0:00:05 > 0:00:09They've been working hard at the UN Security Council today,
0:00:09 > 0:00:12but getting nothing done.
0:00:12 > 0:00:15Meanwhile, with no ceasefire agreed,
0:00:15 > 0:00:18the Syrian government has been busy in its familiar way -
0:00:18 > 0:00:21bombing Eastern Ghouta.
0:00:21 > 0:00:24You might have hoped that somehow diplomacy or human decency
0:00:24 > 0:00:26would lead to a pause in the brutality.
0:00:26 > 0:00:29But hope is all too scarce.
0:00:29 > 0:00:32I'm witnessing these things before my eyes.
0:00:32 > 0:00:36When the bomb landed near us, the children panicked
0:00:36 > 0:00:40and were crying out loud.
0:00:40 > 0:00:44It's part of the United Kingdom, except it opts out
0:00:44 > 0:00:46of the socially liberal bits.
0:00:46 > 0:00:54What explains Northern Ireland's social conservatism?
0:00:56 > 0:00:59We know the society that we want to be part of.
0:00:59 > 0:01:01We know there is overwhelming public support for some of
0:01:01 > 0:01:04these issues, so it's really disappointing that some of our
0:01:04 > 0:01:05leaders cannot enact that change.
0:01:05 > 0:01:07And fewer people are using public transport in the capital.
0:01:07 > 0:01:15A blip, or an early sign we've finally reached peak London?
0:01:17 > 0:01:18Hello.
0:01:18 > 0:01:21It's been one of those days that demonstrates
0:01:21 > 0:01:23the limits of diplomacy.
0:01:23 > 0:01:26The Security Council was meant to vote on a motion
0:01:26 > 0:01:28for a ceasefire at 4 o'clock this afternoon, our time.
0:01:28 > 0:01:31Then it was postponed to 7.30.
0:01:31 > 0:01:35And in the last few minutes the vote has been rescheduled again -
0:01:35 > 0:01:38this time delayed until tomorrow.
0:01:38 > 0:01:42You probably don't need me to tell you that it is the Russian veto -
0:01:42 > 0:01:44or the threat of it - that has blocked the motion.
0:01:44 > 0:01:47However, the Russians have said they'll sign up to a ceasefire
0:01:47 > 0:01:51as long as it is guaranteed to be observed by rebels as well as
0:01:51 > 0:01:52the Syrian government.
0:01:52 > 0:01:56Talks will no doubt continue overnight before the vote -
0:01:56 > 0:02:01which we're now told will happen at 5pm our time tomorrow.
0:02:01 > 0:02:04Well, we'll hear from an air-raid shelter in Douma in Eastern Ghouta
0:02:04 > 0:02:07shortly, but what hope is there for a ceasefire?
0:02:07 > 0:02:09And an effective one at that.
0:02:09 > 0:02:15Mike Thompson reports.
0:02:15 > 0:02:19While politicians talk, the incessant bombardment of rebel held
0:02:19 > 0:02:27Eastern Ghouta by Syrian and Russian forces goes on and on.
0:02:27 > 0:02:31Is now, if you can hear, the jets are bombing.
0:02:31 > 0:02:39With hundreds dead over the last few days, and many more injured, medics
0:02:39 > 0:02:42there are struggling to cope, and it's a battle that this doctor
0:02:42 > 0:02:46says they are losing.
0:02:46 > 0:02:50When you get injury to the hospital, you expect to deal
0:02:50 > 0:02:58with 70, 80 injuries at the same time.
0:02:58 > 0:03:02This, you cannot imagine any hospital can deal with these
0:03:02 > 0:03:07numerous cases.
0:03:07 > 0:03:13Ultimately, events are likely to go only one way for
0:03:13 > 0:03:15the people who are bombarded and besieged in Eastern Ghouta -
0:03:15 > 0:03:19evacuation.
0:03:19 > 0:03:26This was the fate of this rebel held area. And then east Aleppo several
0:03:26 > 0:03:32months later and finally Homs in 2017. People were pounded and
0:03:32 > 0:03:37starved into submission before being taken to rebel held Idlib province.
