27:35low-paid? We need to be doing much more to understand back connection
0:27:35 > 0:27:40with the system. The idea is not to equalise misery. The aim is not to
0:27:40 > 0:27:49say, my job is not done if I do not say that white men are not as
0:27:49 > 0:27:54affected by as dirty as brown women. Do you think the identity politics
0:27:54 > 0:27:58has
0:27:59 > 0:28:07has gone has gone far stop am affected by that.I think what it
0:28:07 > 0:28:12has led to is jockeying for position in recognition and actually a
0:28:12 > 0:28:15competition to play the victim and I am concerned that when we talk about
0:28:15 > 0:28:21class in this, what end up doing is saying what about white working
0:28:21 > 0:28:26class men, they are an identity as well. That has happened in America
0:28:26 > 0:28:30with Trump. It is the only place to go. I am a victim who is suffering
0:28:30 > 0:28:35and oppressed but I think that class is not to be ignored. I have been
0:28:35 > 0:28:42news today in relation to the vote that in fact the celebration was of
0:28:42 > 0:28:46women getting the vote and all hail the celebrations, it is a big thing,
0:28:46 > 0:28:50but I could not get over the fact that the millions of working class
0:28:50 > 0:28:55men who got the vote.
0:28:55 > 0:28:59men who got the vote. It was not hardly mentioned at all. I thought
0:28:59 > 0:29:03that that was an interesting thing and I think that we can see that
0:29:03 > 0:29:09jockeying for position that what has happened is, into sexuality and all
0:29:09 > 0:29:14of this, is that there is a real sense in which there is a snobbery
0:29:14 > 0:29:18for a lot of working-class things and Brexit has brought that to the
0:29:18 > 0:29:22fore.Was it a tactical mistake, if you go on about minorities and women
0:29:22 > 0:29:27too much, you create a backlash amongst a group who feels they have
0:29:27 > 0:29:34not been recognised and that is what he thinks has happened in the US.
0:29:34 > 0:29:38You have shouted out for every group and you have and shouted out for me.
0:29:38 > 0:29:42It is weird to argue to silence groups that have legitimate
0:29:42 > 0:29:47grievances. You cannot say to black men that they should be quiet. This
0:29:47 > 0:29:52is where the argument goes. There is a real thing about class identity,
0:29:52 > 0:29:59it annoys the vet every time we hear working classes, multiethnic, women,
0:29:59 > 0:30:03we should build solidarity but if we were arguing here that class is
0:30:03 > 0:30:07really important and we should go back to class identities we will be
0:30:07 > 0:30:13arguing for a trade union movement. I do not think that the point is
0:30:13 > 0:30:17whether your white working class, because of the emphasis on identity
0:30:17 > 0:30:23and the fact that people stress ethnicity, gender, LGBT, we have
0:30:23 > 0:30:28campus politics, and people jockeying for their identities and
0:30:28 > 0:30:32there are certain groups that get left out and the white working class
0:30:32 > 0:30:39have fared badly. It is not that I want them to become the white
0:30:39 > 0:30:42working class. What is wrong with politics is it has to be organised
0:30:42 > 0:30:49around ideas and not identities.We could continue this discussion but
0:30:49 > 0:30:56we have to stop there. Thank you very much.
0:30:56 > 0:30:58Talking of identity, the far right Alternative
0:30:58 > 0:30:59for Germany party, or AfD, took third
0:30:59 > 0:31:01place in the elections to the Bundestag last year.
0:31:01 > 0:31:04Their success came, in large part, thanks to their unequivocal
0:31:04 > 0:31:07messages about identity, immigration and Islam.
0:31:07 > 0:31:10Germany had been swamped, they said, by a tide of migrants
0:31:10 > 0:31:12during the refugee crisis of 2015; Germany was under threat,
0:31:12 > 0:31:18they believed, of "Islamization".
0:31:18 > 0:31:20Their success at the ballot box sent Germany's consensus-politics
0:31:20 > 0:31:23into confusion, and out of it, the traditional parties have
0:31:23 > 0:31:25still so far been unable to form a coalition.
