0:00:05 > 0:00:08Thought you'd settle in for a nice warm, cosy watch
0:00:08 > 0:00:09with Newsnight this evening?
0:00:09 > 0:00:10Well, we're reporting on:
0:00:10 > 0:00:11Democracy in Russia...
0:00:11 > 0:00:13Brexit!
0:00:13 > 0:00:16And this...
0:00:17 > 0:00:22Tonight, Gabriel Gatehouse follows the Russian presidential race
0:00:22 > 0:00:23with Opposition candidate Ksenia Sobchak.
0:00:23 > 0:00:25It's a fake election.
0:00:29 > 0:00:31It's a fake election?
0:00:31 > 0:00:34Yes, I'm always telling that.
0:00:34 > 0:00:40But is everything quite as it seems?
0:00:46 > 0:00:52Could it be that Ksenia Sobchak is doing the Kremlin's bidding?
0:00:52 > 0:00:57Also tonight, John Major today called for a free vote in Parliament
0:00:57 > 0:00:59on Brexit, with the possibility of a second referendum.
0:00:59 > 0:01:03It's fair to say Brexiteers are not impressed.
0:01:03 > 0:01:09I think generally a good idea for previous Prime Ministers, whatever
0:01:09 > 0:01:11their views on either side of this argument or any argument...
0:01:11 > 0:01:14Normally, if you haven't got anything positive to say,
0:01:14 > 0:01:15probably best to keep quiet.
0:01:15 > 0:01:21And did we used to be better at dealing with this?
0:01:25 > 0:01:33Good evening.
0:01:35 > 0:01:37From Syria, to cyber warfare, to the American Presidency,
0:01:37 > 0:01:40to energy supply - if you think the Russian Presidential election
0:01:40 > 0:01:42doesn't have an impact on our lives, think again.
0:01:42 > 0:01:44Tonight, an extraordinary film ahead of next month's vote.
0:01:44 > 0:01:46Tomorrow, Vladimir Putin delivers his annual address
0:01:46 > 0:01:48to the Russian parliament and other members of the Russian
0:01:48 > 0:01:50political elite.
0:01:50 > 0:01:53The speech is likely to contain a slew of spending promises,
0:01:53 > 0:01:56but even if he feels the need to go a-wooing, there's little
0:01:56 > 0:02:03doubt that he'll be the man delivering them
0:02:03 > 0:02:04after the election.
0:02:04 > 0:02:06The first round is in less than three weeks,
0:02:06 > 0:02:08and without some seismic upset, Putin will win
0:02:08 > 0:02:13his second consecutive term, and fourth term overall.
0:02:13 > 0:02:15In a race where at least one contender, Opposition
0:02:15 > 0:02:18leader Alexei Navalny has been barred from participating,
0:02:18 > 0:02:21why would anyone risk all to challenge Vladimir Putin?
0:02:21 > 0:02:23Ksenia Sobchak is a former Russian socialite turned
0:02:23 > 0:02:27Opposition journalist.
0:02:27 > 0:02:30She's now running for the Russian presidency.
0:02:30 > 0:02:32But many opposition supporters say she's a fake candidate,
0:02:32 > 0:02:34running a no-hope race to boost the Kremlin's
0:02:34 > 0:02:37democratic credentials.
0:02:37 > 0:02:40She herself admits she has no chance of winning.
0:02:40 > 0:02:43But take a deeper look, and her candidacy in fact reveals
0:02:43 > 0:02:47much about contemporary Russia.
0:02:47 > 0:02:50Gabriel Gatehouse joined Ksenia Sobchak on the campaign trail
0:02:50 > 0:02:53and found a twisted tale of intrigue, power struggles
0:02:53 > 0:02:55and family loyalties, in a country where nothing
0:02:55 > 0:02:58is as simple as it first appears.
0:03:12 > 0:03:15APPLAUSE
0:03:44 > 0:03:46In a Moscow nightclub, the Opposition candidate
0:03:46 > 0:03:52makes her pitch to the capital's cultural elite.
0:03:52 > 0:03:59Russian democracy is a strange and sometimes dangerous beast.
0:04:01 > 0:04:02It's a fake election.
0:04:02 > 0:04:03It's a fake election?
0:04:03 > 0:04:05Yes, I'm always telling that.
0:04:05 > 0:04:06Explain what you mean.
0:04:06 > 0:04:10I mean that like in a casino, where the winner's always the house,
0:04:10 > 0:04:15in Russian elections, the winner's always on Putin's side.
0:04:15 > 0:04:19So I'm taking part in the elections not to win, I have no
0:04:19 > 0:04:20illusions about that.
0:04:20 > 0:04:23I'm taking part to be heard.
0:04:32 > 0:04:36Once upon a time, in the capital of the Tsars, a girl was born
0:04:36 > 0:04:39with a silver spoon in her mouth.
0:04:39 > 0:04:42When the Communist empire collapsed, the chaotic transition to capitalism
0:04:42 > 0:04:49produced a sort of alchemy that turned silver into gold - for some.
0:04:49 > 0:04:53Ksenia Sobchak's family was one of those few.