0:03:37 > 0:03:43Death and destruction has not been all one way. Mortars have been fired
0:03:43 > 0:03:47into downtown Damascus by rebel groups in Eastern Ghouta, one of
0:03:47 > 0:03:54which had formal ties with Al-Qaeda. One former British ambassador to
0:03:54 > 0:03:59Syria who is a director of a group with links to President Assad's
0:03:59 > 0:04:04family believes the pictures we are seeing do not reflect.It. Do you
0:04:04 > 0:04:12think it remarkable in the harrowing video we are being regaled with, the
0:04:12 > 0:04:18war pornography we are wallowing in, is it remarkable you never see the
0:04:18 > 0:04:23thousands, probably 7000, 8000 jihadi warriors who won there and
0:04:23 > 0:04:29why not? Because all the images we see come from the jihadis and
0:04:29 > 0:04:36auxiliaries in Eastern Ghouta, who are adept at stirring western
0:04:36 > 0:04:40sympathy, hoping we are going to come in over the horizon to save
0:04:40 > 0:04:46them.A spokesman for the White Helmets rescue teams in Eastern
0:04:46 > 0:04:51Ghouta said there is a good reason for that.You do not see them
0:04:51 > 0:04:55because they are targeting directly civilian neighbourhoods. At the
0:04:55 > 0:05:04front lines. They are at the front lines. There is no one armed between
0:05:04 > 0:05:09civilians.The horrors happening in Eastern Ghouta mirror the fate of
0:05:09 > 0:05:15East Aleppo. It brings back terrible memories to this woman, who I have
0:05:15 > 0:05:18interviewed many times, before she narrowly escaped from the city with
0:05:18 > 0:05:27her life.We can present the same feeling we have felt in the past. I
0:05:27 > 0:05:38can hear the sound and crying of the kids.
0:05:38 > 0:05:47kids. I can even smell the dust of bombing.
0:05:47 > 0:05:56bombing.So what chance a ceasefire? Some are optimistic.A ceasefire,
0:05:56 > 0:06:01every
0:06:02 > 0:06:08every time when the start, he begins bombing and shelling.If any
0:06:08 > 0:06:14ceasefire deal here is to last, it will require trust on all sides.
0:06:14 > 0:06:20Right now, there is precious little of that. Mike Thompson.
0:06:20 > 0:06:22Nowhere are the effects of those delays at the United Nations
0:06:22 > 0:06:25being felt tonight as firmly as in eastern Ghouta itself.
0:06:25 > 0:06:27Before we came on air, I spoke to Mahmoud Bwedany.
0:06:27 > 0:06:30He's a 20-year-old student activist who has spent much of the last
0:06:30 > 0:06:35week in an underground shelter with his family.
0:06:35 > 0:06:38The regime claims the images we are seeing look worse in eastern Goutha
0:06:38 > 0:06:39than it actually is.
0:06:39 > 0:06:41I asked Mahmoud about his experience.
0:06:41 > 0:06:44Well, how can we make it worse?
0:06:44 > 0:06:50It's the worst situation there is.
0:06:50 > 0:06:54And I am witnessing these things before my eyes.
0:06:54 > 0:06:59When the bomb landed, near us, the children
0:06:59 > 0:07:07panicked and were crying out loud.
0:07:07 > 0:07:15They were not holding any guns.
0:07:15 > 0:07:17The front line aren't being bombed as heavy
0:07:17 > 0:07:18as the centres of the city.
0:07:18 > 0:07:22You perhaps have heard that the United
0:07:22 > 0:07:27Nations is struggling to get a ceasefire motion agreed.
0:07:27 > 0:07:34The Russians are obviously saying they
0:07:34 > 0:07:37will veto the motion, the Swedish- Kuwaiti motion for 30 days of
0:07:37 > 0:07:38ceasefire.
0:07:38 > 0:07:39It must be frustrating for you.
0:07:39 > 0:07:43What is devastating, the international community is not
0:07:43 > 0:07:46doing any actions to prevent the tragedies
0:07:46 > 0:07:51from happening in this area.
0:07:51 > 0:07:54400 people were killed in the last five days.
0:07:54 > 0:07:5732 casualties just today.
0:07:57 > 0:08:01And a lot of wounded.
0:08:01 > 0:08:04The medical staff is overwhelmed with patients and
0:08:04 > 0:08:09injured people from the bombardment.
0:08:09 > 0:08:12They are working most of the day, I think more than ten hours.
0:08:12 > 0:08:14It is horrible.
0:08:14 > 0:08:16The international community...
0:08:16 > 0:08:24Go on.
0:08:24 > 0:08:28They are still delaying the meeting and we probably
0:08:28 > 0:08:31know the Russians will veto this motion.
0:08:31 > 0:08:37What is your hope?
0:08:37 > 0:08:38A UN resolution for a 30-day ceasefire
0:08:38 > 0:08:44would be enormously helpful.
0:08:44 > 0:08:47Well, that is not something I know for
0:08:47 > 0:08:49sure what to say about.
0:08:49 > 0:08:56But I think that is the international community,
0:08:56 > 0:08:59the world leaders' job, to fight war crimes to prevent more tragedies
0:08:59 > 0:09:01from happening.