0:31:25 > 0:31:28If and when they do, AfD could become the main party
0:31:28 > 0:31:30of opposition in the Bundestag.
0:31:30 > 0:31:34But now, a member of the AfD in the state of Brandenburg has sent
0:31:34 > 0:31:35shockwaves through his own party.
0:31:35 > 0:31:37He's announced that he's converted to Islam.
0:31:37 > 0:31:45Gabriel Gatehouse went to meet him.
0:31:45 > 0:31:51This is a journey into the world of identity politics.
0:31:51 > 0:31:54We're off to meet a man who's just taken a pretty big decision.
0:31:54 > 0:31:55I had a vision.
0:31:55 > 0:31:58A man who's crossed the line.
0:31:58 > 0:32:03I have understood I will be Muslim.
0:32:03 > 0:32:07It's six o'clock in the morning.
0:32:07 > 0:32:09He's already texting me saying, "I'm ready, waiting for you."
0:32:09 > 0:32:13Not really sure what to expect.
0:32:13 > 0:32:15Arthur.
0:32:15 > 0:32:19Wonderful, good morning, gentlemens.
0:32:19 > 0:32:20Hi, how are you?
0:32:20 > 0:32:22A pleasure to see the BBC.
0:32:22 > 0:32:23I'm fine, thank you.
0:32:23 > 0:32:24Very nice to meet you.
0:32:24 > 0:32:25Very interesting now.
0:32:25 > 0:32:26Indeed!
0:32:26 > 0:32:28You're going to tell us all about it.
0:32:28 > 0:32:33Arthur Wagner was born in the Soviet Union.
0:32:33 > 0:32:41An ethnic German, he moved to the country of his ancestors
0:32:41 > 0:32:43after the collapse of Communism and settled in this
0:32:43 > 0:32:44quiet Berlin suburb.
0:32:44 > 0:32:52You see, I do not eat schwein, pig fleisch nine months.
0:32:55 > 0:32:59We meet him the day after he's announced to the world
0:32:59 > 0:33:00he's converted to Islam.
0:33:00 > 0:33:03I do not know how they are happy with me, my children.
0:33:03 > 0:33:04My daughter is very, very conservative.
0:33:04 > 0:33:05Very conservative, yes.
0:33:05 > 0:33:07Your daughter's a conservative Christian?
0:33:07 > 0:33:08Very.
0:33:08 > 0:33:10So how is your conversion going down around the breakfast table?
0:33:10 > 0:33:13We speak to it sometimes but we have found a solution.
0:33:13 > 0:33:16It is difficult, yes.
0:33:16 > 0:33:21But if you have trust to God, you can speak.
0:33:21 > 0:33:24Around the time he joined the far right AfD party, Arthur commissioned
0:33:24 > 0:33:29a Wagner family crest.
0:33:29 > 0:33:36It says "the good country family."
0:33:36 > 0:33:38Values he says he still stands by.
0:33:38 > 0:33:40And this is important for all conservatives,
0:33:40 > 0:33:41Muslims or not Muslims.
0:33:41 > 0:33:44And now I go to my...
0:33:44 > 0:33:47Mr Wagner is on his way to work.
0:33:47 > 0:33:50He's a driver at a local children's centre and he's worried
0:33:50 > 0:33:56about how people will react to his religious conversion.
0:33:56 > 0:34:04How can I explain to my colleagues that I'm at the same?
0:34:05 > 0:34:08I'm a Muslim since three months.
0:34:08 > 0:34:11I'm a Muslim in my soul since two or three years and I have not
0:34:11 > 0:34:12changed the negative, I am the same.
0:34:12 > 0:34:15But they have changed, in one minute, in one minute,
0:34:15 > 0:34:2350 people do not like me.
0:34:26 > 0:34:32Bit of a character!
0:34:32 > 0:34:35His workmates are one cause of anxiety.
0:34:35 > 0:34:41His friends in the AfD are another.
0:34:41 > 0:34:44This is, after all, a party that campaigned against what it calls
0:34:44 > 0:34:45the "Islamisation of Germany."