0:04:53 > 0:04:56Her father, one of the founders of Russia's new democracy,
0:04:56 > 0:04:59became the mayor of St Petersburg.
0:04:59 > 0:05:02He would later die in uncertain circumstances,
0:05:02 > 0:05:04while his former deputy, a once unknown KGB officer,
0:05:04 > 0:05:08would become the most powerful man in Russia.
0:05:08 > 0:05:12He was a person who gave Putin his first job,
0:05:12 > 0:05:15I was a little girl then.
0:05:21 > 0:05:24But, by a strange twist of fate, nearly two decades later,
0:05:24 > 0:05:28the girl with the silver spoon would challenge the new Tsar
0:05:28 > 0:05:35for the highest office in the land.
0:05:50 > 0:05:55350 miles south of Moscow, the city of Kursk.
0:05:55 > 0:05:59Ksenia Sobchak is on the campaign trail.
0:05:59 > 0:06:02Her task here is to show that she can speak to
0:06:02 > 0:06:04ordinary Russians too.
0:06:04 > 0:06:10The biggest problem in Russia is not freedom of speech,
0:06:10 > 0:06:11unfortunately, for many people.
0:06:11 > 0:06:14It's the poverty.
0:06:16 > 0:06:18Out in the suburbs, residents have been complaining
0:06:18 > 0:06:24they can't get their children into a local nursery.
0:06:36 > 0:06:39Now she's haranguing some local officials.
0:06:39 > 0:06:42This is pretty much the kind of thing that Putin does
0:06:42 > 0:06:46when he goes around the regions.
0:07:03 > 0:07:07How do you feel like people react to you, coming - as you do -
0:07:07 > 0:07:09from quite a privileged background?
0:07:09 > 0:07:14You know, I don't try to be like "I am like one of you",
0:07:14 > 0:07:17because, well, it's not true.
0:07:17 > 0:07:20If I wear red lipstick in my everyday time,
0:07:20 > 0:07:22why should I go without make up to them?
0:07:22 > 0:07:25It's not kind of true, I'm not a populist.
0:07:25 > 0:07:30So, yes, I come in a good car and in good clothes,
0:07:30 > 0:07:33but I earned this money, I didn't steal that.
0:07:33 > 0:07:41Corruption is a big issue in this election for all candidates.
0:07:45 > 0:07:47After a slightly optimistic welcome at local campaign headquarters,
0:07:47 > 0:07:50Ksenia takes things one step further.
0:08:09 > 0:08:12In Russian politics, there are certain red lines;
0:08:12 > 0:08:15among them, Putin and his inner circle.
0:08:15 > 0:08:17Are you saying Putin is corrupt?
0:08:17 > 0:08:21I say that Putin created a system that allows those people to get
0:08:21 > 0:08:25funds from the state.
0:08:25 > 0:08:27Direct criticism of Putin feels dangerous,
0:08:27 > 0:08:34and out on the streets, many people simply don't want to know.
0:08:39 > 0:08:40Crazy.
0:08:40 > 0:08:42As soon as you approach people, they run away.
0:08:42 > 0:08:45But Sobchak's journey to dissidents has been an unusual one.
0:08:46 > 0:08:50When money gets into my hands, I spend everything.
0:08:50 > 0:08:55Clothes is where my budget stays.
0:08:55 > 0:09:01It's a lot, it's about $3000-4000 a month.
0:09:01 > 0:09:02I really like this sweater...
0:09:02 > 0:09:06In the first decade of this century, as millions of Russians struggled,
0:09:06 > 0:09:08Ksenia Sobchak transformed herself from society rich
0:09:08 > 0:09:15kid to TV celebrity.
0:09:16 > 0:09:21Feeding the masses a diet of reality television and branding
0:09:21 > 0:09:26herself simply Ksenia.
0:09:26 > 0:09:29But then, the girl with the silver spoon had another transformation.
0:09:29 > 0:09:31In 2011, she joined opposition protests and was promptly carted
0:09:31 > 0:09:37off to a police cell.
0:09:45 > 0:09:47Alexei Navalny - the movement's leader -
0:09:47 > 0:09:51has long been a thorn in the Kremlin's side.
0:09:51 > 0:09:54I was close with him all those years, we shared many values,
0:09:54 > 0:09:59and we are still sharing those values, I hope.
0:09:59 > 0:10:03But when Navalny was banned from standing in this year's
0:10:03 > 0:10:05elections, and Ksenia announced she was running instead,
0:10:05 > 0:10:08his supporters called her a traitor.
0:10:08 > 0:10:09Ksenia, they said, is a Kremlin agent -
0:10:09 > 0:10:16her campaign just more reality TV.
0:10:22 > 0:10:23Could that be true?
0:10:23 > 0:10:29Could it be that Ksenia Sobchak is doing the Kremlin's bidding?
0:10:29 > 0:10:32I paid a visit to her campaign headquarters, to meet one
0:10:32 > 0:10:35of her top advisers, a woman well versed in the dark arts
0:10:35 > 0:10:38of Russian politics.