0:09:01 > 0:09:07So I hope the ceasefire goes through.
0:09:07 > 0:09:11This is a difficult question.
0:09:11 > 0:09:19Is there any way, if you could surrender and just
0:09:19 > 0:09:21get out, would you contemplate, at some point, the
0:09:21 > 0:09:25white flag might have to go up?
0:09:25 > 0:09:28Well, that is just devastating.
0:09:28 > 0:09:32First, displacement is not the solution
0:09:32 > 0:09:37to what we are living in.
0:09:37 > 0:09:41The problem is that the regime and Russia
0:09:41 > 0:09:46and the forces that are in
0:09:46 > 0:09:49the alliance, they are attacking Ghouta and other places in Syria.
0:09:49 > 0:09:52That is the problem.
0:09:52 > 0:09:56The solution is not to get everyone out of their
0:09:56 > 0:09:57homes and move them out of their lands,
0:09:57 > 0:09:59and into God knows where.
0:09:59 > 0:10:05The solution is to push Assad and the
0:10:05 > 0:10:08regime, I'm sorry, the regime and Russia to stop this assault
0:10:08 > 0:10:12and to let this country get back on its feet
0:10:12 > 0:10:17with a legitimate country, legitimate government that respects
0:10:17 > 0:10:21human rights and believes in equality.
0:10:21 > 0:10:25Does everybody in Eastern Ghouta believe that?
0:10:25 > 0:10:31Do you think there are people who want to escape
0:10:31 > 0:10:33and just want to stop the war at any price,
0:10:33 > 0:10:36or do you think everybody there holds firm to the description
0:10:36 > 0:10:40you have just given me of your views?
0:10:40 > 0:10:44Well, not everyone.
0:10:44 > 0:10:47Of course there are people who are tired and
0:10:47 > 0:10:50have suffered so much in this war.
0:10:50 > 0:10:54So, yes, some people might think of that as a solution.
0:10:54 > 0:10:59But, let's face it, nobody can guarantee what will
0:10:59 > 0:11:04happen if they decided to move us out of this area.
0:11:04 > 0:11:12They might take everyone to the slaughterhouses and
0:11:12 > 0:11:14just execute.
0:11:14 > 0:11:14Everyone against this regime.
0:11:14 > 0:11:19And who fought in this revolution.
0:11:19 > 0:11:22If that is going to be our choice, then the entire world
0:11:22 > 0:11:23has not done anything.
0:11:23 > 0:11:28Mahmoud, it is very good of you to talk to us
0:11:28 > 0:11:33and describe the plight there, which obviously everybody here
0:11:33 > 0:11:35thinks is quite horrific.
0:11:35 > 0:11:37We wish you all the best, very much.
0:11:37 > 0:11:42Thank you.
0:11:42 > 0:11:45Northern Ireland was condemned today by a UN committee.
0:11:45 > 0:11:51The Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women
0:11:51 > 0:11:53attacked the fact that Northern Ireland criminalises
0:11:53 > 0:11:55abortion, restricting it even in cases of rape,
0:11:55 > 0:11:57incest or fatal foetal abnormality.
0:11:57 > 0:12:00The committee said the restrictions caused great harm and suffering.
0:12:00 > 0:12:03This is pretty routine criticism, but the strange thing
0:12:03 > 0:12:07about it is that it's aimed at a piece of the UK,
0:12:07 > 0:12:11and yet most people in the UK would probably agree with it.
0:12:11 > 0:12:13Northern Ireland has allowed itself to become
0:12:13 > 0:12:16an exceptional piece of the UK, in clinging to some socially
0:12:16 > 0:12:17conservative norms.
0:12:17 > 0:12:21It is the one nation not to have same-sex marriage for example.
0:12:21 > 0:12:24And yet it's a complicated picture there because polls
0:12:24 > 0:12:30in Northern Ireland show support for liberalisation of the abortion
0:12:30 > 0:12:32law and support for same-sex marriage.
0:12:32 > 0:12:33Matthew Thompson has been looking at the strength
0:12:33 > 0:12:40of social conservatism there.
0:12:40 > 0:12:43The history of Ireland is traced upon the cross.
0:12:43 > 0:12:48In this land of saints and scholars, religion held
0:12:48 > 0:12:53immense power over minds, lives, and indeed, deaths.
0:12:53 > 0:12:54Divided as they were, the island's squabbling
0:12:54 > 0:12:58churches were united by their stance on public morals.
0:12:58 > 0:13:02You will legislate perversion and immorality.
0:13:02 > 0:13:05But in recent years, most notably in the
0:13:05 > 0:13:07Republic, such attitudes have shifted.