0:34:45 > 0:34:50Arthur Wagner was actively involved in that campaign.
0:34:50 > 0:34:58I've been trying to call the local party for the last two days now
0:35:00 > 0:35:02and there's simply no answer.
0:35:02 > 0:35:04But they have put out a press statement online.
0:35:04 > 0:35:06They say the press should be made aware that a member
0:35:06 > 0:35:09of the AfD in Brandenburg has converted to Islam.
0:35:09 > 0:35:14And then it goes on to say, "We've taken note of this fact."
0:35:14 > 0:35:17"Not without surprise," I bet you can say that again.
0:35:17 > 0:35:21They say it's a private matter for Mr Wagner
0:35:21 > 0:35:24but they maintain that, as they put it, "Islam does
0:35:24 > 0:35:26not belong in Germany" and that the religion is a grave
0:35:26 > 0:35:28danger, as they see it, to the country.
0:35:28 > 0:35:31I caught up with Arthur Wagner on his lunch break.
0:35:31 > 0:35:32He told me about his spiritual journey.
0:35:32 > 0:35:35It seems like you're searching for something.
0:35:35 > 0:35:36First you said you had a midlife crisis.
0:35:36 > 0:35:38Yes.
0:35:38 > 0:35:39Then you found the AfD.
0:35:39 > 0:35:40Yes.
0:35:40 > 0:35:42And then I have found this.
0:35:42 > 0:35:43They helped me.
0:35:43 > 0:35:46And now you've found Islam.
0:35:46 > 0:35:50What are you searching for?
0:35:50 > 0:35:55Today changed the whole world and I need, I must find
0:35:55 > 0:35:59the solution, how can we work the European
0:35:59 > 0:36:01conservatives and Islam.
0:36:01 > 0:36:03This is my target.
0:36:03 > 0:36:09Lunch break over and Arthur has a meeting with his boss.
0:36:09 > 0:36:13He is convinced that he's about be fired.
0:36:13 > 0:36:16But this is Germany, people don't get fired for their religious
0:36:16 > 0:36:19or political beliefs.
0:36:19 > 0:36:23His boss tells him to take some time off.
0:36:23 > 0:36:26Tell us where we are going now.
0:36:26 > 0:36:31I'm now a really happy guy because I have a holiday, one week,
0:36:31 > 0:36:35and I can plan my life now, how I would like to do it.
0:36:35 > 0:36:37You've undergone a transformation.
0:36:37 > 0:36:42I'm another guy, yes.
0:36:42 > 0:36:44I was born three months ago, I am Ahmed.
0:36:44 > 0:36:45This is your new name?
0:36:45 > 0:36:46Correct.
0:36:46 > 0:36:47Ahmed.
0:36:47 > 0:36:52Ahmed Wagner.
0:36:52 > 0:36:55Suddenly the whole world wants to talk to Ahmed.
0:36:55 > 0:36:59There are endless requests for interviews with radio stations,
0:36:59 > 0:37:07newspapers, and a Russian language TV station in Berlin.
0:37:08 > 0:37:12In the evening, Ahmed is the guest of honour at a lecture on Chechnya,
0:37:12 > 0:37:14organised by a group that helps refugees integrate
0:37:14 > 0:37:19into German society.
0:37:19 > 0:37:21This is about the least likely place you'd think to find
0:37:21 > 0:37:26a member of the AfD.
0:37:26 > 0:37:29This may be a den of lefty liberals but Mr Wagner has been helping out
0:37:29 > 0:37:32here as a translator for a few years now.
0:37:32 > 0:37:35I'm a little bit shocked because...
0:37:35 > 0:37:39It's so weird.
0:37:39 > 0:37:42At the positive side, in a positive way.
0:37:42 > 0:37:48It's nice to hear that people can change their minds.
0:37:48 > 0:37:51Arthur has become Ahmed but he hasn't in fact
0:37:51 > 0:37:55changed his political worldview, especially on the subject
0:37:55 > 0:37:56of the refugee crisis, one of the most important topics
0:37:56 > 0:38:01for the AfD.