0:10:38 > 0:10:45She should be, she used to work for Putin himself.
0:11:07 > 0:11:10Just to be clear, this is Sobchak's own campaign adviser saying, "Yes,
0:11:10 > 0:11:13we're playing the Kremlin's game", but in Russia, there's always more
0:11:13 > 0:11:21than one game going on.
0:11:40 > 0:11:43And that's exactly what Sobchak says she's trying to do.
0:11:43 > 0:11:46If there's one thing Ksenia understands, it's
0:11:46 > 0:11:49the power of television.
0:11:49 > 0:11:55She's using her candidacy to talk about issues that are taboo.
0:11:58 > 0:12:00To say this on state TV is heresy, genuinely subversive.
0:12:09 > 0:12:11Shocked presenters have resorted to surreal measures,
0:12:11 > 0:12:17to try to drown her out.
0:12:18 > 0:12:20But here is the conundrum, the Kremlin controls everything.
0:12:20 > 0:12:23Who gets to stand in elections, and who gets to go on TV.
0:12:23 > 0:12:26So, what is going on?
0:12:33 > 0:12:37Ksenia treads a delicate path.
0:12:37 > 0:12:41Before she set out on her journey, the girl with the silver spoon
0:12:41 > 0:12:45needed to get the approval of the Tsar in the Kremlin.
0:12:45 > 0:12:47She needed wise counsel.
0:13:03 > 0:13:04Alexei Venediktov is one of Russia's most famous
0:13:04 > 0:13:11and well-connected journalists.
0:13:18 > 0:13:21As it happens, Ksenia is in the process of making
0:13:21 > 0:13:25a film about her father, the former mayor of St Petersburg.
0:13:25 > 0:13:28Putin, who'd been his deputy, had agreed to an interview.
0:13:28 > 0:13:33So, in September, she went to see him in the Kremlin.
0:13:33 > 0:13:37And then in the end, I said this, that I took this decision and I just
0:13:37 > 0:13:41want you to know that I'm going to challenge you,
0:13:41 > 0:13:45and he was like silent for a second and said,
0:13:45 > 0:13:49"Well, it's your decision, but it's also your responsibility".
0:13:49 > 0:13:51What do you think you meant by that?
0:13:51 > 0:13:53Well, I don't want even to think about that,
0:13:53 > 0:13:56I don't think anything nice.
0:13:56 > 0:14:00And so, the Tsar decided to accept his challenger,
0:14:00 > 0:14:03but not everyone was happy.
0:14:03 > 0:14:05Behind the facade of monolithic power, different factions
0:14:05 > 0:14:13struggled for control.
0:14:45 > 0:14:47How indeed?
0:14:47 > 0:14:49How did the girl who spoke out against the Tsar get
0:14:49 > 0:14:52permission to run against him?
0:14:52 > 0:14:55The answer to this riddle lies buried in the past,
0:14:55 > 0:15:02when Putin worked for Ksenia's father in St Petersburg.
0:15:11 > 0:15:16Or perhaps it should more accurately be titled the 'Museum of How Russian
0:15:16 > 0:15:19Democracy Was Poisoned at Source'.
0:15:19 > 0:15:21The name Anatoly Sobchak stands alongside the likes
0:15:21 > 0:15:29of Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
0:15:36 > 0:15:39The story of how the anti-Soviet reformer chosen an obscure KGB
0:15:39 > 0:15:42officer as his deputy is also the story of how factions
0:15:42 > 0:15:46from the old Soviet security establishment have come to be
0:15:46 > 0:15:49running Russia today.
0:16:08 > 0:16:12Anatoly Sobchak was voted out of office in 1996,
0:16:12 > 0:16:15amid allegations of corruption.
0:16:15 > 0:16:17When investigators called him in for questioning, Putin helped
0:16:17 > 0:16:20spirit him out of the country.
0:16:27 > 0:16:30But in Moscow, factions were manoeuvring.
0:16:30 > 0:16:32Putin was being groomed as Yeltsin's successor.
0:16:32 > 0:16:39The battle was over who would have sway over the new leader.
0:16:39 > 0:16:41Then, in February 2000, Anatoly Sobchak died
0:16:41 > 0:16:44suddenly at the age of 62.
0:16:44 > 0:16:50At the funeral, Russia's new president was distraught.
0:16:50 > 0:16:54That was the first and last time everyone saw him crying in Russia.
0:16:54 > 0:16:57This day I still remember it, and one of the shocks
0:16:57 > 0:17:03I had was his reaction, he was totally killed by this.
0:17:06 > 0:17:08But what killed Sobchak?
0:17:08 > 0:17:12To this day, that remains a mystery.
0:17:12 > 0:17:13The original autopsy was inconclusive, and many
0:17:13 > 0:17:21were suspicious, including Sobchak's widow, Ksenia's mother.
0:18:02 > 0:18:06Narusova had her own autopsy performed, but instead
0:18:06 > 0:18:11of making the results public, she keeps locked in a safe
0:18:11 > 0:18:13of making the results public, she keeps them locked in a safe
0:18:13 > 0:18:17in a secret location.