0:13:07 > 0:13:09Scandals have shaken public faith in the Catholic church -
0:13:09 > 0:13:12secularism is on the march.
0:13:12 > 0:13:16The Republic's gay marriage referendum
0:13:16 > 0:13:19in 2015 left Northern Ireland nearly alone in Western Europe as one of
0:13:19 > 0:13:24the few places where same-sex marriage was still forbidden by law.
0:13:24 > 0:13:27Take the issue of abortion, however, and Ireland's isolation is even
0:13:27 > 0:13:30starker.
0:13:30 > 0:13:33Strict laws north and south of the border mean the island ranks
0:13:33 > 0:13:35alongside Andorra, Malta and San Marino as the most
0:13:35 > 0:13:38restrictive places in Europe.
0:13:38 > 0:13:40A forthcoming referendum in the Republic could
0:13:40 > 0:13:45compound Northern Ireland's isolation.
0:13:45 > 0:13:48With its religiouus quarrels and fractious political
0:13:48 > 0:13:51landscape, Northern Ireland can seem, to large swathes of British
0:13:51 > 0:13:54opinion, a place frozen in time.
0:13:54 > 0:14:00And nowhere is the country's social conservativism more in evidence than
0:14:00 > 0:14:03here in Ballymena, the buckle of Northern Ireland's Bible Belt.
0:14:03 > 0:14:06If you were voting, would you think it
0:14:06 > 0:14:08was important that the politicians were representing religious values?
0:14:08 > 0:14:11Yes, certainly, certainly.
0:14:11 > 0:14:15That's why I do support DUP, because they
0:14:15 > 0:14:17do have a lot of religious values on same-sex marriage
0:14:17 > 0:14:20and stuff, where, you know...
0:14:20 > 0:14:22Where is that all coming from?
0:14:22 > 0:14:26I have nothing against gay people in any way, but I don't think it's
0:14:26 > 0:14:27right for them to be married, definitely
0:14:27 > 0:14:29not, not the way I was brought up.
0:14:29 > 0:14:32The DUP is not the only party to hold these views.
0:14:32 > 0:14:34The Ulster Unionist Party, for one, is split on
0:14:34 > 0:14:36such issues.
0:14:36 > 0:14:38But the DUP's unique brand of fundamentalism find fertile
0:14:38 > 0:14:41ground here.
0:14:41 > 0:14:44The religion of the DUP informs the party's attitude to such
0:14:44 > 0:14:46questions as same-sex marriage and abortion.
0:14:46 > 0:14:50The fact is that on a scale of zero to ten, when we asked
0:14:50 > 0:14:54how much should faith and church condition the outlook of the DUP,
0:14:54 > 0:14:57members scale that at almost seven out of ten.
0:14:57 > 0:15:02It's difficult to imagine any other party across
0:15:02 > 0:15:05the United Kingdom having such an outlook,
0:15:05 > 0:15:06wanting faith and church to
0:15:06 > 0:15:07condition the outlook of their party.
0:15:07 > 0:15:10The power to legislate on social issues rests with Northern
0:15:10 > 0:15:15Ireland's devolved government, when it actually sits.
0:15:15 > 0:15:17The Assembly here at Stormont has declined to endorse
0:15:17 > 0:15:19more liberal legislation on both gay marriage and abortion.
0:15:19 > 0:15:21In 2015, a vote to legalise gay marriage was
0:15:21 > 0:15:26actually passed by a majority of one,
0:15:26 > 0:15:29but the DUP were able to use a
0:15:29 > 0:15:32controversial veto power, known as the Petition Of Concern, to block
0:15:32 > 0:15:33the legislation.
0:15:33 > 0:15:35This move, in defiance of both majority public
0:15:35 > 0:15:40opinion and the majority of Assembly members, provoked outrage.
0:15:40 > 0:15:44The 2017 Northern Ireland general election
0:15:44 > 0:15:49survey indicated that 54% of people supported same-sex marriage.
0:15:49 > 0:15:53Only 23% opposed it.
0:15:53 > 0:15:56Other polls have put support higher still.
0:15:56 > 0:15:59But only 50% of unionists were in favour, against
0:15:59 > 0:16:0066% of nationalists.
0:16:00 > 0:16:03And of DUP supporters, almost exactly as many
0:16:03 > 0:16:07oppose as support same-sex marriage.
0:16:07 > 0:16:10People's views in Northern Ireland on same-sex marriage are conditioned
0:16:10 > 0:16:12more by age than necessarily religion these days.