0:38:01 > 0:38:04I have understood what kind of problem we have since September,
0:38:04 > 0:38:112015, in our land and I'm very clear I'm right.
0:38:11 > 0:38:14I'm right national and I would like to lose this problem.
0:38:14 > 0:38:20I must understand, this is very important, I must understand.
0:38:20 > 0:38:24I returned the following day to Mr Wagner's Berlin suburb.
0:38:24 > 0:38:27After the whirlwind following his announcement, I wanted to know
0:38:27 > 0:38:30what was really driving him.
0:38:30 > 0:38:36I would like to show you my old flag.
0:38:36 > 0:38:39But in the attic, Wagner showed me the souvenirs and knick-knacks he'd
0:38:39 > 0:38:44collected over a lifetime in search of belonging.
0:38:44 > 0:38:45This is about the Wehrmacht.
0:38:45 > 0:38:46Right.
0:38:46 > 0:38:47The German military.
0:38:47 > 0:38:49And this is the Russian military.
0:38:49 > 0:38:50This thing.
0:38:50 > 0:38:51This is a fake.
0:38:51 > 0:38:53Fake ID of Russian special forces.
0:38:53 > 0:38:54Yes.
0:38:54 > 0:38:55This is you?
0:38:55 > 0:39:03This, I am.
0:39:07 > 0:39:10At some point Wagner had acquired a bit of memorabilia with national
0:39:10 > 0:39:11socialist overtones, something he was keen not
0:39:11 > 0:39:12to show the cameras.
0:39:12 > 0:39:15What about the knife that you didn't want to show me?
0:39:15 > 0:39:16Err...
0:39:16 > 0:39:17Cannot, I can't do it.
0:39:17 > 0:39:18Why not?
0:39:18 > 0:39:20It's not allowed, it not allowed.
0:39:20 > 0:39:21Why not?
0:39:21 > 0:39:22It's not allowed, it's German.
0:39:22 > 0:39:23It's not allowed.
0:39:23 > 0:39:24Right.
0:39:24 > 0:39:25OK.
0:39:25 > 0:39:28It's almost as if his conversion to Islam is an attempt to escape
0:39:28 > 0:39:33a decades-long identity crisis, rooted in his Russian past.
0:39:33 > 0:39:37The German guy didn't know, am I Russian or am I German?
0:39:37 > 0:39:41And Russian guy didn't know, am I am Russian or am I German?
0:39:41 > 0:39:44And because of this, I never will be success,
0:39:44 > 0:39:52I never had the chance to be success.
0:39:52 > 0:39:54If there is a common thread that runs through Wagner's improbable
0:39:54 > 0:39:56journey then it is this.
0:39:56 > 0:39:59A love of authority and fears about the erosion of conservative
0:39:59 > 0:40:04values in a changing society.
0:40:04 > 0:40:11This is changing in our society comes not from Islam.
0:40:11 > 0:40:15It comes from the left people, which, they do not trust in God.
0:40:15 > 0:40:17They would like to turn around.
0:40:17 > 0:40:18This is like a ideology.
0:40:18 > 0:40:20I hate it.
0:40:20 > 0:40:24So, do you see Islam as an ally in your conservative
0:40:24 > 0:40:29political worldview, against the liberal left?
0:40:29 > 0:40:33Against liberal, 100%, yes.
0:40:33 > 0:40:36Have you spoken to your AfD colleagues about this?
0:40:36 > 0:40:37What do they think?
0:40:37 > 0:40:42They think that I'm crazy.
0:40:42 > 0:40:47I will speak, in one ear, maybe.
0:40:47 > 0:40:51Arthur Ahmed Wagner wants to remain a member of the AfD.
0:40:51 > 0:40:54He may have some trouble persuading his party
0:40:54 > 0:40:57that there is no contradiction between his politics
0:40:57 > 0:41:03and his new religion.
0:41:03 > 0:41:08Gabriel Gatehouse on a man in search for his identity.
0:41:08 > 0:41:10That's all we have time for.
0:41:10 > 0:41:11I'm back tomorrow.
0:41:11 > 0:41:13Till then, goodnight.