0:18:39 > 0:18:43The Kremlin today is still a place of rival factions,
0:18:43 > 0:18:47to threaten their power is to take a terrible risk.
0:18:47 > 0:18:51The girl with the silver spoon is not a girl any more.
0:18:51 > 0:18:57Her family history may protect her, but only up to a point.
0:19:21 > 0:19:24Meanwhile, back on the Sobchak campaign trail...
0:19:34 > 0:19:36From public transport to pensions, to childcare -
0:19:36 > 0:19:39Ksenia listens to people's everyday problems as if she were a real
0:19:39 > 0:19:42candidate in a real election.
0:19:48 > 0:19:51The passengers on the Kursk trolley bus know all about Ksenia's
0:19:51 > 0:19:54family ties, and yet...
0:20:18 > 0:20:22What then is the purpose of all this elaborate theatre?
0:20:22 > 0:20:27If Ksenia is a threat to the regime, why let her run at all?
0:20:27 > 0:20:29I've spoken to a senior government official,
0:20:29 > 0:20:33on condition that I couldn't quote them by name.
0:20:33 > 0:20:35I said, "What's the point of having an election when everyone
0:20:35 > 0:20:43acknowledges that only one person can win?"
0:20:43 > 0:20:47They said, look, this is a western invention that you have.
0:20:47 > 0:20:49We don't have a classical democracy in Russia.
0:20:49 > 0:20:52We have what they called a 'developing democracy'.
0:20:52 > 0:20:56The truth is, Russian democracy has stopped developing.
0:20:56 > 0:20:59It is frozen, paralysed by two certain facts:
0:20:59 > 0:21:01Just as surely as Putin will win the next election,
0:21:01 > 0:21:08he will also not be around forever.
0:21:34 > 0:21:39Behind the walls of the Kremlin, powerful people are playing games.
0:21:39 > 0:21:41Ksenia Sobchak is a pawn.
0:21:41 > 0:21:43Some factions are pushing her forward,
0:21:43 > 0:21:48others want to hold her back.
0:21:48 > 0:21:51The girl with the silver spoon knows all this,
0:21:51 > 0:21:55but she thinks the pawn might just become a queen.
0:21:55 > 0:22:01That's my chess game.
0:22:01 > 0:22:04I played this option of going to elections,
0:22:04 > 0:22:08because I was thinking that I have a chance to go through,
0:22:08 > 0:22:12because of my name, because they underestimate me,
0:22:12 > 0:22:16because I have a past which they can always punch at me,
0:22:16 > 0:22:18because they're not afraid of me as much as Navalny,
0:22:18 > 0:22:20so these are my chances.
0:22:20 > 0:22:21Who's a better chess player, you or Putin?
0:22:21 > 0:22:24I don't know, we will see in the end.
0:22:24 > 0:22:31But the end is not near, because I'm only starting.
0:22:32 > 0:22:34And you can see a longer version of Gabriel Gatehouse's film
0:22:34 > 0:22:37on Our World on the BBC News Channel and on
0:22:37 > 0:22:40iPlayer this weekend.
0:22:40 > 0:22:43We asked the Russian embassy whether they'd like to comment
0:22:43 > 0:22:45on the Russian elections, and they told us that they weren't
0:22:45 > 0:22:47in a position to do so.
0:22:47 > 0:22:52But they did say that they invited all Russian citizens in the UK
0:22:52 > 0:22:55to vote in the March 18th presidential elections at polling
0:22:55 > 0:22:58booths in London and Edinburgh.
0:22:59 > 0:23:02There's no sign of a ceasefire in the Tory party over Brexit.
0:23:02 > 0:23:06Today, Sir John Major made that very clear with his depth charge
0:23:06 > 0:23:09of a speech calling for a free vote in Parliament on the final Brexit
0:23:09 > 0:23:11deal with the option of a second referendum,
0:23:11 > 0:23:16and hence the possibility of remaining within the EU.
0:23:16 > 0:23:19Always a passionate Remainer, the former Prime minister has denied
0:23:19 > 0:23:22he's trying to undermine Theresa May.
0:23:22 > 0:23:26But one of the "ultra Brexiteers" he was taking aim at,
0:23:26 > 0:23:28Jacob Rees-Mogg, said that Major was "all cheap comments
0:23:28 > 0:23:32and propaganda."
0:23:32 > 0:23:35Timing is all, and of course today's EU draft legal agreement has
0:23:35 > 0:23:39particular resonance for Sir John, whose dogged work on the Northern
0:23:39 > 0:23:43Ireland peace process led finally to the Good Friday Agreement.
0:23:43 > 0:23:46The idea of a "common regulatory area" for Ireland was rejected
0:23:46 > 0:23:50immediately by the Prime Minister.
0:23:50 > 0:23:54So, is the man who as Prime Minister in 1993 faced his own hell
0:23:54 > 0:23:57at the hands of the Maastricht rebels, now in full
0:23:57 > 0:24:00rebellion himself?
0:24:00 > 0:24:08One of those Maastrict rebels is here, but first, Nick Watt.