0:16:12 > 0:16:13And with a new generation coming through, the
0:16:13 > 0:16:16chances are that at some point, same-sex marriage will be allowed in
0:16:16 > 0:16:21Northern Ireland.
0:16:21 > 0:16:23As symbols of that new generation go, it's hard to look
0:16:23 > 0:16:26past the Sunflower bar in central Belfast.
0:16:26 > 0:16:31At the height of the Troubles, it was the scene of a
0:16:31 > 0:16:33loyalist terror attack that left three people dead.
0:16:33 > 0:16:36Now it's a trendy bar that attract a younger, more
0:16:36 > 0:16:38progressive crowd.
0:16:38 > 0:16:40These issues are incredibly important to students...
0:16:40 > 0:16:42These young people voice frustration with a political system that they
0:16:42 > 0:16:45feel isn't working for them.
0:16:45 > 0:16:47People, for a variety of reasons, continue
0:16:47 > 0:16:52to vote on a sort of community affiliation basis rather than
0:16:52 > 0:16:56particular social issues, so it isn't effective to necessarily say
0:16:56 > 0:16:59to people that they should vote for this particular party because they
0:16:59 > 0:17:04will bring abortion reform or marriage equality.
0:17:04 > 0:17:07It simply doesn't work that way in Northern Ireland yet.
0:17:07 > 0:17:11We know the kind of society that we want to be a part of, and we
0:17:11 > 0:17:13know that there is overwhelming public support for some of these
0:17:13 > 0:17:16issues, so it's really disappointing that some of our leaders can't
0:17:16 > 0:17:17actually enact that change.
0:17:17 > 0:17:19Olivia, you're the president of the National
0:17:19 > 0:17:21Union of Students in Ireland, and you've met
0:17:21 > 0:17:23actually with a lot of
0:17:23 > 0:17:27the parties, I think as recently as last week with the DUP, to talk
0:17:27 > 0:17:28about some of these issues.
0:17:28 > 0:17:29What...
0:17:29 > 0:17:32How did you come away from that?
0:17:32 > 0:17:34I don't think anything has come out of
0:17:34 > 0:17:36these talks that wasn't really to be expected, personally.
0:17:36 > 0:17:38I think, if anything, one of the things that's
0:17:38 > 0:17:39become crystal-clear is, for any progress
0:17:39 > 0:17:43to be made in any sort of
0:17:43 > 0:17:45area in legislation in Northern Ireland,
0:17:45 > 0:17:47the Petition Of Concern is most definitely in need of some
0:17:47 > 0:17:49desperate reform, and it is unclear
0:17:49 > 0:17:52as to whether or not any of the parties have a clear path
0:17:52 > 0:17:54forward for how that should be done.
0:17:54 > 0:17:56Sinn Fein have made much in recent years
0:17:56 > 0:17:59of what they call the equality agenda, but their position on
0:17:59 > 0:18:01abortion has only recently softened, and they still don't officially
0:18:01 > 0:18:02support any unrestricted access.
0:18:02 > 0:18:04The nationalist SDLP, sister party of
0:18:04 > 0:18:10Labour, remains staunchly pro-life.
0:18:10 > 0:18:13In October, the Supreme Court heard an appeal from the Northern Ireland
0:18:13 > 0:18:15Human Rights Commission against the country's abortion laws.
0:18:15 > 0:18:17That judgment is expected within the next month.
0:18:17 > 0:18:19The most recent Northern Ireland Life And Times Survey
0:18:19 > 0:18:22suggests that abortion is is another area in which politicians are out of
0:18:22 > 0:18:24step with public opinion.
0:18:24 > 0:18:31Ask people whether abortion should be given in
0:18:32 > 0:18:35the case of serious fatal abnormality, or in the case of rape
0:18:35 > 0:18:38or incest, and significant majorities are in favour.
0:18:38 > 0:18:41But ask if a woman should be able to have an
0:18:41 > 0:18:46abortion on demand and the balance tips significantly.
0:18:46 > 0:18:48Fully 60% of people are opposed in this instance.
0:18:48 > 0:18:51Overall, Catholics are more likely than Protestants to oppose abortion.
0:18:51 > 0:18:54For Sinn Fein, I think that what we see is
0:18:54 > 0:18:57a changing relationship of
0:18:57 > 0:19:01the citizens of Ireland with the Catholic church,
0:19:01 > 0:19:05so over the past 20 years, you see that, but Sinn Fein
0:19:05 > 0:19:07also having their position on the constitutional question,
0:19:07 > 0:19:08which is overwhelmingly supported.
0:19:08 > 0:19:11So, they can have this liberal agenda that's there.