0:24:14 > 0:24:16Europe, a storm that has consumed successive Conservative prime
0:24:16 > 0:24:22ministers. When this one was bundled out of office, she promised to keep
0:24:22 > 0:24:29an eye on this one. When he exited the stage, he promised to be more
0:24:29 > 0:24:33friendly and was supportive of this one. But today, he cast his own
0:24:33 > 0:24:41shadow.Thank you very much and good afternoon, everyone.The
0:24:41 > 0:24:45mild-mannered former Prime Minister, usually punctilious and polite to a
0:24:45 > 0:24:51fault, if this are Theresa May on Brexit.For the moment, our
0:24:51 > 0:24:59self-imposed redlines have Ochs to be government into a corner. -- have
0:24:59 > 0:25:04boxed. They are so tilted to ultra-Brexit opinion, that even the
0:25:04 > 0:25:08Cabinet cannot agree them. And a majority in both houses of
0:25:08 > 0:25:12parliament oppose them. If maintained in full, it will be
0:25:12 > 0:25:18impossible to reach a favourable trade agreement.The intervention by
0:25:18 > 0:25:22the former Prime Minister echoed the private fears of many remain members
0:25:22 > 0:25:27of the Cabinet who have been fighting their lips. An old foe who
0:25:27 > 0:25:29clashed with the former Prime Minister on Europe was surprised to
0:25:29 > 0:25:34hear him call for a free vote in parliament on Brexit.During
0:25:34 > 0:25:39Maastricht there was such a strict whip imposed that there were a whole
0:25:39 > 0:25:42bunch of Conservative MPs who lost the whip for voting against the
0:25:42 > 0:25:46whip. That means being kicked out of the party and parliament. They were
0:25:46 > 0:25:51stateless, as it were. And people were shipped in by ambulance and all
0:25:51 > 0:25:54sorts of things, to comply with the vote, such was the benign and kind
0:25:54 > 0:25:59nature of the then regime, which I do believe at that stage was led by
0:25:59 > 0:26:04John Major.Pro-Europeans welcomed John Major's intervention.You go
0:26:04 > 0:26:09into a negotiation knowing he will have to make some concessions in
0:26:09 > 0:26:13return for gaining some. The quite rightly pointed out that every time
0:26:13 > 0:26:18we create a red line, Europe in turn removes options from the table for
0:26:18 > 0:26:27the UK.Sir John chose a significant moment to issue his warning. A few
0:26:27 > 0:26:33hours earlier, the EU's chief negotiator upped the ante. By
0:26:33 > 0:26:38tabling a series of demands that trampled all over the UK's Brexit
0:26:38 > 0:26:44redlines. A new European Commission draft of the UK and EU withdrawal
0:26:44 > 0:26:48treaty calls for "A common regulatory area between Northern
0:26:48 > 0:26:52Ireland and the Irish Republic if the UK and EU failed to negotiate a
0:26:52 > 0:26:55comprehensive free trade deal"
0:26:55 > 0:26:56the UK and EU failed to negotiate a comprehensive free trade deal". A
0:26:56 > 0:26:59definitive role for the European Court of Justice in policing the
0:26:59 > 0:27:05withdrawal agreement. Theresa May rejected the EU's proposals, which
0:27:05 > 0:27:09could place a border within the UK between Northern Ireland and Great
0:27:09 > 0:27:15Britain.The draft legal text the commission have published would, if
0:27:15 > 0:27:19implement it, undermine the UK, market and threaten constitutional
0:27:19 > 0:27:23integrity of the UK by creating a customs and regulatory border down
0:27:23 > 0:27:28the Irish Sea. And no UK Prime Minister could ever agree to it. I
0:27:28 > 0:27:33will be making it crystal clear to President Juncker and others that we
0:27:33 > 0:27:39will never do so.In Downing Street officials acknowledge Brexit
0:27:39 > 0:27:41negotiations are entering a crunch phase ahead of a showdown summit in
0:27:41 > 0:27:47three weeks' time. Ministers leading to the Brexit side believes the EU
0:27:47 > 0:27:51is turning the screws to improve its negotiating position. -- ministers
0:27:51 > 0:27:56leaning. Other ministers fear that the long drawn-out process to reach
0:27:56 > 0:28:01a Cabinet consensus on the future trading relationship has provided an
0:28:01 > 0:28:07opening that the EU is exploiting. Even a Prime Minister cocooned in
0:28:07 > 0:28:11their security bubble cannot escape the UK's Chile visitor from the
0:28:11 > 0:28:20east. When the elements turn, it can feel like the world is closing in.
0:28:20 > 0:28:24Nick is here now.
0:28:24 > 0:28:27Simulate a reaction tonight? I was just talking to Lord Howard about
0:28:27 > 0:28:31that John Major speech. He says it is very sad the former Prime
0:28:31 > 0:28:35Minister cannot come to terms with the results of the British people.
0:28:35 > 0:28:38You will remember Michael Howard had run-ins with John Major when he was
0:28:38 > 0:28:45a member of his Cabinet in 1990s ovate Europe. He was labelled by
0:28:45 > 0:28:52John major as a bustard. I asked about feud was going and this is
0:28:52 > 0:28:56what he said.He wasn't keen on free votes at that time, no questions
0:28:56 > 0:29:04about that. Indeed, this speech was full of rich ironies. I seem to
0:29:04 > 0:29:08remember that when he was Prime Minister, he was quite upset about
0:29:08 > 0:29:14the interventions of one of his predecessors. I think he was called
0:29:14 > 0:29:18back-seat driving in those days.The Cabinet will meet tomorrow to
0:29:18 > 0:29:23approve the decision by the Cabinet subcommittee, Brexit subcommittee,
0:29:23 > 0:29:28to have the end state negotiations pursuing an ambitious managed
0:29:28 > 0:29:33divergences. That really is going to set the countdown, a three-week
0:29:33 > 0:29:36countdown to the opening council at the end of March, where hopefully
0:29:36 > 0:29:41guidelines will be agreed on the future, the nature of the future
0:29:41 > 0:29:45trading relationship. I asked Michael Howard what he thinks of
0:29:45 > 0:29:48that Cabinet decision we are likely to get tomorrow and this is what he
0:29:48 > 0:29:53had to say. I do think it's realistic. It's
0:29:53 > 0:29:58realistic because the European Union, at the end of the day, wants
0:29:58 > 0:30:03a deal, it wants a deal on goods and services because it sells more goods
0:30:03 > 0:30:09to us than we do to them. It uses London not because they love us but
0:30:09 > 0:30:12because it's the most efficient capital market in the world and they
0:30:12 > 0:30:16want the deal because they want our money, and without a deal, they
0:30:16 > 0:30:26won't get it.Michael Howard, thank you.
0:30:26 > 0:30:29I'm now joined by one of those Maastricht rebels who made
0:30:29 > 0:30:31John Major's life in office a misery,
0:30:31 > 0:30:32Sir Bill Cash.
0:30:32 > 0:30:35He rebelled the party whip 48 times during the period and is now Chair
0:30:35 > 0:30:37of the European Scrutiny Committee.
0:30:37 > 0:30:45Good evening. . I want to start with a tweet by George Osborne. Why this
0:30:45 > 0:30:49synthetic Brexiteer anger over the EU tax and Irish border. Number ten
0:30:49 > 0:30:53made key concessions in December, they made a deal in which you all
0:30:53 > 0:30:57cheered, in the absence of agreed solutions UK will maintain full
0:30:57 > 0:31:03alignment with the EU and Customs union.Look, basically what they
0:31:03 > 0:31:07said in this draft legal text, and my European scrutiny committee are
0:31:07 > 0:31:11looking at it right now, the bottom line is what they are trying to do
0:31:11 > 0:31:18is to create a constitutional crisis in the UK. This is basically the EU
0:31:18 > 0:31:22which is seeking to achieve this hardboard, where actually they have
0:31:22 > 0:31:26said they don't want it. We have also said we don't want it and the
0:31:26 > 0:31:30Irish government has said they don't want it. Nothing synthetic about
0:31:30 > 0:31:35this. Have actually created, trying to create a constitutional crisis.
0:31:35 > 0:31:42The truth is, the question of the Irish border is a key issue in
0:31:42 > 0:31:47Brexit. It's not some kind of fake argument. You have a situation here
0:31:47 > 0:31:52now where you have either got a customs union or you get a border.
0:31:52 > 0:31:56If you take for example that we've got the Euro row at one end of
0:31:56 > 0:32:01Ireland and the pound at the other, you have different fiscal
0:32:01 > 0:32:05arrangements, you've got different corporation tax, there are
0:32:05 > 0:32:09differences already within Ireland north and south.Do you believe it
0:32:09 > 0:32:18can be something like Boris a -- Johnson said, congestion charge?
0:32:18 > 0:32:23Bertie Ahern...Nobody is prepared to say what would be in place from
0:32:23 > 0:32:27the British side just now, we are still waiting.I don't agree with
0:32:27 > 0:32:31that, we put forward proposals on those proposals are based on the
0:32:31 > 0:32:35fact there are technical ways of dealing with it. Bertie Ahern
0:32:35 > 0:32:40actually said you can turn a blind eye to a lot of the local trade and
0:32:40 > 0:32:47that most of this stuff...A blind eye?There is a Swedish expert and
0:32:47 > 0:32:52Customs who says it is perfectly feasible to do it. Real experts were
0:32:52 > 0:32:57saying that. The EU are trying to dig in and over this, in order to
0:32:57 > 0:33:01create maximum trouble for the government.It's very, very obvious.