0:19:11 > 0:19:15For the SDLP, they are more conservative traditionally, but I do
0:19:15 > 0:19:18think that they are going to change as attitudes
0:19:18 > 0:19:20change on the island of
0:19:20 > 0:19:24Ireland, where they will not want to be caught on the wrong side of
0:19:24 > 0:19:27social change.
0:19:27 > 0:19:29So, what hope for change for those who seek it?
0:19:29 > 0:19:35Absent reform, delivering same-sex marriage, will be an uphill struggle
0:19:35 > 0:19:40for a restored Assembly at Stormont, abortion even more so.
0:19:40 > 0:19:43Though, of course, the Supreme Court could
0:19:43 > 0:19:46force the issue.
0:19:46 > 0:19:47Should Stormont remain empty, direct rule ministers
0:19:47 > 0:19:49could legislate from London, but that will
0:19:49 > 0:19:50hardly be a priority for a
0:19:50 > 0:19:55Government dealing with Brexit and in bed with the DUP.
0:19:55 > 0:19:57Short-term, then, in spite of the will of a
0:19:57 > 0:20:01majority of its people, it seems likely that Ulster's peculiar
0:20:01 > 0:20:09political system will continue to say no.
0:20:09 > 0:20:13For three decades, London has been enjoying a long boom.
0:20:13 > 0:20:15Its economy, its population and its global status have all been
0:20:15 > 0:20:18growing to the point that it has sometimes felt increasingly
0:20:18 > 0:20:20disconnected from the rest of the country.
0:20:20 > 0:20:23It's almost taken for granted that there's that kind of imbalance.
0:20:23 > 0:20:25So listen carefully.
0:20:25 > 0:20:29Something strange is currently happening in the capital.
0:20:29 > 0:20:31It happened quite suddenly and unexpectedly.
0:20:31 > 0:20:33It could be nothing significant.
0:20:33 > 0:20:41But it could possibly be historic.
0:20:44 > 0:20:46It's public transport that offers the
0:20:46 > 0:20:50most important sign something's up.
0:20:50 > 0:20:53Actually, I've expressed that badly.
0:20:53 > 0:20:56It's that passenger numbers are down.
0:20:56 > 0:21:00The decline sounds small - bus journeys down 5% over the last
0:21:00 > 0:21:02two years, Tube journeys down 0.3%.
0:21:02 > 0:21:03But small falls cause a big headache
0:21:03 > 0:21:04for transport bosses.
0:21:04 > 0:21:11Infrastructure spending in London has been based on
0:21:11 > 0:21:13ever-growing passenger numbers.
0:21:13 > 0:21:15It was meant to be 1.44 billion Tube journeys
0:21:15 > 0:21:18next year.
0:21:18 > 0:21:20Now, it's expected to be 1.34 billion.
0:21:20 > 0:21:21The gap leaves hundreds of millions in lower
0:21:21 > 0:21:22revenues.
0:21:22 > 0:21:27It's not just London.
0:21:27 > 0:21:29A couple of years ago, I heard it from
0:21:29 > 0:21:32New York, that the subway ridership had levelled off and was beginning
0:21:32 > 0:21:40to decline, bus ridership in fact had started to fall before that.
0:21:41 > 0:21:46And since then, we've seen this phenomenon on extended to London,
0:21:46 > 0:21:50probably to Toronto, levelling off on the Paris Metro.
0:21:50 > 0:21:55And it appears as if something more broadly is
0:21:55 > 0:21:58occurring to big city transport and the ridership on it.
0:21:58 > 0:22:00Heads are being scratched in search of a definitive
0:22:00 > 0:22:01explanation.
0:22:01 > 0:22:02Is it the Uber effect, for example?
0:22:02 > 0:22:04People taking taxis rather than trains or buses.
0:22:04 > 0:22:06Is it cycling?
0:22:06 > 0:22:08Certainly, it can no longer be dismissed as an irrelevance in
0:22:08 > 0:22:09the big transport picture.
0:22:09 > 0:22:11Is it terror keeping people away from the
0:22:11 > 0:22:12crowds?
0:22:12 > 0:22:15Or is it that people shop from home these days and entertain
0:22:15 > 0:22:24themselves there too?
0:22:25 > 0:22:28I don't think this there's likely to be a single answer.
0:22:28 > 0:22:31It's more likely to be a complex one involving the way we
0:22:31 > 0:22:32live in and use big cities.
0:22:32 > 0:22:34It could just be something more than transport.
0:22:34 > 0:22:37The end of a three decade surge in the role of megacities.
0:22:37 > 0:22:39You see, it's not just transport feeding
0:22:39 > 0:22:40it.
0:22:40 > 0:22:48In London, museum visits are down as well, for example.