0:33:01 > 0:33:08Also the concern with the government, with the goodwill of the
0:33:08 > 0:33:10DUP, do you think what you are fighting for is worth threatening
0:33:10 > 0:33:14the Good Friday Agreement?It is not threatening the Good Friday
0:33:14 > 0:33:19Agreement. The Prime Minister today said we are going to stand by the
0:33:19 > 0:33:23Good Friday Agreement, everybody will stand by it. The bottom line is
0:33:23 > 0:33:31this is the synthetic argument, as you said from George Osborne, author
0:33:31 > 0:33:34of Project Fear, this is the synthetic part of the argument which
0:33:34 > 0:33:39is coming from the EU. There is no need for them to do this but they
0:33:39 > 0:33:42are doing it in order to create maximum trouble for our
0:33:42 > 0:33:50negotiations.By John Major's speech today it is very clear there is no
0:33:50 > 0:33:54harmony in the Conservative Party, never mind conservative membership,
0:33:54 > 0:34:01all about the kind of Brexit there should be. He famously called you
0:34:01 > 0:34:08one
0:34:08 > 0:34:12one knows the bastards in the Maastricht Treaty.I thought I was
0:34:12 > 0:34:15watching another edition of spitting image when I saw the speech he gave
0:34:15 > 0:34:20today. I actually think the real problem here is that he can't come
0:34:20 > 0:34:26to terms with the fact he has lost the debate. Actually, it much worse
0:34:26 > 0:34:29than that because when you examine what he says, he talks about
0:34:29 > 0:34:36conscience voting for study talks about a second referendum. I do
0:34:36 > 0:34:39remember a thing called the Maastricht referendum campaign,
0:34:39 > 0:34:47which I organised with some friends. Give a free vote now.The position
0:34:47 > 0:34:52was neither an Maastricht or in relation to the Lisbon Treaty have
0:34:52 > 0:34:55ever been any free votes on this question.Bill Cash, thanks very
0:34:55 > 0:35:01much indeed.
0:35:02 > 0:35:05On the eve of meteorological spring...
0:35:05 > 0:35:08It was the bleak midwinter today for millions of people in the UK.
0:35:08 > 0:35:12We've all had our fun with the Beast from the East but tonight it is set
0:35:12 > 0:35:14to evolve into the much more menacing Storm Emma.
0:35:14 > 0:35:17The mercury could sink to minus 15 where there's snow
0:35:17 > 0:35:20on the ground, and the blizzards, gales and sleet just keep coming.
0:35:20 > 0:35:21Worst affected is Scotland, with a red warning.
0:35:21 > 0:35:24Earlier, I spoke to Lorna Gordon, who's in Glasgow.
0:35:24 > 0:35:27I asked her whether there were any signs of supplies running low.
0:35:28 > 0:35:31I did a quick run through a couple of shops in some
0:35:31 > 0:35:32of the areas I have been today.
0:35:32 > 0:35:34So far, so good.
0:35:34 > 0:35:35I think Scots are pretty stoic.
0:35:35 > 0:35:37We are used to the bad weather.
0:35:37 > 0:35:40It takes quite a bit to rattle people up here.
0:35:40 > 0:35:43So the shops, I think, are doing OK so far.
0:35:43 > 0:35:46But this is an extended period of bad weather.
0:35:46 > 0:35:50We're talking about that red warning in place
0:35:50 > 0:35:51until tomorrow morning thus far.
0:35:51 > 0:35:55But the bad weather will continue beyond that.
0:35:55 > 0:36:01But, yes, a big impact on public transport here in Glasgow
0:36:01 > 0:36:03and in fact over this large red warning area that affects
0:36:03 > 0:36:043.5 million people.
0:36:04 > 0:36:06No trains running.
0:36:06 > 0:36:09Here in Glasgow, no buses running.
0:36:09 > 0:36:13And you can see from the road here, very few cars out on the streets
0:36:13 > 0:36:15as well, at least in the urban city centre areas.
0:36:15 > 0:36:18One of the most obvious effects of the snow is the closure
0:36:18 > 0:36:22of hundreds of schools.
0:36:22 > 0:36:30Hundreds of thousands of children in Scotland lobby off tomorrow. -- will
0:36:30 > 0:36:31be off tomorrow.
0:36:31 > 0:36:34With me in the studio is Geoff Barton, General Secretary
0:36:34 > 0:36:36of the Association of School and College Leaders.
0:36:36 > 0:36:40Good evening. Is it an easier decision to close a school than keep
0:36:40 > 0:36:46it open?It is always a difficult decision. I think today maybe a
0:36:46 > 0:36:49slightly easier decision, given the scale of what is happening. I have
0:36:49 > 0:36:53had people contacting me today, some of whom are new headteachers, really
0:36:53 > 0:36:56anxious about whether they have made the right call and some veterans
0:36:56 > 0:37:00also. Ultimately the decision we're making is about looking after
0:37:00 > 0:37:04children and making sure we can protect them and get the staff in to
0:37:04 > 0:37:14supervise them.
0:37:16 > 0:37:18You could get the staff in, the appearance of one teacher would mean
0:37:18 > 0:37:21that the families of 30 kids could be out of work supporting the
0:37:21 > 0:37:23economy.What is distinctive about a school is in my case, 1500 students.
0:37:23 > 0:37:26What you had to do is make sure if you had 1500 students going to
0:37:26 > 0:37:29school, did you have sufficient staff to supervise a man for the
0:37:29 > 0:37:33quality of teaching? All I knew is with 85 teaching staff, there was
0:37:33 > 0:37:37about 30 of those who lived more than 20 miles away from the school.