0:22:48 > 0:22:49The British Museum, down 8% in 2017.
0:22:49 > 0:22:50Not untypical of the sector.
0:22:50 > 0:22:52For years, mega city growth has felt like a law
0:22:52 > 0:22:56of nature.
0:22:56 > 0:22:59But you don't have to go back far to know that cities shrink
0:22:59 > 0:23:00as well as grow.
0:23:00 > 0:23:02London's population declined after the Second World War,
0:23:02 > 0:23:03right through to the 1980s.
0:23:03 > 0:23:05It was a story of managed decline.
0:23:05 > 0:23:08Is it possible that we are seeing an early
0:23:08 > 0:23:10sign that we've reached peak city, that the inevitable crowds,
0:23:10 > 0:23:13congestion and expense out way the advantages,
0:23:13 > 0:23:15that the long-awaited rebalancing to the rest of the
0:23:15 > 0:23:23country is poised to occur?
0:23:26 > 0:23:29Let's reflect on that, remembering that the population of London is
0:23:29 > 0:23:32still growing and the number of jobs is still growing.
0:23:32 > 0:23:34I'm joined now by Richard Florida, an American Urban Studies theorist
0:23:34 > 0:23:37and Professor at the University of Toronto, and by Sian
0:23:37 > 0:23:44Berry, a Green Party London Assembly member.
0:23:44 > 0:23:47Richard, do you think this is a turning point? Is something
0:23:47 > 0:23:53happening in some of the big cities? No, I think we live in a winner
0:23:53 > 0:23:56takes all urban system. London, New York and Toronto, that you mention,
0:23:56 > 0:24:02are big winners. Transit users are down because they walk, ride a bike
0:24:02 > 0:24:07or
0:24:08 > 0:24:11or take Uber. I put a long bet on London and I think it will be just
0:24:11 > 0:24:17fine.You accept that these cities have long cycles, and London and New
0:24:17 > 0:24:23York had a long cycle. They have had their period of decline.There was
0:24:23 > 0:24:29the period of mass suburbanisation after the war that took middle-class
0:24:29 > 0:24:34jobs out of the city, but what we have seen over the past 20 or 30
0:24:34 > 0:24:37years, and certainly since the turn of the 21st century, is this massive
0:24:37 > 0:24:45movement of jobs, of people, of the affluent and educated, but also of
0:24:45 > 0:24:48technology firms, which always used to be located in these suburban
0:24:48 > 0:24:54office complexes. They have come barrelling back, and the places that
0:24:54 > 0:24:58have grown more than anywhere are London, New York and downtown San
0:24:58 > 0:25:03Francisco, so I think you are right: If the long cycle after the war was
0:25:03 > 0:25:10the shrinkage of the city, the long cycle of the past generation, and
0:25:10 > 0:25:18certainly the past decade and a half, it is big world cities like
0:25:18 > 0:25:23London, New York and a few you have mentioned.Sian, is this just a
0:25:23 > 0:25:27transport thing or is there something bigger?One of the
0:25:27 > 0:25:30interesting part of why people are not taking so much public transport
0:25:30 > 0:25:34is that visitors from elsewhere in the UK are down, so that is part of
0:25:34 > 0:25:43your Museum figures. One of the reasons why you might not be taking
0:25:43 > 0:25:46so many journeys is partly that you have replaced things with technology
0:25:46 > 0:25:50and people delivering to you, but also that you can't afford that. You
0:25:50 > 0:25:54can't afford to go out... Not just the journey but the reason for it.
0:25:54 > 0:25:59And that is worrying. We are also seeing a drop in the number of
0:25:59 > 0:26:0620-something people coming to London.Run that passed me again.
0:26:06 > 0:26:11Population is still growing, is the big counterargument to any of this.
0:26:11 > 0:26:18Siam of course, London is a world city will
0:26:18 > 0:26:26city will stop --of course, London is a world city. Nobody wants to
0:26:26 > 0:26:29raise children in London because of air pollution, and they can't afford
0:26:29 > 0:26:33to offer even if they wanted. We have also seen a drop off in the
0:26:33 > 0:26:38number of 20-somethings coming in. I am not from London, I came in my
0:26:38 > 0:26:4120s, seeking my fortune, and those are the people we have to keep
0:26:41 > 0:26:46attracting. And from the rest of the UK, people don't see London as being
0:26:46 > 0:26:51as attractive as it was.You cannot move to London unless you have a job
0:26:51 > 0:26:55before you get here.I turned up with nothing but an overdraft and
0:26:55 > 0:26:59managed to survive because it was possible back then to get a bit of
0:26:59 > 0:27:03money together. Astronomical costs now. I think people are choosing
0:27:03 > 0:27:09other cities, and London cannot take its place for granted.I wonder if
0:27:09 > 0:27:15you are being too optimistic about the limits that you perceive. You
0:27:15 > 0:27:19just do reach a point where you say, that's it, we had 30 years of
0:27:19 > 0:27:25growth, and then it is not.Two points. She's absolutely right.