0:37:37 > 0:37:41So the decision was, can I safely supervise those students and bring
0:37:41 > 0:37:48staffing to do it? Every member of the leadership teams in all schools
0:37:48 > 0:37:51will be making that decision before seven o'clock, in order to inform
0:37:51 > 0:37:55parents of the decision.There is now, here, the safety of the
0:37:55 > 0:37:58children but also in attendance, record of attendance. If you leave
0:37:58 > 0:38:03school open and children can't get there, then the attendance record
0:38:03 > 0:38:07gets completely shot.There is a scale of different considerations.
0:38:07 > 0:38:11The number one, which parents would want to hear as saying, which is the
0:38:11 > 0:38:14most important, is good week supervise their child safely, that
0:38:14 > 0:38:18is most important. And I'll be able to give some kind of educational
0:38:18 > 0:38:25quality to what we're doing. I know there was a day when I decided to
0:38:25 > 0:38:28close the school, in my 15 years of being head, there were three times.
0:38:28 > 0:38:30One diagnostic, by 11 o'clock it cleared I felt humiliated. It will
0:38:30 > 0:38:36always be a difficult call.It's a difficult thing to leave the school
0:38:36 > 0:38:39open to see who comes on the kids who don't come then get marks on
0:38:39 > 0:38:44their attendance record which the school order to avoid that, you
0:38:44 > 0:38:50close the school?That is such a small issue. What you would do if
0:38:50 > 0:38:53their school is close, you would authorise the attendance of the
0:38:53 > 0:38:57children who are not there because you are in extreme circumstances. If
0:38:57 > 0:39:01parents were unhappy about the decision, the governing body hold
0:39:01 > 0:39:04you accountable. It is the chair's decision that you report to the
0:39:04 > 0:39:06governing body and you are accountable for that. Leadership is
0:39:06 > 0:39:10about making a decision. That followed the people today have done
0:39:10 > 0:39:16in the of mourning.Is the primary consideration health and safety?
0:39:16 > 0:39:20Health and safety but not that caricature of health and safety, are
0:39:20 > 0:39:23we worried lots of children will slip on the Pegram? They could slip
0:39:23 > 0:39:26on the street. That is not to say you wouldn't want to be concerned
0:39:26 > 0:39:30about that but the number one is, can I supervise the number of
0:39:30 > 0:39:35students in school by bringing staff who can do it?Why is this so
0:39:35 > 0:39:40different, briefly, from 1963 when schools did stay open on this didn't
0:39:40 > 0:39:46happen?Just like lots of things are different from 1963. Parental choice
0:39:46 > 0:39:50means more children will be travelling further, more children
0:39:50 > 0:39:54travelling on parental cars they were before. I don't think we can do
0:39:54 > 0:39:59like for like comparison of 1963. Thank you very much indeed.
0:39:59 > 0:40:01That's almost all for this evening.
0:40:01 > 0:40:04A quick well done to the Newsnight team which picked up
0:40:04 > 0:40:05two RTS awards tonight for the programme's coverage
0:40:05 > 0:40:08of Grenfell and our film on the Rohingya massacre.
0:40:08 > 0:40:10Tomorrow, I'll be talking to Brett Anderson, frontman of Suede -
0:40:10 > 0:40:12and he doesn't hold back on Britpop...
0:40:12 > 0:40:15I think it kind of became...
0:40:15 > 0:40:18It mutated from a Mike Leigh film into a Carry On film.
0:40:23 > 0:40:24More from that tomorrow.
0:40:24 > 0:40:26But, before we go, Civilisations, a new nine part series
0:40:26 > 0:40:29on the history of art, starts tomorrow on BBC Two.
0:40:29 > 0:40:31It follows from the legendary original, Civilisation,
0:40:31 > 0:40:32presented by Kenneth Clark in 1969.
0:40:32 > 0:40:35We thought we'd leave you where that original series left off,
0:40:35 > 0:40:41with Clark musing on a poem by WB Yeats.
0:40:41 > 0:40:47"Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
0:40:47 > 0:40:50Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
0:40:50 > 0:40:52The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
0:40:52 > 0:40:57The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
0:40:57 > 0:41:02The best lack all conviction, while the worst
0:41:02 > 0:41:08Are full of passionate intensity."
0:41:08 > 0:41:10Well, that was certainly true between the wars, and it
0:41:10 > 0:41:14damn nearly destroyed us.
0:41:14 > 0:41:17Is it true today?
0:41:17 > 0:41:21Not quite, because good people have convictions -
0:41:21 > 0:41:23rather too many of them.
0:41:23 > 0:41:27The trouble is that there is still no centre.
0:41:27 > 0:41:29The moral and intellectual failure of Marxism
0:41:29 > 0:41:35has left us with no alternative to heroic materialism.
0:41:35 > 0:41:38And that isn't enough.
0:41:38 > 0:41:40One may be optimistic,
0:41:40 > 0:41:48but one can't exactly be joyful at the prospect before us.