0:27:25 > 0:27:30First, London will continue to grow. It has overcome bigger problems than
0:27:30 > 0:27:35a decline in transit users. It has gone through world wars, bone to the
0:27:35 > 0:27:39ground. It is the most resilient city on the planet, maybe New York
0:27:39 > 0:27:47in second place. It is a tale of two cities, which we didn't talk about.
0:27:47 > 0:27:49London has replaced working people with rich people. Young people with
0:27:49 > 0:27:54old wealthy people. The people who use public transport tend to be
0:27:54 > 0:27:57working people and less wealthy people. The affluent people working
0:27:57 > 0:28:01in London do not live in London full-time. They owed a big flat and
0:28:01 > 0:28:08they do not take transit, but a private car, or Uber or something
0:28:08 > 0:28:18like that. I think public transit transport use a ship is not the key
0:28:18 > 0:28:24figure.I would like to give a Northern perspective on this. London
0:28:24 > 0:28:29has had all the money spent on transport over the last decades, and
0:28:29 > 0:28:33the North has craved some of it, and London is basically saying, we need
0:28:33 > 0:28:37a subsidy to pay for this that because we have built it now and it
0:28:37 > 0:28:43is not being used as we anticipated. We have had a lot of transport
0:28:43 > 0:28:50investment, but we need a shift from cars onto public transport. If I was
0:28:50 > 0:28:58to swap something, I would swap HS2 for something else.Won't this be
0:28:58 > 0:29:02taken as a sign that Crossrail 2, that money can be spent on the
0:29:02 > 0:29:06Northern Powerhouse, and there are a million things and suddenly all of
0:29:06 > 0:29:11that is open again, isn't it?We are desperately short of new housing for
0:29:11 > 0:29:17our families. Affordable housing needs to be built, and in areas that
0:29:17 > 0:29:22can be opened up by Crossrail 2, that need investment. They also need
0:29:22 > 0:29:28investment in mundane things like better bus routes. We need the
0:29:28 > 0:29:33Government to be giving us more powers and money from the car income
0:29:33 > 0:29:38they get.Very briefly, Richard, you wrote about the creative class that
0:29:38 > 0:29:43made these big world cities such dynamic places. At that class grown
0:29:43 > 0:29:48less creative?It has certainly be the case that the creative class
0:29:48 > 0:29:54revival has been a crisis of success. My new book is called The
0:29:54 > 0:29:58New Urban Crisis, and London is at the epicentre of this. The way that
0:29:58 > 0:30:03London grows in the future is to expand its boundaries to include
0:30:03 > 0:30:07those northern industrial cities, connected by high-speed rail. It not
0:30:07 > 0:30:11only becomes more dense, it connects to these areas through high-speed
0:30:11 > 0:30:16rail and that kind of transit is London's future.Thank you, both,
0:30:16 > 0:30:17very much indeed.
0:30:17 > 0:30:20Well that's all we have time for tonight.
0:30:20 > 0:30:22Before we go, news broke this evening of the death aged 73
0:30:22 > 0:30:23of soul star Eddy Amoo.
0:30:23 > 0:30:27He was a member of the band The Real Thing in the 1970s,
0:30:27 > 0:30:29who were pioneers of black British music and the first all-black band
0:30:29 > 0:30:31to reach number one here.
0:30:31 > 0:30:33That was with You To Me Are Everything in 1976.
0:30:33 > 0:30:36We'll leave you now with another of their performances -
0:30:36 > 0:30:44from Top of the Pops in 1977.
0:30:44 > 0:30:45Good night.
0:30:45 > 0:30:47# Love, love's such a wonderful thing.
0:30:47 > 0:30:51# Just think of the joys it can bring.
0:30:51 > 0:30:59# I've got so much love to give to you.
0:31:01 > 0:31:04# My love is a shelter.
0:31:04 > 0:31:08# Let me be your shade.
0:31:08 > 0:31:12# Somewhere you can run to.
0:31:12 > 0:31:16# Your troubles will fade.
0:31:16 > 0:31:19# Life's so full of shadows.
0:31:19 > 0:31:23# It's so full of pain.
0:31:23 > 0:31:27# Let my love surround you.
0:31:27 > 0:31:35# And keep out the pain.#